COVID-19: exit timeline - Discussion Materials| 1 June 2020 - Deloitte

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COVID-19: exit timeline - Discussion Materials| 1 June 2020 - Deloitte
COVID-19: exit timeline
Discussion Materials| 1 June 2020
COVID-19: exit timeline - Discussion Materials| 1 June 2020 - Deloitte
COVID-19: exit timeline
Introduction

 •   With Major European countries appearing to be past the peak of reported deaths, different
     geographies are testing various ‘exit strategies’ to mitigate the health and economic impact of
     COVID-19.
 •   This document provides an overview for each of the major European countries of their
     current status, key statistics and a reported or illustrative timeline (as relevant) for their exit
     strategy.
 •   In addition, we’ve included slides on the actions companies are taking in the workplace to
     ‘return to work’, plus advice for management teams.

                                                                                                           COVID-19 Exit Timeline   2
…And death rates will need to significantly drop for countries to begin to mitigate economic impact
 Approximately 5-6 weeks has passed since the peak for France, Spain, Italy and the UK, the worst affected countries

 5-day rolling average of COVID-19 new deaths                                                                                                                    Cases per million   Deaths per million
 Data as at 29/05/2020
1400                                                                                                                                               Denmark            1,982                   98

1200                                                                                                                                               France             2,232                  438

1000
                                                                                                                                                   Germany            2,145                  100
 800
                                                                                                                                                   Italy              3,823                  547
 600
                                                                                                                                                   Netherlands        2,671                  343
 400

                                                                                                                                                   Spain
 200                                                                                                                                                                  5,064                  580

                                                                                                                                                   United
   0                                                                                                                                                                  3,937                  552
       05-Mar            19-Mar            02-Apr                16-Apr               30-Apr               14-May                 28-May           Kingdom

  • The number of infected cases is correlated to the level of testing. A more reliable indicator to track the course of the pandemic is deaths (shown above) and ICU admissions.
  • Reported deaths can also be subject to distortion. For example if the reason of death is recorded as a co-morbidity rather than COVID-19. In the UK, excess deaths recorded by
    statistical agencies like the ONS includes people who died with the disease but without being tested, in community and care homes. This number is much higher than that
    announced by the Department of Health and Social Care.
                                                                                                                                                                                     COVID-19 Exit Timeline   3
 Source: Our World in Data    Note: Due to a change in methodology of counting deaths, Spain’s total deaths have been revised downwards by ~2,000 on 25 May
                              and the new deaths on 25 May cannot be ascertained. This # will be updated next week
Geographies are testing various ‘exit strategies’ to mitigate this economic impact
Strategies are now being developed to exit lockdown and “reboot” economies through a phased reopening of sectors
over several months
                                                                                                                                                                                    • There is a pattern beginning to emerge from
                                                                                                                                                                                      European countries actions and statements,
                                                                                                                                                                                      that forms a generic timeline. Governments
                                                                                                                                                                                      will learn from other’s experience and shape
                                                                                                                                                                                      their strategy to events.
                                                                                                                                                                                    • To contemplate relaxing NPIs the epidemic will
                                                                                                                                                                                      need to have passed its peak and health
                                                                                                                                                                                      services be under control with spare ICU
                                                                                                                                                                                      capacity.
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Key will be to remove the most economically
                                                                                                                                                                                      damaging NPIs, and leave in place or introduce
                                                                                                                                                                                      new measures which achieve
                                                                                                                                                                                      similar/significant health results.
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Early actions will probably focus on high
                                                                                                                                                                                      productivity and employment sectors and
Generic timeline                                                                                                                                                                      those with lower workplace contact and
   Wk1           Wk2            Wk3             Wk4            Wk5              Wk6             Wk7           Wk8             Wk9            Wk10           Wk11         Wk12
                                                                                                                                                                                      transmission risk.
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Ideally relaxation of lockdown would be
                                                                                                                                                                                      coupled with a combination of greater testing,
Indicative                    3 week                         2 week Manufacturing             Non essential              Nursery &         Production                Services and     antibody testing and technology for track and
Measures                      review                        Extension Construction                retail                Schools back      and services                  offices
                                                                       and supply              (or earlier)               (could be                                    (phased)       trace. The role of technology will introduce
Need to see testing ramped up and pressure reduce on health services (PPE available and
                                                                                                                           earlier)                                                   significant debates about privacy.
deaths down)

              Government needs to start planning the return to work and giving companies clear signals as it will take time to work through details of the workforce return
              (especially if pre-school return). Government also needs to start focusing on the next supply requirements e.g. temperature testing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                COVID-19 Exit Timeline   4
Non Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPI)
Countries have made different choices about the imposition of NPI but it is possible to illustrate a progression of
imposition and relaxation
                                                                  Non Pharmaceutical Interventions
      1                 2                  3                 4                    5         6                  7                  8                 9                    10

  Enhanced                                                Social                                                                                                   Lockdown,
                                                                            Working
   hygiene            Social           Travel           distancing                         Most                                              Construction          permitted
                                                                          from home                      School and            Non-
 measures &       distancing of     restrictions      outside work                      production                                               and               movement
                                                                             where                        day care           essential
     case          vulnerable       & university          (bars,                       and services                                          automotive             only (key
                                                                            possible                      closures         retail closure
 isolation in        people           closures         restaurants                        closure                                              closure            roles, critical
                                                                           mandated
  the home                                               closed)                                                                                                      retail)

 NPI modifiers, Governments will typically look to accompany                            • There is insufficient data to accurately estimate the impact of different
                                                                                          NPI in terms of reducing R0
 unlocking of specific measures with introducing the following to
 contain R0                                                                             • Given that >90% of deaths have occurred in over 60 year olds some policies
                                                                                          such as social distancing of vulnerable people may have disproportionate
 • Antigen tests – tests whether you have the virus, enabling people to stay in           impact on reducing deaths vs infections
   work or isolate to reduce infection
                                                                                        • The scale above gives an illustration for grading the response of Governments
 • Track & trace – to enable testing and isolation of known contacts during               with the unwind of lockdown policies broadly moving from 10 to 0
   immune period
                                                                                        • The re-opening of schools and universities is complex as it has significant social
 • Antibody tests – tests whether you have had the virus and may be immune,               rather than economic consequences. School openings may well therefore be
   although immunity is not yet proven                                                    accelerated

                                                                                                                                                          COVID-19 Exit Timeline    5
These exit strategies are linked closely to the sensitivity of ICU capacity to the infection rate R(T)
The relaxation of NPI will increase R(T), even a small increase above 1.0 results in a significant surge in demand for ICU
capacity
                                                                        Sensitivity of ventilator demand to changes
  Sensitivity of ventilator demand to changes in R(T)
                                                                           in the assumed asymptomatic ratio
                                                                                                                      • When NPI restrictions are relaxed R(T) is
                                                                                                                        likely to increase from the current estimate
                                                                                                                        of 0.6-1.0 back towards an unconstrained 4.4.
                                                                                                                      • The LHS chart shows expected ICU respiratory
                                                                                                                        admissions in England under certain R(T)
                                                                                                                        assumptions.
                                                                                                                      • The chart illustrates that even an increase to 1.5
                                                                                                                        results in demand nearly twice current enhanced
                                                                                                                        “surge” capacity. The peak illustrates that “herd
                                                                                                                        immunity” would constrain the spread in late 2020.
                                                                                                                      • The first issue is that there are not robust
                                                                                                                        assumptions linking different NPI to their R(T)
Epidemiology model parameters and assumptions                                                                           impact.

 Parameter                             Assumption       Parameter                               Assumption            • The second issue is that there are key unknowns
                                                                                                                        including the asymptomatic proportion, those who
 Incubation period                      5.1 days        Hospitalised proportion                    4.4%                 have the virus but show no signs.
 Infection period                       9.0 days        Hospitalised to critical proportion       30.0%               • Uncertainty on the value of key parameters leads
 Date of first infection               10/01/2020       Critical to fatality ratio                50.0%                 to a large confidence interval on the model
                                                                                                                        predictions.
 R0 (basic infection rate prior to                      Length of stay (acute bed) not
                                       4.4 people                                                8.0 days             • The RHS illustrates the impact of a 50% rather
 government intervention)                               critical
                                                                                                                        than 33% asymptomatic proportion. There is still a
 R(T) (effective infection rate post                    Length of stay (acute bed)
                                        Various                                                  6.0 days               significant surge in respiratory ICU admissions but
 government intervention)                               becomes critical
                                                                                                                        it remains within surge capacity.
 Asymptomatic proportion                 33.0%          Length of stay in ICU bed                9.6 days
                                                                                                                                                       COVID-19 Exit Timeline   6
Source: Deloitte research
France Focus
The decreasing risk due to Covid-19 will fit with further loosing restriction from June 2nd

 Topic                                 Current Status                                                                                                                               Key Stat                    May 29
                                       Daily death toll remained to under 100 this week. Authorities face clusters with less than 100 persons each                                  Current lockdown
          Virus Progression                                                                                                                                                                                          5
                                       time.                                                                                                                                        score
                                       Increased testing in elderly nursing homes and among hospital staff. Increasing testing overall with systematic
          Health Status                testing when suspicions (PCR and antibodies are tested). Current ICU saturation remain high (30 to 40% of total                              Max lockdown
                                       capacity with Covid-19 patients)                                                                                                                                             10
                                                                                                                                                                                    score
                                       Specific “health brigades” were created to accelerate identification of contacts, testing and quarantine
          Testing Status               placement. HAS announced that rapid antibody testing was approved to accelerate diagnosis (serology in less                                  Date of Max
                                       than 15 minutes).                                                                                                                                                        March 16
                                                                                                                                                                                    imposition
                                       Travelling restriction to 100km radius around home will end June 2nd. Remote working will remain encouraged
                                       (90% until June and 80% in the summer). Parks will reopen May 30th. Universities will not reopen until                                       Deaths in past 5
          Restrictions                                                                                                                                                                                              307
                                       September. Major sports activities in France suspended until June 2nd in green zone and June 22nd in orange                                  days
                                       zones. Restrictions could be reinforced when needed (set of health indicators to inform policies).
                                       Most department are now in the “green zone”, meaning that virus in low enough to ease restrictions while 2                                   Current doubling
          Regional variations                                                                                                                                                                                       42
                                       departments remains in the “orange zone” with a more progressive end of restriction until June 22nd.                                         days of deaths
                                       Travelling around in France will be possible from June 2nd. Restaurant and bars will reopen when they can
          Relaxation status            ensure social distancing, mostly relaying on terraces in Paris. Outdoor events could be organized with up to                                 Weekly Antigen         Not communicated
                                       5,000 people with specific authorization.                                                                                                    Tests                  over last few days

Illustrative Timeline
                              May                                                                    June                                                      July                                    August

May 11: Phased return to school and                      May 30:
                                    May 18: Middle                    June 2: Cafes, bars, restaurants    June 22nd: End of restriction in
   conditional deconfinement by                          Religious                                                                           People will be able to move around in France
                                    schools in Green                   open with restrictions. Ban on    remaining territories classified as
  department based on risk level;                      services may                                                                                       for summer holidays
                                     Zones reopen                        journeys of >100km ends.                    “orange”
 reopening of non-essential retail                        resume
                                                                                                                                                                                                       COVID-19 Exit Timeline   7
Source: French Health Ministry; Our Wold in Data
Germany Focus
Germany has been able to control the virus better than most other European countries

 Topic                                  Current Status                                                                                                                       Key Stat                     May 29
                                        Deaths per million are considerably lower than seen in other countries and are on a downward track since late                        Current lockdown
           Virus Progression                                                                                                                                                                                  3-4
                                        March, although there has been a recent increase.                                                                                    score

                                        Has benefitted from the substantial ICU capacity (c. 4 times some other European geographies), health system                         Max lockdown
           Health Status                                                                                                                                                                                      4-5
                                        has not been in crisis.                                                                                                              score

                                        Has a very strong diagnostics industry and ramped up antigen testing quickly. Testing of young people picked up                      Date of Max
           Testing Status                                                                                                                                                                                 March 16
                                        an increasing amount of less serious cases, lowering the death rate. Have started trialling antibody tests.                          imposition
                                        Industrial prod. resumed with social distancing measures; widespread remote working; mass gatherings
           Restrictions                 prohibited until Aug 31; borders remain closed (biz travel with permission possible). 14 day quarantine for                          Deaths in past 5
                                                                                                                                                                                                             195
                                        those returning from countries with cumulated infection rate >50/100k. Social distancing extended to Jun 29                          days
                                        There have been some regional variations in restrictions reflecting local government decisions in light of virus
           Regional variations          variations. Disagreement between central and regional governments on May 25 with some regions like                                   Current doubling
                                                                                                                                                                                                              36
                                        Thuringia hoping to ease contact distancing more drastically (scrap rules on mask wearing and distancing).                           days of deaths
                                        All shops including hairdressers, public services opened on May 4; restaurants opened May 15 along with hotels
                                        in some states; cross-country transport resumed; some states allowed reopening of gyms; phased school                                Weekly Antigen
           Relaxation status                                                                                                                                                                              ~382,000
                                        returns now in place. Government reviewing easing on a two weekly basis with the condition of reinstating                            Tests (18-24 May)
                                        lockdown if new infections exceed 50 out of 100,000.
Illustrative Timeline
                                      May                                                                     June                                                                    July

  May 4: Phased return to school
    (reduced schedules) with all        May 15: Reopening of restaurants   Gradual reduction in WFH, travel      June 15: Borders to reopen initially      New normal with distancing,
  students back by July, retail and     along with hotels in some states               allowed                   to Switzerland, France and Austria.    protection and enhanced measures
       public services opened
                                                                                                                                                                                                 COVID-19 Exit Timeline   8
Source: Our World in Data
Italy Focus
The virus shows signs of slowdown, leading policy makers to implement a calendar for reopening activities

 Topic                                   Current Status                                                                                                                           Key Stat                        May 29
                                         The data shows a significant reduction in the number of deaths over the last few weeks as a result of the                                Current lockdown
          Virus Progression                                                                                                                                                                                            5
                                         containment measures implemented.                                                                                                        score

                                         There are still numerous concerns regarding both public and private nursing homes; in order to maintain                                  Max lockdown
          Health Status                                                                                                                                                                                               10
                                         control of the situation, testing has been increased for these facilities.                                                               score

                                         Testing has been ramped up significantly and is now running at c.436k per week; the ratio between new cases                              Date of Max
          Testing Status                                                                                                                                                                                          March 10
                                         and tests has decreased from 20% on March 30 to a current level of 1%.                                                                   imposition

                                         Schools remain shut but will reopen in September; Retail, Restaurants, hair salons reopened (with restrictions)
                                                                                                                                                                                  Deaths in past 5
          Restrictions                   on May 18th as well as religious gatherings; borders reopening on June 3, and with differences among regions.                                                               456
                                                                                                                                                                                  days
                                         Swimming pools, gyms, sports facilities reopening (with differences by region) from 25th May.
                                         Differences exist among regions with respect to the infection spread. The Italian government defined general
                                                                                                                                                                                  Current doubling
          Regional variations            operating / behavioural rules, nonetheless giving regions the possibility to adopt more restrictive measures.                                                                48
                                                                                                                                                                                  days of deaths
                                         Moreover, regions are given some degree of decisional autonomy e.g. on local public transportation.
                                         Construction, manufacturing and wholesale activities related to these industries opened on May 4; retail
                                                                                                                                                                                  Weekly Antigen
          Relaxation status              opened on May 18 maintaining stringent social distancing; loosened restrictions on physical activity; the Gov. is                                                        ~440,000
                                                                                                                                                                                  Tests
                                         preparing a plan for the holiday season. May 25: Swimming pools, gyms and other sport facilities reopening

Illustrative Timeline
                                  May                                                                 June                                           July                                        September

 May 4: Construction,     May 18: Retail, restaurants, hair    May 25: Swimming pools, gyms and         June 3: Borders will
 manufacturing and      salons, religious gatherings reopen,    other sport facilities reopening in      be reopening, with     Possible new policies to regulate behaviour and
                                                                                                                                                                                         Reopening of schools for all grades
  related wholesale      maintaining social distancing and        some regions, depending on            potential differences       social distancing for the holiday season
 allowed to operate      protection/ sanitization measures             contagion severity                  among regions
                                                                                                                                                                                                        COVID-19 Exit Timeline   9
Source: Our World in Data
Netherlands Focus
The Netherlands has already announced schools’ reopening calendar and more relaxation measures
are expected in May
 Topic                                 Current Status                                                                                                                         Key Stat                        May 29
                                       The number of new cases has been decreasing steadily since mid-April, while the number of deaths has been                              Current lockdown
         Virus Progression                                                                                                                                                                                        6-7
                                       declining since beginning of April.                                                                                                    score

                                       After some concerns regarding ICU capacity in March, the Dutch government has doubled ICU capacity to 2,400                            Max lockdown
         Health Status                                                                                                                                                                                             7
                                       beds, of which 1,900 are reserved for COVID-19 patients and there is spare capacity in this allocation.                                score

                                       Testing focusing only on the vulnerable groups (people aged 70 years and up or with underlying health
         Testing Status                                                                                                                                                       Date of Max
                                       conditions), healthcare workers and people in critical conditions.                                                                                                     March 16
                                                                                                                                                                              imposition
                                       Shops, factories, logistics, construction can remain open if safety of personnel and clients can be managed;
         Restrictions                  service-based businesses remote working mandatory; restaurants, bars and theatres still shut until June 1;                             Deaths in past 5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  83
                                       public transport will revert back to pre-virus schedule from June 1 but masks will be mandatory.                                       days

                                       The province of Noord-Brabant has been particularly affected, totalling one-fifth of total cases, and was subject                      Current doubling
         Regional variations                                                                                                                                                                                      38
                                       to some additional restrictions than the remaining of the country.                                                                     days of deaths

                                       Some school age groups are back at school. Most retail businesses have already resumed their activity including                        Weekly Antigen
         Relaxation status                                                                                                                                                                                     ~29,000
                                       contact occupations; outdoor sports with no physical contact allowed to resume.                                                        Tests (May 9 - 17)

Illustrative Timeline
                                 May                                                                       June                                                                         July

     May 11: Schools reopened with 50% of students under 12 years old                                                                                         July 1: Campsites and holiday parks
                                                                            June 1: Normal school schedule for students under 12 years old; students 12-18                                           July 15: Practical exams and
 attending each day; contact occupations reopened; outdoor sports with no                                                                                      will open completely; restaurants,
                                                                                years old start school; public transport will resume normal services; F&B,                                            lessons to resume at trade
                         physical contact resumed                                                                                                            cafes, theatres and cinemas can scale
                                                                                      museums, theatres and cinemas can reopen (max. 30 people)                                                                 schools
                                                                                                                                                                        up to 100 people
                                                                                                                                                                                                     COVID-19 Exit Timeline    10
Source: Our World in Data
Spain Focus
Spain will be in “State of Alarm” during May after recent negotiations with parties in the opposition.
However, relaxations to mobility have been implemented and consolidated (with differences among regions)
 Topic                                  Current Status                                                                                                                       Key Stat                         May 29
                                        Average deaths continue to fall and are now substantially below Italy and UK which are the other countries to                        Current lockdown
          Virus Progression                                                                                                                                                                                      6
                                        have had such serious outbreaks.                                                                                                     score

                                        ICU capacity has begun showing positive signs, hospitals showing capacity for treating COVID-19 patients and                         Max lockdown
          Health Status                                                                                                                                                                                          10
                                        other patients. Ad-hoc hospitals have closed, due to lack of activity (Madrid-IFEMA).                                                score

          Testing Status                Results of the first official round of tests has been published on May 13th. Increased tests will occur during May.                  Date of Max
                                                                                                                                                                                                              March 14
                                                                                                                                                                             imposition
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Methodology changed
          Restrictions                  Mobility restrictions between cities / regions will likely extend until end of June.                                                 Deaths in past 5          on May 25th and the
                                                                                                                                                                             days                     number of deaths has
                                        Regional status is changing weekly with most of the regions in phase 2 next week, but major economic hubs                                                          decreased
          Regional variations           (Madrid and Barcelona) are still at Phase 1 with important economic activity limitations. Some islands will move
                                        to phase 3 on June 1                                                                                                                 Current doubling
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 45
                                        PM has announced 4 phases de-escalation program (from 0-3). In phase 2, cultural activities and the partial                          days of deaths
                                        opening of activities with capacity limitations is considered, such as restaurants with table service and terraces,
          Relaxation status
                                        large shopping centers, etc. Individual mobility (sport, walks, etc.) is still permitted (6-10am and 8-11pm). In                     Weekly Antigen
                                                                                                                                                                                                              ~217,000
                                        phase 3, all activities are planned to be opened but maintaining security and distancing measures.                                   Tests (15-21 May)
Illustrative Timeline
                                     May                                                                       June                                                                   July

                                      May 25: Reopening cultural activities                                                                                             Possible larger
 May 11: Small shops, bar terraces                                                                                      June 22: mobility restrictions     July 1:                           Borders opened
                                      (30% occupancy) and bars (interiors)    June 8: Commercial activity at 50%                                                      outdoor gatherings
 have reopened at 30% occupancy                                                                                       relaxed (mobility allowed within   Quarantine                            to foreign
                                      (only in regions at Phase 1). Beaches              capacity.                                                                     (where distancing
    (only in regions at Phase 1)                                                                                              regions in Spain)             lifted                               tourists
                                           reopening in some regions                                                                                                       possible)

Source: Our World in Data                                                                                                                                                                         COVID-19 Exit Timeline   11
UK Focus
The UK is behind most other countries as it is later in the cycle but has recently, and in a very limited way,
eased restrictions by actively encouraging those who cannot WFH to go to work
 Topic                                   Current Status                                                                                                                          Key Stat                         May 29
                                         Deaths in hospital showing signs of falling but reports of significant deaths in care homes. With testing being
                                                                                                                                                                                 Current lockdown
          Virus Progression              ramped up the number of reported cases shows signs of rising. Real worries about relaxation when number of                                                                   7-8
                                                                                                                                                                                 score
                                         cases remains high. Official estimates of R0 are between 0.7-1.

                                         Additional “Nightingale” hospitals have been opened so ICU capacity available (c. 15,000 beds) and now some                             Max lockdown
          Health Status                                                                                                                                                                                                8
                                         being mothballed due to low usage. Significant PPE challenges in hospitals causing concern.                                             score

                                         Achieved antigen testing target of 100,000 tests a day on April 30 and May 1. No antibody testing programme
                                                                                                                                                                                 Date of Max
          Testing Status                 in place, although PHE gave Roche green light for their newly developed antibody test. Track and trace kicked                                                            March 16
                                                                                                                                                                                 imposition
                                         off in England and Scotland on May 28 to prevent a second wave.
                                         Essential retail and some manufacturing / construction remains open with social distancing. Airports remain
                                                                                                                                                                                 Deaths in past 5
          Restrictions                   open with no health restrictions but very limited flights. Two weeks quarantine imposed on arrivals. Fines                                                                  1,067
                                                                                                                                                                                 days
                                         increased to £100 and can double if with each repeated offence until £3,200.

                                         England, Scotland, Wales and N. Ireland have local control so some variations in restrictions. For example                              Current doubling
          Regional variations                                                                                                                                                                                          34
                                         Scotland closed all construction but England did not. Now evidence of division on stay at home message.                                 days of deaths

                                         Guidelines on May 11 announced 3 phases of relaxation – in Phase 1, sunbathing, unlimited exercise, outdoor
                                                                                                                                                                                 Weekly Antigen
          Relaxation status              sports and driving to a national park or beach permitted. Groups of up to 6 people keeping 2m apart from                                                                 ~479,000
                                                                                                                                                                                 Tests (16-22 May)
                                         another household can meet in parks/gardens from June 1. Phase 2 targeted for June 1, and Phase 3 for July 4.

Illustrative Timeline
                                   May                                                                          June                                                                        July

May 11: Phase 1 of relaxation now permits sunbathing, unlimited exercise,   June 1: Phase 2 of relaxation to be announced;
                                                                                                                                                          July 4: Phase 3 of relaxation to be
  outdoor sports, driving to a national park or beach; construction and       partial schools re-open (primary early years   June 15: All non-essential
                                                                                                                                                             announced; some hospitality           No clarity on WFH restrictions
   production being encouraged back to work with limited easing of             and 2021 key exam years), retail starts to       shops can reopen
                                                                                                                                                            resumes with controls in place
            movement restrictions (avoid public transport)                     open. Groups of up to 6 allowed to meet
                                                                                                                                                                                                        COVID-19 Exit Timeline      12
Source: Our World in Data
We are seeing different levels of mobility (% from baseline) across location types in Europe
Restrictions on movement are easing selectively across Denmark, Germany and Netherlands, with mobility across
grocery/pharmacy and parks returning to baseline levels (even exceeding baseline for parks), followed by workplaces
Mobility change from baseline across location type (%)
On 21 May 2020

                   Retail & Recreation            Grocery & Pharmacy                             Parks                                       Transit              Workplace    Residential

                                                                                                                                                                                       16
 Denmark                             -38                     -21                                                           337         -42                  -77

 France                       -56                         -36                                66                                  -61                        -78                         22

 Germany                       -55               -87                                                          225                      -46                 -81                          18

 Italy                               -37                        -15                   0                                                -46                              -37            15

 Netherlands                         -35                        -13                                              246              -53                       -78                         19

 Spain                        -58                               -18              -7                                               -53                               -48                 19

 UK                          -64                                -16                         51                                   -58                              -59                    23

Source: Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Data; The baseline is the median value, for the corresponding day of the week, during the 5- week period Jan 3–Feb 6, 2020
Note: Public holiday in Germany, Netherlands, France, Denmark on 21 May
                                                                                                                                                                              COVID-19 Exit Timeline   13
In particular Italy, Spain, and France have sustained longer and more severe downturns in workplace
mobility over the course of the pandemic

5-day rolling average of mobility change from baseline for workplaces (%)                                                                             Est. duration of   • Spain, France and Italy
Data as at 28/05/2020                                                                                                                                 lockdown /days
                                                                                                                                                                           imposed much more
      %                                                                                                                                                                    severe restrictions on
             05-Mar          19-Mar          2-Apr          16-Apr          30-Apr         14-May      21-May                                               33             mobility much earlier on
      10                                                                                                               Denmark                                             although Italy’s mobility
        0                                                                                                                                                                  is returning to baseline
                                                                                                                       France                               55             with easing of restrictions
      -10                                                                                                                                                                • The UK was much later in
                                                                                                                                                                           significantly restricting
      -20                                                                                                              Germany                              25             workplace mobility but
                                                                                                                                                                           the measures have been
      -30
                                                                                                                                                            35             as severe as in Italy, Spain
                                                                                                                       Italy
      -40                                                                                                                                                                  and France
                                                                                                                                                                         • The impact of lockdown
      -50                                                                                                              Netherlands                          44             measures on workplace
                                                                                                                                                                           mobility seems to be
      -60                                                                                                                                                                  lower in Germany,
                                                                                                                       Spain                                30             Denmark and
      -70
                                                                                                                                                                           Netherlands at the outset
      -80                                                                                                              United                               47
                                                                                                                       Kingdom
      -90

Source: Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Data; The baseline is the median value, for the corresponding day of the week, during the 5- week period Jan 3–Feb 6, 2020
Note: Public holiday in Germany, Netherlands, France, Denmark on 21 May
                                                                                                                                                                             COVID-19 Exit Timeline   14
Trump has announced “Opening up America”

   Guidelines published
   • Will be regional - state based decisions
   • Based on stage gating based on health
   • Outlines responsibilities for States preparedness of; screening & testing, contact
     tracing, PPE and ICU surge availability
   • Employer responsibilities re distancing, PPE, temp checks, testing, isolation,
     contact trace, sanitation, cleaning and business travel

                                                                                                    Individuals                                   Individuals
                                                                                                                                                  Vulnerable resume public interactions but practice
                                                                                                    All vulnerable shelter in place. Max          social distancing
                                                                                                    distancing when in public, groups >50
                                                  Individuals                                       avoided and resume non essential travel       Employers
                                                  All vulnerable shelter in place. Max distancing                                                 Unrestricted staffing of work sites
                                                  when in public, groups >10 avoided and
                                                                                                    Employers                                                                                           4
                                                  minimise non essential travel                     Encourage teleworking, close common areas
                                                                                                    and resume non-essential travel
                                                  Employers                                                                                      3
                                                  Encourage teleworking, return in phases &         Specifics
Gates based on                                    close common areas. Minimise non-essential     Schools and bars can re-open
Downward trajectory of C-19 and ILI cases         travel                                         Large venues moderate social distancing
Downward trajectory of +ve tests as proportion
of total tests                                    Specifics                                    2
Robust testing for at risk workers and ability to                                                                                      •      Hinges off similar health triggers to Europe
                                                  Schools and bars closed
treat all without crisis care                                                                                                                 Implies a more rapid re-opening at Gate 1 than we
                                                  Large venues and gyms can open with physical                                         •
Pass through next gate if adhere to these and                                                                                                 are seeing in Europe
                                                  distancing
no evidence of secondary surge (timing TBD)                                                                                            •      Puts significant obligations on employers and states
                                              1
                                                                                                                                                                               COVID-19 Exit Timeline       15
Government schemes
Governments are starting to distribute material sums of money across Europe
                                                                                    Fiscal support             Cost deferrals (as part
                                        Fiscal support                                                                                                           Loan Schemes                      Uptake of loan schemes
                                                                                       (% GDP)                   of fiscal support)

                      DKK 60bn and 30.7bn extension on health                                                                                         SME and large company loan
                      spend and support for workers and                                     3.9%                        Tax deferrals                 schemes and guarantees DKK
                      businesses                                                                                                                      70bn (3% GDP)

                      €110 on health spend, liquidity support,
                                                                                                                   Tax, utility and rent              Guarantees for loans €315bn          BPI has backed €78bn in loans to 470,000
                      worker and business support, equity                                    5%
                                                                                                                         deferrals                    (14% GDP)                            SMEs
                      investments

                      €159bn on health spend, business support
                                                                                                                                                      Guarantees for loans €757bn
                      incl. €50bn grants to small businesses and                       4.9% + state-                                                                                       Companies have applied for €46bn in state-
                                                                                                                        Tax deferrals                 (25% GDP) at federal level and
                      self-employed and expansion of Kurzarbeit                       level spending                                                                                       guaranteed loans; KfW distributed €26bn
                                                                                                                                                      €73 at state level
                      scheme
                                                                                                                                                      Credit supply support €5.1bn
                      ‘Cura Italia’ €25bn on health spend, job                                                                                        (0.3% GDP); Liquidity decree         Large firms have asked for €18.5bn in state-
                      preservation, business and credit supply                              4.6%                 Tax and utility deferrals            allowing up to €400bn in             guaranteed loans, €3.1bn in loans approved so
                      support; ‘Relaunch’ €55bn                                                                                                       additional state guarantees (25%     far
                                                                                                                                                      GDP)
                                                                                                                                                      SME loans and public guarantee
                      €20.1bn on business support incl. for
                                                                                                                                                      schemes based on demand,
                      entrepreneurs and self-employed, expansion                            2.7%                        Tax deferrals                                                      €2bn issued for 121,000 firms
                                                                                                                                                      €13bn (1.7% GDP) available to
                      of short-time working scheme
                                                                                                                                                      support SMEs restarting activities
                                                                                                                                                                                           Banks received thousands of mortgage holiday
                      €35bn unemployment benefits, employment                                                  Tax deferrals for SMEs and             Loan guarantees for companies        requests per week. Tough qualifying conditions
                                                                                             3%
                      support, increased sick pay, health R&D                                                        self-employed                    and self employed up to €100bn       e.g. mortgage payment >30% of household
                                                                                                                                                                                           income reduces eligibility
                                                                                                                                                      Loan guarantee schemes for SMEs
                      £27bn business support, £40bn
                                                                                                                                                      and large businesses plus a          £46.44bn in loans agreed including £18.49bn
                      employees support, £14.7bn NHS spend,                                 5.2%                  Tax payment deferrals
                                                                                                                                                      commercial paper scheme for          in “bounce-back” loans to 608,000 SMEs
                      £7bn welfare spend
                                                                                                                                                      investment grade companies
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           COVID-19 Exit Timeline   16
Source: Policy responses to COVID-19, IMF; France’s state-backed BPI raises ‘lake of cash’ for stakes in domestic companies, FT; Italian companies ask for $20 billion in state-
guaranteed loans: credit agency, Reuters; BNR News; Spain's banks overwhelmed with requests for mortgage relief, Reuters; UK Finance
Return to work – operational practice
Actions companies are taking in
the workplace

                                        COVID-19 Exit Timeline   17
Return to work – operational practice
Actions companies are taking in the workplace

 • The following pages are a collation of actions we have observed being taken, or guidance we
   have identified.

 • The focus is on actions companies may wish to consider taking in the coming weeks and months
   as they emerge from lockdown. It is focussed on tactical actions, and not on long term actions.

 • Please note, the information and photographs included in this document may not be compliant
   with any legislation or guidance which may exist in any jurisdiction.

                                                                                                     COVID-19 Exit Timeline   18
Actions companies are taking in the workplace

                                                                                              Office

     Signs                                                                                             Health & Hygiene
     •   Extensive use of signs & posters on social distancing, good hygiene practices etc.            Employee health / testing
                                                                                                       • Self-declare health status every week - questionnaire
                                                                                                       • Temperature check all staff on arrival
                                                                                                       • Coronavirus testing every two weeks
     Social distancing                                                                                 PPE
     Working from home                                                                                 • Compulsory face masks
     • Encourage WFH where possible                                                                    • Gloves / masks for workers in regular contact with others e.g.. Reception
     • Go to office only on designated days                                                            • Physical partitions in high traffic areas e.g.. reception
     • Flex working hours                                                                              • PPE freely available
     Meetings                                                                                          Cleaning / sanitising
     • Discourage in person meetings – use technology                                                  • Hand sanitiser at entry
     Separation                                                                                        • Sanitise meeting rooms after use
     • Rooms/Lifts/Canteens/Changing rooms have defined capacity limits                                • Disinfect handles, doors, surfaces, bathrooms, lift buttons, fridges, printers etc. more
     • Every other desk – desks marked not available                                                      frequently & intensively
     • Nobody facing each other                                                                        • Employees to clean own work area before starting work
     • Remove excess chairs                                                                            • Encourage employees to sanitise/wipe personal items: phones, glasses, iPads etc.
     • Physical distance markings on the floor                                                         • Ubiquitous cleaning materials
     • Defined desks – no hot desking during the day                                                   Other
     Training                                                                                          • No food in working areas
     • On-line at home                                                                                 • No communal food
                                                                                                       • Clear desk policy
                                                                                                       • Improved ventilation where possible
                                                                                                       • No sharing of equipment, phones etc.
                                                                                                       • Discourage use of public transport
                                                                                                       Third parties
                                                                                                       • Offered hand sanitiser on arrival

                                                                                                                                                                           COVID-19 Exit Timeline   19
Actions companies are taking in the workplace

                                                                                               Retail

     Signs                                                                                              Health & Hygiene
     •   Extensive use of signs/posters on social distancing and good hygiene practices etc.            Employee health / testing
                                                                                                        • Self-declare health status every week - questionnaire
                                                                                                        • Temperature check all staff on arrival
                                                                                                        PPE
     Social distancing                                                                                  • Mandatory face masks
     Customers                                                                                          • Mandatory plastic gloves
     • Control number of people in a shop                                                               • Gloves for any customer contact
     • Queue management                                                                                 • Customers offered masks & gloves
     • One-way through shops                                                                            • Self-service food - provide one-time use gloves
     • No walk-ins - Appointments only (bicycle maintenance)                                            • Gloves when in contact with goods or customers
     • Spacing signs on the floor                                                                       Cleaning / sanitising
     • Closed childcare (IKEA)                                                                          • Hand sanitiser at entry / exit
     • Opening hours for vulnerable customers only                                                      • Staff sanitising customer hands at entry
     Staff                                                                                              • Disinfect handles, rails surfaces every 2 hours
     • Controlled shifts – people stay in one team                                                      • Sanitise hands prior to trying on jewellery / watches
     • Shift changeover designed so teams cannot meet                                                   • Products cleaned after handling / touching
     Third parties                                                                                      Payment
     • Not allowed on the premises                                                                      • Pay by card, not cash
     • Controlled deliveries to defined areas                                                           • Credit card terminals wiped before/after
                                                                                                        Clothing
                                                                                                        • Extended return period to discourage trying on in store
                                                                                                        • Clothes tried on not put back on shelves for 24 hours
                                                                                                        • Sanitise changing rooms after use
                                                                                                        • Close fitting rooms
                                                                                                        Other
                                                                                                        • No customer contact
                                                                                                        • Screens for workers in contact with customers
                                                                                                        • Reusable bags not allowed
                                                                                                                                                                    COVID-19 Exit Timeline   20
Actions companies are taking in the workplace

                                                                                       Manufacturing

     Signs                                                                                             Health & Hygiene
     •   Extensive use of signs/posters on social distancing and good hygiene practices etc.           Employee health / testing
                                                                                                       • Self-declare health status every week - questionnaire
                                                                                                       • Temperature check all staff on arrival
                                                                                                       • Thermal imaging of staff on arrival
     Social distancing                                                                                 Cleaning / sanitising
     Individual segregation                                                                            • Hand sanitiser at entry / exit
     • Change into work clothes at home. Not changing rooms Shift change spread over 3 hours           • Increased intensity/frequency of cleaning
     • One-way routes through factories / warehouses                                                   • Cleaning supplies available to all staff
     • Redesign processes or use screens                                                               Training
     • Wearables that beep when within 2m of a colleague                                               • On-line at home
        - Generates reports on distancing                                                              Other
     • Dividers at cafeteria tables                                                                    • Making own masks
     Team segregation – completely separate teams                                                      • Workers scan QR codes for where sit in cafeteria
     • Controlled shifts – people stay in one team
     • Teams in groups of 20 to work / eat / travel together etc.
     • Assigned zones to work in to avoid spreading disease
     • Shift changeover designed so teams cannot meet
     Third parties
     • Not allowed on the premises
     • Establish temporary bungalows for delivery drivers to REST, shower etc. so they do not
        enter the facility

                                                                                                                                                                 COVID-19 Exit Timeline   21
Images of how visual markings are being used to drive behavior, and other tools

          Using lifts                                                         Employee protection

         Regular cleaning             Regular handwashing

                                                                                                    COVID-19 Exit Timeline   22
Image source: Getty Images
Images of how visual markings are being used to drive behavior, and other tools

           Floor markings                                 Monitoring social distancing   Innovation / robots

           Desk occupancy / density and distancing

                                                                                                   COVID-19 Exit Timeline   23
Image source: Getty Images
Management – some high-level considerations

Management                                                                Employee health
                                                                                                                                                                    What you should plan for / expect
•   KEEP THINGS SIMPLE                                                    •   Clear all employees for return to work
•   Be Authoritarian where required                                           •   Check for underlying health conditions. Seek medical guidance
•   Give autonomy to local HR teams                                           •   Make allowances for older employees                                                       Lower productivity
•   Health & Safety is top priority – make employees comfortable                                                                                                     New practices will be less efficient
•   Address employee concerns, be transparent & flexible                  Employee anxiety – provide support
•   Changes likely to be iterative                                        •   Employees need to feel safe
                                                                          •   Particularly those who:                                                                Higher absenteeism/sickness
Frequent two-way communication                                                -   Meet the public in the course of their work
•   Regularly solicit employee feedback, and make it easy (Chinese            -   Have underlying health conditions, particularly respiratory
    firms use WeChat):                                                        -   Elderly employees                                                                        Higher call levels
    •   Concerns, risks, safety etc.                                                                                                                                  from concerned employees
    •   Ideas for improvement                                             Technology
•   Ensure one-on-one communication is available so employees can
    be open about their concerns
                                                                          •   Consider technology investments which:                                                         Higher call levels
                                                                              •   Robustly support home working                                                              from customers
                                                                              •   Facilitate social distancing e.g. robot cleaning, on-line training
Using data – data privacy concerns / legal requirements
•   Many companies in Asia are collating and tracking personal data                                                                                    External resources for more information:
•   Alerts & reports of social distancing in factories where staff wear
    tracking devices to monitor compliance                                                                                                             https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus
•   Be open and transparent if using personal data                                                                                                     WHO Guidance for schools, workplaces & institutions
                                                                                                                                                       EU-OSHA Back to the workplace
                                                                                                                                                       CDC Interim Guidance for Businesses and Employers
                                                                                                                                                       CDC Guidance for Cleaning and Disinfecting
                                                                                                                                                       OSHA Guidelines on Preparing Workplaces for COVID-19
                                                                                                                                                       US White House Opening Up America Again
                                                                                                                                                                                                COVID-19 Exit Timeline   24
Contacts

Sam Blackie                      Jodi Birkett                                   Jarek Golebiowski                       Henry Nicholson
Economic Consulting Lead         Financial Advisory Clients & Industries Lead   Navigating Volatility & Distress Lead   Chief Strategy Officer
Email: sblackie@deloitte.co.uk   Email: jbirkettt@deloitte.co.uk                Email: jgolebiowski@deloitte.co.uk      Email: hnicholson@deloitte.co.uk

                                                                                                                                   COVID-19 Exit Timeline   25
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