Ungleiche Narben - Verteilungseffekte der Pandemie - Deutscher Juristentag, 18. September 2020 - Europa EU

 
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Ungleiche Narben –
Verteilungseffekte
der Pandemie
Deutscher Juristentag,
18. September 2020

                                                       Prof. Dr. Isabel Schnabel
                         Mitglied des Direktoriums der Europäischen Zentralbank
                                                                 www.ecb.europa.eu ©
Starke Unterschiede in der Betroffenheit durch COVID-19

Gesamtzahl der COVID-19-Infektionen im internationalen                                                    Zahl aktiver COVID-19-Infektionen im europäischen
Vergleich (Pro Millionen Einwohner)                                                                       Vergleich (Pro Millionen Einwohner)
18,000                                                                                                   9,000
                                                                                    South                                                                                                               ES
16,000                                                                              America              8,000
14,000                                                                                                   7,000
                                                                                    North                                                                                                               BE
12,000                                                                              America              6,000
10,000                                                                                                   5,000                                                                                          NL
                                                                                    Rest of
 8,000                                                                              Europe               4,000
 6,000                                                                              (ex-EU)              3,000                                                                                          FR
                                                                                    European
 4,000                                                                              Union                2,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                        IT
 2,000                                                                                                   1,000
                                                                                    Rest of the
       0                                                                            World                    0                                                                                          DE
       Mar-20             May-20               Jul-20             Sep-20                                     Mar-20                 May-20                  Jul-20                 Sep-20
Source: Bloomberg.
Note: Counts are subject to change as governments survey and confirm cases. Data are based on             Source: Bloomberg.
reported infection numbers as of midnight EST at each date. Sources also include Johns Hopkins            Note: Active case numbers based on a 7-day moving average. Counts are subject to change as
University, World Health Organization, DXY, NHC, BNO News, China CDC, European CDC, US CDC,               governments survey and confirm cases. Data are based on reported values as of midnight EST at each
Italy Ministry of Health, Hong Kong Department of Health, Macau Government, Taiwan CDC,                   date. Based on population data as of 3 September 2020. Sources include Johns Hopkins University,
Government of Canada, Australia Government Department of Health, and Ministry of Health Singapore.        World Health Organization, DXY, NHC, BNO News, European CDC, Italy Ministry of Health.

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Scharfer Einbruch der Wirtschaftsleistung bei ausgeprägter Heterogenität

 Reales Bruttoinlandprodukt (BIP): Euroraum                                                              Jährliches Wachstum des realen BIP: Deutschland,
 (Index: 2019Q4 = 100)                                                                                   Frankreich, Italien und Spanien (Prozent)
                                                                                                                     2019               2020 (forecast)                 2021 (forecast)
                                                                                                         10
110                                                                                                       8
                                                                                                          6
105
                                                                                                          4
100                                                                                                       2

 95                                                                                                       0
                                                                                                          -2
 90                                                                                                       -4
 85                                                                                                       -6
                                                                                                          -8
 80
                                                                                                         -10
 75                                                                                                      -12
      2019                    2020                     2021                     2022                                   DE                    FR                    IT               ES
Source: ECB (Macroeconomic Projection Exercise, September 2020).                                         Source: European Commission (Summer Economic Forecast, July 2020).
Note: The grey area indicates the range of ECB staff projections that cover the different pandemic
scenarios included in the Macroeconomic Projection Exercise.
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Unterschiede der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung
                                              aufgrund der Lockdown-Maßnahmen und struktureller Faktoren

          Ausmaß staatlicher Einschränkungen vs. Prognose des                                                                Anteil Tourismus an Dienstleistungsexporten vs.
          realen BIP-Wachstums in 2020 (Index, Prozent)                                                                      Prognose des realen BIP-Wachstums in 2020 (Prozent)
                               -4                                                                                                                  -4

                               -5                                                                                                                  -5

                                                                                                                    Real GDP growth in 2020 (%)
Real GDP growth in 2020 (%)

                                                                                                                                                            LU         MT
                               -6                                     DE                                                                           -6
                                         FI                 LU                                                                                                   FI      DE
                                                                              NL
                               -7                                     AT                                                                           -7                 NL    LV                SI
                                               EE    LV     SI                 LT                                                                                                CY      AT
                                                                                                        CY                                                               LT       EE
                               -8                                                                                                                  -8
                                                                                    EA             IE                                                       IE
                               -9                                          SK BE                                                                   -9            BE                    SK                 GR
                                                                               GR
                              -10                                                           PT                                                    -10                                                            PT
                                                                                                           FR                                                                    FR
                              -11                                                     ES                                                          -11                                                             ES
                                                                                                          IT                                                                                         IT
                              -12                                                                                                                 -12
                                    45        50       55        60           65           70            75                                             0        10        20         30          40        50           60
                                              Stringency Index (average 1 March-30 June)                                                                         Travel exports in % of total services exports

          Source: European Commission (Summer Economic Forecast, July 2020), University of Oxford.                           Source: European Commission (Summer Economic Forecast, July 2020), Eurostat Balance of
          Note: The Oxford Stringency Index defines the stringency of national crisis measures between 0 (no                 Payments.
          restrictions) and 100 (maximum level of restrictions).

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Abfederung der Krise durch fiskalische Maßnahmen

Anteil der Beschäftigten in den von Einschränkungen                                                        Arbeitslosenquote und Erwerbstätige in Kurzarbeit
stark betroffenen Wirtschaftssektoren (Prozent)                                                            (Prozent)
35                                                                                                                 Unemployment rate      Share of workers in job retention schemes
                                                                                                                   Unemployment rate in February
30
                                                                                                           25
25
                                                                                                           20
20
                                                                                                           15
15
                                                                                                           10
10

  5                                                                                                         5

  0                                                                                                         0
            ES               IT            DE              FR              NL             BE                              DE                       FR                       IT                       ES
Source: EU Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC), 2018.                                     Source: Eurostat; Bundesagentur für Arbeit and ifo Institute Munich; Ministère du Travail, de L’Emploi et de
Note: The chart shows the distribution of the share of employees in lockdown sectors across 6              L’Insertion; INPS; Ministerio de Inclusión, Seguridad Social y Migraciones, and ECB staff computations.
largest euro area countries. Lockdown sectors are: wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor             Latest observation: July 2020 for the unemployment rate; July 2020 for the number of workers in ERTE in
vehicles and motorcycles; transporting and storage; accommodation and food service activities; arts,       Spain; June 2020 for the number of workers in Kurzarbeit in Germany and Activité Partielle in France; May
entertainment and recreation (sectors G, H, I and R in the Statistical Classification of Economic          2020 for the number of workers in Cassa Integrazione in Italy.
Activities in the European Community (NACE) classification).

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Fiskalische Spielräume begrenzen fiskalische Reaktionen

 Staatsverschuldung im Euroraum:                                           Prognose des realen BIP-Wachstums für 2020 und
 2019 vs. Prognose für 2021 (Prozent des BIP)                              Umfang des nationalen fiskalischen Stimulus (Prozent)
                              2019                              2021                                       Real GDP growth                      Fiscal stimulus
200
180                                                                          Germany

160
                                                                            Euro Area
140
120                                                                                  Italy
100
                                                                                 France
 80
 60                                                                               Spain
 40
                                                                                             0           -2            -4           -6            -8          -10           -12
 20
                                                                           Source: European Commission (Ameco).
  0                                                                        Note: Real GDP growth estimates are based on data published by the European Commission (Summer
                                                                           Economic Forecast, July 2020). Fiscal stimulus estimates are based on data published by the European
       SK

        SI
       EE

       AT
       EA
       ES

       BE
       PT
        FI

       GR
       FR
       NL
        IE

       DE

       CY

        IT
       LU
       LT
       LV
       MT

                                                                           Commission (Spring Economic Forecast, May 2020), the most recent harmonised projection. These
                                                                           estimates therefore do not include the latest announcements of fiscal support measures. Fiscal stimulus
 Source: European Commission (Spring Economic Forecast, May 2020).         is calculated as the change in the primary deficit, adjusted for cyclical effects.

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Verhinderung einer Finanzkrise und Rückgang der Fragmentierung
                                        durch die Geldpolitik

 Indikator für systemischen Stress im Finanzmarkt                                                         Renditedifferenz zu 10-jährigen deutschen
 (CISS) (Index)                                                                                           Staatsanleihen (Basispunkte)
                              Euro area                US                                                                 Italy             Greece          Portugal        Spain
1.0                                                               1.0                                    450
                                                                                     PEPP                                 PEPP                   French-
0.9                                                               0.9                                    400
                                                                                     announce-                     announcement                 German
0.8                                                               0.8                ment                350                               recovery fund
                                                                  0.7                                                                           proposal
0.7                                                                                                      300
0.6                                                               0.6
                                                                                                         250
0.5                                                               0.5
                                                                                                         200
0.4                                                               0.4
                                                                                                         150
0.3                                                               0.3
                                                                  0.2                                    100
0.2
0.1                                                               0.1                                     50

0.0                                                               0.0                                      0
   1999      2003       2007      2011       2015       2019        01-Jan          01-Jun                 Jan-20                 Mar-20           May-20        Jul-20        Sep-20
Source: ECB Working Paper No. 1426.                                                                       Source: Bloomberg.
Note: CISS denotes the Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress (0 = No stress,1 = High stress). The        Latest observation: 16 September 2020.
indicator aggregates stress signals from money, bond, equity and foreign
exchange markets.
Latest observation: 14 September 2020.                                                               7                                                           www.ecb.europa.eu ©
Heterogene Auswirkungen der Krise auf Einkommensgruppen

Anteil der Erwerbstätigen in Lockdown-Sektoren                                                              Ausgabenkategorien und Ersparnisse nach
nach Einkommensquintilen (Prozent)                                                                          Einkommensquintilen (Euro)
45                                                                                                             Saving                                             Postponable spending
                                                                                                               Spending restricted by lockdown                    Unaffected spending (necessities)
40                                                                                                          80000
35
                                                                                                            60000
30

25                                                                                                          40000

20
                                                                                                            20000
15

10                                                                                                               0
                                                                                                                            0-20            20-40             40-60             60-80            80-100
  5                                                                                                          Source: Household Budget Survey.
                                                                                                             Note: The chart shows the structure of household expenditures (spending) and saving across
                                                                                                             income quintiles. Blue bars denote necessities, items unaffected by lockdown, such as food at
  0                                                                                                          home, housing and utilities, health items, communications and education. Yellow bars denote items
             0-20              20-40              40-60              60-80             80-100                restricted by the lockdown, such as food in restaurants, transport services, holidays, hotels and
                                                                                                             cultural services. Red bars denote postponable spending items, such as purchases of motor
Source: EU Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC), 2018; Ireland and Slovakia 2017.
                                                                                                             vehicles, clothing and footwear, and furnishings and furniture. Green bars show household saving.
Note: The chart shows the distribution of the share of employees in lockdown sectors across quintiles
                                                                                                             The chart shows an aggregate of Germany, Spain and France.
of the income distribution in the euro area.

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Bildung senkt Betroffenheit durch Lockdown-Maßnahmen,
                                                         Home Schooling verschärft Bildungsunterschiede

Anteil der Arbeitnehmer mit tertiärem Bildungsabschluss                                                                  Leistungsnachweise je nach geschätztem Haushalts-
vs. Anteil der Arbeitsstunden im Home Office (Prozent)                                                                   einkommen in den Vereinigten Staaten (Index)

                                     100%                                                                                                           High                    Low                     Middle
  % home office hours (late March)

                                                                                                                             60
                                                                                                                                                 Authorities announce and
                                     80%                          Public services       Financial                                                enforce school closures to
                                                                                                         Education           40                  slow down the spread of
                                                                  Environment,
                                                                                              Business                                           COVID-19 infections
                                                                    culture &
                                     60%                                                      services                       20
                                                                   recreation
                                                  Transport &
                                                 communication Other                                                          0
                                     40%                            Industry
                                                       Retail
                                                                               Healthcare &                                 -20
                                                              Construction
                                     20%           Catering                      welfare
                                                                                                                            -40

                                      0%                                                                                    -60
                                            0%       20%      40%          60%         80%                  100%                   Jan            Feb                 Mar                      Apr                 May
                                                       % workers with tertiary education
Source: von Gaudecker et al. (2020), Longitudinal Internet Studies for the Social Sciences (LISS),                       Source: Zearn, Inc., Opportunity Insights.
CentERdata/Tilburg University.                                                                                           Note: Average number of students using Zearn math teaching program (in a week) relative to January
Note: Data refer to survey results obtained in the Netherlands between 20 March and 31 March 2020.                       6-February 7, 2020. The lines show ZIP codes in bottom 25% of income [low], 25%-75% [middle] and
Response rate: 80% (5,544 individuals).                                                                                  above 75% [high]. A similar chart was published by The Economist on 27 July 2020.

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Jüngere Arbeitnehmer und Frauen
                                          besonders von Lockdown-Maßnahmen betroffen
                                                                                                           Arbeitsangebot in Rezessionen nach Geschlecht
Anteil der Erwerbstätigen in Lockdown-Sektoren                                                             (Verhältnis der Arbeitsstunden weiblich vs. männlich,
nach Alter und Geschlecht (Prozent)                                                                        Quartale nach Beginn der Rezession)
                                   Male                            Female                                    0.9
  45
                                                                                                           0.88                                           To be formatted
  40
                                                                                                           0.86
  35
                                                                                                           0.84
  30
                                                                                                           0.82
  25
                                                                                                                                                                   Regular recession
                                                                                                             0.8
  20                                                                                                                                                               Pandemic recession
  15                                                                                                        0.78

  10                                                                                                        0.76

    5                                                                                                       0.74

    0                                                                                                       0.72
         Under 25 25-34              35-44        45-54        55-64         65+           All                         0                  5                  10                  15              20
Source: EU Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC), 2018; Ireland and Slovakia 2017.          Source: Alon, Doepke, Olmstead-Rumsey and Tertilt (2020).
Note: The chart shows the distribution of the share of employees in lockdown sectors across age and        Note: Chart is based on Figure 4 in the latest available paper draft (August 2020).
gender.

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Vielen Dank für Ihre Aufmerksamkeit!

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