BUILDING BLOCKS A PRACTICAL APPROACH TO INFRASTRUCTURE AND LAND SUPPLY - Illawarra and Shoalhaven Edition August 2021

Page created by Roger Dixon
 
CONTINUE READING
BUILDING BLOCKS A PRACTICAL APPROACH TO INFRASTRUCTURE AND LAND SUPPLY - Illawarra and Shoalhaven Edition August 2021
BUILDING
BLOCKS
A PRACTICAL APPROACH
TO INFRASTRUCTURE
AND LAND SUPPLY

Illawarra and Shoalhaven Edition
August 2021
BUILDING BLOCKS A PRACTICAL APPROACH TO INFRASTRUCTURE AND LAND SUPPLY - Illawarra and Shoalhaven Edition August 2021
UDIA BUILDING BLOCKS
NSW ILLAWARRA & SHOALHAVEN

                             Message from the CEO
                             Steve Mann
                             UDIA NSW CEO

                             The Illawarra Shoalhaven is at a crisis point as we face a rapidly decreasing supply
                             of serviced land for development. The critical shortage of greenfield housing
                             extends throughout the region and is having a major impact on deteriorating
                             housing affordibility.

                             House sales have seen up to a 50% lift beyond market expectations and we
                             are well ahead of projected lot releases. This is the result of a combination of
                             factors including record low interest rates, regional migration, government
                             home purchase incentives and COVID-19 induced demand for space.

                             Our 2018 UDIA NSW Building Blocks report proposed several enabling
                             infrastructure projects for the Illawarra Shoalhaven to support greenfield
                             housing in the key urban release areas. Over the past three years, not much
                             has changed.

                             In-migration is increasing, as people look for regional housing solutions
                             out of Sydney. Whilst there have been lots released in West Lake Illawarra
                             and apartment development in the Wollongong CBD and Kiama township,
                             the pace of development is not keeping up with demand and house prices
                             continue to climb.

                             Over the past 12 months, we have seen house prices rise by more than 20%
                             in Shoalhaven and 12% in Wollongong. Kiama now has an average house
                             price of $1million.

                             In June 2021, the Minister for Planning and Public Spaces released the
                             Illawarra Shoalhaven Regional Plan 2041 and in August 2021, Transport for
                             NSW (TfNSW) finalised the Illawarra Shoalhaven Regional Transport Plan.

                             UDIA NSW supports these plans and our new Building Blocks Illawarra
                             Shoalhaven 2021 report, prepared in collaboration with Cardno, identifies
                             the critical enabling infrastructure needed to further support up to 500,000
                             people that will live in the region by 2041.

                             To help achieve this, we request Government commits $136.6 million for
                             six recommended water and sewer projects that will unblock 11,600 lots by
                             2024 in the West Lake Illawarra and Nowra-Bomaderry Urban Release Areas
                             (URA).

Illawarra and Shoalhaven     With no funding allocated in the NSW Budget 2021-22 for critical enabling
Partner                      water and sewer infrastructure to support growth in the Illawarra Shoalhaven,
                             we are concerned that the region will continue to suffer from rising house
                             prices, home rental increases, housing stress and homelessness. The
                             development industry will also suffer due to a dwindling greenfield pipeline
                             and a direct threat to construction jobs.

                             The NSW Government needs to take urgent action to ramp up the delivery
                             of enabling infrastructure to avoid dire consequences for jobs, housing
                             affordability and the wider economy in the region. The recent announcement
                             by the Minister for Planning and Public Spaces to establish a Regional Housing
                             Taskforce to identify solutions to improve housing supply in regional NSW
                             is a positive step and this Building Blocks report will be a key advocacy tool
                             for the region.

2
BUILDING BLOCKS A PRACTICAL APPROACH TO INFRASTRUCTURE AND LAND SUPPLY - Illawarra and Shoalhaven Edition August 2021
UDIA BUILDING BLOCKS
                                                    NSW ILLAWARRA & SHOALHAVEN

Above: Coast, Manyana by Fountaindale Group
Cover Image: Coast, Manyana by Fountaindale Group

                                                                             3
BUILDING BLOCKS A PRACTICAL APPROACH TO INFRASTRUCTURE AND LAND SUPPLY - Illawarra and Shoalhaven Edition August 2021
UDIA BUILDING BLOCKS
NSW ILLAWARRA & SHOALHAVEN

West Lake Illawarra

West Lake Illawarra is the primary Urban Release Area (URA) in the Illawarra Shoalhaven region and is proposed
for 20,000 dwellings, or 60% of the total 30,000 new houses to be provided in the region by 2041. There are still
large areas of unzoned land at West Lake Illawarra, including Calderwood, Cleveland, and Avondale.

We have focused on the enabling infrastructure required to support zoned areas at Yallah Marshall Mount, North
Macquarie and Tullimbar, which can result in greenfield housing being released in a three-year time frame.

Building Blocks Illawarra Shoalhaven 2021 recommends four key critical infrastructure projects for the West Lake
Illawarra URA, unlocking 8,100 lots within three years, and more in the medium term.

These key projects are critical because without them development cannot proceed. The projects are:

    1. Kembla Grange and Yallah Marshall Mount Sewage Pumping Station and associated Trunk
       Gravity Mains
       Capacity constraints require a major investment to ensure future development at Huntley, Cleveland and
       Avondale can proceed. There is also no capacity available to service proposed development at West Dapto
       Stage 3 and Yallah Marshall Mount.

    2. Avondale Reservoir and Trunk Main
       Without a new reservoir, supply and pressure issues will continue to restrict development.

    3. Calderwood Sewage Pumping Station, Rising Main and Trunk Main
       Future development on the northern side of Calderwood Road, including Town Centre East and the
       proposed school sites, are reliant on the future Calderwood sewage pumping station (SPS). The pump
       station was originally to be commissioned by end of 2021 but this has now pushed out to 2026 based on
       the latest Sydney Water Growth Servicing Plan.

    4. Mt Terry Water Lead-In
       The Mt Terry Water Lead-In is required to service elevated pockets of lots within Calderwood especially
       those lots above Raised Level (RL) 60m.

                                                               LOT YIELD
                             PROJECT                           (UNLOCKED        LOT YIELD        COST PER
INFRASTRUCTURE                                COST
                             STAGE                             WITHIN 3         (TOTAL)          LOT
                                                               YEARS)
Kembla Grange and            Strategic        $56M             5,000            14,500           $3,860
Yallah Marshall Mount        Planning
SPS and associated
Trunk Gravity Mains
Avondale Reservoir           Option           $20M             5,100            7,700            $2,600
and Trunk Main               Planning
Calderwood SPS,              Strategic        $18M             1,900            4,500            $4,000
Rising Main and Trunk        Planning
Main
Mt Terry Water Lead-In       Concept          $2.6M            1,200            1,200            $2,170
                             Planning
TOTAL                                         $96.6M           8,100*           19,000*          $5,080 avg

* Some of the projects above have overlapping catchments for the lots benefitted. The total lot calculation seeks
to ensure that lots are not double counted.

4
UDIA BUILDING BLOCKS
                                                                                                                                                                NSW ILLAWARRA & SHOALHAVEN

West Lake Illawarra

The map below shows only those lots which are within the direct catchment of the projects listed. Lots not
benefited by these projects have not been shown.

                                                                                                                                                                               Mount
                                                                                                                            Cordeaux                                           Kembla                       Cordeaux
                                                                                                                                                                   Kembla                                    Heights
                                                                                                                                                                   Heights

                                                                                                                                                                                     Farmborough
                                                                                                                  Dombarton                                                             Heights
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Unanderra

                                                                                                                                                              Kembla Grange

                                                                                                 Wongawilli
                                                                                                                                                                                     #
                                                                                                                                                                                     _

                                                                                                                                                                               Brownsville                                  Berkeley
                                                  Avon                                                                                                                                                AY
                                                                                                                                                                                                    RW
                                                                                                                                                                                             TO
                                                                                                                                                                                           MO
                                                                                                                                                                                      ES
                                                                                                                                                                                   NC
                                                                                                                               Horsley

                                                                                                                                                                                 I
                                                                                                                                                                               PR
                                                                           West Dapto 1 and 2                                                                                             Kanahooka
                                                                           Urban Release Area

                                                                                                                                                                   AY
                                                                                                                                                                                            Kembla Grange and

                                                                                                                                                                 HW
                                                                                                                                                                                             YMM SPS Project

                                                                                                                                                              HIG
                                                                                                                                                                                            Approx. 14,500 Lots

                                                                                                                                                           ES
                                                                                       Huntley                   Kembla Grange
                                                                                                                 SPS Catchment                         I NC
                                                                                                                                                     PR
                                                                          West Dapto 3                                                                         Dapto
                                                                       Urban Release Area                                Cleveland

                                                                                                                                                                                 Koonawarra
                                                             West Dapto 4
                                                          Urban Release Area

                                 Avondale Reservoir
                                      Project                                               Avondale
                                 Approx. 7,700 Lots
                                                                                                        !
                                                                                                        *
                                                                                                                                   #
                                                                                                                                   _                           Yallah
                                                                                                                     Yallah Marshall
                                                                                                                       Mount SPS
                                                                                                                       Catchment
                                         Marshall
                                          Mount                                                                                                       Haywards Bay
                                                             West Dapto 5
                                                          Urban Release Area

                                                                                                                 #
                                                                                                                 _
                                                                                                                                                                                        Calderwood SPS
                                                                                                                                                                                            Project
                                                                                                                                                                                       Approx. 4,500 Lots
                                         Calderwood                                                                                Avondale
                                                                                  Calderwood
                                                                                 SPS Catchment                                     Reservoir
                                                                                                                                   Catchment                                                        Oak Flats

             Macquarie
               Pass                                                                               North
                                                                                                Macquarie                                                        RA ROAD
                                                                                                                                                     TONGAR                                                                   Blackbutt
                                                                                                                                                                        Albion
              I L LAW
                                                                                                                                                                         Park
                        AR                                                                                                                                               Rail
                          RA
                             HI G
                                  HW
                                    AY         Calderwood                                                                     Albion Park
                                            Urban Release Area
                                                                                                 Tullimbar
                                            Tongarra                                                                                                                               Mt Terry Lead in
                                                                                                                                         TER

                                                                                                                                                                                       Project
                                                                                                                                            RY S

                                                                                                                                                                                  Approx. 1,200 Lots
                                                                                                                                             R EET

                                                                                                Tullimbar
              Legend                                                                        Urban Release Area
                                                                                                                                                 T

                                                                                                                                                                                Croom

               !
               *         Proposed Reservoir

               #
               _         Proposed Pump Station
                         Proposed Water Main                                           Yellow Rock
               Robertson
                    Proposed Gravity Main
                         Proposed Rising/Pressure Main
                         Zoned Land
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Dunmore
                         Unzoned Land
                                                                                                                                                       O AD

                                                                                                                       Curramore
                         Release Staging
                                  KnightsBoundary
                                          Hill
                                                                                                                                                     OR

                         Approximate Water Servicing
                                                                                                                                                     O
                                                                                                                                                  ER

                         Catchment
                                                                                                                                                MB

                                                                                  Jamberoo
                                                                                                                                              JA

                                                                                                                                                                           r
                                                                                       Critical Infrastructure investment
                                                 1:55,000 Scale at A3                 needed to accelerate land holdings                                                                Map Produced by Cardno NSW/ACT Pty Ltd (WOL)

                                                                                                  in the Illawarra
                                                                                                                                                                                            Date: 2021-06-07 | Project: 48982021-550
                                                            km                                                                                                                            Coordinate System: GDA 1994 MGA Zone 56
                                             0      0.5     1    1.5      2                                                                                                      Map: 48982021-550-GS-003-Critical Infrastructure Illawarra.mxd 05
                                                                                                              WEST DAPTO, NSW                                                                       Basemap supplied by Esri

            Figure 1 - Lots within West Lake Illawarra URA that benefit from the listed projects

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     5
UDIA BUILDING BLOCKS
NSW ILLAWARRA & SHOALHAVEN

Nowra-Bomaderry

Nowra-Bomaderry is the primary URA in Shoalhaven Region and covers land on the north side of the Shoalhaven
River.

This URA presently remains underdeveloped. Building Blocks Illawarra Shoalhaven 2021 has identified two critical
water and sewer projects along Moss Vale Road that could unlock 3,500 lots within three years.

    1. Moss Vale Road North and South SPS
       The existing sewer network adjacent to the Moss Vale Road precinct is at capacity and is unable to accept
       additional loads, even as an interim solution. A new pump station and rising main are required to service
       these lots.

    2. Moss Vale Road Reservoir and Potable Water upgrades
       The existing reservoir does not have the capacity to support the new Moss Vale Road precinct. A new
       additional reservoir of appropriate size is required to support the URA, as part of a long-term future
       supply scheme.

                                                               LOT YIELD
                             PROJECT                           (UNLOCKED        LOT YIELD         COST PER
INFRASTRUCTURE                                COST
                             STAGE                             WITHIN 3         (TOTAL)           LOT
                                                               YEARS)
Moss Vale Road North         Detailed         $26M                                                $7,430
and South SPS                Design
                                                               3,500            3,500
Moss Vale Road               Concept          $14M                                                $4,000
Reservoir and Potable        Design
Water upgrades
TOTAL                                         $40M             3,500            3,500             $11,428 avg

These key projects are critical because without them development cannot proceed.

6
UDIA BUILDING BLOCKS
                                                                                                                                      NSW ILLAWARRA & SHOALHAVEN

Nowra-Bomaderry
             Red Rocks

                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jaspers Brush

                                                                                                 Beaumont
                                                      M O SS V
                                                              AL ROA
                                                                E

                                                                    D
The map below
          Browns
          Mountain
                   shows only those lots which are within the direct catchment of the projects listed. Lots not
benefited by these projects have not been shown and rely on other critical infrastructure.

                                                              Cambewarra

                                               Additional
                                               3.5ML
                                               Reservoir                                                                                                                                 PRINCES HIGHWAY
                                           !
                                           *
                                                                                                                Moss Vale Road
                                                                                                                Reservoir & PW upgrades
                                                                                                                Approx 3500 lots
                                                                                                                            Meroo Meadow

                                                                         APA23 Connection

                                                                               #
                                                                               _

                                                                                                                         #
                                                                                                                         _
                                                                                                                           MVRN SPS

           Tapitallee

                                                                                                                                                                                                SPS08

                                                                                                     #
                                                                                                     _                                                                                      #
                                                                                                                                                                                            _                 Bolong

                                                                                                          MVRS SPS

                                                                                                            Moss Vale Road
                                         Bangalee
                                                             North Nowra Diversion                          North & South SPS
                                                                                                            Approx. 3,500 lots
                                                                                                                                           Bomaderry

                                                                                            North Nowra                                                                        D
                                                                                                                                                                             OA
                                                                                                                                                                       LONG R
                                                                                                                                                                     BO

                  Longreach

                                                                                                                                                                                                    Terara

         Legend

         !
         *    Proposed Reservoir

         #
         _    Proposed Sewer Pump Station                                                                 West Nowra                         Nowra
                                                                                                                                                      TREET

              Proposed Water Main                             Mundamia
              Proposed Gravity Sewer
                                                                                                                                              EAS T S

              Proposed Pressure Main
              Eastern Gas Pipeline (Jemena)
              Zoned Land

                                                                                                                                               r
                                                                            Critical Infrastructure investment
                                       1:30,000 Scale at A3
                                                m
                                                                           needed to accelerate land holdings                                                       Map Produced by Cardno NSW/ACT Pty Ltd (WOL)
                                                                                                                                                                        Date: 2021-06-07 | Project: 48982021-550

                                   0     250    500   750   1,000                    in the Shoalhaven                                                                 Coordinate System: GDA 1994 MGA Zone 56
                                                                                                                                                              Map: 48982021-550-GS-004-Critical Infrastructure Shoal .mxd 03
                                                                                                     NOWRA, NSW                                                                 Basemap supplied by Esri

       Figure 2 - Lots within Nowra Bomaderry URA that benefit from the listed projects

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               7
UDIA BUILDING BLOCKS
NSW ILLAWARRA & SHOALHAVEN

Building Blocks Catalytic Infrastructure
Methodology

UDIA and Cardno have identified catalyst infrastructure on land that is ‘ready to go’. We pinpointed areas where
the last missing piece of infrastructure cannot be delivered by the development industry alone.

Our focus was on infrastructure, including roads, electricity, sewer, and water that can be delivered within 3 years.

UDIA NSW and Cardno have developed a framework that addresses the current market conditions and unlocks
the most supply:

     •   Greenfield land released and/or zoned for residential development in the key urban release areas of the
         Illawarra Shoalhaven that can supply dwellings to market within 3 years.
     •   Infrastructure projects that can be delivered within a 3-year time frame.
     •   Infrastructure projects unlikely or unable to be delivered by developers.

                                     BUILDING BLOCKS METHODOLOGY

    Identify stakeholders, growth           Review technical inputs and                 Infrastructure analysis
         and dwelling yields                  infrastructure projects

    • DPIE Development Scenarios          • Technical Reports                      • Identify Project Status
    • Development Pipeline (UDP)          • SIC and LUIIP Infrastructure             (Funded/Unfunded, Delivered
    • VPAs, Master Plans, ILPs etc          Schedules                                etc)
                                          • Land Ownership                         • Identify Infrastructure Trigger
                                          • Review DPIE Housing Supply               Points
                                            Forecasts                              • Define Infrastructure
                                                                                     “Catchments”
                                                                                   • Identify Funding Source and
                                                                                     Delivery Time frames

                                          Evaluation & recommendation               Development industry ground
                                                    of projects                              truthing

                                          • Review & identify                      • Review Housing Supply
                                            infrastructure projects that             Forecast Data with developer
                                            can release development                  intent
                                            within 3 years                         • Identify infrastructure
                                          • Identify High-Level Costs                delivery & funding issues on
                                          • Calculate $ per dwelling                 key sites
                                          • Finalise recommended
                                            projects

8
UDIA BUILDING BLOCKS
                                                                               NSW ILLAWARRA & SHOALHAVEN

So What’s Changed since
Building Blocks 2018

In the three years since Building Blocks Illawarra Shoalhaven 2018 was released, we have seen record dwelling
completions in greenfield markets in 2018-19, followed by a significant slowdown in 2019-20. The response to
COVID-19 towards greenfield housing, regional migration and the roll-out of HomeBuilder in mid-late 2020, has
caused a major rebound to occur. We now have a fast-depleting supply of zoned and serviced greenfield land
resulting in a housing supply and emerging affordability crisis.

In 2018, UDIA NSW identified 15 water, sewer, road, and electrical utility projects to support growth in the key
URAs in the Illawarra Shoalhaven region. Since this time, there has not been a significant roll-out of enabling
infrastructure to sustain greenfield supply.

Only a handful of these projects have progressed to design, including: Moss Vale Road and intersections, sewer
pumping stations at Nowra-Bomadery, Northcliffe Drive extension. Some are due to commence construction
within 12 months at Nowra-Bomaderry and 24 months at Mundamia. However, most projects previously identified
have been deferred or delayed, especially at West Lake Illawarra.

This report has focused on those projects that are critical to housing release in these Urban Release Areas.
However, we support funding for those secondary projects identified in Appendix A to ensure integrated planning
and infrastructure outcomes.

The lack of a greenfield pipeline continues to present a major problem and now is the time to respond with firm
infrastructure measures to offset an impending housing affordability crisis.

Conclusion

There is a land availability crisis in the Illawarra Shoalhaven region. This crisis can be averted through the funding
of critical enabling infrastructure. Building Blocks Illawarra Shoalhaven 2021 identifies practical and realistic
infrastructure solutions to help sustain greenfield housing supply in the region at the key urban release areas of
West Lake Illawarra and Nowra-Bomaderry.

We recommend that the NSW Government provides direct funding ($136.6 million) for six water and sewer
projects identified in the key urban release areas to unlock 13,600 greenfield lots within a three-year time frame.

We hope that the NSW Government commits to the projects we have recommended to sustain the greenfield
supply, achieve housing affordability, and support the ongoing economic recovery in NSW.

                                                                                                                    9
UDIA BUILDING BLOCKS                                                         UDIA BUILDING BLOCKS
 NSW ILLAWARRA & SHOALHAVEN                                                   NSW H U N T E R R E G I O N

APPENDIX A – ILLAWARRA AND
SHOALHAVEN REGION CATALYST
ENABLING INFRASTRUCTURE
In the Building Blocks 2018 report, a number of projects were identified as being critical enabling infrastructure to
support development in the Region. The following table identifies those projects previously identified by the report
and updates their current status.

Urban Release Area /
                               Infrastructure Current Status
Precinct

West Lake Illawarra

Hayes Lane extension                Road        The Hayes Lane extension is now a part of the Western Ring
                                                Road project which has not progressed other than the Hayes
                                                Lane Bridge which is currently in concept design phase. The
                                                current contributions plan indicates delivery timing of 2021-
                                                2051.
Yallah Road / Marshall              Road        This project is currently only in investigation phase. The current
Mount Road                                      contributions plan indicates delivery timing of 2031-2056.
SPS at Kembla Grange                Sewer       Some concept planning has occurred, but the project has been
                                                deferred by Sydney Water. This project is identified in the 2021
                                                Building Blocks critical infrastructure project list.
SPS and Rising Main                 Sewer       Project has been delayed and is identified in the current Sydney
(Calderwood)                                    Water Growth Servicing Plan for delivery beyond 2025. This
                                                project is identified in the 2021 Building Blocks critical
                                                infrastructure project list.

SPS and Rising                      Sewer       Projects have been delayed and is identified in the current
Main and Lead-in (Yallah /                      Sydney Water Growth Servicing Plan for delivery beyond 2025.
Marshall Mount Road)                            This project is identified in the 2021 Building Blocks critical
                                                infrastructure project list.
Cleveland - Kembla Grange           Sewer       The project is identified in the current Sydney Water Growth
rising main SPS connection                      Servicing Plan for delivery beyond 2025. This project is identified
                                                in the 2021 Building Blocks critical infrastructure project list.

Northcliffe Drive extension          Road       Some design work has commenced, but the current
                                                contributions plan indicates delivery timing of 2031-2036.

10
UDIA BUILDING BLOCKS
                                                                           NSW ILLAWARRA & SHOALHAVEN

Urban Release Area /
                               Infrastructure Current Status
Precinct
Nowra Bomaderry

Moss Vale Road Upgrade             Road
                                              Shoalhaven City Council (SCC) and Transport for NSW are
                                              currently working on the draft concept designs to assist with the
                                              Housing Acceleration Fund (HAF) funded roundabout project.
Two Moss Vale Road                 Road       First roundabout into both the North and South of the precinct
Intersections                                 has HAF funding. Design is complete and construction is
                                              expected to commence in July 2021. There is no funding
                                              commitment to a 2nd roundabout (Main Road/Moss Vale
                                              Road) based on SCC designs. Bells Lane/Moss Vale Road/Far
                                              North Collector Road intersection is in detailed
                                              design with Federal Government funding.
Electrical Lead In               Electrical   Endeavour Energy has advised that there is capacity for early
                                              stages of development, which is subject to further assessment.

Electrical Zone Substation       Electrical   Endeavour Energy is presently investigating a suitable
                                              site and discussions have commenced with property owners to
                                              service the Moss Vale Road precincts (North and South) in the
                                              longer term.

2 x Sewer Pumping Stations         Sewer      Both SPS’s are in detailed design and construction to commence
                                              at the start of 2022.

Mundamia URA

Update Yalwal Road                 Road       SCC has secured funding from the NSW Government’s Low-Cost
                                              Loan Initiative (LCLI) to upgrade three intersections on Yalwal
                                              Road (at George Evans Road, Rannoch Drive, Lightwood Drive).
                                              Delivery deadline is June 2023.

Intersection Yalwal Road and       Road       The SCC Contributions Plan includes all works, as well as design
Albatross Road                                and construction.
Extension of George Evans          Road       SCC has secured LCLI funding to deliver, which could also occur
Road from Roundabout at                       via a planning agreement with first developer. Delivery deadline
University                                    is June 2023.
SPS and Rising Main                Sewer      Design work partially complete and SCC will commence
                                              construction at the initial stages of the URA’s development.

                                                                                                            11
UDIA NSW
                   Level 5, 56 Clarence St,
                   Sydney NSW 2000
                   P: 02 9262 1214
                   E: udia@udiansw.com.au
                   W: www.udiansw.com.au

Cardno
16 Burelli St, Wollongong, NSW 2500
P: (02) 4231 9600 | W: www.cardno.com
You can also read