INDIVIDUAL STATEMENT OF EVIDENCE OF GAVIN DUANE
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INDIVIDUAL STATEMENT OF EVIDENCE OF GAVIN DUANE
Advisory Committee to Kaufland Stores in Victoria Pakenham, Melbourne
6 December 2019
Individual Statement of Evidence of Gavin Duane
Advisory Committee to Kaufland Stores in Victoria Pakenham, Melbourne 0
6 December 2019
CONTENTS
1 INTRODUCTION 2
2 PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT 4
3 CENTRES PLANNING 7
4 TRADE AREA ANALYSIS 11
5 PROJECTED SALES AND IMPACTS 20
6 ALTERNATIVE SITES 23
7 CONCLUSIONS 26
DECLARATION 27
APPENDIX 1 28
Gavin Duane Curriculum Vitae 28
Individual Statement of Evidence of Gavin Duane
Advisory Committee to Kaufland Stores in Victoria Pakenham, Melbourne 1
6 December 2019
1 INTRODUCTION
Personal Details
1.1 My business address is Level 6 56 Pitt Street, Sydney, New South Wales, 2000.
1.2 I am an economist and Director of Location IQ.
Qualifications and Experience
1.3 I provide independent advice in the field of market analysis and strategic research for a wide range of
clients in the property industry. This includes working for the following firms:
a. JHD Advisors: November 1993 – December 2002.
b. Dimasi Strategic Research/Pitney Bowes MapInfo: April 2003 – December 2008.
c. Location IQ: January 2009 – Present.
1.4 I regularly appear as an independent expert in State Planning courts and tribunals in relation to matters
such as Economic Impact Assessments, retail and commercial market definitions, industry trends, market
shares, consumer behaviour, retail and commercial sustainability and the implications of all of the above.
1.5 Attached as Appendix 1 is my detailed curriculum vitae.
Instructions
1.6 I have prepared this report based on instructions from Maddocks who represent Cardinia Shire Council,
specifically to address the following:
a. Review the proposal, including the Economic Impact Assessment prepared by Dimasi & Co on
behalf of Kaufland.
b. Review the Council submission dated 7 November 2019 and provide an opinion on the matters
raised in the submission, as relevant to my expertise.
c. Consider the proposal and the relevant economic matters, including whether the proposal is
appropriate having regard to:
Individual Statement of Evidence of Gavin Duane
Advisory Committee to Kaufland Stores in Victoria Pakenham, Melbourne 2
6 December 2019
i. the regulatory and planning framework applicable to the proposal, as relevant to my
expertise; and
ii. the location of the Land, including its location relative to existing and planned activity
centres.
d. Provide comment on any other matter which I consider relevant having regard to my expertise,
including the evidence circulated by Kaufland on 2 December 2019.
1.7 In preparing this Statement of Evidence, I have not received any instructions to accept, adopt or reject
any particular opinion.
1.8 I have reviewed the following documents in order to prepare this Statement of Evidence:
• The Cardinia Road Precinct Structure Plan dated September 2008.
• The Officer Precinct Structure Plan – Amendment C149 to the ‘Cardinia Plan Scheme’ dated
September 2011.
• The Kaufland Australia Proposed Store Pakenham, Melbourne - Economic Impact Assessment
prepared by Dimasi & Co in September 2019.
• Cardinia Shire Council’s submission to the Advisory Committee dated 7 November 2019.
• Kaufland stores in Victoria Advisory Committee Tranche 3 – Pakenham Proposal, Statement of
Evidence of Anthony Dimasi dated 28 November 2019.
• Kaufland Pakenham, Kaufland Tranche 3 Ministerial Advisory Committee, Statement of Sean
Andrew Stephens dated November 2019.
1.9 I have made all of the enquiries that I believe are desirable and appropriate and no matters of significance
which I regard as relevant have to my knowledge been withheld.
Signed:
Gavin Duane
6th December 2019
Individual Statement of Evidence of Gavin Duane
Advisory Committee to Kaufland Stores in Victoria Pakenham, Melbourne 3
6 December 2019
2 PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT
2.1 Kaufland Australia propose the development of a Kaufland store and shops at a site at Lot 1, on
BS640388Y, Princes Highway in Pakenham, Victoria.
2.2 Map 2.1 illustrates the proposed site and surrounding uses with key points to note including:
• The site adjoins the Pakenham Lifestyle Centre to the east which contains a range of large
format tenants such as Bunnings, Beacon Lighting, The Good Guys, JB Hi-Fi and the like.
• An approved childcare and medical centre on the corner of the Princes Highway and Thewlis
Road.
• Approximately 500 metres to the east along Lakeside Boulevard is an activity centre including
Coles and Aldi supermarkets together with a Dan Murphy’s liquor store and a range of specialty
shops.
• The Pakenham Police Station and other emergency services are located on the opposite side
of the Princes Highway.
2.3 The site therefore, forms part of a prominent retail, community and commercial hub along the Princes
Highway in Pakenham.
2.4 Figure 2.1 illustrates the proposed development plan inclusive of a 5,600 sq.m Kaufland supermarket
with liquor, together with 470 sq.m of specialty tenancies.
2.5 In total, some 415 car parking spaces would be provided at a rate of almost 6.84 car spaces per 100 sq.m
of GLA. In comparison, most retail centres in Australia provide 4 – 5 spaces per 100 sq.m of GLA. The
large car parking provision is potentially indicative of a higher than typical sales volume expected for the
Kaufland store.
Individual Statement of Evidence of Gavin Duane
Advisory Committee to Kaufland Stores in Victoria Pakenham, Melbourne 4
6 December 2019
MAP 2.1. LOCAL CONTEXT
Individual Statement of Evidence of Gavin Duane
Advisory Committee to Kaufland Stores in Victoria Pakenham, Melbourne 5
6 December 2019
FIGURE 2.1. PROPOSED PLAN
Individual Statement of Evidence of Gavin Duane
Advisory Committee to Kaufland Stores in Victoria Pakenham, Melbourne 6
6 December 2019
3 CENTRES PLANNING
3.1 This section of the report reviews the designated hierarchy of centres throughout Cardinia Shire based
on the various planning schemes and precinct structure plans. It is not meant to be a detailed assessment
of the planning documents but how the hierarchy of centres has been established in the context of the
likely economic impact from the proposed Kaufland store.
3.2 Map 3.1 illustrates the hierarchy of centres within Cardinia Shire, noting the following:
• There are two Major Activity Centres including the existing Pakenham Town Centre and the
proposed Officer Town Centre. Major Activity Centres are places that provide a suburban focal
point for services, employment, housing, public transport and social interaction. They have
different attributes and provide different functions, with some serving larger sub-regional
catchments.
• There are a range of Neighbourhood Activity Centres (NAC) including:
i. Large NAC’s at Lakeside Square and Village Lakeside.
ii. Other NAC’s at Arena Shopping Centre, Heritage Springs and Cardinia Lakes.
• There are three future NAC’s at the Pakenham South employment area, along Whiteside Road
at Beaconsfield and in the planned future development area of Pakenham East.
3.3 Neighbourhood Activity Centres are described as local centres that provide access to local goods,
services and employment opportunities and serve the needs of the surrounding community. These
centres serve smaller, local areas and have an important role in giving people the ability to meet most of
their everyday needs within a 20 minute walk, cycle or local public transport trip of their home.
3.4 On page 25 of the Economic Impact Assessment prepared by Dimasi & Co for Pakenham, the following
is noted:
‘Kaufland stores are larger footprint stores designed to serve relatively extensive trade areas, and
as a consequence fewer Kaufland stores are expected to be delivered, relative to population, than
either Coles or Woolworths stores’.
Individual Statement of Evidence of Gavin Duane
Advisory Committee to Kaufland Stores in Victoria Pakenham, Melbourne 7
6 December 20193.5 The catchment area for Kaufland stores, therefore, would be comparable to that served at a sub-regional
level as designated by Major Activity Centres, as compared with smaller local catchments identified to be
served by Neighbourhood Activity Centres. The proposed provision of car parking at a rate of 6.84 spaces
per 100 sq.m would reinforce car based travel being of importance to Kaufland stores rather than walkable
catchments.
3.6 The proposed Kaufland site at Pakenham is in an area designated for peripheral commercial facilities, in
and around the Village Lakeside Neighbourhood Activity Centre. Peripheral commercial is distinct from
‘Core Business’ in activity centres as detailed in the various planning documents.
3.7 Core retail as would generally be accepted in the retail industry, comprises major tenants which anchor
regional, sub-regional and supermarket developments, including high intensity uses such as department
stores, discount department stores and full-line supermarkets. These types of facilities serve the weekly
major food and grocery needs of surrounding residents, as well as their less frequent generally fortnightly
or monthly non-food shopping trips. These core retail facilities are complimented by a range of mini-major
and specialty categories which generally feed off the customer flows generated by these major core
retailers.
3.8 The Dimasi & Co Report clearly indicates that Kaufland would be a large footprint, full-line supermarket
(page 1 of the Executive Summary). Consequently, it would be a core retail facility and, therefore, as
indicated in the planning documents, should locate in one of the designated activity centres.
3.9 Peripheral retailing typically comprises large format/bulky goods retail stores associated with homemaker
style precincts. This is evidenced by the facilities located at the Pakenham Lifestyle Centre, adjoining the
proposed Kaufland site.
3.10 The importance of centre hierarchy and planning from an economic perspective is reflective of a number
of factors including:
• The ability for multi-purpose trips when visiting a shopping centre, reducing travel times and car
congestion.
• The planning and provision of infrastructure such as public transport facilities, for example the
railway station at Officer Town Centre.
• Certainty of investment for the ongoing development and investment in existing and proposed
centres.
Individual Statement of Evidence of Gavin Duane
Advisory Committee to Kaufland Stores in Victoria Pakenham, Melbourne 8
6 December 20193.11 I note at Paragraph 2.8 of Mr Anthony Dimasi’s Statement of 28 November 2019 that he states that it is
not reasonable that Kaufland should also have regard to another retail development proposal at another
location. The proposal, Pioneer Market Place is planned to include Kmart, enlarged Coles and cinemas.
From an economic perspective it is similar to Kaufland, comprising core retailers on non-core designated
land, and it is reasonable that Council has to consider the implications of Kaufland being approved and
the potential for other core retail facilities to locate outside of ‘Core Business’ areas.
Individual Statement of Evidence of Gavin Duane
Advisory Committee to Kaufland Stores in Victoria Pakenham, Melbourne 9
6 December 2019MAP 3.1. CARDINIA SHIRE HIERARCHY OF CENTRES
Individual Statement of Evidence of Gavin Duane
Advisory Committee to Kaufland Stores in Victoria Pakenham, Melbourne 10
6 December 20194 TRADE AREA ANALYSIS
Trade Area Definition
4.1 Map 4.1 replicates the trade area defined by Dimasi & Co for the Pakenham Kaufland store based on
Statistical Area 1 (SA1’s) which make up the trade area.
4.2 I agree this is an appropriate region which would be served by Kaufland at Pakenham taking into account
other proposed Kaufland stores at Narre Warren and Cranbourne.
4.3 The extent of the catchment is larger than that served by typical full-line supermarkets in metropolitan
Australia (2 - 3 km) and would effectively be described as a sub-regional catchment as served by a Major
Activity Centre, and more in line with that served by discount department stores.
Trade Area Population
4.4 Table 4.1 presents existing and projected population levels within the defined catchment over the period
to 2036. These populations projections are based on:
• The ABS Census of Population and Housing from 2011 – 2016.
• Recent ABS new dwelling approvals data throughout the catchment (refer Chart 4.1).
• Population projections produced by ID Consulting for Cardinia Shire Council.
• Investigations by this office in relation to residential estates throughout the defined catchment.
4.5 Overall, the trade area population projected to increase from 58,470 persons in 2016 to 136,670 persons
by 2036. The average annual growth rate is projected at 4.3%, well above the comparable Melbourne
average of 1.7%.
4.6 The rapid growth within the catchment, will support additional retail facilities as planned at a number of
centres such as the Officer Town Centre, Cardina South NAC and Beaconsfield Whitehorse Road NAC.
4.7 Chart 4.2 compares population projections prepared by Location IQ with those detailed at Table 2.3 of
the Dimasi & Co Report. Table 4.2 of Mr Sean Stephens Statement and Planning Victoria Forecasts.
Individual Statement of Evidence of Gavin Duane
Advisory Committee to Kaufland Stores in Victoria Pakenham, Melbourne 11
6 December 2019MAP 4.1. KAUFLAND PAKENHAM TRADE AREA
Individual Statement of Evidence of Gavin Duane
Advisory Committee to Kaufland Stores in Victoria Pakenham, Melbourne 12
6 December 2019TABLE 4.1. KAUFLAND PAKENHAM TRADE AREA POPULATION, 2011 - 2036
Actual Forecast
Population 2011 2016 2019 2021 2026 2031 2036
Main Trade Area 40,000 58,470 71,670 81,670 106,670 124,170 136,670
Actual Forecast
Average Annual Change (No.) 2011-16 2016-19 2019-21 2021-26 2026-31 2031-36
Main Trade Area 3,694 4,400 5,000 5,000 3,500 2,500
Actual Forecast
Average Annual Change (%) 2011-16 2016-19 2019-21 2021-26 2026-31 2031-36
Main Trade Area 7.9% 7.0% 6.7% 5.5% 3.1% 1.9%
Melb Metro 2.3% 2.4% 2.4% 1.9% 1.7% 1.5%
Australian Average 1.7% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.3% 1.2%
All figures as at June and based on 2016 SA1 boundary definition.
Sources : ABS; Forecast id, SaFi by id
CHART 4.1. KAUFLAND PAKENHAM NEW DWELLING APPROVALS, 2011/12 – 2018/19
2,000
Other Dwellings 1,787
1,800 1,710
New Houses
1,566
1,600 1,504
1,400
1,180
1,200 1,080
1,000 904
800 720
600
400
200
0
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19
Source: ABS
Individual Statement of Evidence of Gavin Duane
Advisory Committee to Kaufland Stores in Victoria Pakenham, Melbourne 13
6 December 2019CHART 4.2. KAUFLAND PAKENHAM COMPARISON OF POPULATION GROWTH 2016 -
2031
Competitive Environments
4.8 Table 4.2 summarises the competitive environment in which the proposed Kaufland store would operate.
In terms of existing facilities, the major competitive developments which encompass supermarkets are
as described below.
4.9 The Pakenham Major Activity Centre comprising over 50,000 sq.m of floorspace. The largest centres
within this precinct include:
- Pakenham Central Marketplace of 16,700 sq.m is anchored by a Big W discount department store
and a Woolworths supermarket.
- Pakenham Place Shopping Centre anchored by a Target discount department store and a Coles
supermarket.
- The remainder of the retail strip comprising a range of retail facilities.
4.10 It is relevant to note that in the past three years there has been the closure of two supermarkets within
the Pakenham Town Centre including:
• Ritchie’s IGA in August 2016.
• The free-standing Woolworths supermarket along Drake Place in January 2019. This store is
currently still vacant.
4.11 A range of neighbourhood activity centres including:
Individual Statement of Evidence of Gavin Duane
Advisory Committee to Kaufland Stores in Victoria Pakenham, Melbourne 14
6 December 2019• Village Lakeside comprising Coles and Aldi supermarkets in close proximity to the Kaufland
site.
• Heritage Springs Shopping Centre (6,500 sq.m) anchored by a Coles.
• The Arena Neighbourhood Activity Centre of 8,600 sq.m anchored by a Woolworths.
• The Lakeside Square development of 6,300 sq.m anchored by a Woolworths.
• Cardinia Lakes Shopping Centre in the eastern portion of the trade area, at 5,000 sq.m,
anchored by a Coles.
4.12 Table 4.3 details the provision of supermarket floorspace throughout the defined catchment as at June
2019 compared with the relevant Melbourne metropolitan benchmark. This indicates the provision of 352
sq.m per 1,000 residents higher than the comparable Melbourne average.
TABLE 4.2. EXISTING COMPETITION
Shopfront Dist. From
Centre GLA Anchor Tenants Site
(sq.m) (km)
Major Activity Centre
Pakenham Town Centre 51,400 4.0
• Pakenham Place SC 15,900 Target (5,400), Coles (3,000)
• Pakenham Central Marketplace 16,900 Big W (6,500), Woolworths (4,200)
• Other 18,600
Neighbouorhood Activity Centre
Village Lakeside East 5,400 Coles (2,500), Aldi (1,430) 0.8
Arena SC 8,600 Woolworths (3,800) 1.5
Lakeside Square 6,300 Woolworths (3,500) 2.8
FoodWorks Pakenham Plaza 1,000 FoodWorks (300) 4.1
Heritage Springs 6,500 Coles (3,200) 4.5
Cardinia Lakes SC 5,000 Coles (3,350) 5.9
Source: Australian Shopping Centre Council Database
Individual Statement of Evidence of Gavin Duane
Advisory Committee to Kaufland Stores in Victoria Pakenham, Melbourne 15
6 December 2019TABLE 4.3. TRADE AREA SUPERMARKET PROVISION, 2019
No. of GLA 2019 GLA per
Trade Area Supermarkets* (sq.m) Population 1,000 persons
Main Trade Area 8 24,986 71,070 352
Melbourne Metro Average 296
* Defined as 500 sq.m or larger
Future Proposals
4.13 In terms of future retail facilities, there are a number of proposals (Table 4.4) including:
• The largest precinct being the Officer Town Centre. The Cardinia Planning Scheme outlines the
land within the Town Centre and the Core precinct are illustrated on Figure 4.1. The core
precinct includes over 10 hectares of land which theoretically, at a conservative ratio of one
third of floorspace to total land area (assuming at-grade development only), could include over
30,000 sq.m of retail floorspace.
Map 4.2 highlights ownership of land within the Officer Town Centre showing that Development
Victoria controls a substantial proportion of the land together with Coles and Cardinia Council
within the core precinct.
• Whiteside Road Neighbourhood Activity Centre is proposed at around 5,000 sq.m with
Woolworths indicated as the anchor tenant.
• The Pakenham South Cardinia Employment Precinct Structure Plan (Kaduna Park) is indicated
to comprise a 5,000 sq.m neighbourhood centre.
• A 9,000 sq.m neighbourhood centre at the future Pakenham East release area.
• In the Pakenham Town centre, there is an Aldi supermarket approved.
• Pioneers Market Place is a proposed Kmart, Coles and cinema development located at 900
Princes Highway, opposite Bunnings and near the existing Coles supermarket along Lakeside
Drive. Cardinia Shire Council have refused the development application and is now the subject
of a VCAT hearing.
Summary
4.14 In summary, the key information in the review of the trade area indicates:
• The trade area defined by Dimasi & Co is the relevant region to study.
Individual Statement of Evidence of Gavin Duane
Advisory Committee to Kaufland Stores in Victoria Pakenham, Melbourne 16
6 December 2019• Population growth is substantial but lower than indicated by Dimasi & Co.
• There are a range of sites designated for core retail facilities such as supermarkets including,
in particular, the Officer Town Centre as well as the former Woolworths supermarket box which
is now vacant within the Pakenham Town Centre.
TABLE 4.4. PROPOSED RETAIL FACILITIES
Additional Distance
Retail GLA from Site
Name (sq.m) Components Status (km)
Within Main Trade Area
Pioneer Market Place 18,534 Kmart (6,391 sq.m), Coles (4,112 sq.m), Cinema & shops DA Refused 0.7
77 Henry St Pakenham 1,700 Aldi DA Approved 4.3
Officer TC 50,000 4.5
• Coles Owned Site 5,000* Coles & shops Mooted
• Mixed Use Devt 1,314 Smkt (300 sq.m) & 11 shops DA Approved
• Ultimately n.a. DDS, Smkt & shops Planning
Whiteside Road NAC 5,000* Woolworths & shops Planning 6.6
Kaduna South 5,000* Smkt & shops Planning 7.6
Pakenham East NAC 9,100 Smkt & shops Planning 8.0
Source: Location IQ Database
* Estimated
Individual Statement of Evidence of Gavin Duane
Advisory Committee to Kaufland Stores in Victoria Pakenham, Melbourne 17
6 December 2019FIGURE 4.1. OFFICER TOWN CENTRE ZONING
Individual Statement of Evidence of Gavin Duane
Advisory Committee to Kaufland Stores in Victoria Pakenham, Melbourne 18
6 December 2019MAP 4.2. OFFICER TOWN CENTRE LAND OWNERS
Individual Statement of Evidence of Gavin Duane
Advisory Committee to Kaufland Stores in Victoria Pakenham, Melbourne 19
6 December 20195 PROJECTED SALES AND IMPACTS
Projected Kaufland Sales
5.1 On page 28 of the Dimasi & Co Report, it is indicated that new Kaufland stores in major metropolitan
areas would achieve sales of around $40 - $50 million. For a 5,600 sq.m store as proposed at Pakenham,
this represents sales of $8,000 – $9,000 per sq.m. This is well below the sales level achieved by other
major national supermarket brands in Australia such as Woolworths, Coles and Aldi, outlined in Table 1.1
of the Dimasi & Co Report at around $11,700 – $12,600 per sq.m.
5.2 If Kaufland was to deliver on the benefits outlined in the Executive Summary of the Dimasi & Co Report
including:
• Newer approach to fresh food departments
• A new tier of private labels
• Significant downward of pressure on grocery prices
It is my view that Kaufland would achieve sales of at least $50 million and potentially up to and above
$60 million in metropolitan locations. At that level, sales would be to $9,000 – $10,000 per sq.m, still a
lower productively rate than the existing supermarket chains in Australia, primarily reflecting some of the
floorspace in the stores dedicated to non-food items. Sales of $40 - $50 million, however, would appear
to understate the projected sales, and therefore, the likely impacts on competitive retailers.
Impact Analysis
5.3 Table 2.7 of the Dimasi & Co Report outlines estimated impacts on competitive facilities in the surrounding
area. There are a number of issues with this analysis which likely understate the impacts on existing
facilities including:
• Growth in sales for each of the existing centres it is indicated at 8% annually between 2019 –
2022. Not all centres would grow at the same rate, with some centres better positioned to
population growth than others (Refer Map 5.1). Consequently, applying annual 8% sales growth
to every retail facility is not an accurate reflection of future sales.
• Dimasi & Co assume projected sales of $47.5 million for Kaufland, when in reality as indicated
above, sales would be likely 10% or more higher. Further, the Dimasi & Co Report does not
Individual Statement of Evidence of Gavin Duane
Advisory Committee to Kaufland Stores in Victoria Pakenham, Melbourne 20
6 December 2019allocate any sales to the 470 sq.m of specialty shops proposed at the site. Assuming a sales
rate of $7,000 per sq.m, would result in a further $3.3 million in specialty sales. The under
estimation of sales means impacts of competitive centres would be at least 10% greater.
• Of the total $47.5 million in sales estimated by Dimasi & Co, some $33.5 million is from listed
centres in Table 2.7, with $14 million (or the balance) being on other centres not identified in
Table 2.7 of the Dimasi & Co Report. It is difficult to imagine a substantial number of other
centres being impacted by the proposal, given there are no other supermarkets in the
catchment. This means that Kaufland would have to impact facilities beyond the trade area,
noting that to the west, there are a range of other Kaufland stores proposed, meaning the
subject store would not attract business from these areas. Consequently, Dimasi & Co
underestimate the impact on centres listed in Table 2.7.
5.4 All the above factors result in an underestimation of impacts in the order of 50%, meaning that impacts
on some of the closer located centres such as Village Lakeside and Arena Shopping Centre are likely to
be 10% or higher (possibly above 15%) rather than in the order of 5% - 10% as indicated by Dimasi &
Co.
Cumulative Impacts
5.5 The Dimasi & Co Report also does not assume any other retail developments will occur within the
catchment. As indicated, however, there are a number of proposals throughout the catchment.
Cumulative impacts need to be considered as a result of the Kaufland development, not just from the
Kaufland development itself.
5.6 This may result in centres such as Lakeside Square, which is already achieving very low sales levels at
less than $6,000 per sq.m based on the Dimasi & Co estimates, to potentially be unviable from cumulative
impacts.
5.7 I note at Paragraph 4.62 of Mr Sean Stephens Statement he indicates the trading impacts on the
Woolworths supermarket at Lakeside Square would likely be in the order of 8% - 10%. Although I believe
this figure would be higher, it shows that this is one of the centres which will experience a higher than
average trading impact. This is of concern given its current low trading levels.
Individual Statement of Evidence of Gavin Duane
Advisory Committee to Kaufland Stores in Victoria Pakenham, Melbourne 21
6 December 2019MAP 5.1. MAIN TRADE AREA BROADHECTARE LAND
Individual Statement of Evidence of Gavin Duane
Advisory Committee to Kaufland Stores in Victoria Pakenham, Melbourne 22
6 December 20196 ALTERNATIVE SITES
6.1 Cardinia Shire is a rapidly growing area on the outer eastern edge of the Melbourne metropolitan area.
Significant further population growth will occur within the area and there are a range of planned activity
centres.
6.2 The urban context of Pakenham is very different to other locations where Kaufland stores are being
proposed in more established urban areas. Potential sites for Kaufland are more limited in these
established areas.
6.3 The Officer Town Centre has substantial land holdings available to accommodate core retail facilities
such as supermarkets, including Kaufland. The Town Centre is located 3 km west of the subject site and
is well positioned to capture population growth, being adjacent to the Princes Highway which provides
significant exposure for future tenants.
6.4 The core precinct of the Officer Town Centre could include at least 30,000 sq.m of floorspace across 10
hectares, with Coles indicated as a future major tenant. At this stage, no other major tenants are identified
for Officer. Potential other tenants would include:
• A Kmart discount department store, with Target and Big W represented the Pakenham Town
Centre. Kmart, however, is proposed at Pioneer Market Place.
• No department store would locate at Pakenham.
• Woolworths who control land at Whiteside Road and would potentially locate at this site prior to
Officer.
6.5 I note at Paragraph 3.11 of Mr Stephens Statement that Kaufland have a minimum site requirement for
1.7 hectares. Quite clearly, a Kaufland store can be accommodated in the Officer Town Centre Core
Precinct. The conclusions reached by Mr Stephens, therefore, at Paragraph 3.12 of his report that
Kaufland have difficulty finding appropriate and available locations in core retail areas of an activity centre
is not true in the Cardinia Shire.
6.6 Consequently, there is a real issue of Officer Town Centre not developing to its designated potential if
tenants such as Kaufland and Kmart and other facilities such as cinemas are able to locate elsewhere
within the municipality, when appropriately they should and are able to locate in core business zoned
areas.
Individual Statement of Evidence of Gavin Duane
Advisory Committee to Kaufland Stores in Victoria Pakenham, Melbourne 23
6 December 20196.7 Also, the former Woolworths box in the Pakenham Town Centre is vacant and is part of a building totalling
more than 5,000 sq.m (Refer Map 6.1).
Individual Statement of Evidence of Gavin Duane
Advisory Committee to Kaufland Stores in Victoria Pakenham, Melbourne 24
6 December 2019MAP 6.1. PAKENHAM TOWN CENTRE FORMER WOOLWORTHS BOX
Individual Statement of Evidence of Gavin Duane
Advisory Committee to Kaufland Stores in Victoria Pakenham, Melbourne 25
6 December 20197 CONCLUSIONS
7.1 The key conclusions of the analysis of Kaufland at Pakenham are as follows:
• Kaufland is a supermarket which would be considered as core retail.
• Core retail facilities are encouraged to locate within activity centres.
• There are a number of planned and existing activity centres which could incorporate a Kaufland
store, in particular, Officer Town Centre and the vacant Woolworths box in the Pakenham Town
Centre.
• If Kaufland was to locate outside the core activity centres, cumulative impacts of Kaufland and
other planned facilities have the potential to impact on centres, with Lakeside Shopping Centre
the most vulnerable centre.
• In addition, the ability for a centre such as Officer Town Centre to fulfil its role in the hierarchy
as a Major Activity Centre would be impacted if tenants such as Kaufland and Kmart are
approved along the Princes Highway rather than locate at Officer Town Centre.
• The Planning Scheme adequately caters for tenants such as Kaufland to locate in centre
business zoned areas and designated sites.
Individual Statement of Evidence of Gavin Duane
Advisory Committee to Kaufland Stores in Victoria Pakenham, Melbourne 26
6 December 2019DECLARATION
I, Gavin Duane, confirm that:
• the factual matters stated in this statement of evidence are, as far as I know, true;
• I have made all enquiries considered appropriate;
• the opinions stated in this statement of evidence are genuinely held by me;
• the statement of evidence contains reference to all matters that I consider significant;
• I understand the expert’s duty to the court and have complied with the duty; and
• I have not received or accepted instructions to adopt or reject a particular opinion in relation to any issue
in dispute in the proceeding.
My Curriculum Vitae, detailing my qualifications and experience, is included as Appendix 1 to my report.
Signed:
Gavin Duane
6 December 2019
Individual Statement of Evidence of Gavin Duane
Advisory Committee to Kaufland Stores in Victoria Pakenham, Melbourne 27
6 December 2019APPENDIX 1
Gavin Duane Curriculum Vitae
Gavin studied at the University of Melbourne between 1988 and 1991, graduating with a Bachelor of Economics
(Honours). After a year at Melbourne Water as a graduate economist, Gavin commenced work in the field of
retail and shopping centre analysis at JHD Advisors in November 1993.
Since 1993 Gavin has provided independent advice in the fields of market analysis and strategic research for a
wide range of clients in the retail and shopping centre industries. He founded Duane Location IQ in January
2009. Prior to that time Gavin joined Dimasi Strategic Research as an Associate Director in April 2003. Dimasi
Strategic Research was acquired by Pitney Bowes MapInfo in August 2005. Gavin held the role of Director of
Client Services for the Strategy & Analytics division until December 2008.
Gavin regularly appears as an independent expert in state planning courts and tribunals, on matters relating to
economic impact assessments, retail market definitions, industry trends, market shares, consumer behaviour
and their implications.
Individual Statement of Evidence of Gavin Duane
Advisory Committee to Kaufland Stores in Victoria Pakenham, Melbourne 28
6 December 201902 8248 0100 Individual Statement of Evidence of Gavin Duane Level 6, 56 Pitt Street 29 Advisory Committee to Kaufland Stores in Victoria Pakenham, Melbourne Sydney NSW 2000 6Locationiq.com.au December 2019
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