The Future of Mobility in the UK - March 2021 - UKPIA
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The Future of Mobility
in the UK
March 2021
1
The Future of Mobility in the UK | March 2021
Disclaimer:
This report has been prepared by UKPIA by its own assessment and does not represent the combined views of its members. All data shown in tables and charts are
UKPIA’s own data, except where otherwise stated and cited in endnotes, and are copyright © of the UK Petroleum Industry Association. This report is the intellectual
property of UKPIA and may not be published or distributed without prior written permission. The modelling and results presented are based on information provided
by third parties, upon which UKPIA has relied in producing its report and forecasts in good faith. Any subsequent revision or update of those data will aff ect the
assessments and projections shown.
This is an illustrative report for information only and is intended to indicate how the downstream oil sector might operate in a future scenario; there may also be other
potential operations and many alternative scenarios. UKPIA disclaims all liability and responsibility for any decisions or investment which might be made on the basis of
information provided in this report. There should be no implied commitment from UKPIA (or any of its member companies) to operate using the processes described;
how businesses are developed and operated is a commercial matter for individual companies.
2
Contents
1. Executive Summary 4
2. Introduction 6
3. Transport:
Energy Provision, Storage, and Conversion 12
3.1. The Greenhouse Gas
Emission Reduction Challenge 14
3.2. Transport Energy Provision in the UK 14
3.3. Other Environmental
and Socioeconomic Impacts 17
4. The Energy Vector Transition 20
4.1. Systems Approach to Decarbonisation 22
4.2. Product Lifecycle GHG Emissions 22
4.3. Transport Fuels:
from Fossil-derived to Renewable 26
4.4. Other GHG Reducing Initiatives 33
5. Mobility Paradigm Shift 36
5.1. COVID-19 Movement Restrictions 38
5.2. Hyper-Proximity 39
5.3. Mobility as a Service 39
5.4. Blockchain 40
5.5. Consumer Convenience Technology 41
5.6. Micromobility 41
5.7. Connected and Autonomous
Vehicle Technology 41
6. Changes on the Road 44
6.1. Powered Light Vehicles 46
6.2. Cars & Vans 46
6.3. Buses & Coaches 50
6.4. Heavy Goods Vehicles 51
6.5. Forecourts of the Future 52
7. Changes off the Road 56
7.1. Rail 58
7.2. Non-Road Mobile Machinery 59
8. Changes at Sea 60
8.1. Inland Shipping and Leisure Craft 62
8.2. International Shipping 62
8.3. The Port of the Future 65
check numbers atChanges
9. end in the Air 66
9.1. Domestic Aviation 68
9.2. International Aviation 68
9.3. The Airport of the Future 70
10. Summary of Report Findings 72
11. Glossary 74
12. References 75
3
The Future of Mobility in the UK | March 2021
1. Executive Summary
The UKPIA Report “Future of Mobility in the • Second, the transition itself is considered.
UK” provides a comprehensive assessment While, to date, policies have been
of transport decarbonisation to identify successful in reducing vehicle tailpipe
important issues, challenges and possible emissions and increasing biofuel content in
solutions on how the UK’s biggest emitting petrol and diesel fuels, a change of greater
sector can transform to meet Net-Zero magnitude will be needed to decarbonise
by 2050. The report expands on themes more comprehensively. The Energy
first raised in UKPIA’s 2020 Transition, Vector Transition looks at the importance
Transformation, and Innovation Report (the of accounting for all GHG emissions in
“TTI Report”) and goes into more detail on transport – from manufacture of vehicles and
transport-specific issues, offering technical their energy vectors, and even the recycling
findings that offer greater evidence in of some materials used, to highlighting the
support of UKPIA’s policy suggestions in importance of a systems-based approach
the TTI Report. The findings can help shape to decarbonisation.
future transport decarbonisation decisions
by policymakers, consumers, and those • While technologies and how we introduce
industries most closely involved in the UK’s them will be absolutely vital to decarbonising
transport energy system and makes clear the transport sector – as well as developing
the central role of the downstream sector as opportunities that could make the UK a
partner in transport decarbonisation. world leader in new technologies – there
are other trends that can play an important
• By considering first today’s transport role too. Blockchain, the rise of mobility-
sector – which emits over a third of the as-a-service, changes in where we work
UK’s GHG emissions – the report shows from, and autonomous vehicles may all
the many different ways that transport contribute to reduced overall demand for
is used: from electric scooters making transport energies and make the enormous
local deliveries to planes flying thousands task of decarbonisation more manageable
of miles. Development of new and while improving economic performance
deployment of existing technologies can and consumer experience.
replace fossil fuel use over time, but given
how transport is used, each technology • Drawing together the themes explored
will have challenges to overcome and before, later chapters present snapshots
some uses will be better suited for certain of how each transport sector – roads, rail,
technologies. aviation and shipping – might evolve as the
UK strives to reach its Net-Zero by 2050
target.
4
The report’s final chapter brings together The UK’s downstream oil sector is already at
technical and practical findings from each the very heart of transport, both as a central
chapter. While the findings are focussed, part of product delivery but also in ensuring
an overarching theme is the sheer scale of the mass delivery of energy vectors to the
change needed. The following overall views consumer. Changes are already being made
have been reached: to products and consumer offerings to
develop new, low and zero-carbon energy
solutions for transport. Companies – driven
1. To meet Net-Zero, all stakeholders by strong competition, continuing demand
must work together in pursuing all for energy for transport in all its forms,
technology options with low carbon and the need to operate sustainably - will
fuels and hydrogen (both blue and green), continue to innovate and work across all
along with battery electrification, having transport modes to deliver fit for purpose
important roles to play across the UK’s products that improve logistics, reduce
transport modes. GHG emissions through the whole supply
chain, and ultimately drive a transformed
2. A systems approach, lifecycle analysis transport sector.
of transport GHG emissions, and frank
assessment of transport mode energy
provision, storage, and conversion
demands are essential ingredients in An overarching theme of
a transport decarbonisation strategy
to ensure significant, achievable GHG this paper is the sheer
emissions reductions at the lowest
societal cost. scale of change needed
3. A mobility paradigm shift is required,
and indeed expected in
with new technologies and models the Future of Mobility
disrupting existing mobility offers to
improve transport energy efficiency.
5
The Future of Mobility in the UK | March 2021
2. Introduction
As a focal point of manufacturing, energy In the TTI Report, the progress made to
provision, powertrain technology, information decarbonise the UK downstream oil sector
technology, consumer convenience, and itself was highlighted along with the potential
regulation, the transport sector is one of means to meet Net-Zero. The sector has
the most complex and diverse sectors in made great strides in recent years in the
the UK economy. In order to meet the UK’s energy vectors it provides – including liquid
ambitious Net-Zero by 2050 objective, all fuels and electricity:
stakeholders must work together in pursuing
all technology options to reduce today’s • UKPIA member companies are developing
transport energy demand, which stands at their own EV charging brands such as bp
over 600 TWh/year.1 pulse and Shell Recharge and members
are seeking to expand their rapid charging
Today, more than 96% of energy for transport networks in particular as well as creating
is provided by the downstream sector, dedicated EV charging hubs. The early
making it the primary energy provider for adaptation of refuelling hubs is shown in
UK transport.1,2 that there were over 1000 public charging
6
devices on UK forecourts and service However, while changes are already being
stations at the end of 2020 according to made, the pace of change needs to increase,
figures from ZapMap.3 delivering not just incremental improvements
but changes in energy vectors, supply
• Continuing renewable fuel blending in chains, infrastructure and consumer
2019 saved a total of 5.37 Mt CO2e, which behaviours. A systems-based approach,
is equivalent to taking 2.5 million cars lifecycle analysis of emissions, and a frank
off the road for a full year, both of which assessment of transport energy provision,
demonstrate the sector’s commitment storage, and conversion demands are all – in
and ability to contribute to transport UKPIA’s view – essential ingredients in the
decarbonisation.4 decarbonisation of transport.
What is clear at these early stages is that
With new technological developments, all transport energy vectors will need to be
and government interventions – as set out pursued, with no single technology able to
in the Ten Point Plan for a Green Industrial meet our future mobility demands for every
Revolution – the rate of change is only set community, every industry, and ultimately
to increase. every journey.
7
The Future of Mobility in the UK | March 2021
Figure 1: Potential energy vector suitability for transport modes
– further detail on classifications can be found in the table which follows
High viability
HEAVY HEAVY HEAVY
RANGE
Possible viability
LONG RANGE
LONG RANGE
HEAVY
DUTY DUTY HEAVY DUTY
LONGRANGE
LONG RANGE
(see notes)
DUTY DUTY
Low viability
LONG
LIGHT
LIGHT LIGHT LIGHT
DUTY DUTY Notes LIGHT
DUTY
DUTY DUTY
1. Depending on
Infrastructure
AIR
AIR AIR
SEA
SEA SEA
RAILRAIL RAIL
ROADROAD ROAD 2. With in-journey AIR SEA AIR RAIL
charging such as
overhead cable
Battery HEAVY
HEAVY HEAVY Battery
3. Energy vector Battery HEAVY HEAVY
RANGE
SHORT RANGE
SHORT RANGE
DUTY
SHORT RANGE
DUTY
RANGE
DUTY
electrification
DUTY electrification
suitability
electrification
depends DUTY
on route / distance
SHORT
4. Hybrid fuel-battery
SHORT
LIGHT LIGHT
DUTY LIGHT approach effective LIGHT
LIGHT DUTY
DUTY DUTY 5. For routes that DUTY
cannot be electrified
6. For existing ICE fleet
HEAVY HEAVY
LONG RANGE
LONG RANGE
DUTY DUTY
HEAVY
LONG RANGE
HEAVY
LONG RANGE
DUTY
DUTY
LIGHT LIGHT
DUTY DUTY
LIGHT
LIGHT DUTY
DUTY AIR SEA RAIL ROAD
AIR SEA RAIL ROAD
RAIL ROAD AIR SEA RAIL ROAD
Low-carbon HEAVY HEAVY
Hydrogen
SHORT RANGE
SHORT RANGE
DUTY DUTY
fuels
Low-carbonHEAVY HEAVY
Hydrogen
SHORT RANGE
DUTY
Hydrogenfuels LIGHT
SHORT RANGE
DUTY
LIGHT
DUTY DUTY
LIGHT
LIGHT DUTY
DUTY
8
High viability High viability
HEAVY HEAVY
LONG RANGE
Possible viability
LONG RANGE
DUTY Possible viability
DUTY (see notes) (see notes)
Low viability Low viability
LIGHT LIGHT
DUTY DUTY Notes Notes
1. Depending on 1. Depending on
Infrastructure Infrastructure
RAIL ROAD AIR SEA RAIL AIR ROAD SEA 2.RAIL
With in-journey
ROAD 2. With in-journey
charging such as charging such as
overhead cable overhead cable
Battery Battery
HEAVY HEAVY 3. Energy vector 3. Energy vector
SHORT RANGE
SHORT RANGE
DUTY DUTY suitability depends
electrification electrification on route / distance
suitability depends
on route / distance
4. Hybrid fuel-battery 4. Hybrid fuel-battery
approach effective approach effective
LIGHT LIGHT
DUTY DUTY 5. For routes that 5. For routes that
cannot be electrified cannot be electrified
6. For existing ICE fleet 6. For existing ICE fleet
HEAVY
LONG RANGE
HEAVY HEAVY
LONG RANGE
LONG RANGE
DUTY
DUTY DUTY
LIGHT
LIGHT LIGHT
DUTY
DUTY DUTY
SEA RAIL ROAD AIR SEA RAIL ROAD
AIR SEA RAIL ROAD AIR SEA RAIL ROAD
HEAVY
Hydrogen
SHORT RANGE
HEAVY HEAVY
Hydrogen
DUTY
SHORT RANGE
SHORT RANGE
DUTY DUTY
LIGHT
LIGHT DUTY LIGHT
DUTY DUTY
9
The Future of Mobility in the UK | March 2021
Summary of the Ranges and Duty Cycles
of the Main Transport Modes
The primary consumer transport mode accounting for 77%
Passenger of the distance covered by consumers in 2019.5 The majority
Car of journeys areHeavy duty transport for commercial activity such as
Non-Road tractors and construction vehicles. Significant energy
Off-
Mobile demands owing to challenging surfaces and need to pull
Road
Machinery and/or power supplementary equipment. Generally feature
shorter ranges than other heavy duty vehicles.
Fixed route transport for urban and suburban passenger
Commuter transport. Efficiency gains compared to road transport
Rail due to removed tyre deformation resistance. High energy
Rail demands due to vehicle mass requirements.
Longer-range fixed route transport for intercity travel.
Intercity and
High energy demands due to vehicle mass and distance
Freight Rail
requirements.
Small boats with low energy and range demands. Light
Light and
and leisure boats representThe Future of Mobility in the UK | March 2021
3
Transport: Energy
Provision, Storage,
and Conversion
12Transport is at the heart of the greenhouse
gas emission (GHG) reduction challenge.
Even with improvements in efficiency, more
electric vehicles on our roads, and a greater
percentage of biofuels blended into the fuel –
sector GHG emissions have remained steady
since 1990.7
The downstream sector is experienced in
the manufacture and provision of all energy
vectors and has demonstrable expertise
in the accounting of their net well-to-tank
(WTT) GHG emissions. Furthermore, in 2019,
the UK’s transport sector consumed 659
TWh of energy, of which 96% was provided
by the downstream sector.
Decarbonisation of transport will be vital in
reaching the UK’s Net-Zero target, however,
transport has other environmental impacts
that must be considered as part of this
transition, e.g. air quality, UK supply chain
resilience, and raw material demand.
13The Future of Mobility in the UK | March 2021
3. Transport: Energy Provision,
Storage, and Conversion
3.1 The Greenhouse Gas Emission Not all emissions for the transport sector
Reduction Challenge occur in-use and it is important to note
In May 2019, the Climate Change Committee the manufacture of a vehicle itself also has
(CCC) published their Net-Zero Report,8 significant cradle-to-grave GHG emissions
and accompanying technical report,9 (see section 4.2.1)1 that must be accounted
recommending to the UK Government a for, particularly when considering a Net-
new emissions target for the UK: Net-Zero Zero target. Currently, all motored transport
greenhouse gases (GHG) by 2050. This target modes have a lifecycle GHG emissions
– a response to increased concentration impact – even if their tailpipe GHG emissions
of GHG emissions from human activity are zero – and to meet Net-Zero, it is
– was subsequently adopted by the UK these emissions right across the lifecycle
Government and enshrined in law.10 of all vehicles and their use that must be
By 2019 the UK had, in fact, already initiated decarbonised. Climate scientists are clear
economy-wide decarbonisation, with most that GHG reduction opportunities missed
sectors reducing their GHG emissions vs in the short-term will be more difficult and
1990 levels, but transport in-use emissions costly to abate in the long-term.
have remained broadly steady. There
have been improvements – notably in the 3.2 Transport Energy Provision in the UK
efficiency of internal combustion engine (ICE) In 2019, the UK’s transport sector consumed
technologies – that have improved average 659 TWh of energy, of which 96% was
per-vehicle emissions. However, sector GHG provided by the downstream sector,2 with the
emissions have remained level as overall remainder electricity.11 To date, prioritisation
distances travelled have increased.7 of movement at the lowest cost has led to the
proliferation of transport powered by fossil-
derived fuels, but this could change in future
to take into account other important factors
– environmental in particular. The additional
and urgent priority to reduce net GHG
emissions of transport highlights the need
to reduce the use of fossil-derived fuels and
embrace the range of technologies available
to meet the scale of demand currently
supplied by crude oil derived energy.
14There are three important facets to transport
energy provision. In the UK, all motored
The downstream sector
transport – whether electric or combustion is experienced in the
– is dependent on both energy transfer and
energy conversion, with a third dependency manufacture and provision
for most transport operations (except where
in-operation energy transfer can occur, such
of all energy vectors
as rail) being the requirement for on-board and has demonstrable
energy storage.
The primary energy vectors available for expertise in the accounting
transport include liquid fuels, carbon-based
gaseous fuels, hydrogen, and electricity. of their net well-to-tank
Bringing together the current needs (energy
transfer, conversion, and storage) together
and greenhouse gas
with the drivers (cost and sustainability), emissions.
there are five considerations that can shape
our thinking about future transport energy The downstream sector is experienced in
provision. These considerations are simply the manufacture and provision of all energy
captured for the main energy vectors on the vectors and has demonstrable expertise
next page. in the accounting of their net WTT GHG
Vitally, all energy vectors can reach very emissions. Furthermore, the sector plays
low or Net-Zero carbon emissions. It is also a crucial role in enabling the storage of
noteworthy that no energy vector works for electricity, with the UK being the largest
every consideration highlighted in the table, producer of high-grade graphite coke for
and when considering current capacity anodes in lithium-ion batteries in Europe.16
there are some limitations in the lowest Similarly, new roles may emerge, as the
GHG emission options such as hydrogen, wider energy systems transform, with the
highlighting the need for all technologies. The potential for use of existing downstream oil
International Energy Agency (IEA) recently infrastructure for storage and distribution of
reinforced this point stating that “a broad renewably-sourced products like hydrogen or
range of different technologies working synthetic fuels. Surplus renewable electricity
across all sectors of the economy” would be could also be converted via electrolysis of
required to have a chance of achieving Net- water into easier to store products, stored
Zero GHG emissions.15 and distributed through these facilities.17
15The Future of Mobility in the UK | March 2021
Table 1: = high potential or viability
Summary of relative qualitative decarbonised = possible potential or viability
transport energy vector considerations = low potential or viability
Liquid Fuels Gaseous Fuels Hydrogen Electricity
Intermediate for Intermediate Currently high Intermediate to
Manufacture
low Well-to-Tank for low WTT for low WTT low for low WTT
Cost
(WTT) emissions emissions emissions emissions
Up to 90% Up to 90%
WTT GHG reduction for bio- reduction for bio- Up to 100% Up to 100%
Emissions derived12, up to derived12, up to reduction if reduction if
Reduction 100% reduction if 100% reduction if renewable energy renewable energy
Potential renewable energy renewable energy derived derived
derived derived
Minimal at grid
Tankers and Further energy
level other than
Transfer/ pipelines Energy required required for
intermittency
Movement available, minimal for compression, compression
management,
Complexity input energy smaller unit size and volatility
some low voltage
required considerations
network challenges
Infrastructure Minimal
Infrastructure
Transfer / development infrastructure
Infrastructure and development
Infrastructure needed for available
standards in place needed for scale,
Readiness transport, but under
standards in place
standards in place development
On-Board Limited by
High by volume
Storage Energy High by mass High by mass chemical battery
and mass
Density energy density
Finite biomass, Finite biomass, High renewable
Primary Energy Unlimited - limited
highest renewable highest renewable energy input
Input and only by generator
energy input for energy input for for electrolysis-
Availability capacity
e-fuels e-fuels derived
Current Use
3.2% of energy 0.13% of energy 0% of energy 0.83% of energy
in Transport
used in transport used in transport used in transport used in transport
(2019)13,14
16Relative shares of fuels used in UK transport, 2019
0.57%
0.26%
95.84% 4.16% 0.13%
3.20%
0.00%
Petroleu m Liquid Biofuels Electricity Non-Renewable Electricity Renewable Gaseous Biofuels Renewable Hydrogen
Source: Eurostat13, BEIS14
3.3 Other Environmental and 3.3.1 Air Quality
Socioeconomic Impacts Vehicles have faced increasingly stringent
Decarbonisation of transport will be vital in tailpipe regulations to address air quality with
reaching the UK’s Net-Zero target, however, excess levels of air pollutants in urban areas
transport has other environmental impacts. due to be tackled via the implementation
These are outlined here as they will also of emissions zones. Sulphur oxide (SOX )
shape the future of mobility in the UK, but emissions have been reduced to near zero
are not discussed in detail in this document. for UK road transport, with sulphur having
been removed from road fuels, and 2020
17The Future of Mobility in the UK | March 2021
saw the mandated global reduction of implement powertrain-specific restrictions –
sulphur emissions for ships – although strict notably Bristol and Oxford.25,26
limits have been in place for UK waters for As the UK vehicle market is deeply
some time. Nitrogen Oxide (NOX ) emissions, intertwined with that of mainland Europe,
while reduced from transport by 47% since it is expected that UK vehicle emissions
2000, will remain of concern while pre-Euro standards moving forward will remain in
6 and Euro VI vehicles remain a significant line with those maintained by the European
proportion of the vehicle fleet.18 Particulate Union (EU).
Matter (PM) emissions have decreased by
over 40% over the last two decades but will
not be easily reduced further with a change
to electric vehicles, as road transport PM
emissions are not only from the tailpipe
(where even the latest diesel ICEs have very
low emissions)19 but also from road, tyre,
and brake wear.
DEFRA have published a Clean Air Zone
(CAZ) framework20 offering a template
approach for local authorities to adopt.
The idea is that there will be similar
ICE-vehicle emissions standards in the
strictest emissions zone class (D) across
cities, although some cities have already
implemented ultra-low emissions zones.21
The first in the UK applicable to passenger
cars was the London Ultra Low Emissions
Zone (ULEZ),22 and it is planned that
Birmingham and Bath will implement Class
D and Class C CAZs respectively in 2021.23,24
Some local authorities have opted to deviate
from the DEFRA CAZ framework and plan to
183.3.2 Raw Material Demand 3.3.3 UK Supply Resilience
Increased powertrain technology diversity The shift to energy vectors based on
in the UK – particularly the proliferation renewable electricity and biomass will evolve
of battery electric and fuel cell electric the current UK energy supply dynamic –
powertrains – will require growth in raw resulting in new benefits and risks. Increase
material extraction. For example, the in biomass demand will necessitate an
increased manufacture of battery electric improved domestic supply chain and is likely
vehicles (BEVs) has implications for demand to also result in a reduction in the import
of multiple metal elements, and the proton of crude oil. Sustainable biomass with low
exchange membrane (PEM) of hydrogen fuel indirect land use change (ILUC) emissions
cells requires platinum. This can have an is a finite resource, with the likelihood
impact on product lifecycle considerations that other countries will also be adopting
such as toxicity, water use,27 and social risks, competing transport decarbonisation
where growing awareness will likely demand policies. Encouragingly, an increase in
further supply chain transparency.28 domestically generated renewable energy
Raw material availability, as well as could afford the UK some energy resilience
extraction considerations, will play a part in benefits for EVs, as well as production of
shaping the future of UK transport. In 2019, green hydrogen and e-fuels.
many leading scientists in the UK sent a However, the increased demand for vehicles
letter to the Committee on Climate Change utilising these energy vectors is likely to
highlighting that to achieve an entirely BEV result in a reduction in product supply
car and van vehicle parc in the UK – even resilience. There is currently limited battery
with the currently most resource-frugal manufacturing capacity in the UK, with
NMC 811 batteries – would require double demand due to be met predominantly by
the current global production of cobalt, imports at least into the 2020s. Therefore, the
and three quarters of the world’s lithium UK’s future of mobility may be underpinned
production.29 Moving forward, the UK has by a shift in energy dependency to product
the opportunity to become a world leader supply dependency that may ultimately shift
on the sustainable sourcing requirements price volatility – and resultant costs on the
for vehicles and energy vectors as well as end-user – from the in-use phase to the
ensuring that recycling of materials reduces upfront phase of vehicle ownership.
the long-term need for virgin materials.
19The Future of Mobility in the UK | March 2021
4
The Energy Vector
Transition
20A systems-based approach is crucial
to reducing emissions, especially when
considering emissions must be Net-Zero
across the whole economy, with knock-on
effects in one policy area having the potential
to cause problems in others.
The concept of product lifecycle GHG
emissions is the next frontier in emissions
accounting. To truly account for the net GHG
emissions impact of transport (and indeed
any product), one must consider the GHG
emissions impact over the full lifecycle –
‘from cradle-to-grave’.
Offering a quality end-user experience can
help accelerate the transition to renewable
based fuels and energy vectors.
Other GHG reducing initiatives such as
offsetting and nature-based solutions or
alternative fuel models can play an important
role as part of the transition to Net-Zero in
transport.
21The Future of Mobility in the UK | March 2021
4. The Energy Vector Transition dependencies and knock-on effects in other
parts of the economy to reach Net-Zero.
4.1 Systems Approach to Decarbonisation
The DfT’s Science Advisory Council
(SAC) highlighted in their 2020 position – 4.2 Product Lifecycle GHG Emissions
regarding transport research and innovation
requirements to support the decarbonisation 4.2.1 Constituent Analyses
of transport – that the challenge of In-use emissions are only part of the GHG
decarbonisation must be viewed through emissions footprint of transport – to truly
the lens of energy vectors and the net GHG account for the net GHG emissions impact
emissions impact of these energy vectors.30 of transport (and indeed any product), one
This principle is also highlighted by Energy must consider the GHG emissions impact
Systems Catapult (ESC) who highlight in over the full lifecycle – ‘from cradle-to-
their ‘Innovating to Net Zero’ report31 that a grave’ – in order to make effective decisions
whole systems approach to energy uses and about where and how emissions can be
vectors must be adopted to understand and most efficiently and effectively reduced. The
address the Net-Zero challenge. constituent analyses of a cradle-to-grave
The importance of a systems approach to lifecycle analysis (LCA) are:
transport decarbonisation is also recognised
internationally. For example, The US National • Cradle-to-gate (manufacturing including
Renewable Energy Laboratory have recently raw material extraction) emissions
published their vision for decarbonising • In-use (tailpipe and maintenance)
transport highlighting the importance emissions
of considering interdependencies in the • Energy vector well-to-tank emissions
transport and buildings energy systems.32 • End of life (re-purposing or disposal)
The analysis also highlights the importance of emissions
assessing energy vector suitability based on
4.2.2 Existing Approaches and Studies
duty cycle, reporting conclusions consistent
Each constituent analysis identified in 4.2.1
with those of UKPIA’s in section 4.3.
is well-understood in existing frameworks,
Whilst a systems approach may not
with:
perfectly align with existing regulations that
focus mainly on in-use or well-to-tank (WTT)
• Cradle-to-gate emissions analysis
emissions, it will be important to deliver
in widespread use by many Original
net GHG emissions reductions across the
Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) for a
whole economy. Thinking about the whole
number of years;33
lifecycle emissions of both a vehicle and
• In-use tailpipe CO2 emissions regulated in
the energy it uses will enable a system wide
the UK since 2015,34
decarbonisation of transport while flagging
22Cradle-to-Grave
Well-to-Wheel (WTW)
Embedded Emissions
Energy Vector Production Cradle-to-Gate
The environmental impact of Well-to-Tank (WTT)
producing the transport energy
vector(s) from the primary energy
source to the point of distribution
Use
Vehicle Production The environmental impact of End-of-Life
driving/vehicle use
The environmental impact of
The environmental impact at the
vehicle production including raw & end of product life including the re-
material extraction, processing,
The environmental impact of use of components, recycling
parts manufacture, logistics, and
servicing and maintenance materials, energy recovery, and
assembly
disposal
Figure 2: Schematic of cradle-to-grave lifecycle analysis and constituent analyses
• Well-to-tank GHG emissions of fuels an transport,38-41 with studies also conducted
essential consideration for fuel suppliers on bunker fuel WTW GHG emissions38
of greater than 450,000 l/year under the and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) GHG
UK’s renewable fuels regulations,35,36; emissions,42 highlighting that this is an area of
• End of life of vehicles (ELVs) subject to increasing focus for transport policymakers
minimum reuse and recovery targets for all modes. Given the importance of
since 200637 (although associated GHG such an approach in meeting the target of
emissions are not accounted for in the Net-Zero GHG emissions by 2050, and the
regulations). complexity in combining partial lifecycle
analyses, a move to frameworks that
The challenge to resolve in the short-term is consider transport lifecycle GHG emissions
to combine existing lifecycle GHG emissions is gaining increasing support amongst
assessments and assigning pragmatic and industries that view a holistic approach as
consistent boundary conditions. essential for the cost-effective, technology
Extensive studies have been conducted neutral decarbonisation of products.43-45
on the lifecycle GHG emissions of road
23The Future of Mobility in the UK | March 2021
Finding 1:
Considering full cradle to grave product
lifecycle GHG emissions and regulation
for primary transport modes is likely to
contribute to the most efficient delivery of A move to frameworks
Net-Zero
that consider transport
4.2.3 Lifecycle GHG Emissions by lifecycle GHG emissions is
Powertrain and Energy Vector
gaining increasing support
Whilst there is a degree of variation in lifecycle amongst industries that
studies of passenger cars – predominantly
due to variations in boundary conditions – view a holistic approach
the extent and refinement of studies has
resulted in conclusions coalescing around is essential for the cost-
several key themes:
effective, technology
• The cradle-to-gate GHG emissions of BEVs neutral decarbonisation
are greater than for ICE and hybrid vehicles
(a range of 1.3-2x higher)46, resulting in an of products
‘emissions debt’ at the point of sale.
• With the UK grid, which has significant
renewable generation, and a road fleet that
is principally powered by fossil-derived
fuels at present, the ‘emissions debt’ is
surpassed under common ownership
mileages (Figure 3: Lifecycle CO2 emissions of mid-size vehicles propelled by liquid fuel,
battery-electric, and fuel cell-electric powertrains.48
These conclusions can be used to identify intensity, reduced logistics and, therefore,
significant areas enabling GHG emissions GHG emissions, although domestic supply
reduction – for example, the importance of routes may not always be the most carbon
lowering the cradle-to-gate emissions of efficient. Nonetheless, investment from
vehicle manufacture. Companies are taking OEMs in growing UK manufacture needs to
the lead, for example with Volkswagen’s be attracted or such benefits risk remaining
new ID.3, where VW claim carbon neutrality ‘on-paper’. In 2019, the UK manufactured
for several aspects of the vehicle lifecycle 1.38 million vehicles of which 1.056 million
including the use of ‘green energy’ in the were exported, so while the UK is the fifth
battery manufacture and vehicle assembly.49 largest car manufacturer in Europe, carbon
Another conclusion is of the importance of emissions would be lower if more of the
domestic manufacture of vehicles, which vehicles produced stayed in the UK market.50
offers demonstrable benefits in terms of grid
25The Future of Mobility in the UK | March 2021
4.3.1 Electricity
Finding2:2: Placing the downstream and
Finding For light duty road vehicles, consumers
automotive
Placing thesectors at the forefront
downstream of COVID
and automotive are now offered a choice of powertrain
recovery and long-term UK trade strategies
sectors at the forefront of COVID recovery technologies, as EVs gain far greater market
can grow
and domestic
long-term UKsupply
tradechains early while
strategies can share. Such choice is possible not only
decarbonising
grow domesticlong-term.
supply chains early while due to the vehicle availability for purchase,
decarbonising long-term. but also the availability of battery charging
infrastructure. The downstream sector is at
the forefront of charging provision, as well
4.3 Transport Fuels: from Fossil-derived as battery material manufacture, with UKPIA
to Renewable members offering the largest public EV
The energy production (well-to-tank) and use charger networks in the UK (also powered by
(tank to wheel) phases of GHG emissions certified renewable energy).52,53 The sector’s
can be combined to account for the well- 8,390 retail forecourts54 - which together
to-wheel (WTW) emissions of a vehicle. with motorway service stations in 2020 had
The previous sections have discussed the 1,066 available EV charging devices3 - will
current and potential GHG emissions of continue to be the vehicle re-energising
various energy vectors, however, thus far hubs for the consumer with new offers such
have not explored a critical component: as EV charging (see 5.5).
availability to the end-user. This section Across all transport modes, a shift to
considers the future development and likely electrification may be limited by a number of
experience of nation-wide provision for the challenges:
primary energy vectors with conclusions
outlined in this section consistent with the 1. Suitable infrastructure deployment.
roadmaps highlighted in the latest Advanced 2. Battery energy storage density.
Propulsion Centre (APC) Transport Energy 3. Availability of required materials and
Network report.51 complexities involved in recycling
(as considered in 2.3.2.)
Infrastructure deployment is predominantly
an economic and practical challenge. The
adoption of EVs has in part been slowed by
consumer concerns over charger availability,
reliability, payment convenience and upfront
cost.55 However, as the portion of EVs in
the UK vehicle parc grows, confidence in
investing in EV charger infrastructure will
increase.
26The UK government has already made
important steps to address some of these Finding 3:
concerns, such as mandating that new Reducing or removing the regulatory
‘rapid+’ chargers must offer a pay as you burdens for Distribution Network Operators
go option for payment, and financially (DNOs) can enable local networks to be
supporting EV charger installation.56,57 upgraded and support the installation of
However, significant strides must still be substations for EV charging e.g. allowing
made in expanding the EV charger network, DNOs to invest ahead of need with regards
and ensuring similar levels of service and to EV charging infrastructure.
reliability to the consumer experience
of liquid fuel dispensing, to support the
adoption of this energy vector.
Finding 4:
Publication of thorough, dedicated
guidance for the safe installation of EV
chargers at dedicated sites or existing
retail forecourts may reduce local planning
consent issues.
Figure 4: Transport modes suitable for battery
(and OHC) electrification based on range and duty cycle
Highly viable
HEAVY
LONG RANGE
Possibly viable
DUTY (see notes)
Low viability
LIGHT
DUTY Notes
1. Depending on
Infrastructure
A RAIL ROAD AIR SEA RAIL ROAD 2. With in-journey
charging such as
overhead cable
Battery HEAVY 3. Energy vector
SHORT RANGE
DUTY suitability depends
electrification on route / distance
4. Hybrid fuel-battery
approach effective
LIGHT
DUTY 5. For routes that
cannot be electrified
6. For existing ICE fleet
27The Future of Mobility in the UK | March 2021
Even the most optimistic energy density
predictions for batteries indicate future Finding 5:
energy content an order of magnitude It is important that the finite pool of battery
below liquid fuels – including accounting materials and batteries themselves are
for ICE’s lower conversion efficiency.58 This utilised in the most appropriate transport
will present particular challenges for long- modes – short range and light duty – and
range, heavy duty transport unless there in a sustainable framework where battery
is energy transfer during the journey such lifecycle planning pays more attention
as via overhead catenary (OHC). Electric to responsible sourcing and end-of-life
vehicles of the future could be split into (at concepts than is currently the case.62
least) two categories of on-board chemical
battery storage for shorter range, light
duty applications and OHC supply for In terms of supply, increased electricity
fixed route applications (such as trains and required to meet increased demand for
guided busways where the infrastructure is vehicle charging must continue to be
practically implementable). renewable (in addition to that required
It should also be noted that the rapid to further decarbonise existing supply),
electrification of UK and European vehicles ensuring low (and eventually zero) WTW
will stretch the battery supply chain – even GHG emissions for this energy vector.
with its rapid rate of growth – with lithium This renewable energy will also need to be
demand currently forecast to outstrip all balanced at the local network level, with
projects that are operational, planned, smart charging utilised to both support the
unfinanced and recycling initiatives.59 Similar consumer’s residential vehicle re-energising
concerns could also emerge for other battery needs whilst smoothing electricity demand.
component materials like cobalt or nickel,
although new battery chemistry is being
Finding 6:
developed which may change the resource
Supporting the market-led introduction
demand to more abundant materials.60
of smart-charging could boost cost-
Recycling of battery materials also has
effective and innovative approaches for
significant potential to contribute alongside
the consumer in the EV space.
or ultimately instead of virgin materials –
something that is already being considered
by the Faraday Institution.61
284.3.2 Hydrogen
The last section explored the challenges infrastructure additional to that of electricity
for electrification highlighting why other and liquid fuels. Therefore, on the road,
technologies are likely to be needed hydrogen is most suitable
Highly viable for long range
alongside massHEAVYelectrification of transport. and/or heavier duty applications where there
LONG RANGE
Possibly viable
DUTY
Hydrogen is one such technology and is a captive fleet returning to depots (such as
(see notes)
offers greater energy density than batteries suburban buses) Low or re-energising
viability hubs may
and more rapidLIGHTenergy transfer whilst still support long-range travel (such as heavy
Notes
producing zero TTW GHG emissions.63
DUTY goods vehicles). Light duty vehicles with
1. Depending on
Hydrogen must be produced either from high levels of utilisation
Infrastructuremay also be better
renewable electricity or viaAIR captured
SEA CO RAIL
2
to suited
ROAD to hydrogen-based
2. With in-journey propulsion owing
charging such as
have low WTT GHG emissions (necessitating to the shorter re-energising
overhead cable periods offered
Battery
additional energyHEAVY input versus direct (with Green Tomato
3. EnergyCars’
vector use of the Toyota
SHORT RANGE
DUTY
electricity
electrification transfer), and requires dedicated Mirai an early example).
suitability depends
64
on route / distance
4. Hybrid fuel-battery
approach effective
LIGHT
DUTY 5. For routes that
cannot be electrified
Figure 5: Transport modes suitable for 6. For existing ICE fleet
hydrogen-based propulsion based on range and duty cycle
HEAVY
LONG RANGE
DUTY
LIGHT
DUTY
SEA RAIL ROAD AIR SEA RAIL ROAD
HEAVY
Hydrogen
SHORT RANGE
DUTY
LIGHT
DUTY
29The Future of Mobility in the UK | March 2021
For now, a significant drawback of difficult-to-decarbonise maritime sector
hydrogen use in road transport is the lack where larger vessels, with high utilisation
of infrastructure. The European Automobile and minimal stationary or manoeuvring time,
Manufacturers Association (ACEA) have will be attracted to energy dense, quickly
identified that at least 500 hydrogen refuelling energised hydrogen powertrains. However,
stations are required across Europe by 2030 for the scale required the hydrogen may be
to satisfy hydrogen heavy goods vehicle supplied via an intermediate vector such as
(HGV) energy demands.65 Recognising ammonia. The current limited availability of
that whilst electric drive (motors) should green and blue hydrogen means this must
be widely adopted for their conversion currently be considered a medium-to-
efficiency, multiple complementary input long-term option as addressed in Chapter
energy vectors can be pursued to power 8. However, allowing for development of
them – including hydrogen. hydrogen from all sources (at least low
carbon intensity production technologies)
should lead to earlier deployment at scale of
Finding 7: hydrogen as an option.
Providing public funding support for a Finally, considering air travel, Airbus have
hydrogen HGV commercial demonstration confirmed their ambition to develop the
project in the UK could help overcome early world’s first hydrogen propelled commercial
concerns over a lack of infrastructure. aircraft by 2035.67 The same aforementioned
energy density, transfer, and zero WTT
GHG emissions potential are drivers behind
For non-road transport, hydrogen is attractive Airbus’ pursuit of the concept. It is likely
for rail that is challenging to electrify via OHC, that hydrogen use in aircraft in the coming
with the UK first trial of a hydrogen fuel cell decades will be limited to short-range flights
train taking place in the Midlands.66 where battery electrification is not viable.
Arguably, the largest off-road future A summary of the suitability of hydrogen for
application for hydrogen lies with the transport modes can be found in Figure 5.
304.3.3 Low Carbon Fuels
The potential for both electrification and Over time, low carbon fuels can be replaced
hydrogen shows that – with increasing by a wide range of climate neutral fuels
levels of renewable electricity production (and fuelling models – see 4.4.2) to power
– widespread use HEAVY of zero carbon energy UK transport with Net-Zero emissions. HEAVY
LONG RANGE
LONG RANGE
DUTY DUTY
vectors can become a reality for UK transport Their deployment can continue as needed
in the future. However, the climate challenge depending on climate neutrality, other
demands immediateLIGHT action, and low environmental factors and supply – LIGHT for
DUTY
carbon fuels offer the most readily available example in the case of limited feedstocks DUTY
displacement of the currently predominant, they can be diverted to aviation and
fossil-derived, carbon-based
AIR
fuels/chemical
SEA RAIL marine
ROAD as light duty vehicles are AIR
energy vector. Low carbon fuels for transport electrified. It is for these reasons that one
in the UK are defined
HEAVY by the sustainability of the recommendations by the IMechE
Battery HEAVY
SHORT RANGE
SHORT RANGE
DUTY
criteria set-out in the Renewable Transport in its ‘Accelerating Road
electrification Transport
DUTY
Fuel Obligations Order 2007 (as amended).35 Decarbonisation’ report was for “substantial
LIGHT
investment (similar to that provided LIGHT for
DUTY DUTY
Figure 6: Transport modes most suitable for low carbon fuel propulsion based on range and
duty cycle (assuming limitations to renewable fuel feedstocks/primary energy)
HEAVY
LONG RANGE
DUTY
LIGHT
DUTY
AIR SEA RAIL ROAD
Low-carbon HEAVY
Hydrogen
SHORT RANGE
DUTY
fuels
LIGHT
DUTY
31The Future of Mobility in the UK | March 2021
battery electric vehicles and charging make use of low carbon liquid fuel options,
infrastructure) in sustainable and low-carbon the economic incentive to shift away from
fuel development and associated internal fossil-derived fuels to towards renewable
combustion engine technology.”44 options is currently limited. A product lifecycle
E-fuels may also play a role in the emissions based regulatory framework,
decarbonisation of high energy density embedding WTT GHG emissions into UK
demand sectors such as aviation. Losses fuels policies can accelerate the deployment
incurred via the energy input phase may of renewable fuels in the UK by making low-
be offset by the efficiencies gained in carbon options preferable to more carbon
infrastructure and fuel quality. E-fuels intensive equivalents. In Germany, a WTT
manufactured in markets with greater GHG reduction target for fuels with a carbon
renewable energy resources – such as solar cost for under-delivery of the target has
in North Africa – could be readily imported proven to be an effective means of driving
using existing UK import infrastructure.68 WTT GHG emissions reductions.69
As explored in depth in the TTI Report, The downstream sector has demonstrated
multiple options exist to produce low carbon its support for increased deployment of
fuels; from hydrogenated vegetable oil (HVO), low carbon fuels in the UK in the immediate
to lignocellulosic residues as feedstocks, term by fully supporting the mandated
to the production of e-fuels for hard-to- introduction of E10 petrol and increasing the
decarbonise sectors such as aviation. buy-out price of the Renewable Transport
While vehicle and supply infrastructure could Fuel Obligation (RTFO).
A product lifecycle
Finding 8:
emissions based regulatory Accelerating the transition of liquid
framework, embedding fuels from fossil-derived to biomass-
or renewable energy-derived is a no-
well-to-tank GHG emissions regret option for the UK as almost
into UK fuels policies can all transport modes could be at least
incrementally decarbonised in the short
accelerate the deployment term with such a change (aviation may
be challenged due to strict fuel quality
of renewable fuels in the UK and supply requirements).
32Longer-term, it is likely that low carbon 4.4 Other GHG Reducing Initiatives
fuels will then meet demand for applications In order to meet the challenge of Net-Zero
technically or economically unviable via by 2050, significant GHG reductions may
electricity or hydrogen. Figure 6 summarises also need to be made via other routes if
these possible longer-term low carbon fuel total carbon-neutrality is not possible with
deployment options in the coming decades: the options explored so far. The many
technologies available to reduce the carbon
intensity of fuels have been explored in
detail in other UKPIA reports (Future Vision,
2019, and TTI Report, 2020) but two other
Finding 9:
considerations that are relevant to the
The UK renewable transport fuel
provision of transport energy vectors are
regulations review in 2021 offers the
outlined in this section - offsetting and
opportunity to consolidate and develop
nature-based solutions and alternative
a new UK GHG emissions reduction
fuelling models.
target. Opportunities to incentivise new
technologies should include support
4.4.1 Offsetting and Nature Based
for blue or green hydrogen used in
manufacture of fuels as is already allowed Solutions
in some other countries. Offsetting schemes are growing in popularity
with new consumer offerings being
developed. In recent years, downstream
retailers such as bp and Shell have integrated
carbon offsetting optionality into their fleet
Finding 10: fuel card and consumer loyalty schemes,70,71
Fuel duty offers a primary government enabling drivers to support initiatives
lever to influence consumer behaviour offsetting the CO2 emissions produced from
towards low-carbon liquid fuels if scaled their fuel use.
according to a fuel’s carbon intensity, There are also products seeking to offer
(captive fleets seeking to adopt higher offsetting directly to the consumer, with
blend biofuels may be an early adopter). apps such as VYVE providing the means
for consumers to input their journeys by
different transport types and offset their
transport GHG emissions accordingly.72
Offsetting schemes are not limited to road
transport. In order to reduce its net GHG
emissions impact, the aviation sector has
established the Carbon Offsetting and
Reduction Scheme for International Aviation
33The Future of Mobility in the UK | March 2021
(CORSIA). The scheme is currently voluntary, vehicles, and could also be developed for
with the pilot phase due to commence in 2021 adoption in passenger cars with some form
and with a view to establishing a pan-industry of upfront fuel purchase providing suitable
approach via the International Civil Aviation investment certainty.
Organisation (ICAO).73 Similarly, it may be
that offsetting of emissions can be achieved
through use of technical solutions such as Finding 11:
Direct Air Capture and Storage (DACCS) Developing a viable framework for low
and other carbon capture techniques that carbon energy vector investment contracts
permanently sequester carbon (industrial linked to existing emissions obligations
applications have been explored further in could promote early adoption of low-carbon
UKPIA’s Future Vision report).74 solutions in a technology neutral way.
4.4.2 Alternative Fuelling Models
A current limitation in terms of low carbon
fuels development has been finding sufficient
scale to improve their commercial viability. A
potential solution to this is the implementation
of an investment framework operating in DT PDEHMHMF HMCTRSPW OPNONRDR : ONSDMSH:I
O:SGU:W SN BIHL:SD MDTSP:IHSW AW 1/2/
parallel with an emissions regulation (e.g.
tailpipe emissions standard) that can enable
suitable levels of investment for low carbon
energy scale-up. In turn, the investor (likely a
vehicle manufacturer or fleet operator) may
then claim GHG emissions savings towards
their GHG obligation through fulfilment of
the ‘contract’ – an approach that has been
explored in depth by Cerulogy.75 The wider
policy frameworks that could incentivise
investment in low carbon solutions are
identified in the FuelsEurope “Clean Fuels
For All” report.75,76
Such an approach does not require
restructuring of existing GHG regulatory 1mc FdmdqYshnm ahnetdkr)
frameworks, but would complement them,
:cuYmbdc ahnetdkr rtbg Yr YkfYd()
UYrsd) PnkYq) Uhmc
and provide much needed upfront fiscal
support for more difficult to decarbonise
transport modes such as heavy goods
3435
The Future of Mobility in the UK | March 2021
5
Mobility Paradigm Shift
36In addition to energy vectors transitioning
to renewable sources (see Chapter 4),
consumers’ lifestyles and their associated
approach to transport must also transform
to meet Net-Zero.
The effect of COVID-19 has meant the
UK population has changed its transport
patterns significantly but the long-term
continuation of these changes is uncertain.
Hyper-proximity of townsites and the
development of mobility-as-a-service,
such as ride-sharing companies can offer
efficiencies in transport demand.
Technological advances such as block-
chain, autonomous vehicles, consumer
convenience technology and micro-mobility
like electric scooters will all be critical to
offering a more sustainable way of travelling.
37The Future of Mobility in the UK | March 2021
5. Mobility Paradigm Shift it is unclear whether demand will recover to
pre-COVID levels as remote working patterns
are embedded into company operations.77
The UK faces a significant challenge in
Social distancing requirements will further
displacing and reducing its transport energy
reduce demand on shared transport such
demand with low and eventually Net-Zero
as public transport and pooled/ride-sharing
carbon energy vectors. Technologies explored
schemes. As these requirements are relaxed
in Chapter 3 will go a considerable way to
in the years ahead there may be some
displacing current emissions but reducing
return in demand, however it is unlikely to
overall demand offers an efficient means
return to pre-COVID levels as consumers
to reduce GHGs too. Minimising transport
increasingly adopt remote working and
requirements (such as reduced commuting),
socially-distanced mobility offerings such
integrating transport systems (such as multi-
as private car ownership or mobility-as-a-
modal routing), and aggregating journeys
service (MaaS – see 5.3).78
(such as by pooling and consolidation centres)
While many societal changes seen during
will all play their part in ensuring UK transport
COVID might improve transport sector
is decarbonised as rapidly as possible whilst
efficiency and decarbonisation (WFH,
maintaining options for the consumer and
MaaS, micromobility), the potential shift to
economic growth.
use of private cars could create a number of
In their Innovating to Net-Zero report, the
challenges. After significant improvements
ESC highlight that in addition to energy
in air quality following the introduction of
vectors transitioning to renewable sources,
movement restrictions, NO2 levels in London
consumers’ lifestyles and their associated
appear to be returning back to pre-COVID
approach to transport must also transform
levels.79 This supports the shift to private
to meet Net-Zero.31 This chapter will
car use given overall passenger km travelled
explore some non-energy variables that will
are still reduced compared to pre-COVID.77
influence consumer behaviour and provide
Other less desirable impacts are highlighted
more efficient energy vector use.
in Table 2.
Micromobility, a planned consideration for
5.1 COVID-19 Movement the government in 2020, has been given
Restrictions priority by COVID-19 with the government
National movement restrictions publishing and concluding an e-scooter
implemented to prevent the spread rental consultation and Middlesbrough
of COVID-19 have forced the UK implementing a trial to enable urban mobility
population into practising new means of whilst discouraging consumers returning
working and adopting new demand patterns to passenger car use.80,81 2020 has also
on mobility. Demand for commuting into seen expansion of cycle lanes and a cycle
urban centres – and therefore public repair scheme to encourage consumers to
transport – has significantly decreased and
transition to cycling.82
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