Rethinking Security - Civil Security I - Evangelische Landeskirche in Baden

Page created by Micheal Cortez
 
CONTINUE READING
Rethinking Security - Civil Security I - Evangelische Landeskirche in Baden
Civil
                                         Security
         I                     II              III          IV   V

               Rethinking Security
                              From military
                             to civil security
                         Towards 2040: a scenario
                                         Abridged version

Becker, Ralf & Maass, Stefan &
Schneider-Harpprecht, Christoph [Eds.]
2                                                                                                                                                         CONTENTS

      CONTENTS
    Foreword.  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 3

    1      Introduction .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 5
    1.1 Europe faces a choice: Militarisation or a transition to civil security . . . . . . . . . . . . .  5
    1.2 The starting point: The resolution of the Regional Synod. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  6
    1.3 How the “Rethinking Security” scenario was created: The scenario technique. . . . . . .  6
    1.4 What is our vision in practical terms? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  6
    1.5 Who should bring about the transformation?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  7
    1.6 Focus on the role of Germany . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  8
    1.7 Factual basis and note regarding copyright. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  8
    1.8 Full-length version and distribution of the scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  8

    2      The positive scenario: „Sustainable civil security“ .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 9
    2.1 Von 2018 bis 2040 – Meilensteine der Entwicklung . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  9
    2.2 The pillars of a German sustainable civil security policy from the year 2025 onwards . .  14
           I          Just foreign relations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  14
           II         Sustainable development in the EU’s neighbourhood countries. . . . . . . . . . . . .  14
           III        Participation in the international security architecture (EU, OSCE, NATO, UN). . .  16
           IV         Resilient democracy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  18
           V          Conversion of the federal armed forces and the armaments industry. . . . . . . . .  23

    3      Civil security in numbers .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 25

    4      A scenario extrapolating current trends: “Creeping Militarisation” .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 26

    5      A negative scenario: “Close to the abyss” .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 29

    6      Bibliography .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 32

    Impressum:

    Edited by Ralf Becker, Stefan Maass & Christoph Schneider-Harpprecht (Eds.)
    on behalf of the Regional Protestant Church Council
    Year of publication: 2019
    Title: Rethinking Security: From military to civil security
    Design: Zentrum für Kommunikation, Ulrike Fuhry, www.ekiba.de
    Evangelische Landeskirche in Baden, Postfach 2269, 76010 Karlsruhe

    Translated from the original German by Gordon Matthews
PREFACE                                                                                               3

 PREFACE TO THE INTERNATIONAL EDITION
 OF “RETHINKING SECURITY”
I am delighted that one year after the publi-      The resolution states:
cation of “Sicherheit neu denken – Von der         “Committed work for peace is rooted in
militärischen zur zivilen Sicherheitspolitik”      prayer and worship. Prayers for peace in the
(„Rethinking Security - from military to civil     world are an integral part of many church ser-
security”), this book is now appearing in both     vices. In addition, the annual ecumenical
English and French. When we published the          “Peace Decade” and the International Day of
scenario, “Rethinking Security”, in April 2018,    Prayer for Peace (21 September) will continue
we never imagined that there would be such         to be occasions for celebrating worship ser-
a high demand for it in Germany. We already        vices for peace. Working for peace and recon-
printed a second edition in January 2019. And      ciliation is at the heart of the Church‘s wit-
more and more people from other countries          ness. This witness cannot just be left to the
were approaching us and asking us to have it       Church as a whole; It requires long-term com-
translated. I am pleased that the Protestant       mitment at every level within the Church.
Church in Baden agreed to have the abridged
                                                   The Church is regarded by the public as an
version translated into English and French and
                                                   ­authority on ethical issues and is rightly ex-
thereby to facilitate the promotion of an inter-
                                                    pected to express its views on violence, in­
national debate about civil security policy as
                                                    justice, and persecution.
an alternative to the current military security
policy.                                            As we turned our attention to peace ethics,
                                                   we became aware that we have paid too little
It is unusual for a church publication to arouse
                                                   attention to the subject of peace and have
so much interest both within the church and
                                                   not done enough to strive for peace. We need
outside it. And it is equally unusual for the
                                                   to ask ourselves more often how much our
church to make such a clear political state­
                                                   life­style and consumption aggravate conflict
ment. How did this happen?
                                                   and sow the seeds of war. We do not take a
The starting point for this scenario was a         clear enough stance, when people are threat-
resolution which was put to the synod of the       ened or hurt by violence. We do too little to
Protestant Church in Baden in 2011 by Chris-       ensure that nonviolent means are used to re-
tians in one of the church districts. They         solve conflicts.
called for a reorientation of protestant peace
                                                   We now want to take responsibility for justice
ethics in accordance with the core biblical
                                                   and peace. And we urge Christians at all levels
messages of the Christian faith. They took
                                                   of our Regional Church to do as much as they
issue with the “preferential option for non­
                                                   can to implement the following suggestions
violence”, which is advocated especially in
                                                   and recommendations in their own circles.”
the EKD (Evangelical Church in Germany)
memorandum “Live from God’s Peace - Care           The resolution then listed 12 practical propos-
for Just Peace” and legitimises military vio-      als and recommendations. Unfortunately the
lence under certain circumstances.                 position paper has not yet been translated into
The Protestant Church in Baden subsequently        other languages in its entirety. So far only the
wrote a position paper which was sent to the       resolution has been translated into English.
25 church districts for discussion. There was a    This resolution is the basis for our work on
process of intensive discussion, at the end of     peace ethics. Decision no. 6 of the resolution
which the Synod resolved that it wanted “to        sets out the task of creating a scenario which
become a just peace church”.                       entails turning away from military security
4                                                                                             PREFACE

    (see see page 6). A working group was set up        Can the scenario be transposed onto other
    for this task and this publication is the result.   countries? We hope that this book will provide
                                                        ideas and suggestions which each country can
    This book shows that a different security pol-
                                                        use to develop their own scenarios (positive,
    icy is possible and outlines what shape such a
                                                        extrapolating current trends, and negative).
    policy might take. A lot of people in Germany
                                                        These scenarios will turn out to be different,
    have been protesting against arms exports
                                                        depending on the situation and the conditions
    and military intervention, etc. for years, be-
                                                        prevailing in each country. Some initial think-
    cause they recognise that neither peace nor
                                                        ing has already been done in the Netherlands.
    lasting security can be brought about by mili-
                                                        We hope that a lot of people in many countries
    tary means. But so far, in Germany, these
                                                        will set to work with as much enthusiasm as
    protests have not led to any change in secu-
                                                        the group in the Protestant Church in Baden
    rity policy. We believe that it is necessary not
                                                        did. And we hope they are convinced that this
    only to protest against injustice but also to
                                                        will inspire a positive response in other coun-
    work for a world with a different understanding
                                                        tries too. In Germany, more than 30 organisa-
    of security. This book shows what changes
                                                        tions have now declared their willingness to
    might be possible between now and 2040.
                                                        join a campaign for a new security policy.
    The focus is on German policies. Positive
    ­examples and approaches from Germany and           Please let us know how you get on. You will soon
     also from other countries have been used as a      be able to find downloadable texts in English
     basis for this scenario, the goal of which is to   and French on our website (www.ekiba.de/
     bring about a change in German policy and to       friedensszenario). If you want to contact us,
     influence international alliances as well. This    please send an e-mail to Ralf.Becker@ekiba.de
     book is intended to stimulate a rethinking of      or Stefan.Maass@ekiba.de
     security policy.
                                                        Karlsruhe, May 2019              Stefan Maass
1 INTRODUCTION                                                                                                    5

    1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 Europe faces a choice: Militarisation or a transition to
    civil security
•   “At their summit in Newport in Wales NA-                  The conventional wisdom still seems to be
    TO’s member states agreed to make fur-                    that violence can get rid of “evil” and thereby
    ther increases to their military budgets.                 banish any threat to security. This thinking is
    According to a formal declaration, the tar-               fundamental to the so-called “logic of secu-
    get of at least two per cent of GDP is to be              rity”. But it leads neither to security nor to
    reached within ten years.”1                               peace. Hanne-Margret Birckenbach’s peace-
                                                              logic approach represents an alternative way
•   “The EU Commission proposes that the
                                                              of doing things: It frames a problem in terms
    budget of the IcSP (the “Instrument con-
                                                              of the task of “building peace, which means
    tributing to Stability and Peace”, which is
                                                              facilitating relationships in which violence is
    essentially a civil programme) be in-
                                                              unlikely because cooperation is successful.”4
    creased by 100 million euro by 2020 in
    order to integrate military capacity-build-               What follows is intended to describe this idea
    ing into the programme.”2                                 and how the problems and threats can be
                                                              tackled at a practical level in a different, i.e.
•   On 13 November 2017, the President of the
                                                              non-military, way - in the course of a process
    European Parliament, Mr Tajani, called for
                                                              similar to the transition from nuclear power
    the EU’s total budget to be doubled from
                                                              to alternative sources of energy.
    140 to 280 billion euro, in part because of
    the need to finance defence cooperation3                  We are talking here about a transition from
    and the fight against terrorism.                          military to civil security policy as a conse-
                                                              quence of German sustainability policy be-
These three statements foreshadow a strong
                                                              tween now and 2040. And we are also talking
militarisation of EU policy. But why? Has the
                                                              about conversion of the German armed forces,
current military-based security policy brought
                                                              the Bundeswehr, from its current form as an
lasting security? Or has it instead created ever
                                                              institution which is designed to use various
increasing insecurity? Have the overseas mis-
                                                              forms of violence to deal with conflict. The
sions of the Bundeswehr (the federal armed
                                                              authors of this text wish to show by means of
forces) since 2000 been successful? What
                                                              a scenario how German security policy could
about the negative consequences of military
                                                              evolve from a military security policy into a
security policy (the number of victims, trau-
                                                              civil security policy.
matisation of civilian populations and sol-
diers, hindrance of the development of dem-
ocratic societies, physical destruction, and
environmental disasters)?

1   News on faz.net dated 6 September 2014, ac-
    cessed on 12 January 2018.
2   C News on faz.net dated 6 September 2014, ac-
    cessed on 12 January 2018.
3   Cf. ibid., p. 2ff. This is a reference to the so-called
    Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO).                 4   Cf. Birckenbach, 2016, p. 4.
6                                                                                              1 INTRODUCTION

    1.2 The starting point: the resolution of the Regional Synod5
    The resolution of the synod of the Protestant              scenario for phasing out military means of
    Church in Baden, that the church become a                  securing peace.”    5

    just peace church, includes the following de-
    cision regarding implementation (point 1.6):
    “Now that a national law has been passed to
    phase out nuclear power as a source of energy,             5   For further information regarding the regional
    it is time to draft - perhaps in agreement with                church’s resolution on peace ethics, see:
    other EU Member States - a medium-term                         www.kirche-des-friedens.de

    1.3 How the “Rethinking Security” scenario was created:
        The scenario technique
    The goal of the working group was to draft by              ments.”6 The working group decided to de-
    the autumn of 2018 a scenario setting out the              velop the scenario “Rethinking Security” with
    ways in which a democratic society based on                2040 as the end point.
    respect for human rights might assert itself
                                                               The positive scenario is presented in the
    nonviolently. The scenario was also intended
                                                               greatest detail, because this is in line with the
    to indicate how the transition might be made
                                                               task of producing a scenario phasing out mili-
    in the medium term from military peacekeep-
                                                               tary approaches to security. Set against the
    ing to nonviolent ways of securing peace.
                                                               positive scenario are two alternative scenar-
    In order to reach this goal, the working                   ios: One extrapolates current trends and the
    group chose to use what is called “the                     other is a negative scenario. Both of them are
    ­scenario technique”. This is “usually used to             presented as a series of milestones.
     ­explore solutions to future problems, for global
      modelling, or to predict long-term develop-
                                                               6   6 Cf. Albers und Broux (1999), p. 57.

    1.4 What is our vision in practical terms?
    “We must move past indecision to action. We must find      ecological resources only in proportion to our
    new ways to speak for peace ... and for justice through-   share of the world’s population, and which also
    out the developing world, a world that borders on our
                                                               leads to global trade and economic relations
    doors. If we do not act, we shall surely be dragged down
    the long, dark, and shameful corridors of time reserved    which are ecologically and socially just. Shared
    for those who possess power without compassion, might      security requires rigorous implementation of
    without morality, and strength without sight. Now let us   the global sustainable development goals
    begin.” Martin Luther King7                                (SDGs), which have been agreed at the UN
    Shared security means, for the sake of our own             level and are to be achieved by 2030. This sce-
    security, adopting appropriate lifestyles and              nario entails the diversion of all financial re-
    developing an economy, which uses the Earth’s              sources from military security to civilian pre-
                                                               vention and management of conflicts by 2040.
                                                               In this scenario, Germany works together with
                                                               other countries as civil (as opposed to military)
    7   Clayborne, Carson; King, Martin Luther, 2000, The      actors within the EU, the OSCE, the UN, and
        Autobiography of Martin Luther King, Jr., New
                                                               NATO. In this way Germany promotes aware-
        York, Abacus. p. 342
1 INTRODUCTION                                                                                                         7

ness throughout Europe and the world of the            particular situation, UN police and peacekeeping
importance of training and education in nonvi-         forces are sent in. The purpose of all UN missions
olent conflict resolution. This leads at the in-       is to defend human rights and save lives. And all
ternational level to the demilitarisation of con-      UN staff are trained in unarmed civilian peace-
flict resolution by UN police forces, the              keeping and other instruments and methods of
outlawing and abolition of war and armed               civilian conflict management. Because the UN
forces, and the promotion of a culture of non-         and the continental organisations have the nec-
violence in responding to conflict.                    essary structures and financial resources to be
                                                       able to guarantee that the population of every
The basic global vision underlying this scenario
                                                       nation state is protected, there is no longer any
is as follows:
                                                       need for any nation to keep a standing army. War
A (reformed) UN is the central institution which       is outlawed not just in theory but in practice.
regulates the peaceful coexistence of peoples
                                                       Because of the great importance of global
and nation states. It is an umbrella organisation
                                                       trade, the institutions and regulatory instru-
for continental organisations (OSCE, OAS, AU,
                                                       ments of the WTO are subordinated to a new
ASEAN, etc.), each of which has its own security
                                                       organisation governing the global economy ac-
council and police force. Everywhere in the world
                                                       cording to universal social and ecological stand-
conflicts are dealt with through the use of nonvi-
                                                       ards. The vision described here was created by
olent mechanisms (prevention, early warning,
                                                       further developing the SDGs, the 17 global goals
rapid response), which can be found in every cul-
                                                       for sustainable development which are to be
ture on Earth. These mechanisms promote mu-
                                                       achieved by 2030. Goal 16 “Peace and Justice”
tual respect, compromise, and fair outcomes,
                                                       states the framework very clearly:
which together remove the causes of the escala-
tion of violence in conflict situations. If a conti-   “Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable
nental security council decides that these mech-       development, provide access to justice for all and build
                                                       effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all lev-
anisms are not functioning effectively in a
                                                       els.”

1.5 Who should bring about the transformation?
Because politics is always an interplay of so-         The Protestant Church in Baden’s initiative
cial forces, in order for this scenario to be-         could stimulate the development of a broad
come reality there will have to be a broad so-         alliance of churches and civil society organi-
cial movement, like there was behind the               sations (including other faith organisations)
phasing out of nuclear power and the energy            throughout Germany from 2018 onwards.
transition. The churches could play a leading
                                                       Then church networks in particular through-
role, especially in implementing the sustaina-
                                                       out Europe could campaign for widespread
ble development goals (SDGs), just as they did
                                                       acceptance of a sustainable civil security pol-
in the successful Jubilee Debt Campaign be-
                                                       icy by 2040.
tween 1996 and 2000. The SDGs can be taken
up by the ecumenical movement and pro-
moted throughout civil society. Broad general
discussion of the sustainability goals could
contribute a great deal towards their imple-
mentation.
8                                                                                    1 INTRODUCTION

    1.6 Focus on the role of Germany
    The positive scenario focuses on Germany,          power and opportunities therefore of the
    because the authors want to highlight the po-      people in Germany, together with everyone
    litical power and the opportunities which          else, regardless of origin or nationality, who
    their country has in relation to the demilitari-   wants to set out on the same path.
    sation of European security policy, and the

    1.7 Factual basis and note regarding copyright
    In the positive scenario the case studies and      The positive scenario is a compilation and de-
    data relating to the years up to and including     velopment of a large number of contributions
    2017 are based on fact. Most of the data is        to the debate made by other authors. These
    taken from the Fourth Report of the Federal        are listed in the bibliography.
    Government on the Implementation of the Ac-
    tion Plan “Civilian Crisis Prevention, Conflict
    Resolution, and Post-Conflict Peace-Building”
    or from the guidelines “Preventing Crises, Re-     8   Cf. Die Bundesregierung, 2017 and
    solving Conflict, Building Peace”. 8                   Die Bundesregierung, 2014.

    1.8 Full-length version and distribution of the scenario
    This is a complex scenario, which should be        Ralf Becker
    recounted in detail. The authors have there-       project coordinator
    fore created a full-length version which draws     „Sicherheit neu denken“
    on a large number of concrete examples, both
                                                       Email: ralf.becker@ekiba.de
    historical and current, of nonviolent action at
    the local, national, and international levels.     Stefan Maass

    The authors hope that the scenario “Rethink-       programme manager
    ing Security: From military to civil security”     „Kirche des gerechten Friedens werden“
    will set the discourse about security and          in der Ev. Landeskirche in Baden
    peace off in a new direction. Your support is      Email: stefan.maass@ekiba.de
    needed for this scenario to be made available      Evangelische Landeskirche in Baden
    to a broad public throughout the churches          Postfach 2269, 7610 Karlsruhe
    and civil society and for it to become part of
    a public debate within the churches and civil      For further information regarding the regional
    society. We are willing to present the sce-        church’s peace ethics programme, see our
    nario at conferences and events.                   website at: www.kirche-des-friedens.de

    The full-length version of the scenario, fur-      Current news about the scenario can also be
    ther copies of this short version, and an infor-   found at www.ekiba.de/friedensszenario
    mation sheet about the scenario are available
    from:
2 THE POSITIVE SCENARIO: “SUSTAINABLE CIVIL SECURITY”                                                  9

    2 THE POSITIVE SCENARIO
      “SUSTAINABLE CIVIL SECURITY”
2.1 FROM 2018 TO 2040 - MILESTONES ALONG THE WAY
2017: Minister of Defence von der Leyen            scientious Objection and Peace), the BSV
seeks support for civil security policy            (Federation for Social Defence), the Fellowship
Minister of Defence von der Leyen seeks support    of Reconciliation, the Werkstatt für gewalt-
for a strengthening of the civilian pillars of     freie Aktion (Nonviolent Action Workshop).
European security and defence policy.9 Diplo-      In the Federal Foreign Office, the number of
macy and also support for economic develop-        staff in Section S - Humanitarian Assistance,
ment in the countries in the EU’s neighbour-       Crisis Prevention, Stabilisation, and Post-Con-
hood should be strengthened in future.             flict Rehabilitation, created in 2015, is in-
2018: The Protestant Church in Baden publi­        creased from 500 to 1,000.
cises the scenario as a contribution to public     A publicity campaign run by churches and civil
debate                                             society organisations concerned with human
The synod of the Protestant Church in Baden        rights leads to restrictions on the number of
entrusts the church leadership with the task       films and film trailers with violent content on
of publicising - in conjunction with other civil   public service television.
society and church organisations - the sce-        2019: EKD commissions study to devise a
nario “Rethinking Security: From military to       sustainable civil security policy for Ger­
civil security” as a contribution to public de-    many
bate in Germany and Europe in 2018 and 2019.
                                                   The scenario will also be fed into the public
The scenario is then presented at more than
                                                   debate at the European level through the Eu-
500 events in cooperation with other regional
                                                   ropean network Church and Peace, the Inter-
Protestant churches and many other organisa-
                                                   national Fellowship of Reconciliation, the
tions, including the Konsortium Ziviler
                                                   Community of Protestant Churches in Europe
Friedensdienst (Civil Peace Service Group),
AGDF (Action Committee Service for Peace),         (CPCE), the WCC in Geneva, and the Commis-
the Verein für Friedensarbeit im Raum der          sion of the Bishops’ Conferences in the Euro-
EKD (the Association for Peace Work within         pean Union (COMECE).
the Evangelical Church in Germany), Brot für       The head of the German Armed Forces Asso-
die Welt (Bread for the World), Misereor, Mis-     ciation, Mr Wuestner complains publicly that
sio, the Plattform Zivile Konfliktbearbeitung      the Bundestag is not setting clear aims for the
(German Platform for Peaceful Conflict Man-        armed forces’ overseas missions and is thereby
agement), the Netzwerk Friedenskooperative         regularly putting soldiers in an intolerable po-
(Network of the German Peace Movement),            sition.
Kooperation für den Frieden (Alliance for
                                                   The Evangelical Church in Germany (EKD) crit-
Peace), the Berghof Foundation, Pax Christi,
                                                   icises the fact that the armed forces’ over-
the EAK (Protestant Working Group for Con-
                                                   seas missions increasingly rarely fulfil the cri-
                                                   teria, laid down in 2007, for ethically
9   Verbal statement by Defence Minister von der
                                                   acceptable use of military force as a last re-
    Leyen during the TV programme “Anne Will”      sort. The EKD, in cooperation with a nascent
    shown on ARD on 22 January 2017.               campaign for a civil security policy, calls on
10                                  2 THE POSITIVE SCENARIO: “SUSTAINABLE CIVIL SECURITY”

     the federal government to fund a comprehen-       gen Area. Germany and the Benelux countries
     sive inquiry into the potential effectiveness     react to this by building up their police forces
     and limitations of a sustainable civil security   and expanding social integration programmes.
     policy.
                                                       2021: The state no longer guarantees arms
     The widespread problem of traumatisation of       exports
     soldiers through participation in overseas mis-
                                                       The Bundestag passes a definitive ban on nu-
     sions comes increasingly to the attention of
                                                       clear weapons on German soil. Germany lob-
     the public.
                                                       bies with growing success at both European
     The sustainable civil security scenario be-       and international levels for a universal and
     comes known to a broad spectrum of the pub-       complete nuclear weapons ban.
     lic as a result of newspaper advertisements, a
                                                       “Aktion Aufschrei - Stoppt den Waffenhan-
     large poster campaign, and days of action
                                                       del!” (“Operation Outcry: Stop the Arms
     funded by various churches and civil society
                                                       Trade”) succeeds in getting a resolution
     organisations throughout Germany. Various
                                                       passed by the Bundestag to end state guaran-
     news programmes report on the scenario and
                                                       tees for arms exports. Their demand for an
     representatives of the scenario are invited to
                                                       end to all arms exports has been taken up by
     take part in television talk shows.
                                                       the national campaign for a civil security pol-
     In Austria, Sweden, and the Netherlands there     icy. As a result of a successful action cam-
     is a positive response to the ideas of the sce-   paign and extremely creative public relations
     nario not only from civil society and the         work the campaign gains more than 1,000
     churches, but also from the national govern-      member organisations. In the run-up to the
     ments.                                            general election in 2021 the campaign con-
                                                       ducts a large number of public debates
     2020: A civil society campaign for a civil
                                                       throughout Germany and succeeds in making
     security policy is founded
                                                       the scenario “Rethinking Security” known to
     A national campaign for a civil security policy   the parliamentary candidates of all the politi-
     is founded as an independent association by       cal parties.
     30 member organisations whose goal is the
     passing of a corresponding resolution by the      2022: Government commissions inquiry
     Bundestag in 2025. The member organisations       into sustainable civil security
     commit initially to participating in the cam-     The civil society and church organisations in-
     paign until 2025.                                 volved in the campaign intensify their dia-
                                                       logue with members of the Bundestag and
     Fifteen of the campaign’s 30 member organi-
                                                       government ministers by organising numerous
     sations employ staff to support the campaign.
                                                       events throughout Germany at church study
     The campaign council, which is made up of
                                                       centres and with the think-tank foundations
     representatives of the Protestant Church in
                                                       associated with each of the political parties.
     Baden and other church and civil society or-
     ganisations, draws up the campaign’s policy       The dialogue is also promoted through a na-
     and programme of action. The campaign fo-         tionwide campaign in which people send post-
     cuses initially on calling on the federal gov-    cards to members of the Bundestag. And im-
     ernment to work at both the European level        aginative events are held in every constituency.
     and the international level for a universal and
                                                       The EKD works in cooperation with the cam-
     complete nuclear weapons ban.
                                                       paign and succeeds in persuading the federal
     Several major terrorist attacks shake Ger-        government to commission a comprehensive
     many, France, and the Benelux countries.          inquiry into the potential effectiveness and
     There are violent demonstrations by citizens      limitations of a sustainable civil security policy.
     who call for their country to leave the Schen-
2 THE POSITIVE SCENARIO: “SUSTAINABLE CIVIL SECURITY”                                                  11

Politicians belonging to conservative parties     2024: Government commission recom­
and representatives of the armaments indus-       mends implementation of the campaign’s
try set up the “Organisation for Military Secu-   scenario
rity”, which places full-page advertisements
                                                  The government-appointed commission of
in all the major daily newspapers and adver-
                                                  ­inquiry into the potential effectiveness and
tises on television for the continued mainte-
                                                   limitations of a sustainable civil security pol-
nance of a military security policy.
                                                   icy, reports in its findings that civilian peace-
2023: Papal encyclical “Fructus justiciae          keeping is economically and politically effi-
pax”                                               cient in terms of the input of resources and
                                                   the achievement of the desired goals. The
The Pope, in an encyclical entitled “Fructus
                                                   commission recommends that a series of steps
justiciae pax” (The fruit of justice will be
                                                   be taken to implement the scenario advo-
peace, Isaiah 32:17), calls on every country in
                                                   cated by the campaign.
the world, and industrialised countries in par-
ticular, to transfer funding from military to     The campaign for civil security policy now has
non-military security. As a consequence, more     5,000 member organisations which organise a
and more congregations and churches in Ger-       series of actions at military bases throughout
many and throughout Europe join in the cam-       the country over several months. This wins
paign, which has more than 3,000 member or-       sympathetic media coverage at the national
ganisations by the end of the year.               level. In opinion polls as many as 60 % say that
                                                  they are in favour of a sustainable civil secu-
In order to comply with a Directive issued by
                                                  rity policy.
the Federal Constitutional Court, the federal
government passes a regulation to protect         2025: The Bundestag resolves that Ger­
freedom of conscience as enshrined in Article     many should make the transition to a civil
4 (1) of the German Constitution. The regula-     security policy
tion makes it illegal to force any tax-payer to
                                                  The sustainable civil security scenario for
pay towards armaments or armed forces
                                                  Germany gains widespread support at the
against their conscience. More and more peo-
                                                  ­ecumenical Kirchentag (church gathering) in
ple assert their right to conscientious objec-
                                                   Bonn, and the topic dominates the national
tion to paying taxes for military purposes, to
                                                   news. The leaders of almost all political par-
the extent that some political parties begin to
                                                   ties are open to the idea, and they promise
include in their manifestos proposals for wind-
                                                   that it will be implemented step-by-step after
ing down the armed forces.
                                                   the forthcoming general election. During a
Both the Protestant and the Roman Catholic         historic session, the newly-elected German
churches in Germany work within their Euro-        Bundestag resolves, with a large majority in
pean networks to push for acceptance in the        favour, that Germany shall make the transition
other EU Member States of the intended de-         from a military security policy to a sustainable
militarisation of European security policy in      civil security policy based on five pillars:
conjunction with Germany’s policy to pro-
                                                  1. Just foreign relations (development of for-
mote sustainability.
                                                     eign relations which are ecologically, so-
In opinion polls, as many as 40% say that they       cially, and economically just);
are in favour of Germany making the transi-
                                                  2. Sustainable development in the EU’s
tion to civil security.
                                                     Neighbourhood countries. (promotion of
                                                     economic development and security in
                                                     the EU’s eastern and southern neighbour-
                                                     hood);
12                                     2 THE POSITIVE SCENARIO: “SUSTAINABLE CIVIL SECURITY”

     3. Participation in the international security       curity Forum. The Forum launches various cam-
        architecture (German membership of the            paigns to promote the concept of common civil
        EU, the OSCE, NATO, and the UN);                  security, as envisaged by the scenario, amongst
                                                          the churches and civil society in the Member
     4. Resilient democracy; and
                                                          States of the EU and the EAEU.
     5. Conversion of the federal armed forces
                                                          The Bundestag initiates a re-launch of the or-
        and the armaments industry.
                                                          ganisation “desertec” by the EU together with
     The Bundestag’s resolution also stipulates           all the countries (government and civil society)
     that Germany should push for the creation by         bordering the Mediterranean. The aim of the
     2030, of a common economic area encom-               organisation is to realise the eco-social vision of
     passing the EU and Russia/the EAEU (Eurasian         the UN’s SDGs.
     Economic Union). This should be the basis for
                                                          Under the umbrella of the OSCE (Organisation
     a security partnership between the EU and
                                                          for Security and Cooperation in Europe) and at
     Russia to be agreed in 2030. The Bundestag’s
                                                          the behest of Germany, the EU and the Eurasian
     resolution also includes support for education
                                                          Economic Union (EAEU), which encompasses
     and training in the field of civilian conflict
                                                          Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia, and Kyr-
     management and resilient democracy. This is
                                                          gyzstan, begin negotiations with the aim of cre-
     to be provided by the member organisations
                                                          ating a common economic area from Lisbon to
     of a newly created civil society organisation:
                                                          Vladivostok. This common economic area is in-
     the Nonviolence Association.
                                                          tended to form the basis of a security partner-
     The Bundestag Subcommittee for Civilian Cri-         ship between the EU and Russia, which is to be
     sis Prevention, Conflict Resolution and              created at the same time.
     Joined-up Action is reconstituted as the “Re-
     silient Democracy” committee.                        2027: ITHW receives first delivery of
                                                          equipment from the Bundeswehr
     2026: Negotiations take place between the
                                                          In the course of conversion of the Bundeswehr
     EU and Russia on the creation of an eco­
                                                          (German armed forces), the International
     nomic area
                                                          Agency for Technical Relief (ITHW) receives
     Having reached the goal of a resolution by the       the first delivery of equipment which can be
     Bundestag to implement the scenario, the cam-        used for civilian purposes, thereby increasing
     paign for a civil security policy, founded in 2020   its capacity for future medical and technical
     for a limited period only, winds itself up. A suc-   missions worldwide.
     cessor organisation is set up: The national civil
                                                          Arms factories develop and manufacture the
     society organisation, the Nonviolence Associa-
                                                          first items of equipment for use by the ITHW
     tion, starts off with 2,500 member organisa-
                                                          and thus begin converting their production to
     tions and 7,500 individual members. This asso-
                                                          the manufacture of civilian products.
     ciation works together with the churches and
     government bodies to further the following           NATO criticises the 2025 resolution of the
     aims: to develop education and training through-     Bundestag to change over to an exclusively
     out the country; to establish another temporary      civil security policy. The German cabinet re-
     campaign to build the Fourth Pillar, “Resilient      sists the pressure from other NATO Member
     Democracy”; and to provide support, including        States and points out that they have the clear
     constructive criticism, for the implementation       backing of public opinion for the intended
     of the Bundestag resolution within Germany.          policy transformation. The USA responds by
                                                          temporarily suspending cooperation of their
     At the same time, civil society and church or-
                                                          intelligence agencies with the German au-
     ganisations from within the EU and the EAEU
                                                          thorities.
     come together under the leadership of the
     World Council of Churches to form the Civil Se-
2 THE POSITIVE SCENARIO: “SUSTAINABLE CIVIL SECURITY”                                              13

2028: Negotiations for a security partner­        2032: OSCE Centre for Civilian Crisis Pre­
ship with Russia begin                            vention and Intervention opens in Stock­
On the basis of promising negotiations for the    holm and UN Centre for Social Resistance
creation of a common economic area encom-         opens in Bonn.
passing the EU and Russia/the EAEU, negotia-      The Economic and Security Partnership be-
tions begin on the formation of a security        tween the EU and Russia/the EAEU facilitates
partnership with Russia under the auspices of     a continuous process of disarmament through-
the OSCE.                                         out Europe. This is accompanied by the crea-
The Munich Security Conference and the Fed-       tion of an OSCE police force to protect the
eral Academy for Security Policy orient their     economic and security interests of the states
programmes in line with the Bundestag’s 2025      which are part of the partnership. 70% of
resolution, i.e. in accordance with a purely      Germans have confidence in the Economic
civil security policy. The Munich Security Con-   and Security Partnership with Russia/the
ference Change Project and the national cam-      EAEU.
paign for a civil security policy have both       As a result of German involvement, the OSCE
done a lot to bring about this transformation.    expands its civilian crisis prevention and in-
2029: Nonviolent conflict management and          tervention activities and opens a new centre
resilient democracy are a compulsory part         in Stockholm.
of the curriculum in all schools                  At the same time the UN Secretary General
In accordance with the 2025 Bundestag reso-       inaugurates the UN Centre for Social Resist-
lution, which was also agreed with the states     ance in Bonn as a training centre for building
of the federal republic (Bundesländer), the       resilient democracy.
German states make nonviolent conflict man-       2035: Bundestag resolution on complete
agement and resilient democracy part of the       conversion of the Bundeswehr by 2040
compulsory curriculum of all schools.
Throughout the federal republic, in consulta-     As a result of intensive cooperation by the
tion with the state ministries of education,      German government with the Civil Security
civil society organisations belonging to the      Forum and the Nonviolence Association, the
Nonviolence Association are given responsibil-    ground is laid for a Bundestag resolution in
ity for teaching these subjects. This serves to   2035 which provides for the complete con-
demonstrate how important a functioning           version of the German Bundeswehr into a
civil society is to resilient democracy.          purely civilian section of the (International)
                                                  Agency for Technical Relief. Henceforth the
2030: Economic and security treaty with           OSCE plays the key role in ensuring peace
Russia/EAEU                                       and security in Europe.
The Economic and Security Partnership be-
                                                  2037: NATO accepts the purely civilian na­
tween the EU and Russia/the EAEU is founded
                                                  ture of Germany’s contribution to peace­
under the auspices of the OSCE. With the cre-
                                                  keeping
ation of a common economic area from Lisbon
to Vladivostok, Europe overcomes the eco-         At a NATO summit, Germany’s allies agree to
nomic division which reached its height dur-      allow Germany to make a purely civilian con-
ing the Ukraine crisis in 2014. In the partner-   tribution to peacekeeping within the NATO al-
ship agreement the economic and security          liance in future.
interests of Russia and all the other Member      The last German armaments factories are
States of the EU and the EAEU are recognised      converted to the production of (non-military)
in their entirety and are balanced out.           technical equipment for the International
The Bundeswehr stops holding information          Agency for Technical Relief.
events in schools.
14                                   2 THE POSITIVE SCENARIO: “SUSTAINABLE CIVIL SECURITY”

     2040: Complete conversion of the Bundes­           Prevention. The Bundeswehr hands over its
     wehr                                               last facilities and equipment to the Interna-
                                                        tional Agency for Technical Relief. Germany
     What has until now been the Ministry of De-
                                                        has completed the conversion of its security
     fence becomes the Ministry for Civilian Crisis
                                                        policy to sustainable civil security.

     2.2 The PILLARS of German sustainable civil security
         policy from the year 2025
     From the year 2025, in accordance with the         •   rigorously implement the climate goals to
     trail-blazing resolutions of the German Bun-           which they committed themselves in the
     destag in 2025 and 2035, Germany’s sustaina-           2015 Paris climate agreement,
     ble civil security policy rests on the following
     pillars:
                                                        •   in cooperation with their European part-
                                                            ners, invest in measures to end hunger,
     1. Development of foreign relations which              poverty, and disease throughout the
        are ecologically, socially, and economi-            world.
        cally just;
                                                        Germany contributes 4 billion euro annually
     2. Promotion of economic development and           to the UN World Food Programme.
        security in the EU’s eastern and southern
                                                        The results of this policy are as follows:
        neighbourhood countries;
     3. Participation in the international security
                                                        •   The EU ends subsidies for agricultural ex-
                                                            ports;
        architecture: German membership of the
        EU, the OSCE, NATO, and the UN;                 •   The “global South” is no longer structur-
                                                            ally disadvantaged because of Western
     4. Resilient democracy;
                                                            domination of the global trade and finan-
     5. Conversion of the Bundeswehr and the ar-            cial system;.
        maments industry.
                                                        •   In the raw materials sector, there are
                                                            clear and transparent global regulations
     2.2.I Just foreign relations                           and effective institutions which guarantee
     2040 - Overview                                        that there is no violent conflict and that
                                                            environmental and social standards are
     Germany, Austria, Sweden, and the Nether-              upheld;
     lands
                                                        •   Germany contributes 6 billion euro annu-
     •   conduct foreign relations which are eco-           ally to the UN Sustainable Development
         logically, socially, and economically just,        Goals Fund. The Federal Ministry for Eco-
         and maintain a fair balance of trade,              nomic Cooperation and Development in-
     •   steadily increase the proportion of traded         vests an additional 6 million euro annually
         goods which are certified as fair trade,           in global climate protection.
     •   practise a lifestyle which places demands
         on ecological resources which are com-
         mensurate with their share of the world’s
         population,
2 THE POSITIVE SCENARIO: “SUSTAINABLE CIVIL SECURITY”                                                  15

 The Global extractive Resources Initiative
                                                •   From 2030 the Economic and Security
                                                    Partnership between the EU and the Rus-
 The Global extractive Resources Initiative         sian-led EAEU regulates the economic in-
 (GeRI), which was launched at the begin-           terests of all the partner states by means
 ning of 2012, promotes the creation of clear       of a treaty and through the creation of a
 and transparent legal regulations and the          common economic area.
 establishment of effective institutions in
 the mining sector.                             •   Germany is the biggest supporter of the
                                                    African Peace and Security Architecture
 During 2007/2008, following the recom-             (APSA) and contributes more than 60% of
 mendations of the G8 summit in Heiligen-           the EU’s support for the African Union’s
 damm in 2007, the Federal Institute for Ge-        (AU’s) budget for this.
 osciences and Natural Resources, working
 together with partner institutions on be-      •   Germany contributes 12 billion euro annu-
                                                    ally to the UN Development Plan for the
 half of the federal government, developed
                                                    EU and the member states of the African
 a raw materials certification system (Certi-
                                                    Union and the Arab League. The focus is
 fied Trading Chains). This system was the
                                                    on fair trade, good governance, sustaina-
 first to specifically address the challenges
                                                    ble private and public investment, bot-
 of artisanal and small-scale mining, while
                                                    tom-up economic development, entrepre-
 also monitoring environmental and social
                                                    neurial spirit, and jobs and employment.
 standards, including the degree to which
 minerals are “conflict-free”.                  •   The African and Middle Eastern countries
                                                    supply 30% of the EU’s consumption of en-
 After a successful pilot scheme covering
                                                    ergy from renewable sources. For this pur-
 five mines in Rwanda, German support for
                                                    pose Germany invests a further 5 million
 certification measures was extended ini-
                                                    euro in the energy infrastructure of coun-
 tially to the Great Lakes region and subse-
                                                    tries bordering the Mediterranean.
 quently to the whole of the African conti-
 nent and then to the whole world.              The UN Development Plan for Africa and
 The importance of the issue of raw materi-     the Middle East10
 als and crisis prevention and German ac-       The UN Development Plan stands on three pil-
 tion to tackle it were highlighted interna-       lars:
 tionally by the publication in 2014 of the     1. Economy, trade, and employment
 EU’s draft regulation on responsible trade
 in tin, tantalum, tungsten, and gold.          2. Peace and security, and

 The global orientation of the EU regulation,   3. Democracy and the rule of law.
 which was finally adopted in 2020, led to
                                                Cooperation is governed by the following
 growth in the importance of due diligence
                                                guidelines:
 measures and certification in the African
 Great Lakes Region and beyond.                 •   an effective ban on harmful exports to Af-
                                                    rica; a transition from free trade to fair
                                                    trade; support for the development of in-
2.2.II Sustainable development in the EU’s          frastructure; targeted development of
       Neighbourhood countries                      value-adding processes at source;
2040 – Overview
•   The countries of Africa, the Middle East,
    and Eastern Europe form a stable “peace
    belt” around the EU.
                                                10 This is an extrapolation of ideas drawn from BMZ,
                                                   2017.
16                                    2 THE POSITIVE SCENARIO: “SUSTAINABLE CIVIL SECURITY”

     •   the upholding of international environ-         than 60% of the total EU support for this sec-
         mental and social standards;                    tion of the AU budget.
     •   the closure of international tax havens;
                                                          Support for regional civilian peacekeep­
         pressure on international financial markets
                                                          ing training centres in Africa
         and banks to end illegal transfers of funds
         out of Africa;                                   One of the main priorities of these measures
                                                          is to support regional civilian peacekeeping
     •   restrictions on arms exports to Africa, es-
                                                          training centres in Africa. The support
         pecially on the export of small and light
                                                          ­focusses on the training of African police
         weapons;
                                                           officers for UN and AU peace missions.
     •   pressure on governments which finance
                                                          The federal government has therefore been
         religious extremism in Africa and thereby
                                                          funding training courses at the Kofi Annan
         destabilise entire regions, to stop doing so.
                                                          International Peacekeeping Training Centre
     The Development Plan is driven by a new eco-         (KAIPTC) in Accra, Ghana, since 2008. More
     nomic policy which focusses on economic di-          than 100,000 West African police officers
     versification, the development of value              have been trained since 2012.
     chains, targeted promotion of agriculture and
                                                          Alongside its support for African regional
     small and medium-sized enterprises, and
                                                          civilian peacekeeping training centres, Ger-
     greater recognition of the value of crafts and
                                                          many is also funding UNITAR (United Nations
     trades and thereby the creation of a new mid-
                                                          Institute for Training and Research). UNITAR
     dle class. Europe supports the development
                                                          supports the training of personnel for UN
     of Africa and the Middle East by opening up
                                                          missions at African civilian peacekeeping
     access to its internal market and by removing
                                                          training centres and is building up an Afri-
     existing trade barriers.
                                                          can regional network of 25 civilian peace-
     Strengthening the peace and security ar­             keeping training centres.
     chitecture in Africa and the Middle East
     In 2013/2014 the BMZ (Federal Ministry for          Integration of the economic areas of
     Economic Cooperation and Development)               Russia/ the EAEU and the EU
     published a policy document entitled “Devel-        In 2026, prompted by Germany, Austria, Swe-
     opment for Peace and Security: Development          den, and the Netherlands, the EU and the
     Policy in the Context of Conflict, Fragility and    Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU, encompass-
     Violence”. This document emphasises the im-         ing Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia, and
     portance of institutional and legally estab-        Kyrgyzstan), which was founded in 2014,
     lished mechanisms for political participation       begin negotiations with the aim of creating a
     and for negotiated management of conflicting        common economic area from Lisbon to Vlad-
     interests as preconditions for peaceful and in-     ivostok. From 2030, as a result of this eco-
     clusive development in the Neighbourhood of         nomic partnership, Europe overcomes the
     the EU.                                             economic division which reached its height
     Key partners in the prevention and de-escala-       during the 2014 Ukraine crisis, because the
     tion of conflict in Africa are the African Union    economic interests of Russia and all the other
     (AU) and other regional organisations which         Member States of the EU and the EAEU are
     together form the African Peace and Security        recognised in their entirety and are balanced
     Architecture (APSA). Germany is the biggest         out.
     supporter of the APSA, especially where the
     funding of current peace missions is con-
     cerned. Indeed Germany contributes more
2 THE POSITIVE SCENARIO: “SUSTAINABLE CIVIL SECURITY”                                                 17

2.2.III Participation in the international         •   The UN Security Council is now composed
        security architecture (EU, OSCE,               of representatives of the continental se-
        NATO, UN)                                      curity councils.
2040 - Overview                                    Paradigm shift from “national security” to
                                                   “common security”12
•   The OSCE is the key organisation for early
    warning, crisis prevention, conflict resolu-   Common security is a concept based on the
    tion, and post-conflict rehabilitation         understanding that a peaceful European order
    throughout Europe. As a subsidiary organ-      depends on a form of European security which
    isation of the UN, the OSCE tackles all        respects the security interests of all the par-
    conflicts within Europe using only civilian    ties involved. According to this concept, one’s
    methods of policing, etc.                      own security always depends on the security
                                                   of one’s neighbour or opponent. It does not
•   From the standpoint of shared or common
                                                   work for each of us to seek our own security
    security, security in Europe has to take
                                                   by defending ourselves against our neigh-
    into account the security interests of all
                                                   bours. We must all seek our security together.
    the players. One’s own security is always
                                                   Common security rests on the recognition of
    dependent on the security of one’s neigh-
                                                   economic and political interdependence and
    bour or opponent.
                                                   on shared and indivisible responsibility for
•   Germany invests 6 billion euro annually in     peace. Socio-political differences need to be
    the creation of a pan-European UN police       recognised and accepted. The overriding aim
    force under the auspices of the OSCE. This     is coexistence: There may not be a consensus
    police force is always on stand-by and         in terms of shared values, but everyone’s in-
    ready to intervene, so it can go into action   terests can be balanced out.
    just as rapidly and effectively as army
                                                   The federal government’s 2016 White Paper
    units were expected to in the past.
                                                   on security policy adopted the national secu-
•   NATO accepts the purely civilian contribu-     rity paradigm and portrayed our own inter-
    tions made by two of its members, Ger-         ests as naturally justified. The White Paper
    many and the Netherlands.                      states that these interests can be pursued
•   The training of the population in resilient    using any suitable means, including military,
    democracy becomes established as a pil-        anywhere in the world. But political oppo-
    lar of common security policy in the EU,       nents are not granted the same right to pur-
    the OSCE, and NATO.11                          sue their own interests using these same
                                                   means. The White Paper does not mention
•   Germany contributes more than 5,000 po-        the risk to world peace and international se-
    lice and 50,000 civilian experts to interna-   curity which arises when every nation claims
    tional UN peacekeeping missions and is         this right for themselves.
    the largest contributor to the UN Peace-
    building Fund.                                 Before and after the German Bundestag reso-
                                                   lutions on sustainable civil security policy are
•   Germany pushes for UN peacekeeping mis-        passed in 2025 and 2035, Germany builds up
    sions to be organised as police operations     its contributions to non-military peacebuild-
    and hosts the annual UN police confer-         ing under the auspices of the UN, the EU, and
    ence.                                          the OSCE in accordance with its action plan
                                                   “Civilian Crisis Prevention, Conflict Resolu-
                                                   tion, and Post-Conflict Peace-Building”. This

11 Drawn from FEST (Ed.), 2017.                    12 Cf. FEST (Ed.), 2017, p. 8.
18                                       2 THE POSITIVE SCENARIO: “SUSTAINABLE CIVIL SECURITY”

     action plan was published in 2004 and most              rope. It is intended that - as a subsidiary or-
     recently revised in 2017, when it was re-pub-           ganisation of the UN, as described in Chapter
     lished as guidelines for “Preventing Crises,            VIII of the UN Charter - the OSCE should in fu-
     Resolving Conflicts, Building Peace”.                   ture tackle all conflicts within Europe by using
                                                             policing and other civilian measures only.
     EU - Common Security and Defence Policy
                                                             With the creation of an international OSCE
     (CSDP)
                                                             police force, all the remaining national armies
     According to Article 42 (1) of the EU treaty,           are to be drastically reduced in strength. This
     the Common Security and Defence Policy is               development is made possible by the exist-
     an integral part of the Common Foreign and              ence of the Economic and Security Partner-
     Security Policy. “It shall provide the Union            ship between the EU and the Russian-led
     with an operational capacity drawing on civil-          EAEU. From 2030 onwards, this Partnership
     ian and military assets. The Union may use              regulates the economic interests of all the
     them on missions outside the Union for                  partner states by means of a treaty and through
     peace-keeping, conflict prevention and                  the creation of a common economic area.
     strengthening international security in ac-
     cordance with the principles of the United              NATO - Germany as a purely civil actor
     Nations Charter.”                                       There has been a strong peace movement in
                                                             Germany ever since the Second World War.
     From 2030 onwards, Germany, Austria, Swe-
                                                             The peaceful revolution which brought down
     den, and the Netherlands participate only in
                                                             the Berlin Wall in 1989 already gave rise to
     the civilian missions within the framework of
                                                             hopes that it might become possible in future
     the CSDP. From the beginning of the 2020s,
                                                             to resolve conflicts using nonviolent means.
     civilian missions already play an increasing
     role compared with the military components              Since 1989, the German government has re-
     of the CSDP. But it is not until the Bundestag’s        peatedly stressed that civilian means of con-
     2025 resolution and the subsequent increase             flict management take precedence, while the
     in funding for the civilian components of the           use of military force has always been regarded
     CSDP that they develop into an important pil-           as a last resort. And yet in the years up until
     lar of the EU’s security and defence policy.13          2016 Germany spent ten times as much (36
                                                             billion euro annually) on military as opposed
     OSCE - the key to peace and security in
                                                             to civilian means of preventing and resolving
     Europe
                                                             conflict.14
     From the point of view of Germany, the OSCE
                                                             By 2024 Germany even increases its annual
     (Organisation for Security and Cooperation in
                                                             military defence spending to more than 60
     Europe) is the key organisation for early warn-
                                                             billion euro.
     ing, crisis prevention, conflict resolution, and
     post-conflict peacebuilding throughout Eu-              By the time the Bundestag passes its resolu-
     rope.                                                   tion in 2025, it is generally recognised that
                                                             spending on military peacekeeping, as op-
     Following the Bundestag’s resolution in 2025,           posed to purely civilian peacemaking, cannot
     it is Germany’s stated aim to work together             no longer be justified economically or so-
     with all the states of Europe to build up the           cially.
     OSCE into the sole security institution in Eu-
                                                             Bearing in mind, amongst other things, our vi-
                                                             olent history up until 1945, and in an attempt
     13 These structures are part of the federal govern-
                                                             to inspire other countries to disarm, Germany
        ment’s report on the implementation, between
        2010 and 2014, of the action plan “Civilian Crisis
        Prevention, Conflict Resolution, and Post-Conflict   14 Cf. Bund für Soziale Verteidigung, January 2017,
        Peace-Building”. See: Die Bundesregierung, 2014.        p. 1.
2 THE POSITIVE SCENARIO: “SUSTAINABLE CIVIL SECURITY”                                                19

decides in 2025 to disarm militarily by 2040       strongly for a strengthening - instead of the
and to make its contribution to common secu-       continued weakening - of the UN and to in-
rity as a member of NATO through the expan-        crease its diplomatic and humanitarian in-
sion of the civilian capacities of the OSCE.       volvement. This means bolstering and in-
Prior to 2024, Directorate General S of the        creasing the use of existing UN instruments
Federal Foreign Office, “Crisis Prevention,        for peaceful conflict prevention and resolu-
Stabilisation, and Post-Conflict Peace-Build-      tion whilst also reforming them and develop-
ing”, which was created in 2015, already un-       ing them further. During the years running up
dergoes major expansion.                           to 2030, it is possible to further develop the
                                                   “just policing” model as a project which
Germany’s increasing prioritisation of civil se-
                                                   demonstrates the way forward. This model is
curity encounters strong resistance from
                                                   outlined in the Catholic-Mennonite dialogue in
NATO partner countries initially. But several
                                                   the USA and is recommended as a preventive
factors lead to a growing willingness to accept
                                                   measure, which the international community
Germany’s concentration on policing and civil
                                                   can use in response to threats to world peace,
security measures only: the growing success
                                                   by a study published by the FEST
of German diplomacy; the establishment of
                                                   (Forschungsstätte der Evangelischen Studi-
the Economic and Security Partnership be-
                                                   engemeinschaft) in 2017.15
tween the EU and the EAEU; and the contri-
bution made by German civilian experts to          From 2025 Germany pushes for emerging na-
crisis prevention and de-escalation, which can     tions and the global South to have better op-
no longer be overlooked.                           portunities to participate in international
                                                   bodies commensurate with their growing po-
So from 2040 onwards Germany contributes
                                                   tential. Germany thereby promotes more
to common security in Europe and the world
                                                   equal participation in the development of the
exclusively through civilian staff and resources
                                                   international order. At the same time, Ger-
under the umbrella of the OSCE. Although this
                                                   many drives the growth and development of
contribution initially meets with sceptical
                                                   international criminal law under the aegis of
sneers and opposition, it nevertheless gains
                                                   the UN.
growing recognition within NATO. The deploy-
ment of civilian peace experts and the train-      Strong participation in UN peacekeeping
ing of local people in resilient democracy be-     missions
come established pillars of the OSCE. Even
                                                   Although Germany contributed only 19 police
NATO, in its policy and practice, recognises
                                                   officers and 63 civilian experts to interna-
these measures as a contribution of the EU’s
                                                   tional UN peacekeeping missions in 2014,16
Common Security and Defence Policy.
                                                   this contribution increases to 1,000 police of-
The UN - the global security architecture          ficers and 2,000 civilian experts in 2030. In
                                                   2017 the federal government committed itself
Since 11 September 2001 the world has be-
                                                   to long-term, strong and highly qualified sup-
come more and more accustomed to individ-
                                                   port for international missions in its guide-
ual groups of states claiming for themselves
                                                   lines “Preventing Crises, Overcoming Conflict,
the right to wage war against other states,
                                                   Promoting Peace” (Chapter 3.2.2). Following
parastate entities, or terrorist organisations -
                                                   the Bundestag’s 2025 resolution, Germany in-
even without an explicit mandate in accord-
                                                   creases its involvement in international UN
ance with Chapter VII of the UN Charter.
                                                   peacekeeping missions to more than 5,000
In conjunction with the reduction and finally      police officers and 50,000 civilian experts.
the termination of Germany’s oft disputed
participation in international military inter-
vention, the German Bundestag instructs the        15 Cf. Schabach, 2007 and Werkner et al, 2017.
federal government in 2025 and 2035 to push        16 Cf. Bundesregierung, 2014, p. 46
You can also read