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Recipe for Disaster How climate change threatens British-grown fruit and veg
The Climate Coalition
This report marks the launch of The Climate Coalition’s annual
Show The Love campaign which aims to raise awareness of
climate change and all it threatens, and encourage people to
show their support for action to address it.
Acknowledgements
The Climate Coalition is the UK’s largest group of people
Editorial and production team
dedicated to action on climate change and limiting its impact
on the people, places, and life we love at home in the UK and
Tom Levitt, Clara Goldsmith, Jenny Wilson,
around the world, including the world’s poorest countries. The
Jessica Marsh, Rebecca Hawkins
coalition is made up of over 130 organisations with a combined
supporter base of 15 million, including WWF, National Trust,
Scientific contributors and advisors
RSPB, Christian Aid, CAFOD, The Women’s Institute, and Oxfam.
Together we want a future where the UK no longer contributes
Professor Piers Forster and Kate Sambrook, Priestley
to climate change, within a generation.
International Centre for Climate
Find out more at showthelove.org.uk
Thanks to
Rt Hon Michael Gove MP, David Drew MP, Hugh Fearnley-
Whittingstall, Raymond Blanc, Roger Hobson, Tim Benton, Matt
Smee, Tom Whitley, Lee Abbey, Thomasina Miers, Piers Forster,
Kate Sambrook, Nicola Cannon, Jack Ward, Minette Batters, Guy
Smith, Ceris Jones, Chris Daking, Barbara Bray, Mark Bowyer,
Priestley International Centre for Climate
Ali Capper, Rob Clayton, Nicola Dunn, Cedric Porter, Cameron
Roucher, Richard Thompson, Jonathan Scurlock, Tristram
Providing research to underpin robust and timely climate
Stuart, Joanna Vierod, Guy Watson, Tom Hunt, Kath Dalmeny,
solutions is the USP of the Priestley International Centre for
Carina Millstone, Caroline Drummond, Sarah Wakefield, Mike
Climate. The University of Leeds centre is unique in bringing
Childs, Angela Terry, Peter Chalkley, Liam Finn, Tom Stuart, Sean
together world leading expertise in all the key strands of climate
Mallon, Bronwen Smith-Thomas, Simon Billing, Andrew Child,
change research.
Lucy Bjorck, Robin Willoughby, Ed King, Martin Lines, Cheryl
Nicholson, Sophie Page, Melanie Coath, Leo Barasi, Rebecca
One of the University’s flagship strategic investments, the
Sharkey, Neil Thorns, Stephen Whitfield, Sam Hall, Jess Upton,
Priestley Centre aims to provide international solutions to the
David Warrilow, Iain Gale.
global challenge of climate change through new interdisciplinary
research partnerships that better link our physical, technological,
economic, and social understanding of climate change with
strategies for mitigation and adaptation.
Find out more at climate.leeds.ac.uk
Page 01 Page 02
02. 26.
Acknowledgements Why climate extremes could wipe out
growers: a view from Dr Nicola Cannon,
from the Royal Agricultural University
05.
Foreword and introductions 27.
05. Foreword by Hugh Fearnley-Whittingstall
07. David Drew MP The climate change risks facing UK fruit
08. Rt Hon Michael Gove MP and vegetables
09. Introduction by Raymond Blanc OBE
33. Heatwaves and drought
38. Pests, diseases and weeds
39. Extreme weather events
43. Case study: potatoes
11. 48. Case study: wine
Summary
49.
15. Saving British-grown fruit and vegetables:
what can we do?
Our love of British-grown fruits and 49. Reducing emissions
vegetables 51. Cutting food waste
58. Adaptation
62. Buying local, seasonal food
62. Eating more fruit and vegetables
61. Case study: How supermarkets are safe
17. guarding British-grown fruit and
vegetables, a view from Sarah Wakefield,
The what, how and where of UK fruit and food sustainability manager, Co-op
vegetable production
67.
19.
Conclusion: our call for action
Climate change and the UK: a view from
Kate Sambrook and Piers Forster, from
the Priestley International Centre for
Climate 69.
22. Heatwaves
23. Rainfall
References
Page 03 Page 04
Foreword
—Hugh Fearnley-Whittingstall
I am utterly convinced that eating more veg your bit. If you prioritise organic produce
and fruit is the best way to boost our own and limit your consumption of animal
health and that of our environment. And foods, you’re doing even more.
thanks to the hard work and ingenuity of
British farmers, even at this dark and chilly Farmers and food retailers have a major part
time of year, we can all still load up our to play too, of course, and there are some
plates with fantastic home-grown produce brilliant examples in this report of some
—from earthy roots and sweet squashes, to of them doing just that, working to ensure
crisp apples and lush, tasty greens. Seasonal that the food we eat is grown and brought
British produce never fails to please and it’s to our plates in the most sustainable way.
a simple matter to roast, blitz, spice, sauce Some are cutting carbon emissions; others
or soup these superb ingredients into are promoting local and seasonal produce,
delicious dishes. or helping to cut food waste by selling
so-called ‘wonky’ vegetables that would
But this ever-changing seasonal bounty is otherwise be dumped. We must support
under threat from climate change. As this them.
timely report from The Climate Coalition
shows, UK farmers are already struggling But climate change has to be tackled at the
to cope with the increasing frequency of very top. If we are to protect our fantastic
extreme and unpredictable weather, with British fruit and veg for future generations,
late frosts, droughts and heavy rainfall then the food industry and our Government
having a serious—sometimes devastating— have got to step up and make the kind
impact on crops. of major changes—reducing emissions,
cutting waste, supporting green energy, for
How do we address this alarming situation? example —that will have a profound effect.
The answer is we have to do all we can to This is how we’ll ensure that the delicious,
limit climate change. As luck would have it, healthy, homegrown produce we enjoy
that is a built-in consequence of sustainable, today is still available for our children and
ethical eating anyway. If you shop locally grandchildren. The alternative doesn’t bear
and eat seasonally you are already doing thinking about.
Page 05 Page 06
“Last year’s drought is indicative of the impact of climate change. Farming can only be made sustainable
if we prioritise improving soil qualities, water management, and encourage pollinators.
—David Drew MP, Shadow Minister, Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
I commend The Climate in the Agriculture Bill to
Coalition for highlighting the reward farmers who reduce
impacts of climate change on their emissions and adapt to
our world-leading horticultural the effects of climate change
sector. High-quality, locally- through our new Environmental
grown fruit and veg are a crucial Land Management scheme. We
component of British diets. are also taking steps to end the
Yet, as we saw with last year’s environmental, economic and
drought, this nutritious food, moral scandal of food waste
and the livelihoods of the hard- through our Resources and
working farmers who grow it, Waste Strategy.
are increasingly threatened
by more extreme weather and — Rt Hon Michael Gove MP
increased pests and diseases as
Secretary of State for Environment,
a result of climate change. Food and Rural Affairs
This Government is committed
to supporting fruit and
veg producers to meet this
challenge. We will use powers
Page 07 Page 08
“Locally sourced fresh fruit and
vegetables play a starring role in
many of our signature dishes and
are absolutely vital to the British
food industry. Without these
wonderful ingredients, like carrots,
strawberries and even the humble
potato, we would lose so many
incredible flavours and such variety
from our menus. It is really crucial
that we do everything we can to
protect these crops from climate
change. As chefs and restaurateurs,
we must step up and play our part:
reducing emissions, and wasting
less food, so that we can ensure
there’s enough good food for future
generations to enjoy.”
—Raymond Blanc OBE
President of the Sustainable Restaurant
Association
Page 09 Page 10
Summary The challenge for everyone—and not just
the food and farming sector—is to work to
reduce climate emissions to help protect
we love for future generations. While the
Our supplies of British-grown potatoes, vegetables and fruit are at risk UK’s greenhouse gas emissions were 43%
as growers struggle to cope with extreme and unpredictable weather, below 1990 levels in 2017, it is not currently
on track to meet its future targets, legally
made more likely by climate change. binding under the Climate Change Act
200815. The 2018 summer
heatwave was made
However, within the food sector, there are about 30 times more
New analysis released by The Climate provide us with fruit and vegetables face positive examples of farmers, food retailers likely than it would be
Coalition and the Priestley International greater climate risks—with more severe and restaurants working to reduce their
Centre for Climate says the UK can expect consequences for farmers in developing normally by climate
climate impact and safeguard British-grown
more frequent extreme weather events, countries, particularly Africa, South fruit and vegetable production. change
including longer-lasting and more intense America and the Caribbean13. Early 2017
heatwaves and a one in three chance of saw UK supermarkets suffering shortages Farmers have made new commitments to
record-breaking rainfall hitting parts of of courgettes and spinach and rationing reduce their climate emissions, with the
England each winter. The 2018 summer lettuce due to bad weather in Spain and NFU setting out an ambition in January
heatwave was made about 30 times more Italy. 2019 for UK farming to become net zero
likely than it would be normally by climate in its greenhouse gas emissions by 2040
change1. Professor Tim Benton, the UK’s former at the latest. Between 2014 and 2017, the
‘Food Security Champion’, said previously installation of renewable energy on-farm
The climate extremes of the past few optimistic-sounding forecasts now need to by NFU members grew from more than a
years—including the snowfall and freezing be re-evaluated. “My gut suspicion is we’re quarter of farmers and growers to nearly
temperatures of February and March in a regime that is much less reassuring two-fifths (39%)16. More than half of
2018 and one of the driest June months in than the older projections that we’ll benefit all farms in the UK
England and Wales since 19102—have been from longer growing seasons and carbon In the food retail and service sector, Tesco say they have been
devastating for UK fruit and vegetable dioxide.”14 has switched over to renewable electricity affected by a severe
farmers. More than half of all farms in the in its UK stores and aims to reduce the
UK say they have been affected by a severe The extreme and unpredictable weather climatic event in the
environmental impact of the average UK
climatic event, such as flooding or a storm has hit British growers hard. “This year made shopping basket by 50%17,18. Restaurant
past 10 years
in the past 10 years3. it seem like an impossible job. It’s really chain Wahaca has gone carbon neutral
hard work growing fruit and vegetables, and is boosting its vegetarian options
Apple growers lost around 25% of their but erratic and extreme weather pushes for customers19. “The strength of the
harvest in 2017 due to unexpectedly late you over the edge. I’d be devastated if I vegetarian dishes will become more and
frosts4,5. Carrot yields (down a reported had to deal with this year again,” said Matt more important for restaurants. We need
25-30%)6,7,8 and onion yields (reportedly Smee, co-founder of The Natural Veg Men, to eat less meat so we [restaurants] need
down 40% on a normal year)9 were a vegetable growing and delivery service to offer choices for people to do that,” said
hampered in 2018 by warmer than average in Cheshire. founder Thomasina Miers20.
temperatures. Potato yields were down
on average 20% in England and Wales in Lee Abbey, head of horticulture at the The British public is also ready to act. Three-
2018 compared to the previous season10, National Farmers’ Union (NFU), said, “A lot quarters of all respondents to a YouGov Over just three years,
making it the fourth smallest harvest since of growers will have come out of this year survey commissioned by The Climate the installation of
196011. For consumers, the lack of water with sore heads and not much income. Coalition said they would be willing to renewable energy
and extreme heat of 2018 was reported to Farmers and growers are used to dealing buy more misshapen fruit and vegetables, on farms by NFU
have cut more than one inch off the size of with fluctuations in the weather but if we while 62% would buy more locally-sourced
the average chip12. have two or three extreme years in a row members grew to
food and 57% more seasonal food to help
it has the potential to put growers out of achieve a more environmentally-friendly 39%
Other parts of Europe and countries which business.” diet21.
Page 11 Page 12
“A lot of growers will have come
out of this year with sore heads
and not much income. Farmers and
growers are used to dealing with
fluctuations in the weather but if we
have two or three extreme years
in a row it has the potential to
put growers out of business.”
— Lee Abbey, head of horticulture at the NFU
Page 13 Page 14
French chef Raymond Blanc called it .One of our most popular foods is British-
the British food revolution. Throwing off grown potatoes, which have been a part
a reputation for indifference towards of our diets for hundreds of years. Food
the origins of their dinner plate, British historian Colin Spencer says early potatoes
consumers want to know where their food were selling at a premium in the 18th
Chapter 01 comes from. And that extends to wanting to century —450g cost more than a labourer’s
be able to buy and eat food grown in the weekly wage—such was people’s relish for
UK, with 62% of UK adults saying they prefer eating the very first crop26. Around 15% of
to buy fruit and vegetables grown in the UK all meals include potatoes and potato crisps
Our love of to help achieve a more environmentally-
friendly diet, according to a YouGov survey
remain one of our favourite snacks27,28.
British-grown commissioned by The Climate Coalition22. Another favourite are carrots, which have
found their way into a number of popular
This love of British food has been captured British dishes, including carrot soup and
fruits and vegetables by the growing popularity of local food
markets, which allow producers to sell
carrot cake. It was no surprise to see Great
British Bake Off runner-up Ian Cumming
directly to consumers. In March 1998, tapping into that recipe with his colossal
there was only one farmers’ market in five-tier carrot cake in series 6 of the popular
England—in Bath. Today, there are more TV show.
than 600 registered with The Farm Retail
Association23. A more recent addition to the British food
and drink favourites has been English wine.
It is also reflected in the buying habits of A national body for winemakers was only
major supermarkets. Sainsbury’s vowed in established in 1967, but there are now more
2014 to double the amount of British food than 500 vineyards in England and Wales29.
it sold by 202024 while the Co-op is currently Together, they produce five million bottles
sponsoring the British Food Fortnight, a year, with another two million more on the
which started in 2002 in a bid to promote way on the back of new vines planted over
and celebrate buying and eating home- the past year30. The UK’s sparkling wine
produced food25 trade has enjoyed rapid growth in the last
five years with volume sales up 89%31.
While the UK’s climate makes it tough to
produce quality red wine, the south of
England has developed a reputation for
white and, in particular, white sparkling
wines. The Queen joined the trend by
planting a vineyard in the grounds of
Windsor Palace in 201032. In the last 16
years English sparkling wines have won
no fewer than 15 International Trophies in
global competitions33.
62% of respondents said
they would buy more
locally-sourced food*
Page 15 *Respondents from a YouGov survey for The Climate Coalition, January 2019 Page 16
Chapter 02
The what, how, and
where of British fruit
and veg production
The UK horticulture sector is comparatively The downside of so much of the UK’s fruit
small in terms of land use when set against and vegetable production being based
the arable and livestock sectors. The in the East and South of the UK is its
growing of fruit and vegetables takes up vulnerability to water shortages. With
around 3% of the cropped arable land in climate scientists now predicting stronger
the UK, but that is enough to provide more and longer-lasting heatwaves for the UK40,
than half (54%) of all the vegetables that we growers are faced with increasing risks to
eat in the UK34, producing £3.7billion worth their operations and survival.
of produce35.
The UK is around 60% self-sufficient in terms
of the food we eat being grown in Britain.
But for carrots (93%), peas (96%), cabbage The UK is one
(92%), strawberries (67%) and raspberries of the top
(62%) we are able to grow enough to meet 20 potato
the vast majority of demand in the UK producers in
throughout the year36.
the world
More than 95% of fruit and vegetable
production in the UK takes place in
England. The biggest growing area is the
East of England, including the counties
of Bedfordshire, Essex, Cambridgeshire,
Hertfordshire, Norfolk and Suffolk37.
More than 80% of 93% 96% 92% 67% 62%
all potatoes we eat
More than 80% of all the potatoes we eat are grown in the UK
are grown in the UK—now a £700m industry
in Britain—putting the country in the top 20
potato producers in the world38. The East
The UK grows 60% of
Midlands, East of England, Yorkshire and Potato production the food it eats
Humber and Scotland account for 75% of is a £700 million
all potato production. The creamy white industry in Britain
Maris Piper - great for chips, roast potatoes,
mash or wedges - remains the most popular
variety planted by growers in the UK39.
Page 17 Page 18Chapter 03
Climate change
and the UK
What can we expect? A view from
Kate Sambrook and Professor Piers
Forster, from the Priestley International
Centre for Climate
Page 19 Page 20temperature in England in the 2030s (top) and 2040s (bottom), relative to
1981-2000, using the high emissions scenario (RCP8.5). Results are shown
the likelihood of those temperatures occurring in the scenario. (Source:
Figure 1: UKCP18 projections of average daily maximum summer
at three percentiles: 10th (left), 50th (middle) and 90th (right), reflecting
Global average surface temperatures have
increased by 1°C since the 1850s and we are
already seeing the consequences around the world:
more extreme weather events such as floods and
heatwaves, rising sea levels and diminishing Arctic
sea ice are among some of the observed changes41.
The latest climate change projections over the UK
Met Office, 2018f)
for the 21st century show an increased chance of
milder, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers
along with an increase in the frequency and
intensity of extremes42.
Heatwaves:
Hotter, longer,
more often
During the past few decades, the UK emissions scenario (RCP8.5) show this is
has seen increases in high temperature likely to increase. By the 2030s, average
extremes43.The summer of 2018 daily maximum summer temperatures
was notable for its record-breaking could be up to 4°C warmer, and up to
temperatures, with 35.6°C recorded at 5°C warmer by the 2050s. The pattern of
Felsham (Suffolk).44 24°C was the average warming may not be the same everywhere,
maximum temperature across East Anglia with Southern England experiencing the
and South East England, where some largest changes (Figure 1).
places experienced 58 ‘dry days’ in a
row45,46. 2018 was the joint hottest summer Climate change has already made the 2018
on record for the UK (tied with those of record-breaking UK summer temperatures
1976, 2003 and 2006) and the hottest about 30 times more likely than they would
ever for England since records began in be normally49. If warming continues at its
191047. The prolonged dry spell affected current rate, heatwaves will become more
agricultural production across the country, intense and longer-lasting and by 2050
with significant reductions in onion and could occur every other year50. Heatwaves
carrot yields48. The 1981-2000 average with an average temperature of 40°C and
daily maximum summer temperature a duration of 50 days are likely to occur
in England ranged from 18 to 22°C. more frequently by 210051.
Projections by the Met Office under a high
Page 21 Page 22Rainfall:
Variable,
more extreme
Seasonal differences in in a new monthly record of with the largest decreases
rainfall are likely to present 219mm; 84% more rainfall in the South64. While there
risks to soils and agricultural than normal58. will still be wetter years, this
production, especially suggests that dry summers
in Eastern and Southern Extremely wet winters like like 2018 are likely to
England52. During the the winter of 2013-2014 become more probable in
past decade (2008-2017), and 2015/16 will become the future65. In combination
average annual rainfall in more common in the with higher temperatures,
England was 6% higher future59,60.Research on UK this could reduce the
than the level seen in extreme rainfall has found viability of some farming
1961-1990, with a marked that there is a one in three activities, due to increased
increase in winter.53 This is chance of record-breaking soil erosion, aridity and
likely to get worse in the rainfall hitting parts of water requirements66.
future, with a projected 20% England each winter
increase in average winter (October-March) . 61
The
rainfall by the 2030s, and largest number of extreme
up to 30-40% by the 2050s. rainfall events were found
The largest increases are in December, suggesting
shown to occur in Southern that wet winters like the
England, particularly around ones we have experienced
the coast (Figure 2). lately could occur more
frequently, increasing the
risk of major flooding on
Over the past 40 years, the farmland62.
intensity of winter rainfall in
England has also increased, With the majority of
with more frequent spells of agricultural production
exceptionally wet weather.54 occurring in regions with
The recent winters of 2013- limited water supplies, a
2014 and 2015-2016 were main concern for farmers
notable for their record- is a reduction in summer
breaking seasonal and rainfall63. Despite a small
monthly rainfall, which overall increase in England,
Figure 2: UKCP18 projections of winter rainfall anomaly changes in England for the
resulted in flooding in many future projections show 2030s (top) and 2040s (bottom) relative to 1981-2000, using the high emissions
parts of the country55. 2013- that this trend is unlikely scenario (RCP8.5). Results are shown at three percentiles: 10th (left), 50th (middle)
and 90th (right), reflecting the likelihood of those temperatures occurring in the
2014 was the wettest winter to continue. In the next 20 scenario. (Source: Met Office, 2018f)
on record for the UK, with a years, average summer
total of 545mm; 67% more rainfall could reduce by
than the annual winter up to 30% below average
average56,57. Persistent rain (1981-2000), and in the next
in December 2015, resulted 40 years by up to 50%,
Page 23 Page 24“If extreme weather events continue, there
Chapter 04 is a big risk that a run of challenging years
could prove too much for businesses to
Why climate sustain.”
extremes could
— Dr Nicola Cannon, Royal Agricultural University
wipe out specialist
fruit and vegetable Much of the UK was engulfed in blizzard
conditions and freezing temperatures
of them ran out of stored water as the dry
spell continued. Extreme weather
growers for nearly 10 days in early March 2018.
When temperatures finally rose and drier
conditions that affect saleable crop yield and
value can have severe impact on specialist
weather conditions prevailed, there was a growers (businesses which have invested in
big backlog of land preparation to catch up equipment around production of a specific
with, resulting in very late sowing/planting fruit/vegetable) if they fail to receive
dates for many crops. Sowing crops late sufficient income to pay the business costs.
immediately gives them a disadvantage; These growers are often the innovators of
they are still small when day lengths are the industry and have acquired debt to
greatest and therefore the plants are invest in technology, machinery and labour
less effective at capturing sunlight by to meet the market demands as well as
photosynthesis to generate energy and having to pay high land rental values for
growth. However, 2018 still held another their expanding businesses. Even though
sting in the tail for growers as the late spring
potato and many other fruit and vegetable
was immediately followed by very hot and values have seen high prices in 2018 in
dry conditions, which further inhibited plantmany cases, it is not sufficient to cover the
growth. shortfall in production. If extreme weather
events continue, there is a big risk that a run
Potatoes, a staple food crop in the UK, of challenging years could prove too much
reported low yields and some quality for the businesses to sustain.
issues. Many farmers did not start planting
potatoes until the first week in May when Many farmers and growers are already
normal planting dates are early-mid March- trying to plan to make their businesses more
April. Potatoes require a great deal of resilient to climate change and extreme
land preparation prior to planting, often weather events. Some strategies include
including ploughing, secondary cultivations new production techniques to conserve
and then bed formation. This intensive moisture, water storage, improved irrigation
cultivation regime quickly dried out soils application and greater monitoring of soil
due to unseasonably high temperatures moisture. A vital step for all growers is
recorded during planting. Potato growers enhancing soil organic matter so that soils
who did not have irrigation on their farms can better retain nutrients and cope with
suffered reduced growth due to moisture extreme rainfall events better by improved
A view by Dr. Nicola Cannon, stressed plants, resulting in low yields and water retention, which is then beneficial
Royal Agricultural University poor quality due to poor skin finish with when or if drought conditions develop.
small and cracked tubers. Growers with
irrigation fared somewhat better, but many
Page 25 Page 26“My gut suspicion is we’re now experiencing a regime that is much less reassuring than the
older projections that we’ll benefit from longer growing seasons and carbon dioxide. So
blocking patterns in summer (like this year) or winter (like the stream of severe winter storms in
2015-2016; or long cold-snaps) are likely to impede yields—even if in an average year yields might
notionally improve. Add in new pests and diseases, and more over-winter survival of pests and
diseases and I wouldn’t be complacent.”
— Professor Tim Benton, professor of population ecology at the University of Leeds, and the UK’s former ‘Food Security Champion’
There have been positive- of last year’s cold spring made by cutting the weather was “causing long-
Chapter 05
sounding news stories about and heatwave limiting crop potatoes, they are not term soil damage”.
global warming benefiting growth78. reformed so smaller
UK fruit and vegetable potatoes means smaller NFU Deputy President Guy
The climate risks production in terms of an
extended growing season.
“In season, the bulk of our chips because the length
vegetables come from UK is reduced,” said Cedric
Smith said, “The reason why
1976 was so damaging to
But extreme temperatures, growers. In a normal year Porter, editor of World yields was because of a dry
facing growers water availability, and new
pests and diseases pose a
you’d see British onions Potato Markets.
on the market for 48-50
1975. 2018 came after a wet
2017— and a wet spring in
major risk to growers76,77. weeks of the year. This year NFU President Minette 2018 too— so it could have
a higher proportion will be Batters called the heatwave been a lot worse. If we see
The past twelve months have imported,” said Jack Ward, and drought of the summer the patterns we are now
been a warning sign of what CEO of the British Growers of 2018 a “wake-up call”, seeing with a dry January
growers might face with a Association. saying it had caused then there won’t be residual
rise in frequency of extreme unpredictable crop yields rainfall in the soil for growers
weather events, due to Consumers have already and lower quality fruit this year.”
climate change. Farming had to deal with smaller and vegetable harvests79.
groups warned consumers potatoes and chips due While Ben Raskin, head
to expect smaller and fewer to the lack of water and of horticulture at the Soil
popular British vegetables extreme heat in 2018. Association, said as well as
including carrots, onions, “They were 3cm shorter on damaging individual crops,
potatoes and leeks, because average in the UK. Chips are extreme and unpredictable
Page 27 Page 28Climatic events and
their impacts on crops
Heavy Rainfall Drought Flooding
Waterlogged land prevents Reduced yields; increased Soil erosion; kills plants;
access and harvest; demand for irrigation but long-term yield loss and an
reduced yields; increased water supplies may not be increase in susceptibility of
disease risks available roots to disease
Heatwave Storms Frosts
Crop losses, reduced yield/ Loss of leaves/blossom; Warmer winters could
quality crop damage from hail hasten flowering in fruit
or wind; supply chain crops leading to greater
disruptions susceptibility to late spring
frosts
Taken from From WWF’s ‘Food in a warming world: The changing foods on the British plate’67, and ‘UK Fruit and
Page 29 Vegetable Production – impacts of climate change and opportunities for adaptation’68 Page 30Summary of what we know Summary of what we know
Production now heavily dependent on irrigation with
Potatoes
In 2017, apple growers reported losing around 20% of
Apples
their expected harvest due to a very late and severe frost rainfed production likely to be limited in the future. Growers
in May75. Production concentrated in the south of England reported smaller potato size and yields (down on average
which is predicted to see an increased frequency of 20% in England and Wales) after the summer heatwave
drought. of 201869. Also increased risk from pests and diseases
migrating and benefiting from warmer climate70.
Wine grapes
Late spring in April or May can damage vine shoots, as can
Strawberries & soft fruits
rainfall at flowering stage in July. Both will damage growth
and yields. Competition for water supplies. Between 70% and 80%
of tree fruit and soft fruit production takes place in areas
classified as being under water stress71. Heavily reliant on
irrigation but production is concentrated in areas of high
public, industrial and agricultural water demands. Less
water per capita in the south east of England than some
Flower quality and yields reduced by warmer winter parts of the Mediterranean. Abstraction rates in major fruit
Cauliflower
temperatures, with cauliflower varieties grown in UK growing areas (south, east and west Midlands) are already
requiring a colder overwinter. Expectation of more pests, unsustainable and set to rise by 30% by 205072. Milder
such as the diamond-back or cabbage moth, which do not winters may cause blackcurrant crops to flower later in the
currently survive UK winters in large numbers. year and produce less fruit73.
Late plantings in 2018 due to cold spell in spring. Growth
Onions
salad crops
restricted by higher summer temperatures. Yields for 2018
Lettuce &
Production mostly outdoors. Vulnerable to long periods were reportedly down 40% on 201774.
of drought especially around planting and early stages of
growth. Production likely to be hampered in the south and
east of England.
Carrots
Growth restricted by higher temperatures.
Page 31 Page 32Heatwaves
and droughts
Average UK temperatures have risen by industrial and agricultural water demands.
0.8°C over the last 40 years, with nine of They will have to compete with rising
the ten warmest years for the UK occurring competition and charges for using public
since 200280. The prolonged spell of hot water supplies and face possible restrictions
and dry weather in June and July across on abstraction in the summer83.
the UK saw the summer of 2018 become
the joint hottest on record. Between 70% and 80%
Average temperatures “Last year’s drought meant our of tree fruit and soft fruit
(15.6°C for the UK and costs of production went up production takes place in
17.2°C in England) were [higher water and labour costs] areas that are classified as
1.5°C above the long-term and the yield went down so we being under water stress.
average81. were left with less produce to Abstraction rates in major
sell. With the low winter rainfall fruit growing areas (south,
The higher summer that we’ve had so far, our east and west Midlands)
temperatures damaged reserves are not yet restored. are already unsustainable
the growth of onions and So as a grower do I commit to and set to rise by 30% by
carrots, whose optimum growing a crop that I don’t yet 205084,85.
temperature is lower. The have enough water for, or just
British Onion Producers’ plant what I have enough for, i.e. For all vegetable
Association said yields were less? Extreme weather events production in the East
down 40% on last year. The are not good for UK agriculture of the UK, any expected
reduced growth was worse as buyers will start to look benefits from an
because some growers elsewhere for supplies.” extended growing season
were up to six weeks late in will be counteracted
planting due to the ‘Beast Mark Bowyer, grower of herbs by reduced water
from the East’ cold weather and leafy vegetables across Sur- availability, particularly
spell in spring82. rey, Berkshire and Buckingham- given the competing
shire human and industrial
Strawberry growers in the water demands86. Even
UK are acutely at risk from those with irrigation
the current climate prediction is of more will be hit as these systems rely to a large
frequent spells of drought. Production extent on water abstraction on-farm, which
is now heavily reliant on irrigation, but is will be affected by reduced surface and
concentrated in areas of high public, groundwater87.
Page 33“All last year’s (2018) crops went in very wet and cold soil. We were 2-3 weeks behind. I’ve never
known it as late as this in 18 years working at this business. We lost probably £200,000-£250,000
worth of sale from those lost weeks. We could then only harvest minimal volumes to fulfill contracts
during the extreme heat. We rely on being able to produce UK crops for 26 weeks a year.
If this year’s extremes were to become year-to-year it would threaten our survival.”
— Chris Daking, a director at Valley Produce, one the UK’s biggest fresh herb producers
Page 35 Page 36Pests, diseases, and
weeds
The advent of milder winters and warmer fungus called Fusarium Basal Rot (FBR).
summers, more typical currently of some FBR is forecast to worsen with climate
other parts of Europe, will mean new pests change projections for warmer and wetter
and diseases spreading from warmer conditions91.
climates, faster growing weeds and the
likelihood of more plant pathogens The UK is currently the largest producer
surviving through the winter, and potentially and consumer of frozen peas in Europe, but
an increase in pesticide use88. scientists have warned that milder winters
will increase the risk from pests; like the pea
The hot weather of the summer of 2018 beetle whose range is expected to extend
brought increased incidence of pests for further north from France to the UK. Higher
all fruit and vegetable growers in the UK. temperatures and dry weather will also
The resistance of plants to attack can break bring risk of an increase in root disease and
down under temperature extremes, leading powdery mildew92.
to increased crop losses89.
Insect pollinators, particularly honeybees
British lettuce production was especially and wild bees, are vital to maximising yield
damaged by caterpillars last summer, and quality in a number of horticultural
with insects developing rapidly when crops producing fruit. With populations
temperatures are high and when they are under considerable pressure from other
not ‘knocked-back’ by periods of rainfall90. stressors such as parasites and pathogens,
it is hard to predict what the effect of the
In 2012, higher than normal temperatures combination of these factors and climate
in the UK were linked to £11million of losses change will be93.
for UK onion production from a soil-borne
Page 37 Page 38“This year made it seem like an
impossible job. It’s really hard work
growing fruit and vegetables, but
erratic and extreme weather
pushes you over the edge.”
— Matt Smee, co-founder of The Natural Veg
Men
Extreme The extreme rainfall in the
summer of 2007, winter of
late frosts and also cause
asynchrony with the normal
weather 2013-2014 and December
2015 saturated farmland,
pollinators, resulting in poor
fertilisation98. Over half
events causing high financial losses
for both fruit and vegetable
of all farms in the UK say
they have been affected
producers from crop loss by a severe climatic event
and waterlogged fields in the past 10 years99. The
that reduced yields94,95. The negative impacts on our
intense period of storms soils, water, vegetation
and rainfall between mid- and wildlife are likely to
December 2013 and be “significant”, according
February 2014 led to a to the UK’s Committee on
10% reduction in yield for Climate Change100.
potatoes and root crops96.
“This year made it seem
Aside from flooding, like an impossible job. It’s
other extreme weather really hard work growing
risks include late spring fruit and vegetables, but
frost, severe drought or erratic and extreme weather
prolonged soil wetness, all pushes you over the edge.
of which may cause crop I’d be devastated if I had to
failure or a substantial deal with this year again,”
reduction in yield and said Matt Smee, co-founder
quality of both fruit and of The Natural Veg Men,
vegetable crops97. Earlier a vegetable growing and
flowering time might make delivery service in Cheshire.
crops more vulnerable to
Page 39 Page 40“In August 2015, a five-minute
hailstorm with a mini tornado
destroyed my entire crop of
apples. The crop was almost
ready to be picked and then within
a few days of the hail the entire
crop was rotten.”
— Ali Capper, chair of NFU horticulture board
Page 41 Page 42Chapter 06
Potato is number one
Case study: in the top 10 most
wasted food & drink
Potatoes items in UK homes
(that could have been
eaten)101
Outdoor crops such as potatoes are Aside from water, the biggest threats
particularly sensitive to changes in rainfall, to growers are pests and diseases. The
temperature and soil. Potatoes are a water- roundworm pest potato cyst nematode By the 2050s, the area
thirsty crop so rainfed production is likely toalready causes losses of approximately £50 of land that is currently
be severely limited in the future in the UK. Bymillion per year to UK growers. That figure well suited for potatoes
the 2050s, the area of land that is currently is predicted to rise with the pest benefiting
well-suited for potatoes would decline by from warmer soil and air temperatures due
will decline by 74%
74% under climate projections102. However, to climate change. UK growers have, up
getting approval for irrigation will be until now, escaped the deadly Colorado
limited, with 43% of growers on catchments Potato Beetle which can destroy the entire
defined as being over-licensed or over- crop. Although widespread in continental
abstracted103. Europe, there have been only a few UK
cases. But with a warmer climate it is feared
The combination of sub-zero temperatures this beetle will become a much greater pest
in the early months of 2018, followed by a for UK producers108.
wet spring and the summer heatwave saw a
3% fall in the area planted with potatoes last “Un-irrigated potatoes really suffered
year104. The combination of late planting this year so in the future I suspect we’ll
and stalled tuber growth due to the hot and see a reduction if the extreme droughts
dry weather led to a 20% drop in the total are repeated. In 2018, it was meeting
harvest of potatoes in 2018 in Great Britain specification (size and skin finish) that has
compared to the previous season105. been the issue. The supply chain has been
able to relax specification to accommodate
It was the fourth smallest potato harvest what has been produced, but if the quality The roundworm pest
since 1960, with only 1975, 1976 and is low buyers could start to look elsewhere,”
potato cyst nematode
2012 smaller106. While 1975 and 1976 said Dr Nicola Dunn, scientist at the
were exceptionally dry years, growers Agricultural & Horticultural Development already causes losses
were affected by persistent and prolonged Board. of approximately
rainfall around the growing and harvesting £50million per year The combination of late
periods in 2012107. There are now concerns about how potato to UK growers planting and stalled tuber
growers will fare this year, according to growth due to the hot and
“Growers were battling a shortage of water Cedric Porter, editor of World Potato dry weather led to a 20%
this year; the combined June and July Markets. “People are worried about the drop in the total harvest
period was one of the driest on record,” winter so far as we’ve had a dry January,
of potatoes in 2018 in
said Sector Strategy Director at AHDB especially on the eastern side where most
Potatoes, Dr Rob Clayton. “We won’t run potatoes are grown. The danger is when we Great Britain compared to
out of potatoes. We didn’t in 2012, and now have the rain. We don’t want it in the the previous year
we won’t in 2018. But what consumers will growing season in March or April; we need
notice is a wider range of shapes and sizes it over the next month or so,” he said.
in the bag they bring home to cook with.”
Page 43 Page 44“The exceptionally cold and
late spring meant the crop went
in late and then we suffered
torrential rain in late May that
caused severe erosion in some
fields and lost crops. That was
followed by the prolonged
heatwave, which meant yields
were down 20-25%. I’ll be
reducing my acreage next year
because I can’t afford to take
the risk of planting more
potatoes.”
— Richard Thompson, potato grower,
Staffordshire
Page 45 Page 46“Warm weather at the tail end of
winter when you’re not expecting
it gets the vine shoots growing
when they should normally be shut
down.”
— Cameron Roucher, Rathfinny Estate
When it comes to the “Some producers may have
Chapter 07
burgeoning English wine lost half their crop from it,”
industry, the UK is at the says Cameron Roucher,
climate margins of suitability estate manager of the
Case for viticulture. There has
been an expectation that
Rathfinny Estate,
Sussex. “Warm weather at
East
global warming will make it the tail end of winter when
study: possible to regularly ripen
grapes in a UK climate.
you’re not expecting it gets
the vine shoots growing
Wine Parts of England are now
enjoying the climate that
when they should normally
be shut down. If you then
the Champagne region of get a late frost it really
north-east France did 20 messes them up.”
years ago109. The climate
in the southeast and south
central UK has reliably
exceeded a 13°C growing
season temperature since
the early 1990s.
For UK growers, the
unseasonal spring frost
in late March 2017 was
particularly devastating. It
had followed a period of
warmer weather meaning
vine shoots had started to
grow and were therefore
particularly vulnerable.
Some vineyards reported
up to 75% of crops being
damaged by late spring
frosts in 2017110.
Page 47 Page 48Chapter 08
Everyone has to do their bit
Saving British fruits
and vegetables:
what can we do?
The growing interest from consumers, retailers and
chefs in sourcing British ingredients has been a boon to
fruit and vegetable growers. But if this British success
story is going to continue, then everyone—and not just
the food industry —will need to do their bit to reduce
their climate impact to help protect British-grown fruit
and vegetable production.
As well as adapting and making their farms more
resilient to climate change, there are some brilliant
examples of the work that farmers and food retailers
are doing to reduce climate emissions and promote
British-grown produce. This has included installing
renewables, increased woodland planting, prioritising
the sourcing of local and seasonal produce, and helping
to cut food waste by selling so-called wonky vegetables
that would otherwise be dumped. 62% 57% 75%
Willing to Willing to Willing to
Consumers are also ready to do their bit.Three-quarters buy more buy more buy more
of respondents to a YouGov survey commissioned by local food seasonal misshapen
food food
The Climate Coalition said they would be willing to
buy more misshapen fruit and vegetables, 62% more
locally-sourced food and 57% more seasonal food to
help achieve a more environmentally-friendly diet111.
Page 49 Page 50its climate advisors in renewables among NFU Across the retail and agroforestry to reduce
This enables growers
Reducing October 2018 for advice on members grew from more food service sector there climate emissions121. Theto reduce their use of
setting a date for achieving than a quarter of farmers have been investments in Soil Association has set a
energy-intensive and
climate net zero greenhouse gas and growers to nearly reducing climate emissions. target of agroforestry onenvironmentally-harmful
emissions from across two-fifths (39%). “Farm Tesco has switched over to 50% of all farms by 2030122,
inputs. There are also plans
emissions the economy, including businesses are seeing the renewable electricity for all with the Committee on to develop carbon neutral
transport, industry and benefits of contributing to its stores and distribution Climate Change having farms in the UK, where
farming.115 the decarbonising of the centres in the UK, with a highlighted afforestation
emissions are minimised
economy and diversifying long-term plan to be zero- as a key contributor to the
and offset through on-
In January 2019, the NFU their income streams carbon by 2050119. The UK meeting its climate farm energy generation
The food system in the UK set out its aspiration for through renewable energy renewables push helped the targets123,124,125. Organic
including biogas and solar
contributes around 19% UK farming to become net production,” said Dr UK’s biggest supermarket vegetable delivery company
panels or agroforestry
of our total emissions, with zero in its greenhouse gas Jonathan Scurlock, Chief chain reduce its operational Riverford has a seven-acre
and the planting of trees
40% of those originating emissions by 2040 at the Adviser, Renewable Energy emissions by 13% in 2017120. agroforestry site on its farm
to absorb carbon127,128,129.
from agriculture112. But latest. “It’s ambitious. I see it and Climate Change at the Sainsbury’s cut its emissions in Devon mixing fruit trees
David Drew MP, shadow
meeting the UK’s 2050 as us continuing to produce NFU. The most popular by 8% in 2017. and vegetable crops. DEFRA Minister, said, “This
target to reduce emissions food in this country, but that is solar PV, installed by year’s drought is indicative
by at least 80% of 1990 is sustainable in the future,” nearly one-third of NFU The supermarket Waitrose On-farm, the government of the impact of climate
levels will require reductions said NFU president Minette members.117 The rising has helped to support a has made much of the change and a reminder of
from across the economy113. Batters116. An increasing numbers of electric cars— network of farmers and value of so-called precision the need to recognise how
Those targets will also need number of farmers and and tractors soon—on the researchers working farming, where technology farming can only be made
to be accelerated in light growers across the UK road could also create together on ideas to help is used to enable targeted sustainable if we prioritise
of the Paris Agreement to are already investing in opportunities for farmers reduce the climate impact of use of chemical inputs like improving soil qualities,
pursue efforts to limit global renewables. Between 2014 to host battery charging farming, including switching fertilisers126. water management and
warming to 1.5°C114. The UK and 2017, the uptake of stations, say the NFU. to cover crops, reducing encourage pollinators.”
government asked fertiliser use and trialling
Page 51 Page 52Cutting Large quantities of the UK’s fruits and
vegetables are thrown away before they
horticulture at the NFU. In response to food
waste campaigns, a number of retailers
food reach our dinner plates. This comes at a huge
climate cost, with food waste responsible for
have also started selling more imperfect
produce, so-called wonky fruit and
waste 8% of global greenhouse gas emissions130.
In Europe, the climate change impact of
vegetables. Tesco claims to have sold more
than 15,000 tonnes of ‘perfectly imperfect’
growing wasted food is equivalent to the fruit and veg in the UK and removed best
carbon emissions of almost 400,000 cars131. before dates from more than 180 products
Fruit and vegetables already have the to help stop edible foods, including apples,
highest wastage rates of any food because being thrown away before necessary137.
of their perishability - estimated at more
than 30% across the UK and Europe132. Away from fields and supermarket shelves,
there is
Food can be lost at farm level due to climatic a huge
damage such as heavy rainfall or pests amount of
and disease. But more than one-third of waste by the
farmed fruit and vegetables never reaches food service
Image credit: Feedback
supermarket shelves largely because it is sector and
misshapen or the wrong size133. Farmers consumers.
contracted to supermarkets typically grow One million
more food than they are obliged to supply tonnes of
to allow for a proportion that they know will food is
be deemed to be unfit to sell. wasted every
year by the
Growers are very much at the mercy of hospitality and food service sectors138. UK
supermarket buying decisions. Kent-based households are binning £13billion worth of
grower Geoff Philpott reported 100,000 edible food each year, with incorrect storage
cauliflowers going to waste after his buyer a major reason139. In the food service sector,
dramatically reduced their order at the same more than 900 JD Wetherspoon pubs across
time as a big glut occurred134. Following a the UK are sending zero waste to landfill,
Feedback campaign to bring Geoff’s story with food waste segregated and sent for
to public attention, several supermarkets anaerobic digestion140. Ice cream company
including Tesco and Aldi committed to Ben & Jerry’s use their own food waste to
marketing cauliflowers during the glut, to fuel a biodigester at their European factory
absorb some of the surplus produce. Tesco in Hellendoom, the Netherlands - meeting
sold 220,000 extra cauliflowers at 79p each around half the factory’s annual energy
and Aldi sold 500,000 extra cauliflowers at requirements141.
29p each—a total of 720,000 cauliflowers
saved135,136. A restaurant in Brighton, Silo, has proclaimed
itself the UK’s first zero-waste food outlet
The majority of the UK’s supermarkets through a combination of recycling,
responded to the extreme weather of 2018 composting food scraps and deliveries
by lowering standards to prevent food taken in reusable containers direct from
waste and keep up supplies of British- producers. It also brews its own beer in the
grown produce. “Reports of the crop being basement142. And in Bristol, a consumer
smaller with blemishes and skin defects awareness campaign managed to achieve
would normally mean it wouldn’t meet a 16% rise in food waste recycling rates
supermarket specifications to make sure among local residents143.
they could sell as much British produce as
possible,” said Lee Abbey, head of
Page 53 Page 54“I see a huge uptake in public awareness and a big investment in companies
tackling food waste. The hope lies in the fact that in a short space of time
food waste has gone from a non-issue to a place where you cannot
be a big company without having a food waste strategy.”
— Tristram Stuart, food waste campaigner, author of ‘Waste’, and founder of ‘Toast Ale’
which makes beer from surplus bread
900,000 meals end up in
the bin at the end of the
day because they haven’t
been sold145
Food waste is
responsible for
8% of global
In the spotlight: greenhouse gas
emissions130
Rubies in the
Rubble £13billion worth
of edible food is
thrown out by UK
Rubies in the Rubble creates ketchups, chutneys and
households each
other condiments from surplus fruit and veg that would year 146
otherwise go to waste. They partner with farms in the UK
to buy surplus wonky veg that the supermarkets don’t
want. By the end of 2018 Rubies had saved nearly 4.5
million fruit and vegetables from going to waste on British
farms144. However, even Rubies has seen supply affected 1.4 million bananas are
due to extreme weather. “Harvests and yields have been thrown out every day147
worse than usual over the past year which has resulted in
fewer surplus crops for us to use and the quality has been
less usable than previous years,” said Joanna Vierod, Head
of Retail at Rubies in the Rubble.
Page 55 Page 56Adaptation
British growers are already trying to plan to to combat pest outbreaks and boost
make their farms more resilient to climate pollinator numbers152.
change and extreme weather events, with
water shortages highlighted as a particular An alternative to traditional outdoor fruit
problem area in the UK’s most recently and vegetable production is vertical
published climate adaptation strategy. The farming. It offers the prospect of more
strategy promises to work to restore natural efficient use of land and water, greater
processes within river systems to enhance control against pests and, if indoors, greater
water storage capacity and reduce water resilience to extreme weather and climate
leakages148. change153. However, indoor farms require
a replacement for sunlight, with lettuces
Solutions being trialled by growers include grown in a vertical farm reported to need
installing new production techniques fourteen times more energy than those
to conserve moisture, water storage, grown in a traditionally heated greenhouse
improved irrigation application and greater in the UK154.
monitoring of soil moisture, said Dr Nicola
Cannon, Royal Agricultural University. “A
vital step for all growers is enhancing soil
organic matter so that soils can better retain
nutrients and cope with extreme rainfall
events better by improved water retention,
which is then beneficial when or if drought
conditions develop,” she added.
Many potato farmers are installing reservoirs
to give their crops a supply of water during
droughts and shortages. Potato supplies to
major chip and crisp brands McCain, Tyrrells
and Walkers have been safeguarded in
the past with the use of reservoirs149. “We
encourage farmers to look at the option
of building on-site storage reservoirs to
reduce the need for water abstraction,”
said a spokesperson for the Environment
Agency. Producers can also experiment
with alternative varieties, such as drought-
tolerant peas, which may be more resilient
to the effects of climate change150.
Improving soils, more varied rotations,
addition of dedicated habitat such as pollen
and nectar mixes and reservoirs designed
with nature in mind benefit wildlife too151.
This can potentially help boost production
by providing reservoirs of natural predators
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