VALUATION REPORT For - Santiago Capital
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VALUATION REPORT
For
Santiago Capital DAC and Belatrix Limited
Subject Property
86 Jamestown Road, Inchicore, Dublin 8
90-96 Jamestown Road, Inchicore, Dublin 8
Valuation Date Report Date
Private & Confidential
27 October
Valuation Report 2020 Jamestown Road,
14Dublin
December
8. 2020 1
CONTENTS
1 TERMS OF REFERENCE .................................................................................................................................. 3
1.1 Addressee ................................................................................................................................................... 3
1.2 Subject of Valuation ..................................................................................................................................... 3
1.3 Instruction and Purpose of Valuation ........................................................................................................... 3
1.4 Property Type and Classification ................................................................................................................. 3
1.5 Interest to be Valued ................................................................................................................................... 3
1.6 Basis of Valuation ........................................................................................................................................ 4
1.7 Specific and Standard Assumptions ............................................................................................................ 4
1.8 Special Assumptions ................................................................................................................................... 4
1.9 Date of Valuation ......................................................................................................................................... 4
1.10 Conflict and Disclosure ............................................................................................................................ 4
1.11 Status ....................................................................................................................................................... 5
1.12 Professional Indemnity............................................................................................................................. 5
1.13 Inspection................................................................................................................................................. 5
1.14 Extent of investigation and sources of information .................................................................................. 5
1.15 Restrictions on Publication and Limits on Liability ................................................................................... 5
1.16 Personnel ................................................................................................................................................. 5
1.17 Compliance with GDPR ........................................................................................................................... 5
1.18 Other Matters ........................................................................................................................................... 6
1.19 Material Uncertainty (COVID-19) ............................................................................................................. 6
2 PROPERTY DETAILS ........................................................................................................................................ 7
2.1 Location ....................................................................................................................................................... 7
2.2 Description ................................................................................................................................................. 10
2.2.1 Accommodation .................................................................................................................................. 14
2.2.2 State of Repair ................................................................................................................................... 14
2.2.3 BER rating .......................................................................................................................................... 14
2.2.4 Environmental Considerations ........................................................................................................... 14
2.2.5 Services .............................................................................................................................................. 17
2.3 Legal .......................................................................................................................................................... 17
2.3.1 Title ..................................................................................................................................................... 17
2.4 Town Planning ........................................................................................................................................... 20
2.4.1 Zoning ................................................................................................................................................ 20
2.4.2 Planning Applications ......................................................................................................................... 21
3 MARKET ........................................................................................................................................................... 23
3.1 Economic Update ...................................................................................................................................... 23
3.2 Development Land Market ........................................................................................................................ 28
4 VALUATION Approach ..................................................................................................................................... 35
4.1 Valuation Rationale ................................................................................................................................... 35
5 VALUATIONS ................................................................................................................................................... 39
5.1 Market Value ............................................................................................................................................. 39
5.2 Confidentiality Clause ................................................................................................................................ 39
APPENDICES .......................................................................................................................................................... 41
Valuation Report Jamestown Road, Dublin 8. 2
1 TERMS OF REFERENCE 1.1 Addressee Santiago Capital DAC and Belatrix Limited, 19 Grattan St, Saint Peter's, Dublin 2, D02 P951 FAO: Mr Graham Cawley 1.2 Borrower Fastnet Properties LLC. 1.3 Subject of Valuation 86 Jamestown Road, Inchicore, Dublin 8 90-96 Jamestown Road, Inchicore, Dublin 8 1.4 Instruction and Purpose of Valuation We have been instructed to value the sites below. As set out in our terms of engagement of 12 December 2020, and as agreed with both the client and the borrower, the valuation has been readdressed from the borrower to the client. The valuation is for secured lending purposes. 1.5 Property Type and Classification Development sites. 86 Jamestown Road, Inchicore, Dublin 8 A development site of approx. 0.186 ha (0.46 acre) with an industrial building in-situ which extends to approx. 1,249 sq m (13,447 sq ft). 90-96 Jamestown Road, Inchicore, Dublin 8 A development site of approx. 0.4ha (0.99 acre) comprising an obsolete detached industrial complex, subdivided into a number of small storage, workshop, and studio units extending to a total floor area of approx. 2,728 sq m (29,361 sq ft).. 1.6 Interest Valued We have assumed that the properties are held freehold. We have also assumed a good and marketable title for each. We have not had sight of title deeds. Valuation Report Jamestown Road, Dublin 8. 3
1.7 Basis of Valuation
Our valuation has been prepared in accordance with the RICS Valuation – Global Standards published by the
Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) on the basis of Market Value as defined in VPS 4 Section 4.
Market Value as fully explained in the appendices hereto, and is defined as follows:
Market Value is “The estimated amount for which a property should exchange on the date of valuation between a
willing buyer and a willing seller in an arm's-length transaction after proper marketing wherein the parties had each
acted knowledgeably, prudently and without compulsion.”
No allowance has been made for any expenses of realisation, or for taxation (including VAT) which might arise in
the event of a disposal and the property has been considered free and clear of all mortgages or other charges
which may be secured thereon.
1.8 Specific and Standard Assumptions
We highlight the following specific assumptions which we have adopted that are relevant to this specific valuation:
• Assume no issues with the site, ground conditions, contamination, pyrite, radon, or flooding
• Assume good and marketable title
• Assume all mains services are available for connection to facilitate future development
• Assume compliance with planning, fire, building and environmental regulations
• Reliance on schedules of accommodation, floor plans, specification, and floor areas provided
We have made certain “Assumptions” in relation to facts, conditions or situations affecting the subject of, or
approach to, our valuation that we have not verified as part of the valuation process. Our standard assumptions
are outlined in the appendices.
1.9 Special Assumptions
A Special Assumption is one that assumes facts that differ from the actual facts existing at the valuation date (Red
Book Glossary). A special assumption may only be made if they can be regarded as realistic, relevant, and valid,
in connection with the particular circumstances of the valuation (see VPS 4).
We have not made any special assumptions in this case.
1.10 Date of Valuation
27 October 2020
1.11 Conflict and Disclosure
We have previously valued the subject sites on behalf of the Borrower, including this subject report which is to be
readdressed to the Client.
Both parties are fully aware of this background, and have agreed to proceeding on this basis.
We therefore do not consider there to be any material conflict of interest in this matter.
The fee from this instruction is less than 1% of the annual TWM fee income.
Valuation Report Jamestown Road, Dublin 8. 4
1.12 Status In preparing this valuation we have acted as External Valuers, subject to any disclosures made to you, the Client. 1.13 Professional Indemnity We confirm that we currently have professional indemnity cover in place for €20m through Zurich and Others. 1.14 Inspection The property was last inspected externally and internally by Maurice O’Neill MSCSI MRICS Director Registered Valuer and Ausra Marcelyte, Graduate Surveyor on 17 May 2018. The current update valuation has been carried out on a desktop basis, without reinspection. 1.15 Extent of investigation and sources of information We have relied upon information provided by the client including floor areas and floor plans and details of the proposed scheme. Whilst we cannot confirm the accuracy of the information referred to above, we have exercised our professional judgement in determining the reliability of the source of the information and confirm that we are prepared to professionally rely upon it. 1.16 Restrictions on Publication and Limits on Liability This report and valuation is confidential to the party to whom it is addressed or their professional advisors. No responsibility or liability whatsoever shall be accepted from any Third Parties and neither the whole nor any part of this letter, nor reference thereto, may be published in any document, statement or circular, nor in any communication with Third Parties, without prior written approval of the form and context in which it will appear. 1.17 Personnel The valuation has been prepared by Maurice O’Neill MSCSI MRICS Director, Registered Valuer, with support from Ausra Marcelyte Graduate Surveyor. We confirm that the personnel responsible for the valuation have the knowledge, skills and understanding to undertake the valuation competently and they are qualified for the purpose of the valuation in accordance with RICS Valuation Global Standards. 1.18 Compliance with GDPR TWM is committed to ensuring that your privacy is protected and that the responsible use of personal information collected, either requested directly or via our websites, is critical to our business objectives and reputation. We may obtain, use, process and disclose personal data about the parties in order that we may discharge the services agreed under this engagement letter, and for other related purposes including updating and enhancing client records, analysis for management purposes and statutory returns, crime prevention and legal and regulatory compliance. We confirm when processing data on your behalf that we will comply with the relevant provisions of the Data Protection Acts 1998 to 2018 and the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) referred to as “Relevant Data Protection Legislation”. You also confirm that any personal data you provide to us complies with the Relevant Data Protection Legislation. Valuation Report Jamestown Road, Dublin 8. 5
Where you give us confidential information, we confirm that we shall at all times keep it confidential, other than as required by law, by our insurers, or as provided for in regulatory (including external peer reviews), ethical or other professional statements relevant to our engagement. This will apply during and after this engagement. 1.19 Other Matters Brexit occurred on 31 January 2020, however negotiations on the future trading relationship between the EU and the UK are running during 2020, and the UK have confirmed that they are not seeking an extension to the transition period which expires on 31 December 2020. Therefore, risks remain of a hard Brexit which could have negative impacts on the Irish economy. In Budget 2021 the stamp duty rates remained unchanged, with commercial property remaining at 7.5% and residential over €1,000,000 at 2%. The higher rate of VAT has been reduced from 23% to 21% for a 6 month period from September 2020. This has a nominal saving in purchaser costs for investments, taking the rate for commercial property from 9.96% to 9.92%, and 4.46% to 4.42% for residential, for this period. As it is a temporary measure we have not adjusted the analysis of comparables as it would practically be difficult to determine the actual rate applicable to individual transactions for this short period of time. Therefore, we have retained the standard rates. The Government announced that Ireland would enter Level 5, the highest level of restricting under the Living With COVID Plan, for period of 6 weeks from midnight on 22 October 2020. This is a significant escalation of restrictions, which will result in many businesses having to close, and severe restrictions on movement. Construction work is permitted to continue. 1.20 Material Uncertainty (COVID-19) The SCSI issued the following Guidance in regard to Valuation Uncertainty arising from COVID-19: The outbreak of the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19), declared by the World Health Organisation as a “Global Pandemic” on the 11th March 2020, has impacted global financial markets. Travel restrictions have been implemented by many countries. Market activity is being impacted in many sectors. As at the valuation date, TWM consider that we can attach less weight to previous market evidence for comparison purposes, to inform opinions of value. Indeed, the current response to COVID-19 means that we are faced with an unprecedented set of circumstances on which to base a judgement. Our valuations will therefore be reported on the basis of ‘material valuation uncertainty’ as per VPS 3 and VPGA 10 of the RICS Red Book Global. Consequently, less certainty – and a higher degree of caution – should be attached to our valuation than would normally be the case. Given the unknown future impact that COVID-19 might have on the real estate market, we recommend that you keep the valuation of the Property under frequent review. While the SCSI have indicated that it may be appropriate for the Material Uncertainty clause to be lifted for certain sectors, the development land sector remain subject to this provision. Valuation Report Jamestown Road, Dublin 8. 6
2 PROPERTY DETAILS
2.1 Location
The subject properties are located in Inchicore, Dublin 8 approx. 5 km west of Dublin City Centre. Inchicore is a
primarily residential south suburb of Dublin which lies south of the River Liffey, west of Kilmainham, north of
Drimnagh and east of Ballyfermot.
The area is easily accessed by car with the N7 Naas Road and M50 Junction 9 situated approx. 0.5 km to the east
and approx. 3.5 km to the south east of the subject property respectively. Access to Dublin City Centre is provided
via Davitt Road which runs alongside the Grand Canal.
The area is well serviced by public transport with Blackhorse Red Line Luas Stop situated approx. 0.5 km to the
east of the subject and numerous Dublin Bus routes passing on Tyrconnell Road and Naas Road (N7).
Location Map – Inchicore
The subject properties are situated on the western end of Jamestown Road approx. 0.4 km west of Tyrconnell and
Jamestown Roads T-junction. 90-96 Jamestown Road is adjacent to the bollards separating Jamestown Road and
Kylemore Way. Both sites are adjacent to the Ritchie sweet manufacturing premises to the south.
Valuation Report Jamestown Road, Dublin 8. 7
The immediate area on the Jamestown Road side is predominantly in residential use with a small number of
tertiary industrial facilities while the Kylemore Way side is predominantly in industrial use, including the adjoining
Jamestown Industrial Estate to its western boundary. CIE is the main land holder to the north of the property.
Location Map – Jamestown Road, Inchicore
Google Satellite View – Jamestown Road, Inchicore
Valuation Report Jamestown Road, Dublin 8. 8
These premises have a right of way through the shared local access road from Jamestown Road to the eastern
boundary of the subject property. We understand that there is a strip of land to the north of Ritchie’s that forms
part of the 86 Jamestown Road which Ritchie’s have a right of way. However, it is currently enclosed by Ritchie’s
and used as part of their facility. The approximate area of this strip of ground extends to approx. of 0.16 acre.
Location of Subject Properties (Indicative Boundaries Only)
According to Planning and Property Development Strategic Policy Committee (February 2019, DCC), there are
plans to potentially rezone large land banks in the city (Z14) to allow a potential for regeneration in the areas that
are within close proximity to the city centre. Z14 provides for a sustainable mixed use approach at a large scale in
key growth areas of the City typically identified as Strategic Development and Regeneration Areas (SDRAs). One
of the Potential Z14 (Regeneration) New Growth Areas include the lands to the west of the subject sites.
Valuation Report Jamestown Road, Dublin 8. 9
2.2 Description
The subject property comprises two adjoining industrial facilities that are held as brownfield development sites,
both fronting Jamestown Road, and separated by a local access road that also provides access to lands behind.
The properties combined provide a broadly level site of approximately 1.5 acre, which is zoned Z10 (mixed use).
Subject Sites – Jamestown Studios (89 Jamestown Road) and Jamestown Market (90-96 Jamestown Road)
86 Jamestown Road, Inchicore, Dublin 8 (Jamestown Studios)
The subject property comprises an irregular shaped corner site extending to approx. 0.186 ha (0.46 acre) with a
double frontage onto Jamestown Road of approx. 45m to the north and approx. 59m to a local access road to its
western boundary.
86 Jamestown Road – Front View 86 Jamestown Road – Front View
There is a detached dated industrial building known as Jamestown Studios, on the site providing for a combination
of workshop, warehouse and office accommodation. The existing building comprises an approx. Gross External
Area of 1,250 sqm (13,455 sq ft).
Valuation Report Jamestown Road, Dublin 8. 10The property is fully enclosed by fencing and boundary walls, presently providing enclosed parking to the front and
side of the industrial building with gated vehicular and pedestrian access off Jamestown Road.
86 Jamestown Road – Side View
We understand that the Client submitted a planning application for a residential development to the Dublin City
Council in 2018. The application was refused. The proposed development entailed the conversion and expansion
of the existing structure to provide urban loft style accommodation within and the conventional apartments within
the newly constructed 2nd floor and sides of the building. (Please see Section 2.4.2 Planning Applications of this
report for further details).
90-96 Jamestown Road, Inchicore, Dublin 8 (Jamestown Market)
The subject site comprises a regular shaped site extending to approx. 0.4086 ha (1 acre) with a frontage onto
Jamestown Road of approx. 60 m to the north and approx. 51 m to a local access road to its eastern boundary.
There is a dated detached industrial complex, known as Jamestown Market, on the subject site extending to
approx. 2,728 sq m (29,361 sq ft). The entire is subdivided into a number of small storage, workshop, and studio
units along with a rear two storey block of dilapidated office accommodation.
90-96 Jamestown Road – Front View 90-96 Jamestown Road – Side View (West)
Valuation Report Jamestown Road, Dublin 8. 11The buildings are of steel frame construction, with mainly north light style asbestos cement roof covers and a mix
of block and brick walls. The clear internal height is approx. 3.6m. The subject property also comprises a disused
water storage tank sited in the rear yard. The property is fully enclosed by fencing and boundary walls.
Rear Offices Internal View (Jamestown Market)
There is car parking provided to the front of the building, accessed off Jamestown Road and limited loading
facilities in a yard to the rear accessed off a shared access road to the eastern boundary of the property. Goods
vehicle access to the property is hampered due to the residential parking permitted on both sides of Jamestown
Road.
We understand that it is proposed for the combined sites to be developed as a residential scheme, subject to
achieving planning, which is expected to be applied for under the SHD process. We understand that pre-planning
engagements have been ongoing with the local authority and An Bord Pleanala for over a year, and that the
scheme set out in an Architectural Design Statement prepared by vanDijk Architects dated October 2019 is in the
process of being amended to reflect feedback. The Design Statement indicates “The project consists of the
development of two plots of land for 127 residential units which comprises of a mix of studios, apartments and
duplexes with associated community crèche facility, cycle storage and communal open spaces. The west and east
blocks provide a range of house types to cater for one, two and three bed options. There are two components in
the proposal (west and east blocks), these are linked via a footbridge on the second floor”.
A revised scheme is also expected to provide for a Build to Rent (BTR) scheme, which would involve a different
mix of units, and a material reduction car parking.
Valuation Report Jamestown Road, Dublin 8. 12Extracts from Design Concept (Oct 2019) – Currently being Amended Valuation Report Jamestown Road, Dublin 8. 13
2.2.1 Accommodation As agreed, and instructed, for the purpose of our valuation, we have utilised the site areas as per our previous valuations. Property Size (ha) Size (acres) 86 Jamestown Road, Inchicore, Dublin 8 0.186 0.46 90-96 Jamestown Road, Inchicore, Dublin 8 0.4086 1.00 2.2.2 State of Repair We have not been instructed to undertake any structural surveys, tests for services, or arrange for any investigations to be carried out to determine whether any deleterious materials have been used in the construction of the subject property. We note that all of the existing industrial buildings are in a poor condition. Unless otherwise confirmed, our valuation has been undertaken on the basis that all mains services are and would be available for connection to the potential development. We have also assumed that mains electricity and water are connected to the property and that drainage is to the mains sewer. We have not carried out any tests on services. 2.2.3 BER rating We have not been provided with BER ratings for the existing properties. . 2.2.4 Environmental Considerations We have assumed that the property is not affected by environmental contamination and have not carried out any tests / surveys in this regard. We assume there are no deleterious materials in the property. Flooding We have undertaken an online search of the OPW Flood Maps on myplan.ie. No issues of note were identified on the website. We note that the subject property (outlined in red circle for indicative purposes only) does not appear to be in any identified flood risk zone, as per the map below. Valuation Report Jamestown Road, Dublin 8. 14
OPW Flood Maps Contamination We noted no obvious contaminative uses above ground upon the previous inspection. However, both properties were previously in industrial use for many years, and the therefore it would be advisable to have environmental investigations carried out. We note that there is Seveso site identified on the Development Plan map within the CIE lands located on the northern side Jamestown Road (see red circle on extract below). The subject sites are withing the Z10 zoning shown in green: Valuation Report Jamestown Road, Dublin 8. 15
Seveso Site (Red Circle) located to the north of the subject lands (within Z10 green zoning) We would stress that we have not carried out, nor are we qualified to carry out an Environmental Audit. Our comments are therefore merely a guide and should not be relied upon. If you require confirmation of the position, we strongly recommend that an initial Environmental Audit is carried out. Masts and Lines No masts or high voltage power lines pass over the Property. Contaminative Species We did not note the presence of Japanese Knotweed or other contaminative species during the course of our inspection in 2018 and have not been advised that any are present. Asbestos This material was regularly used during the 1960’s and 1970’s. In July 2006 new regulations relating to asbestos were introduced (Safety, Health and Welfare at Work (Exposure to Asbestos) Regulations 2006). The Regulations transpose a number of EU Directives and apply to all work activities which expose persons to risks arising from the inhalation of dust from asbestos or materials containing asbestos. The Regulations aim to protect employees by introducing a single exposure limit value for all work activities where exposure to asbestos dust in the air may arise. The Health and Safety Authority (HSA) has legal powers under the European Communities (Protection of Workers) (Exposure to Asbestos) Regulations, 1989 (as amended) to ensure the protection of workers from the risks related to asbestos exposure. The Authority is responsible for regulating/overseeing persons involved in work with asbestos, including professional asbestos removal, and surveying firms so as to ensure that the worker protection legislation is implemented. The Property is of an age where use of asbestos as a building material is likely to be present, which has implications in terms of the obligations and processes for removal and disposal. Valuation Report Jamestown Road, Dublin 8. 16
2.2.5 Services
We have assumed for the purpose of our valuation that all necessary mains services are supplied and connected
to existing premises.
We assume that mains services will be available to allow for future development of the lands. We have been
informed engagements are ongoing with Irish Water in regard to future works proposed to the water services in
this immediate area.
2.3 Legal
2.3.1 Title
We note from the landdirect.ie website extracts below that the sites appear to be split between various folios
freehold and long leasehold folios. We also note that the access road located between both sites also appears to
be split between two folios.
For the purposes of our valuation we have assumed a good and marketable title for all folios. We have also
assumed that all titles have no onerous conditions, easements, wayleaves or any other adverse factors affecting
the use, enjoyment or development of the Property and that full rights of access and servicing are in order. We
have not had sight of the title deeds.
86 Jamestown Road, Inchicore, Dublin 8
We understand that the property is held part freehold and part long leasehold as per the below extracts from
landdirect.ie.
Freehold Folio DN6085
Valuation Report Jamestown Road, Dublin 8. 17Freehold Folio DN6086
Long Leasehold Folio DN154040L
90-96 Jamestown Road, Inchicore, Dublin 8
We understand that the property is held part freehold and part long leasehold as per the below extracts from
landdirect.ie.
Valuation Report Jamestown Road, Dublin 8. 18Long Leasehold Folio DN162771L
Freehold Folio DN4577
We assume good and marketable title, with full vacant possession.
Valuation Report Jamestown Road, Dublin 8. 192.4 Town Planning
2.4.1 Zoning
Under the Dublin City Council Development Plan 2016 – 2022 the subject sites are zoned as zoning objective
Zone Z10 (Inner Suburban (Sustainable Mixed-Use)): “To consolidate and facilitate the development of inner city
and inner suburban sites for mixed-uses, with residential the predominant use in suburban locations, and
office/retail/residential the predominant uses in inner city areas”.
The sites were previously zoned as Z6 (Enterprise and Employment) and it were rezoned Z10 (Inner Suburban)
under the Dublin City Council Development Plan 2016-2022.
Permissible Uses
Bed and breakfast, betting office, buildings for the health, safety and welfare of the public; Childcare facility, Craft
centre/craft shop, Cultural/recreational building and uses, Education, embassy office, embassy residential,
financial institution, guest house, halting site, home-based economic activity, hostel, hotel, live-work units, medical
and related consultants, motor sales showroom, office, open space, part off-licence, public service installation,
residential, restaurant, shop (neighborhood).
Open for Consideration Uses
Amusement/leisure complex, car park, car trading, civic and amenity/recycling centre, civic offices, community
facility, conference centre, enterprise centre, funeral home, garden centre, internet café, media-associated uses,
off-licence, petrol station, place of public worship, science and technology-based industry, shop (district), take-
away, training centre, veterinary surgery, warehousing (retail/non-food)/retail park.
Zoning Extract
Valuation Report Jamestown Road, Dublin 8. 202.4.2 Planning Applications
From an online search of Dublin City Council website, we note the following planning applications and permissions
related to the subject property.
We highlight that this should not be considered as a detailed planning search, and that we cannot provide an
opinion as to the whether the property is compliant with planning or other regulatory requirements.
Ref No. / Description Decision
Applicant
4146/18 86, Jamestown Road, Dublin 8 Refused Permission
Fastnet Development including change of use, partial demolition and construction. The 03 December 2018
Properties proposed development includes the change of use of the existing property at No.
LLC 86 from industrial and warehousing to residential, partial demolition of the existing Reason 1. The
structure and construction works resulting in new northern and southern building development of an entirely
components (3 no. storeys) and an additional floor on the remaining, existing residential development at
structure (Increase from existing 2 no. storeys to 3 no. storeys) to provide 23 no. this location would
apartment units (1 no. studio, 11 no. 1-bed, 7 no. 2-bed and 4 no. 3-bed). contravene the zoning
Permission is also sought for: 1 no. communal balcony/terrace, 19 no. private objective Z10
balconies/terraces and 13 no. private conservatories, with visibility on all
elevations; 13 no. car parking spaces and 46 no. resident and visitor bicycle Reason 2. The proposed
spaces to the east of the building; upgrades and alterations to boundary redevelopment and
treatments and access, including new multi-modal and pedestrian entrances onto extension of the existing
Jamestown Road; rooftop solar photo-voltaic array; landscaping and ground-level structure would result in
communal open spaces; site/public lighting; signage along the eastern facade; substandard residential
rainwater harvesting infrastructure; and all ancillary site development and servicing development
works.
3732/18 86 Jamestown Road, Inchicore, Dublin 8 Application Declared Invalid
Fastnet Planning Permission for development including change of use, partial demolition 06 September 2018
Properties and construction at 86 Jamestown Road, Inchicore, Dublin 8. The proposed
LLC development includes the change of use of the existing property at No. 86 from
industrial and warehousing to residential, partial demolition of the existing structure
and construction works resulting in an additional floor (increase from existing 2 no.
storeys to 3 no. storeys) and 23 no. apartment units (1 no. studio, 11 no. 1-bed, 7
no. 2-bed and 4 no. 3-bed). Permission is also sought for: 13 no. car parking
spaces and 46 no. resident and visitor cycles spaces to the front of the building;
upgrades to boundary treatments, including new multi-modal and pedestrian
entrances onto Jamestown Road; rooftop solar photo-voltaic array; landscaping;
ground-level and second-floor communal open spaces; public lighting; signage
along the eastern facade; rainwater harvesting infrastructure; and all ancillary site
development and servicing works.
3206/14 86 Jamestown Road, Inchicore, Dublin 8 Granted
Conversion and subdivision of a former industrial unit to 7 no. live work units and 19 January 2015
Tribeach alterations to existing commercial units. The proposed works to be carried out
(Dublin) Ltd. include:
• provision of a further storey and roof terraces along the eastern and western
facades above part of the main building;
• a second storey over a single storey element of the existing north end of the
building including a new access stair;
• partial demolition of structures along the eastern facade;
• alterations to the facades; signage along the eastern facade;
• provision of 15 no. designated car parking spaces;
rain water harvesting with water tanks and heat pumps on the southern roof, and
associated site works.
0078/97 86 Jamestown Road, Inchicore, Dublin 8 Granted
Construction of extension and ESB sub-station. 22 January 1997
Craftprint Ltd
Valuation Report Jamestown Road, Dublin 8. 21Ref No. / Description Decision
Applicant
4319/16 Units 1 & 2, Jamestown Business Park, 90 Jamestown Road, Inchicore, Granted
Dublin 8 22 March 2017
Tribeach
Dublin Ltd The development will consist of the use as an indoor market of Units 1 and 2
Jamestown Park, operating at weekends only, with public hours on Saturdays and
Sundays of 10am - 5pm both days, with trader activity an hour earlier and later
each day; provision of onsite parking, and 2 no. associated non-illuminated
signage boards on the north and east elevations (3 sq m and 5 sq m respectively),
for a period of five years. This use was previously granted temporary permission
under reg. ref. 3662/11.
3662/11 Units 1 & 2, Jamestown Business Park, Jamestown Road, Inchicore, Dublin 8 Granted
23 March 2012
Tribeach Ltd Temporary permission for a period of five years for the retention of the change of
use as an indoor market at Units 1 and 2 Jamestown Business Park, operating at
weekends only, with public hours on Saturdays and Sundays of 10am - 5pm both
days, with trader activity an hour earlier and later each day, provision of onsite car
parking, and retention of 2 no. associated non-illuminated signage boards on the
north and east elevations (3 sq m and 5 sq m respectively).
As noted previously, the client is understood to be in the process of amending a scheme design concept for
submission of a proposed Built to Rent (BTR) residential scheme to An Bord Pleanala under the SHD process. An
initial scheme design dated October 2019 to provide for 127 apartments and a creche is understood to form the
basis the current work on a revised scheme. Details of the revised proposal are not yet available.
Valuation Report Jamestown Road, Dublin 8. 223 MARKET
3.1 Economic Update
Ireland formally entered recession from the end of Q2, having recorded two consecutive quarters of decline in a
row. The first quarter saw a decline of -2.1%, which the second quarter showed a further decline of -5.71% in
GDP. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Ireland shrank 3% year-on-year in Q2 2020. It is the biggest fall
contraction since Q3 2009.
The global spread COVID-19 resulted in the introduction and escalation of extreme restrictions on movement and
economic activity. While these measures have been relaxed from full lockdowns, there are material restrictions
remaining in place, and anticipated localised or further periodic wider restrictions to come over the coming months.
The impact across a range of economic activity and the spectrum of measures has been dramatic, although official
records of the impact are subject to time lags in being recorded. Therefore, we would expect most of the economic
measures summarised below to remain subject to change and volatility over the coming months.
As well as the ongoing impact of COVID-19, the risks of a no-deal Brexit have re-emerged strongly as a concern in
the lead up to the October deadline for reaching a deal. The potential for a negative impact on the Irish and UK
economies from a no deal Brexit are material.
Capital investment slumped 67.5% and accounted for 38.9% of total domestic demand. Consumer spending went
down 22.1%, exports edged down 0.2% and imports sank 37.2%. Sectors focused on the domestic market
experienced significantly lower levels of economic activity namely construction (-38.3%) and distribution, transport,
hotels and restaurants (-30.3%). In contrast, growth continued in some of the more globalised sectors like industry
(+1.5%). Still, the multinational-dominated information and communication sector contracted by 2.3%. Year-on-
year, the economy plunged 3%.
GDP Annual Growth Rate in Ireland is expected to be -1.20% by the end of Q3 2020. An estimated GDP Annual
Growth Rate is to stand at 2.8% in 12 months time, 1.80% in 2021 and 3.60% in 2022.
Ireland Annualised GDP Growth Rate 1996 – Q2 2020
Valuation Report Jamestown Road, Dublin 8. 23Unemployment rate
Irish seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for September 2020 was 5.4% up from 5.2% in August. It was the
highest jobless rate since December of 2018 as the COVID-19 crisis has continued to have a significant impact on
the labour market.
The number of unemployed increased by 5,100 from the previous month to 126,200. The alternative COVID-19
adjusted unemployment rate, which includes persons in receipt of the COVID-19 Pandemic unemployment
Payment and considered as the upper bound for the true rate of unemployment, was 14.7%. Youth unemployment
rate, measuring job-seekers aged 15-24 years, went up to 18.9% from 17.5% in August, the highest since
November of 2015.
Unemployment Rate Ireland (1985 – September 2020)
The effective unemployment rate is increasing very sharply due to COVID-19, with hundreds of thousands of
people at least temporarily out of work during the lockdown period. It is unclear as to what the long-term effect will
be, but an exceptional spike in the numbers occurred in March and April as expected. According to the CSO the
COVID-19 crisis has continued to have a significant impact on the labour market in Ireland in July 2020. While the
standard measure of Monthly Unemployment was 5.0% in July 2020 (seasonally adjusted was 5.5%), a new
COVID-19 Adjusted Measure of Unemployment could indicate a rate as high as 16.7% if all claimants of the
Pandemic Unemployment Payment were classified as unemployed. However, on a more positive note, this
Adjusted Measure is down from 23.1% in June 2020.
Unemployment Rate in Ireland is expected to be 7.50% by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics
global macro models and analysts expectations and is projected to stand at 7.10% in 12 months’ time. In the long-
term, the Ireland Unemployment Rate is projected to trend around 6.80% in 2021 and 6.20% in 2022.
Inflation Rate (CPI)
Consumer Price Inflation annualised rate in Ireland was -1.2% in September 2020 following a 1 percent drop in the
previous month. It was the sharpest annual fall since 2010 and the sixth consecutive period of decline, suggesting
that domestic demand remained subdued amid the coronavirus crisis.
Valuation Report Jamestown Road, Dublin 8. 24Inflation is expected to be -1.00% by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models
and analysts’ expectations, and to stand at 1.20% in 12 months’ time. In the long-term, the Ireland Inflation Rate is
projected to trend around 1.10% in 2021 and 1.50% in 2022.
CPI 25 years to September 2020
Consumer Spending
Consumer Spending in Ireland decreased to €21,188 million in Q2 2020 from €26,360 million in Q1 2020.
Over recent years positive consumer sales and retails sales data have been evident for most sectors of the retail
economy, albeit that volume of sales has been increasing materially faster than value of sales, indicating that
shoppers are continuing to seek greater level of value. Covid-19 pandemic had a negative impact to the spending
trends to date. However, looking forward, Consumer Spending in Ireland is expected to stand at €21,781 million in
12 months time. In the long-term, the Ireland Consumer Spending is projected to trend around €26,982 million in
2021 and €27,953 million in 2022.
Valuation Report Jamestown Road, Dublin 8. 25Trend in Consumer Spending in Ireland 1995 to Q2 2020 (Figures on a Quarterly Basis)
We note that retail sales year on year increased by 9.10% in August 2020, compared to an increase of 9.2% in
July 2020 and -43.7% in April 2020 over the same month in the previous year.
Retail Sales Year on Year (5 years to February 2020)
Consumer Confidence
Consumer Confidence in Ireland increased to 60.7 in September from 58.9 points in August of 2020 and from a
drastic drop to 42.6 in April 2020. Consumer Confidence in Ireland is expected to be 55.10 by the end of Q3 2020.
It is estimated that Consumer Confidence in Ireland is to stand at 65.0 in 12 months time, around 67.0 in 2021 and
76.0 in 2022.
Valuation Report Jamestown Road, Dublin 8. 26Consumer Confidence Ireland – 1996 to September 2020
Government Bonds
Ireland 10-year Government Bonds Yield was -0.27% as of 19 October 2020. Historically, the Ireland Government
Bond 10Y reached an all-time high of 14.76% in January of 1985.
10 Year Irish Government Bond Rates 1984-2020
Valuation Report Jamestown Road, Dublin 8. 273.2 Development Land Market
COVID-19 has significantly reduced the level of activity in the Irish Development land market during 2020. The
volume and value of transactions is materially lower than in previous years, and while transactional evidence is
restricted, it is generally felt that values have decreased.
Over recent years the development land market recovered strongly in Dublin and the other main cities, particularly
Cork and Galway, although remains more subdued in smaller provincial towns, where viability remains
challenging.
According to Cushman and Wakefield, development land transactions in the main cities during 2019 amounted to
€1.2bn, a -16% decrease in value terms on 2018. Residential land is estimated to have accounted for 67.5% by
value. The number of transactions decreased by -38% to 125, of which 92 were residential. Dublin accounted for
over 80% by value and 60% by number of sites. Knight Frank estimate that the turnover in Dublin for the entire of
2019 will total in the order of €1.3bn, while Lisney project final turnover to hit €1.1bn compared to €1.45bn in 2018.
Forward funding deals re-emerged over recent years, although relatively few have actually been finalised to date.
The details of such deals are generally confidential, with limited reliable information available in the market, and
where information can be sourced the level at which the site value input is included can have restricted linkage to
market values. Forward sales of schemes have been more widespread, where purchasers of the end schemes
commit to a acquire in advance of completion, but do not actually make payments to fund the development the
scheme during construction. Such deals became a significant feature of residential development particularly, with
both PRS and social housing purchasers very active in committing to the acquisition of new schemes pre-
completion. Various office developments have also been pre-sold, mainly where pre-lets were in place, although
some without such as the Sorting Office scheme, and Exo (subject to a rental underwrite from the developer for up
to 2 years).
There were growing signs of increased caution in the development land market during 2019 and early 2030 (pre-
COVID) as residential end unit prices moderated and construction costs increased. Therefore, risks were
beginning to emerge in terms of values in this sector. We particularly note the following factors, which were
beginning to be factored into development land pricing (and consequently values):
• Stamp duty changed in October 2019 from 6% to 7.5%, which particularly impacts on commercial
development land (compound impact of decrease in net development values on residual site values)
• Escalation in construction costs, which is being exacerbated by the NZEB requirements
• Capacity constraints with contractors
• Moderating, and in cases decreasing, house prices
There was evidence emerging during late 2019 and early 2020 of development land prices moderating as these
factors combined with softened consumer and business sentiment that has been evident particularly in periods
where concerns as to the Brexit outcome have peaked.
In Quarters 1, 2 and 3 of 2020 transaction levels have been relatively low by comparison to recent years, as might
be expected given the issues arising from COVID-19.
The decision by NAMA to proceed with the sales process on the Irish Glass Bottle site in Ringsend through
COVID-19 was a positive indication of continued market desire to progress with large scale development
opportunities. It is understood that the Ronan Group, originally with Colony Capital as partners emerged as the
preferred bidders at second round in July, at price understood to be in the order €160m for an 80% interest in the
39 acre site, which is the subject of an SDZ allowing 3,000 residential units and 1 million sq ft of commercial
Valuation Report Jamestown Road, Dublin 8. 28development. The guide price was €120 million, and it is understood that the other second round bidders including
Hines, Ballymore and Quintain were closer to this level. It is reported that Colony Capital are no longer involved in
the consortium, and that Oaktree are now working with Ronan Group to compete the transaction. NAMA have
granted the group an extension until 18 December to complete. This transaction will form a very significant portion
of the overall value of development land transactions in 2020 if it proceeds.
According to Lisney, Q1 2020 saw a total of 14 land transactions in the Greater Dublin Area with a much reduced
overall level of €80m. 11 of these sales were for sites under €5m. Sales included the following:
• Sandyford, Dublin 18 – the 1.8 acre former Avid Technology site sold with planning permission for 820
student accommodation bed spaces for a reported €17m. This analyses at €9.4m per acre and €20,700
per bed space.
• Sandyford, Dublin 18 – the 6.6 acre Legionaries of Christ site sold thought TWM for a reported €23m or
€3.5m per acre.
• Glenageary, Co Dublin – a 0.67 acre site on Silchester Park with planning permission for 10 units was
purchased by a domestic builder for almost €2.8m or €280,000 a unit site.
In Q2 2020, Lisney indicate that there were 9 transactions in the GDA with a total consideration of €13.9m,
averaging just over €1.5m per transaction. The transactions were all sub €5m lot sizes, and included the following:
• Liffey Valley, Dublin 22 – Lot 1 (4.24 acres) and Lot 2 (1.78 acres) are zoned ‘major retail centre’ and
reportedly sold for €4.7m and €1.95m respectively. Generally, this analyses at €1.1m per acre.
• Beaumont, Dublin 9 – the 1.4 acre residential site is suitable for a high density scheme and sold of
approximately €4.75m (€3.4m per acre).
• Skerries, Co Dublin – a 15.4 acre site with zoning for residential (5.4 acres), high amenity (5 acres) and
open space (5 acres). It achieved a reported €2m for the entire.
• Navan, Co Meath – the former Spicers Bakery (1.1 acres) sold for €850,000 and is zoned for mixed-use.
According to CBRE there were 11 land sales completed between July and September 2020 with a combined value
totalling c.€64 million between them, which was a very significant increase on the previous quarter although the
overall volume of transactional activity in the year-to-date has been severely impacted by Covid-19 and the
economic backdrop. Over the year to end September 2020, the value of deals totalled c.€185 million, compared to
€767 million at the same point in 2019. Average quarterly transaction levels in the market over the last five years
has been c.€240 million per quarter.
From a review of development land transactions that closed in Q3 2020, we understand that there were around 12
sales, some of which were agreed or contracted in late 2019 or early 2020. The largest transaction included
• Harbour Point, Bray, which comprises the former Bray Golf Club, and Industrial Yarns sites of 53 acres
located in Bray town that were sold on behalf of NAMA to Ballymore in late 2019 for in excess of the
€27.5 million guide price.
• Magic Carpet Site in Cornelscourt, a 2.66 acre mixed use zoned site, sold for under the guide price of
€12 million.
• Oscar Traynor Road in Coolock, a 6.36 acre enterprise and employment zoned site sold for €4.3 million
The spread of the Covid 19 Pandemic to Europe and the US has become a very material factor in the Irish market
since the late part of Q1 2020, although it remains uncertain as to the depth of the impact on pricing, it will
certainly postpone most if not all ongoing transactions, and means that new transactions may be materially
delayed. Pricing of development is also expected to be impacted, once market activity returns, as the uncertainty
on end values, market appetite, and funding availability will particularly impact on development land.
Valuation Report Jamestown Road, Dublin 8. 29We have considered the following land sales, which include some transactions pre-COVID, and some that are on
the market:
Property Area Zoning / Price Timing Comments
acre Planning (€/ acre)
Steeven’s Lane, Dublin 8 0.6 Z4 – District Quoting For Sale Brownfield site located beside Guinness Brewery
Centre €8,000,000 in Q4 and close to Heuston Station. Adjacent to the Red
2020 LUAS line, just off James’ Street. Feasibility study
prepared for the development of a 124 unit
(€13,333,333)
apartment scheme or 266 bedroom hotel.
€64,500 per For sale Through C&W
potential
apartment
site
George Cooke Industrial 3.25 Z6 – Enterprise Sale Agreed For sale Located off the east side of Bluebell Lane, close
Estate, Bluebell, Dublin &Employment at just under since mid to Kylemore Road and Naas Road.
12 €3,500,000 2019
Comprises a mix of industrial, office and
residential buildings totalling 5,014 sq m located
(€1,075,000) on a predominately rectangular shaped site.
€70 psf on Some of the buildings are let producing €54,500.
existing Messy tenancies, with verbal agreements and
buildings short term agreement
For sale though Savills since mid 2019, with initial
quoting price of €2.75m. Was agreed pored
COVID at €3.5 million, which fell through.
Subsequent sale agreed in the summer that also
fell through. Recently agreed at just under €3.5m,
but not yet signed (as at end of October 2020).
Interest from investors and some developers as a
possible medium to long ter redevelopment
opportunity
Site in Belgard Road / 2.2 Town Centre Excess of Sale Industrial facility with development potential for
Cookstown area of €4,500,000 Agreed in PRS or BTR scheme. Understood to have
Tallaght, Dublin 24 Q2 2020 potential for over 200 BTR units (subject to
(€2,05m + planning).
per acre)
Colliers – Agreed at excess of quoting price.
Glebe House, St. Agnes 1.5 Residential €1,800,000 Closed Comprises The Glebe House, a substantial
Road, Crumlin, Dublin 12 (€1,200,000) Q1 2020 detached protected structure that is divided into
apartments, all of which are vacant. Behind the
(Agreed house there are 12 workshop buildings, six of
in Q2 which are occupied by tenants on informal lease
2019) terms.
Plans to seek planning permission for a social
housing scheme of over 100 apartments.
Colliers – achieved above quoting price of €1.4m.
Parnell Avenue, Harolds 1.1 Residential €3,385,000 Closed Brownfield site in Harold’s Cross, Feasibility for
Cross, Dublin 6W Q1 2019 the construction of 15 houses and 28 apartments.
(€3,077,000) Currently occupied by 2 detached commercial
buildings (20,183 sq ft), 12 lock up garages car
park.
JLL
72 Beaumont Road, 1.4 Residential €4,100,000 Closed Situated on Beaumont Road, Dublin 9, and briefly
Valuation Report Jamestown Road, Dublin 8. 30Property Area Zoning / Price Timing Comments
acre Planning (€/ acre)
Beaumont, Dublin 9 (€2,930,000) Q2 2020 comprises an existing mixture of large retail shop
with car park, substantial residential bungalow
and grassed area all of which is zoned residential.
Offers an outstanding opportunity for a full
residential redevelopment of high density nature.
Lisney – below quoting of €4.75m
Former Cadburys Pitch & 6.36 Z6 Enterprise €4,300,000 Closed Enterprise & Employment zoned site, formerly
Putt, Oscar Traynor & Employment Q3 2020 Cadbury’s pitch & putt, located close to Malahide
Road, Coolock, Dublin 17 (€676,000) Road, and adjacent to an Aldi store in a mixed
commercial and residential area.
Went to best bids in Nov 2019.
Sold through Lisney. Achieved above quoting
price of €3.5m
232 North Circular Road 0.16 Residential €1,200,000 Closed Prominently located brownfield development site
& 85 Grangegorman Q3 2020 at the junction of the North Circular Road and
Upper, Dublin 7 (€7,500,000) Grangegorman Upper immediately adjoining the
new TU Dublin campus. The property benefits
Full Planning Permission for a retail supermarket
extending to 232 sq.m and 10 apartments,
comprising of 8 no.2 bed apartments and 2 no. 1
bed apartments.
Sold through Lisney at above quoting price of
€1.1m.
Annamoe Road, Cabra, 0.34 Residential Contracted at Sale Approx. 0.34 acres with FPP for 4 no. 3 bed
Dublin 7 €600,000 Agreed in houses. Formed part of a larger site acquired by
Q2 2020 Lidl for development of anew store at 12-52 Old
(€1,765,000) Cabra Road.
€150,000 per Potential for a small apartment scheme of 10-12
permitted units
house
Sale agreed in Q2 202 through BNP. Quoting
price was €600,000
Cherry Orchard Industrial 1.9 REGEN €2,200,000 Closed in Approx. 1.9 acre site with 2 no. existing industrial
Estate, Ballyfermot Q1 2020 buildings of 3,644 sq m fronting Kennelsfort Road
Dublin 10 (€1,160,000) at the Palmertown end of the industrial estate,
close to SueprValu.
Site is zoned REGEN, which allows for residential
development under the SDCC development plan.
Purchaser envisages seeking planning for a PRS
residential scheme, expecting approx 100 to 200
units.
Acquired by BNP for a client.
26, 42 & 43 Cherry 2.2 Enterprise & €2,400,000 Sale Located at the main entrance to Cherry Orchard
Orchard Industrial Estate, Employment Agreed in Industrial State. Existing older generation
Ballyfermot Dublin 10 (€1,090,000) Q3 2020 industrial buildings totalling 4,297 sq m (46,252 sq
ft) on 2.2 acre Enterprise and Employment zoned
€52 per sq ft lands on the corner of Adjacent to lands that have
Valuation Report Jamestown Road, Dublin 8. 31You can also read
