REVIEW June 2019 - Chestertons MENA

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Chestertons Monthly

PROPERTYꢀ
MARKETS
REVIEW
                  June 2019

chestertons.com

                              1
CONTENTS
Economic Overview                                                  01

Residential property                                               03
National sales                                                     03
London sales                                                       06
New homes                                                          08
National lettings                                                  09
London lettings                                                    10

Commercial property                                                11
London office market                                                 11
Retail market                                                      11

Investment market                                                  12
Residential                                                        12
Commercial                                                         14

Contact                                                            15

                                   Nicholas Barnes – Head of Research

                                   “Welcome to
                             our latest monthly
                        review of national and
                       London residential and
                          commercial property
                                       markets.”
                                                                        2
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
GDP Growth
The UK economy slowed in the three months to April,           In its June projections, the Treasury’s forecasting panel
withꢀGDP expanding by just 0.3% compared to 0.5% in the       heldꢀits GDP growth outlook for 2019 at 1.4% but lowered
previous three month period. All main sectors contributed     its 2020 forecast, also to 1.4%.
positively to growth, although the services sector recorded
                                                              Brexit has temporarily taken second stage to the domestic
its lowest rolling three month growth since April 2018.
                                                              political scene as the process for appointing the new leader
Negative monthly growth was recorded in March and
                                                              of the Conservative Party gets underway. Regardless of
April, mainly due to a dramatic fall in car production with
                                                              who gets the job, the EU has reaffirmed that it will not
uncertainty ahead of the original Brexit day resulting in
                                                              re-negotiate the deal currently on the table, so the rhetoric
planned shutdowns. There was also widespread weakness
                                                              of the candidates appears more to do with getting elected
across manufacturing in April and early indications suggest
                                                              rather than a genuine belief it can achieve a favourable
manufacturing output fell to a 34 month low in May. In
                                                              deal for the UK.
response to the bad news, the pound fell to a five month
low of 1.256 against the US dollar at the end of May.

Figure 1: UK GDP growth outlook

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5
                                                                     1.7%                1.7%                   1.8%
1.0        1.4%               1.4%                1.4%
0.5

0.0
            2018               2019                2020              2021                2022                   2023

                                                                                         Source: ONS; HM Treasury Forecast Panel

                                                                                                                                   1
Inflation & interest rates
Annual CPI inflation fell back to 1.9% in May compared          The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee held
to 2.0% in April, while RPI inflation remained at 3.0%. The     Bank Rate at 0.75% in its May meeting. UK 3 month Libor
Treasury’s forecast panel has this month reduced its 2019      rates have come down again this month and as at 19th
forecast for CPI to 1.8% but has increased its 2020 forecast   June stood at 0.79%. 5 year swap rates have come down
to 2.1%. The 2019 projection for RPI was lowered to 2.5%       more significantly and stood at 0.82% at the same date.
but the 2020 forecast was held at 2.9%.

Figure 2: Inflation & Bank Rate forecasts

4.0

3.5
                                                                       3.0%                3.1%                  3.0%
3.0                                                 2.9%
            2.7%                2.5%
2.5
            2.1%                                    2.1%
2.0                             1.8%                                   1.9%               1.9%                   2.0%
                                                                                          1.64%                 1.86%
1.5                                                                   1.45%
                                                   1.15%
1.0                            0.83%
            0.75%
0.5

0.0
            2018                2019                2020               2021               2022                   2023

        Bank Rate (Q4)         CPI         RPI                                           Source: ONS; HM Treasury Forecast Panel

Employment and earnings growth
The UK latest employment rate remains the joint-highest        3.4% while real incomes rose by 1.5% compared with a
on record at 76.1%, while the unemployment rate is also        year earlier. Including bonuses, average weekly earnings
stable at 3.8%, the lowest since the last quarter of 1974.     increased by 3.1%, before adjusting for inflation, and by
ONS data reveal that, excluding bonuses, average nominal       1.2%, after adjusting for inflation.
weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain rose by

                                                                                                                                   2
RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY
National sales market
Monthly sales rose slightly in both the UK (1.0%) and                 lowꢀavailability and affordability issues, sales in the year
England (2.3%), but compared to May 2018 they were                    toꢀMay 2019 were only slightly down on the corresponding
lower by, respectively, 5.8% and 4.7%. Notwithstanding                period last year (-1.3% in the UK and -1.2% in England).

Figure 3: Monthly residential property transactions (non-seasonally adjusted)

140000

120000

100000

 80000

 60000

 40000

 20000

     0
          May-18    Jun-18      Jul-18    Aug-18   Sep-18   Oct-18    Nov-18   Dec-18   Jan-19   Feb-19    Mar-19    Apr-19   May-19

              UK          England                                                                                          Source: HMRC

Annual UK house price growth slowed to 1.4% in April,                 where prices in the year to April slowed to 1.1% compared
down from 1.6% in the previous month, according to the                to 1.3% in the previous month. The average house price in
Land Registry. A similar pattern was recorded in England,             the UK now stands at £228,903 and £245,128 in England.

Figure 4: Average annual house price growth: UK & England
5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

0%
     May-18    Jun-18        Jul-18      Aug-18    Sep-18    Oct-18     Nov-18    Dec-18     Jan-19       Feb-19    Mar-19      Apr-19

         UK        England                                                                                     Source: Land Registry/ONS

                                                                                                                                           3
At regional level, annual house price growth is strongest in                 Two regions (London and South East) recorded further price
the East Midlands, where 12 month growth to April 2019                       falls over the period, with the South East (-0.8%) the worst
reached 2.9%.                                                                affected outside London.

Figure 5: Average regional house price & annual price growth (April 2019)

£500,000                                                                                                                                                4

£450,000
                                                                                                                                                        3
                                2.6%        2.5%
£400,000          2.9%
                                                                             2%                                                                         2
£350,000                                                    2.2%

£300000                                                                                      1.3%                                                       1
                                                                                                              0.6%

£200,000                                                                                                                                                0

£250,000                                                                                                                      - 0.8%
                                                                                                                                                        -1
£150,000                                                                                                                                   -1.2%
                                                                                                                                                        -2
£100,000

 £50,000                                                                                                                                                -3

       £0                                                                                                                                               -4
              East             North      Yorks &           West            North            South            East of        South         London
            Midlands           West       Humber           Midlands         East             West            England          East

               Avg prices       12 months growth                                                                                     Source: Land Registry

The asking price of newly-marketed property rose by an                       prices. This has helped push the national average price of
average of 0.3% in June according to Rightmove. Buyers                       property coming to market to within £91 of a new record
in four regions – East Midlands, the North West, Wales and                   despite the backdrop of political uncertainty.
Yorkshire & the Humber - recorded their highest ever asking

Figure 6: Monthly change in average asking prices
3%

2%

                                                    1.0%                                                                     1.1%         0.9%
1%
         0.4%                                                                         0.4%                                                           0.3%
                      -0.1%               0.7%                                                       0.7%            0.4%
0%

-1%
                                                                   -1.7%
                                                                              -1.5%
-2%
                              -2.3%
-3%
      Jun-18      Jul-18      Aug-18   Sep-18    Oct-18       Nov-18       Dec-18     Jan-19        Feb-19     Mar-19       Apr-19     May-19      Jun-19

                                                                                                                                       Source: Rightmove

                                                                                                                                                             4
Nationally, the supply of new properties coming onto                  The number of new first time buyer (FTB) mortgages
the market is down by an average of 5% so far this year               approved in April fell by 5.2% compared to the previous
compared to the same time last year, a trend most notable             month but was 7.9% up on the same month in 2018. New
in parts of the south. In contrast, the northerly regions are all     mortgages for home movers were broadly stable (+0.4%)
beating the national average: in the East Midlands, new seller        compared to March and were 6.4% higher than in April last
supply is up by 0.3%, in Yorkshire & the Humber it’s down             year. Other key mortgage indicators are broadly similar to
by just 0.2%, in Wales it has fallen by 2.5% and in theꢀNorth         last year: mean loan-to-value ratios are 78.0% (77.2% in April
West it is 2.7% lower. The north/south divide is even more            2018) for FTBs and 67.9% (66.7%) for movers; mean loan-to-
pronounced with regard to sales. On average theꢀnumber                income multiples for FTBs are 3.50 (3.48 in April 2018) and
ofꢀsales agreed for the year to date in the northern regions          unchanged at 3.27 for movers. Repayments for both FTBs
isꢀdown by 1.7% compared to the same period last year,                (17.2% of income) and movers (17.5%) are also unchanged.
whileꢀinꢀthe southern regions sales are down by an average            Average loan sizes have risen more noticeably – by 3.0% (to
ofꢀ7.1%.                                                              £168,808) for FTBs and by 3.6% (to £221,399) for movers.

Figure 7: Mortgage approvals
40000

35000

30000

25000

20000

15000

10000

 5000

     0
            Apr-18   May-18    Jun-18     Jul-18   Aug-18    Sep-18   Oct-18    Nov-18    Dec-18     Jan-19    Feb-19    Mar-19    Apr-19

           First time buyers             Home movers                                                                    Source: UK Finance

Investment manager Hargreaves Lansdown reports that                   – Stabilise house prices to reduce the house-price-to-income ratio.
young people aged 18-34 are four times more likely to be              – Create a Common Ground Trust to help prospective buyers
planning to downsize than those over the age of 55. 12%                 purchase homes. The Trust would buy the land underlying a
of people in this age group say they will be downsizing,                house, making the upfront deposit for home ownership much
                                                                        more affordable. In return, buyers would pay a land rent to the
compared to just 3% of homeowners aged 55+. 27% of the
                                                                        Trust.
would-be young downsizers are tenants who are having to
                                                                      – Replace council tax with a progressive property tax, payable
move into a smaller property due to rising rents and stagnant           by owners and not tenants. The valuation of properties for tax
wage growth. Affordability is a real issue: the average annual           purposes should be updated annually, and empty homes and
salary is about £30,000 but the average asking price for a              second homes should automatically be taxed at a higher rate.
home in Britain is currently £308,290, and more than double             There would be a surcharge for all UK properties owned by
that in London, according to Rightmove.                                 non-residents.
                                                                      – Stamp Duty Land Tax should be phased out for owner
The Labour Party’s recently released “Land for the Many”                occupiersꢀand capital gains tax for second homes and
policy document outlines some major changes it would                    investmentꢀproperties should be increased. Inheritance tax
introduce in the way the residential property market is                 shouldꢀbe abolished and replaced with a lifetime gifts’ tax
regulated. Key proposals include:                                       leviedꢀon the recipient.

– There should be free and open access to information on who
  owns land, including the identities of the beneficial owners.

                                                                                                                                             5
London sales market
Land Registry data reveals that annual house price                 Despite the slight deceleration in negative growth,
growthꢀin Greater London has been in negative territory            the trend line is still pointing downwards and even the
every month since July 2018. In the year to April 2019,            continuing shortages of available supply are unlikely to
average prices fell by 1.2%, an improvement at least               prevent further decline in the coming months as buyers
fromꢀthe March decline of 2.5%.                                    grapple with affordability issues and the backdrop of
                                                                   political and economic uncertainty.

Figure 8: Annual price growth in Greater London

1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
-0.5%
-1.0%
-1.5%
-2.0%
-2.5%
-3.0%
        May-18    Jun-18    Jul-18   Aug-18    Sep-18     Oct-18      Nov-18    Dec-18     Jan-19     Feb-19     Mar-19     Apr-19

                                                                                                                 Source: Land Registry

On an annual measure, prices are now falling in 22                 There have been asking price falls in this month for the
boroughsꢀwith Southwark (-8.3%) recording the steepest             last three years, and while not a recovery, the 2.0% annual
decline. The strongest growth was recorded in Greenwich            rateꢀof decrease is the best it has been since January and
atꢀ3.5%. Meanwhile, Rightmove reports that the price of            a considerable improvement on the 3.8% drop recorded
newly-marketed property in London fell by an average of            asꢀrecently as March. This less severe fall was helped by a year-
0.4%ꢀin June.                                                      onꢁyear increase in the price of TfL Zone 3 properties, which
                                                                   rose by 0.5%. All other Zones showed annual asking price falls.

                                                                                                                                         6
Figure 9: Annual price growth by London borough (April 2019)

            Greenwich
 Barking and Dagenham
             Hounslow
              Hackney
               Merton
Hammersmith & Fulham
              Newham
              Croydon
        Waltham Forest
            Hillingdon
            Richmond
           Westminster
             Lewisham
                Enꢀeld
                Bexley
                Sutton
         Tower Hamlets
             Redbridge
                 Brent
               Bromley
  Kensington & Chelsea
              Havering
              Islington
               Harrow
          Wandsworth
         City of London
                 Ealing
                Barnet
              Kingston
              Lambeth
              Camden
              Haringey
            Southwark
                          -10        -8            -6         -4           -2            0            2               4

                                                                                                     Source: Land Registry

Buyer demand in central London remains strong in terms       sameꢀthree months last year according to Lonres,
ofꢀapplicant registrations and viewings. However, this has   withꢀanꢀaverage discount on initial asking price of 8.9%.
not yet translated into a similar level of transactions as   Despiteꢀavailability at mid-June being 12% down on the
buyers remain very selective in terms of quality, location   corresponding point inꢀ2018, 46% of available stock had
and perceived value for money. The period March-May          been reduced in price. Average sold prices between March
2019 saw a 6.8% reduction in sales compared to the           and May were 2.7% lower than in the same period in 2018.

                                                                                                                             7
New homes market
The Build-to-Rent (BTR) sector continues to expand,            Moreover, recent research into rental levels showed there
withꢀthe number of homes in the pipeline up 22%                was a strong correlation between BTR rents and existing
last yearꢀto 140,000 according to theꢀBritish Property         median rents in a new scheme’s location, albeit the BTR
Federation (BPF). The headline data suggest that BTR is        rents were slightly higher than the existing average. The
slightly more expensive than existing rental stock, however    distribution of rents indicates it is easier to build studio
a straightforward rent comparison ignores the fact that        and one-bed units that are in line with existing rents,
theꢀproduct offering differs between the two sectors.            whereas two- and three-bedroom units are more expensive
                                                               compared to existing rents. The BPF reports that in the
Rents at most BTR schemes include many fees and charges
                                                               average London BTR scheme, 35% of the units could
which residents in “buy-to-let” rented stock owned by
                                                               beꢀrented at a discount of 20%, or 20% of units could
individual investors have to pay on top of rent, for example
                                                               beꢀrented at bigger discounts.ꢀ
internet, utilities, letting fees and even gyms. Many large
BTR operators have also done away with deposits, which
usually equate to between four and six weeks’ rent.ꢀ

Figure 10: London BTR completions: 2009 – Q1 2019 annualised

14000

10500

 7000

  3500

     0
           2009      2010       2011       2012      2013      2014     2015       2016      2017       2018        2019
                                                                                                               (Q1 annualised)

                                                                                                                Source: Moilor
          Inner London      Outer London

Developer Places for People (PfP) and modular housing          The homes will be a combination of market-priced and
provider ilke Homes have struck the UK’s largest-ever          affordable housing, and will initially comprise two-three
modular housing deal. The total value of the deal, under       bedroom family homes.
which PfP will acquire 750 housing units produced by ilke,
isꢀreported to be around £100m.

                                                                                                                                 8
National lettings market
UK rental growth slowed again in May according to                  New Government data indicates that the rental housing
Homelet. Average rents increased by 1.6% compared                  stock in England increased by 10,000 between March 2017
toꢀMay 2018, which is down from 2.0% recorded in                   and March 2018. This rise came despite the introduction
April. Theꢀaverage monthly rent now stands at £934 per             ofꢀthe 3% stamp duty surcharge, the reduction of buy-to-let
calendar month and £776 (up 1.7% compared to May last              tax reliefs and new Minimum Energy Efficiency Standards in
year) when London is excluded. Rents fell in two regions           England and Wales, all of which created added financial strain
– NorthꢀEast (-2.1%) and Yorks & Humber (-0.2%) – and              for landlords. However, the statistics also showed that privately
the strongest growth among English regions was recorded            rented housing represented a slightly smaller proportion
inꢀEast Midlands (3.7%).                                           of the overall housing stock for the first time in three years:
                                                                   19.9% of all dwellings in England compared toꢀ20% in the
                                                                   previous 12 month period.

Figure 11: Average monthly asking rents & annual growth by region (May 2019)

£1,800
                 3.7%                                                                                                           4%

£1,600
                                2.9%                                                                                            3%

£1,400
                                                            1.9%                                                                2%
                                       2.2%       2.1%
£1,200

                                                                                                                                1%
£1,000
                                                                      1.0%

 £800                                                                             0.5%         0.5%
                                                                                                              -0.2%             0%

 £600

                                                                                                                                -1%
 £400

 £200                                                                                                                           -2%
                                                                                                                       -2.1%

    £0
          East          South       West        South    North      Greater     East Of     Scotland    Yorks &       North     -3%
         Midlands        West      Midlands      East    West       London      England                 Humber         East

          Ave rent        12 month growth (%)                                                                         Source: Homelet

Analysis from letting compliance firm VeriSmart suggests that       – Tenancies should be open-ended and landlords should lose
if households currently renting continue to do so at present         their power to evict a tenant who has not broken the terms of
                                                                     the tenancy agreement for the first three years of the tenancy
rates then the UK will see more people renting than owning
                                                                     agreement, and should have to provide grounds for eviction
a home by 2039. By 2045, 55% of UK households will be
                                                                     afterꢀthat point.
living in privately rented accommodation and just 45% will
own their own home. The growth of bespoke, professionally          – There should be a cap on annual rent increases, fixed at
managed rental stock in the Build-to-Rent sector, together           no more than the rate of wage inflation or consumer price
                                                                     inflationꢀ(whichever is lower).
with various tenant friendly legislation changes, has made
renting more appealing as a longer term option.                    – Buy-to-let mortgages should be more firmly regulated and
                                                                     restricted.
Labour’s “Land for the Many” policy document also proposes
a major reform of the private rented sector, including:

                                                                                                                                        9
London lettings market
Rental growth has also slowed again in London, in spite        month of 2018, down from 1.8% in the previous month.
ofꢀreported shortages of available stock as many landlords     The average rent in the capital now stands at £1,602
have sold properties to owner occupiers rather than to other   per calendar month, which is 71.5% higher than the UK
landlords. HomeLet reports that rents for new tenancies in     average and 106.4% higher when London is excluded
London increased by 1.0% in May compared to the same           fromꢀthe UK average.

Figure 12: London borough monthly asking rents for 2-bed flats (as at 17 Jun 2019)
          City of London
            Westminster
   Kensington & Chelsea
                 Camden
Hammersmith & Fulham
            Wandsworth
              Southwark
                Islington
                Lambeth
         Tower Hamlets
                Hackney
                  Merton
Richmond upon Thames
                    Ealing
               Hounslow
              Greenwich
                Haringey
                Newham
                   Barnet
                     Brent
               Lewisham
 Kingston upon Thames
                 Harrowꢀ
                   Enfield
                 Bromley
         Waltham Forest
               Redbridge
               Hillingdon
                 Croydon
                   Sutton
   Barking & Dagenham
                Havering
                    Bexley
                             0      1000         2000          3000         4000          5000          6000         7000
Source: Zoopla

Barking & Dagenham council will introduce a 5 year             The central London lettings market has enjoyed a strong
compulsory licence scheme for private landlords on 1st         past few months. Between March and May, Lonres reports
September this year. Landlords with previous management        that the number of agreed lettings was 17.7% higher
contraventions and who are “of concern” may only be            than in the previous three month period. As at mid-June,
granted one year licences. It will be a criminal offence for    available stock was also slightly higher (+0.4%) than at the
landlords to operate without a licence after 1st September,    same point in 2018. Rents remain under slight downwards
with a risk of prosecution and a fine. The new scheme will      pressure, although in those locations where availability is
affect approximately 20,000 households in the borough.          insufficient to meet tenant demand, there are signs that
It remains to be seen how many other boroughs will             rents have flattened. Nonetheless, Lonres reports that in the
followꢀBarking & Dagenham’s example. Lewisham Council          period March-May this year, the average discount on initial
isꢀalready consulting on introducing compulsory licensing      asking rent was 2.9%, while 29% of properties available to
for private landlords.                                         rent as at mid-June had suffered a rent reduction.

                                                                                                                              10
COMMERCIAL PROPERTY
London office market
The construction of new offices in central London has hit         Office development in the West End is up 10% on the
its highest level in three years, according to Deloitte Real    previous survey, while Midtown and King’s Cross also
Estate’s latest biannual London Office Crane Survey (Q1           experienced a boost in construction activity, with the
2019). The survey recorded 37 new schemes, including            squareꢀfootage under construction increasing by 7%
refurbishments, breaking ground in the previous six months,     andꢀ65% respectively.
adding 3.5m sq ft to the development pipeline. Total office
                                                                More than half (55%) the office space under construction
space under construction in the capital stood at 13.2m sq
                                                                is already let and for larger schemes, more than three
ft, which is 12% up on the amount recorded inꢀthe previous
                                                                quarters (78%) is pre-committed. Financial services,
survey (Q3 2018).
                                                                technology, media and telecoms have been the main
The City continues to dominate construction activity,           sources of demand for pre-let space.
accounting for just over half (51%) of the total volume
                                                                Grade A rents in the City currently stand at £55–£70/sq ft
across the capital and has also seen a shift in favour of
                                                                and in the West End at £110–£120/sq ft.
large-scale refurbishments versus new builds.

Retail market
Britain’s retailers are warning of a fresh wave of job losses   Meanwhile, UK shop prices in May recorded their second
and store closures after consumer spending recorded its         highest growth rate in the last six years as retailers tried
biggest drop in almost a quarter of a century last month.       to combat the effects of high rents and rates and a weak
Retail sales in May saw the biggest decline since records       pound. According to data from BRC and Nielsen, total shop
began in 1995 according to the latest BRC-KPMG Retail           price inflation accelerated to 0.8% and non-food prices rose
Sales Monitor. On a total basis, sales decreased by 2.7%        by 0.2%, although food inflation decelerated to 1.8%.
in May, compared to an increase of 4.1% in May last year,
                                                                Given the poor retail performance, the latest consumer
the weakest performance since it began its monthly survey
                                                                confidence survey results appear counter-intuitive.
in 1995. Like-for-like sales decreased by 3% compared to
                                                                British consumer confidence has reached its highest level
the same period last year, marking the steepest like-for-like
                                                                since September last year, thanks to an improvement in
decline since December 2008. Food sales dropped for the
                                                                sentiment around personal finances and a less pessimistic
first time since June 2016 and even online sales of non-
                                                                view of the year ahead. According to the latest Consumer
food products only grew 1.5%, which is against a growth
                                                                Confidence Index from GfK, consumer sentiment rose to
ofꢀ11.5% in May last year. Meanwhile, online penetration
                                                                -10 in May compared to April’s index reading -13, although
rates increased to 30.3%, up from 28.2% in May 2018.
                                                                the results remain comfortably in negative territory.
Latest footfall data are also not encouraging. The BRC
                                                                Retail rents in London have come under downwards
Springboard tracker reports that footfall dropped by 3.5%
                                                                pressure this year as vacancy rates have edged upwards.
in May, as the UK experienced what was called “the worst
                                                                Prime West End vacancy rates nonetheless remain low at
footfall figures in six years” with declines in every region.
                                                                just over 3%. Prime Zone A rents in Q1 were down by as
High streets, retail parks and shopping centres all suffered.
                                                                much as 6%-8% in some locations although were broadly
Inclement weather and ongoing political and economic
                                                                stable in others.
uncertainty were blamed for the poor figures. Highꢀstreet
visits declined by 4.8%, retail park footfall was down by
0.8% and shopping centre footfall fell by 3.6% in May.

                                                                                                                               11
INVESTMENT MARKET
Residential

Figure 13: BTL Mortgage Lending (number of loans approved)

18,000
16,200
14,400
12,600
10,800
 9,000
 7,200
 5,400
 3,600
 1,800
    0
           Apr-18   May-18   Jun-18   Jul-18   Aug-18   Sep-18   Oct-18   Nov-18   Dec-18   Jan-19   Feb-19   Mar-19    Apr-19

          House purchase              Remortgage                                                              Source: UK Finance

The introduction of the Tenant Fees’ Act 2019 is facing          many landlords remain active. The number of approved
considerable opposition from landlords and agents, but           buy-to-let (BTL) mortgage loans rose for the second month
despite survey evidence suggesting that this will trigger        in a row in April – by 2% - but was flat compared to April
an exodus from the sector – in particular the removal of         last year. Re-mortgaging jumped by 9.1% compared to the
Section 21 Notices – the level of mortgage activity suggests     previous month, but was also flat compared to April 2018.

                                                                                                                                   12
Figure 14: gross initial yields for 2-bed flats (at 20 June 2019)

   Barking & Dagenham
                    Bexley
                Havering
                   Sutton
                  Merton
               Redbridge
                 Croydon
 Hammersmith & Fulham
                Newham
               Hounslow
                    Ealing
                     Brent
            Westminster
              Greenwich
               Lewisham
                   Enfield
               Hillingdon
                 Harrowꢀ
                Kingston
                 Bromley
         Waltham Forest
            Wandsworth
                 Camden
                   Barnet
         Tower Hamlets
                Islington
              Richmond
                Haringey
          City of London
   Kensington & Chelsea
              Southwark
                Lambeth
                 Hackney
                             0            1                2              3               4                   5                  6
                                                                                              Source: Zoopla & Chestertons Research

There has been an increase in the number of older people        Over 55s now account for 39% of all buy-to-let mortgages
investing in the buy-to-let sector according to a report from   and re-mortgages.
Commercial Trust, which saw borrowers aged between 65
                                                                Greystar Real Estate Partnersꢀis planning to raise £750m for
and 75 increase their share of BTL mortgage applications
                                                                its first UK built-to-rent fund. TheꢀGreystarꢀUK Multifamily
by 5.4% in 2018. The increase is due partly to an increase
                                                                Fund I (GSUM I) is the first in a planned series of UK rental
in the number of mortgage lenders that have increased
                                                                housing funds targeting purpose-built, institutional-quality
their maximum age at the end of the mortgage term
                                                                rental properties in London. Greystar currently has more
from 75 to 85 years, while also pushing up their maximum
                                                                than 3,500 units under development in the UK and nearly
mortgage term. A requirement for an income supplement
                                                                £5bn in assets under management.
in retirement is also a major reason behind the increase.

                                                                                                                                      13
Commercial
Investor appetite for London, from both UK and                The MSCI average equivalent office yield in the City
overseasꢀinvestors, remains strong but a shortage of          softened to 5.45% in May as did the net initial yield
available opportunities of sufficiently high quality is         which stands at 4.43%, the highest since August 2014.
limiting the number of actual transactions. The shortage      The MSCI average net initial yield in the West End moved
of opportunities has resulted in an increase in competitive   out marginally to 3.66%. Prime City office yields remain
bidding for the available good quality stock while            between 4.00%-4.50% and West End prime yields are
investors are also more open to off market deals. In the       atꢀ3.25%-3.75%.
City, theꢀlargest deal in May was the Mormon Church’s
                                                              Outside London, UAE-based financial services company
£100mꢀpurchase of 10 Noble Street, EC2, reflecting a
                                                              Gulf Islamic Investments (GII) has acquired an office
netꢀinitial yield of 4.4%.
                                                              building in Birmingham for £140m, claimed to be the
Mayfair Capital has reportedly agreed a deal to buy the       UK’sꢀlargest office transaction outside of the capital so
Bonhill office building in Shoreditch from Legal & General      farꢀthis year.
(L&G) for around £110m. L&G bought the 114,543 sq ft
                                                              2019 has seen an increase in the number of occupiers
building for £62.6m in 2014, at a net yield of around 5%.
                                                              buying freeholds as a result of the changes brought into
                                                              lease accounting by IFRS 16, with Citigroup’s purchase of
                                                              25 Canada Square for £1.1bn the largest example to date.

                                                                                                                          14
Hampstead
                                                                                   Kentish Town

                                           Camden & Primrose Hill
                                                                                                      Islington
                                                                   St. John’s Wood
                                                              Little Venice

                               Hyde Park & Marylebone                                     Covent Garden
                               Notting Hill
                                                                           Mayfair
                                                       Kensington
                                                                                                                    Tower Bridge                    Canary Wharf
                                                                            Knightsbridge & Belgravia
        Chiswick                South Kensington              Chelsea        Westminster & Pimlico
                                      Earls Court
                                                                                                                            Greenwich & Blackheath
                                                 Fulham                  Battersea Park
Kew                            Barnes
                                                  Parsons Green
                East Sheen
                                                                 Battersea & Clapham
                                           Putney
 Richmond                                                 Wandsworth

 Contact
 Chestertons is one of London’s largest estate agencies and has a network of over 30 offices offering sales and lettings
 services, in addition to a strong international presence including Caribbean, Middle East, Monaco, France, Spain, Portugal,
 Switzerland and Australia. For further information please contact one of the following:

 Nicholas Barnes                                         John Woolley
 Head of Research                                        Head of Valuation

 T: +44 (0) 20 3040 8406                                 T: +44 (0) 20 3040 8513
 E: nicholas.barnes@chestertons.com                      E: john.woolley@chestertons.com

 The contents of this report are intended for the purpose of general information and should not be relied upon as the basis for decision taking on the part of
 the reader. Although every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information contained within this report at the time of writing, no liability is
 accepted by Chesterton Global for any loss or damage resulting from its use. Reproduction of this report in whole or in part is not permitted without the prior
 written approval of Chesterton Global. June 2019.

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