The Impact of Technology on the Media Industry - Andrew M Skinner Manager. Technology Consulting Accenture
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The Impact of Technology on the Media Industry Andrew M Skinner Manager. Technology Consulting Accenture
“People tend to
overestimate what can be
done in one year and to
underestimate what can
be done in five to ten
years.”
J. C. R. Licklider, 1965
“Grandfather of the Internet”
Copyright © 2007 Accenture . All Rights Reserved. Slide 2Some longer term ones just don’t go
far enough
Scientists from the RAND Corporation
have created this model to illustrate how
a “home computer” could look like in
the year 2004.
IN
TE However the needed technology will not
RN be economically feasible for the average
home. Also scientists readily admit that
ET the computer will require not yet
F AK invented technology to actually work,
but 50 years from now scientific
E progress is expected to solve these
problems.
With teletype interfaces and the Fortran
language, the computer will be easy to
use.
Copyright © 2007 Accenture . All Rights Reserved. Slide 3Some longer term ones just don’t go
far enough
“I think there is a world market
for about five computers"
Remark attributed to Thomas J. Watson
(Chairman of the Board of International
Business Machines), 1943.
Copyright © 2007 Accenture . All Rights Reserved. Slide 4Some short term statements go a
little too far
“This is a revolutionary product
that has the chance to really
impact people's lives, This is
the ultimate digital device.”
Steve Jobs, Apple CEO on iPhone
Copyright © 2007 Accenture . All Rights Reserved. Slide 5In 2000 were you expecting…
15,000 songs in
your pocket, 60 23.4% of homes A search bar as the
days of continual time-shifting 60% of entry point to the
music while awake TV content internet
An Online Game Never needing to
Free phone calls would be the 77th delete files on your
PC to free up
globally richest country space*
Copyright © 2007 Accenture . All Rights Reserved. Slide 6
* Apart from in your 128 Mb email accountIn 2012 will you be expecting…
Going to the video shop to No scheduled TV The internet developing
get “the movies”, not just channels, watch what from mainly text content
one but all of them and only you want, when you to a full multi-media
paying for those you watch. want to. experience
People earning a living
Telco’s becoming true online in Virtual Not having to delete
anything from your fridge
media organisations communities !!
Copyright © 2007 Accenture . All Rights Reserved. Slide 7The Impact of Technology on the Media Industry Andrew M Skinner Manager. Technology Consulting Accenture
So what media are people actually
consuming ?
+3
Computer
Phone
+2
% change in share
+1 Radio
Music
0 Film
-1 Television
Magazine Books
-2
-3 Newspapers
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Source: ZenithOptimedia % of average persons media time
Copyright © 2007 Accenture . All Rights Reserved. Slide 9Households that
receive about 60 TV
channels usually watch
only 15.
Households whose systems can
receive 96 TV channels (around the
US national average) actually watch
... 15."
Source: Steven Levy, "Television Reloaded", Newsweek, May 30, 2005, p. 55
Copyright © 2007 Accenture . All Rights Reserved. Slide 10Media Consumption today
The concept of the long tail
Frequency
Mass Market Break even
(Demand)
NicheLong TailBreak even
Market
Products
Copyright © 2007 Accenture . All Rights Reserved. (Queries, Songs, etc) Slide 11Copyright © 2007 Accenture . All Rights Reserved.
10
15
20
25
0
5
BBC 1
CHANNEL 4/S4C
Source:
five
television broadcasting
Demonstration of the long tail in UK
Sky Sports 1
ITV 3
UKTV G old
E4
BBC News 24
© BARB Ltd 2007
Sky Three
Sky Sports News
UKTV History
Sky Movies 1
Hallmark
More4
UKTV Drama
BBC 4
Disney Channel
Five Life
The Hits
Sky Movies 2
Sky Sports 3
Bravo
CITV
Film4 +1
Nickelodeon
Paramount
TMF
Sky Movies 5
Sky Movies 7
Sk y Sports Extra
Cartoon Network
Discovery Real Time
FX
Magic TV
Nic kelodeon Replay
Paramount 2
TCM
UKTV Style
Sky Cinema 1
Sky Movies 9
Sky Premiership Plus
Animal Planet +1
Bid TV
Challenge TV +1
Crime & Inv estigation
Disc ov ery Home & Health
Discovery Real Time Ex tra
Discovery Travel & Living
Disney Cinemagic + 1
Euros port
FTN
5%
The History Channel
10 %
All other Channels
ITV2 + 1
3%
Kerrang!
Men And Motors
MTV Bas e
7%
MTV Hits
National G eographic +1
Brav o 2
Pric e Drop TV
Sc i-Fi Channel+1
23 %
The Biography Channel
4%
Tiny Pop
Trouble
True Movies
UKTV Bright Ideas
UKTV Doc umentary +1
UKTV Food + 1
UKTV Style +1
Zone Horror
17 %
B4
Jetix +1
MTV2
The Vault
Zone Reality+1
Sk y Travel +1
Sky Travel Shop
Bliss
Movies 4 Men 2
BBC Parliament
21 %
Cartoon Network Too
Channel U
4%
Community Channel
Discovery Kids
7%
Eat Cinema
Ex treme Sports Channel
G olf Channel TV
ITV Play
Life Showcase
Motors TV
Rock world TV
National G eographic Adv.
Bubblehits
Real Es tate TV
The Trav el Channel
Slide 12
TWC
UKTV G 2 +1
MTV Flux
Zone Reality ExtraAn estimated 1.08
billion people use the
Internet as of
September 18th, 2006
The global population of 6.5 billion means that
only 16.7% of the worlds population have
access to the internet
Source: the Big Picture, 2006
Copyright © 2007 Accenture . All Rights Reserved. Slide 13In 1997, Bharat and
Broder estimated the
size of the indexed Web
at 200 million pages
This figure was revise and update to estimated
size of the indexable Web to at least 11.5 billion
pages as of the end of January 2005
Source: K.Bharat and A.Broder, A technique for measuring the relative size and overlap of public web search engines [WWW1998]
The indexable Web is More than 11.5 billion pages. Gulli & Signorini, 2005
Copyright © 2007 Accenture . All Rights Reserved. Slide 14Connectivity to the Internet
500,000
Total Internet Hosts
400,000
Internet Hosts (000's)
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
Source: ISC Domain Survey: Number of Internet Hosts. © ISC, Inc.
Internet User breakdown Penetration of geography
North America 69.4 %
2% 1% Africa
21 %
3% Asia Oceania 53.5 %
8%
Europe Europe 38.6 %
Latin America
Latin America 16.0 %
29 % Middle East
36 %
North America Asia 10.5 %
Oceania Middle East 10.0 %
Africa 3.5 %
Source: Copyright © 2007, www.internetworldstats.com
0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 70.00% 80.00%
Copyright © 2007 Accenture . All Rights Reserved. Slide 15
Source: Copyright © 2007, www.internetworldstats.comTop Global Web Properties
1. Microsoft 740,984
2. Google 508,659
3. Yahoo 494,170
4. Time Warner 260,387
5. eBay 251,423
6. Wikipedia 164,675
7. Amazon 151,033
8. Fox Interactive 135,730
9. CNET Networks 114,940
10. Ask Network 113,881
Source: Total Unique Visitors (000), Age 15+ * December 2006 Total Worldwide - Home and Work Locations.
comScore World Metrix
Copyright © 2007 Accenture . All Rights Reserved. Slide 16Top Ten Web Brand
Average time per user per month
1. AOL 5:27:46
2. Yahoo! 3:09:41
3. Fox Interactive 1:52:54
4. MSN 1:52:06
5. eBay 1:49:13
6. Google 1:04:21
7. Microsoft 0:44:14
8. Amazon 0:27:49
9. Ask Network 0:24:51
10. MapQuest 0:12:11
Source: Nielsen//NetRatings
Copyright © 2007 Accenture . All Rights Reserved. Slide 17The light bulb was not
invented by the candle
industry looking to
improve output.
Owners of established
technologies tend to focus on
making incremental
improvements to their own
products, avoiding the potential
threat to their own businesses.
Copyright © 2007 Accenture . All Rights Reserved. Slide 18Digital Disruptions
Participation Mobility
The future is a world where
individuals create content and The future is a world where
share it with each other without individuals access information
the need for traditional and services on multiple types of
broadcasters and distribution devices from anywhere
channels
Control Quality
The future is a world where the The future is a world where all
media that people consume is the media produced can be
control by the individual. cinema quality – where the
Scheduling of media will be output from consumer devices
driven by the consumer approach that of the professional
Copyright © 2007 Accenture . All Rights Reserved. Slide 19The real difference between SD and
HD content
The real difference is more information
Copyright © 2007 Accenture . All Rights Reserved. Slide 20So just how much better is a High
Definition image than Standard
definition
1920 x 1080P - HDTV
1024 x 768 - XGA
1280 x 720P
768 x 576 - PAL HDTV
720 x 480 – NTSC/VGA
Total Pixel =345,600
2,073,600
921,600
786,432
442,368
It's important to note that a higher resolution format is not necessarily physically
larger but it will provide a higher PPI (pixel per inch)/PPCM (pixel per cm) density
Copyright © 2007 Accenture . All Rights Reserved. Slide 21Indicative application bandwidth
demands
Low End “Broadband”
Dial-up Service
Telepresence
3d Holographics
Virtual Reality
5 sec CD download
Multi-channel TV
Video streaming
Multi-channel TV
Video on demand
Video-streaming
Video-streaming(VHS)
(SD)
Multi-player games
Typical Broadband
Video Conferencing
MP3 Streaming
Online games
ADSL Max
Teleconferencing
Basic Surfing
IP Telephony
Email
0 .064 .128 .256 .512 1 2 10 20 100+
Bandwidth Mbps
•Source: 2010 National Broadband Targets Marketing Australia’s Competitiveness, 31 July 2006, Internet Industry Association
Copyright © 2007 Accenture . All Rights Reserved. Slide 22The network is the computer
Text Web Graphical Music File Movie (2 hrs)
Page Web Page
Standard High
Definition Definition
(720x486)† (1080/60i) ‡
File Size..
10KB 200KB 3MB 4GB 28GB
Network Speed
GSM 12.2Kbps 6.5 sec 131 sec 32 mins 30 days 212 days
POT 56Kbps 1.43 sec 28.6 sec 7.3 mins 158 hours 46 Days
3G 384Kbps 0.21 sec 4.2 sec 1 min 23 hours 162 hours
ADSL 8Mbps 0.01 sec 0.2 sec 3.1 sec 66 mins 7.5 Hours
802.11b 11Mbps 0.15 sec 2.2 sec 48 mins 5.6 Hours
802.11g 54Mbps 0.03 sec 0.46 sec 10 mins 69 mins
802.11n 540Mbps 0.05 sec 59 sec 7 mins
Gigabit 1000Mbps 0.02 32 sec 4 mins
Never under estimate the bandwidth of a person with an ipod on a train…….
Copyright © 2007 Accenture . All Rights Reserved. † Assumed compression of 50:1 ‡Assumed compression of 40:1 Slide 23The problem is how to deliver
the content to the end user
when the size of the content
is increasing faster than the
bandwidth on the network.
The answer may well be to use the
technologies developed to “share”
media files. Peer-2-Peer.
Copyright © 2007 Accenture . All Rights Reserved. Slide 24Today’s infrastructures
CONTENT NETWORKS USERS
TV Studios, Ads, Television Networks
Movies
Web Servers, Data Networks
AOL, Yahoo, Advertising (Internet)
Messaging,
Ring Tones Phone Networks
Independently designed, with specific content & devices;
closed ecosystems
Copyright © 2007 Accenture . All Rights Reserved. Slide 25It’s time for the next step
Communications
Broadcasters Networks
Media Production Broadband Operators
Personal Content Mobile Operators
Studios Internet Service Providers
Enterprise Content MVNOs
Advertisers
Content providers Device Explosion
The new opportunity is at the
convergence points
Copyright © 2007 Accenture . All Rights Reserved. Slide 26The need for edge devices
Output Device
Caching
Content Broadcast
Streaming
Creation
Retail
“On demand” services Wired
Distribution Broadcast
Controlled
Media
Movement
Retail Wired
Media Hub
Broadcast Wireless Wired
Retail
Copyright © 2007 Accenture . All Rights Reserved. Slide 273 Main issues with Media
revenue at present
Ownership of Content • Subscription based models
1. •
•
•
Media Storage
Insurance
Format transfer
Advertising Revenue
• Skip advertising through user control
2. • Broadcaster or producer focused
• Location specific advertising
BBC License Fee
• What is the role of the BBC ?
3. • Move to Micro News Production
• Content production or public service
Copyright © 2007 Accenture . All Rights Reserved. Slide 28The hardware cost of
an iPod is insignificant
compared to the cost
of the media that it
holds
An 80GB iPod will today cost you £259.
The music to fill the same iPod (20,000
songs) will cost, via the iTunes Store,
£15,800.
Copyright © 2007 Accenture . All Rights Reserved. Slide 29The Future Home Network
Kitche
n
Bedro
om Loung
e Study
Child
Room
Home
Office
Child
Room
2
Copyright © 2007 Accenture . All Rights Reserved. Slide 30An ad spend and media time
imbalance globally
100 %
Online Ad Spend
Online Ad Online Time
Growth Growing
80 % Opportunity
60 %
Offline Ad
Spend Discrepancy:
( Newspapers,
40 %
TV, Radio, Direct ~$70 Billion (North America)
Marketing, etc) Offline Media
~$150 - $200 Billion (Global) Time
20 %
0%
Advertising Consumer
Spend Media Time
Sources: Universal McCann, Google, Accenture Analysis
Copyright © 2007 Accenture . All Rights Reserved. Slide 31Summary
• The long tail of media content becoming
more pronounced
• Increased focus from Telco organisation
to the delivery of rich media
• Continued problems with “last mile”
delivery
• Content size increase providing ongoing
need for compression improvement and
distributed storage.
• Advertising revenue following viewers
from television towards Interactive
technologies
Copyright © 2007 Accenture . All Rights Reserved. Slide 32You can also read
