HOT PROPERTY SECTOR UPDATE - Sunteck Realty

Page created by Lester Gonzales
 
CONTINUE READING
India Equity Research            Real Estate       January 11, 2021

HOT PROPERTY
SECTOR UPDATE

                                                               Rising like a phoenix
                                                               CY20 was a roller coaster year for India’s property space--while
                                                               demand collapsed in Q2CY20 due to the pandemic, the sector ended
                                                               Q4CY20 on a high note with a sharp 72% QoQ recovery in housing sales
                                                               and 52% QoQ improvement in office leasing. Industry consolidation
                                                               continued, aided by funding constraints for tier 2/3 developers.
                                                               In our view, the buoyancy will sustain in the near term, leading to
                                                               continued strength in realty stocks. Hence, we revise up our sales
                                                               assumptions and reduce NAV discount/WACC for our coverage stocks.
                                                               Our top picks are DLF and Brigade Enterprises (both ‘BUY’); we
                                                               downgrade Godrej Properties to ‘HOLD’ due to rich valuations.

                                                               Housing space in CY20: Making sense of an unreal year
                                                               The pandemic singed the housing space in Q2CY20 with across-the-board demand
                                                               destruction. However, a combination of rising affordability (due to decade low
                                                               mortgage rates, stamp duty cut, price rationalisation by developers) and covid-19-
                                                               induced factors (demand for bigger units/luxury homes) led to absorption reviving
                                                               sharply in Q4CY20 (up 72% QoQ); MMR, in fact, clocked highest-ever property
                                                               registrations in December 2020. Changing consumer preferences and funding
                                                               constraints for tier 2/3 developers (loan sanctions down 35% YoY in 9mCY20) meant
                                                               that market share of listed developers surged to the highest since FY15.

                                                               Annuity space: Some recovery, but still some distance to cover
                                                               Office space leasing too was hit hard by covid-19; while demand showed signs of
                                                               recovery (up 52% QoQ in Q4CY20), it was still down 44% YoY compared to the CY19
                                                               peak. The looming shadow of ‘work from home’ means that a return to the halcyon
                                                               days of CY19 is sometime way. We believe a full-fledged demand recovery will have
                                                               to wait till CY22. Consumption in malls has been picking up and we believe the trend
                                                               will gather traction going ahead; this space is ripe for consolidation due to funding
                                                               constraints of weaker players.

                                                               Outlook: Hope beckons
                                                               As argued in our comprehensive sector report, Real Estate - The Charge of the
                                                               Consolidating Brigade, consolidation is the driving feature of India’s property
                                                               space and covid-19 has only accelerated the process. We believe housing demand
                                                               will remain robust in the near term, aided by improving affordability. Office space
                                                               absorption will recover fully only in CY22 with full-fledged return of employees to
                                                               offices still some time away. Funding crunch for tier 2/3 developers means that
                                                               market share gains for organised developers will continue. This, along with benign
                                                               interest rates, means that realty stocks will continue to perform well. We believe
                                                               the potential for re-rating is higher among developers with strong rental portfolios
                                                               and hence prefer DLF (BUY) and Brigade Enterprises (BUY). We downgrade Godrej
                                                               Properties to ‘HOLD’ from ‘BUY’ due to rich valuations.

Parvez Qazi                    Akash Damani
+91 (22) 4063 5405             +91 (22) 4063 5456
Parvez.Qazi@edelweissfin.com   Akash.Damani@edelweissfin.com

Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset              Edelweiss Securities Limited
HOT PROPERTY

                                                         Contents
                                                         Housing space: Blockbuster end to the year… ……………………………………......................3

                                                         Why such a sharp revival in housing demand?……………………………..……………………….5

                                                         Covid-19 forces a change in consumer behaviour….………………………….…………………..8

                                                         ….and further strengthens the trend of industry consolidation ……………..……………..10

                                                         Office space: Leasing picks up in Q4CY20….………………………………………………………….11

                                                         Retail space: Recovering fast after a hard knock …………………………………………………...14

                                                         Funding scenario too aiding consolidation ……………………………………………………………16

                                                         Benign interest rates’ helping valuations ………………………………………………………………18

                                                         Outlook: A lot to look forward to in CY21……………………………………………………………….19

2    Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset   Edelweiss Securities Limited
HOT PROPERTY

                                                                                                             Housing space: Blockbuster end to an year…
                                                                                                             The housing space witnessed both ‘famine’ and ‘feast’ in CY20. The pandemic led to
                                                                                                             demand and supply crashing in Q2CY20. Activity slowly picked up in Q3CY20 and the
                                                                                                             segment eventually ended the year on a bright note with the festive season
                                                                                                             witnessing good pick-up in absorption across the board.

                                                                                                             Demand: As per Anarock, housing sales in Q4CY20 rose 72% QoQ to 50,900 units
                                                                                                             compared with 29,520 units in the previous quarter. YoY, demand was down mere
                                                                                                             ~14% YoY.

                     Demand and supply rocketed in Q4CY20

                  90,000

                  72,000

                  54,000
        (Units)

                  36,000

                  18,000

                      0
                            Q1CY18                 Q2CY18                Q3CY18                Q4CY18                  Q1CY19                Q2CY19                  Q3CY19                Q4CY19                 Q1CY20               Q2CY20                   Q3CY20               Q4CY20

                                                                                                                                 Supply                    Demand

    Source: Anarock, Edelweiss Research

                                                                                                             With a share of 53% in sales, MMR and Pune spearheaded housing demand during
                                                                                                             the quarter. This was largely due to Maharashtra government’s decision in August
                                                                                                             2020 to cut stamp duty rates.

                     Property registration volumes surged in Maharashtra

                  300,000

                  240,000

                  180,000
       (Units)

                  120,000

                   60,000

                       0
                                                                                                    Jun-17
                                     Apr-16
                                              Jun-16

                                                                                           Apr-17

                                                                                                                                                  Apr-18
                                                                                                                                                            Jun-18

                                                                                                                                                                                                         Apr-19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Jun-19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Apr-20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Jun-20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Dec-19
                            Feb-16

                                                       Aug-16

                                                                         Dec-16
                                                                                  Feb-17

                                                                                                              Aug-17

                                                                                                                                Dec-17
                                                                                                                                         Feb-18

                                                                                                                                                                     Aug-18

                                                                                                                                                                                       Dec-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                Feb-19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Aug-19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Feb-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Aug-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Dec-20
                                                                Oct-16

                                                                                                                       Oct-17

                                                                                                                                                                              Oct-18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Oct-19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Oct-20

                                                                                                                                Number of registrations

    Source: Government documents, Edelweiss Research

                                                                                                             Mumbai property registrations, in fact, went through the roof during Q4CY20--
                                                                                                             registration of ~19,600 units in December 2020--highest ever.

Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset                                                                                                                            Edelweiss Securities Limited                                    3
HOT PROPERTY

                                                    Impact of stamp duty cut - Mumbai property registrations at all-time high in December

                                              25,000

                                              20,000

                                              15,000
     (Units)

                                              10,000

                                               5,000

                                                    0
                                                                          Apr-16
                                                                                      Jun-16

                                                                                                                                          Apr-17
                                                                                                                                                   Jun-17

                                                                                                                                                                                                   Apr-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                              Jun-18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Apr-19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Jun-19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Apr-20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Jun-20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Dec-18
                                                              Feb-16

                                                                                                 Aug-16

                                                                                                                      Dec-16
                                                                                                                                Feb-17

                                                                                                                                                             Aug-17
                                                                                                                                                                      Oct-17
                                                                                                                                                                               Dec-17
                                                                                                                                                                                         Feb-18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Aug-18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Feb-19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Aug-19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Dec-19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Feb-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Aug-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Dec-20
                                                                                                            Oct-16

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Oct-18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Oct-19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Oct-20
                                                                                                                                                                                 Number of registrations

    Source: Government documents, Edelweiss Research

                                                    Mumbai property sale value in Q4CY20 was 50% higher than that in 9mCY20

                                              350                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          30

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Average ticket size (INR mn)
                                              280                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          24
               Property sale value (INR bn)

                                              210                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          18

                                              140                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          12

                                               70                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          6

                                                0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          0
                                                                 Apr-16
                                                                             Jun-16

                                                                                                                                 Apr-17
                                                                                                                                          Jun-17

                                                                                                                                                                                        Apr-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                  Jun-18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Jun-19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Feb-19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Apr-19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Apr-20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Jun-20
                                                     Feb-16

                                                                                        Aug-16

                                                                                                             Dec-16
                                                                                                                       Feb-17

                                                                                                                                                   Aug-17

                                                                                                                                                                      Dec-17
                                                                                                                                                                               Feb-18

                                                                                                                                                                                                            Aug-18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Dec-18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Aug-19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Dec-19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Feb-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Aug-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Dec-20
                                                                                                   Oct-16

                                                                                                                                                             Oct-17

                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Oct-18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Oct-19

                                                                                                                                  Derived sales value (INR bn)                                                                  Avg. ticket size (INR mn) (LHS)                                                                                      Oct-20

    Source: Government documents, Edelweiss Research

                                                                                                                                                            Sales in major South India cities, which are dominated by the technology industry,
                                                                                                                                                            also gained momentum. For e.g. Sobha posted its best-ever quarterly sales in
                                                                                                                                                            Q3FY21 (refer to, Sobha - Sharp recovery in pre-sales), that too without any major
                                                                                                                                                            launches; Bengaluru was a key component of the company’s robust performance.

                                                                                                                                                            Launches: Launches also perked up during Q4CY20 after remaining muted during
                                                                                                                                                            Q2-Q3CY20. Supply came in at 52,820 units in Q4CY20, up 2% YoY and 62% QoQ.
                                                                                                                                                            Mumbai and Pune contributed ~44% to the launches during the quarter.

4         Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset                                                                                                                                                                                                                Edelweiss Securities Limited
HOT PROPERTY

                        Unsold inventory continued its downwards trend in CY20

                     800,000

                     640,000

                     480,000
           (Units)

                     320,000

                     160,000

                          0
                               Q1CY18   Q2CY18       Q3CY18   Q4CY18    Q1CY19     Q2CY19     Q3CY19     Q4CY19      Q1CY20     Q2CY20     Q3CY20      Q4CY20

                                               NCR      MMR      Bengaluru      Pune      Hyderabad        Chennai     Kolkata

       Source: Anarock, Edelweiss Research

                                                               Unsold inventory declined 2% YoY to ~638k units (flat QoQ).

                                                               ….which was a difficult one, to say the least
                                                               While the strong finish to the year did provide succour to developers, the impact of
                                                               a brutal couple of quarters during the middle of the year could not be washed away
                                                               completely.

                       Pandemic lent a heavy blow to the housing sector in CY20

                     300,000                                                                                                                         750,000

                     240,000                                                                                                                         660,000

                     180,000                                                                                                                         570,000
         (Units)

                                                                                                                                                               (Units)
                     120,000                                                                                                                         480,000

                      60,000                                                                                                                         390,000

                           0                                                                                                                         300,000
                                        CY17                        CY18                          CY19                          CY20
                                                              Supply           Demand             Unsold inventory

      Source: Anarock, Edelweiss Research

                                                               On annual basis, demand declined 47% YoY in CY20 to ~138k units. Supply, on the
                                                               other hand, fell 46% YoY to ~128k units. Consequently, unsold inventory declined by
                                                               ~10k units YoY to ~638k units.

                                                               Nevertheless, we believe CY21 is going to be a much better year for the housing
                                                               segment due to demand recovery (reasons discussed in detail below). We believe
                                                               absorption will continue to outstrip demand, leading to correction in unsold
                                                               inventory levels.

                                                               Why such a sharp revival in housing demand?
                                                               Only a brave few who looked at the housing sales data in Q2CY20 (a virtual washout)
                                                               could have predicted such a sharp recovery by the end of the year. The pace of pick-

Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset             Edelweiss Securities Limited               5
HOT PROPERTY

                                                                                                                           up in housing sales has taken almost everyone by surprise. We attribute the sharp
                                                                                                                           up move in sales to the following:

                                                                                                                                Low mortgage rates: The current mortgage rate at ~7% is amongst the lowest
                                                                                                                                 in the past decade. This has boosted housing demand significantly as the gap
                                                                                                                                 between EMIs and rents has shrunk considerably. This has led to many fence
                                                                                                                                 sitters taking the plunge.
                                              SBI Home loan rate
                                       15.0

                                       13.0

                                       11.0
           (%)

                                        9.0

                                        7.0

                                        5.0
                                                                              Jan-07

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Jan-18
                                              Jan-05

                                                              Jan-06

                                                                                          Jan-08

                                                                                                          Jan-09

                                                                                                                     Jan-10

                                                                                                                                      Jan-11

                                                                                                                                                       Jan-12

                                                                                                                                                                     Jan-13

                                                                                                                                                                                     Jan-14

                                                                                                                                                                                                Jan-15

                                                                                                                                                                                                                Jan-16

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Jan-17

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Jan-19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Jan-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Jan-21
                                                                                                                                                      SBI Home loan rate

    Source: SBI, Edelweiss Research

                                                                                                                                 A combination of lower mortgage rates and stagnant house prices has meant
                                                                                                                                 significantly improved house affordability. There has been a sizeable
                                                                                                                                 improvement in affordability since 2013.
                                              Improving house affordability
                                          7.0

                                          6.0                                                                                                                   Declining affordability
     House price to income ratio (x)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Steady improvement
                                          5.0                                                                                                                                                                                            in affordability
                                          4.0

                                          3.0

                                          2.0

                                          1.0

                                          0.0
                                                       1999

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2017
                                                                       2000

                                                                              2001

                                                                                       2002

                                                                                                   2003

                                                                                                             2004

                                                                                                                    2005

                                                                                                                               2006

                                                                                                                                               2007

                                                                                                                                                        2008

                                                                                                                                                                   2009

                                                                                                                                                                              2010

                                                                                                                                                                                         2011

                                                                                                                                                                                                2012

                                                                                                                                                                                                         2013

                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2014

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2015

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2016

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2018

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2019

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2020

                                                                                                                                                  House affordability

    Source: HDFC, Edelweiss Research

    Note: Affordability equals property price divided by annual income based on customer data of a large metro city

                                                                                                                                 The pattern has played out across all cities uniformly. A recent report by Knight
                                                                                                                                 Frank, which tracks affordability (defined as ratio of EMI to income), indicates
                                                                                                                                 that all major cities have witnessed significant improvement in affordability
                                                                                                                                 over the past decade.

6                                      Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset                                                                                                    Edelweiss Securities Limited
HOT PROPERTY

                                        Affordability has improved significantly over the past decade

                                  100       93
        EMI to income ratio (%)

                                  80
                                                  61
                                  60                      53                                                51
                                                                          48                                              47             45               46
                                                                     38                     39
                                  40                                                                                             31             30
                                                                                   28              26              26                                             24
                                  20

                                   0
                                             Mumbai            NCR        Bengaluru           Pune          Chennai       Hyderabad       Kolkata        Ahmedabad
                                                                                           2010      2015   2020

    Source: Knight Frank, Edelweiss Research

                                                                                        As per Knight Frank, an EMI/income ratio over 50% makes it difficult to secure
                                                                                        home loans from banks and housing finance companies, making it unaffordable
                                                                                        to purchase a house. Going by this yardstick, Mumbai remains the only major
                                                                                        city where houses are still relatively ‘unaffordable’.
                                                                                        In fact, except Mumbai and NCR, the ratio in all other cities is ~25-30% currently
                                                                                        (compared to 40-50% a decade earlier), indicating the rising attractiveness for
                                                                                        home buyers.
                                                                                       Pent-up demand: Pent-up demand from H1 of the year has materialised now.
                                                                                       Covid-19-induced factors: The pandemic accompanied by work-from-home
                                                                                        (WFH) has led to consumers realising the importance of owning a house rather
                                                                                        than renting one.
                                                                                       Stamp duty cut: One of the biggest reasons behind the surge in sales in Mumbai
                                                                                        and Pune is the decision of the Maharashtra government to reduce stamp duty
                                                                                        from 5% to 2% in these cities till end December 2020; rates will be at 3% from
                                                                                        January-March 2021.
                                                                                        The state government had already reduced stamp duty from 6% to 5% for two
                                                                                        years in Mumbai, MMR, Pune, Pimpri-Chinchwad and Nagpur. This means that
                                                                                        consumers booking houses in Q4CY20 were paying just 2% stamp duty
                                                                                        compared to 6% in Q4CY19. This was a significant sales driver.
                                                                                        In fact, now the state government has slashed construction premiums related
                                                                                        to on-going and new projects by 50% up to December 31, 2021 (refer to, Hot
                                                                                        Property - Cut in premium: Bonanza for developers). We believe this will
                                                                                        further boost housing sales.
                                                                                       Price correction/attractive payment schemes: Spooked by covid-19 and the
                                                                                        resultant crash in sales, many developers finally faced the situation and cut
                                                                                        prices, especially in the luxury segment where unsold inventory levels were
                                                                                        high. In addition, attractive payment schemes like deferred payment plans,
                                                                                        subvention plans, etc., were offered to consumers. This also induced many
                                                                                        homebuyers to take the plunge.

Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset                         Edelweiss Securities Limited   7
HOT PROPERTY

                                                         Covid-19 forces a change in consumer behaviour….
                                                         By forcing consumers to remain cooped up inside their homes for months, the
                                                         pandemic gave a ‘shock therapy’ to many people. This, coupled with WFH led to
                                                         people looking at their housing needs in a totally new way. Suddenly, the need to
                                                         have a bigger house with a designated ‘work area’, a balcony to unwind and the need
                                                         to be around nature started dominating consumer lexicon.

                                                         This has led to emergence of the following trends over the past few quarters:

                                                                                              Preference for higher unit sizes: With many couples forced to WFH, the need
                                                                                               for a bigger house was felt acutely. This led to demand for higher ticket sizes.
                                                                                               Multiple reports have confirmed this trend:
                                                                                               o As per Anarock, over the past few months, inquiries for larger homes in
                                                                                                 Bengaluru have increased up to 40% with consumers predominantly
                                                                                                 scouting for 3BHKs (average 1,800sft built-up area) against the previously-
                                                                                                 preferred 2BHKs.
                                                                                                   Similarly, in Noida and Ghaziabad, buyers are now looking for 3 or 4BHKs as
                                                                                                   opposed to the previously preferred 2BHKs. Those with lower budgets look
                                                                                                   for 2BHK + study (2.5) of around 1,200 sft of built-up area.
                                                                                               o Data from PropEquity indicates that the share of houses with lower ticket
                                                                                                 sizes (as % of overall sales) has fallen in the current year compared to CY19;
                                                                                                 conversely, a higher proportion of larger ticket size houses are being sold.
                                                                                                       Higher ticket sizes preferred post covid-19

                                                                                                24.5
                                                             Proportion of overall sales (%)

                                                                                                23.1

                                                                                                21.7

                                                                                                20.3

                                                                                                18.9

                                                                                                17.5
HOT PROPERTY

                                                                                                                      Consumers looking at higher ticket sizes post covid-19

                                                                                                                100

                                                                             Proportion of overall sales (%)
                                                                                                                 80

                                                                                                                                                                                    57
                                                                                                                 60                                                       51
                                                                                                                                 49
                                                                                                                                          43
                                                                                                                 40

                                                                                                                 20

                                                                                                                  0
                                                                                                                                  < INR 5 mn                              > INR 5 mn

                                                                                                                                               H2CY19      H2CY20

                                                              Source: PropEquity, Edelweiss Research

                                                               A Magicbricks report indicated that searches for 4BHK properties doubled due to
                                                                the pandemic and WFH. On a micro-level, Gurugram witnessed almost 73%
                                                                individuals seeking properties that were 3BHKs or more.

                                                                                                       Luxury sales: Not only has the pandemic led to demand for bigger houses,
                                                                                                        consumers want more amenities too if they have to spend more time at home.
                                                                                                        This has led to higher demand for luxury homes, a segment which has been in
                                                                                                        the doldrums for the past few years. Since the segment was struggling with high
                                                                                                        unsold inventory, many developers finally took the plunge and cut prices post
                                                                                                        covid-19; this also boosted sales of luxury homes.
                                                                                                                      Luxury unit sales have jumped post the pandemic

                                                                                                               10.0

                                                                                                                9.0
                                                                  Proportion of overall sales (%)

                                                                                                                8.0

                                                                                                                7.0

                                                                                                                6.0

                                                                                                                5.0
                                                                                                                                INR 15-30 mn                              > INR 30 mn
                                                                                                                                           CY19         Jan-Oct 2020

                                                              Source: PropEquity, Edelweiss Research

                                                                                                               o Anarock indicated that luxury homes worth INR5bn were sold in October
                                                                                                                 2020 (up 230% YoY) in South-Central Mumbai.
                                                                                                               o Sunteck Realty’s sales in the Signia High project in Q2FY21 almost matched
                                                                                                                 the cumulative sales in the project over FY15-20.
                                                                                                               o News reports also indicate that Oberoi Realty sold homes worth INR2.3bn
                                                                                                                 in the last week of December 2020 (stamp duty rates were set to increase
                                                                                                                 by 1% from January 2021) in the Worli project. As a matter of comparison,
                                                                                                                 total bookings in the project in FY20 were of a similar amount.

Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset                                                   Edelweiss Securities Limited   9
HOT PROPERTY

                                                                                                o The phenomena is not restricted to Mumbai. Media articles indicate that
                                                                                                  developers in Bengaluru and in NCR (DLF, Supertech, Central Park and
                                                                                                  M3M) have also witnessed greater demand for luxury products.
                                                                                                    DLF, in fact, has sold independent floors worth over INR3bn in Gurugram
                                                                                                    during the festive season. It had launched 88 residences in the form of
                                                                                                    premium independent floors (at a price point of INR37.5-42.5mn each),
                                                                                                    spread across 22 plots, in the DLF City Phase 3 in Gurugram and managed
                                                                                                    to sell them in a short time.
                                                                                               Shift towards suburbs: While most wanted a home closer to office earlier, the
                                                                                                growing prevalence of WFH and budgetary concerns (due to need for bigger
                                                                                                homes) has led to many consumers being OK at looking houses in the suburbs.
                                                                                         In some way, covid-19 has upended the trend towards reduction in apartment size
                                                                                         and tepid sales in the luxury real estate segment, which was being witnessed for the
                                                                                         past few years. It yet remains to be seen whether these changes are permanent in
                                                                                         nature or will be forgotten once normalcy resumes.

                                                                                         ….and further strengthens trend of industry consolidation
                                                                                         Once the pandemic flexed its muscle and lockdown started, most developers were
                                                                                         left scrambling to manage their cash flow situation. While smaller developers found
                                                                                         it difficult to weather the ill effects of the pandemic, strong balance sheets enabled
                                                                                         tier-1 developers to still achieve construction finance and launch projects. This led
                                                                                         to strengthening of the trend of industry consolidation, which has been going on for
                                                                                         the past few years.

                                                     Share of organised developers in launches skyrocketed post covid-19
      Share of top 10 developers in launches

                                               100
                                                                                                                                     89

                                               80                                                                                                                             71
                                                                                    69

                                               60
                       (%)

                                                                                                   44
                                                                                                                   38
                                               40                                                                                                           31
                                                                    28                                                                          26
                                                                                                            16                                                      18
                                               20                                        13                                 12
                                                          9
                                                                          6
                                                0
                                                              MMR             NCR            Bengaluru      Hyderabad        Chennai                 Pune              Kolkata

                                                                                                   CY11    CY19   CY20*

     Source: PropEquity, Edelweiss Research

     Note: * CY20 refers to January-October 2020 period

                                                                                         The share of top-10 developers in launches in January-October 2020 was much
                                                                                         higher compared to CY19. In fact, in NCR, Chennai and Kolkata, more than two-thirds
                                                                                         of the overall launches were from top-10 developers.

                                                                                         Something similar happened on the demand front as well. Concerns about survival
                                                                                         of tier 2/3 players and funding availability meant that consumers flocked to tier
                                                                                         1/organised developers while buying houses.

10                              Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset                Edelweiss Securities Limited
HOT PROPERTY

                                             Organised developers increased their share in demand in CY20

                                       50                                                                                    47
     Share of top 10 developers in

                                                                                           38                                                                        39
                                       40                                 37
            absorption (%)

                                                                                                           29
                                       30                 27                                                                                      27
                                                                                  22                                22                                    21
                                                                                                                                      20
                                       20                      17                                 17
                                               14

                                       10

                                        0
                                                    MMR             NCR            Bengaluru       Hyderabad          Chennai              Pune                Kolkata
                                                                                           CY11   CY19    CY20*

    Source: PropEquity, Edelweiss Research

    Note: * CY20 refers to January-October 2020 period

                                                                                   As a result, the share of organised developers in demand, which had already been
                                                                                   increasing for the past few years, further rose in the current year.

                                             Market share of nine listed companies highest since FY14

                                       700                                                                                                                           18

                                                                                                                                                                           Average ticket size (INR mn)
        Property sale value (INR bn)

                                       560                                                                                                                           15

                                       420                                                                                                                           12

                                       280                                                                                                                           9

                                       140                                                                                                                           6

                                        0                                                                                                                            3
                                              1QFY13
                                              2QFY13
                                              3QFY13
                                              4QFY13
                                              1QFY14
                                              2QFY14
                                              3QFY14
                                              4QFY14
                                              1QFY15
                                              2QFY15
                                              3QFY15
                                              4QFY15
                                              1QFY16
                                              2QFY16
                                              3QFY16
                                              4QFY16
                                              1QFY17
                                              2QFY17
                                              3QFY17
                                              4QFY17
                                              1QFY18
                                              2QFY18
                                              3QFY18
                                              4QFY18
                                              1QFY19
                                              2QFY19
                                              3QFY19
                                              4QFY19
                                              1QFY20
                                              2QFY20
                                              3QFY20
                                              4QFY20
                                              1QFY21
                                              2QFY21

                                                                          Industry pre-sales        Top 9 listed cos market share (RHS)

    Source: PropEquity, Company, Edelweiss Research

                                                                                   While the share of nine listed companies in industry pre-sales rose to a high of ~18%
                                                                                   in Q1FY21--highest since FY14—it declined to ~12% in Q2FY21--still second highest
                                                                                   since FY14.

                                                                                   Office space: Leasing picks up in Q4CY20…
                                                                                   The covid-19 pandemic has led to significant uncertainty in the hitherto ‘stable’
                                                                                   office segment. The economic uncertainty due to the pandemic and WFH led to
                                                                                   collapse in office space demand in Q2CY20. Since then, though leasing has been
                                                                                   recovering, it remains far lower than the peak witnessed in CY19.

                                                                                   As per JLL, office demand in Q4CY20 came in at 8.27msf, up 52% QoQ. Except
                                                                                   Bengaluru, all other major cities witnessed improvement in net absorption during
                                                                                   the quarter. While IT/ITeS continued to contribute a lion’s share of leasing, sectors
                                                                                   such as e-commerce, healthcare and FMCG are also driving demand.

Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset                           Edelweiss Securities Limited                                  11
HOT PROPERTY

                                                                Hyderabad topped the absorption charts during the quarter; the city, along with
                                                                Bengaluru, accounted for more than half of the net absorption during the quarter.

                                                                Despite the pick up in demand, leasing during the quarter was down 40% YoY.

                     Office space demand and supply ramped up in Q4CY20

                15

                12

                9
        (msf)

                6

                3

                0
                     Q1CY18     Q2CY18     Q3CY18      Q4CY18        Q1CY19   Q2CY19      Q3CY19      Q4CY19     Q1CY20         Q2CY20   Q3CY20     Q4CY20

                                                                           Supply     Demand

     Source: JLL, Edelweiss Research

                                                                As far as supply is concerned, new completions during Q4CY20 came in at 12.8msf,
                                                                up 39% QoQ. Tech-dominated cities of Hyderabad, Bengaluru and Chennai
                                                                contributed more than 70% of the completions during the quarter. Like demand,
                                                                supply too was down 18% YoY during the quarter.

                                                                As always, technology sector contributed the largest quantum to office leasing.
                                                                Despite headwinds, the co-working segment maintained its share in overall office
                                                                leasing. Manufacturing’s share, on the other hand, rose YoY in H2CY20.

                     H2CY19 demand break down                                                       H2CY20 absorption break down
                      Other                            BFSI
                                                                                                  Other
                     services                          16%
                                                                                                 services
                       22%
                                                                                                   18%
                                                                                                                                         BFSI
                                                                                                                                         16%

       Co-working
          10%                                                                          Co-working
                                                                                          10%
                                                              ITeS
                                                              40%
           Manufactur
              ing
             12%                                                                          Manufactur                                            ITeS
                                                                                             ing                                                41%
                                                                                            15%

     Source: Knight Frank, Edelweiss Research
                                                                                     Source: Knight Frank, Edelweiss Research

                                                                …however, much more is needed
                                                                India’s office space witnessed leasing of ~26msf in CY20. While this was down 44%
                                                                compared to the peak of 46msf in CY19, it was lower by just 19% compared to the
                                                                average demand during CY16-18. Considering that Q2CY20 was a virtual washout,
                                                                this is not too bad.

12          Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset              Edelweiss Securities Limited
HOT PROPERTY

                    While pandemic landed a hard blow in CY20, not all is lost

               55                                                                                                                                   20

               44                                                                                                                                   16

               33                                                                                                                                   12

                                                                                                                                                          Vacancy (%)
       (msf)

               22                                                                                                                                   8

               11                                                                                                                                   4

               0                                                                                                                                    0
                     CY11      CY12        CY13        CY14        CY15        CY16        CY17        CY18         CY19   CY20        CY21E
                                                       Supply           Demand             Vacancy levels (RHS)

    Source: JLL, Edelweiss Research

                                                              As far as supply is concerned, CY20 chimed in with 36msf, down 30% YoY. This was
                                                              about 9% higher than the average supply during the CY16-18, highlighting the
                                                              disproportionate impact of covid-19 on demand compared to supply.

                                                              With supply outstripping demand, vacancy levels rose for the first time since CY13;
                                                              vacancies rose ~120bps YoY to 14% at CY20 end.

                                                              The way ahead
                                                              We believe office leasing will pick up gradually as employees return to office in a
                                                              significant way (likely in H2CY21) and leasing decisions (which have been put on hold
                                                              for the past few quarters) are revisited. The impact of WFH and the changed
                                                              economic realities are some of the issues that office demand will have to contend
                                                              with.

                                                              Simultaneously, a part of the upcoming supply has also been deferred as some
                                                              developers face funding crunch, while others have reworked their plans due to
                                                              economic uncertainties.

                                                              JLL estimates ~38-40msf supply and ~32-35msf demand in CY21. This will be at par
                                                              or slightly higher than the average annual net absorption during C16-18. Thus, office
                                                              supply will continue to eclipse demand in CY21, leading to increase in vacancies
                                                              going ahead. The good thing is that the healthy performance during CY14-19 has
                                                              ensured that vacancies still remain manageable, especially in tech-dominated cities.
                                                              Bengaluru and Pune, for example, still enjoy single digit vacancy levels.

                                                              Over the longer run, we believe the negative impact of WFH will be more than
                                                              compensated by de-densification and higher demand from industries like
                                                              technology, e-commerce, data centres, etc. This, coupled with the high degree of
                                                              consolidation in the Indian office space, means that the end of the upcycle is still far
                                                              away, in our view.

Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset          Edelweiss Securities Limited                 13
HOT PROPERTY

                                                          Retail space: Recovering fast after a hard knock
                                                          The retail space was the hardest hit due to covid-19. While office developers
                                                          continue to get 95% plus rents despite WFH, closure of malls during the lockdown
                                                          dealt a knock-out blow to retailers and retail realty developers alike. The Indian retail
                                                          segment is estimated to have suffered a loss of INR900bn during April-June 2020, as
                                                          per the Shopping Centres Association of India (SCAI). Mall developers too bore the
                                                          brunt as they were forced to give rent waivers/deferments to retailers struggling to
                                                          stay afloat.

                                                          However, the past couple of months and especially the festive season have
                                                          witnessed handsome recovery in consumption. Footfalls have increased significantly
                                                          and conversion ratios have surged (90% post-covid-19 versus 20-40% pre-covid-19).
                                                          For e.g., for Phoenix Mills (PML), consumption in malls in November 2020 was 65-
                                                          99% of the November 2019 figure.

                                                                        PML--Rising consumption trend a positive

                                                                 100

                                                                 80

                                                                 60
                                                           (%)

                                                                 40

                                                                 20

                                                                  0
                                                                         HSP &        PMC Bangalore       PMC Pune        PMC Mumbai PMC Chennai &
                                                                        Palladium                                                      Palladium
                                                                            Jun-20      Jul-20    Aug-20       Sep-20      Oct-20    Nov-20

                                                          Source: Company, Edelweiss Research

                                                          Note: Consumption (%) in a particular month is reflected as a proportion of
                                                          consumption in the corresponding month in 2019.

                                                          Note: November 2020 data reflects first four weeks of the month.

                                                          Note: HSP & Palladium were operational for 27 days in August 2020. PMC Bangalore
                                                          was open for 23 days and 21 days in June 2020 and July 2020 respectively. PMC Pune
                                                          was operational for 27 days in August 2020.

                                                          Note: All data on like-to-like basis

                                                          PML also reported that consumption across its retail portfolio in Q3FY21 was up
                                                          192% QoQ and ~66% YoY of Q3FY20 level. Consumption in December 2020 was flat
                                                          MoM and ~70% of December 2019.

                                                          We believe rising consumption is definitely a significant positive for retailers and will
                                                          bring buoyancy back into the retail space soon.

                                                          Pandemic hastens consolidation in retail space
                                                          The pandemic has led to significant amount of pain for the retail realty sector as it
                                                          has forced many retailers to shut shop. As per Anarock, vacancies at malls in NCR,
                                                          Pune, Bengaluru, Chennai and Hyderabad have risen 50-530bps YoY (Mumbai is the
                                                          only exception since it has seen malls vacancy decline by 390bps YoY).

14    Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset             Edelweiss Securities Limited
HOT PROPERTY

                                                                  This despite reduction in rentals by mall owners. While many mall developers expect
                                                                  vacancies to reach pre-covid-19 levels by March 2021, we have our doubts. With
                                                                  liquidity continuing to be a challenge for upcoming malls, we believe the retail realty
                                                                  space is set for a significant consolidation with weaker players likely to exit the
                                                                  market and stronger ones expanding their portfolio through acquisitions.

                                                                  We have already witnessed significant reduction in supply in the retail space. Prior
                                                                  to the covid-19-induced lockdown in March, Anarock had estimated addition of ~54
                                                                  new malls in 2020 spread over nearly 22.2msf. Of this, while the top-7 cities were to
                                                                  see new supply of nearly 35 malls spread over ~14.6msf, tier 2/3 cities were to
                                                                  witness new supply of 19 new malls spanning 7.6msf.

                  Mall completion timelines have been deferred post covid-19
             16

             13

             10
     (msf)

             6

             3

             0

                                                                                                                            CY20E (pre-
                   CY09

                             CY10

                                       CY11

                                                 CY12

                                                           CY13

                                                                       CY14

                                                                                CY15

                                                                                         CY16

                                                                                                   CY17

                                                                                                             CY18

                                                                                                                    CY19

                                                                                                                                          CY20 (post-covid)

                                                                                                                                                              CY21E
                                                                                                                              covid)
                                                                  New completions       Net absorption

    Source: Anarock, Edelweiss Research

    Note: Data for top seven cities

                                                                  However, due to the pandemic, most new completions have been deferred (to 2021
                                                                  and beyond) and leasing activity delayed by developers. Major Indian cities added
                                                                  just five new malls spanning 2.75msf in 2020 with malls becoming operational in
                                                                  Gurugram, Delhi, Lucknow and Bengaluru during the year.

                                                                  Anarock now expects 14 new malls spanning 5.9msf to be completed by CY21-end;
                                                                  fit-outs are underway in at least 10 of them. These will include:

                                                                     Mumbai: Six new malls spanning 1.65msf.
                                                                     Bengaluru: At least three new malls spanning over 1.4msf.
                                                                     Lucknow: Launch of two new malls spanning over 1.15msf.
                                                                     Hyderabad: One new mall covering more than 0.2msf.
                                                                     Thiruvananthapuram (Kerala): One new mall spread over 1.1msf.
                                                                     Rourkela (Odisha): One new mall covering almost 0.35msf.
                                                                  We believe funding constraints will mean that concerns about future supply will
                                                                  continue to linger. Also, loss of business due to the pandemic and the change in
                                                                  contractual agreements (with higher contribution from revenue share and less from
                                                                  minimum guaranteed revenues) mean that some of the existing mall owners will
                                                                  continue to face difficulties.

Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset          Edelweiss Securities Limited               15
HOT PROPERTY

                                                          In such a scenario, consolidation in the retail space will accelerate going ahead.
                                                          Experienced players like PML are likely to use their strong financial position to take
                                                          advantage of the acquisition opportunities available in a stressed environment.

                                                          Funding scenario too aiding consolidation
                                                          The volatility throughout the year brought a lot of challenges for lenders to realty
                                                          developers. From worries about a new set of NPAs and loan moratorium due to the
                                                          pandemic to price wars amongst lenders for home loans, 2020 saw it all.

                                                          While the year witnessed a few developments that were positive for realty
                                                          developers, other developments made their life tough. We take a look at major
                                                          developments during the year:

                                                          Positive developments:

                                                              SBI launched a Residential Builder Finance with Buyer Guarantee (RBBG)
                                                               scheme, which will issue a guarantee of completion for select residential
                                                               projects to its home loan customers.
                                                              Stressed realty fund brings certain projects to completion stage: The fund has
                                                               cleared investments worth more than INR132bn for 136 projects, and has
                                                               started deploying funds across 36 projects. As per news reports, two such
                                                               projects are nearing completion, while seven are likely to reach the milestone
                                                               in H2CY21.
                                                              RBI permitted the extension of date of commencement of commercial
                                                               operations (DCCO) of project loans for commercial real estate, delayed for
                                                               reasons beyond promoters’ control, by another year. As per Propstack, this is
                                                               likely to have benefited ~USD6bn (INR419bn) of loans whose moratorium
                                                               period was coming to an end in 2020.
                                                              To counter the ill effects of the pandemic, RBI allowed a moratorium of six
                                                               months on payment of instalments in respect of all term loans outstanding as
                                                               on March 1, 2020.
                                                              The central bank also allowed banks to go for one-time restructuring of loans
                                                               that were facing covid-19 stress without classifying them as NPAs.
                                                              RBI rationalised risk weights on home loans and linked them to LTV ratios only
                                                               for all new housing loans sanctioned up to March 31, 2022.
                                                              It allowed banks to restructure loans to realty companies on the basis of the
                                                               project and not the developer.
                                                          Negative developments:

                                                              Loan sanctions to realty developers continue to trend down: The number of
                                                               loans sanctioned to realty developers has been declining continuously over the
                                                               past few years. The trend continued in CY20 with the number of sanctions
                                                               falling 35% YoY in 9mCY20.

16    Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset    Edelweiss Securities Limited
HOT PROPERTY

                      Loan sanctions to RE developers have been falling                               35% decline in loan sanctions in 9mCY20

            1,700                                                                               225
                        1506       1470                                                                    196                                                                             198

            1,360                                                                               180                                                 170
                                           1142                                                                         158
                                                      1043
            1,020                                                                               135                                                                                              117
      (x)

                                                                                         (x)
                                                                641                                                                                                91
             680                                                                                90
                                                                         366
             340                                                                                45

                  0                                                                              0

                                                                                                                       Q1

                                                                                                                                                         Q2

                                                                                                                                                                                             Q3
                        CY15       CY16    CY17       CY18     CY19 9mCY20
                                Number of loans sanctioned                                                                                       CY19         CY20

    Source: Propstack, Edelweiss Research                                               Source: Propstack, Edelweiss Research

                                                                       Lenders seek higher security, receivables cover for realty developers’ funding:
                                                                        Despite the positive developments listed above, fund availability to tier 2/3
                                                                        developers remained tight largely due to the risk perception about the realty
                                                                        industry.
                                                                        A Propstack analysis indicated the divergence in treatment of tier 1 and tier 2/3
                                                                        developers by lenders. For e.g.,
                                                                        o      The security cover for large loans (>INR5bn) is 1.48x, which is at a 20%
                                                                               discount to average security cover of INR0-500mn loans (which is at 1.79x).
                                                                               Large loans are typically taken by tier-1 developers and hence attract lower
                                                                               risk weight.

                      Higher security cover asked in CY20                                             Higher security cover for smaller loans

            2.0
                                                                                                2.0
                                                                                                        1.79
                                                                                                1.8                           1.71
            1.8                                                                                                                                         1.63              1.62
                                                                        1.66                    1.6
                                               1.61          1.62                                                                                                                                1.48
                        1.58        1.55
                                                                                          (x)

            1.6                                                                                 1.4
      (x)

                                                                                                1.2
            1.4
                                                                                                1.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                  INR 5 bn plus
                                                                                                         INR 0-500mn

                                                                                                                               INR 500-1000 mn

                                                                                                                                                         INR 1.0-2.5 bn

                                                                                                                                                                           INR 2.5-5.0bn

            1.2

            1.0
                       CY16         CY17       CY18          CY19       CY20
                               Security cover asked by lenders
                                                                                                                            Security cover asked by lenders

    Source: Propstack, Edelweiss Research                                               Source: Propstack, Edelweiss Research

Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset                                                 Edelweiss Securities Limited                    17
HOT PROPERTY

                    Higher security cover for loans with higher interest                             Higher security cover for smaller tenure loans

              2.0                                                                              2.2       2.1
                                                                   1.86
              1.8                                                                              2.0
                                                     1.69
                                                                                               1.8                            1.68             1.64
       (x)

                                                                                         (x)
              1.6                        1.5
                        1.44                                                                   1.6                                                                  1.55
              1.4
                                                                                               1.4
              1.2                                                                              1.2

                                                                                                                                                                      > 60 months
                                                                                                         15%), which are normally charged in the case of
                                                                           tier 2/3 developers, the security cover is 1.86x, which is at a premium of
                                                                           30% plus over loans at interest rates of
HOT PROPERTY

                          Overall interest declined by 60bps in CY20                                                                                                      Interest on term loans declined by 100bps in CY20
             15
                                                                                 13.8                                                                           15

             13                                                                               12.6                                                                         12.6                                                               12.6
                                                                                                                                                                13
                                                         11.7                                            11.6                                                                              11.8                                                         11.6          11.6
                                                                   11.3                                                                                                                                                                                                         11.0
                                                                                                                    11.0                                        11
      (%)

                                                                                                                                                      (%)
             11             10.3                                                                                                                                                                           9.7
                                               10.2                                                                                                                                                                            9.2
                                                                                                                                                                9
                 9
                                                                                                                                                                7
                 7
                                                                                                                                                                5

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           All
                                                                                                                                                                                                                Term loan

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 LRD
                                                                                                                                                                                   Debenture
                 5
                                                                                     NBFC

                                                                                                                 All
                                    Bank

                                                             HFC

                                                          CY19              CY20                                                                                                                               CY19                   CY20

    Source: Propstack, Edelweiss Research                                                                                                        Source: Propstack, Edelweiss Research

                                                                                                          Historically, P/E multiples of realty companies have had a negative correlation with
                                                                                                          interest rates. This is because declining interest rates are not only accompanied by
                                                                                                          an improvement in profitability, but also have the potential to fuel higher demand
                                                                                                          from end users. In addition, lower cost of capital boosts rental asset valuation. As a
                                                                                                          result, a lower interest rate regime historically led to outperformance of realty
                                                                                                          stocks.

                          BSE realty index P/E trajectory with respect to RBI repo rate
            50                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               10.0

            40                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               8.0

            30                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               6.0
      (x)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   (%)
            20                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               4.0

            10                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2.0

            0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                0.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Jul-20
                           Jul-08

                                                Jul-09

                                                                   Jul-10

                                                                                     Jul-11

                                                                                                        Jul-12

                                                                                                                           Jul-13

                                                                                                                                             Jul-14

                                                                                                                                                                 Jul-15

                                                                                                                                                                                         Jul-16

                                                                                                                                                                                                           Jul-17

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Jul-18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Jul-19
                                                                                                                  Jan-13
                 Jan-08

                                      Jan-09

                                                         Jan-10

                                                                            Jan-11

                                                                                               Jan-12

                                                                                                                                    Jan-14

                                                                                                                                                       Jan-15

                                                                                                                                                                          Jan-16

                                                                                                                                                                                                  Jan-17

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Jan-18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Jan-19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Jan-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Jan-21

                                                                                                        BSE Realty Index P/E                                         Repo Rate (RHS)

    Source: Bloomberg, Edelweiss Research

                                                                                                          With interest rates likely to remain soft in the near term, we believe support to
                                                                                                          valuations of realty companies will continue.

                                                                                                          CY21 outlook: A lot to look forward to
                                                                                                          We believe CY21 will a year of growth and gradual improvement for companies in
                                                                                                          our coverage. While the housing segment will continue to clock good volumes,
                                                                                                          commercial and retail segments will continue to recover and likely reach normalcy
                                                                                                          by the year end.

                                                                                                          We foresee consolidation in the realty space in favour of organised developers to
                                                                                                          gather pace; rising capital intensity of the business, credit crunch and focus on
                                                                                                          execution are likely to aid developers with strong balance sheets and established

Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset                                                                                                                       Edelweiss Securities Limited                                 19
HOT PROPERTY

                                                               brands. Developers with robust balance sheets will also benefit from attractive
                                                               business development opportunities. Overall, we expect stronger players to gain
                                                               market share going ahead.

                                                               Resumption of normalcy leads to revision in target prices
                                                               Keeping in mind the anticipated recovery in CY21, we are increasing our pre-sales
                                                               growth assumptions for our coverage companies. The overall risk-on in the market
                                                               compels us to reduce NAV discount and WACC as well.

                                                               We had already increased target price for Sobha when it reported its operational
                                                               numbers for Q3FY21. The changes for the rest of the companies are given below:

                  Target prices revised for coverage stocks
                                                          Current valuation framework                    Proposed valuation framework
                                                                                                                                                   TP
     Company             RECO    CMP (INR)                                                                                                                Upside
                                                       WACC (%) Discount to NAV (%)                   WACC (%)       Discount to NAV (%)        (INR)
                                                                                                                                                             (%)
     DLF                  BUY           246                  12.0                    15                     11.0                      5           310        26.0
     Godrej
                         HOLD         1,472                  11.0                      0                    10.0                      0         1,500         1.9
     Properties
     Oberoi Realty       HOLD           585                  12.0                    15                     11.0                      5           639         9.2
     Sunteck Realty       BUY           370                  12.0                    10                     11.0                      0           463        24.9
     Brigade              BUY           269                  12.0                    20                     12.0                     15           355        32.1
     Source: Edelweiss Research

                                                               While the entire realty pack has witnessed a sharp price uptick over the past quarter,
                                                               we still believe realty stocks are attractive from a medium-term perspective
                                                               considering rising consolidation. With investors getting increasingly confident about
                                                               housing sales trajectory, we believe the next leg of re-rating can come when leasing
                                                               and consumption normalise in the office and retail space, respectively. Hence, we
                                                               prefer DLF and Brigade Enterprises.

                                                               We downgrade Godrej Properties from ‘BUY’ to ‘HOLD’ primarily because of its rich
                                                               valuations. We continue to like the company’s operating model and believe it will be
                                                               amongst the biggest beneficiaries of industry consolidation. Indeed the company has
                                                               performed exceedingly well as far as geographical diversification, market share gains
                                                               and sales growth are concerned. We believe its success story will continue and
                                                               expect healthy pre-sales growth going ahead. However, the recent run-up in the
                                                               stock price leaves little on the table as an upside.

20         Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset               Edelweiss Securities Limited
HOT PROPERTY

                                                                                           DISCLAIMER
    Edelweiss Securities Limited (“ESL” or “Research Entity”) is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (“SEBI”) and is licensed to carry on the business of broking, depository
    services and related activities. The business of ESL and its Associates (list available on www.edelweissfin.com) are organized around five broad business groups – Credit including Housing
    and SME Finance, Commodities, Financial Markets, Asset Management and Life Insurance.

    This Report has been prepared by Edelweiss Securities Limited in the capacity of a Research Analyst having SEBI Registration No.INH200000121 and distributed as per SEBI (Research Analysts)
    Regulations 2014. This report does not constitute an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Securities as
    defined in clause (h) of section 2 of the Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1956 includes Financial Instruments and Currency Derivatives. The information contained herein is from publicly
    available data or other sources believed to be reliable. This report is provided for assistance only and is not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment
    decision. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Each recipient of this report should make such investigation as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent
    evaluation of an investment in Securities referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult his own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such
    investment. The investment discussed or views expressed may not be suitable for all investors.

    This information is strictly confidential and is being furnished to you solely for your information. This information should not be reproduced or redistributed or passed on directly or indirectly
    in any form to any other person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a
    citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which
    would subject ESL and associates / group companies to any registration or licensing requirements within such jurisdiction. The distribution of this report in certain jurisdictions may be
    restricted by law, and persons in whose possession this report comes, should observe, any such restrictions. The information given in this report is as of the date of this report and there can
    be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with this information. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. ESL reserves the right to make
    modifications and alterations to this statement as may be required from time to time. ESL or any of its associates / group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or
    damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. ESL is committed to providing independent and transpa rent recommendation
    to its clients. Neither ESL nor any of its associates, group companies, directors, employees, agents or represe ntatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct, indirect, special or
    consequential including loss of revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information. Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make
    investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance .The disclosures of interest
    statements incorporated in this report are provided solely to enhance the transparency and should not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. The information
    provided in these reports remains, unless otherwise stated, the copyright of ESL. All layout, design, original artwork, conce pts and other Intellectual Properties, remains the property and
    copyright of ESL and may not be used in any form or for any purpose whatsoever by any party without the express written permission of the copyright holders.

    ESL shall not be liable for any delay or any other interruption which may occur in presenting the data due to any reason including network (Internet) reasons or snags in the system, break
    down of the system or any other equipment, server breakdown, maintenance shutdown, breakdown of communication services or inability of the ESL to present the data. In no event shall
    ESL be liable for any damages, including without limitation direct or indirect, special, incidental, or consequential damages, losses or expenses arising in connection with the data presented
    by the ESL through this report.

    We offer our research services to clients as well as our prospects. Though this report is disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the
    same time. We will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report.

    ESL and its associates, officer, directors, and employees, research analyst (including relatives) worldwide may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the
    Securities, mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such Securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial
    instruments of the subject company/company(ies) discussed herein or act as advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies) or have other potential/material conflict of interest with
    respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions at the time of publication of research report or at the time of public appearance. ESL may have proprietary long/short
    position in the above mentioned scrip(s) and therefore should be considered as interested. The views provided herein are general in nature and do not consider risk appetite or investment
    objective of any particular investor; readers are requested to take independent professional advice before investing. This should not be construed as invitation or solicitation to do business
    with ESL.

    ESL or its associates may have received compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months. ESL or its associates may have managed or co-managed public offering of securities
    for the subject company in the past 12 months. ESL or its associates may have received compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject
    company in the past 12 months. ESL or its associates may have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services
    from the subject company in the past 12 months. ESL or its associates have not received any compensation or other benefits from the Subject Company or third party in connection with the
    research report. Research analyst or his/her relative or ESL’s associates may have financial interest in the subject company. ESL and/or its Group Companies, their Directors, affiliates and/or
    employees may have interests/ positions, financial or otherwise in the Securities/Currencies and other investment products mentioned in this report. ESL, its associates, research analyst
    and his/her relative may have other potential/material conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions at the time of publication of research
    report or at the time of public appearance.

    Participants in foreign exchange transactions may incur risks arising from several factors, including the following: ( i) exchange rates can be volatile and are subject to large fluctuations; ( ii)
    the value of currencies may be affected by numerous market factors, including world and national economic, political and regulatory events, events in equity and debt markets and changes
    in interest rates; and (iii) currencies may be subject to devaluation or government imposed exchange controls which could affect the value of the currency. Investors in securities such as
    ADRs and Currency Derivatives, whose values are affected by the currency of an underlying security, effectively assume currency risk.
    Research analyst has served as an officer, director or employee of subject Company: No
    ESL has financial interest in the subject companies: No
    ESL’s Associates may have actual / beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of research
    report.
    Research analyst or his/her relative has actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication
    of research report: No
    ESL has actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of research report: No
    Subject company may have been client during twelve months preceding the date of distribution of the research report.
    There were no instances of non-compliance by ESL on any matter related to the capital markets, resulting in significant and material disciplinary action during the last three years except
    that ESL had submitted an offer of settlement with Securities and Exchange commission, USA (SEC) and the same has been accepted by SEC without admitting or denying the findings in
    relation to their charges of non registration as a broker dealer.
    A graph of daily closing prices of the securities is also available at www.nseindia.com
    Analyst Certification:
    The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities,
    and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset                                            Edelweiss Securities Limited               21
HOT PROPERTY
     Additional Disclaimers

     Disclaimer for U.S. Persons
     This research report is a product of Edelweiss Securities Limited, which is the employer of the research analyst(s) who has prepared the research report. The research analyst(s) preparing
     the research report is/are resident outside the United States (U.S.) and are not associated persons of any U.S. regulated bro ker-dealer and therefore the analyst(s) is/are not subject to
     supervision by a U.S. broker-dealer, and is/are not required to satisfy the regulatory licensing requirements of FINRA or required to otherwise comply with U.S. rules or regulations regarding,
     among other things, communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
     This report is intended for distribution by Edelweiss Securities Limited only to "Major Institutional Investors" as defined by Rule 15a-6(b)(4) of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Act, 1934
     (the Exchange Act) and interpretations thereof by U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in reliance on Rule 15a 6(a)(2). If the recipient of this report is not a Major Institutional
     Investor as specified above, then it should not act upon this report and return the same to the sender. Further, this report may not be copied, duplicated and/or transmitted onward to any
     U.S. person, which is not the Major Institutional Investor.
     In reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a-6 of the Exchange Act and interpretations thereof by the SEC in order to conduct certain business with Major Institutional
     Investors, Edelweiss Securities Limited has entered into an agreement with a U.S. registered broker-dealer, Edelweiss Financial Services Inc. ("EFSI"). Transactions in securities discussed in
     this research report should be effected through Edelweiss Financial Services Inc.

     Disclaimer for U.K. Persons
     The contents of this research report have not been approved by an authorised person within the meaning of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 ("FSMA").

     In the United Kingdom, this research report is being distributed only to and is directed only at (a) persons who have professional experience in matters relating to investments falling within
     Article 19(5) of the FSMA (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the “Order”); (b) persons falling within Article 49(2)(a) to (d) of the Order (including high net worth companies and unincorporated
     associations); and (c) any other persons to whom it may otherwise lawfully be communicated (all such persons together being referred to as “relevant persons”).

     This research report must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not relevant persons. Any investment or investment activity to which this research report relates is available only
     to relevant persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons. Any person who is not a relevant person should not act or rely on this research report or any of its contents. This
     research report must not be distributed, published, reproduced or disclosed (in whole or in part) by recipients to any other person.

     Disclaimer for Canadian Persons
     This research report is a product of Edelweiss Securities Limited ("ESL"), which is the employer of the research analysts who have prepared the research report. The research analysts
     preparing the research report are resident outside the Canada and are not associated persons of any Canadian registered adviser and/or dealer and, therefore, the analysts are not subject
     to supervision by a Canadian registered adviser and/or dealer, and are not required to satisfy the regulatory licensing requirements of the Ontario Securities Commission, other Canadian
     provincial securities regulators, the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada and are not required to otherwise comply with Canadian rules or regulations regarding, among
     other things, the research analysts' business or relationship with a subject company or trading of securities by a research analyst.

     This report is intended for distribution by ESL only to "Permitted Clients" (as defined in National Instrument 31-103 ("NI 31-103")) who are resident in the Province of Ontario, Canada (an
     "Ontario Permitted Client"). If the recipient of this report is not an Ontario Permitted Client, as specified above, then the recipient should not act upon this report and should return the
     report to the sender. Further, this report may not be copied, duplicated and/or transmitted onward to any Canadian person.

     ESL is relying on an exemption from the adviser and/or dealer registration requirements under NI 31-103 available to certain international advisers and/or dealers. Please be advised that
     (i) ESL is not registered in the Province of Ontario to trade in securities nor is it registered in the Province of Ontario to provide advice with respect to securities; (ii) ESL's head office or
     principal place of business is located in India; (iii) all or substantially all of ESL's assets may be situated outside of Canada; (iv) there may be difficulty enforcing legal rights against ESL because
     of the above; and (v) the name and address of the ESL's agent for service of process in the Province of Ontario is: Bamac Services Inc., 181 Bay Street, Suite 2100, Toronto, Ontario M5J 2T3
     Canada.

     Disclaimer for Singapore Persons
     In Singapore, this report is being distributed by Edelweiss Investment Advisors Private Limited ("EIAPL") (Co. Reg. No. 201016306H) which is a holder of a capital markets services license and
     an exempt financial adviser in Singapore and (ii) solely to persons who qualify as "institutional investors" or "accredited i nvestors" as defined in section 4A(1) of the Securities and Futures
     Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore ("the SFA"). Pursuant to regulations 33, 34, 35 and 36 of the Financial Advisers Regulations ("FAR"), sections 25, 27 and 36 of the Financial Advisers Act, Chapter
     110 of Singapore shall not apply to EIAPL when providing any financial advisory services to an accredited investor (as defined in regulation 36 of the FAR. Persons in Singapore should contact
     EIAPL in respect of any matter arising from, or in connection with this publication/communication. This report is not suitable for private investors.

     Disclaimer for Hong Kong persons
     This report is distributed in Hong Kong by Edelweiss Securities (Hong Kong) Private Limited (ESHK), a licensed corporation (BOM -874) licensed and regulated by the Hong Kong Securities
     and Futures Commission (SFC) pursuant to Section 116(1) of the Securities and Futures Ordinance “SFO”. This report is intended for distribution only to “Professional Investors” as defined
     in Part I of Schedule 1 to SFO. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is only available to professional investor and will be engaged only with professional
     investors.” Nothing here is an offer or solicitation of these securities, products and services in any jurisdiction where their offer or sale is not qualified or exempt from registration. The
     report also does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of any individual recipients. The Indian
     Analyst(s) who compile this report is/are not located in Hong Kong and is/are not licensed to carry on regulated activities in Hong Kong and does not / do not hold themselves out as being
     able to do so.

     Copyright 2009 Edelweiss Research (Edelweiss Securities Ltd). All rights reserved.

                                                                                                                                                                ADITYA
                                                                                                                                                                                       Digitally signed by ADITYA NARAIN
                                                                                                                                                                                       DN: c=IN, o=EDELWEISS SECURITIES
     Aditya Narain                                                                                                                                                                     LIMITED, ou=SERVICE,
                                                                                                                                                                                       2.5.4.20=3dc92af943d52d778c99d69c48a8
                                                                                                                                                                                       e0c89e548e5001b4f8141cf423fd58c07b02,

                                                                                                                                                                NARAIN
     Head of Research                                                                                                                                                                  postalCode=400011, st=MAHARASHTRA,
                                                                                                                                                                                       serialNumber=e0576796072ad1a3266c279
                                                                                                                                                                                       90f20bf0213f69235fc3f1bcd0fa1c3009279
                                                                                                                                                                                       2c20, cn=ADITYA NARAIN
     Aditya.Narain@edelweissfin.com                                                                                                                                                    Date: 2021.01.11 22:50:29 +05'30'

22          Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset                                                     Edelweiss Securities Limited
You can also read