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West Africa BI M NTHLY INSIGHT - CDD e-Library
Social media and Elections in Ghana
and Nigeria: Expanding Citizens' Participation

West Africa
                                                                         Not For Sale

   www.westafricainsight.org | March Edition 2014   BI MONTHLY INSIGHT

              Centre for                                Post-Arab Spring: ECOWAS and
              Democracy and                             the Promotion of Democratic Values
              Development
                                                        in West Africa
West Africa BI M NTHLY INSIGHT - CDD e-Library
WEST AFRICA INSIGHT
 March Edition 2014

 West Africa Insight:
 Monitoring to Influence the Future
We are happy to be back after a three-month hiatus. This edition marks the beginning of another phase of West Africa Insight. It
is Center for Democracy and Development's main tool of undertaking trends monitoring and horizon scanning in the                         West Africa Insight Team
organization's choice jurisdiction, West Africa.
                                                                                                                                         Idayat Hassan
One of the major strategies adopted by this title is stimulating debates and discourses on the socio-economic and political              Editor in Chief
situation in Africa, but West Africa in particular. More than a century after the Berlin Conference, the colonial past continues to
haunt the region. The forceful amalgamation and compartmentalisation of peoples of different socio-economic and cultural
realities into nation- states defined by borders to which they had no consent of linger on. Moreover, the peoples' failure to            Project Officers
surmount the challenges deriving from the situation continues to stifle development across the region. CDD's Senior Fellow, Dr.          Terfa Hemen
Dayo Kusa's analysis explores these issues, with a focus on two West African nations, Cote d'Ivoire, and Nigeria. This helps to          Liberty Oseni Audu
bring into proper focus the contexts in both the Francophone and Anglophone sections of West Africa. Though these two nations
possess enormous human and economic resources, their respective growths have been hampered by some socio- cultural
inclinations and factors in their respective political histories. At the moment, Nigeria is engulfed in crises traceable to these        Supported by
factors, namely the irrepressible insurgence in the North; the multiplying crises in the Niger Delta, including continually
renewed threats from militants as well as the never ending conflicts between nomadic pastoralists and farmers in the central
region. All of these will combine with the intrigues of the coming elections. Such a situation leaves to imagination what the
future holds for black Africa's biggest nation.

While democracy has returned to Cote d'Ivoire, the challenges of a nation divided along political, ethnic lines remain. The
question of who is truly an Ivorian (Ivoirité) still plagues this once-thriving West African nation whose economy is now
struggling to meet the needs of an ever growing population. With regards to the elections scheduled for 2015, one wonders if the
colonial past and the peoples' failure to ignore their differences will not, once again, result in tragic retrogressions.

On account of the aforestated, this edition attempts some projections of what may happen if West African citizens decide to
emulate the Arab nations of Tunisia and Egypt. Considering the apparent disregard for the social contract presumed to exist              All rights reserved. No part of the
between citizens and their governments, can one guess the possibility of a West African Harmattan as some parallel to the Arab           West Africa Insight may be
                                                                                                                                         reproduced in any form or by any
Spring? What role could social media play in the ever increasing influence of information and communication technologies?
                                                                                                                                         electronic or mechanical means
Despite efforts towards instilling good democratic practice, how influential have ECOWAS and its instruments been in the                 including information storage and
practice of democracy in the region? Can they help curtail an Arab Spring-like revolution as governments continuously fail to            retrieval systems without
honour social contract?                                                                                                                  permission in writing from the
                                                                                                                                         publisher.
Also in focus in this edition is the recent claim by the famous economist, Jim O'Neil, that Nigeria is one of the MINT countries
(Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey). We therefore explore the possibility of Nigeria truly integrating into the promising            © Centre for Democracy and
MINT bloc. This will be determined by a variety of variables including how the country will use the great human capital and the          Development 2014
huge natural resources it possesses. Despite the challenges of poor governance, corruption, and weak infrastructures the country
faces, the possibility of becoming a world power is not beyond Africa's most populous nation, provided that the country gets her
acts together in the coming years. Although, a small oasis in the desert it may seem, the recent emergence of the duo of
Eseoghene Odiete, a Fashion designer, and Eric Obuh, a musician cum philanthropist in the Google Africa Connected
competition presents some inspiration for instance.

Development requires good democratic structures, which in turn can only be attained if nations across the region are able to
conduct credible, free, and fair elections. This is one feat that has been elusive, thereby impeding democracy in the region. A
look at the progress made in the electoral process shows the growing influence of information and technology, especially
because they open up more space for participation by the populace in the social media. The Ghanaian and Nigerian examples
illustrate well the role of social media in improving the electoral processes in each of the two countries' respective last elections.
It will not be out place therefore to explore the potentials to open further space for citizens in the upcoming 2015 elections in West
Africa.

As West Africa searches for solutions to her plethora of problems, our intention is to bring to the fore the issues, narratives, and
analyses that can contribute to her success.

Idayat Hassan

Director, CDD

                                                                                                                                                              2
West Africa BI M NTHLY INSIGHT - CDD e-Library
Jibrin Ibrahim and Audu Liberty Oseni

                                                                                                       Our country, O'Neil had
                                                                                                   announced, would be part of
                                                                                                       the next four developing
                                                                                                         economies to make a
                                                                                                                 breakthrough

                                                                                                    They are Mexico, Indonesia,
                                                                                                    Nigeria, and Turkey (MINT)

The Nigerian Government received the good news from the famous                equitable economic growth and social cohesion, and preventing the
                                                                              country from reaping the potential benefits of its fast growing youth.
economist Jim O'Neil with elation. Our country, O'Neil had announced,
would be part of the next four developing economies to make a                 The Nigerian situation is scary and strange. According to a United
breakthrough. They are Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Turkey. The            Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)
MINT countries by his reckoning are likely to start catching up with the      report, as of 1999, Nigeria had 6.9 million out-of-school children. The
leading economies of the world within the next decade. Nigeria has            2013 UNESCO report however shows that the number of out-of-school
always believed it should have been the country to join the BRIC              children in Nigeria has risen to 10.5 million. What is even more
countries of Brazil, Russia, India and China in 2010 rather than its rival,   frightening is the rapidly declining quality of the school system. Today,
South Africa. Mr O'Neil who coined the grouping BRIC has now                  44% of Nigerian students who have completed primary school cannot
consoled us by placing Nigeria on the path to a MINT future.                  read a complete sentence. Between 2007 and 2010, the number of
                                                                              Nigerian students enrolled in foreign universities rose by 71%, from
There is no doubt that the MINT countries do have the potential and
                                                                              22,712 to 38,852. In 2013, 70% of students who sat for the West African
ability to reach great heights. Nigeria has a population of 170 million
                                                                              Examinations Council WAEC final secondary school examination
and the country's GDP stands at 318.5 billion USD whereas the per
                                                                              failed. These figures tell the story of the failure of the capacity building
capita income is estimated at $1,831. We depend more on hydrocarbon
                                                                              ability of the Nigerian educational system.
exports than Indonesia and Mexico. Nigeria, at the moment, is
confronted with outstanding challenges of nationhood. The state               All the countries that have succeeded in promoting rapid economic
institutions are weak and the political elite is kleptomaniac and engaged     development have done so on the back of a constantly improving
in mega looting of the country's national resources. There is significant     educational system. The 10.5 million out-of-school children—and
infrastructural decay due to inadequate investments. One element of           unfortunately the numbers are growing rapidly— will grow into adults
infrastructure, power generation has received massive investments over        that will not be able to add significant value to economic activities. They
the past decade, but there has been negligible increase in output. The        will be limited to unskilled jobs with low wages if they are lucky, but
rule of law is largely compromised and the state has withdrawn from           most likely they will remain part of the vast and growing army of
social provisioning. The rate of unemployment is at least 25%, while the      unemployed persons. One main implication of such a situation is that
incidence of poverty is about 65% of the population. Nigeria therefore        Nigeria will find it extremely difficult to compete with countries that
needs to make a huge effort to achieve the targets being expected of the      have competent and well-trained human resources in the area of
MINT countries.                                                               science, technology, and efficient bureaucracy. Another fundamental
                                                                              implication is that, in the future, Nigeria's workforce will suffer a
The MINT projection is that by 2050 Nigeria will be outperforming the
                                                                              tremendous skills gap. More worrisome is that even as the Nigerian
United States of America. This is a very bold projection. For this target
                                                                              skilled workforce is being depleted due to brain drain, the state and the
to be met, a huge effort needs to be made by the country. Education plays
                                                                              society are not grooming their replacement. Another dimension to this
a fundamental role in building a nation's economy; it trains the work
                                                                              crisis is the growing Islamic insurgency in the country, popularly called
force that will pilot the economy. Currently, many young Nigerians,
                                                                              Boko Haram, which is attacking schools and killing schoolchildren,
especially those from poor families are graduating from universities,
                                                                              thus leading to their mass exodus from schools in the country's North
polytechnics, technical schools, etc., without the required skills needed
                                                                              East. Recently, the Federal Government was forced to close its colleges
to drive the country's economy. These education failures are not only
                                                                              in Borno, Yobe and Adamawa states for fear of attack by Boko Haram,
thwarting young people's hopes, but they are also jeopardizing
                                                                              thus further escalating the number of uneducated Nigerians.

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West Africa BI M NTHLY INSIGHT - CDD e-Library
Another issue that will determine Nigeria's ability to meet the MINT
projection is infrastructure such as electricity, road, housing, water etc.
Nigeria's population of 170 million persons uses the same amount of
electricity that 1.5 million persons use in the United Kingdom. Many
Nigerians depend solely on small private generators as their only
source of electricity. The cost of running industries in the country is
prohibitive and companies invest huge amounts of money to generate
electricity privately. Public electricity supply has been declining. For
example, as of December 2013, there was a decline of electricity supply
from 4,517 megawatts to 3,300 currently. For Nigeria's MINT
aspiration to become an emerging economic power, the question of a
massive increase in electricity generation and distribution is
fundamental.

For Nigeria to become one of the leading world economies in the year
                                                                              has been more on the policy framework rather than developing
2050, it must bring back the discourse and strategy on industrialization.
                                                                              practical solutions in solving the housing deficit. Key to the housing
From the 1960s to the 1980s, dominant discourses in Nigeria and other
                                                                              challenge in Nigeria is the astronomical increase in land prices and
West African states centred on industrialization and growing the
                                                                              property; poor Nigerians who live below one dollar a day can neither
manufacturing economy. From 1980s and 1990s, during the structural
                                                                              afford houses nor land to build their houses on. The partnership with the
adjustment programmes, Nigeria and West African states at large left
                                                                              private sector the government sees as option to making housing
industrialization discourses and forayed into privatization and
                                                                              available has never played a key role in housing delivery for the urban
commercialization of state owned enterprises, leading to the collapse of
                                                                              poor. Nigeria has also adopted mortgage financing as a means of
industries and the manufacturing economy.
                                                                              solving her housing deficit. Unfortunately, the greatest challenge to this
Nigeria must have the ambition to put in place processes and                  approach is that the poor whom it is targeting cannot afford to access the
procedures that will chart ways for her becoming an industrialized            mortgage, either because of the high interest rates, or conditions (such
nation before the year 2050. Currently, Nigeria is placing her efforts on     as collateral) the loans set as prerequisites.
the search for foreign investors and privatization of state owned
                                                                              The ability of Nigeria emerging as a major player in the world economy
enterprise making little or no effort in encouraging the development of
                                                                              depends on how well the country tackles it current rising
local industries. Unfortunately, private sector engagement in Nigeria is
                                                                              unemployment. The 2011 Performance Monitoring Report on
usually an operation through which political leaders and their
                                                                              Government's Ministries, Departments, and Agencies reveals that
surrogates siphon state resources for themselves. Nigeria's and global
                                                                              unemployment rate in Nigeria was 21.1% in 2010, but increased to
experience shows that privatization in itself cannot transform an
                                                                              23.9% in 2011. The report also showed that unemployment was
economy. The state and its institutions must play their role in leading
                                                                              topmost in rural areas at 25.6% compared to urban areas, which have
the process. The Nigerian state must have a clear view of what
                                                                              17% on average. As of May 2013, the World Bank Nigeria Economic
development is and must identify variables that have the potential to
                                                                              Report shows that the unemployment rate in Nigeria rose from “12% of
shape the future and determine what its future programme becomes.
                                                                              the working population in 2006 to 24% in 2011. In a similar way, in
The truth is that you cannot create jobs; end poverty; and have a strong
                                                                              June 2013, the Honorary International Investors Council (HIIC)
economic base without industrialization.
                                                                              expressed concern on the high rise of unemployment and the high
As Nigeria envision its future of becoming one of the world's leading         growth of poor skilled workforce in Nigeria. The council asked Nigeria
economy by the year 2050, housing provision for her citizens has              to enhance its basic education system so that the capacity of the
continued to be a major challenge. The country is witnessing a rapid          country's workforce will improve. It is also the opinion of Nigeria's
urbanisation process, and one major challenge it faces is handling the        Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister for the Economy, Dr.
urbanisation process. In Nigeria, government does not consider                Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala: “each year, about 1.8 million young Nigerians
housing development as a fundamental sector for national                      enter into our labour market and we need to ensure that the economy
development. Therefore government intervention in housing provision           provides jobs for them.”

                                                                              The high level of poverty prevalent in the country corroborates well the
                                                                              high level of unemployment in Nigeria. The National Bureau of
               Another issue that will                                        Statistics report shows that 69% of Nigerians live below the poverty
                                                                              line. Between 2010 and 2012, the percentage of Nigerians living below
        determine Nigeria's ability to                                        the poverty line grew to 67% according to the World Bank. For over a
                                                                              decade, Nigeria has had economic growth that is yet to be translated
         meet the MINT projection is                                          into job creation and human development. The country cannot be a
                                                                              leading world economy without providing jobs and reducing poverty.
     infrastructure such as electricity,                                      Of course, government cannot provide all the needed jobs, but it has the
                                                                              responsibility to create a conducive atmosphere for the private sector to
            road, housing, water etc.                                         thrive and in turn create jobs.

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West Africa BI M NTHLY INSIGHT - CDD e-Library
understand that to achieve greatness, political will and strong
                                                                                commitment is required. Development will not happen overnight; it
                                                                                needs carefully thought-out developmental programmes. In addition,
                                                                                the development process must take on board civil society and
                                                                                encourage people's participation in the process. In this regard, civil
                                                                                society must be encouraged and enabled to hold the state to be
                                                                                accountable to the people. The state must invest reasonably on
                                                                                education, with particular focus on improving the quality of basic
                                                                                education but also developing the research capacity of tertiary
                                                                                institutions. The growth of science and technology is necessary if
                                                                                economic transformation is to occur. Furthermore, to have a strong
                                                                                economic base, Nigeria must tackle the challenges confronting the
                                                                                informal sector. The sector suffers from insufficient access to credit,
                                                                                lack of electricity supply, heavy taxation and so on. Statistics from the
Even as Nigeria envisions being among the MINT countries by 2050,
                                                                                Ministry of Labour and Productivity shows that the informal sector
she makes little or no effort to tap into her Demographic Dividend. The
                                                                                provides about 60% of Nigeria's GDP. Like in other developing nations,
country seems less concerned on developing her youth who are the
                                                                                the informal sector is fundamental to job creation, and government
engine room of economic dynamism; it doesn't seem to care much about
                                                                                ought to take the sector very seriously. Policies such as
what they want or need; and tends to downplay their importance in
                                                                                entrepreneurship development; international financial assistance;
economic growth. Most young people are disillusioned and are not
                                                                                credit provision through microfinance banks, among others, tailored
certain of their future. There is a risk that disaffected youth might
                                                                                towards promoting and advancing the informal sector, must go beyond
translate their frustrated energy into activities that will threaten the
                                                                                pronouncements and be translated into concrete plans of action. The
stability and security of the country.
                                                                                role of the informal sector in economic growth cannot be contested
The rising spate of youth-led protests across Africa is a demonstration         globally, therefore, the Nigerian state must promote and support the
of their discontent. Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya are indications of what the      informal sector via efficient macroeconomic policies aimed at boosting
youth could do when they have no jobs and when they build up political          the sector's performance.
and socio-economic grievances. Most of the African youth do not
                                                                                In conclusion, one can add that mega-corruption is a major clog on the
believe in the will and commitment of their political leaders to solve
                                                                                wheel of Nigeria's development. It is imperative that the country
their problems. They believe that the political system is very unfair,
                                                                                improves its transparency and accountability mechanisms so that
very corrupt, and aimed at creating greater inequality. The society has
                                                                                resources for development do not continue to disappear into private
become very religious, but the obvious fact is that Nigeria and Africa at
                                                                                pockets. In addition, the country must make necessary efforts to address
large cannot use miracles or magic to solve the problems posed by the
                                                                                the political instability it faces, arising from Boko Haram insurgency,
demographic challenge. The solution is either to create jobs or to face
                                                                                and the subsequent destruction of the economy and the society in the
anger and restlessness from the youth. If the Nigerian state does not do
                                                                                North East. It is also necessary for the country to reduce its dependency
more to empower the youth, there is a real risk of revolutionary change,
                                                                                on the exportation of petroleum. The diversification of the economy
and the new traditions seen in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya could be re-
                                                                                must happen if the MINT ambition is to be met. Nigeria's emergence as
enacted. If that happens, it is likely that the entire continent will
                                                                                a leading world economy is possible but it will depend on how
experience an African Spring. Therefore, the assurance that Nigeria will
                                                                                efficiently the country could address the challenges identified above.
still exist in 2050 is itself a function of what the state does to secure the
survival of the country.
                                                                                         In addition, the country must
Having Nigeria as a member of the MINT countries gives lots of hope
and aspirations, however this prospect can only be envisaged when a                 make necessary efforts to address
development consensus emerges from the state politics and
governance, which is necessary to start the process of making Nigeria a                 the political instability it faces,
developmental state that acts proactively to transform the economy and
the society. Yes, government propaganda may posit that Nigeria's                            arising from Boko Haram
achievements qualify the country as a MINT member, but real action is
necessary to realize our ambitions. Although Nigeria has the potential                insurgency, and the subsequent
of becoming a leading world economy by the year 2050, factors that
will make her realize this ambition are not given adequate attention. The             destruction of the economy and
country must begin to act urgently in the arenas of human capital
development, job creation, poverty reduction, infrastructure,                        the society in the North East. It is
industrialization. This would be the basis for a 'minted' future.
                                                                                     also necessary for the country to
For Nigeria to transform her economy, the economic growth model
ought to be replaced with a new development paradigm that approaches                    reduce its dependency on the
development holistically rather than the present jobless economic
growth. Nigeria in setting her development benchmarks has to                                 exportation of petroleum
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West Africa BI M NTHLY INSIGHT - CDD e-Library
SOCIAL MEDIA AND ELECTIONS IN GHANA AND
        NIGERIA: EXPANDING CITIZENS' PARTICIPATION
                                                                                                                                        Terfa Hemen

The internet has changed every facet of life today; it is actually difficult   independence of the electoral management bodies is constantly in
                                                                               doubt. Consequently, people's confidence with respect to the electoral
to remember how the world was without it. Over the past couple of
                                                                               process erodes, and election results are often contested, which in most
decades, there have been breath-taking advances in communication
                                                                               cases brings about violence; and in earlier years, it was a good reason
technologies and in their application. A few short years ago no one could
                                                                               for the military taking over power from the civilians in the guise of
have foreseen the explosive growth of Facebook and Twitter. What is
                                                                               sustaining political stability in the affected the countries.
more, these kinds of innovations seem to be continuing at an
accelerating rate. In recent years the practise of democracy has also          Over the years, the control of the electoral process by often-funded
been enmeshed in this change drawing a contrast to what previously             election management bodies—with chairs frequently appointed by the
obtained.                                                                      President— became a worrisome concern, especially with regard to the
                                                                               announcing of elections results. The actions of the Chair of the Nigeria
The practice of democratic governance in West Africa has so far failed
                                                                               Independent Elections Commission (INEC), Maurice Iwu, and the
to transform into dividends of democracy yearned for by the citizenry of
                                                                               manner with which he handled the 2007 elections, particularly the
West African nations. At the centre of this, is the failure of most West
                                                                               announcing of the results led many in the public sphere to believe that
African nations to conduct elections that meet the aspirations of the
                                                                               he was indeed working for the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP).
people. The resurgence of liberal democracy in the region, in the early
                                                                               The objectivity of the media during the process has more often than not
1990s after decades of authoritarian rule in mono-party dominated
                                                                               been in doubt. In most West African countries, state run media are
states, gave hope to the different peoples of West Africa. Between 1990
                                                                               firmly under the control of ruling parties, which actually control most of
and 1997, about 42 countries across the continent held multiparty
                                                                               the media activities. As for the private run media, they can, in some
elections, showing a reversal from the past. Years down the line, the
                                                                               cases, be subjective in their reportage of the electoral process,
region is still plagued by poverty, poor infrastructure, corruption, and
                                                                               depending on what informs their bias.
more worrisome, by fear of what is today referred to as democratic
reversals due to leaders' authoritarian tendencies. Senegal's then             Until a few years ago the scenario described above dominated the
President, Abdoulaye Wade, and his intention in 2012 to impose his son,        region. The revolution in information and communication technology
Nigeria's ex-President Obasanjo and his drive for a third term; President
Blaise Compaore's current political manoeuvres to amend article 37 of
Burkina Faso's Constitution to remain in power, Yahya Jammeh                                The internet has changed
authoritarianism in the Gambia, these examples bring to the fore such a
concern.                                                                                 every facet of life today; it is
As already noted, elections in West African countries have largely failed               actually difficult to remember
to live up to people's expectations mostly because the legal and
institutional frameworks that guide their conduct have never really                     how the world was without it.
worked. Governments in power often control the electoral process; the

                                                                                                                                           6
however changed the situation. It completely redefined the rules of
engagement. The emergence and development of information                                 The democratic values of social
technology has led to the creation of an electronic public sphere, made
possible not only by the use of internet for the conduction of electronic                 media mean that anyone from
polls, but also by the citizens' access capability to any kind of political
information concerning the local, national, and international processes                    around the world can engage
and procedures. Moreover, the creation and operation of chat rooms for
politic themes and real-time communication provides the ability of                              with an event happening
consolidating the necessary communication among citizens. Modern
technology annihilates the geographical distance, thereby giving                                  anywhere in the world
electorates a chance to meet regardless of where they live or work. This
sphere favoured the emergence of social media and the breakdown of                       regardless of their governments'
most barriers to communication. It is within this sphere that West
Africa's citizenry is engaging the electoral process in a manner hitherto                view of the event, provided that
never experienced.
                                                                                                 the proper access exists
The democratic values of social media mean that anyone from around
the world can engage with an event happening anywhere in the world                In August of 2012, a few months to the general elections, Ghana had a
regardless of their governments' view of the event, provided that the             total of 1, 367, 820 Facebook active users. Further examination of the
proper access exists. Social media's attributes of immediacy,                     data revealed that, during that period, 32% of those users were aged
accessibility, real time acquisition and exchange of information, easy            between 25 and 31, while another 41% was between the age of 18 and
usage of interface, and interactivity based on the evolving technology            24 years. Mobile phone penetration in the period stood at 88%, with a
advances in mobile phone and tablet technology have given power to a              total of about 21,265,706 active mobile phone lines. Other platforms
hyper active youth that is getting more and more involved, on a daily             like Twitter and YouTube had significant numbers as well. They
basis, in the governance process, including the electoral process.                influenced the way the electoral process manifested.
Dependence on traditional media platforms is gradually being
overtaken by social media. The nature of the electoral process in Ghana           Even before the actual voting day, social media had started playing a
and Nigeria are good illustrations of how social media are expanding              significant role. Building on the background laid by the Ghana
citizens' involvement in elections.                                               Electoral Commission with respect to the bio-metric registration of
                                                                                  voters, technology became a significant part of the election. Owing to
                                                                                  initial fears and the scepticism on the part of citizens as regards the use
Ghana                                                                             of bio-metrics for voter registration, the online platform Ghana Decides
The democratic process in Ghana has been hailed as one the best on the            embarked on an intensive campaign to acquaint Ghanaians to the
African continent in the recent past. An assessment report on                     process. The platform employed all her channels including, Facebook,
democratic governance in Ghana by the United States Agency for                    Twitter, Flickr and YouTube. The twitter hashtags, #iRegistered and
International Development (USAID):                                                #GhanaDecides created by Ghana Decides to enhance participation of
                                                                                  the electorate opened the space for more interactive discussion and
“rated Ghana highly on most of the basic measures of democracy, including         general participation, especially among youths. By the end of the
protection of fundamental civil liberties and human rights. Over the past two     exercise, a total of 14.5 million voters were registered, while over 10,
 decades, the country has been successful in holding free and fair elections,
                                                                                  000 fraudulent efforts to register were curtailed. Even the verification of
   decreasing poverty, and moving toward the achievement of many of the
                                                                                  registered voters was done through SMS, which made the verification
        Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). These are significant
accomplishments. Where Ghanaian democracy has been less successful is in          process easy and very convenient. It is a strategy that can be adopted by
    the nature and scope of the participation of most political actors in the     other nations in the region heading towards elections. The Flickr
 country's governance processes and institutions beyond elections. Effective      accounts, for instance, placed pictures of young Ghanaians, especially
  participation in the making and implementation of public policy has been        those voting for the first time, to encourage their peers to follow suit.
 limited to a small number of political elites who succeeded in capturing the     Another trend emerged during the pre-election period, in which
presidency, albeit through fairly competitive elections, along with the control   candidates initiated the use of Facebook as a platform for campaigns.
of the country's resources, which the constitution places under the control of
                                                                                  An obvious example is Dr. Paa Kwesi Nduom of the Progressive
                            the executive branch”.
                                                                                  People's Party who, with more than 10, 555 followers on Facebook on
Until the general elections in 2012, the conduct and participation in the         7th April 2012, requested that his followers participate in an online chat
elections were basically along traditional lines with control of the              with him, which was an opportunity to engage them on a one-one basis
process by the electoral commission under the Electoral Commission                while giving them the chance to ask questions and make comments.
Act of 1993 (Act 451). The commission had total control over the                  Who would have thought about this a decade ago? The presidential
process, from voters' registration to the announcing of the results. While        debates were covered live on YouTube and accessed by many Ghanaian
the electoral commission still enjoys the control over certain aspects of         citizens at home and abroad as well.
the process like voters' registration, the same cannot be said regarding
                                                                                  On Election Day, the Social Media Tracking Centre (SMTC) was
the election results. The internet and the social media platforms like
                                                                                  deployed to monitor the election in real time. Earlier in 2011, the
Facebook and Twitter have redefined the rules of engagement.
                                                                                  technology was successfully used in the general elections in Nigeria.

         7
Using the Aggie social media tracking software developed at Georgia           communication technology has redefined the landscape. Governments
Tech, it identified social media platforms like Twitter, Facebook,            no longer have total control over the information; citizens, via the
Google+, and a host of individual blogs were streamlined into the Aggie       internet, mobile phones etc., have an unbelievable access to the
platform and election results and other related events streamed in real       information and great ability to engage the electoral process like never
time, allowing access to live information. Trends were grouped around         before. The emergence of social media has further enhanced such a
voting logistics, violence, political parties, etc. The SMTC team             reality. Today the Nigerian citizen no longer has to wait to engage most
watched the developments and could quickly detect possible election           facets of life. One illustrative area is the electoral process.
irregularities or violence occurrences that warranted further attention;
these reports were then categorized as incidents. By the end of the           This fact came to the fore owing to the changes witnessed in Nigeria,
elections, over a quarter million of reports had been monitored via the       especially during the 2011 general elections. Social media redefined
platform and about 350 incidents logged. No more will Ghanaian                citizens' engagement, not just with themselves, but with the INEC in
citizens have to wait for traditional media to inform them on the             ways never before experienced. Platforms like Twitter, Facebook,
outcome of elections. Technology has directly given them the ability to       YouTube, Flickr became the prominent spheres for engagement. The
engage, follow and report on the outcomes of the process.                     frenzy caught up with politicians, electorates, media houses and even
                                                                              the election management body. In the days leading up to the elections
During the post-election period, the platforms continued to be useful,        the over 5 million users on Facebook were engaged one way or the other
even the electoral commission established their own social media              in the electoral process. President Goodluck Jonathan announced his
outlets, and results were pasted on them for easy access. Thus, one did       bid for the highest office on Facebook. On Wednesday, September 15th,
not have to wait for announcements on radio or television. Citizens           2010, he informed his 217,000-plus fans on the world's most popular
continued to engage in debates and dialogues on the elections; one did        networking platform of his intent. Twenty four hours later, 4,000 more
not need to get to a radio station or television to do so.. Also, their       fans joined his page. By the day of the election, on April 16th, 2011, he
mobile phones allowed them to interact with their fellow countrymen,          had over half a million followers. Even the INEC, which in earlier years
not just those within the country, but those across the globe as well. On     relied on government media outlets and on few private ones took to
the whole, and thanks to technology, Ghana's polls were acclaimed as          social media. Between 10 March 10th and April 16th, 2011, the
the freest, fairest and most transparent elections in the region, raising     electoral commission posted almost 4,000 tweets, many in response to
the bar for other African countries' future elections.                        voter queries. Using Twitter, commission officials at polling stations
                                                                              around the country were also able to communicate among themselves,
Nigeria                                                                       and even confirmed the death of one of their members who had been
Nigeria's history of Democracy has been more turbulent than Ghana's;          attacked. "Twitter ultimately proved to be the most efficient way to
in the post independence period, in the 1960s, both countries have been       interact with INEC," the document authors report. The commission's
mostly dominated by military rule. A culture of concentration of power        use of social media led to its website receiving a record 25 million hits in
at the centre is one of the military's legacies, which continue to be a       three days during the presidential elections. "By using social media to
challenge to the democratic sphere. The country's history of elections is     inspire voters, the electoral commission has redefined elections in
filled with intrigues along regional, ethnic, tribal and religious lines.     Nigeria.
Most often, the result was the thwarting of civilian regimes, dating back
                                                                              Campaigns before election became prominent on social media
to the first episode, the 1966 coup that laid the foundation for the
                                                                              platforms in which candidates engaged the Nigerian populace. Civil
military's incursion into politics. From 1999 till date, Nigeria has
                                                                              Society organizations found a space in which they could engage the
enjoyed the longest span of democratic governance more than at any
                                                                              process, unchallenged. Groups like Reclaim Naija, Enough is Enough,
point in time in the nation's history. The conduct of elections has been
                                                                              Project Swift Count, Situation Room came with different initiatives that
one of the biggest challenges to democracy in Nigeria. The failure to
                                                                              expanded the citizens' sphere of engagement. The Enough is Enough
accept elections results has often been the main cause of the collapse of
                                                                              network initiated the Register, Select (ed), Vote and Protect (RSVP),
democratic governance in Nigeria, with the different electoral bodies in
                                                                              which focused on all stages of the election process (pre, during, and post
charge of the elections being the main malefactor. In the eyes of so many
                                                                              election periods).The project's target was to turn 87,297,789 Nigerians
Nigerians, the role of electoral commissions has over time left much to
                                                                              with mobile phones and 43, 982,200 with internet access into informal
be desired. The actions of Maurice Iwu, the Chair of the INEC during
                                                                              election observers.
the 2007 elections, brought the issue to the fore more than at any point in
time in Nigeria's history. They also contributed to the elections being
branded among the worst in the country's history. The INEC's Chair
                                                                                      Social media redefined citizens'
appointment by the President and his seemingly overwhelming control
                                                                                           engagement, not just with
over the electoral commission has often led to accusations of bias by the
electoral umpire in favour of ruling governments. The control of                     themselves, but with the INEC in
channels of communications in earlier times also did not help matters as
citizens had to solely rely on them for all kinds of information, even                ways never before experienced.
those relating to the electoral process, including the announcement of
election results.                                                                     Platforms like Twitter, Facebook,
Until the emergence of private media, information was to a large extent                   YouTube, Flickr became the
controlled by the government. Today, the information landscape has
changed. Like everywhere else in the world, information and                        prominent spheres for engagement

                                                                                                                                           8
implication being that more and more people will be able to afford
                                                                              them. Cheaper models from China are now readily available across the
                                                                              region. Fourth, because electoral management bodies are aware of the
                                                                              benefits of using social media in the last elections, they are bound to
                                                                              continue in this direction. Liaisons with civil society groups in the last
                                                                              elections went a long way in reposing confidence in the process, in both
                                                                              Nigeria and Ghana. Collaborations have already started in Nigeria as
                                                                              civil society groups in the country have been actively engaging in the
                                                                              collection of Permanent Voters Cards and in Continuous Voters
                                                                              Registration exercises in Ekiti and Osun states, in South West Nigeria,
                                                                              in the lead up to the gubernatorial elections on the 21st June and 9th
                                                                              August 2014 respectively. The hashtags #OsunDecides and
                                                                              #EkitiDecides are helping inform the electorate in those states with
                                                                              respect to the coming elections, enhancing interactive discussions
                                                                              among citizens, INEC and civil society organisations. It can only be
                                                                              hoped that as the stakes get higher, the negative potentials which
                                                                              accompany the use of such platforms in the dissemination of
                                                                              information do not come to adversely impact the electoral process. In
                                                                              diverse countries like Nigeria and Ghana in particular, a wrong tweet or
                                                                              posting on Facebook can lead to chaos. Necessary checks, advise and
On election day, the Social Media Tracking Centre gathered and                sensitization on the need to positively use these technologies will be
effectively analysed the importance of real-time data collected from the      important measures in the coming months and years as more youths
different technologies that were in use, Facebook, Twitter, YouTube or        engage in the process. The possibility of chaos resulting from the use of
mobile phones, by the different civil society organisations that had          social media is real. Putting in place the necessary checks is the only
adopted the use of social media as a means of observing and monitoring        way out. While this is the case, in recent times there have been
the elections. The Election Situation Room was another concept                pronouncements in Nigeria towards censorship of social media by the
fashioned after the war time situation room. It was also organized by         government, in view of the positive impacts that social media has had
civil society organizations, and employed the use of social media             on our society especially on a process like elections, one hopes that such
platforms and SMS technology as well to engage the elections. Reports         censorship does not in any way deter the success made by the citizenry
of incidents across the country were streamed in real time. Additionally,     in engaging not just elections but all other issues that promote a
a liaison was made with INEC to effectively tackle the problem.               democratic society.
Information Communication Technologies (ICTs) and social media in
particularly bridged the gap between citizens and INEC, no longer were        Ghana and Nigeria have laid the foundations for future successful
there suspicions; everyone was working towards the success of the             electoral elections as illustrated by the route taken by many post 2011
elections. Today, the 2011 election are referred to as one of the country's   and 2012 elections. While there are inherent dangers with the use of
best elections despite the challenges witnessed. To track violence,           social media, the positives outweigh the negatives if one recalls what
which has been a major bane with Nigerian elections, the Nigerian             the situation was a few decades ago. What happened in Nigeria and
Election Violence Report is used the Ushahidi Platform embedded with          Ghana can only be consolidated. The future and legitimacy of elections
an SMS monitor to receive information on acts of violence during              in the region depends so much on how citizens are able to engage the
elections.                                                                    electoral process. Social media platforms, alongside the mobile phone
                                                                              technology have created the space and laid the foundation for
As election beckons in the coming years, we can only imagine what             successful elections, it is now up to West African citizens to consolidate
power ICTs and social media can still provide the citizenry of not only       their engagement in the coming years.
Ghana and Nigeria, but from the whole of West Africa to engage the
process in ways that will make them more transparent. There are
various indicators that suggest that these technologies will, in the                       “Social media platforms,
coming years, impact more the outcomes of elections. First, the
population of Ghana and Nigeria, especially the youth, is on the                       alongside the mobile phone
increase; and they are a more technology savvy generation seeking to
explore these technologies in ways that could enhance their
                                                                                       technology have created the
engagement in the political space, which in turn can give them better
livelihoods. Second, the use of these social media platforms is on the
                                                                                  space and laid the foundation for
increase. Today, the numbers are vastly different from what was
recorded three or so years ago. Ghana, for instance, has now more than 1
                                                                                   successful elections, it is now up
million Facebook. The interest the coming elections are bound to stir
will without doubts send these figures up as 2016 gets closer. In Nigeria,
                                                                                          to West African citizens to
the numbers have significantly shot up from recorded in 2011, as in                consolidate their engagement in
2013, over 11 million Nigerians were active on Facebook, surpassing
South Africa. Third, the technologies are getting cheaper, the                                   the coming years.”
         9
POST-ARAB SPRING: ECOWAS AND THE PROMOTION
     OF DEMOCRATIC VALUES IN WEST AFRICA
                                                                                                                           Shola Omotola (PhD)

                                                                                                                     The Arab spring
                                                                                                                     may have come
                                                                                                                        and gone.
                                                                                                                   However, its impact
                                                                                                                       has been far-
                                                                                                                     reaching in the
                                                                                                                    affected countries
                                                                                                                      or regions and
                                                                                                                          beyond.

Introduction                                                                           notably the internet and mobile phones, as well as the online accessories they
                                                                                       offer such as Facebook and Twitter, as tools for social mobilization, social
                                                                                       action and regime change. It also reveals that, contrary to the emphasis on
The Arab spring may have come and gone. However, its impact has been far-
                                                                                       'formal organisational' issues in the conventional literature on civil society, the
reaching in the affected countries or regions and beyond. There have also been
                                                                                       civil populace can, through the new/social media, actually 'organise' without
genuine concerns about the potential for spillover or contagion into other
                                                                                       identifiable leadership and coordination, thereby limiting predictability of
regions of the continent. Such a concern is understandable given that the
                                                                                       social action and government's control. The uprisings generated different
conditions that generated and propelled the uprisings in the Middle East and
                                                                                       responses from different governments. It similarly led to different outcomes in
North Africa (MENA) are present in many other African countries, namely
                                                                                       different countries. In Tunisia and Egypt, for example, the uprisings toppled
governance and legitimacy crisis. Outside Africa, concerns have also been
                                                                                       long-standing authoritarian regimes without much bloodshed/deaths. In Libya,
raised, especially in the light of political developments in the affected countries,
                                                                                       on the contrary, the revolt degenerated into civil war or what has been called an
most notably the increasing role that Islamist forces have come to play in the
                                                                                       'armed rebellion'. The key insights from the above points are many. One,
aftermath of the Arab spring. The West seems to be worried, not only about the
                                                                                       national specifics or contextual variables can shape the course and cause of
assumed incompatibility of Islamist ideology with democratic values, but also
                                                                                       popular revolts, official responses and outcomes. One can therefore argue that
about the possibility of Islamist regimes pushing the 'clash of civilizations' a
                                                                                       any African government which ignores the power of social media as tools for
little further, which is a development that could embolden local Islamist forces
                                                                                       political and social reengineering, especially in relation to collective civil
elsewhere to challenge the existing order. This insight focuses on the post-Arab
                                                                                       actions, is easily vulnerable. Two, a government cannot really repress the
spring, with emphasis on the possibility of spillover into West Africa. It also
                                                                                       popular will of the people, particularly when it is intrinsically genuine, as
explores the role of the Economic Community of West African State
                                                                                       opposed to induced revolts. Furthermore, it appears that the initial termination
(ECOWAS) in promoting democratic governance as an antidote to the
                                                                                       of a regime, whatever forms it may take, does not automatically end a revolt.
reincarnation of the Arab spring in the sub-region. Finally, the insight
undertakes a prognostic analysis underscoring the possibility and limitation of
such a development in West Africa, before concluding with some projections             Possibilities and Limitations of Spillover
with respect to the issue in the coming years.
                                                                                       The question of whether the Arab spring could be replicated in other parts of
                                                                                       Africa has been on the plate since the uprisings in North Africa. Such a concern
Key Issues and Lessons of the Arab Spring                                              is understandable for a number of reasons, which largely explain the
                                                                                       possibilities of contagion in West Africa.
The starting point is a careful identification of key issues in the development and
implementation of the Arab spring. Such reflections offer important entry point        To begin with, the conditions that underpinned the Arab spring, both as triggers
into a critical analysis of the West African case.                                     and accelerators, namely governance and legitimacy crisis, and the increasing
                                                                                       spread and influence of the new/social media, are known to be hugely present in
First, the Arab spring was monumentally unprecedented in the region. It                the sub-region. With respect to the former (governance and legitimacy crisis),
challenged long-standing authoritarian regimes, leading to their eventual              there are sufficient reasons to be worried. Although almost all West African
demise. Second, the uprisings were largely unanticipated. Third, despite notable       countries have exited the formal authoritarian typology, following the spread of
contextual variations in the triggers and accelerators of the uprisings, a common      the third wave of democratization beginning from the early 1990s, the
denominator seems to be the all-pervasive governance and legitimacy crisis in          democratic credentials of most of these countries hardly transcend the hold of
these countries, evidenced in the lack of accountability and delivery of public        periodic, but facade elections that are anything but credible and legitimate. Most
goods and services. , Surprisingly, Tunisia provided the critical tipping point for    of these elections are characterised by poor level of competition, so much so that
the uprising before spreading to Egypt and Libya, among others. Until then,            the ruling party always won in landslides despite poor performance in power,
Tunisia had always 'projected an image of stability to the world and                   with limited or no chance of power alternation. Such tendencies have been
distinguished itself from other Arab countries for its macroeconomic                   witnessed in Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, and Senegal at various stages of the
achievements and progress in the area of economic growth, health, education            electoral cycle. The post-election violence that attended the 2010 and 2011
and women's rights'. Yet, the costs of living and level of youth unemployment          elections in Cote d'Ivoire and Nigeria respectively are crucial examples. Even in
were extremely high, suggesting that statistics can be misleading and that             countries reputed as the flagship and model of electoral politics in West Africa,
growth does not necessarily translate into development, except that, if well           most notably Ghana, which boasts two alternations, in 2000 and 2008, the last
managed, its proceeds can help reduce, if not eliminate inequality and                 election of 2012 was fiercely contested Tension-soaked subsequently, and the
corruption.                                                                            election outcomes were challenged in the Supreme Court, thereby raising
                                                                                       critical questions about its legitimacy. This raises questions about the
Furthermore, the Arab spring underscores the power of the social media,                procedural qualities of African democracies.

                                                                                                                                                       10
Nigeria in January 2012 over the fuel subsidy palaver. The Nigerian President,
                                                                                         Goodluck Jonathan, was to admit later how terrified its government was about
                                                                                         the possibility of being overthrown, given the unprecedented scale and dynamics
                                                                                         of the civil protests across the country, including the prominent role of popular
                                                                                         culture in the process, and the invention of the Nigerian version of the 'occupy
                                                                                         movement', most illustrated by the use of the Gani Fawehinmi (Freedom) square
                                                                                         as a rallying point in Lagos. If such revolts have happened before, then they can
                                                                                         happen again. If anything, it can be a question of degree, not of kind, suggesting
                                                                                         that the possibilities for such revolts recurring exist, but may not necessarily
                                                                                         follow the same pattern. That is the lesson to be learnt from these array of cases
                                                                                         illustrated above.

                                                                                         Despite these potentials for spillovers, some analysts are sceptical about the Arab
                                                                                         spring-like protests actually happening in West Africa. Their main argument has
                                                                                         been that the relatively homogenous nature of North African countries, with few
                                                                                         exemptions, particularly Libya, played important roles in the success of the
                                                                                         uprisings in the region. This is because, as the argument goes, ethno-religious
                                                                                         homogeneity tends to enhance collective socio-political actions. This contrasts
                                                                                         sharply with those of Sub-Saharan Africa, where most countries are deeply
                                                                                         segmented, which will hamper effective mobilization of the diverse fragments of
Besides, the economic and social foundations of the democratization process              society in support of a collective action as in the Arab spring. While such a
have been very weak in many West African countries. This is exemplified by a             concern may be valid, it should not be overstressed. As already argues above,
rising level of poverty, youth unemployment, food insecurity and general costs           West Africans tend to rise over and above their fault lines of cleavages in support
of living. Take food crisis for example, available statistics reveal that in Benin       of a common cause. This was the case during the struggle for 'Africa's second
and Mali, 12% of the population are undernourished. In Niger and Senegal, the            liberation' beginning from the late 1980s. This can be replicated in the inevitable,
figures are 16% and 19% respectively. This is a terrible situation because food          imminent struggle for good governance and social justice.
insecurity, as some studies showed ,'can increase the risk of governance failures
and lead to protests, violence and civil conflict, while violent conflicts can in turn
create food insecurity, malnutrition and famine'. This can consecutively generate
                                                                                         The Role of the Economic Community of West
and sustain conflict. The civil unrest caused by the volatility of food prices in        African States (ECOWAS)
Burkina-Faso, Cote d'Ivoire, and Senegal in 2007 and 2008 are good illustrations
of such a situation.                                                                     ECOWAS role in the promotion of democratic governance in West Africa,
                                                                                         before, and after the Arab spring, can be assessed in two ways: preventive and
Other interrelated factors have exacerbated the socio-economic fragility of most         reactive responses. At the level of prevention, the ECOWAS has some regulatory
West African countries, especially the fast growing population, the youth bulge,         norms through which it aspires to promote democratic good governance, thereby
and the increasing influence of social media. The region's land area is roughly 5        preventing popular revolts. These include the treaty establishing the ECOWAS,
million km². In 2010, the West African population stood at approximately 317             which contains important provisions on democratic development; good
million people. However, with an average annual population growth rate                   governance; and regional security, most notably the maintenance of regional
estimated at 3%, it is forecast that the sub-region's population will reach 430          peace, stability and security through the promotion and strengthening of good
million by 2020, and 500 million between 2030 and 2035. The population is also           neighbourliness; recognition; promotion; and protection of human and peoples'
divided along ethno-regional, religious, and linguistics lines, which has posed          rights in accordance with the provisions of the African Charter on Human and
serious challenges of democratisation and peace-building'.                               Peoples' Rights; accountability, economic and social justice and popular
                                                                                         participation in development; and promotion and consolidation of a democratic
Unless something is done to enhance the resourcefulness of these populations,            system of governance in each Member State.
including equal economic opportunities, job creation, and human security in
general, they can easily become democratic and developmental liabilities.                The Protocol on Democracy and Good Governance of 2001 represents another
Unfortunately, the outlook does not look really good. For example, youth                 important normative instrument, which maintained the organization's zero
unemployment hovers around 20% in many West African countries, which is in               tolerance to unconstitutional changes of government. Specifically, the protocol
line with the current trend in Africa— youth unemployment in sub-Saharan                 provides, in its Article 1, that every accession to power must be made through
Africa is estimated at over 20%. In the continent, approximately 133 million             free, fair, and transparent elections; zero tolerance for power obtained or
young people (more than 50% of the youth population) are illiterate. In the              maintained by unconstitutional means; and popular participation in decision-
Nigerian case, the African Development Bank reveals that, in 2011,                       making; strict adherence to democratic principles. It is instructive to note that the
unemployment rate was at 24% compared to 21% in 2010. More precisely, the                protocol also provides for instruments of implementation and sanctions in case
rate was higher among youths aged between15 and 24 (38%); and between 25                 of violation as contained in its Article 45 (1-4).
and 44 (22%). Social media too has been growing in terms of accessibility, use,
and influence in the sub-region due to the revolution in information technology.
Unlike in the past decades when the internet and telephones were restricted to
very few households, existing data reveal some improvement, showing some
countries with over 50% improvement in connectivity.
                                                                                                   Despite these potentials for
The fact that Africa in general and West Africa in particular has a rich history of
civil activism and protests raises the feasibility of an Arab-spring-like revolt in               spillovers, some analysts are
the sub-region. Michael Bratton and Nicholas Van de Walle documented how
protests in the capital city of several African countries in the late 1980s and early                sceptical about the Arab
1990s, together with external pressures, played a crucial role in enhancing the
penetration of the current wave of democratization in the continent. Many of                       spring-like protests actually
such protests occurred in West Africa, most notably Nigeria. More recently,
some other West African countries have witnessed such uprisings, probably
under different circumstances, as was the case in Guinea in 2006 and 2007,
                                                                                                    happening in West Africa.
where the people yielded to the call by trade union and civil society organizations
to protest against the authoritarian regime of the then President Lansana Conté,
                                                                                                Their main argument has been
leading to the eventual resignation of the cabinet and the formation of a new
government. Indeed, prior to the 2013 parliamentary election in Guinea, there
                                                                                                that the relatively homogenous
were massive protests led by the opposition over fear of electoral irregularities
by the ruling party. Many people were killed and many more wounded. In                                nature of North African
Burkina Faso, in 2013, a proposed move to establish a Senate provoked four
massive demonstrations within a month, of which the opposition led three—on                     countries, with few exemptions,
June28 and 29; and July 20, and President Blaise Compaoré ruling party one,
exactly on 6 July. In Senegal, in 2011, then President Wade was compelled to                        particularly Libya, played
accede to opposition's demand for protests, albeit following the North African
experience, which reveals the limits of state repression against popular
uprisings. The Y'en A Marre (Enough is Enough or We are Fed Up in French)
                                                                                                 important roles in the success
movement, a civil group of friends made up of young journalists and rap
musicians whose band is called 'Keur Gui', led the protest, using it as a tool of
                                                                                                 of the uprisings in the region.
mobilization before, during, and after the 2012 elections.. The same happened in

         11
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