RENEW NSRP Executive Housing Market - Newcastle-Under ...

Page created by Hugh Pope
 
CONTINUE READING
RENEW NSRP Executive Housing Market - Newcastle-Under ...
RENEW NSRP Executive Housing Market

September 2010

Prepared for                                Arc4 contact

Joanne Tyzzer, Darren Jones, Brian Davies   David Cumberland /
North Staffordshire Regeneration            Ross Tolmie-Thomson
Partnership                                 Arc4 Ltd
Renew North Staffordshire                   Beehive Mill
Stoke City Council                          Jersey Street
                                            Ancoats
                                            Manchester
                                            M4 6JG

email: joanne.tyzzer@stoke.gov.uk           Tel    +44 (0) 161 228 1689
                                            email
                                            david.cumberland@arc4.co.uk
                                            ross.tolmie-thomson@arc4.co.uk
RENEW NSRP Executive Housing Market - Newcastle-Under ...
4
arc
Beehive Mill
Jersey Street
Ancoats
Manchester
M4 6JG
T: 0161 228 1689
F: 0161 228 6514
Email: contact@arc4.co.uk
Website: www.arc4.co.uk

Contents

arc4 RENEW NSRP Executive Housing Market Research Sept 2010   2 of 80
RENEW NSRP Executive Housing Market - Newcastle-Under ...
Section 1.0       Report Overview                                      4
                  Introduction                                         4

Section 2.0       Methodology                                          7
                  Current Executive Housing Market                     8
                  Future Executive Housing Market                      9
                  Research Framework                                   9

Section 3.0       Executive Housing Market Definition                 12

Section 4.0       Executive Housing Market Assessment                 14
                  Current Executive Housing Market                    14
                  Current high-end property market context            17
                  Wider Housing Reference Area                        22

Section 5.0       Strategic Policy context for housing delivery       25

Section 6.0       Demand for Executive Housing                        31
                  Household income and ACORN profiles                 31
                  Demographic and population projections              33
                  Changes in employment and incomes                   37

Section 7.0       Primary Fieldwork                                   38
                  Estate agent testimonies                            38
                  Focus group attitudes and aspirations               43
                  Developer perceptions                               45

Section 8.0       Current supply of new build executive housing       48

Section 9.0       Developing an executive housing market              50

Section 10.0      Conclusions                                         56
                  Including recommendations                           63

Appendices                                                            65

arc4 RENEW NSRP Executive Housing Market Research Sept 2010       3 of 80
Section 1
Report overview

1.1     Introduction

1.1.1   Arc4 Ltd. has been commissioned by RENEW and NSRP to undertake an assessment of the
        Executive Housing Market (EHM) in the North Staffordshire regeneration Partnership (NSRP)
        area, including the local authorities of Stoke, Newcastle-under-Lyme and Staffordshire
        Moorlands. The assessment framework is split into two distinctive areas: a review of the
        current EHM in terms of housing supply and demand profiles, then secondly an assessment
        of the future EHM in terms of market demand and developer potential. Stakeholder and
        consumer consultation has been an important component of this research, which ensures a
        wide range of views and expertise is captured in the research.

1.1.2   Under the aegis of the NSRP Business Plan, there is a priority within the housing and
        regeneration frameworks to diversify the stock profile. Limited supply of high value executive
        housing assets (properties in the higher Council Tax bands G and H) is weakening the
        housing offer. Testing the housing markets appetite for increasing the supply of properties in
        tax bands E to H will feature heavily in the assessment process.

1.1.3    In summary this research

        •    Provides a definition of an executive housing market and the attributes of an exclusive
             housing product
        •    Explores the size and profiles of the current executive housing market in North
             Staffordshire
        •    Provides material on future executive housing aspirations based on market testing of the
             demand group and housing agents
        •    Reviews the potential for future executive housing delivery across the district based on
             developer and local planning authority perspectives.
1.1.4   There is a requirement to produce an evidence-based, focussed review of
        opportunities and identify issues pertaining to the suitability of developing executive housing
        on land both owned and identified with potential for this supply type.

1.1.5   The adopted Newcastle-under-Lyme and Stoke-on-Trent Core Spatial Strategy outlines that
        in order to achieve the strategic aims both regionally and sub-regionally, substantial
        restructuring of the employment and residential offer in North Staffordshire is required.
        Although the Regional Spatial Strategy has been abolished, Stoke City Council are still
        working to the same housing growth numbers as before, since they have been included
        within the Core Strategy and were arrived at through thorough research of the evidence
        base.

1.1.6   The latest available indicators suggest that the existing provision for the executive market is
        limited in North Staffordshire, specifically so within the city of Stoke-on-Trent. As outlined by
        the RENEW North Staffordshire Regeneration Partnership Business Plan 2008 – 2011, the
        sub region has a constrained supply of high-end market housing and the imbalance of
        housing supply is closely allied to the socio-economic profile and under performance of the
        area in retaining and attracting economically independent households.

arc4 RENEW NSRP Executive Housing Market Research Sept 2010                                         4 of 80
1.1.7    The latest Strategic Housing Market Assessment identified Stoke-on-Trent as a unique
         market in continuing to suffer population loss, in particular to neighbouring authorities
         Newcastle-under-Lyme and Staffordshire Moorlands (SHMA 2008). A contributory factor is
         the limited residential offer across the spectrum of the housing market, one of the main
         SHMA recommendations identifying the requirement for ‘more executive housing in the
         housing sectors shown to be disproportionately dominated by terraced dwellings’.

1.1.8    One of the principal objectives of the RENEW North Staffordshire Regeneration Partnership
         Business Plan 2008 – 2011 in recognising the limited housing choice, is to provide a
         diversified residential offer. Providing the right type of dwellings, in the right location and
         environment will be key to addressing and reversing the trend of net population loss. An
         important factor for competitiveness in the knowledge economy is the extent to which places
         have a skilled, creative and entrepreneurial workforce. Employers will choose to locate partly
         on the basis of where this workforce is located and therefore the residential offer must be
         closely aligned with the aspirations of economically independent households.

1.1.9    We note that ‘top end of the market’ executive housing can also have a further significant
         impact on the economy. The evidence suggests that residents of executive housing include a
         high proportion of entrepreneurs, with a consequent high level of business start-ups. This
         leads to establishment of new employment opportunities, often in locations convenient to the
         home of the entrepreneur.

1.1.10   One of the NSRP Business Plan priorities, in providing a portfolio of high quality/specification
         detached houses or luxury apartments, seeks to meet the aspirations of existing and future
         residents on higher incomes, both in the interests of greater social inclusivity and to remove
         a barrier to the pursuit of economic prosperity. A broader housing choice is essential to
         accommodate the changing aspirations of the resident population and to retain graduates
         and attract new economically active households into the area.

1.1.11   Current housing supply throughout areas of Stoke-on-Trent, Newcastle-under-Lyme and
         Staffordshire Moorlands, reflect an earlier pattern of economic structure and development
         that does not meet the current, nor future needs, for a balance of dwellings types and choice
         and the need to develop mixed communities.

1.1.12   Much of the offer within the constituent authorities competes for skilled workforce and
         economically independent households with a limited residential offer. Issues of deprivation,
         worklessness and social exclusion are inextricably linked with poor quality housing and less
         desirable environments. Therefore, an improved residential offer and quality of place is
         essential to the creation of mixed and balanced communities and fundamental to improving
         the economic performance of the area (RENEW NSPR BP).

1.1.13   Creating sustainable, mixed communities coupled with high design quality and place making
         is a key part of the Government’s approach to housing and planning policy going forward.
         Providing a quality residential offer is not about ‘gentrification’ alone, but about creating
         quality places through new development and interventions in existing neighbourhoods to
         provide a range of house types and tenures. It is the aim of RENEW and the NSRP that
         opportunities are identified to address the need for provision of a broader mix of housing
         supply across the intervention areas in the sub region.

1.1.14 This research provides an intelligence report examining the issues around the provision of
       executive housing and developing a meaningful definition framed within a North Staffordshire
       context. The report provides an examination of both the local and regional housing market (in

arc4 RENEW NSRP Executive Housing Market Research Sept 2010                                        5 of 80
terms of depth of the potential market) and the planning supply context for the provision of
        executive housing. The report focuses in particular at recent experience of developing
        executive housing framed in the context of the local potential market demand, competing
        sites, migration, travel to work patterns, sales performance and land/site supply.

1.1.15 Our perspective is holistic. We do not see development and the supply of housing in
       isolation. As such, we have examined the objectives of recent spatial planning policy at both
       the (now abolished) Regional Spatial Strategy and emerging Local Development Framework
       levels. This research paper looks to test the potential demand and requirement for larger
       executive developments within North Staffordshire.

1.1.16 Much has changed in the national and regional arenas since this report was commissioned,
       including the election of the Coalition Government and its abolition of whole swathes of
       regional governance including the Regional Development Agencies, Regional Assemblies
       and planned regional Leaders’ Boards, together with Regional Spatial Strategies. Further
       clarity around the new Local Economic Partnerships and the extent of their remit is awaited.

arc4 RENEW NSRP Executive Housing Market Research Sept 2010                                      6 of 80
Section 2
Methodology

2.1     Methodology

2.1.1   The research methodology has been mainly desk-based, with primary input from discussions
        with the client on previous work and telephone interviews with local agents and relevant
        development stakeholders with specific delivery experience within this market. These include
        officers from the local authority planning departments, developers (both specialist and
        mainstream), estate and land agents. Linkages have also been drawn from feedback
        received from the focus group work undertaken as part of the wider contract brief.

2.1.2   Stage I – Strategic policy context for housing delivery in North Staffordshire.

        Note that in this report, unless specifically stated otherwise, the description “North
        Staffordshire” is used to refer to the three Local Authorities that comprise the NSRP.

        Consolidation and review of literature outlining strategic planning policy for housing delivery
        in North Staffordshire, draws on the Local Development Frameworks, the (now abolished)
        Regional Economic, Housing and Spatial Strategies and findings of the Strategic Housing
        Market Assessment (SHMA). This is supplemented by a critique of the underlying vision for
        residential development in North Staffordshire.

        It is important that this analysis is provided in the context of the wider economic climate and
        the likely impact upon development of any kind going forward. A shift in market conditions
        and economic fundamentals has called into question the established development
        framework that operated previously, shown to be dependent upon the availability of credit for
        development and mortgage liquidity. Development across all market tenures now operates in
        a constrained marketplace, therefore it is important that the research draws clear links to the
        economic model update work for North Staffordshire being undertaken simultaneously by
        Experian. Consideration of the wider economic environment will provide an indication of
        potential quantum and viability for selected sites.

2.1.3   Stage II - Demand side trends

        Market research of the local and sub-regional household profiles and secondary data
        analysis to establish a target market definition, the potential pool of demand and its share of
        the overall market. We have analysed population and household projections, migration and
        travel-to-work patterns, including identifying key local employers identified as sources of
        potential target market for this housing, demographic and household change and the findings
        of the latest Strategic Housing Market Assessment. This provides the context on the current
        and future demand profile for proposed executive housing development in North
        Staffordshire.

2.1.4   Stage III – Supply side trends and review of the experience and impact of executive housing
        development elsewhere

        In this stage we examine historic completion rates by type of property (including new build
        and conversions), outlining the relatively narrow supply within North Staffordshire in recent
        years compared to neighbouring locations. This analysis includes discussions with the

arc4 RENEW NSRP Executive Housing Market Research Sept 2010                                        7 of 80
respective planning departments to identify sources of existing property stock with potential
        for delivering executive type housing.

        We undertook an examination of future supply to ascertain competing areas and
        developments through the SHLAA process, National Land Use Database schedule, Five
        Year Land Supply and current outstanding permissions data.

        Desk-based, case study review of experience and impact of executive housing development
        in comparable housing markets. We appreciate that a comparable market to North
        Staffordshire may not exist explicitly, however the key success factors can be identified from
        executive housing development case studies and an analysis provided of the factors to be in
        place to underpin development of this type in the North Staffordshire market.

        This element primarily aims to consolidate understanding and provision of a workable
        definition of executive housing in the North Staffordshire context. We have undertaken
        previous analysis of executive housing case studies and are well aware that this does not
        necessarily include volume-built, higher-end detached market housing. As noted above,
        provided the right location and environment, executive housing may include;

                 •   Mix of bespoke detached properties at low density ie, Wynard, Stockton-on-Tees
                 •   Individual architect designed properties ie, Tutti Frutti Urban Splash, Manchester
                 •   Self build developments ie, Ashley Vale, Bristol
                 •   Environmentally sustainable developments ie, Accordia, Cambridge; Upton,
                     Northampton; Great Bow Yard, Somerset
                 •   New build period townhouses ie, The Square, York

2.1.5   Stage IV – Site locations and agent interviews

        Analysis of the strategic potential sites is supplemented with local agent interviews
        examining the aspirations of those purchasing executive housing and areas of search for
        such housing to understand the depth of the potential market.

2.2     Current Executive Housing Market

2.2.2   The first phase of the assessment investigates the extent of housing in the North
        Staffordshire sub-region, which fits the broad definition of an Executive product. Several
        secondary data sources were used to identify the extent of high property values and high
        incomes. This has included:
                 •   Council Tax banding information for 2008 (based on property valuations at
                     1991);

                 •   Land registry property sale values;

                 •   Household Income 2008 (Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings).

2.2.3   The following variables are identified; the proportions of properties in Band ‘E to H’, property
        values ‘£350-500k, £500k-£750k, £750+’ and household incomes of ‘£900+pw and £1k+pw’.
        Where data is available, results have been analysed on a number of geographical scales:

                 •   Address level

arc4 RENEW NSRP Executive Housing Market Research Sept 2010                                        8 of 80
•    Postcode sector
                 •    Lower SOAs
                 •    Wards

2.2.4   This information has been triangulated to produce a series of maps and tables identifying the
        spatial extent of the current executive housing markets and the numbers in the market.

2.2.5   The second phase of the assessment has involved identifying households from the ASHE
        data 2008 who command sufficient incomes and access to equity or savings, therefore form
        the primary target market for property deemed to be of executive housing standard. Detailed
        analysis of the selected market profile looks at the current property and household
        characteristics.

2.2.6   The third phase of the assessment was to define distinctive market typologies through a
        process of qualitative and quantitative methods (see definition of executive housing below).
        This process brings together selective property and household characteristics to define
        executive housing products and demand behaviour.

2.2.7   A number of variables were used to develop market typologies. A series of profiles or short
        case studies have been developed to illustrate these typologies with the context of North
        Staffordshire and its surrounding area. A number of case study examples from a range of
        national perspectives are provided in section 9.

2.3     Future Executive Housing Market

2.3.2   It is essential that the proposed market typologies are rigorously tested with housing
        practitioners, who have a practical understanding of high value housing markets. A series of
        interviews, market area observations, and discussions with a range of stakeholders has
        taken place to test the emerging findings.

2.3.3   Aspirations for future development from the housing supplier and planning control
        perspectives state the requirements necessary for future executive housing.

2.4     Research Framework

2.4.2   Our research approach is structured as follows and has been split into sections for ease of
        access.

 Section                     Topic                                          Background review
 Stage 1                     Strategic policy context for housing
                             delivery in Stoke-on-Trent
 Review of existing plans    •   Examination of latest regional and local   •   RSS, The Regional
 and strategies                  planning strategy;                             Economic Strategy,
                             •   Examination of latest regional and local       NSRP Business Plan
                                 economic strategy;                             2008-11; SHMA, Stoke-
                             •   Adopted Stoke-on-Trent and Newcastle-          on-Trent AMR,
                                 under-Lyme Core Strategy; Staffordshire        Newcastle under Lyme
                                 Moorlands Submission Core Strategy.            AMR, Staffordshire
                                                                                Moorlands AMR,

arc4 RENEW NSRP Executive Housing Market Research Sept 2010                                       9 of 80
RENEW AMR 2008/09.

                             What is the existing position?
                             •  Where are the high value dwellings               •   Land Registry house
                                located?                                             price indices;
                             •  Executive housing supply in the planning         •   Council Tax Register;
                                pipeline ie, benefit of detailed consent?        •   Mapping correlation of
                             •  How do the constituent local authorities             properties and earners
                                stand in valid comparison within NSHMA               at ward and / or output
                                and to adjacent markets?                             area geographies;
                             •  Where do current high earners live?              •   Latest NSHMA;
                             •  Correlation between the two                      •   ONS neighbourhoods;
                                                                                 •   Supply pipeline data;
                                                                                 •   Travel to work data
                                                                                     comparison of resident
                                                                                     and workplace based
                                                                                     incomes;
                                                                                 •   Income data by Lower
                                                                                     Super Output Area /
                                                                                     ward;
                                                                                 •   Focus group feedback;
                                                                                 •   Estate agent feedback;
                                                                                 •   Council planning
                                                                                     departments feedback.

 Local housing market        •   Overview of local market trends and             •   Land Registry;
 overview                        differentiation of local housing markets.       •   New build market data.
                                                                                 •   Local economic drivers.

 Demand analysis             •   Forecasts for current and future population     •   Population and
                                 and household change;                               household projections;
                             •   Drivers and dynamics of population and          •   Migration statistics into
                                 household change;                                   and within the Stoke
                             •   Migration and travel to work trends;                Housing Market area
                             •   Socio-economic profiling;                           and the sub-region;
                             •   What type of households? Neighbourhood          •   GDP statistics;
                                 statistics analysis of socio-economic           •   Local economic drivers;
                                 composition;                                    •   ACORN profiling;
                             •   Demand for executive housing, fuelled by        •   Neighbourhood
                                 demographic changes;                                Statistics and NOMIS;
                             •   Where are the gaps between demand and           •   2001 Census, ONS;
                                 supply?;                                        •   Population estimates,
                             •   Growth of working age population;                   ONS;
                             •   Key areas of economic growth now and            •   Annual Survey of Hours
                                 forecast;                                           and Earnings;
                             •   Potential constraints unique to the local       •   GIS mapping analysis.
                                 market, lifestyle offer etc.                    •   Focus group feedback

 Supply analysis             •   What has been built? An overview of             •   Latest development
                                 historic supply in the local authority market       supply pipeline
                                 in terms of size, number and spatial                statistics;

arc4 RENEW NSRP Executive Housing Market Research Sept 2010                                               10 of 80
location of executive housing;               •   Latest development
                             •   What is being built? A review of planned         capacity data;
                                 schemes and those under construction in      •   Developer feedback
                                 respect of outstanding planning              •   Local authority planning
                                 permissions, SHLAA and National Land             feedback.
                                 Use Database;
                             •   Locally determined growth strategy -
                                 supply targets;
                             •   What reasonable quantum of executive
                                 housing should the local authorities be
                                 aiming for?
                             •   What is the gap between existing demand
                                 and supply?

                             Where do the three local authorities want to
                             be?
                             •   Current gap analysis between demand          •   Experian, ASHE;
                                 and supply profile;                          •   SHMA
                             •   ‘Visions’ to be supplied by the respective   •   Council feedback and
                                 local authorities                                emerging LDF
                                                                                  documents

arc4 RENEW NSRP Executive Housing Market Research Sept 2010                                           11 of 80
Section 3
Executive Housing Market Definition

3.1         Introduction

3.1.1       Housing referred to as ‘executive’ is a vague market product and has eluded definitive
            classification due to the many forms, densities, locations and contexts within which property
            referred to as ‘executive’ can be found. Indeed the term is often used, somewhat
            erroneously, to uplift the image of developments that would otherwise be classified as
            volume built housing. The term ‘executive’ may be allocated to new build developments in
            one location due to relative exclusivity in the context of resident household incomes, that
            may not be regarded as distinct developments in more affluent locations. Furthermore the
            term can be used dependent upon consumer perception and aspiration, in reference to new
            build bespoke properties, gated communities or period properties.

3.1.2       The term ‘executive’ equates to the most desirable and commonly, most expensive property
            in a particular location. Executive markets are locations that generally operate on a regional
            basis, across regional housing markets due to their exclusivity, the operation of such not
            confined to local authority boundaries. Purchasers of executive housing will often travel over
            large distances to employment locations, due to the nature of the desired character of
            residence.

3.1.3       In broad terms, executive housing is acknowledged as, ‘High quality accommodation in low
                                                                                       1
            density, suited to the needs and aspirations of higher income households’.

3.1.4       The first aspect of this research is to establish a meaningful definition of executive housing in
            the North Staffordshire market context. An executive housing market is dependent upon the
            components of supply and demand. In these terms, a housing supply profile based on
            property prices, property sizes, dwelling types, interior specifications, outside space and
            location. A housing demand profile based on household income, equity and savings,
            household type, household size, household needs, length of occupancy, access to
            occupancy and business ownership.

3.1.5       Characteristics of an executive housing market would also include a clear linkage to the
            national / international market, beneficial or at least low taxation, in terms of the location
            choice of industry and employment opportunities most conducive to business leaders,
            excellent environmental conditions, a contiguous executive or prime property market and
            associated lifestyle offer (discussed in further detail below).

3.1.6       An executive housing market can be defined in a number of ways combining the property
            value, but including a suite of elements such as price, density, design, location and
            specification, in order to establish a meaningful definition. In addition to a price level, this
            may include for example factors such as low density (eg, approximating five units per acre),
            with large floor space in excess of 2,000sqft, offering facilities such as 4+ bedrooms, double
            garages and ensuite bedrooms or luxury apartments in desirable locations. They can include
            bespoke design and self-build and are generally in owner occupation.

1
    Tomaney, J. Bradley, D. (2006). The economic role of mobile professional and creative workers and their housing residential
preferences: evidence from North East England. Nathanial Lichfield and Partners. Centre for Urban and Regional
Development Studies, University of Newcastle upon Tyne. Newcastle.

arc4 RENEW NSRP Executive Housing Market Research Sept 2010                                                            12 of 80
3.1.7   It is appreciated that in many markets and normal market conditions, property regarded as
        executive housing is likely to attract prices in excess £450,000. However a certain level of
        discount has been factored into our analysis for Stoke, in terms of both council tax banding
        and property pricing. This has been appropriate in order to capture the top end of the market
        for comparable properties with those in the adjacent local authorities of North Staffordshire.
        This approach has been informed by analysis of transaction levels across North Staffordshire
        and interviews with local agents active across the area, listed in appendix F. Our analysis
        therefore includes council tax banding E – H, rather than just G – H, to include the top end of
        the residential markets in each LA.

3.1.8   In addition our analysis of the depth of the top end market in North Staffordshire has
        identified disparities in achieved property values. Analysis of the depth of this market
        represented by transaction activity identified a number of price bands.

3.1.9   As we outline in section four below there are a significantly higher number of transactions
        recorded in Staffordshire Moorlands and Newcastle-under-Lyme for properties in excess of
        £400,000 compared to Stoke. The justification for adopting a £400,000 threshold for upper
        market housing is two-fold. Namely this property value reflects the council tax discount for
        Stoke encompassing a comparable upper-end market within bands E-H. Secondly the
        feedback from considerable focus group work with local agents and residents identified this
        level at which properties were considered to be upper market in Stoke.

3.1.10 Therefore the value ranges we have identified and will use in this assessment of current
       high-end property transactions include;

                 •   £400 - £500K range covers the ‘very high end’ property stock in Stoke and ‘high
                     end’ property in Newcastle-under-Lyme and Staffordshire Moorlands;
                 •   £500 - £750K range covers the ‘exceptional and exclusive’ properties in Stoke
                     and the ‘very high end’ properties in Newcastle-under-Lyme and Staffordshire
                     Moorlands;
                 •   £750K+ covers the ‘exceptional and exclusive’ properties in Newcastle-under-
                     Lyme and Staffordshire Moorlands.

3.1.11 Below we examine the current upper end housing offer demand in terms of both transaction
       levels and housing type. This will inform the recommendations as to the housing typologies
       and characteristics comprising a conducive ‘Quality of Place’ and residential offer in our case
       study section. An explanation of the relationship between these aspects is discussed in
       section 9.

arc4 RENEW NSRP Executive Housing Market Research Sept 2010                                        13 of 80
Section 4
Executive Housing Market Assessment

Current Executive Housing Market

4.1.1       As Table 4.1 illustrates the buying activity of detached properties in the three local authorities
            of North Staffordshire over the last three years highlights properties commanding prices in
            excess of £750,000 and £1M in Newcastle-under-Lyme and Staffordshire Moorlands. In
            comparison the top end of the Stoke market is represented by a market high of 0.9% during
            2008 of between £500,000 - £600, 000 (Land Registry, Q2 2009).

4.1.2       The analysis has focussed upon detached property transactions due to nominal levels of
            activity in the higher price categories for other property types such as flats, semi-detached
            and terraced properties. We appreciate that in certain markets the executive market has the
            potential to include properties of these types, such as prime location flats and townhouses.
            We identify the current demand levels for these alternative housing types in the higher price
            bands in section 4.2 below.

Table 4.1: Buying activity detached properties North Staffordshire 2007 – 2009 to date
Stoke                            2007                       2008                         2009
                                 Nos            %           Nos           %              Nos      %
Under 100K                        29          2.9%           26          4.8%             7     5.5%
100 -150K                         215         21.7%         114         20.9%            55     43.0%
150 - 200                         347         34.9%         200         36.6%            49     38.3%
200 - 300                         283         28.5%         147         26.9%            13     10.2%
300 - 400                         76          7.7%           40          7.3%             3     2.3%
400 - 500                         38          3.8%           14          2.6%             1     0.8%
500-600                            5          0.5%           5           0.9%             0     0.0%
Total                             993        100.0%         546         100.0%           128    100.0%

Newcastle-under-Lyme             2007                       2008                         2009
                                 Nos            %           Nos           %              Nos      %
Under 100K                         7          1.4%           4           1.2%             4     3.8%
100 -150K                         63          12.8%          45         13.4%            18     17.0%
150 - 200                         211         42.7%         117         34.9%            30     28.3%
200 - 300                         132         26.7%         103         30.7%            39     36.8%
300 - 400                         52          10.5%          48         14.3%             9     8.5%
400 - 500                         21          4.3%           7           2.1%             4     3.8%
500-750                            7          1.4%           10          3.0%             1     0.9%
750-1M                             1          0.2%           0           0.0%             0     0.0%
1M+                                0            0            1           0.3%             1     0.9%
Total                             494        100.0%         335         100.0%           106    100.0%

Staff Moors                      2007                       2008                         2009
                                 Nos            %           Nos           %              Nos      %
Under 100K                         9          1.2%           6           1.8%             4     3.5%
100 -150K                         232         30.4%          40         11.9%            23     20.4%
150 - 200                         174         22.8%          96         28.6%            27     23.9%
200 - 300                         221         29.0%         128         38.1%            40     35.4%
300 - 400                         81          10.6%          41         12.2%            12     10.6%
400 - 500                         32          4.2%           19          5.7%             4     3.5%
500-750                           12          1.6%           6           1.8%             3     2.7%

arc4 RENEW NSRP Executive Housing Market Research Sept 2010                                              14 of 80
750-1M                              1         0.1%          0           0.0%             0           0.0%
1M+                                 1         0.1%          0           0.0%             0           0.0%
Total                             763       100.0%          336         100.0%         113           100.0%
Source: Land Registry Q2 2009

4.1.3       As Table 4.1 illustrates, at the height of the property market, the top 4% of transactions in
            Stoke were recorded above £400,000, characterising an exclusive executive housing market.
            Comparable levels of transactions in Newcastle-under-Lyme and Staffordshire Moorlands
            are recorded between the £500 - £750,000 price categories, with a greater representation of
            transactions recorded in these local authorities in the uppermost price bands.

Table 4.2: Percentage of properties recorded within respective council tax bands
                    Council tax bands
LA                A        B            C    D         E          F        G       H         Total       E-H       F-H
Stoke-on-        62.0     19.5      12.5     3.9      1.5         0.4     0.1      0.0       100.0       2.0       0.6
Trent
Newcastle-       44.8     18.0      19.8     7.8      4.8         3.1     1.7      0.1       100.0       9.6       4.8
under-Lyme

Staffordshire    22.0     23.7      24.5    14.1      9.6         4.3     1.8      0.1       100.0       15.7      6.2
Moorlands

Total            49.4     20.0      16.8     7.0      4.0         1.9     0.8      0.1       100.0       6.8       2.8
Source: Council tax records RENEW

4.1.4       Table 4.2 illustrates the respective distribution of properties across North Staffordshire by
            council tax banding. Reflecting the transaction activity in Table 4.1 both Newcastle-under-
            Lyme and Staffordshire Moorlands record higher levels of stock within the higher tax bands
            compared to Stoke. A full breakdown of properties by CT band and ward is provided in
            Appendix A and B. This data has been compared to respective household income data by
            ward to identify the most conducive locations for potential executive housing delivery in
            terms of a target market.

4.1.5       Council tax banding classifies properties from band A (properties with the lowest tax rating)
            to band H (highest tax rating) in accordance with the properties value at the time of
            assessment. A summary of the distribution of council tax band classifications, across the
            North Staffordshire housing market, is shown in Table 4.2 and a full breakdown by ward in
            Appendix A. However in terms of the target bands of E – H, a total of 2,273 properties were
            identified within these bands in Stoke, compared to more than double at 5,107 properties
            within Newcastle-under-Lyme and a further 6,649 properties within Staffordshire Moorlands.

4.1.6       The disparities become even greater when considering the bands F – H, with 617 properties
            in Stoke compared to a more substantial 2,573 in Newcastle-under-Lyme and 2,613 within
            Staffordshire Moorlands. Properties within council tax bands F – H account for just 0.6% of
            all properties within Stoke, compared to 4.8% of properties in Newcastle-under-Lyme and
            6.2% in Staffordshire Moorlands. There is a justifiable requirement to factor in a ‘banding
            discount’ in terms of analysis in regards ‘top-end’ of the respective markets. The transaction
            and council tax data above indicates that high value housing offers an insignificant
            contribution to the Stoke housing market in particular.

4.1.7       In terms of ward distribution of higher value properties as illustrated in full in Appendix A and
            B, Table 4.3 identifies the top ten Stoke wards with the highest representation of properties

arc4 RENEW NSRP Executive Housing Market Research Sept 2010                                                     15 of 80
in the uppermost council tax bands. The three wards of Trentham and Hanford (30%), Meir
           Park and Sandon (16.9%) and Abbey Green (11.2%) contain almost two-thirds of all Stoke
           properties within bands E – H, at 58.1%.

Table 4.3: Top ten Stoke wards recording highest valued properties council tax bands E - H
Ward name                            E        F          G           H     E-H Total (%)      F-H Total (%)
Abbey Green                         3.4       1.1        0.1         0.0          4.7              1.3
Blurton                             2.2       0.9        0.1         0.0          3.2              1.0
Chell and Packmoor                  0.8       0.0        0.0         0.0          1.0              0.1
East Valley                         1.8       0.9        0.1         0.0          2.8              1.0
Hartshill and Penkhull              1.5       0.4        0.1         0.2          2.1              0.7
Longton South                       1.9       0.3        0.1         0.0          2.3              0.4
Meir Park and Sandon                4.8       2.1        0.2         0.0          7.1              2.3
Northwood and Birches Head          1.5       0.0        0.0         0.0          1.5              0.0
Norton and Bradeley                 0.9       0.1        0.1         0.0          1.2              0.2
Trentham and Hanford                9.6       2.2        0.7         0.2          12.6             3.1
Source: RENEW

4.1.8      In terms of ward distribution of higher value properties as illustrated in full in Appendix A and
           B, Table 4.4 identifies the top ten Newcastle-under-Lyme wards with the highest
           representation of properties in the uppermost council tax bands. The three wards of
           Loggerheads and Whitmore (25.2%), Westlands (16.6%) and Keele (15.7%) contain almost
           half of all Newcastle-under-Lyme properties within bands E – H, at 47.5%.

Table 4.4: Top ten Newcastle-under-Lyme wards recording highest valued properties council tax bands E – H
Ward name                           E               F           G            H              E-H           F-H
Audley and Bignall End             4.3            1.3          0.3           0.0            5.9            1.6
Halmerend                          12.1           8.8          3.0           0.4            24.2          12.1
Keele                              18.2           12.3         5.1           1.9            37.6          19.4
Loggerheads and Whitmore           24.6           17.8         17.2          0.4            60.0          35.4
Madeley                            9.3            7.5          1.7           0.2            18.7           9.3
May Bank                           2.2            1.7          1.3           0.0            5.2            3.0
Newchapel                          3.1            1.1          0.1           0.0            4.3            1.2
Seabridge                          11.2           2.5          0.2           0.0            13.9           2.7
Thistleberry                       8.1            4.1          0.7           0.0            13.0           4.9
Westlands                          14.2           18.0         7.3           0.0            39.6          25.4
Source: RENEW

4.1.9      In terms of ward distribution of higher value properties as illustrated in full in Appendix A and
           B, Table 4.5 identifies the top ten Staffordshire Moorlands wards with the highest
           representation of properties in the uppermost council tax bands. The three wards of Horton
           (12.1%), Dane (10.5%) and Bagnall and Stanley (9.0%) contain over one-third of all
           Staffordshire Moorlands properties within bands E – H, at 31.6%. As indicated in Appendix B
           map B3, the distribution of higher valued properties is more widespread across the authority
           in comparison to the pockets of higher value stock in Newcastle-under-Lyme and in far fewer
           proportions in Stoke.

Table 4.5: Top ten Staffordshire Moorlands wards recording highest valued properties council tax bands E – H
Ward name                           E               F          G            H              E-H           F-H
Alton                             24.1         10.4            4.8          0.3            39.6          15.6

arc4 RENEW NSRP Executive Housing Market Research Sept 2010                                                      16 of 80
Bagnall and Stanley               22.1        19.4             9.1          0.0       50.6         28.5
Biddulph North                    14.0         4.5             2.6          0.0       21.1         7.1
Caverswall                        14.9         7.2             4.2          0.1       26.5         11.6
Cheddleton                        13.2         6.6             1.7          0.2       21.7         8.5
Dane                              26.2        22.7             9.2          0.9       59.0         32.8
Hamps Valley                      22.2         8.9             4.1          0.3       35.6         13.3
Horton                            21.5        27.0             19.5         0.4       68.4         46.9
Ipstones                          19.1         7.8             2.6          0.1       29.6         10.5
Manifold                          26.7        10.1             4.0          0.0       40.8         14.1
Source: RENEW

4.1.10 The distribution of properties in council tax bands E – H is shown in Appendix B1 – B3. It is
       clear that higher value property makes a nominal contribution to the overall housing stock in
       Stoke as a local authority. In Newcastle-under-Lyme, there appears to be a clear distinction
       between the north and east of the local authority with a low representation of higher valued
       stock compared to the south in particular in Loggerheads and Whitmore, Keele and
       Westlands and west such as in Halmerend and Madeley.

4.1.11 Higher value property appears to represent a greater proportion and wider distribution of
       property stock in Staffordshire Moorlands, particularly towards the east of the district in the
       National Park (Appendix Map B3).

4.2        Current ‘high-end’ property market context

4.2.1      Land Registry sales data was examined for the period Q1 2005 – Q2 2009. The dataset
           comprises 31,702 individual residential sales records from open market transactions in the
           three local authorities of North Staffordshire, over the four-year period. By way of comparison
           the rate of private sector turnover is far greater in Stoke at 18,839 transactions over this
           period, compared to 7,139 in Newcastle-under-Lyme and 5,724 sales in Staffordshire
           Moorlands within this period.

4.2.2      In terms of analysing the depth of the high-end property market in North Staffordshire,
           unsurprisingly a significantly higher number of transactions have been recorded in
           Staffordshire Moorlands and Newcastle-under-Lyme for properties in excess of £400,000
           compared to Stoke. The justification for adopting a £400,000 threshold for upper market
           housing is two-fold. Namely this property value reflects the council tax discount for Stoke
           encompassing a comparable upper-end market within bands E-H. Secondly the feedback
           from considerable focus group work with local agents and residents identified this level at
           which properties were considered to be in the highest market.

4.2.3      The total number of recorded transactions above this threshold between Q1 2007 and Q2
           2009 was 63 sales in Stoke. All sales were existing stock apart from two new build sales and
           all apart from three being detached properties. Table 4.6 identifies those ‘high-end’ non-
           detached property sales over this period, illustrating the constrained demand for upper
           market housing typologies from the traditional detached type. Each transaction was recorded
           as an existing semi-detached property within a suburban / rural location.

Table 4.6: Non-detached upper market property transactions - Stoke
       Price          Type   New Build / Existing Post Code           Ward Name       Rural / Suburban / Urban
   £370,000           Semi        Existing           ST3 5YD     Longton North            Suburban / Rural
   £379,950           Semi        Existing           ST4 8XJ     Trentham & Hanford       Suburban / Rural

arc4 RENEW NSRP Executive Housing Market Research Sept 2010                                                  17 of 80
£395,000       Semi            Existing       ST2 9DD     Berryhill & Hanley East      Suburban / Rural
Source: RENEW, Land Registry

4.2.4   In Newcastle-under-Lyme the number of transactions above this threshold was 53. All sales
        were existing stock apart from four new build sales and all sales except 17 being detached
        properties, 9 semi-detached and 8 terraced. Table 4.7 identifies those ‘high-end’ non-
        detached property sales over this period, illustrating the depth of upper market housing
        typologies from the traditional detached type. Each transaction was recorded as an existing
        property apart from two new builds, the majority within a rural / suburban location. Notably
        there is an equal representation of larger terraced / townhouse and semi-detached
        properties.

Table 4.7: Non-detached upper market property transactions – Newcastle-under-Lyme
    Price        Type    New Build / Existing Post Code         Ward Name           Rural / Suburban / Urban
   £750,000        T           Existing       ST5 0QW      May Bank                        Suburban
                                                           Loggerheads and
   £760,000        T           Existing       TF9 4HE      Whitmore                          Rural
                                                           Loggerheads and
   £775,000        S           Existing       ST5 5HB      Whitmore                          Rural
                                                           Loggerheads and
   £595,000        T           Existing        TF9 2PA     Whitmore                          Rural
                                                           Loggerheads and
   £495,000        T           Existing        TF9 2PA     Whitmore                          Rural
   £500,000        S           Existing       ST5 0QN      May Bank                    Urban / Suburban
                                                           Loggerheads and
   £520,000        T           New Build      TF9 4NA      Whitmore                          Rural
                                                           Loggerheads and
   £350,000        T           Existing        TF9 4HJ     Whitmore                          Rural
   £350,000        S           Existing       CW3 9QL      Madeley                           Rural
   £355,000        S           Existing       CW3 9AN      Halmerend                    Rural / Suburban
   £375,000        S           Existing        ST5 3LT     Westlands                   Suburban / Urban
   £377,500        S           Existing       ST5 1DP      Town                        Urban / Suburban
                                                           Loggerheads and
   £385,000        S           Existing       TF9 2QH      Whitmore                          Rural
                                                           Loggerheads and
   £389,950        S           Existing       TF9 4NB      Whitmore                          Rural
   £397,000        S           New Build       ST5 3JG     Westlands                    Rural / Suburban
   £429,000        T           Existing       ST5 2NF      Thistleberry                    Suburban
   £475,000        T           Existing       ST5 3GZ      Knutton and Silverdale       Rural / Suburban
Source: RENEW, Land Registry

4.2.5   In Staffordshire Moorlands 78 transactions were recorded above £400,000. All sales were
        existing stock apart from seven new build sales and all sales except 39 being for detached
        properties. Table 4.8 identifies those ‘high-end’ non-detached property sales over this period,
        illustrating the depth of upper market housing typologies from the traditional detached type.
        Each transaction was recorded as an existing property apart from two new builds, the
        majority within a rural / suburban location. Notably there is an equal representation of larger
        terraced / townhouse and semi-detached properties, with only one recorded sale for a flat
        within this market.

arc4 RENEW NSRP Executive Housing Market Research Sept 2010                                                    18 of 80
Table 4.8: Non-detached upper market property transactions – Staffordshire Moorlands
    Price        Type    New Build / Existing Post Code        Ward Name          Rural / Suburban / Urban
   £370,000        T           Existing        ST13 5LR         Leek East              Rural / Suburban
   £440,000        S           Existing        ST13 8JS         Leek North             Rural / Suburban
   £365,000        S           Existing        ST13 8DL         Leek West              Suburban / Rural
   £495,000        S           Existing        ST10 4JH          Checkley                   Rural
   £980,000        S           Existing        CW12 3QJ           Horton                    Rural
   £370,000        T           Existing        ST9 9PS      Bagnall and Stanley             Rural
   £390,000        T           Existing        SK17 0NZ          Manifold                   Rural
   £360,000        S           Existing         ST9 9NJ     Bagnall and Stanley             Rural
   £400,000        S           Existing        ST13 5PA         Leek South                Suburban
   £370,000        S           Existing        ST13 7EA         Cheddleton                  Rural
   £400,000        S           Existing        ST11 9BG         Forsbrook                   Rural
   £450,000        T           Existing        ST9 9NS      Bagnall and Stanley             Rural
   £385,000        T           Existing        ST13 6AB         Leek North                  Urban
   £481,000        S           Existing        ST10 4BN            Alton                    Rural
   £364,000        T           Existing         ST9 9LX     Bagnall and Stanley             Rural
   £570,000        S           Existing        ST8 6QP        Biddulph North              Suburban
   £670,000        F           New Build       DE6 2FR         Hamps Valley                 Rural
   £365,000        S           Existing        ST11 9HQ         Forsbrook              Suburban / Rural
   £404,000        T           Existing        ST9 9QF            Horton                    Rural
   £950,000        S           Existing        SK11 0RF           Dane                      Rural
   £357,000        S           Existing        ST13 5SB         Leek East              Suburban / Rural
   £480,000        S           Existing        ST13 8SB         Leek North                  Rural
   £430,000        S           Existing        ST13 5EZ         Leek North                  Urban
   £395,000        T           Existing        ST13 8SA         Leek North                  Rural
   £375,000        T           Existing        ST13 7AL         Leek South                  Rural
   £590,000        S           Existing        ST13 7QZ        Hamps Valley                 Rural
   £500,000        T           Existing        ST10 2BA          Churnet                    Rural
   £370,000        T           Existing        ST13 8RN           Horton                    Rural
   £600,000        T           Existing        ST13 5RD         Leek South                  Rural
   £410,000        S           New Build       ST10 3BQ            Alton                    Rural
   £440,000        T           Existing        ST9 0BA          Cheddleton                  Rural
   £425,000        T           Existing        ST8 7PS        Biddulph South                Rural
   £430,000        T           Existing        ST8 7RS        Biddulph North                Rural
   £660,000        S           Existing        ST10 4AP            Alton                    Rural
   £385,000        S           Existing        ST10 4BH            Alton                    Rural
   £595,000        S           Existing        ST13 8SH           Dane                      Rural
                                                              Brown Edge and
   £350,000        S           Existing        ST9 9DY            Endon                     Rural
   £350,000        S           Existing        ST13 8PU           Horton                    Rural
Source: RENEW, Land Registry

4.2.6    As the tables above indicate there is a considerable paucity of new build executive property
         supply on the current market throughout the three authorities of North Staffordshire. The total
         number of new build sales in this sector across the three authorities being 13 sales over this
         period. The main focus of transaction activity within the high end market recorded within
         existing properties within a rural and suburban location. This feature of the North
         Staffordshire executive market is highlighted within section 6 agent and developer interviews

arc4 RENEW NSRP Executive Housing Market Research Sept 2010                                                  19 of 80
below. Illustrating a distinct absence of new build property currently on the market, the
          highest priced new build stock in North Staffordshire is £259,995, volume-built and not
          representative of an executive market according to the definitions provided.

4.2.7     The value ranges used in this assessment of current high-end property transactions include;

                    •       £400 - £500K range covers the ‘very high end’ property stock in Stoke and ‘high
                            end’ property in Newcastle-under-Lyme and Staffordshire Moorlands;
                    •       £500 - £750K range covers the ‘exceptional and exclusive’ properties in Stoke
                            and the ‘very high end’ properties in Newcastle-under-Lyme and Staffordshire
                            Moorlands;
                    •       £750K+ covers the ‘exceptional and exclusive’ properties in Newcastle-under-
                            Lyme and Staffordshire Moorlands.

4.2.8     Identified property sales within the three high-end value ranges are broken down by ward
          and local authority in Tables 4.9 – 4.11 below.

Table 4.9: High end house price transactions by ward - Stoke
Ward name                            £400 -     £500 -     £750K+
                                     £500K      £750K
Abbey Green                            2
Bentilee and Townsend                  1
Berryhill and Hanley East              1
Blurton                                1
Burslem North                          1
East Valley                            4
Longton North                          1
Meir Park and Sandon                   1
Northwood and Birches Head             1
Stoke and Trent Vale                   1
Trentham and Hanford                   9          1
Source: Land Registry, RENEW

4.2.9     As illustrated in Table 4.9, only one property could be classified as ‘exclusive and
          exceptional’ in terms of price, this property recorded in the Trentham and Hanford ward. As
          we have illustrated elsewhere, this ward comprises the highest proportion of private sector
          stock in the highest council tax bands and the highest average household income of Stoke
          wards.

4.2.10 Stoke has a highly constrained supply of high value housing. Indeed the fact that all but one
       property has been sold for sub-£500,000 would indicate that compared to some higher value
       areas an executive housing product does not exist.

4.2.11 Table 4.10 illustrates the higher representation of high value properties within Newcastle-
       under-Lyme. A total of 130 transactions are recorded within the ‘high-end’ range, 18 sales
       within the ‘very-high’ range and 6 within the ‘exceptional’ range. These transactions are
       recorded within the ward of Loggerheads and Whitmore and include a sale in excess of
       £1.1M. The wards of Westlands, Halmerend and May Bank also record representation within
       the ‘very high’ range.

Table 4.10: High end house price transactions by ward - Newcastle-under-Lyme

arc4 RENEW NSRP Executive Housing Market Research Sept 2010                                           20 of 80
Ward name                        £400 -       £500 -      £750K+
                                 £500K        £750K
Audley and Bignall End              2
Halmerend                           9            3
Keele                               1
Knutton and Silverdale              1
Loggerheads and Whitmore           42            7            6
Madeley                             3            1
May Bank                            5            2
Newchapel                           3
Seabridge                           3
Thistleberry                        5            1
Town                                3
Westlands                          27            4
Wolstanton                          1
Source: Land Registry, RENEW

4.2.12 Table 4.11 illustrates the higher representation of high value properties within Staffordshire
       Moorlands. A total of 145 transactions are recorded within the ‘high-end’ range, 30 sales
       within the ‘very-high’ range and 8 within the ‘exceptional’ range. These transactions are
       recorded within six wards and include sales in excess of £1M.

Table 4.11: High end house price transactions by ward – Staffordshire Moorlands
Ward name                        £400 -       £500 -      £750K+
                                 £500K        £750K
Alton                               7            1
Bagnall and Stanley                10            1
Biddulph Moor                       2
Biddulph North                      8            2            1
Biddulph South                      1
Brown Edge and Endon                5            1
Caverswall                          2            1
Cheadle South East                  1
Cheadle West                        1
Checkley                            5            1            1
Cheddleton                         12
Churnet                             5            4
Dane                                6            2            1
Forsbrook                           9            1
Halmerend                           1
Hamps Valley                        6            2            2
Horton                             15            9            1
Ipstones                            8
Leek East                           8
Leek North                          9            1
Leek South                          7            1
Leek West                           3
Manifold                           10            3            2
Tutbury and Outwoods                1

arc4 RENEW NSRP Executive Housing Market Research Sept 2010                                     21 of 80
Werrington                            3
Source: Land Registry, RENEW

4.3         Wider Housing Reference Area

4.3.1       As the research identifies, the market for executive housing operates over a wide area,
            larger than housing markets are normally defined. The market is often described as
            regional, but as North Staffordshire sits on the boundary of two regions it is appropriate to
            consider a cross-regional wider market area. Following consultation, we based it on the
            wider reference area for the North Staffordshire housing market and included the (pre-
            reorganisation) LA areas of Crewe and Nantwich, Congleton, Stafford and North Shropshire.
            .
4.3.2       Table 4.12 illustrates the buying activity of detached properties in this wider housing
            reference area over the last three years. The number of properties commanding prices in
            excess of £500,000 - £1M in North Shropshire represents 4.5% of the total market, higher
            than that in Newcastle-under-Lyme and Staffordshire Moorlands. The volume of transactions
            at £400K-£500K records almost 10% of the total market share of detached sales. In terms of
            sales volumes, North Shropshire is comparable with Newcastle-under-Lyme

4.3.3       In terms of transaction volumes, Stafford records a considerable number of sales within the
            higher price bands, comparable with, though slightly higher in numerical terms with
            Staffordshire Moorlands over the three-year period. Comparable levels of transactions in the
            higher price categories are recorded, including individual exceptional priced sales in excess
            of £1M.

4.3.4       The analysis has focussed upon detached property transactions due to nominal levels of
            activity in the higher price categories for other property types such as flats, semi-detached
            and terraced properties. In Stafford sales of these property types recorded over this three
            year period were 8 semi-detached between £400-£500K, no flats and 4townhouse / terraced
            properties. No transactions recorded for these types over £500,000.

Table 4.12: Buying activity wider Housing Reference Area 2007 – 2009 to date
North Shropshire                2007                      2008                 2009
                                 Nos           %           Nos           %     Nos         %
Under 100K                        5          1.2%           3          1.2%     2         2.5%
100 -150K                        20          4.8%          12          4.8%     9        11.3%
150 - 200                        103         24.8%         55          21.9%   26        32.5%
200 - 300                        159         38.3%         105         41.8%   25        31.3%
300 - 400                        80          19.3%         42          16.7%   10        12.5%
400 - 500                        30          7.2%          24          9.6%     7         8.8%
500-750                          16          3.9%           8          3.2%     1         1.3%
750-1M                            2          0.5%           2          0.8%     0         0.0%
Total                            415        100.0%         251        100.0%   80        100.0%

Stafford                        2007                      2008                 2009
                                 Nos           %           Nos           %     Nos         %
Under 100K                        5          0.8%           2          0.6%     3         1.9%
100 -150K                        27          4.1%          13          3.7%    23        14.6%
150 - 200                        147         22.3%         75          21.1%   39        24.8%
200 - 300                        301         45.7%         160         45.1%   59        37.6%
300 - 400                        120         18.2%         60          16.9%   19        12.1%

arc4 RENEW NSRP Executive Housing Market Research Sept 2010                                        22 of 80
400 - 500                        38         5.8%        21         5.9%         9         5.7%
500-750                          17         2.6%        20         5.6%         5         3.2%
750-1M                            1         0.2%         3         0.8%         0         0.0%
1M+                               2         0.3%         1         0.3%         0         0.0%
Total                            658       100.0%       355       100.0%       157       100.0%

Congleton                       2007                   2008                    2009
                                 Nos         %          Nos         %          Nos          %
Under 100K                        7         1.0%         3         1.0%         3         2.9%
100 -150K                        16         2.4%        19         6.2%         17        16.2%
150 - 200                        112       16.7%        51         16.7%        33        31.4%
200 - 300                        339       50.7%        146        47.9%        36        34.3%
300 - 400                        112       16.7%        52         17.0%        9         8.6%
400 - 500                        49         7.3%        21         6.9%         4         3.8%
500-750                          31         4.6%        12         3.9%         2         1.9%
750-1M                            3         0.4%         0         0.0%         1         1.0%
1M+                               0         0.0%         1         0.3%         0         0.0%
Total                            669       100.0%       305       100.0%       105       100.0%

Crewe and Nantwich              2007                   2008                    2009
                                 Nos         %          Nos         %          Nos          %
Under 100K                        2         0.3%         4         1.3%         3         2.3%
100 -150K                        52         8.3%        41         13.0%        22        17.2%
150 - 200                        170       27.0%        86         27.3%        31        24.2%
200 - 300                        224       35.6%        104        33.0%        37        28.9%
300 - 400                        87        13.8%        46         14.6%        21        16.4%
400 - 500                        70        11.1%        15         4.8%         12        9.4%
500-750                          20         3.2%        15         4.8%         2         1.6%
750-1M                            2         0.3%         4         1.3%         0         0.0%
1M+                               2         0.3%         0         0.0%         0         0.0%
Total                            629       100.0%       315       100.0%       128       100.0%
Source: Land Registry Q2 2009

4.3.5       As Table 4.12 illustrates, the buying activity of detached properties in the wider South
            Cheshire area incorporating Congleton and Crewe and Nantwich over the last three years
            has declined significantly in line with the wider market trends. In Congleton, in terms of
            absolute transaction levels and distribution of stock, similar trends are drawn with
            Staffordshire Moorlands. However in both Congleton and Crewe and Nantwich a higher
            concentration of sales are recorded in the mid-range executive properties namely £400K -
            £500K price band.

4.3.6       The analysis of the extent of the respective executive markets across the wider housing
            market reference area identifies the comparative lack of housing being sold within this sector
            in Stoke-on-Trent in particular. The majority of transactions at this level are recorded for
            existing detached properties.

4.3.7       The overall position is shown in Table 4.13. To give a snapshot, it is probably reasonable to
            consider the annual level of transactions at prices of £500k and over, based on 2007 and
            2008. This covers a year that had buoyant activity and one of declining activity. The figures
            for the first half of 2009 are much lower, and represent a depressed rather than a normal
            market. On this basis, there are

arc4 RENEW NSRP Executive Housing Market Research Sept 2010                                        23 of 80
An average of 106 sales at the high end of the market across the wider sub-regional
              area
              Of these 25 are in North Staffordshire and 5 in Stoke.

Table 4.13: Summary of executive housing market sales across wider reference area

LA in Housing reference         2007 – 2008 (2007- 2009) 2007 - 2008 (2007- 2009)   All 2007-   Per annum   Per annum
area                                                                                2009 Q2     based on    (2007-2009
                                                                                                 2007-8        Q2)
                                  £500K-                 Over £750K
                                  £750k
North Shropshire                    24          (25)          4           (4)          29          14          11.6
Stafford                            37          (42)          7           (7)          49          22           19
Congleton                           43          (43)          4           (5)          48          23           19
Crewe and Nantwich                  35          (37)          8           (8)          45          22           18
Staffordshire Moorlands             18          (21)          2           (2)          23          10          9.2
Newcastle-under-Lyme                17          (18)          2           (3)          21          10          8.4
Stoke-on-Trent                      10          (0)           0           (0)          10           5           4
Total in reference area            184         (198)         27          (29)         227          106          91
Source: Land Registry Q2 2009

arc4 RENEW NSRP Executive Housing Market Research Sept 2010                                                 24 of 80
Section 5
Policy Context

5.1 National policy context

5.1.1   The one issue that dominates all others in the UK housing market at the current time is that
        there is an underlying undersupply of the correct housing to meet demand. Demand has
        increased substantially over recent years through demographic and cultural shifts, smaller
        household sizes, increased life expectancy, immigration and rising wealth. Over the past
        decade house building has simply not kept pace, latest CLG figures reveal 133,710
        completions during 2008 against a national target of 240,000.

5.1.2   One of the consequences of this imbalance has been to contribute to the extent that house
        prices have risen dramatically over the last five years. In addition the cost differentials
        between tenures has risen to such a level that many households are trapped within the
        rented sector. For example, the ability for households in social rented accommodation to
        exercise any choice within the market is heavily restricted and first time buyer loans are
        currently at historically low levels.

5.1.3   The former Government’s policy solution to the perceived housing ‘crisis’ was contained
        within the 2007 Housing Green Paper, which set ambitious targets for the volume of future
        house building in England. The Green paper proposed the delivery of three million homes by
        2020. Meeting this 240,000 unit per annum target will be a significant challenge for both the
        development industry and the planning system and as such the then Government stated that
        policy would aim to move beyond supply and demand issues. The objective was to loosen
        the housing market and enable households to move between different tenures more easily at
        different life stages. The future direction of government policy on housing, beyond the very
        sketchy outlines in the Coalition Government agreement remains to be clarified.

        How does lower density executive housing provision within North Staffordshire fit within the
        strategic planning framework for North Staffordshire and the wider sub-region?

5.1.4   Stoke, like other local authorities, is currently in a period of transition from the current
        Structure Plan planning framework to the emerging Local Development Framework. Local
        Development Frameworks are designed to promote a proactive approach to managing and
        facilitating development. LDF’s differ considerably to previous spatial planning documents in
        that they are continuous and fluid and are designed to be driven by an overall vision for
        development.

5.1.5   The North Staffordshire Regeneration Partnership Business Plan establishes the aim to
        promote and develop a quality housing range and offer, as part of an over-arching ambition
        to create sustainable communities and encourage economic growth. This mission statement
        on the sub-regional level reflects a series of national and regional policy drivers.

        Planning Policy Statement 3: Housing

5.1.6   PPS3 sets out the Government’s national planning policy framework for delivering the
        Government’s housing objectives. PPS3 has been developed in response to the Barker
        Review of Housing Supply in March 2004. The proposals draw on a range of research and
        consultation exercises. The underlying objective of PPS3 is to initiate the necessary step
        change in housing delivery to meet the emphasis on increasing supply. The Government

arc4 RENEW NSRP Executive Housing Market Research Sept 2010                                    25 of 80
You can also read