THE WEEK AHEAD - THE JACKSON GROUP
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The Week Ahead
March 15-19, 2021
Fess Up, Fed
Economics by Avery Shenfeld
It’s time for the Fed to fess up, and why When will the Fed believe that we’ve
not? In this case, it will be to admit that the also made “substantial progress” towards
Avery Shenfeld economic backdrop is much better than they “price stability”, i.e. achieving sustained
(416) 594-7356 previously thought. The US central bank’s PCE inflation in the 2% range, which is the
avery.shenfeld@cibc.com
upcoming announcement will likely include second criteria for bond tapering? It will
Benjamin Tal a small, technical bump up in the interest on dismiss a gasoline-powered spike in headline
(416) 956-3698
benjamin.tal@cibc.com
overnight reserves, but its highlight will be inflation in the next few months, and stress
a fresh economic projection, one that will that underlying core prices are tame. What it
Andrew Grantham be a considerable upgrade from what it last won’t emphasize yet is that other prices that
(416) 956-3219
andrew.grantham@cibc.com published. have been suffering from a case of Covid-19,
including rents, airfares, even clothes we’ll
Royce Mendes To be sure, the pandemic still rages on, and want to wear out in the world again, will
(416) 594-7354
royce.mendes@cibc.com we wouldn’t be calling the latest versions also see a turning point, and wages could
of the virus “variants of concern” if they follow that in 2022.
Katherine Judge
(416) 956-6527
weren’t, well, concerning. Our near term
katherine.judge@cibc.com growth forecast is a little lighter than some It’s the same issue with rate hikes. The Fed’s
in the consensus because they could delay a growth forecast will make it implausible that
full reopening. the “dot” forecast can hang on to the claim
that the economy will need zero interest
But the Fed’s projection goes out several rates until 2024. Indeed, on the growth and
years, not a few months. It can’t say, after employment data, the conditions look to
advocating for more fiscal stimulus, that the be ripe for at least a couple of hikes in the
$1.9 trillion package just enacted doesn’t second half of 2022. But since Fed speakers
radically reshape the timing for a full see low inflation as more sticky than we do,
recovery, as does the simple fact that growth they aren’t yet in our camp.
already in the books since the last forecast
has run ahead of expectations. The Fed doesn’t have to give an advance
warning about tapering this early. So
The Fed’s prior Chair, Janet Yellen, now sits expect next week’s statement to repeat
only a few blocks away at Treasury, and she the notion that they will let us know when
has projected that the stimulus bill will allow we’ve actually had the substantial progress
the economy to hit full employment in 2022. needed to start that process. On rate hikes,
We see little chance that Jay Powell’s team they’re forced to say something, by virtue
will want to contradict her. That implies of the “dot plot” projection. The FOMCs
that the Fed’s own outlook will show the dovish bias on inflation will likely have them
economy making “substantial progress” bringing the first hikes into 2023, unwilling
towards maximal employment, one of the at this point to fess up to the chance that
two criteria for slowing the pace of QE bond near-zero interest rates will be too much
buying, before the end of this year. stimulus even earlier than that. That smaller
http://economics.cibccm.com
confession shouldn’t be enough to hit bond
yields next week.
CIBC C a p i t a l M a r k e t s • PO Box 500, 161 Bay Street, B r o o k f i e l d Place, Toronto, C a n a d a M5J 2S8 • Bloomberg @ CIBCWeek Ahead Calendar And Forecast
` CANADA UNITED STATES
CIBC Consensus Prior CIBC Consensus Prior
Monday Government Bond Purchase Program (GBPP): 2-YR 8:30 AM
March 15 AUCTION: 2-YR CANADAS $6B NEW YORK FED (EMPIRE) (Mar) (M) 14.5 12.1
8:15 AM 4:00 PM
HOUSING STARTS SAAR (Feb) (M) 210K 282.4K NET CAPITAL INFLOWS (TICS) (Jan) (L) $121.0B
8:30 AM
MANUFACTURING SHIPMENTS M/M (Jan) (M) 0.7% 0.9%
9:00 AM
EXISTING HOME SALES M/M (Feb) (M) 2.0%
Tuesday Government Bond Purchase Program (GBPP): 5-YR CASH MGMT. 42-DAY $35B
March 16 AUCTION: 3-M BILLS $6.8B, 6-M BILLS $2.6B, 1-YR BILLS $2.6B 20-YR AUCTION: $24B
8:30 AM 8:30 AM
INT'L. SEC. TRANSACTIONS (Jan) (M) 5.08B RETAIL SALES M/M (Feb) (H) -1.8% -0.7% 5.3%
RETAIL SALES (X-AUTOS) M/M (Feb) (H) -1.4% 0.2% 5.9%
RETAIL SALES CONTROL GROUP M/M (Feb) (H) -1.6% -1.1% 6.0%
NEW BRUNSWICK BUDGET IMPORT PRICE INDEX M/M (Feb) (L) 1.1% 1.4%
EXPORT PRICE INDEX M/M (Feb) (L) 1.0% 2.5%
9:15 AM
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M (Feb) (H) -0.2% 0.4% 0.9%
CAPACITY UTILIZATION (Feb) (M) 75.3% 75.5% 75.6%
10:00 AM
BUSINESS INVENTORIES M/M (Jan) (L) 0.3% 0.6%
NAHB HOUSING INDEX (Mar) (L) 84.0 84.0
Wednesday Government Bond Purchase Program (GBPP): 10-YR 7:00 AM
March 17 MBA-APPLICATIONS (Mar 12) (L) -1.3%
8:30 AM
CPI M/M (Feb) (H) 0.7% 0.6% 8:30 AM
CPI Y/Y (Feb) (H) 1.3% 1.0% HOUSING STARTS SAAR (Feb) (M) 1535K 1565K 1580K
CPI Core- Common Y/Y% (Feb) (M) 1.3% 1.3% BUILDING PERMITS SAAR (Feb) (H) 1700K 1750K 1886K
CPI Core- Median Y/Y% (Feb) (M) 2.0%
CPI Core- Trim Y/Y% (Feb) (M) 2.0% 2:00 PM
FOMC RATE DECISION (UPPER BOUND) (Mar 17) (H) 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
FOMC RATE DECISION (LOWER BOUND) (Mar 17) (H) 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%
Speaker: 2:30 PM Jerome H Powell (Chairman) (Voter)
Thursday Government Bond Purchase Program (GBPP): 30-YR AUCTION: 10-YR TIPS $13B
March 18 AUCTION: 30-YR CANADAS $3B
8:30 AM
8:30 AM INITIAL CLAIMS (Mar 13) (M) 700K 712K
ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE CONTINUING CLAIMS (Mar 6) (L) 4144K
PHILADELPHIA FED (Mar) (M) 24.0 23.1
10:00 AM
LEADING INDICATORS M/M (Feb) (M) 0.3% 0.5%
Friday 8:30 AM
March 19 RETAIL TRADE TOTAL M/M (Jan) (H) -3.3% -3.4%
RETAIL TRADE EX-AUTO M/M (Jan) (H) -3.0% -4.1%
H, M, L = High, Medium or Low Significance SAAR = Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Consensus Source: BloombergCIBC Capital Markets The Week Ahead—March 15-19, 2021
In the US, retail sales might
Week
have Ahead’s
been feeling Market Call
under the
weather in February,
by AverysoShenfeld
if
there’s any disappointment in
that month’s data, the market
might just chalk that up to the
In the US, retail sales might have been feeling under the weather in February, so if there’s
any disappointment in severity of storms,
that month’s particu-
data, the market might just chalk that up to the severity
of storms, particularly in Texas. Housing startsstarts
larly in Texas, Housing could also have seen a bit of an impact,
particularly relative to acould
mild also haveThe
January. seen a bit
Fed willof
likely nudge up the interest on overnight
an impact, particularly relative
reserves by a token 5 bps, to keep some short term rates off of zero in the face of too much
liquidity at the front end, but that’s a technical adjustment, not a policy tightening. Their
substantially improved forecast shouldn’t surprise the bond market, particularly if they only
move a few rate hikes up into 2023, and put a lot of emphasis on the currently tame trend
in core PCE prices.
In Canada, the retail data for January will be hit hard by public health shutdowns, and we
already can see the makings of better news there in February employment gains in that
sector. Housing could be hit by a turn to more seasonal winter weather in February. On the
inflation front, keep an eye on the common component core measure, which will likely be
your best guide to underlying trends in upcoming months as we go through some volatility
in a few categories.
3CIBC Capital Markets The Week Ahead—March 15-19, 2021
Week Ahead’s Key Canadian Number:
Cdn Consumer Price Index (YoY %)
Consumer Price Index—February 3
BoC Target
(Wednesday, 8:30 a.m.)
2
Royce Mendes (416) 594-7354
1
All Items
CPI-Common
CIBC Mkt Prior 0
CPI m/m (NSA) 0.7% N/A 0.6%
-1
CPI yr/yr 1.3% N/A 1.0% Feb-18 Feb-19 Feb-20 Feb-21F
CPI-common 1.3% N/A 1.3% Source: Statistics Canada, CIBC
The increase in gasoline prices will be the big story when trim indicators, after originally publishing the January
data is released for February CPI. Prices for crude oil data with a new methodology that made them appear
have been rising this year, and some refinery capacity much weaker. We continue to favour the core-common
in Texas was offline during the month due to a winter component measure, which wasn’t affected by the
storm. Higher energy prices will also show up in Ontario changes, but will still be suggesting that underlying price
electricity prices as the government ended the 40 day pressures are subdued.
discount that began on January 1st. However, what
doesn’t show up in the upcoming report will also be Forecast Implications — The recent increase in gasoline
important. Price hikes for both travel tours and airfares prices will help the upcoming March and April inflation
to holiday destinations that typically begin in February readings surge past 2%, potentially even reaching 3%.
won’t be evident, as those services weren’t available to However, it will be best to simply look through these
consumers this year. That should leave the seasonally- numbers, as they will be mostly the result of base effects
adjusted month-over-month ex-food and energy reading rather than any recent underlying price pressures. Despite
looking unusually weak and see the annual rate for that the coming spike in headline inflation and the recent rise
indicator slow a tick. in commodity prices, the trends in prices are likely to
remain weak enough for the Bank of Canada to keep
Statistics Canada has reverted to its previous procedures rates on hold into late 2022.
for estimating the Bank of Canada’s core-median and
Other Canadian Releases:
Housing Starts — February
Retail Sales — January (Monday, 8:15 am)
(Friday, 8:30 am)
Favourable weather conditions helped housing starts
It wasn’t just the holiday season, as Canadians appear to reach their highest level on record in January, but a run
have been even more frugal in January. Statistics Canada’s of very strong readings for building permits suggests that
flash estimate indicated a 3.3% drop in sales and we it wasn’t only warm weather driving the acceleration.
have no reason to disagree. With many parts of the So, while conditions for construction were harsher
country under strict lockdowns, it seems the weakness in February, there’s scope for starts to have remained
in spending was broad based outside of grocery stores above the pre-pandemic trend, clocking in at 210K. Low
and pharmacies. Early indications suggest that auto interest rates and fewer opportunities to spend income in
sales continued to trend lower, and sales ex-autos likely other areas of the economy has seen Canadian housing
fared equally poorly. That said, household purchases markets flourish during the pandemic, specifically single-
likely migrated even further towards online sellers not family homes. However, as the virus fades and conditions
captured in the report, which actually means that the normalize, the demand for housing could cool off
survey somewhat overstates the weakness in goods somewhat. Indeed, some normalization already appears
purchases in January. The February jobs data suggest to be occurring with a pickup in activity occurring in the
that the flash estimate for that month could show a solid multi-unit segment of the market recently.
rebounce in retail sales as stores reopened.
4CIBC Capital Markets The Week Ahead—March 15-19, 2021
Week Ahead’s Key US Number:
22.0 US Retail Sales % 10
%
Retail Sales—February 18.0 6
(Tuesday, 8:30 a.m.) 14.0
2
10.0
6.0 -2
Katherine Judge (416) 956-6527
2.0 -6
-2.0 -10
-6.0
CIBC Mkt Prior -14
-10.0 m/m % chg. (L)
-14.0 -18
Retail Sales m/m % -1.8 -0.7 5.3 y/y % chg. (R)
-18.0 -22
Retail Sales – ex auto -1.4 0.2 5.9 Feb-20 Apr-20 Jun-20 Aug-20 Oct-20 Dec-20 Feb-21F
Retail Sales – control group -1.6 -1.1 6.0
Source: Census Bureau, CIBC
Retail sales started the new year with a bang, but look Forecast Implications—With the freezing weather now
to have frozen in February as temperatures plummeted in the rear view mirror, and the labor market set for an
and auto sales dropped off. That suggests a 1.8% drop acceleration as vaccinations continue, the soft February
in total retailing as poor weather conditions would have retail sales print will just be a blip in what’s poised to be
held back building material sales, restaurant receipts, and a scorching spring and summer for consumer spending
traffic at brick and mortar stores. Even when excluding as re-openings continue and incomes soar as a result of
autos, restaurants, gasoline, and building materials, the incoming fiscal stimulus.
control group of sales likely contracted sharply, by 1.6%
on the month. However, that would still leave that group Market Impact—We are more pessimistic than the
up by 10% in year-over-year terms. consensus which could see fixed income yields fall.
Core goods prices dropped in February, another sign
that nominal spending could have been lackluster. The
ex-auto figure will receive a lift from the rise in gasoline
prices, limiting that group’s drop to 1.4%.
Other U.S. Releases:
Industrial Production—February Housing Starts—February
(Tuesday, 9:15 am) (Wednesday, 8:30 am)
Winter storms in February that left much of the state Poor weather conditions likely held back the pace
of Texas without power for days could have held back of housing starts in February, to 1535K, despite the
aggregate utilities production. Both manufacturing and surge in permits in the prior month. The gap between
mining saw hours worked drop, suggesting that they those measures suggests the spring months will see
provided little support to production. Overall, look for a homebuilding accelerate, as we expect permit issuance
0.2% drop in industrial production and a retrenchment of 1700K in February. Still, mortgage rates have risen,
in capacity utilization to 75.3%. causing home purchase intentions to drop off from the
highs reached in January, something that will put a cap
on demand as the recovery progresses.
5CIBC Capital Markets The Week Ahead—March 15-19, 2021
CANADIAN RELEASE AND EVENT DATES
March/April 2021
MONDAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY FRIDAY
8 9 10 11 LABOUR 12
FORCE SURVEY
8:30 AM AVG
EMPLOY UNEMP HRLY
CANADA’S INTERNATIONAL (HSHOLD) RATE EARN
Bank of Canada
INVESTMENT POSITION M Y % Y
Interest Rate Announcement
8:30 AM DEC -0.3 -3.1 8.8 5.4
JAN -1.2 -4.4 9.4 5.9
FEB 1.4 -3.1 8.2 4.3
Bank of Canada CAPACITY UTILIZATION
Dep. Governor Schembri 8:30 AM LEVEL (%)
speaks by videoconference TOTAL MANUF.
@ 1:30 PM ET 20:Q2 71.4 63.6
20:Q3 77.4 75.3
20:Q4 79.2 76.2
WHOLESALE TRADE
8:30 AM
HOUSING 15 16 17 18 19
STARTS INT’L TRANSACTIONS
8:15 AM 000’s (AR) IN SECURITIES C$BN, NET CPI RETAIL TRADE
TOTAL SINGLES 8:30 AM 8:30 AM M Y ADP EMPLOYMENT SURVEY 8:30 AM (Current$)
DEC 229 53 BONDS MONEY STOCKS TOT 8:30 AM M Y
DEC -0.2 0.7
JAN 282 74 MARKET NOV 1.8 7.6
JAN 0.6 1.0
FEB NOV 6.2 1.1 4.5 11.8 DEC -3.4 3.3
FEB
DEC -8.7 6.9 6.9 5.1 JAN
SURVEY OF JAN
MANUFACTURING
8:30 AM SHIPMENTS
M Y NEW BRUNSWICK BUDGET
NOV -0.4 -4.7
DEC 0.9 -3.9
JAN
22 23 24 25 26
Bank of Canada
Dep. Governor Gravelle ONTARIO BUDGET QUEBEC BUDGET
speaks by videoconference
@ 1:15 PM ET
29 30 31 1 2
GDP BY INDUSTRY
8:30 AM (2002$) BUILDING
PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT, GDP IND.PROD. PERMITS ($) GOOD FRIDAY
EARNINGS & HOURS M M 8:30 AM M M (HOLIDAY)
8:30 AM NOV 0.8 1.8 (RES) (NON-RES) (Markets Closed)
DEC 0.1 0.2 DEC -1.4 -10.8
JAN JAN 10.6 2.6
FEB
INDUSTRIAL PRICES
8:30 AM M (NSA) Y
DEC 1.7 2.0
JAN 2.0 4.0
FEB
5 6 7 8 9
MERCHANDISE
TRADE LABOUR
8:30 AM $MN 12 MO. FORCE SURVEY
BALANCE 8:30 AM AVG
SASKATCHEWAN BUDGET DEC -1,983 -37,054 EMPLOY UNEMP HRLY
JAN 1405 -32,850 (HSHOLD) RATE EARN
FEB M Y % Y
JAN -1.2 -4.4 9.4 5.9
IVEY PURCHASING FEB 1.4 -3.1 8.2 4.3
MANAGERS’ INDEX MAR
10:00 AM
MANITOBA BUDGET
All data seasonally adjusted except where noted “NSA”. M: per cent change from previous month. Q: per cent change from previous quarter at annual rates. Y: per cent change
from year earlier. AR: Annual Rate. YTD: Year to date. Release dates are provided by sources outside CIBC World Markets Inc. Dates are subject to change. Sources for historical
data: Statistics Canada, CMHC, Human Resources Development Canada and the Bank of Canada.
6CIBC Capital Markets The Week Ahead—March 15-19, 2021
U.S. RELEASE AND EVENT DATES
March/April 2021
MONDAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY FRIDAY
8 9 10 11 12
CPI PPI
8:30 AM M(SA) Y (NSA) 8:30 AM M (SA) Y (SA)
WHOLESALE TRADE DEC 0.2 1.4 DEC 0.3 0.8
10:00 AM JAN 0.3 1.4 JAN 1.3 1.8
FEB 0.4 1.7 FEB 0.5 2.8
TREASURY BUDGET
2:00 PM MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (P)
10:00 AM
BOT (9:00) REDBOOK (8:55) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS (8:30)
15 RETAIL SALES
16 17 18 19
8:30 AM M Y HOUSING
DEC -1.0 2.5 STARTS PHILADELPHIA FED INDEX
JAN 5.3 7.4 8:30 AM Mn. M/M 8:30 PM
FEB DEC 1.680 8.2
JAN 1.580 -6.0
NET CAPITAL INFLOWS TICS CAPACITY UTIL/IND. PROD. FEB
LEADING INDICATOR
4:00 PM 9:15 AM LEV M Y
10:00 AM
DEC 74.9 1.3 -3.2
JAN 75.6 0.9 -1.8 FOMC Rate Decision
FEB
BUSINESS INVENTORIES Fed Chair Powell speaks
10:00 AM @ 2:30 PM ET
BOT (9:00) REDBOOK (8:55) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS (8:30)
22 23 24 25 26
ADV. TRADE
GDP
IN INTERNATIONAL GOODS
8:30 AM (AR) REAL IMPLICIT
DURABLE 8:30 AM
CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE GDP DEFLATOR
EXISTING HOME SALES GOODS ORDERS
8:30 AM 20:Q2 -31.4 -1.8 PERS. INC & OUT.
10:00 AM 8:30 AM M Y
20:Q3 33.4 3.5 8:30 AM SAVING
DEC 1.2 2.6
20:Q4(3rd) INCOME CONS RATE
JAN 3.4 6.3
NEW HOME SALES FEB M M AR
10:00 AM DEC 0.6 -0.4 13.4
CORPORATE PROFITS
JAN 10.0 2.4 20.5
8:30 AM
FEB
MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (F)
10:00 AM
BOT (9:00) REDBOOK (8:55) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS (8:30)
29 30 31 1 2
ISM MFG SURVEY EMPLOY.
S&P/CASE-SHILLER ADP SURVEY 10:00 AM COMP. PRICES
HOUSE PRICE INDEX SITUATION
8:15 AM INDEX INDEX 8:30 AM NON- CIV AVG
9:00 AM
JAN 58.7 82.1 FARM UNEMP HRLY
FEB 60.8 86.0 PAYROLL RATE EARN
MAR JAN 166 6.3 5.3
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE CHICAGO PMI FEB 379 6.2 5.1
10:00 AM 9:45 AM MAR
LIGHT VEHICLES
SALES MIL (AR) Y
JAN 16.620 -1.5 GOOD FRIDAY
FEB 15.671 -6.6 (HOLIDAY)
MAR (Markets Closed)
BOT (9:00) REDBOOK (8:55) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS (8:30)
5 6 7 8 9
GOODS &
FACTORY ORDERS PPI
SERV. BALANCE (BOP) $B
10:00 AM M(SA) Y(NSA) 8:30 AM M (SA) Y (SA)
8:30 AM GDS SERV TOT
DEC 1.6 -0.3 JAN 1.3 1.8
DEC -84.1 17.2 -67.0
JAN 2.6 2.8 FEB 0.5 2.8
JAN -85.5 17.2 -68.2
FEB MAR
FEB
FOMC Minutes WHOLESALE TRADE
ISM NON-MFG SURVEY 10:00 PM
10:00 AM CONSUMER CREDIT
3:00PM
BOT (9:00) REDBOOK (8:55) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS (8:30)
All data seasonally adjusted except where noted “NSA”. M: per cent change from previous month. Q: per cent change from previous quarter at annual rates. Y: per cent change
from year earlier. AR: Annual Rate. YTD: Year to date. Release dates are provided by sources outside CIBC World Markets inc. Dates are subject to change. Sources for historical
data: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Department of Labor and U.S. Federal Reserve Board.
7CIBC Capital Markets The Week Ahead—March 15-19, 2021
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