The Butlins Future Report - A study of how the changing shape of British families will impact on holidaying in 25 years time - Trajectory Partnership
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
The Butlins
Future Report
A study of how the changing shape of
British families will impact on
holidaying in 25 years time
Contents Introduction Page 1 Rise of the Relation Vacation Page 2 Expanding for Generation Xtra Page 5 New Breed of Super-Gs Page 10 3D Dads Page 13 Leisure Economy Page 16 Conclusion Page 19 Butlins: Evolving the Experience Page 20 Contact Details Page 21
Introduction
The Butlins Future Report looks forward 25 years to examine the exciting potential of British holidays
and family fun in 2037.
Having just celebrated our 75th birthday, our research comes as we prepare to launch the most
ambitious hotel in Butlins history – Wave Hotel & Apartments at Bognor Regis. To celebrate this we
wanted to take our insight to a new level and understand what family life could be like when we
reach our 100th birthday.
This report isn’t about hovering hotel rooms and robot-run resorts. When it comes to holidaying in
Britain, our research highlights that intergenerational re-connection breaks, offering the chance to
create sparkling memories, will become increasingly fundamental to family life by 2037.
Our own Butlins insight team worked with Trajectory, UK trend forecasters, to assess the changing
shape and needs of families in 25 years time and identify emerging lifestyle trends which will impact
on how we holiday in the future. This is underpinned by quantitative research amongst young
people, parents and grandparents on their hopes and aspirations for family time in the future. To add
to this, we’ve also asked young future-gazers to tell us what they want from their hotel of the future.
From our modest start in 1936 we have continually evolved to fulfil and exceed expectations of British
families, whilst remaining true to our fundamental intent of bringing families together to share quality
time and great holiday memories. And our research shows that exciting times lie ahead.
Increased life expectancy, bigger, more geographically dispersed, families and shifting roles will
redefine the way millions of Britons holiday in 2037. And whilst technology will play a part in keeping
in touch, re-connection breaks across generations will become commonplace in Britain’s holidaying
culture.
Back in 1936, our founder, Sir Billy Butlin, was way ahead of the times when he developed his first
resort in Skegness. 75 years on, Butlins continues to evolve to surprise families. This July sees the
launch of Wave, specially designed for tweens and their families, but what’s next?
The Butlins Future Report shares unique insight into the future of family holidaying.
Mark Hunter
Director of Happiness, Butlins
The Butlins Future Report Page 1
Rise of the Relation Vacation
Increased life expectancy, shifting grandparent roles and more complex family structures will
drastically redefine the way millions of Britons holiday in the future.
By 2037, Relation Vacations combining up to 14 family members and four generations spanning an
entire century will be commonplace when it comes to planning breaks.
In 25 years time when Britain will be populated with an extra 1.2 million children, six million more
grandparents and a further 1.5 million great-grandparents, the typical family of the future will be:
• Two great-grandparents
• Four grandparents
• Two step-grandparents
• Two parents (cohabiting partners, father previously married)
• One step-mother (previously married to the father)
• Two children and one step-brother (from father’s previous marriage)
Extended family members are more geographically spread than they used to be yet this has not led to
bonds between them weakening. In fact, better and cheaper communications technology and trans-
port, and the expectation on grandparents to help with childcare (see below) will mean that, in reality,
bonds between the extended family are likely to be stronger than ever in 2037.
Globalisation and the post-industrial movement towards depopulation of cities have allowed families
to disperse geographically, both nationally and internationally, in the second half of the 20th century
and the beginning of the 21st century. Some regions within the UK experienced inflows and outflows
of hundreds of thousands of people in 2011 (ONS). Clearly people move about the UK a great deal,
and over the next 25 years they will continue to do so. Over the next 25 years there will also be an
increase in the amount of Britons living abroad, as globalisation continues apace and opportunities
to retire and work abroad multiply. Since 1975, more Britons left the country than returned, and if such
rates of emigration continue for the next 25 years, then between now and 2037, 1.4 million more
Britons will have left the UK than have returned. According to IPPR, in their 2006 report Brits Abroad:
Mapping the scale and nature of British emigration, roughly 5.5m Britons lived permanently
abroad, almost 1 in 10m of the UK population.
An increasing number of Brits are living abroad (Source: ONS, International Passenger Survey)
Net emigration of Brits
250000 Inflow of British citizens
Outflow of British citizens
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
2000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2008
2009
2007
1980
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1988
1989
1990
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1998
1999
2001
2010
1975
1976
1978
1979
1987
1997
1977
1981
1991
-50000
The Butlins Future Report Page 3
Our survey reveals that such dispersal looks set to continue. Thinking about parenthood in 25 years’
time, more than a third of children (36%) would consider setting up home somewhere new, and 1 in 5
(19%) say they may emigrate. The parents of the future view holidays as a remedy to these distances,
with 42% viewing family breaks as the best way to re-connect.
The dispersal of the family does not, however, mean that the family is any less close than it used to
be. Rather, developments in communications technology such as email and Skype, and transport
mean that family members can stay in touch better than ever before despite long distances between
them. According to Understanding Society in 2009/10, more than half (56%) of adults see their father
and two thirds (63%) see their mother at least once a month, whilst according to BHPS in 2006/07,
3 out of 5 adults (62%) speak to their father and 4 out of 5 (78%) speak to their mother on the phone
at least once a week. Indeed given family bonds are still strong and the contact between members
frequent (and will become more so as these technologies advance and become more prevalent),
geographical distance between family members will make desire for reconnection holidays, and the
quality together-time they can provide, all the stronger.
Means of communication and contact have become more prevalent (Source: National Transport
Survey; Ofcom; ONS)
140%
Car ownership (% of households
120% with car or van
Mobile Phone Ownership (as % of
100% population)
% of population using the internet
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
2000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2008
2009
2007
1986
1990
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1998
1999
2001
2010
1997
1951
1961
1981
1991
1071
In fact, according to our survey, over three quarters (79%) of Britain’s great grandparents in 2037 will
use family breaks as a chance to bond with younger generations and feel young again, while 37%
of future grandparents cite holidaying with family as their top choice of way to spend quality time
together. The Relation Vacation will be a big part of the holidays of the future.
The Butlins Future Report Page 4
Expanding for Generation Xtra
Over the past 50 years, the proportion of ‘traditional’ households has decreased, and by 2037 we will
see a diverse array of families and households dotted all over the country – and continent.
And with an extra 1.2 million children aged 5-14, six million more grandparents and 1.5 million more
great-grandparents by 2037, holiday firms will need to consider evolving their offer to accommodate
Generation Xtra – this new category of bigger, more dispersed family unit.
A greater number of children (Source: UN WPP 2010)
17% increase in 5-14 year
8.4 olds in UK by 2037
8.2
8.0
7.8
Population (millions)
7.6
7.4
7.2
7.0 Population ages 5-14, UK
6.8
6.6
6.4
6.2
2020
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2028
2029
2030
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2027
2037
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2018
2019
2021
2031
2017
2011
So what might resorts offer these families in
25 years time? In the future, families could
be holidaying in spacious penthouse-style
apartments with up to eight bedrooms and
spacious living areas to fit entire families who
want to be close together. Larger kitchens
would be needed for self-catering options as
all the generations will want to sit down to
eat together.
The Butlins Future Report Page 6
Virtual holiday personal assistants will be
projected onto apartment walls to get families
up and organised. A family entertainment
schedule would be individually assembled based
on the number of family members and range of
generations holidaying together, with automatic
countdowns and announcements available for
those who want reminders. And when it comes to
dining out, banquet-style dining tables will be a
common feature in resort restaurants to seat the
entire family.
With one eye on the future, Butlins is already
trialling holiday personal assistants and a
concierge service to help families build
itineraries. Interconnecting rooms can be found
at the new Wave Hotel & Apartments and the
team are already finding that the larger family
tables in The Deck restaurant are incredibly
popular with intergenerational holiday makers.
One of Butlins extra large table (seats 14) at The Deck
The Butlins Future Report Page 7
A vision for the holiday
resort of 2037
Butlins architects, PWP, behind the Wave Hotel & Apartments, say the future for holiday resorts lies in ‘intelligent
buildings’ that can measure heat, moisture and pollutants to improve the comfort of each individual room. This will
become ever more important as larger families occupy spaces.
We could also see the development of a super-material which has as big an impact on our society as the invention of
plastic. Created as a composite from natural, sustainable resources and recycled materials, it could capture carbon and
other harmful pollutants. It would also protect families from harmful UV rays whilst using the suns energy for heat and
power. This super-material could even be anti-allergenic to help families live healthily whilst on holiday.
Modular construction is also tipped to be the future for hotel development. Enhancing the build quality, significantly
reducing environmental impact and improved through-life performance make this form of construction ideal. And it’s
these lightweight steel frames with 532 luxury fitted-out modular units, joined together on site, that have been used to
create Wave Hotel and Apartments.
Technology will mean that you need never miss home when you are away or you could swap a UK landscape for
anywhere in the world. State of the art projection techniques will allow images to be cast onto surfaces to create any
known scene in the world all under a cloudless projected sky.
The Butlins Future Report Page 8Butlins – A Future Gazing
Business Story
By PWP, Butlins architects (of the Wave Hotel & Apartments).
The year is 2037. Fossil fuel costs have tripled in the last 25 years.
Butlins parent company Bourne Leisure will have invested in significant
agricultural land holdings to implement a programme of managed forestry
which will be harvested for fuel for biomass boilers that provide heating and
hot water on the resort.
Climate change means that British summers could be more erratic, necessitating
entertainment, retail and public areas to be in a controlled environment.
Technological discoveries in material science have led to the production of a very
light, strong, wonder material that can enclose large areas and this will form the
covering for a huge central enclosure, building on the success of the Skyline
Pavilions that were at the heart of each resort in 2012. Within this biosphere
temperature and humidity are controlled to provide the perfect environment
for a fun filled holiday resort.
State of the art projection techniques allow images to be cast onto the inside of
the biosphere roof surface that create any known scene in the world all under a
cloudless projected sky. You could be in Bognor Regis but get a taste of Barbados!
The Butlins Future Report Page 9New Breed of Super-Gs
21st Century Butlins has come a long way since hosting glamorous granny competitions decades
ago, and so has the modern role grandparents play in today’s society.
By 2037, the role of Britain’s grandparents would have shifted even further with the arrival of the
“Super-G” – a genuine superhero within the extended family. This new breed of grandparent will be
juggling work and household jobs with childcare for grandchildren, emotional support for their own
children and care for their own parents and in-laws.
Mainstream forecasts suggest that longevity will increase, (due to new breakthroughs in medicine
and healthier lifestyles). This means that in 2037, the family will be even more vertical. There will be
more generations in the family and fewer family members within each generation than there have
been in the past. Great grandparents will become more common, and the parents of the future will
have fewer siblings than their parents do today, whilst the children of the future will have similarly low
numbers of siblings.
Higher life expectancy and low fertility are resulting in Vertical Families (Source: UN WPP 2010)
85 2.9
2.7
80
Life expectancy 2.5
Total fertility rate
Total fertility rate
Life expectancy
75
2.3
2.1
70
1.9
65
1.7
60 1.5
1955-1960
1960-1965
1965-1970
1970-1975
1975-1980
1980-1985
1985-1990
1990-1995
1995-2000
2000-2005
2005-2010
2010-2015
2015-2020
2020-2025
2025-2030
2030-2035
2035-2040
This growing vertical family structure increases the likelihood of grandparents being tasked with
caring for both older and younger generations. More mothers will continue in employment
post-children, so grandparents will be helping out with the care for grandchildren - drawing the
family unit even closer.
In fact, 9.8 million grandparents in Britain are expected to be run off their feet in 25 years time – that’s
44%. Just one in five (21%) having time to take up a new hobby and ‘granny rooms’ will become a
common household space in the long-distant families of the future, making it easier for Super-Gs to
save the day.
Nearly all (94%) current parents who expect to become grandparents by 2037, say they would be
prepared to look after their grandchildren once a week or more. In fact, one in five (19%) future
grandparents would be prepared to down tools and take care of the grandchildren every day.
This trend is already underway and looks set to continue.
The Butlins Future Report Page 11Grandparents are increasingly involved in the care of their grandchildren
(Source: ‘Complicated Lives’, Willmott & Nelson, John Wiley & Son, 2003)
% who were looked after by their grandparents, by year of birth and frequency
00%
Never
90%
80% Less than once a month
70%
Once a month
60%
Once every week or two
50%
40% More than once a week
30%
20%
10%
0%
1937 or before 1938-1947 1948-1957 1958-1967 1968-1977 1978-1986
But with life expectancy increasing, great grandparents could also have a much bigger role to play in
childcare in 25 years time. If fertility rates remain stable Britain will see 50% more great grandparents
by 2037. One in six (16%) expect to help out with their great grandchildren and almost half (46%) say
they would be happy to swap retirement for nappy changing once a week or more.
With grandparents and great grandparents playing an even greater role in childcare, they will
become an integral part of holiday planning. The family holiday will develop to include them, both
as a thank you, as support, and as an opportunity for strengthening family bonds.
The Butlins Future Report Page 123D Dads
We have already seen a shift away from traditional gender roles in the home and this is set to
continue. As women become even more active in the workplace and gain greater financial
independence, men will have a much bigger role to play in childcare and household chores. Giving
rise to the birth of the 3D Dad – for whom domestication, dynamism and devotion are core values.
Women increasingly entering paid employment (Source: ONS, Trajectory)
80%
70%
60%
Employment rate fir women (% in employment of those aged 16-64
50%
Economic inactivity amongst women (aged 16-64)
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2002 Q4
2004 Q3
2006 Q2
2009 Q4
2020 Q2
2023 Q4
2025 Q3
2030 Q4
2032 Q3
2034 Q2
2027 Q2
2037 Q4
1983 Q3
1985 Q2
1988 Q4
1990 Q3
1992 Q2
1995 Q4
1999 Q2
2008 Q1
2013 Q2
2016 Q4
2018 Q3
2022 Q1
2029 Q1
2036 Q1
1974 Q4
1976 Q3
1978 Q2
1997 Q3
1980 Q1
1981 Q4
1994 Q1
2001 Q1
2011 Q3
2015 Q1
1971 Q2
1973 Q1
1987 Q1
Over the past two decades, looking after the family home has become less prevalent as a reason for
women to be economically inactive. This is partly driven by shifts in attitudes towards gender roles,
but another factor has been the proliferation of time-saving technology around the home which has
drastically reduced time spent on housework.
Women’s role in housework has dropped as men’s has increased
(Source: Jonathan Gershuny, BBC, ESRC, ONS)
120
Minutes spent per day on various activities
100 Women 1961 Women 2001 Women 2037 Men 1961 Men 2001 Men 2037
100
87
80
71 72
59
60 57
47
43
40
34
30
26 26
22 22 23 24
19
20
7
0
Cooking Cleaning,laundry Childcare
The Butlins Future Report Page 14Gender roles are also changing in the home, with more equality in household chores, but there’s still a long way to go. One in three (35%) dads currently shun housework, and one in six (16%) do little to no childcare. But it’s a far more optimistic outlook for 25 years time with 60% expecting to split chores evenly, and 40% pulling their weight with childcare. More than one in nine (11%) dads could also be staying at home to look after the children, compared to just 4% today. These changes in the family dynamic are set to create and sustain stronger bonds between fathers and their children as a result of more time spent together. This will ultimately lead to an increased demand for holiday activities for the whole family and encouraging every member to get involved. The Butlins Future Report Page 15
Leisure Economy
Leisure time and holidays are very important to Britons and throughout the 20th century the statutory
entitlement to paid holiday has increased dramatically. In 1938, The Holiday with Pay Act was passed,
something Billy Butlin campaigned hard to introduce, allowing 40% of employees in the UK some
form of paid holiday entitlement. This increased to 95% in 1970. Indeed even during the recent
downturn, spending on recreation and culture continued to rise whilst total household expenditure
fell. Given this, it seems likely that consumer spending on recreation and culture will continue to
increase in the future, even without strong economic growth. If it continues to grow at the same rate
as in the previous 7 years, it will have increased from a total of £103.3billion in 2011 to £183billion in
2037 – an 83% increase.
Spending on leisure was little affected by the downturn and could continue to rise
(Source: ONS, Trajectory)
Household spending on recreation and culture (£million)
5000
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
2005 Q4
2006 Q3
2008 Q4
2009 Q3
2020 Q4
2022 Q2
2023 Q4
2024 Q3
2025 Q2
2026 Q4
2028 Q2
2029 Q4
2030 Q3
2032 Q4
2033 Q3
2034 Q2
2035 Q4
2036 Q3
2007 Q2
2027 Q3
2037 Q2
2005 Q1
2008 Q1
2010 Q2
2012 Q3
2013 Q2
2014 Q4
2015 Q3
2016 Q2
2018 Q3
2019 Q2
2020 Q1
2021 Q3
2023 Q1
2026 Q1
2029 Q1
2031 Q2
2032 Q1
2035 Q1
2017 Q4
2011 Q4
2014 Q1
2017 Q1
2011 Q1
This love of leisure and recreation is reflected in British love for holidaying. Britons are the third biggest
holiday goers in Europe, in terms of nights spent away from home. In 2010 each household in the UK
took an average of four holidays.
Holidays are particularly important for Britons (Source: Eurostat)
Number of nights spent on holiday, total, 2010-11 (000s)
1600000
140000
1200000
1000000
800000
600000
400000
200000
0
Germany
France
United Kingdom
Spain
Sweden
Poland
Czech Republic
Finland
Denmark
Norway
Austria
Hungary
Portugal
Romania
Croatia
Slovakia
Bulgaria
Slovenia
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxenbourg
The Butlins Future Report Page 17In the future, then, given that leisure time will remain important; holidaying will be as popular as ever. The
nature of holidays will change though, in that they are likely to become more domestic. This will be driven by
the desire for more Relation Vacations, which are easier to organise domestically between extended family
members, and by negative attitudes towards flying. Already the vast majority of people (70%) make one or
less air trips a year (British Social Attitudes), and many of the parents and grandparents of the future (27% of
current parents and 26% of children) say they would cut down on flying in the future as they are worried by
the environmental impact of air travel.
Based on how families holiday now - and the trends in family shape, leisure and holidays over the next quar-
ter of a century - we might expect a family in 2037 to holiday as follows:
• 1 x family summer holiday abroad (1 week)
• 1 x domestic extended family reconnection break (4 days)
• 1 x supplementary family holiday (3 days)
• 1 x weekend-away for for children with grandparents (2 days)
Hotel Room of 2037
With the aim of finding out what the children of today would love to see in the hotel room of tomorrow, Butlins
asked school children to describe and draw their ideal hotel room.
From the huge range of responses several key themes emerged, with most children identifying ways to
maximise family time activities and minimise chores and travel time. Also prevalent was children’s desire for
high-tech gizmos in hotel rooms, with sci-fi gadgetry included in the majority of descriptions.
Butlins has collated and identified the top 10 ideas and created the ultimate wish-list below:
1. Holographic butlers in each room, designed to help the family plan every aspect of the break
2. Fish tank floors filled with coral, starfish and other tropical creatures
3. Robot cleaning service, so there is no need to worry about clearing up on holiday
4. Touch screen walls to control all electrical appliances instead of having light switches and remote controls
5. Zero-gravity areas, so the whole family can learn to fly
6. Sweet dispenser that can source any imaginable treat
7. Teleporters to transport guests around the resort
8. Trap doors in each room that lead directly into the pool
9. Invisibility screens so that mum and dad won’t know when
the children haven’t gone to bed
10. All the best games consoles, in a dedicated video game area
Whilst it may be a few years until Teleporters can be
found at resorts, Butlins is ahead of the trend with
The Games Port at Wave Hotel & Apartments, an
area where families can enter into some healthy
competition and rivalry. Likewise, the Holiday PAs at
the Bognor Regis resort are not yet holograms but
Butlins Butlers have already been introduced in one
hotel on resort to help families create the perfect
itineraries and plan activities.
The Butlins Future Report Page 18Conclusion
Throughout Butlins 75 year history, families and how they spend their leisure time have
changed a great deal, and the British holiday company has constantly adapted and
evolved in order to meet their shifting needs.
The next 25 years will be no exception for Butlins, and our forecast paints an exciting
picture of how we could be holidaying in the future.
Families are becoming bigger, more intricate and more vertical, as well as dispersing
further geographically. But it is these very factors that will strengthen emotional bonds
between extended family members in the future; causing acceleration in the need and
desire for more flexible, domestic family breaks.
The nature of the family holiday is set to change and extra large apartments, virtual
holiday assistants and dedicated intergenerational dining tables could all be a part of
the Butlins experience by the time it reaches its centenary year. What is certain is that
the travel industry will need to be primed and ready to meet the needs of the families
of the future.
The Butlins Future Report Page 19Butlins: Evolving the Experience
2040
New hotel, designed
2037 for extended
inter-generational
families launches
2030
Butlins investment
2020 £13m has now topped
Brian Turner, TV Chef, Wave Hotel & Apartments, waterpark £250m in the three
opens his family tailored to families with tweens, opens at
2015 seaside resorts
restaurant at 2012 2013 Skegness since 2005
2011
launches at Bognor Regis
Bognor Regis Coast Restaurant
2010 Ocean Hotel & Spa
2009
opens on all the Shoreline, the
BlueSkies, Butlins
2009 launches with a stunning
2005
resorts
2007
first Butlins hotel,
first vacation club, £2m Spa at Bognor Regis
launches at
2004
opens at The first Butlins Spa
Bourne Leisure Bognor Regis
Minehead opens at Skegness
2000 purchases
The Skyline Pavillion 2000 Butlins from Rank
1998 is constructed at the Organisation
/99 heart of each resort
by the same engineers
that designed the
1990 Millennium dome
1980
Rank Organisation
1972 purchases Butlins
1970
Billy Butlin
The Queen and Prince
becomes
Butlins Philip visit Butlins 1964
1963
Sir Billy Butlin
1962
Butlins Bognor Minehead opens Pwllheli where Prince
1960
1960 Regis opens Philip was billeted
during WWII
1950
1945
WWII Butlins sites are
requisitioned by the forces
as recruitment
1940
1939
The first and training bases
1936
Butlins opens
in Skegness
1930
The Butlins Future Report Page 20Contact For all press enquiries, please contact Sarah Smith or Samantha Crossfield at Consolidated PR on 0207 7812 300 or email butlins@consolidatedpr.com The Butlins Future Report is the copyright of Butlins. Notes to editors Qualitative and quantitative research was undertaken for Butlins by Trajectory during April 2012 and www.onepoll.com among a sample of 2,200 grandparents, parents and children from 15 – 21 May 2012. About Butlins Butlins has three beachside resorts, Bognor Regis (West Sussex), Minehead (Somerset) and Skegness (Lincolnshire) and welcomes around 1.5m guests per year. Butlins won the Tourism and Leisure Training Team Award as well as the Overall Winner Award in the Training Team categories at the Customer Service Training Awards 2011. It was named as the Best UK/Domestic Tour Operator 2010 in the British Travel Awards as well as 2010 UK Customer Experience Award in Travel, Leisure and Tourism. It is part of Bourne Leisure Ltd which also owns Warner Leisure Hotels and Haven Holidays.
You can also read
