Trends to Watch in 2020 & Beyond - Acknowledgements Lead Authors: Erica Orange, Jared Weiner, Eshanthi Ranasinghe Contributors: Simone Hill, Brett ...
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Trends to Watch
in 2020 & Beyond
Acknowledgements
—
Lead Authors: Erica Orange,
Jared Weiner, Eshanthi Ranasinghe
Contributors: Simone Hill, Brett Horvath
Design & Illustration: Nicole Allred,
Lili des Bellons, Lisa Winter
Trends to Watch in 2020 & Beyond 1
This trend report captures mounting global shifts as we approach a new decade. Climate change and a “generational cauldron.” Belonging and erasure. Social unrest and geopolitical realignment. The future of warfare. As many have said, and many of us have felt, we are in dynamic and uncertain times. But our future isn’t written. As we’ve seen demonstrated by young leaders around the world, individuals seeking meaning, and people joining together to fight for recognition and representation, our greatest struggle can bear the sweetest fruit. “We did not come to fear the future. We came here to shape it.” — Barack Obama
New Climate
Rising sea levels, accumulating green-
house gases, intensifying tempera-
tures: The signals are clear and contin-
ue to worsen. According to National
Narrative Geographic, children born 2012 and
after haven’t lived a single day unaf-
fected by climate change; and it has
altered global weather for nearly the
entire life of anyone 18 years or young-
er. Though shocking, this isn’t neces-
sarily news. For several years, scien-
tists have been speaking concretely
about the global consequences of cli-
mate change, connecting it directly to
current events. What’s different now
is the rising public urgency alongside
it—new leaders across youth activists
and island nations are raising a global
rallying call to action, inspiring new
energy, commitment, and alliances.
But while momentum builds
among activist leaders, innovators,
and scientists, climate-based politics
remain far from any genuine water-
If there is one trend likely to shed moment. Polls show people are
demanding action, but internation-
define the next decade, it is al governments have deliberately
blocked and stymied progress. At
climate change. the COP25 meeting in Madrid, the
Trends to Watch in 2020 & Beyond 3
Australian government worked to
lower its commitment to the UN Paris Generations of people have long
agreement while bush fires wreaked
havoc across the country. At the
same meeting there was an effort to
struggled to fully understand one
block the words “climate urgency” in
text, from Brazil and Saudi Arabia.
another, but today environmental
Regardless of incremental progress,
climate change remains one of the
degradation is a highly salient
most intractable political issues we, as
a global society, have ever faced.
and growing intergenerational
New leaders have risen to this
challenge. So while the outlook re- flash point.
mains dire, we take our cue from them,
and hold out hope that where there
is a will (and there is that!), there is a
way, and the new decade will continue
bring with it renewed climate narrative,
and action.
Climate-Based
Youth Movements &
The “Generational Cauldron”
Young people are channeling anxiet-
ies about climate change into activ-
ism, and the results are astounding.
In November 2018, more than 1,000
students around Australia, inspired organizations, and doubling down Political Timebombs:
by Swedish student Greta Thunberg, on existing ones—from the Sunrise This global phenomenon of unful-
walked out of school to protest the Movement in the US, to Green New filled youthful aspirations is creating
government’s inaction on climate Deal for Europe, to African Youth political timebombs—one of which is
change. On March 2019, it was estimat- Climate Hub, not to mention global climate policy. For left-leaning young
ed that 1.6 million students from 125 coalitions like Fridays for Future and people in the US, the Green New Deal
countries participated in a strike, leav- Global Climate Strike. Tactics have had offers a glimmer of hope by creating a
ing classes and taking to the streets. to adapt to country context—youth framework for a shift to a new, green
Student-led efforts in 2019 culminated voices are not always heard so readily economy built on economic reform,
in September, when young people everywhere, and yet global coordina- sustainability, and social justice. One
from 150 countries around the world— tion persists in elaborate, decentral- of its greatest merits is connecting
Afghanistan, Bangladesh, El Salvador, ized, and lean organization. the casualties of modern day neolib-
Pakistan, Nigeria, South Africa, and One of the palpable pressure eral economics—environment, eco-
more—participated in the largest global points surrounding climate-based nomic equality, and social justice—in
demonstration ever in the fight against youth activism relates to generational one plan (not the first attempt to do
climate change: 6 million people across tension. Generations of people have this), rather than pitting them against
4,500 locations, in the youth-organized long struggled to fully understand each other. But ultimately, the plan
Climate Strike rally, “Global Week for one another, but today environmental has struggled to gain federal mo-
Future.” This preceded the first of its degradation is a highly salient and mentum among more seasoned reps
kind UN Youth Climate Summit, on growing intergenerational flash point. and commentators, who consider its
Sept 21, 2019, prior to the UN Climate Many young people feel disillusioned advocates unrealistic and inexperi-
Action Summit, on Sept 23. One hun- and angry at preceding generations, enced. Meanwhile, pressures continue
dred youth activists were selected from which they blame for doing little to to mount in a generational cauldron
a group of more than 7,000 applicants, nothing to address what they consider between youth activists demanding
ages 18-29, working to address the an inherited long-term crisis and dead- change and older leaders refusing to
climate crisis and advance solutions ly legacy—e.g., witness the rise of “OK, give it.
around the world, to travel (as carbon Boomer,” a phrase US Gen Z has used
neutral as possible) to the event. to call out older adults on their collec-
Activism has spread at a dizzy- tive lack of action on climate change
ing pace, creating new networks and and other progressive issues.
Trends to Watch in 2020 & Beyond 4
Both countries are among the top 20
Climate Change and
polluters in the world. To compensate
Global Politics: New Leaders
for the gap, 75 percent of countries
and Alliances
increased their pledges in domes-
New global political leaders are taking
tic currency, and nearly 50 percent
the stage alongside youth, filling in a
at least doubled their pledges. The
gaping hole left by the world’s leading
largest donors were the UK ($1.82bn),
economies and largest polluters. The
France ($1.76bn), Germany ($1.75bn),
2019 climate summit that came ahead
and Japan ($1.5bn), while Slovenia
of the UN general assembly was the
donated for the first time.” The funds,
most significant climate meeting since
from public and private sectors, will
the Paris summit was signed in 2015.
be invested in low-income countries to
More than 60 heads of state convened
help reduce their emissions and adapt
and announced a series of new climate
to the negative impacts of climate
targets, with about 66 countries
change. This was a significant move as
pledging to reach “net zero” carbon
climate finance remains contentious.
emissions by 2050. However, many
“It has long been argued that richer
countries did not present at the sum-
nations (whose industrial revolutions
mit, including the US, Japan, Australia,
were founded on fossil fuels) do
Saudi Arabia, and Brazil. China, the
not give enough to address climate
world’s largest emitter, gave only a
change, for which they bear ‘responsi-
muted announcement.
bility.’ A report titled ‘Extreme Carbon
New Zealand Prime Minister
Inequality’ by Oxfam estimated that
Jacinda Ardern, German Chancellor
the richest 10 percent produced half of
Angela Merkel, and Marshall Islands
the world’s carbon emissions.”
Prime Minister Hilda Heine, on the
Funders are also joining the fray.
other hand, opened the national
According to Green Biz, twenty-nine
commitment portion of the summit
mostly US-based philanthropic institu-
with their countries’ plans to in-
tions plan to spend an unprecedented
crease climate ambition. International
total of $4 billion over the next five
Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)
years addressing climate change. The
Director-General Francesco La Camera
11th Hour Project’s climate and energy
voiced support for small island de-
program, for instance, seeks to reduce
veloping states (SIDS) in the battle
reliance on fossil fuels and accelerate
against climate change. The SIDS
the use of renewable energy pri-
Lighthouses initiative received finan-
marily in the US. Though admirable,
cial support from Denmark, Germany,
philanthropy’s commitment to global
Norway, and the UAE. And as UN
warming is reported to be less than
climate talks in Madrid reached their
3 percent of its annual giving. Critics
closing this past December, a group
from within philanthropy have ad-
of 31 countries have agreed on the
monished this amount as much too
San Jose Principles for High Ambition
low, especially considering the threat
and Integrity in International Carbon
climate change poses to ongoing
Markets, which “constitute the basis
impact work. And there are those who
upon which a fair and robust carbon
use philanthropic dollars to impede
market should be built.” Countries
progress. Much of the funding for US
include: Costa Rica, Belize, Colombia,
climate change-denial groups can be
Paraguay, Marshall Islands, Cook
traced back to 140 different founda-
Islands, Grenada, Estonia, Trinidad and
tions. “Between 2003 to 2010, these
Tobago, Tuvalu, and more.
foundations were found to have sent
Moreover, US$9.8 billion has been
over $558 million worth of grants
pledged by 27 countries to replenish
and donations each year to 91 groups
the UN’s Green Climate Fund (GCF)
skeptical of climate change. … Around
for the next four years, surpassing
79 percent of these foundations are
what was originally pledged. This is
listed as charity organizations—mean-
“in spite of Australia’s turndown and
ing they can get tax relief—that pro-
President Donald Trump’s decision to
mote conservative values or neoliberal
block $2 billion of the $3 billion prom-
free-market ideology.”
ised by the Obama administration.
Trends to Watch in 2020 & Beyond 5
be built and the power shared locally. Circular Economy and
Hope in Climate Adaptation
PowerPaired is a “new, free online plat- Recirculative Design:
For global communities suffering the
form which provides a matchmaking A circular economy is an industrial sys-
impacts of climate change, climate
service to bring together community tem that is restorative or regenerative.
adaptation has become increasingly
energy groups and the owners of sites Mimicking natural systems, it designs
important. Adaptation involves reduc-
with potential for renewable energy out waste and pollution, keeps prod-
ing the risks faced by both humans
generation.” ucts and materials in use, and regen-
and natural systems; it helps ensure
erates natural systems through “the
that we can cope with the effects of
Growth of Bioplastics: superior design of materials, products,
climate change. For example, building
Thailand is “attracting billions in invest- systems, and business models,” that
sea walls to protect coastal communi-
ments in bioplastics from global and can otherwise reinforce an extractive
ties from rising sea levels and develop-
local players seizing the opportunities and destructive industrial process. The
ing drought- and heat-resistant crops.
the country offers as a production concept has been around since 1966
Climate adaptation policies are in place
hub for bio-based industries due to (or the beginning of time, to indige-
in over 170 countries, but the future
its abundant raw materials, existing nous and other groups who have long
demands more innovative solutions.
value chain, and supportive govern- aspired to live in balance with nature),
ment policies.” Japan is now funding but has picked up steam, most nota-
Rise of Green Infrastructure: bly as a key topic at Davos 2020. How
the bioplastics industry in South Africa,
It is time that we “think of our natural sincere are Davos attendees about the
and sustainable and plant-based
systems as this incredibly valuable World Economic Forum’s powerful call?
alternatives, as excessive plastic waste
technology,” conservation biologist We won’t wait to find out, but instead
comes under scrutiny in the country.
Letitia Grenier is quoted saying to take inspiration from efforts like this
And Chilean start-up Valnux is “trans-
nonprofit news source Marketplace. one to encourage regenerative agricul-
forming discarded walnut shells into
She and other scientists promote ture in the US.
a biodegradable thermoplastic with
using plants and soil as valuable infra-
naturally occurring antibacterial prop-
structure to prevent flooding and pu-
erties.” Recirculative Design:
rify water, “in an era of rising seas and
There are also a host of innova- Recirculative Design takes circular
severe storms” that “call into question
tions on the horizon, including: economy a step further, to incorpo-
the reliability of traditional levees, a
rate regenerative and nature-inspired
form of hard infrastructure.”
Energy: design with environmental circularity,
Pavegen flooring tiles can convert zero waste and toxicity, and rapid tech-
Materials Technology: nological and scientific innovation
kinetic energy from people’s footsteps
This new gel “works like a vaccine for (e.g., bioengineering, synthetic biology,
into electricity. Not only will pedestri-
wildfires.” When the flame-retardant 3D printing).
ans produce their own clean electricity
material is sprayed on vegetation, it Self-repairing materials based on
as they walk, they can also “generate
will protect the plants from igniting proteins from a squid’s teeth can make
data by relaying their footsteps, via the
for months. rips in clothes fix themselves. A mag-
wireless API embedded in the tiles, to
Pavegen’s website as digital currency, netized ink can make wearables heal
Converting Waste into Energy: which can be exchanged for discounts.” themselves when broken by sticking
What if human waste was considered a Researchers are trying to turn back together and allowing the electri-
resource? India’s “$62 billion sanitation fatigues into power sources. They have cal currents to keep flowing.
economy” is fueling a growing number created a “flexible electronic ribbon Adidas created a line of biode-
of companies and “sanipreneurs” to that contains solar cells and a super- gradable shoes made from synthetic
cash in by finding ways to turn human capacitor that stores energy harvested spider silk.
waste into valuable resources, includ- from the sun. When interwoven with The world’s first 3D-printed
ing renewable energy. cotton threads in a military uniform, neighborhood was built in Mexico for
the ribbon would connect to adapters families living on $3 per day.
P2P Energy Sharing: that soldiers could use to recharge An electricity-free lamp is pow-
Peer-to-peer electricity trading on a depleted gear.” ered by bioluminescent octopus
nanogrid is already making inroads in Carbon Clean Solutions is work- bacteria.
many industrialized countries, such ing to turn CO2 into baking pow- Thermoelectric paint captures the
as New Zealand, Germany, and the der. Canadian company Carbon waste heat from hot painted surfaces
US. In the Netherlands, Power Peers Engineering can remove CO2 from the and converts it into electrical energy.
connects home energy producers with atmosphere and turn it into fuel. And
consumers wanting clean energy. Solar a new technology uses synthetic dia-
power can be bought from relatives’ monds formed from nuclear waste to
and friends’ panels even at a long dis- “create a low-current battery durable
tance, and community solar panels can enough to outlast human civilization.”
Trends to Watch in 2020 & Beyond 6Climate Change & the Rise in Municipalities, urban develop-
Challenges
Global Conflict: ers, designers and manufacturers
There are many optimistic signals for
According to a 2016 research paper, will increasingly have to think both
positive momentum behind climate
climate change will increase the risk innovatively and imaginatively around
change, but while we hope and expect
of armed conflict across Africa by 50 climate-based solutions, particularly
this to grow, climate change itself will
percent by 2030. Eastern Africa is as more people crowd into already
also get worse, bringing with it a host
particularly vulnerable. Even countries crowded urban areas. The wasted
of new problems.
with robust economies and democra- goods and byproducts of today must
cies are susceptible. In Kenya, for ex- be the raw materials of tomorrow. But
Could Climate Change be Fueling the ample, severe drought has led to rapid we need urgency and coordination
Rise of Neonationalism? inflation of food prices, doubling the behind innovation to ensure it grows,
New research suggests that climate number of food-insecure people since sustains, and has impact. And while
change and nationalism may be close- 2014. That has contributed to violent youth leaders show us a path, and a
ly related. Today, the liberal, globalist conflicts, threatening the country’s will, to change, we cannot rely solely
system of alliances, institutions, and political stability. A study published on them. As Greta Thunberg admon-
norms is struggling within from grow- in 2015 drew a direct link between ished at her UN talk September 2019,
ing populism, nationalism, and authori- the 2007–2010 drought in the great- “My message is that we’ll be watching
tarianism. Climate anomalies (e.g., hur- er Fertile Crescent and Syria’s 2011 you. This is all wrong. I shouldn’t be
ricanes, droughts, forest fires) have a civil war, which has forced millions of up here. I should be back in school on
“tightening” effect on cultures—and as people to seek refuge in Europe. Their the other side of the ocean. Yet you
these events happen more frequent- arrival has helped inflame antidem- all come to us young people for hope.
ly, it might be driving more people ocratic movements throughout the Shame on you!”
toward politicians with “inflammatory continent. The question remains for the “rest
rhetoric.” This may create a vicious Other issues will arise and inter- of us”, how do we become allies in the
cycle, in which the threat of climate sect as well: As fans, cool air, even fight to save our planet? How do we
disaster and far-right neonationalism AC units become more of a necessi- bridge climate, justice, equity, econo-
feed off of one another. ty—and more expensive to run—how my, and innovation, and across gen-
Climate change refugees and will poorer individuals cope? And how erations? How do we change our own
asylum seekers are on the rise, likely will the swings in load demand affect behaviors, hold each other to account;
fueling neonationalism further. The brownouts and blackouts? And as the and how do we make room, among
World Bank estimated three regions heat increases the incidence of trop- old power, for new?
(Latin America, sub-Saharan Africa, ical diseases in northern climates, or
and Southeast Asia) will generate releases ancient viruses from melting
143 million more climate migrants glaciers, how will we cope—and how
in 2050. Approximately 800,000 of will our public health systems, spaces,
Myanmar’s Rohingya minority have and transportation all need to adapt?
fled ethnic cleansing by moving to
Bangladesh, now occupying refugee
camps that are prone to flash floods Demand for Innovative
during monsoons. Land bordering the Climate Solutions
camps has been deprived of its forest The next decade will likely bring—and
cover, leaving tents and huts vulnera- demand—tremendous leadership and
ble to being washed away. Numbers innovation in climate-related solutions.
of migrants are growing faster than Imaginative cities of the future could
the world population, new UN figures become increasingly smart, connect-
show. International migrants currently ed, sensor-laden, and responsive in
number 3.5 percent of people on Earth real-time to residents’ needs. They
(272 million), also increasing rapid- could also integrate innovations like
ly. About a quarter are refugees and P2P energy sharing on a big data-driv-
asylum seekers, pointing to a disturb- en mass scale. Developing countries
ing instability in geopolitical dynamics. could leapfrog outdated Northern in-
The number of global refugees grew frastructure, becoming earlier-adopt-
by 13 million people between 2010 and ers of newer climate-based technolo-
2017. There is also a new generation gies, at national or state levels but also
of authoritarian leaders using climate at the individual and community levels,
change to seize power as young consumers are inspired by
more novel, grid-less technologies.
Trends to Watch in 2020 & Beyond 7Erasure
Erasure refers to the “practice of
collective indifference that renders
certain people and groups invisible.”
It is used to describe how “inconve-
nient people”—ethnic, religious, and
racial minorities, women, the LGBTQIA
community, lower classes, servants,
and slaves—are dismissed in recorded
history; and how their contributions,
struggles, and achievements are
ignored, removed, or undone. Groups
have long been written out of history.
The Roman decree damnatio memori-
ae, ‘‘condemnation of memory,’’ pun-
ished individuals by destroying every
trace of them from the city. It was con-
sidered a fate worse than execution. If
The Roman decree damnatio history is written by the victors, then
it is the group that sits most in power
memoriae, ‘‘condemnation of whose perspective prevails, especially
in formal institutions or structures of
memory,’’ punished individuals by power. In many ways, technology, with
its distributed networks and informa-
tion, has allowed for more perspec-
destroying every trace of them from tives to emerge and flourish, alongside
a general move toward more inclusion
the city. It was considered a fate in storytelling. But in recent years, we
see indications of this trend toward
worse than execution. erasure reemerging, and coming to
Trends to Watch in 2020 & Beyond 8encompass something far greater and
more ethically nuanced than it has be- Technology is amplifying a bifurcation
fore, at the intersection of technology,
culture, and public policy. where, on the one hand, more stories
Technological Erasure are emerging and being told from
Technology is amplifying a bifurcation
where, on the one hand, more stories the perspective of people who would
otherwise have been erased; but on the
are emerging and being told from the
perspective of people who would oth-
erwise have been erased; but on the
other hand, it is now easier to dismiss
people we disagree with and views
other hand, it is now easier to dismiss
that make us uncomfortable. people we disagree with and views that
Rise of Cancel Culture:
One way we see erasure manifesting is
make us uncomfortable.
through the rise of cancel culture—“a
movement in which the goal is to
seemingly reject, through avoidance
and erasure, things that many have
Erasure from Social Media: internet found that they “overwhelm-
deemed unacceptable or problemat-
This type of erasure takes many forms. ingly wanted a ‘grand erasure’ of their
ic.” Although done in earnest, to show
It is common practice for people to online footprint to stop childhood
protest or disagreement, even solidar-
erase posts, even remove contacts, mistakes from affecting their future.”
ity for a group that one feels is being
when they see content or opinions
treated unfairly, the result is often lost
they do not believe in or subscribe Media-Sponsored Erasure
dialogue and connection to those who
to. Far-right activists are increasing-
disagree, leaving no room for growth The 2019 Ethiopian Airlines crash
ly getting kicked off platforms like
and evolution. It can even have an anti- counted among its fatalities passen-
Twitter, erasing their presence, history,
thetical impact on the movements that gers from 35 countries. But in the af-
and connection to the network, which
are trying to bring the issues to light, termath of the tragedy, many Western
emboldens them as martyrs among
and break down important allegiance media outlets “stripped their reporting
their supporters. Memes shared on so-
as, in great irony, “You can really only of emphasis on Africa almost entirely,
cial media also reflect cultural erasure
be cancelled by your own side.” Former framing the tragedy chiefly in terms of
(and cultural appropriation), especial-
US President Barack Obama recently its impact on non-African passengers
ly when shared across social media
urged young people to leave cancel and organizations.” In her 2016 book
channels. The internet is now more
culture behind. A mob quickly rose to “In the Wake: On Blackness and Being,”
aware of the damage done by majority
the defense of cancel culture, sprinkled Tufts University professor Christina
cultures borrowing elements of mi-
with a bit of “OK, Boomer” judgment. Sharpe argues that “black people in
nority cultures and brands exploiting
Cancel culture now turns thought- the US and around the world exist
marginalized consumers.
less comments into firing offenses in a state of nonbeing and constant
where flawed humans face swift and erasure.” The long-time erasure of
immediate erasure at the impulse Personal Privacy and Erasure as black women led to the #SayHerName
of modern morals. The cancellation a Right: movement, which drew attention to
of flawed women from the internet, Originally, data erasure referred to black women believed to be victims
in a “trial by Instagram,” is anoth- how “personal data must be governed, of police brutality. Missing black and
er troubling manifestation. As Elle collected, processed, and erased.” For brown children receive much less
Contributing Editor Pandora Sykes the first time, the right to be forgot- media coverage in the US than their
writes, “When a male celebrity screws ten is found in the EU’s General Data white counterparts, while black men
up, he is duly lambasted, before rising, Protection Regulation (GDPR), in ad- are overrepresented as perpetrators of
a few weeks later, from the keyboard’s dition to the right to erasure. And data crime in US media.
ashes. But when a woman screws up, subjects are entitled to revoke con- A major study on diversity has
her error is used as a calling card for sent (and access) at any time. Social found that Hollywood is still “under-
her total erasure. Her mistake is no media accounts of children should be representing women, disabled people,
peccadillo; it is proof of her worthless- automatically wiped when they reach lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender
ness.” And just how far will the judg- 18, according to a new study. A report people and those from ethnic minority
ment of other people’s morality go? by the London School of Economics backgrounds, both on screen and be-
How do you un-cancel the cancelled? (LSE) into kids’ attitudes toward the
Trends to Watch in 2020 & Beyond 9hind the camera.” These findings show who together still make up most of
that the erasure of different groups is China’s westernmost regions, bear the
still tolerable to some. Hollywood is burden of these systematic efforts
also under fire for the whitewashing to erase ethnic identity. And in Hong
and erasure of East Asian characters. Kong, ongoing protests against a con-
However, the media can also have troversial extradition bill is leading to
the opposite effect. For instance, the the steady erasure of the Hong Kong
internet has made trans people more identity.
visible. Few marginalized groups have
experienced such a profound change US:
of fortune during the last decade. But The United States once stood up
some argue that it has also made against the erasure of intellectual free-
them more vulnerable in the so-called dom. But the lukewarm response of
“culture wars.” the Trump administration to the mur-
der of Saudi critic Jamal Khashoggi is
Government-Sponsored Erasure an example of why the global defense
of freedom of the press and speech
New forms of erasure are emerging
is no longer an American priority. As
at the intersections of technology,
Hannah Arendt argues in “The Origins
surveillance, government-centralized
of Totalitarianism,” the erasure of
control, and policy.
truth, facts, and standards of reference
furthers the collapse of democratic
Africa:
institutions.
Kenyans are being asked to choose
Several issues surrounding erasure
between legal erasure and “being
loom ahead of the 2020 US Census. In
commodified as data by their own
what some have referred to as “pa-
government.” The Kenyan government
per genocide,” the erasure of Native
recently mandated DNA-linked nation-
people from the US census “amounts
al IDs void of data protection. “This
to a systematic destruction of Native
mass registration exercise would see
identity by reclassifying people into
the issuance of new digital ID cards
non-Native racial groups on govern-
for all Kenyan residents. Many Kenyans
ment records.” An LGBT category
refused to register, either because
will also not be featured on the 2020
of concerns over privacy and data
Census. This perceived erasure mat-
security, or simply as a protest to the
ters for both practical and symbolic
government’s threats, coercion, and
reasons, as it shows that the fight for
bullying tactics.”
LGBT equality is historic and continu-
ing. Immigrant communities also fear
Asia: erasure with the proposed addition of
China has wiped memories of a citizenship question on the Census.
Tiananmen Square off the internet. Erasure is also making its way into
The Chinese military killed as many as legal statutes to counteract recogni-
10,000 people during Beijing’s violent tions of identity to groups whose pop-
suppression of pro-democracy pro- ulations were decimated by repeated
testers 30 years ago. But today, those attempts to deny rights and identity.
victims and the gruesome events in For example, the US Indian Child
Tiananmen Square have been virtually Welfare Act, enacted in 1978, made it
wiped from China’s collective memory. very difficult for non-Native parents to
Beijing has “achieved this mass era- adopt Native children, a counter-mea-
sure through an unprecedented crack- sure to “correct” decades of forced
down on all forms of public speech removal and conversion of Native chil-
in the streets and online, relying on dren that made obsolete their Native
advanced technology to automate American heritage and identity. This
much of their efforts.” Add to this the law is being challenged, leading some
fact that the Communist Party wants to fear cultural erasure and endanger-
to construct a unified nation by eras- ment of affirmative action laws and
ing differences in culture, religion, and tribal rights.
ethnic identity. Uyghurs and Tibetans,
Trends to Watch in 2020 & Beyond 10Erasure of Historical Memory
For all the progress being made,
erasure is leading to a war against
memory through the rewriting of past
narratives and the espousal of revi-
sionist history (e.g., Holocaust deni-
al, the separation of Muslim history
from Indian history, censoring the US
confederate past). Alabama, along
with many other former Confederate
States, is struggling with how to
teach children about its slave history.
Holocaust history is being rewritten in
parts of Eastern Europe. Anyone sug-
gesting that Poland was complicit in
the Holocaust could face fines or even
imprisonment of up to three years
under a controversial new law. In 2017,
Marine Le Pen tried rewriting France’s
history by questioning the country’s
role in the Holocaust.
The concept of erasure is even
going the way of “fake news,” being
twisted to apply to contexts that
are, if anything, attempting to the do
opposite. For example, US conserva-
tive commentators were calling the
removal of Confederate statues an
act of erasing the past, rather than an
attempt to de-valorize men who com-
mitted atrocious acts against enslaved
people, despite the fact that no history
was being rewritten or denied.
Where does the cleansing of
memory stop? In a world where the
lines between fact and fiction become
increasingly blurred, what impact will
this have on historical erasure? How
will this affect what children learn, or
are taught, in school? What laws could
be undone? Will history be viewed as
Several issues surrounding erasure
something malleable rather than factu-
al? Context and interpretation will take loom ahead of the 2020 US Census.
on greater urgency.
In what some have referred to as
“paper genocide,” the erasure of Native
people from the US census “amounts
to a systematic destruction of Native
identity by reclassifying people
into non-Native racial groups on
government records.”
Trends to Watch in 2020 & Beyond 11The Age of Unrest
Around the world, we see two major,
seemingly opposite shifts happening
simultaneously. On the one hand, es-
tablished democracies are experienc-
& Dismantling the ing the rise of prolific nationalist, pop-
ulist, or authoritarian movements. This
is well-chronicled. Tribalism remains a
Status Quo
powerful force everywhere; in recent
years it has begun to tear at the fabric
of liberal democracies in the devel-
oped world, and even at the postwar
liberal international order. We see fea-
tures of this manifesting in places as
dispersed as the US, UK, much of con-
tinental Europe, Brazil, Australia, Sri
Lanka, the Philippines, and many more
countries. The Economist Intelligence
Unit’s 2019 Global Democracy Index
fell to the worst average global score
since its inception in 2006, in a “de-
mocracy recession” that shows scores
of nearly every region of the world
either decline or stagnate.
On the other hand, traditionally
less democratic countries are expe-
riencing social unrest and political
counter-movements. In Hong Kong,
protests are being driven by increas-
ingly disillusioned youth populations
Trends to Watch in 2020 & Beyond 12anxious over the looming impacts of
the Chinese government’s overreach In a world more interconnected and
into their autonomy and civil liberties.
Violent protests in Lebanon are aimed
at reforming a corrupt and sectari-
globalized than ever before, and also
an system of government. Tunisia’s
authoritarian government, which has
more unequal and volatile, citizens are
been dying a steady death thanks to
pragmatic consensus building across
clinging dearly to those identities they
diverse and opposing political groups,
has seen 10,000 protests every year
feel most inherently define them, and
since 2016. In Chile, ranked as a
“flawed democracy” by the EIU before make them feel seen. This fuels the rise
2019, violent protest triggered by a
30 peso ($0.04) metro fare hike of all in tribalism, and in turn social unrest,
things, has driven a widespread push
for political reform.1 In 2019, mass
protests erupted across Sudan, Algeria,
we see manifesting globally.
Iraq, Ecuador, Haiti, Guinea, Bolivia,
Iran, Brazil, Columbia, Venezuela,
India, Nigeria, South Africa, Egypt,
and more.
But what does this mean? Protests
in authoritarian or hybrid (states with
both autocratic and democratic char-
acteristics) regimes are nothing new—
is this part of the natural ebb and lion. Germany and Belgium gave the
Tensions within
flow of political movements as we’ve already powerful Tutsi minority polit-
Multiethnic States
always seen, important but otherwise ical authority over the majority Hutus
In a world more interconnected and
isolated and unrelated? Or are we wit- in Rwanda. The British did something
globalized than ever before, and also
nessing a global revolution? Will the similar with the Tamil minority in Sri
more unequal and volatile (see later
new democratic leaders of the next Lanka. And though the resulting civil
sections), citizens are clinging dear-
decade come from more autocratic war outbreaks are years old (a de-
ly to those identities they feel most
countries? Will we see a switch in the cade, in Sri Lanka’s case), the feeling
inherently define them, and make
liberal order, countries like Chile lead- of normative threat to one’s identity
them feel seen. This fuels the rise in
ing the way as paragons of democracy, and culture can remain, fueling lat-
tribalism,2 and in turn social unrest, we
while countries like the US fall behind er tribalism and infighting with even
see manifesting globally. In many mul-
to hybrid autocracy? And are these other groups. It is tinder waiting for a
tiethnic autocratic and hybrid states,
opposing trends, rising autocracy in spark. Ethnically diverse but still some-
powerful figures of one group rise to
democracies and rising democracy what stable countries most at risk of
power, excluding other groups in turn.
in autocracies, or actually one in the future violence are said to be Ethiopia,
The examples are too exhausting to
same—rising social unrest at a global Iran, Pakistan, and the Republic of the
count, and not limited to “less dem-
scale, regardless of government, Congo, all developing countries with
ocratic” countries. In Syria, President
driven by popular discontent and histories of conflict, where minorities
Assad, a member of the Alawite mi-
disillusionment with corruption and face both discrimination and exclusion
nority, exerts authority over a country
inequity in political institutions and from power.
that is 74 percent Sunni. Sunnis in Iraq
economic systems, and with social And, across the Middle East, Kurds
are still fighting for representation.
media to enable, power, coordinate, are pushing for long-denied rights, and
The risk of rebellion increases dramat-
and amplify the protest? We cannot collaborating across national bound-
ically when joined with economic in-
be sure, of course. But when aries. This could profoundly reshape
equality along ethnic lines, sometimes
studying the drivers, interesting the entire region. Kurds in the four
remnants of entrenched “divide and
patterns emerge among less demo- traditionally distinct parts of Kurdistan—
conquer” tactics used by colonizers
cratic countries. Turkey, Syria, Iran, and Iraq—are looking
decades earlier, to create infighting
and deter coalition building and rebel- to become one single Kurdish nation.
Taken together, all of this highlights a
drive toward greater representation
1 This political participation drove Chile’s EIU ranking 2 For a deeper read on Neotribalism, check out
to a “full democracy”, ranking it four places higher than our Trends to Watch in 2018, where we cover the that cuts across many less developed
the US, which has been ranked as a flawed democracy “Rise of Neotribalism” (pg 10) as one of 10 trends to
since 2016. track that year. regions of the world.
Trends to Watch in 2020 & Beyond 13unequal, with women and those who
Rising Inequality
live in rural areas lagging in internet
The prosperity, or vulnerability, of glob-
use, limiting access to economic op-
al populations is a primary catalyst of
portunities and government services
social unrest. But inequality is a more
(though local markets are already driv-
complex concept than it once was. It
ing bottom-up solutions to this).
can fall along many different continua:
That said, unequal internet access
economic, demographic, reproductive,
doesn’t necessarily correlate to social
climate and water, information, algo-
unrest—in fact, some would argue the
rithmic, or digital/media literacy. And
opposite. This mentality has led many
while economic insecurity as a contrib-
countries to instate forced internet
utor to political unrest is well-captured,
cuts during periods of social unrest,
especially when accompanied by struc-
lasting a few days to “digital sieg-
tural vulnerability, we share a couple of
es” that go on for months, as we’ve
less-talked about aspects of inequality
seen in Syria, India, Sri Lanka, and
and their connection to social unrest in
Cameroon (there were an estimated
less democratic countries.
188 shutdowns in 2018 alone, and they
are getting longer each year). But
Climate & Water Inequality: while it may be true social media apps
Climate-related conflicts and displace- have fueled violent unrest via misin-
ments have already impacted politics formation—and also aided peaceful
in many nations. A report by the UN protest—it has not been proven that
Human Rights Council outlines an the removal of these tools results in a
impending “climate apartheid,” char- reduction in violence. In fact, several
acterized by an even greater rift be- researchers have found the opposite—
tween global haves and have-nots. The that “shutting down social media does
report predicts 120 million people will not reduce violence, but rather fuels it.”
be thrust into poverty by 2030 by cli- One factor resonates clearly
mate change. It further highlights how across less democratic countries ex-
the poorest 3.5 billion people in the periencing social unrest—the decline
world account for only 10 percent of in trust. The global 2020 Edelman
the world’s greenhouse gas emissions, Trust Barometer results showed that,
while the richest 10 percent is respon- even with a relatively strong global
sible for half. One of the gravest areas economy and near full employment,
for concern when it comes to climate “none of the four societal institutions
inequality is access to water. Countries that the study measures—govern-
that are home to one-fourth of Earth’s ment, business, NGOs, and media—is
population face a risk of running out trusted.” There is a growing sense that
of water. By 2030, the number of cities economic and political systems are
in the “extremely high” stress category built to benefit the few over the many.
is expected to rise to 45, and encom- Edelman reported income inequality
pass almost half a billion people. as affecting people’s trust more than
economic growth. The EIU found
Information Inequality & the “protests were driven by frustration
Internet Shutdown: with a government that was seen as
“Information poverty” has long been corrupt and self-serving, and unwill-
a major impediment to global de- ing or unable to tackle the political
velopment. Greater internet access and socioeconomic inequalities facing
correlates with improved outcomes its people.” As an example, in Latin
across a variety of measurable cat- America, mass protest across Bolivia,
egories (e.g., health and education). Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Haiti, and
Growing a poor nation’s mobile inter- Venezuela, was driven by things like
net use by 10 percent correlates with electoral fraud, corruption, and auster-
an average 2 percentage-point in- ity measures. “All expressed distrust in
crease in GDP, and electronic channels the political class and dissension from
have been effective in making gov- governments’ policy decisions.”
ernments more responsive to citizen
concerns. However, access remains
Trends to Watch in 2020 & Beyond 142015, “surveil, manipulate, and censor
The Global Youth Bulge:
the digital flow of information in their
The Most Connected
own country.”
Generation Ever
Facebook, Twitter, and WhatsApp
We are currently witnessing the largest
remain top social networks and tools
global youth population ever. There
for disinformation. Russia is reported
are 1.8 billion people between the ages
to have been testing new disinforma-
of 10 and 24, and this number is grow-
tion tactics in a big Facebook cam-
ing. Over the next 13 years, almost 2
paign in parts of Africa ahead of the
billion people will become part of the
2020 US presidential election. Malign
world’s youth cohort. In most develop-
foreign powers have weaponized the
ing countries, children and adolescents
infrastructure that underpins demo-
make up the majority of the popu-
cratic societies, hacking the internet,
lation. This global youth bulge has
media, and voting databases to sow
already begun to ignite political unrest,
disinformation. Other states are gravi-
and that dynamic will likely accelerate.
tating toward this high-impact, low-
Youth populations have always
cost strategy. Weeks before Mexico’s
been more idealistic than their old-
2018 presidential election, there was a
er counterparts, but today’s youth
surge in Twitter bot accounts sharing
cohort is also the most connected in
inaccurate stories. The majority of
history. Global youth are nearly twice
news sources shared by bots originat-
as networked online as the general
ed in Argentina, Iran, and Venezuela
population. And in the least developed
(as well as Russia).
countries, they are three times more
Even as we describe the flow of
likely than the general population to
this information linearly, we suspect
go online. That leads to the exponen-
it is far from that in reality. Experts
tial cross-pollination of culture, arts,
still can’t model how misinformation
media, entertainment, knowledge,
moves and impacts outcomes like
ideas, and networks—as well as aspira-
election results or political protest, but
tions and demands for their countries,
we suspect, as 70 countries deploy
and tools and tactics to organize, hold
bots, fake accounts, and trolls to
their leaders to account, and protest
spread misinformation and discontent,
(see the New Climate Narrative trend
they have no idea what new issues—in
for the climate demonstration of this).
what geographies—may be picked up
As ideas, tools, and networks spread
and amplified in the process, or even
online, it becomes a natural corollary
boomerang back to impact an unre-
for youth populations to coordinate
lated issue domestically. The result is
and demand more from those in posi-
engineered volatility and weaponized
tions of authority. Edelman captured
protest, alongside genuine effort.
this new sentiment well as a global
And while, for now, foreign med-
shift to “taking the future into their
dling operations remain largely in
own hands.”
the purview of state actors and their
proxies, other actors will enter the
fray as new technology and AI lower
Global Social Media Warfare
barriers to entry. One of the easiest
and Engineered Volatility
ways for non-state actors to manip-
According to a recent Oxford report,
ulate public opinion will be through
the number of countries engaging in
the use of increasingly sophisticated
social media manipulation more than
“deepfakes”—highly realistic and diffi-
doubled to 70 in the last two years.
cult-to-detect digital manipulations of
There is evidence of at least one politi-
audio or video. The most worrisome
cal party or government entity in each
future deepfake applications may be
of those countries spreading disinfor-
in politics and international affairs.
mation (via bots, fake social media
And social media is fertile ground for
accounts, and hired trolls) to discredit
proliferating deepfakes.
political opponents, bury opposing
views, interfere in foreign affairs, or, as
researcher Anita Gohdes asserted in
Trends to Watch in 2020 & Beyond 15leaders that do not represent their
Where Could This Lead?
young constituents. Most significant-
ly, taking a few steps — whether in a
Secessionism: democracy, autocracy, or something
Secessionism is on the rise. In 1915, in between, the current state of social
there were eight movements seek- unrest doesn’t look all that different.
ing their own independent state. In Dictators are in as much trouble as
2015, there were 59. Even though democratic leaders, As we look to this
more groups are trying to break next decade, more political upsets are
away, fewer are resorting to violence, on the horizon. “People have come
but rather protest and civic engage- to understand that their destinies are
ment. Secessionists are increasingly linked but their anger and activism
connecting with one another, of- is still framed in reformist claims. The
ten with the help of NGOs like the new is built on the wreckage of the
Unrepresented Nations and Peoples old, but we have no idea yet how the
Organization. UNPO provides a forum new might materialize.”3
for groups, including many secession-
ists, which lack official representation
in major international organizations.
Predicting Political & Social Unrest—
An Imprecise Science:
Ultimately, even the most expert ob-
Experts still can’t model how
servers will have a hard time project-
ing where social unrest will flare up
next. Coups and revolutions present
unique challenges for forecasters. One
of the most advanced forecasts comes
misinformation moves and impacts
from One Earth Future (OEF), an NGO
that publishes a predictive model,
outcomes like election results or
CoupCast. Factors in that model cor-
relating most strongly with the risk of
political protest, but we suspect,
a coup include: the rate of economic
growth; how long a regime has been as 70 countries deploy bots, fake
in power; how long since a country’s
most recent coup; and whether it has accounts, and trolls to spread
misinformation and discontent, they
faced extreme weather. Understanding
how difficult it is to forecast where,
when, and how this type of unrest
might manifest next, there are still
several questions we should consid-
have no idea what new issues—in
er. Since democracy appears to be
in global decline, what new political
what geographies—may be picked
models for reform may exist in the
near future? Will they be hybrids or
up and amplified in the process,
offshoots of conventional democracy?
Or even autocracy? Or are we overdue or even boomerang back to impact
for a new model that we haven’t even
conceived of yet? Will social media ul- an unrelated issue domestically.
The result is engineered volatility
timately prove to be a greater tool for
citizen organization or suppression?
Growing tensions within multieth-
nic states, increasing inequality, de-
clining trust, a youth bulge throughout
and weaponized protest, alongside
the developing world, and engineered
volatility, are all serving to ignite social
genuine effort.
unrest and cross-cultural conscious- 3 Open Democracy, Koenraad Bogaert, Jan 27, 2020,
ness, especially in countries with aging “From the Haitian revolution to the spectre of Tahrir: is a
global revolution possible”.
Trends to Watch in 2020 & Beyond 16Belonging:
As economies evolve, so do the socie-
tal constructs and belief systems that
they embody. For many years, we wit-
nessed the loss of faith in traditional
Searching for Place religions, institutions, and communities
that have failed to adapt to modern
times, evolving perceptions of right
In a Lonely World
and wrong, new familial structures,
and changing lifestyles. Widespread
education, globalization, even inter-
faith marriages, have led to more sec-
ularization, especially in countries with
high religious diversity. Across many
religious orders—Christian, Judaic,
Buddhist, Islamic, Hindu—disillusion-
ment with actions taken in the name
of religion or religious identity has led
some to embrace “new secularism.”
In the US, the share of the popula-
tion who does not identify with any or-
ganized religion is growing. Religious
“nones” in the US now equal the
number of evangelicals and Catholics.
According to the Public Religion
Research Institute, the number of
Americans with no religious affiliation
has been steadily rising since the late
1980s. Young people around the world
are less religious by several measures.
Trends to Watch in 2020 & Beyond 17A 2018 Pew Research poll across 106
countries found that adults under the Alongside the expansive innovation,
age of 40 are “significantly less likely
to be affiliated with a religious group.”
The gap is also common in Latin
economic growth, and globalization
America, where it applies in 14 out of
19 countries. Alongside the expansive
of the past decades, people took
innovation, economic growth, and glo-
balization of the past many decades,
their faith out of unyielding religious
people took their faith out of unyield-
ing religious institutions they were
institutions and put it into new ones—
raised with, and put it into new institu-
tions—science and technology, politics science and technology, politics and
and law, media, new social networks,
business, capitalism, and more. law, media, new social networks,
But we are now living in uncertain
times: changing geopolitical, econom-
ic, and sociocultural landscapes; great-
business, capitalism, and more. But we
er volatility, complexity, and inequity;
increasing loneliness and anxiety, and
are now living in uncertain times.
declining trust in institutions, leading
to heightened mental and emotional
strain. Despite good macro-economic
indicators, many people feel uncertain
about their future. The ritual of go-
ing to a place of worship each week
Rise of the Celebrity Guru: the Bay with Christ is “a nonprofit
once had an important role to play, in
On the footsteps of legendary gu- organization working to jumpstart a
finding kinship and community, mak-
rus such as Osho Rajneesh in the Jesus movement in the Bay Area that
ing sense of life’s challenges, finding
1970s, Indian acolytes are meeting the results in spiritual and societal trans-
stillness and peace beyond day-to-day
demands of renewed religious fervor formation.” The movement has made
routine. In times of disruptive change
in the country and around the world. significant inroads within the last
and declining trust, where are people
Mystic Sadhguru brings his message five years, with 500 churches across
putting their faith? How do they find
of Inner Engineering, building off of 30 locations in the Bay Area. A new
belonging, meaning, or a sense of
modern appreciation for and frustra- church has even been planted sole-
place in a lonely world? We are seeing
tion with materialistic achievement and ly for Walt Disney World employees.
new pillars of belonging emerge.
aspiration. “As there is a science and And just as surely as Silicon Valley is
technology to create external well-be- being impacted by churches, church-
Reviving Traditional Religion ing, there is a whole dimension of sci- es are being impacted by Silicon
Rise of Celebrity Churches: ence and technology for inner well-be- Valley. Concepts like “KROI” (Kingdom
From Kanye’s Sunday Service to ing.” Though he is not without critics, Return On Investment) help direct
churches like Zoe and Mosaic, Los Sadhguru’s YouTube channel has over funding in new church planting en-
Angeles’ new breed of celeb-laden 4 million subscribers; his message is deavors, backed by Evangelical groups
ministries have people, mostly young, clearly resonating. Art of Living founder who developed the concept of “church
searching for salvation, authenticity, Sri Sri Ravi Shankar is a spiritual hu- planting” 20 years ago, when trying
and spirituality. This form of evangeli- manitarian leader and teacher with true to solve for a basic problem—loss of
cal Christianity involves fashion, music, global presence. Sri Sri tours globally the young members they needed to
social media (especially Instagram), to spread his vision of “a Stress-Free, sustain their churches.
and celebrity. Recent attempts by Violence-Free World,” teaching his Art
churches to be more attractive to of Living course and leading medita- New Forms of Leadership:
secular populations have led cool tion sessions from India to Russia to Pope Francis and his push for open-
churches to emphasize “relationship” Amsterdam. His work and teachings are ness toward migrants, Muslims, and
over “religion.” Prayer candles have estimated to have reached 450 million gay people, may have less influence
even undergone a pop culture rebirth people across 156 countries. on the global political stage, where
with independent boutiques and Etsy nationalists and the far-right domi-
shops selling updated versions that Church Planting and Silicon Valley: nate, but his impact on the church is
replace the saints with celebrities. Silicon Valley remains one of the least sizable. By appointing cardinals and
religious parts of the US. Transforming bishops on the front lines of the faith,
Trends to Watch in 2020 & Beyond 18You can also read
