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Tasmania Report 2020
EVENT PARTNERS
CONTENTS Executive Summary 2 From the Chair 4 About The Author 6 Tascoss Forward 7 Chapter 1 TASMANIA’S EXPERIENCE OF COVID-19 9 Chapter 2 TASMANIA’S ECONOMY BEFORE THE ONSET OF COVID-19 17 Chapter 3 TASMANIA’S ECONOMY DURING COVID-19 31 Chapter 4 THE ROLE OF GOVERNMENTS AND COMMUNITY ORGANISATIONS 47 Chapter 5 THE TASMANIAN ECONOMY IN THE POST-COVID WORLD 57 Chapter 6 UNRESOLVED QUESTIONS 69
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Covid-19 has brought sickness to Despite all these favourable developments, the
Covid-19 recession appears to have hit Tasmania’s
almost 68 million people around the
economy more severely than that of any other state
world, and death to over 1½ million.
or territory, with the obvious exception of Victoria,
The virus, and the measures deemed with its unique (in the Australian experience) ‘second
necessary by governments to contain wave’ of infections. In particular, Tasmanians have
its spread, have induced what for most encountered greater difficulty in getting back to work
after the job losses incurred during the early part of
countries around the world has been,
the recession, than people anywhere else in Australia
the most severe recession in decades,
other than Victoria.
if not since the Great Depression.
This has not been for any want of effort by
Tasmania has done exceptionally well in managing the Tasmanian Government. The Tasmanian
the health risks posed by the virus, especially once Government has been more generous in the support
allowance is made for the outbreak at the North- it has provided to households and businesses in this
West Regional Hospital (NWRH), which was state than any other state or territory government
subsequently traced to failings which occurred – which it was able to be because it entered the
elsewhere in Australia. Tasmania’s experience pandemic in a stronger financial position, in most
compares favourably not just with other parts of respects, than other state and territory governments.
Australia, but with much of the rest of the world. Support from the Federal Government has also been
Prior to the onset of Covid-19, Tasmania’s economy of crucial importance in ameliorating the economic
had been performing strongly in most respects, damage wrought by the pandemic, while local
both by comparison with its experience earlier in the governments and community organisations have
decade, and with the performance of other states also played vital roles.
and territories. In particular, Tasmania recorded There are no grounds for concern over the magnitude
faster economic growth per capita than any other of the budget deficits which the Tasmanian
state or territory in the two years to 2018-19; its Government expects to incur over the next four years,
unemployment rate had dropped to below the or the debt which it will accumulate as a result.
national average by the March quarter of this year;
The deficits are entirely in accordance with the
and its residential property market had been the
advice given to governments by credible international
strongest in the nation.
agencies, and by Australia’s own Reserve Bank.
Both as a consequence of these and other The debt can be readily serviced at current and
developments, and as a contributor to them, prospective interest rates, and will in any event be
Tasmania’s population growth rate had picked up, smaller relative to the size of Tasmania’s economy
as fewer Tasmanians left to seek more favourable than that of any other state or territory except
opportunities on the mainland, more people moved Western Australia.
from the mainland to Tasmania, and Tasmania
If it needs to, the Tasmanian Government has scope
attracted its largest share of the national overseas
to do more to support the economic recovery process.
migration intake in at least five decades.
2 | T C C I TA S M A N I A R E P O R T 2 0 2 0
The fact that Tasmania’s economy was doing well going There are also other questions which are important for
into the Covid-19 recession, and the State Government Tasmanians to consider.
has provided and will continue to provide significant
Crucial though it has been to the improvement in
fiscal policy support, unfortunately does not guarantee
Tasmania’s economic performance over the past five
that Tasmania will emerge from the recession ahead of,
years, have we now become ‘too dependent’ on tourism,
or more rapidly than, the rest of Australia.
given the challenges which that industry faces as a result
Tasmania’s experience during each of the last three of Covid-19?
recessions, over the past four decades, counsels strongly
Have we become ‘too reliant’ on China as an export
against such hopes. Tasmania’s economy is too small,
market, given the rapid deterioration in the bilateral
too narrowly-based, and too exposed to forces outside
political relationship between Australia and China?
the control of the State Government, or individual
Tasmanian businesses, to be at all confident that this Are we ‘too comfortable’ with the extensive fiscal
piece of history will not repeat itself. support Tasmania receives from the Federal Government
– and if so, what are we prepared to do, including by way
To be sure, the changes wrought by Covid-19, and
of reform to our state tax system, to reduce the risks we
Tasmania’s success in managing them, have opened up
might face if that support were to be lessened?
new opportunities for Tasmania – in particular, as a ‘safe’
place for people to call home, and as a place from which The next State election is now at most only 15 months
new digital technologies, new ways of working or doing or so away. Ideally, between now and then, Tasmania’s
business, can be exploited. political leaders – both those currently in government,
and those who aspire to be – will seek to engage with
But Covid-19 and the recession in its wake have also
Tasmanians on issues such as these, and others, with a
attenuated challenges and vulnerabilities which have
view both to ascertaining what Tasmanians hope for, and
confronted Tasmania for a very long time, and have
what they are prepared to undertake in order to realise
brought new ones.
those hopes, and to persuading Tasmanians to give
In particular, they have brought – or should bring – a them an electoral mandate to implement the changes
renewed focus on the importance of remedying the flaws which will be necessary to address the challenges which
in Tasmania’s education and health systems, which Tasmania faces (both long-standing, and more recently
will be crucial to Tasmania’s success or otherwise in as a result of Covid-19), and to make the most of the
attracting people from other parts of Australia, and the opportunities which now present themselves.
world, as well as retaining more of our own people.
Tasmania didn’t really have that kind of engagement
The growing importance of digital access and skills, as in the lead-up to the last State election in 2018. Having
a means of accessing education, social connections, foregone that opportunity during more prosperous times,
essential services, employment and a growing range it is perhaps to be hoped that the onset of more difficult
of goods, as well as ‘doing business’ – which has been times will be seen as a reason to be bold and imaginative
dramatically accelerated during 2020 – underscores – as it has been in some other states – rather than an
the urgency of addressing the ‘digital divide’, something excuse to ‘hunker down’ and be timid.
which is especially pronounced both between Tasmania
and the rest of Australia, and within Tasmania itself.
T C C I TA S M A N I A R E P O R T 2 0 2 0 | 3
FROM THE CHAIR
PA U L R A N S O N
It is with great pleasure and Tasmanians are the unhealthiest, oldest, worst
educated, most under-employed and most
pride that I introduce this sixth dependent on government benefits in Australia.
Tasmania Report to you. This is not sustainable and if it continues will
condemn a large number of Tasmanians to
The report which is an important annual milestone
unproductive lives with compromised opportunities
in analysing our progress as a community, is only
for employment, personal fulfilment and
possible due to the unique partnership that makes
community engagement. The flow on effects
the funding of the report possible. The powerful
mean increasing health costs, more people who
concept, initiated by the TCCI in 2015, was that a
feel alienated from society, and who in turn,
report combining economic and social aspects of
have no stake in developing communities.
the entire Tasmanian community was essential
to inform debate on strategic goals and policy Traditionally, business has not examined the
implementation for every Tasmanian. TCCI together qualitative indicators of Tasmania’s success
with TasCOSS, Tasplan Super, TPT Wealth, Telstra such as housing, education and health. The TCCI
and media partner The Mercury combine in a believes that the true measure of a successful
partnership that provides key data and independent Tasmania must include improved achievements in
analysis to better inform all Tasmanians. these areas as well as the quantitative indicators
of employment, infrastructure development,
As engaged Tasmanians, we know the significance
levels of taxation and the costs of doing business
of accurate data in measuring and managing key
in an island state with a small decentralised
objectives. We also know the benefits of positive
population, and limited transport options.
relationships with stakeholders who join with us
in striving to achieve a better Tasmania for all, and Entering 2020 Tasmania was enjoying its best
who recognise that prosperity and wellbeing are economic performance in 15 years with our
intrinsically linked at an individual and community performance relative to our mainland peers
level. The significance of economic indicators trending positively. However, March 2020 saw
alone can cloud vision and judgement. The the Covid-19 pandemic arrive in Australia and
combination of social and economic indicators the subsequent disruption due to strict border
informs a fuller appreciation and prompts debate controls, physical distancing, limitations on
about the priorities that Tasmania must set. gatherings and freedom of movement resulted
in a shock to the Tasmanian community from
Of course, the State Government plays a huge
an economic and social perspective.
part in the achievement of community priorities
as does the Australian Government and local While governments, businesses and communities
government, health and education institutions, have pulled together to mitigate the effects of the
industry, businesses, community groups and pandemic and we appear to be on a path to recovery,
individuals all of whom have a responsibility to the return to normal is still some way off and patchy
look beyond self- interest and understand and as international borders are mainly closed and
act for the needs of Tasmania as a whole. restrictions on physical distancing and gatherings
are likely to remain in place until an effective vaccine
has been deployed and taken up by the community.
4 | T C C I TA S M A N I A R E P O R T 2 0 2 0
This year’s edition will focus on the impact of the
pandemic on our economy, as well as opportunities
for recovery moving forward. Of interest will be
understanding whether the recovery can be used
as a catalyst to take bold steps to make changes
that will make significant inroads into improving the
long-term outcomes for the Tasmanian community.
From any crisis there is always opportunity for
communities to learn and grow. For example, the
pandemic has accelerated trends in the shift from
physical to digital and remote work while supporting
local businesses has become more prevalent. While
these are opportunities where we can embed
changes that will benefit society more broadly, care
needs to be taken not to embed disadvantage. In
particular, the shift to digital and remote work
requires communities to have access to affordable
and responsive telecommunications infrastructure
and this is an area where some communities
are inherently disadvantaged at present.
The TCCI envisages Tasmania as the most
successful state in the Commonwealth. The
measures of that success include prosperity
but depend on education standards and good
health and confidence in our institutions.
With the publication of the sixth Tasmania
Report, the TCCI will continue to track
Tasmania’s progress towards the attainment
of improved results in jobs, construction,
exports, new businesses, housing, health
status and educational achievement.
I commend the report to you all.
Paul Ranson
Chair
Tasmanian Chamber of
Commerce and Industry
T C C I TA S M A N I A R E P O R T 2 0 2 0 | 5
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
SAUL ESLAKE
Saul Eslake worked as an economist in the Australian Saul has a first-class honours
financial markets for more than 25 years, including as
degree in Economics from the
Chief Economist at McIntosh Securities (a stockbroking
firm) in the late 1980s, Chief Economist (International) University of Tasmania, and a
at National Mutual Funds Management in the early Graduate Diploma in Applied
1990s, as Chief Economist at the Australia & New
Finance and Investment from the
Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) from 1995 to 2009, and
as Chief Economist (Australia & New Zealand) for Bank Securities Institute of Australia. In
of America Merrill Lynch from 2011 until June 2015. December 2012 he was awarded
He has now established his own independent an Honorary Doctor of Laws degree
economics consultancy business, based in Tasmania,
by the University of Tasmania. He
and has a part-time appointment as a Vice-
Chancellor’s Fellow at the University of Tasmania. He has also completed the AICD’s
served for 10 years on the board of Hydro Tasmania, Company Directors’ Course
and five years as Chair of the Tasmanian Arts Advisory
(with an Order of Merit) and the
Board; and is currently a non-executive director of
the Macquarie Point Development Corporation. He is Senior Executive Program at
also a member of the (Federal) Parliamentary Budget Columbia University’s Graduate
Office’s Advisory Panel, and of the Australian Taxation
School of Business in New York.
Office’s ‘Tax Gap’ project Expert Advisory Panel.
6 | T C C I TA S M A N I A R E P O R T 2 0 2 0
TASCOSS FOREWORD
Have you had a successful 2020?
You may find that a hard question to answer... or The fabric of our society, and indeed our economy, is
perhaps not. 2020 has truly been a year like no other built on people — the volunteer bus drivers ferrying
for each and every one of us. We have had to live people to health appointments, those on the frontline
differently, work differently and connect with each distributing emergency relief hampers to people in
other differently. We have all had to realign the way need, our domestic violence services providing timely,
our lives work and the way we interact with others, and wrap-around support to those fleeing abusive homes
I daresay many of us will now be defining success — during lockdown. Our ever-dependable essential
and perhaps wellbeing — in a different way than we workers stepped up to provide support and assistance
would have back at the start of the year when Covid-19 to Tasmanians. We couldn’t have been in better hands.
was merely a problem for those a 12 hour flight away.
It is our people which have seen us through this crisis.
Many of us, including our Premier, define the success This network of services and support makes up our
of our state as including both the good health of our social infrastructure and is every bit as important as
people and the good health of a strong economy. hard, physical infrastructure.
These two elements are inextricably linked in our
While there was undoubtedly suffering and hardship
minds in ways they may not have been before these
during Covid-19, I think we would all agree that the way
past 12 months.
the government, community service organisations,
Our physical and mental safety and wellbeing were private business and the community as a whole
at the forefront of our state’s and wider community banded together to reach out and support each other
response to the pandemic. And perhaps for the first underpinned our state’s success in the face of extreme
time in decades, it was our collective wellbeing rather disruption.
than the economy alone that drove our decision-
It is TasCOSS’s view that we simply can’t afford to go
making and was the yardstick by which to measure the
back to business as usual, where a fifth of Tasmanian
effectiveness of our Covid-19 response.
children start Year 7 below the national standard for
That raises the question that changing times need us reading, where Tasmania has higher rates of obesity
all to ask: how do we measure success? than any other state or territory, and where too many
Tasmanians don’t have the skills and qualifications
Let’s consider it from a personal perspective: how
needed to take up the jobs of the future.
do you measure your own personal success? Is it the
level of your bank account alone or do you consider In line with the times, we need to start measuring our
other measures like how healthy you are, the quality success in terms of our people as well as the economy,
of your relationships and whether you get to do things just as I suspect you do for yourself and for your family.
you enjoy in life? And now that we’ve started thinking
Our response to the pandemic shows we are capable
about it: how do you measure success for your family?
of doing this. So as we turn our minds and energy to
For your children?
rebuilding Tasmania, I urge you to think about ways
Covid-19 has taught us many lessons. The obvious: we can keep the best of our crisis response — our
wearing the same pair of pyjama bottoms for three collective action to care for those around us — and
weeks’ straight probably isn’t a good idea. And the make it our new normal.
nugget of truth amidst the oddness of it all: as a Adrienne Picone
society we function better when we place our people Chief Executive Officer
at the centre of everything we do and work together TasCOSS
with a common purpose.
T C C I TA S M A N I A R E P O R T 2 0 2 0 | 7
Chapter 1
TASMANIA’S EXPERIENCE
OF COVID-19Chapter 1: Tasmania’s experience of Covid-19
Covid-19 is far from being the most serious pandemic to have afflicted humanity –
Chapter 1:
though it has thus far infected almost 68 million people world-wide and claimed the
TASMANIA’S EXPERIENCE
lives of over 1½ million OF
people, those COVID-19
numbers are smaller both in absolute terms and as
a percentage of the world’s population than those attributable to HIV-AIDS, smallpox,
the so-called ‘Spanish flu’ of 1918-20, and the three ‘great plagues’ of 541-2 (the
‘Justinian’
Covid-19 Plague),
is far from 1347-51
being the (the pandemic
most serious ‘Black Death’) and 1855-1960
to have afflicted (Public
humanity – though Health
it has Online
thus far infected
2020). The H1N1 swine flu infected almost 61 million people between April 2009are
almost 68 million people world-wide and claimed the lives of almost 1½ million people. Those numbers and April
smaller
2010,
both but caused
in absolute fewer
terms and than 12,500
as a percentage deaths
of the (Newman
world’s population 2020).
than those attributable to HIV-AIDS, smallpox,
the so-called ‘Spanish flu’ of 1918-20, and the three ‘great plagues’ of 541-2 (the ‘Justinian’ Plague), 1347-51 (the ‘Black
However, people’s fear of catching the virus, and the actions which governments
Death’) and 1855-1960 (Public Health Online 2020). The H1N1 swine flu infected almost 61 million people between
implemented in order to contain and prevent its spread, have between them
April 2009 and April 2010, but caused fewer than 12,500 deaths (Newman 2020).
prompted the most severe economic downturn, in almost every country in the world,
since the
However, Great
people’s fearDepression
of catching theof theand
virus, 1930s.
the actions which governments implemented in order to contain and
prevent its spread, have between them prompted the most severe economic downturn, in almost every country in the
Tasmania’s experience of covid-19 has been less severe than that of many other places
world, since the Great Depression of the 1930s.
around the world. Indeed, were it not for the outbreak at the North-West Regional
Hospital experience
Tasmania’s – which accounted
of Covid-19 has for
been138
lessconfirmed cases
severe than that (60%
of many otherofplaces
the total
aroundrecorded in
the world. Indeed,
Tasmania) and 10 of the 13 deaths, and which was traced to two passengers who(60%
were it not for the outbreak at the North-West Regional Hospital – which accounted for 138 confirmed cases hadof
originally
the arrived
total recorded in Sydney
in Tasmania) aboard
and 10 of the 13the Ruby
deaths, andPrincess
which was(Walker
traced to two 2020: 253 and
passengers who 266) –
had originally
Tasmania’s infection rate (confirmed cases per 100,000 population) would have been
arrived in Sydney aboard the Ruby Princess (Walker 2020: 253 and 266) – Tasmania’s infection rate (confirmed cases
the
per lowest
100,000 in Australia
population) would (Chart 1.1),
have been theand
lowestitsinfatality
Australiarate
(Chartlower
1.1). Its than
fatalityNew South
rate would Wales’
have (as
been lower
wellNew
than as South
Victoria’s), and
Wales’ (as wellhigher thanand
as Victoria’s), that of other
higher states
than that bystates
of other a margin which
by a margin would
which wouldhave
have been
been consistent
consistent witholder-than-average
with Tasmania’s Tasmania’s older-than-average
population (Chart 1.2). population (Chart 1.2).
Chart 1.1: Confirmed cases per 100,000 population: states and territories
350 Cases per 100,000 population
300
250
200
National
150 average
100
NWRH breakout
50
0
NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas NT ACT
Note: Data up to 7 December. Sources: Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Australia; ABS, National, state and
territory population, March 2020; Walker (2020).
10 | T C C I TA S M A N I A R E P O R T 2 0 2 0Chapter 1:
TASMANIA’S EXPERIENCE OF COVID-19
Chart 1.2: Covid-19 deaths per 100,000 population: states and territories
14 Deaths per 100,000 population
Chart 1.2: Covid-19 deaths per 100,000 population: states and territories
12
14 Deaths per 100,000 population
10
12
8
10
6
8 National
average
4
6 National
NWRH breakout average
2
4
NWRH breakout
0
2
NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas NT ACT
0 Data up to 7 December. Sources: Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Australia; ABS, National, state and
Note:
NSW
territory population, Vic 2020; Qld
March SA
Walker (2020). WA Tas NT ACT
Note: Data up to 7 December. Sources: Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Australia; th
ABS, National, state and
Tasmania has had
territory population, only2020;
March two confirmed
Walker (2020).Covid-19 cases since 15 May, and none at all
since 11th August – during which time Victoria has had over 5,000, New South Wales
Tasmania
over
Tasmania600, has
hasand had
thetwo
had only only
rest oftwo
confirmed confirmed
Australia
Covid-19over Covid-19
300
cases (Chart
since cases
15 May,1.3). since
And
and none 15since
th May, and
Tasmania
at all none
has –had
11 August no
during at all time
which
since
Covid-1911 August
th related – during
deaths which
since 1 sttime
May,Victoria
whereas has had
Victoria over
has 5,000,
had New
801, South
and the Wales
rest of
Victoria has had over 5,000, New South Wales over 600, and the rest of Australia over 300 (Chart 1.3). Tasmania has
Australia
over
had 600, 12.
no Covid-19and thedeaths
related rest ofsince
Australia over 300
1 May, whereas (Chart
Victoria 1.3).
has had 801, And Tasmania
and the has 12.
rest of Australia had no
Covid-19 related deaths since 1 May, whereas Victoria has had 801, and the rest of
st
Chart
Australia1.3:12.
Daily new confirmed Covid-19 cases, Tasmania and Australia -
700 Number (7-day Number (7-day 12
Chart 1.3: Daily new confirmed Covid-19 cases, Tasmania and Australia -
moving moving
600
700 average)
Number (7-day
average)
Number (7-day 12
10
moving Tasmania Australia moving
500
600 average) (left scale) average)
(right scale) 10
8
400 Tasmania Australia
500 (left scale)
(right scale) 8
6
300
400
6
4
200
300
100 4
2
200
0
100 2
0
31 29 31 30 31 30 31 31 30 31 30 31
0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0
31 29 31 30 31 30 31 31 30 31 30 31
Note: Data up to 7 December. Source: Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Australia.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Note: Data up to 7 December. Source: Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Australia.
T C C I TA S M A N I A R E P O R T 2 0 2 0 | 11Chapter
Tasmania’s 1:
success in containing the spread of the virus (after the NWRH outbreak was
TASMANIA’Scontrol)
brought under is largely attributable
EXPERIENCE OF COVID-19to the public health measures instituted by
the Tasmanian Government (including the closure of Tasmania’s borders to interstate
travel) and to the willingness of the Tasmanian people to comply with them (without the
need to resort to the ‘over-the-top’, heavy-handed policing strategies employed in
Tasmania’s success in containing the spread of the virus (after the NWRH outbreak was brought under control) is
Victoria) – although ABS analysis suggests that Tasmania’s restrictions during the
largely attributable to the public health measures instituted by the Tasmanian Government (including the closure of
September quarter were somewhat stricter than those of any other jurisdiction except
Tasmania’s borders to interstate travel) and to the willingness of the Tasmanian people to comply with them (without
New South Wales and, by a very large margin, Victoria (ABS 2020i).
the need to resort to the ‘over-the-top’, heavy-handed policing strategies employed in Victoria), although ABS analysis
Data on
suggests thatindividual mobility compiled
Tasmania’s restrictions by Apple
during the September andwere
quarter Google alsostricter
somewhat atteststhanto Tasmania’s
those of any other
restrictions
jurisdiction having
except been
New South a little
Wales more
and, by a verysevere thanVictoria
large margin, those(ABS
in other states
2020i). and territories, on
average, with the exception of Victoria (especially during its ‘second wave’) (Charts
Data on individual mobility compiled by Apple and Google also attests to Tasmania’s restrictions having been a little
1.4a and b). The Apple indicators clearly show mobility in Tasmania falling by more, and
more severe than those in other states and territories, on average, with the exception of Victoria (especially during
recovering more slowly and by less in total, than the Australian average, even though
its ‘second wave’) (Charts 1.4a and b). The Apple indicators clearly show mobility in Tasmania falling by more, and
the latter was weighed down by Victoria during that state’s ‘second wage’. The
recovering more slowly and by less in total, than the Australian average, even though the latter was weighed down by
Google indicators show mobility in Tasmania tracking more closely in line with the
Victoria during that state’s ‘second wage’. The Google indicators show mobility in Tasmania tracking more closely in line
national average, and exceeding it between mid-July and mid-October: although it
with the national average, and exceeding it between mid-July and mid-October: although it should be noted that during
should be noted that during this period the corresponding measure for Victoria was
this period the corresponding measure for Victoria was consistently tracking 20-30 points below the national average,
consistently tracking 20-30 points below the national average, so that the indicator for
so that the indicator
Tasmania would for have
Tasmania would
been have been
below thebelow the corresponding
corresponding averagefor
average for Australia
Australia excluding Victoria, if
excluding
itVictoria, if ittowere
were possible possible
calculate one. to calculate one.
Chart 1.4a: Apple mobility indicators, Chart 1.4b: Google mobility indicators,
Tasmania and Australia Tasmania and Australia
120 7-day moving average 20 7-day moving average
(13 January = 100) (deviation from 14 February)
110 10
100 0
Australia
90 Tasmania
-10
80
-20
70
-30
60 Australia
-40
50 Tasmania
40 -50
30 -60
20 -70
31 Dec 31 Mar 30 Jun 30 Sep 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Mar 30 Jun 30 Sep 31 Dec
Note: The Apple mobility indicators are averages of the separately reported indexes for driving, transit and
walking; the Google mobility indicators are averages of separately reported indexes for time in workplaces,
time spent in transit, and time spent in retail or recreation. Sources: Apple, Mobility Trends Reports; Google,
Covid-19 Community Mobility Reports.
12 | T C C I TA S M A N I A R E P O R T 2 0 2 0Tasmania’s relatively good performance in managing the virus probably also owes
something to our island status, which made measures such as border closures easier to
implement than in jurisdictions which share sub-national or national land borders with
their neighbours.
Chapter 1:
With some obvious exceptions – such as the UK and Ireland, or, closer to home,
TASMANIA’S EXPERIENCE OF COVID-19
Indonesia and the Philippines – islands, whether independent nations or constituents of
larger nations – have typically managed to achieve better outcomes (lower case
numbers and fewer deaths as proportions of their populations) than other nations or
Tasmania’s relatively good performance in managing the virus probably also owes something to our island status,
states, provinces etc.
which made measures such as border closures easier to implement than in jurisdictions which share sub-national or
Tasmania’s performance in managing the virus also compares well with that of most
national land borders with their neighbours.
other islands – about the same as the two islands to whom we are perhaps most similar,
Canada’s
With Newfoundland
some obvious and
exceptions – such Prince
as the UK and Edward Island;
Ireland, or, rather
closer to home, better than
Indonesia thePhilippines
and the islands of
– islands,
the Mediterranean
whether or the
independent nations North Atlantic;
or constituents but not
of larger nations as good
– have asmanaged
typically the islands of the
to achieve South
better outcomes
Pacific
(lower case(Charts
numbers1.5
andand
fewer1.6).
deaths as proportions of their populations) than other nations or states, provinces etc.
Tasmania’s performance in managing the virus also compares well with that of most other islands – about the same as
It’s important to note that Tasmania’s experience could have been much worse than it
the two islands to whom we are perhaps most similar, Canada’s Newfoundland and Prince Edward Island; rather better
turned out to be, had the Tasmanian Government and Tasmanian people made
than the islands of the Mediterranean or the North Atlantic; but not as good as the islands of the South Pacific (Charts
different choices.
1.5 and 1.6).
Chart 1.5: Confirmed Covid-19 cases per 100,000 – island nations, states and provinces
2,750 Cases per 100,000 population
2,500
2,250
2,000
1,750
1,500
1,250
1,000
750
500
250
0
United Kingdom
Gotland (Sweden)
Malta
Iceland
Ireland
Faroe Islands
Cyprus
Singapore
Hawaii (island)
Maui
Falklands
Philippines
Shetland
Hebrides
Indonesia
Hokkaido
Orkney
Sri Lanka
Sardinia
Sicily
Newfoundland
Prince Edward Is.
Tasmania
New Zealand
Greenland
New Caledonia
Fiji
Taiwan
Solomon Islands
Samoa
Vanuatu
Tonga
Note: Data up to 6 December 2020. Sources: Our World in Data; Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus
Resource Center; Public Health Scotland; World Health Organization Western Pacific Region; Worldometer.
T C C I TA S M A N I A R E P O R T 2 0 2 0 | 13Chapter 1:
TASMANIA’S EXPERIENCE OF COVID-19
Chart 1.6: Covid-19 related deaths per 100,000 – island nations, states and provinces
100 Deaths per 100,000 population
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
United Kingdom
Gotland (Sweden)
Malta
Iceland
Ireland
Faroe Islands
Cyprus
Singapore
Hawaii (island)
Maui
Falklands
Philippines
Shetland
Hebrides
Indonesia
Hokkaido
Orkney
Sri Lanka
Sardinia
Sicily
Newfoundland
Prince Edward Is.
Tasmania
New Zealand
Greenland
New Caledonia
Fiji
Taiwan
Solomon Islands
Samoa
Vanuatu
Tonga
Note: Data up to 6 December 2020. Sources: Our World in Data; Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus
Resource Center; Public Health Scotland; World Health Organization Western Pacific Region; Worldometer.
Modelling
It’s undertaken
important to at theexperience
note that Tasmania’s University of have
could Tasmania suggested,
been much worse than in the absence
it turned of the
out to be, had
actions of
Tasmanian the sort and
Government that were actually
Tasmanian taken,
people made the choices.
different number of infections could have
peaked at over 125,000 (23% of Tasmania’s population), with over 53,000 people
Modelling undertaken at the University of Tasmania suggested, in the absence of actions of the sort that were actually
requiring hospitalization and, of them, almost 21,000 requiring ICU treatment, and more
taken, the number of infections could have peaked at over 125,000 (23% of Tasmania’s population), with over 53,000
than 5,900 deaths (University of Tasmania 2020: 10).
people requiring hospitalization and, of them, almost 21,000 requiring ICU treatment, and more than 5,900 deaths
There really is no trade-off between measures aimed at containing the spread of the
(University of Tasmania 2020: 10).
virus and ‘the economy’ (or, as it has sometimes been portrayed, between ‘lives’ and
‘livelihoods’).
There really is no trade-off between measures aimed at containing the spread of the virus and ‘the economy’ (or, as it
has sometimes been portrayed, between ‘lives’ and ‘livelihoods’). If the virus starts spreading rapidly, a majority of the
If the virus starts spreading rapidly, a majority of the population will voluntary abstain
population will voluntarily abstain from doing things that public health restrictions would otherwise legally constrain
from doing things that public health restrictions would otherwise legally constrain them
them from doing. This has been demonstrated in Sweden, where the government has chosen not to impose severe
from doing.This has been demonstrated in Sweden, where the government has chosen
restrictions on the movement and gathering of people but people have nonetheless observed ‘social distancing’
not to impose severe restrictions on the movement and gathering of people but people
behaviours voluntarily, and where epidemiological outcomes have been worse but economic outcomes no better than
have nonetheless observed ‘social distancing’ behaviours voluntarily, and where
inepidemiological
neighbouring countries which have have
outcomes imposed more stringent
been worse butrestrictions
economic(Edmond et al 2020).no
outcomes It isbetter
also apparent
than from
in
ABS surveys indicating that Australians will continue to avoid what they perceive
neighbouring countries which have imposed more stringent restrictions (Edmond et alto be ‘risky’ activities (such as catching
public
2020).transport or planes, or attending large gatherings) even after they are allowed to do so, until a vaccine arrives or
becomes widely available (which may be 12 months after arrival) (ABS 2020a).
It is also apparent from ABS surveys indicating that Australians will continue to avoid
what they perceive to be ‘risky’ activities (such as catching public transport or planes,
or attending large gatherings) even after they are allowed to do so, until a vaccine
arrives or becomes widely available (which may be 12 months after arrival)
(ABS 2020a).
14 | T C C I TA S M A N I A R E P O R T 2 0 2 0Chapter 1:
TASMANIA’S EXPERIENCE OF COVID-19
The International Monetary Fund’s most recent World Economic Outlook notes that “the importance of social
distancing as a contributor to the downturn suggests that lifting lockdowns is unlikely to rapidly bring economic activity
back to potential if health risks remain … economies will continue to operate below potential while health risks persist,
even if lockdowns are lifted” (IMF 2020: 66).
That’s why keeping the virus at bay, until an effective vaccine becomes widely available, will be crucial to Tasmania’s
economic recovery – as it will be to economic recovery everywhere else in Australia and around the world. It continues
to be of vital importance that people comply with public health regulations – including any stricter ones which the
Government may need to re-impose in the event of any renewed outbreaks.
It would also be helpful to maintaining public compliance with public health regulations if the Government were to
make public, all of the public health advice on which the regulations and restrictions it imposes is based – so that the
public can understand the reasons why they can’t do various things, and to allay any suspicions that some restrictions
might be based on anything other than public health advice.
There really is no reason why the public health advice to governments shouldn’t be made publicly available, in full.
It’s not for governments to decide whether people might be ‘scared’ if they knew the ‘worst case scenarios’ that they
(governments) have had to contemplate.
Unlike the rationale for not making public the advice from security agencies on which counter-terrorism decisions are
based (ie, that making such advice public would signal to would-be terrorists what security agencies know about
them, and possibly how they came to know it), it’s not as if coronaviruses are sitting around watching the regular media
briefings by public health officers, and based on what they see and hear from them, adapting their plans as to which
parts of the community to infect next accordingly.
On the contrary, knowing that the restrictions which governments have imposed are solely based on public health
advice – rather than, as was the case with the night-time curfews imposed in Victoria during its ‘second wave’, being
imposed in order to make it easier for the police to impose fines on people (Rooney and Rose) – would help to ensure
high rates of compliance.
Since there’s no apparent reason to think the same thing has occurred in Tasmania, there should be no reason for the
Government to fear any embarrassment that might accrue from making all of the health advice publicly available.
Likewise, where Tasmania maintains restrictions on certain activities which differ from those in other states or territories
with similar health circumstances (such as Tasmania’s so-called ‘vertical drinking’ ban), there should be an obligation
on the Government to explain clearly the reasons for those differences.
T C C I TA S M A N I A R E P O R T 2 0 2 0 | 15Chapter 2
TASMANIA’S ECONOMY BEFORE
THE ONSET OF COVID-191
Chapter
Chapter 2:
2: Tasmania’s economy before the onset of Covid-19
TASMANIA’S ECONOMY BEFORE THE ONSET OF COVID-19
Tasmania’s economy was travelling well, both by comparison with its own performance
earlier in the decade and with the contemporaneous performance of other states and
territories’ economies, in the years immediately prior to the onset of the pandemic.
Tasmania’s economy was travelling well, both by comparison with its own performance earlier in the decade and with
Over
the the two years
contemporaneous to 2018-19,
performance Tasmania’s
of other real gross
states and territories’ state in
economies, product
the years grew at anprior
immediately average
to the
annual
onset of therate of 3.2%,
pandemic. the strongest multi-year performance since the years immediately
before the global financial crisis, well above the national average for the same period
Over the two years to 2018-19, Tasmania’s real gross state product (GSP) grew at an average annual rate of 3.2%,
of 2.5% per annum, and better than any other jurisdiction except Victoria and the
the strongest multi-year performance since the years immediately before the global financial crisis, well above the
Australian Capital Territory (Chart 2.1). Per capita, Tasmania’s growth rate of 2.1% per
national average for the same period of 2.5% per annum, and better than any other jurisdiction except Victoria and
annum over the two years to 2018-19 was the fastest of any state or territory, and more
the Australian Capital Territory (Chart 2.1). Per capita, Tasmania’s growth rate of 2.1% per annum over the two years to
than double the national average of 0.9% per annum.
2018-19 was the fastest of any state or territory, and more than double the national average of 0.9% per annum.
Measured real GSP growth in 2019-20 was adversely affected by the onset of the
Measured real GSP growth in 2019-20 was adversely affected by the onset of the pandemic in the last three and a half
pandemic in the last three and a half months of the most recent financial year: but
months of the most recent financial year: but even so, Tasmania’s growth rate of 0.3% was better than that of any
even so, Tasmania’s growth rate of 0.3% was better than that of any other state except
other state except Western Australia, and compares with a contraction in the national economy of 0.2%.
Western Australia, and compares with a contraction in the national economy of 0.2%.
Chart 2.1: Growth in real gross state product (GSP), states and territories
6 Real % change from
previous financial year
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas NT ACT
2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20
Note: The Northern Territory’s growth rate in 2019-20 was inflated by a 40% increase in mining output, which
was in turn largely attributable to the transition to full production of the Ichthys LNG plant. Excluding mining,
the Northern Territory’s real GSP declined by 4.2% in 2019-20. Source: ABS (2020f).
Other dimensions of economic performance also show Tasmania doing well in the
Other dimensions of economic performance also show Tasmania doing well in the period before the onset of Covid-19.
period before the onset of Covid-19.
Over the three years to the March quarter of this year, employment in Tasmania grew at an average annual rate of
Over the three years to the March quarter of this year, employment in Tasmania grew
2.4%, only 0.1 percentage point below the national average, and ahead of South Australia, Western Australia, the
at an average annual rate of 2.4%, only 0.1 percentage point below the national
Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory (Chart 2.2) – although only 43% of that growth was in full-time
average, and ahead of South Australia, Western Australia, the Northern Territory and
employment, by far the lowest proportion of any state or territory.
the Australian Capital Territory (Chart 2.2) – although only 43% of that growth was in full-
time employment, by far the lowest proportion of any state or territory.
18 | T C C I TA S M A N I A R E P O R T 2 0 2 0Chapter 2:
TASMANIA’S ECONOMY BEFORE THE ONSET OF COVID-19
2
Chart 2.2: Employment growth, March quarter 2017 to March quarter 2020, states and
territories
4 % per annum
National
3 average
2
1 $16.4K
0
-1
-2
-3
NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas NT ACT
Source: ABS (2020e).
Tasmania’s unemployment rate fell by 0.5 percentage points over this period, only
Tasmania’s unemployment rate fell by 0.5 percentage points over this period, only marginally less than the national
marginally less than the national average, and by March this year had fallen to 4.9%,
average, and by March this year had fallen to 4.9%, the lowest it had been in 11 years, and lower than in any other
the lowest it had been in eleven years, and lower than in any other jurisdiction except
jurisdiction except New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory.
New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory.
More importantly, this occurred in the context of a rising labour force participation rate – in other words, it wasn’t due,
More importantly, this occurred in the context of a rising labour force participation rate
either in whole or in part, to people ‘dropping out’ of the labour force – so that the proportion of Tasmania’s working age
– in other words, it wasn’t due, either in whole or in part, to people ‘dropping out’ of the
population who were in work rose by 1.8 percentage points over the three years to the first quarter of 2020, more than
labour force – so that the proportion of Tasmania’s working age population who were in
in any other state or territory except New South Wales, and more than the national average of 1.5 percentage points
work rose by 1.8 percentage points over the three years to the first quarter of 2020,
(although it remained the lowest of any state or territory, and 4.2 percentage points below the national average).
more than in any other state or territory except New South Wales, and more than the
nationalrelatively
Tasmania’s averagestrongofemployment
1.5 percentage
growth inpoints
the years(although
leading up toit the
remained
pandemic the lowest
was in ofpart
no small anya result
ofstate or territory,
a generally and 4.2
buoyant business percentage
environment duringpoints below
this period, in turnthe national
generating high average).
levels of business confidence.
OnTasmania’s relatively
average over the strong
three years employment
to February growth
2020, ‘business in the
conditions’, as years leading
measured up to the
by the National Australia Bank’s
pandemic
well was in
regarded monthly no small
business part
survey, wereaadjudged
result ofmore
a generally
favourable inbuoyant business
Tasmania than in any environment
other state or territory,
during
and this period,
considerably in turn than
more favourably generating high
the national levels
average of 2.3a).
(Chart business confidence.
AsOn average
a result, over
‘business the three
confidence’ years to
in Tasmania, February
though 2020,
lower than ‘business
in South Australiaconditions’, as measured
or Western Australia during this
by the
period, wasNational
higher thanAustralia
in any otherBank’s well regarded
state or territory monthly
and well above business survey,
adjudged
the national average (Chart were
2.3b).
more favourable in Tasmania than in any other state or territory, and considerably more
favourably than the national average (Chart 2.3a).
As a result, ‘business confidence’ in Tasmania, though lower than in South Australia or
Western Australia during this period, was higher than in any other state or territory and
well above the national average (Chart 2.3b).
T C C I TA S M A N I A R E P O R T 2 0 2 0 | 19Chapter 2:
TASMANIA’S ECONOMY BEFORE THE ONSET OF COVID-19
3
3
Chart
Chart 2.3a:
2.3a: ‘Business
‘Business conditions’,
conditions’, 3
3 years
years Chart
Chart 2.3b:
2.3b: ‘Business
‘Business confidence’,
confidence’, 3
3 years
years
to February 2020, states
to February 2020, states to February 2020, states
to February 2020, states
18
18 Net
Net balance
balance (%)
(%) 9
9 NetNet balance
balance (%)
(%)
16
16 8
8
14
14 7
7
National
National National
National
12
12 average
average 6
6 average
average
10
10 5
5
8
8 4
4
6
6 3
3
4
4 2
2
2
2 1
1
0
0 0
0
NSW
NSW Vic
Vic Qld
Qld SA
SA WA
WA Tas
Tas NSW
NSW Vic
Vic Qld
Qld SA
SA WA
WA Tas
Tas
Source:
Source: National
National Australia
Australia Bank
Bank (2020).
(2020).
In similar vein, retail sales grew more strongly in Tasmania than in any other state or
In In similar
similar vein,vein, retail
retail sales sales
grew grew
more more
strongly strongly
in Tasmania ininTasmania
than than
any other state in anyover
or territory other stateyears
the three or to
territory
territory over
overofthe
the three years to the
the March quarter of this
this year (Chart 2.4a); while, in in a
the March quarter thisthree years
year (Chart to while,
2.4a); March quarter
in a declining ofnationally,
market yearmotor
(Chart 2.4a);
vehicle saleswhile,
fell by less a
in
declining
declining market
market nationally,
nationally, motor
motor vehicle
vehicle sales
sales fell
fell by
by less
less in
in Tasmania
Tasmania over
over the
the same
same
Tasmania over the same period than in any other jurisdiction except the Australian Capital Territory (Chart 2.4b).
period than
period than inin any
any other
other jurisdiction
jurisdiction except
except the the Australian
Australian Capital
Capital Territory
Territory (Chart
(Chart 2.4b).
2.4b).
Chart
Chart 2.4a:
2.4a: Growth
Growth in
in retail
retail sales,
sales, 3
3 years
years Chart
Chart 2.4b:
2.4b: Growth
Growth in
in motor
motor vehicle
vehicle sales,
sales, 3
3
to
to March
March quarter
quarter 2020
2020 years
years to
to March
March quarter
quarter 2020
2020
6
6 % 8
8 %
% per
per annum
annum % per
per annum
annum
6
6
5
5 4
4
National
National 2
2
4
4 average
average 0
0
3 -2
-2
3
-4
-4
2
2 -6
-6
-8 National
National
-8
1
1 average
average
-10
-10
0 -12
-12
0
NSW NSW Vic Qld
NSW Vic Qld SA
SA WA
WA Tas
Tas NT
NT ACT
ACT
NSW Vic Qld SA
Vic Qld SA WA
WA Tas
Tas NT
NT ACT
ACT
Sources:
Sources: ABS
ABS (2020l);
(2020l); Federal
Federal Chamber
Chamber of
of Automotive
Automotive Industries
Industries (2020).
(2020).
20 | T C C I TA S M A N I A R E P O R T 2 0 2 0Chapter 2:
4
TASMANIA’S ECONOMY BEFORE THE ONSET OF COVID-19
Tasmania’s construction sector had been doing particularly well prior to the onset of
Covid-19.
Tasmania’s Dwelling
construction commencements
sector in the well
had been doing particularly year ended
prior March
to the onset 2020 were
of Covid-19. 45% higher
Dwelling
than they had
commencements been
in the threeMarch
year ended years2020
earlier: the only
were 45% higherother
than theyjurisdictions where
had been three residential
years earlier: the only other
jurisdictions where residential building commencements were higher in the year to March than they had been three
building commencements were higher in the year to March than they had been three
years previously were South Australia and the Australian Capital Territory, and there by
years previously were South Australia and the Australian Capital Territory, and there by only 1% and 3%, respectively;
only 1% and 3%, respectively; the national
the national total was down by 22% (Chart 2.5a).
total was down by 22% (Chart 2.5a).
Reflecting
Reflecting that,
that, the realthe
valuereal valuework
of housing of housing work done
done in Tasmania in Tasmania
during the during
year ended March wasthe
33%year ended
higher than it
March
had been inwas 33%years
the three higher than
to March it had
2017, been
whereas overin the
the three
same years
period to March
the value 2017,
of residential whereas
building over
work done
the same
nationally period
declined the
by 8% value
(Chart of
2.5b). residential building work done nationally declined by 8%
(Chart 2.5b).
Chart 2.5a: Growth in residential building Chart 2.5b: Growth in real value of
commencements, year ended March 2017 residential construction work, year ended
to year ended March 2020 March 2017 to year ended March 2020
50 % change 40 % change
40 30
30
20
20
10
10
0 0
-10 -10
-20
-20
-30 National
National -30 average
-40
average
-50 -40
NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas NT ACT NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas NT ACT
Source: ABS (2020d).
The
The picture
picture for commercial
for commercial construction
construction is more mixed. is
Themore mixed.
volume The volume
of non-residential of non-residential
building work done in Tasmania
in building work
the year ended done
March in was
2020 Tasmania in thethan
only 6% higher year ended
three March substantially
years previously, 2020 was only 6% the
less than higher than
increases
three inyears
recorded previously,
New South substantially
Wales, Victoria and Southless thanand
Australia, thewell
increases
below the recorded in New
national average South
of 21% (Chart 2.6a).
Wales,
This largely Victoria and South
reflects declines over thisAustralia,
period in theand
valuewell below
of shop theconstruction,
and office national average
which haveof 21%offset
partly (Chart
strong
2.6a).
growth This largelyofreflects
in construction industrial declines over this period
premises (warehouses in the
and factories), value of shop
entertainment and office
and recreational facilities,
construction,
schools and hotels. which have partly offset strong growth in construction of industrial
premises (warehouses and factories), entertainment and recreational facilities, schools
On the other hand, the volume of engineering construction work done in Tasmania in the year to March was 24%
and hotels.
higher than it had been three years previously, a figure exceeded only in Victoria and (marginally) New South Wales,
On
and the other
compared withhand,
a declinethe volume
in the nationalof engineering
average construction
of 3%, driven by large falls inwork done in
the ‘resources Tasmania
states’ in
of Western
the year
Australia, to March
Queensland and was 24% higher
the Northern Territorythan
(Chartit 2.6b).
had Bybeen three
far the years
biggest previously,
contributor a figure
to this growth has been
exceeded
private only ingeneration
sector electricity Victoriaand
and (marginally)
transmission New South
(in particular Wales,
wind farms), andby
followed compared
public sector with
watera
storage
decline
and in the
national average of 3%, driven by large falls in the ‘resources states’ of
supply work.
Western Australia, Queensland and the Northern Territory (Chart 2.6b). By far the biggest
T C C I TA S M A N I A R E P O R T 2 0 2 0 | 215
Chapter 2:
TASMANIA’S ECONOMY
contributor to this BEFORE
growth has been private THE
sector ONSET
electricity OF COVID-19
generation and
transmission (in particular wind farms), followed by public sector water storage and
supply work.
Chart 2.6a: Growth in real value of non- Chart 2.6b: Growth in real value of
residential work, year ended March 2017 engineering construction work, year ended
to year ended March 2020 March 2017 to year ended March 2020
50 % change 45 % change
40 30
National
30 average 15
20
0
10 National
-15
0 average
-30
-10
-45
-20
-30 -60
-40 -75
-50 -90
NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas NT ACT NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas NT ACT
Source: ABS (2020d and b).
Tasmania’s residential property market was the strongest-performing of any state or
Tasmania’s residential property market was the strongest-performing of any state or territory over the three years to
territory over the three years to March 2020 – both in Hobart (by comparison with other
March 2020 – both in Hobart (by comparison with other capital cities) and elsewhere in Tasmania (by comparison
capital cities) and elsewhere in Tasmania (by comparison with non-metropolitan
with non-metropolitan regions of other states and territories). In March, house prices in Hobart were higher, on average,
regions of other states and territories). In March, house prices in Hobart were higher, on
than those in Adelaide or Perth, and only 5% less than in Brisbane – all three of which are much bigger cities than
average, than those in Adelaide or Perth, and only 5% less than in Brisbane – all three of
Hobart (Chart 2.7a); while house prices in regional Tasmania were 10% and 28% higher than those in regional South
which are much bigger cities than Hobart; while house prices in regional Tasmania were
Australia and Western Australia, respectively (Chart 2.7b).
10% and 28% higher than those in regional South Australia and Western Australia,
respectively.
22 | T C C I TA S M A N I A R E P O R T 2 0 2 0Chapter 2:
TASMANIA’S ECONOMY BEFORE THE ONSET OF COVID-19
6
Chart 2.7a: Change in capital city residential Chart 2.7b: Change in regional residential
property prices, 3 years to March 2020 property prices, 3 years to March 2020
25 25 % change
% change
20 20
15 Average of eight 15
capital cities Average of all
10 10 non-capital city
regions
5 5
0 0
-5 -5
-10 -10
-15 -15
-20 -20
SYD MEL BNE ADL PER HBA DRW CBR NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas NT
Note: percentage changes are in hedonic home value indices which adjusts for differences in the
attributes of properties transacted from month to month. Source: CoreLogic (2020).
The
The volume
volume of residential
of residential property transactions
property transactions had
had held up better held upthan
in Tasmania better in Tasmania
anywhere else exceptthan
the
anywhere
Australian else
Capital except
Territory, the by
declining Australian Capital
6.3% over the Territory,
year ended declining
March 2020, by with
compared 6.3%a 14.6%
over decline
the year to
the twelve
nationally. months ended March 2020, compared with a 14.6% decline nationally.
While
While the the strength
strength of the Tasmanian
of the Tasmanian property
property market market
was a boon was a boon
for home-owners for home-owners
and investors, there were and
investors,
downsides, there
both were downsides,
for would-be both
first-time buyers forthose
and for would-be first-time
unable to buyers
purchase their own and
homefor
andthose
instead having
(orunable totopurchase
choosing) rent. their own home and instead having (or choosing) to rent.
The
The number
number of housing
of housing loans to buyers
loans to first-home first-home buyers
in Tasmania rosein
byTasmania rose
24% between bymonths
the 12 24% between the
ended March
twelve
2017 months
and the ended
12 months March
ended March 2017
2020, welland
belowthe
the twelve months
national average ended
increase March
of 33%: and 2020, well
the share of total
belowloans
mortgage the national
taken out byaverage
first-home increase of 33%:in and
buyers in Tasmania the 12the share
months of total
to March was, mortgage
at 18.7%, lowerloans
than in any
taken
other stateout by first-home
or territory except Newbuyers in Tasmania
South Wales and South in the twelve
Australia, months
and below to March
the national averagewas, at(ABS
of 20%
18.7%,
2020h). lower than in any other state or territory except New South Wales and South
Australia, and below the national average of 20% (ABS 2020h).
Residential rents rose by 21.5% in Hobart over the three years to March 2020, far and away the largest increase of any
Residential
capital rents eight
city and almost rosetimes
by 21.5% in Hobart
the average of 2.7% over the three
for all capital cities years to March
(Chart 2.8a); while in2020, far
regional and
Tasmania
away the
residential rentslargest increase
rose by 13.3% ofsame
over the anyperiod,
capital city
more and
than almost
in the regionaleight times
areas of every the
otheraverage
state – andof
for that
2.7%more
matter for all
thancapital cities
in any other (Chart
state 2.8a);
or territory’s while
capital cityin regional
(Chart 2.8b). Tasmania residential
By March 2020, rents
houses cost more rose
to rentby
in
13.3%
Hobart; in over the same
comparison, that is period,
30% moremore
than inthan
Perth,in the
25% regional
more areas of
than in Adelaide, every
16½% other
more state
than in – and
Brisbane, and
for that
12½% matter
more than more than
in Melbourne inwith
– cities any(respectively)
other state or six,
nine, territory’s capital
11 and 22 times city people
as many (Chart as2.8b).
Hobart. By
March 2020, houses cost more to rent in Hobart; in comparison, that is 30% more than in
By 2019, considering household incomes, Hobart had become the “least affordable capital city in Australia”, and
Perth, 25% more than in Adelaide, 16½% more than in Brisbane, and 12½% more than in
regional Tasmania “the least affordable of rest of state areas” for renters (SGS 2019: 42 and 44).
Melbourne – cities with (respectively) nine, six, eleven and twenty-two times as many
people as Hobart.
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