Fashion Inspiration Trends - "FIT The Future!"
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Fashion Inspiration Trends – “FIT The Future!”
Inspiration design for Taiwanese ladies’ fashion brand U’db 2012 S/S.
By
Wen Li TSENG
A thesis submitted for the degree of Master of Arts
in the Faculty of Art and Design
De Montfort University
Leicester, UK
August, 2010
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Abstract
Fashion forecasting information is usually the main source of inspiration for designers searching
for design concepts. Reading the analysis of forecasting, designers understand the future trends
development and design the products to fulfil the needs in the market. This is the general process
by means the designers create the concepts and establish the initial design plan. At present, most
of the leading intelligence forecasting companies are based in Europe, and English, French, and
Italian are the mainly languages used in the publisher. On account of the language barriers and
high time pressure in the fashion industry, Fashion designers in Taiwan or China cannot transform
their ideas into the product design appropriately. Moreover, most of the design companies in
Taiwan attach more importance to the sales department instead of the design and development
department. Most of them are business-oriented companies. However, the design and
development department represents the core value in most successful brands or design
companies in Europe. As a result, having good sense of controlling the trends dynamic is a very
important mission for designers developing a brand.
Trends may be influenced by various influences: big factors such as the economic environment,
political situation, sustainable issues to technical expansion. Then there are small factors. For
example, one day Paris Hilton wears something special, which may cause a new trend in fashion.
Society, culture, and local different points of view can influence trends which are born, develop,
enlarge, last, and disappear. How does a trend happen? How does it spread? How long does it last?
Why does it disappear? They are all important points when a researcher observes a trend in the
cycle. There is not a forecasting machine which can create a trend book when people put all the
intelligent into it. The real trend is within the trend forecasters; it is internalized and cultivated.
The designers who accumulate rich experience in the industry and wide knowledge in fashion will
be able to forecast the future trend in the business. Having this kind of talent to help design
development and lead the design to the correct direction in the currently Taiwanese market is
important.
This research focuses on the dynamic of intelligence forecasting companies in the fashion industry
and the prediction methodology. Based on the secondary and primary research analysis, the
author proposed the fashion forecasting guide for target brand: U’db 2012 Spring / Summer. The
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forecasting report included the aspiration consumer board and three different concept collections:
Return to Nature, Create a Better Age, and Embrace Tomorrow. Reported to Taiwan and China
designers, the trend book was bilingual: English and Traditional Chinese.
Abstract in Chinese
趨勢資訊常常是服裝設計師找尋靈感方向的主要來源。從解讀趨勢資訊分析，瞭解未來流
行方向，再依循合適市場需求的方向發展商品設計，這通常是業界服裝設計師的前端設計
流程。目前，具有領到地位的趨勢公司，大多集中於歐洲，絕大多數的出版品也都採用英
文，法文，或義大利文發表。台灣或中國服裝自有品牌的設計師，有時因為語言隔閡，有
時因為高度時間壓力而無法順利將所得的趨勢資訊轉化至商品設計中。除此之外，台灣業
界的服裝設計公司大多以業務為導向，對於設計研發的支持度較低。在國外成熟的設計或
品牌公司，其設計研發部門都具有帶領公司發展的地位，是公司的核心資產。因此，確實
掌握流行趨勢的動向，對於品牌生命的發展具有極重要的意義。
影響趨勢報告的因素包含極廣，大至世界經濟環境，政治事件，環保議題到科技發展，小
至某位潮流明星某日的穿著都可能對服裝流行造成影響。從社會面，文化面，地區性各種
不同角度都可以看到不同的潮流在誕生，發展，延續，直到消失。潮流為什麼發生，如何
擴大，延續多久，為什麼退燒，整段流行生態循環都是觀察重點。世界上並沒有一種機
器，能夠將所有的資訊放入其中，最後跑出一份確切預知明天的報告書。真正的趨勢，是
內化的，是養成的。當設計師長期累積對市場的瞭解，對環境趨勢的變化，自然能養成預
測潮流的能力。目前台灣業界，正需要這樣的人才輔助設計發展，讓設計潮流引領設計往
正確的方向發展，滿足更多需求。
這份論文研究主要研究重心在於瞭解現有的趨勢報告公司生態，趨勢報告之產生與研究方
法。進而針對目標品牌 U’db：台灣流行女裝品牌，提出 2012 春夏之趨勢報告。報告內容包
含： 消費者看板與三系列的設計發想：重回自然懷抱，創造美好年代，與擁抱明天。報
告書針對台灣設計師設計，因此採用英語與繁體中文。
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Acknowledgement
First of all, I would like to thank the Taiwan Industrial Development Bureau and the Footwear and
Recreation Technology Research Institute who offered me the marvellous opportunity to study
overseas.
My appreciation goes to my fist supervisor Dr. Robert Chen and my second supervisor Mr. Martin
Jones who both not only provided useful suggestions but also inspired my creativities in design.
Further thanks to Ms. Inge Corsden, the chairman of LivingStone Studio, who supplied precise
opinions to my project and worthwhile assessments to my work.
I would like to express the depth of my immense gratitude to all the people who were involved in
this postgraduate course and the research project. Special thanks go to the English In-sessional
teacher: Mr. Larry Brown and Ms. Jan Martin.
To my family and friends, I would not have been able to complete this study without your full
support.
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List of Figures
Figure 1.2-1 Time management of literature review. ........................................................................ 6
Figure 1.2-2 Time management of forecasting dynamic research. ................................................... 7
Figure 1.2-3 Time management of Interview..................................................................................... 8
Figure 1.2-4 Time management of Observing the Target Brand Proposal. ....................................... 9
Figure 1.2-5 Time management of prototype making. .................................................................... 10
Figure 1.2-6 Time management of testing. ...................................................................................... 11
Figure 1.3-1 Research Methodology framework. ............................................................................ 12
Figure 1.4-1 Mind map. .................................................................................................................... 13
Figure 2-1.7-1 Literature review structure. ...................................................................................... 17
Figure 2.2-1 Literature review search plan. ..................................................................................... 17
Figure 3.2-1 The author with Ms. Inge in LivingStone Studio, London, UK...................................... 23
Figure 3.2-2 Interview SOP. .............................................................................................................. 24
Figure 3.3-1 Observation framework. .............................................................................................. 27
Figure 3.4-1 Questionnaire analysis. ................................................................................................ 35
Figure 3.4-2 Questionnaire analysis. ................................................................................................ 35
Figure 4.3-1 Design Process framework........................................................................................... 38
List of Tables
Table 1.5-1 Gantt Chart part 1. ........................................................................................................ 14
Table 1.5-2 Gantt Chart part 2. ........................................................................................................ 15
iv | P a g e
Contents
Abstract ........................................................................................................................ i
Abstract in Chinese....................................................................................................... ii
Acknowledgement ...................................................................................................... iii
List of Figures ...............................................................................................................iv
List of Tables ................................................................................................................iv
Contents ...................................................................................................................... 1
Chapter 1: Introduction ................................................................................................ 4
1.1. Background and Motivation of the research ..................................................................... 4
1.2. Aims and Objectives ........................................................................................................... 5
1.3. Methodology .................................................................................................................... 12
1.4. Research Structure, Framework, and Mind maps............................................................ 13
1.5. Project and Time management ........................................................................................ 14
1.6. Related Research Works .................................................................................................. 16
1.7. Summary .......................................................................................................................... 16
Chapter 2: Review of the literature ............................................................................. 17
2.1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 17
2.2. Search Plan ....................................................................................................................... 17
2.3. Fashion Industry and Fashion Forecasting ....................................................................... 18
2.3.1. Forecasting definition and background.................................................................... 18
2.3.2. Fashion forecasting in design process ...................................................................... 18
2.3.3. Fashion forecasting business dynamic ..................................................................... 19
2.4. Fashion Forecasting Methodology ................................................................................... 19
2.4.1. Fashion forecasting process ..................................................................................... 19
2.4.2. Evolution of a trend.................................................................................................. 19
2.4.3. Trend analysis and synthesis .................................................................................... 20
2.4.4. Fashion Forecasting Process .................................................................................... 20
2.5. Key Factors in Trends: Analyzing Methodology ............................................................... 20
2.5.1. Colour forecasting .................................................................................................... 20
2.5.2. Textile development................................................................................................. 21
2.5.3. Design concepts and style directions ....................................................................... 21
2.5.4. Consumer research .................................................................................................. 21
2.5.5. Retail forecasting...................................................................................................... 21
2.6. Summary .......................................................................................................................... 22
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Chapter 3: Primary research (Interview Survey) .......................................................... 23
3.1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 23
3.2. Interview Survey............................................................................................................... 23
3.2.1. Aims and Objectives ................................................................................................. 23
3.2.2. Interview SOP Design and Method .......................................................................... 23
3.2.3. Analysis of Interview Results .................................................................................... 25
3.2.4. Summary .................................................................................................................. 26
3.3. Observation Survey .......................................................................................................... 27
3.3.1. Introduction.............................................................................................................. 27
3.3.2. Aims and Objectives ................................................................................................. 27
3.3.3. Observation Design and Method ............................................................................. 27
3.3.4. Analysis of Observation and Results ........................................................................ 28
3.3.5. Summary .................................................................................................................. 33
3.4. Questionnaire Survey ....................................................................................................... 33
3.4.1. Introduction.............................................................................................................. 33
3.4.2. Aims and Objectives ................................................................................................. 34
3.4.3. Questionnaire Design and Method .......................................................................... 34
3.4.4. Analysis of Questionnaire Results ............................................................................ 34
3.4.5. Summary .................................................................................................................. 36
Chapter 4: Design and Development ........................................................................... 37
4.1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 37
4.2. Ideas / Sketches Development ......................................................................................... 37
4.3. Design Processes and Prototype Development ............................................................... 38
4.4. Design Rationale............................................................................................................... 39
4.5. Design Structure and Consumer Aspiration Board .......................................................... 39
4.6. Design Concept Development .......................................................................................... 40
4.6.1. Return to Nature ...................................................................................................... 40
4.6.2. Create a Better Age .................................................................................................. 42
4.6.3. Embrace Tomorrow.................................................................................................. 43
4.7. Evaluation ......................................................................................................................... 45
4.7.1. Design Leaders in the UK.......................................................................................... 45
4.7.2. Fashion Designers in Taiwan .................................................................................... 46
4.8. Final designs or prototypes .............................................................................................. 46
4.9. Summary .......................................................................................................................... 46
Chapter 5: Conclusion and Recommendations ............................................................ 47
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5.1. Conclusion ........................................................................................................................ 47
5.2. Recommendations ........................................................................................................... 48
Appendices ........................................................................ Error! Bookmark not defined.
A1 Board (p1/ 3 pages)..................................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined.
A1 Board (p2/ 3 pages)................................................................................................................. 50
A1 Board (p3/ 3 pages)................................................................................................................. 51
Questionnaire Sheet..................................................................................................................... 52
Consumer Board........................................................................................................................... 55
Design Work: Collection 1. Return to Nature............................................................................... 56
Design Work: Collection 2. Create A Better Age .......................................................................... 58
Design Work: Collection 3. Embrace Tomorrow .......................................................................... 60
Competitors Observation ............................................................................................................. 62
HREC Form.................................................................................................................................... 63
References ................................................................................................................. 69
Bibliography ............................................................................................................... 70
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Chapter 1: Introduction
1.1.Background and Motivation of the research
Forecasting is not magic practiced by a talented few with a gift of seeing the future.
(Levenbach & Cleary, 1981) It is a creative process that can be understood, performed, and
reported. Forecasting provides a way for executives to expand their thinking about change,
anticipate the future, and project the likely outcomes.
Forecasting is an important method for plan-makers to analyse the trends and make
decisions. In daily life, the weather forecast helps us to be aware of wearing the right clothing.
In the fashion industry, fashion forecast provides the designers with new ideas or
inspirations to follow up.
As a designer in the fashion industry in Taiwan for five years, fashion trends analysis is
always my favourite part of the process. However, in my working experience in Taiwan, some
companies did not consider this area serious enough, or they have a limited budget.
Moreover, most designers did not use the trends information in an appropriate way or failed
to transform the inspiration into their products. How can I provide an inspiration board to
U’db which particularly belongs to the brand and satisfy their trends information needs?
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1.2.Aims and Objectives
Aims:
To investigate the dynamic of fashion trends and the methodology.
To create a trend prediction model for U’db 2012 S/S: target lady’s fashion local brand in
Taiwan.
Objectives:
1. Literature Review Proposal.
2. Forecasting Dynamic Research Proposal
3. Interview with Ms. Inge Corsden
4. Observe the Target Brand Proposal
5. Prototype Proposal
6. Testing & Interview Proposal
5|PageO1. Literature Review Proposal
Aim:
The aim is to research the subject areas of the major project including ergonomics, materials,
workmanship, and service design.
Objectives:
1. To draw a searching plan
2. To search the information about fashion trends, fashion predict, and forecasting
methodology.
3. To search the websites about fashion trends, fashion predict, and forecasting methodology.
4. To review the information from books and websites.
5. To cite the useful data from books and websites.
6. To make the sourcing card for recording all the needed information.
7. To analyze all the collected sourcing.
8. To conclude.
9. To develop design rationales.
10. To write a report.
Expected Outcome(s):
1. A literature review proposal.
2. A literature review report.
3. To motivate initial ideas
4. To develop design
rationales
Time Management:
Figure 1.2-1 Time management of literature review.
6|PageO2. Forecasting Dynamic Research Proposal
Aim(s):
To understand the dynamic of the fashion forecast.
To compare the advantage and shortage of different forecasting.
Objectives:
1. To identify observed forecasting sourcing.
2. To survey the sourcing.
3. To collect the forecasting reports from different forecast companies.
4. To observe.
5. To compare the advantage and shortage of different forecasting.
6. To record by newspaper, note taking, pictures.
7. To analyze.
8. To compare the similar and different between different forecast companies.
9. To conclude.
Expected Outcome(s):
1. A research proposal.
2. A research report.
3. To develop design rationales.
Time Management:
Figure 1.2-2 Time management of forecasting dynamic research.
7|PageO3. Interview with Ms. Inge Corsden
Aim(s):
To understand how does the forecasting studio operating.
To propose the collaboration with Living Stone Studio.
Objectives:
1. To identify interviewee.
2. To make an appointment.
3. To develop the questions for the interview.
4. To develop SOP flowchart.
5. To interview.
6. To record by recording, note taking, and pictures taking.
7. To analyze the results.
8. To conclude.
9. To develop design rationales.
Expected Outcome(s):
1. An interview proposal.
2. An interview SOP flowchart.
3. An interview report.
4. To develop design rationales.
Time Management:
Figure 1.2-3 Time management of Interview.
8|PageO4. Observe the Target Brand Proposal
Aim(s):
To understand the brand target customer’s lifestyle, background, preference, from different
aspects: education, career, roles in family, income and so on.
To analyze the brand position in lady’s fashion brands in Taiwan.
Objectives:
1. To identify the target brand.
2. To identify the observation.
3. To collect the data of target consumers.
4. To gather the information of the target brand’s competitors.
5. To organize the observation.
6. To develop SOP flowchart.
7. To observe.
8. To record by note taking and pictures.
9. To analyze.
10. To figure the brand position and the consumer’s needs.
11. To conclude the results and develop design rationales.
Expected Outcome(s):
1. An observation proposal.
2. An observation report.
3. To develop design rationales.
Time Management:
Figure 1.2-4 Time management of Observing the Target Brand Proposal.
9|PageO5. Prototype Proposal
Aim(s):
To create and design develop forecasting boards for target brand.
Objectives:
1. To Brainstorm.
2. To make a proposal.
3. To gather all the trends information on the board.
4. To sketch based on the design rationales.
5. To do the self-evaluation.
6. To do the 1st discuss with tutors.
7. To revise the design development.
8. To make rough prototype.
9. To do the 2nd discuss with tutors.
10. To revise the design development.
11. To make the detail design on the prototype.
12. To confirm the prototype.
Expected Outcome(s):
1. A prototype design proposal
2. Sketch books.
3. Initial forecasting boards.
4. Forecasting websites.
5. Final forecasting boards.
Time Management:
Figure 1.2-5 Time management of prototype making.
10 | P a g eO6. Testing & Interview Proposal
Aim(s):
The aim is to test the prototype and get the feedback.
Objectives:
1. To make a testing proposal.
2. To identify the testing group.
3. To develop SOP flowchart.
4. To design evaluating questions.
5. To test the prototype.
6. To collect the feedback.
7. To analyze the results.
8. To conclude.
Expected Outcome(s):
6. A testing proposal
7. A feedback data.
8. A testing report.
Time Management:
Figure 1.2-6 Time management of testing.
11 | P a g e1.3.Methodology
Major Project
Secondary Research Primary Research
Literature Review Observation
Fashion Trends Dynamic Forecast Methodology Interview
Conclusion and Conclude the Results
Development
Analysis of Collection
Investigation of Target Brand
Development of Design
Evaluation
Figure 1.3-1 Research Methodology framework.
The major project research started with Secondary research. The literature review is aimed at
understanding the fashion trend dynamic and the forecasting methodology. The sources were
textbooks, journals and the website. The detailed search process is shown in Chapter Two.
Meanwhile, the Primary research data is continuously gathered, which is divided into three parts:
observation, interview, and questionnaire. Firstly, in the observation, it is focused on the fashion
forecasting companies dynamic: investigating how the competitors operate. Secondly, an
interview was guided to understand the fashion forecasting environment in London and the
collaboration between the studio and Aisan fashion companies. Furthermore, making sense of the
forecasting methodology is another consequential issue in the process. Thirdly, a questionniare
survey was conducted to investigate the needs for fashion forecasting information in Taiwan
fashion design industry. The detailed processes of the primary research are shown in Chapter
Three.
Collating all the Secondary and Primary reserch information, all the intelligence was concluded
into analysis. According to the analysis and results, the design rationales were deduced. The
following design development follows the design rationales to fulfill the consumers’ needs.
12 | P a g e1.4.Research Structure, Framework, and Mind maps
.
Peclers
Wgsn
Brands
Forecast
Trends
Internet View
Profit &
Survey
Market Media Magazine
Operating
Living
Fashion Studio
Forecast
Inspiration Analyze Marketing
Service
Buyer: Fabric &
Street Fashion Brand Theme
Retail Color
Design Inspiration
Retailer
Style
Men’s wear
Salesperson Customer
Figure 1.4-1 Mind map.
13 | P a g e1.5.Project and Time management
Table 1.5-1 Gantt Chart Part 1.
Year 2009 2010
Quarter Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
Month Nov. Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Week 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Motivation
Background
Motivation
Major Project proposal presentation week
Aim and objective
Literature review
PDP-MP(iii) Assembly
Forecast defination/ background
Fashion trends dynamic
Collect & record
Sketch book
Fashion trends methodology
Survey and search
Draw a researching plan
Exam Board meeting (i)
Study on key factors in trends
Analyse VIEW magazine
PEST analysis
Sketch book
Deadline for re-submission (Semester I)
Interview Ms. Inge Corseden
Proposal to Interviewee
Develop questions for interview
Major Project interim presentation season
Interview Ms. Inge Corseden
Re-structing the direction
Conclude the results
Design work developments
14 | P a g eTable 1.5-2 Gantt Chart part 2.
Year 2009 2010
Activities
Quarter Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
Month Nov. Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Week 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Observe the aim brand
Identify observation object
Identify the aim bran
Objective 4
Organise the observation
Create the SOP brand
Observe
Record by images
Analyse aim brand’s market position
Conclude the results
Dissertation + Prototype
Brainstorm
Objective 5
Exam Board meeting (ii)
Develop the initial ideas
Discuss and revise
Confirm the design
Make sketches boards
Design a website
Sketch book
Testing
Make a test plan
Objective 6
Identify the testing group
Develop questions for the testing
Test the prototype
Analyse the results
Evaluation
Final presentation
15 | P a g e1.6.Related Research Works
The existence of design is on the purpose of solving problems and fulfilling the needs in the
market. The aim of this project was to provide the fashion forecasting report and service to meet
the needs in designers of local brands in Taiwan and China. The design outcome is a particular
fashion forecasting report for target local brand in Taiwan.
Playing the role as a fashion forecasting provider, it is important to keep eyes on the minor
changes in the fashion dynamic all the time. Be sensitive to the fashion environment, involving all
kinds fashion events. Visiting galleries and art exhibition will also enlarge the ability to be sensitive
of initial trends. There are no particular rules in the forecasting methodology, but internalization
and observation are the key ways to understand trends. Anything may change the future, in terms
of nature, fashion, art craft, historical and technology.
1.7.Summary
This chapter indicated the overall idea of the major project, from the aim and objective, the
methodologies to be utilised, to time management. The research structure was built step by step.
Providing clear definitions and organized structure for each section mentioned above, this project
research can be absolute smoothly and efficiently.
The project was mainly developed into five chapters: Introduction, Review of the Literature,
Primary Research, Design and Development, and Conclusion and Recommendations. The
comprehensive findings from the secondary and primary research were gathered to guide the
design rationales, which would be beneficial to the final design development.
16 | P a g eChapter 2: Review of the literature
Figure 2-1.7-1 Literature review structure.
2.1.Introduction
The project mainly relates to three aspects which are forecasting in fashion industry, fashion
forecasting methodology and key factors in trends report; therefore, the secondary study aims to
have a multi- dimensional understanding of the basic knowledge of the role of fashion forecasting
in the fashion industry and prediction process. In addition, the investigation of a target local brand
in Taiwan: U’db is included. A clear search structure was built to ensure that related fields are
involved. Reviewing and understanding the literature on the topics, a complete and intelligent
analysis will be carried out for the further design rationales, which can strongly support the
following design development of fashion forecasting report for U’db 2012 Spring / Summer.
2.2.Search Plan
Secondary Research
Fashion Industry and Forecasting Fashion Forecasting Methodology Key Factors in Trends
Definition and background Forecasting process Colour forecasting
Forecasting in design process Evolution of a trend Textile development
Forecasting business dynamic Trend analysis and synthesis Design concepts and style
Consumer research
Retail forecasting
Figure 2.2-1 Literature review search plan.
17 | P a g eThe secondary research mainly explores three dimensions: the basic understanding of forecasting,
the fashion forecasting methodology and the key factors in trends. Figure 2.2-1 shows the areas
that the secondary study covers.
2.3.Fashion Industry and Fashion Forecasting
2.3.1. Forecasting definition and background
Before defining fashion forecasting, it is better to understand what fashion is. Fashion is a
response from society and psychology; fashion can be seen as popular culture, as change;
fashion could be a transfer of meaning or an economic stimulus. Therefore, fashion
forecasting is to collect initial trends out of the public information and be sensitive to sniff out
the potential of the prevalent elements in the future. Faith Popcorn (1991), one of the
forecasters most often quoted in the media, calls the forecast “brailing the culture —looking
for the new, the fresh, and the innovative, and then analyzing in the whys behind it.” “Trend
chasers work in many kinds of firms—for designers, advertising agencies, fibre producers,
trade organizations, retail chains, and apparel brands. However, their job titles rarely include
variations on the word ‘forecaster.’ Instead, these executives have job titles that range from
director of design inspiration to manager of trend merchandising to fashion director, and
their backgrounds are just as varied.” (“The next,” 2003)
2.3.2. Fashion forecasting in design process
Fashion forecasting plays an increasing important role in the fashion business, which is a
process to span changing in color and styles, shifts in lifestyles and buying patterns. Base on
it, the designers and the decision makers can find different ways of doing business and plan
the best beneficial marketing strategy for their company. Normally, forecasting includes a
large field in design world; in fashion forecasting, it always contains the factors as follows:
fibers and fabrics, colour, style, display, and retailers. Forecasters observe the news in fashion
capitals, divide the information into street fashion, haute couture, express fashion, menswear
designers, women’s wear items, casual wear, lifestyle, and so on. In the fashion industry,
every section is interlocking; a slight move in one part may affect the whole situation, and the
information that provided from fashion trends deeply influences each segment.
18 | P a g e2.3.3. Fashion forecasting business dynamic
Forecasting is needed in the design industry, and fashion industry is no exception as well. In
the fashion business, there are many ways to gain the fashion forecasting information or
trends report from different media, such as internet, magazine, fashion shows, exhibitions,
particular trends book, and certain collaborative studios. The internet is the fastest and the
most popular in the industry, but some high-end design companies insist on making use of
manuscript book or other first-hand creative information. With the popularity of the internet,
getting the latest information is much easier, and fashion forecasting is facing its challenge as
how to provide the most unique and precise reports to their customers. On the other side,
within the knowledge explosion era, fashion forecasters can chase down the best saving
energy and cost way to operate the forecasting business.
2.4.Fashion Forecasting Methodology
2.4.1. Fashion forecasting process
The whole process of fashion industry could be divided into fibre companies, yarn producers,
weavers and knitters, apparel designers, and manufacturers, to retails. In each section,
forecasters need to collect the information about structures and textures of fibber, yarn, and
fabric, otherwise, the patterns and prints of fabric, silhouette and details source for design
concept, and the sales forecasting for styling testing. The forecasting includes the long-term
and short-term planning: Long-term forecasting’s time horizon is more than two years ahead
of selling season, which covers economic cycles, lifestyle trends, social trends, consumer
preferences, and trends in the arts. On the contrary, Short-term forecasting’s time horizon is
shorter as up to two years ahead the selling season.
2.4.2. Evolution of a trend
There are three stages in evolution of a trend: fringe, trendy, and mainstream. Fringe means
the very beginning of a trend, which is only few consumers and entrepreneurial firms start to
participate in an innovation concept. Moving to the second stage, trendy, the trend grows;
more adopters will associate which the innovators and the new trends will be noticed by the
most fashion-forward brands and retailers. To the last stages of the evolution, trends become
19 | P a g ethe mainstream. More conservative consumers will join in this phase, and brands and
corporations capitalized on the growing demand.
“At any stage, a trend can meet resistance, merge with another trend, or be deflected in a way
that changes the course of the trend.” Malone (2003) takes for example the low-rise jean
which initiate on the West Coast in 2000, “it continued as a trend for several years, and this
trend coincided with the revival of other 1970s style.” In this case, consumers believe the
trendy look, and the trend created a slimming effect at that time.
2.4.3. Trend analysis and synthesis
“Analysis and synthesis are the two faces of forecasting. In analysis, a phenomenon is
dissected to achieve a more complete understanding of its components. Synthesis is a
creative reintegration of the parts.” Evelyn, L.B. (2007)
2.4.4. Fashion Forecasting Process
The process starts with research which includes the source as following: the primary sources,
the secondary sources, tertiary sources, tracking sales, competition, demographics, values
and lifestyles, developing the eye, publications, forecast services, a plethora of influences,
observation posts, the new technology, fashions of involvement, new uses for products, old
neighbourhoods, related industries, networking.
2.5.Key Factors in Trends: Analyzing Methodology
2.5.1. Colour forecasting
Roberta, W & Trudy, S. (1999), “The method visualized the colour of a season as a pyramid.”
The broad base of the pyramid presents the most acceptable colours by public, the colours at
the bottom usually are resistant to change. On the contrary, colours on the top of the pyramid
belong to high fashion, and it represents the fast-changing fashion colours. Before analyzing
the colour trends, it is essential to recognize the current trends, current colours, and then
move on to the image analysis; furthermore, we can gather the information by observing the
current and emerging lifestyle patterns.
20 | P a g e2.5.2. Textile development
Roberta, W & Trudy, S. (1999), “Colour and fabric trends are the first building blocks for a
fashion trend at the twice-year exhibitions.” Researching seasonal trends of textile includes
two parts, the yarn and fabric. There are some important fabric fairs and trade shows listed in
the literature review source; most of them centre on Europe and United States. Piti Filati is
the most famous showcase in July and January in Florence, which features trends with
multimedia presentations will shape fashion for the next three seasons. Première Vision is
the most important and influential show in Europe which is a fabric exhibition hosting more
then 30000 visitors from more than 100 countries held in Paris. The Spring/ Summer
collection will be held in February, and the Fall/ Winter in September, in this exhibition,
visitors can also gather the latest trends information form Japan, Turkey, and South America.
2.5.3. Design concepts and style directions
This section is the most complicated but the most important part to designer in the fashion
design process. Why is it more complicated? The factors to be considered in the design
concepts contain more elements, from the silhouette, fit, specific detail (collar, pocket, lapel,
waistband treatment, sleeve, or cuff), trim, finding, fabric type, to finishing. Each factor need
to be analyze separated, and all the elements would influence the look of the design. The
perennial visual core concepts can be categorized as follows: referencing the Past and ethnic
sources, related to sexuality and semiotics, referencing sports and appropriateness, avant-
garde concepts, and concepts of modernity or postmodern.
2.5.4. Consumer research
Listening to the voice of the consumer is the most important key point in the trends; a
successful forecasting must consider this section deeply. What does the target customer
desire? What is their expectation from the brand? How to establish brand loyalty for a long-
term business?
2.5.5. Retail forecasting
“The sales forecast is a projection of expected demand given a set of environmental
conditions. Quantitative and qualitative methods are used to develop the sales forecast.”
21 | P a g e(Mentzer & Bienstock, 1998). There are three sales forecasting methods mentioned in the
article, which are Time-Series Techniques, Correlation or Regression Techniques, and
Qualitative Techniques. Time-Series Techniques is a common task for predicting the next
twelve months sales, which is based on the past 36 month’s sale performance. Correlation or
Regression Techniques is another common forecasting task to forecast the increasing in sales
with the marketing promotion events. The third method, Qualitative Techniques is used for
analyzing the sales volumes may be influenced by the competitors and the economics
conditions.
2.6.Summary
Fashion forecasting is a wide field to research. However, if the forecaster can master analysis
of the trends and predicting the future in the right way, he or she will be successful in many
areas, as the methodology can be applied in similar way to different specific domains.
This essay introduces the general ideas about fashion forecasting, from the background and
history, to the methodology, and end in the key factors in trends study. In the fashion
industry, fashion forecasting is highly dependent on fashion designer, especially in the mass
market, which is at the bottom of the pyramid of fashion market dynamic. Understanding the
whole process of the forecasting will help the investor to analyze trends for a particular
brand. In the fashion industry in Taiwan, we do need more talents in this field to consolidate
the design concept and develop a better design environment for next design generation in the
future. Therefore, a continuous development and improvement is necessary and essential for
cultivating in this specialized area in the long term.
22 | P a g eChapter 3: Primary research (Interview Survey)
3.1.Introduction
The interview survey is an immediate and helpful tool to assist researchers to obtain the
necessary information from the experienced interviewee. The main purpose of this survey is to
gain the knowledge and experience from the expert in the fashion forecasting field. In addition, a
broader range of related factors, such as personal experience in the fashion industry and the
operation of the studio were also involved in the discussion of the interview. Hence, the results of
interview will not only provide the suggestion for the final design outcome of this project, but also
shoe the potential possibility of building a personal business in the Taiwan fashion business in the
future.
3.2.Interview Survey
3.2.1. Aims and Objectives
The interview is focusing on understanding the fashion forecasting dynamic and the prediction
methodology. LivingStone Studio kept the intimate relationship with U’db on design over ten
years. LivingStone Studio provided the inspiration information to U’db every season at the timing
of the initial design planning. LivingStone Studio is the best example for the writer learning from,
and Ms. Inge Corsden, the chairman of LivingStone Studio, is the best candidate to have interview
with. Fortunately, the author was honoured to have an interview with Ms. Inge in a wonderful
afternoon in London.
3.2.2. Interview SOP Design and Method
Interviewee: Ms. Inge Corsden
Title: LivingStone Studio Chairman
Date: 16 February, 2010
Interviewer: Wen Li TSENG
Interview location:
LivingStone Studio, London
Figure 3.2-1 The author with Ms. Inge in LivingStone Studio, London, UK.
23 | P a g eMake an appointment with the interviewee
Design the questions for the interview
Discuss and review the SOP with tutor
Revise the questions for the interview
Interview with interviewee at Livingstone Studio
Start the interview
Interviewing
Ask for further comments and suggestions
Finish the interview and thank to the interviewee
Time checking
Finish
Figure 3.2-2 Interview SOP.
Interview content:
1. Greetings
2. Introduction and general questions
3. Art and design background
a. Education
b. Work experience
c. How does she enter the fashion business
4. Studio operation
a. Business esprit
b. Main customers
c. Feedback from the clients
d. How do the designers (clients) follow up the design development?
5. Forecasting methodology.
24 | P a g ea. How to do forecasting
b. What is the normal SOP
HOW...
i. To collect the information
ii. To observe the trends
iii. To analyse the information
6. Forecasting business in UK
a. Fashion trends dynamic in London
b. Competitors
7. Forecasting dynamic
a. Taiwan
b. Japan
c. India
8. Collaboration
a. Proposal to Inge
b. U’db or other possible aim brand for 2011S/S
9. Suggestion for me
3.2.3. Analysis of Interview Results
Part One: Basic information about LivingStone Studio and Ms. Inge Corsden [MIC]
According to MIC, LivingStone Studio has no information base, but many young people went there
and they all fell in love with the environment there. MIC is happy to keep the relationship
completely personal not to use any advertisements. LivingStone Studio provides original design
for particular fashion companies in Japan, Taiwan, and India. MIC makes a very positive
contribution to talented art and design students as LivingStone Studio itself is a useful workshop
area with knitwear machines, a mini gallery, which offers a stage for the students to exhibit their
capability.
MIC went to Art College, and then she worked for an international design studio in the UK and
Italy for two and half years and also had a relationship with a Paris studio. After that, she made
25 | P a g ethe contract with Japan. So, MIC worked in Japan for two and half years, and on return to London
started the LivingStone Studio in 1980 with the focus on design development, and helping
companies with building collection. Depending on the companies who came to them at the time,
sometimes they have designer problems, sometimes the product design problems, and
sometimes inter-relationship problems.
Part Two: Design process and methodology
MIC indicates that forecasting is everywhere; just a part of the daily life, in every breath, or you
visit the museums or galleries; or you travel around the world; or view exciting exhibitions. All the
inspiration derived from exhibitions, galleries, science, culture, street style and the shop windows,
and they are all your inner selves. Otherwise, the Premiere Vision in Paris is always the most
important exhibition in fashion industry which assembles sufficient information; the Textile View
is another considerable magazine.
At the beginning of each season, the frames of each collection will be established and all the
designers in the studio will follow the concepts to do design development. Every company has
different needs and design problems, LivingStone Studio aims at their specific requirement and
provides customized service.
Each season, MIC would visit the companies and have face to face discussion on design issues. In
the interactive, LivingStone Studio’s consumer would have the chance to give MIC the feedback
directly. Normally, they will have two weeks time to concentrate on the next season planning and
design development.
3.2.4. Summary
The interview survey tried to understand how the fashion forecasting works in the real industry:
the fashion forecasting provider such as LivingStone Studio. In the conversation with Ms. Inge, it
was clearly described the whole Inge’s experience in the fashion industry in London. Moreover,
Ms. Inge comprehensibly expressed her opinion and suggestion for the writer about gathering
trend information. Fortunately, during the interview, the author had the chance to have a look of
their new collection inspiration boards for U’db in progress.
26 | P a g e3.3. Observation Survey
3.3.1. Introduction
In this chapter, a retail observation was undertaken to gain information about existing fashion
forecasting providing companies, and it is useful for the researcher to discover the situation in the
real industry. What kind of product and service do the competitors provide? What is the price?
What is the market position? There are several research methodology used in this observation
survey, such as market segment, PESTEL analysis and SWOT analysis.
There are numbers of fashion forecasting services, some still use the traditional hand book
publishing as Peclers Paris, Carlin International, and Nelly Rodi; some provide their trends
prediction to particular field as Mudpie Desing for children’s wear, and Concepts Paris for lingerie;
some other company apply their service via website for their membership like WGSN in London,
trendstop in London, and fashion snoops in New York City. Each company has its own approach,
and they all gather fashion intelligence all over the world and sell to their clients in all kinds of
design fields companies globally.
3.3.2. Aims and Objectives
The retail observation research aims to survey the market environment and client needs. The
observation result will support the author in evolving further designs for the Taiwan fashion
market.
3.3.3. Observation Design and Method
Observation Survey
Online Forecasting Trends Trends Magazines
WGSN Perclers View
Fashion Snoop Carlin Collezioni
TrendStop PromoStyle Zoon on fashion trends
First View PromoStyle VOGUE
WEAR
Figure 3.3-1 Observation framework.
27 | P a g e3.3.4. Analysis of Observation and Results
This fashion forecasting product and service will target markets with the high-end creative fashion
brands in Taiwan and China. Generally speaking, the designers in original brands are more
ingenuous; however, the fashion business is always under highly time pressure. Even high
talented designers may need professional team like this kind of fashion forecasting product and
service is as a backing to fulfil their needs in fashion forecasting information.
Figure 3.3-2 Market Segmenting.
The fashion industry was highly raised in the recent decade in Taiwan and especially in China. The
fashion business was spread rapidly on account of the advantage of low wages; nevertheless, the
local brands are facing more and more strong competitors from the whole worlds. Most of global
brands aggressively enter the China market; local designers are forced to work harder in order to
survive in the competitive market.
28 | P a g eIn the large fashion business, it includes womenswear, menswear, haute couture, kidswear,
accessories. This fashion forecasting product and service will focus on womenswear by dint of the
professional team with their rich design experience in the women industry.
PESTEL analysis:
Political
Government Economic
encourages
Innovation Economic
business
Legal Society
Fashion
Intellectual Forecasting Self-identity
Environment Technology
Incubation
Internet
Figure 3.3-3 PESTEL analysis.
PESTEL analysis is useful for understanding the external environment, which is complex and
dynamic. In terms of political, the innovation business is highly encouraged to be established by
Taiwanese Government. Since the needs of the local market fashion forecasting report is
important to local designers in Taiwan and China, this kind of fashion forecasting product and
service will be the pioneer to provide the service and satisfy the demand. As the fashion
forecasting product and service is a start-ups innovation industry in Taiwan and China, it is a great
chance to win the development sponsor with a masterly business plan. In the case of economic,
the whole world is facing the severe economic recession; a fairly large number of companies
faced a sharp drop in business territory and quite a few of them are confronted with closing down
or being bankrupt. It needs more courage and luck to start an innovation business at the moment;
otherwise, it needs a professional team and a careful planning to be success. Obama says crisis
29 | P a g epresents opportunity, a good leader of a company should keep more positive attitude to come up
against the difficulty situation. As far as society is concerned, with the rise of social consciousness,
people today pay more attention to their appearance, spending more time and money to pursue
fashion. Fashion has become everyone’s focus of concern. Such a situation will become the great
opportunity and expectation of the fashion forecasting product and service’s business
development. From the perspective of technology development, with the rapid popularization of
Internet, network developed world, has been shortened the distance of the world. Internet will
effectively become a good platform for the fashion forecasting product and service to interact
with customers, and can greatly reduce the cost of contact with foreign clients. In addition, the
fashion forecasting product and service can also have an effective use of online fashion
forecasting system provided by forecasting companies in Europe. This fashion forecasting product
and service will effectively gather the information and restructure to meet the different
information needs from the consumers. In the future, the fashion forecasting product and service
will also engineer the online service, expecting to enlarge the marketplace as being an internet
fashion forecasting provider. Consideration of environmental element, there is an incubation
organization in Taiwan which is attached to government agencies help people who want to
establish a new business. As the fashion forecasting product and service is a new-born industry, it
will play an important role to assist the company on track as soon as possible. With regards to the
legal aspect, the fashion forecasting product and service providers will have to do in-depth study
for the copyright law to protect the publication rights of the company.
30 | P a g eSWOT analysis:
Internal
Strengths Weaknesses
• Innovation Business • Inexperienced in operating
• Language • Inbuilt reputation
• Experienced in the local market • Limited resources
• Familiar to the local costume • Cost structure
• Understand the local brand needs • Price and volume
• High professional team • Financial resources
• Relationship to local industry • Sales channels
• Products and services • Lower quality of publishing
• Lower cost of publishing
Opportunities Threats
• Undeveloped market • Economical environment
• Few competitors in the market • Cash flow
• Collaboration with experienced • Competitors own rich experiences
western forecasting providers • Populated internet
• Government encourages • Changes in government politics
innovation business
External
Figure 3.3-4 SWOT analysis.
Competitor analysis:
This sort of fashion forecasting product and service’s major competitors exist in the European
market; most of them have rich experience in the field. Unlike these experienced fashion
forecasting companies, this fashion forecasting product and service will offer particular analysis
for the local market, the professional team with many years of working experience in the target
market also have higher understanding of the local cultural then competitors. As well as the
target market's language is the mother tongue of the fashion forecasting product and service
provider, which allows them have more advantages than their competitors.
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