ELECTRIC VEHICLES MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT - GreenCape
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2021
ELECTRIC
VEHICLES
MARKET
ELECTRIC VEHICLES: MIR 2021
INTELLIGENCE
REPORT
1
GreenCape
GreenCape is a non-profit organisation that works at the interface of business, government
and academia to identify and remove barriers to economically viable green economy
infrastructure solutions. Working in developing countries, GreenCape catalyses the replication
and large-scale uptake of these solutions to enable each country and its citizens to prosper.
Acknowledgements
This market intelligence report was produced in partnership with the Western Cape Government
Department of Economic Development and Tourism. We thank Wilberforce Chege and Jack Radmore
for the time and effort that they have put into compiling this market intelligence report.
Disclaimer
While every attempt has been made to ensure that the information published
in this report is accurate, no responsibility is accepted for any loss or damage
to any person or entity relying on any of the information contained in this report.
Copyright © GreenCape 2021
Cover image courtesy of Unsplash.com.
This document may be downloaded at no charge from www.greencape.co.za.
All rights reserved.
Subscribe to receive e-mail alerts or GreenCape news, events,
and publications by registering as a member on our website: www.greencape.co.za
42 Hans Strijdom Ave, Foreshore, Cape Town, 8001
ELECTRIC VEHICLES: MIR 2021
Author: Wilberforce W. Chege
Editorial and review: Jack Radmore, Cilnette Pienaar,
Lauren Basson, and Nicholas Fordyce
Images: GreenCape, Jaguar South Africa, BMW South Africa,
uYilo, Green Scooter, Hiten Parmer, Pxhere, City of Cape Town
and Global District Watch
Layout and design: Tamlin Lockhart
i
CONTENTS
South African industry overview 19 3.7.2. The public and industrial EV market 40
3.1. South African automotive market supply 21 3.7.3. Charging infrastructure and network 40
3.2. The impact of COVID-19 23 3.8. Market drivers: EV and charging infrastructure 47
3.3. South African automotive market demand 24 3.8.1. Macroeconomic drivers 47
3.3.1. Commuter behaviour and travel patterns 24 3.8.2. Local demand drivers 48
3.4. An overview of the development of SA’s EV industry 27 3.9. Market barriers 52
3.5. The South African EV value chain 32 3.9.1. Products that are not fit for the South African
3.6. Potential impacts of EV market growth on the ICE market 52
value chain and economy 35 3.9.2. High import duties 53
3.6.1. The effect of EVs on oil imports, the balance of 3.9.3. Lack of policy certainty and support for EVs 53
trade and Government revenue 36 3.9.4. Lack of local skills throughout the value chain
3.7. Market sizing and dynamics 37 to facilitate market growth 54
Introduction and purpose 7 3.7.1. The EV passenger vehicle market 37
0 2 4
1 3
ELECTRIC VEHICLES: MIR 2021
Policy and regulation 55
4.1. Automotive Production and Development Programme
(APDP) (2013-2020) 57
Global industry overview 13 4.2. The South African Automotive Masterplan (SAAM) 2021 – 2035 57
4.3. Green Transport Strategy (GTS) for South Africa: (2018 – 2050) 58
4.4. Preferential Procurement Policy Framework Act (PPPFA) of 2000 59
4.5. The National Climate Change Response Policy (NCCRP) (2011) 59
Executive summary 1 4.6. The 2019 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP 2019) 59
What’s new? 5 4.7. The Carbon Tax Act 15 of 2019 60
03
ii
Funding and incentives 71
6.1. General database web page 73
6.1.1. Green Finance Database 73
6.1.2. Government funding and incentives database 73
6.1.3. Finfind database 74
6.1.4. AlliedCrowds database 74
GreenCape’s support to
businesses and investors 79
5 7 9
6 8
References 81
Market opportunities 61
5.1. Local manufacturing and electrification of public transport 63
5.2. Lithium-ion batteries (LIB) production 64
5.3. Passenger vehicle manufacturing 68
5.4. EV use in construction, retail, and in underground mining 69
The Western Cape: Africa’s growing
greentech hub 75
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Global EV sales in recent years 8
Figure 2: Leading countries with the highest proportion of EVs in new passenger car sales 9
Figure 3: South Africa’s Total final consumption (TFC) of Energy by sector, 1990-2018 10
Figure 4: Leading EV markets globally 15
Figure 5: Forecast of global EV sales 17
Figure 6: Manufacturing hubs in South Africa 22
Figure 7: Commuter travel patterns indicated by the number of annual travel trips by trip type 25
Figure 8: Modal split of work travel in South Africa by province 26
Figure 9: EV value chain in SA 33
Figure 10: Illustration of gains and losses in the ICE value chain due to EV uptake 35
Figure 11: Petrol and diesel consumption from 2007 to 2018 36
Figure 12: Fuel levy collected in South Africa between 2008 and 2020 37
Figure 13: ICE and EV Passenger car sales in South Africa since 2010 39
Figure 14: Active and incoming charging infrastructure stations in SA 41
Figure 15: Projected uptake of EVs in Cape Town 41
Figure 16: Projected increase in energy consumption in Cape Town 42
Figure 17: Proportion of ICE light vehicles exported and imported over the last decade 47
Figure 18: Year-on-year fuel prices in South Africa 49
Figure 19: LIB price/kWh over time 50
Figure 20: Graphite price over time 50
ELECTRIC VEHICLES: MIR 2021
Figure 21: How much respondents were willing to spend in purchasing an EV 52
Figure 22: EV global market share forecast 63
Figure 23: Reserves of EV minerals in the Southern Africa region 66
Figure 24: LIB manufacturing value chain 67
Figure 25: Passenger EV sales in South Africa since 2010 69
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iv
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Overview of the market opportunities, drivers, and barriers within the EV Market 3
Table 2: Key market segment definitions and vehicle types 11
Table 3: Private transport representation in SA 21
Table 4: South Africa’s market share of global vehicle production 23
Table 5: Vehicle Production Market share of the top OEMs in South Africa 23
Table 6: The impact of COVID-19 on South Africa’s vehicle production, exports, sales, and imports 24
Table 7: The history of the EV market development in South Africa: 1970s to 2020 28
Table 8: Recent EV developments and near-future plans by EV sector role players in South Africa 29-32
Table 9: Benefits and drawbacks to South Africa of EV market growth and fewer oil imports 37
Table 10: Overview of South Africa’s conventional ICE vehicle market: September 2020 38
Table 11: OEMs, industry, and distributors’ DC charging technology 45
Table 12: ICE restriction status for South Africa’s top vehicle export markets 48
Table 13: Import taxes and total cost of importing a Tesla Model X Performance All-Wheel Drive from the UK to South Africa (My Broadband, 2021) 54
Table 14: Availability of raw materials in the sub-Saharan region for lithium-ion battery production 65
Table 15: Live heavy vehicle load population in South Africa: September 2020 70
ELECTRIC VEHICLES: MIR 2021
v
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS
AASA Automobile Association of South Africa DMRE Department of Mineral Resources and Energy
AC Alternating current DoE Department of Energy
AEM Automotive Export Manual DoT Department of Transport
AfCFTA African Continental Free Trade Area DST/DSI Department of Science and Technology/
AIS Automotive Investment Scheme Department of Science and Innovation
Al Aluminium dti Department of Trade and Industry
APDP Automotive Production and Development Programme dtic Department of Trade, Industry and Competition
AU African Union E-buses Electric buses
AV Autonomous vehicles EC Eastern Cape
BEV Battery electric vehicle E-MBT Electric minibus taxi
BFP Basic fuel price E-mobility Electric Mobility
BMS Battery Management System ES Energy storage
BMW Bayerische Motoren Werke EU European Union
BRT Bus Rapid Transit System EV Electric vehicle
BYD BYD Co Ltd (Build Your Dreams) FCEV Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle
CaF2 Calcium fluoride FDI Foreign Direct Investment
CBT Carbon Tax Fe Iron
CCS Combined Charging System GABS Golden Arrow Bus Services
CHAdeMO CHArge de MO GERPISA Le Réseau International de l’Automobile
CPI Consumer Price Index (International Automobile Network)
ELECTRIC VEHICLES: MIR 2021
CO2 Carbon dioxide GHG Greenhouse gases
Co Cobalt GM General Motors
CoCT/CCT City of cape Town GMA Gautrain Management Agency
CPUT Cape Peninsula University of Technology GP Gauteng Province
CSIR Council for Scientific and Industrial Research GTS Green Transport Strategy
Cu Copper HEV Hybrid electric vehicle
DC Direct current HFCEV Hydrogen Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle
DER Distributed energy resource Hp Horsepower
DMEA Department of Mineral and Energy Affairs HySA Hydrogen South Africa
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vi
ICE Internal combustion engine OPEC Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
IDC Industrial Development Corporation PAYD Pay as You Drive
IDZ Industrial Development Zone PAYS Pay as You Save
I&F Infrastructure and facilities PHEV Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle
IFC international Finance Corporation PI Production incentives
IPP Independent Power Producer PJ/a Petajoules per annum
ITAC International Trade Administration Commission PPPFA Preferential Procurement Policy Framework Act
Km/a Kilometres per annum PRCC Production Rebate Credit Certificate
KWh Kilowatt-hour PV Photovoltaic
KZN KwaZulu-Natal RAF Road Accident Fund
LCT Low-Carbon Transport RE Renewable energy
LCT-SA Low-Carbon Transport South Africa Project SAAM South African Automotive Masterplan
LCV Light commercial vehicles SADC Southern African Development Community
LDV Light duty vehicle SAIAMC South African Institute for Advanced Materials Chemistry
LEDA Limpopo Economic Development Agency SEZ Special Economic Zone
LFP Lithium iron phosphate SOV Single occupancy vehicle
LIB Lithium-ion battery SSA Sub-Saharan Africa
MaaS Mobility-as-a-Service SUV Sports Utility Vehicle
MBT Minibus taxi THRIP Technology and Human Resources for Industry Programme
Mg Magnesium TIA Technology Innovation Agency
MIR Market Intelligence Report TRP Taxi Recapitalisation Programme
Mn Manganese UNEP United Nations Environmental Programme
NAACAM National Association of Automotive Component UNIDO United Nations Industrial Development Organization
and Allied Manufacturers USA United States of America
NAAMSA National Association of Automobile Manufacturers USGS U.S. Geological Survey
of South Africa UWC University of the Western Cape
NCA Lithium nickel cobalt aluminium oxide V2G Vehicle to grid
NCCRP National Climate Change Response Policy V2H Vehicle to home
vii ELECTRIC VEHICLES: MIR 2021
NEC Nippon Electric Company V2X Vehicle to everything
NEV New energy vehicle VAA Vehicle assembly allowance
NHTS National Household Travel Survey VALA Volume assembly localisation allowance
Ni Nickel Veh Vehicle
Nm Newton metres WC Western Cape
NMC Nickel manganese cobalt oxide YTD Year to date
OEM Original equipment manufacturer
OES Original equipment supplier Exchange rate used: 1 US Dollar = R15
EXECUTIVE
SUMMARY
This market intelligence report is written for investors, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), equipment
suppliers, project developers, and technical advisers. It highlights current investment opportunities in the
electric vehicles market in South Africa.
Globally, the momentum for subsidies for new energy vehicles SA has thus not yet joined South Africa already has a strong
electric mobility has increased (NEVs), including EVs. Many the ranks of those countries market for the assembly of internal
exponentially as evidenced by the countries across the world have experiencing a steep rise in EV combustion engine (ICE) vehicles.
number of sales over the period now shifted their policies towards uptake and the development of the The automotive sector is a key
2013 to 2020. This global shift has accelerating EV uptake — also ecosystem and value chain around player in the country’s economic
been primarily driven by national as part of their Covid-19 recovery EVs. However, this is likely to landscape, contributing 6.4% of
emission reduction commitments strategies — which is likely to drive change as lithium-ion battery (LIB) GDP and 27.6% of manufacturing
stemming from the Paris up the global demand for EVs. prices continue to fall. Decreasing output. Total revenue from this
ELECTRIC VEHICLES: MIR 2021
Agreement on climate change, battery prices drive EV prices sector was more than R500 billion
growing urban air pollution South Africa (SA) does not yet down. It is expected that once the (US$35.6 billion) in 2019, with the
concerns, and continued crude oil have policies, subsidies, or price of EVs becomes competitive industry employing up to 900 000
price volatility. In 2019 a year-on- incentives in place to accelerate in South Africa, the same rise in people directly and indirectly —
year decrease in Electric Vehicle the development of the EV market. uptake in the consumer market will including downstream in wholesale,
(EV) sales figures was seen for the be experienced. retail trade, and maintenance.
first time after China halved its
03
1South Africa is considered a A thriving EV market in SA will The assembly of buses Also, other raw materials
second-tier market, having also result in increased economic further enjoys the benefit of required in the cathode are
produced more than 600 000 ICE resilience to some of the economic duty-free importation of all mined in Sub-Saharan Africa.
vehicles, predominantly for the impacts of climate change driveline components. While The logistical advantages of
export market. SA is, therefore, a mitigation measures through, this is a flat market in SA, closer geographical proximity
net exporter of vehicles. for example, counteracting there is scope to revitalise this coupled with improved regional
the economic impact of the space. Incorporating e-bus free trade policies, such as the
When the COVID-19 case rate inevitable decline in demand manufacturing for public African Continental Free Trade
increased in South Africa, the for ICE vehicles globally. transportation is a more Area (AfCFTA) and the African
national government implemented economically viable way of Union (AU) Agenda 63, could
national restrictions (lockdown There are substantial achieving this revitalisation than provide a range of advantages
regulations) to reduce the spread environmental, economic, and private vehicles, because as in accessing and utilising these
of the virus. This included the social opportunities for South per the last National Household raw materials.
limiting of active business activity, Africa in the transition to a Travel Survey (NHTS, 2013), over
also affecting the automotive low-carbon trajectory, enabled 80% of South Africans use public • Local passenger vehicle
industry. The lockdown, coupled by a green energy transition. transportation as their primary manufacturing: There is
with reduced international trade, Consequently, there are several means of mobility. a medium- to long-term
saw the South African gross emerging opportunities in SA’s opportunity building on South
domestic product (GDP) shrink nascent EV market: • Local lithium-ion battery Africa’s existing significant
by 51% in quarter two of 2020. By (LIB) production: South Africa automotive manufacturing
November 2020, the total domestic • Local manufacturing and is an attractive assembly and capability to develop a
production by the automotive electrification of public possibly future manufacturing manufacturing hub for electric
sector had decreased by 32%. transport: Public transport destination for lithium-ion passenger vehicles for the
Total vehicle exports from presents the best business batteries because of its existing export market. Manufacturing
South Africa by the end of case for electrification. This battery assembly and recycling for the domestic market is a
November 2020 had decreased is especially true for the bus industry. This is coupled with longer-term opportunity as local
ELECTRIC VEHICLES: MIR 2021
by 33% (NAAMSA, 2020). For SA, market that already produces SA’s mining sector’s ability demand increases and a more
a thriving EV market supported buses largely for the domestic to provide some of the raw supportive policy environment
by local manufacturing holds the market. Buses are designated in materials required for the is developed.
promise of sustainable economic SA and are subject to ~80% local nickel-manganese-cobalt-oxide
development, job creation, and content requirements by the cathode battery chemistry,
advance in the development of the Department of Trade, Industry especially manganese. SA
local green economy. and Competition (dtic) for holds about 78% of the
public procurement. world’s manganese.
2SUMMARY OF MARKET OPPORTUNITIES
EV use in construction, retail, and Electric mining equipment The electric mining equipment also Additionally, the demand for
in underground mining: There is a produces no fine particular produces less noise and vibration, lithium-ion-powered forklifts
medium- to long-term opportunity matter (PM2.5) from diesel and and requires less maintenance — is increasing locally, owing to
for battery-powered EVs and other tailpipe emissions, thereby further saving on mining costs and companies wanting to reap the
machinery in underground and necessitating fewer ventilation operational expenditure. benefits of energy efficiency,
opencast mining in South Africa, requirements, and therefore reduced air pollution for public
where mining is a key sector of the lower costs, and safeguarding Since EVs produce no tailpipe health benefits, and cost-
economy. This is because one of the health for miners. Additionally, emissions, they are increasingly effectiveness, as well as to
highest costs for mining operations EV mining equipment produces being touted as a remedy for use prepare for changing legislation
is getting air underground, and less heat because of the higher in underground mining. regarding emissions, such as the
temperature regulation. efficiency of the conversion from recently enacted Carbon Tax Act
electric energy compared to diesel. 15 of 2019 (SARS, 2020).
This saves on ventilation and heat
regulation underground. Table 1 provides an overview of
the major drivers and barriers
that are discussed in this report,
and highlights the market
opportunities in the EV market.
Table 1: Overview of the market opportunities, drivers, and barriers within the EV Market
Opportunity Key drivers Barriers Term
Local manufacturing • The need to meet climate obligations and greenhouse • Slow local uptake due to high upfront cost Medium – Long
and electrification of gas reduction targets • Rigid public procurement system
public transport • Public transport demonstrates the best business case
ELECTRIC VEHICLES: MIR 2021
• The poor precedent created by the City of Cape Town’s
for alternative fuel applications. unsuccessful 2017/18 electric bus pilot
• Reduced fleet operational costs, including reduced fuel • Lack of innovative and cost-effective financing
and maintenance costs. mechanisms and access to capital
• Decreasing battery prices • Insufficient skills throughout the value chain
• Increase in renewable energy usage and the clean
energy transition
• Local content requirements for manufacturing, such as
the designation of over 70% local content requirements
for bus manufacturing in South Africa.
03
3Table 1 continued...
Opportunity Key drivers Barriers Term
Lithium-Ion batteries • An increasing need for lithium-ion batteries (LIB) • Establishing strong public-private partnerships Medium – Long
(LIB) production in renewable energy and stationary storage, EVs, that extend beyond South Africa
consumer electronics and other sectors, both in SA • A better understanding of global manganese-
and globally oxide demand
• Availability of nickel, manganese (Mn), and other key • Policy support
raw materials in South Africa and the Sub Saharan
• Lack of existing local supply chain
Africa region
• Falling LIB prices that may diminish the feasibility of
• Availability and relative ease of access to lithium
local manufacturing of LIBs
and cobalt.
• Emerging need of Mn-rich electrodes that can
compete with ‘in vogue’ nickel-rich compositions
(security of supply)
• Local content requirements for the procurement of
utility-scale Renewable Energy and energy storage
facilities from Independent Power Producers
Local passenger vehicle • Government efforts to increase local content, • Insufficient local demand for EVs Medium – Long
manufacturing volume outputs, and jobs in SA’s automotive • Lack of innovative and cost-effective financing
manufacturing industry mechanisms and access to capital
• The potential loss of existing trade markets through • Insufficient skills throughout the value chain
the planned phasing out of ICE vehicles in many of SA’s
• Lack of a public charging infrastructure network
current export markets for ICE vehicles
• Increasing international demand for EV’s
• South Africa already has a strong automotive industry
that could potentially pivot to EV manufacturing.
EV use in construction, • Cost-saving since one of the highest costs in • Lack of local manufacturing industry for construction, Medium – Long
ELECTRIC VEHICLES: MIR 2021
retail, and in underground mining operations is getting air retail, and mining vehicles
underground mining underground. EVs produce no tailpipe emissions • Lack of innovative and cost-effective financing
and less heat compared to emissions from using mechanisms and access to capital
ICE vehicles underground.
• Insufficient skills throughout the value chain
• Demand for lithium-ion-powered forklifts increasing
locally, owing to companies wanting to reap the
benefits of energy efficiency and cost-effectiveness,
as well as to prepare for changing legislation
regarding emissions, such as the recently
enacted carbon tax regulation.
4WHAT’S CLICK HERE
NEW? TO WATCH A
SUMMARY OF
THE 2021 ELECTRIC
VEHICLES MIR
OPPORTUNITIES
Since the publication of the 2020 Electric Vehicles Market Intelligence Report, there have
been several important developments in the sector. Readers of last year’s MIR are encouraged
to read this year’s report in full, as the market intelligence has been updated substantially.
Among the additions to this year’s subsequent lockdowns on the • The grid impacts of EVs; enabled by a green energy
report are the following sections: automotive and EV sector, transition;
including the positive impacts • The potential loss of South
• The local lithium-ion battery that may be caused by the post- Africa’s vehicle export markets • Most recent, updated statistics
(and solid-state battery) Covid-19 recovery plans; due to impending restrictions on on the size of the automotive
manufacturing opportunity ICE vehicle importation in South industry in South Africa;
and the potential boost to the • New models of vehicle ownership Africa’s key export markets that
mining sector; and the role that commercial are shifting towards e-mobility; • Legislation, regulations, and
ELECTRIC VEHICLES: MIR 2021
banks can play in the market; policies guiding energy provision,
• The opportunities EVs provide • South Africa’s transport to cater for the increased energy
in the construction, retail, and in • Local EV market developments emissions (and emission demand from the projected
underground mining; and new vehicle models intensity), and the environmental, increase in EVs in SA;
launching in South Africa economic, and social
• The disruptions and impacts within the next year; opportunities in the transition • Results of the 2020 National EV
of the Covid-19 pandemic and to a low-carbon trajectory, Perception Survey.
03
5ELECTRIC VEHICLES: MIR 2021
Enabling, mobilising and
facilitating the South Africa
e-mobility ecosystem.
©uYilo
6INTRODUCTION
AND PURPOSE
ELECTRIC VEHICLES: MIR 2021
This market intelligence report is written for investors, OEMs,
equipment suppliers, project developers, and technical advisers. It highlights
investment opportunities in the EV market in South Africa.
03
7Globally, the electric vehicle (EV) It is projected that by 2030, 40% of of batteries. Still, the total cost of China cut subsidies on new EVs
market has been growing steadily all new car sales in the European ownership over the lifecycle of the (and other energy vehicle types)
since 2010, supported by financial Union will be electric, and this EV is significantly less than for by 10% as of April 2020. However,
and non-financial incentives to is projected to grow to 80% by ICE vehicles. The importance of the subsidies and tax exemptions,
make EVs an attractive purchase 2040 (European Commission, support and subsidies was shown which were initially scheduled
for private consumers. EVs have 2020). Despite this market growth, in 2019, when China’s reductions in to terminate in 2020, have now
gained a lot of attention globally government support and subsidies subsidies for new energy vehicles been extended to 2022 but will be
as a lever in attaining emission are still vital to allow EVs to (NEVs) caused the first disruption subject to a further 20% cut in 2021
reduction targets. China currently compete with the ICE market. This in the trend of continuous growth and 30% in 2022. Global EV sale
has the largest share of the EV is because the upfront capital in EV sales. This is evident from the volumes were drastically affected
market (UNCC, 2020). cost of purchasing an EV remains change in 2019 sales after June by the COVID-19 pandemic and
high, primarily driven by the cost 2019, shown in Figure 1 below. subsequent lockdowns.
Figure 1: Global EV sales in recent years
Source: (InsideEVs, 2020)
350
300
250
EV sales ‘000
200
150
ELECTRIC VEHICLES: MIR 2021
100
50
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
8Figure 2 below illustrates a China and the EU, particularly There are various reasons South Africa contributes about
year-on-year increase in global Norway, lead in the proportion of governments across these markets 1.1% of overall global emissions
electric car sales. the overall car sales being EVs. have chosen to support the EV according to the Department
market. These include: of Transport’s Green Transport
strategy. Road transport accounts
• Air quality concerns in cities: for 91% of direct emissions across
Figure 2: Leading countries with the highest proportion of EVs in new Increasing motorisation in cities the transport sector, primarily
passenger car sales has resulted in increased air from the combustion of fossil
Source: (Statistica, 2020) pollution concerns, which has fuel and the fuel quality in South
a knock-on effect on health, Africa that is at a Euro 2 level.
visibility, and the natural
environment. Because EVs As of November 2020 the Paris
Norway 49% produce zero direct emissions, Agreement, obliging signatories to
Iceland 19% they can assist in improving air reduce their emissions1, has been
Sweden 8% quality in cities. signed by 194 countries (including
Netherlands 7% South Africa) and the European
• Emission reduction Union (EU), and ratified by 187
Finland 5%
commitments: The transport countries and the EU. EVs provide
China 4%
sector has been identified as an alternative to traditional ICE
Portugal 3% a key contributor to global vehicles, as they can be powered
Switzerland 3% greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by renewable energy. South Africa
Austria 3% Top 3 markets by total EV sales
because of its reliance on fossil has the highest emission intensity
United Kingdom 3%
fuels. Of global greenhouse gas in the G20 group of industrialised
emissions, 15% can be attributed and developing countries as of
Belgium 2% China 1 053 000
to the transport sector. It is 2019, according to the Climate
Canada 2% the fastest-growing source of Transparency Organisation
United States 361 000
Denmark 2% GHG emissions in South Africa, (Cunliffe et al., 2018). The transport
accounting for 91.2% of the sector is the second-largest source
ELECTRIC VEHICLES: MIR 2021
France 2%
Norway 73 000 increases over the past decade of GHG emissions, at about 10.8%;
United States 2%
(NAAMSA, 2020). It is also the second only to the energy sector,
South Korea 2%
biggest consumer of energy in making the economy one of the
Germany 2%
Cape Town (64% of energy in most carbon- and energy-intensive
Ireland 2% Cape Town). in the world.
1
With a few exceptions where certain countries have been given allowances to increase
03
9According to the Department To achieve our current The climate targets that Additionally, EVs are only as green
of Transport, fossil fuels at environmental and climate have been set for the automotive as the energy source used to
92% are the largest source of commitments and targets, South sector by 2030 cannot be charge them, i.e. due to upstream
primary energy in South Africa Africa has to reduce emissions met without EVs being emissions. Powering EVs using
(DoT, 2018). This is the highest by at least 32% in the next ten incorporated in the transport electricity from coal sources is
in the G20, and SA’s emission years. Reductions from energy system. ICE improvements counterproductive. Renewable
intensity is almost double the generation and supply alone are alone are insufficient to energy sources like wind and solar
average of the G20 countries. not enough to achieve this. achieve these targets. are more ideal and in line with the
global clean energy transition.
Figure 3: South Africa’s total final consumption (TFC) of energy by sector, 1990-2018
Source: (IEA, 2020)
30 000
25 000
20 000
ktoe
15 000 2014
Residential: 11 402
10 000
5 000
0
ELECTRIC VEHICLES: MIR 2021
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
INDUSTRY TRANSPORT RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL AND PUBLIC SERVICES AGRICULTURE/FORESTRY NON-SPECIFIED NON-ENERGY USE
10Figure 3 illustrates the gradual It has yet to join the ranks of those Table 2: Key market segment definitions and vehicle types
increase in energy use in South countries experiencing a steep
Africa expressed in kilo tonnes of rise in uptake of EVs. It is expected
Market segment Definition Vehicle types
oil equivalent. The transportation that, as the market matures,
sector has been the second- the competitiveness of EVs will Private transport It refers to privately • Single occupancy
largest energy consumer in the continue to increase. In due course, owned and operated vehicles (SOV)
vehicles. These vehicles
country since 1994. EVs might not require government • Micromobility e.g.,
are predominately used scooters and bikes
subsidies to be financially viable, for personal travel and
Reliance on fossil fuels in the making it likely that SA could daily commuting.
transport sector poses a risk to follow the global trends in time.
countries because of the volatility Public transport It refers to the • City/Municipal bus
transportation of services
of the crude oil price. As a result, This report provides potential passengers by group • Commuter buses
many countries are seeking investors with an overview of the travel systems available
• Minibus taxis (MBT)
alternatives that will reduce their state of the EV market in South for use by the public. They
are typically scheduled, • Metered taxis
crude oil import bill and exposure Africa. It highlights emerging
have dedicated routes, • Ride-hailing services
to oil price volatility. Because local investment opportunities in the and charge a fee for
electricity production derived from EV market and notes barriers each trip.
a variety of sources can power EVs, and risks in the market. Although
Industrial transport This refers to vehicles • Forklifts
they are becoming increasingly the market can be segmented in
used in the commercial • Trucks / Vans
attractive in this respect. several ways, based on the context industry to move heavy
• Mining vehicles
of the South African market, the goods and materials.
South Africa has not implemented key market segments discussed
any form of incentives or policies in this report are private, public,
to accelerate the growth of the and industrial. A definition for each
EV market. segment is provided in Table 2,
as well as the types of vehicles
included in each category.
ELECTRIC VEHICLES: MIR 2021
03
11While there are a few vehicle In what follows:
There are a growing
segments where the application number of charging ports
of electric mobility is plausible, Section 2 gives an overview of the around the country.
©Jaguar, South Africa
this report will focus on four key global EV market and describes
investment opportunities: the market size.
Section 3 provides potential
• Local manufacturing and investors and businesses with an
electrification of public transport; overview of the state of the South
• Local lithium-ion battery African EV market.
manufacturing; Section 4 outlines the relevant
• Local passenger vehicle policies and regulations.
manufacturing; and Section 5 highlights emergent
• EV use in construction, retail, opportunities, barriers, and market
and underground mining. uncertainties that may affect
the growth of the EV industry in
Additional markets that are South Africa.
affected (directly or indirectly) Section 6 focuses on funding
by the emerging market for EVs, and incentives.
but are not discussed in this Section 7 gives an overview of
report, include: the Western Cape as Africa’s
growing greentech hub.
• the impact of EVs on liquid fuel Section 8 focuses on the services
dynamics; that GreenCape provides to
• policy mechanisms for its members.
incentivising investment in EVs
and EV infrastructure;
• the role of EVs in energy storage CLICK HERE
— vehicle to grid (V2G), vehicle TO CONTACT
ELECTRIC VEHICLES: MIR 2021
to home (V2H), and vehicle to GREENCAPE’S
everything (V2X); and SUSTAINABLE
• autonomous EVs; TRANSPORT
SECTOR
DESK
12GLOBAL INDUSTRY
OVERVIEW
ELECTRIC VEHICLES: MIR 2021
This section provides an overview of the global EV industry to provide
context for the South African industry.
03
13ELECTRIC VEHICLES: MIR 2021
Global EV sales continue
to rise, with a number of
European countries placing
a future ban on ICE vehicles
between 2030 and 2040.
©BMW South Africa
14The leading markets in terms of EV The growth can be attributed As a result, many governments
sales between 2013 and 2020 are largely to governments’ have put in place enabling policy
summarised in Figure 4 below. commitments to emission frameworks and mechanisms, and
reduction targets such as the Paris created generous incentives to
Agreement on climate change. encourage the uptake of EVs.
Figure 4: Leading EV markets globally
Source: (InsideEVs, 2020)
25+75+L 42+58+L
42%
26+74+L
25% Leading the
global uptake
ELECTRIC VEHICLES: MIR 2021
3rd largest
for EVs and
global market
e-buses
leader for EVs
26%
2nd largest
global market
leader for EVs
03
15As indicated in Section 1, in 2019 According to Global EV Outlook China is the largest global market Although the market is seeing
there was a slightly reduced 2019/20, the global EV market was for passenger vehicles, driven by: rapid growth, there are key factors
growth trajectory for EVs, linked valued at ~R1.6 trillion (USD 118.9 that could slow down the growth of
to the reduction of incentives. billion). Although only accounting • the government’s commitment the EV market. These include:
Global car (ICE and EV) production for 2.1% of the automotive industry, to reducing greenhouse gas
was 91.8 million. Sales declined to the compound annual growth rate emissions; • battery prices not decreasing as
91.3 million, primarily because of for EV sales is estimated at 22.3%. • tight fuel regulations that expected;
reduced demand from China. The private transport segment have resulted in the provision • a lack of, or inadequate/
accounts for the largest share of generous incentives and insufficient enabling policy
However, EV sales in 2019 of this global market, with public subsidies (financial and non- environment;
increased to 2.21 million units (2.5% transport accounting for far less. financial), making EV cost • China’s reduction and
market share of new vehicle sales), comparable to ICE vehicles; elimination of some EV
with Europe as the main driver of The number of electricity charging • local manufacturing and incentives;
EV growth. This increase has been points worldwide was estimated economies of scale, thereby • oil prices decreasing further
driven by government policies to be approximately 5.2 million at reducing the cost of vehicles; instead of increasing due to
such as the European Green Deal the end of 2018, up 44% from the and lower demand for oil in Europe
that aims for Europe to be climate previous year. Most of this increase • extensive charging infrastructure and China, coupled with a steady
neutral by 2050, emission and fuel was in private charging points, networks. supply of oil from OPEC; and
economy regulations, and financial accounting for more than 90% • limited range and charging
and non-financial incentives of the 1.6 million installations last Europe and the US are also leading infrastructure networks.
(European Commission, 2020). year (IEA 2019). global markets, driven by financial
and non-financial incentives for Without incentives and subsidies,
As indicated in Section 1, China China (42%), Europe (26%), and manufacturers and consumers, as the barriers would result in delayed
currently has the largest share of North America (25%) are the well as the respective governments’ EV and ICE vehicle cost parity,
the electric vehicle market. It is markets leading the global commitment to developing thereby limiting rapid adoption.
also projected that by 2030, 40% of uptake in EVs. In their respective enabling policy environments. However, Bloomberg forecasts that
all new car sales in the European territories, BYD, Nissan and Tesla EV passenger vehicle sales will
Union will be electric, and this is are the leading brands. exceed ICE vehicle sales around
ELECTRIC VEHICLES: MIR 2021
projected to grow to 80% by 2040. 2037 (Figure 5).
16Figure 5: Forecast of global EV sales
(Source: Bloomberg)
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
ICE
0% EV
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Year
ELECTRIC VEHICLES: MIR 2021
There is a growing business
case for the use of EVs in
the taxi industry.
©Green Scooter
03
17ELECTRIC VEHICLES: MIR 2021
Green mobility: Electric
vehicles powered through
renewable energy.
©Hiten Parmar
18SOUTH AFRICAN
INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
The emerging EV market represents a small share of the
SA automotive industry but presents substantial opportunities for
businesses and investors active and/or interested in the sector.There is a strengthening
business case for the
use of EVs in the private
security industry.
©District Watch GroupThis section will discuss how the Exports of automotive products, Table 3 provides an overview and distributors in each private
EV market has unfolded within the which reached a record R178.8 of known original equipment transport market segment in
South African context. billion, were shipped to a record manufacturers (OEMs), importers, South Africa.
155 export destinations, up
3.1. South African from 149 in the previous year Table 3: Private transport representation in SA
automotive market supply (Cision, 2019).
Original equipment manufacturers Importers and distributors
South Africa already has a strong When the COVID-19 case rate (OEMs)
market for the assembly2 and increased in South Africa, the
future manufacturing of internal national government implemented BMW South Africa (Pty) Ltd Audi (VW Group)
combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. national restrictions (lockdown
Ford Motor Company of Southern Africa European Automotive Imports South
The automotive sector is a key regulations) to reduce the spread
(Pty) Ltd Africa (EAISA) (Pty) Ltd (Maserati)
player in the country’s economic of the virus. This included the
landscape, contributing 6.4% limiting of business activity, also Mercedes-Benz SA Ltd FCA South Africa (Pty) Ltd (Fiat Chrysler
of the Gross Domestic Product for the automotive industry. The Automobiles Group)
(GDP) and 27.6% of manufacturing lockdown, coupled with reduced
Volkswagen Group South Africa (Pty) Ltd Jaguar Land Rover
output in 2019. According to the international trade, saw the South
Automotive Export Manual (AEM), African GDP shrink by 51% in Nissan South Africa (Pty) Ltd Mini South Africa
the revenue from the automotive quarter two of 2020.
sector in South Africa was Toyota South Africa Motors (Pty) Ltd Porsche
more than R503 billion (US$35.6 There has been a 32% reduction in
Isuzu South Africa (Pty) Ltd Volvo Car South Africa
billion) in 2018, with the industry total domestic vehicle production,
employing ~900 000 skilled, and a 33% reduction in vehicle Honda
semi-skilled and unskilled exports as of November 2020,
workers – including in wholesale, attributable to the COVID-19 Mahindra and Mahindra South Africa
(Pty) Ltd
retail trade, and maintenance. pandemic and subsequent
Approximately 600 000 ICE lockdowns. Local vehicle sales also Mazda Southern Africa (Pty) Ltd
vehicles were assembled in 2019, decreased by 31% by November
ELECTRIC VEHICLES: MIR 2021
predominantly for the export 2020, compared to the same time Mitsubishi Motors South Africa (MMSA)
market and R10.8 billion in foreign in the previous year (NAAMSA,
direct investment (FDI). SA is a net 2020). This is detailed in Table 6 Peugeot SA (Pty) Ltd
exporter of vehicles. later in this report.
Renault South Africa (Pty) Ltd
2 Subaru
Technically, South Africa currently assembles vehicles rather than manufacturing them,
because the batteries are imported and not made locally. This is the reason for the low
local content in the automotive industry.
03
21Table 3 continued... Figure 6 highlights that SA because of the incentives provided
has three key automotive by the East London and Coega
Original equipment manufacturers Importers and distributors
manufacturing hubs located in the Industrial Development Zones
(OEMs)
Eastern Cape (EC), KwaZulu-Natal (IDZs). All three transport hubs
Suzuki Auto South Africa (KZN) and Gauteng (GP). Although have commonalities in that they
the EC does not experience all harbour private, public, and
Hyundai Auto South Africa Pty Ltd high commuter patterns like the industrial transport manufacturing
(MOTUS Group)
Western Cape (WC), KZN and GP, industries, as well as component
KIA Motors South Africa (Pty) Ltd
the EC has been an attractive companies that support them.
manufacturing destination
HAVAL Motors South Africa (Pty) Ltd
(HMSA)
TATA Motors South Africa GAUTENG
OEM Commercial vehicles
& bus companies
BMW (South Africa (Pty) Ltd
Figure 6: Manufacturing hubs in South Africa Nissan South Africa (Pty) Ltd Babcock, Eicher Trucks, Fiat
Ford Motor Company of Southern Group, Ford, Hyundai, Iveco, JMC,
Africa (Pty) Ltd MAN Truck & Bus, MarcoPolo,
Peugeot Citroen, Powerstar SA,
Scania, Tata Trucks, VDL Bus
& Coach and Volvo Group
Southern Africa
KWAZULU-NATAL
OEM Commercial vehicles
& bus companies
Toyota South Africa Motors
(Pty) Ltd Bell Equipment, MAN Truck & Bus
and Toyota (Hino)
ELECTRIC VEHICLES: MIR 2021
EASTERN CAPE
OEM Commercial vehicles
& bus companies
Volkswagen Group South
Africa (Pty) Ltd FAW Trucks, Isuzu Truck,
Mercedes-Benz SA Ltd Mercedes-Benz SA (Freightliner
Isuzu South Africa and Fuso) and Volkswagen
Group SA
22South Africa started exporting Locally, Toyota and Volkswagen Table 5: Vehicle production market share of the top OEMs in South Africa
locally produced vehicles in 1995, produce the most vehicles, holding Source: NAAMSA (2020)
and has to date exported 4.7 24% and 16% local market share
million vehicles. Table 4 below respectively, according to the Top OEMs in South Africa Market share Location (province)
(2019) (%)
shows South Africa’s percentage National Association of Automobile
share of global vehicle production Manufacturers of South Africa Toyota SA 24 KwaZulu-Natal
in recent years. South Africa’s (NAAMSA). The other local OEMs
market share of global vehicle each holds less than 10% market Volkswagen AG 16 Eastern Cape
production was at its highest in share, as shown in Table 5.
2019, standing at 0.69% of global Ford Motor Co of SA 9 Gauteng / Eastern Cape
vehicle production.
Nissan 9 Gauteng
Hyundai SA 6 Gauteng
Table 4: South Africa’s market share of global vehicle production
Renault 5 Gauteng
Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Mercedes Benz SA 4 Eastern Cape
South African
market share Isuzu Motors SA 4 Eastern Cape
of global 0.63% 0.63% 0.68% 0.63% 0.62% 0.64% 0.69%
vehicle BMW SA 3 Gauteng
production
Other 20
3.2. The impact of
COVID-19
The COVID-19 pandemic and As of November 2020, 404 991
ELECTRIC VEHICLES: MIR 2021
subsequent lockdowns have vehicles have been produced,
had a drastic impact on the which is a 32% reduction from
automotive sector in South Africa. the same time last year (596 253
The sector experienced a 25% vehicles were produced as of
EVs are being used decline in the second quarter November 2019).
locally in the private of 2020 (Q2) compared to the
security sector.
©District Watch Group
same time last year.
03
23Table 6: The impact of COVID-19 on South Africa’s vehicle production, NAAMSA anticipates that 2021, Uptake for EVs is expected to grow
exports, sales, and imports while better, is also going to be a in a similar geographic pattern
Source: (NAAMSA, 2020) difficult year for the automotive as the incumbent vehicle market,
sector. If the local vehicle and based on higher purchasing power
parts manufacturers are unable in these provinces.
2020 YTD (by 2019 YTD (by % Change
November 2020) November 2019) to deliver their products, their
international customers may take Figure 7 (NHTS 2013) shows
Total their business elsewhere – opening commuter travel patterns in South
domestic 404 991 596 253 -32.08 the way for upcoming rivals such Africa, based on data obtained
production
as Morocco and more established from the National Household
Total vehicle centres like Thailand to take global Travel Survey (NHTS) conducted
250 394 373 532 -32.97
exports vehicle export market share from in 2013. The survey revealed that
South Africa. education was the dominant
Total local reason for increased commute
343 037 494 929 -30.69
sales
3.3. South African time in SA, with work trips being
Total vehicle automotive market the secondary driver. However, this
188 440 272 208 -30.77
exports demand trend has been disrupted during
the Covid-19 lockdown period as
As illustrated in Table 6, there Buying a car is, for most South Commuter behaviour and travel more people were required to work
has been a 33% reduction in total Africans, their second-biggest patterns, as well as consumer and study from home instead.
vehicle exports as of November acquisition, but most people do preference, all play an important
2020, compared with a similar not have much disposable income role in shaping the automotive Private transport holds a dominant
period the previous year. Local due to the economic impacts of market demand in SA. modal share of 62.1%. This pattern
vehicle sales stand at 343 037 the COVID-19 pandemic. of modal share is expected to
as of November 2020, which is a 3.3.1. Commuter behaviour continue. The consistently high
31% reduction compared with the South Africa’s car dealerships and travel patterns private transport modal share
494 929 vehicles sold locally by were also affected by the indicates that the EV sales
November 2019. Vehicle exports pandemic. These are very asset- There are currently more than 12 growth will likely be led by private
ELECTRIC VEHICLES: MIR 2021
have decreased by 33% compared intensive businesses with a lot of million vehicles on South Africa’s transport as well. This bears
to the same time last year. debt, and are heavily reliant on road networks. Gauteng, KwaZulu- similarities to how EV uptake has
sales. During the ‘hard’ lockdown, Natal, and the Western Cape are grown in the three leading global
Asset finance was greatly dealerships were not allowed to the provinces with the highest markets (see Section 2).
affected, as sales slumped, and re-open (hence vehicles could vehicle sales and ownership.
42% of consumers asked for not be sold) even when
vehicle payment relief – for automakers were permitted
three months at least. to resume operations.
24Figure 7: Commuter travel patterns indicated by the number of annual
travel trips by trip type
Source: National Household Travel Survey (NHTS, 2013)
50+45+5L
50%
45%
5%
EDUCATION TRIPS
WORK TRIPS
BUSINESS TRIPS
The public transport share of It is also worth noting that South
the total market has increased Africa’s population continues
marginally since 1995. Minibus to increase. City residents are
taxis have been the dominant also travelling more than before,
mode of choice for public causing the total number of trips
ELECTRIC VEHICLES: MIR 2021
transport users, marginally to increase.
increasing their market share at
the expense of trains and buses.
Education trips account
for the highest percentage
of travel patterns
indicated by trip type.
©District Watch Group
03
25Figure 8: Modal split of work travel in South Africa by province
Source: National Household Travel Survey (NHTS, 2013)
73% 11% 16% 2003 2003 37% 63%
71% 12% 17% 2013 2013 37% 63%
6%
LP 2003 49% 51%
64% 30% 2003
2013 52% 48%
67% 33% 2013
GP MP
NW
FS 5%
KZN
2003 26% 69%51%
NC
2013 15% 79%
6%
EC 2003 17% 83%
77% 23% 2003
2013 20% 80%
79% 21% 2013 WC
4%
ELECTRIC VEHICLES: MIR 2021
52% 14% 34% 2003 2003 14% 81% 83%
42% 20% 37% 2013 2013 9% 87%
4%
TRAIN
BUS
TAXI
26Figure 8, on the previous page, • trains, despite being the most
shows is a comparison of how cost-effective mode of travel,
commuters have used public are the least used option and
transport for work trips in 2003 one that has seen the smallest
and 2013 (NHTS 2013) — the year increase between 2003 and 2013.
the last National Household Travel Reliability, safety, and travel time
Survey was conducted (once every are some of the factors cited as
decade). The figure shows that in reasons for this limited increase
the case of public transport: in use.
• minibus taxis are the dominating 3.4. An overview of the
mode; this has increased in all development of SA’s
provinces except for Gauteng EV industry
and the Western Cape;
The early foundations of the EV
• bus usage has also marginally market in SA date as far back as
increased in almost all provinces; the early 1970s as a response to
this number would also have the first oil crisis hitting SA.
increased substantially with Table 7 details the developments
the introduction of bus rapid from these early foundations
transit (BRT) systems that have until 2013.
dedicated lanes and have
improved reliability, scheduling,
and travel efficiency for many
commuters; and
ELECTRIC VEHICLES: MIR 2021
Bus usage has marginally
increased in almost all provinces.
©City of Cape Town
03
27Table 7: The history Kobus Meiring, CEO of the SA
company Optimal Energy based
of the EV market in Cape Town, and his team
development in South started developing the Joule –
a local, all-electric family car.
Africa: 1970s to 2020 This was funded jointly from
the Sovereign Innovation Fund
of the Department of Science
In response to the first oil crisis, and Technology (DST) and The City of Cape Town
the Department of Mineral the Industrial Development implemented an e-bus pilot
and Energy Affairs (DMEA) Corporation (IDC), with a of 11 electric buses, procured
and the Council for Scientific combined investment of from BYD, for the MyCiTi
and Industrial Research approximately R300 million. Integrated Rapid Transit (IRT)
(CSIR) conducted research system in Cape Town.
that highlighted EVs as an The car needed R9 billion for
alternative to oil. This led to commercialisation. The venture
the development of the ZEBRA failed to demonstrate any
and LIB technologies. economic merit or sustainability.
The 1988 2004 2013 2019
1970s - 2002 - 2012 - 2017 2018 - 2020
Triggered yet again by high oil The uYilo eMobility Technology minimum of 5 000 volumes OEMs and
prices, the NEC was formed Innovation Programme, annually to qualify for the service providers
to look at alternatives. In 1992, initiated by the Technology incentive. The status of this throughout the value
Eskom took over the research, Innovation Agency (TIA) in 2013, subsidy is pending. chance announced
and various vehicles were piloted. is the custodian of Optimal ground-breaking
ELECTRIC VEHICLES: MIR 2021
These include: Energy’s assets. uYilo fast- TIA launched the National e-mobility plans for
tracks the development and Electric Vehicle Technology the South African
• two VW shuttle buses commercialisation of key Innovation Programme in market. Some of
• a utility vehicle technologies that will primarily March 2013. It was intended these are detailed
• an electric game viewer in the support the EV industry, such to create a collaborative in Table 8.
Kruger National Park. as lithium-ion batteries. environment for entrepreneurs,
academia, equipment
It was also during the Eskom EV industry roadmap. Led by manufacturers, technology
programme when Denel the dtic, it proposes incentives companies, and science
developed a hybrid electric for vehicle manufacturers councils to accelerate
combat vehicle. to locally produce EVs. The the development and
incentive was a 35% cash- commercialisation of the EV
28
A decrease in oil prices saw the back in investment over three industry in SA. The Nissan Leaf
Eskom programme halted in years, on the condition that EV was introduced in the South
June 2002. manufacturers produce a African marketWith the development and anticipated growth of the EV industry in South Africa, industry players, including the OEMs and vehicle service providers
throughout the value chain, have announced plans for new developments in the next few months. Table 8 below summarises some of these exciting plans.
Table 8: Recent EV developments and near-future plans by EV sector role players in South Africa
Key role Recent EV developments and near-future plans
player
Toyota SA • Producing Toyota’s first hybrid vehicle in 2021 at the Automotive Supplier Park KZN SEZ (Special Economic Zone).
• Toyota SA will produce the all-new hybrid Toyota Corolla Cross SUV- sport utility vehicle later in 2021, which will be sold locally and be exported to 43 countries
in Africa. This R4.28-billion investment is projected to generate about R2.85bn in additional component purchases and create 1 500 new jobs – about 500 of
these at Toyota’s Prospection plant in Durban, and 1 000 in the wider supply chain.
• As of 2019, 36% of Lexus vehicles sold in South Africa were hybrids.
BMW SA • Launching an electric Mini Cooper in January 2021. The Mini SE will be the most affordable battery electric vehicle (BEV) in the local market, with pricing
starting at R642 000, moving up to R722 000 for the top-spec model. It will be available for sale in South Africa from the first quarter of 2021.
• BMW is working on a new fifth-generation electric drivetrain, due in 2021, that does not require any rare earth metals, and plans to double the energy density of
its battery cells for an increased range.
The BMW battery-powered iX crossover – iX Sport Activity Vehicle, has been announced to arrive in the South African market in 2022. The vehicle will have a
100kWh high-voltage battery allowing for a range of more than 600km between charges – powered by two electric motors producing a combined output of 370kW
that is sufficient to accelerate from 0-100km/h in less than five seconds. The battery could be charged from 10% – 80% in under 40 minutes when plugged into a
DC fast charger. When plugged into a normal wall box, it will take less than 11 hours to charge from 0 to 100% capacity.
• The BMW Group is also working on a new fifth-generation Electric Vehicle (EV) drivetrain due in 2021 that does not require any rare earths and plans to double
the energy density of its battery cells for increased range. The group has also taken control of its raw material supply, signing a supply contract with Ganfeng
for sustainable lithium from mines in Australia, and a contract with the Managem Group for cobalt from Morocco.
Daimler/ • Already offers two plug-in hybrid models in South Africa.
Mercedes • Unveiled South African-made C-Class plug-in hybrid EV. The vehicle will be produced at the Daimler facility in East London
Benz SA
• Mercedes EQC battery EV to be launched in South Africa in 2021.
• Daimler will bring electric trucks to the South African market when the local infrastructure can accommodate the new technology. Daimler anticipates this
ELECTRIC VEHICLES: MIR 2021
happening within the next five years.
Volkswagen • Launching an electric VW Golf pilot in Gauteng in late 2020.
SA • Six EV models to be tested by motoring and lifestyle media.
• The second phase will be expanded to include a fleet of fully electric Volkswagen ID.3 vehicles from 2021.
• The third and last phase will see the first fully electric Volkswagen EVs available for sale to customers in South Africa from 2022.
• The newly announced ID.4 electric SUV will also be available for sale in South Africa in 2022.
Shell SA Launching the first EV charging stations in their retail network in 2020.
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