Southern Grampians Shire - Retail Strategy - Southern ...

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Southern Grampians Shire - Retail Strategy - Southern ...
Southern Grampians Shire

         Retail Strategy

                           Southern Grampians Retail Strategy
Southern Grampians Shire - Retail Strategy - Southern ...
We wish to acknowledge the support of
Regional Development Victoria in the
development of this strategy
Southern Grampians Shire - Retail Strategy - Southern ...
Contents

Executive Summary                          3    6    Forecasts and Scenarios                       37
1   Introduction                           7         6.1 Background                                37
      1.1 The Project                      7         6.2 Population Forecast                       37
      1.2 This Report                      7         6.3 Retail demand                             38
2   Trends in Retail Development           9         6.4 Current Retail Development                40
                                                         Proposals
      2.1 The Australian Retail Industry   9
                                                     6.5 Retail Development Scenarios              41
      2.2 Consumer Preferences             9
                                                        6.5.1 Base case                            43
      2.3 Retailer strategies              12
                                                        6.5.2 Low/no growth scenario               44
      2.4 Retail Development Policy        15
                                                        6.5.3 High growth scenario                 44
         2.4.1 Activity Centres and        15
               Planning Policy                          6.5.4 Comparison of Scenarios              45
         2.4.2 Council Planning Policy     18   7    Objectives                                    46
      2.5 Outlook                          19   8    Supporting activity centres                   47
3   Retailing in the Southern Grampians    21        8.1 Objective                                 47
    3.1 Retail Activity                    22        8.2 Reasons                                   47
    3.2 Activity Centres and the Retail    22        8.3 Strategies                                47
        Hierarchy
                                                9    Support Existing Traders                      53
    3.3 Description of Centres             26
                                                     9.1 Objective                                 53
        3.3.1 Hamilton Town Centre         26
                                                     9.2 Reason                                    54
        3.3.2 Coleraine                    26
                                                     9.3 Strategies                                54
        3.3.3 Penshurst                    27
                                                10   Retail planning framework                     57
        3.3.4 Dunkeld                      27
                                                     10.1 Objective                                57
        3.3.5 Balmoral                     27
                                                     10.2 Reason                                   58
        3.3.6 Local and other centres      27
                                                     10.3 Strategies                               58
      3.4 Retail Floorspace                28
                                                11   Priorities for Action                         60
      3.5 Retail Sales                     29
                                                12   References                                    61
4   Retail Demand                          30
                                                Appendix: Key Activity Centres                     62
    4.1 Population                         30
    4.2 Retail Spending                    33
5   The Balance of Retail Supply           34
    and Demand

                                                              Southern Grampians Retail Strategy        1
Southern Grampians Shire - Retail Strategy - Southern ...
This strategy is designed
    to guide Council action on
    retailing and the activity
    centre network in the
    Southern Grampians Shire.
2
Southern Grampians Shire - Retail Strategy - Southern ...
Executive Summary

This draft strategy has been       1. Council will support                 It is important to note that
prepared by development               investment in existing activity      this retail strategy is part of a
consultant Tim Nott in                centres to deliver the best          broader suite of strategies that
conjunction with Geografia,           possible service to residents        Council is developing or has in
which is preparing the                and visitors                         place that will affect retailing
concurrent economic                                                        and activity centres in the Shire.
development strategy for the       2. Council will support                 These other documents include
Shire. The strategy is guided by      existing traders and their           the Economic Development
the following objectives:             organisations to improve             Strategy, the Municipal Strategic
                                      retail industry performance          Statement and planning
                                      and the viability of activity        strategies and urban design
                                      centres                              frameworks for Hamilton
                                                                           and other towns in the Shire.
                                   3. Council will put in place            The strategies and actions in
                                      a retail planning and                the following table have been
                                      development framework                suggested by Council and its
                                      that reinforces the activity         consultants in conjunction
                                      centre network and allows            with members of the business
                                      appropriate growth                   community who have been
                                                                           consulted throughout the
                                                                           development of this document.
                                                                           The actions highlighted in red
                                                                           are suggested as initial priorities
                                                                           for Council.

                                                                        Southern Grampians Retail Strategy   3
Southern Grampians Shire - Retail Strategy - Southern ...
Executive Summary cont.

Objective/Strategy/Action                                                Performance indicator
Objective: Support activity centres
1 Work with investors to fill identified gaps in the retail mix and to improve the draw of existing centres
1.1 Work with land-holders and potential investors to secure a site      Investment in DDS
for a discount department store in the Hamilton town centre
1.2 Identify other sites in the Hamilton town centre and its fringes     Investment in bulky goods/
for potential bulky goods/restricted retailing                           restricted retailing
1.3 Work with stakeholders to secure improved convenience retail         Securing investment in
facilities in small town centres commensurate with their role in the     convenience retailing in
retail hierarchy                                                         neighbourhood and local
                                                                         centres
1.4 Work with others to secure investment in entertainment and           Increase in non-retail
other service sector activities as well as an increase in the number     investment in centres
of dwellings in centres
2 Work with investors to improve services to visitors
2.1 Continue to implement the recommendations of the Southern            Improved visitation and visitor
Grampians Tourism Strategy and secure increased investment in            yield
tourism retail product
2.2 Ensure that urban design frameworks for town centres cater for       Visitor services incorporated
the needs of visitors                                                    into urban design frameworks
2.3 Encourage investment in a wider range of food service outlets in     Improvement in dining options
Hamilton and other centres
2.4 Investigate the provision of wi-fi services throughout Hamilton      Feasibility assessment of
town centre                                                              providing a free wi-fi service in
                                                                         Hamilton town centre
3 Work with stakeholders to improve the physical attractiveness of centres
3.1 Implement urban design strategies for centres                        Increase in pedestrian activity in
                                                                         centres
3.2 Work with stakeholders to improve the efficiency and access          Increase in the number of
to car-parking in the Hamilton town centre, and this may include         parking spaces in the town
provision and promotion of an all-day car park for city workers          centre
3.3 Ensure that, wherever possible, Council locates its services in      Increased proportion of Council
activity centres in order to concentrate demand and generate new         jobs located in activity centres
activity
3.4 Ensure a rapid response to maintenance and safety issues             Improvement in perception of
within centres                                                           centres
3.5 Ensure that, wherever possible, new development creates active       Reduction in “dead spots” in
frontages in centres                                                     centres

4
Southern Grampians Shire - Retail Strategy - Southern ...
Executive Summary cont.

Objective/Strategy/Action                                                   Performance indicator
4 Work with stakeholders to reduce the adverse impact of vacant space in key centres
4.1 Identify vacant and under-used shop space in centres                    Data-base of shop use and
                                                                            ownership
4.2 Work with owners and community stakeholders to identify                 Reduction in vacancy rate and
potential activities                                                        increased activity
4.3 Identify urban design treatments that can be used to                    Improvement in perception of
differentiate former shops that are now homes from vacant shops.            active streets
4.4 Consider promotion of vacant space as a whole to organisations          Identification of potential large-
that may take more than one shop-front                                      scale customers for vacant
                                                                            space
5 Work with land-holders to ensure sufficient well-located property is available for key activities in
centres
5.1 Convene a regular forum of land-holders in Hamilton town                Regular meetings of land-
centre to identify efficiencies in land provision and opportunities for     holders in Hamilton town centre
collaboration
5.2 Consider direct intervention (ie purchase of land) to secure            Undertake rapid feasibility
appropriate investment; this could involve the provision of a rolling       assessment of land purchase
property investment fund                                                    in Hamilton town centre to
                                                                            facilitate DDS development
5.3 Undertake a car-parking strategy for the Hamilton town centre           Complete car parking strategy
and identify areas that could accommodate new consolidated car
parking including multi-storey parking
5.4 Further investigate institution of a rolling property development       Feasibility assessment of rolling
fund as a means of improving the physical fabric of town centres            property fund
6 Dedicate resources to place management
6.1 Employ a place manager to coordinate Council investment in              Employment of a place manager
the Hamilton town centre and to implement and further develop
Council policy
6.2 Coordinate and promote the calendar of events for the town              Promotion of a calendar of
centre                                                                      events
Objective: Support traders and their organisations
7 Support traders’ organisations in individual centres
7.1 Consider the provision of funds towards the development of              Development of traders’
traders’ organisations in Hamilton and the neighbourhood activity           organisations
centres
7.2 Provide funds to traders’ groups for the development of a               Business plans for centres
business plan for each centre

                                                                          Southern Grampians Retail Strategy     5
Southern Grampians Shire - Retail Strategy - Southern ...
Executive Summary cont.

Objective/Strategy/Action                                                Performance indicator
7.3 Consider the provision of funds to traders’ organisations to help    Improved provision and take-up
provide trader training (including hospitality, customer service,        of trader training opportunities
window displays and internet trading)
7.4 Provide funds towards promotional activities in individual           Improved targeting of
centres, targeting those key markets identified in business planning     promotional expenditure
7.5 Ensure that each centre has a calendar of events and that these      Improved coordination of events
are coordinated across the Shire
7.6 Encourage the provision of a higher minimum level of service         Longer opening hours on the
in Hamilton town centre across the weekend for visitors and              weekend
residents, including opening of cafes and post office
7.7 Encourage existing and new traders to invest in internet trading     Growth in internet trading and
                                                                         improved viability of businesses
7.8 Consider the introduction of a special charge scheme in              Growth in funds available to
Hamilton town centre to fund town centre development, trader             implement Hamilton town
training and promotion                                                   centre business plan
8 Support Shire-wide retail business promotion and development
8.1 Undertake coordination of regional promotion of the Shire’s          Regional promotional campaign
activity centres                                                         for the Shire’s activity centres
8.2 Coordinate and promote calendar of events in the Shire’s             Shire-wide calendar of events
activity centres
8.3 Seek to develop new and complementary events in activity             Establishment of new events
centres in conjunction with traders groups
Objective: Develop retail planning framework
9 Ensure that the retail and activity centre policies are clear in Council’s land-use plan
9.1 Prepare a retail development framework that is based on, and         Revision of the Municipal
reinforces, the existing network of centres                              Strategic Statement in the
                                                                         planning scheme
9.2 Establish the criteria for assessing proposals for retail            Adopt the retail development
development, including new centres and out-of-centre retailing           criteria
9.3 Ensure that the retail strategy and other relevant documents         Reference the retail strategy in
are referenced in the Southern Grampians Planning Scheme                 the planning scheme

6
Southern Grampians Shire - Retail Strategy - Southern ...
1. Introduction

1.1 The Project                      1.2 This Report                        An appendix provides the
                                                                            strategy as it applies to
The Southern Grampians Shire         This report is a draft retail          individual centres.
Council has commissioned             strategy in two parts:
Geografia to prepare an updated                                             The strategy will be finalised
Economic Development Strategy        • The Background provides a            following input from Council.
for the Shire to guide Council’s       summary of the existing retail
efforts to attract investment          situation in the Southern
and to encourage sustainable           Grampians Shire, the retail
development. As part of this           policy framework and retail
project, Council requires a retail     development scenarios for the
strategy that provides guidance        Shire.
for retail development. This
retail strategy is being prepared    • The Strategy is based around
by Tim Nott in conjunction with        the principles of supporting
Geografia.                             activity centres, supporting
                                       traders and their organisations
                                       and providing a clear retail
                                       development framework.

                                                                         Southern Grampians Retail Strategy   7
Southern Grampians Shire - Retail Strategy - Southern ...
8
2. Trends in Retail Development

2.1 The Australian Retail Industry

In 2006, retailing was the largest industry in Australia,
employing over one million people or 11% of the total
work-force (ABS, Census of Population and Housing). In
that year, the industry comprised around 217,000 firms
which added $53 billion in value to the economy and had a
turnover of $199 billion (ABS, Australian Year Book 2008).
Retailing is shaped by the interplay between consumer
demands, the competing strategies of retailers and
development policies of government. These factors are
explored in the following sections.
2.2 Consumer Preferences           over many years. The hierarchy         • Convenience
                                   of centres allows the provision
                                                                            Increased participation in the
• Keen prices                      of the most often required
                                                                            paid workforce and longer
 Keen prices are a major, if       goods and services in the most
                                                                            working hours in many
 not dominant concern of most      numerous centres, with goods
                                                                            families has meant less time
 shoppers. However, most           and services that are required
                                                                            for routine shopping. These
 also value their time and so      less often in the larger and
                                                                            families are drawn to shops
 travel costs of the shopping      less numerous centres.
                                                                            and shopping centres that
 trip are also taken into          Internet sales are growing               minimise time spent on routine
 account in the overall price      largely as a result of being able        shopping trips. This benefits
 analysis that is undertaken       to access the lowest prices              larger supermarkets, and
 consciously or unconsciously      from Australia and around the            one-stop shopping centres.
 by most shoppers. The             world.                                   For older people, convenience
 demand for keen prices has                                                 can also mean having shops
 created pressure on retailers                                              within walking distance. And
 to reduce costs (property                                                  for people in small towns,
 development, logistics etc) and                                            convenience means having a
 has also generated demand                                                  local corner shop rather than
 for an equitable and rational                                              having to travel to a larger
 dispersal of retail facilities                                             centre. Convenience is also a
 so that travel costs are                                                   factor in the growth of internet
 minimised. This is what has                                                sales, as people can shop
 driven the development of a                                                from home at a time of their
 hierarchy of shopping centres                                              choosing.

                                                                       Southern Grampians Retail Strategy   9
2. Trends in Retail Development cont.

2.2 Consumer Preferences             • Sustainable and healthy
CONT.                                  products
                                      Many individuals and families
• High level of choice
                                      are increasingly concerned
 We live in a diverse community       about health issues. Better
 in which market segments are         information about the effects
 increasingly fragmented to           of products on individual,
 reflect the choices of smaller       social and environmental
 groups of people. This benefits      health is in demand. This
 both larger stores that can          information is being used by
 carry a wide variety of stock        some consumers to direct their
 and stores that cater to the         expenditure towards healthier
 needs of growing market              products, with a growth in low
 niches. High levels of choice, in    fat, low salt foods, organic
 individual stores and in activity    foods, and products which have
 centres, allow shoppers to           low carbon input (including
 compare product features and         locally grown food that has low
 this drives innovation and the       food miles).
 development of new products
                                      Farmers’ markets are one
 to service smaller and smaller
                                      consequence of the desire
 market niches.
                                      to support sustainable food
                                      production in particular. These
                                      allow direct contact between
                                      producers and consumers
                                      without the need for retail
                                      intermediaries.

10
2. Trends in Retail Development cont.

• Increasing affluence                          The result has been a real               In the Southern Grampians
                                                growth in retail sales per head          context, the demand for
 Retail spending per person
                                                of population averaging around           entertainment and “something
 has been increasing steadily in
                                                1% per year since 1983, as               different” generates
 real terms as a result of real
                                                detailed in the chart below.             shopping trips by residents to
 increases in average incomes
                                                                                         Warrnambool, Ballarat and
 across the community. More                 • Shopping as entertainment                  Melbourne. However, the
 and more products are being
                                                Shopping for non-essentials              activity centres of the Shire
 commoditised; that is, things
                                                is part of a day out for                 attract shoppers from the
 that previous generations
                                                many people and may be                   wider region who are also
 made for themselves are now
                                                combined with other leisure or           seeking “something different”
 sold as ready made goods
                                                recreational activities such as          and who appreciate the
 (think of biscuits, jams and
                                                dining, visits to the cinema or          attractive small town centres
 preserves, knitted jumpers,
                                                the art gallery, or a walk in the        and the charm of Hamilton’s
 barbecues, toys and cubby
                                                countryside. This factor has             Gray Street.
 houses, for example). In
 addition, the increasing                       supported the growth of tourist
 technological sophistication                   centres and sustained the
 of our society has generated                   demand for multi-functional
 a host of new products that                    activity centres that have
 are seen as necessary for                      a range of entertainment
 modern life (mobile phones,                    options.
 computers, video games etc).

Figure 1: Real growth in sales per head of population, Victorian retailers, 1983 to 2010 ($2010)

       Source: ABS, 2011; ABS 2011a; Tim Nott

                                                                                    Southern Grampians Retail Strategy   11
2. Trends in Retail Development cont.

2.3 Retailer strategies               development of franchises            has seen the growth of shops
                                      and buying groups has been           selling new products such as
• Concentration                       used to create economies             computer games, or micro-
 Strategies to compete on price       of scale in purchasing and           specialisation such as shops
 have driven the formation            marketing whilst still allowing      selling just tea or juice.
 of larger and larger entities        individual operators to manage       Specialisation can also involve
 with huge buying power. The          their own business. These            new juxtapositions of old
 larger retailers are able to         kinds of businesses operate          products – coffee with books or
 dictate terms to primary             in most retail segments from         music, women’s fashion with
 producers and manufacturers          supermarkets (such as IGA)           hair-dressing etc.
 on wholesale prices and              to fast food (McDonalds) and
                                                                           Many highly specialist shops
 the precise specification of         homewares (Harvey Norman
                                                                           can remain independent of
 goods. The supermarkets,             and Mitre 10).
                                                                           location – their customers will
 for example, are backed by a         These tendencies towards             go to them no matter where
 large, complex and efficient         concentration have led many          they are. However, there is
 supply chain that enables            chain stores to maximise             a distinct advantage in being
 them to deliver low prices on        their throughput by locating         centrally placed in relation
 a very wide range of goods.          in regional and sub-regional         to the market, and that will
 The major chains are able            shopping centres where the           usually mean a location in a
 to obtain almost blanket             flow of potential customers is       larger shopping centre.
 coverage of the market – not         the largest. The implication
 many people in Victoria are          for the Southern Grampians          • Cost reduction and big box
 very far from a Woolworths           retail strategy is that, in order     development
 or Coles supermarket (and            to maximise sustainable retail       The need to maximise sales
 this contributes to the parent       investment, Hamilton should          has prompted most traders to
 businesses of these chains           develop as a sub-regional            congregate in activity centres
 taking 25% of Australian retail      shopping centre (and this            where the potential customers
 turnover between them).              includes attracting a full-line      are. However, trends
 Price competition forces             discount department store            towards concentration and
 increased concentration and          - see later sections of this         specialisation have generated
 scale in comparison goods as         report).                             larger retail formats (big box
 well as groceries. Clothing                                               outlets) which sometimes have
                                     • Specialisation
 chains need more stores to                                                difficulty finding space within
 improve their buying power           As new goods are released and        traditional centres, particularly
 and reduce unit costs. Book          consumer tastes change, new          given the desire for large areas
 stores have become larger to         specialty shops are constantly       of convenient car-parking.
 increase economies of scale,         evolving. As a retail strategy,      Many of these traders have
 with the result that the major       specialisation can be used           preferred locations on the
 chains were well on the way          in market segments where             edge of or outside traditional
 to displacing the smaller            consumers are knowledgeable          activity centres where property
 independent stores (at least         or interested enough to              development costs are
 until the parent of several of       respond, and where sufficient        cheaper.
 the larger book store chains         economies of scale can be
                                                                           Originally big box outlets were
 got into financial difficulties).    obtained to compete effectively
                                                                           concentrated in the hardware
                                      on price or service. In recent
 In some cases, the                                                        and bulky goods sectors.
                                      times, continued specialisation

12
2. Trends in Retail Development cont.

Whilst these sectors still           Coles or Woolworths) and a             • Producer to consumer
account for most of the big box      full line discount department
                                                                              Some producers have always
outlets, there is now a wider        store (Target, Kmart or Big W)
                                                                              sold directly to the public
variety of goods sold through        are generally between 4,500
                                                                              including bakers and craft
these outlets including clothes,     and 8,000 sq m. Providing
                                                                              workers. Latterly, factory
sporting goods, electronic           affordable space to develop
                                                                              outlets have become popular
entertainment media and so           or adjust these core retail
                                                                              as a means of off-loading
on. The big box outlets have         activities within centres is a
                                                                              surplus stock, discontinued
evolved from single locations        key function of activity centre
                                                                              lines and seconds. However,
to collections of traders in         planning.
                                                                              the power of the supermarkets
large home-maker centres.
                                    • Increases in productivity               and other major retail chains
These may be on the edge of
                                                                              to dictate terms to producers
existing activity centres or         Reduction in the labour                  has prompted more producers
in completely stand-alone            intensity of big box outlets             to establish direct connections
locations.                           compared with traditional                with the consumer. This
Because of the expansion in          smaller shops, and the                   process has been streamlined
the types of goods sold, the         introduction of new technology           and made cheaper by the
home-maker centres are               such as scanners, eftpos,                internet. Examples include
competing more directly with         reordering at the point of               farmers who market and sell
traditional activity centres than    sale and so on has generated             direct to the public via online
hitherto. The benefits to the        higher than average                      ordering systems and an
consumer are wider choice            improvements in labour                   extensive delivery network.
of goods and increased price         productivity in retailing. In the        In other examples, farmers
competition. However, there          five years to 2009-10, average           contract grow for groups of
are also disbenefits of this         annual growth in labour                  consumers who are keen to
form of retail development           productivity in retail was 2.8%          reduce their environmental
including an increase in             compared with an average                 footprint and to support
travel costs with the need to        of 1.5% in a broad range of              sustainable local agriculture.
visit multiple centres, and a        other industries (Productivity           These examples deliver more
decline in the agglomeration         Commission, 2011). This                  of the product value to the
benefits of more multi-              increase in productivity,                producers. They reduce the
functional centres; that is,         coupled with recent slow                 need for retailing but may
where many different activities      growth in retail sales has               provide net benefits to regional
are clustered together (as           resulted in a slight decline in          economies that get a large part
in a traditional town centre)        the share of retail employment           of their external income from
the customers of one activity        in the general economy. “After           primary production.
become customers of another,         a decade of relative stability,
infrastructure used by one           the retail industry’s share
activity can also be used by         of total employment in the
others, and so on.                   economy has fallen from a
                                     peak of 11.8 per cent in 2005
On the other hand, some big
                                     to 10.8 per cent in 2010”
retail boxes form the core
                                     (Productivity Commission,
function of most significant
                                     2011).
activity centres. Branded
supermarkets are generally
from 2,500 to 5,000 sq m (for

                                                                         Southern Grampians Retail Strategy   13
2. Trends in Retail Development cont.

• Impacts on strip shopping         • The internet                      The internet provides a high
  centres                                                               level of choice, although many
                                    The Internet has been heralded      people still prefer face-to-face
Many of the trends outlined here    as a major breakthrough             explanation of product features.
have benefitted large corporate     in providing choice and             Shoppers may use the internet
centres which are able to           convenience for consumers.          to undertake research but buy
accommodate the bigger stores       New entrants to the market          their products from a person
that have regional markets and      (mainly US based such as            who can explain the alternatives.
which can control the overall       Amazon and eBay) have built         Conversely, shoppers may also
retail mix and presentation         very strong global sales and        use the knowledgeable sales
to meet and shape customer          many established retailers have     person in a bricks and mortar
needs. The home-maker centres       scrambled to get into the on-line   shop to explain the products to
have also benefitted from the       sales market. The Internet has      them and then buy online where
drive for low cost locations.       also allowed small specialist       the price is lower.
Many strip shopping centres         manufacturers and retailers to
have found it hard to compete       reach a wider market. Currently,    The growth of internet
and have suffered a decline         many larger retailers have          shopping is seen by many as a
in trade. Many small local          both bricks and mortar shops        fundamental challenge to the
centres without a significant       and an online presence. The         viability of retailing in Australia.
supermarket have closed             online presence may be used         Certainly, at the present time,
altogether.                         to provide potential customers      when the Australian dollar is
                                    with information only, although,    relatively high and imports
Nevertheless, in recent times,      increasingly, the online function   are therefore relatively cheap,
some strip centres have             may allow direct purchase.          buying online from overseas is
experienced a resurgence,                                               very price competitive.
particularly where new housing
has been encouraged in town
centres. The resurgent strips
have been able to contribute to
the lifestyle of urban residents
by providing food service              ...debate continues to rage over
from breakfast until late and
encouraging niche retailers            the role online shopping has in the
such as bookshops, quirky
homewares, organic food                downfall of Australian retail, with
sellers and independent fashion
outlets. This phenomenon has           head of the National Retailers’
certainly extended beyond the
metropolitan inner city to strips
                                       Association Gary Black saying that
in provincial centres (such as
Pakington Street in Geelong) and
                                       50,000 jobs are at risk over the next
to some smaller town centres           few years due to online shopping.
which may also benefit from
visitor expenditure (including         www.smartcompany.com.au, 29 April 2011
Kyneton and Torquay, for
example).

14
2. Trends in Retail Development cont.

The scale of online retail sales     This does have profound                2.4 Retail Development
remains unknown. There are           implications for shops. Retailers      Policy
no reliable statistics about how     selling goods with known
much is sold via the internet.       properties (books, music,              2.4.1 Activity Centres
Recent estimates quoted by the       films etc) are at a particular         and Planning Policy
Productivity Commission appear       disadvantage. Those retailers
to indicate that the internet        that have a high level of service      For the State Government,
accounts for around 6% of total      are likely to survive best; that       activity centres are “the focus
non-food sales and around 1%         is, retailers who can create an        of major urban change over
of food and grocery sales. These     attractive experience for their        the next 30 years” (see www.
shares appear to be slightly         customers, who are able to             dpcd.vic.gov.au/planning).
lower than sales in the UK and       capture and use information            Concentration of development
the USA, partly as a result of the   about the preferences of their         in and around activity centres
strong activity centre network       customers, and who are able to         creates efficiency in the
in Australia and higher levels       close a deal. Of course, some          provision of urban infrastructure,
of concern about the security        retail outlets will be largely         reducing the take-up of rural
and effectiveness of online          unaffected by the internet             land and generating improved
transactions.                        – hairdressers, cafes and              viability for services such as
                                     restaurants for example.               public transport and a higher
It does appear that the internet                                            level of privately provided
will account for a growing share     It will become more important          services including retailing and
of retail sales as:                  than ever that activity centres        entertainment. Concentration
                                     are attractive and multi-              of activity also generates more
• transaction security is            functional and that they               multi-purpose trips, reducing
  improved                           can cater to many different            transport energy use and
                                     constituencies.                        carbon emissions. This focus is
• internet connection speed                                                 expressed in the State Planning
  and reliability are improved                                              Policy Framework, as outlined
  (especially through the                                                   on the next page.
  National Broadband Network),
  allowing more elaborate                                                   In particular the State
  product displays and faster                                               Government’s planning policy
  ordering                                                                  is clear that activity centres are
                                                                            important focal points for the
• the proliferation of internet-                                            community and for economic
  capable phones and other                                                  development.
  mobile devices on which more
  and more people are becoming
  reliant for their communication
  needs and which are used as
  sales devices by companies
  such as Apple

                                                                         Southern Grampians Retail Strategy   15
2. Trends in Retail Development cont.

2.4 Retail Development Policy cont.

     Activity Centres in the State Planning Policy Framework

     11. SETTLEMENT
     Planning is to anticipate and respond to the needs of existing and future communities through
     provision of zoned and serviced land for housing, employment, recreation and open space,
     commercial and community facilities and infrastructure.
     Planning is to recognise the need for, and as far as practicable contribute towards: Health and
     safety. Diversity of choice. Adaptation in response to changing technology. Economic viability. A
     high standard of urban design and amenity. Energy efficiency. Prevention of pollution to land, water
     and air. Protection of environmentally sensitive areas and natural resources. Accessibility. Land
     use and transport integration.
     Planning is to prevent environmental problems created by siting incompatible land uses close
     together. Planning is to facilitate sustainable development that takes full advantage of existing
     settlement patterns, and investment in transport and communication, water and sewerage and
     social facilities.

     11.01 Activity Centres
     11.01-1 Activity centre network

     Objective
     To build up activity centres as a focus for high-quality development, activity and living for the whole
     community by developing a network of activity centres.

     Strategies
     • Develop a network of activity centres that:
     • Comprises a range of centres that differ in size and function
     • Is a focus for business, shopping, working, leisure and community facilities
     • Provides different types of housing, including forms of higher density housing Is connected by
       public transport and cycling networks
     • Maximises choices in services, employment and social interaction
     Support the role and function of the centre given its classification, the policies for housing
     intensification, and development of the public transport network.

16
2. Trends in Retail Development cont.

2.4 Retail Development Policy cont.

  Activity Centres in the State Planning Policy Framework CONT.

  17. ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
  Planning is to provide for a strong and innovative economy, where all sectors of the economy are
  critical to economic prosperity.
  Planning is to contribute to the economic well-being of communities and the State as a whole
  by supporting and fostering economic growth and development by providing land, facilitating
  decisions, and resolving land use conflicts, so that each district may build on its strengths and
  achieve its economic potential.

  17.01 Commercial
  17.01-1 Business

  Objective
  To encourage development which meet the communities’ needs for retail, entertainment, office
  and other commercial services and provides net community benefit in relation to accessibility,
  efficient infrastructure use and the aggregation and sustainability of commercial facilities.

  Strategies
  • Locate commercial facilities in existing or planned activity centres.
  • Provide new convenience shopping facilities to provide for the needs of the local population in
    new residential areas and within, or immediately adjacent to, existing commercial centres.
  • Provide outlets of trade-related goods or services directly serving or ancillary to industry and
    which have adequate on-site car parking.
  • Locate cinema based entertainment facilities within or on the periphery of existing or planned
    activity centres. Such facilities should not require a permit for use within activity centres and are
    not encouraged on freestanding sites.
  • A five year time limit for commencement should be attached to the planning approval for all
    shopping centres or expansions of over 1,000 square metres in floorspace.

                                                                       Southern Grampians Retail Strategy   17
2. Trends in Retail Development cont.

2.4.2 Council Planning Policy

Council’s planning policy does not include a specific direction on retailing or activity centres. However, it
is very clear about the role of the Hamilton town centre which is to be supported as the major regional
retail and business area, as indicated below.

     Hamilton Town Centre in the Local Planning Policy Framework

     22.01 Settlement
     22.01-1 Hamilton
     This policy applies to all use and development of land for residential, business and retail purposes
     in Hamilton.

     Policy Basis
     The Hamilton central business district is the major regional retail and business area. Substantial
     community and private investment has been undertaken in the central business district. This
     investment needs to be supported. Possible future proposals for freestanding retail development
     isolated from the central business district could prejudice that private and community investment.
     [....]

     Objectives
     • To support and promote the role of Hamilton as a leading regional centre.
     • To support the primacy of the existing central business district.
     • To provide a living environment with a high level of amenity with access to a full range of
       infrastructure and services.
     • To encourage and provide for investment and employment opportunities in Hamilton.

     [....]

     Implementation
     It is policy that:
     • Land use and development in Hamilton should be in accordance with the Hamilton strategic
       framework plan forming part of this policy;
     • New uses and development of land in the Business Zones are supported which are attractive,
       well designed and in character with their locality.
     • The development and redevelopment of retail premises other than local neighbourhood facilities
       outside the Hamilton central business district are discouraged to reinforce and take advantage of
       the level of community and private investment already made in the CBD.

     [....]

18
2. Trends in Retail Development cont.

2.5 Outlook

“Households’ greater preference for saving, a high
Australian dollar, the deflation of prices in many sectors,
along with other demands for the consumer’s dollar,
appear to have adversely affected the Australian retail
sector. In addition, it is likely that the growth of orders
placed with offshore online retailers has had some
impact, although the extent of this is not yet clear.”
Productivity Commission, 2011

Given the factors outlined by       Figure 2: Confidence index, small and medium retailers in Australia,
the Productivity Commission,        2007 to 2010
above, the general outlook for
shop-front retailing in Australia
in the short and medium term
is rather difficult. This gloomy
picture is reinforced by the
lack of confidence by retailers,
particularly amongst small
and medium sized businesses.
The chart below looks at the
confidence index prepared by the
Australian Retailers Association
over the period to June 2010.

                                    Source: Australian retailers Association, various dates

                                    Note: the Confidence index measures the difference between the percentage of survey
                                    respondents who are confident about the next 12 months and those who are worried about the
                                    next 12 months.

                                                                                  Southern Grampians Retail Strategy       19
2. Trends in Retail Development cont.

2.5 Outlook CONT.                      Retailers likely to do best         From a public policy viewpoint,
                                       include:                            Council must be concerned
This chart shows that, following                                           with the health and success of
a rebound in confidence after the      • those that can meet the           the activity centre network as a
Global Financial Crisis in 2008-         customer’s needs for              whole, and its ability to deliver
09, the expectations of small            convenience, low prices,          high quality and sustainable
and medium-sized retailers have          choice, sustainability and        services to residents. Activity
slumped once again.                      contribution to their lifestyle   centres are likely to be most
                                                                           healthy where:
In fact though, there are also         • those that are large enough to
some reasons to be cheerful              exercise control over the cost    • the catchment is growing and/
about retail prospects:                  of goods and create economies       or where new residents are
                                         of scale and scope                  moving in
• real retail spending per person
  is likely to continue to rise with   • those that can control the cost   • they are the focus of
  growth in incomes per person           of goods by being vertically        Government policy and
  (and at least until now, this has      integrated                          expenditure (including where
  been the historical trend)                                                 Government chooses to
                                       • those with a sales presence on      safeguard the existing and
• population in Australia will           the internet – either internet      planned hierarchy of activity
  continue to grow, generating           only or as part of a physical       centres)
  stronger demand                        and virtual retail presence
                                                                           • property prices are sufficiently
• innovation continues to              • those providing services            competitive to allow new
  generate new products at an            – cafes, restaurants and            entrants
  accelerating rate                      hairdressers etc
                                                                           • land-owners are willing
                                       • those that have a high level        participants in the continual
                                         of service embedded in their        redevelopment of the centre
                                         goods, including bespoke
                                         clothes, bicycles and so on       • there are sufficient
                                                                             land-holders to prevent
                                       • those that can provide              monopolistic/oligopolistic
                                         an attractive experience,           behaviour
                                         particularly where they are
                                         clustered with like shops (and    • the land-use planning regime
                                         this clearly encompasses            is flexible and consistent
                                         urban design issues)
                                                                           All these factors are more or
                                                                           less relevant to retailing in the
                                                                           Southern Grampians Shire,
                                                                           as discussed in the following
                                                                           sections.

20
3. Retailing in the Southern Grampians

This section of the report identifies the existing retail
activity in the Shire and provides estimates of retail
sales and the spending of residents and visitors. These
estimates are used as the basis for retail development
scenarios.

                                       Southern Grampians Retail Strategy   21
3. Retailing in the Southern Grampians cont.

     For the                        Food and groceries –
                                    supermarkets, general
                                                                         • Other goods –, chemists,
                                                                           florists, jewellers, second
     purposes of                    stores, liquor outlets,
                                    specialty food outlets
                                                                           hand goods etc

     this report,                   (butchers, bakers,                   Food service – cafes,
                                                                         restaurants and take-away
                                    greengrocers etc)
     retail activity                                                     food outlets
                                    Non-food goods, comprising
     comprises                                                           Retail services –
                                    • Clothing – clothes, shoes,         hairdressers, beauty
     the following                    manchester                         parlours, video rental

     categories:                    • Household goods –                  For the purposes of the
                                      homeware, hardware,                analysis presented here,
                                      furniture, floor coverings,        retailing excludes selling
                                      curtains and blinds,               of motor vehicles, auto
                                      electronic goods etc               accessories and fuel. It also
                                                                         excludes outlets which are
                                    • Recreational goods -               mainly engaged in wholesale
                                      sporting goods, toys,              sales (that is, sales of goods
                                      bookshops, newsagents              to other businesses). This
                                                                         includes some hardware
                                                                         outlets.

3.1 Retail Activity                 • Total value added –                3.2 Activity Centres and
                                      approximately $40 million          the Retail Hierarchy
The following statistics tell the
broad picture of retailing in the   • Total retail turnover –            Retailers most often congregate
Southern Grampians in 2006 at         approximately $200 million         with other retailers and service
the time of the last Census of                                           providers in activity centres.
Population and Housing.             Retailing is the largest of the      This concentration provides
                                    service industries in the Shire      advantages to consumers, who
• Number of retail businesses –     and the mainstay of the Shire’s      are able to access different
  approximately 250                 activity centres. It provides        services in one trip; to retailers,
                                    services to residents and visitors   who are able to take advantage
• Number of people employed in      and is a key part of the Shire’s     of a larger customer base; and
  retailing – 1,170 or 16% of the   tourism industry.                    to the community as a whole,
  people working in the Shire,                                           which can enjoy infrastructure
  making it the second largest                                           cost savings.
  employer after the agriculture
  and forestry sector

22
3. Retailing in the Southern Grampians cont.

Most communities in Victoria        regional level services and offer      The following table sets out the
are served by a network of          a more complete range of retail        activity centre hierarchy used in
activity centres, with each         goods; smaller, more numerous          this report.
centre performing a different       centres offer localised services
role and providing a different,     and a smaller range of retail
albeit overlapping, set of goods    goods usually providing day-to-
and services. This network is       day groceries and convenience
usually described as a hierarchy:   items.
larger, fewer centres deliver

 Hierarchy of retail activity centres

 Level in the      Retail role                          Relevant example        Typical        Indicative
 hierarchy                                                                      catchment      share
                                                                                population     of retail
                                                                                               spending
                                                                                               in its
                                                                                               catchment
 Capital City      Extensive comparison goods and       Melbourne               1 million      5 to 10%
 Central           services; culture, entertainment;    Central Activities      plus
 Activities        dining. Includes department          District
 District          stores and many specialty stores
 Regional          Extensive comparison goods           Ballarat                100,000        30% to 40%
 centre            and entertainment. Includes                                  plus
                                                        Geelong
                   department store, discount
                   department store, supermarkets
                   and many specialty stores. Also
                   applies to some large specialty
                   centres that cater to an extensive
                   catchment
 Sub-regional      Routine comparison goods as          Warrnambool             30,000 plus    30% to 40%
 centre            well as food and groceries.          CBD
                   Includes discount department
                                                        Warrnambool
                   store, supermarkets and specialty
                                                        Eastern Activity
                   stores. Also applies to some
                                                        Precinct
                   specialty centres that cater to a
                   significant catchment                Mt Gambier
                                                        Horsham
 Community         Food and some comparison goods.      Hamilton                10,000 to      30% to 40%
 centre            Includes supermarkets and                                    30,000
                                                        Portland
                   specialty stores
                                                        Ararat
3. Retailing in the Southern Grampians cont.

3.2 Activity Centres and the Retail Hierarchy CONT.

 Hierarchy of retail activity centres

 Level in the      Retail role                            Relevant example      Typical        Indicative
 hierarchy                                                                      catchment      share
                                                                                population     of retail
                                                                                               spending
                                                                                               in its
                                                                                               catchment
 Neighbour-        Mainly food and groceries and          Coleraine             1,500 -        20% to 35%
 hood centre       other convenience goods and                                  15,000
                                                          Dunkeld
                   services. Includes supermarket(s)
                   and specialty stores                   Balmoral
                                                          Penshurst
 Local centre      Convenience goods. Usually             Cavendish             Up to 1,500    2% to 5%
                   comprises a corner grocery store
                                                          Branxholme
                   and may include take-away food
                   and local services                     Tarrington
                                                          Glen Thompson

Not every area is served by each level of centre in this hierarchy. In Hamilton, for example, there is
no substantial neighbourhood centre. This means that the Hamilton CBD plays a larger than average
role in retail provision for its catchment. This includes some aspects of regional retailing – particularly
extensive specialty shopping - because of the distance to regional or sub-regional centres.

24
3. Retailing in the Southern Grampians cont.

The key activity centres in the Southern Grampians are shown in the map below.

Figure 3: Network of activity centres in the Southern Grampians Shire

Source: Base map from ABS and Google Maps

                                                                    Southern Grampians Retail Strategy   25
3. Retailing in the Southern Grampians cont.

3.3 Description of Centres           Other notable features of the        flexible but consistent planning
                                     centre include:                      regime. Nevertheless, future
3.3.1 Hamilton Town Centre                                                development will rely on willing
                                     • the large areas of vacant land     land-holders.
Hamilton town centre provides a        and car-parking in the centre
wide range of retail, professional     of city blocks                     3.3.2 Coleraine
and community services to the
town and the Shire of Southern       • the magnificent Botanic            Coleraine is a rural service
Grampians. It consists of a            Gardens in the most south          centre with some small
grid of streets in the heart           west of the city blocks            manufacturing, wholesale and
of Hamilton, bounded by                                                   tourism activities. The town
established residential areas, by    • the railway station at the south   centre sits astride the wide
the railway line and by arterial       eastern edge of the CBD, which     Glenelg Highway and provides
roads taking traffic through the       acts as a coach stop but is        neighbourhood convenience
town.                                  not operating as a passenger       goods and services as well as
                                       station since the railway only     sales to travellers. Key activities
Within the town centre, Grey           carries freight                    in the town centre are the
Street is the principal shopping                                          chocolate factory, the Eucalyptus
street and the section of Grey       The town centre has                  Discovery Centre (soon to be
Street between Brown Street          approximately 102,000 sq m of        replaced by an expansion of
and Thompson Street might            non-residential floorspace of        the hospital), several large
be considered the heart of the       which 40,000 sq m is retail and      hotels, professional services,
centre. Grey Street is rather        nearly 5,000 sq m (5% of the         wholesalers and the retail
narrow compared with the             total) is vacant. This is rather     outlets. The retail offer includes
typical main street in other         high vacancy rate but is largely     a small IGA supermarket,
country towns. This provides         due to two or three large vacant     convenience stores and cafes.
for a more intimate experience,      premises, including the former
and is reminiscent of a British or   Mitre 10 building on Lonsdale        Coleraine town centre has
other European town centre.          Street.                              several heritage buildings but
                                                                          many are vacant. The centre
Key retail magnets within            Property in the town centre is       has a total of around 15,800 sq
the centre include three mid         rather tightly held by relatively    m of activity space, of which
to full-sized supermarkets           few property owners. In              2,900 is retail and 2,200 (14% of
(Woolworths, Coles and               addition, the interpretation of      the total) appears to be vacant.
IGA), ALDI, Target Country           building heritage and design         This very high vacancy rate gives
and Permewens Hardware.              by Council has been rather           the centre a rather run-down
Other attractors include the         restrictive in the past. These       feel. However, this appearance
performing arts centre and           factors have led to some             may be misleading since it is
library, several clubs and a         difficulty in undertaking            likely that some of the vacant
number of large hotels.              redevelopment within the centre      premises are being used for low
                                     (that is, land has been expensive    intensity storage or residential
                                     and planning controls have been      purposes.
                                     inflexible). Council is presently
                                     undertaking a structure plan
                                     for the centre which will identify
                                     potential development pathways
                                     for the centre and create a

26
3. Retailing in the Southern Grampians cont.

3.3.3 Penshurst                     judged Victoria’s best Country         and cafe. There is no pharmacist
                                    restaurant by The Age Good Food        or separate butcher or baker.
Penshurst, in the south of the      Guide.
Shire, is a rural service centre.                                          3.3.6 Local and other centres
The town centre is located          The retail offer in the centre is
around a crossroads on the          geared mainly to visitors. There       Local centres, often comprising
Hamilton Highway. The civic         is a grocer but no branded             a single shop such as a milk-bar
and commercial buildings have       supermarket; there is a second-        or general store, are present
a strong heritage character and     hand bookshop but no pharmacy.         in many smaller settlements
many have been refurbished          There are no vacant commercial         and in suburban locations
recently. Key activities in the     buildings in the centre,               around Hamilton. These stores
centre are the Penshurst hotel      indicating a strong demand for         provide an important function
and the Volcano Discovery           commercial space. Total non-           in providing “emergency” or
Centre as well as the civic         residential floorspace in the          last minute supplies for people
infrastructure and the retail and   town centre is approximately           in smaller towns and outlying
rural supplies outlets. Total       3,500 sq m, of which 1,100 sq m        districts, as well as providing a
activity space in the centre        is in retailing.                       community focal point. Centres
amounts to around 4,800 sq m,                                              with a local retail function
of which 1,200 is in retailing      Currently, the road from Dunkeld       include Branxholme, Byaduc,
and 1,100 (or 23%) is apparently    to Halls Gap through the               Cavendish, Glen Thompson and
vacant. This is a very high         Grampians is closed as a result        Tarrington.
vacancy rate and includes           of landslides at the beginning of
several recently refurbished        2011. This situation is expected       Hamilton also has a large format
buildings. The centre has a milk    to continue for some time,             retail precinct on the Glenelg
bar and grocer but no branded       with adverse consequences on           Highway to the north west of
supermarket. Other retail           tourism revenues for the town.         town containing Mitre 10 and
outlets include a hardware store,                                          Retravision as well as various
pharmacy, cafe and several          3.3.5 Balmoral                         automotive and trade supplies
second-hand goods shops.                                                   outlets.
                                    Balmoral is a rural service
3.3.4 Dunkeld                       centre in the north of the
                                    Shire. The town also acts as
Dunkeld is a rural service          a service centre for visitors to
and tourist centre located          the Rocklands Reservoir which
at the foot of Mt Sturgeon,         recent rainfall inflows have
the southernmost tip of the         taken from 10% to 50% capacity.
Grampians. The attractive town      The small but historic town
centre sits astride the Glenelg     centre, located on Glendenning
Highway and contains a mix of       Street, has a mix of convenience
visitor services, rural supplies    retailing, rural supplies and
and civic infrastructure. The       civic infrastructure. Activity
key attraction is the Royal         floorspace in the centre amounts
Mail Hotel which has been           to around 2,600 sq m, of which
extensively refurbished to          around 800 sq m is in retailing.
provide conference centre,          The retail offer includes a
accommodation and a                 small unbranded supermarket,
restaurant which was recently       clothes, toys, second hand goods

                                                                        Southern Grampians Retail Strategy   27
3. Retailing in the Southern Grampians cont.

3.4 Retail Floorspace

The following table provides an
estimate of retail floorspace in
the activity centres throughout
the Shire.
                       centre sqm

                                                                                                                            Grampians
                                       remainder

                                                                      Penshurst
                                                        Coleraine

                                                                                                  Balmoral

                                                                                                                            Southern
                       Hamilton

                                       Hamilton

                                                                                    Dunkeld

                                                                                                               Centres
 Retail type

                                                                                                               Local

                                                                                                                            Total
                       town

                         sq m           sq m          sq m          sq m          sq m           sq m          sq m           sq m
 Food and               11,830           350           880           450            80            200           660          14,450
 groceries
 Non-food               23,030         4,340          1,530          560           480            420             0          30,370
 goods
 Food service            3,670          110            370           160           550            170           370           5,400
 Other retail            1,420            0            160            60             0              0             0          1,640
 services
 Total retail           39,950         4,800          2,940         1,230         1,120           790          1,030         51,850
 Proportion of           77%             9%            6%            2%             2%            2%             2%          100%
 total

Source: Hansen Partnership, 2010; consultant surveys, 2011

Notes: “Hamilton remainder” consists of several corner stores scattered around Hamilton as well as the large Mitre 10 and Retravision on
the Henty Highway at the north-west edge of town. An allowance has been made for a proportion of the floorspace of some hardware stores
to cater for wholesale rather than retail sales. “Local centres” comprise Branxholme, Byaduk, Cavendish, Glenthompson and Tarrington.

Total retail floorspace in the
Shire is approximately 52,000
sq m, of which 40,000 (77%) is
in the Hamilton town centre.
Coleraine has the largest retail
sector of the smaller towns.

28
3. Retailing in the Southern Grampians cont.

3.5 Retail Sales

Given the retail floorspace it is possible to make an estimate of total
retail sales in the Shire using estimates of sales per sq m for the
various retail types. A figure for average sales per sq m is estimated
from industry sources and adjusted for local conditions.

 Estimate of annual retail sales, Southern Grampians Shire, 2010

                               Hamilton town centre                                     Remainder of Shire
                          Retail          Average               Retail           Retail          Average               Retail           Total
 Retail type
                     floorspace          sales per              sales       floorspace          sales per              sales            sales
                                             sq m                                                   sq m
 Food and                  11,830            $7,900              $93.5              2,620           $5,500              $14.4         $107.9
 groceries
 Non-food                  23,040            $3,700              $85.2              7,340           $2,200              $16.1         $101.4
 goods
 Food                        3,670           $4,200              $15.4              1,730           $3,400               $5.9           $21.3
 service
 Retail                      1,420           $2,900               $4.1                220           $2,300               $0.5             $4.6
 services
 Total retail              39,960            $5,000            $198.2             11,910            $3,100              $36.9         $235.2

Source: Hansen Partnership, 2010; Tim Nott

Note: Different sales per sq m have been applied to Hamilton and the remainder of the Shire. This allows for the lower sales per sq m typically
found in smaller centres and in independently owned stores.

The calculation here provides
estimated annual retail sales in
the Southern Grampians Shire
of $235 million in 2010. Of this,
$198 million or 84% is expended
in the Hamilton town centre.

                                                                                                Southern Grampians Retail Strategy            29
4. Retail Demand
4.1 Population

The retail demand in
an area is determined
by the spending of
residents and visitors.
In most areas, the
number of residents
and their spending
power is the key
determinant of demand.

30
4. Retail Demand cont.

In 2010, the estimated resident population of the Southern Grampians Shire was 17,531 according to the
ABS (ABS, 2011). If this estimate is accurate, it marks a slight decline on the previous year and a change
in the recent trend for population growth in the Shire, as shown in the figure below.

Figure 4: Estimated resident population in the Southern Grampians Shire, 1996 to 2010

Source: ABS Regional Population Growth Australia
Note: Figure for 2010 is provisional

The following table provides the estimated
resident population for each of the three
Statistical Local Areas comprising the Shire
(and these are shown in the adjacent map).

                                                      SLAs in Southern Grampians

                                                                      Southern Grampians Retail Strategy   31
4. Retail Demand cont.

4.1 Population CONT.

 Table 4: Estimated resident population, SLAs in the Southern Grampians Shire, 1996 to 2010

                       S. Grampians          S. Grampians          S. Grampians        Southern
                       (S) - Hamilton        (S) - Wannon              (S) Bal      Grampians Shire
 1996                       9,461                 2,670                 5,417            17,548
 1997                       9,468                 2,630                 5,393            17,491
 1998                       9,442                 2,600                 5,359            17,401
 1999                       9,441                 2,556                 5,313            17,310
 2000                       9,366                 2,482                 5,245            17,093
 2001                       9,413                 2,461                 5,258            17,132
 2002                       9,397                 2,437                 5,253            17,087
 2003                       9,387                 2,422                 5,269            17,078
 2004                       9,415                 2,402                 5,274            17,091
 2005                       9,453                 2,397                 5,323            17,173
 2006                       9,436                 2,396                 5,377            17,209
 2007                       9,573                 2,382                 5,438            17,393
 2008                       9,634                 2,372                 5,489            17,495
 2009                       9,670                 2,369                 5,525            17,564
 2010                       9,645                 2,346                 5,540            17,531
 Average annual
 growth 1996 to             0.1%                 -0.9%                  0.2%              0.0%
 2010
 Average annual
 growth 2006 to             0.5%                 -0.5%                  0.7%              0.5%
 2010

These figures show a relatively     and Balmoral) has declined by
slow growth in the Shire as a       0.5% per year, continuing longer
whole over the period since         term decline in the area; and the
2006. The township of Hamilton      balance of the Shire, including
has grown at the same rate          the surrounds of Hamilton, and
as the Shire over the period;       the towns of Penshurst, Dunkeld
however, Wannon (the west of        and Cavendish, has grown at
the Shire including Coleraine       0.7% per year.

32
4. Retail Demand cont.

4.2 RETAIL SPENDING                              is based on the Market Info                       provide estimates of small area
                                                 micro-simulation model which                      spending patterns. Market Info
An estimate of current retail                    uses the ABS Household                            figures have been updated using
spending per person in the                       Expenditure Survey, Census                        recent estimates of State-wide
Southern Grampians is provided                   of Population and Housing                         retail sales provided by the ABS.
in the table below. The estimate                 and other data sources to

    Table 5: Annual retail spending per person, Southern Grampians and Victoria, 20101

    Retail type                          Southern Grampians                                     Victoria        Southern Grampians
                                                          $                                            $      compared with Victoria
                                                                                                                                  %
    Food and groceries                                       $5,000                              $5,200                                  96%
    Non food goods                                           $4,900                              $5,500                                  89%
    Food service                                             $1,500                              $1,800                                  83%
    Retail services                                             $300                                $300                               100%
    Total retail spending                                   $11,700                             $12,800                                  91%

Source: MDS Market Data Systems, 2002 and 2006; Australian Retail Trade, 2011; Tim Nott

    Table 6: Annual retail spending, Southern Grampians residents, 2010

    Retail type                       Annual Retail spending              Total spending by trade             Share of total spending
                                                 per person                        area residents                                  %
                                                           $                                  $m
    Food and groceries                                       $5,000                                $87.7                                 43%
    Non food goods                                           $4,900                                $85.9                                 42%
    Food service                                             $1,500                                $26.3                                 13%
    Retail services                                             $300                                 $5.3                                     3%
    Total retail spending                                   $11,700                              $205.1                                100%

Source: MDS Market Data Systems, 2002; Australian Retail Trade, 2011; Tim Nott

Total retail spending by the                     This figure constitutes the total                 The following section looks at
residents of the Southern                        retail demand by residents.                       the balance of spending in the
Grampians Shire is estimated at                  However, not all of that spending                 Shire made by residents and
$205 million in 2010.                            is made in the Shire.                             visitors.

1
  The figures in this table and subsequent tables have been adjusted compared with figures in the original background report to reflect new
information available to the author.

                                                                                               Southern Grampians Retail Strategy              33
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