GERMANY PROPERTY REPORT 2019 - RESEARCH - BNP Paribas Real Estate
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RETAIL MARKET
GERMANY
PROPERTY REPORT 2019
RESEARCH
Real Estate
for a changing world
CONTENTS
OVERVIEW 24 Bremen 52 Mannheim
26 54
3
Cologne Munich
28 56
Executive Summary
4
Dortmund Münster
30 58
Macroeconomic
overview Dresden Nuremberg
7 Retail Investment 32 Düsseldorf 60 Osnabrück
10 The German 34 Erfurt 62 Stuttgart
36 64
retail markets
14
Essen Trier
38 66
Most active
retailers 2018 Frankfurt Wiesbaden
40 Hamburg 68 Würzburg
42
AT A GLANCE
Hannover
16 44
REFERENCES
Aachen Heidelberg
18 Berlin 46 Karlsruhe 70 Letting
20 Bonn 48 Leipzig 71 Investment
22 Braunschweig 50 Mainz
IMPRINT
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Prepared by: BNP Paribas Real Estate Status: January 2019
Consult GmbH Circulation: 450
All rights reserved. This Property Report is protected in its entirety by copyright. No part of this publication may be reproduced, translated, transmitted, or stored in a retrieval
system in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH.
The statements, notifications and forecasts provided here correspond to our estimations at the time when this report was prepared and can change without notice. The data come
from various sources which we consider reliable but whose validity, correctness or exactness we cannot guarantee. Explicitly, this report does not represent a recommendation of
any kind, nor should it be regarded as forming a basis for making any decisions regarding investment or letting or renting property or premises. BNP Paribas Real Estate can accept
no liability whatsoever for any information contained or statements made herein.
RETAIL MARKET GERMANY 2019 OVERVIEW
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
RETAIL IN THE MIDST OF CHANGE
In no other market segment of the German real estate market are structures changing as
quickly as in the retail sector. The main driver for many developments and discussions
is e-commerce, which is continuing to expand its share of total retail turnover and at the
same time recording above-average growth rates. The online business scores not only
with a comfortable order and fast delivery times, but in many cases also with very fair
exchange or return conditions. What it does not offer, however, is the emotional shopping
experience of shopping, combined with upstream or downstream activities, which as an
overall package result in a pleasant and interesting leisure time organisation.
TOP RENTS STABLE TO FALLING
▸▸ In 38 of 64 cities regularly analysed by BNP Paribas Real Estate, the top rent has not
changed. However, 24 cities showed decreases.
▸▸ T
he majority of the retail markets were also able to maintain the rent level, as the
pressure on demand that had been built up for a long time has remained unchanged
due to the very limited supply in the top locations and retailers being absolutely keen
to occupy these specific locations.
▸▸ S
horter lease durations that involve a risk sharing between tenant and landlord
(e. g. turnover-based rent components), play an important role, especially in the case
of larger space units.
OVERALL DEMAND REMAINS GOOD
▸▸ T
he top 10 German locations outperformed their previous year’s results with an
inner-city take-up of almost 193,000 m² (almost 430 contracts recorded), whereas the
nationwide result shows declines.
▸▸ In a more ambitious competitive environment, larger shopping metropolises with a
wide range of complementary catering and leisure facilities seem to be better off at the
moment than many B- and C-cities.
IN TERMS OF EXPANSION, GERMANY REMAINS A SAFE HAVEN
▸▸ A
large number of renowned retailers such as Uniqlo, Topshop, Arket, Zalando and
JD Sports, whose concepts are designed for larger shops, have noticeably increased
their pace of expansion in 2018.
▸▸ O
utside the fashion sector, the expanding trio of eyewear suppliers Ace & Tate, VIU
and Mister Spex as well as the Danish furniture store Søstrene Grene, the Dutch
department store chain Hema and the Swedish watch brand Daniel Wellington were
also able to expand their branch network.
2|3
MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW
RETAIL SALES HAVE CONTINUED TO GROW DEVELOPMENT OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) IN GERMANY
Despite a relatively weak overall economic development in in % (price-adjusted)
1.1
the second half of the year, retail sales also increased in
0.9
1.0
2018, recording the ninth consecutive increase. According
to initial calculations by the Federal Statistical Office, they 0.8
0.6
0.6
0.6
© BNP Paribas Real Estate Retail Services, December 31, 2018
have increased nominally by between 3.1 % and 3.3 % and by
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.4
between 1.4 % and 1.5 % in price-adjusted terms. Although
0.3
0.4
growth was somewhat lower than in the last three years, it
0.2
nevertheless underscored the overall stability of consumer 0.2
0,0
confidence. At the same time, the result also reflects the
0.0
strong economy in the first half of the year and, above all,
-0.1
-0.2
the continuing rise in employment accompanied by falling
-0.2
unemployment. To a large extent the income effects result- -0.4
ing from this are of direct benefit to the retail industry. As
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
expected, the Internet and mail order business again grew 2015 2016 2017 2018
disproportionately, increasing its share of total sales. E- Source: Destatis
commerce is therefore becoming increasingly important and
will continue its success story in the coming years.
ECONOMIC GROWTH SLOWS BUT REMAINS INTACT
According to the provisional figures for 2018, the Ger-
man economy grew by 1.5 % in real terms. This repre-
sents a smaller increase than in the two previous years.
While the first half of the year was still extremely good,
the third quarter even saw a decline. Since GDP picked up GDP DEVELOPMENT IN INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON
again in the final quarter, a so-called technical recession in %
was avoided. The automotive industry was one of the main Germany France United Kingdom
contributors to the weak second half of the year, having to USA Spain
contend with new emission tests introduced in the wake
of the diesel scandal. Some manufacturers have therefore 6.0
© BNP Paribas Real Estate Retail Services, December 31, 2018
sold little or no new cars for months. This special situa-
4.0
tion must be taken into account when analysing economic
2.0
developments. Growth impetus came primarily from the
domestic market. Both private and public consumer spend- 0
ing has increased. Above-average contributions were also
-2.0
made by the segments ICT, construction, as well as trade,
transport and hospitality. Exports rose by 2.4 %, while im- -4.0
ports increased by 3.4 %, thus slowing GDP growth in purely -6.0
arithmetical terms.
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Forecast Forecast
Source: Eurostat, forecast BNP Paribas
RETAIL MARKET GERMANY 2019 OVERVIEW
LABOUR MARKET REMAINS VERY DYNAMIC DEVELOPMENT OF UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN GERMANY
In 2018, the labour market impressively continued the up- in %
ward trend of recent years. On average, 2.34 million peo-
8.0
ple were registered as unemployed. This corresponds to a
6.8
6.5
decline of 193,000 or almost 8 % compared with the pre-
6.2
6.2
6.1
6.0
© BNP Paribas Real Estate Retail Services, December 31, 2018
5.9
5.9
5.8
vious year. Accordingly, the unemployment rate fell by 50
5.5
5.5
5.5
6.0
5.3
5.0
5.0
basis points to an average of 5.2 %. As a result, employment
4.9
continued to increase and, at 44.83 million, reached its
highest level since reunification. In total, around 562,000 4.0
more people were in employment than in 2017. Particu-
larly noteworthy is the fact that this growth took place
above all in employment subject to social insurance con- 2.0
tributions, which rose by 705,000 to 32.87 million in June
2018. In contrast, part time employment as well as self-
employment have decreased. The positive development Q1 Q2
2015
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2016
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2017
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2018
Q3 Q4
therefore extends not only to absolute figures, but also to Source: Labour market statistics of the Federal Labour Agency
structural aspects relating to the social security of newly
created jobs. Since the number of job vacancies has also
increased by 66,000 to an average of 796,000, everything
points to the fact that the labour market will continue its
success story in 2019.
CONSUMER CLIMATE REMAINS ACTIVE
The consumer climate index produced by GfK forecasts
a value of 10.4 points for January, the same level as in
December 2017. Although it is 0.4 lower than a year ago, DEVELOPMENT OF THE GFK CONSUMER CLIMATE INDEX
this is still a high value in a long-term comparison. The
12.0 10.8
10.5
10.9
different development directions of the sub-indicators are 10.7
10.7
10.4
10.4
10.2
10.2
10.0
remarkable. Economic expectations fell sharply to 14.1
9.9
9.8
9.8
9.7
9.5
9.3
10.0
points, the lowest level since February 2017. This shows
© BNP Paribas Real Estate Retail Services, December 31, 2018
that consumers cannot escape the lower GDP forecasts
8.0
and, above all, the many global risks. On the other hand,
consumers are noticeably more optimistic about their
6.0
personal situation. The partial indicator of income devel-
opment even increased in December 2018 and climbed
4.0
to 53.8 points. Some uncertainty about external risks is
nevertheless reflected in the propensity to buy, which has
2.0
fallen by a few points to 53.1 points. Nevertheless, the
propensity to consume remains at a very high level and
underlines the good economic framework. The retail in- Q1 Q2
2015
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2016
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2017
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2018
Q3 Q4
dustry will also continue to benefit from this.
4|5ECONOMY MORE SKEPTICAL THAN CONSUMERS DEVELOPMENT OF THE IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE INDEX
For the companies, the impact of the emerging economic Index values (2005 = 100)
clouds on sentiment indicators is greater than for con
104.6
103.9
103.8
103.8
103.0
120.0
102.3
sumers. This statement is clearly expressed in the most
101.9
100.8
100.8
101.0
100.5
100.6
100.2
100.4
99.2
99.1
important sentiment indicator of the German economy, the
© BNP Paribas Real Estate Retail Services, December 31, 2018
100.0
Ifo Business Climate Index. After a short-term recovery in
August 2018, it fell steadily to only 101 points in December.
80.0
This downward trend is also reflected in the two sub-indi-
cators. The value used to assess the current business situ- 60.0
ation fell from 109.1 to 104.7 over the course of the year.
The difficult year for the German automotive industry is un- 40.0
doubtedly one of the reasons for this, but in other areas of
the German economy, too, things are no longer quite mov- 20.0
ing as smoothly as in previous years. At the end of 2018, the
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
sub-indicator for future expectations was only 97.3 points. 2015 2016 2017 2018
However, this is not surprising given the many unresolved Source: CESifo GmbH
and smouldering risks to the global economy. Not only is
the trade conflict between the USA and China worrying,
leaving its first traces in the Chinese economy, but above all
the Damocles sword of an unregulated Brexit.
WHERE THE JOURNEY 2019 IS HEADING
IS UNCERTAIN
How the economy will develop in 2019 is still uncertain and
posed with many question marks. On the one hand, there
are positive impulses from a continuing flourishing labour DEVELOPMENT OF INFLATION RATE
market, from which the retail industry should benefit. GDP in %
growth, which is slowing down but should be above the
long-term average according to current forecasts, is also an 2.5
2.1
important framework condition for the retail industry. On
2.0
2.0
© BNP Paribas Real Estate Retail Services, December 31, 2018
the other hand, there are the external risks of a noticeably 2.0
1.7
1.7
cooling global economy, which would affect Germany as an
1.5
export country and further unsettle both companies and 1.5
consumers. However, the greatest risk, both economically
1.1
0.9
and psychologically, results from an unregulated and cha- 1.0
otic Brexit without any mandatory rules. This would further
0.5
fuel concerns and fears about the future, both in businesses
0.3
0.5
0.2
and among consumers. Against this background, a serious
forecast for 2019 can hardly be made at the beginning of
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
the year. It remains to be hoped, however, that reason will Forecast
Source: Destatis, forecast: BNP Paribas
ultimately prevail in the case of key risks, which would then
set the course for the successful development of the Ger-
man retail industry next year as well.RETAIL MARKET GERMANY 2019 OVERVIEW
RETAIL INVESTMENT
WEAKER THAN 2017, BUT ABOVE THE RETAIL INVESTMENTS IN GERMANY IN 2017 AND 2018
LONG-TERM AVERAGE Single investments in million €
Although the retail investment market, with a transaction Portfolio investments in million €
volume of 11.2 bn €, remains just under 19 % behind the
previous year’s result, it exceeded the ten-year average by 15,000
© BNP Paribas Real Estate Retail Services, December 31, 2018
a good 7 %. In view of the fact that the 10 bn € mark was
broken for the fourth time in a row, while the results be- 12,000
tween 2012 and 2014 fell short of this hurdle, it can be 6,042
said that the overall balance is moderate in times of fun- 9,000 4,922
damental transformation processes in the retail landscape.
A look at the size classes shows that the reduction can be 6,000
localised particularly in the segment up to 50 m €, where 7,767
6,283
turnover was 26 % lower than in 2017. The most notewor- 3,000
thy transactions, primarily large-volume highstreet proper-
ties in A-cities, include the ensemble Leipziger Platz 14-16 2017 2018
and the shopping centre Das Schloss in Berlin as well as
the Hanseviertel and Karstadt Sports in Hamburg. In addi-
tion to these prominent deals, the merger of Karstadt and RETAIL INVESTMENTS BY TYPE OF PROPERTY
Kaufhof also had a significant impact on the result. In sum- in %
mary, single investments accounted for 6.28 bn € (56 %),
while 4.92 bn € (44 %) were invested in portfolios.
12.9
DISCOUNT STORES / SUPERMARKETS AHEAD OF RETAIL / Discount store /
supermarket, discounter
OFFICE BUILDINGS AND DEPARTMENT STORES 39.2
23.5 Retail / office building
Compared to the previous year, only the department stores
Department store
emerged as winners in the distribution of turnover among
Shopping centre
the various uses: pushed by the merger of Karstadt and
Kaufhof, they increased by 151 % to 2.64 bn € and thus ac-
24.4
count for almost 24 %. All other types of property could
not build on their results from 2017 and have to accept
reductions of 30 to 40 %. Nevertheless, discount stores and © BNP Paribas Real Estate Retail Services, December 31, 2018
supermarkets (a good 39 %) and retail / office buildings (a
good 24 %) maintained their positions within the ranking
ahead of department stores. Shopping centres (just under
13 %) settled for fourth place due to the increasing uncer- RETAIL INVESTMENTS BY € CATEGORY
tainty in this segment. Single investments in %, total 6,283 million €
Portfolio investments in %, total 4,922 million €
DEALS BELOW AND ABOVE 100 M € BALANCE
53.5
60.0
© BNP Paribas Real Estate Retail Services, December 31, 2018
EACH OTHER OUT
50.0
The overall balanced development of the retail investment
market is underlined by the fact that, as in the previous
40.0
year, transactions under and over – 100 m € each account
26.8
for half of the total result. In the sales segment with at
23.7
23.5
23.4
30.0
least half a billion euros (a good 10 %), only the merger of
15.2
20.0
Karstadt and Kaufhof can be reported. The two midrange
10.9
10.5
7.9
categories between 25 and 100 m € together have a share 10.0
3.5
1.1
of 30 %, while smaller transactions up to 25 m € generate a
0.0
fifth of the volume. < 10 10 – < 25 25 – < 50 50 – < 100 100 – < 500 ≥ 500
million € million € million € million € million € million €
6|7A-LOCATIONS WITH HIGHER SHARE OF TURNOVER RETAIL INVESTMENTS IN THE A-LOCATIONS 2017 AND 2018
In contrast to the overall market, the A-locations (Berlin, 2017 in million €, total 4,149 million €
Cologne, Düsseldorf, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Munich, Stuttgart) 2018 in million €, total 4,007 million €
were almost able to maintain their previous year’s results:
With an investment volume of 4.0 bn €, their result is only 2,000
© BNP Paribas Real Estate Retail Services, December 31, 2018
3 % lower than in 2017, with Berlin (1.43 bn €) and Hamburg
1,430
(911 m €), the two largest German cities, leading the way.
1,500
For Hamburg, this is even the best result in recent years.
Cologne (390 m €), Munich (358 m €), Stuttgart (355 m €)
995
911
874
837
and Düsseldorf (345 m €), where more than 300 m € was 1,000
invested each, follow some way behind. Only the Main me-
570
533
tropolis Frankfurt, with 217 m €, achieved a significantly
390
358
355
345
500
lower volume compared to the other cities.
217
177
163
Berlin Cologne Düsseldorf Frankfurt Hamburg Munich Stuttgart
LIVELY MARKET ACTIVITY ALSO IN SMALL TOWNS
THANKS TO RETAIL PARK SEGMENT
In terms of single investments, smaller cities with up to SINGLE INVESTMENTS BY CITY CATEGORY
100,000 inhabitants are and remain the second-strongest in %
category after A-locations (just under 42 %)with a share of
almost 29 %. This is a clear indication that not only high- 100
street properties but also conveniently located retail parks
34.6
as well as supermarkets and discounters with tenants of 80
41.7
© BNP Paribas Real Estate Retail Services, December 31, 2018
high credit rating offer attractive investment opportunities
A-locations
outside the metropolises. One of the most significant trans-
60 >250,000 inhabitants
actions of a retail park is Kauf Park Göttingen, which for 21.4
11.4
00,000–250,000
1
this type of use represents one of the largest investments inhabitants
of recent years. By contrast, major cities between 100,000 40
20.0RETAIL MARKET GERMANY 2019 OVERVIEW
of just under 35 %, international investors remained at the DEVELOPMENT OF NET PRIME YIELD
level of the previous year and below the value reported for in %
the entire commercial real estate market (41 %). Retail / office buildings* Shopping centres
Specialist retail centres Specialised discount stores
STABLE PRICE DEVELOPMENT AFTER THE 8.0
© BNP Paribas Real Estate Retail Services, December 31, 2018
YIELD COMPRESSION
7.0
After the continuous yield compression of the previous
years and the already very high prices, the net prime yields 6.0
for highstreet properties initially reached their peak and
have been correspondingly stable over the past 12 months. 5.0
Berlin and Munich, which are the only locations below the
4.0
3 % limit with 2.90 %, remain at the top of the city compari-
son. Hamburg (3.00 %) and Frankfurt (3.10 %) follow closely 3.0
behind. The two metropolises Düsseldorf and Cologne, as
well as Stuttgart, are quoted at 3.20 %. 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
* Ø A-locations (Berlin, Cologne, Düsseldorf, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Munich, Stuttgart)
In the other market segments, only retail parks and single
specialised discount stores have become more expensive
since the middle of the year. In both cases, yields have fall- RETAIL INVESTMENTS BY ORIGIN OF CAPITAL
en by 10 basis points to 4.50 % and 5.30 %, respectively, and in %
a further yield compression cannot be excluded. Shopping
1.5 0.8
centres, on the other hand, are just as expensive as they
were 12 months ago at a peak of 4.00 %, and slightly falling 3.6
prices cannot be ruled out here. Germany
Europe
28.7
North America
FURTHER TRANSFORMATION PROCESSES: Middle East
YES, SENSE OF CRISIS: NO Others
65.4
Even if the result of the retail investment market in 2018
does not come close to the results of previous years, there
are no signs of real erosion processes. Both highstreet
properties and retail parks continue to be very attractive
to a wide range of investors – provided that criteria such © BNP Paribas Real Estate Retail Services, December 31, 2018
as location, letting situation and use adaptability are right
to meet future requirements. Especially, the shopping cen-
tre segment in particular demonstrated that the framework
conditions for a successful sales process must be right.
Whether a good result can be reported by the end of 2019
depends in particular on larger portfolio deals, which are
essential for a positive outcome.
8|9THE GERMAN RETAIL MARKETS
RETAIL IN THE MIDST OF CHANGE lease durations demanded by tenants or the structuring of
In no other market segment of the German real estate market leases that involve risk sharing between tenants and land-
are structures changing as quickly as in the retail sector. The lords, e. g. through turnover-based rental components, are
situation is characterised on the one hand by real adjustment now also playing an important role, particularly in the case
processes, but on the other hand also by many uncertainties of larger units.
and sometimes even fears regarding the future of the high
street. The main driver for many developments and discus-
sions is e-commerce, which is continuing to increase its share OVERALL DEMAND REMAINS GOOD
of total retail sales and at the same time recording above- The developments on the letting markets must be viewed in
average growth rates. The online business scores not only the same differentiated way as the socio-economic framework
with a comfortable order and fast delivery times, but in many conditions. For example, the top 10 German locations in 2018
cases also with very fair exchange or return conditions. What with an inner-city take-up of almost 193,000 m² and almost
it does not offer, however, is the emotional shopping expe- 430 lettings / openings exceeded their previous year’s results
rience of shopping, combined with upstream or downstream by 14 % and 3 % respectively, whereas the nationwide result
activities, which as an overall package result in a pleasant with 608,000 m² (-8 %) and around 1,170 deals (-11 %) shows
and interesting leisure time organisation. This will not change declines. In a more ambitious competitive environment, larger
in the future. Nevertheless, the increasing competitive pres- shopping metropolises with a wide range of complementary
sure from e-commerce is leading to adjustments – whether catering and leisure facilities appear to be better off than
in terms of rents, contract terms and conditions, re-letting many B- and C-cities. But this development does not apply
opportunities or retail concepts. But changes always offer op- across the board, as many smaller markets also offer attrac-
portunities, which the high street must and will face, just like tive framework conditions and are therefore the focus of re-
other sectors in the past. tailers. Evidence of this is that B-cities are increasingly being
considered in the expansion plans of brands such as Zalando
(e. g. Münster) or the Dutch department store chain Hema
TOP RENTS STABLE TO FALLING (e. g. Dortmund and Bonn). In the e-commerce age the trend
As already observed last year the pressure on rents has con- for catering to continue stirring up the letting market, which
tinued and reflects the increasing competition from online was clearly dominated by clothing in the past, continued in
business. However, a differentiated picture emerges here. 2018. Against this background, catering was able to increase
Many locations were also able to maintain the rent level, as its share of contracts concluded in 2018 by 4 percentage
the pressure on demand that had been built up for a long time points to more than 18 % over the last five years. Among the
has remained unchanged due to the very limited supply in the most prominent players in this sector are Hans im Glück and
top locations and retailers absolutely being keen to occupy L’Osteria, as well as the Cafe Extrablatt, which is not hesi-
these specific locations. In 38 of 64 cities regularly analysed tant towards opening premises in small towns. Nevertheless,
by BNP Paribas Real Estate, the top rent has not changed. the fashion sector dominated in 2018 with a good 30 % of all
However, 24 cities showed decreases. The reductions in the recorded lettings / openings in city centre locations and thus
individual locations range between 2 and 11 %. In contrast remains the most important player in the retail landscape.
to the previous year, two cities (Saarbrücken and Düsseldorf)
also recorded slightly rising top rents. The Rhineland metrop-
olis in particular was right at the top of the expansion list for GERMANY REMAINS A SAFE HAVEN ON
many chain stores. Across all the cities analysed, prime rents EXPANSION LISTS
fell by just under 2 % compared to the year before. The only A- When addressing e-commerce as an antagonist of high street
locations that recorded slight declines were Berlin (-3 %) and retailing, it should not be forgotten that digitisation is chang-
Hamburg (-2 %). The most expensive location remains Munich ing retail landscapes not only in Germany but globally, which
(370 €/m²), followed by Berlin (310 €/m²), Frankfurt (300 €/ is having a very different impact at national and even city lev-
m²), Düsseldorf (280 €/m²), Stuttgart (275 €/m²), Hamburg el. Against this background, Germany, with its numerous well-
(270 €/m²) and Cologne (265 €/m²). It should be noted, how- positioned inner cities that are characterised by the popula-
ever, that the top rent by definition only applies to a 100 m² tion but also by tourists and students, continues to be valued
standard shop with ideal conditions and thus represents only by international retailers as an economic engine in Europe.
a very small market segment. Other trends, such as shorter A particular feature of the 2018 letting activities was that aRETAIL MARKET GERMANY 2019 OVERVIEW
large number of renowned retailers such as Uniqlo, Topshop, ment store giants Karstadt and Kaufhof will use to present
Arket, Zalando and JD Sports, whose concepts are designed themselves after the merger, on the other hand, remains as
for larger shops, noticeably increased their pace of expansion. uncertain as it is exciting.
If one speaks about active labels, the way quickly leads to De-
cathlon, whereby the French sports manufacturer, unlike the
aforementioned players, is not primarily focused on central OUTLOOK
locations, but primarily on shopping centres as well as retail The many changes and adaptations to which city centre re-
park locations and city districts. The fact that fashion labels tail will continue to be confronted with do not only contain
in particular are pushing their way into Germany from abroad risks but also opportunities. The shopping experience itself
does not mean that brands from other sectors are not also will continue to be of great importance to many customers
continuing to expand their branch network in Germany: in this in the future and will stand for leisure quality that cannot be
context, the expansive trio of eyewear suppliers Ace & Tate, offered by even the best organised online trade. This fact is
VIU and Mister Spex, as well as the Danish furniture store underlined by the fact that more and more online retailers are
Søstrene Grene, the Dutch department store chain Hema and also opening high street shops, as they have recognised that
the Swedish watch brand Daniel Wellington are worth men- the future of retail is likely to lie in an intelligent combina-
tioning. In addition to retailers who have pushed ahead with tion of vertical distribution structures in order to satisfy the
their expansion, there are also those who are withdrawing differentiated needs and expectations of consumers. It must
from Germany or closing branches: Clas Ohlson and Stadium also be borne in mind that it is not only retail that has to face
will no longer be represented in Hamburg and thus in Ger- changing ways of working and living. The office markets are
many in the future, while retailers such as Esprit, Tom Tailor also confronted with major challenges, for example in con-
and Habitat are increasingly giving up shops. The fact that a nection with the rapidly growing importance of coworking
restructuring can also mean a new beginning is proven by the concepts. The fundamental demand on the part of retailers
clothing company SinnLeffers, which is not afraid to reposi- remains strong enough to actively and successfully develop
tion itself as SiNN. The joint new concept that the depart- city centre retail.
INDEX DEVELOPMENT OF TOP RENTS BY CITY CATEGORY* (2009 = 100)
A-locations >500,000 250,000–500,000 100,000–250,000KEY MARKET FIGURES FOR THE MOST IMPORTANT RETAIL LOCATIONS IN GERMANY
Purchasing Turnover Top rent Top rent Purchase price
Population
City power index index Prime shopping streets (net) (net) multiplier
01.01.2018
2018 2018 2017¹) 2018¹) retail property²)
per inhabitant per inhabitant
absolute in € / m² / month in € / m² / month from to³)
(DE = 100) (DE = 100)
Aachen 246,272 94.3 118.2 Adalbertstrasse, Krämerstrasse 110 100 17.0 20.5
Augsburg 292,851 98.1 124.1 Annastrasse 100 90 17.0 20.0
Bad Homburg 53,884 149.9 120.7 Louisenstrasse 60 55 16.5 18.0
Berlin 3,613,495 91.2 102.6 Tauentzienstrasse, Kurfürstendamm, 320 310 23.5 31.0
Friedrichstrasse, Alexanderplatz, Hackescher
Markt, Schlossstrasse
Bielefeld 332,552 92.9 124.7 Bahnhofstrasse 135 135 16.5 19.0
Bochum 365,529 94.0 116.3 Kortumstrasse 80 80 14.5 16.5
Bonn 325,490 110.5 115.9 Remigiusstrasse, Sternstrasse 130 120 17.5 22.0
Braunschweig 248,023 106.4 150.8 Hutfiltern, Damm, Schuhstrasse, Sack 95 90 17.0 20.0
Bremen 568,006 92.4 110.4 Obernstrasse, Sögestrasse 120 115 17.5 20.5
Chemnitz 246,855 88.4 105.2 Strasse der Nationen 50 50 13.0 15.0
Cologne 1,080,394 105.4 130.4 Schildergasse, Hohe Strasse, Neumarkt, 265 265 23.5 29.0
Ehrenstrasse, Breite Strasse, Mittelstrasse,
Wallrafplatz
Darmstadt 158,254 108.3 118.7 Ernst-Ludwig-Strasse 75 75 15.0 18.0
Dortmund 586,600 91.5 114.8 Westenhellweg, Ostenhellweg 230 230 18.0 22.0
Dresden 551,072 90.9 108.1 Prager Strasse, Seestrasse 100 100 18.0 22.0
Duisburg 498,110 82.8 92.7 Königstrasse, Kuhstrasse 45 40 13.0 15.5
Düsseldorf 617,280 117.1 133.7 Königsallee, Schadowstrasse, Flinger 275 280 23.5 29.0
Strasse, Mittelstrasse, Grabenstrasse
Erfurt 212,988 91.8 105.1 Anger 90 90 17.0 20.0
Erlangen 110,998 119.7 128.4 Nürnberger Strasse, Hauptstrasse 65 60 15.0 18.0
Essen 583,393 96.4 113.5 Kettwiger Strasse, Limbecker Strasse 90 80 17.0 21.5
Flensburg 88,519 89.0 159.6 Holm 85 85 15.0 18.0
Frankfurt am Main 746,878 113.9 116.9 Zeil, Grosse Bockenheimer Strasse, 300 300 23.5 29.5
Goethestrasse, Biebergasse, Steinweg,
Kaiserstrasse/Rossmarkt
Freiburg im Breisgau 229,636 96.5 146.1 Kaiser-Joseph-Strasse 180 180 17.5 20.5
Gelsenkirchen 260,305 79.3 90.7 Bahnhofstrasse 40 40 12.5 15.5
Göttingen 119,529 94.8 133.8 Weender Strasse, Groner Strasse 90 90 15.0 17.0
Hagen 187,730 90.1 111.5 Elberfelder Strasse, Mittelstrasse 40 40 12.5 15.0
Halle (Saale) 239,173 83.2 84.9 Leipziger Strasse 70 65 12.5 15.5
Hamburg 1,830,584 109.7 122.6 Spitalerstrasse, Mönckebergstrasse, 275 270 24.5 30.5
Neuer Wall, Gerhofstrasse, Poststrasse,
Grosse Bleichen, Jungfernstieg,
Hohe Bleichen, Gänsemarkt
Hannover 535,061 101.4 128.4 Grosse/Kleine Packhofstrasse, Georgstrasse, 200 195 19.0 23.5
Bahnhofstrasse, Karmarschstrasse,
Luisenstrasse
Heidelberg 160,601 97.9 117.6 Hauptstrasse 120 115 19.5 22.5
Ingolstadt 135,244 118.3 174.4 Ludwigstrasse 70 65 15.5 19.0
Karlsruhe 311,919 102.4 121.8 Kaiserstrasse 100 95 19.0 22.0
Kassel 200,736 92.7 134.8 Obere Königsstrasse 115 115 15.0 17.5
Kiel 247,943 87.8 123.0 Holstenstrasse 70 70 15.0 17.5
Koblenz 113,844 98.4 170.1 Löhrstrasse 80 75 14.0 16.0
Krefeld 226,699 99.0 130.2 Hochstrasse 50 50 14.0 16.5
Leipzig 581,980 87.4 93.4 Petersstrasse, Grimmaische Strasse, 120 120 18.5 23.0
Nikolaistrasse, Hainstrasse, Neumarkt
Leverkusen 163,577 102.9 110.3 Wiesdorfer Platz 35 35 18.0 22.0
Lübeck 216,318 91.1 141.0 Breite Strasse, Holstenstrasse 90 90 18.0 21.5
Magdeburg 238,478 88.1 106.1 Breiter Weg 30 30 14.0 15.5
Mainz 215,110 106.3 115.5 Am Brand, Schusterstrasse, Stadthausstrasse 110 110 17.0 20.0
Mannheim 307,997 99.6 151.0 Planken, Kurpfalzstrasse 160 150 18.5 22.5
Moers 103,949 99.0 112.3 Steinstrasse 60 60 13.0 15.0
Mönchengladbach 262,188 93.0 115.7 Hindenburgstrasse 40 40 13.5 15.5
Munich 1,456,039 134.3 149.3 Kaufingerstrasse, Marienplatz, Neuhauser 370 370 24.5 31.5
Strasse, Maximilian-, Wein-, Theatiner-,
Residenzstrasse, Sendlinger Strasse, Tal,
Hohenzollernstrasse, Leopoldstrasse
Münster 313,559 102.6 140.0 Ludgeristrasse, Prinzipalmarkt, Salzstrasse, 190 190 18.5 22.0
Rothenburg
Neuss 153,810 106.9 121.0 Büchel, Niederstrasse, Oberstrasse 50 50 13.0 15.5
Nuremberg 515,201 104.0 135.4 Karolinenstrasse, Breite Gasse, 150 150 19.0 22.5
Kaiserstrasse, Königstrasse
Offenbach am Main 167,081 93.0 97.8 Frankfurter Strasse 40 40 13.5 15.5
Oldenburg 167,081 100.4 144.6 Achternstrasse, Lange Strasse 100 95 14.5 17.0
Osnabrück 164,374 96.7 147.2 Grosse Strasse 135 130 17.0 20.0
Paderborn 149,075 94.7 106.5 Westernstrasse, Marienplatz 90 90 14.5 16.5
Potsdam 175,710 98.2 94.3 Brandenburger Strasse 70 70 17.0 20.0RETAIL MARKET GERMANY 2019 OVERVIEW
Purchasing Turnover Top rent Top rent Purchase price
Population
City power index index Prime shopping streets (net) (net) multiplier
01.01.2018
2018 2018 2017¹) 2018¹) retail property²)
per inhabitant per inhabitant
absolute in € / m² / month in € / m² / month from to³)
(DE = 100) (DE = 100)
Recklinghausen 113,360 94.8 100.0 Breite Strasse, Markt, Kunibertistrasse 30 30 12.5 14.5
Regensburg 150,894 111.8 166.6 Pfauengasse, Weisse-Lilien-Strasse, 70 65 16.0 19.0
© BNP Paribas Real Estate Retail Services, December 31, 2018
Königsstrasse
Rostock 208,409 86.3 96.3 Kröpeliner Strasse 80 75 15.0 17.5
Saarbrücken 180,966 92.0 140.4 Bahnhofstrasse 75 80 14.0 16.5
Schwerin 95,797 90.3 107.4 Marienplatz 30 30 12.5 15.0
Siegen 102,337 92.4 154.8 Bahnhofstrasse 40 40 12.5 15.0
Stuttgart 632,743 113.2 130.9 Königstrasse, Stiftstrasse, Calwer Strasse, 275 275 23.5 29.0
Schulstrasse, Kirchstrasse
Trier 110,013 88.4 185.5 Simeonstrasse, Hauptmarkt, Brotstrasse, 125 125 17.5 21.5
Grabenstrasse, Fleischstrasse
Ulm 125,596 110.7 144.7 Bahnhofstrasse, Hirschstrasse 135 135 15.5 18.5
Wiesbaden 278,654 110.9 122.9 Kirchgasse, Langgasse, Marktstrasse, 140 135 18.0 22.5
Wilhelmstrasse
Wuppertal 353,590 94.0 93.5 Poststrasse, Alte Freiheit 75 70 14.5 16.5
Würzburg 126,635 103.0 201.4 Schönbornstrasse, Kürschnerhof 135 135 18.0 21.5
¹) Applies to typical 100 m² standard shop with following quality features: ²) Applies to prime area
▸▸ most frequented area in the city ▸▸ at least 50 % of rental income from retail premises
▸▸ single-storey rectangular ground-plan
▸▸ step-free entrance ³) In individual cases, these multipliers can sometimes be considerably higher as the result
▸▸ at least 6m frontage of special circumstances.
Sources: GfK Geomarketing GmbH, BNP Paribas Real Estate, Einwohner- / Gemeindeverzeichnis
DEFINITIONS
GFK PURCHASING POWER INDEX of residence is used to calculate the GfK retail turnover. It
The GfK purchasing power provides information on the dis- therefore reflects retail consumer spending at the point of
posable income of consumers by place of residence. The GfK sale.
purchasing power can be described in simplified terms as the
sum of all net income which is available to the population in The index value always relates to the national average. An
a year and region. It is therefore the most important indicator index of 110 means that retail turnover per inhabitant in
for consumption potential in this region. this region is 10 % above the national average. An index of
90 means that retail turnover per inhabitant in this region is
The index value always relates to the national average. An 10 % below the national average.
index of 110 means that inhabitants in this region have 10 %
more purchasing power than the national average. An index GFK CENTRALITY INDEX
of 90 means that the purchasing power of inhabitants in this The GfK centrality index provides retailers with an objective
region is 10 % below the national average. benchmark to identify which cities are managing to attract
and retain a particularly high level of purchasing power with
GFK RETAIL TURNOVER INDEX their existing range of retail services. A centrality index of
The GfK retail turnover shows the forecasted retail turnover 100 means that a city’s inflow and outflow of purchasing
in the individual regions. In contrast to GfK purchasing power, power are in balance. The index is therefore of great impor-
retail spending by the place of purchase and not by the place tance for location planning and assessment.
12 | 13MOST ACTIVE
RETAILERS 2018
Different sectors –
different
expansion profiles*
INTERNATIONAL FASHION LABELS CATERING COMPANIES
Hunkemöller 15 Hans im Glück 12
Only 15 Cafe Extrablatt 9
Jack & Jones 7 L’Osteria 6
TK Maxx 7 dean&david 5
Boggi Milano 5 Subway 5
JD Sports 5 Five Guys 4
Levi’s 5 Starbucks 4
Kentucky Fried
Vero Moda 5 Chicken 3
Norah 4 Mia Gelateria 3
Arket 3 Nordsee 3
*Number of leases / openings nationwide in city locationsRETAIL MARKET GERMANY 2019 OVERVIEW
BODYCARE / HEALTH SELECTED RETAILERS
OF OTHER SECTORS
Rossmann 12 Søstrene Grene 11
dm 11 Hema 8
Rituals 10 Osiander 8
Ace & Tate 6 Rewe 8
Fielmann 6 Decathlon 7
VIU 6 Daniel Wellington 6
Sephora* 5 Hugendubel 6
Mister Spex 4 Depot 5
Douglas 3 Doc Martens 3
eyes + more 3 Lindt & Sprüngli 3
*including shop-in-shop-concepts
50 %
of the most active
retailers in the
bodycare / health
segment are
eyewear labels.
14 | 15AACHEN
“Aachen achieves the second-highest footfall in the
city category of 100,000 to 250,000 inhabitants.”
Aachen lies in an exposed location, borders on the Nether- and repeatedly puts the Karlstadt in an international spotlight.
lands and Belgium and has always played an important role The city and the retail industry benefit from this reputation, as
in the history of Europe. This was last made clear in 2019 with the tourists attracted are an important economic factor.
the signing of the Aachen Treaty between Germany and France
OVERVIEW OF A-LOCATIONS
Location Category Length Footfall / h Top rent Chain-store ratio Selected new leases / openings
Adalbertstrasse Mass market 550 m 5,054 100 €/m² 85 % Fielmann (600 m²)
Holzgraben Mass market 110 m 1,631 35 €/m² 60 % Brax (280 m²)
© BNP Paribas Real Estate Retail Services, December 31, 2018
RENTS IN DOWNTOWN UNDER PRESSURE several lettings which prove that retailers in Aachen continue
Uncertainties about the further development of the city centre to see potential in the long term. The relocation of the tex-
are causing demand to be restrained in some areas. Although tile company SiNN to the former Horten building (Komphaus-
the top location Adalbertstrasse is still in demand, especial- badstrasse) planned for 2021, for example, is likely to vitalise
ly in the area around the Aquis Plaza shopping centre, the the Dahmengraben. Overall, owners in many places are now
maximum rent (100 €/m²) is coming under noticeable pres- trying to retain tenants by offering discounts or finding new
sure (-9 %). In particular, uncertain development sites, such users. This in turn offers smaller and young concepts in par-
as the old Wehmeyer House, are weighing down sentiment ticular the opportunity to secure new shops in the cathedral
both in Aachen’s main shopping mile and in other locations. city. The retail landscape is therefore in a state of upheaval
In several places, retail space is also vanishing in favour of and consolidation, which at the same time offers opportunities
alternative use concepts. All the more pleasing are therefore for innovation and further development.
DEVELOPMENT OF TOP RENT AND PURCHASE PRICE MULTIPLIER TOP RENT – INTER-CITY COMPARISON
Top rent in € / m² Purchase price multiplier in €/m²
250 € 25.0 150
130
125
120
200 € 20.0 120
95
100
90
150 € 15.0 90
80
100 € 10.0 60
50 € 5.0 30
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Osnabrück Trier Bonn Aachen Karlsruhe Braun Essen
schweig
© BNP Paribas Real Estate Retail Services, December 31, 2018 © BNP Paribas Real Estate Retail Services, December 31, 2018RETAIL MARKET GERMANY 2019 AACHEN
A-LOCATIONS WITH THE MOST IMPORTANT KEY INDICATORS
Top rents € / m² / month
Footfall / h
Adalbertstrasse 100
Holzgraben 35
Mass market
N BE
Rathaus
DAHMENGRA
1,631
H&M
KRÄMERSTR.
5,054
BEN
A
ZGR
HOL
ADALBERTSTR.
Aquis Plaza
Dom Galeria
Kaufhof
Elisengarten
Elisengalerie
Day of count: 09.06.2018
NEW LETTINGS PROVIDE FOR REVITALISATION that opened in the old town. In Adalbertstrasse, Fielmann’s
The lively area between the catering dominated Markt and enlargement is particularly striking: the optician has moved to
Münsterplatz squares is dynamic. In the Krämerstrasse, which the neighbouring store and operates a shop of around 600 m²
connects both squares, four leases from different sectors could there. Despite the continuing uncertainties, we can therefore
be observed. In addition, the Café Isabella (Münsterplatz) and look back on an overall pleasing year.
the restaurant Karl’s (Markt) are two new catering concepts
SOCIO-ECONOMIC DATA REGISTERED LETTINGS
Aachen Germany Top sector Chain-store ratio
2018 Trend 2018 Trend Number Take-up
(take-up) (internationality)
Bodycare / Health
Population (000) 246 82,792 A-locations total 7 1,570 m² (1,030 m²) 100 % (29 %)
Bodycare / Health
Employees subject to social insurance (000) 133 32,870 Adalbertstrasse 2 680 m² (680 m²)
100 % (50 %)
Unemployment rate (%) 7.0 5.2 Holzgraben 1 280 m² Clothing (280 m²) 100 % (0 %)
Bodycare / Health
Purchasing power index 94.3 100.0 Other A-locations 4 610 m² (350 m²) 100 % (25 %)
Turnover ratio 118.2 100.0
Other locations 12 21,380 m² Clothing (10,530 m²) 67 % (8 %)
Centrality ratio 1.25 1.00 © BNP Paribas Real Estate Retail Services, December 31, 2018
Overnight stays 2017 (million) 1.0 459.5
TREND 2019
Top rent Demand total
Supply Demand international
Key money Chain-store ratio
© BNP Paribas Real Estate Retail Services, December 31, 2018
16 | 17BERLIN
“Nowhere were more shops let and opened in 2018
than in the capital’s prime locations.”
Like no other German city, Berlin is in the focus of retailers. are being brought into play more and more frequently and
Nevertheless, there are also signs of a shift in the capital from extensively, e.g. as expansion costs or rent-free periods. And
a landlord to a tenant market. The letting market is booming lease durations are also tending to become shorter.
in principle, but the balance of power has changed: incentives
OVERVIEW OF A-LOCATIONS
Location Category Length Footfall / h Top rent Chain-store ratio Selected new leases / openings
Tauentzienstrasse Mass market 500 m 6,061 310 €/m² 97 % Hugendubel (1,500 m²)
Mass market 5,948 220 €/m² Arket (1,800 m²), Muji (1,720 m²),
Kurfürstendamm Upmarket 3,500 m 190 €/m² 89 % Five Guys (330 m²), Rimowa (200 m²),
Luxury 1,473 185 €/m² LIU JO (110 m²), Pikolinos (70 m²)
Alexanderplatz Mass market 300 m 4,670 190 €/m² 89 % Uniqlo (820 m²)
Rosenthaler Strasse Mass market 500 m 3,370 110 €/m² 73 % Hunkemöller (200 m²), Oro Vivo (160 m²)
Arket (570 m²), Brax (170 m²),
Neue Schönhauser Strasse Mass market 200 m 1,909 110 €/m² 94 %
Daniel Wellington (75 m²), Dr. Martens (60 m²)
Mass market/ Marcell von Berlin (860 m²), Vapiano (520 m²),
Friedrichstrasse 3,300 m 3,729 85 €/m² 91 %
Upmarket Stadtsalat (400 m²), Lush (200 m²)
Schlossstrasse Mass market 1,700 m 3,208 85 €/m² 84 % HIT (2,500 m²), Hema (1,300 m²)
Wilmersdorfer Strasse Mass market 1,900 m 4,685 75 €/m² 80 % Decathlon (3,000 m²)
Münzstrasse Mass market 230 m – 70 €/m² 72 % New Era (220 m²), Ivy & Oak (70 m²)
© BNP Paribas Real Estate Retail Services, December 31, 2018
TOP RENTS DECLINING IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS are quoted for Tauentzienstrasse at its peak. Kurfürsten
The pressure on high street retailers does not leave the rents damm is also on a high long-term level with 220 €/m² (-8 %)
untouched. In several locations the top rent could not main- in the mass market location, 190 €/m² in the upmarket seg-
tain its level. However, it must also be taken into account that ment (-12 %) and 185 €/m² for the luxury part (stable). In
this is still at a high level and that Berlin is, after Munich, the this respect, a normalisation can be assumed in this context.
country’s most expensive city. For example, 310 €/m² (-3 %) The Alexanderplatz, where the renovated Alexanderhaus has
DEVELOPMENT OF TOP RENT AND PURCHASE PRICE MULTIPLIER TOP RENT – INTER-CITY COMPARISON
Top rent in € / m² Purchase price multiplier in €/m²
370
350 € 35.0 400
300 € 30.0 350
300
310
280
275
270
300
265
250 € 25.0
250
200 € 20.0
200
150 € 15.0
150
100 € 10.0
100
50 € 5.0 50
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Munich Berlin Frankfurt Düsseldorf Stuttgart Hamburg Cologne
© BNP Paribas Real Estate Retail Services, December 31, 2018 © BNP Paribas Real Estate Retail Services, December 31, 2018RETAIL MARKET GERMANY 2019 BERLIN
A-LOCATIONS WITH THE MOST IMPORTANT KEY INDICATORS
TR.
Zoologischer
Footfall / h
SER S
Garten
HAU
1,909
ROSENTHALER STR.
N
SCHÖ
Mass market Stilwerk
Bikini
Berlin
ALTE
Zoom
Upmarket
MÜN
6,061 Hackesche Höfe Galeria Primark
ZSTR
Luxury
TAU .
5,948 Kaufhof
ENTZ
IENS
ATZ
TR.
PL
1,473
DER
3,370
XAN
Karstadt
ALE
MM
STENDA
Neues 3,729
KURFÜR
Kudamm Carré
KaDeWe Fernsehturm
4,670
Alexa
Upper East
Schloss-Strassen-
Center Rosmarin Karree
Forum Steglitz
Top rents € / m² / month
FRIEDRICHSTRASSE Galeries Lafayette
SE
RAS
Boulevard Berlin
SST
Tauentzienstrasse 310
L0S
The Q 220
SCH
Kurfürstendamm
Alexanderplatz 190
Das Schloss
3,208 Rosenthaler Strasse 110
Day of count: 09.06.2018 Friedrichstrasse 85
r ecently opened with Foot Locker, the Japanese fashion chain LOTS GOING ON ON THE KU’DAMM
Uniqlo or the make-up brand Nyx, has a stable top rent of Of the 53 registered lettings or openings, 18 are in Ku’damm
190 €/m². Catering is currently keen to expand, targeting alone, which speaks for the strong demand on the one hand,
tourists and office workers in particular and looking for high- but also for the comparatively larger supply available on the
frequency spots. With this in mind, the Austrian Vegan-Burger other. New deals in this location include the H&M concept
chain Swing Kitchen, as well as Cafe Einstein and Vapiano, Arket (1,800 m²), the Japanese furnishing chain Muji (1,720 m²)
have chosen Friedrichstrasse as their new location. and the luxury luggage brand Rimowa (200 m²).
SOCIO-ECONOMIC DATA REGISTERED LETTINGS
Berlin Germany Top sector Chain-store ratio
2018 Trend 2018 Trend Number Take-up
(take-up) (internationality)
Population (000) 3,613 82,792 A-locations total 53 23,930 m² Clothing (7,190 m²) 92 % (57 %)
Employees subject to social insurance (000) 1,476 32,870 Kurfürstendamm 18 7,360 m² Clothing (4,010 m²) 100 % (61 %)
Friedrichstrasse 8 2,460 m² Catering (1,270 m²) 88 % (50 %)
Unemployment rate (%) 8.1 5.2
Bodycare / Health
Alexanderplatz 7 3,020 m² (950 m²) 100 % (57 %)
Purchasing power index 91.2 100.0
Schlossstrasse 5 6,520 m² Food (2,980 m²) 80 % (20 %)
Turnover ratio 102.6 100.0
Neue Schön-
hauserstrasse 5 990 m² Clothing (740 m²) 100 % (80 %)
Centrality ratio 1.12 1.00
Rosenthaler
Strasse 3 610 m² Catering (250 m²) 100 % (67 %)
Overnight stays 2017 (million) 31.2 459.5
Münzstrasse 2 290 m² Clothing (290 m²) 50 % (50 %)
TREND 2019 Wilmersdorfer Department stores
Strasse 1 590 m² (590 m²) 100 % (100 %)
Tauentzien Household articles /
Top rent Demand total
strasse 1 150 m² furnishings (150 m²) 0 % (0 %)
Supply Demand international Other A-locations 3 1,940 m² Leisure (1,000 m²) 100 % (67 %)
Key money Chain-store ratio Other locations 126 101,270 m² Food (22,490 m²) 83 % (25 %)
© BNP Paribas Real Estate Retail Services, December 31, 2018 © BNP Paribas Real Estate Retail Services, December 31, 2018
18 | 19BONN
“Within the B-cities, Bonn has the second-highest number
of lettings / openings in A-locations in 2018.”
As the former federal capital, Bonn continues to enjoy a high largest contiguous pedestrian zones in Germany due to the
degree of popularity and has a large number of cultural, leisure high number of old buildings, the possibility of round trips and
and educational facilities. The attractiveness of the city on the the almost complete liberation from car traffic, and provides a
Rhine is also reflected in the positive population trend and the unique flair for strolling and shopping.
rising number of overnight stays. The city centre is one of the
OVERVIEW OF A-LOCATIONS
Location Category Length Footfall / h Top rent Chain-store ratio Selected new leases / openings
Remigiusstrasse Mass market 200 m 5,302 120 €/m² 90 % Topshop (750 m²)
Only & Sons (310 m²), VIU (290 m²),
Sternstrasse Mass market 300 m 4,524 120 €/m² 83 %
Daniel Wellington (50 m²)
© BNP Paribas Real Estate Retail Services, December 31, 2018
DEMAND SHIFTS FOCUS and the extensive renovation of the main railway station, this
The transformation in the German inner cities is not leaving micro-location will present itself as a new entrance gate to
Bonn untouched either and is causing significant shifts in the the city centre in the future. As the development progresses,
retail market. The increasing focus of customers on conve the adjacent Poststrasse is already gaining in importance: for
nience, quality of stay and mixed-use can also be seen in the many chain stores in particular, the mass market location
new lettings in the pedestrian zone. With Aldi and Rewe, two is becoming more and more interesting, as they expect the
food retailers have secured space here. While Aldi took space opening of Primark to generate a higher frequency. This shift
in the Poststrasse near Karstadt as part of a marketplace in demand is at the expense of other prime locations: both
concept, Rewe will open in the Maximilian-Center, which will in Remigiusstrasse (-8 %) and Sternstrasse (-4 %), the prime
be launched in autumn 2019 with Primark as an anchor ten- rent fell to 120 €/m².
ant. Together with the mixed-use development “Urban Soul”
DEVELOPMENT OF TOP RENT AND PURCHASE PRICE MULTIPLIER TOP RENT – INTER-CITY COMPARISON
Top rent in € / m² Purchase price multiplier in €/m²
250 € 25.0 150
135
130
125
115
115
110
200 € 20.0 120 120
150 € 15.0 90
100 € 10.0 60
50 € 5.0 30
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Würzburg Osnabrück Trier Bonn Bremen Heidelberg Mainz
© BNP Paribas Real Estate Retail Services, December 31, 2018 © BNP Paribas Real Estate Retail Services, December 31, 2018RETAIL MARKET GERMANY 2019 BONN
A-LOCATIONS WITH THE MOST IMPORTANT KEY INDICATORS
Top rents € / m² / month
Footfall / h
Remigiusstrasse 120
Sternstrasse 120
Mass market Beethoven-
Haus
MediaMarkt
4,524
WENZELGASSE
Alter Friedhof STERNSTR. Altes Rathaus
MARKT
DR
Zara
EIE
C
K
Galeria Stadtgarten
R.
Kaufhof SST 5,302
Karstadt
IGIU
Kurfürstliches
REM
H&M Schloss
.
TSTR
POS
Maximilian- Bonner
center Münster
Akademisches
Kunstmuseum
Hofgarten
Kreuzkirche
Day of count: 09.06.2018 Rheinufer
MOVEMENT IN THE CITY – VARIOUS strasse has taken the lead, including the expansive watch la-
LOCATIONS INVOLVED bel Daniel Wellington. In addition to the aforementioned Post-
In the preferred locations, 2018 saw a very lively letting activ- strasse, A-locations such as Wenzelgasse were also pleased
ity, so that a total of 11 contracts were recorded, 82 % of which to welcome new retailers. Here the Dutch department store
were concluded by chain stores. With four new tenants, Stern- Hema opened its doors directly on Markt (500 m²).
SOCIO-ECONOMIC DATA REGISTERED LETTINGS
Bonn Germany Top sector Chain-store ratio
2018 Trend 2018 Trend Number Take-up
(take-up) (internationality)
Population (000) 325 82,792 A-locations total 11 4,910 m² Clothing (1,190 m²) 83 % (50 %)
Employees subject to social insurance (000) 177 32,870 Sternstrasse 4 1,150 m² Catering (500 m²) 75 % (75 %)
Unemployment rate (%) 6.4 5.2 Remigiusstrasse 1 750 m² Clothing (750 m²) 100 % (100 %)
Purchasing power index 110.5 100.0 Other A-locations 7 3,010 m² Food (1,000 m²) 86 % (29 %)
Turnover ratio 115.9 100.0
Other locations 17 12,230 m² Food (5,710 m²) 88 % (18 %)
Centrality ratio 1.05 1.00 © BNP Paribas Real Estate Retail Services, December 31, 2018
Overnight stays 2017 (million) 1.6 459.5
TREND 2019
Top rent Demand total
Supply Demand international
Key money Chain-store ratio
© BNP Paribas Real Estate Retail Services, December 31, 2018
20 | 21BRAUNSCHWEIG
“Braunschweig achieves the third-highest turnover
index within the Top 27.”
Only a few kilometres from the state capital Hannover and nomic data, continuously growing employment figures and a
standing out with a turnover index of 151, the third highest high quality of life. The local retail industry reaches far into
level among the considered locations: The Lion City Braun the peripheral area, which underlines the centrality index of
schweig manages to unite this. At the same time, Lower more than 1.4.
Saxony’s second largest city convinces with outstanding eco-
OVERVIEW OF A-LOCATIONS
Location Category Length Footfall / h Top rent Chain-store ratio Selected new leases / openings
Damm Mass market 250 m 4,084 90 €/m² 75 % –
Hutfiltern Mass market 100 m – 90 €/m² 60 % –
Sack Mass market 150 m 3,814 80 €/m² 55 % Decathlon (2,900 m²), Rewe (1,600 m²)
© BNP Paribas Real Estate Retail Services, December 31, 2018
TOP RENTS SLIGHTLY DECLINING by recent deals and openings, among which there are also
As in other locations, the competition with e-commerce in the some true heavyweights. Shortly before Christmas, the French
Braunschweig shopping miles does not leave the rents for re- sporting goods discounter Decathlon opened a store of almost
tail shops unaffected. In addition, visible vacancies in some 2,900 m² in the former City-Point and the future Robert-Koch
of the A-locations are also depressing prices. Accordingly, quarter. In March, Rewe will also open a sales area there of
the top rents were not quite able to maintain the previous around 850 m². The Burggasse development, which plans to
year’s level. They fell in the shopping streets Damm as well convert the former Burgpassage into an open shopping street,
as in Hutfiltern by 5 €/m² to now 90 €/m² and by 5 €/m² to could prove to be ground breaking for the further develop-
80 €/m² in the micro-location Sack. However, shops in pedes- ment of inner-city retail.
trian precincts are certainly interesting for retailers, as shown
DEVELOPMENT OF TOP RENT AND PURCHASE PRICE MULTIPLIER TOP RENT – INTER-CITY COMPARISON
Top rent in € / m² Purchase price multiplier in €/m²
250 € 25.0 140
110
120
200 € 20.0
100
100
95
100
90
90
80
150 € 15.0
80
100 € 10.0 60
40
50 € 5.0
20
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Mainz Aachen Dresden Karlsruhe Braun Erfurt Essen
schweig
© BNP Paribas Real Estate Retail Services, December 31, 2018 © BNP Paribas Real Estate Retail Services, December 31, 2018You can also read
