VOLCANIC HAZARDS ASSESSMENT OF SAVAI'I, SAMOA - NET
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VOLCANIC HAZARDS ASSESSMENT OF SAVAI’I, SAMOA Paul Taylor’ and Lameko Talia August 1999 SOPAC Technical Report 295 ’Australian Volcanological Investigations Apia Observatory, Samoa Funding for this Project was provided by the United Nations Development Programme through the South Pacific Disaster Reduction Programme
[3] CONTENTS SUMMARY.................................................................................................................................... 5 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS............................................................................................................. 6 INTRODUCTION.......................................................................................................................... 7 THE GEOLOGY OF SAVAI’I......................................................................................................... 7 AGE RELATIONSHIPS OF PREHISTORIC VOLCANIC ACTIVITY.............................................8 RECENTVOLCANICACTIVITY......................................_...........................................................10 FEATURES OF VOLCANIC ACTIVITY ON SAVAI’I................................................................... 10 STRUCTURAL INFLUENCES ON RECENT VOLCANIC ACTIVITY......................................... 14 FREQUENCY AND DISTRIBUTION OF VOLCANISM THROUGH GEOLOGICAL TIME......... 14 VOLCANIC HAZARDS ON SAVAI’I........................................................................................................ 16 VULNERABLE ELEMENTS ON SAVAI’I..................................................................................... 19 CONCLUSIONS AND THE RISK OF FUTURE VOLCANIC ACTIVITY ON SAVAI’I.................. 22 RECOMMENDATIONS.................................................................................................................. 23 REFERENCES......................................................................................................................... 24 APPENDIX Volcanic Hazards Map of Savai’i, Samoa Introduction........................................................................................................................... 25 ExplanatoryNotes.................................................................................................................. 25 Precautionary Notes...............................................................................................................26 [SOPAC Technical Report 295 -Taylor &Talia]
[4] LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1 Locality Maps.......................................................................................................................8 2 Simplified Geological Map...................................................................................................8 . Topography.............................................................................................................. 9 3 Savai'i 1. 4 1760 Lava Flows................................................................................................................ 11 5 1902 Flows and Vents....................................................................................................... 11 6 1905 -11 Flows........................................................ 11 7 Features of the 1905-11 Eruption................................................................................ 12-13 8 Features of Savai'i Volcanism............................................................................................ 13 9 The Ologogo Fault System................................................................................................ 14 10 Temporal Distribution of Volcanic Cones and Lavas on Savai'......................................... 15 11 Vulnerable Elements..........................................................................................................20 LIST OF TABLES Table 1 Volcanic Stratigraphy of .,. Savai'i........................................................................... 9 .,. 2 Historic Eruptions onSavai'i.............................................................................................. 12 3 Frequency and Distribution of Volcanism on Savai'i.......................................................... 16 4 Summary of Volcanic Hazards on Savai'i.......................................................................... 17 [SOPAC Technical Report 295-Taylor &Talia]
[5] SUMMARY The island of Savai’i is the largest and westernmost of the Samoan archipelago and is the home for 50,000 Samoans living in villages located around the coast. Savai’i is a mature volcanic environment, but exhibits the features of recent “monogenetic” volcanism. Geological studies conducted on Savai’i suggest that volcanism has been occurring, more or less continuously, since at least Pliocene times. It was suggested that two volcanic episodes have occurred during the development of Savai’i. The initial episode, the ”shield-building phase”, produced the basal lava shield during Pliocene to early-Pleistocene times. Following a period of relative quiescence during the early to mid-Pleistocene the “post-erosional phase” has produced a sequence of lavas and pyroclastics that overly the marked erosional boundary. This phase of volcanism has continued during recent times. The most recent eruption occurred during 1905-11 and resulted in the destruction of large areas of arable land and a number of villages located along the northeast coast. A volcanic hazard assessment conducted by the authors has concluded that activity is likely to continue. Future eruptions will be effusive (lava-forming), explosive (tephra-forming) or a combi- nation of both. Due to the lack of comprehensive chronological data for eruptions prior to the mid-1700's it is difficult to forecast when future eruptions will occur. Furthermore, because of the “monogenetic” nature of the volcanism it is also difficult to forecast where future vents will form. A preliminary volcanic hazards map has been constructed using the spatial density of prehis- toric and recent vents. The hazard zones shown thus define the relative probability of a vent erupting in that zone. However, due to the possibility that a vent may erupt anywhere on Savai’i, the entire island must therefore be considered vulnerable to the hazards associated with future activity. The likely hazards include: lava flows, pyroclastic flows/surges, lahars, tephra falls, volcanic gases, ballistic ejecta, lightning and volcanic edifice collapse. The recommendations put forward in the report provide a firm basis for planning for the future. The priority activities include the development of a comprehensive chronological database of prehistoric activity, the development of mitigation programs aimed at reducing the impact of future activity and public awareness programs to increase the general level of knowledge of all levels within the community. [SOPAC Technical Report 295 -Taylor & Talia]
[6] ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This report would not have been possible without the assistance of the Assistant Director of the Apia Oservatory, Ausetalia Titimaea, and his staff who provided support during the project, and allowed the junior author of this report to take part in fieldwork on Savai’i. Warren Jopling, of Safua Tours in Savai’i provided much information during our many discus- sions about the geology of Savai’i. Many of the localities could not have been visited without his advice. David Kear of Ohope, New Zealand is thanked for his assistance on the available 14C dates for the Puapua Volcanics. Ian all of the Australian National University in Canberra is also thanked for his valuable insights on K/Ar dating of the older rocks of Savai’i. Thoughtful reviews by Shane Cronin, of Massey University and Russell Blong of the Natural Hazards Research Centre at Macquarie University helped to improve this report. Russell Howorth, Program Manager with SOPAC is also thanked for co-ordinating the project and making many arrangements with the Government of Samoa. Funding for this project was provided by the United Nations Development Program through the South Pacific Disaster Reduction Program. [SOPAC Technical Report 295 -Taylor &Talia]
[7] INTRODUCTION This report on the volcanic hazard assessment of Savai’i was initiated as a recommendation put forward at the ”Workshop on Volcanic Hazards and Emergency Management in the South Pacific”, held in Port Vila, Vanuatu from 24-28 February 1997 (Howorth and Elaise, 1997). The workshop identified eight volcanic areas within the South Pacific region that require immediate attention. One of these was Savai’i, Samoa, specifically the recent vent of Matavanu' located on the northeast slopes of Savai’i. Matavanu erupted almost continuously from August 1905 to November 1911 destroying several villages, large areas of arable land as well as extensive areas of the lagoon and fringing/barrier reef along the northeast coast. The activity at Matavanu was not the only activity to occur on Savai’i in recent times, Mauga Afi(1760 est.) and Mauga Mu (October - November 1902) have also erupted. Savai’i is the westernmost and largest island of Samoa. It supports a population of approxi- mately 50,000, living mainly in villages along the coastal regions. The economy of Savai’i, as part of Samoa, is based on subsistence agriculture, fishing and tourism. Hence, future destruc- tion of arable land or reef systems by volcanic activity, could have a serious effect on the economy of Savai’i and Samoa. This report will refer to both published information on the geology of Savai’i and observations made during fieldwork conducted between 2 - 17 September 1998 in an attempt to assess the volcanic hazards on Savai’i. The resulting volcanic hazards map (Appendix 1), can be used to develop operational support plans for the vulnerable regions of Savai’i. THE GEOLOGY OF SAVAI'I The island of Savai’i is the westernmost and largest island of the Samoan group (Figure 1). Covering an area of some 1700 km, Savai’i is composed primarily of the products that suggest a long period of volcanism, dating back to at least the Pliocene. The majority of volcanism that produced the many lava flows cropping out on Savai’i was concentrated along the Tuasivi Ridge. The Tuasivi Ridge runs in an E-W direction through the centre of the island. Few detailed geological studies of Savai’i have been undertaken. The most recent geological mapping of Samoa (including Savai’i mapped at 1:100,000 and 1:400,000 scales) was con- ducted by Kear and Wood (1959). Although their report was comprehensive in terms of the general geological features, little information was provided on the volcanic processes and associated hazards that have occurred during the recent past. The major geological units on Savai’i are shown in Figure 2 and the volcanic stratigraphy is summarised in Table 1. The oldest unit that outcrops on Savai’i is the Fagaloa Volcanics (the “shield-building’’ phase) exposed in the Vaipouli River (on the north coast), the valleys that form the headwaters for the Vanu River and the Alia-ole Gao'a (southern Tuasivi Ridge). This unit is separated from the younger volcanics (the “post-erosional’’ phase) by a marked erosional boundary. Although Kear and Wood conducted extensive fieldwork on Savai’i, many of the geological boundaries were determined by aerial photograph interpretation or based on the development of vegetation or the degree of erosion. Hence, due to the lack of exposure, many of the bounda- ries are only approximate. Keating (1992) in a summary of previous work suggested that the concentration of volcanic cones along the Tuasivi Ridge infers the presence of five rift zones. However, we consider an alternate orientation of rift zones (Figure 3). It should be noted that many of the vents on the lower slopes may not be directly associated with one of the rift zones. This interpretation differs All village names and names referring to geographical and geological features will be given in italics. [SOPAC Technical Report 295 -Taylor & Talia]
[8] from Keating, in that the inferred rift zones are curved and merge around a central point that coincides with the highest point on Savai’i, the cone of Mt Silisili. This interpretation is consistent with the orientation of rift zones and summit caldera complexes on other oceanic volcanoes, eg. Kilauea and Mauna Loa on Hawaii. AGE RELATIONSHIPS OF PREHISTORIC VOLCANIC ACTIVITY Few reliable dates are available for rocks that comprise the volcanic units of Savai’i. Palaeomagnetic and radiometric dates were summarised by Keating (1985 and 1987). The oldest rocks exposed on Savai’i (the Fagaloa Volcanics) are likely to be up to 2.5 Ma.
[9] Fagaloa Volcanics Interbedded pahoehoe and aa basaltic lava flows Pliocene to Early interbedded with scoria and tephra beds. Most flows Pleistocene are porphyritic (olivine) and include a variety of xenoliths including peridotite. Flows are deeply weath- ered with thick soils developed on the surface of the units.
[10] In a series of K/Ar dates on Savaii rocks, McDougall (1986) suggested that none were older than 0.4 Ma. McDougall (pers. comm. 1998) further suggested that ages of those samples from the units mapped as the Mulifanua Volcanics were generally from 0.2 to
[12] Table 2.. Historic eruptions on Savai'i. episode of collapse the vents coalesced to form a single elongate crater 250 x 300 m. Lava fountains to a height of 200-300 m were reported. Voluminous lava flows (10' m3)moved toward the NE, reaching to coast on a 8 km wide front. The flows were observed to be in excess of 8 m thick at several localities. Many of the flows, particularly those produced during the later stages of the eruption, flowed from the vent to the coast in lava tubes. Several villages, (10' m') covered an estimated area of 190 km on the NW flanks of the island with flows reaching the NW coast on a 10 km wide front. The village of Aopo was reportedly surrounded and partially de- stroyed by the lava flows. A number of other villages and extensive areas of arable land along the NW coast were destroyed. No fatalities are known.
[14] STRUCTURAL INFLUENCES ON RECENT VOLCANIC ACTIVITY Kear and Wood (1959) mapped numerous normal faults along the Tuasivi Ridge in Western Savai'i. They suggested that many of the faults were coincident with, and formed fissures, along which were erupted many cones and lava flows of the Middle to Late-Holocene Puapua and MulifanuaVolcanics. Apart from the Tuasivi ridge faults, the remaining faults on Savai'i are not well defined. The prominent fault system present on the northern side of the Tuasivi Ridge (here known as the Ologogo Fault system) extends approximately 50 kms from near Safaua village to near Sasina village on the north coast (Figure 9). The fault scarp varies from 10-20 metres high near its western end to in excess of 150 metres at altitudes of 1000 metres. Several other major longitu- dinal topographic features occur east of the village of Manase on the north coast and east of the village of Paia (Figure. 9). Vertical relief of these features exceeds 20-30 metres. These fea- tures are interpreted as the eastern end of the Ologogo fault system. It is suggested that this fault zone is analogous to the Pali fault systems that are characteristic to the flanks of Kilauea volcano in Hawaii. Historic eruption vents (i.e. the Aopo Volcanics) formed in close proximity to the southern and eastern part of Ologogo fault system. In addition, many lava flows of the Puapua and Aopo Volcanics flow northward of this fault system. It is also important to note that, few recent vents occur between the Ologogo fault system and the north coast. No recent movements along the Ologogo fault system have been reported. Since past move- ments have formed extensive scarps that dissect both the Mulifanua and the older Salani Volcanics, we suggest that the majority of movement occurred during the early-Holocene. FREQUENCY AND DISTRIBUTION OF VOLCANISM THROUGH GEOLOGICAL TIME The vents and volcanic cones active during each of the major geologic units (after Kear and Wood, 1959) are shown in a series of maps (Figure. 10) and described in Table 3. Several apparent trends in the frequency and distribution of volcanism through geological time are noted: i) Volcanic activity during the Middle to Late-Pleistocene (the Salani Volcanics) involved both explosive and effusive activity in the eastern half of Savai'i, along the East and North Rift zones. ii) Volcanic activity during the Late-Pleistocene (the Mulifanua Volcanics) also involved both explosive and effusive activity, but was mostly centred in the western half of Savai'i along the West and South rift zones, apart from minor activity at the eastern end of the east rift zone.
iii) Both explosive and effusive activity continued during the Middle to Late-Holocene (the Puapua Volcanics, but was spread more randomly along the East-West Rift zone. iv) Activity during historic times (the Aopo Volcanics) occurred along the West and North Rift zones and may have been associated with the Ologogo fault system. v) The frequency of eruptive events appears to have increased rapidly through time. The calcu- lations of eruption frequencies, however, are limited by the poor age constraints on the volcanic periods (except the historical period). In addition, for the older units, evidence of many events is probably buried by younger product thus reducing the apparent eruptive frequency. However, despite these issues - there remains a very strong trend of increasing eruptive frequency that may continue to future activity on the island. [SOPAC Technical Report 295 -Taylor &Talia]
[16] Table 3: Frequency and distribution*of volcanism through geological time on Savai'i. Distribution of Vents * Many vents that may have been active during the older phases of activity (eg. those formed during the Salani phase) may have been covered by the products of the more recent phases, VOLCANIC HAZARDS ON SAVAI’I The most common volcanic hazards likely to occur during future eruptions on Savai’i are lava flows, volcanic gases and aerosols, tephra falls and volcanic earthquakes. Although not re- ported during recent activity, other hazards that are likely include; ballistic ejecta, lightning, pyroclastic surges, lahars and volcanic edifice collapse. Table 4 summarises the volcanic haz- ards that may occur during future eruptive activity on Savai’i, probable warning periods, likeli- hood to cause damage, injury or death, areas affected and probable locations. Each of the hazards are outlined in the following section. Lava flows are by far the most common volcanic hazard on Savai’i. Both pahoehoe and aa flows are likely to occur and they may flow long distances from vents along the Tuasivi Ridge toward the coast. Recent eruptions indicate the likely magnitude and effects of lava flows. The 1760 eruption aa lavas destroyed several villages on the northwest coast. Flows travelled 10-15 km from the vent and crossed the coast on an 8 km front. The 1905-11 predominantly pahoehoe flows travelled 15 km, destroying five villages on the northeast coast. Both the 1760 and 1905-11 flows destroyed large tracts of plantation land and large expanses of the fringing reef. Prehistoric lava flows on Savai’i have also travelled more than 10 km from their vents and often reached the sea. Lava flow hazards include inundation and burning of everything in their paths, generation of widespread fires, volcanic gas emission (where they enter the sea), and local explosions (where flows encounter standing water). The hazard for lava flows is greatest along stream valleys and canyons and in coastal regions of Savai’i where streams valleys cross the coast. On the hazard map (Appendix 1), likely flow paths of lava flows are shown by the red arrows. Volcanic gases (including in general order of abundance; H2O CO2,, SO2, H,2 S, HCI, NH,, HF and other toxic components) are commonly emitted during eruptive activity. Volcanic gases interact with moist atmospheres to almost immediately produce aerosols (very fine droplets) of [SOPAC Technical Report 295 -Taylor &Talia]
[17] Table Probable Location Edifice Minutes to High to High to Very large Northwest section of the island; collapse hours extreme extreme tsunamis may be formed depend- ing on scale of collapse that may affect coastal areas of Savai’i and surrounding islands
[18] easterly and north-easterly. .....in this direction the destruction of the trees was complete, and to nearly as far as Olonono, a distance of2 1/2 miles, their they were bleached skel- etons were all that remained...... I heard from credible sources that the cocoa-nut palms had been killed as far as 5 miles to the west of the crater."(p634) Anderson (1910) has also described the effects of the Ua Sami (acid rain) formed by the inter- action of the lava and seawater in coastal localities. Anderson states: "At Matautu, 2 miles west of the lava, the damage was due to the Ua Sami formed by the action of the lava on the sea-water, which was considered even more poisonous than that discharged from the crater. Many cocoa-nut palms had been damaged and some had died, but most had recovered; while several breadfruit trees were killed entirely, and some recovered only with the loss of their upper branches."(p635) This damage caused at coastal areas was a result of lava haze (Laze), aerosols of sulphuric acid and hydrochloric acid produced by the reaction of seawater and hot lava. The hazard from volcanic gases and aerosols is greatest near the vent and in downwind areas, as well as an additional hazard from lava flows where they enter the sea, Due to the prevailing east to southeast winds, the greatest volcanic gas and aerosol hazards are likely to be to the west or northwest of the vent that forms. Volcanic Ash (Tephra) falls: Tephra or volcanic ash falls probably accompany many Savai’i eruptions. Tephra is ejected and carried high above the vent, before being dispersed by the wind and deposited in downwind areas. Significant tephra falls were not recorded during the historic eruptions. Tephra falls of >10cm thickness commonly causes collapse of building roofs, destruction of crops and occasionally injury to people and animals that are not sheltered from the heaviest of falls (e.g Blong, 1984). Fine tephra may contaminate food supplies and water, as well as caus- ing damage to electrical and mechanical equipment. The greatest hazard from tephra falls is similar to that for volcanic gases, ie in downwind and near-vent areas. The risk from tephra falls is greatest in Tephra Zone 1 on the hazard map (Appendix 1), while a moderate degree of risk from tephra falls occurs within Tephra Zone 2. Ballistic ejecta - are hot, usually large fragments of rock debris ejected explosively from an erupting vent. This process probably occurs in most future eruptions on Savai’i. The ejecta may either be solid (scoria or lava blocks), or partially fluid fragments of lava (bombs). Fragments are normally blasted within a few hundred metres radially around the cone. Impact of ballistic ejecta will destroy most structures and will probably be fatal to any life within their range. The greatest hazard from ballistic ejecta is confined to within a few hundred metres of vent locations. Lightning is a secondary hazard that may occur during explosive eruptions. Lightning is caused by the electrostatic effects within an column. These do not strike the ground as frequently as normal meteorologic lightning, but still may cause fires and damage buildings and crops. The greatest hazard from volcanic-induced lightning is likely to be in the areas that are also subject to the greatest volcanic ash fall hazard. Pyroclastic surges are generated by the explosive interaction of rising magma and water. These radial blasts of rock debris, steam and gas travel up to 3 km from the vent at velocities of up to 300 km/hr. These magma-water eruptions (hydrovolcanic) are most likely io occur within a lagoon or shallow near-coastal area, but may also occur from lakes and swamps. Deposits produced in this manner are exposed along the coast at the base of Tafua cone. [SOPAC Technical Report 295 -Taylor&Talia]
[19] The hazards of pyroclastic surges are probably confined to within 1 km of the vent under most circumstances, but larger blasts may affect areas of up to 3 km radially. Surges damage all crops and structures in their paths, and are highly hazardous to people and animals within their range. Coastal villages in the immediate area of an active cone would be at greatest hazard from pyroclastic surges. Volcanic earthquakes commonly precede and accompany eruptions regardless of the charac- ter of the activity. Although violent earthquakes were reported to precede and accompany the 1902 eruption (Jensen, 1907; Thomson, 1921), no damage that could be directly related to the events was reported. Jensen (1907) reported that the initial activity at Matavanu that occurred between 9-10.00 pm on 4 August 1905 was accompanied by an earthquake that: ".....was strongly felt only near the point of eruption, but nevertheless registeredby the seismo- graphat Apia. "(p656-657) These two reports indicate that earthquakes accompanying activity on Savai’i, probably small in magnitude and not likely to cause substantial damage. Hazards associated with earthquakes are probably greatest in near vent areas. Lahars or volcanic mudflows have not been reported during historical activity of Savai’i. How- ever, intense tropical rainfall coinciding or soon following future activity, could potentially gener- ate lahars. Lahars travel rapidly (>30km/hr), contain large amounts of sediment, and sweep away everything in their paths. The greatest hazards from lahars are within stream valleys radiating from areas of eruptive activity (particularly areas of volcanic ash fall) and sweep away everything in their paths. The greatest hazards from lahars are within stream valleys radiating from areas of eruptive activity (represented by red arrows on the hazard map in Appendix 1). It should be noted that a number of villages are located on or within a short distance of streams that are present on Savai’i, and as such would be at risk from the effects of lahars. Volcanic edifice collapse: The products that comprise volcanic islands are inherently unstable, with alternate layers of lava and porous breccias dominating. A number of volcanoes in the Southwest Pacific may have experienced large-scale collapses (e.g. Johnson, 1987; Taylor 1998). Edifice collapse may or may not relate to eruptive activity and commonly occurs along major zones of structural weakness in the cone (eg. major fault zones). Events such as earth- quakes or intrusion of magma into the edifice can act as triggers to collapse. Large magnitude collapses into the sea are capable of generating regionally destructive tsunamis. On Savai’i, the Ologogo fault system is a major zone of potential weakness on the northwest slopes (see the hazard map in Appendix 1), where movement on a large scale could occur. Although movements along the system have not been reported during historic times, it should still be treated as a site of potential slope failure. Such an event will have impacts that reach far from Savai'i itself. VULNERABLE ELEMENTS ON SAVAI’I It is important to consider land-use patterns when considering the vulnerability of an area to any hazard/s On Savai’i, forest cover, population patterns, land tenure, social infrastructure, agricul- tural activities and fishing activities are summarised by Ward and Ashcroft (1998). It is there- fore, pertinent to briefly summarise the land-use patterns on Savai’i. For the purpose of this report the land-use categories (vulnerable elements) are Village and commercial activities, [SOPAC Technical Report 295 -Taylor &Talia]
[20] Agricultural activities, Bushland, and Fishing activities. All of the functions within the outlined land-use categories are vulnerable to the affects of volcanic activity to a varying degree depend- ing on the location of the vent. Figure 10 summarises the location of many of the vulnerable elements on Savai’i. i) Village and Commercial Activities: include all regions of the island devoted to primarily to residential, commercial, administration, tourist and transport functions. In general terms the majority of these activities are located within several kilometres of the coast. a) Villages have been developed along most of the coast of Savai’i. The major population centres are located along the southeast and east coast between Satupaitea and Puapua villages, along the north coast between Saleaula and Sasina villages and in the northwest including villages in and around Asau, Viasala and Falealupo-uta. In general terms, village and commercial activities are concentrated in an area within about 1 to 1.5 km of the coast- line. Several other village areas are also located along the south and southwest coast. Several other villages including Aopo, Letui, Patamea, Japueleele and Vaolia are located up to 8 km inland of the coastline. All the population centres on Savai’i are susceptible to the effects of volcanic activity, high- lighting that at least 50,000 Savai'ians are at risk. During activity the flow hazards (lava, pyroclastic or mud flows) may destroy dwellings and other buildings in their path. Heavy tephra falls in downwind localities (western and northwestern parts of the island) may cause the collapse of buildings, particularly those with low pitch roofs. Tephra and volcanic gases may have a direct effect on individuals by causing respiratory problems or in extreme cases, death may result. Volcanic earthquakes more also result in damage to buildings, although the areas would be localised. The overall impacts on the population will depend on the type of activity and the location of the vents. b) The administrative centre of Salelologa, is located on the southeastern coast, and is where most government and other services are located. Other government services such as the police office and the immigration office are located at Tuasivi. The only well-equipped hospital on Savai’i is also located at Tuasivi If Salelologa or Tuasivi are affected by an eruption, most of the government services would be disrupted. Should an eruption destroy or severely damage the hospital it would effec- tively leave Savai’i without sufficient medical facilities to cope with expected casualties. Educational facilities, both government and non-government sponsored, are located in most villages and a college is located in Tuasivi. Depending on the location and type of activity schools and the pupils could be affected but because of the numerous schools around Savai’i, students could be relocated until the eruption ceases.
[21] c) A telecommunications centre and an electric power plant are located along the main coast road west of Saleleloga. Telecommunications and power supply functions are highly susceptible to volcanic activity. Although lava flows may disrupt both phone and power transmission by destroying the lines, tephra may cause considerable disruption due to the shorting-out of the electrical systems. It is also known that tephra can interfere with radio signals, which may cause disruption to radio-telephones. d) Water is an important commodity for an island like Savai’i. Water is drawn from permanent streams or from springs that are located around the coast. To ensure that water is supplied to all localities, an extensive water reticulation system has been developed. water is pumped gravity fed to villages by a network of pipes that commonly parallel the main coast road. Water supply systems are particularly susceptible to the effects of volcanic activity both through the destruction of the supply lines and contamination of storage facilities. As much of the water is distributed by a system of pipelines, their destruction by lava flows and earth- quakes would have a considerable impact on village life. Both chemical and physical con- tamination may result from only small tephra falls on storage facilities. An increase in the acidity of the water or contamination by elevated levels of elements including flourine, may render the entire supply unsuitable for use. Tephra may also cause blockages in filters and pipes resulting in disruptions. Supplies drawn from bores and springs may be less suscepti- ble and these may provide alternate supplies, but it should be noted that changes in the chemistry of the waters may occur during or following the activity. e) A wharf and other anchorage facilities that service most of the island have been estab- lished at Salelologa. Regular daily ferry services link Savai’i with Upolu. Other less developed anchorage facilities are also present at Asau, on the northwest coast. Port facilities are critical to the economy of Savai’i as all the produce is exported through Salelologa and Asau. Closure or disruption to either port during an eruption will thus have long-lasting effects on the economy of Savai’i. f) Airports are located near Salelologa and Asau. Regular services from and to Upolu are scheduled once or twice daily. Although both airports are at risk from lava flows, a far more significant threat is from tephra and volcanic gases that may accompany an eruption. Due to the dominant E to SE winds the airport at Salelologa is exposed to a low degree of risk from tephra and gas. The domestic air route to and the airport at Asau, however, are subject to a relatively high degree of risk. Significant damage and loss of power may occur when planes fly through tephra. Falls of tephra on the runways may also cause disruption to services. It should also be noted that a number of international air routes traverse airspace in the region of Savai’i that may be affected by tephra plumes that reach altitudes of 8-10 km. Costly diversions may be neces- sary to avoid the tephra hazards. g) An extensive system of roads has been developed to serve as the major lifeline on Savai’i. A sealed road connects all populated areas around the coast. An extensive network of un- sealed roads and tracks connect inland villages and plantations to the main coast road. The majority of villages are serviced by a bus service on at least a daily basis. Outlets for fuel and other automotive services are located in Salelologa, Avao and Asau. The road around the coast of Savai’i is vulnerable to the effects of future activity, particularly lava flows. Should an eruption result in the closure of a section of the main coast road, only minor disruption would be experienced. Closure of the inland roads would have a consider- able impact on access to the isolated villages and plantation lands. [SOPAC Technical Report 295 -Taylor &Talia]
[22] h) Tourism is an important industry for Savai’i. A number of hotels, guest houses and ac- commodation facilities have been established around the island. Larger hotels are concen- trated along the southeast coast near Salelologa and along the north coast near Manase. Other guesthouses have been established in a number of other villages along the north- western and southwestern coast. The occurrence of an eruption could have a significant impact on tourism on Savai’i by reducing the number of visitors because of the possible risk to life. However, due to the spectacular nature of the phenomena, an eruption could also have a positive effect on tourism due to man’s curiosity. ii) Agricultural Activities: are the regions, devoted primarily to the production foodcrops, coconuts, cocoa, bananas, the raising of cattle and other commercial activities such as timber. Agricultural activities dominate the majority of the landscape of Savai’i. Plantation activities are undertaken on the lower slopes of the Tuasivi Ridge, below altitudes of about 500 metres above sea level. Most crops are vulnerable to damage by volcanic activity and since the economy of Savai’i is based largely on agriculture there would be wide ranging and long lasting effects. Be- sides destruction by lava flows, foliage is susceptible to both tephra and volcanic gases. Falls of tephra may either destroy or severely damage the foliage causing no or poor yields. Volcanic gases, in particular aerosols, that adhere to the grasses and the foliage of other crops may lead to retarded growth or poisoning of animals or humans that consume them. iii) Fishing activities: for both domestic and commercial purposes are conducted within the lagoons, on the reefs and at offshore locations adjacent to the reef faces. Past eruptions that have produced lava flows, have destroyed extensive areas in the coastal zone, particularly the valuable fishing grounds associated with the reefs. Future eruptions, particularly those producing lava, could be expected to have a similar effect both on the coastal environment and the livelihood of the Savai'ians. iv) Bushland: are those regions not generally used for any of the above activities, and includes the remainder of the interior of Savai’i, that in the most part is inaccessible. Several large areas of this bushland have already been designated as areas having significant conserva- tion value but because of the probable location of future vents may be affected by activity. CONCLUSIONS AND THE RISK FROM FUTURE VOLCANIC ACTIVITY ON SAVAI’I Although the island of Savai’i is a mature volcanic environment, it exhibits the features of recent monogenetic volcanism and as such it is reasonable to conclude that activity will continue in the future. Activity may be effusive, explosive or a combination of both. From the apparent random location of the vents formed during past periods of activity, it is difficult to forecast the location of future activity. However, considering the location of historic eruptions and the youngest prehistoric events may occur along either the West or North Rift zones. Due to the lack of comprehensive chronological data for eruptions prior to the mid-1700s it is difficult to forecast when future activity may occur. The periodicity of historic activity suggests [SOPAC Technical Report 295 -Taylor&Talia]
[23] that eruptions have an approximate recurrence period of about 150-200 years. For Savai’i that would suggest a moderate-high possibility of an eruption within the next 100 years. Due to the unknown location of vents during future periods of activity, the entire island is consid- ered vulnerable to the effects of future activity. If future activity is effusive, the movement of lava flows will be controlled by the local topography, with the flows taking a route of least resistance to the lower flanks, i.e. along river channels and canyons. It is thus suggested that coastal areas along river channels and downslope of highland canyons are more vulnerable than other locali- ties. Should future activity be explosive and produce tephra, localities downwind of the vents, i.e. to west and northwest, would be vulnerable to the effects of tephra fail. The Ologogo fault system may be a possible zone of weakness to engender large scale col- lapses along the northwest part of Savai’i. A further investigation of this structure is required to evaluate the risk of future activity of this type. RECOMMENDATIONS Following the completion of this volcanic hazards assessment of Savai’i, it is recommended that: 1. A program of volcano monitoring should be established. Since recent activity was accompa- nied by periods of seismic activity, a seismic station would be an appropriate technique. This station, once established, should have the capability of continuous transmission of data to a recording station located at the Apia Observatory. 2. Officers of the Apia Observatory should be provided with appropriate training in volcanologi- cal techniques to ensure that data collected during the monitoring program can be effec- tively analysed. This should enable trends to be monitored and realistic forecasts of activity to be made. 3. A detailed study of the volcanic geology of Savai’i should be undertaken to develop an understanding of the volcanic processes that have occurred, and to develop a comprehen- sive chronology of the eruptive activity. The study should include the use of both absolute and relative dating techniques. 4. An operational support plan should be developed for Savai’i. This plan should include: a. the likely hazards that will occur, b. preventive and protective measures that may be appropriate, c. the organisational infrastructure necessary to implement and maintain the plan, d. hazard zones, alerts and warnings, e. operational support plans to be followed during a future volcanic emergency, and f. a series of eruption scenarios to indicate the likely effects Of future activity. 5. In-country training and workshop programs should be developed to inform and educate government and business agencies involved in the development and planning process for Savai’i. 6. Public awareness programs should be developed to promote an understanding of volcanic activity on Savai’i and what should be done during an emergency. [SOPAC Technical Report 295 -Taylor &Talia]
[24] REFERENCES Anderson, T. (1910) The Volcano of Matavanu in Savai'i. QuarterlyJournalof the Geological society of London. vol.66, pp621-639. Blong, R.J. (1984) Volcanic Hazards, a Sourcebookof the Effects of Eruptions. Academic Press, Sydney. Grant-Taylor, T.L. Rafter, T.A. (1962) New Zealand Radiocarbon Age Measurements - 5. Newzealand JournalofGeology and Geophysics.vol.5,p331-359. Howorth, R, Elaise, A. ( I 997) Workshop on Volcanic Hazards and Emergency Management in the South Pacific. SOPAC MiscellaneousReport, No.245. Jensen, H.I. (1 907) The Geology of Samoa, and the eruptions in Savai'i. Proceedings of the Linnean Society of NSW. vol1.31, pt.4, pp641-672. Johnson, R.W. (1987) Large-scale Volcanic Cone Collapse: The 1888 Slope Failure of Ritter Volcano and other Examples from Papua New Guinea. Bulletin of Volcanology. vol.49, p669-679. Kear, D., Wood, B.L. (1959) The Geology and Hydrology of Western Samoa. Newzealand Geological SurveyBulletin, No.63. Kear, D., Wood, B.L. (1962) Structure, Landforms and Hydrology. In J.W. Fox (Ed), Western Samoa; Land Life andAgriculture in TropicalPolynesia. Whitecombe and Tombs, Christchurch. Kear, D. (1967) A Summary of the Geology of Western Samoa. Newzealand Journalof Geology and Geophysics,vol.10,pp1200-1201. Keating, B.H. (1985) Paleomagnetic Studies of the Samoa Islands: Results from the Islands of Tutuila and Savaii. In Brocher, T. (Ed), Geological Investigations of the Melanesian Borderland, Circum-Pacific Council for Energy and Mineral Resources - Earth Science Series, Vol.3, ppl87-199. Keating, B.H. (1987) Summary of the Radiometric Ages from the Pacific. Inter-governmental Oceano- graphic Commission, Technical Series Report, No.32. Keating, B.H. (1992) The Geology of the Samoan Islands. In Keating, B.H., Bolton, B.R. (Eds), Geology and Offshore Mineral Resources of the Central Pacific Basin, Circum-Pacific Council for Energy and Mineral Resources -Earth Science Series, Vol.14,ppl27-178. McDougall, I. (1986) Samoan Island Chain - A Hot Spot Trace. International Volcanological Congress, Auckland, Hamilton, Rotorua New Zealand, Abstracts volume, p333. Richard, J.J. (1962) Kermadec Tonga and Samoa. Catalogue of Active Volcanoes of the World. pt.13, pp30-38 Taylor, P.W. (1998) A Review of Some Processes Occurring Along the Tofua Volcanic Arc, Kingdom of Tonga. In K.A.Crook, P.Rodda and R.Howorth (Eds), Abstracts of Papers Presented at the STAR Session 1998, SOPAC Miscellaneous Report, No.245, p37. Thomson, J.A. (1 921) The Geology of Western Samoa. The New zealand Journal of Science and Tech- nologyV01.4, No.2,p49-66. Ward, R.G., Ashcroft, P. (1998) Samoa: Mapping the Diversify Institute of Pacific Studies, Suva. [SOPAC Technical Report 295-Taylor & Talia]
[25] APPENDIX 1 Volcanic Hazards Map of Savai’i, Samoa Introduction Savai’i is technically a “monogenetic” volcanic field and as such each new eruption site may occur at any location on the island. Future eruptions may occur at or near old vents or at an entirely new site. Due to the monogenetic character of volcanism it is difficult to predict the location of future eruptions. The volcanic hazards map has been constructed using the spatial density of past eruptive vents, with the hazard zones representing the relative probability for the outbreak of a new vent. Explanatory Notes Three zones delimit increasing risk from the flow and near vent hazards i.e. lava flows, lahars, pyroclastic surges/flows, explosions, ballistic ejecta and hydrovolcanic activity. Zone A (Red zone): includes the summit and the upper parts of the North and West Rift zones and is where there is the greatest density of recent and prehistoric vents. This zone has the highest probability of future vents erupting and is at greatest risk from near-vent hazards. Only a small portion of this zone will be affected by a single eruption. Zone B (Orange zone): includes the remainder on the North and West Rift zones and the East and South Rift zones. This zone has a moderate probability of future vents erupting and is at moderate risk from near-vent hazards. Only a small portion of this zone will be affected by a single eruption, The red arrows are the most likely routes of flow hazards from vents that may erupt in Zones A and B. Coastal regions of the island have a moderate to high risk of the effects of the flow hazards. Zone C (White zone): includes the remainder of the island not part of Zones A and B. This zone is subject to the lowest risk of near-vent hazards but is still subject to a moderate to high risk from flow hazards. Hydrovolcanic activity may occur in the near-shore and off-shore areas that form part of this zone. Two zones delimit increasing risk from tephra fall originating from vents that may erupt in Zones A and B. Tephra Zone 1: is the area bounded by the black dashed line. This zone is subject to a high probability of tephra falls of > 20 cm from vents that may erupt within Zone A. Only a small portion of this zone will be affected by a single eruption. Tephra Zone 2 is the area bounded by the grey dotted/dashed line. This zone is subject to a high prob- ability of tephra falls of > 20 cm from vents that erupt within Zone B and tephra falls of > 10 cm from vents that erupt within Zone A. Only a small portion of this zone will be affected by a single eruption. The vent location and the prevailing wind direction will control the size and location of the area affected. Volcanic edifice collapse: The part of Savai’i that is likely to be affected by this hazard is the area to the northwest of the Ologogo fault system (represented by the heavy broken line). Should this type of hazard occur, the likely direction of movement is shown by the heavy blue arrows. Regional destructive tsunamis may be generated during edifice collapse events. [SOPAC Technical Report 295 -Taylor &Talia]
[26] Precautionary Notes Due to the lack of reliable age data for the volcanic units cropping out on Savai'i, this map should be only considered as preliminary. Due to the scale of the map the boundaries of the hazard/probability zones are only approximate. The map is suitable for general disaster management, response and public awareness. However, for detailed land-use planning, building site investigationsand engineering projects, further detailed site investigations are required. [SOPAC Technical Report 295 - Taylor &Talia]
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