Burning Questions - Pathways to a circular plastic packaging system in Germany
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BURNING QUESTIONS – PATHWAYS TO A CIRCULAR PLASTIC PACKAGING SYSTEM IN GERMANY
Burning Questions – Pathways to a circular
PREFACE3
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
plastic packaging system in Germany
4
INTRODUCTION 9
OUR LINEAR PACKAGING ECONOMY 11
SYSTEM CHANGE SCENARIO21
SYSTEM INTERVENTION
1 – ELIMINATE & MINIMIZE 33
2 - REUSE 37
3 – SUBSTITUTION 44
4 - DESIGN FOR RECYCLING 49
5 - INCREASING COLLECTION AND SORTING 53
6 - FOOD-GRADE PLASTICS 55
7 – RECYCLING MARKETS 59
CONCLUSION62
APPENDIX63
REFERENCES78
BURNING QUESTIONS – PATHWAYS TO A CIRCULAR PLASTIC PACKAGING SYSTEM IN GERMANY
Imprint Testimonial
Many thanks to the experts for closely accompanying the study. “This report compellingly demonstrates that creating a
PREFACE3 Their support does not imply endorsement with findings and circular economy for plastics would yield significant economic,
recommendations of the study. environmental and climate benefits for Germany. To realise
this opportunity, a fundamental shift is required.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 Prof. Dr. Marion Halfmann,
Professor of Niederrhein University of Applied Sciences We need to eliminate the plastics we don’t need, innovate
INTRODUCTION 9 towards new materials and business models, and circulate all
Dr. Claas Oehlmann the plastics we do use. The case is there, now let’s make
OUR LINEAR PACKAGING ECONOMY 11
Executive Director, BDI Initiative Circular Economy it happen.”
Dr. Bettina Rechenberg Rob Opsomer
SYSTEM CHANGE SCENARIO21 Head of Division Sustainable Production and Products, Executive Lead – Systemic Initiatives
Waste Management, Federal Environment Agency Ellen MacArthur Foundation
SYSTEM INTERVENTION
1 – ELIMINATE & MINIMIZE 33
Dr. Isabell Schmidt
Executive Director, German Association for Plastics Packaging and Films
2 - REUSE 37
3 – SUBSTITUTION 44 EDEKA ZENTRALE Stiftung & Co. KG
4 - DESIGN FOR RECYCLING 49 Sustainability Brand & Product
5 - INCREASING COLLECTION AND SORTING 53
6 - FOOD-GRADE PLASTICS 55
Publisher WWF Deutschland
Publication Date August 2021
7 – RECYCLING MARKETS 59 Authors Sophie Herrmann, Michael Kast, Carl Kühl,
Felix Philipp, Martin Stuchtey (SYSTEMIQ)
CONCLUSION62 Coordination Laura Griestop, Bernhard Bauske (WWF Deutschland)
SYSTEMIQ is a B Corp created in 2016 to drive achievement of the UN Sustainable
Contact laura.griestop@wwf.de
Development Goals and the Paris Agreement by transforming markets and
APPENDIX63
Layout Silke Roßbach
business models across three areas: land use, circular materials, and energy.
Photo Credits Report: Breaking the Wave (S. 7); Getty Images (Title, S. 10, S. 11,
Working with partners across sectors, SYSTEMIQ aims to unlock economic
S. 12, S. 15, S. 16, S. 21, S. 24, S. 29, S. 33, S. 34, S. 36, S. 37, opportunities that benefit business, society and the environment. SYSTEIMQ
REFERENCES78 S. 47, S. 53, S. 55, S. 58, S. 73, S. 77); SYSTEMIQ (S. 3); WWF is a global company in London, Munich, Jakarta, Amsterdam, Sao Paulo and
(S. 3, S. 48); Unsplash (S. 39, S. 44, S. 45, S. 49, S. 52, S. 59, S. 61) Paris. To learn more, visit www.systemiq.earth.
2
BURNING QUESTIONS – PATHWAYS TO A CIRCULAR PLASTIC PACKAGING SYSTEM IN GERMANY
Preface – Martin Bethke & Martin Stuchtey
PREFACE3 Plastic is a versatile and affordable material. It is also the epitome of
the current, linear production and consumption model, which is not
While the need to transition toward a circular economy has been made
abundantly clear by many, this study addresses the question of how
compatible with the planetary boundaries, the safe operating space of such a vision can become a reality: The goal of “Burning Questions –
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 our Earth. While plastic pollution abounds in the Global South, plastic Pathways to a circular plastic packaging system in Germany” is to
packaging systems in the Global North, including Germany, are also accelerate a transition towards circularity by showing feasible pathways
INTRODUCTION 9 problematic: materials are typically incinerated after only one use. towards a zero-waste economy. We created an analysis that evaluates
Martin Bethke
Although Germany is often heralded as a model for circular economy different strategies and quantifies their impact, in terms of volume and
OUR LINEAR PACKAGING ECONOMY 11
Executive Officer Markets & and recycling, the reality is far more complicated. recyclability of plastics, but also in terms of cost, GhG emissions and
Business, WWF Germany
jobs. We show that Germany can reduce overall waste volumes by 40%,
Plastic packaging consumption is growing, and materials are becoming virgin consumption by over 60% and waste to energy-incineration by
SYSTEM CHANGE SCENARIO21 increasingly complex and difficult to recycle. In Germany, more than over 70% by 2040 with superior economic outcomes.
half of the waste is still waste-to-energy incinerated, and of the other
SYSTEM INTERVENTION half most is exported “out of sight”, or recycled into low value products. Building on the methodology of ‘Breaking the Plastic Wave’ and on the
1 – ELIMINATE & MINIMIZE 33
As a result, just over 10% of the inputs for packaging are recyclates; findings of the Circular Economy Initiative Deutschland (CEID), this
and the rest is made of virgin plastic based on fossil oil. The country’s study is a one-of-a-kind quantitative analysis, providing a new, data-
2 - REUSE 37 trajectory, as it stands, is neither aligned with the Paris Accord, the driven and science-based perspective of the flows of plastic packaging
3 – SUBSTITUTION 44
Martin Stuchtey
Co-Founder & Managing European Green Deal nor the Sustainable Development Goals. in Germany. The study was a five-month effort, supported by five
4 - DESIGN FOR RECYCLING 49 Partner of SYSTEMIQ Ltd. experts and input from numerous interviews with stakeholders along
5 - INCREASING COLLECTION AND SORTING 53 In short, Germany currently is a long way from a circular economy for the value chain.
6 - FOOD-GRADE PLASTICS 55
plastics. But the study shows that we have a choice – system change is
possible and within reach; however, concerted, courageous action is The goal of this study is to help policymakers, industry, investors, and
7 – RECYCLING MARKETS 59 required from policymakers and industry leaders alike. civil society navigate this complex space and make courageous decisions
to improve plastic packaging strategies and achieve zero plastic pack-
CONCLUSION62 This study shows there is a way out, building on momentum that is aging waste, and to strengthen Germany as a technology leader in this
happening today. It comes at a time when UN member countries are important space.
APPENDIX63
negotiating a global treaty to stop plastic pollution, when policymakers
are revising packaging laws and regulations, and industry leaders are We hope this study will help Germany build on past achievements and
rethinking their waste and resource strategies. These critical decisions become the blueprint for a circular plastic economy in Europe, setting
REFERENCES78 will set the direction for the years, if not decades, to come. an example and paving the way for others to follow suit.
3
BURNING QUESTIONS – PATHWAYS TO A CIRCULAR PLASTIC PACKAGING SYSTEM IN GERMANY
Executive Summary
PREFACE3 Germany is often heralded as a leader in circular economy: With high waste collection
rates, a sophisticated deposit-return scheme for bottles and relatively high recycling rates,
at least in international comparison, Germany can indeed serve as a role model for many.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4
Our analysis reveals that much potential for a truly circular A transition towards a circular packaging economy requires a
INTRODUCTION 9 economy for packaging remains untapped; however, there is fundamental shift: A shift from “waste management” towards
a pathway to radically improve performance: Today, 89% of the paradigm of circular resource management, including a
OUR LINEAR PACKAGING ECONOMY 11
total packaging is made of virgin content and over 50% of the focus on waste prevention, on keeping materials in the loop,
packaging waste is used for waste-to-energy-recovery through and retaining their value as long as possible. We show that a
The system is still incineration. This translates into burning more than 1.6 million circular packaging economy is not an end in and of itself,
SYSTEM CHANGE SCENARIO21 highly linear: tons of plastic packaging waste, with the equivalent value but that such a transition is socially and environmentally
89% of plastic pack- of 3.8 bn Euros every year. Of the remaining half that is not desirable, as well as economically viable. We also show that
SYSTEM INTERVENTION aging is made of incinerated, 18% are exported, 10% are open-loop recycled it can be done with currently available tools and technologies.
virgin content; over
1 – ELIMINATE & MINIMIZE 33
and lost to the system after one, short use-cycle. As it stands, However, system change depends on courageous political will,
50% of packaging the German packaging system, and its trajectory, is neither A transition to a ambitious action by brands and close collaboration between
2 - REUSE 37 waste is incinerated aligned with the Paris Accord, the European Green Deal, nor circular economy industry, policy, and academia.
3 – SUBSTITUTION 44 after single-use the Sustainable Development Goals. is environmentally
4 - DESIGN FOR RECYCLING 49 and socially In this report we lay out our 11 critical findings – what will
5 - INCREASING COLLECTION AND SORTING 53 Building on the work and methodology of Breaking the Plastic desirable, as well happen without action, where would current efforts get us,
as economically
6 - FOOD-GRADE PLASTICS 55
Wave, this study analyses and quantifies the circularity levers and what are key interventions to enable a circular packaging
available to the packaging system today and shows that a transi- viable economy.
7 – RECYCLING MARKETS 59 tion towards a circular packaging economy in Germany is possible:
1.
Our analysis shows that plastic packaging waste generation
CONCLUSION62 can be lowered by up to 40%, while providing the same utility and At present, plastic packaging is a major contributor to plastic
performance as single-use packaging. Compared to business- consumption (27%), plastic waste generation (59%) and
GHG emissions (15.3 mt CO2eq p.a.).
APPENDIX63
as-usual, a system change scenario can reduce incineration rates
by 73% and cut virgin demand by 64%. By 2040, more than Despite high collection rates and an advanced Extended
68 mt CO2eq emissions and 20 mt of virgin plastic could be saved – Producer Responsibility (EPR), the German plastic
REFERENCES78 more than six years of annual consumption for plastic packaging. packaging system is highly linear, with 51% being incinerated,
4
BURNING QUESTIONS – PATHWAYS TO A CIRCULAR PLASTIC PACKAGING SYSTEM IN GERMANY
PREFACE3 18% exported, and 10% recycled open-loop, while only 20% is
closed-loop recycled. Recycled content use in packaging remains
plastic packaging waste generation by only 5% by 2040,
waste-to-energy incineration (WtEI) by 15%, and increase
low (11%), with a significant share coming from post-industrial virgin plastic consumption by 4%, respectively (compared
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 sources. Equally, much of packaging recyclates (63%) is used in to 2019). We show that, unfortunately, current policies and
other sectors, such as automotive or construction. commitments are not sufficient to enable a transition towards
INTRODUCTION 9 a circular packaging economy.
2. 4.
In a business-as-usual scenario (BAU), a moderate plastic packaging
OUR LINEAR PACKAGING ECONOMY 11 growth is expected (0.6% p.a., or 14% by 2040). A systems change is within reach:
However, consumption trends including to-go and convenience Our analysis shows that by pulling all levers that are at our
SYSTEM CHANGE SCENARIO21 risk perpetuating the current linear trajectory beyond the in- disposal today, we can lower overall plastic packaging waste
creases in recycling capacity. Compared to 2019, waste (+13%) generation by 40%, reduce virgin consumption by 64%,
SYSTEM INTERVENTION and waste-to-energy incineration volumes (+24%) are expected and waste-to-energy incineration by 73% in 2040. Such a
1 – ELIMINATE & MINIMIZE 33
to increase further, despite a growth in recycling volumes and systems change scenario would result in cumulated savings
also due to decreasing plastic exports. Under BAU, we estimate of 68 mt CO2eq, and deliver a system benefit of close to
2 - REUSE 37 that CO2eq emissions from plastic packaging production and 1bn Euro over BAU until 2040, the horizon of this study.
3 – SUBSTITUTION 44 waste management will grow, amounting to an estimated 329
4 - DESIGN FOR RECYCLING 49 mt CO2eq between 2019 and 2040. We estimate that in 2040
5 - INCREASING COLLECTION AND SORTING 53 emission from the product and end-of-life management of plastic To enable this systems change scenario, we have
6 - FOOD-GRADE PLASTICS 55
packaging will amount to over 17.2 mt of CO2eq per annum – the identified 7 core interventions:
5.
equivalent of almost 5% of the German GHG emission budget
7 – RECYCLING MARKETS 59 (375 mt in 2040) to stay under the 1.5 degrees threshold as Intervention 1 – Elimination and minimization of unnecessary packaging
defined by the Paris Accord. can result in a reduction of 8% of plastic waste, without significant
CONCLUSION62 negative consequence for people and the environment.
3.
The integration of elimination and minimization principles
Current commitments, including committed policy and voluntary industry
APPENDIX63
in the packaging design is required to achieve this potential.
initiatives, fall short of enabling the transition towards a circular Standards and guidelines, developed in collaboration between
packaging economy. policymakers and industry, the creation of transparency
REFERENCES78 If all commitments were completely implemented and achieved, concerning packaging usage are key enablers for realization of
they would increase overall recycling amounts, but reduce overall the lever.
5
BURNING QUESTIONS – PATHWAYS TO A CIRCULAR PLASTIC PACKAGING SYSTEM IN GERMANY
6.
PREFACE3 Intervention 2 – Reuse models are a significant lever to increase a better environmental footprint. This requires clear standards
circularity, providing plastic utility, while reducing plastic waste by and certifications of materials used, as well as labelling and
up to 23% by 2040 (909 kt). consumer education.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 By leveraging its history of reuse and deposit-return systems,
8.
Germany is ideally positioned to scale reuse systems and drive
INTRODUCTION 9 circularity. We have identified three core areas to maximize Intervention 4 – Design for recycling can significantly increase closed-
the impact of reuse models: loop recycling, improving both yield and value of recyclates.
OUR LINEAR PACKAGING ECONOMY 11
Phasing out multi-polymer materials alone can increase the
• Food-grade bottles (395 kt) output of mechanical closed-loop recycling by 185 kt (30%).
• Transport packaging and e-commerce (192 kt) Design for recycling is not a once-off effort, but a continuous
SYSTEM CHANGE SCENARIO21 • Reuse and refill concepts in retail supermarkets (167 kt) process of improvement, that needs to be adequately incentiv-
ized. As such, transparency on recyclability and a roadmap of
SYSTEM INTERVENTION Given a history of unachieved reuse targets in Germany, a increasingly ambitious D4R-Standards could:
1 – ELIMINATE & MINIMIZE 33
number of drivers could be considered including clear time-
lines, implementation measures or sanctioning mechanisms i) reduce packaging complexity and enable a
2 - REUSE 37 for failure to achieve targets. Measures could include a right high-quality and cost-effective recycling
3 – SUBSTITUTION 44 to return for multi-use bottles, retail space foreseen for refill
4 - DESIGN FOR RECYCLING 49 and reuse as planned for other EU countries and internalizing ii) provide a clear time horizon and expectations
5 - INCREASING COLLECTION AND SORTING 53 externalities of single-use plastic bottles such as a plastic for brands.
6 - FOOD-GRADE PLASTICS 55
tax on single use bottles. Similar approaches to increase the
9.
market penetration of reuse systems are possible for the
7 – RECYCLING MARKETS 59 e-commerce sector. Intervention 5 – Improving separation at source and high-quality sorting
to improve efficiency and output of the recycling system.
7.
CONCLUSION62 Despite a relatively high collection rate, incorrect separation
Intervention 3 – Substituting single-use plastic packaging with paper, by consumers continues to be a challenge. Our analysis shows
coated paper or biobased material can play a role for specific applications:
APPENDIX63
that increasing collection for recycling rates from 75% today
Substitution is particularly relevant for applications that to 85%, while reducing sorting losses in the recycling process
cannot be eliminated or reduced, and for which contamination from 18% to 10%, could increase closed-loop recycling outputs
REFERENCES78 compromises recyclability. We estimate that up to 365 kt (9%) by 100 kt (22%) and open-loop recycling outputs by 42 kt (6%)
of single-use plastic can be substituted with materials that have in 2040. Standardizing collection for recycling systems, e.g.,
6
BURNING QUESTIONS – PATHWAYS TO A CIRCULAR PLASTIC PACKAGING SYSTEM IN GERMANY
PREFACE3 Gelber Sack, as well as campaigns to raise consumer awareness
and providing clear on-packaging recycling instructions are be-
chemical recycling could provide a viable option to increase
FG packaging circularity in the absence of a changing EFSA
ing discussed to increase both collection for recycling rates and regulation. We estimate the potential for chemical recycling
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 reduce sorting losses. of FG packaging between 253 and 498 kt in 2040.
10. 11.
INTRODUCTION 9
Intervention 6 – New regulation and technologies to enable closed-loop Intervention 7 – Developing demand-side standards, incentives and market
recycling of food grade plastics, while protecting health and safety norms, including recyclate standards and recycled content incentives.
OUR LINEAR PACKAGING ECONOMY 11 of the consumer. Our interviews revealed that resolving this stalemate could
Food grade (FG) plastics represent one of the most challenging be achieved through
SYSTEM CHANGE SCENARIO21 application groups: they must rightfully adhere to strict health
and safety requirements, they require the most complex barriers i) recyclate standards, which define quality, reduce
SYSTEM INTERVENTION and coatings to protect the packaged good, and they are often both transaction cost and legal risks, as well as
1 – ELIMINATE & MINIMIZE 33
the most contaminated after use. Even after the reduction and
substitution interventions, our analysis reveals that 593 kt of ii) market incentives encouraging the use of recycled
2 - REUSE 37 FG waste remains, which can either be ‘down-cycled’ to non-FG content.
3 – SUBSTITUTION 44 applications or incinerated. The circularity of FG packaging can
4 - DESIGN FOR RECYCLING 49 be increased through two principal levers: In the German context, the envisioned eco-modulation of the
5 - INCREASING COLLECTION AND SORTING 53 EPR fees and the amendment of Paragraph 21 is seen as an
6 - FOOD-GRADE PLASTICS 55
Standards and separated collection for FG rigids: A review and opportunity to resolve these challenges and set the economic
update of the FG regulation by the European Foods and Safety incentives for the use of recyclates, stimulate demand, enable
7 – RECYCLING MARKETS 59 Agency (EFSA) could create the opportunity to use FG recyclates investments and level the economic playing field.
as inputs for FG packaging, and thus enable a ‘like to like’
CONCLUSION62 recycling. As a precondition, this would require separated waste The transition to a circular packaging economy is not an end in
streams of FG packaging, for example through a DRS system. itself, but a means for reducing the economic, environmental
APPENDIX63
We estimate that 329 kt could be collected through such a and social costs of plastic packaging waste. This report offers
system, recycled, and used as inputs for FG packaging. three contributions to this transition:
REFERENCES78 Scaling up chemical recycling: While the technology is still matur- While the challenges of a linear plastic economy and the need
ing – cost and GHG emissions require further assessment – to transition towards circularity have been rehearsed by many,
7
^
BURNING QUESTIONS – PATHWAYS TO A CIRCULAR PLASTIC PACKAGING SYSTEM IN GERMANY
An ambitious but realistic vision
PREFACE3 this report, for the first time, quantifies the levers and shows
how such a vision can become reality. It details an ambitious,
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4
but realistic scenario, achievable with the enabling strategies,
68 million tonnes
policies, and technologies we currently have at hand.
of greenhouse gases not emitted
INTRODUCTION 9 This report also shows that there are no silver bullets. We will
40% 60% 70%
not recycle our way out of this crisis, nor will reduction efforts
OUR LINEAR PACKAGING ECONOMY 11
alone be sufficient to transition towards circularity. Both up-
stream and downstream solutions need to be employed con- reduction of less virgin less waste
currently and at scale. The report shows that pursuing systems overall waste consumption to energy-
SYSTEM CHANGE SCENARIO21 change is a highly worthwhile endeavour – we can reduce virgin volumes incineration
plastic consumption, waste generation and GHG emissions,
SYSTEM INTERVENTION We close with
More than 20 million tonnes
enabling local value and job creation, resulting in an overall net
a call for action: A
1 – ELIMINATE & MINIMIZE 33
system benefit of ~1bn Euro compared to BAU. The systems
circular packaging change scenario is not yet a scenario that reaches net zero cumulated virgin saving – more than 6 years of annual,
2 - REUSE 37 system is possible, GHG emissions by mid-century, in line with the Paris Climate single-use plastic packaging produciton
3 – SUBSTITUTION 44 but it requires Accord and therefore requires additional interventions, for
4 - DESIGN FOR RECYCLING 49 courage, ambition example the decarbonization of plastic production – but it is a
Net system benefit of close to
5 - INCREASING COLLECTION AND SORTING 53 and bold action key building block in Germany’s transition.
6 - FOOD-GRADE PLASTICS 55 Finally, we close with a call for action. We show that a circular
1 bn euros
7 – RECYCLING MARKETS 59 packaging system is possible and highly beneficial; however,
it requires courage, ambition and bold action, by all actors
CONCLUSION62 in the value chain – technology providers, policy makers and
investors. By walking the path of systems change, Germany
APPENDIX63
can enable a transition, but also become the blueprint of a
circular plastics economy transition in Europe, and for
developed countries at large, setting an example that it can
REFERENCES78 be done and paving the way for others to follow suit.
8
BURNING QUESTIONS – PATHWAYS TO A CIRCULAR PLASTIC PACKAGING SYSTEM IN GERMANY
Introduction
PREFACE3 Over the last 60 years, plastics and plastic packaging have become near ubiquitous in our
everyday life and essential to the economy.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 This growth is owed to its phenomenal properties – plastics are While plastic pollution is concentrated in the global south, plastic
durable, lightweight, cheap to produce and easy to process. Plastic packaging systems in the global north, including Germany, equally
INTRODUCTION 9 packaging fulfils critical functions without which modern life would remain fundamentally linear:9
be impossible: Plastic packaging protects goods and extends the
In Germany, 27%
of plastic
OUR LINEAR PACKAGING ECONOMY 11
shelf-life of perishables, it reduces transport cost and emission,
and ensures sterile healthcare equipment. consumption is for packaging,
but plastic packaging contributes close to
SYSTEM CHANGE SCENARIO21 On a global While the utility of plastic packaging is undisputed, the way we 60% of plastic waste.
level, plastic currently produce, consume, and dispose of plastics often has cata-
SYSTEM INTERVENTION pollution is strophic implications. On a global level, plastic pollution is now With 38 kg
now abundant
1 – ELIMINATE & MINIMIZE 33
abundant throughout the world, from the beaches of Asia to the annual packaging consumption per capita, Germany is
throughout depths of the Mariana trench and the remote corners of Antarctica. well above the European average10 and, while Germany is
2 - REUSE 37 the world Worse, unless we fundamentally reconfigure the plastics system, praised for its high collection and utilization rates, only
3 – SUBSTITUTION 44 from a linear to a circular system, the impacts are expected to 11% of plastic packaging is made from recycled content.9
4 - DESIGN FOR RECYCLING 49 worsen dramatically over the next decades:6
5 - INCREASING COLLECTION AND SORTING 53 By 2040,
Most packaging waste is waste-to-energy incinerated, exported or
6 - FOOD-GRADE PLASTICS 55
open-loop recycled. Given the characteristics of the German plastic
global plastic production is forecast 95% packaging system, the focus for a system change scenario is on circular-
7 – RECYCLING MARKETS 59 to double, plastic leakage to the of the packaging value is ity of plastics, rather than on preventing leakage to the environment.
environment to triple and plastic lost after one short use Increasing awareness and attention to the problem of plastic pollution
CONCLUSION62 stocks in the ocean to quadruple. cycle, the equivalent of brought packaging into focus, both globally and locally. The challenges
$80-120 bn per annum.7 associated with single-use plastic packaging are now the topic of lively
On a global level,
APPENDIX63
public debates, the subject of a host of policy initiatives and industry
it is estimated that the plastics industry contributes commitments. They all are critical to avoid the potentially catastrophic
up to 19% of the available carbon budget to remain implications outlined above, and to enable transition from a linear to
REFERENCES78 below the agreed upon 1.5 degrees threshold of the a circular plastics economy, where material is kept in the loop, reused,
Paris Climate Accord.8 recycled, substituted, or, ideally, not needed altogether.
9
BURNING QUESTIONS – PATHWAYS TO A CIRCULAR PLASTIC PACKAGING SYSTEM IN GERMANY
PREFACE3 The need for urgent, concerted action has been made abundantly clear.
Equally, the characteristics of a better, more sustainable, and circular
the potentials, challenges, and trade-offs of a circular economy for
plastic packaging in Germany. As such, this report transposes and
packaging economy have been defined, for example through the semi- adapts the global, archetype-based methodology of BPW to a country-
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 nal work of the Ellen MacArthur Foundation. This report offers a per- level. Equally, this report quantifies the vision and recommendations
spective on the missing piece of the puzzle – how such a transition could developed by the CEID and provides a roadmap for such a transition.
INTRODUCTION 9 be achieved in Germany, what it would take, and what the implications
would be. It quantifies the utility plastic packaging provides, estimates
Specifically, this study seeks to provide insights and solutions to a
OUR LINEAR PACKAGING ECONOMY 11
the volumes and potential to transition to a circular model, and assess-
es the economic, environmental, and social impacts of the solutions, set of six strategic questions:
including GHG emission, capital and operational expenses, and jobs.
SYSTEM CHANGE SCENARIO21 1. What is the trajectory of business-as-usual?
By doing so, this report builds upon the foundational work of the global 2. Where would current commitments and policy get us to?
SYSTEM INTERVENTION study, Breaking the Plastic Wave (BPW)6, the accompanying Science 3. Do we have the technological solutions to transition to-
1 – ELIMINATE & MINIMIZE 33
publication11, as well as the Packaging Working Group of the Circular wards a circular plastics economy?
Economy Initiative Germany (CEID).12 4. Is the solution attractive for citizens, business, govern-
2 - REUSE 37 ments, and the environment?
3 – SUBSTITUTION 44 BPW pioneered the ‘wedges’ methodology used in this analysis and 5. What does it cost, what are the benefits for the environ-
4 - DESIGN FOR RECYCLING 49 developed the most comprehensive fact base and analysis to quantify ment and communities?
5 - INCREASING COLLECTION AND SORTING 53 and offer solutions to the plastics crisis to date. The CEID laid the 6. What are the enablers – and challenges – to such a
6 - FOOD-GRADE PLASTICS 55
foundation for the Germany-specific lens, developed a vision, defined transition?
7 – RECYCLING MARKETS 59
The study has the goal of providing decision-makers across govern-
CONCLUSION62 ment, industry, civil society, and academia with a new evidence base to
address the packaging waste challenge, assess impacts, and design solu-
APPENDIX63
tions. The aspiration is that the conclusions and recommendations from
this analysis will inform the thinking, discussion, and planning around
a systemic response to this systemic challenge, to enable a transition to
REFERENCES78 a circular plastics economy and to provide a first country-level roadmap
and thereby offer a blueprint for replication in other countries.
10Our Linear
BURNING QUESTIONS – PATHWAYS TO A CIRCULAR PLASTIC PACKAGING SYSTEM IN GERMANY
PREFACE3
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4
Packaging Economy
INTRODUCTION 9 Germany prides itself with high plastic packaging
waste collection rates, an advanced EPR and
OUR LINEAR PACKAGING ECONOMY 11
sophisticated deposit-return-scheme (DRS) for
SYSTEM CHANGE SCENARIO21 bottles and has a reputation for being a recycling
champion. Still, at least for plastic packaging,
SYSTEM INTERVENTION Germany is far from a circular economy.
1 – ELIMINATE & MINIMIZE 33
2 - REUSE 37
3 – SUBSTITUTION 44
4 - DESIGN FOR RECYCLING 49
5 - INCREASING COLLECTION AND SORTING 53
6 - FOOD-GRADE PLASTICS 55
7 – RECYCLING MARKETS 59
CONCLUSION62
APPENDIX63
REFERENCES78
11BURNING QUESTIONS – PATHWAYS TO A CIRCULAR PLASTIC PACKAGING SYSTEM IN GERMANY
Our Linear Packaging Economy
PREFACE3 mented and enforced, demand for virgin plastic would increase by
4%, whereas waste generation would decrease by 5% and waste-to-
energy incineration by 32%, compared to BAU in 2040. While recycling
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 rates would grow to over 50%, the growth is fuelled by open-loop
recycling. Given the near-exhausted recycling potential for PET and
INTRODUCTION 9 the dysfunctional markets for other recyclates, the recycling targets
are ambitious, and it is unclear whether they can be achieved given
OUR LINEAR PACKAGING ECONOMY 11
the current system.
The BAU and Current Commitment (CC) modelling results show that
SYSTEM CHANGE SCENARIO21 unless concerted and urgent action is taken, the German plastic pack- Hence, the transition to a circular packaging economy in Germany
aging system will remain linear for the next decades. Even though the faces a set of challenges:
SYSTEM INTERVENTION current German system exhibits very low rates of mismanaged waste,
• Current policy focuses on recycling targets, rather than a
1 – ELIMINATE & MINIMIZE 33
it is characterized by high degrees of waste-to-energy-incineration.
reduction of waste generation and stimulating reuse models.
Germany is one of the leading plastic waste exporters, low recycled con-
2 - REUSE 37 tent use in packaging, and even lower like-to-like recycling rates. Using
• The trends towards to-go and convenience products shifts
demand towards harder to recycle materials. This shift is
3 – SUBSTITUTION 44 an output-oriented definition of recyclingi, only 30% of the plastic pack- enforced by brand-driven packaging differentiation.
4 - DESIGN FOR RECYCLING 49 aging waste is effectively recycled within Germany, out of which 10% is • Use of recycled materials in non-food applications is limited
5 - INCREASING COLLECTION AND SORTING 53 open-loop recycled and only 20% replace demand for virgin plastic, the due to missing standards, recycling markets for non-PET
6 - FOOD-GRADE PLASTICS 55
majority of which is replacing demand in other sectors. Additionally, polymers are dysfunctional.
18% is exported for recycling. Assuming that all exported waste is indeed • The current recycling targets are ambitious, and their
7 – RECYCLING MARKETS 59 recycled, this would result in a nominal recycling rate of 48%ii. achievement would require significant additional measures,
such as increased separation at source, design for recycling
CONCLUSION62 In a BAU scenario, plastic utility demand is expected to grow by 14% as well as adoption of advanced sorting technology.
• Overall, current regulation is not enough to set Germany
over the next two decades, and the share of harder-to-recycle materials,
on a trajectory towards a circular packaging economy and
APPENDIX63
such as films or multi-layer materials, to increase from 45 to 48%.
requires the alignment of players’ incentives along the value
Incineration is projected to increase by 5%, effective in-country
chain and rewarding leaders.
recycling to 38% and the nominal recycling rate to decrease to 42%.
REFERENCES78 If all current policy and industry commitments were completely imple-
i A
n output-oriented calculation of recycling rates does consider losses during sorting and recycling as non-recycled and is less optimistic than an input-oriented view. The EU introduced an output-oriented
12 calculation method in Directive 2008/98/EC in 2019.
ii Assuming the nominal recycling rate is calculated as domestic recycling plus exportsBURNING QUESTIONS – PATHWAYS TO A CIRCULAR PLASTIC PACKAGING SYSTEM IN GERMANY
PREFACE3 Status Quo
In 2019, Germany processed 14.2 mt of plastic, of which 12.1 mt were German recyclers produced 1.9 mt of recyclate in 2019 from post-
consumed domestically. Of the domestic consumption, 3.2 mt were industrial and post-consumer waste, of which 24% were re-used for
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 packaging and other single-use products (SUP). Although packaging packaging products. However, it is noticeable that within the packaging
and SUP represent only 27% of domestic consumption, they contribute sector, only 11% (474 kt) of the input material currently consists of
INTRODUCTION 9 59% to plastic waste. Moreover, over the last 25 years, Germany’s plastic recycled plastics and the overwhelming majority of input is virgin
waste has more than doubled, growing from 1.5 mt in 2004 to 3.2 mt plastic. The 474 kt recyclate used for packaging consist of 54% recyclate
OUR LINEAR PACKAGING ECONOMY 11
in 2019. In comparison to other countries, German plastic packaging from post-consumer waste (PCR) and 46% is recyclate from post-
waste of 38 kg per person per annum is significantly higher than the industrial waste (PIR) which is outside the scope of this study.
European average of 32 kg.9,16–18
SYSTEM CHANGE SCENARIO21
SYSTEM INTERVENTION Figure 1: An overview of the plastics industry Figure 2: Recyclate processing and effective use per sector
1 – ELIMINATE & MINIMIZE 33
in Germany (2019) in Germany (2019)
2 - REUSE 37 Plastic consumption Post-consumer plastic waste Use of recycled material Recyclate use in packaging sector
3 – SUBSTITUTION 44
4 - DESIGN FOR RECYCLING 49 11%
5 - INCREASING COLLECTION AND SORTING 53
12% 15%
22% 27% 24%
6 - FOOD-GRADE PLASTICS 55 6%
7 – RECYCLING MARKETS 59
3% 11%
5% 12.1 mt 6%
5.3 mt 59% 1% 1.9 mt 3.2 mt
4% 2%
CONCLUSION62
5%
4%
8% 10%
24%
APPENDIX63
9%
43% 89%
REFERENCES78 Packaging Construction Automotive Electronics Household Goods Agriculture Other Recyclate use Virgin use
13 Source: SYSTEMIQ illustration, based on Conversio data9BURNING QUESTIONS – PATHWAYS TO A CIRCULAR PLASTIC PACKAGING SYSTEM IN GERMANY
PREFACE3 To understand the circularity of plastics, its ‘fate’, i.e., what happens to
it once packaging becomes waste, warrants a closer examination. Our
analysis reveals that while Germany exhibits near complete collection,
the utilization of the materials remains fundamentally linear:
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4
INTRODUCTION 9 Figure 3: Flows and volumes of German packaging plastics (2019)
OUR LINEAR PACKAGING ECONOMY 11 18% exported
10% open loop (0.62 mt)
recycled (0.36 mt)
SYSTEM CHANGE SCENARIO21 13% other sectors &
exports (0.43 mt)
SYSTEM INTERVENTION
1 – ELIMINATE & MINIMIZE 33
2 - REUSE 37
3 – SUBSTITUTION 44 5% packaging input
like-to-like (0.18 mt)
2% other packaging
48% recycled
(1.66 mt)
4 - DESIGN FOR RECYCLING 49
input (0.08 mt)
5 - INCREASING COLLECTION AND SORTING 53
6 - FOOD-GRADE PLASTICS 55 3.50 mt plastic
7 – RECYCLING MARKETS 59 3.21 mt post-consumer
plastic packaging waste
post-consumer
packaging waste
collected 51% Energy recovery (1.79 mt)
CONCLUSION62 0.29 mT waste imports
APPENDIX63 1% mismanaged
Source: SYSTEMIQ analysis, excluding post-industrial waste
REFERENCES78
14BURNING QUESTIONS – PATHWAYS TO A CIRCULAR PLASTIC PACKAGING SYSTEM IN GERMANY
PREFACE3 Business-as-Usual: Continuing the linear trajectory
Over the next 20 years, under a BAU scenario, Germany’s plastic
packaging utility demand will moderately increase. By 2040, the time
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 horizon of this study, total utility demand is expected to increase by
14%, from 3.2 to 3.7 mt. This corresponds to a conservative compound
INTRODUCTION 9 average growth rate of 0.6% over the next 20 years.iii The majority of
this increase is driven by growth in flexible mono-materials (0.7% Com-
OUR LINEAR PACKAGING ECONOMY 11
pound Average Growth Rate (CAGR)) and multilayer formats (1% CAGR),
whereas the contribution of rigid mono-materials (0.4% CAGR) and
bottles (0.4% CAGR) is much lower.
SYSTEM CHANGE SCENARIO21
SYSTEM INTERVENTION The most important plastic packaging demand and growth drivers are:
1 – ELIMINATE & MINIMIZE 33 • Rising per capita plastic packaging consumption: Driven
2 - REUSE 37 by GDP growth, large supply of cheap virgin plastic, and a
3 – SUBSTITUTION 44 shift to smaller households, smaller packaging units and
4 - DESIGN FOR RECYCLING 49 collective packaging of portioned units.
5 - INCREASING COLLECTION AND SORTING 53 • Shift to convenience and to-go and on-demand con- Opposing trends only partially compensate for this development:
6 - FOOD-GRADE PLASTICS 55
sumption: Driven by increasing out-of-home consumption,
convenience products (mainly in plastic packaging), more • Negative population growth (CAGR -0.1% by 2040);
7 – RECYCLING MARKETS 59 elaborate plastic closures, plastic transport packaging for • Healthy and sustainable conscious consumption;
businesses and a trend towards mail-order bags in the • Decreasing usage weights for dimensionally stable plastic
CONCLUSION62 mail-order business (e.g., clothing). packaging and films;
• Shift to low-value and harder-to-recycle packaging: An ex- • Strongly decreasing consumption of carrier bags (also due
APPENDIX63
pected “race to the bottom” for packaging, with a shift towards to substitution by paper carrier bags);
low-cost/low-value, hard-to-recycle/low value will lead to an • Substitution of plastic packaging by paper and paper
increased use of plastic materials that are difficult to recycle. composites
REFERENCES78
iii Eurostat database estimates that plastic packaging consumption grew by 1.4% per annum over the last five years, plastic packaging consumption grew by 1.4% per annum. Source18
15BURNING QUESTIONS – PATHWAYS TO A CIRCULAR PLASTIC PACKAGING SYSTEM IN GERMANY
PREFACE3 Figure 4: Increase in total volumes of plastic packaging
utility demand by 2040 mainly driven by flexible and
multi-materials (kt, BAU, 2019-2040)
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4
+14%
INTRODUCTION 9 3,651
174 38
3,212 116
OUR LINEAR PACKAGING ECONOMY 11
112
1,433
1,321
SYSTEM CHANGE SCENARIO21 830
714
SYSTEM INTERVENTION 907
1 – ELIMINATE & MINIMIZE 33
734
2 - REUSE 37 444 481
3 – SUBSTITUTION 44
2019 Rigid Flexible Multi Bottles BAU 2040
4 - DESIGN FOR RECYCLING 49 Rigid Flexible Multi Bottles
5 - INCREASING COLLECTION AND SORTING 53 Source: SYSTEMIQ analysis
6 - FOOD-GRADE PLASTICS 55
7 – RECYCLING MARKETS 59 Figure 5 shows the fate of plastic packaging waste. Contrary to the
plastic utility demand depicted in Figure 4, the fate of plastic packaging
CONCLUSION62 waste also includes imports and exports.iv
APPENDIX63
The system of plastic packaging waste in the BAU scenario is linear and
the increased amount of waste generated can only be partially compen-
sated by more effective and efficient recycling. Today’s nominal recycling
REFERENCES78 rate (in-country + exports) is 48% and will decrease to 42% by 2040.
iv P
lastic packaging waste= utility demand-reduce and substitute savings+waste imports-waste exports
16BURNING QUESTIONS – PATHWAYS TO A CIRCULAR PLASTIC PACKAGING SYSTEM IN GERMANY
PREFACE3 Figure 5: Fate of plastic packaging waste in BAU scenario
4.0 mt
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 CL Recycling
3.5 22% OL Recycling
INTRODUCTION 9 Chemical P2P
3.0 Exports
OUR LINEAR PACKAGING ECONOMY 11 15% Chemical P2F
2.5 IncinerationBURNING QUESTIONS – PATHWAYS TO A CIRCULAR PLASTIC PACKAGING SYSTEM IN GERMANY
PREFACE3 Figure 6: Fate of plastic packaging waste per material type in 2020 and 2040.
2020 2040
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4
Rigid 23% 21% 54% 2% 34% 5% 59% 2%
INTRODUCTION 9
Flex 19% 21% 58% 2% 29% 5% 64% 2%
OUR LINEAR PACKAGING ECONOMY 11 Multi 16% 21% 61% 2% 24% 5% 69% 2%
Bottles
SYSTEM CHANGE SCENARIO21 90% 10% 91% 9%
SYSTEM INTERVENTION Source: SYSTEMIQ analysis Recycle Exports Energy Recovery Mismanaged
1 – ELIMINATE & MINIMIZE 33
2 - REUSE 37 A BAU scenario will also result in continued, high GHG emissions. and policies analysed in the current commitments scenariov focus
3 – SUBSTITUTION 44 We estimate that by 2040 the plastic production and end-of-life plastic on increasing recycling, rather than on reduction of waste, or the
4 - DESIGN FOR RECYCLING 49 waste management will contribute almost 17.2 mt of CO2 emission, substitution of single-use plastics with other materials.
5 - INCREASING COLLECTION AND SORTING 53 the equivalent of almost 5% of the German GHG emission budget
6 - FOOD-GRADE PLASTICS 55
(375 mt in 2040) to stay under the 1.5 degrees threshold as defined by Within the reduction and substitution lever, current policies focus
the Paris Accord. These emissions are predominantly driven by virgin on small volume application groups, such as banning straws, while
7 – RECYCLING MARKETS 59 production, conversion, and incineration, whereas circular measures, large-volume applications groups such as bottles or B2B packaging
due to their relatively low emissions per ton and low volume, are only are either not addressed or not enforced. As a result, these policies
CONCLUSION62 a marginal contributor to overall emissions. only have a marginal impact on plastic packaging waste, reducing
overall waste generation by 5% relative to 2019.
Current Commitments: Increase in recycling, but continued growth
APPENDIX63 in waste generation Recycling is the main lever addressed by current commitments,
The increasing awareness and mounting public pressure, on regulators expected to increase to approximately 55% (Figure 7) and reducing
REFERENCES78 and businesses alike, has led to a range of policy and industry commit- the total volume of plastic packaging waste-to-energy incinerated by
ments to increase plastic packaging circularity. The current initiatives 15% in 2040 compared to today (Figure 9).
18 v See Annex Table 3 on the Current Commitments consideredBURNING QUESTIONS – PATHWAYS TO A CIRCULAR PLASTIC PACKAGING SYSTEM IN GERMANY
PREFACE3 Figure 7: Impact of CC on waste reduction and incineration (2019-2040)
4.0 mt 3%
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 2% Reduce Eliminate
3.5 Reduce NDM
INTRODUCTION 9 27% CL Recycling
3.0 OL Recycling
OUR LINEAR PACKAGING ECONOMY 11 Chemical P2P
2.5 Exports
SYSTEM CHANGE SCENARIO21 24%
Chemical P2F
2.0
Incineration
SYSTEM INTERVENTIONBURNING QUESTIONS – PATHWAYS TO A CIRCULAR PLASTIC PACKAGING SYSTEM IN GERMANY
PREFACE3 Figure 8: Current commitments lead to 4% higher virgin plastic packaging demand in 2040 vs today (kt)
176
367 68
+4%
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4
INTRODUCTION 9 3,321
2,954 3,077
OUR LINEAR PACKAGING ECONOMY 11
SYSTEM CHANGE SCENARIO21
Virgin plastic BAU growth in virgin Virgin plastic Reduce & Increased Virgin plastic
demand, 2019 plastic demand, 2019 demand, 2040 BAU Substitute CC recycled feedstock demand, 2040 CC
SYSTEM INTERVENTION
1 – ELIMINATE & MINIMIZE 33
2 - REUSE 37
3 – SUBSTITUTION 44 Figure 9: Current commitments lead to 15% less waste incinerated in 2040 vs today (kt)
4 - DESIGN FOR RECYCLING 49 176
5 - INCREASING COLLECTION AND SORTING 53 438
528
6 - FOOD-GRADE PLASTICS 55 -15%
7 – RECYCLING MARKETS 59
2,223
CONCLUSION62
1,758
1,519
APPENDIX63
Incineration, Growth in BAU Incineration, Reduce & Increased Incineration,
REFERENCES78 2019 2040 BAU Substitute CC recycled CC 2040 CC
Source: SYSTEMIQ analysis
20System Change
BURNING QUESTIONS – PATHWAYS TO A CIRCULAR PLASTIC PACKAGING SYSTEM IN GERMANY
PREFACE3
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4
Scenario
INTRODUCTION 9 A viable alternative – An integrated circular
plastics strategy for Germany
OUR LINEAR PACKAGING ECONOMY 11
SYSTEM CHANGE SCENARIO21 The System Change Scenario modelled in this study
offers a compelling pathway to a circular plastic
SYSTEM INTERVENTION packaging economy, including considerable social,
1 – ELIMINATE & MINIMIZE 33
economic, and environmental benefits to the German
2 - REUSE 37
3 – SUBSTITUTION 44 plastic packaging system.
4 - DESIGN FOR RECYCLING 49
5 - INCREASING COLLECTION AND SORTING 53
6 - FOOD-GRADE PLASTICS 55
7 – RECYCLING MARKETS 59
CONCLUSION62
APPENDIX63
REFERENCES78
21BURNING QUESTIONS – PATHWAYS TO A CIRCULAR PLASTIC PACKAGING SYSTEM IN GERMANY
PREFACE3 Comprised of seven system interventions across the entire plastics
value chain, the System Change Scenario demonstrates that we
Overcoming these challenges will require significant leadership
and collaboration, but the reward is equally attractive. Figure 10
have the necessary tools and technologies to transition to a circular below provides an overview of the fate of plastic packaging, both
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 packaging economy: simply, it is not the lack of technical solutions in a BAU and in a System Change Scenario and illustrates the
that prevents a circular plastic economy in Germany, but rather potential for impact.
INTRODUCTION 9 insufficiently aligned regulatory frameworks, business models,
incentives, and funding mechanisms across the value chain.
OUR LINEAR PACKAGING ECONOMY 11
SYSTEM CHANGE SCENARIO21 Figure 10: Fate of plastic packaging waste in BAU vs System Change Scenario
SYSTEM INTERVENTION BAU Scenario System Change Scenario
1 – ELIMINATE & MINIMIZE 33 4.0
mT
4.0
mT
2 - REUSE 37 8% Reduce Eliminate
3 – SUBSTITUTION 44
3.5 22% 3.5 Reduce NDM
4 - DESIGN FOR RECYCLING 49 Substitute Paper
3.0 3.0 23%
5 - INCREASING COLLECTION AND SORTING 53
16% Substitute
2.5 2.5 8%
0% Compostables
6 - FOOD-GRADE PLASTICS 55
4% 1%
0%
2.0 2.0 CL Recycling
7 – RECYCLING MARKETS 59
20%
OL Recycling
1.5 1.5
14% Chemical P2P
56%
CONCLUSION62 1.0 1.0
7%
0%
Exports
3%
0.5 0.5 Chemical P2F
APPENDIX63
15%
Incineration
0.0 2% 0.0 1%
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Mismanaged
REFERENCES78 Source: SYSTEMIQ analysis
22BURNING QUESTIONS – PATHWAYS TO A CIRCULAR PLASTIC PACKAGING SYSTEM IN GERMANY
PREFACE3 Figure 11: Comparison of system outcomes between Business-as-usual and the System Change Scenario
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4
2040 Business-as-usual vs. System Change Scenario
INTRODUCTION 9
Plastic demand after R&S 3,651k tons 2,054k tons
OUR LINEAR PACKAGING ECONOMY 11
Fossil-based plastic production 3,321k tons 1,212k tons
SYSTEM CHANGE SCENARIO21
A more
sustainable Incineration 2,212k tons 601k tons
SYSTEM INTERVENTION
1 – ELIMINATE & MINIMIZE 33 and circular
2 - REUSE 37 plastic Recycling 1,492k tons 1,595k tons
3 – SUBSTITUTION 44 industry
17.2Mt CO2eq 10.2Mt CO2eq
4 - DESIGN FOR RECYCLING 49 GHG
5 - INCREASING COLLECTION AND SORTING 53
6 - FOOD-GRADE PLASTICS 55 Mismanaged plastic 65k tons 41k tons
7 – RECYCLING MARKETS 59
Cost 781mn EUR -130mn EUR
At no trade off
CONCLUSION62 for society Jobs 44.5k jobs 45.1k jobs
APPENDIX63
Source: SYSTEMIQ analysis
REFERENCES78
23BURNING QUESTIONS – PATHWAYS TO A CIRCULAR PLASTIC PACKAGING SYSTEM IN GERMANY
PREFACE3 As depicted in Figure 11, the System Change Scenario provides considerable benefits at no trade-off to society.
Figure 11 is based on following definitions:
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4
• Plastic demand: Total amount of plastic utility projected in • Mismanaged plastic: Total amount of plastic waste
INTRODUCTION 9 2040 minus effect of reduce & substitute interventions. generated and littered in Germany.
• Fossil-based plastic production: Total amount of virgin • Costs: Value of net costs incurred in 2040 (CAPEX and
OUR LINEAR PACKAGING ECONOMY 11
plastic production in 2040. OPEX) caused by all waste generated in Germany (including
• Incineration: Total amount of waste incinerated in Germany revenue streams) and and covering the entire the entire
in 2040 (excluding imports). plastic value chain (i.e., plastic production, packaging con-
SYSTEM CHANGE SCENARIO21 • Recycling: Total amount of waste recycled in Germany version, collection, sorting, recycling and disposal including
or internationally from the waste generated in Germany export cost, as well as the same cost for substitute materi-
SYSTEM INTERVENTION including mechanical recycling and chemical conversion als, and estimated cost for the new business models).
1 – ELIMINATE & MINIMIZE 33
(but excluding plastic-to-fuel technology). • Job creation: Number of new direct jobs created in Germany
• GHG emissions: Total 2040 life-cycle assessment emissions in 2040, including in production, conversion, collection,
2 - REUSE 37 of all plastics (and substitutes), including production, con- sorting, mechanical and chemical recycling, incineration,
3 – SUBSTITUTION 44 version, collection, sorting, mechanical recycling, chemical landfill as well as new delivery models.
4 - DESIGN FOR RECYCLING 49 conversion and incineration.
5 - INCREASING COLLECTION AND SORTING 53
6 - FOOD-GRADE PLASTICS 55
7 – RECYCLING MARKETS 59
CONCLUSION62
APPENDIX63
REFERENCES78
24BURNING QUESTIONS – PATHWAYS TO A CIRCULAR PLASTIC PACKAGING SYSTEM IN GERMANY
PREFACE3 The fate of plastic packaging in different scenarios
Figure 12 compares the fate of plastic under the different scenarios closed-loop recycling, as well as Chemical C2P. As the figure shows,
modelled, as well as the circularity index in each scenario. The circu- the System Change Scenario (SCS) has the highest potential to
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 larity index is comprised of the reduce & substitute interventions, achieve a zero-waste circular plastic economy among all scenarios.
INTRODUCTION 9
OUR LINEAR PACKAGING ECONOMY 11
Figure 12: Plastic waste fate and circularity index under different scenarios
Fate by 2040 (% of plastic utility) Circularity
SYSTEM CHANGE SCENARIO21
SYSTEM INTERVENTION BAU 38% 4% 56% 2% 38%
1 – ELIMINATE & MINIMIZE 33
2 - REUSE 37 CC 4% 51% 4% 39% 2% 55%
3 – SUBSTITUTION 44
4 - DESIGN FOR RECYCLING 49 R&S 31% 9% 29% 4% 25% 1% 69%
5 - INCREASING COLLECTION AND SORTING 53
6 - FOOD-GRADE PLASTICS 55
7 – RECYCLING MARKETS 59 SCS 31% 9% 40% 0% 18% 1% 80%
CONCLUSION62 Recycling rates are defined as actually recycled material excluding processing losses. Circularity index is defined as the sum of the reduce,
Reduce
substitute and recycling lever.
Substitute
APPENDIX63 Recycle
Source: SYSTEMIQ analysis Exports
REFERENCES78 Dispose
Mismanaged
25BURNING QUESTIONS – PATHWAYS TO A CIRCULAR PLASTIC PACKAGING SYSTEM IN GERMANY
PREFACE3 Better for the environment: A reduction in resource use and in GHG emissions
In a BAU scenario, virgin plastic demand is projected to increase from of 59%, compared to 2019, respectively of 64% compared to a BAU
2,954 kt in 2019 to 3,321 kt by 2040. In contrast, our analysis of a scenario in 2040 (see Figure 13) – the cumulated virgin saving result-
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 System Change Scenario reveals that it is possible to reduce virgin ing from a SCS could amount to an estimated 20.9 mt by 2040 – or
plastic demand to 1,212 kt in 2040, which would represent a reduction more than six years of annual, single-use plastic packaging production.
INTRODUCTION 9
OUR LINEAR PACKAGING ECONOMY 11 Figure 13: Virgin demand can be reduced by up to 64% in 2040
SYSTEM CHANGE SCENARIO21 BAU (mt) Reduce & Substitute (mt) SCS (mt)
SYSTEM INTERVENTION 4 4 4
1 – ELIMINATE & MINIMIZE 33
2 - REUSE 37 3 3 3
3 – SUBSTITUTION 44
4 - DESIGN FOR RECYCLING 49 2 2 2
5 - INCREASING COLLECTION AND SORTING 53
6 - FOOD-GRADE PLASTICS 55 1 1 1
7 – RECYCLING MARKETS 59
0 0 0
2020 2030 2040 2020 2030 2040 2020 2030 2040
CONCLUSION62 3,321kt (91%) 1,883kt (92%) 1,212kt (59%)
APPENDIX63 330kt (9%) 172kt (8%) 842kt (41%)
REFERENCES78 Source: SYSTEMIQ analysisvi Reduce Substitute Recycle Remaining demand
vi *Recyclate from post-consumer packaging waste. Remaining demand can be met by post-industrial recyclate or virgin material.
26BURNING QUESTIONS – PATHWAYS TO A CIRCULAR PLASTIC PACKAGING SYSTEM IN GERMANY
PREFACE3 The analysis of both upstream and downstream interventions are of
critical importance to realize the reductions in virgin demand. Both
improved collection and PCR-use incentives – enable the activation
of the full virgin reduction potential: Without these, recycled content
the elimination, minimization as well as the reuse interventions lead use would remain limited, and the linear model prevail for much of
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 to direct reductions in virgin demand, but the management of the the plastic waste. It is only the combination of these interventions that
remaining waste would remain linear, characterized by high open loop drives a steep decline in virgin demand, as illustrated in Figure 14.
INTRODUCTION 9 and incineration rates. Only the ‘downstream’ interventions – D4R,
OUR LINEAR PACKAGING ECONOMY 11
Figure 14: Virgin plastic demand under Business-As-Usual and the System Change Scenario (kt)
SYSTEM CHANGE SCENARIO21
367
SYSTEM INTERVENTION 1,597
1 – ELIMINATE & MINIMIZE 33 -59%
2 - REUSE 37 3,321 512
3 – SUBSTITUTION 44 2,954
4 - DESIGN FOR RECYCLING 49 1,212
5 - INCREASING COLLECTION AND SORTING 53
6 - FOOD-GRADE PLASTICS 55 Virgin plastic BAU growth in virgin Virgin plastic Reduce & Increased Virgin plastic
7 – RECYCLING MARKETS 59 demand, 2019 plastic demand, 2019 demand, 2040 BAU Substitute recycled feedstock demand, 2040 SCS
Source: SYSTEMIQ analysis
CONCLUSION62
APPENDIX63
Our findings also show that the System Change Scenario can reduce Reduction of GHG emissions in the packaging system is primarily
GHG emissions by 41% in 2040, compared to Business-as-Usual – from driven by a reduction in both the production and conversion of virgin
17.2 to 10.5 million metric tons of CO2eq annually. Cumulatively, the plastic, which together account for close to 60% of total system emission,
REFERENCES78 System Change Scenario has the potential to save 68 million metric both in terms of per ton utility, as well as in absolute volume.
tons of CO2eq – or 21% compared to a Business-as-Usual scenario.
27BURNING QUESTIONS – PATHWAYS TO A CIRCULAR PLASTIC PACKAGING SYSTEM IN GERMANY
PREFACE3 While the System Change Scenario represents a significant improve-
ment over Business-as-Usual, the GHG reduction is not sufficient to be
and operations of plastic production, use, and disposal. Hence, further
decarbonization efforts are required that lie outside the system inter-
aligned with Germany’s ambition for net carbon neutrality by 2045.20 ventions modelled in this study. Potential measures can include further
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 However, this scenario assumes a constant energy mix and did not development of technologies that decarbonize the production of plastics,
include potential changes in increased renewable energy generation, the transport sector, as well as reducing overall consumption.
INTRODUCTION 9 electrification of vehicles or increasing energy efficiency in the production
OUR LINEAR PACKAGING ECONOMY 11
Figure 15: SCS can lead to 41% less GHG emissions in 2040 than in BAU (mt)
SYSTEM CHANGE SCENARIO21
GHG emissions in BAU vs System Change Scenario Cumulative GHG savings (mt)
SYSTEM INTERVENTION
1 – ELIMINATE & MINIMIZE 33 mT -21%
2 - REUSE 37 18
BAU
3 – SUBSTITUTION 44 16
68
4 - DESIGN FOR RECYCLING 49 14 -41%
5 - INCREASING COLLECTION AND SORTING 53 12
6 - FOOD-GRADE PLASTICS 55 10 SCS
7 – RECYCLING MARKETS 59 8 329
261
6
CONCLUSION62 4
2
APPENDIX63
0
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 BAU 2021-2040 SCS savings SCS 2021-2040
REFERENCES78 cumulative cumulative
Source: SYSTEMIQ analysis
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