Increased circulating C-reactive protein and macrophage-colony stimulating factor are complementary predictors of long-term outcome in patients ...

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European Heart Journal (2005) 26, 1618–1624
              doi:10.1093/eurheartj/ehi192
                                                                                                                         Clinical research

Increased circulating C-reactive protein and
macrophage-colony stimulating factor are
complementary predictors of long-term outcome
in patients with chronic coronary artery disease
Ignatios Ikonomidis1*, John Lekakis1, Ioanna Revela1, Felicita Andreotti2, and

                                                                                                                                                        Downloaded from https://academic.oup.com/eurheartj/article/26/16/1618/632755 by guest on 01 February 2022
Petros Nihoyannopoulos2
1
 Department of Clinical Therapeutics, University of Athens, Alexandra Hospital, Vas. Sofias 80, Athens 11528, Greece; and
2
 Imperial College School of Medicine, National Heart & Lung Institute, Cardiology Department, Hammersmith Hospital,
London, UK
Received 27 September 2004; revised 30 December 2005; accepted 3 February 2005; online publish-ahead-of-print 30 March 2005

    KEYWORDS                              Aims We investigated, in a 6 year follow-up study, whether circulating levels of C-reactive protein (CRP)
    Inflammation;                          and macrophage colony stimulating factor (MCSF) have an independent or complementary prognostic
    Coronary artery disease;              value in patients with chronic coronary artery disease (CAD).
    Long-term prognosis                   Methods and results MCSF and CRP were measured in 100 patients with chronic CAD. Of 95 (33%)
                                          patients, 31 who completed the 6 year follow-up presented adverse events (death, myocardial infarc-
                                          tion, and unstable angina). In multivariable analysis (including traditional risk factors and medications),
                                          the upper tertiles of MCSF (814 pg/mL) and CRP (2.5 mg/L) levels were independently associated
                                          with a 13- and 6-fold increase in risk of events, respectively (P , 0.01). Patients with combined high
                                          CRP and MCSF had a higher absolute risk of events than patients with elevated MCSF or CRP alone (75
                                          vs. 59 vs. 32%, respectively, P , 0.01). The mean event-free time was 39, 64, and 52 months in patients
                                          with elevated MCSF, elevated CRP, and their combination, respectively.
                                          Conclusion In patients with chronic CAD, the prognostic value of MCSF is independent and complemen-
                                          tary to that of CRP. MCSF is a particularly useful prognostic marker when CRP levels are low, but also
                                          provides additional information concerning risk and time-course of events in patients with elevated CRP.

Introduction                                                                  contribute to the development of acute coronary events in
                                                                              patients with atherosclerosis.
Macrophage colony stimulating factor (MCSF) released by an                      Circulating CRP and MCSF levels have been associated
injured endothelium1 causes monocyte/macrophage acti-                         with death and recurrent ischaemic events in patients
vation,2 increases the macrophages’ cholesterol uptake,3                      with acute coronary syndromes.17–21 In addition, CRP pre-
mediates monocyte-induced apoptosis of vascular smooth                        dicts outcome in patients with chronic coronary artery
muscle cells,4 and favours foam cell formation.5 MCSF-                        disease (CAD).17–19 However, it remains unclear whether
activated macrophages migrate to the fibrous cap of an                         CRP and MCSF have an independent or additive prognostic
atherosclerotic plaque,6 produce metalloproteinases7 and,                     value in patients with chronic CAD during a long-term
thus, may cause plaque destabilization.4,7 MCSF also pro-                     follow-up period. We, therefore, prospectively compared
motes platelet activation,8,9 tissue factor expression,10 and                 the prognostic significance of CRP to that of MCSF or their
the release of the procoagulant cytokine, interleukin-6                       combination in patients with chronic CAD during a 6 year
(IL-6),11 which leads to C-reactive protein (CRP) pro-                        follow-up period.
duction.12 CRP has a direct proinflammatory effect on the
endothelium,13 mediates LDL uptake by macrophages,14
and may initiate the process of coagulation by inducing vas-                  Methods
cular smooth muscle cell apoptosis15 and monocyte                             Patient selection
expression of tissue factor.16 Through these actions, both
MCSF and CRP may promote thrombosis and, thus,                                Between 1994 and 1997, we prospectively examined 150
                                                                              consecutive outpatients with: effort angina of 1 year duration,
                                                                              documented exercise-induced ischaemia, 50% luminal diameter
    * Corresponding author. Tel: þ30 210 338 1497; fax: þ30 210 777 0473.     stenosis of one or more epicardial artery at angiography
     E-mail address: ignoik@otenet.gr                                         (performed within 5 + 2 months of screening), and written

& The European Society of Cardiology 2005. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oupjournals.org
CRP and MCSF as complementary predictors in patients with chronic CAD                                                                      1619

informed consent. All patients underwent a treadmill exercise
test according to the Bruce protocol. The number of metabolic         Table 1 Clinical characteristics of the study population
equivalents (Mets) achieved at ST-segment depression .0.1 mV,         Age (years)                                     54 + 5 (32–68)
60 ms after the J point, was used to quantify the ischaemic           Gender (M/F)                                    84/16 (84%)
threshold. Of these, 50 patients were excluded for the following      Cholesterol (mmol/L)                            5.9 + 0.99 (4.8–8.1)
reasons: 25 for an acute coronary event or coronary revasculariza-    Triglycerides (mmol/L)                          1.8 + 1.2 (0.8–5.7)
tion within the previous 6 months, seven for cerebral or periph-      Body mass index (kg/m2)                         28 + 4 (22–36)
eral vascular disease, 10 for diabetes mellitus, and eight for        Smoking                                         60 (60%)
malignant or known inflammatory diseases. Patients with diabetes       Hypertension                                    34 (34%)
were excluded becasue hyperglycaemia is a powerful activator of       Parental CAD                                    50 (50%)
MCSF production.22 Thus, the final study cohort consisted of 100       CCS anginal class
patients (84 men, 16 women, mean age 54 + 5 years, range                 1                                            40 (40%)
32–68) (Table 1 ). The study was approved by the local Research          2                                            47 (47%)
Ethics Committee.                                                        3                                            13 (13%)

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                                                                      Diseased coronary arteries
Blood sampling                                                           1                                            29   (30%)
                                                                         2                                            36   (35%)
A fasting morning blood sample was taken from each patient for the
                                                                         3                                            35   (35%)
measurement of plasma MCSF and CRP at inclusion in the study.
                                                                      Previous MI                                     52   (52%)
Aliquots of plasma were stored at 2708C and analysis were per-
                                                                      Drugsa
formed within a year of sampling.
                                                                      b-Blockers                                      52 (52%)
                                                                      Ca2þ-Blockers                                   51 (51%)
Laboratory assays                                                     Long-acting nitrates                            26 (26%)
Plasma MCSF was measured by enzyme-linked immunoassay (‘human         Lipid lowering                                  41 (41%)
MCSF Quantikinine’, sensitivity 20 pg/mL, R&D system, Minneapolis,    Antiplatelets                                  100 (100%)
MN, USA). CRP was measured using particle-enhanced immuno-            Diuretics                                       15 (15%)
nephelometry (N Latex CRP mono, Behring Diagnostics). The assay       ACE-inhibitors                                  25 (25%)
detects a range of values between 0.175 and 1100 mg/L. The            Monotherapyb                                    48 (48%)
intra-assay coefficients of variation were ,5% for both tests.         GTN onlyc                                       16 (16%)

                                                                        CCS, Canadian Cardiovascular Society; SA, chronic stable angina; ACE,
Follow-up                                                             angiotensin-converting enzyme; GTN, glyceryl nitrate. Lipid lowering:
                                                                      40% statins and 1% fibrates.
Of the 100 patients, 95 (95%) completed a mean follow-up of             a
                                                                          Medical treatment at inclusion. The patients’ medication was similar
6 years (72+3 months). The remaining five were lost to follow          at the beginning and at the end of the follow-up period (P . 0.05).
up and were considered as censored cases. Patients were followed        b
                                                                          Patients on only one of the three classes of antianginal drugs.
                                                                        c
as outpatients at 6–12 month intervals, starting from the day of         Patients on only sublingual GTN at inclusion.
blood sampling. The clinical endpoints considered in our analysis
were the occurrence of cardiac death, acute myocardial infarction
(MI), and hospital admission for unstable angina. Elective percuta-
neous coronary intervention (PCI) or coronary artery bypass graft-    overall sample of 80 patients was required to detect a 10%
ing (CABG) was not considered, as they were not thought to            increase of the event rate in the group of patients with high con-
represent an acute coronary event. Of the 100 patients (23%), 23      centrations of inflammatory markers using a two-tailed test with a
had a revascularization procedure (6 PCI and 17 CABG) during          significance level of 5%, a power level of 90%, a drop-out rate of
the 6 year follow-up. Deaths of cardiac origin were confirmed by       5%, and a total follow-up period of 6 years. We prospectively stra-
death certificates and were verified by medical record review or        tified patients into three groups, on the basis of the tertiles of the
primary care physician interview. Non-cardiac death was not           measured biochemical indices (MCSF: ,449 pg/mL, n ¼ 34;
included in the analysis. MI was confirmed by ST-elevation or          450–813 pg/mL, n ¼ 34; 814 pg/mL, n ¼ 32; CRP: ,1.09 mg/L,
non-ST elevation changes on ECG and diagnostic increases in           n ¼ 33; 1.1–2.4 mg/L, n ¼ 33; 2.5 mg/L, n ¼ 34),18 and cardiac
serum cardiac enzymes. Unstable angina was diagnosed by the           event-free survival curves were constructed by Kaplan–Meier
occurrence of rest angina with non-ST segment elevation ischaemic     analysis.18 Differences among curves were assessed using the log
ECG changes or with a positive troponin T test without concomi-       rank test. Because the outcomes for the first and second tertile
tant increase in serum creatine kinase levels.                        of MCSF and CRP plasma levels were not statistically different,
                                                                      they were combined for the final Kaplan–Meier and Cox pro-
                                                                      portional hazard analyses.18,24 Univariate Cox proportional hazard
Statistical analysis
                                                                      analysis24 was used to assess the predictors of cardiac events for
Inflammatory indices are presented as medians and interquartiles,      the following covariates: age, gender, smoking status, hyperten-
as the data were not normally distributed. Stata 8.0 (Stata           sion, hyperlipidaemia, parental CAD, previous (.6 months) MI,
Corporation, College Station, TX, USA) software was used. Differ-     multivessel disease (two and three vessel disease), non-use of
ences within and among groups were analysed by Wilcoxon signed        b-blockers, calcium blockers, nitrates, angiotensin-converting
rank test, Mann–Whitney U test, or analysis of variance (Kruskal–     enzyme inhibitor, lipid-lowering medication, MCSF  814 pg/mL,
Wallis and Friedman test). Simple relations were assessed by          and CRP  2.5 mg/L. The covariates with a P-value ,0.10 at
Spearman’s rank correlation. Multiple relations were assessed by      univariate analysis were entered in the multivariable model.24
linear regression analysis after logarithmic transformation of MCSF   Cox multivariable analysis with a stepwise selection method was
and CRP. Categorical variables were compared by contingency x2        used to estimate the final predictors of cardiac events.
test.                                                                 Significance between models was calculated by the likelihood
   Only the first event of the combined primary outcome variable       ratio test. In multivariable analysis, a P , 0.05 was considered
(cardiac death, non-fatal MI, and unstable angina) was counted        statistically significant.
as an endpoint. On the basis of an annual event rate of 2% for           Interactions between MCSF, CRP, smoking, and multivessel
the primary end-point in patients with stable angina,23 an            disease were also assessed in the multivariable analysis. To
1620                                                                                                               I. Ikonomidis et al.

adjust the final model for other atherosclerotic risk factors and for   patients with MCSF and CRP levels lower than the corre-
medication, a forced entry approach was used.24 The results of the     sponding upper tertiles (Figure 1 ), suggesting a complemen-
Cox regression analysis are expressed as hazard ratios (HR) and        tary role of MCSF and CRP.
corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI). The appropriateness           Kaplan–Meier analysis showed that patients with
of the risk assumption was examined by preparing the log (2log)
                                                                       MCSF 814 pg/mL had a worse prognosis than patients
plots of the survival function. The final multivariable model was
validated by plotting the residuals against the fitted values (gener-
                                                                       with MCSF ,814 pg/mL (log rank: 28.7, P , 0.0001,
alized Cox–Snell residuals) and testing the goodness of fit.            Figure 2A ), and that patients with CRP 2.5 had a greater
Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was also used to      risk of adverse events than patients with CRP ,2.5 mg/L
compare the predictive value of MCSF vs. CRP levels. The curves        (log rank: 12.64, P , 0.001, Figure 2B ). Patients with com-
were constructed by plotting sensitivity against (one-specificity).     bined elevated CRP (2.5 mg/L) and MCSF (814 pg/mL)
The area under the curve (AUC) for MCSF or CRP was also calcu-         had a higher risk of adverse events than patients with elev-
lated, in addition to the standard risk factors (age . 60 years,       ated CRP levels alone (log rank: 8.35, P ¼ 0.003, Figure 3 ).
sex, smoking, hypelipidaemia, and hypertension) using logistic         Thus, the prognostic information provided by MSCF may be
regression analysis. Wilcoxon’s signed rank test for dependent

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                                                                       complementary to that provided by CRP. Finally, survival
samples was used for comparisons between the unadjusted AUCs,
                                                                       tables showed that the mean event-free time was 64
and one-sample test of proportions for comparisons between the
adjusted AUCs.
                                                                       months (95% CI: 53–75) in patients with elevated CRP
                                                                       alone, compared with 39 months (95% CI: 23–53) in patients
                                                                       with elevated MCSF alone (log rank ¼ 4.67, P ¼ 0.03), and
Results                                                                52 months (95% CI: 40–65) in patients with combined elev-
                                                                       ated CRP and MCSF (log rank ¼ 8.35, P ¼ 0.003), indicating
Clinical characteristics (Table 1)                                     a significant difference in the time-course of events pre-
All patients had an ejection fraction 55% at left ventricu-           dicted by high levels of MCSF vs. those of CRP.
lography. None presented with signs of heart failure at
inclusion. Twenty-five patients (25%) presented myocardial
                                                                       Univariate and multivariable predictors of cardiac
ischaemia at a workload of ,7 Mets during treadmill exer-
                                                                       events
cise test. The proportion of patients receiving antianginal,
antiplatelet, or lipid-lowering drugs was similar at the               Univariate Cox proportional hazard analysis showed that
beginning and at the end of the follow-up period (P . 0.05).           male gender, smoking status, multivessel disease, and the
                                                                       upper tertiles of MCSF or CRP levels were significant predic-
Association of MCSF and CRP with atherosclerotic                       tors of cardiac events (P , 0.05, Table 2 ) among traditional
risk factors                                                           risk factors and medications.
                                                                          Patients with high MCSF (814 pg/mL) or CRP (2.5 mg/L)
By multivariable regression analysis, MCSF and CRP levels              had a 5.9-fold (95% CI: 2.74–12.81) (P , 0.001) and 2.6-fold
were related to smoking (r ¼ 0.37 and r ¼ 0.28 respectively,           (95% CI: 1.29–5.42) (P ¼ 0.008) higher risk of cardiac events,
P , 0.01) and MCSF additionally to multivessel disease                 compared with patients with low levels of MCSF or CRP,
(r ¼ 0.21, P ¼ 0.035), among age, gender, body mass                    respectively.
index, hypertension, hyperlipidaemia, family history of                   The multivariable Cox regression model included gender,
CAD and medications. MCSF levels were related to those of              smoking, multivessel disease, and elevated MCSF and CRP,
CRP (r ¼ 0.47, P , 0.05).                                              as only these variables were significant at P , 0.1 at univari-
                                                                       ate analysis among traditional risk factors and medication.
Cardiac events                                                         Using the backwards stepwise selection method, smoking
Thirty-one patients presented cardiac events within the                status was removed from the model. Then, using the
follow-up period. Of these, 6 died, 9 suffered a non-ST                forward stepwise selection method, the non-significant cov-
segment elevation MI, and 16 had an episode of unstable                ariates previously examined in univariate analysis were
angina. The median time from the start of follow-up to                 added. No new significant covariates were added in the mul-
the occurrence of cardiac events was 24 (12–68) months.                tivariable model at the end of this analysis. At this point,
  Of the 31 (23%), patients with cardiac events, 7 had a               interactions between inflammatory indices and smoking or
revascularization procedure (two PCI and five CABG) at                  multivessel disease were examined in the multivariable
a median time of 13 (12–21) months of follow-up or at a                model. A significant interaction emerged between the sub-
median time of 16 (9–51) months before the adverse                     groups of MCSF and CRP (P ¼ 0.03 for interaction),
event. Moreover, 16 of the 69 patients without events                  suggesting that the adjusted HR for cardiac events was
(23%) had a revascularization procedure (4 PCI and                     different between each subgroup of MCSF and CRP. The
12 CABG) at a median time of 14 (12–46) months of                      interaction term between MCSF and CRP remained signi-
follow-up. There was no difference in revascularization                ficant after using the backward selection procedure
rate between patients with or without events (P ¼ 0.178).              (P ¼ 0.02). However, multivessel disease became non-
                                                                       significant (P . 0.05) and, thus, was removed from the
                                                                       final model. The final multivariable model was therefore
Predictors of outcome                                                  constructed by male gender, MCSF levels 814 pg/mL, CRP
Kaplan–Meier life-time analysis for MCSF and CRP                       levels 2.5 mg/L, and their interaction term, as
Survival tables showed that the absolute risk (%) of cardiac           summarized in Table 2.
events was 75% in patients with combined high CRP                         Cox proportional hazard analysis showed that patients
(.2.5 mg/L) and MCSF (.814 pg/mL), 59% in patients with                with high MCSF (814 pg/mL) alone had a 13.17-fold (95%
high MCSF alone, 32% in patients high CRP alone, and 8% in             CI: 4.14–42) higher risk of cardiac events compared with
CRP and MCSF as complementary predictors in patients with chronic CAD                                                                              1621

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Figure 1 Absolute risk (%) of cardiac events in patients with high or low
MCSF ( or ,814 pg/mL) and CRP ( or , 2.5 mg/L) levels derived by survi-
val tables (P , 0.05). N indicates the number of patients in each subgroup.

                                                                              Figure 3 Kaplan–Meier survival curves for patients with combinations of
                                                                              high or low MCSF ( or , 814 pg/mL) and CRP ( or , 2.5 mg/L) levels
                                                                              (Log rank: 45.09, P ¼ 0.00001). The event-free rate in patients with com-
                                                                              bined high CRP and MCSF is lower than that in patients with high CRP alone
                                                                              (Log rank: 8.35, P ¼ 0.003). The survival curves for patients with combined
                                                                              high MCSF and CRP and for patients with high MCSF alone crossed over
                                                                              during follow-up indicating an interaction between the subgroups of CRP
                                                                              and MCSF.

                                                                              and CRP did not change: 14 (95% CI: 3.6–60) for MCSF and
                                                                              6.29 (95% CI: 1.46–27) for CRP (P ¼ 0.001).

                                                                              Comparison of the usefulness of MCSF and CRP
                                                                              as predictors of cardiac events
                                                                              Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed
                                                                              a greater AUC for plasma MCSF levels than for CRP levels
                                                                              [80% (95% CI: 70 to 91) vs. 61% (95% CI: 55 to 74),
                                                                              z ¼ 8.419, P ¼ 0.00001 for the unadjusted AUC and
                                                                              z ¼ 2.605; P ¼ 0.009 for the adjusted AUC], suggesting a
                                                                              superior prognostic value of MCSF than of CRP for
                                                                              predicting cardiac events (Figure 4 ).

                                                                              Discussion
                                                                              In this prospective study of patients with chronic CAD, we
                                                                              demonstrate for the first time that CRP and MCSF plasma
                                                                              levels are complementary predictors of adverse outcome,
                                                                              among traditional atherosclerotic risk factors such as age,
                                                                              male gender, smoking, hypertension, hyperlipidaemia,
Figure 2 Kaplan–Meier survival curves for patients with chronic CAD. (A )     family history of CAD, and multivessel disease, during a 6
The event-free rate in patients with MCSF  814 pg/mL (upper tertile of       year follow-up period. The combination of increased CRP
MCSF levels) is significantly lower than that in patients with MCSF ,814 pg/
mL (Log rank: 28.7, P ¼ 0.00001). (B ) The event-free rate in patients with
                                                                              and MCSF levels was associated with a greater absolute
CRP levels 2.5 mg/L (upper tertile of CRP levels) is significantly lower      and relative risk of future events and a shorter event-free
than that in patients with CRP levels ,2.5 mg/L (Log rank: 12.64,             period compared with elevated CRP levels alone in patients
P ¼ 0.0001).                                                                  with chronic CAD.

patients with low MCSF and low CRP (P ¼ 0.0001), whereas
                                                                              MCSF, CRP, and acute cardiac events
patients with high CRP levels (2.5 mg/L) alone had a                         In the present study, male gender, multivessel disease,
6.24-fold (95% CI: 1.74–22.42) higher risk of cardiac events                  smoking status, and the upper tertiles of MCSF and CRP
compared with patients with low CRP and low MCSF levels                       levels were significant predictors of prognosis by univariate
(P ¼ 0.005, Table 2 ).                                                        analysis. However, in multivariable analysis only male
  After adjustment for other potential confounders such as                    gender and the upper tertiles of MCSF and CRP levels
age, hypertension, hyperlipidaemia, parental CAD, previous                    retained their prognostic value among age, smoking, hyper-
MI, and medications, the HR associated with elevated MCSF                     tension, hyperlipidaemia, family history of CAD, and
1622                                                                                                                                      I. Ikonomidis et al.

 Table 2 Cox proportional hazard analysis for the predictors of cardiac events

 Variables                                          Univariate analysis                                          Multivariable analysis

                                                    P-values                HR (95% CI)                          P-values                HR (95% CI)
                         a
 Inflammatory indices
  MCSF  814 pg/mL                                  0.0001                     5.9 (2.74–12.81)                  0.0001                  13.17 (4.1–42)c
   CRP  2.5 mg/L                                   0.008                      2.6 (1.29–5.42)                   0.005                    6.24 (1.74–22.42)
   MCSF  CRPb                                                                                                   0.02
 Coronary risk factors
   Age                                              0.80                    1.005 (0.97–1.05)
   Male gender                                      0.06                      6.6 (0.9–49)                       0.03                     8.34 (1.13–61.4)
   Smoking                                          0.03                      2.9 (1.09–7.5)

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   Hyperlipidemia                                   0.49                     1.32 (0.6–2.9)
   Hypertension                                     0.76                     1.11 (0.5–1.2)
   Parental CAD                                     0.17                      1.7 (0.8–3.4)
   Previous MI                                      0.29                     2.02 (0.5–7.5)
   Multivessel disease                              0.05                      2.5 (0.98–6.2)
 Medicationa
   No use of nitrates                               0.17                       1.6 (0.8–3.4)
   No use of b-blockers                             0.22                      1.56 (0.7–3.1)
   No use of Ca-blockers                            0.60                      0.83 (0.4–1.6)
   No use of lipid-lowering drugs                   0.38                       1.4 (0.7–3.8)
   No use of ACE-Inhibitors                         0.23                      1.54 (0.76–3.1)

   All covariates except age are categorical. HR, hazard ratio; CI, confidence interval.
   a
     The cut-off values for MCSF and CRP correspond to the upper tertiles of their levels that are compared with the combination of the first and second tertile
 of their levels by multivariable analysis.18
   b
     MCSF  CRP indicates the interaction term between CRP  2.5 mg/L and MCSF  814 pg/mL entered in the multivariable model.
   c
    HR for patients with high MCSF or CRP alone vs. patients with combined low MCSF and CRP; multivessel: two and three vessel; ACE, angiotensin converting
 enzyme; NS, not significant (P . 0.05).

                                                                                  cardiac events in patients with stable and unstable angina
                                                                                  during a 2 year follow-up period. Saito et al. 21 showed the
                                                                                  prognostic significance of increased MCSF levels for future
                                                                                  cardiac events in a mixed population of patients with
                                                                                  stable and unstable angina during 14 months of follow-up.
                                                                                  However, in their study, increased MCSF levels on admission
                                                                                  and incidence of future events were associated with the
                                                                                  diagnosis of unstable angina at inclusion, indicating that
                                                                                  the results of their study were mainly driven by the subgroup
                                                                                  of patients with unstable angina. Conversely, in the present
                                                                                  study, we showed that high MCSF levels predicted an adverse
                                                                                  outcome in patients with chronic CAD.
                                                                                     Moreover, in this study, patients with CRP levels ,2.5 mg/L,
                                                                                  who are considered at low risk of cardiac events,17 had a
                                                                                  13-fold risk of future events when their MCSF levels were
                                                                                  .814 pg/mL compared with when they were ,814 pg/mL.
Figure 4 Receiver operating curves for the prediction of cardiac events
                                                                                  Thus, in the presence of low CRP levels, MCSF becomes par-
showed a greater area under the curve for MCSF levels than for CRP levels         ticularly useful in distinguishing patients at a substantially
[80% (95% CI: 70–91) vs. 61% (95% CI: 50–74), P ¼ 0.00001].                       lower or higher risk of cardiac events.
                                                                                     Furthermore, patients with the combined elevation of
                                                                                  MCSF and CRP levels had a higher absolute and relative
multivessel disease. Because atherosclerotic risk factors                         risk of future events when compared with patients with
promote cytokine production1–4,22,25,26 and, consequently,                        elevated levels of a single inflammatory factor or to patients
CRP release,12,27,28 these findings suggest that inflammatory                       with low levels of both inflammatory indices. Thus, high
indices may serve as a surrogate marker of the cumulative                         MCSF provided additional prognostic information in patients
effect of traditional risk factors on the prognosis of patients                   with high CRP levels and vice versa.
with chronic CAD. However, it is possible that MCSF and CRP                          Our results suggest that MCSF and CRP levels may be
may directly contribute to plaque rupture, thrombo-                               synergistic and complementary predictors of adverse
sis,4,6,7,10,15,16 and thus, to the genesis of acute cardiac                      outcome in patients with chronic CAD. Indeed, both CRP
events.17–21 Our findings are in agreement with those of                           and MCSF induce apoptosis of vascular smooth muscle
others18 who found that CRP levels independently predicted                        cells4,15 and tissue factor expression10,16 in atherosclerotic
CRP and MCSF as complementary predictors in patients with chronic CAD                                                                         1623

lesions and, consequently, may cause a synergic increase in         Thus, increased MCSF may signal patients with more aggres-
plaque thrombogenicity and instability.                             sive CAD and, therefore, with a higher risk for acute ischae-
   Survival tables showed that the mean event-free time was         mic events at an earlier follow-up time compared with
39 months in patients with elevated MCSF when compared              patients with elevated CRP alone. Our results are in line with
with 64 months in patients with elevated CRP and 52                 those of other investigators who found that MCSF but not
months in patients with combined elevation of CRP and               CRP was an independent predictor of in-hospital and short-
MCSF. This finding suggests that increased MCSF levels               term outcome in patients with unstable angina.20 For these
alone or combined with elevated CRP levels may predict              reasons, MCSF levels may be considered a reliable alternative
the incidence of future coronary events occurring at an             marker of outcome in patients with chronic stable CAD.
earlier time when compared with elevated CRP levels alone.
   Atheroslerotic risk factors1,22,25 or infections2 may trigger    Study limitations
increased MCSF production, mainly by endothelial cells,2 in
the initial process of atherosclerosis.31 Moreover, MCSF-acti-      The following limitations should be acknowledged.
                                                                    Inflammatory indices were measured in peripheral blood.

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vated macrophages produce further amounts of MCSF that
can enter the systemic circulation.2 MCSF promotes the              This does not allow firm conclusions on the release of
release of IL-6,11 which drives CRP production.12 Thus,             these factors within the coronary circulation. Medications
MCSF production by endothelial cells and resident macro-            may affect plasma levels of the measured inflammatory
phages at atherosclerotic lesions may precede the cyto-             indices.19,27 However, the study subgroups did not differ in
kine-mediated release of CRP by hepatocytes.12 As a                 antianginal, antiplatelet, or lipid lowering treatment at
result, MCSF may promote apoptosis of smooth muscle                 enrolment or at the end of the follow-up period. Thus, any
cells,4 release of metalloproteinases,7 platelet acti-              possible influence of medications on cytokine plasma
vation,8,9 tissue factor expression10 and, consequently,            levels was evenly distributed within the study subgroups.
plaque instability at an earlier time than CRP. Although            The sample size of our study population is relatively small,
CRP and MCSF have been detected in human atherosclerotic            though adequately powered (.80%) for the differences
lesions,28,29 CRP is not present in the normal vessel wall,2,28     reported between the various study subgroups. The study
suggesting a role of CRP in the advanced phases of athero-          population comprised a high proportion of smokers and
genesis. Recent evidence suggests that a balance of pro-            male patients and thus our results should be interpreted in
thrombotic15 and anti-thrombotic effects of CRP30,31 on             view of this. Finally, the number of patients using b-blockers
the vessel wall may be important in the development of              and lipid lowering drugs was relatively low; thus, our study
adverse cardiac events.32 Increased MCSF production may             population may not be representative of the current
disrupt this balance towards increased apoptosis and                patient population, in whom the current widespread use of
plaque thrombogenicity at an early stage of atherosclerosis         b-blockers and statins may influence the prognostic value
by enhancing the apoptotic effects of CRP.4,15 Alternatively,       of the measured inflammatory markers.
MCSF may facilitate the structural modification of the
native, pentameric, CRP to monomeric subunits which are             Conclusion
required for proinflammatory actions on endothelial
cells.33 Through this action MCSF may enhance and acceler-          In this prospective study of patients with chronic CAD, high
ate the proinflammatory effects of circulating CRP on vascu-         CRP, and MCSF levels were independent and complementary
lar tissues so that these are augmented and become evident          predictors of adverse outcome during a 6 year follow-up
at an earlier time than they would have become in the pre-          period. Furthermore, the prognostic value of elevated
sence of elevated CRP levels alone. The above pathophysio-          MCSF became evident at an earlier time during follow-up
logical mechanisms may explain the greater risk of future           than that of elevated CRP. Our findings are clinically rel-
events and the shorter event-free time in patients with com-        evant, as MCSF levels provide additional information on
bined high CRP and MCSF levels compared with patients with          the risk and time course of adverse events in patients with
elevated CRP levels alone observed in the present study.            elevated CRP levels, but are also useful to further stratify
Thus, the measurement of MCSF provides additional prog-             the risk of patients who have low levels of CRP.
nostic information on the risk and time-course of events
compared with the measurement of CRP in patients with               Acknowledgement
chronic CAD.
                                                                    This work was supported by Hammersmith Hospital Grant no. RC/
   In this study, a head-to-head comparison between the pre-
                                                                    259.
dictive value of MCSF and of CRP showed that the upper
tertile of MCSF levels was associated with an approximately
two-fold higher absolute (59 vs. 32%) and relative (13.17 vs.
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