ENERGY, SECURITY, AND THE ARCTIC: KEYS TO AMERICA'S COMPETITIVENESS - Essays on Energy Policy May 2020 - The Aspen Institute
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ENERGY,SECURITY,ANDTHEARCTIC:
KEYSTO AMERI
CA’SCOMPETI
TIVENESS
Es
say
sonEnergyPol
icy
May2020
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Director’s Note ................................................................................................................... 2
Essays ............................................................................................................................... 3
The Changing Arctic: Challenges for Security, Governance, Climate, and Trade or “What
Happens in the Arctic doesn’t Stay in the Arctic”
Sherri Goodman........................................................................................................... 4
Disruptive Geopolitics and the Arctic
Geir Westgaard .......................................................................................................... 16
The Changing Ocean: Energy and its Impact on the Blue Economy
S.K. Avery ................................................................................................................. 26
The Changing Ocean: Energy and its Impact on the Blue Economy
Michael Conathan ...................................................................................................... 31
Geopolitics of Energy: Expanding America’s Global Competitiveness and Economic Vitality
Amy Myers Jaffe ........................................................................................................ 46
Geopolitics of Energy Security and Climate Change
Sarah Ladislaw .......................................................................................................... 54
Climate Change as a National Security Issue
Ray Mabus ................................................................................................................ 60
Energy Technology Innovation Leadership in the 21st Century
Hal Harvey, Jeffrey Rissman, and Sonia Aggarwal ......................................................... 64
Resilience in the Post-COVID-19 World: A Key to America’s Future
Leonardo Martinez-Diaz .............................................................................................. 75
Proposed Conference Agenda ............................................................................................ 83
1
DIRECTOR’S NOTE
This report includes essays that were prepared by scholars who had planned to
participate in our congressional conference on energy policy issues, which was to have been
held in Iceland the last week of May, 2020.
Regrettably, uncertainties related to the coronavirus pandemic did not allow us to
convene at this time.
Nonetheless, we are proud to present the impressive and substantial work prepared by
our scholars, and trust that it will contribute to the policy dialogue. Even though our convening
was derailed, the issues themselves will not go away and these policy analyses provide a
significant contribution for congressional consideration.
We had assembled a Republican majority of 23 Members of Congress to convene on
these issues, as expressed on the included agenda. We hope we will still be able to convene
and continue these policy discussions at a future date once the situation with the pandemic
permits.
Dan Glickman
Executive Director
Aspen Institute Congressional Program
2
ESSAYS 3
THE CHANGING ARCTIC:
CHALLENGES FOR SECURITY, GOVERNANCE,
CLIMATE, AND TRADE
OR
“WHAT HAPPENS IN THE ARCTIC DOESN’T STAY
IN THE ARCTIC”
Sherri Goodman
Senior Fellow,
Polar Institute and Environmental Change and Security Program,
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
What’s happening is the Arctic today agricultural regions, have all Americans
is the clearest evidence of how rising feeling the effects of Arctic climate change.
temperatures, melting sea ice and
My Bottom Line Up Front is:
collapsing permafrost are reshaping the
security landscape in which the U.S. Coast 1. Climate change is a threat
Guard, and our military forces, now multiplier, reshaping the
operate. The opening of a new ocean is strategic operating environment
occurring within our lifetimes, and most for the Coast Guard in the
dramatically within the last two decades. Arctic, and around the world.
The Arctic Ocean is now an increasingly 2. In the Arctic, a changing climate
accessible, navigable, maritime border for is emboldening our competitors
the U.S. The Arctic region is warming at 2-3 and adversaries (Russia and
times the global average, according to the China), creating new risks and
latest report from the Intergovernmental complicating navigating
Panel on Climate Change. And what conditions for the Coast Guard
happens in the Arctic doesn’t stay in the and our military.
Arctic. Greenland’s ice storage keeps our
coastal cities, like Miami and Houston, 3. We have a "Responsibility to
above water. Changing weather patterns in Prepare and Prevent” for
the lower 48 states, from the polar vortex changing Arctic conditions and
creating extreme weather events to the Coast Guard needs to
disruptive storms that wreak havoc in prime enhance its operating
capabilities in the Arctic, from
4
additional ice breaking, to per decade (during the satellite era
improved domain awareness from 1979 to 2018), changes are likely
(mapping and charting), unprecedented in at least 1,000 years.
communications and research The Arctic’s older, thicker sea ice,
capabilities1 which acts as a bastion against melting
of other sea ice, has almost completely
4. Leadership on Arctic security is
disappeared. Only about 10% of sea ice
essential to America’s overall
is at least five years old.
security and strategic interests
and must be a whole of U.S. • Ice sheets and glaciers are losing
government and partnership ice around the world. Between 2006
effort including allies, and 2015, Greenland’s ice sheet lost
communities, private sector, 278 gigatons (Gt) of mass per year.
and others, that serves to Antarctica’s ice sheet lost 155 Gt per
undergird the rules-based order year, and glaciers around the world
and support Arctic resilience. (beyond Greenland and Antarctica) lost
220 Gt a year. Combined, the ice loss
___________________________________
between Greenland, Antarctica and
#1: Climate change is a threat other glaciers not part of ice sheets was
multiplier, reshaping the strategic 653 Gt per year. For context, a single
operating environment for the Coast gigaton of water would fill
Guard and US military in the Arctic, about 400,000 Olympic pools.3.
and around the world
• The Arctic has warmed more than
The recent IPCC Special Report on double the global average in the
Oceans and Cryosphere in a Changing last two decades. During the winters
Climate found that climate change is of 2016 and 2018, surface temperatures
evident in the furthest reaches of the globe in the central Arctic were 6 degrees
from the highest mountain peaks to the Centigrade (10.8 degrees Fahrenheit)
deepest oceans.2 Greenland is now melting above the 1981-2010 average.
from the top down. Here are the key Arctic
• From 2007 to 2016, permafrost
findings that shape the strategic operating
temperatures increased by about
environment for the Coast Guard and others
0.3 degrees C (0.5 degrees F), a
operating in the region:
record level of warming for
• “Arctic sea ice extent in September permafrost. Warming of permafrost
(when sea ice extent is at its can be a ticking time bomb. Arctic and
minimum) has declined about 13% boreal permafrost contains 1440-1600
1
Werrell, Caitlin and Francesco Femia. “The Responsibility to Prepare and Prevent.” The Center
for Climate and Security. October 2019. https://climateandsecurity.org/2019/01/31/interview-with-sherri-
goodman-a-responsibility-to-prepare/
2
Maddox, Marisol. “Two Divergent Paths for Our Planet Revealed in New IPCC Report on Oceans
and Cryosphere.” New Security Beat. November 18, 2019.
https://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2019/11/divergent-paths-planet-revealed-ipcc-report-oceans-
cryosphere/
3
Walbolt, Kristen. “10 things: All about ice.” NASA’s Jet Propulsion Lab. March 28. 2018.
https://sealevel.nasa.gov/news/114/10-things-all-about-ice
5
Gt of carbon. When it melts, that carbon global interest in valuable energy, mineral
is emitted into the atmosphere, fueling resources, and access to shipping routes.
more warming.”4 The retreating and thinning of Arctic ice has
given rise to exponential growth in
Arctic communities have already
economic and military activities, including
experienced disruptions to their freshwater
shipping, resource extraction, and other
supply, infrastructure, transportation,
commerce. The Coast Guard Strategic
tourism and cultural traditions, due to a
Outlook stresses that: “The Arctic maritime
melting cryosphere. Many species
domain will continue to open and increased
dependent on cold temperatures, ice, and
activity will create more demand for Coast
snow are at risk, with some facing
Guard services. Near-term variability will
extinction. These changes will worsen as
result in a dynamic operating environment
warming continues.
that exposes mariners and Arctic
Indeed, the Coast Guard’s Strategic communities to unpredictable levels of risk.”
Outlook identifies that “the warming of the Rapid Arctic change is feeding into China’s
Arctic has led to longer and larger windows and Russia’s strategic ambitions, both
of reduced ice conditions,” and that “from regionally and globally.
2006 to 2018, satellite imagery observed
As I stated in an article in Foreign
the 12 lowest Arctic ice extents on record.”
Policy, “China has large ambitions
___________________________________ throughout the Arctic.”5 This includes the
#2: In the Arctic, a changing climate is advancement of both commercial and
emboldening our competitors and military objectives. For instance, China is
adversaries (Russia and China), aiming to use Russia’s Northern Sea Route
creating new risks and complicating to ship goods and other materials between
navigating conditions for the Coast ports in Asia and Europe. This will shorten
Guard and our military. travel times compared to traditional routes
through the Straits of Malacca and Suez
The Arctic has emerged as a region Canal, offering China a new strategic
of geostrategic competition, primarily advantage in terms of global trade and
because rising temperatures, melting sea freedom of navigation. In January 2018,
ice, and collapsing permafrost now grant this ambition was formalized in China’s first
access to this region previously locked in ice public Arctic policy, wherein China declared
most of year. Indeed, climate change is itself to be a “near Arctic State,” and
enabling great power competition in the articulated its intention to build a “Polar Silk
Arctic today. While the Arctic has, since the Road” that will stretch from Shanghai to
end of the Cold War, been a region Hamburg, first across the Northern Sea
characterized by cooperation and Route, and potentially later, across the
diplomacy, it has more recently become a
zone of increased tensions over potential
offensive capabilities of militarization, and
4
Levin, Kelly and Ezra Northrop. “4 Things to Know About the IPCC Special Report on the Ocean
and Cryosphere.” World Resources Institute. September 25, 2019. https://www.wri.org/blog/2019/09/4-
things-know-about-ipcc-special-report-ocean-and-cryosphere
5
Goodman, Sherri, and Elisabeth Freese. "China's Ready to Cash In on a Melting Arctic." Foreign
Policy. May 01, 2018. https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/05/01/chinas-ready-to-cash-in-on-a-melting-arctic/
6central Arctic Ocean.6 In the long term, the Arctic is firmly rooted in a pattern of
China foresees using the even shorter behavior that it has displayed, which shows
Transpolar Sea Route across the very top of that “When it is convenient, and when there
the Arctic, when that opens in a few are economic incentives to cheat, China has
decades due to melting sea ice. This route, a history of turning a blind eye to the illegal
which might be available for several months activity of its industries, or tacitly supporting
each year, would save China from having to them.”10
depend on Russian-controlled waters. As Li
Russia has been increasing its
Zhenfu, director of Dalian Maritime
military presence and assertiveness in the
University’s research Center for Polar
Arctic—and a significant amount of it is
Maritime studies, noted, “[w]hoever has
proportionate to their vast Arctic territory—
control over the Arctic route will control the
but their ambitions have political, military
new passage of world economics and
and commercial dimensions. On the political
international strategies.”7
side, Russia has the longest Arctic coastline
China also is deepening its Arctic of any Arctic coastal state, and Russian
presence through foreign direct investment identity has historically been tied to the
in several Northern European Arctic States.8 Arctic. Expanding Arctic development as ice
China is exploiting climate change and the and permafrost melt is therefore likely to
very real need for Arctic-based enjoy broad public support from a nation
infrastructure investment to assert itself as that identifies with its Arctic heritage.
a key partner in economic development and Commercially, approximately 20 percent of
scientific exploration. This presence Russia’s Gross Domestic Product is derived
enhances their own domain awareness, and from Arctic activities, primarily energy,
investments could plausibly be leveraged to industrials and mining.11 Russian President
influence policy to be more desirable for Vladimir Putin has set ambitious cargo
China’s long-term strategic interests.9 shipping goals which would quadruple the
volume to be shipped through the Northern
In a recent article, Coast Guard
Sea Route from 20 million tons to 80 million
Commander William Woityra points out that
tons by 2024.12 Though this cargo increase
mistrust of China’s actions and intentions in
6
State Council Information Office of the People’s Republic of China. "Full Text: China's Arctic
Policy." The State Council of the People's Republic of China. January 26, 2018.
http://english.gov.cn/archive/white_paper/2018/01/26/content_281476026660336.htm.
7
Jakobson, Linda. "China Prepares for an Ice-Free Arctic." Insights on Peace and Security. March
2010. https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/files/insight/SIPRIInsight1002.pdf.
8
Rosen, Mark E and Cara B. Thuringer, “Unconstrained Foreign Direct Investment: An Emerging
Challenge to Arctic Security.” CNA. November 2017.
9
Goodman, Sherri and Marisol Maddox. “China’s Growing Arctic Presence.” China-US Focus.
November 19, 2018. https://www.chinausfocus.com/finance-economy/chinas-growing-arctic-presence
10
Woityra, William. “China Can’t Be Trusted in the Arctic. Proceedings. December 2019. Vol.
145/12/1,402.
11
Devyatkin, Pavel. "Russia's Arctic Strategy: Aimed at Conflict or Cooperation? (Part I)." The
Arctic Institute. February 6, 2018. https://www.thearcticinstitute.org/russias-arctic-strategy-aimed-
conflict-cooperation-part-one/
12
Staalesen, Atle. “It’s an order from the Kremlin: shipping on Northern Sea Route to reach 80
million tons by 2024.” The Barents Observer. May 15, 2018.
7still represents a small portion of total its military buildup is primarily for economic
global shipping, it is still a lofty goal for an reasons, presenting the Northern Sea Route
environmentally sensitive region which does as a maritime toll road through the Arctic,
not yet have fully developed emergency and seeking to monetize the route by
response capabilities. Russia seeks to requiring transit vessels to pay a “toll” for
monetize the Northern Sea Route as a new military escort through the shallow waters
access route from China to Europe which, close to the Russian coastline. However, it
as the ice melts, will presumably be is clear that Russia would be able to use
available for several months each year. This these forces and capabilities for other
could cut up to 15 days off the current purposes as well. Just last month Russia
route via the Suez Canal and the Strait of tested a hypersonic missile for the first time
Malacca. It is noteworthy that President in the Arctic17, and it plans to launch its first
Putin has stated that he sees the Northern weaponized icebreaker, Ivan Papanin by
Sea Route as a future “global, competitive 2023.18 In short, China and Russia are
transport artery” that is “the key to the opportunistically expanding their power and
development of the Russian Arctic and the influence in direct response to a melting
regions of the Far East.”13 Arctic, and this will have significant
consequences for U.S. interests.
Militarily, Russia has been upgrading
its bases along the Northern Sea Route and The increased presence of Russian
exerting increasingly aggressive behavior and Chinese vessels in Arctic waters near
against our High North allies and partners. the U.S. presents other risks as well.
Russia has violated Swedish14 airspace, Among the new risks in a rapidly changing
simulated attacking northern Norway15 and Arctic, one that “keeps me up at night,” is a
tested electronic warfare capabilities, potential nuclear shipping incident in Arctic
including the jamming of GPS systems waters. Russia’s nuclear safety record is
during the NATO exercise Trident Juncture, deeply concerning, from Chernobyl, to the
and in days since, as well.16 Russia claims Kursk submarine sinking in 2000 to the
https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic/2018/05/its-order-kremlin-shipping-northern-sea-route-
increase-80-million-tons-2024
13
Staalesen, Atle. “Russia’s Putin to turn Northern Sea Route into global shipping artery.” Eye on
the Arctic. May 15, 2018. https://www.rcinet.ca/eye-on-the-arctic/2018/05/15/arctic-shipping-russia-
policy-international-kremlin/
14
Sweden: Russian Military Planes Briefly Violated Airspace.” Associated Press. January 24,
2019. https://apnews.com/097a3fd978f14f4e9a7f4e5cb4d1d600
15
Nilsen, Thomas. “11 Russian Fighter Jets Made Mock Attack on Norwegian Arctic Radar.” The
Barents Observer. February 12, 2019. https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2019/02/11-russian-
fighter-jets-made-mock-attack-norwegian-arctic-radar
16
Staalesen, Atle. "GPS Jamming on Agenda as Russian Defence Delegation Sat down for Talks
in Oslo." The Independent Barents Observer. March 18, 2019.
https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2019/03/gpsjamming-agenda-russian-defence-delegation-
sits-down-talks-oslo.
17
Devitt, Polina. “Russia Tests Hypersonic Missile in Arctic, TASS cites Source.” Reuters.
November 30, 2019. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-arctic-missiles/russia-tests-hypersonic-
missile-in-arctic-tass-cites-sources-idUSKBN1Y40BB
18
“Russian Shipyard Launches Missile-Carrying Icebreaker.” The Maritime Executive. October 28,
2019. https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/russian-shipyard-launches-missile-carrying-icebreaker
82019 failed recovery of the Skyfall missile • “If a nuclear incident of this type
and the nuclear submarine which caught on occurs, it is likely to become an
fire. These incidents reveal a Russian incident of national significance and
tendency to not only withhold critical an incident command structure will
incident information about extent and be established. A nuclear accident in
severity of radioactive contamination but to shallow water has the potential to
actually cover the incidents up in an become a very serious incident.”
attempt to evade accountability. This
• “Important predictive capabilities for
irresponsible practice has implications for
situational awareness and informing
Coast Guard and partner agency mission
response decisions does not
planning in responding to a crisis in the
currently exist for winter Arctic
Arctic.
conditions.”
To help prepare for future such
• “The US Arctic currently lacks
incidents, a scenario demonstration was
multiple facets of both operational
conducted earlier this year by the Council
and research infrastructure needed
on Strategic Risks, Sandia National Labs and
to provide key elements of both
the Wilson Center’s Polar Institute at the
short and long-term response to a
Arctic Futures 2050 conference. With Coast
major winter-time incident.”
Guard and Alaskan Native community
participation, we demonstrated "how a • “There must be a strong indigenous
table-top exercise can be used to bring voice and participation in the
science, indigenous and policy communities response effort. Arctic indigenous
together to develop information, ideas and communities have important
proposed actions to drive future research knowledge to inform response
directions, policy initiatives and planning for decisions and must be part of
emergency response in the Arctic of 2050. response decisions.”
This exercise used as a triggering event an • "This incident has the potential to
Arctic maritime incident that takes place in rapidly become a major international
the year 2050 in which a Chinese-owned incident. Communication lines with
LNG tanker collides with its Russian nuclear- Russian (and other countries’)
powered icebreaker escort in a winter institutions will be important.
storm.” Confidence Building Measures could
Key takeaways from the exercise help to prepare both the U.S. and
include:19 Russia for a future contingency.”
• “The initial operational response to ___________________________________
any major Arctic shipping incident #3: We have a Responsibility to
will follow well established search Prepare for changing Arctic conditions
and rescue protocols and will be led and the Coast Guard needs to enhance
by the U.S.Coast Guard.” its operating capabilities in the Arctic,
19
Goodman, Sherri, Peter Davies, Jim Townsend, Marisol Maddox. “Inclusive Planning for
Changing Arctic Futures: Demonstrating a Scenario-Based Discussion.” Council on Strategic Risks.
September 5, 2019 https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2019/09/19/planning-for-a-changing-arctic-a-
scenario-based-discussion-paper/
9from additional ice breaking, to the “polar security cutter, aviation
improved domain awareness (mapping assets and autonomous systems.
and charting), communications and Today, the Coast Guard has limited
research capabilities. ice breaking capability that must
fulfill missions at both poles,
As former Secretary of Defense
including Antarctica. As the
Mattis stated in 2018, “We need to up our
Strategic Outlook diplomatically
game in the Arctic.” While the Coast Guard
states: “This national fleet does not
has a long and storied tradition of Arctic
currently have the capability or
operations, for which I have deep respect,
capacity necessary to assure access
in the climate era we also need to enable
in the high latitudes.” The
the Coast Guard to “up its game in the
Administration and Congress have
Arctic,” to meet its essential missions. As
authorized one new polar security
the Coast Guard Strategic Outlook states:
cutter; however, the Coast Guard
“The United States is an Arctic Nation, and
needs at least 6, of which 3 are
the United States Coast Guard has served
“medium” and 3 are “heavy,”
as the lead Federal agency for homeland
according to its own requirements.
security, safety and environmental
And from an acquisition standpoint,
stewardship in the Arctic region for over
it is financially preferable to conduct
150 years.”
a multiple buy, as a single vessel will
Among the emerging needs the U.S. have very high unit costs. At least
has in a changing Arctic is a strategic deep one vessel in the Polar Security
water port. Currently the closest deep water Cutter fleet should be science-ready
port to the U.S. Arctic is 800 miles away in so they are able to continue serving
Kodiak, Alaska. That is inadequate in the as a platform for scientific research
climate era with increased navigation, that is critical to domain awareness
tourism, and other sea-based traffic and the and detection of changes over
accompanying risks for search and rescue. time.20 Additionally, the Coast Guard
An Arctic deep water port is a strategic needs modern aviation capability for
initiative that the U.S. government, search and rescue, as well as the
engaging the private sector in a financially autonomous systems that are able
meaningful way, needs to plan for future to substantially enhance a variety of
maritime safety and other operations. Coast Guard mission sets, from
The U.S. has fallen behind in illegal fishing detection to mapping
equipping our forces to operate safety and and charting.
securely in a changing Arctic. There are 3 2. Improve Arctic Domain Awareness
key components to the Coast Guard’s and Communications capabilities.
operational capability in the Arctic. Each one Given the rapidly changing Arctic
requires additional support: environmental and operating
1. Speed the deployment of additional conditions, it is essential that we
ice breaking capability in the form of improve U.S. Arctic, including
20
Congressional Research Service. “Coast Guard Polar Security Cutter (Polar Icebreaker)
Program: Background and Issues for Congress.” Congressional Research Service. October 4, 2019.
https://fas.org/sgp/crs/weapons/RL34391.pdf
10maritime, domain awareness capabilities in the Arctic which includes
capabilities. Maritime Domain improving national communications
Awareness is a diverse set of infrastructure for broadband and satellite
capabilities, some of which are coverage to support security as well as
within the Coast Guard’s budget, but commercial, recreational, and subsistence-
many of which are supported by based activities.
other agencies, and which also need
In 2019, the White House has
to be harnessed from local
announced an intent to develop a national
communities with direct
strategy on mapping, exploring and
observations of the changing Arctic
characterizing the U.S. Exclusive Economic
conditions. As the Coast Guard
Zone (EEZ) and the shoreline and near-
Strategic Outlook states, Arctic
shoreline areas of Alaska. Some of our
domain awareness requirements
current Arctic charts date back to the 1800s
include:
and are wholly inadequate for today’s
1. Information about national needs. Only around 4% of Arctic waters off
defense and security the coast of Alaska have been charted to
modern standards.21 As the recent White
2. Information on vessel crew,
House Memorandum stated, “Data and
passenger and cargo carried
information about the ocean help to
3. Pollution detection and tracking advance maritime commerce, domestic
capabilities seafood production, healthy and sustainable
4. Weather and environmental fisheries, coastal resilience, energy
observations, including ice production, tourism and recreation,
reconnaissance environmental protection, national and
homeland security, and other
5. Assessment of living marine interests. Such activities contribute more
resources than $300 billion per year of economic
6. Assessment of human activity activity, 3 million jobs, and $129 billion in
and infrastructure. wages.”22 Equally important, improved
mapping and charting will help us prepare
Consider again the possible nuclear
to operate in a changing Arctic, and to
shipping incident with a Russian nuclear -
improve our predictive capabilities for better
powered icebreaker and a Chinese LNG
decision making.
vessel in the Bering Strait. Information on
all of the above will be essential in 3. Ensure the U.S. maintains its
responding to such a crisis should it occur. competitive edge in Arctic research
That is why we need to act today to and development. For decades, the
increase our MDA and communications U.S. has supported extensive
21
Cole, Dermot. “Outdated navigational charts are an Arctic maritime disaster in the making.”
Arctic Today. September 10, 2018. https://www.arctictoday.com/outdated-navigational-charts-arctic-
maritime-disaster-making/
22
“Memorandum on Ocean Mapping of the United States Exclusive Economic Zone and the
Shoreline and Nearshore of Alaska.” The White House. November 19, 2019.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/memorandum-ocean-mapping-united-states-exclusive-
economic-zone-shoreline-nearshore-alaska/
11research on the Arctic, from marine about sustainable management of a fishery
to terrestrial systems, from space to in this long ice-covered area.23 Over the
ecosystems. This research, next decade, however, many nations will be
conducted by leading universities seeking to develop this knowledge, and we
across the nation as well as federal need to ensure there is sufficient scientific
agency laboratories, is a core knowledge to support sustainable
component of America’s competitive management and prevent some of the
edge in the Arctic. The Coast worst outcomes of climate change.
Guard’s icebreakers are host to the
The proposed High Arctic Research
science missions conducted aboard
Center (HARC) facility at Oliktok Point is a
to gather direct observations and
great example of a physical location that
data about Arctic conditions.
would greatly complement the development
America’s scientific enterprise, and
of homeland security and defense missions
research and development
in the Arctic and support a re-established
capabilities, have long supported
leadership position in the region for the
both our overall security posture and
United States. The proposed Center, “could
our global engagement strategies,
serve as a physical launch pad for scientists,
as well as enabling us to better
giving them year-round, multi-domain
understand the natural world.
access for research, development, Arctic
Nowhere is this more important than
technology testing, and domain
in Arctic research. Today, China,
awareness…. Research and extensive real-
Russia, and others are increasing
time observations in the Arctic could help
their research capabilities both
researchers collect data that would fill
within and about the Arctic.
critical gaps in monitoring, providing real-
Research helps us better understand time information, enhancing forecasting,
the pace of Arctic climate change and and creating better simulations for planning
prepare for this changed future. For purposes to serve security and commercial
example, as global fish stocks migrate as enterprises.”24 The High Arctic Research
waters warm toward the poles, we need to Center would enable testing and
better understand how to manage emerging demonstration of technologies for multiple
and potential fisheries, and growing Coast Guard missions.
potential for illegal and unregulated fishing.
__________________________________
The Agreement to Prevent Unregulated
High Seas Fisheries in the Central Arctic #4: Leadership on Arctic security is
Ocean signed by multiple nations, including essential to America’s overall security
the U.S., Russia and China and others in and must be a whole of U.S.
2018, is a good example of acting with the government and partnership effort,
precautionary principle where we do not yet including allies, communities, private
have sufficient knowledge to make decisions sector, and others, that serve to
23
“Agreement to Prevent Unregulated High Seas Fisheries in the Central Arctic Ocean.”
https://www.mofa.go.jp/mofaj/files/000449233.pdf
24
Goodman, Sherri, Peter Davies, Marisol Maddox, Clara Summers. “Research in a Changing
Arctic Must be Prioritized.” New Security Beat. October 8, 2019.
https://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2019/10/research-changing-arctic-prioritized/
12undergird the rules-based order and changing conditions increase
support resilience. demands for Coast Guard support
and response and stretch scarce
The Coast Guard and U.S. military
resources even further.
are not alone in the Arctic. The keys to
American leadership on Arctic Security are • Arctic Coast Guard Forum: Another
partnerships and unity of effort. This term important security layer in the Arctic
refers to an inclusive approach that is the partnership the Coast Guard
marshals all elements of capability, has with the Arctic Coast Guard
including the joint and interagency Forum. Appropriately characterized
community, state and local government, as a bridge between “diplomacy and
industry, non-profit and academic operations,” the Arctic Coast Guard
organization. Key partnerships for the U.S., Forum enables the Coast Guards of
and in particular the Coast Guard, in the the eight Arctic nations both to
Arctic include: strengthen working relationships,
conduct exercises and combined
• Alaska Native Community: those
operations, and coordinate
who live in the region are often best
emergency response, which becomes
able to “ground truth” observations
more necessary as climate
and will know what’s happening long
challenges mount.
before many in Washington do.
They observe trends and recognize • Innovation and Technology: The U.S.
patterns that may not be has always been a technology and
distinguishable to others. That is innovation leader. As the Arctic
why it is essential to “co-produce” changes, we need to harness that
knowledge with those closest to the capability to advance low-carbon and
Arctic domain. Both the Coast sustainable systems for Arctic
Guard and other interagency operations, observations and
partners have been including the planning. For example, wind and
Alaska Native Community in solar-powered ocean drones are now
developing both research helping to map the Arctic. Other
approaches and improving domain types of autonomous systems and
awareness. As the Coast Guard advanced technologies will help keep
Strategic Outlook states: “Alaska the U.S. at the forefront of Arctic,
Natives are a critical layer of security low carbon and resilience innovation
in the Arctic.” The Alaska Native in the Arctic.
communities are also on the
• International agreements and
frontlines of climate disruption, from
institutions that are the backbone of
coastal erosion occurring at many
the rules based order—America’s
villages, to permafrost thaw
security in the Arctic depends on key
disrupting traditional livelihoods, to
international organizations and
harmful algal blooms (HABs)
agreements. They are even more
harming fish stocks and megafauna,
important in an era of great power
to extreme weather storms
competition.
disrupting the critical supply chain of
fuel and food delivery. These
13-Arctic Council: The Arctic Council 5. Reducing further climate risk
provides an important intergovernmental through sustainable and low-carbon
forum for the 8 Arctic nations, Indigenous approaches across all domains using
People’s organizations, observer states and a Responsibility to Prepare and
non-governmental organizations to engage Prevent approach.
on a wide range of Arctic issues (other than
__________________________________
military security). It has also developed
important agreements on Search and Conclusion: Arctic leadership for the
Rescue, Oil Spill Preparedness and 21st century
Response, and Scientific Cooperation, that As the Coast Guard Strategic Outlook
serve to strengthen cooperation in uncertain appropriately states:
times.
“Arctic Security requires leadership
- Law of the Sea Convention: the Law of and cooperation across multiple national
the Sea Convention (UNCLOS) continues to security areas of interest, including border
be an important legal framework for the security, economic security, environmental
Coast Guard, the U.S. military and others security, food security, freedom of
operating in the region, despite the fact that navigation, geopolitical stability, human
the United States has not yet ratified it. safety, national defense, natural resource
-International Maritime Organization protection and assertion and protection of
(IMO) – the IMO’s Polar Code, adopted in U.S. sovereign rights.”
2014, establishes important standards for America’s leadership on climate security is
design, construction, equipment, operation, the other essential element to advancing
training and environment protection and America’s Arctic interests in the 21st
safety for ships operating in polar regions. century.
Recommendations The globally devastating Second
To summarize my recommendations World War precipitated the creation of an
above, here are the key areas where international system led by the United
Congressional support and action is needed: States, designed to protect the sovereignty
of states against external aggression and
1. Advancing the acquisition of polar
decrease the likelihood of conflict between
security cutters, and structurally
nations. This is the world order we are
equip them to carry out scientific
trying to preserve today. However, the
research.
rapid rate of climatic change—combined
2. Increasing MDA capabilities in with other global threats and the increasing
conjunction with other agencies. stress on security that follows—means that
3. Supporting continued Arctic research this system must adapt and adapt quickly.
and development, demonstration, The U.S. should lead that effort, just as it
led the effort to ensure global stability after
test and evaluation across multiple
the Second World War.
agencies.
Fortunately, the difference between
4. Mapping and charting Alaskan
today and major global disruptions of the
waters and near shoreline for
past is that we can spot impending disasters
maritime safety.
earlier and more easily. Though the risks
14are unprecedented, our foresight is
unprecedented as well. Technological
developments have given us predictive tools
that enhance our ability to anticipate and
mitigate threats. In short, we have the
ability to make our communities, institutions
and individuals more resilient to a broad
range of threats. This foresight underscores
a responsibility to advance resilient
solutions that are commensurate to the
threat. That is our “Responsibility to
Prepare and Prevent” which is most evident
in what our Coast Guard needs to do to
continue operating safely and securely in
the changing Arctic. If we don’t, we’ll either
have to watch our adversaries take the
lead, or failing that, bear witness to an
increasingly unstable world.
15DISRUPTIVE GEOPOLITICS AND THE ARCTIC
Geir Westgaard
Vice President, Equinor1
The post-Cold War era is over. Geopolitics has become more disruptive. The main forces
of order and stability in the international system have weakened. The balance of power has
weakened. The risk of great power rivalry and confrontation has increased. Economic
interdependence has weakened. A backlash against globalization has led to a surge in
protectionist and nativist sentiments. Global governance has weakened. The rules of the game,
in politics and business, have become more contested. Institutions, norms and laws count for
less than they used to.
Disruptive geopolitics has also spilled over into the Arctic. Still, the region has seen less
dramatic change than captions such as the “scramble for the Arctic” or the “new great game”
would seem to indicate. Although climate change remains a key driver of developments in the
Arctic, economic activity (especially oil/gas and shipping) has yet to pick up as expected. While
great power competition in the region has intensified, Russia, the United States and China all
approach Arctic policy with a combination of status quo/cooperative and revisionist elements.
Notwithstanding Russia’s much-hyped planting of the flag on the seabed of the North Pole in
the summer of 2007, the Arctic has not been conclusively transformed from an arena of
cooperation to an arena of conflict in the intervening years.
Introduction In the words of New York Times
columnist Thomas Friedman, the world was
As the Cold War ended, the world
flat. The game was positive-sum or win-win.
entered a period of benign geopolitics. This
The attractiveness or soft power of the
is when globalization reached its prime in
West was at an all-time high. The West had
the 1990s and early 2000s. It’s when
just emerged victorious in the ideological
countries decided to follow the example or
and geopolitical struggle with communism
recipe of the West. They liberalized,
and the Soviet Union. Francis Fukuyama
privatized and democratized, all in order to
argued that humanity had reached the end
create a level playing field, attract foreign
of history: “the end-point of mankind’s
investment and spur growth. The result, as
evolution and the universalization of
we know, was increased capital flows,
Western liberal democracy as the final form
increased trade and increased economic
of human government.”
growth.
1
Geir Westgaard is a former Norwegian diplomat. Between 2006 and 2008 he coordinated the
formulation and execution of his government’s first High North strategy. Mr. Westgaard is currently vice
president at Equinor, an international energy company. The views expressed in this essay are solely
those of the author and should not be attributed to any institutional affiliation.
16Geopolitics has since become more also see it in China’s island building in the
disruptive. This is because the main forces South China Sea, which has assumed
of order and stability in the international foreign policy prominence equal to that of
system have all weakened over the last 15+ Taiwan and Tibet.
years: the balance of power has weakened;
Can China continue to rise
economic interdependence has weakened;
peacefully? That is the key question for
global governance has weakened.
world politics in the 21st century. The
Balance of Power answer is that it depends on the actions of
both China and its rivals, especially the U.S.
The balance of power has been
History teaches us that rapid shifts in the
upset by the decline of the West and the
balance of power can be profoundly
rise of the Rest. With the rise of China and
destabilizing. We know that conflict often
other emerging markets, power in the
ensues when a rising power causes fear and
international system has shifted from the
insecurity in an established power. This is
West to the East. This trend has become
what Harvard University’s Graham Allison
more pronounced since the global financial
refers to as the “Thucydides trap”. We also
crisis of 2007-2008.
know that China, Russia and other major
The West didn’t look much like a powers won’t acquiesce to American or
winner in the wake of the Great Recession. Western leadership today the way they did
The European Union started fraying after in the 1990s and early 2000s.
the global financial crisis and has struggled
Economic Interdependence
to get its mojo back ever since. There’s
been one crisis on top of another: the A backlash against globalization has
eurozone crisis, the crisis with Russia over led to a surge in economic nationalism,
Ukraine, the refugee crisis, Brexit. The especially in the West. It is particularly
United States is also in relative decline. It noteworthy how the United States and the
suffers from internal political dysfunction United Kingdom, countries who were the
and decay. Yet, America’s capacity to play a architects of neoliberal economic policies
global leadership role is still second to none. and globalization, have turned towards
It’s the will to lead that has been seriously protectionism and nativism. Globalization
eroded. The U.S. has arguably been in tends to increase inequality within states
strategic retreat since the overreach of the even as it reduces inequality between
George W. Bush presidency, with its costly states, and it is increased inequality that
and unsuccessful wars in Afghanistan and has given politics in much of the West an
Iraq. insurgent or populist quality over the last
few years. This explains why the British
Under Xi Jinping, the spectacular
voted for Brexit and the Americans voted
rise of China as a global economic
for Trump in 2016.
powerhouse has been accompanied by
greater assertiveness in foreign policy. If people see their own lives
China is no longer abiding by Deng improving, they tend to be sanguine about
Xiaoping’s maxim: bide your time, hide your the lives of others improving even more.
strength. We see this in China’s Belt and However, when their own living standards
Road Initiative, its hyper ambitious global have declined, and they expect their
development strategy launched in 2013. We children’s to be even worse, resentment
17against those who are doing better tends to fallen due to automation. The third is
grow. Globalization is also leaving many concern about security of supply, i.e. the
people in the West feeling disempowered growing realization that long and complex
and disconnected. They see decisions that supply chains create both political and
shape their lives being taken by people who logistical risk.
aren’t like them, in places that feel far
Global Governance
away, whether in booming capital cities,
central banks or corporate boardrooms. The rules governing international
During the UK referendum campaign, the relations are increasingly contested, as are
slogan that resonated the most was the the institutions and processes designed to
promise to “take back control”. apply these rules, such as Russia’s attempt
to undo the post-Cold War order in Europe
A surge in anti-trade rhetoric
through annexation of Crimea and incursion
globally has been accompanied by a rise in
into Eastern Ukraine.
protectionist measures, both tariffs and
non-tariff barriers. China is widely seen as The Soviet Union was the last
having flaunted the rules of international traditional empire to collapse and Russia is
trade by limiting market access, forcing still struggling to come to terms with this.
technology transfers and stealing The history of decolonization tells us that it
intellectual property. Under Trump, the U.S. is easier to shed overseas colonies than to
has responded by engaging in tariff let go of contiguous or near-contiguous
warfare. “America First” means using territory. Russia suffers from a form of
Washington’s economic power to force PTSD or phantom pain that has left an
concessions from individual trading partners enduring legacy of neo-imperialism.
rather than build coalitions that can But the conflict in and over Ukraine
strengthen the multilateral trading system. is not primarily about recolonization. It is
Trump tends to focus on the negative about Russia using military and other
aspects of trade and ignore all the benefits. means to limit the sovereignty of a post-
He sees America as a “loser” in global trade Soviet neighbor and make sure that no third
whereas the rest of the world views party, i.e. the West, can challenge Moscow’s
America and its multinational corporations influence. It is also an attempt to have the
as “winners”. current European order reconstituted on
Globalization has also entered a terms more favorable to Moscow. This is
phase in which some manufacturing is the order that was established in the dying
leaving “Factory Asia” and moving back days of the USSR, between 1989 and 1991.
closer to where the products are consumed, Russia has also joined China in pushing
a phenomenon known as reshoring or back against international institutions
nearshoring. In the words of GE’s former dominated by the West, partly through the
chief executive Jeff Immelt, “the days of establishment of competing institutions and
outsourcing are declining”. There are partly by insisting that the ways of the West
basically three reasons why international are not necessarily global norms and
business is reshoring. The first is the rise in standards. Moscow insists that the so-called
relative wage costs in manufacturing hubs Washington consensus of the 1990s has
like China. The second is that production been replaced by the Sinatra doctrine:
costs in more advanced economies have sovereign countries do things their way.
18The End of an Era faced by the governments and indigenous
people of the region. It promotes
In short, the world has moved from
cooperation, coordination and interaction in
benign geopolitics to disruptive geopolitics.
the fields of non-military or “soft” security,
It happened gradually at first, then more
focusing on issues of sustainable
rapidly after the Great Recession of 2007-
development, that is, environmental,
2008. The post-Cold War era is over, but we
economic and social/societal security. The
don’t yet know for sure what will replace it.
method of the Arctic Council is to build
Some think we might be approaching a G-
consensual knowledge and understanding
Zero world in which no country is able or
among its members. It works and is
willing to lead, be it by force or by example.
credited with having established “rules of
Others see the international system moving
the road” that strengthen overall security
towards bipolarity, with the U.S. and China
and stability in the region. The work of the
making up the poles. The U.S.-China rivalry
Arctic Council is supplemented by other
is multidimensional—political, economic,
regional institutions/organizations such as
technological and military—and could
the Barents Euro-Arctic Council and the
become a zero-sum game with global
Northern Forum.
ramifications. The COVID-19 crisis is also
likely to cause greater geopolitical The level of tension in the Arctic is
disruption, as great power rivalries intensify, much lower today than during the Cold War
international cooperation falters, the and much lower in the High North than in
economy securitizes and deglobalizes, most other parts of the world. Some believe
supply chains rupture and nativist that this is due to “Arctic exceptionalism”.
sentiments harden. The governments and people of the region
are said to have a strong preference for
The Arctic Then and Now
cooperation over competition because they
During the Cold War, military realize that you cannot get by without a
security dominated the geopolitics of the little help from friends and neighbors if you
Arctic. The region was at the center of the live under harsh and hostile Arctic
“balance of terror”. The shortest trajectory conditions. Yet, “Arctic exceptionalism” has
for an exchange of intercontinental ballistic not prevented disputes elsewhere from
missiles between the United States and the spilling over into the High North.
Soviet Union went across the North Pole.
The crisis over Ukraine, for example,
This made the Arctic crucially important for
now affects how Western countries view
the deployment of early warning radars and
Russia’s intentions, including its build-up of
missile defense systems on both sides.
military capabilities, in the Arctic. The West
While the region has retained much of its
has also explicitly linked Ukraine to the
military-strategic (i.e. nuclear) significance
Arctic through targeted financial and
to this day, the end of the Cold War saw
technological sanctions against oil and gas
considerable reduction in international
activity in the Russian Arctic. Moreover, the
tension and the emergence of new Arctic
region has not been cordoned off from the
governance structures focused on problem-
growing Sino-American rivalry either.
solving and cooperation.
Washington is increasingly skeptical of
The Arctic Council has become the China’s claim to be a “near-Arctic state” and
leading forum for addressing the issues ambitions to help build a Polar Silk Road.
19Planned Chinese investments in Greenland the promise of which remains largely
and Iceland have been of special concern, unfulfilled. The narrative is plainly wrong
providing context for president Trump’s about the Arctic being a thinly governed
much ridiculed offer to purchase Greenland space where it’s a free-for-all among
from Denmark. So, yes, the level of tension interested parties—Arctic, near-Arctic and
in the Arctic is relatively low. But it is higher non-Arctic states alike.
today than it was a decade ago.
When it comes to assessing the
False or Partial Narrative hydrocarbons potential of the Arctic, we
should keep in mind that one third of the
The Arctic narrative that’s been
Arctic area is land. This is where the finding
popularized since the Russians in the
and development costs are the lowest and
summer of 2007 used a mini submarine to
where most of the Arctic exploration and
plant their flag on the seabed of the North
production has taken place to date. It
Pole can be depicted as follows: The climate
started back in the 1960s with the
is changing and, as a result, so is the
discoveries of the Tazovskoye13 field in
physical environment of the Arctic. This
Tyumen and Prudhoe Bay in Alaska.
opens new opportunities for fisheries,
Another third of the Arctic area is
oil/gas and mineral extraction (uranium,
continental shelves, which have been very
rare earth metals, gold, diamonds, zinc,
lightly explored so far. The final third of the
nickel, coal, graphite, palladium and iron
Arctic area is deep ocean waters over 5000
ore), as well as maritime transport along
meters. This area remains inaccessible and
the Northern Sea Route and eventually
unexplored. The U.S. Geological Survey
across the Arctic Ocean. A scramble for
estimates that the Arctic contains 13% of
access to natural resources and economic
the world’s undiscovered oil, 30% of the
benefit has ensued. This is a “new great
world’s undiscovered natural gas and 20%
game” intensified by governance gaps and
of the world’s undiscovered natural gas
disputes over sovereignty.
liquids. These are estimates of technically
What’s beyond doubt here, is the recoverable resources. Commercial viability
effect of climate change on the Arctic. is a different matter, however, and largely
Climate change is a key driver of related to the global price of oil.
environmental, economic and social
The Arctic is a high-cost area of
developments—both opportunities and
operations. Under conditions of low oil
risks—in the region. Otherwise, the
price, exploration and production (E&P) in
narrative exaggerates the size of the
the region suffer reduced competitiveness.
economic prize. Most Arctic oil and gas, for
Several factors make Arctic E&P more
example, will likely not be competitive
expensive. Harsh, wintry conditions mean
under conditions of lower-for-longer oil
that equipment must be specially designed
prices and expectations of peak demand
to withstand frigid temperatures. Onshore,
within a decade or so. Additionally,
poor soil conditions often require special
investments in Russian oil and gas in the
preparation to prevent equipment and
Arctic will be hampered by Western
structures from sinking. Offshore, icepack
sanctions imposed after Moscow’s
can damage facilities and hinder shipment
annexation of Crimea and proxy war in
of personnel, materials, equipment and oil
Eastern Ukraine. High costs have also
for long periods of time. Remoteness makes
slowed the development of Arctic shipping,
20for long supply lines and increased To date, all members of the Arctic
transportation costs. Equipment redundancy Council (the 5 plus Finland, Iceland and
and a larger inventory of spare parts are Sweden), as well as the 13 non-Arctic
needed to ensure safety and reliability. countries that are observers to the Arctic
Council (France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the
Arctic shipping is subject to many of
Netherlands, China, Poland, India, South
the same cost drivers. The rapidly melting
Korea, Singapore, Spain Switzerland and
sea ice notwithstanding, Arctic shipping also
the United Kingdom), have by and large
faces safety and reliability challenges. While
accepted and respected this legal
destination shipping in the region has been
framework. While cooperation under the
stimulated by the Yamal-LNG project, the
Arctic Council is not considered binding
Northern Sea Route (NSR) still suffers from
under international law, two legally binding
under-developed infrastructure. The NSR,
agreements have, in fact, been drawn up
running along the coast of Siberia from the
under the Council. The first of these was
Kara Sea to the Bering Strait, is not yet
the Arctic Search and Rescue Agreement
routinely navigable. Its competitiveness is
signed in 2011. The second was the
also reduced by the opening of a second
Agreement on Marine Oil Pollution
lane of the Suez Canal and removal of the
Preparedness and Response in the Arctic,
piracy threat in the Indian Ocean.
which was signed in 2013. Contributing to
Contrary to popular belief, the Arctic the further strengthening of environmental
is neither terra nullius nor a legal no-man’s stewardship and governance in the Arctic
land. There is an interplay of interests, are also more recent agreements such as
power and law in the region that so far has the Polar Code to better regulate civilian
kept competition rather controlled and well maritime traffic in the Arctic, the Agreement
managed. So, while most of the Arctic may on Enhancing International Arctic Scientific
be wilderness, it is not lawless wilderness. Cooperation, and the ban on fishing in the
The five Arctic coastal states—Canada, Central Arctic Ocean.
Denmark (Greenland), Norway, Russia and
Great Powers: Russia in the Arctic
the United States—have all publicly
committed to resolving outstanding legal Russia has more at stake in the
issues through the framework of Arctic than most states do. It controls one-
international law, more specifically the UN quarter of the Arctic coastline and 40% of
Convention of the Law of the Seas the land area and is home to three-quarters
(UNCLOS). In the Ilulissat Declaration of of the Arctic’s population. Russia receives
2008, for example, the five countries state 20% of its GDP from Arctic economic
that: “The law of the sea provides for activities such as natural resources
important rights and obligations concerning extraction. In the post-Cold War era, Russia
the delineation of the outer limits of the has been looking for international partners
continental shelf, the protection of the to open its Arctic regions for development.
marine environment, including ice-covered Many in the West increasingly see Russia as
areas, freedom of navigation, marine a revisionist power, an unhappy camper
scientific research , and other uses of the who is playing a spoiler role in international
sea. We remain committed to this legal affairs. When it comes to Russia in the
framework and the orderly settlement of Arctic, however, the picture is far more
any possible overlapping claims.” nuanced.
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