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www.policymagazine.ca May — June 2022
Canadian Politics and Public Policy
From Ukraine
to the Budget:
A Woman of
Influence Chrystia Freeland
$7.95 Volume 10 – Issue 3
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In This Issue
Canadian Politics
Ukraine—Aftermath
and Public Policy of Putin’s Invasion
4 Bob Rae
Putin’s War: Truth and Consequences
Canadian Politics and
Public Policy 7 Jeremy Kinsman
The War, the Reckoning, and its Aftermath
EDITOR AND PUBLISHER
L. Ian MacDonald
lianmacdonald@gmail.com
9 Robin V. Sears
What Could Follow Putin’s Defeat?
ASSOCIATE EDITOR
Lisa Van Dusen
12 Yaroslav Baran
Putin is Waging a War on Humanity: Ukraine Needs the
lvandusen@policymagazine.ca Weapons to Fight Back
CONTRIBUTING WRITERS
Thomas S. Axworthy, 14 Lisa Van Dusen
The China-Russia Tag Team of Turmoil
Andrew Balfour, Yaroslav Baran,
James Baxter, Daniel Béland,
Derek H. Burney, Catherine Cano,
Stéphanie Chouinard, Margaret Clarke, The Budget
Rachel Curran, Paul Deegan,
John Delacourt, Susan Delacourt,
Graham Fraser, Dan Gagnier,
16 Kevin Page
The War Supply Shock Awaiting the 2022 Budget
Helaina Gaspard, Martin Goldfarb,
Sarah Goldfeder, Patrick Gossage, 18 Kevin Lynch and Paul Deegan
Rediscovering Competitiveness: In Search of a ‘Growth Anchor’?
Frank Graves, Jeremy Kinsman,
Shachi Kurl, Philippe Lagassé,
Brad Lavigne, Jeremy Leonard,
25 Perrin Beatty and Mark Agnew
A Down Payment on the Economic Growth Agenda
Kevin Lynch, Leslie MacKinnon,
Peter Mansbridge, Carissima Mathen, 27 Elizabeth May
Budgeting for Climate Disaster
Elizabeth May, Velma McColl,
Elizabeth Moody McIninch,
David McLaughlin, David Mitchell, 29 Don Newman
The Budget’s Guns-and-Butter Blunder
Don Newman, Geoff Norquay,
Fen Osler-Hampson, Kevin Page,
André Pratte, Lee Richardson,
Colin Robertson, Robin V. Sears,
Vianne Timmons, Brian Topp,
The Liberal—NDP Deal
Lori Turnbull, Jaime Watt,
Anthony Wilson-Smith, 30 Thomas S. Axworthy
The Price of Big Dreams: Liberal and NDP Cooperation
Dan Woynillowicz in Minority Governments
WEB DESIGN
Nicolas Landry 33 Lori Turnbull
The Liberal-NDP Deal and the Next Election
policy@nicolaslandry.ca
SOCIAL MEDIA EDITOR
Grace MacDonald
35 John Delacourt and Daniel Komesch
Speed to Delivery: The Liberal-NDP Accord That Shaped a Budget
gmacdonald@policymagazine.ca
GRAPHIC DESIGN AND PRODUCTION
38 Brian Topp
The Liberals, the NDP, and the Art of the Possible in Ottawa
Benoit Deneault
DESIGN CONSULTANT
Monica Thomas
Book Reviews
Policy
Policy is published six times annually 40 Review by Anthony Wilson-Smith
Thomas Mackay: The Laird of Rideau Hall and the Founding of Ottawa.
by LPAC Ltd. The contents are
copyrighted, but may be reproduced By Alastair Sweeny
with permission and attribution in
print, and viewed free of charge at the 42 Review by Peter M. Boehm
Master of the Game: Henry Kissinger and the Art of Middle East Diplomacy
Policy home page at policymagazine.ca.
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By Martin Indyk
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3
From the Editor / L. Ian MacDonald
From Ukraine to the Budget:
A Woman of Influence
W
elcome to our issue on Vlad- in both economics and geopolitics has Europe, and the resulting supply man-
imir Putin’s war on Ukraine, proven so crucial, and so influential. agement crisis, not to mention infla-
as well as Budget 2022 and From the United Nations, Ambassador tion, “Budget 2022 took crucial steps”
the Liberal-NDP peace pact assuring a Bob Rae pulls no diplomatic punches to enhancing investment, innovation
majority on confidence and supply votes and writes that “this has all the mak- and job creation.
for three years until the 2025 election. ings of a turning point, and forces us to Green MP Elizabeth May writes that
From a Canadian perspective, there’s assess the full impact of Putin’s war.” Ottawa is afflicted with “a new form of
one player who brings these three polit- climate denialism. It presents as climate
Jeremy Kinsman, our lead foreign af-
ical events together—Chrystia Freeland, leadership, but denialism it is” in terms
fairs writer, knows Russia from his years
the deputy prime minister and finance of achieving net zero on climate change
serving as our ambassador in the 1990s
minister. Hence, she graces our cover by 2050, when the point of no return
after the end of the Soviet empire. Of
in a remarkable photo by Adam Scotti, in reducing emissions is actually 2030.
the current situation with Putin, he
who captured her pointing to a yellow And columnist Don Newman looks at
writes: “Whatever the outcome, we
button sewn on her blue suit jacket for a the numbers on defence spending and
have entered changed times.”
Ukrainian solidarity signal as she deliv- concludes that Freeland “didn’t put her
ered the budget speech on April 7. Robin Sears looks at the world of realpo- money where her mouth is.”
litik, and wonders how NATO, Europe
Blue and yellow, the national colours As to the Liberal-NDP deal, Tom Axwor-
and Russia will reposition in the event
of Ukraine, and she is a daughter of the thy looks at it as the first written peace
of Putin’s defeat and downfall over his
Ukrainian diaspora of 1.4 million Ca- agreement between a centrist govern-
misbegotten invasion of Ukraine. ment and a leftist third party in a mi-
nadians. And it was very much in her
own words that this writer and journal- In a searching and searing summary of nority House, and compares it with tac-
ist-turned-politician who had served the Russian invasion and crimes, Yaro- it understandings of earlier eras.
as Moscow bureau chief of the Finan- slav Baran asks: “Why do the Ukrainian Lori Turnbull writes that while the Lib-
cial Times and covered Ukrainians in armed forces continue to fight alone erals will benefit from the deal for three
their own language for years, spoke of against Russian waves of inhuman bru- years, they could end up losing the elec-
the February 24 invasion as “a day of tality in a struggle for survival as a peo- tion, especially if Pierre Poilievre wins
infamy”, echoing the famous words of ple?” And Policy Associate Editor Lisa the Conservative leadership, and fills
Franklin Roosevelt after the bombing of Van Dusen writes of the Putin-Xi alli- halls in a general election as he’s doing
Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941. ance of dominance by Russia and Chi- on tour this spring. John Delacourt and
na as the “Tag Team of Turmoil”. Daniel Komesch see it as “a compact
Freeland declared: “Putin and his hench-
O
n Budget 2022, Kevin Page forged in crisis and uncertainty”. And
men are war criminals. The world’s de-
notes that “negative supply Brian Topp thinks that most New Dems
mocracies — including our own — can
shocks” such as COVID and were pleased that “Singh found a way to
be safe only when the Russian tyrant
the Ukraine crisis are more complicat- achieve more progress.”
and his armies are entirely vanquished.”
F
ed for policy makers “than shocks to de- inally, in Book Reviews, Antho-
You can be sure that wasn’t written by mand” such as the 2008 financial crisis. ny Wilson-Smith highly recom-
the bean counters at Finance, but in her
Kevin Lynch and Paul Deegan write mends Thomas Mackay: The Laird
own hand, the sort of moral authority
that as a trading economy Canada of Rideau Hall and the Founding of Otta-
statement normally made by the prime
should be concerned about the com- wa, from writer-historian Alastair Swee-
minister. And in the budget, she deliv-
parative data such as ranking 14th on ny on the designer and developer who
ered on increased defence spending as
the World Economic Forum’s Glob- played a seminal role in building many
well as the numbers for the social pol- landmarks in the nation’s capital.
icy deals negotiated by Justin Trudeau al Competitiveness Index. “Ottawa,”
and Jagmeet Singh in the “Lib-Dipper” they warn, “we have a problem.” And Senator Peter Boehm enjoyed
non-aggression pact. It is the first mo- From the Canadian Chamber of Com- Martin Indyk’s “thoroughly researched”
ment since Freeland left international merce, Perrin Beatty and Mark Agnew Master of the Game: Henry Kissinger and
financial journalism for politics nearly conclude that given two years of suc- the Art of Middle East Diplomacy.
a decade ago in which her grounding cessive COVID waves, war in eastern Enjoy.
Policy January—February 2022
4
UKRAINE—AFTERMATH OF PUTIN’S INVASION
Canadian Ambassador Bob Rae speaking to the UN General Assembly on March 24 on holding Russia to account for its invasion of Ukraine.
— Sophie Galarneau, Canadian Mission to the UN
Putin’s War: Truth and Consequences
As the costs in blood and treasure of Vladimir Putin’s Bob Rae
illegal aggression against Ukraine have mounted and the
V
ladimir Putin’s disastrous de-
systemic motives for that aggression have been clarified, cision to launch what he has
called a “special military oper-
Canada’s Ambassador to the United Nations, Bob Rae,
ation” against Ukraine on the night
has emerged as an eloquent defender of human rights and of February 24, 2022 has generat-
democratic values. In this latest piece for Policy, Rae ex- ed death and mayhem throughout
amines the current crisis and its place in history, geopoli- Ukraine and yet-to-be-fully-under-
stood damage to the world’s econ-
tics and international law. omy. It has also raised basic ques-
tions about the nature of the modern
world and its institutions, including
the United Nations.
Policy
5
We live history in real time, and it is
Putin thought his military operation would be
difficult to assess the complete im-
pact of events as they unfold around special, speedy and quickly done. He was wrong. He
us. But this has all the makings of a is not the first tyrant to make a terrible miscalculation, nor
turning point, and forces us to assess will he be the last. But our resolve must be clear: he cannot
the full impact of Putin’s war. succeed in this exercise of cruelty and criminality.
Together with many allies, Canada’s
response has been clear: Russia’s argu-
ments and justifications for the con-
flict have been dismissed as the dan- Death and destruction have certain- A further assumption of the postwar
gerous nonsense they so clearly are. ly resulted, but not the collapse, and architecture was that the so-called
While Russia invoked both self-de- not the surrender. Ever since Hen- P5 — the permanent, veto-holding
fence and allegations of genocide ri Durant, the Swiss architect of the members of the United Nations Se-
against Ukraine for its treatment of Red Cross, witnessed the slaughter at curity Council — would work togeth-
Russian speakers in that country, these the Battle of Solferino in the middle er to police the world. They would be
excuses were firmly rejected by the In- of the 19th century, activists, and the core of the constabulary, the en-
ternational Court of Justice (ICJ) as then governments, have attempted forcers of the global security system.
U
plausible justification of its invasion. to create a code of conduct for war. kraine is an example of what
Even in the heat of conflict, bellig- happens when a policeman
On April 11th Russian Foreign Min-
erent governments are supposed to turns to crime, an enforc-
ister Sergey Lavrov claimed that Rus-
obey basic rules of humanity and de- er goes rotten, a standard bearer of
sia’s motive in attacking Ukraine was
cency, codified in the Geneva Con- the global system becomes a thug.
to catalyze “an end to the US quest
ventions of 1949. Critics are correct that this is not
for world domination” — an outburst
that takes us back to the propaganda Additions to the body of internation- the first time since 1945 that world
of the Cold War. al humanitarian law (IHL) were set powers have decided to take mat-
P
out as humanity processed its poten- ters into their own hands. The exam-
utin himself made a different
tial for organized evil, including: at ples are legion — the UK and France
case for invasion in a long ar-
the Nuremberg and Tokyo trials after in Suez in 1956, the United States in
ticle published in the summer
the Second World War; in the Char- Vietnam, the USSR in Hungary and
of 2021; one that cited the past, not
ter of the United Nations; in the es- Czechoslovakia, the 2003 invasion
the future, as a rationale. Ukraine and
tablishment of the ICJ; in the Univer- of Iraq by the coalition led by the US
Russia are essentially one people, he
sal Declaration of Human Rights; in and the UK, to name just a few. All
wrote; their common history, cul-
the conventions on torture and geno- were based on the assumption that
ture, and “spiritual space” dates back
cide; and later in the Rome Statute, power and perceived national inter-
thousands of years, and attempts to
which established the International est justified invasion. But there was
fuel a “false narrative” of a separate
Criminal Court (ICC) and codified also the sense that they would under-
Ukrainian nationalism and iden-
crimes against humanity that could take intervention because they could,
tity have always been illegitimate,
be investigated and could lead to formulating a casus belli simply as a
whether supported by Bolsheviks,
charges, trials, and punishment. means to an end.
Nazis, or NATO. “Friendly relations”
are the only path forward, he wrote. The design and structure of this com- All were seen in their time as exis-
That is why both “demilitarization” plex world of accountability is far tential events for both the United
and “denazification” are such essen- from perfect. The main flaw is that Nations and the rule of law, missing
tial features of the Putin dogma and for all their ambition, these are es- the point that the UN was never sup-
ruthless action in the war. Centres of sentially agreements among nation posed to be a world government, that
Ukrainian art, language and culture states that are stronger in aspiration national sovereignty is recognized
are, for Putin, essential targets for than they are in execution. Speaking as a pillar of its charter, and that the
looting and destroying. at Fulton, Missouri, in 1946, Win- hope that somehow the permanent
ston Churchill, in his famous “Iron members would rise above their own
Putin clearly hoped that a massive
Curtain speech”, reminded his lis- self-interest to provide global security
show of strength at the outset would
teners that courts and judges need a was always a pipe dream.
lead to a quick capture of major cit-
ies, including Kyiv, and “shock and good constabulary. A failure to en- But it is important not to join the
awe” would work its magic, killing force the law will lead to abuse and Russians and their crew of allies in
thousands in their path and leading disrespect. That had been the fate of this descent into relativism and
to the collapse and surrender of the the League of Nations, and the same “whataboutism”. Russia has invad-
Zelenskyi government. It would all thing would happen again unless ed Ukraine. The bodies with their
be over in a matter of days. the world corrected the flaw. hands tied behind their backs and
May—June 2022
6
bullets in their heads found in Bu- icy for many decades (you can take Vladimir Putin thought his military
cha are not fake news. The ongoing the boy out of the KGB but you can’t operation would be special, speedy
destruction of Mariupol and many take the KGB out of the boy), and and quickly done. He was wrong.
other cities is not a fiction. They are to explain the links among the five He is not the first tyrant to make a
real, and they are crimes. As the at- points in that strategy. terrible miscalculation, nor will he
tacks proceed and the bombs fall, The critical additional point is that be the last. But our resolve must be
Ukraine continues to resist, with re- none of the measures taken are an clear: he cannot succeed in this ex-
markable military success, and Rus- end in themselves. This is not an ex- ercise of cruelty and criminality.
sia continues its brutal assault by air, ercise in ticking boxes. It is about ef- Nor can he avoid responsibility for
land, and sea. fectiveness in achieving our goals: to what he started and how the troops
Canada has joined others in a five- protect human life; to advance the under his command have commit-
part approach: military assistance to freedom, wellbeing and prosperity of ted such carnage. As Churchill so
Ukraine that will allow for effective Ukraine and other sovereign states; aptly said “when you are walking
defence; financial and humanitari- to maintain global stability; and to through hell, keep going”. That is
an help to Ukraine and internation- enhance the rule of law and the pur- what we must do now.
al agencies to deal with the refugee suit of justice and accountability. If
We also have to deal with the broad-
crisis and the devastating economic the means chosen so far are inade-
er impacts of the invasion on the
and social impact of the Russian in- quate to achieve these goals, then
global economy. The sanctions on
vasion (now at over 11 million peo- other steps must be taken.
Russia, the destruction of ports, in-
ple displaced from their homes); Article 51 of the UN Charter allows frastructure, land, agriculture, the
sanctions against Russia that are countries to defend themselves from refugee displacement, all these have
co-ordinated and targeted on an aggression, and allows others to join meant chaos in local economies and
unprecedented scale; pursuing ac- in that defence. We should nev-
countability at the ICJ, the ICC, and global markets. Sixty countries have
er lose sight of that principle. Nor now been identified as facing debt
other means to hold criminals to ac- should we forget the need for the
count; and providing whatever assis- crises. Food shortages and even fam-
General Assembly to act when the ine are expected in many countries.
tance we can to a negotiating pro- Security Council is frozen or dead-
cess and mediation efforts that have Social and political unrest always
locked. Ceasefires will need policing. follow inflation in food and ener-
been proceeding quietly for several Aggression is a crime. So are forcible
weeks. gy prices. Putin thought his “local
deportation, the disproportionate
W
problem” could be quickly solved.
e have also been engaged use of force, torture, and attempts to
How wrong he is. As another Con-
in a campaign of public destroy a nation and a people. Alle-
servative survivor, Talleyrand, once
diplomacy to call out the gations of war crimes, crimes against
said: “It is worse than immoral. It is
aggression for what it is, to name it humanity, the crime of aggression
a blunder.”
and shame it as much as possible, to and genocide must all be investigat-
counter the lies and propaganda that ed thoroughly and cannot be wished Bob Rae is Canada’s permanent repre-
have been a hallmark of Russian pol- away by the Kremlin. sentative to the United Nations.
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Policy
7
The War, the Reckoning,
and its Aftermath
Jeremy Kinsman, our lead foreign affairs writer, is an old traumas was greeted with euphoria.
But his general project which had no
Russia hand from his years as Canadian Ambassador to precedent in depth, complexity, and
Moscow from 1992-96, after the end of the Cold War, the sheer vastness, overturned virtually ev-
fall of the Soviet Empire and the dissolution of the Soviet ery social premise at the same time as
transforming an economy from top to
Union itself. He knows first-hand what Vladimir Putin has bottom and ending an empire.
been up to with his illegal invasion of Ukraine. “Whatever The concurrent story of NATO’s ex-
the outcome,” he writes, “we have entered changed times.” pansion right up to Russia’s borders is a
murky and controversial narrative about
relatively simple national desires of ap-
“Come writers and critics further encouraged protective national- plicants for Western “normalcy” against
Who prophesize with your pen ism in many democracies. The near-col- sullen victimized reaction from Mos-
...........For the times they are lapse of the financial system in 2009 cow, reinforced by US attachment to
a-changin’....” accelerated depletion of confidence in consolidating its now unipolar pre-em-
Bob Dylan, 1964 both the fairness of the “rules-based” inence. Nonetheless, there was widely
international order the “West” champi- shared bottom line recognition of the
oned, and in our own social model.
Jeremy Kinsman psychological and political reality of the
Twenty years later, as the globe gropes Ukrainian border as a Russian red line.
T
he brutal Russian invasion of for pandemic recovery, “Western” as- The ascent of Vladimir Putin was her-
Ukraine shattered Western sumptions, norms, and systems took alded as recuperative in 2000. But Russia
certainties. another seismic shock, from Putin’s sage Serge Schmemann of the New York
“Times” change every generation or so. brutal war of choice, and now attrition, Times recalls, “forces within Russia” as
Dramatic events that overturn shared against Ukraine (and the West) that well as “western policies” helped turn
assumptions, trash agendas, and even when exhausted seems bound for ne- this “low-ranking KGB officer” into a
overhaul social behaviour seem abrupt. gotiation. Ukraine will have survived, “grievance-driven tyrant obsessed with
But background realities were almost but in the front line in a renewed Cold restoring an empire,” corrupted by the
always eroding for years. War, as long as Putin retains power. “allure of power and obscene wealth.”
It recalls a line from Hemingway’s The Whatever the outcome, we have entered The outcome is throwback one-man rule
Sun Also Rises. “How did you go bank- changed times. War in Europe is no lon- in Russia that aggressively projects inter-
rupt?” Bill asked. “Two ways,” Mike ger unthinkable, and could go global. ventionist state policy to mirror its dicta-
W
said. “gradually, then suddenly.” hile we shall rightly strength- tor’s vengeful grievances and nationalis-
en defences against threats tic world view. The Economist describes
The Berlin Wall’s collapse in 1989 capped
from Russia, a “reckoning” is them as an “obscurantist anti-Western
years of erosion of the Soviet/communist
also beginning over where our thinking mixture of orthodox dogma, national-
empire and belief system. But once freed
went astray. We certainly under-estimat- ism, conspiracy theory and security-state
from the Cold War’s grip, our imagina-
ed Putin’s anger and malign intentions, Stalinism.” And his rule is buttressed by
tions - and self-discipline - didn’t anchor
made explicit (“They cheated us - vehe- his restoration of a one-source propa-
a genuinely one-world perspective.
mently and blatantly”) in his February ganda monopoly swept aside by Gor-
Lazily celebrating that “our side” of the 21 speech alleging the West’s indiffer- bachev’s glasnost 35 years ago.
Cold War had prevailed over the other, ence and deception. Now, as an expanded and reinforced
we assumed the “losers” should imitate
The invasion’s back story lies primarily NATO alliance impressively aligns
and climb aboard our way of life as it rode
in the loose ends of the break-up of the against Russia’s active hostility, back-seat
prosperously into a new millennium.
Soviet Union that had seemed remark- regrets do emerge over lost opportunities
But the 9/11 jihadist attacks sharply ably peaceful, compared to the convul- of the 1990s to support Russia’s transfor-
abraded our carefree ways, leading the sive demise of other empires in the last mative aspirations before Putin’s acces-
US to obsessive border defences, and century. Mikhail Gorbachev’s surpris- sion. But the war’s loud drumbeat, led by
vengeful “forever wars” in Iraq and Af- ing historic endeavour to free Soviet unwavering boosters of Western inter-
ghanistan. Their disruptive migrations society from totalitarian communism’s ests (The Economist), channels comfort
May—June 2022
8
Canadian democracy has resisted the
The notion of Russia now participating in G20
political polarization and nationalist
discussions of international management of populism gaining traction elsewhere.
the world economy, after violating basic world rules by The compromises that make democ-
a gratuitous war against a neighbour whose costs racy work still live here in the wide
will be a trillion dollars, is absurd. arc formed by median voters (though
some copycat right-wing commentary
proposes Saskatchewan populism as a
in the “West’s new-found unity,” confi- tuitous war against a neighbour whose better way!)
dent “that the American-led liberal order costs will be a trillion dollars, is absurd. Canada’s DNA is, if not “globalist,”
can prevail.” Unity of purpose is actually Russia will emerge severely weakened. distinctly internationalist, arguably
increasingly embedded in a wider ambit Despite old-style declarations by US na- “post-nationalist”. Canada identifies
than NATO, including Japan, South Ko- tional security advisor Jake Sullivan that with an international rules-based or-
rea, and Australia, where outrage against it suits US purposes (including political) der that works for all. The current one,
Russia also runs strong. to see Russia so diminished, echoed on still hobbled by ossified UN privileg-
Some, like Anne-Marie Slaughter, cau- NATO’s Eastern flank, thought needs to es for claimant victors of WW2, does
tion against the reflexive rush to meet be given to ways to encourage post-con- not, when we need it most. Solutions
the Russian threat just by reinforcing flict rehabilitation - of Russia, but more apt to win universal support are elu-
old-fashioned heavy military count- importantly, of confidence in the inter- sive, calling for coalitions of middle
er-force as a kind of Cold War muscle national rules-based order, increasing- and smaller powers to drive their con-
memory, warning that “all the pro- ly undermined by a corrosive culture of struction and radiate marketing.
nouncements about the re-invigoration disinformation facilitated by commu-
Canadians and Germans are engaged
of NATO and the return of the “free nications platforms.
in a bilateral like-minded effort (“Re-
world” versus autocracies focus us once Thus, the “times” again change. Gide- newing our Democratic Alliance”) to
again on great power politics as the cur- on Rachman of the Financial Times build a solidarity network among will-
rency of international relations.” writes that “patriots versus globalists” ing North and South governments and
Many in the world’s wider “silent ma- is the new “battlefield.” civil society, aimed at effective inclusive
W
jority” see the Ukraine war as sort of here should Canada be multilateralism that selectively pools
a cyclical NATO vs. Russia thing that focused? sovereignty, defends human rights,
doesn’t directly concern them. They and pursues initiatives on such as cor-
have been factoring in the decline of Obviously, as a core mem-
ruption and refugees. It is timely now
US gobal influence, especially relative ber of NATO and as a mentor and bene-
to nurture a more constructive global
to the pervasive economic reach of Chi- factor of Ukraine since 1990, we must
mindset that looks beyond preoccupa-
na which hopes to emerge from the contribute as best we can to Ukraine’s
tions with Putin, or the China-US rival-
Ukraine debacle unscathed, with its po- defence, and to its reconstruction and
ry for “number one” bragging rights.
sition as emerging global decider en- democratic development.
hanced. Most don’t wish to have to wear While we pay acute attention to the US,
Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Free-
the team colours of one or the other land has shown for decades unusual- commit to NATO and to Ukrainian de-
(and certainly not Putin’s), but they are ly significant personal commitment to fence and reconstruction, and partner
nervous. While still hoping the US can Ukraine’s national democratic develop- the EU, Canada should also re-connect
marshall deterrence, they’re also ramp- ment. Sometimes lampooned unfairly our marginalized foreign service and in-
ing up national military preparedness. as being anti-Russian in consequence, ward-looking government to the much
Freeland actually knew both countries wider world in Asia, Africa, and our
It is hard to envisage any kind of “nor-
objectively and well. Because potential own hemisphere, the “silent majority”
mal” relationships soon between any G7
contagion to Russia of the increasing- of countries recent governments frank-
country and Russia as long as Putin is in
ly successful example of the reformist ly dropped, including many who re-
power (though calls to cut all Canada’s
movement in Ukraine is a threat Putin member Canadians as among their early
contacts with Russia are juvenile - the
must profoundly fear, Freeland’s advice friends. They need to hear that a rules-
Arctic Council, for example, is vital). In-
and influence count in Kiev and inter- based world is the best friend of all.
creasingly severe sanctions on Russia for
the invasion have been cemented by the nationally, including Washington. Contributing Writer Jeremy Kinsman
evidence of a mass crime scene whose Our influence in Washington will al- served as Canadian Ambassador to Mos-
repercussions will last for a generation. ways be a precious Canadian foreign cow from 1992-96, as well as Ambassa-
The notion of Russia now participat- policy currency in defence of bilater- dor to Rome, High Commissioner to Lon-
ing in G20 discussions of international al interests, especially given the un- don and Ambassador to the EU. He is
management of the world economy, af- predictable American trajectory in an currently a Distinguished Fellow of the
ter violating basic world rules by a gra- increasingly polarized landscape. Canadian International Council.
Policy9
Vladimir Putin, alone at the top of the Kremlin. Robin Sears writes that his defeat seems incireasingly likely “so long as the West does not flinch in
maintaining its supply of advanced weapons to Ukraine.”
What Could Follow Putin’s Defeat?
Geopolitical, security and territorial calculations aside, democratic reform back toward a
Cold War, expansionist mentality.
Vladimir Putin’s unjustified and illegal invasion of Ukraine In his writing, he sketched the chal-
was, above all, a gamble; the kind of adventurism undertaken lenges faced by neighbours and the
world when the most imperious of
by a mind too long unfettered by absolute power and too Russia’s czars were on the rampage.
certain of its choice architecture. If, as seems likely, Putin is Kennan died in 2005, but it would
defeated, what comes next? Veteran international political have been fascinating to hear his
views on how to manage the cur-
player and strategist Robin Sears games out the possibilities. rent, crazed czar.
Author of the famous “Long Telegram”
to the State Department from his post
Robin V. Sears tion of counterforce at a series of
as deputy chief of mission in Moscow
constantly shifting geographical and
O
and the subsequent “X Article” pub-
ne of the 20th century’s political points.”
lished anonymously in Foreign Affairs
wisest observers on Russia,
Kennan, whose legacy includes the that outlined his containment strat-
George Kennan, concluded
occasion eccentricity, was opposed egy, Kennan had lived and travelled
that the deeply paranoid, mid-cen- to the creation of NATO, and called widely in Russia. He admired and re-
tury Soviet regime could not be pre- its expansion in 1998 a “strategic spected the Russian people, but was ap-
vented from invading its neigh- blunder of potentially epic propor- palled at the viciousness and brutality
bours, it could only “be contained tions,” because he thought it would to which their governors had subjected
by the adroit and vigilant applica- re-orient a Russia then undergoing them for centuries.
May—June 202210
By the volatile early days of the Cold Putin must be Putin must be defeated. He cannot be
War, he was ambassador in Moscow, trusted to honour any ceasefire, pledge
trying to transition from wartime allies
defeated. He cannot to withdraw or agreement to stop mur-
to managing an increasingly threaten- be trusted to honour any dering thousands of civilians. As Cana-
ing enemy. In a magnificent two-vol- ceasefire, pledge to withdraw da’s UN ambassador, Bob Rae, put it ic-
ume memoir for which he won the Pu- or agreement to stop ily, “How do you know when Putin is
litzer Prize, he returns again and again lying? His lips are moving.”
to the mystery of the violence and cru-
murdering thousands of
So, however many more bloody weeks
elty of Russian leaders, and their con- civilians. As Canada’s UN
or months it may take, Ukraine will
stant harassment of their neighbours. ambassador, Bob Rae, put it not permit any Russian troops on its
Kennan cites a conversation with a Rus- icily, ‘How do you know soil, nor cede an inch of its territo-
sian official whose identity he does not when Putin is lying? His lips ry. President Zelenskyi and compa-
reveal (‘Memoirs’, Vol. 1, Ch. 8) “Here,” are moving.’ ny have been brilliant in taking their
the official said, “we have to have a dic- case to the people of nearly every ad-
tatorship. Left to themselves, our peo- vanced democracy. Addressing entire
ple would know no measure. They have nations through televised speeches to
no restraints.” Kennan replies he will and to support “those in the neigh- their national parliaments, they have
not judge their domestic system, but bourhood who share our values.” He firmed the spines of national lead-
warns his friend that if they continue to was widely reprimanded across the ers. Ukraine’s incredible determina-
be obsessed with espionage, meddling West for this thinly veiled denunci- tion and courage has meant they are
in other countries affairs, and sending ation of Putin. As he was leaving five increasingly being seen as heroes de-
generation after generation of “embit- years later, he commented soberly that fending common values in the minds
tered and insulted diplomats” around those who did not see the parallels be- of voters in democracies around the
the world, they would have to live with tween the early decades of the 20th world. It would be very unwise of any
the consequences. century and the rising dangers today, leader to advocate an early deal with
were simply not paying attention. Putin as more than a temporary relief
As Kennan gets up leave, the offi-
for humanitarian reasons.
cial says, “We are being very success- In a tweet at the end of March this year,
ful these days. The more successful Tusk whacked Germany for its wobbles Putin’s defeat seems increasingly like-
we are, the less we care about for- on military support for Ukraine. He ly so long as the West does not flinch
eign opinion. This is something you said, “ …shouldn’t the memory of the in maintaining its supply of advanced
should bear in mind about the Rus- Nazi genocide make you take the lead weapons to Ukraine. The role of re-
sian. The better things go for him, the in helping Ukraine? This is your po- al-time battlefield intelligence provid-
more arrogant he is. That applies to litical and moral obligation.” He then ed by NATO, though not disclosed or
all of us, in the government and out. rounded on the EU itself saying: “Pu- admitted publicly, is an unspoken tac-
It is only when we are having hard tin is preparing a decisive offensive. Eu- tical advantage.
sledding that we are meek and mild rope must support Ukraine with all the Putin’s arrogance — and his lack of
and conciliatory. When we are suc- means at its disposal. NOW! Otherwise any combat or military planning ex-
cessful, keep out of our way.” Re-read- another town may become Bucha.” perience — led him to dismiss the
ing it more than seven decades after conventional rule that a successful
It is already a cliché to acknowledge
the fact, one could almost imagine land invasion requires at least three
that the world changed at 4:00 am lo-
Putin delivering these threatening re- times the numbers of defenders. His
cal time on February 24. Some would
marks to a foreign leader in a private invaders were smaller in number than
argue it has changed more funda-
meeting. Clearly, Putin believed, un- mentally than on the chill November the combined defence forces, Defence
til a few weeks ago, in his own success night in 1989 when the Berlin Wall of a homeland is also a force multipli-
and what he had achieved in Russia fell. Russia has revealed once again its er, especially against a poorly motivat-
over his two decades of dictatorship. willingness to use force to achieve its ed invasion force significantly made
A
n equally wise 21st century Rus- aims. It must, once again, be taught a up of conscripts with less than a year’s
sia watcher, former Polish prime lesson about how unacceptable that training.
minister and European Council is to the international community. Perhaps the gravest challenge Putin
president Donald Tusk, admonished The continuing hand-wringing about now faces is that the West is invested
those in recent years who did not see “provoking Putin,” on the part of a stun- in his defeat, even removal. A painful
the strategic threat posed by Putin. ning list of international policy gurus — anniversary will pass without even
Tusk assumed his EU office just after including, bizarrely, Henry Kissinger — major gains let alone triumph for Pu-
Putin’s first invasion of Ukraine. who are today’s appeasement advocates tin. May 9 is the annual celebration
In a stern inaugural address he called is embarrassing to behold. But the West of Russia’s victory in what they know
on the EU to “stand up to its enemies”, appears to have come to realize that as the Great Patriotic War. The Sec-
Policy11
ond World War took more than 20 We need to erase some of the policy red lines that
million Russian lives, by far the great-
est number of any nation, and left a
have framed NATO and EU thinking since 1991.
wound that Russians carry even now. Taking care not to provoke Putin or treating Russia as
Those watching the parade of mili- a reliable treaty partner so long as he is in power is no
tary power past the Kremlin might longer possible, probably for several years.
well be reflecting on how many more
dead Putin’s war will add.
S
o, what is to be done to secure,
once more, a peace in Europe? we have for too many years. Raising networks are closed to them. The
our defence spending from 1.4 per- stunningly foolish decision to allow
First, we need to start with a
cent to 1.5 percent, over five years, as Gazprom and other Russian state en-
clean sheet of paper about security
the April budget did, would be laugh- terprises to own key pieces of Euro-
needs and the policies and structures
able if it were not such a sad reflec- pean energy infrastructure — from
to meet them. The NATO vs. non-NA-
tion of how much the Liberals do not ports, to pipelines to storage facilities
TO divide cannot hold any longer.
get that it’s way past time to end our — needs to end quickly, through na-
Nations such as Finland, Austria, and
“free-rider” reputation in NATO. tionalization or by an EU-wide insti-
Moldova are understandably reflect-
Next, we have to lay out a roadmap tution taking them over.
ing on how to best defend themselves
W
against a Russia with a renewed appe- for Russia to be able to work its way hen those steps have been
tite for a neighbour’s territory. back from global pariah status. The completed, if Putin has
opening phases must emphasize that survived, we may be ready
Second, we need to erase some of the
Russia will need to pay a high price to sit down with him to discuss eas-
policy red lines that have framed NATO
for its treachery and bloodshed. Rus- ing sanctions in return for broad nu-
and EU thinking since 1991. Taking
sia’s frozen assets should all be seized clear weapons and global security un-
care not to provoke Putin or treating
and placed in trust for the rebuilding derstandings. He will know that the
Russia as a reliable treaty partner so long
of Ukraine, under the supervision of West is capable of further tightening
as he is in power is no longer possible,
an independent agency created for its chokehold on his economy if he
probably for several years.
the purpose. behaves truculently or treacherously.
The EU may move at a snail’s pace on If Putin has been removed, we should
The Russian people should be provided
membership decisions, but announc- seek some proofs of integrity and reli-
with the truth about Putin’s war, and
ing a start with a first round of talks, in ability from his successors. If, in their
its cost to Russia on every front. If he
Kyiv, as soon as is possible is entirely battered state following defeat, they
will not grant greater freedom for lo-
doable. Europe could also explore short- appear willing to bargain for a return
cal and international media to operate
term economic and political supports to the international community, we
in Russia, which seems highly unlikely,
for Ukraine, such as shared humanitar- should never forget George Kennan’s
then we should use more covert digital
ian, educational, and economic devel- wise counsel.
means. For too long, the West has giv-
opment programs. It could also extend
en Putin a free pass for cybercrime and “Russia can only be contained, not
observer status to key institutions and
disinformation campaigns. We have permanently defeated,” He wrote. It
invitations to major EU events. Each
the capability to deliver a narrative will always default to, as it has done
step designed to quickly and firmly con-
grounded in reality to every Russian for more than five centuries now, the
vey to Russia that Ukraine is part of Eu-
citizen if we choose to use the technol- use of force, or the threat of it, against
rope and is on a path to full member-
ogies we have to do so. We did it effec- its neighbours as the core of its secu-
ship in the EU.
tively for the duration of the Cold War, rity policy. Ronald Reagan’s famous
To hold the peace, when it is and it contributed to the collapse of aphorism, “trust but verify,” will be
achieved, will probably require for the Soviet Union. Our technical means a more solid foundation for deal-
some years, permanently stationed are far greater today. ing with Russia than ever. But Russia
NATO and other allied forces at key Clear evidence of a commitment to will never be an entirely reliable part-
points along Russia’s entire western moving quickly to implement an EU ner. As Kennan’s Russian official con-
perimeter. Tempting Putin to take and NATO-wide replacement of Rus- fessed, “The more successful we are,
Moldova, from his base in Transn- sian fossil fuels with alternative en- the less we care about foreign opin-
istria, for example, by not granting ergy sources, hopefully increasingly ion…keep out of our way.”
Moldova visible protection, merely green, is the most effective sanction Contributing writer Robin V. Sears, who
exposes Romania to greater risk. of all. Even if Russia merely shifts has lived and worked as a political staff-
N
ations such as Canada will some of its oil and coal trade to In- er and policy advisor in Europe and south-
need to contribute more to dia and China, they have no way to east Asia, is an independent consultant on
this peacekeeping force than export gas if the European pipeline crisis communications based in Ottawa.
May—June 202212
Putin is Waging a War on Humanity:
Ukraine Needs the Weapons to Fight Back
As Volodymyr Zelenskyi has repeatedly said, Vladimir Pu-
W
here, then, is the internation-
al community? Why, then,
tin’s war against Ukraine isn’t just about Ukraine. Russia do the Ukrainian armed forc-
is seeking an asymmetrical outcome that will weaken the es continue to fight alone against Rus-
West and compromise the democracy-led world order. That sian waves of inhuman brutality in a
struggle for survival as a people? West-
makes military assistance from NATO members, including ern governments have excelled at pub-
Canada, asymmetrically crucial. Policy Ukraine specialist, lic statements. There has been no short-
former Ukrainian Canadian Congress President and Earn- age of official communiqués declaring
in no uncertain terms how “unaccept-
scliffe Principal Yaroslav Baran lays out the stakes. able” Russia’s actions are. Rhetoric
abounds praising Ukrainian President
Volodymyr Zelenskyi for his leader-
Yaroslav Baran intelligence estimates 20,000 civilians
ship and resilience. “Shoulder to shoul-
killed in occupied Mariupol alone.
A
der”-type comments emerge from every
s the full horror of the Second
Human rights groups are gathering evi- NATO or European Union leader’s press
World War came into public
dence of war crimes for investigations al- conference, as do pledges for more sanc-
focus, two phrases were repeat-
ready underway from victims, witness- tions against Russia and for more assis-
ed again and again: “How could this
es and citizen video gathered: rape and tance to Ukraine.
have happened?” and “Never again.”
torture chambers in formerly occupied
The United Nations was formed to Yet, as President Zelenskyi pleads: “don’t
suburbs of Kyiv; summary execution
make sure it never does. Yet it did send words, prayers or pledges; send
of hooded and bound Ukrainian civil-
happen. tanks, send jets, send anti-tank systems”.
ians in Bucha; the indiscriminate shoot-
The Rwandan genocide against the ing of civilians in Hostomel for merely
Tutsi people in 1994, and the Serb/ speaking Ukrainian; systematic razing
Yugoslav genocide against Albanian of civilian housing and infrastructure
Kosovars in 1999 gave these phras- in Irpin and Kharkiv; the forced depor-
es new currency. Here, international tation of thousands from Mariupol (as
law and multilateral structures again many as 670,000 country-wide); forced
failed. But these genocides led to the relocation and adoption of thousands
emergence of a new principle – ad- of Ukrainian children to Russian fami-
opted by the World Summit in 2005, lies deep in Russian territory; and — in
and a year later by the UN: the “Re- the grotesque lagging indicator of all
sponsibility to Protect.” Under this genocides — mass graves everywhere A Ukrainian stamp sketched from an image
principle, the international commu- Russian forces have retreated; and mo- of a soldier giving the finger to the Russian
warship the Moskva, sunk in the Black Sea,
nity is declared to have a duty to step bile crematoria – modern day “ovens” went viral. --artist, Boris Groh
in and stop four separate categories of evoking the worst images of the Sec-
atrocity crimes: genocide, war crimes, ond World War – deployed in occupied Canada’s response at this writing has
crimes against humanity, and ethnic zones to eliminate the evidence. included $90 million in anti-tank guns,
cleansing. sniper rifles, night-vision goggles, ar-
The now-infamous What Russia Needs
Today, as Russia’s unprovoked and to Do about Ukraine essay – state-sanc- moured vests and other military equip-
unjustified war against Ukraine con- tioned and published April 7th by ment.That is in addition to a $500
tinues in violent force, it is increas- pseudo-intellectual Tomofei Sergeitsev million loan guarantee and $145 in hu-
ingly irrefutable that all four variet- in Russian propaganda outlet RIA No- manitarian assistance. But it took the
ies of atrocity are being perpetrated vosti – reads like a modern-day Mein brutal shelling of non-military targets
by Russian armed forces and govern- Kampf: a xenophobic need to cleanse for our government to relent and flip
ment against the Ukrainian people. As Ukraine of Ukrainian-ness, a call for the switch to defensive weaponry. De-
of April 18th, the United Nations re- the destruction of Ukrainian language, fence Minister Anita Anand says Can-
ports 4,890 civilian casualties in the culture and identity, the futility of ada’s stores are now bare and we have
country: 2,072 killed and 2,818 in- even “re-educating” its political and nothing left to give. In principle this is
jured, with the real numbers believed cultural leaders and calls for their elim- commendable; in reality, there was lit-
to be considerably higher – Ukrainian ination. Mens rea and actus reus. tle in the cupboard. Two former chiefs
Policy13
of defence staff disagree, and note we
have far more hard kit to give, and can
go out and buy more. Conversations
have focused on light armoured vehi-
cles and naval harpoons – both in Ca-
nadian possession. Moreover, an addi-
tional $500 million in both lethal and
non-lethal military aid pledged in Fi-
nance Minister Chrystia Freeland’s
current federal budget is just that – a
pledge. It’s not materiel arriving now.
Other countries are also supporting with
war materiel, with countries like Estonia A woman waves the Ukrainian flag, whose blue and yellow colours have become among the world’s
(the size of Ottawa-Gatineau) having sent most familiar and beloved national symbols since the Russian invasion. --Serhii Ivashchuk--iStock
more military aid than Canada. Slovakia
has sent missile batteries. The UK and Since the start of the war, we’ve given and NATO are at war – without a single
the US have sent many shoulder-fired air him €35 billion, compared to the €1 bil- American fighter jet in the arena.
defence and anti-tank systems like the lion we’ve given Ukraine to arm itself.” The countries in the Eastern flank of
S
Skystreak, Stinger, MANPAD and Javelin, o, while the West does offer funds NATO are the ones who seem to under-
and these have proven very effective at to help Ukraine, Europe is also stand: Slovakia has decided to send MiGs
slowing the Russian advance. The Amer- concurrently subsidizing Russia’s anyway, as the Czechs are sending tanks.
icans have also sent drones. But Ukraine war machine many times over in com- These same countries, plus Poland, Lat-
has a very clear wish list, and jets, tanks, parative dollar value through contin- via, Lithuania and Estonia, have broken
helicopters, and more anti-tank systems ued fossil fuel imports. Where resolve is with the NATO consensus and called for
top the list. To quote President Zelen- concerned, Germany remains the soft a no-fly zone over Ukraine.
skyi: “I hope the sky will be shut down. underbelly of EU energy dependence;
But if you don’t have strength and cour- So while the old members of the alliance
meanwhile, Emmanuel Macron’s elec- increasingly resemble a politicized de-
age to do that, then give me the planes.” tion runoff against pro-Kremlin Ma- bating club, it’s the former Warsaw Pact
But NATO ended up saying no to both rine LePen led to increasingly relativ- countries that embody the true spirit of
options. A no-fly-zone was seen as too istic language from France’s president. NATO – steadfast resolve against Russian
provocative of Russia. The US then said Hopefully, with the election behind imperialism and a full willingness to stare
it doesn’t make sense to send jets that him, Macron will drop the ambivalent it down, no matter what it takes. They
Ukrainian pilots aren’t familiar with. rhetorical posturing. get it. They have suffered directly under
But then a Polish proposal for Poland Some military and foreign policy ana- Russia’s yoke, and understand how high
to give Ukraine its Soviet-era MiGs – lysts argue that sending jets – or impos- the stakes are. They also know Putin is
identical to those in the Ukrainian air- ing a no-fly zone – would be a step too a liar, propagandist and a fraud. He will
force – was also scuppered by the Amer- far, a “red line” for the Kremlin that say what he wants and fabricate what he
icans. The mismatch, then, between risks nuclear retaliation. The problem needs, regardless of facts – so they might
the West’s “all-in” rhetoric and “not-so- with this conclusion is that it misun- as well follow their conscience.
all-in” weaponry assistance is not only derstands the Kremlin’s war and in- With crimes against humanity unfold-
costing lives; it may be the crucial vari- formation ethos. Vladimir Putin does ing before our eyes – and a campaign
able that determines the outcome of the not need a pretext to do anything he underway to exterminate an entire peo-
war. Zelenskyi and Ukraine have already chooses to do. He will invent pretexts ple – let’s hope the entirety of NATO
proven they are capable of holding the – and does so routinely – to justify his and the European Union find their con-
Russians back, but their supplies are actions. Indeed, the entire Ukraine war science as well. The international com-
more finite than those of their invader. is based on a fabrication. munity has a Responsibility to Protect –
An additional disconnect between rhet- A useful bellwether of Kremlin propagan- and that means getting involved. Never
oric and reality was captured succinctly da is Margarita Simonyan, propagandist again should mean never again.
by High Representative of the European and editor-in-chief of state-controlled Contributing Writer Yaroslav Baran is Na-
Union for Foreign Affairs and Security RT and Rossiya Segodnya. Following the tional Strategic Communications Practice
Policy, Josep Borrell Fontelles, in an April embarrassing sinking of Russia’s Black Lead with Earnscliffe Strategies. He has led
6th address to the European Parliament: Sea Fleet flagship, the Moskva, her public numerous democratic and capacity-build-
“We’ve given Ukraine nearly €1 billion. line changed from one of Russia fighting ing projects in Ukraine. He is also past pres-
That might seem like a lot but €1 bil- Ukraine to Russia being at war with all ident of the Ukrainian Canadian Congress
lion is what we’re paying Putin every of NATO and all its resources. Her news in Ottawa and serves on the executive of
day for the energy he provides us with. organizations are already saying Russia the Canada-Ukraine Foundation.
May—June 2022Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping made their anti-democracy, global domination collaboration clear at the Beijing
Olympics on February 4th, writes Lisa Van Dusen. --VOA image.
The China-Russia Tag Team of Turmoil
The pattern of democracy degradation that has increasing- counterpart is more akin to that of a
McDonald’s CEO and a diffident lo-
ly imperiled human rights and freedoms across the globe cal franchise manager, or, to adjust
over two decades has been enabled by new technology, the metaphor for sanctions, a Te-
by intelligence corruption and by the mainstreaming of remok CEO and a diffident local fran-
chise manager.
propaganda. It has also been lubricated by China’s policy
On that day, the two Wannabe
of changing national outcomes in country after country World Order players issued a shot
through coercive investment. Vladimir Putin’s invasion of across the bow of the liberal, democ-
racy-led global power status quo that
Ukraine merely clarifies Russia’s role in the aspiring new left no doubt as to where Beijing
world order division of labour. stood on the question of what Putin
would do next, or, to clarify for con-
text, what the 100,000 Russian troops
Lisa Van Dusen 4th, you might have been forgiven then amassed on Ukraine’s borders
for processing the symbolism of that would do next, or, more precisely,
W
hen Xi Jinping and Vlad- photo-op as that of equal partners what those troops would do once the
imir Putin declared their conflating their dystopian brands for Olympics that were about to get un-
mutual admiration in a bi- exponential impact. derway wrapped on February 20th.
lateral rendezvous hours before the In fact, the relationship between the “Some forces representing a mi-
Beijing Olympics opened February Chinese president and his Russian nority on the world stage continue
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