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Science for saving species
Science
for saving species
ISSN 2652-1334

Winter 2020
Issue 16
                              Prioritising
                          action after the
                            2019–20 fires
Fire and
biodiversity
 Post-fire priorities
 for flora, fauna
 and ecological
 communities
 Cultural fire
 Fire and feral
 predators
 Lessons from
 Booderee
 Protecting
 monsoon vine
 thickets
 Desert fire
 Top End small
 mammal declines
 Oliver Costello

IMAGE: JAANA DIELENBERG
Science for saving species
Magazine of the Threatened Species Recovery Hub

    Editorial...

    From the ashes:
    The 2019–20 wildfires and
    biodiversity loss and recovery
    Fire is a complex, important and pervasive ingredient in the ecology of Australia. It destroys life but brings renewal. It can operate
    within or beyond our control. Individual fires, and the historic patterning of fires, can have severe impacts on many threatened
    species and ecological communities. And fire can compound the impacts of many other threats. Professor John Woinarski
    of Charles Darwin University discusses the catastrophic losses of the 2019–20 fires, and how we can move on from mourning
    to action that can limit such future devastation.
                                                                                                                                                                                                     IMAGE: NICOLAS RAKOTOPARE

    Although fire is an inextricable component                                                 Awareness of the catastrophic scale of the                                    Future responses
    of most Australian ecosystems, the 2019–20                                                 environmental loss was seared in community                                    Unfortunately, government, community
    wildfires of eastern and southern Australia                                                perception by images of badly burned koalas,                                  and conservation systems were not well
    were way beyond normal. Catalysed by                                                       the charred corpses of kangaroos and vast                                     prepared for these fires. We need to reduce
    extensive drought and unusually high                                                       blackened landscapes, and by the stories                                      the likelihood of such future fires; ensure
    temperatures, these fires were exceptionally                                               told by those dealing with injured wildlife,                                  that key biodiversity values are better
    extensive, long-lasting and severe. More than                                              or scarred by witnessing such loss of nature.
                                                                                                                                                                             protected in fire planning and suppression;
    12 million hectares were burnt over the period                                             The responses by governments, conservation
                                                                                                                                                                             and be capable of responding even more
    August 2019 to March 2020, across forests,                                                 NGOs, landholders and the Australian and
                                                                                                                                                                             rapidly and cohesively in the aftermath of any
    heathlands and farmlands from south-eastern                                                international public were extraordinary, and
                                                                                                                                                                             future fires. Building such resilience will be
    Queensland to eastern Victoria, on Kangaroo                                                heartening. Much support was mobilised;
                                                                                                                                                                             contingent on the manner in which we deal
    Island and in south-western Australia.                                                     many injured animals were rescued; some
                                                                                                                                                                             with the fundamental underlying cause of
                                                                                               threatened species (such as the Wollemi pine)
                                                                                                                                                                             mega-fires – climate change. Unless global
    Conservation setback                                                                       were expertly protected from imminent fires;
                                                                                                                                                                             emissions are curtailed, it is inexorable that
    These fires killed residents and firefighters,                                             and many agencies undertook emergency
                                                                                               post-fire responses.                                                          the dystopia we witnessed in the 2019–20
    destroyed infrastructure and had severe
                                                                                                                                                                             wildfires will recur, with increasing frequency
    impacts on many regional communities.                                                      These were critical and timely actions, but                                   and extent, and with diminishing chances
    Major conservation values were affected,                                                   there will be a long and arduous road to                                      of environmental recovery.
    including many national parks, World Heritage                                              recovery for many species and ecosystems.
    areas, wetlands of international significance,                                             The on-ground actions will need to be                                         Along with the conservation and research
    and threatened species and ecological                                                      complemented by overhauls of management,                                      programs of many other groups, many of our
    communities. In some cases, the gains made                                                 planning and policy informed by lessons                                       projects were affected by these fires. These
    from years of painstaking conservation effort                                              learned from these fires. To help frame                                       project impacts have since been compounded
    were destroyed or significantly set back.                                                  such a strategic response, the Threatened                                     by the travel restrictions imposed in response
    Most likely, no other event in our lifetimes                                               Species Recovery Hub (with inputs from other                                  to COVID-19: many of us can’t yet access
    has had such a sudden and drastic effect                                                   researchers) rapidly developed a blueprint for                                the fire-affected sites critical for our
    on wildlife conservation in Australia.                                                     recovery of biodiversity – see Further reading.                               research and management.

    ABOVE: Green shoots emerge after an early season burn on the Tiwi Islands.

      Inside the Winter 2020 issue of Science for Saving Species
      Editorial byJohn Woinarski.......................................... 2                   Fire, cats, foxes and land management.................16
      Threatened Species Commissioner’s update....... 4                                        Lessons from long-term monitoring.....................18
      Cultural fire....................................................................... 5   Threatened wattle translocation............................19
      Flora priorities after the fires...................................... 6                 Fire management for monsoon vine thickets..... 20
      Fauna priorities after the fires.................................... 8                   Pirra Warlu (desert fire)...............................................21
      Fire and post-fire impacts on wildlife groups....10                                      Small mammal declines in the Top End................22
      Invertebrate priorities after the fires.....................12                           Pre-fire forest condition influences recovery.....23
      Post-fire threatened species listing........................13                           Profile: Oliver Costello.................................................24
      Threatened woodland trajectories........................14

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The fires also present important research         examples, especially from the Stirling Range         Our challenge is to go beyond mourning that
opportunities. There is much that we need         in south-western Australia, and from Kangaroo        loss, to instead work even harder and more
to learn about immediate and longer-term          Island. But even species with vast ranges            strategically for recovery; to help shape a
impacts and about what recovery actions are       (such as the yellow-bellied glider) were             better future for us and our environments –
most effective. Major knowledge gaps have         substantially affected by these fires,               a future that is more resilient, and less likely
hindered our remedial management responses        leaving large formerly occupied areas now            to experience another such catastrophe.
this time; and we should aim to have              uninhabitable (at least for a time) and
                                                                                                       Further reading
greater preparedness for any next time.           severely fragmenting surviving populations.          https://theconversation.com/a-season-in-hell-
Monitoring is a notable example:                  As a consequence of these wildfires, there           bushfires-push-at-least-20-threatened-species-
notwithstanding many calls to remedy the          will be an urgent need to assess or re-              closer-to-extinction-129533
deficiency, Australia lacks a comprehensive       assess the conservation status of hundreds           https://theconversation.com/after-the-bushfires-
national biodiversity monitoring program.         of species, to give those most fire-affected         we-helped-choose-the-animals-and-plants-in-
                                                                                                       most-need-heres-how-we-did-it-138736
That lack renders it especially difficult to      species more legal protection and a profile for
assess the extent of biodiversity loss due        conservation management. Many threatened             https://www.nespthreatenedspecies.edu.
to these fires and reduces the capacity to                                                             au/_images/Projects/After%20the%20
                                                  species are now far more imperilled, and
                                                                                                       catastrophe%20report_V5.pdf
measure the extent and rate of recovery           many species we formerly considered secure
and the effectiveness of recovery actions.        can no longer be presumed safe. The 2019–20          Further information
Likewise, there is limited distributional         wildfires caused a loss of extraordinary             John Woinarski
information for many species, making it           magnitude to Australian biodiversity.                John.Woinarski@cdu.edu.au
challenging to assess the proportional loss
in fires for many species, or to identify key     MAP: Geospatial and Information Analytics (ERIN), Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment,
strongholds that may have escaped the fire.       May 2020

Australian Government responds
The Australian Government rapidly committed
$50 million to urgent post-fire conservation
actions, with a subsequent $150 million for
ongoing strategic responses. Recognising the
urgent need to assess the impact of these fires
on biodiversity, and that more evidence was
needed to help design and prioritise recovery
actions, the Minister for the Environment
directed $2 million to the hub to undertake a
set of priority fire-related research projects.
These projects include development of
monitoring guidelines; more detailed
assessments of wildlife mortality and of the
impacts of the 2019–20 fires on invertebrates
and frogs; Indigenous involvement in bushfire
recovery; development of conservation
strategies for fire-affected threatened
ecological communities; and many others.
With membership including several hub
researchers, an expert advisory panel was
established by the Australian Government to
assess, at national scale, the national impacts
of the 2019–20 wildfires on biodiversity
and to help guide allocation of substantial
Australian Government funding for urgent and
longer-term recovery management actions.
Assessments coordinated by that panel
have identified 471 plant, 213 invertebrate
and 92 vertebrate species that have been
most severely affected by these fires.
In most cases, more than 50% of the
distributions of these species was burnt; in
many cases over 80% of the distribution was
burnt; and the entire extent of the known
distribution of some species was exposed to
high-intensity fire. It may be that the fires
have caused the extinction of some of these
species, but the evidence is not yet available
to demonstrate such an unwanted outcome.
Many of the most affected species were
highly restricted (narrow range endemics):
there are many such invertebrate and plant

                                                                                                                                                            3
Science for saving species
Magazine of the Threatened Species Recovery Hub

    Rapid action
    to save species                                                                                               The Australian Government’s Threatened
                                                                                                              Species Commissioner Dr Sally Box talking to
                                                                                                           Pat Hodgens (left) and Heidi Groffen (right) from

    after the fires
                                                                                                            Kangaroo Island Land for Wildlife about shelter
                                                                                                                  tunnels for the Kangaroo Island dunnart.

                                                                                                                                 IMAGE: NICOLAS RAKOTOPARE

    The Australian Government’s Threatened Species Commissioner and Chair of the Wildlife and Threatened Species
    Bushfire Recovery Expert Panel Dr Sally Box talks about the support for long-term recovery of species and ecological
    communities devastated by the 2019–20 fires.

    In January, at the height of the fires, the         collaborate and develop shared responses         exclosure and installation of shelter tunnels
    Australian Government appointed a Wildlife          to the emergency.                                to allow the dunnarts to safely move around.
    and Threatened Species Bushfire Recovery            The Australian Government’s initial              Greening Australia has identified native
    Expert Panel, which worked rapidly to identify      $50 million supported quick emergency            seed supply needs and is producing the
    the species and ecological communities              intervention early on and, with the additional   seedlings needed for landscape restoration
    most in need of assistance, and the                 $150 million investment announced in May,        and a sustainable, long-term native plant
    urgent management actions required.                 we are now able to focus on longer-term          and seed sector.
    This was a massive, collaborative task              recovery plans and actions. The Expert
                                                        Panel’s scientific advice on priority species    Taronga Zoo is establishing an insurance
    involving the Australian, state and territory
                                                        and actions has informed the government’s        colony of the northern corroboree frog from
    governments and a wide range of relevant
                                                        investments to date and will continue to         the Fiery Ranges, where 70% of remaining
    experts, including many from the Threatened
                                                        guide our response. The panel’s close            populations were impacted by the bushfires.
    Species Recovery Hub, to collate and analyse
                                                        collaboration with the Threatened Species        A new breeding facility for this species is
    fire extent mapping, species distribution
                                                        Recovery Hub and its bushfire recovery           being established and the first 100 eggs
    data and species traits information.
                                                        research program will continue to be             have been collected from the wild.
    In parallel to this work, wildlife organisations,   vitally important as we move forward.            There are many other stories, and time will
    zoos, local community groups and government
                                                                                                         reveal a clearer picture of the impacts of
    agencies took action on the ground – salvaging      Stories of hope
                                                                                                         the fires and what is needed for our species’
    plant and animal species, providing emergency       There’s great work underway across the
    food drops for native animals, protecting                                                            long-term recovery. But to date, a combined
                                                        country, despite COVID-19 presenting some
    unburnt areas, and controlling feral pests and                                                       and passionate effort has resulted in rapid
                                                        challenges. In the World Heritage-listed Blue
    weeds. The shared goal was and still is to give                                                      assessments and action for species we
                                                        Mountains, work continues to support the
    our precious wildlife, habitats and unique                                                           are most worried about.
                                                        recovery of the brush-tailed rock-wallaby
    places the best possible chance of recovery.        and Wollemi pines, and to return koalas          Further information
    In January and February, the Minister for the       rescued from the fires back to the wild.         Sally Box
    Environment the Hon Sussan Ley MP hosted                                                             ThreatenedSpeciesCommissioner@
                                                        There are signs of hope in even the most
    a series of roundtables with stakeholders           severely burnt landscapes. Kangaroo Island       environment.gov.au
    to inform the Australian Government’s               dunnarts have been sighted in small areas of     Wildlife and Threatened Species Bushfire
    response to the bushfires for the environment.      unburned habitat. Actions to protect these       Recovery Expert Panel
    More than 200 experts from the government,          precious remaining animals include control       http://www.environment.gov.au/biodiversity/
    NGO, industry and business sectors met to           of feral cats, construction of a new fenced      bushfire-recovery/expert-panel

4   Science for saving species #16
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Cultural
          fire:
  Listening to
   and caring
  for Country
      with fire
        RIGHT: Jacob Morris, an emerging cultural fire
   practitioner from the Gumea-Dharrawal clan of the
  Yuin Nation. Jacob was a workshop facilitator at the                                                                                          IMAGE: VERA HONG
Bundanon National Indigenous Fire Workshop in 2018.

  Cultural fire management is the way that Indigenous people have used fire to care for Country for thousands of years, and it
  continues today. The devastation wreaked by the 2019–20 bushfires across millions of hectares was a wake-up call for Australia and
  the world. Oliver Costello from the Firesticks Alliance explains how the fires demonstrated the need to listen to and care for Country.

  For tens of thousands of years our ancestors           These indicators are specific to landscapes,      There are also some landscapes that are
  of this land, Australia’s First Peoples, managed       ecosystems, places, species, vegetation, soils,   suffering from a lack of fire. Fire is important
  Country with fire effectively to reduce                climate and weather conditions. They relate       to stimulate the germination of many plant
  bushfires and improve livelihoods. European            to people’s identity, knowledge, practices,       species and without it some plant populations
  colonisation led to a rapid suppression of             heritage, resources, society, environment,        can age and die without the recruitment
  Indigenous people’s rights and access to land          economy and spiritual beliefs.                    of new plants.
  and resources. In recent decades, land rights,
  native title and Indigenous cultural and natural       Burning for resilience                            Sharing cultural fire knowledge
  resource management have created strong and            Cultural fire management will protect,            Cultural burning can better maintain healthy
  growing opportunities for collaboration and            maintain, heal and enhance ecosystems and         species dynamics, and reduce opportunities
  changes in how science and land management             cultural values, as it has done for thousands     for invasive species to dominate. Cultural
  interact with Indigenous communities.                  of years, while also reducing fuel loads that     fire for ecosystems is a dynamic practice
                                                         help to lessen negative impacts of bushfire in    that can be continued or re-established to
  Cultural values and identity                           multiple ways. Cultural burning often involves    achieve many benefits. These have been
  One of the most significant cultural land              more patchy, frequent and low-intensity fire      well demonstrated through Indigenous-led
  management movements is Indigenous                     regimes, which reduce inappropriate outcomes      programs such as the Firesticks Alliance.
  cultural fire management, knowledge and                of fire for species and habitats. Cultural        The Firesticks Alliance provides leadership,
  practice. Cultural fire management listens             burning may not reduce as much fuel during        advocacy and action to protect and enhance
  to country and draws on Indigenous                     each fire event compared to some hazard           cultural and natural values of people and
  Traditional Ecological Knowledge and                   reduction or back-burning; however, over time,    Country through cultural fire and land
  the fundamental cultural responsibilities              the cumulative effect of cultural burning can     management practices. Firesticks values
  of Indigenous communities. Cultural fire               lead to longer-term fuel reduction and more
                                                                                                           and respects Country, local knowledge
  management is based on people’s cultural               resilient ecosystems and communities.             and the protocols of Elders and ancestors.
  connections and authority to care for Country.
                                                         High-intensity fires have significant immediate   We are committed to providing a supportive
  Fire is important in managing the kinship
                                                         and long-lasting impacts on the presence,         Indigenous-led community of practice
  between people, species and places.
                                                         distribution and abundance of species.            to maintain and share cultural fire
  Fire management practices respond to
                                                         Inappropriate fire regimes can often promote      knowledge and practice on Country.
  cultural values and indicators of the
                                                         dysfunctional ecosystems, contributing to
  Country types (cultural ecosystems).                                                                     Further information
                                                         their longer-term decline and, often, an
                                                                                                           Oliver Costello
  Cultural values and indicators reflect the             accumulation of fuel. This vegetation
                                                                                                           workshops@firesticks.org.au
  cultural and natural features of a community’s         regrowth can lead to more frequent and
  relationships to a particular Country.                 intense fires, due to its type and structure.

  IMAGE: VERA HONG

  Bundanon night fire, National Firesticks Workshop, 2018.
                                                                                                                                                               5
Science for saving species
Magazine of the Threatened Species Recovery Hub                                                                    New shoots start the long road to recovery.

    Plants in
    the ashes:
    Prioritising Australian
    flora after the fires                                                                                                                        IMAGE: ANNE KERLE

    Australia has one of the highest rates of plant endemism of any country globally. After the catastrophic fire season
    of 2019–20, Dr Rachael Gallagher and Professor David Keith are leading two teams to find out which species
    and ecological communities are most in need of immediate recovery.

    During the 2019–20 bushfire season, over                  on-ground actions and legislative protections     Threats affecting fire recovery
    12 million hectares of Australia burned.                  to ensure their survival.                         in plants
    Many thousands of species were affected,                                                                    For many species, the bushfires were an
                                                              A national prioritisation exercise is providing
    and much focus has been on the rescue and                                                                   additional stressor that worsened the effects
                                                              an evidence base for decision-making to
    care of Australia’s animals. Yet Australia is                                                               of other threats affecting plant recruitment,
                                                              inform the work of the Wildlife and Threatened
    home to around 25,000 native plant species,                                                                 growth and survival. In recognition of
                                                              Species Bushfire Recovery Expert Panel chaired
    most of which are endemic and many that                                                                     this, several of the 11 criteria concern the
                                                              by the Threatened Species Commissioner.
    had more than 90% of their range burnt.                                                                     interacting effects on species of threats like
                                                              The prioritisation is based on 11 criteria
    While many Australian plants are adapted                  developed by Dr Tony Auld and colleagues          drought, disease, grazing, weed invasion
    to fire and thrive through resprouting and                within the New South Wales Department of          and changing temperatures. For instance,
    fire-induced seed germination, the fires have             Planning, Infrastructure and Environment to       plants that have lost carbohydrate reserves
    compounded the effects of other threats such              identify species suffering the greatest likely    because of prolonged drought conditions may
    as drought, grazing, disease or flooding, or              impacts. The criteria first ask how much of the   struggle to resprout after fire, particularly
    made many plants more susceptible to those                distribution of each species or community fell    if their storage or regenerative organs have
    threats. This may significantly increase the              within the area burnt by the 2019–20 fires.       been damaged. Pre-fire drought can also slow
    risks of local, and even global, extinction.              For the 19,004 plants so far assessed, up         down reproduction, reducing the size of the
    Australia’s plant communities face similar                to 11,887 likely have some part of their          seed bank available for post-fire recruitment.
    issues and there is an urgent need for                    range burnt, and 76–136 more than 90%             To assess this risk, we coupled plant and
                                                              burnt. These estimates are based on three         ecological community distribution data to
                                     IMAGE: BRETT SUMMERELL   complementary lines of evidence about species’    estimates of the accumulated severity of
                                                              ranges: herbarium occurrence data; modelled       drought in the year before the fire season
                                                              distributions based on climates and soils;        (see Figures A and B). Accumulated drought
                                                              or – for species listed under the EPBC Act –      severity was based on the Standardised
                                                              regulatory maps. Using multiple sources to        Precipitation Index, which measures
                                                              estimate species’ ranges helps to prevent         the variation in precipitation relative
                                                              over- or underestimating where plants occur       to the average.
                                                              in the landscape. Although knowing how            Of the species we examined so far for the
                                                              much of the species range may have been           prioritisation, we considered 176 to be at
                                                              burnt is crucial, it is just part of the puzzle   high risk from pre-fire drought interacting
                                                              for understanding the impacts.                    with the impact of fire.

                                                              LEFT: Boronia imlayensis.
6   Science for saving species #16
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IMAGE: BRETT SUMMERELL

                     Figure A                                            Figure B                                              Figure C
A) Accumulated severity of drought conditions in December 2019 over the previous 12-month period. More negative values correspond to more severe drought;
(B) Classification of areas of significant pre-fire drought conditions used to assess against Criterion A – Interactive effects of fire and drought;
(C) Boronia imlayensis had more than 95% of its range burned amid existing threats from prolonged drought conditions.

The ability of these species, such as the shrub     Cooperation across borders                             IMAGE: ANNE KERLE
Boronia imlayensis, to resprout after the fires     The national prioritisation for plants and TECs
may be seriously compromised by pre-fire            involves cooperation across jurisdictions, with
drought. The Mount Imlay Boronia (Figure C) –       many agency staff from fire-affected states
which is currently not listed as threatened –       and territories providing data and knowledge,
has a highly restricted range, at least 96%         alongside the Australian Government
of which was burnt. Unless its populations          Department of Agriculture, Water and the
recover adequately, this species is now             Environment. For instance, agencies have
at risk of extinction.                              shared and integrated data on plant traits and
Other interacting threats may limit the             fire extent to provide a more comprehensive
capacity of species to recover, such as             picture of impact, while also helping to identify
high fire frequency (Criteria B and K),             key gaps in our knowledge. The process has
browsing and grazing of regenerating                highlighted the need for rapid delivery of fire-
shoots (Criterion C) and the impact of              mapping products and standardised national
diseases, such as myrtle rust and                   data about how plants respond to fire.
Phytophthora root rot, on regenerating              Assessing extinction risk against IUCN Red
plants (Criterion D).                               List criteria for fire-affected plants and
For instance, the Eastern Stirling Range            ecosystems will also require collaboration,          The resprouting and germination currently
                                                    with experts contributing their knowledge            underway may be jeopardised by the cascading
Montane Heath and Thicket Threatened
                                                    and data. We have already prioritised 471            effects of post-fire drought, grazing, weed
Ecological Community (TEC) is currently                                                                  invasion or disease.
listed as Endangered in the EPBC Act and            plant species and 19 TECs for the $12 million
was entirely burnt. Importantly, most of the        Wildlife and Habitat Bushfire Recovery
                                                    Program. Many of these species need on-              A combination of boots on the ground, fingers
TEC had also been burnt 18 months earlier,
                                                    ground research to gather evidence about             on the laptops and minds on the analysis of
leaving little time for adequate recovery.
                                                    population size, threats and decline for listing     data will be crucial to recovering Australian
Further, it is faced with significant risk from
                                                    under the EPBC Act or state legislation.             vegetation for the future.
root rot disease, which seems to have even
greater impacts on plant survival post-fire.        Although ex-situ collection of seed material         Further information
                                                    may be necessary in rare cases, the seed banks       Rachael Gallagher
Ongoing analyses are showing that some              of the affected species should be allowed to         Rachael.gallagher@mq.edu.au
locations in New South Wales and Western            replenish after the fires. This means avoiding
Australia have intervals between fires that are                                                          David Keith
                                                    follow-up fires for the next few years and
likely too short for recovery of the vegetation.                                                         David.keith@unsw.edu.au
                                                    preventing over-harvest of flowers and seed.
Species in these areas are likely to become                                                              Further reading
locally extinct and replaced by species             Given the richness of the Australian flora
                                                                                                         https://www.environment.gov.au/
with short generation times or non-woody            and the vast area of the continent, a
                                                                                                         biodiversity/bushfire-recovery/priority-plants
underground root stalks, unless there               collaborative approach to ecological
are no further fires in the near future.            research has never been more important.

Regenerating cycads on the south coast of New South Wales.
IMAGE: ANNE KERLE
                                                                                                                                                            7
Science for saving species
Magazine of the Threatened Species Recovery Hub

    About three-quarters of the habitat of
    Kangaroo Island’s Endangered glossy
    black-cockatoo population burned
    in the January 2020 bushfires.

    Prioritising action
    for animal species
    after the fires                                                                                                             IMAGE: NICOLAS RAKOTOPARE

     The 2019–20 bushfires burnt over 12 million hectares of south-eastern and south-western Australia, causing abrupt losses
     of biodiversity at a scale never seen before. Over a billion animals were estimated to have died, but the figure is likely much
     higher. The Australian Government’s Wildlife and Threatened Species Bushfire Recovery Expert Panel is guiding the work of
     prioritising species and ecological communities for emergency interventions and determining what those actions should
     be. Hub Deputy Director and Expert Panel member Professor Sarah Legge takes us though the hows and whys of this
     prioritisation, and some of its challenges.

    Conservation scientists and managers have         State, territory and Commonwealth                 been so heavily impacted that they also now
    never experienced anything like these             governments rapidly developed strategic           face extinction risks. We assessed all listed
    wildfires before, and no precedent existed        responses, to which many non-government           species with distributions that overlapped
    for designing and implementing a response.        and community groups aligned.                     with fire by at least 10% and all unlisted
    The crisis elicited extraordinary and immediate                                                     species whose distributions overlapped
                                                      In mid-January, the Threatened Species
    cooperation among governments, NGOs,                                                                with fire by at least 30%. This resulted
                                                      Commissioner convened an Expert Panel
    community groups, universities and carer                                                            in an assessment list of over 220 species.
                                                      to guide the national response to fire-affected
    groups, aiming to reduce post-fire mortality
                                                      species, ecological communities, natural assets   To assess relative impacts across these
    and suffering, and support population recovery.
                                                      and their Indigenous cultural values. The panel   species, we considered three questions:
    BELOW: Between 50 and 80% of the range            produced the first priority list three weeks
                                                                                                        1. How threatened was the species before
    of the Hastings River mouse (Pseudomys oralis)    later, after an assessment of all fire-affected
                                                                                                        the bushfires? Species that already faced a
    was affected by fire.                             vertebrates, nationally listed terrestrial
                                                                                                        high risk of extinction may have been brought
                                                      invertebrates and spiny crayfish (with
                                                                                                        to the brink. As a proxy to identify these
                                                      these two invertebrate groups included
                                                                                                        species, we used threatened species lists
                                                      because information was readily available).
                                                                                                        from Australia’s Environment Protection and
                                                      Expert Panel members, who include hub
                                                                                                        Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999 as well
                                                      members, collaborated with many other
                                                                                                        as the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species.
                                                      experts, Birdlife Australia and staff from the
                                                      Australian Government to develop this list.       2. How much of the species’ distribution
                                                                                                        was burnt? The more of a species’ range
                                                      How to make a priority list of species            that was burnt, the greater the risks. Staff
                                                      In assessing vertebrates and spiny crayfish,      from the Department of Agriculture, Water
                                                      we considered all species, not just those         and the Environment and BirdLife Australia
                                                      already listed as threatened. This was            used national fire maps, and combinations of
                                                      because while the fires have worsened the         distribution models, distribution maps and
                                                      predicament for some threatened species,          observation records to generate figures. The
IMAGE: DOUG BECKERS CC BY-SA 2.0 WIKIMEDIA COMMONS
                                                      others that were previously secure may have       task was especially tricky for fish, which can

8   Science for saving species #16
Science for saving species
be affected by ash and sediment from fires
many kilometres upstream. To account for
this, we considered the incidence of fire in
catchments upstream of each species, as well
as the fire overlap with their distribution.
3. Does the species have physical,
behavioural or other characteristics that
make it more susceptible to impacts during
or after fire? Not all species are affected
by fire in the same way. For example, highly
mobile species like white-throated needletails
are more able to flee a fire front than most
ground-living animals. Wombats sheltering
in deep burrows are more likely to survive
a fire event than long-footed potoroos
sheltering under vegetation.
Animals that survive the fire itself can still                                                                     IMAGE: BENJAMINT444 CC BY-SA 3.0 WIKIMEDIA COMMONS
die in the fire aftermath, from starvation,
                                                       The Endangered Macquarie perch is one of the priority fish species identified as having over 50% of
predation and exposure, and some
                                                       its range affected by fire or post-fire sedimentation events.
characteristics make species more or less
vulnerable to these fates. For example, species
                                                       post-fire habitat degradation by introduced            data for many species is scattered across
with specialised diets like the Kangaroo Island
                                                       herbivores (e.g., the northern corroboree              databases, and is of variable and sometimes
glossy black-cockatoo are more likely to starve
                                                       frog), often need actions to remove pests like         poor quality. A key task will be identifying the
post-fire than less fussy eaters. We gathered
                                                       goats, deer and horses. Fish species with small        impediments to an effective rapid response
information on characteristics that affect
                                                       distributions, like stocky galaxias, which could       so that we can quickly and confidently
the risk of fire and post-fire mortality from
                                                       die from sediment slugs coming down their              respond to future natural disasters.
the literature and experts to rank species
                                                       waterways in the days or weeks after fire,
within taxonomic groups according to                                                                          Assessments were led by Sarah Legge, John Woinarski,
                                                       were collected and brought into captivity. An          Stephen Garnett, Dale Nimmo, Ben Scheele, Mark
their relative susceptibility to fire.
                                                       insurance population of eastern bristlebirds           Lintermans, Nicki Mitchell, Nick Whiterod and Glen
Our assessment identified 119 species                  was flown out of Mallacoota by helicopter as           Ehmke, with contributions from many species experts
(23 reptiles, 16 frogs, 17 birds, 20 mammals,          flames approached the town. For very rare              and state/territory agency representatives. Staff
5 invertebrates, 22 crayfish and 16 fish) as           species that are prone to post-fire predation          from the Department of Agriculture, Water and the
highest priority for management intervention.          (e.g., the western ground parrot), controlling         Environment (especially the Environmental Resources
Species that were highly threatened before             introduced predators becomes critical.                 Information Network (Geospatial and Information
                                                                                                              Analytics Branch), the Protected Species and
the fire, and have distributions that were
                                                       These initial prioritisations can and will             Communities Branch and the Office of the Threatened
substantially burnt, were ranked high
                                                       be further refined and updated, as we                  Species Commissioner) and Expert Panel members
priority regardless of their trait assessment.                                                                also made significant contributions.
                                                       understand more about the variation in fire
But for other species that were either less
                                                       severity across the burnt areas, and as field          Further information
threatened before the fire, and/or whose
                                                       data on population survival begins to come             Sarah Legge
distributions were less impacted by fires,
                                                       in. Hopefully, some species have done better           sarahmarialegge@gmail.com
the trait assessments came into play.
                                                       than expected, and we will understand why,
For example, unlisted species including
                                                       which will help shape our responses in the             Further reading
pilotbirds and red-browed treecreepers
                                                       future. Alternatively, and less happily, further       https://www.environment.gov.au/
were prioritised ahead of the nationally
                                                       information may indicate that some species             biodiversity/bushfire-recovery/priority-
Vulnerable white-throated needletail, partly
                                                       have been more affected than our initial               animals
because the latter has traits that make it
                                                       assessment has indicated.                              https://theconversation.com/after-the-
much less susceptible to fire impacts.
                                                       In the effort to respond rapidly to the bushfires,     bushfires-we-helped-choose-the-animals-
A roadmap for the future                               shortcomings in fundamental data have                  and-plants-in-most-need-heres-how-we-
The assessment of species characteristics              become apparent. For example, compiling a              did-it-138736
also flagged the emergency actions that                national map of burnt areas was difficult work
could help priority species. For example,              and had to draw on several data sources; and
herbivorous species or species sensitive to            both distribution information and monitoring

The Vulnerable three-toed snake-tooth skink (Coeranoscincus reticulatus)
lost 10–30% of its habitat in the 2019–20 fires.                                                                          IMAGE: BERNARD DUPONT CC BY-SA 2.0 FLICKR     9
Science for saving species
Magazine of the Threatened Species Recovery Hub                                              A western grey kangaroo (Kangaroo Island subspecies) on
                                                                                               Kangaroo Island in February 2020. The 2019–20 wildfires have
                                                                                                             severely impacted the wildlife in many regions.

     Fire and post-fire impacts
     on wildlife groups, and priority
     conservation responses                                                                                                                IMAGE: NICOLAS RAKOTOPARE

     The 2019–20 wildfires have severely impacted animals of all major species groups. Here, national experts on mammals,
     birds, reptiles, frogs and freshwater fish and crayfish present some of the key challenges for each group and how these
     will influence management and research priorities in the aftermath of the fires.

     Mammals                                           Specialised resource needs are another               Birds
     Impacts to koalas were very visible in media      vulnerability: the golden-tipped bat roosts
                                                                                                             IMAGE: RON KNIGHT CC BY 2.0 FLICKR
     coverage of the bushfires, but some other         mainly in the domed nests of a few bird
     mammal species were even harder hit, such as      species in the understorey, which are
     the Kangaroo Island dunnart with an estimated     not likely to reappear for several years.
     95% of its known distribution burnt.              Many mammals require tree hollows
                                                       for breeding and denning. Fire reduces
     Some characteristics mark the mammal              the number of hollows, and post-fire
     species most affected. Those with small           regrowth may not provide suitable
     distributional ranges (such as the silver-        hollows for at least 100 years.
     headed antechinus and long-footed potoroo)
                                                       Many, like the smoky mouse, are likely               Mallee emu-wren.
     may readily lose much of their population to
                                                       to be killed by introduced predators after
     single catastrophic events. Even species with
                                                       fire; while others, like broad-toothed rats,         That birds have wings should mean they
     large home ranges, such as spotted-tailed
                                                       need unburnt vegetation, but this may                can readily escape fires. And some do,
     quolls, can be very affected when unburnt
                                                       be degraded by introduced herbivores.                even species that are not strong fliers. Following
     patches are too small for survivors to be able                                                         the fires on Kangaroo Island, a survey team
     to repopulate. Many Australian mammals,           Given these susceptibilities, a variety of
                                                                                                            found extraordinary densities of emu-wrens
     such as greater gliders, also have very low       management responses is needed, depending
                                                                                                            and western whipbirds in tiny pockets of habitat
     reproductive rates, so recovery may not           upon the species and landscape setting.
                                                                                                            spared by the fire, refugees from the scorched
                                                       Control of introduced predators (cats and
     happen before the next large fire.                                                                     woodland. Unfortunately, successful refugees
                                                       foxes) and herbivores will be critical, as
                                                                                                            are the minority given the heat and extent of
      IMAGE: JODY GATES                                will enhancement of habitat, for example,
                                                                                                            last summer’s intense fires. While mobility
                                                       by establishing nest boxes, safeguarding
                                                                                                            helps some birds, the characteristics affecting
                                                       unburnt patches and carefully nurturing
                                                                                                            recovery of species will include the number of
                                                       recovery of burnt vegetation.
                                                                                                            offspring they raise per year, whether they nest
                                                       Professor John Woinarski                             in tree hollows (as there may be a shortage of
                                                       Charles Darwin University                            these), how far young birds disperse (as that
                                                       john.woinarski@cdu.edu.au                            affects how quickly they can fill recovering
                                                       Professor Sarah Legge                                habitat), and the sensitivity of the habitat the
                                                       The Australian National University                   birds need to fire (were plants killed or is
     Kangaroo Island dunnart.                          sarahmarialegge@gmail.com                            fire-damaged vegetation resprouting?).

10   Science for saving species #16
Post-fire research and management will                Frogs                                                  more vulnerable to predators (other fish and
focus on recovery. While in a few places              Australia has around 240 frog species,                 birds) and to increased water temperatures.
marked birds will allow estimates of individual       with most found along the east coast and               After intense rainfall, ash and sediment move
survival, most research will be about the speed       ranges. Although rarely seen, frogs are vital          rapidly, and have been documented causing
and circumstances under which populations             to many ecosystems. The 16 frog species                fish mortality for up to 80 km downstream.
return to their previous densities. How quickly       found to be most impacted by the fires                 Many fish were already suffering reduced
do birds identify recovering habitat as suitable?     occupy diverse habitats: rainforest, snow              populations and distributions from the
What features make it so – habitat structure,         country, woodlands and dry forest.                     prolonged drought. Already threatened
food availability or nesting opportunities?
                                                                                       IMAGE: BEN SCHEELE
                                                                                                             species with any of the following features
Where have the recovering populations come
                                                                                                             have an increased risk from fire impacts:
from – close by or far away? What is necessary
                                                                                                             very restricted distributions; lay eggs on
for recovering habitat – nest hollow erection,
                                                                                                             the base of the stream; depend on insects
predator control or active management of
                                                                                                             falling into the waterways from overhanging
vegetation features? Most management is likely
                                                                                                             vegetation for food; are short-lived; or
to be passive – with the fires an opportunity
                                                                                                             breed only annually.
to assess recovery – but it will provide a
basis for the inevitable next time.                                                                          Most threatened fish cannot simply
                                                                                                             move away from fire-affected areas,
Professor Stephen Garnett
                                                                                                             so monitoring the impacts of fires and
Charles Darwin University                             A northern corroboree frog on recently burnt
                                                                                                             recovery of populations and habitat is
stephen.garnett@cdu.edu.au                            sphagnum moss.
                                                                                                             critical. No knowledge exists of captive-
                                                      The most severely impacted frog species share          breeding requirements for most fish
Reptiles
                                                      two key characteristics. First, all but one was        “rescued” during fires. Such investigation
The Kaputar skink occurs across 11,000
                                                      already listed as threatened (IUCN Red List) –          into breeding requirements will be
hectares of the Nandewar Ranges of New
                                                      with disease, habitat loss and climate change          essential to post-fire recovery.
South Wales, and nowhere else. As the ranges
                                                      all drivers of decline. Due to their pre-existing
burned, destroying more than 60% of its                                                                      Associate Professor Mark Lintermans
                                                      small population size, any reduction in survival
known habitat, fears grew for it. Likewise for                                                               University of Canberra
                                                      is likely to reduce population viability. Second
Kate’s leaf tail gecko, known only from a few                                                                mark.lintermans@canberra.edu.au
                                                      was small ranges. For example, several of the
sites in northern New South Wales, all of which
                                                      mountain frogs (genus Philoria) are restricted         Freshwater crayfish
burned. The Blue Mountains water skink drew
                                                      to remnant rainforest patches on mountain
attention because populations were already
                                                      tops. For these species, the fires are likely to
in marked decline before the fires and the
                                                      have affected a high proportion of their range.
fires would further exacerbate this.
                                                      We now have an opportunity to study frog
                                                      responses to fire and close gaps in our
                                                      knowledge. Also integral to management
                                                      will be resolving taxonomic uncertainty.
                                                      For example, several of the assessed species
                                                      are thought to contain populations that
                                                                                                                                        IMAGE: ROB MCCORMACK
                                                      may be separate species.
                                                                                                             The undescribed but already highly threatened
                                                      Dr Ben Scheele                                         arte spiny crayfish (Euastacus sp.1).
                                                      The Australian National University
             IMAGE: SARSHAG7 CC BY SA 4.0 WIKIMEDIA   ben.scheele@anu.edu.au                                 Freshwater crayfish are inconspicuous
                                                                                                             casualties of the bushfires. Their aquatic
The Endangered Blue Mountains water skink,
Eulamprus leuraensis.                                 Freshwater fish                                        environments and burrows are deceptively
                                                                                                             unsafe; post-fire impacts can be severe
The reptiles considered most likely to be nearing                                                            for days, months and even years. As with
extinction and requiring urgent management                                                                   freshwater fish, rainfall events soon after fire
intervention due to the fires are often, like                                                                can be perilous. Additionally, many freshwater
these three, narrowly distributed and, in many                                                               crayfish, including those from the Euastacus
cases, already imperilled. However, fire does not                                                            genus of spiny crayfish, are already threatened
affect all species equally. Some can survive fires,                                                          and possess distinctive traits – small home
for instance, smaller lizards sheltering in tiny                                                             ranges, limited dispersal, slow growth and low
crevices, while species occurring in vegetation                                                              egg production – that make them inherently
types that burn more often probably have                                                   IMAGE: H. ALLAN   ill-equipped to recover. Twenty-two Euastacus
adaptations to fire. In the immediate and more                                                               species (almost 40% of all known members
                                                      Stocky galaxias, one of the fish species rescued
barren post-fire landscape, species that generally                                                           of the genus) are considered to need urgent
                                                      during the fires.
use the shelter of leaf litter or vegetation are                                                             management intervention following the
                                                      Freshwater fish are largely protected from
likely to be at greater risk from predators, while                                                           bushfires. This includes gathering knowledge
                                                      flames and radiant heat, although in very
reptiles that dwell under rocks or in burrows                                                                about ranges, identifying remnant populations
                                                      small, shallow streams they can be impacted.
might be better able to persist. Interventions                                                               and assessing the feasibility of conservation
                                                      However, fish are severely affected by post-fire
to stave off extinction for reptiles post-fire will                                                          translocations. Without such actions, many
                                                      rainfall. Fire removes vegetative ground cover
vary depending on the species, but often include                                                             spiny crayfish species will be pushed closer
                                                      so that subsequent rainfall can wash ash and
control of invasive predators and herbivores.                                                                to extinction, and some may be lost.
                                                      sediment into streams. This clogs fish gills
Dr Dale Nimmo                                         and smothers food, spawning and refuge sites,          Dr Nick Whiterod
Charles Sturt University                              and can rapidly fill pools. Combined with the          Aquasave-Nature Glenelg Trust
dnimmo@csu.edu.au                                     loss of overhanging vegetation this leaves fish        nick.whiterod@aquasave.com.au

                                                                                                                                                                11
Magazine of the Threatened Species Recovery Hub

          The little
             things
        count too:
        Prioritising
           recovery
         efforts for
      fire-affected
     invertebrates                                      Green carpenter bee.                                                                 IMAGE: ROBERT WHYTE

     Professor John Woinarski of Charles Darwin University discusses the importance of averting extinctions of less charismatic animals.

     Much media reporting on the impacts of            few publicly accessible distributional records.      plant species in Western Australia’s Stirling
     the 2019–20 fires on wildlife focused on          Little or no monitoring information exists for       Range, all of which were consumed by the fires.
     searing images of burnt koalas and kangaroos.     most invertebrate species, so pre-fire baseline
                                                                                                            Our priority list is likely to be a vast
     These images brought home to the community        abundance and trends are mostly unknown.
                                                                                                            underestimate. Building on this initial
     the loss of biodiversity and galvanised the       Also, for many species little is known about
                                                                                                            assessment, the Threatened Species Recovery
     response of concerned governments, but the        ecological traits and life histories and how
                                                                                                            Hub is undertaking a more comprehensive
     impacts were far more pervasive than just         these would influence susceptibility to fire.
                                                                                                            analysis of fire-affected invertebrates. This
     on those animals most familiar to us.
                                                       Furthermore, many invertebrates lead                 project will also help to identify those species
     Attracting far less attention was the impact      complicated lives, and even a single species         that should now be listed as threatened; and
     of these fires on invertebrates. However, if      can be affected by fire very differently at          to prioritise management responses to aid
     extinctions occurred due to these fires, it was   different life stages. For example, a fire           recovery of the most-affected species.
     most likely to have happened to invertebrate      may be inconsequential to a cicada if at
                                                                                                            Invertebrates do not have a high profile in our
     species. Mostly this is because there are so      the time of the fire most of its population
                                                                                                            community, and some may see little point in
     many invertebrate species (about 320,000          was in underground life stages.
                                                                                                            worrying about losses of obscure invertebrate
     in Australia, about 1000 times the number
                                                       The path to recovery                                 species. But losses of any species diminish our
     of Australian mammal species), and many
                                                                                                            nature; and the legal and policy framework
     of these have very small ranges, readily          Notwithstanding these challenges, we
                                                       developed a list of nearly 200 invertebrate          in which we live provides clear recognition
     encompassed by a single fire.
                                                       species for which the available information          of the need to try to prevent extinction.
     Difficulties of the poorly known                  suggests severe fire impacts. Almost all of these    Furthermore, invertebrates play critical roles
     With contributions from many experts,             species have had more than 50% of their range        in ecological function and many of these roles,
     the Australian Government’s expert advisory       burnt; many have had more than 80% burnt;            such as pollination, may be necessary for the
     panel coordinated an assessment to identify       and some have had all of their range burnt.          recovery of ecosystems after fire. We should
     priority fire-affected invertebrate species                                                            be concerned about the fate of little things.
                                                       The list of fire-affected invertebrates includes a
     most in need of remedial conservation                                                                  Further reading
                                                       very wide variety of species, including spiders,
     management. This proved a particularly                                                                 https://www.environment.gov.au/
                                                       land snails, dragonflies, beetles, grasshoppers,
     challenging exercise because limited relevant                                                          biodiversity/bushfire-recovery/priority-
                                                       moths and butterflies. Most of these species
     information is available to inform assessments.                                                        invertebrates
                                                       have very small distributions, unhappily
     Many Australian invertebrate species have         coinciding with these fires. One such example        Further information
     not yet been formally described. Even when        is the Banksia montana mealybug, a tiny scale        John Woinarksi
     a species has been described there are often      insect that existed only in a few bushes of one      John.Woinarski@cdu.edu.au

12   Science for saving species #16
IMAGE: JJ HARRISON CC BY-SA 4.0 WIKIMEDIA COMMONS                                                                      Fire consumed over half the habitat
                                                                                                                           of the only bird species endemic to
                                                                                                                           New South Wales, the rock warbler.

     Protecting persistence:
     Listing species after the fires
     Professor Stephen Garnett of Charles Darwin University walks us through how listing works to afford legal protection
     to species newly at risk of extinction.

     Such was the scale of the 2019–20 fires that          Other IUCN criteria are for species with small   unprecedented conflagrations of heavy fuel
     many species thought secure suddenly lost             ranges (occupying
Magazine of the Threatened Species Recovery Hub                                                  IMAGE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, WATER AND THE ENVIRONMENT

                                                                                                             Box gum grassy woodland on the private ‘Gillinghall’
                                                                                                                    property near Wellington, New South Wales.

     Post-fire recovery
     of Australia’s
     threatened woodlands:
     Avoiding uncharted trajectories
     The 2019–20 bushfires burnt some of Australia’s most threatened woodland communities. Researchers from The University of
     Melbourne have been building a State and Transition Model based on expert knowledge to help inform recovery planning for
     Australia’s threatened woodland communities. Here, Dr Megan Good and Dr Libby Rumpff demonstrate how their framework
     could inform post-fire monitoring and management to avoid negative outcomes for threatened woodland ecosystems.

     Threatened woodland communities                   Post-fire regional analysis has so far                 Experts identified a series of common
     devastated                                        highlighted at least eight woodland                    “states” of woodland condition found
     Australian woodlands occupy 12% of the            communities as priorities for recovery                 across southern Australia, as well as both
     continent (91.5 million ha) and have declined     action in at least one Natural Resorce                 positive drivers and threats that can push
     more than any other major vegetation group        Management region.                                     the condition state of woodlands in different
     since European occupation – currently over 30                                                            directions. Degraded states are more
     woodland communities are listed as threatened     Recovery planning for woodlands                        common, and without intervention negative
     under the Environment Protection and              There are many threatened woodland                     transitions (towards degraded states) are
     Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999 (EPBC Act).    communities, but few have recovery plans to            more likely than positive transitions (towards
                                                       guide management, although other simpler               better condition states). This highlights
     The catastrophic bushfires of the 2019–20         documentation such as a Conservation Advice            the importance of preventative threat
     summer significantly impacted almost half         is published at the time of listing. Our project       management in these woodland systems.
     of these woodland communities and affected        began in 2017, with the aim of determining
     their component plants and animals                general principles to increase the information         Pre-fire condition and post-fire
     over thousands of hectares.                       available to support fast and effective recovery       trajectories
                                                       planning and other management interventions            We know that many vegetation communities
IMAGE: MEGAN GOOD
                                                       and planning. To this end, we have been                will recover well from fire, and some need fire
                                                       working with woodland experts from across              to maintain ecosystem health and biodiversity.
                                                       southern Australia to synthesise knowledge             However, listed threatened communities have
                                                       from a broad range of eucalypt woodlands.              other pre-existing and ongoing threats that can
                                                                                                              reduce their resilience to fire, such as severe
                                                       At the heart of this project is a State
                                                                                                              drought, fragmentation, soil disturbance,
                                                       and Transition Model (STM). STMs help
                                                                                                              grazing and invasive species. Woodland
                                                       conservation managers better understand
                                                                                                              communities facing multiple post-fire threats
                                                       how woodlands function and respond to
                                                                                                              will almost certainly need assistance to
                                                       management actions. Managers can use
                                                                                                              recover through management interventions.
                                                       them to decide on the start and end points
                                                       for restoration, identify the key threats to           Understanding the pre-fire condition of
                                                       recovery, and explore which interventions              a burnt woodland can tell us a lot about
                                                       might best target those threats.                       the probable post-fire trajectory.

                                                       LEFT: Research assistant on the “Woodland recovery planning” project Freja Butler
14   Science for saving species #16                    in the field north-east of Shepparton, on land of the Taungurung people.
Landscape context and fragmentation are            when our starting points and management                                                        Figure 1A
    similarly important, as they might indicate        interventions differ. Where resources are
    the abundance of native or weedy species           limited, we can use this framework to
    that are likely to act as a seed source for        prioritise effort and investment.
    regenerating woodlands. Small patches of
    woodland surrounded by cropping or sown            Decisions! Decisions!
    pastures will have different requirements for      After these unprecedented fires, management
    post-fire management than larger patches,          decisions should be made quickly with
    or patches surrounded by native species.           whatever information is available. Ongoing
    For example, the Critically Endangered             monitoring is also critical to ensure that
    Lowland Grassy Woodland in the South East          negative trajectories are identified early,
    Corner Bioregion, which has 30–50% of its          while we can still intervene.
    distribution in fire-affected areas, is one of     A major aim of this project was to generalise
    Australia’s most at-risk ecological communities    and transfer understanding from one system
    following the fires. Pre-fire condition would      to another to aid effective conservation
    have varied across the burnt area, and this
                                                       management, without losing critical aspects
    makes a difference. For instance, some of that
                                                       of what defines each distinct woodland type.
    land may have been in poor condition, like
                                                       Experts helped to construct a generalised
    grazed pasture (“Simplified 4” state in our
                                                       model to speed up the decision-making
    model – see Figure 1). The general advice from
                                                       process about what works best and where,
    our expert model, if the aim were to shift to an
                                                       and for the examples provided above, our
    improved condition state (e.g. “Simplified 1” –
                                                       recommendations align well with and
    like a high-quality roadside reserve) would
                                                       supplement the official conservation advice
    be to remove stock, actively control weeds,
                                                       (EPBC Act 1999) for listed woodlands.
    and replant trees and shrubs or encourage
                                                       This demonstrates the value of providing
    and protect any passive tree recruitment.
                                                       structured guidance for managing ongoing
    Indeed, a fire may provide an opportunity to
                                                       threats and large-scale disturbances
    improve the condition of the site by removing
    weeds, but only if active management is            such as fires as we continue to work
    implemented before weeds recolonise.               towards woodland recovery.
                                                       Acknowledgement
    In contrast, some of the area might have been      This article was prepared with contributions from                                              Figure 1B
    in a better condition state, like a roadside       Mark Bourne and Matthew White of the Australian
    reserve with a relatively intact understorey       Government Department of Agriculture, Water and
    (“Simplified 2”). In general, it is much easier    the Environment.
    to encourage a return to the pre-fire state        This work is based on an expert elicitation project
    than to increase the condition of that state,      led by Hannah Fraser with assistance from Elliot
    but active management is still required.           Gould and Peter Vesk. The woodland experts
    Protecting a regenerating understorey would        consulted for this project were: Matt Appleby,
    be wise. In this case, our general model           Mark Bourne, David Duncan, Carl Gosper,
    suggests removing stock and managing               Chris Jones, Rebecca Jordan, Suzanne Prober,
    grazing pressure (closing water holes),            Stephanie Pulsford, Anna Richards, Dan Rogers,
                                                       Steve Sinclair, Ayesha Tulloch and John Wright.
    and proactive weed management.
    Here, we considered two pre-fire condition         Further information
    states of a single woodland community.             Megan Good
    A decision tree, like those developed in           goodm@unimelb.edu.au
    our project (Figures 1A and 1B), can               Libby Rumpff
    clarify which outcomes we might expect             lrumpff@unimelb.edu.au

IMAGE: LIBBY RUMPFF                                              The best remnants of many threatened
                                                                     woodlands occur in road corridors.

                                                                                                             Figure 1. Example decision trees extracted from our
                                                                                                             general State and Transition Models for southern
                                                                                                             Australian woodlands. These can be used to guide
                                                                                                             management decisions for woodlands in different
                                                                                                             pre-fire condition states. Figure 1A shows the types
                                                                                                             of decisions that might guide the recovery of a
                                                                                                             woodland in a grazed pasture state (Simplified 4)
                                                                                                             towards an improved state (Simplified 1). In contrast,
                                                                                                             Figure 1B shows how a relatively high-quality site
                                                                                                             could be managed.                                      15
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