THE FUTURE OF PERTH - NOVEMBER 2020 - MCCRINDLE

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THE FUTURE OF PERTH - NOVEMBER 2020 - MCCRINDLE
Perth
The Future of

November 2020
THE FUTURE OF PERTH - NOVEMBER 2020 - MCCRINDLE
THE FUTURE OF PERTH - NOVEMBER 2020 - MCCRINDLE
Contents
 The future of Perth             04

 The maturing city               06

 Demographic snapshot of Perth   08

 Perth the lifestyle city        10

 A brief history                 14

 Timeline of Perth               16

 Towards 2050                     18

                                       The Future of Perth   03
THE FUTURE OF PERTH - NOVEMBER 2020 - MCCRINDLE
Mark McCrindle
                     The future of Perth
                     In 1983 Perth overtook Adelaide as Australia’s            before, and these trends are most clearly embodied
                     fourth largest city, and it’s fair to say much has        by today’s primary school students, Gen Alpha (born
                     changed in the 37 years since. Australia’s population     since 2010). The future of Perth, and indeed the future
                     has exceeded even the most optimistic growth              of our planet, will be shaped by these children of the
                     expectations, recently surpassing 25 million people,      Millennials who already number more than 3 million
                     and Perth is powering towards being a city of 2.5         in Australia and nearly 10% of Perth’s population.
                     million by 2030.                                          If we want to glimpse the future we need look no
                                                                               further than this emerging generation who have only
                     Perth’s unique geographic positioning on the Swan         known a world of wearable tech, online streaming,
                     coastal plain has led to a sprawling north-south          AI algorithms and highly-personalised educational
                     metropolis drawing comparisons to cities like Los         experiences.
                     Angeles and San Francisco. This growth has brought
                     its share of challenges. State and local governments      In a future where today’s school leavers are projected
                     have had to quickly respond to the growing demand         to have on average 18 different jobs across 6
                     for essential services including healthcare, education    careers in their lifetime, the ability to upskill and
                     and public amenities. But respond they have, in true      adapt to the changing market is essential. Perth’s
                     Aussie fashion, creating world-class hospital and         economic success will depend on its ability to provide
                     medical facilities like Fiona Stanley Hospital. Perth’s   the infrastructure and policy settings to enable
                     schools and universities are internationally-regarded     businesses and workers alike the ability to train,
                     and attract top talent from nearby nations to West        upskill and re-skill. The jobs most in demand in the
                     Aussie shores.                                            coming years will leverage technology in healthcare,
                                                                               professional services, construction, and education
                     The world today is more digitally integrated,             and training. Perth is well-positioned to take hold of
                     culturally diverse, and globally-minded than ever         these emerging opportunities with both hands.

04   The Future of Perth
THE FUTURE OF PERTH - NOVEMBER 2020 - MCCRINDLE
Mark McCrindle

Principal

            The Future of Perth   05
THE FUTURE OF PERTH - NOVEMBER 2020 - MCCRINDLE
Grant Dusting
                     The maturing city
                     The story of Perth over the last few decades has         comparison shows that Western Australia has the
                     been one of a maturing city. The city best known for     highest proportion of its population living in the
                     being “the most isolated city in the world” was put      capital city. Perth is home to a staggering 79% of
                     on the map for many Gen X’ers and Baby Boomers           all West Aussies, much higher than the proportion
                     thanks to the America’s Cup triumph and subsequent       of New South Welshmen (and women) who live in
                     hosting of the event in the 1980s, triggering a          Sydney (65%) or Taswegians who live in Hobart
                     flurry of government infrastructure investment and       (44%). This underscores the significance of Perth not
                     transformation across Fremantle and Perth.               only for the state but also our nation.

                     The mining boom of the 2000s provided a similar          So what does the future hold for Perth as we consider
                     boost for a city that had started to lose some of that   what the city could look like in 2030 and even 2050?
                     earlier lustre. This sentiment was reflected in Lonely   The COVID-19 experience has so far highlighted the
                     Planet’s frank assessment of Perth in the year 2000      location of Western Australia – which has often been
                     as “Dullsville”. But as the resources industry boomed,   a tyranny of distance – has served as a strength. WA’s
                     the population soon followed and successive              ability to manage the COVID-19 health situation has
                     governments undertook significant long-term              so far been exemplary within Australia and indeed
                     infrastructure investments that have forever changed     globally, aided by our location and the unique ability
                     the face of the city and helped Perth cope with an       to tightly manage our borders.
                     explosion of population growth and urban sprawl.
                                                                              Furthermore, as we lift our eyes to the horizon
                     Visitors to Perth bring a perspective that can be lost   and contemplate “the Asian Century”, Perth is
                     on more seasoned sandgropers. Our new arrivals are       strategically positioned as the only Australian
                     greeted by a stunning natural landscape with world-      capital sharing a time zone with China, Singapore,
                     class beaches and a city boasting internationally-       Hong Kong and Malaysia. Combined with the close
                     recognised infrastructure (Perth Arena, Perth Stadium,   geographic proximity, this is significant.
                     Elizabeth Quay and a revitalised Northbridge, to
                     name a few). The refreshed cultural infrastructure has   In an increasingly connected global society, the
                     been put to good use in recent years, with Perth’s       establishment of direct flights to Europe have already
                     annual FRINGE festival now the third largest in the      changed travel patterns for business and leisure alike.
                     world providing an economic boost to the state of        This maturing city still has much more development
                     $100 million annually.                                   left in it, and with Australia’s population growth
                                                                              primarily driven by overseas migration, Perth can
                     We’re a nation obsessed with the sea, and it seems       expect to continue to attract attention on the global
                     this is truer of West Aussies more than anyone else.     stage for years to come.
                     While some may be familiar with the stat that 85% of
                     Australians live within 50km of the coast, a national

06   The Future of Perth
THE FUTURE OF PERTH - NOVEMBER 2020 - MCCRINDLE
Grant Dusting

Director of Strategy &
McCrindle WA Manager

                The Future of Perth   07
THE FUTURE OF PERTH - NOVEMBER 2020 - MCCRINDLE
Demographic
     snapshot of Perth

           Population                                                       Household composition

                 2,085,973            39% born overseas
                                                                                              32%                       25%

                                                                             Couple family                  Couple family
         Gender composition                                                  with children                  without children

                   Female 50%                        Male 50%

                                                                                              22%                       10%

                                                                             Lone person                    Single parent
                                                                             household                      household

           Top migrant countries of birth

                      United Kingdom                                  10%                      4%                        7%

                      New Zealand                                     3%     Group household                Other

                      India                                           2%

                      South Africa                                    2%

                                                                            Generation composition
                      Malaysia                                         1%

                                                                                           Gen Alpha 0-10                   8%

           Religious affiliation

                                                                                           Gen Z 11-25                      19%
           Christianity                                               50%

           Secular Beliefs*                                           33%                  Gen Y 26-40                   23%

           Not Stated                                                 10%
                                                                                           Gen X 41-55                      21%
           Islam                                                      2%

           Buddhism                                                   2%                   Baby Boomers 56-74               21%

           Sikhism                                                     1%
                                                                                           Builders 75+                     9%
           Other                                                      2%

     * include other spiritual beliefs and no religious affiliation

08   The Future of Perth
THE FUTURE OF PERTH - NOVEMBER 2020 - MCCRINDLE
The Future of Perth   09
THE FUTURE OF PERTH - NOVEMBER 2020 - MCCRINDLE
Perth

                  The lifestyle city
                           Stretching from Two Rocks in the north to the Peel Inlet in the south, the
                           friendly capital city of Western Australia covers a total land area of 6,416
                           km2. It is home to more than two million people (2,085,973), making it
                           Australia’s fourth largest capital city by population. Geographically, Perth’s
                           population is evenly divided by the Swan River, with 49% living north of the
                           river and 51% living in the south. Despite spanning more than 6,000 km2,
                           the average daily commute time for workers in Perth is just 59 minutes, more
                           than 10% lower than the average for mainland capital cities (66 minutes).

                           Four in five Western Australians (79%) live in Perth, making Perth the
                           capital city with the highest proportion of its state’s residents in Australia.
                           Incidentally, the capital city with the second highest proportion of its state’s
                           residents is also Perth’s closest neighbour. Adelaide is home to 1.3 million
                           residents, encompassing 77% of South Australia’s population. Despite being
                           Perth’s closest neighbour, the two capital cities are separated by more than
         Four in five
                           2,000 km, the equivalent of a 28-hour road trip, crossing the state border
         Western
                           and time zones along the way.
         Australians
         live in Perth

10   The Future of Perth
49%

51%

      Map Key

         North          South

                 The Future of Perth   11
Map Key

               WA
                           Proportion of residents living
              79%          in capital cities

              Perth
                           Mean daily commuting times
            59 minutes     of employed persons

                                                                                                                WA

                                                                                                               79%

                                            Perth

                                        59 minutes

                           Wilkins, R, Laβ, I, Butterworth, P, & Vera-Toscano, E 2019, The Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey:
                           Selected Findings from Waves 1 to 17. Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research, University of Melbourne.

12   The Future of Perth
Mainland capital city

                                                       66 minutes

NT

60%

                         QLD

                         49%

                                                               Brisbane

                                                            67 minutes

      SA

     78%

                               NSW

                                                   Sydney
                               66%
                                                  71 minutes

             VIC
 Adelaide

56 minutes   77%

                                     Melbourne

                                     65 minutes

                   TAS

               44%

                                                               The Future of Perth   13
A brief history
                      The race to a million
                      The relationship between Perth and Adelaide extends beyond the present day. Although Perth’s population
                      now comfortably outnumbers Adelaide’s by 726,213, this was not always the case. In 1982, Adelaide was
                      the fourth largest city with a population of 962,500. Due to economic growth, however, Perth reached the
                      one million milestone in 1985, a year before Adelaide reached this milestone in 1986. Since then, Perth’s
                      population has grown much faster than Adelaide’s, with Perth’s population reaching two million in 2014,
                      while Adelaide’s sits just above 1.3 million.

                      In fact, population projections done based on the 1987 population had estimated the upper bound of the
                      Western Australia population to be 2,536,910 in 2019, almost 85,000 shy of the actual population of Western
                      Australia in 2019 (2,621,680). South Australia on the other hand, was estimated to have an upper bound of
                      1,786,078 in 2019, exceeding the actual 2019 population (1,751,693) by 34,000.

                      Population of Perth and Adelaide

                                                                                                                                             Perth           1.05M

                                                                                                            Perth         1.02M
                                                                            Perth        995.6k
                                           Perth        976.8k
              Adelaide     962.5k

                                                                                                            Adelaide      994k               Adelaide         1M
                                           Adelaide     973.4k              Adelaide     984.3k
              Perth        952.4k

                            1982                         1983                             1984                            1985                               1986

                                         Australia Bureau of Statistics 1988 Australian Demographics Statistics, Mar 1988, cat. no. 3101.0, ABS, Canberra.

14   The Future of Perth
Perth       2.5M

                                                                          Perth         2.09M

                          Perth        2.02M

                                                                                                                          Adelaide    1.49M

                                                                          Adelaide      1.36M

                          Adelaide      1.3M

                                         2014                                       Present day                                        2030

Australian Bureau of Statistics 1985, Projections of the Populations of Australia, States and Territories 1984 to 2021,
cat. no. 3222.0, ABS, Canberra.
                                                                                                                                     The Future of Perth   15
The timeline of Perth
                                       The Noongar people are the first inhabitants of the
                                            south-west corner of Western Australia.

          The first European settlers arrive led by
          Captain James Stirling. His Surveyor-
                                                              1829
          General mapped out townsites for
          Guildford, Perth and Fremantle.

                                                                          The first suburban railway line opens
          First Premier of Western Australia – Sir
                                                              1881        connecting Fremantle, Perth and
          John Forrest.
                                                                          Guildford.

          Discovering of gold in Western Australia
          triggers a gold rush transforming the               1890
          struggling British colony. The population of
          Perth boomed and WA's population more
          than tripled in size in one decade, from
          53,177 in 1891 to 193,601 in 1901.
                                                                          Perth’s population was 154,873 (1/13 its
                                                              1920
                                                                          current size).

          Perth is connected to Adelaide and the
                                                              1930
          rest of Australia by a telephone line.

                                                                          Gordon Stephenson and John Alister
                                                                          Hepburn prepare a plan for the Perth
                                                              1955        metropolitan region, which has been
                                                                          instrumental in Perth's subsequent
          Opening of the Narrows bridge providing
                                                                          development.
          direct connection for Perth's northern and
                                                              1959
          southern suburbs. The largest bridge of its
          kind in the world at the time.
                                                                          Perth becomes known as the "City of
                                                                          Light" following astronaut John Glenn's
                                                                          orbit around the Earth. Glenn repeated
                                                              1962
                                                                          this line when passing again in 1998.

                                                                          Perth hosts the Commonwealth Games.
          Perth's Telethon is established.                    1968

                                                                          The Western Australian yacht Australia
                                                                          II took the America’s Cup from the
                                                              1983        Americans after 132 years,5 the same year
                                                                          that Perth took the title of 4th largest
                                                                          capital city from Adelaide.
          Perth's population reaches one million.             1985

16   The Future of Perth
The West Coast Eagles enters the
                                                                                  1987               Australian Football League (previously
                                                                                                     known as the Victorian Football League).

       Carmen Lawrence becomes the first
                                                                                  1990
       woman to be Premier of an Australian state.
                                                                                                     The West Coast Eagles become the first non-
                                                                                  1992               Victorian team to win the AFL premiership.
                                                                                                     They won again two years later in 1994.
       The State Government separated the Perth
       central business district from its surrounding
                                                                                  1994
       suburban districts, creating a new City of
       Perth local government authority.
                                                                                                     The Fremantle Dockers enter the AFL as
                                                                                  1995
                                                                                                     Western Australia's second football team.

       The first desalination plant in Australia
                                                                                  2006
       commenced operation in Kwinana.

                                                                                                     The opening of the new Perth to
                                                                                  2007
                                                                                                     Mandurah Railway.

       Beginning of Peth’s three-year streak as
                                                                                  2009
       Australia’s fastest growing capital city8

                                                                                  2014               Opening of Fiona Stanley Hospital.

       Perth's population reaches two million,
       coinciding with the official opening of                                    2016
       Elizabeth Quay.                                                                               Qantas launches the first direct Perth to
                                                                                                     London flights.
                                                                                  2018
                                                                                                     The new Perth stadium (Optus Stadium)
       Perth Wildcats’        34th   straight appearance                                             is opened.
       to the NBL Finals.                                                         2020

       The West Coast Eagles achieve a record
       membership tally of 100,776 and become
       the first non-Victorian AFL team to top the                                                   Perth's population set to reach
                                                                                  2042
       AFL membership tally.                                                                         three million.

Channel 7 Telethon Trust 2020, The History of Telethon, Telethon 7,        Stephenson, G & Hepburn, J 1955, Plan for the Metropolitan Region
Perth.                                                                     Perth and Fremantle: Western Australia.
Maritime History Department 2014, Australia II, 1983 winner of the         O’Brien, S 2009, Perth’s Narrows Bridge celebrates 50 years, Media
America’s Cup, Western Australian Museum                                   Statements: Minister’s office, Government of Western Australia.
AFL 2019, History, West Coast Eagles, AFL.                                 Western Australia Museum 2012, City of light – 50 years in Space,
AFL 2019, Our History, Fremantle Football Club, AFL.                       Government of Western Australia.
Australia Bureau of Statistics 2020, Australian Demographics Statistics,   Museum of Perth 2020, 1962 Commonwealth and Paraplegic Games.
Sep 2019, cat. no. 3101.0, ABS, Canberra.                                  John Curtin University 2020, About Carmen Lawrence, Carmen
Australian Bureau of Statistics 2018, Population Projections, Australia,   Lawrence Biography.
2017 (base) – 2066, cat. no. 3222.0, ABS, Canberra.                        AFL 2019, Classic Clashes: 1992 Elimination Final v Hawks, West Coast
South West Aboriginal Land and Sea Council 2020, Connection to             Eagles, AFL.
Country, Kaartdijin Noongar – Noongar Knowledge: Sharing Noongar           City of Vincent 2020, History: About Vincent.
Culture.                                                                   Water Corporation 2020, Perth Seawater Desalination Plant.
National Museum Australia 2020, Defining Moments: Founding of Perth.       Qantas 2020, Perth to London, non-stop.
Public Transport Authority of Western Australia 2018, Our History.         Optus Stadium 2020, About Optus Stadium.
Western Australia Museum 2017, The Rush for Gold, Government of
Western Australia.
The Daily News December 17, 1930, East-West ‘Phone, Perth, W.A.
                                                                                                                                                   The Future of Perth   17
18   The Future of Perth
Towards 2050
The growing city of Perth
Growth of more than 346,000 over the past                         external environments. While we can all hope
decade                                                            that global pandemics will not become a regular
                                                                  occurrence, business disruptions will continue
As Australia’s fourth most populous capital                       indefinitely as the pace of social, demographic,
city, Perth’s population growth over the past                     generational and technological change keep
decade is also a fitting fourth in Australia. From a              moving at lightspeed around us.
population of 1.7 million in 2009, Perth has grown
in number by more than 346,000 residents to its                   In the short term, COVID-19 and the resulting
current population of 2,085,973. This growth also                 restricted international borders has impaired
accounts for 9% of Australia’s total population                   Australia’s population growth, bringing to a halt
growth over that period.                                          at least temporarily the net overseas migration
                                                                  component that was comprising 60% of
Perth growing in the south and north west                         Australia’s annual population growth.

Over the past decade, the population in Perth's                   Given Western Australia’s annual net overseas
south east, south west, and north west have each                  migration of 18,000 people, annual population
increased by almost 100,000 residents. The north                  growth will reduce by 57% should international
east has been lagging behind, with population                     border restrictions continue for an entire year.
growth just shy of 50,000 people. Recent
infrastructure investment in major road and rail                  Notwithstanding potential temporary impacts
transport routes, however, are facilitating a host of             of COVID-19, the population growth outlook for
new land developments.                                            future years remains positive. Perth’s demand
                                                                  for skills and its attractiveness as a lifestyle city
While Mandurah to the south contains the                          will continue to act as pull factors for migration
smallest residential population (103,467), and often              through this decade and beyond. Western
considered a separate city, it has been growing                   Australia’s success with managing COVID-19, its
at the fastest rate over the past ten years (27%).                economic opportunities and affordable lifestyles
Mandurah is growing twice as fast as Perth – Inner                may even drive up the interstate migration
(13%), the slowest growing area in Perth.                         component of population growth.

Growth in a COVID-19 world                                        As we look at the projected population towards
                                                                  2030 and 2050, it is likely that the effect of the
The year 2020 so far has seen an unprecedented                    global pandemic will have only slight impact
use of the term unprecedented. The COVID-19                       on the population figures. But could the “most
pandemic and associated economic recession has                    isolated city in the world” become Perth’s biggest
disrupted much of the normal ways of doing and                    marketing tool in a COVID-19 world? Only time
planning. More than ever organisations have been                  will tell.
forced to adapt and respond quickly to changing

Tudge, A 2019, Congestion solutions for Perth's north-east underway, Media releases, Minister office.

                                                                                                                The Future of Perth   19
Population growth in Greater Perth

                           Suburb                            2009                 2019            # Change           % Change

                           Perth - South East               432,884             521,865              88,981               21%

                           Perth - South West                352,911            436,986              84,075               24%

                           Perth - North West                487,331            570,930              83,599               17%

                           Perth - North East               222,378             269,883              47,505               21%

                           Mandurah                          81,585             103,467              21,882               27%

                           Perth - Inner                    162,253             182,842              20,589               13%

     Largest suburbs (SA2) by population

                            #        Suburb                                                                                2019

                            1        Ellenbrook                                                                           43,594

                            2        Baldivis                                                                             40,512

                            3        Perth City                                                                           36,226

                            4        Madeley - Darch - Landsdale                                                          29,146

                            5        Wanneroo                                                                             27,378

                            6        Rivervale - Kewdale - Cloverdale                                                     27,315

                            7        Forrestdale - Harrisdale - Piara Waters                                              26,344

                            8        Dianella                                                                             24,939

                            9        Butler - Merriwa - Ridgewood                                                         24,474

                            10       Canning Vale - East                                                                  24,353

                    Statistical Areas Level 2 (SA2s) are designed by the Australian Bureau of Statistics to represent a
                    community that interacts together socially and economically.

20   The Future of Perth
Perth

North West

             9

                                    Perth
                 5
                                  North East
                     4        1

                     8
  Perth

  Inner              3
                         6

  Perth                  10

South West               7
                                    Perth

                                  South East

                 2

                                  Mandurah

                                            The Future of Perth   21
Increasing family orientation
             Across Perth, the largest proportion of households are occupied by couple families
             with children (32%), followed by couple families without children (25%) and lone
             person households (22%). Combined with one parent families (10%), however, more
             than two in five households in Perth are families with children (42%).

             Perth’s high degree of family orientation is also increasing. The growth in family
             households over the past decade accounts for almost half of all household growth in
             Perth (47%), leading also to the growth in young people and students.

                  Household growth over the past decade

                                         Couple family without
                                                                          +39,038
                                         children

                                         Couple family
                                                                          +55,923
                                         with children

                                         One parent family                 +12,567

                                         Other family                       +1,690

                                         Lone person household            +20,900

                                         Group household                    +6,792

                                         Other household                    +8,841

22   The Future of Perth
Independent sector leading the
fast growth of students in Perth
There has been an increase of more than 70,000 students in Perth over the past
decade. Proportionally, this represents an increase of one in three students (33%)
over just ten years. This fast growth in students, however, is not uniform across the
sectors.

Three in five students in Perth attend a government school (62%), which has been
growing at the same rate as the overall number of students (33%). The number of
students attending independent schools on the other hand, is growing faster than
both the government and Catholic sector. The independent sector’s growth rate
of 41% is eight percentage points faster than the government sector (33%) and 1.5
times as fast as the Catholic sector (28%), showcasing Perth’s increasing preference
towards independent education.

     Student growth over the past decade

          Government                   Catholic                 Independent

             +33%                       +28%                        +41%

     Student affiliation by proportion

                                  Independent      19%

         Catholic    20%                                    Government      62%

                                                                             The Future of Perth   23
24   The Future of Perth
Growing cultural and linguistic diversity
Perth’s population growth has been partly driven by overseas migration. At present, almost two in five Perth
residents were born overseas (39%), and one in five speak a language other than English at home (21%).

Perth’s cultural and linguistic diversity is also growing. Over the past ten years, the number of Perth residents born
overseas has been increasing at 2.5 times the rate of Australian-born residents (50% cf. 19% 2006-2016). Linguistic
diversity has been growing at an even faster rate. The number of residents who speak a language other than
English at home has been growing more than five times as fast as residents who only speak English (93% cf. 18%).

     Residents born overseas                                    Residents who speak a language other
                                                                than English at home

            Born in Australia ●   Born Overseas ●                       English ●     Other Language ●

                                                                                    21%
                           39%    61%
                                                                                          79%

       #         Top 10 migrant countries of birth                      Top 10 non-English languages

       1         United Kingdom               201,199                   Mandarin                       45,654

       2         New Zealand                   61,332                   Italian                        26,752

       3         India                         46,665                   Vietnamese                      19,397

       4         South Africa                  35,260                   Cantonese                       18,831

       5         Malaysia                      28,226                   Arabic                          13,740

       6         China                         25,899                   Tagalog                         12,335

       7         Philippines                   24,621                   Punjabi                         11,784

       8         Italy                          17,473                  Afrikaans                       11,389

       9         Ireland                       16,108                   Hindi                           10,173

       10        Vietnam                        15,122                  Indonesian                      10,119

                                                                                                          The Future of Perth   25
Economic
                           snapshot of Perth
                                      Being the capital city with the largest proportion of its state’s
                                      residents, Perth is the main driver of Western Australia’s economy
                                      which contributes $285.6 billion per year towards Australia's Gross
                                      Domestic Product (GDP). Per capita, WA’s Gross State Product (GSP)
                                      is 42% higher than the nation’s GDP per capita ($109,565 cf. $77,347
                                      during 2018-19FY). Mining accounts for 30% of WA’s GSP, followed
                                      by business and property services (9%) and construction (8%). WA’s
                                      involvement in the global market is also evident with merchandise
                                      exports contributing to more than half of the state’s GSP (58%). As
                                      the global market continues to open up, it is likely that the growing
                                      economy will keep step with the population increase on Australia’s
                                      west coast.

                                            WA GSP v. Aus GDP

                                         WA GSP per                                         Australia GDP
                                                            $109,565          $77,347
                                             capita                                         per capita

                                             Western Australia produces an average economic
                                                output per person that is 42% higher than
                                                          the national average.

                           Department of Jobs, Tourism, Science and Innovation 2020, Western Australia Economic Profile
                           April 2020, Government of Western Australia.

26   The Future of Perth
Proportion of GSP

                             $146.1 B       Goods producing industries
                                                                                                     9%

                             $112.4 B       Service industries
                                                                                                39%          51%

                              $27.1 B       Dwelling ownership and other items

                      Top industries

                                          Mining                                                           $ 103.1 B

                                          Business and property services                                    $ 25.2 B

                                          Construction                                                       $ 17.6 B

                                          Retail and wholesale trade                                         $ 16.8 B

                                          Dwelling ownerships                                                $ 16.1 B

                      Top export markets

                          China                 Japan                  UK               South Korea            Singapore

                         $96.1 B                $24 B                $12.4 B              $10.3 B                $7.4 B

Australian Bureau of Statistics 2019, Australian National Accounts: State Accounts, 2018-19, cat. no. 5220.0, ABS, Canberra.
Australian Bureau of Statistics 2019, Australia National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product, Jun 2019, cat. no.
5206.0, ABS, Canberra.
Australian Bureau of Statistics 2019, International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia, Sep 2019, cat. no. 5368.0, ABS, Canberra.

                                                                                                                               The Future of Perth   27
Increase in jobs as the
                           population grows
                           With an ever-expanding economy, the number of jobs in Perth is
                           also projected to increase. Over the next five years, the number of
                           jobs in Perth is projected to increase by 70,043. This would comprise
                           more than 86% of total job growth in Western Australia (81,031)
                           in this time. Industries expected to experience the largest growth
                           include health care and social assistance (13,409), professional,
                           scientific and technical services (11,094) and mining (9,673).

                                Job growth over the next five years

                                  Perth        70,043           10,988      Rest of WA

28   The Future of Perth
Department of Jobs and Small Business Projections

                   Industry                                                                2019           2024

                   Health Care and Social Assistance                                    132,576         145,985    +13,409

                   Professional, Scientific and Technical Services                       95,122         106,216    +11,094

                   Construction                                                         101,615         103,259     +1,644

                   Retail Trade                                                          99,691         101,213     +1,522

                   Education and Training                                                89,366          97,493     +8,127

                   Mining                                                                75,139          84,812    +9,673

                   Accommodation and Food Services                                       75,136           81,713   +6,577

                   Public Administration and Safety                                      67,009          73,454    +6,445

                   Manufacturing                                                         70,435          72,608     +2,173

                   Transport, Postal and Warehousing                                      51,137         53,251     +2,114

                   Other Services                                                        47,015          50,898    +3,883

                   Administrative and Support Services                                   35,189          35,987      +798

                   Wholesale Trade                                                       32,226          32,555      +329

                   Financial and Insurance Services                                      25,881         25,500        -381

                   Arts and Recreation Services                                         23,005           24,347     +1,342

                   Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services                                18,217          18,175      -42

                   Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services                            16,239           17,775    +1,536

                   Information Media and Telecommunications                              12,205          12,359      +154

                   Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing                                      8,449           8,093      -356

                   Total (All Industries)                                            1,075,650         1,145,693   70,043

Department of Employment, Skills, Small and Family Business 2019, Regional Projections – interactive
tool, Labour Market Information Portal, Australian Government.
                                                                                                                        The Future of Perth   29
10

                                                                                9

     Infrastructure supports and
     boosts population growth
     Along with demographic and economic changes, Perth is also undergoing
     massive infrastructure transformation. Billions of dollars are being
     invested in significant infrastructure across the city. With the trajectory of
     growth and transformation, and the expanding role that Perth will play in
     Australia’s increasingly globalised economy, future infrastructure projects
     are set to provide a platform as well as further pull factor for population
     growth for Perth as it marches toward 3 million.
                                                                                                   8

                                                                       11

                                                      6

                                                                                      4                7
                                             2

                                                                            3
                                                                   1

                                                                                              12

                                                                                          5

30       The Future of Perth
Major developments

  1 - Elizabeth Quay                                             8 - Morley - Ellenbrook Line
  •   Total investment - $2.62 billion                           • The 21km rail line extending existing railway line at
  •   800 new dwellings - 400 new hotel rooms                      Bayswater right through Perth’s eastern suburbs to
  •   200,000 m2 commercial/office space                           Ellenbrook. Perth’s largest single public transport project
  •   25,000 m2 retail                                             since the Mandurah Line, with new stations including
  •   Staged completion through 2020 and beyond                    Ellenbrook, Whiteman Park, Malaga, Noranda and Morley
                                                                 • Expected commencement 2021

  2 - Perth City Link
                                                                 9 - Northlink WA
  • Total investment - $5.3 billion
  • Mixed use development reconnecting the CBD and 		            • Total investment – $1 billion
    Northbridge and sinking of the rail line to create a world   • Providing a key road connection in Western Australia’s
    class transit hub                                              freight network, constructing 37km of new highway from
  • Staged completion through to 2020 and beyond                   Morley to Muchea, north of Perth
                                                                 • Completed April 2020

  3 - Riverside (East Perth)
                                                                 10 - Yanchep rail extension
  •   Total investment - $2.11 billion
  •   4,000 new dwellings                                        • Total investment – $531 million
  •   90,000 m2 of commercial/retail space                       • Extending the Joondalup line 14.5km from Butler to
  •   Staged completion through to 2020 and beyond                 Yanchep supporting the growing northern suburbs
                                                                 • New rail stations at Alkimos, Eglinton and Yanchep
                                                                 • Expected completion late 2022

  4 - Perth Stadium

  • Total investment - $820.7 million
                                                                 11 - Perth City Deal
  • 60,000 seat sports stadium
  • Public open spaces, cultural attractions 			                 • Total investment – $1.5 billion
    and residential developments                                 • Announced in September 2020, a partnership between
  • Opened January 2018                                            the Commonwealth Government, State Government and
                                                                   City of Perth is set to revitalise the Perth CBD
                                                                 Includes:
                                                                 • Moving Edith Cowan University law and business schools
  5 - Byford Rail Extension
                                                                   into the CBD along with the Western Australian Academy
  • Total investment – $481 million                                of Performing Arts (WAAPA).
  • Extending the Armadale line 8km through the Shire of         • Murdoch University to create a vertical campus including
    Serpentine-Jarrahdale, Australia’s fastest growing local       an eSports Stadium linked with Singapore and East Asia
    government area over the past decade (2009-2019)             • Curtin University will build a CBD knowledge
  • Final business case expected to be completed late 2020         and innovation precinct
                                                                 • Redevelopment of Perth Concert Hall into
                                                                   a world-class music venue
                                                                 • Set to bring more than 25,000 students and
  6 - New Western Australian Museum
                                                                   staff into the CBD
  • Total investment - $428 million                              • ECU completion slated for 2025. Phased
  • Cultural attraction/retail                                     construction through to 2030
  • Completion November 2020

                                                                 12 - Thornlie - Cockburn Link
  7 - Forrestfield - Airport Link
                                                                 • Total investment - $716 million
  • Total investment – $1.86 billion                             • Perth’s first east-west cross line connection connecting
  • An 8.5km three-station railway providing an 		                 the existing Thornlie line to Cockburn Central station
    underground rail link to the Perth airport and 		              on the Mandurah line
    creating a 20-minute train ride between the city and the     • Will create new rail stations at Nicholson Road and
    eastern suburbs                                                Ranford Road in Canning Vale
  • Expected to open late 2021                                   • Construction commenced 2020, expected
                                                                   completion 2023
32   The Future of Perth
Towards 2050
Population growth

                                     2030                               2040                               2050

                              WA               Perth             WA               Perth             WA              Perth

Population           3,084,964              2,502,885    3,558,535             2,930,338    4,023,264             3,358,567

Annual growth               47,796            42,646         46,991              42,848         46,081               42,741

Median age                    38.3               37.3            38.7               37.7            39.3              38.3

Generations

                                     2030                               2040                               2050

                     Age        WA            Perth      Age        WA           Perth       Age       WA            Perth

 Builders            85+         2%              2%      95+       0.1%            0.1%     105+    0.001%          0.001%

 Boomers            66-84        11%             11%    76-94           5%          5%     86-104          1%           2%

 Gen X              51-65       18%             17%     61-75       13%             12%     71-85          7%           7%

 Gen Y              36-50        21%            21%     46-60       19%             19%    56-70       16%             15%

 Gen Z              21-35       22%             23%     31-45      22%             22%      41-55      20%            20%

 Gen Alpha           6-20       19%             19%     16-30      20%              21%    26-40       22%             23%

 Gen Beta             0-5        8%              8%       1-15      19%             19%     11-25      19%             19%

 Gen Gamma              -            -            -         0           1%           1%      0-10      14%             14%

                                                                                                                The Future of Perth   33
How did we do this?

                  By collating and analysing data in the realms of demography, economy, and society, we were able to
                  put together a summary of Perth and examine the interactions between major and minor trends that
                  are influencing the friendly city.

                  Informed by historical trends, government policies, strategic plans, and mathematical modelling, we
                  project forward with confidence to uncover the future of Perth.

                  What now?

                  We expect this report to be used by leaders in business, policy makers, developers, and those guiding
                  and shaping the next generation in Perth. We hope that this tool is useful as we collectively work
                  together in seeing Perth continue to grow and thrive as a key part of the Asia-Pacific region.

                  By understanding the growing and changing population of Perth, decision makers will have the
                  opportunity to lead confidently into the future.

                  How to use data analysis in planning for the future?

                  Knowing the future of an area allows us to lead with confidence. Making informed, evidenced-based
                  decisions help us stay a step ahead. There is no shortage of information out there, the knowledge
                  and understanding of what to do with this information and how to apply it, however, can at times feel
                  overwhelming.

                  If you are looking to grow, you may have a hunch about an area for your next business decision, but
                  you want more information before you commit. In many instances demographic data, industry trends,
                  and shifting population are strong indicators of the viability of new initiatives. By gathering evidence-
                  based, location-focused insights, your organisation will be equipped to make strategic decisions with
                  confidence and conviction.

                  Who are we?

                  For more than a decade, McCrindle has been helping provide a clearer picture by using data to inform
                  strategic planning and crucial decisions. We want to help you lead confidently towards 2030.

                  Through a Site Analysis we will be able to provide a clearer picture of the unique qualities of an area
                  now and into the future. We deliver a key insights report, an online interactive map of your area, and a
                  boardroom presentation to unpack the key insights and applications of the demographic analysis. We
                  don’t just provide the information, we guide the journey.

34   The Future of Perth
Let's get started!
 Getting started in uncovering a clearer picture for your strategic
 decision-making is easy.

 You can contact our Perth office by email or phone using the
 contact details on the back page.

                                                                      The Future of Perth   35
Get in touch
Phone     1800 873 637                   mccrindleresearch

Web       mccrindle.com.au               mccrindle_

Email     info@mccrindle.com.au          mccrindleresearch

Address   Perth office                   mccrindle
          Suite 8, 126 Broadway,
          Crawley, WA 6009

          Sydney office
          Suite 105, 29 Solent Circuit
          Norwest, NSW 2153
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