Consistency case study: actions supporting Article 2.1c of the Paris Agreement in Colombia

 
CONTINUE READING
Consistency case study: actions supporting Article 2.1c of the Paris Agreement in Colombia
Climate-consistency of finance flows: iGST case study series

        Consistency case study: actions
        supporting Article 2.1c of the
        Paris Agreement in Colombia

        Alejandra Lopez Carbajal, Ximena Rojas Squella
        and Charlene Watson

      Climate-consistency of finance flows: iGST case study series
Consistency case study: actions supporting Article 2.1c of the Paris Agreement in Colombia
Consistency case study: actions
supporting Article 2.1c of the Paris
Agreement in Colombia

Alejandra Lopez-Carbajal, Ximena Rojas-Squella and Charlene Watson
March 2021
© iGST 2021
Cite as: Lopez Carbajal, A., Rojas Squella, X. and Watson, C. (2021) ‘Consistency
case study: actions supporting Article 2.1c of the Paris Agreement in Colombia’.
San Francisco and London: Climate Works Foundation and ODI. Part of ‘Climate-
consistency of finance flows: iGST case study series’.
    Download the report
    www.independentgst.org
Consistency case study: actions supporting Article 2.1c of the Paris Agreement in Colombia
About the iGST initiative and the Finance Working Group
         The Independent Global Stocktake (iGST) is a consortium of civil society actors working
         together to support the Global Stocktake (GST), the formal process established under the
         Paris Agreement to periodically take stock of collective progress toward its long term goals.
         The iGST aligns the independent community — from modelers and analysts, to campaigners
         and advocates — so we can push together for a robust GST that empowers countries to take
         greater climate action. www.independentgst.org
         The Finance Working Group (FWG) is an open partnership bringing together expert
         perspectives from the global north and south on the progress made towards financing climate
         action. Considering the provision of support to developing countries to mitigate and adapt to
         climate change and the consistency of finance flows with climate objectives, the FWG aims to
         support the UNFCCC GST process as well as independently benchmark the official GST. The
         group is co-chaired by Charlene Watson of ODI and Courtnae Bailey of Imperial College
         London.
The Finance Working Group (F Finance Working Group (FWG) is an open partnership bringing together expert
perspectives from the global north and south on the progress made towards financing climate action. Considering
the provision of support to developing countries to mitigate and adapt to climate change and the consistency of
finance flows with climate objectives, the FWG aims to support the UNFCCC GST process as well as
independently benchmark the official GST. The group is co-chaired by Charlene Watson of the Overseas
Development Institute and Courtnae Bailey of Imperial College London) is an open partnership bringing together
expert perspectives from the global north and south on the progress made towards financing climate action.
Considering the provision of support to developing countries to mitigate and adapt to climate change and the
consistency of finance flows with climate objectives, the FWG aims to support the UNFCCC GST process as
well as independently benchmark the official GST. The group is co-chaired by Charlene Watson of the Overseas
Development Institute and Courtnae Bailey of Imperial College London

         Acknowledgements
         The authors would like to thank all of the interviewees and reviewers for their invaluable input,
         including Giovanni Pabón, Mariana Rojas, Germán Romero, María Lemos, Maritza Florián,
         Santiago Briceño, Angela Rivera, Carolina Figueroa, Diana Barba, Isabel Mantilla, Anibal
         Pérez and Carlos Casallas. The authors would also like to thank the Finance Working Group
         members for their valuable contributions, in particular the steering group for ‘Climate-
         consistency of finance flows: iGST case study series’, including Julia Bingler (ETH), Courtnae
         Bailey (Imperial College London) and Stephan Kellenberger (WWF Switzerland), and
         reviewers Carolina Aguirre Echeverri, Manuela Ríos (MOFA, Colombia), María Laura Rojas
         (Transforma), Camila Cristancho (Transforma), Sarah Colenbrander (ODI), Chavi Meattle
         (CPI) and Hannah Roeyer (Climate Works Foundation). The authors are thankful to the
         Climate Works Foundation for providing the resources and support to make this case study
         possible. All omissions and errors remain the authors’ own.

         Climate-consistency of finance flows: iGST case study series
Consistency case study: actions supporting Article 2.1c of the Paris Agreement in Colombia
Consistency case study: Colombia                                                                                   March 2021

Contents

Acronyms .................................................................................................................................5
+ Executive summary ............................................................................................................6
+ 1. Why collate country actions supporting Article 2.1c of the
    Paris Agreement? ..........................................................................................................11
+ 2. Country framing: interpreting the consistency of finance flows
    at the country level ........................................................................................................13
   2.1 Key economic sectors facing climate-related risks in Colombia .................................. 14
   2.2 Nationally relevant targets for the consistency of finance flows .................................. 15
   2.3 The potential impact of Covid-19 on Colombia’s climate objectives............................ 16
+ 3. Public levers supporting the consistency of finance flows with
    low-emission, climate-resilient development pathways in Colombia .......................17
   3.1 Key actions considered to be consistent with climate objectives ................................ 17
   3.2 Key actions considered to be inconsistent with climate objectives.............................. 23
      3.2.1 Deforestation and agriculture in Colombia ............................................................ 23
      3.2.2 Energy transition in Colombia ............................................................................... 23
+ 4. Private sector actions towards the consistency of finance flows with
    low-emission, climate-resilient development pathways ............................................26
   4.1 Colombia’s private sector and market structure .......................................................... 26
   4.2 Bank lending ................................................................................................................ 31
   4.3 Bond markets .............................................................................................................. 31
   4.4 Insurance sector .......................................................................................................... 33
   4.5 Listed equity ................................................................................................................ 34
   4.6 Private equity ............................................................................................................... 34
   4.7 Investment decision-making ........................................................................................ 35
+ 5. Conclusion ...................................................................................................................36
+ References ........................................................................................................................39

Climate-consistency of finance flows: iGST case study series                                                                             4
Acronyms

CCADI         Colombian Climate Asset Disclosure Initiative
CDM           Clean Development Mechanism
CGF           Financial Management Committee (Comité de Gestión Financiera)
ESG           environmental, social and governance
GHG           greenhouse gases
GST           Global Stocktake
iGST          Independent Global Stocktake
MRV           measurement, reporting and verification
NAMA          Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action
NDC           nationally determined contribution
SFC           Financial Superintendence of Colombia (Superintendencia Financiera
              de Colombia)
TCFD          Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures
UNFCCC        United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

Climate-consistency of finance flows: iGST case study series
Consistency case study: Colombia                                                       March 2021

+ Executive summary

The third long-term goal of the Paris Agreement, if operationalised, stands to have tremendous
impact. Article 2.1.c is a commitment from Parties to ‘mak[e] finance flows consistent with a
pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development’
(UNFCCC, 2015). This long-term goal recognises that we not only need an increase in finance
that supports climate action, but must also redirect the finance, both public and private, that is
locking countries into high-emission, low-resilience futures. It is only through meeting this third
long-term goal, and the very idea of consistency of public and private financial flows, that we
can also deliver on the two other long-term goals of the Paris Agreement, on adaptation and
mitigation. This goal is relevant to developing and developed countries alike, although it should
not detract from the obligation of developed countries to provide and mobilise climate finance
for mitigation and adaptation to countries that have not historically contributed to climate
change (Article 9, UNFCCC, 2015).
Article 14 of the Paris Agreement obliges Parties to assess collective progress toward the
purpose and long-term goals of the Paris Agreement, including Article 2.1c. The first of these
Global Stocktakes (GST) is to be completed in 2023. As of today, there is no formal United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) guidance on how to make
financial flows consistent with climate action. This is likely to hinder the assessment of
collective progress in the first GST. As appropriate transparency will ultimately build trust and
confidence for effective implementation of the Paris Agreement, it becomes critical therefore
that measurement and reporting of the consistency of finance flows towards low-emission,
climate-resilient development pathways is continuously increased. While interpretation might
vary across countries and stakeholders, country case studies are intended to be conversation
starters, highlighting progressive and best practice examples arising from these efforts.
Colombia is an upper-middle-income country (World Bank, 2020a) with steady economic
growth. Over the past decade, the economy grew by an average of 4.6% per year (Delgado
et al., 2020) and growth projected to continue at an average 2.9% per year towards 2050
(Bataille et al., 2020). This has helped the country to reduce poverty and increase social
security, and to become a member of the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and
Development (OECD) in 2020. Economic growth over the past decade has been linked to
growth in the mining and oil sectors, as well as to an increase in foreign investment and high
prices for oil and basic products. However, a higher income has also increased the demand
for fossil fuels, especially in the transportation, manufacturing and power generation sectors
(Calderón et al., 2016). Colombia’s economy remains highly dependent on natural resources,
which makes it particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change (Murillo, 2017), 1
and a high share of its current greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions come from agriculture,
forestry and other land use (AFOLU) (Gobierno de Colombia, 2015). These factors present
pressing social and economic challenges for the decarbonisation and climate-resilience
transition of the country. It is further foreseen that the recession due to the Covid-19 pandemic
will have a strong negative effect on poverty rates and on the overall economic performance
of the country. Gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to have fallen by 8.2% in 2020
(IMF, 2020) due to Covid-19, and a post-Covid-19 recession will have a direct impact on

1According to the National Unit for Risk Disaster Management, between 1998 and 2012, 90% of the country’s
emergencies were related to hydroclimatic events.

Climate-consistency of finance flows: iGST case study series                                           6
Consistency case study: Colombia                                                          March 2021

poverty rates, raising them by over 10% in the Latin American region (Cárdenas and Guzmán
Ayala, 2020).
Like most developing nations, Colombia’s early climate action focused on the elaboration of
National Communications (2001, 2010), as well as on the implementation of the Clean
Development Mechanism (CDM) 2 of the Kyoto Protocol followed by Nationally Appropriate
Mitigation Actions (NAMAs), 3 the latter two of which aimed to attract international resources
to domestic climate action. Nevertheless, in the past decade Colombia has seen an increasing
number of public and private climate actions, policies and investments. Among these, the most
relevant are the Climate Change National Policy (2017) and the Climate Change Law (2018),
which have enabled more specific institutional, financial and economic instruments (i.e. the
National Strategy on Climate Finance (2017), the Carbon Tax (2017), renewable energy
auctions (2019) and the Adaptation Fund (2010)). These recent policies and investments are
mostly driven by the implementation of the Paris Agreement, and in turn have led to the
adoption of a domestic long-term goal of reaching carbon neutrality by mid-century
(Presidencia de Colombia, 2019) 4 and an updated 2020 nationally determined contribution
(NDC) that has the goal of reducing Colombia’s GHG emissions by 51% by 2030 (Gobierno
de Colombia, 2020) (Figure 1).
The private sector has also started to lead actions to align its financing activities with a low-
emission, climate-resilient pathway. The banking sector has led the elaboration of a Green
Protocol (2017), in which government and private financial institutions join to make a more
sustainable and climate-resilient financial system; certified green bonds have been issued
since 2015; and the insurance sector leads the way in integrating climate risk into business
and investment decision-making and has developed climate scenario assessments of its
aggregate portfolio.
This case study finds a nascent process of alignment of Colombian public and private financial
flows with low-emission, climate-resilient development pathways (Figure 2 and Figure 3).
However, additional measures are required. In particular, there needs to be a shift away from
market dependence on fossil fuel production and exporting and from the continuing investment
in fossil fuels. This requires the promotion of a just transition of the energy sector, a transition
that enhances industrial competitiveness and modernisation of transport systems. A thorough
social and economic transformation to reduce agriculture- and deforestation-related
emissions, while ensuring economic development and poverty alleviation, access to energy
and rural development, with strong, active participation of the private sector, would also be
necessary. These measures ought to be in line with Colombia’s carbon neutrality goal and its
updated 2020 NDC.

2 From 2006 to 2017, Colombia registered 67 CDM projects (CDM Registry, 2020).
3 Between 2015 and 2016, Colombia elaborated 17 NAMAs for the agriculture, energy, transportation, industry,
waste, livelihoods and forestry sectors (MADS, 2016). Some of these NAMAs continue to be implemented, and the
coffee NAMA was integrated into Colombia’s 2020 updated NDC (Gobierno de Colombia, 2020).
4 As part of Colombia’s announcements during the UN Climate Action Summit held in September 2019.

Climate-consistency of finance flows: iGST case study series                                               7
Consistency case study: Colombia                                                          March 2021

Figure 1 Timeline of climate action in Colombia

Source: Authors’ own elaboration

It is important to note that this report corresponds to a high-level review 5 of Colombia’s
progress towards Article 2.1c. However, the research did not follow a census method or use
a statistically representative sample. In this sense, although the sources analysed may not
represent the universe of public and private financial flows in the country, the results do
provide a general overview and, hopefully, will help to initiate a conversation about the
consistency of these flows with climate objectives in Colombia.

5 The research comprised an extensive literature review, analysis of existing legislation and interviews with
key stakeholders.

Climate-consistency of finance flows: iGST case study series                                               8
Consistency case study: Colombia                                                                March 2021

Figure 2 Consistency of public finance flows with climate objectives in Colombia in
the context of wider finance flows

i
   Although there is no direct attribution of losses and damages to climate change, this particular La Niña event
had social and economic consequences to the country that continue to be addressed a decade after and which led
to the creation of the Colombian Adaptation Fund.
ii
    This includes the accounting of budgetary measures (39.8% federal budget, 38.5% municipal budget, 4.2%
departmental budget) plus financial resources coming from the General Royalties System and destined to be
climate finance (17.4%). The coverage of the federal budget may therefore overlap with the accounting of climate
finance from the national budget, but this cannot be analysed due to lack of detailed public information.
iii
     Average for the period 2011 to 2019. Of the $610 million, there is an annual average of $70 million for
mitigation and $300 million for adaptation; $240 million is cross-cutting. ‘Adaptation’ includes finance by the
Adaptation Fund. However, it does not represent the total amount of financing provided by the Fund ($2.25
billion) because since 2011 a significant amount of the Fund’s resources have been directed to La Niña post-
disaster management.
iv
    The national budget is negotiated for the full duration of each government, in this case 2019–2022.
v
    For the period 2016 to 2020 (as of November). These incentives are provided in the form of a 50% reduction in
the associated cost of rent for non-conventional renewable energy projects for up to 15 years, an exemption from
paying VAT (with a value of 19%) and a customs duty exemption for imported machinery for projects.
vi
    The national budget is negotiated for the full duration of each government, in this case for the period 2019 to
2022. In the budget, a specific amount is allocated to renewable energy, but lack of detailed public information
means this cannot be separated from fossil fuel finance.
vii
     Subsidies on petroleum have been annualised for the period 2014 to 2019, while subsidies for electricity and
gas are already accounted on an annual basis. Of the $6 billion, $5.4 billion is for petroleum, $0.6 billion is for
electricity and gas.
viii
     This system comprises revenues from fossil fuel exploration and production, resources that are in turn invested
in public projects, including climate finance. The royalties are reported biennially, hence an annual average is
presented for the period 2019 to 2020.
Source: Authors’ own elaboration

Climate-consistency of finance flows: iGST case study series                                                      9
Consistency case study: Colombia                                                           March 2021

Figure 3 Consistency of private finance flows with climate objectives in Colombia

Note: Bank lending loan portfolio correct as of December 2019; bond market issuances correct as of 15 December
2020; insurance sector investment portfolio value correct as of December 2018; listed equity market
capitalisation correct as of October 2019; cumulative private equity investments reported in the 2015–2019
period.
Source: Authors’ own elaboration

Climate-consistency of finance flows: iGST case study series                                              10
Consistency case study: Colombia                                                                 March 2021

+ 1. Why collate country actions
     supporting Article 2.1c of the
     Paris Agreement?

The long-term goal of making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low GHG
emissions and climate-resilient development is neither defined nor fully articulated under the
UNFCCC process. Nor has there been a place in the negotiations to discuss and develop the
concept of the climate-consistency of finance flows (Bodle and Noens, 2018) or any
requirements for Parties to the Paris Agreement to report on this consistency. 6 Furthermore,
the foundations of the GST do not have highly detailed provisions and, so far, allow ample
flexibility, including in how to take stock of collective progress towards Article 2.1c (Watson
and Roberts, 2019). Developing discussion on how to operationalise Article 2.1c can create
useful lessons and encourage further action, and it may also support a meaningful discussion
at the first of these GSTs in 2023 (UNFCCC, 2015). Despite the lack of clarity of the concept,
commitments to ‘align’ with the Paris Agreement are being made in both public and private
institutions. These emerging initiatives towards the alignment of finance flows with the Paris
Agreement are largely based on guiding statements (MDBs, 2018; Cochran and Pauthier,
2019). Unpacking how to fully operationalise these commitments on Paris alignment remains
work in progress (Carter, 2020). 7
Accountability under the Paris Agreement will fall upon governments. As such, there is a
rationale to focusing on the levers that public actors create for finance flows, both public and
private, by generating incentives and disincentives. Recognising that public flows alone are
not sufficient for a transition to low-emission, climate-resilient pathways, these public levers
could include financial policy and regulation, fiscal policy, public investment and information
instruments (GGBP, 2014; Watson and Schindler, 2017; Whitley et al., 2018) (Table 1).
However, a transformation of the financial system as a whole that is consistent with climate
action will still require additional regulatory, structural and capacity efforts for both public and
private flows.
The Independent Global Stocktake (iGST) (Box 1) can use its independence to work with a
diversity of actors across political and technical challenges. In this case, the challenge relates
to the progression of discussions on the consistency of finance flows with low-emission,
climate-resilient development pathways. This case study of action towards consistency of
finance flows in Colombia includes the concise and high-level early mapping of government-
led policy levers and, where feasible, private initiatives. Building on a framework of
government levers that can help to operationalise consistency (Whitley et al., 2018), this case
study identifies the financial policy and regulation, fiscal policy, public finance and information
instruments relevant to climate action, as well as different initiatives and consistency trends in
private flows that are already present in Colombia. It also highlights future challenges for the
country’s pursuit of consistency. The case study is intended to be a thought-provoker and
conversation starter.

6 It has, however, been suggested that countries could voluntarily choose to do so in their biennial transparency

reports (Whitley et al., 2018).
7 There are, however, a few examples of alignment that could be followed by financial institutions, e.g. the European

Investment Bank’s commitment to align all of its financing activities with the principles and goals of the Paris
Agreement by the end of 2020, and to dedicate 50% of its financing to climate action by 2025, while ensuring that
the other 50% is consistent with and does not undermine the EU’s climate mitigation and adaptation objectives
(EIB, 2020).

Climate-consistency of finance flows: iGST case study series                                                     11
Consistency case study: Colombia                                                       March 2021

Table 1 Government-led tools to encourage the consistency of finance flows with
climate ambitions

  Financial policies                                                               Information
                            Fiscal policy levers        Public finance
   and regulations                                                                 instruments
  (primarily influence       (primarily influence      (primarily influence      (primarily influence
  behaviour through           behaviour through       behaviour by shifting      behaviour through
      force of law)                 price)                financial risk)             awareness)
• lending                  • taxes                  • grants                  • certification and
    requirements           • levies                 • debt                        labelling
• accounting               • royalties              • equity                  • transparency
    systems                • price support or       • guarantees                  initiatives
• mandates of                   controls            • insurance               • corporate strategies
    supervisory            • public                 (from public pension      • awareness
    authorities                 procurement         funds, sovereign wealth       campaigns
• standards                • budget support         funds and public          • statistical services
• plans and                (including for           finance institutions)     • scenario analysis and
    strategies             establishment of                                       stress testing
• disclosure               public funds and                                   • standards
    requirements           finance institutions                               • plans and strategies
(where mandatory           and state-owned                                    • disclosure
and enforced)              enterprises)                                           requirements
                                                                              (where voluntary)
Source: Whitley et al. (2018)

Box 1 What is the iGST and the Finance Working Group?
The Independent Global Stocktake (iGST) is a data and advocacy initiative, led by the
ClimateWorks Foundation, that brings together climate modellers, analysts, campaigners
and advocates to support the Paris Agreement. The iGST is structured into four working
groups (covering adaptation, mitigation, finance and equity) with additional activities
undertaken by an umbrella group of iGST partners. The objective of the iGST is to positively
influence the official GST, by supporting information collection, technical assessment and
political consideration, as well as bolstering national, regional and subnational relevance in
the process.
The Finance Working Group (FWG) of the iGST is an open partnership that brings together
a wide range of expert perspectives from its members from the Global North and South.
Focusing on the finance-related aspects of the Paris Agreement, ‘finance’ as used by the
working group encompasses two core, interrelated topics. It considers both the provision of
support to developing countries to mitigate and adapt to climate change (Article 9), and the
consistency of all finance flows with climate objectives (Article 2.1c).
The ultimate goal of the FWG is to support more ambitious country pledges and domestic
actions by 2025, which will lead to substantial progress towards meeting all three of the long-
term goals of the Paris Agreement. To achieve this goal, the FWG’s long-term objective is to
have direct influence of the UNFCCC GST process, through the production of knowledge,
outreach and support for appropriate data inputs, and to support a benchmarking of the
official GST through the assessment of progress on financing the commitments to the Paris
Agreement. It will also support an active, independent civil society on the issues surrounding
the financing of climate action.

Climate-consistency of finance flows: iGST case study series                                        12
Consistency case study: Colombia                                                           March 2021

+ 2. Country framing: interpreting the
     consistency of finance flows at
     the country level

The Paris Agreement adopts a bottom-up, country-driven approach. It has shifted multilateral
negotiations away from a top-down, target-setting approach, so that countries themselves
define their own pathways to becoming low-emission, climate-resilient economies. For the
operationalisation and pursuit of consistency of finance flows and in the absence of predefined
criteria, this suggests there will be nationally-driven interpretations, but it also necessitates
transparency, whereby each country’s interpretation of ‘consistency’ can be scrutinised to give
it legitimacy. This further allows country progress to be acknowledged in light of common but
differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities.
This section outlines the relevant country and market contexts within which Colombia will need
to make finance flows consistent with a low-emission, climate-resilient development pathway
(see also Box 2).

 Box 2 Colombia at a glance

 Colombia is an upper-middle-income economy
 (World Bank, 2020a).
 Gross domestic product (GDP): $323.8 billion
 (World Bank, 2020b)
 GDP per capita: $6,432.4 (World Bank, 2020c)
 Population: 46 million (77.1% living in urban areas)
 Credit rating: BBB– (Fitch Ratings, 2020)i
 Poverty: 35.7% of Colombia’s population are in a situation of povertyi and 9.6% are in
 extreme monetary povertyii (DANE, 2020a)
 As of 31 December 2019, Colombia’s Consolidated General Balance for the national and
 territorial levels and the public sector had $381.1 billion (136.3% of GDP) in assets, $424.7
 billion (151.9% of GDP) in liabilities and $–43.66 billion (15.6%) in equity (Bohórquez
 Ramírez, 2020).
 Colombia is a Party to the UNFCCC, the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement, a Non-
 Annex I country under the UNFCCC and a member of the G77/China and the Independent
 Association of Latin America and the Caribbean (AILAC) negotiation group.

 i As of November 2020. The rating was downgraded from BBB in April 2019 due to ‘risks to fiscal consolidation
 and the trajectory of government debt, the weakening of fiscal policy credibility, and increasing risk from
 external imbalances (Fitch Ratings 2019).
 ii Poverty is defined as an income below the value in money that a given person requires monthly to acquire
 basic food, services and minimum goods to live (DANE, 2020c).
 iii Extreme monetary poverty is defined as an income below the value in money that a given person requires
 monthly to acquire basic food to live with a minimum calorific value of 2,105 for urban inhabitants and 2,079
 for rural inhabitants (DANE, 2020c).
 Source: Authors’ own elaboration

Climate-consistency of finance flows: iGST case study series                                              13
Consistency case study: Colombia                                                  March 2021

2.1 Key economic sectors facing climate-related risks in Colombia
In 2010–2011, the phenomenon of La Niña caused losses and damage totalling $6 billion,
equivalent to 2.2% of GDP. More than 3.2 million people were affected, 3.5 million hectares
(ha) were flooded and 845 main and secondary roads were closed throughout the country
(Gobierno de Colombia, 2015). Although it is difficult to attribute specific weather events to
climate change, it has been estimated that 88% of disasters in Colombia are related to floods,
droughts and mudslides (DNP, 2018), events that, according to climate change scenarios, will
most likely increase in frequency and intensity, representing a direct risk to the Colombian
economy and its population in the short and long terms.
Also, Colombia has a high dependence on fossil fuel exports, creating transition risks. In
the past 10 years, 60% of Colombia’s exports have been related to fossil fuels and extractive
industry products; in 2019 alone, exports of fossil fuels, particularly oil and coal, and products
of the extractive industries represented $22 billion (DANE, 2020b) (equivalent to 6.7%
of GDP).
Colombia’s electricity production has relatively low emissions due to a large share of
hydroelectricity production (76%) (Delgado et al., 2020). However, Colombia also has 38
operational fossil fuel projects, comprising four natural gas terminals, eight oil pipelines, three
gas pipelines and 23 coal-fired units (Browning et al., 2020) and is continuing to invest
in exploration for oil and gas, including $920 million in 2020 (70% onshore and 30% offshore)
(ACP, 2020). Oil and gas reserves are limited to a few years (6.3 and 8.1 years, respectively),
but coal reserves have a much longer horizon, being sufficient for the next 180 years
(CCADI, 2020a).
The largest share (58%) of Colombia’s emissions comes from deforestation and agriculture
(Gobierno de Colombia, 2015), followed by energy (38.5%) (Figure 4). Major drivers of
deforestation are the expansion of the agricultural frontier and the transformation of forest into
pastures for cattle ranching. In recent decades, illicit activities have been part of the driving
force behind deforestation, mainly through illegal cropping, mining, logging and land grabbing.
Deforestation and some agricultural practices are not only a source of risk, in increasing
climate change vulnerability, but could also contribute to climate change adaptation where
used efficiently and sustainably.

Climate-consistency of finance flows: iGST case study series                                    14
Consistency case study: Colombia                                                                           March 2021

Figure 4 Colombia’s GHG emissions by sector, 2016

Source: Our World in Data (https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions).

2.2 Nationally relevant targets for the consistency of finance flows
Colombia’s GHG emissions represent 0.41% of global emissions (Ge and Friedrich, 2020). In
its 2015 NDC, Colombia included a mitigation objective to reduce its GHG emissions by 20%
from the business-as-usual scenario by 2030, which could be increased to 30% emissions
reduction, conditional on international support. The 2020 updated version of Colombia’s
NDC includes an economy-wide mitigation objective to reduce its GHG emissions by
51% by 2030 (Presidencia de Colombia, 2020a). The NDC also includes 148 specific national,
sectorial and territorial mitigation measures 8 owned by governmental ministries, territorial
entities and companies – which may help to ensure budgetary provisions for their
implementation – and contemplates the elaboration of carbon budgets by 2023 at the latest.
It includes a goal to reduce the deforestation rate from 158,894 ha per year to 50,000 ha per
year by 2030 (Gobierno de Colombia, 2020), as well as a 40% emissions reduction objective
for black carbon by 2030. The updated NDC, which constitutes Colombia’s first Adaptation
Communication, includes detailed risk and vulnerability information and maps, as well as
specific sectorial and territorial goals to reduce vulnerability and increase adaptive capacity
through adaptation planning and governance, ecosystem-based adaptation, risk assessment
and management, and resilient infrastructure, and through monitoring and evaluation for
households and water, health, energy, trade, industry and tourism, agriculture and transport
(MADS, 2020). Through this Adaptation Communication, it is initially estimated that an annual

8 These measures relate to: energy (energy efficiency, fugitive emissions, generation and supply management);
cities and livelihoods (waste management, waste water management, sustainable construction); agriculture and
rural development (sustainable agriculture, cocoa, rice and coffee production); industry and tourism (energy
efficiency in industrial facilities, efficiency in brick kilns, fertilisers, cement production efficiency, logistics efficiency);
transportation (electric mobility, modernisation of freight vehicles, development oriented to transportation, train
transport); environment (ecosystem conservation and restoration, substitution of wood-burning stoves for efficient
cooking stoves, HFC reduction, deforestation reduction); and finance (carbon tax) (Gobierno de Colombia, 2020).

Climate-consistency of finance flows: iGST case study series                                                                 15
Consistency case study: Colombia                                                   March 2021

adaptation investment of 0.2% of GDP (approximately $600 million) is required up to 2030 to
cover Colombia’s finance adaptation gap (Gobierno de Colombia, 2020).
The government of Colombia estimates the total amount of investment needed in relation to
the 2015 NDC to be $2.07 billion by 2030 for mitigation alone (AILAC, 2020). Some mitigation
actions under the NDC are already included in the National Development Plan 2018–2022,
hence they rely, to a certain extent – at least during the implementation period of the Plan –
on the public budget for their completion. Further international cooperation in the form of
technical and financial assistance is still required for the fulfilment of the NDC, particularly now
that its ambition has been significantly increased, although there is no clarity on the amounts
required as the costs of specific measures have not yet been presented.
While Colombia’s national Climate Change Law (Congreso de Colombia, 2018a) provides
general guidelines to ensure that climate scenarios are integrated into public and private
finance planning (ibid.), this has been irregularly implemented, partly because the Law’s
regulatory framework is due to be agreed in 2021. The upcoming regulatory framework
constitutes a great opportunity to foster a more preventive approach to adaptation, different
from that of risk management. It will also enable a more consistent pathway in the use of public
and private finance for the implementation of the country’s NDC and its first Adaptation
Communication, as well as for future development planning processes that internalise climate
scenarios and associated physical, financial and transition risks for both public and private
entities.
Colombia has a long-term goal to reach carbon neutrality by 2050. A long-term
low-emissions strategy for the country is also currently being developed.

2.3 The potential impact of Covid-19 on Colombia’s climate objectives
In the second and third quarters of 2020, the economy contracted by 15.8% and 9%,
respectively, due to the Covid-19 pandemic (Gobierno de Colombia, 2020). Hence, a
2020–2022 Covid-19 recovery plan is being developed. The plan has five policy elements: job
creation, clean growth, support to vulnerable groups, agriculture and peace, and health, with
the investment of over $26 billion (around 8% of GDP) and the creation of 1 million direct and
indirect jobs. The plan includes health policy measures, plus the acceleration of 27 energy
projects for renewable energy and transmission (including nine wind, five solar, three
geothermal and one hydropower project, as well as nine transmission lines), the planting of
180 million trees, with incentives for silvopastoral production and agroforestry schemes that
have community support, and provisional increased non-conditional payments to vulnerable
groups (Presidencia de Colombia, 2020b). In particular, the renewable energy and
reforestation goals of this plan are intended to accelerate the country’s climate commitments
through the recovery package. However, the plan does not explicitly refer to the climate or
biodiversity crises, and it emphasises how the mining and energy sectors are central to
regaining productivity. Moreover, since early 2020, Colombia has committed at least $378.59
million to supporting different energy types through new or amended policies, of which at least
$374.17 million is destined for unconditional fossil fuels (oil and gas) and $4.42 million for
unconditional clean energy (Energy Policy Tracker, 2021). Therefore, a thorough follow up
to the implementation of the Covid-19 recovery plan would be necessary to assess the
consistency between these investment flows and the climate goals of the country and the
Paris Agreement.

Climate-consistency of finance flows: iGST case study series                                     16
Consistency case study: Colombia                                                  March 2021

+ 3. Public levers supporting the
     consistency of finance flows with
     low-emission, climate-resilient
     development pathways in
     Colombia

3.1 Key actions considered to be consistent with climate objectives
Climate change has gradually become an essential component of the development planning
processes in Colombia – particularly after the adoption of the Paris Agreement – which are
increasingly being guided by the overall objectives of reaching carbon neutrality by mid-
century and enhancing climate resilience in Colombia’s most vulnerable ecosystems, regions
and populations.
The Climate Change National Policy contemplates that Colombia’s NDC 2015, as well as
subsequent NDCs, need to be embedded within each National Development Plan (approved
every four years), with explicit sectoral and budgetary contributions towards their
accomplishment (DNP, 2018). The last three national development plans (for 2010–2014,
2014–2018 and 2018–2022) incrementally feature green growth and climate change. This
illustrates the integration of these issues into the country’s planning processes. The
2018–2022 National Development Plan includes concrete goals to: reduce deforestation by
30% relative to the business-as-usual scenario; double the existing railway infrastructure; and
increase the use of non-conventional renewable energy, to reach 2,500 MW (DNP, 2018),
which would represent growth from less than 1% to 10% of the energy mix (Ministerio de
Minas y Energía, 2020a). The Climate Change Law has also created a more complete
institutional setting within which to manage climate public policy, and has driven initial specific
actions, such as the Carbon Tax, the measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) system
for climate finance (Congreso de Colombia, 2018a) (which will also soon start tracking climate-
misaligned finance), and the future development of an emissions trading scheme.
Table 2 outlines in more detail the government-led actions that the Government of Colombia
is taking and which might be considered relevant to making finance flows consistent with low-
emission, climate-resilient development pathways. It should be noted that plans, policies and
regulations described in the context column in Table 2 are not specifically finance-related, as
per the ODI framework. However, the authors consider that this political framework forms the
basis of more specific actions for consistency of financial flows, therefore they have been
included.

Climate-consistency of finance flows: iGST case study series                                    17
Consistency case study: Colombia                                                                       March 2021

  Table 2 Government-led actions supporting consistency of finance flows in Colombia
Government             Context                                    Mitigation-relevant actions                                    Adaptation-relevant actions
lever                                                             Quantitative information         Qualitative information       Quantitative         Qualitative information
                                                                                                                                 information
Financial policy and   The Energy Plan 2050 (2016) aims           Carbon neutrality by 2050 goal   Renewable energy                                   The National Adaptation
regulation             to diversify the country’s energy                                           auctions were initiated in                         Plan (2011) was one of
                       resources and ensure a reliable                                             2019 as a way to facilitate                        Colombia’s first policy
                                                                  NDC 2020, with a mitigation
                       energy supply through greater use                                           clean energy investment and                        instruments. It defines for
                                                                  objective to reduce GHG
                       of non-conventional renewable                                               enable renewable goals in                          sectors and territories the
                                                                  emissions by 51% by 2030
                       sources of electricity (IEA, 2020).                                         an emerging market for non-                        main guidelines on
                                                                  (Presidencia de Colombia,
                       The Plan can be implemented                                                 conventional renewable                             prioritising actions that
                                                                  2020a)
                       through enhanced use of renewable                                           energy. These auctions                             reduce vulnerability and
                       energy auctions to ensure greater                                           have already helped                                including climate change
                       use of renewable sources of                                                 increase the use of non-                           and variability in their
                       energy.                                                                     conventional renewable                             planning processes. There
                                                                                                   energy to 1,500 MW (6% of                          are 11 territorial adaptation
                                                                                                   the energy matrix)                                 plans and sectorial plans.
                       The Climate Change National
                                                                                                   (Ministerio de Minas y                             The continuous
                       Policy (2017) has a 12-year
                                                                                                   Energía, 2020a).                                   implementation of these
                       timeframe within which climate
                                                                                                                                                      plans is envisaged in the
                       policy is to be regularly revised and
                                                                                                                                                      Climate Change Law
                       updated. Building upon previous
                                                                                                                                                      (Gobierno de Colombia,
                       policy instruments, it aims to
                                                                                                                                                      2011).
                       influence public and private
                       developmental decision-making and
                       mainstream adaptation and                                                                                                      NDC 2020, which
                       mitigation rationales at the territorial                                                                                       represents the first
                       and sectoral levels (Murillo, 2017).                                                                                           Adaptation
                                                                                                                                                      Communication, includes
                                                                                                                                                      detailed risks and
                       The Climate Change Law (Law
                                                                                                                                                      vulnerability information as
                       1931, 2018) was enacted as a way
                                                                                                                                                      well as specific sectorial
                       to establish the general regulatory
                                                                                                                                                      goals to reduce vulnerability
                       guidelines for climate action in the
                                                                                                                                                      and increase adaptive
                       country. It establishes a Financial
                                                                                                                                                      capacity (MADS, 2020).
                       Management Committee (CGFi) to
                       be in charge of coordinating and
                       facilitating a dialogue for public and
                       private climate finance actions and
                       to ensure the necessary flow of
                       resources for the implementation of
                       the Climate Change National Policy
                       (Congreso de Colombia, 2018a).

  Climate-consistency of finance flows: iGST case study series                                                                                                                        18
Consistency case study: Colombia                                                                     March 2021

Government         Context                                 Mitigation-relevant actions                                           Adaptation-relevant actions
lever                                                      Quantitative information              Qualitative information         Quantitative         Qualitative information
                                                                                                                                 information
Fiscal policy      The implementation of the Carbon        Carbon Tax:                           Carbon Tax Law 1819,
                   Tax created a national voluntary        - tax of ~$5/tonne of CO2 on          adopted in 2016, came into
                   carbon market by certifying net         fossil fuels (except coal) in place   force in 2017 (Presidencia
                   emission reductions achieved            since 2017 (started at                de Colombia, 2017).
                   through mitigation projects in          $3.9/tonne of CO2)ii
                   Colombia, mostly in the forest
                                                           - cumulative carbon revenue           The Ministry of Finance is
                   sector (MADS, 2017).                    ~$367 million, as of July 2020        currently working on the
                                                           - covers 27% of Colombia’s            issuance of green
                   Revenues generated by the Carbon        GHG emissions (DIAN, 2020),           sovereign bonds to
                   Tax are to be transferred to the fund   mainly from road transportation       diversify its debt
                   Colombia in Peace, where 70% are                                              management through green
                                                           - increases every February, in
                   directed to the peace process and       line with the inflation rate plus     investments, which could
                   30% to environmental action                                                   enhance the visibility of its
                                                           1% (MADS, 2017).
                   (Congreso de Colombia, 2018b).                                                green bonds market (CBI,
                                                                                                 2020).
                                                           Between 2016 and 2020 (as of
                   It will be important to see whether     November), the Ministry of
                   the Carbon Tax is expanded to
                                                           Energy has provided economic
                   include coal or other GHGs, and
                                                           incentives to renewable
                   how it relates to the upcoming          energy projects totalling $46.2
                   national emissions trading scheme
                                                           million (UPME, 2020)iii which
                   and/or is used for the
                                                           represents an average annual
                   implementation of the International
                                                           amount of $11.5 million.
                   Civil Aviation Organization’s
                   compensation scheme (CORSIA)
                   and Article 6-derived markets.

  Climate-consistency of finance flows: iGST case study series                                                                                                                  19
Consistency case study: Colombia                                                                 March 2021

Government         Context                               Mitigation-relevant actions                                    Adaptation-relevant actions
lever                                                    Quantitative information             Qualitative information   Quantitative                   Qualitative information
                                                                                                                        information
Public finance     A Climate Finance National            As part of the MRV system for                                  Between 2011 and 2019,         Decree 4819 for the
                   Strategy was presented in 2017        climate finance, it has been                                   public domestic finance        creation of the Adaptation
                   with the view to identify economic    estimated that between 2011                                    for adaptation totalled        Fund, 2010, which aimed to
                   and financial instruments that can    and 2019, public domestic                                      $2.8 billion, of which         address the reconstruction
                   be used to advance climate action,    financeiv destined for climate                                 39.4% came from the            and social and economic
                   as a general guideline for the work   action totalled $5.6 billion, of                               Colombian Adaptation           recovery after the 2010–
                   of the CGF (CGF 2017).                which $0.66 billion was                                        Fund for projects directly     2011 La Niña events
                                                         destined for mitigation finance                                related to adaptation.         (Pineda Tellez, 2019).
                                                         and $2.3 billion for cross-
                                                         cutting finance (mitigation and                                                               Over time, this Fund has
                                                                                                                        Over the same period, the
                                                         adaptation) (DNP, 2020).                                       Adaptation Fund allocated      increasingly focused its work
                                                                                                                        a total of $2.25 billion to    on mainstreaming an
                                                         Average annual public finance                                  address the direct effects     approach that involves
                                                         for climate action is estimated at                             of the 2010–2011 La Niña       increasing the resilience and
                                                         $0.61 billion, equivalent to                                   events in affected areas,      reducing the vulnerability of
                                                         0.15% of Colombia’s GDP                                        directed to the health,        municipalities, communities
                                                         (CGF, 2017). v                                                 infrastructure (livelihoods,   and infrastructure that are
                                                                                                                        transportation, water and      being financed for recovery
                                                                                                                        sanitation, and education),    or reconstruction. The
                                                         On the other hand, the national
                                                                                                                        economic recovery and          approach uses ecosystem-
                                                         budget 2019–2022 provides
                                                                                                                        environment sectors            based and/or community-
                                                         $3.3 billion for the
                                                                                                                        (Pineda Tellez, 2019).         based adaptation, including
                                                         environment sector, which can
                                                                                                                                                       through several macro-
                                                         be considered Paris-aligned
                                                                                                                                                       projects directly related to
                                                         (1.15% of the total budget), and
                                                                                                                                                       structural and social
                                                         an additional $9.6 billion (3.39%)
                                                         may be related to climate action                                                              adaptation.vi
                                                         in regard to sustainable
                                                         transport, water infrastructure
                                                         and sanitation, sustainable
                                                         public expenditure and local
                                                         development (Congreso de
                                                         Colombia, 2019). There is no
                                                         clarity over the specific budget
                                                         for renewable energy.

  Climate-consistency of finance flows: iGST case study series                                                                                                                         20
Consistency case study: Colombia                                                                   March 2021

Government                Context                                Mitigation-relevant actions                                  Adaptation-relevant actions
lever                                                            Quantitative information      Qualitative information        Quantitative         Qualitative information
                                                                                                                              information
Information instruments   The National Climate Change                                          A regulatory roadmap for the
                          System (SISCLIMA, 2016;                                              development of a green
                          constituted by an Inter-ministerial                                  finance taxonomy and
                          Commission on Climate Change vii),                                   promotion of the adoption of
                          nine Regional Climate Change                                         environmental, social and
                          Nodes and local authorities together                                 governance (ESG) criteria
                          form the institutional axis through                                  by financial companies, to
                          which climate action and                                             enhance transparency and
                          development plans are managed                                        disclosure and build
                          (Murillo, 2017).                                                     institutional capacity, was
                                                                                               adopted by
                                                                                               Superintendencia Financiera
                          The national MRV system for
                                                                                               (2019) (CCADI, 2020b)
                          climate finance (2017) tracks
                          climate finance flows, both domestic
                          and international (DNP, 2020). For                                   Superintendencia Financiera
                          the time being, the system does not                                  and the Central Bank of
                          measure alignment with either the                                    Colombia are members of
                          Climate Change Law or the NDC.                                       the Network for Greening
                          Private finance was originally                                       the Financial System,
                          tracked, but there are significant                                   which can contribute to the
                          data gaps in the tracking.                                           development of guidelines
                                                                                               and regulations for creating
                                                                                               a greener financial system
                          The financial regulator,
                                                                                               (NGFS, 2019).
                          Superintendencia Financiera, is
                          also working on a new taxonomy for
                          climate finance that may help
                          reduce information gaps and better
                          inform decision-making, including
                          by the private sector.

  i
    The CGF membership comprises: National Development Department, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development,
  Ministry of Trade, Industry and Tourism, Presidential Cooperation Agency, Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies Institute, Fund for Financing the Agriculture
  Sector, National Development Trustee, Development Trustee, Adaptation Fund, Green Protocol, Foreign Trade Bank of Colombia, the Inter-ministerial Commission on Climate
  Change and the Regional Nodes on Climate Change.
  ii
      It is estimated that the implementation of the 2015 NDC would require a marginal cost of $20 per ton of CO2e by 2030 (Delgado et al., 2020), to align mitigation efforts and
  carbon pricing with the carbon neutrality goal. A higher would be required to ensure implementation of the 2020 updated NDC.
  iii
       These incentives are provided in the form of a 50% reduction in the associated cost of rent for non-conventional renewable energy projects for up to 15 years, an exemption
  from VAT (with a value of 19%) and a customs duty exemption for machinery imported for projects.

  Climate-consistency of finance flows: iGST case study series                                                                                                                21
Consistency case study: Colombia                                                                March 2021

iv
    This includes the accounting of budgetary measures (39.8% federal budget, 38.5% municipal budget and 4.2% departmental budget) plus financial resources coming from
the General Royalties System and destined to climate finance (17.4%). These estimates are not absolute; rather, a conservative approach that refers to ‘associated’ investment
for mitigation and adaptation to climate change is used. Actions are classified as highly associated or potentially associated to climate change and national policy instruments.
v
   To achieve the 2015 NDC, it has been estimated that public funding for mitigation action needed to increase its annual investments by 86%, although specific quantification
of adaptation needs is still required (CGF, 2018). These estimates need to be updated for the 2020 updated NDC.
vi
    Overall, however, public adaptation funding is insufficiently aligned with the country’s climate vulnerabilities (i.e. food security has a 35% climate-related risk, but public
adaptation funding for this issue is only 1%) (CGF, 2018).
vii
    The Commission membership comprised: Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development, Ministry of the Interior, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Agriculture,
Ministry of Mines and Energy, Ministry of Transport, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Livelihoods, Cities and Territories, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Tourism,
National Planning Department, and National Unit for Risk Disaster Management.
Source: Authors’ own elaboration

Climate-consistency of finance flows: iGST case study series                                                                                                                   22
Consistency case study: Colombia                                                     March 2021

3.2 Key actions considered to be inconsistent with climate objectives
In addition to capturing the positive aspects of government-led action on consistency, it is
important to consider the more inconsistent aspects of public action. These can indicate areas
in which progress is required and challenges that are likely to be faced when operationalising
the concept of consistency. In Colombia, there are two major areas that stand out:
deforestation and agriculture, and energy.

3.2.1 Deforestation and agriculture in Colombia
In 1990, 56.4% of Colombia’s land territory was covered by natural forests. In the period
between 1990 and 2014, deforestation, mainly in the Colombian Amazonia (which has 66.7%
of the country’s forest area), reduced forest coverage to 51.6% (IDEAM, 2020a). After the
signing of a peace agreement in 2016, 79% of Colombian Protected Areas experienced
increased deforestation, with a dramatic and highly significant 177% increase in the
deforestation rate (158,894 ha in 2019). Major drivers of deforestation are the expansion of
the agricultural frontier, the transformation of forest into pasture for cattle ranching, and land
grabbing. In recent decades, illicit activities have also been part of the driving force behind
deforestation, mainly in relation to illegal cropping, mining and logging. Another factor in the
exacerbation of deforestation is the exit of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia
(FARC), which used to control a large part of the country. Agriculture and its expansion often
leads to deforestation and is a source of emissions, but it is also a potential mitigation solution
(Searchinger et al., 2020).
Although in the past couple of years the deforestation rate has started to decline (from
219,973 ha in 2017 to 158,894 ha in 2019) (IDEAM, 2020b), in looking to the future (and
awaiting data for 2020, when the deforestation rate seems to have increased) it will still be
necessary to enhance law enforcement, promote rural land use regulation and ensure
effective conservation of protected areas, together with an integrative, comprehensive
understanding of local communities’ needs, sustainable development and long-term
management (Clerici et al., 2020). Public levers – including public agricultural support, social
protection and access to green finance – play an important role in shifting incentives and
disincentives in agriculture and forestry.

3.2.2 Energy transition in Colombia
Colombia’s energy matrix currently has a high share of hydroelectricity (76% of total electricity
generation) (Calderón et al., 2016). Notwithstanding this fact, an energy transformation of
Colombia’s economy is needed – to achieve the 2020 updated NDC and the carbon neutrality
goal – which must address the following issues:

       •   The economy’s strong dependence on the exportation and continuous
           exploitation of fossil energy. Fossil fuels and products of the extractive industries
           made up an average of 60% of national exports over the past 10 years, representing
           about 8% of the country’s GDP (DANE, 2020b); 9 90% of Colombia’s coal is exported
           and Colombia is the world’s sixth largest coal exporter, although coal mining only
           represents about 1.3% of the country’s GDP (Strambo and González Espinosa, 2020).
           Colombia also has 38 fossil fuel projects in operation, comprising four natural gas
           terminals, eight oil pipelines, three gas pipelines and 23 coal-fired units (Browning et
           al., 2020) and is continuing to invest in exploration for oil and gas, including $920

9   Percentages are estimates using official public information from 2010 to 2020.

Climate-consistency of finance flows: iGST case study series                                      23
You can also read