School Demand Report - The South Docks SHD
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December 2020
School Demand Report
Former Ford Distribution Site, Centre Park Road, Cork
December 2020
Prepared on behalf of
Marina Quarter Ltd.
www.mhplanning.ie DUBLIN CORK
Kreston House, Arran Court 6 Joyce House, Barrack Square
Arran Quay, Dublin 7 Ballincollig, Co. Cork
D07 K271 P31 YX97
T. +353 (0) 1 804 4477 T. +353 (0)21 420 8710
E. info@mhplanning.ie E. info@mhplanning.ie
Introduction
McCutcheon Halley Chartered Planning Consultants are appointed by Marina Quarter Ltd. to prepare a School
Demand Report which considers the existing primary and post-primary facilities in the vicinity of the South
Docks as well as the delivery of the 3 no. schools envisioned as part of the regeneration plans for this part of
Cork City. The report will inform the proposed development of 1,002 no. residential units at The Former Ford
Distribution Site, Centre Park Road, Cork.
This School Demand Report is submitted in response to item 7 of An Bord Pleanála’s Opinion which requires
the following:
“A report identifying demand for school and crèche places likely to be generated by the proposal and
the capacity of existing schools and crèches in the vicinity to cater for such demand.”
This report provides details on the current and future capacity of existing and proposed schools in the area
along with the demand for places likely to be generated by the proposed development.
In undertaking a review of the required school provision for the proposed development, this report will:
Consider the current policy context for future school provision in the area;
Determine an appropriate catchment area based on sustainable modes of transport;
Consider demographic trends in the school area population;
Assess the capacity of existing schools within the catchment area;
Estimate the future student yield;
Future delivery of zoned school site.
Fig. 1 Site Context (site outlined in red)
A number of sources were consulted in the preparation of this report:
www.education.ie and www.shooldays.ie were consulted to locate existing schools, enrolment
figures and the number of classrooms;
Projections of Full-Time Enrolment, Primary and Second Level, 2018 – 2036 report by the
Department of Education and Skills, July 2018
Census 2016 SAPMAP data;
Various school websites; and
Survey of existing schools undertaken by McCutcheon Halley
School Demand Report | December 2020 | 2
Policy Context
Cork City Development Plan 2015
The Cork City Development Plan 2015 states the following with regard to education in the city area:
Point 7.12 states:
“The provision of suitable and adequate primary and secondary education is an essential
element of any community. No substantial residential development should proceed without
an assessment of existing schools capacity or the provision of new school facilities in
tandem with the development”.
Objective 7.8 : Educational Facilities states that it is an objective:
“a. To ensure that school and college sites are made available in accordance with the
requirements of the relevant education authorities”.
“b. To support the ongoing development and provision of second and third level education
and lifelong learning in the city”.
Three school sites have been zoned to cater for the population envisioned for the South Docks. Section 13.82
of the CDP states:
…two new primary schools and a post-primary school are proposed to provide for the
educational demands of Docklands. These have been located both for ease of access to
immediate neighbouring facilities, having access to secure open space and to the lands at
Marina Park.
PP
P
P
Fig. 2 Cork City Development Plan – extract of zoning map.
P – indicates the future location of a Primary School
PP indicates the future location of a post-primary school
These school sites are zoned ZO 18 – Schools with an objective ‘To provide for new primary and post primary
schools’ and are identified in Figure 4.
Section 15.26 of the Plan further states:
School Demand Report | December 2020 | 3
This objective facilitates the provision of primary educational facilities to serve the
educational needs of the populations of the South Docks and the Mayfield/Montenotte
area; and a post-primary school site to serve the future population of the South Docks.
South Docks Local Area Plan 2008
While the South Docks Local Area Plan 2008 [LAP] is no longer in effect, it is referenced in the Cork City
Development Plan 2015 and the school sites zoned in the City Development Plan area consistent with the
LAP. The LAP also provided an estimated timeframe for the delivery of the schools based on a 20 year plan
for development commencing in 2007. Unfortunately, development of the South Docks did not progress in line
with the timeframes originally envisioned but we consider that the timeframe in the LAP gives an indication on
when schools will be delivered once development of the South Docks commences.
Proposed Phasing of
South Docks LAP Timeframe Development Years
School Delivery
Short Term 1 A – 2007-2010 Year 1-3
Provide 1 no. Primary
1B – 2011 – 2013 Year 4-6
School
Develop remaining
Medium Term 2014 – 2020 Year 7 – 13 primary and post-
primary schools
Long Term 2021 – 2027 Year 14 -20
Table 1 Summary of timeframes for delivery as outlined in Table 6.1 and 6.2 of the South Docks LAP
2008
Section 4.6.3 of the LAP specifies that each of the primary school sites is 1 ha in size and can accommodate
up to 32 no. classrooms. The post-primary school site is larger in size at 2.4 ha
The Provision of Schools and the Planning System – A Code of Practice
The Guidelines by the Department of Education and Science and the Department of the Environment, Heritage
and Local Government (2008) for the provision of Schools outlines the following core objectives for the effective
integration of schools and development planning systems:
Schools provision should be an integral part of the evolution of compact sustainable urban
development and the development of sustainable communities;
The provision of any new schools (both primary and post-primary) should be driven by and
emerge from an integrated approach between the planning functions of planning authorities
and the Department of Education and Science; and
Local authorities, as planning authorities, will support and assist the Department in ensuring
the timely provision of school sites.
School Demand Report | December 2020 | 4
Catchment Area
The catchment area for the proposed development has been determined by applying a 2km radius or
equivalent 10-25 minute travel time to ensure that schools can be accessed via a number of travel alternatives
including walking, cycling and driving. Public transport is not considered given the relatively short distances
from the subject site to the various school locations.
Fig. 3 The study area (site outlined in red)
The study area comprises the South Docks and several surrounding areas including Ballinlough, Ballintemple
and Blackrock and includes the following five ED areas – Knockrea B, City Hall B, Knockrea A, Mahon A and
Mahon C.
Fig. 4 The five Electoral Divisions (site outlined in red)
School Demand Report | December 2020 | 5
Area Age 0-4 Age 5-11 Age 12-18
Knockrea B 56 88 115
City Hall B 58 35 58
Knockrea A 107 142 97
Mahon C 166 240 243
Mahon A 334 493 414
Total Population 721 998 927
% of Population 5.98% 8.28% 7.69%
Table 2 Demographic Breakdown of Pre-school and School Age Population within the Catchment Area,
Census 2016
There are 10 no. primary schools, including 2 no. special schools, and 5 no. secondary schools located with
the 2 km catchment area as well as 3 no. zoned school sites. For the purposes of this study the special schools
and fee paying school have been omitted from our assessment as they would serve a wider catchment.
Fig. 5 Locations of primary, post-primary and future schools (site outlined in red)
School Demand Report | December 2020 | 6The 8 no. primary and 5 no. post-primary schools located in the study area are all within a 10-25 minute travel
time or 2km radius of the proposed development. Tables 3 and 4 below identify the distance from the subject
site to the schools and indicate the various driving, cycling and walking times required to access these schools.
Distance from
Primary School Drive Cycle Walk
Site
Our Lady of Lourdes National
1.4 km 2 6 20
School
St Anthony’s National School/ SN
1.3 km 1.5 5 18
Naomh Antaine
Ballintemple National School 0.6 km 1 4 12
Scoil Naisiunta Barra Naofa
1.3 km 1.5 5 18
Cailini/ Beaumont Girls NS
Scoil Barra Naofa Bhuachaili/
1.3 km 1.5 5 18
Beaumont Boys NS
Scoil Naomh Micheal 1.4 km 2 6 20
Scoil Ursula Primary School 1.8 km 4 8 25
Table 3 Travel Times to Primary School from the Proposed Development (all travel times in minutes)
Distance from
Post-Primary School Drive Cycle Walk
Site
Colaiste Daibheid 1.9 km 5 9 27
Colaiste Chriost Ri 1.9 km 5 9 27
Ashton School 1.0 km 1 3 12
Ursuline Secondary School 1.7 km 3 7 22
Regina Mundi College 1.8 km 4 8 25
Table 4 Travel Times to Post-Primary School from the Proposed Development (all travel times in
minutes)
School Demand Report | December 2020 | 7Future Demographic Trends in School Age Population
In July 2018, the Department of Education and Skills published a report detailing future demographic trends
that will impact the primary and post-primary student numbers. The ‘Projections of Full-Time Enrolment -
Primary and Second Level, 2018 – 2036’ report assessed demographic trends which will impact the future
population growth or school age children including fertility rates, births and net migration.
Based on their research the Department of Education and Skills has determined that the peak number of
primary school age children was anticipated in 2018 and that this population will begin to decline from 2019.
Fig. 6 Projections of Enrolment at Primary Level, Fig. 1 of the Projections of Full-Time Enrolment -
Primary and Second Level, 2018 – 2036’ Report
The Report indicates that the Department considers the M2F1, black line, to be the most probable scenario.
Based of their projected primary student population, this would suggest that the number of primary students
would peak in 2018 at 567,819 and then continuously decline to 474,968 by 2036. This represents a 16%
contraction of the primary school age population over an 18 year period.
The post-primary student projections are a continuation of the primary school population projection with the
peak of post-primary enrolments anticipated in 2024.
School Demand Report | December 2020 | 8Fig. 7 Projections of Enrolment at Second Level, Fig. 2 of the Projections of Full-Time Enrolment -
Primary and Second Level, 2018 – 2036’ Report
As with the primary level projections M2F1 scenario is considered the most likely by the Department with the
post-primary school population peaking at 402,176 in 2024. Enrolment would begin to decrease from 2025 to
a level of circa 336,500 by 2036, a contraction of 16% during this time period.
School Demand Report | December 2020 | 9Existing School Provision
Primary Schools
Enrolment figures for the 2019/20 academic year, published by the Department of Education and Skills, have
been used for this assessment. The Department has advised that enrolment figures for the 2020/21 academic
year will not be made available until early 2021.
An estimation of the capacity of each primary school can be calculated by applying a Pupil to Teacher Ratio
(PTR) to the number of classrooms in each school. The Department of Education and Skills recommends a
PTR of 1:26. The number of classrooms was multiplied by 26 to determine the capacity of the school. The
available capacity in each school was determined by subtracting the capacity of the school from the enrolment
figures.
Primary Schools
Estimated
Enrolment No. of
School Name Capacity based Available Capacity
2019/20 Classrooms
on PTR
Our Lady of Lourdes
235 9 234 -1
National School
St Anthony’s National
School/ SN Naomh 741 30 780 39
Antaine
Ballintemple National
226 9 234 8
School
Scoil Naisiunta Barra
Naofa Cailini/ 259 10 260 1
Beaumont Girls NS
Scoil Barra Naofa
Bhuachaili/ Beaumont 292 11 286 -6
Boys NS
Scoil Naomh Micheal 84 4 104 20
Scoil Ursula Primary
145 8 208 63
School
TOTAL 1982 81 2106 124
Table 5 Existing Primary school enrolment and capacity
In addition to the existing capacity of these schools, it should be noted that the Ballintemple National School
is planning to expand and is described as being at ‘Design Brief Stage’ by the Department of Education and
Skills.
The total enrolment of primary school children in the 7 no. existing schools is 1,982 pupils. Based on the study
undertaken, the available capacity within these schools for the 2019/20 academic year was circa 124 pupils.
As indicated earlier in this report, the Department of Education and Skills has indicated that the primary
population will decline from 2018. When the rate of decline published in their report has been applied to the
schools within the catchment, the local school enrolment decreases to an estimated 1,783 students. This
increases to available capacity from 124 spaces to 323 spaces within the local school network the year Phase
1 of the proposed development will be completed.
School Demand Report | December 2020 | 10Post Primary Schools
Estimation of capacity for post primary schools is more complex due to the range of courses available at this
level. To determine the available capacity in these schools, a survey of the schools was undertaken. The
available capacity figures are based on the responses from the individual schools.
Post-Primary Schools
Enrolment Estimated Capacity
School Name Available Capacity
2019/20 of School
Colaiste Daibheid 209 Full 209
Colaiste Chriost Ri 575 65 640
Ashton School 526 Full 526
Ursuline Secondary School 243 50 293
Regina Mundi College 566 Full 566
Total Enrolment and Capacity 2,119 115 2,234
Table 6 Post-primary schools in the area
Colaiste Daibheid has indicated that it is planning to expand their school to accommodate an additional 130
students. No planning application has been lodged to date.
There is an available capacity of 115 no. places in the existing secondary schools within the catchment. As
indicated earlier in this report, the post-primary student population is projected to increase up to 2024 before
beginning to decline. This will potentially create a short term need for additional secondary school student
places within the catchment area.
School Demand Report | December 2020 | 11Future Demand
The future demand for school places within the catchment will be phased with the proposed 10 years delivery
to complete the development.
The proposed schemed consist of 1002 residential units being constructed in 3 phases. The 3 phases have
been determined based on the constructability of the scheme with each podium consisting of a single phase:
Unit Size
Phase TOTAL
Studio 1 bed 2 bed 3 bed
1 (Blocks 1-4) 12 102 169 54 337
2 (Blocks 5-8) 14 96 161 50 321
3 (Blocks 9-12) 12 114 173 45 344
TOTAL 38 312 503 45 1002
Assumptions
All studio and 1 bedroom units will be omitted for the school assessment (consistent with the accepted
approach to the delivery of creches).
Average Persons per Household of 2.6 has been applied, this represents an average of the 5 ED’ within
the catchment: the combined EDs of Knockrea B, City Hall B, Knockrea A, Mahon C and Mahon A.
The Primary Age Cohort considers 5-11 year olds. This is 8.28% of the catchment population.
The Post Primary Age Cohort considers 12-18 year olds which is 7.69% of the catchment population.
The Forward Planning Unit of the Department of Education and Skills recommends that the estimated student
population is determined using the following percentages:
Primary School: 12%.
Post-Primary: 8.5%.
It should be noted that these figures exceed the actual proportion of the population which currently exists within
the catchment area at both primary and post-primary levels.
School Demand Report | December 2020 | 12Primary Student Population Estimate
Based on the assumptions outlined, an estimate of the mature student yield generated by each of the phases
has been estimated as follows.
Estimated
TOTAL
% No. no.
Phase 2+ Bedroom Avg PPH PTR
Population Students classrooms
Units
required
1 (Blocks 1-4) 223 2.6 12 70 26 2.6
2 (Blocks 5-8) 211 2.6 12 65 26 2.5
3 (Blocks 9-12) 218 2.6 12 68 26 2.7
TOTAL 652 203 8
It is estimated that there will be circa 20 new students generated per year over the 10 year lifespan of the
permission. It should be acknowledged that the 204 students anticipated will not necessarily appear on first
occupancy and it will likely take several years before the mature student yield is met.
The existing primary schools within the catchment area currently have capacity to accommodate 124 no.
additional students and based on population trends, there will be additional capacity available in the future with
an estimated 323 no. student places being available when Phase 1 of the proposed scheme is complete. Even
if the primary population does not decline at the rate anticipated by the Department of Education, there is
adequate capacity within these schools to cater for the initial phases of the proposed development.
Post-Primary Student Population Estimate
Based on the assumptions outlined, an estimate of the mature student yield generated by each of the phases
has been estimated as follows.
Estimated Estimated
TOTAL
% No. No. no.
Phase 2+ Bedroom Avg PPH
Population Students Students classrooms
Units
per class required
1 (Blocks 1-4) 223 2.6 8.5 49 25 2.0
2 (Blocks 5-8) 211 2.6 8.5 47 25 1.9
3 (Blocks 9-12) 218 2.6 8.5 48 25 1.9
TOTAL 652 144 6
Phase 1 of the proposed development will be completed in the period when post-primary schools are
anticipated to reach their peak enrolment up to 2036. Based on this demographic trend, it may be necessary
for post-primary students to travel outside the 2km catchment area during the initial phases of development.
The South Docks is served by an existing bus route with planned improvements to the public infrastructure
network. It is not considered unusual for post-primary students to travel more than 2 km from their home to
attend a secondary school which caters to their academic requirements.
School Demand Report | December 2020 | 13Future Delivery of Zoned School Sites
The construction of new schools on the zoned school sites within the South Docks will ultimately be delivered
by the Department of Education and Skills. Cork City Council is working closely with the Department in relation
to ensuring that the schools identified in both the South Dock LAP 2008 and the Cork City Development Plan
2015 are progressed in tandem with the future residential development.
Appendix 1 of this report includes correspondence from the Department of Education which outlines the
approach and commitment of the Department to ensure that there will be sufficient schools provided to meet
the needs of the new communities arising from the development of the Cork Docklands and that the
Department is already actively engaging with Cork City Council in relation to the provision of the education
facilities in the Docklands included in the Cork City Development Plan 2022-2028 and the South Docks LAP
(i.e. 2 no. primary schools and 1 no. post primary school – see Appendix 1).
The South Docks LAP indicates that the primary school sites can accommodate up to 32 no. classroom school.
By applying the PTR to the number of classrooms, these 2 sites could accommodate up to 1,664 primary
school students. With the decline in primary school age population, it is considered likely that the 2 zoned sites
will be sufficient to accommodate the future population.
The South Docks LAP 2008 provides some guidance on the timing of delivery of the schools within the
framework of the Plan. The 20 year plan for development of the South Docks has been applied by essentially
starting the program for development in 2020, rather than in 2007 with 2020 being considered Phase 0 to
provide an indication of when schools may be delivered based on the original timeframes in the LAP.
Proposed Phasing of
South Docks LAP Timeframe Ford Phasing
School Delivery
Phase 0 2020-2021
Short Term 1 A – 2007-2010
Phase 1 Year 1 – 3.5 Primary School is
Design Phase
Phase 2 Year 3.5 – 7 Primary School 1 in
1B – 2022 - 2013 construction phase
Phase 3 Year 7 – 10 Primary School 1
Complete
Post-Primary School in
Medium Term 2014 – 2020
Design Phase.
Year 11 – 13 Permission expires at
end of Year 10
Year 14 -20 Falls outside the
timeframe of the
permission
Primary School No. 1
complete
Long Term 2021 – 2027
12 Classroom Post-
Primary School
complete
Primary School No.2 in
design stage if
appropriate
Table 7 Proposed timeframe for delivery of schools in the South Docks
School Demand Report | December 2020 | 14Conclusion
The proposed development is the first phase of the regeneration of the South Docks in Cork City and will rely
on existing school infrastructure within the catchment area. The proposed development has the potential to
generate 203 no. primary school places and 144 no. post-primary school places.
As demonstrated in our assessment, there is capacity within the existing primary schools to accommodate the
initial phases of the proposed development if required. Ideally the primary schools envisioned for the South
Docks will be delivered in line with the programme of development outlined in the South Docks LAP 2008.
There is potential for the proposed primary school sites within the South Docks to accommodate up to 1,664
primary school places. The proposed development is likely to generate 203 no. primary age students over the
10-year phasing of development which is only 12% of the primary student places which can be accommodated
on the zoned sites with the South Docks.
The initial phases of development will coincide with the anticipated peek in post-primary enrolment in 2024.
While there is currently capacity in the existing schools within the catchment area, there may be more demand
for these spaces when Phase 1 of the proposed development is completed. It is estimated that the first phase
of the development will generate 49 students which will need to be accommodated within existing schools both
within and outside the 2 km catchment area. From 2024, post-primary numbers are set to decline until 2036
therefore it is anticipated that the post-primary students can be accommodated within the existing schools until
such time the post-primary school is constructed in the South Docks. It may be beneficial for the Department
of Education to prioritise the construction of the post-primary school given the anticipated peak in enrolment
and the long-term demand within the South Docks.
It is considered that the school demand generated by the proposed development can be accommodated within
existing schools in the short term. It is anticipated that once construction commences in the South Docks that
the delivery of schools in line with timeframe envisioned in the South Docks LAP 2008 which will provide future
students with local schools within walking distance from their homes.
Appendix 1 of this report includes correspondence from the Department of Education which outlines the
approach and commitment of the Department to ensure that there will be sufficient schools provided to meet
the needs of the new communities arising from the development of the Cork Docklands and that the
Department is already actively engaging with Cork City Council in relation to the delivery of new education
facilities in the Docklands.
School Demand Report | December 2020 | 15Appendix 1: Correspondence from the Department of Education
School Demand Report | December 2020 | 16School Demand Report | December 2020 | 17
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