Seafood Strategic Outlook - Spring 2016 - Fish as Food: Seafish
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Seafood Strategic Outlook
Spring 2016
Fish as Food:
An initial review of developments, implications
and practical responses from industry and Seafish
Author: Dr Angus Garrett
This document combines data, opinions and conjecture and is a position paper at the time of press. It is important to bear in mind that evidence today might suggest trends that turn out to be very different in the longer-term.
Contents
1. Introduction and requirement ....................................................................................................... 2
2. UK seafood industry and protein consumption ............................................................... 3
2.1 Consumer landscape ................................................................................................................................... 4
UK consumer
Consumer attitudes and factors driving purchasing behaviours
2.2 Protein and product landscape ............................................................................................................... 5
Key proteins
Product landscape
2.3 Outlets ............................................................................................................................................................... 9
Retail
Food service
2.4 Framing seafood consumption risks (definition and dimensions) ........................................... 10
2.5 Supporting consumption in the UK seafood and wider protein industry .............................. 12
3. Drivers and risk developments affecting seafood ..........................................................13
consumption – the long view
3.1 Food security ................................................................................................................................................. 13
3.2 Climate change ............................................................................................................................................ 14
4. UK seafood consumption - recent and anticipated ..................................................... 15
developments, impacts and response
4.1 Consumers ...................................................................................................................................................... 15
4.2 Protein .............................................................................................................................................................. 17
4.3 Products ........................................................................................................................................................... 18
4.4 Outlets ...............................................................................................................................................................19
4.5 Example impacts and response................................................................................................................ 21
5. UK seafood consumption – impacts and response ..................................................... 24
to longer term developments
Bibliography .........................................................................................................................................................26
Appendices
Appendix 1 – Locating fish as food in seafood risk landscape .......................................28
Appendix 2 – Consultees ............................................................................................................................29
Appendix 3 – UK seafood industry .................................................................................................... 30
– main systems, functions and activities
1Fish as Food: An initial review of developments, implications and practical responses from industry and Seafish
1. Introduction and
requirement
This report is focussed on the UK consumption This report aims to support the UK seafood
of seafood products. It considers the major industry in understanding:
industry impacts arising from key drivers of UK
consumption and sets out major areas where • The major characteristics of UK seafood
industry and Seafish response may be required. consumption.
The Seafish mission is to secure a profitable, • The new and emerging developments
sustainable, and socially responsible future for expected to impact on this consumption.
the UK seafood industry. An important underlying
• Industry impacts (positive and negative) likely
function for Seafish in achieving this mission is to
to arise from these developments.
help protect the industry in the face of consumer
and market-related risks and challenges. • Action industry (and Seafish) can take in
response.
Risk developments in the macro trade landscape
can present longer-term, strategic challenges This exercise, conducted in 2015, involved desk
for the industry (see Appendix 1). Reflecting on research and consultation with Seafish staff and
these developments in 2015, the Seafish Board industry operators (see Appendix 2).
decided “Where is seafood consumption heading,
and what can be done to ensure stability - or The review has limitations. The scope of
even growth - in demand? How can seafood consultation is not exhaustive. In addition, the
survive the pressure from other proteins?” This review does not consider alternative future
review is an important part of responding to this pathways (scenarios), but is based on ‘business
need. as usual’ projections.
22. UK seafood industry and landed/farmed in the UK; UK processors of
fish; and the downstream supply chain in the
protein consumption UK of all of the former including food service
companies, retailers and exporters.
This chapter provides a representation of the
seafood industry landscape and the major UK • An international system – defined as a system
product categories. This representation frames reliant on internationally sourced material
the investigation, discussion and agreement on (material caught from stocks in the North
risk developments, impacts and responses. Atlantic and elsewhere landed outside the UK,
material farmed outside the UK). Within the
The UK seafood industry, being reliant on wild ‘international system’, the key UK actors are:
capture and aquaculture produced raw material, agents and merchants in the UK importing
is diverse, complex and dynamic. The seafood fish and shellfish that is caught, landed or
industry is considered here to operate as many farmed and possibly processed outside of the
subsystems (regional, sectoral), of varying UK; UK processors of imported fish; and the
degrees of interdependence, nested within one downstream supply chain in the UK of all of
overarching global system. the former including food service companies,
retailers and re-exporters.
In the global context, from a UK perspective,
there are at least two major seafood systems It is notable that from a UK perspective, imported
that, although overlapping, have distinct seafood material is largely for UK consumption,
characteristics: whilst material originating in the UK is generally
exported for overseas consumption. The UK
• A domestic system – defined as a system consumer maintains a robust preference for
reliant on domestically sourced material salmonids (farmed salmon), whitefish (cod,
(material caught from stocks in North haddock and Alaska pollock), pelagics (tunas)
Atlantic/UK waters and landed in the UK, and shellfish (cold-water prawn and farmed
material farmed in the UK). Within the warm-water prawn). Meanwhile, UK landings
‘domestic system’, the key UK actors are: volumes are dominated by mackerel and herring
producers (farmers/vessels), agents and (pelagics), Nephrops (shellfish) and cod and
merchants in the UK handling material haddock (whitefish).
INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM
- non-UK
Fish as Food coverage
INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM
- UK-related
Figure 2.1 Components of the UK international and domestic systems DOMESTIC SYSTEM
and how they are interrelated (Fish as Food coverage highlighted) - UK-related
3Fish as Food: An initial review of developments, implications and practical responses from industry and Seafish
2.1 Consumer landscape Disposable income is a measure of households’
ability to increase spending without reducing
2.1.1 UK consumer savings or increasing borrowing. Any shortfall
between average levels of disposable income
In 2014, the population of the UK was estimated to and expenditure for the UK household illustrates
be 64.5 million. Table 2.1 provides population age a ‘squeeze’ in household finances.
bands and shows the ‘outer envelope’ in scoping
the number of potential seafood consumers. Within these headline descriptions of the UK
consumer, there are consumer groups based
Around two thirds of the UK population are on life stage, age group, occupation group etc.
working age. This amounts to around 41 million Specific consumer segments for seafood are
people. Around 11 million have reached retirement identified in section 2.2.3.
age.
Table 2.1 Population summary
Life stage Population group Age group Typical consumer groups 2014 %
Non-working age 0-15 12,058,689 19%
Striving
16-25 Limited budget 8,327,460 13%
26-30 Students/young professionals 4,336,002 7%
Thriving Working age 31-40 Busy young families 8,282,437 13%
41-50 Older, more affluent, families 9,246,943 14%
51-64 Older families 10,722,318 17%
Surviving
Non-working age 65 plus Elderly people 11,131,805 17%
TOTAL 64,596,800 100%
(Source: ONS)
Amongst the working age population, 78% were 2.1.2 Consumer attitudes and factors
economically active (either in work, seeking or driving purchasing behaviours.
available for work). The remaining 22% were
inactive due to study, looking after family, Consumer attitudes, and more specifically the
sickness/disability, not needing to work etc. factors driving their purchasing behaviours, are
complex and interconnected. From a Seafish
Average disposable income for all households in perspective, attitudes can be simplified and
2014 was £30,716. explored as ‘concentric circles of concern’
Average total household expenditure in 2014 was (noting that the boundaries are fluid and may
£27,627. The five highest categories of spend were: vary significantly). See fig 2.2.
• Transport (£3,890)
• Housing (net), fuel and power (£3,780)
• Recreation and culture (£3,578)
• Food and non-alcoholic drink (£3,057)
• Restaurants and hotels (£2,210)
An average 11.1% of all UK household 2014 spend
went on food (15.7% for lowest 20% of household
income). Figure 2.2 Concentric circles of concern
4At the centre of the circle is ‘Me and my family’: 2.2 Protein and product landscape
where consumers’ primary concern is the health
and welfare of themselves and their children. 2.2.1 Key proteins
Only once this need is satisfied, do consumers
begin to widen their ‘circle of concern’. Seafood sits within a broad protein landscape
that contains a number of substitute proteins.
Other people (and animals) are of next concern This landscape includes the following protein
(mid-circle). This is where we move beyond ‘the categories:
garden gate’ into beginning to be concerned
about health and safety of other people, the way • Fish (whitefish, pelagic, shellfish, salmon, exotic
animals are treated and issues of fair-trade begin fish)
to play.
• White meat (chicken, turkey, gamebirds etc)
Finally, the outer circle is that of the environment
• Red meat (pork, lamb, beef, veal, etc)
– where once people are satisfied that all
humankind is being fairly treated then consumers • Meat substitutes (mycoproteins e.g. Quorn etc,
concerns move on to the environment (trees, plant based proteins e.g. grains, pulses, nuts,
landscapes, oceans). seeds etc, and insect proteins)
Across these circles, economic, social and With each protein category comes a distinct
environmental factors influence consumer set of attributes that provide advantages and
behaviours. At one end, economic factors play a disadvantages in the eyes of the consumer. These
dominant influence in ‘Me and my family’, whilst can drive consumption levels, but also where
further out social, and then environmental, factors products are consumed (in-home or out-of-
have an important influence. Factors include: home).
• Economic: • Price – fish is often relatively more expensive
than other proteins.
◦◦ Price
• Quality – fish can show greater variation than
◦◦ Quality (freshness, taste, etc)
other proteins in freshness, taste etc.
• Social:
• Convenience – compared to other proteins,
◦◦ Convenience (time, versatility, norms etc) fish may offer a more limited product format
and be less versatile (the UK consumer can be
◦◦ Nutrition ‘scared of seafood’).
◦◦ Welfare (people, animals) • Nutrition – fish has a number of health benefits
relative to, say, red meat.
• Environmental:
• Environment – fish credentials (e.g.
◦◦ Resources sustainability and welfare) can be seen as more
Consumer interest in food ranges from a complex/uncertain compared to land based
functional concern (e.g. food as fuel), to seeking proteins.
a convenience (e.g. quick meal/protein), or to a The relative quantities of fish and selected
particular emotional and pleasurable experience white and red meats purchased for in-home
(customised for titillation, “you deserve it” etc. consumption by UK households is shown in
- a special occasion for example, or around fig 2.3.
intrinsic attributes – what and where food
comes from etc).
5Fish as Food: An initial review of developments, implications and practical responses from industry and Seafish
Quantity of selected meat proteins purchased by UK households (in home) 1974 - 2013
(average per person per week)
345
295
Quantity (g)
245
195
145
95
2000
2006
2009
2008
2020
2007
2003-04
2005-06
2004-05
2002-03
2001-02
2010
1990
1980
2014
1994
2016
2019
1984
1996
1999
2018
1986
1989
1998
2015
2013
2012
1988
1974
1995
1993
2017
1992
1976
1979
1985
1997
1983
1982
1978
1987
1975
1977
2011
1991
1981
Beef (eaten in) Poultry (eaten in) Pork (eaten in) Fish (eaten in) Lamb (eaten in)
Figure 2.3 Quantity of selected meat proteins for in-home consumption (Source: Defra)
2.2.2 Product landscape to support customised and kit/component
solutions. At the other end of the spectrum,
Within the protein landscape, products available products that involve significant transformation
for direct consumption in the UK, serve specific of the original protein, can support off-the-shelf
consumer interests. In serving these interests, solutions.
proteins are processed to provide convenience
(incl. time saving) for those storing/preparing/ Primary products are relatively simple in
cooking the product (chefs or the consumer). comparison to the more sophisticated,
Products offer a spectrum of solutions to the secondary and particularly tertiary, products.
chef or consumer: Greater product variation can be expected
with the latter and in minor/specialised primary
• Customised solutions (meeting a special/ products.
novel requirement e.g. special occasion)
Primary processed material is in the main
• Kit/component solutions (meeting a considered a fresh product (chilled never
convenience requirement e.g. quick meal/ frozen, including live animal in the case of
protein) fish). Secondary processed products are
• Off-the-shelf solutions (meeting a general mainly frozen (including refreshed product)
‘food as fuel’ requirement e.g. meals) and ambient products (including prepared &
preserved). Tertiary or composite products
At one end of the spectrum, products provide (where protein is one of a number of ingredients
basic proteins made available in a simple format, in the final product) could be fresh or frozen.
6Table 2.2 Types of Seafood products
Extent of processing
Product Format None > Considerable
Live Primary Secondary Tertiary
Fresh Chilled never frozen x x x
Refresh - chilled previously frozen x x
Frozen
Frozen x x
Ambient Prepared and preseved x
In general, seafood products destined for the UK to produce seafood products). Variation in
market can be briefly characterised as: the level of control, ranging from vertically
integrated chains to market based supply.
• UK market products: A diverse set of products,
ranging from sale of live fish to sophisticated • Major supplying regions: Origin and main
added value products that match consumer producing countries being both UK and
interests. international.
• Species and chain: A diverse range of species, Table 2.3 shows some typical product examples
with product supply chains ranging from short in fish, white and red meat.
to long (reflecting species but also the time
required to cook/consume versus time required
Table 2.3 Example products in fish, white and red meat sectors
Primary Secondary Tertiary
Curry
Whole Fishermen’s pie
Crabsticks
Loins Kedgeree
Fish balls
Fillets - skin on Salmon en croute
Fish paste
Fish
Fillets - skinless Seafood cocktail
Roe
Portions - skinless Seafood pasta
Taramasalata
Meat in shell Szechuan prawns with vegetables
Tuna pate
Meat Spring rolls
Prepared pre-school meals (Fish as Food: An initial review of developments, implications and practical responses from industry and Seafish
Table 2.3 Example products in fish, white and red meat sectors (Cont.)
Primary Secondary Tertiary
Lamb curry
Neck cutlets
Lamb kheema
Breast
Lamb hot pot with potatoes
Leg
Irish stew
Lamb
Loin chops Donor kebabs
Lancashire hot pot
Mince Shish kebab
Meat samosas
Neck fillet
Moussaka
Shoulder
Spring rolls
Stewing lamb
Prepared pre-school meals (2.3 Outlets Convenience outlets tend to offer a more limited
range of convenience products. These include
Consumers are exposed to products through the likes of Lidl, Aldi and Iceland and the metro
a wide range of outlets. Outlets can support outlets of the major multiple retailers.
general mainstream consumption, offer
convenience or serve specialised interests. Outlets that serve specialist interests include
Outlets can be broadly categorised as retail fishmongers, delicatessens and fish counters
(in-home consumption) and food service (out- within multiple retailers. Ethnic supermarkets, like
of-home consumption). Food service can be Wing Yip and Seewoo, also serve niche interests.
considered the avant-garde of the retail sector,
developing product innovations (providing 2.3.2 Food service
seafood solutions for unsure consumers and
generating awareness of novel products) that Within food service outlets that support general
are then diffused into more general mainstream mainstream consumption (meals) cover the
food service and retail outlets. See figure 2.4 non-profit sector and the profit sector. Non-
and table 2.5. profit outlets include schools, colleges, hospitals,
prisons, etc. For profit outlets include hotel
2.3.1 Retail restaurants, bistros, gastro pubs etc.
Within retail, outlets that support general Convenience outlets tend to offer a more limited
mainstream consumption include the major range of convenience meals and snacks. These
multiples. These include M&S, Waitrose, Tesco, include the likes of ‘fast casual’ and ‘quick
Sainsbury, Asda, Morrison’s and Co-op (with service’ outlets.
Aldi and Lidl now growing their mainstream
Food service outlets that serve specialist
market share).
interests include ethnic and other specialist
restaurants.
Protein Outlets Consumer interest
Fish
Whitefish, Mainstream Product solution
pelegic, Food service: Schools,
shellfish, colleges, etc. hotels, General
exotics, restaurants
salmon Off-the-shelf • Time poor, cash rich/poor
Retail: Multiple retailers
• Prepared meals • Meal requirement
White • Prepared products
meat
Chicken Convenience
etc. Food service: Fast, Convenient
casual, quick service Kit/component
• Time poor, cash rich/poor
Red Retail: Metro outlets • Prepared products • Quick meal/protien
meat convenience stores requirement
• Primary products
Pork,
lamb,
beef
Specialist Customised Particular
Food service: Ethnic and • Bespoke meals • Time rich, cash rich
Meat specialist restaurants • Primary products • Occasional requirement
subs. Retail: Ethnic supermarkets,
fishmongers etc.
Figure 2.4 Current UK seafood and protein landscape
from consumers to products and outlets.
9Fish as Food: An initial review of developments, implications and practical responses from industry and Seafish
Table 2.5 Key Characteristics of whitefish, pelagic, shellfish and exotic fish
Major supplying regions Species and chain UK market products
Cod, haddock, whiting, monkfish,
Whitefish products for the UK
sole, plaice, hake, Alaska Pollock.
UK domestic sources include UK market include domestic sourced
Whitefish
UK domestic more fragmented than
waters and NE Atlantic. International fresh product (lower volume
integrated chains of competitors e.g.
sources include Arctic/Barents Sea and higher value (£/kg)) and
Iceland. Fresh product sent direct
(Norway, Russia, Iceland) and North internationally sourced refreshed/
by truck. Frozen product held in
Pacific/Bering Sea (USA). frozen product (higher volume and
storage, containerised and shipped
lower value (£/kg)).
and sent by truck.
Herring, mackerel, sardine/pilchard,
Pelagic products for the UK market
anchovy, tunas. UK fresh product
UK domestic sources include include fresh product (lower volume
sent direct by truck, overseas fresh
UK waters and NE Atlantic. and higher value (£/kg)) that is
Pelagic
material sent by truck and air freight.
International sources include Eastern either domestically sourced or
Frozen product held in storage,
Atlantic ocean (Spain, Morocco), internationally sourced and frozen
containerised and shipped and
Indian ocean, Pacific ocean, and product (higher volume and lower
sent by truck. UK domestic more
Atlantic ocean. value (£/kg)) that is internationally
fragmented than integrated chains
sourced.
of Iceland and Faroes.
Shellfish products for the UK market
Nephrops, cold water prawn, farmed include fresh but a sizeable volume
UK domestic sources include UK
warm water prawn. UK fresh of frozen product is also represented
Shellfish
waters and NE Atlantic. International
product sent direct by truck. Frozen from UK and international sources.
sources include North Atlantic, and
product held in storage, and sent Fresh domestic product tends to be
farmed sources in South East Asia
by truck with international material high value low volume, and frozen
and Central America.
containerised and shipped. product tend to be low volume and
high value (£/kg).
Exotic seafood products for the UK
market include fresh (including live)
UK domestic sources include UK Carp, wild and farmed bass, farmed
Exotic
product, and frozen product. Both
waters. International sources include bream, snappers, kingfish, parrotfish,
fresh and frozen product tend to be
EU, Asia, Australia, and Africa. and groupers.
low volume and range from low to
high value (£/kg).
2.4 Framing seafood consumption
risks
Risks to UK seafood consumption are
summarised in table 2.6. Specific risks vary by
consumer group, product type, as well as outlets.
Examples are provided to illustrate how these
risks impact on the industry - particularly in price,
quality, and convenience as these risk areas are
elevated in current conditions.
10Table 2.6 Dimensions and risk to seafood consumption
Areas of specific
Dimension Example areas of specific risk
risk
Price range Polarisation of product value – premium versus value
Expectation that fish price should fall / or be at a low price
Price ceiling (max) Fish can be expensive relative to substitutes as disposable income
Price decreases
Price floor (min) The availability of volume supply – top 5/salmon/alternative species/etc
Price of edible
Level of waste involved in storing/preparing/cooking fish products
protein
Changes in ethnic mix and the influences on fish as a protein and particular
Taste
species within that.
Freshness Capability of freezing technology to support this
Level of consumer trust : chefs ‘versus’ brands ‘versus’ consumer
Quality (themselves or trusted advocates e.g. bloggers)
Brand loyalty falling with a more promiscuous consumer
Consistency
Enhanced by trusted brands, trusted outlets and online purchasing
Capability of a consolidated -v- fragmented industry
Presence and presentation of fish on online retail platforms
Heightened awareness with rise of digital marketing, real-time campaigns
Awareness constrained by fragmented industry/promotion
Priorities of influential outlets
Focus of outlets (e.g. discounters/number of metros) constraining shop
Availibility window
Specialisation (e.g. focus on chilled OR frozen) undermines diversity
message
Range and exposure of fish on offer resulting from store layout/formats &
fragmented internal operations e.g. presence of fish counters
Packaging
Fish sitting alongside/given lower billing versus other proteins (e.g. Deli’s/
Number of fish dishes on menu’s/in restaurants)
Convenience
Fish a more difficult protein to choose (chilled/fresh requires ‘eyeballing’)
Format matching to suit evolving eating habits (consumers grazing/ on the
go snacking/household size - older people ‘eating for one’)
Product Format Range of product formats (fresh, frozen, ambient) and requirement for pre-
processed
Format matching the deskilling of kitchen staff (reduced whole fish/
increased portions)
Protein versatility
Versatility/
preperation Norms/traditions versus experimentation (younger people, more
adventurous)
Variety driven by time/experience seeking
Time Competing demands on consumers’ time
Purchase frequency/footfall/traffic
11Fish as Food: An initial review of developments, implications and practical responses from industry and Seafish
Table 2.6 Dimensions and risk to seafood consumption (Cont.)
Areas of specific
Dimension Example areas of specific risk
risk
Safety Health, fraud and mislabelling concerns e.g. Horse meat scandal
Promotional focus on emotion/experience at expense of function & vice-
Health awareness
Health versa
Polarisation of role – ‘functional’ versus ‘experience’
Nutritional content
Health credentials
People Slavery, bonded labour concerns, fair trade etc
Welfare
Animals Welfare of fish and others in food chain e.g. seals
Resources Oceans More environmental factors now required (market access requirement)
2.5 Supporting consumption in Policy: Regulation, Government, NGOs
the UK seafood and the wider • Global
protein industry
◦◦ UN FAO – The Livestock, Environment &
At present there are various levels of initiative Development initiative (LEAD)
by industry, policy, and research stakeholders
supporting responsible protein consumption and ◦◦ UN FAO/UNEP – Sustainable Food Systems
production. Examples are listed below. Programme (SFSP)
Industry: ◦◦ Global Roundtable for Sustainable Beef
• General protein awareness, generic marketing, • UK
and data ◦◦ Eating Better campaign (encouraging
◦◦ Fish (Seafish) – Fish is the dish, Seafood dietary shifts towards less and better meat
week, F&C shop of the year consumption)
◦◦ Pork, Lamb, Beef (Agriculture and ◦◦ World Wildlife Fund Livewell Plate
Horticulture Development Board (AHDB)) ◦◦ Celebrity and celebrity chef campaigns
• Specific seafood promotions (often species – including Paul McCartney’s Meat Free
specific) by regional sources of supply Monday campaign, Hugh Fearnley-
Whittingstall (sustainable diets) and Jamie
◦◦ Norwegian Seafood Council (cod, haddock, Oliver (healthier school meals).
etc)
Research:
◦◦ Alaska Seafood Marketing Institute (Salmon,
Alaska Pollock, etc) Specialist research centres with an interest
in food and seafood consumption include:
◦◦ Seafood Scotland (cod, haddock, mackerel, Stirling University (consumers and marketing),
herring, Nephrops, etc) Bournemouth University (consumers), Aberdeen
University (health and nutrition), and Oxford
• Specific seafood product promotions University (Oxford Martin Programme on the
Future of Food and Food Climate Research
◦◦ Individual brand owner campaigns
Network).
◦◦ Multiple retailer campaigns
◦◦ Scottish salmon, Scottish shellfish, etc.
123. Drivers and risk 3.1 Food security
developments affecting The main aspects of food security are: a
seafood consumption globalised economy; global population increase;
and global availability of raw material. Projected
– the long view economic growth, growth in population (and
middle class income), and changing tastes and
This chapter summarises the main drivers diets in regions around the world suggest:
and risk developments affecting the seafood
industry over the long term, with a focus on • A world economy rebalancing towards Asia.
seafood consumption in particular. This draws • An expanding global middle class (squeezed in
on developments that are both observed (by 3rd developed countries).
parties) and experienced (by industry operators).
• Increased protein consumption with regional
Table 3.1 shows the long view of drivers and risk differences, regions in which per capita fish
developments affecting seafood consumption, consumption (Fig 3.1):
experienced or observed in the period 1997-2008
through to those anticipated in 2019-2029. ◦◦ high and predicted to grow strongly (China,
South East Asia and North America)
Systemic global risk developments, notably food
security and climate change, act as multipliers to ◦◦ high and predicted to grow weakly (East
amplify the above risk developments and their Asia and Pacific, Europe and Central Asia,
impacts (threats and opportunities). Japan)
Table 3.1 The long view: 1997/2007 – 2008/2018 – 2019/2029
Risk Development
Driver
From To
UK economic growth, with Limited economic growth, expanding
premiumisation convenience and added overseas markets with greater focus on
value products convenience and added value products
Constrained supply in traditional Broadening of species and supply
Economic developments supplies with opening up of new supply sources with traditional supplies
sources potentially constrained
Expanded middle - ‘we’re all middle Squeezed middle (low wage economy,
class now’ (disposable income/debt reduced disposable income) and savvy
increasing) shopper
Free trade agreements (UK won’t run
Diminishing tariffs (new sources of
out of food, but higher prices, less
protein)
choice)
Trade developments
Competitive pressure to secure supply,
Sporadic supply disruptions in producing
more processing in third countries
countries
(outside UK control)
Growing UK population, globalisation, Growing population that is diverse and
tourism ageing
Population
Fragmented, greater demands on
Erosion of family as stabiliser
individual (work, leisure, caring)
Introduction/growth in scrutiny (medical
Scrutiny/regulation community ‘don’t eat’ lists), increased Forensic testing (allergies etc)
testing
Media influence (Incl Influence of social media (trusted
Emergence of celebrity chefs
NGOs) advocates)
Dynamic internet (2nd generation) and
Static web information (1st generation)
“internet of things” (3rd generation)
Outliers Technical innovations driving Technical innovations driving
aquaculture (making salmon, prawns, aquaculture (making new species
pangasius, available in volume) available in volume)
13Fish as Food: An initial review of developments, implications and practical responses from industry and Seafish
• Global fish production expected to increase, contributed to changing distribution of target
based on: species (as some traditional species may move
away and warmer water species move in) whilst
◦◦ wild capture having zero growth with in shellfish fisheries there are changes in the
aquaculture expanding at a declining rate. prevalence of non-native species/jellyfish. In all
fisheries, offshore operations will be impacted
◦◦ concentration in Asia (particularly India,
with challenges to safe working conditions and
South East Asia and China) driven by
gear deployment/performance.
species amenable to aquaculture (prawn,
salmon, tilapia, carp and pangasius).
17.4-18.2
9.4-9.6
AFR 6.8-5.6 22.9-26.4 64.7-62.2
9.3-9.4
CHN 32.6-41.0
EAP 27.1-23.8 11.0- 32.6-41.0
ECA 17.4-18.2 15.7 27.1-23.8
IND 5.6-6.6 5.6-6.6
JAP 64.7-62.2 6.8-5.6 25.8-29.6
LAC 8.4-7.5
MNA 9.3-9.4 8.4-7.5
NAM 22.9-26.4
SAR 11.0-15.7
SEA 25.8-29.6
ROW 9.4-9.6 Growth in per capita fish consumption by region 2010-2030 (World Bank, 2013: 13, 45) - global average 17.2-18.2
Figure 3.1 Projected growth in per capita fish consumption by region,
2010-2030 (kg/person/year). World Bank (2013:13,45)
3.2 Climate change Climate change may also have implications for
aquaculture supplies, especially those originating
The main physical climate change impacts of in estuarine areas. There may be impacts from
interest to industry are: increased storminess and waves, air or sea
temperature change, changes in rainfall/land run-
• Sea level rise and extreme water levels off, and acidification.
• Changes in storms and waves Onshore, the above risk developments are
• Changes in temperature compounded by sea level rise and extreme water
levels. This can give rise to impacts affecting
• Ocean acidification and de-oxygenation of sea onshore operators:
water
• Damage to site infrastructure (port &
• Changes in terrestrial rainfall (i.e. through processors).
surface flooding of land-based infrastructure,
plus its role in transferring water, contaminants, • Integrity of electricity supplies.
and pollutants from land to sea. • Transport distribution (including ferries).
The two main climate change drivers that lead • Integrity of housing and reduced
to priority risk developments for wild capture employment.
seafood are increased storminess and waves and
air or sea temperature change. In shellfish an
additional driver is changes in rainfall/land run-
off. For whitefish and pelagic fisheries, this has
144. UK seafood consumption • All age cohorts are seeking to maintain, or
enhance, their standard of living. Overall,
– recent and anticipated households are choosing to save less in an
developments, impacts and attempt to maintain living standards with some
able to achieve this more easily than others. For
response example, in general terms:
Given the drivers and longer term developments ◦◦ ‘Strivers’ may be increasingly time poor and
set out in the previous section, this chapter cash poor
identifies the recent and anticipated risk ◦◦ ‘Thrivers’ may be increasingly time poor and
developments and impacts for industry. These are cash poor/rich
described as they relate to the consumer, proteins,
products and outlets (retail and food service). ◦◦ ‘Survivors’ may be increasingly time rich and
The chapter concludes with examples of industry cash rich
impacts and a list of action areas suggested by
way of response to anticipated developments. • ‘Thrivers’ are having more demands put on
them; examples include caring for elderly
All protein sectors (including seafood) share a relatives (as public services become stretched)
common exposure to changing consumption and and younger cohorts remaining at home longer
expectations of consumers relating to: (being unable to afford housing), and women
having to switch family for work to maintain
• Price - a more challenging price environment disposable income. Economic inactivity has
(with the upward pressure on prices) reduced for women, with the main reason
• Quality - raised expectations of consistent being a decline in the share of women staying
quality out of work to look after the family or home.
This has not been compensated for by men
• Convenience – a desire for products that fit staying at home to look after the family or
with increasingly busy lifestyles home. Meanwhile ‘strivers’ are exposed to
opportunities that can be increasingly out of
• Health – a greater awareness of nutritional reach.
merits.
• UK population dynamics mean the older cohort
• Welfare and resources – an expectation that (‘survivors’) is generally expanding and able
these aspects are ‘taken care of’. to work longer, relative to the younger cohorts
(‘strivers’ and ‘thrivers’). The development of
Whilst the UK meat protein industry may share
technology and online services has meant the
these concerns, the seafood industry and
consumer is more ‘connected’ than ever, and
individual sectors within that have exposure in
has been relieved of burdensome, mundane
different ways. This exposure is briefly explored
and time-consuming tasks; increasing leisure
in the next few sections.
time and exposure to wider influences and
opportunities. Yet ironically this is leading to
4.1 Consumers
lifestyles that are increasingly fragmented
4.1.1 Recent developments (tastes, smaller households, the ‘always on’
consumer). With a progressively individualistic
• UK population has grown at an accelerating society, consumers are increasingly dining
rate and is ageing. Population grew by 7.8m alone. Consumers are moving from the
since 1980 with about half of this growth traditional lifestyle arranged around ‘three-
since 2005; propelled by, amongst others, a meals-a-day’ towards ‘grazing’ that fits around
stronger economy (from 2012) and immigration lifestyle. This is reflected in food preparation
(particularly from the EU). time (which, in some studies, has fallen from 60
mins in 1980 to 34 mins in 2015).
• From 1980-2007 UK households enjoyed a long
period of rising household disposable income, • Consumer attitudes are shaped by two
coupled with widening inequality. Since 2007 opposing dynamics: value for money for me
households have been under pressure with and my family (price, quality, convenience, and
disposable incomes having plateaued (younger health) and what’s right for other people and
cohorts particularly challenged; older cohorts the wider world (health, welfare, and resources).
less so). Household expenditure has shown There has been a long trend towards food
a decrease since 2006, with the major cost consumption as a pleasurable experience and
items being housing costs (higher share of attitudes that embrace the wider world. Since
households renting) and fuel and power. economic conditions tightened from 2008, UK
15Fish as Food: An initial review of developments, implications and practical responses from industry and Seafish
consumer attitudes have sharpened. Greater • Having relegated health concerns in the
interest was shown towards me and my family aftermath of the 2008 recession, health
(price and quality) relative to other people awareness and nutritional aspects of food
(convenience, nutrition, welfare) and the wider has regained ground. Awareness of health
world (resources) (see Fig 4.1). As economic as a factor has recovered perhaps as mid-
conditions have eased initial sharpening has age cohorts (‘thrivers’) take on caring
given way to a widening interest in convenience, responsibilities, those moving into the older
nutrition, and welfare (supported by an ageing cohort (‘survivors’) engage with the health
population and recent scandals such as agenda (GPs, hospitals, etc) and events such
‘horsegate’). Consumer attitudes around price, as ‘horsegate’ that highlight food fraud and
quality and health now have much greater undermine product integrity.
influence than sustainability concerns, with the
latter remaining a confusing concept to many • Beyond the legal requirements over welfare
consumers. and resource, the range of expectations
concerning these attributes is broad and in
Pre 2007 2008 - 2013 2013+
Figure 4.1 A growing concern for price and widening the case of seafood (with shifting arguments
expectations around sustainability) particularly confusing.
In the years since 2008, these attributes have
• In food, the longer term trend of cheaper diminished in importance relative to price for a
food relative to income, and widening access large number of consumers.
to food, is being challenged. With significant
numbers of consumers of reduced spending
4.1.2 Anticipated in the next five years
capacity, there is a growing consumer focus on • Increasing births and net migration will drive
price (for consumers in general the price range continued population growth by nearly 0.5
has narrowed and the price ceiling lowered). million p.a. Population is expected to reach
The requirement of all age groups has given 73 million (and potentially 79 million) by
additional impetus to a longer term trend in 2037. This population will be older (longer life
convenience. There has been the rise of the expectancy), and more diverse (immigration).
‘savvy’ shopper, prepared to ‘shop around’ and
cut corners in order to maintain an expected • If population increases faster than the economy
level of purchasing and range of experiences. then UK consumers will get poorer on a per
Product attributes commensurate with busy, capita basis. These developments will increase
connected lifestyles include formats suited to pressure on housing, services, and disposable
small basket shopping, kit-cooking (a substitute income (consumers will either cut spending or,
to the full cooking experience) and versatility failing that, cut savings or increase borrowing).
to overcome lack of confidence in cooking skills We might expect this to put further pressure to
and encourage experimentation. Attributes be active in the economy (with more pressure
suited to the older cohort include product for both parents to work at the expense of
formats that match smaller households or looking after the family/home)
individual living.
16• If economic conditions hold rather than • UK meat consumption levels have remained
deteriorate, consumers concerns for food will steady since the mid-1970s (although declining
continue to focus on function (food as fuel), in recent years), but culinary styles and tastes
balancing this where possible with food as an have broadened. Important changes in the
experience (emotion and pleasure). Attitudes types of meat eaten include:
will continue to focus on me and my family
(price, quality, convenience, and health) with an ◦◦ Rise in poultry consumption - increases may
expectation that concerns of other people and reflect sector consolidation and declining
the wider world (health, welfare, and resources) relative costs, convenience (versatile protein),
are ‘taken care of’. and health attributes.
• We might expect the consumer to show ◦◦ Decline in red meat, particularly beef and
continued sensitivity to food price with low lamb - having suffered a number of food
price ceilings before consumers show interest. safety concerns (from BSE to ‘horsegate’)
This may mean a growing concern for waste this may have led to lower consumption and
and sensitivity to what consumers are getting a focus on higher quality meat.
for their money (price of edible protein). ◦◦ Relatively stable consumption of fish - with a
• The demands placed on mid-age cohorts broadening of species so that consumers are
(particularly ‘thrivers’) are unlikely to retreat. able to switch between close substitutes.
Leisure time can be expected to increase in ◦◦ Meat substitutes (such as tofu or Quorn) –
value and become part of the ‘value for money these have emerged as alternative options in
envelope’. In managing this the shift to grazing traditional meat products (stir-fry, Bolognese,
(and further erosion of three-meals-a-day) will etc) and may appeal to certain age cohorts
continue, and we may see consumers managing (younger age groups for example).
their connectivity (connections reduced to
known and trusted parties) to reduce the • Although seafood is perceived to be expensive,
‘always on’ access. To manage leisure time, longer term changes in fish supply have kept
consumers will place a higher premium on prices in check by lowering the price floor for
convenience. Specifically this may mean higher raw material. This includes switching of wild
interest in food that is targeted/available, in capture supplies of whitefish (Alaska pollock for
formats that support grazing and reduce waste cod), and innovation in aquaculture introducing
(storage, preparation, cooking), and can meet higher supply volumes - specifically in salmon,
the time requirement – i.e. supports experience/ shellfish (warmwater prawn) and whitefish
experimentation, and offers versatility). (pangasius). Since 2008, the relatively high
price of seafood has seen a decline in overall
• We may also expect health aspects to be of
fish consumption.
continuing and growing interest for those in,
or approaching, the older cohort (‘thrivers’ • Between 2007 and 2014, overall food prices
and ‘survivors’). For these consumers, health increased by 22%. Within this, the price increase
features may form part of the value envelope of specific proteins varied: lamb (42%), fish
i.e. if the product cannot compete on price then (36%), beef (35%), pork (30%), poultry (13%),
experience and health attributes may prove and bacon (12%). With less money, the general
attractive features. response from consumers was to spend less
and trade down to make savings. Lower income
• Beyond the legal requirements, the relative
groups were disproportionately affected (spent
importance of welfare and resource attributes
more, purchased less and saved less than
are likely to remain diminished, of major concern
average). More specifically, consumers:
only to a minority. In seafood, given the levels of
confusion, there will be an expectation amongst ◦◦ Increased quantity of pork, spending more,
the majority that any legal requirements will be switching to lower priced items
‘taken care of’.
◦◦ Reduced quantity of poultry, spending more,
4.2 Protein and switching to higher priced items
4.2.1 Recent developments ◦◦ Reduced quantity of lamb, lower spend, and
switching to lower priced items
• UK per capita meat consumption1 is high in
global terms but average for western Europe. ◦◦ Reduced quantity of fish/beef/bacon, lower
spend, switching to lower price items
1 153g/man/day and 111g/woman/day of red and white meat and fish (DOH National Diet and Nutrition Survey, 2014). 17Fish as Food: An initial review of developments, implications and practical responses from industry and Seafish
• Alongside reasonable prices, the growth in • With recommendations for limiting meat
farmed production – and salmon in particular consumption, and red meat in particular, for
- has supported the fish category in terms of reasons of health and environmental resources,
quality (providing consistency in a category we may expect consumers (particularly ‘thrivers’
otherwise mistrusted, and even feared, by many and ‘survivors’) to look more favourably on
consumers). The sheer diversity of seafood is seafood as a protein of choice. However, given
a strength in terms of availability but is also a the advice on overall protein intake levels, this
weakness in communicating to the consumer. may only go so far.
By providing a focus, the continued availability
of key species – salmon, cod, haddock, tuna, 4.3 Products
and warm water prawn – in suitable formats
(e.g. chilled) has presented seafood as a 4.3.1 Recent developments
convenient protein option for the consumer.
• The greater emphasis on low prices, has forced
• With the majority of the UK population the general premiumisation of seafood and red
relatively high meat eaters, there is a view meat products relative to products in other
that a general overconsumption of protein is a protein categories. In seafood, the ability to
health concern. “Meat consumption has already draw on high volumes of key species (salmon,
reached excessive levels in many western cod, haddock, warm water prawn etc) has
countries, in industrialised countries (including helped to keep certain seafood products within
the UK) it’s around twice as much as is deemed the reach of consumers.
healthy” (Chatham House, 2015). This, together
with safety concerns in other meat categories • Food fraud (mislabelling, deception etc)
e.g. red meat, the nutritional benefits of seafood generally, and ‘horsegate’ in particular, has
highlights the health standing of this category. increased the attention given to quality and
fully processed products have suffered, assisted
4.2.2 Anticipated in the next five years in seafood with declining consistency in 3rd
country seafood processing.
• Looking ahead, there is a concern that a
reduced seafood supply base may raise the • Since the 1960s, the shift to convenience has
price floor for supplies, placing upward pressure seen reduced purchases of carcass meats
on prices. There is a specific concern that the and increasing interest in processed meat
significant increase in salmon production since products and ready meals. Proteins that can
the 1990s has reached a plateau and without accommodate this changing product profile
further innovation (e.g. offshore farming) have been favoured. More recently convenience
is unlikely to be the seafood driver it once has propelled certain product formats (ready
was. Much depends on well managed and to cook products and development of kit
efficient wild capture fisheries and expanded products) and spurred the decline of others
aquaculture. Looking ahead, opportunities in (prepared meals and traditional meals e.g.
the supply base include healthy cod stocks and Sunday roast). The range of seafood product
farmed pangasius, with other farmed species formats has increased; with the ‘big five’
(e.g. tilapia) deserving further exploration. If the species dominant – supporting the arrival of
category becomes more expensive the risk is tuna salad, prawn salad, sushi etc in the last
that consumers, with continued price sensitivity, ten years. Beyond the ‘big five’ there is now a
will trade down further or trade out of the much longer tail of seafood products (helped
category altogether. In leaving the category, by the diversity of fish). In seafood, increased
consumers may opt for substitute meat proteins supply and packaging has improved availability,
(particularly chicken), or reduce the amount of elevating the chilled category and giving further
meat in their overall protein intake. support to the ready to cook product format.
Ready to cook products have been further
• If seafood supplies are maintained, and advantaged where they can offer versatility.
if suitable species are secured, increased Across proteins, particular cuts (mince – the
availability could continue to support seafood ‘ultimate kit food’, and ready to cook meats in
as a convenient protein in terms of diversity, foil), species (recipe oriented salmon and tuna),
format (i.e. chilled) and versatility. However, and proteins (chicken) are better positioned
barriers will have to be overcome2: for example to offer this – allowing the consumer to adjust
pangasius was introduced to the market these components to a variety of final meals.
successfully but convenience has been limited in
terms of versatility, and fragmented promotion. • The range of meat-based protein products has
Tilapia, meanwhile, has not established itself in evolved and expanded over recent years in
the UK despite prevalence elsewhere e.g. North order to keep pace with changing consumer
America. expectations regarding food as fuel, food as
2 Fish can suffer from uncertainties such as ‘I don’t know if I’ll like it’ – e.g. “It’s not like a piece of beef or chicken where you know you will like it. It has
18
other things involved, like smell and texture” (Hughes & Bannister, 2015).convenience, and customised food. • The complexity of welfare and resource
attributes as they relate to seafood, provide
• The growing attention to health has meant opportunities for specialist seafood products.
higher scrutiny of meat products with attention Such products can use these attributes to
drawn to negative attributes of red meat - and differentiate themselves within the protein
processed products particularly – (for example category, meeting the needs of specific
the high salt content and unhealthy fats).
consumer groups.
Processed products have been challenged
further with concerns over product integrity; the
recent ‘horsegate’ scandal prompted consumers
4.4 Outlets
to ‘trade up’ with some buying less meat Retail and food service have had a symbiotic
(particularly ready meals and processed meats) relationship, with innovations in the latter
and avoiding cheaper meats. This has meant providing product development opportunities
fully prepared products have to ‘work much in the former. In recent years, this has increased
harder’ (less salt, reduced fat etc). such that distinctions are beginning to blur;
examples include food service outlets operating
4.3.2 Anticipated in the next five years within larger retail outlets to drive footfall.
• There is continued risk of increasing price, and Distinctions may be expected to blur further,
product premiumisation. This may be held if combining with social media, to shorten the
new supplies can contribute to the volume transfer from novelty to mainstream products.
market currently held by the big five species This will challenge the supply base by putting
(salmon, cod, haddock, tuna and warmwater pressure on the time and cost of producing
prawn). prepared/bespoke products.
• With convenience becoming a more important 4.4.1 Recent developments (retail)
factor, we can expect an expansion of the
• Over the longer term the consolidation of
convenience food market and products that
the retail multiples coupled with the decline
can fit with component or kit cooking. New
in independent outlets has helped to deliver
formats appeal to busy consumers buying
volume and keep prices in check for food and
perishable foods, not only making life easier
seafood. More recently, the shifting interest to
but avoiding waste (as larger portions can
low price and simplicity has favoured discount
be left to go stale), whilst challenging the
retailers – with lower overheads that can reduce
suitability of existing formats (for example
prices substantially - at the expense of the
multipacks, for an increasingly individualistic
major multiples. In seafood, retail sales volume
consumer, may contribute to food waste).
has remained static over the last five years,
The preference for a chilled format will
indicating a decline in volume consumption per
remain strong (supporting chilled and refresh
head (given population increase).
product). Convenience will be tempered
by availability and this may see some • In the wider protein context, quality and trust
fragmentation in the seafood category (large aspects brought about by product integrity
versus niche volumes). Notwithstanding a concerns led some consumers to switch outlets.
‘major event’ affecting the supply base, the big The integrity of red meat, brought about by
five species are expected to stay and compete food fraud (including ‘horsegate’ etc), led some
more directly with red meat cuts (e.g. mince), consumers to switch from supermarkets to local
and chicken for a role in component products. butchers for example.
The remaining seafood species are more likely
to serve niche products. • A number of structural changes in the
retail sector have supported the push for
• We might expect health awareness to continue convenience. The major multiples, with large
pressure on highly processed products given store footprint, have increased grocery sales
health recommendations. These call for value by around 4% in the last five years, whilst
consumers to reduce saturated fat and salt discounters and online sales value have doubled
intake, whilst highlighting the benefits such (110% and 117% respectively) - albeit from a
as reduced blood cholesterol, blood pressure, low base. This broadening of outlets increases
heart disease, and some cancers. Although exposure to the consumer and enhances
specifically targeted at reduced red meat & availability.
processed meat consumption, this may steer
consumers to reconsider processed products • The consumer shift towards smaller, more
in general (including processed seafood frequent, baskets has spurred the growth of
products). discounters allowing them to ‘take the shop
window to the customer’. Although enhancing
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