NATIONAL POLLING PROJECT - WINTER 2021 - TOPLINE RESULTS - Winter 2021 National Polling Project - Our Children MN
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NP
WINTER 2021
NATIONAL
POLLING
PROJECT
TOPLINE RESULTS
murmuration Winter 2021 National Polling Project 1NP INTRODUCTION Going forward, we’ll be including more questions
The National Polling Project is a key aspect of designed to help us build custom education
Murmuration’s efforts to refine our collective issue support models that we hope will eventually
understanding of education-related issues increase our partners’ targeting efficiency (which
around the country. We fielded our first national we discuss in greater detail below). Generating
poll in March 2019, and over the course of the right data is critical to building effective
the 2019-2020 campaign cycle, we fielded six models, and we want to make sure that the
additional polls to track long-term education and models we build reflect the needs of the network;
political trendlines, and provide our partners please reach out to your Partnership Success
with timely information in the lead up to the Manager or Murmuration point of contact to
2020 presidential election. Over the course of share your thoughts on the education issues you
nearly 18 months, we reached more than 12,000 want to use for segmenting and targeting voters.
voters, and produced the data necessary to To catch up on our learnings from last year, you
validate eight national issue support models and can read our 2019-2020 National Poll memos on
produce relevant longitudinal insights. These m{hq.
insights allow us to determine how public opinion
shifts over time, and generate more robust In our first National Poll of 2021, we contacted
knowledge of voter behavior than any singular nearly 1,600 people. While much of the data we
public opinion poll can provide. Our longitudinal collected in January 2021 will build upon data
insights have also equipped our partners with a from our 2019-2020 polls, and we provide some
nuanced understanding of how voters view critical longitudinal analysis, the majority of this memo
issues like school reopening plans, approval of will address new topics and insights based on our
local schools and schools boards, and similar. most recently collected data. The memo will help
you better understand public perception of the
Now that the 2020 election cycle has officially impact COVID-19 is having on children’s
closed, we’ll be making some minor alterations to education and the nuances of how voters view
our National Polling Project to ensure it remains the role of government in their communities and
additive to our partners’ work. We’ll continue to schools. It will also provide information about how
field a poll approximately every three months, and people prefer to consume news, which can inform
each poll will include some questions that remain your communication strategy related to education
consistent, allowing us to track how specific issues.
events may impact public opinion on certain
issues (e.g., public perception of how the
coronavirus pandemic is affecting children’s
education). We’ll also replace other questions that
may only be relevant at specific times of the year
(e.g., removing questions about reopening
schools now that the school year is in full swing).
But the biggest and most exciting changes to our
National Polling Project address our partners’
need to better identify the right people to talk to.
murmuration Winter 2021 National Polling Project 2NP The key takeaways of the Winter 2021 National Poll include:
Charters: Most voters don’t have an informed opinion about many policies related to charter
schools, and approximately half of voters believe that charter schools are private. Moreover, more
than half of voters don’t know whether charters better serve students of color or whether they
contribute to the segregation of students of color and low-income students.
COVID-19: Parent voters of school-aged children appear to be more aware of the impact the
coronavirus pandemic is having on their children’s education, and less satisfied with their children’s
education than they were earlier in the pandemic.
Vaccines: As district and school leaders look ahead to the start of the 2021-22 school year and
re-opening their doors this Fall, they’ll have to contend with voters who are generally split about
whether or not the COVID-19 vaccine should be mandatory for students in K-12 schools, once it’s
approved and recommended for children.
Government Confidence: Many voters don’t have confidence in the federal government to handle
the challenges facing the country, and most believe the country is headed in the wrong direction.
However, voters have more confidence in their local governments and believe that their specific
communities are on the right track.
Media: More than any other media source, voters report that TV is their preferred method of
consuming news, followed by internet news sites. Very few voters report using social media to find
news. Since voters’ media habits may play a role in how they consume political information, we’ll be
exploring this further in our future research endeavors.
These findings offer important context to
education advocates, organizers, and those
supporting campaigns to elect education-
focused leaders into positions of power. In the
aftermath of 2020, a year that included the rapid
spread of a global pandemic, a record downturn
of the US economy, divisive political rhetoric, and
a national student learning crisis, we are happy
to have new data to guide how our partners plan
their strategy and engage with voters.
murmuration Winter 2021 National Polling Project 3NP VOTERS REMAIN UNINFORMED ABOUT CHARTERS; THINK THEY’RE PRIVATE SCHOOLS
Many voters are knowingly uninformed about charters, creating an opportunity for advocates.
WHAT WE’RE THINKING ABOUT:
Most voters believe that charters are private schools; in what ways does this contribute to a
sentiment that charter schools hurt the public school system? Which specific charter school policies/
characteristics have the potential to make voters view charters more favorably? Is it critical for voters
to understand the nuances of how charter schools operate (and their relationship to traditional public
schools) in order to change their opinion about charters?
DISCUSSION QUESTIONS FOR PARTNERS:
• Do
the charter parents in your community know their children attend charter schools, and that
those schools are public?
• What
can informed parents and community members do to help spread knowledge and
awareness about charter schools?
• What kind of messaging are you using when connecting with voters?
• Is having voters educated about charter schools important to your campaign goals?
One of the most reliable trends we’ve seen since In addition to these two basic questions, we
our first National Poll in March 2019 is that voters added questions related to specific charter
are uninformed about charter schools. During school policies, such as the level of oversight
our 2019-2020 polling, we uncovered this by charters should be subject to, how they serve
asking about whether respondents thought students of color, how they’re funded, and similar.
charter schools were public or private and by We introduced these questions primarily for the
asking if respondents thought charters helped purpose of informing the custom education-
or hurt the public school system. In 2021, we specific issue models our Data Science Team is in
continued to ask both questions, but also added the process of building, though there are some
questions to generate a more nuanced view of interesting early takeaways. Most importantly, no
voter understanding and support for different matter which charter policy we asked about, a
aspects of charter school policies. large proportion of voters reported not knowing
enough to have an opinion. For example,
Consistent with the polls we’ve run in the past, when we asked respondents if they agreed or
approximately half of voters report thinking that disagreed with the notion that charter schools are
charter schools are private. Also consistent with more likely to serve the needs of Black and Latinx
our previous polls, we see that voters are nearly students compared to traditional public schools,
evenly split into three groups when asked about more than half didn’t know enough to have an
the relationship between charters and the public opinion. We also asked whether respondents
school system as a whole: approximately one- agreed or disagreed with the idea that charter
third of voters think they help, one-third think schools contribute to segregation of students of
they hurt, and one-third don’t know. color and and low-income students, and again
murmuration Winter 2021 National Polling Project 4NP approximately half reported not knowing enough who don’t know about charter schools, policies,
to have an opinion. (For each of these questions, and the potential benefits they bring to some
those who did have an opinion were generally communities. Providing the right information
split between agreeing and disagreeing, with no about charter schools to voters may serve a
clear trend one way or the other.) dual purpose: reshaping voter perception of the
relationship between charter schools and the
Since this is the first time we’ve asked such public school system, and generating support for
nuanced questions, it will take time to generate charter school policies that can improve student
the data necessary to form more meaningful learning outcomes.
insights, and more importantly, to build custom
models that can be used to predict support Targeting the right people for outreach in any
for related issues and identify voters. As such, campaign is only part of the equation. Equally
these custom models are a long way from being important for a successful campaign is delivering
finished, tested, and released to partners, and we a compelling message that will resonate with
even may need to revisit which charter-related voters and community members. To complement
questions we ask in the future to support our the custom education models we’re building to
model-building ambitions. Still, we hope these help our partners more effectively target the
questions will help us eventually shed light on right voters for charter-focused outreach, we’re
which voters would make the best targets for also incorporating charter school messaging
generating support for charter school policies. into the Message Collaborative. By working
across our network to develop, test, and refine
Voters’ perceptions of charter schools create charter school message strategies, we can better
both challenges and opportunities for charter position partners to educate uninformed voters
advocates. While it may be difficult to change about charter schools and ensure the messaging
the opinion of voters who think charter schools builds support and effectively communicates the
are private, there continues to be an opportunity most important information.
to educate the large swaths of the population SATISFACTION WITH SCHOOLS AND THE
CHARTER SCHOOL RELATED QUESTIONS
QUESTION: I will now read some statements about charter schools. Please tell me whether
you agree or disagree with each statement, or if you don’t know enough to have an opinion.
Charter schools use disciplinary techniques
79%
that I think are too harsh.
Charter schools are more likely to serve
the needs of Black and Hispanic students 56%
than traditional public schools.
Charter schools contribute to the segregation
of students of color and low-income students. 51%
Charter schools take funding away from
traditional public schools. 41%
Children that attend charter schools get a better
education than those who attend traditional public schools. 42%
0 DON’T KNOW ENOUGH TO HAVE AN OPINION 100%
murmuration Winter 2021 National Polling Project 5NP IMPACT OF CORONAVIRUS ON EDUCATION
More parents than ever acknowledge the coronavirus pandemic will impact their children’s
education “a lot,” while parent satisfaction with schools is the lowest it’s ever been.
WHAT WE’RE THINKING ABOUT:
Why did it take parents so long to become aware of this reality, considering experts have been
warning of learning loss for months? To what degree (if any) do parents believe these impacts on
learning loss will directly impact their children’s ability to thrive relative to their peers and other
students competing for the same colleges and other educational opportunities? Who do parents
blame for these issues? What regional differences might impact parent perception in different
parts of the country?
DISCUSSION QUESTIONS FOR PARTNERS:
• What
role do parent networks and community leaders have in helping their community
understand the educational impact of the pandemic?
• What policies can education advocates push for to mitigate ongoing learning loss?
• What
role will COVID-19 and the subsequent learning loss play in this year’s elections? Will it
remain a factor in the 2022 elections?
• How
can your campaigns establish credibility and leverage their platform to raise awareness
about the impact of the pandemic on learning?
The challenges that schools have faced over the In addition to the increasing awareness of how
last several months, and the impact of remote student learning is being impacted by the
or hybrid learning models, seem to have finally coronavirus pandemic, we’re seeing a greater
registered with a majority of parents. In this most proportion of parents report lower levels of
recent round of polling, 60% of parents report satisfaction with their children’s schools. School
that they expect the disruptions caused by the satisfaction largely remained consistent before
coronavirus pandemic to impact the quality of the coronavirus pandemic shut down schools
their children’s education “a lot.” That marks a in the Spring of last year. Throughout 2019,
significant increase from last September, when parents of school-aged children reported being
only 46% of parents felt the same way, and an “very satisfied” at a rate of 44% in March, 44% in
even more drastic change from when we first June, and 49% in September. In our Winter 2021
asked the question in May 2020 (at which point poll, after schools had months to adjust their
most schools around the country were closed), education model in response to the coronavirus
when only 23% of parents believed the pandemic pandemic, only 28% of parent voters with
would impact the quality of their children’s school-aged children report those high levels of
education “a lot.” This trend makes sense, and satisfaction — representing a drop of nearly 20
we’d expect that as more time passes before percentage points.
more schools are able to completely return to
full-time, in-person learning, we’d see more These sentiments are shared across nearly every
parents confront the reality that the coronavirus subgroup of the population, and are two of the
pandemic has impacted the quality of their few things that Democrats and Republicans
children’s education. agree on. With such broad alignment among
murmuration Winter 2021 National Polling Project 6NP different subgroups of voters, we will continue
to investigate how our partners can most
effectively communicate how their work
addresses and mitigates the educational impact
of the coronavirus pandemic on their local
communities. In the current climate, there’s
a greater importance, and opportunity, for
organizations to build inroads with families who
are dissatisfied with their children’s education,
and our partners should consider how these
trends apply to their communities.
murmuration Winter 2021 National Polling Project 7NP COVID-19 VACCINE AND SCHOOLS
Party affiliation and educational attainment likely to shape whether voters think the COVID-19
vaccine should be mandatory for students, once it’s approved and recommended for children.
WHAT WE’RE THINKING ABOUT:
Would messaging that connects the importance of the COVID-19 vaccine to enable schools to
reopen safely increase the rates of voter support for taking the vaccine? Is there a way to engage with
people on this issue without alienating a significant portion of voters who are apprehensive about the
vaccine? Is there a relationship between the lack of confidence in government (detailed in the next
section) and the willingness to take a COVID-19 vaccine, or believe it should be mandatory for students
in public schools?
DISCUSSION QUESTIONS FOR PARTNERS:
• Which
leaders in your community can help to message the importance of vaccines in the fight
against COVID-19?
• Depending
on your community’s education leaders, could this be an opportunity to mobilize
parents to take action?
• How should your campaign position itself in the conversation about vaccines?
• How can you tailor your message to different audiences without being insincere?
• What kind of voters make up your base of support?
For the first time, we introduced questions While adult vaccination rates are an important
asking voters about their mask-wearing habits indicator of our progress towards a return
and opinions on the COVID-19 vaccine. There’s normalcy, we expect an even greater degree of
not much in the way of notable conclusions disagreement related child vaccination. Only 43%
on mask-wearing: a combined 90% of voters of voters think the COVID-19 vaccine, after being
report wearing a mask “every time” or “most of approved and recommended for children, should
the time” they leave the house and might be be mandatory for K-12 students who attend
in contact with others. The more interesting public schools. Conversely, 40% think the vaccine
(and relevant) data comes from our questions should not be mandatory. With such entrenched
about the COVID-19 vaccine, and whether or disagreement, and downright skepticism, around
not it should be mandatory for K-12 students to vaccination, voters seemed primed to make this a
attend public schools (after being approved contentious fight that will undoubtedly test school
and recommended for children). The high rate districts, local officials, and elected leaders at the
of mask-wearing unfortunately doesn’t extend state and federal level.
to a willingness to take the vaccine: 59% of
voters report they plan to take it, while 24% say There are a few demographic trends worth
they won’t and another 11% aren’t sure (leaving noting here. Overall, the even split between
5% who have already taken the vaccine). The those who agree and disagree with the notion
division among voters in their willingness to take that the COVID-19 vaccine should be mandatory
a COVID-19 vaccine has the potential to delay our for K-12 students in public schools extends
country’s ability to safely reopen schools. through many demographic groups, with a
murmuration Winter 2021 National Polling Project 8NP couple exceptions. For one, Democrats and
Republicans have opposing viewpoints on this
issue, with 61% of Democrats agreeing the
vaccine should be mandatory for students and
only 23% disagreeing. The opposite is true
for Republicans: only 20% think the vaccine
should be mandatory while 62% don’t think it
should be mandatory. Outside of partisanship,
educational attainment was the only other
distinguishing factor in people’s opinions, as
voters with a college degree had higher rates of
agreement on making the vaccine mandatory
than those without a college degree (53% and
36%, respectively). One final note: we also cut
this poll’s data based on whether respondents
thought the country was on the right track or
wrong track, and there was a notable difference
in response to this question on mandatory
vaccinations for children attending public
schools, once approved: among those who
say the country (at the national level) is on the
right track, 62% think the vaccine should be
mandatory for K-12 students to attend public
schools, while only 20% of that group does not
think it should be mandatory.
murmuration Winter 2021 National Polling Project 9NP GOVERNMENT CONFIDENCE AND THE DIRECTION OF THE COUNTRY
Voters generally believe things are going in the wrong direction nationally, but that their
communities are on the right track.
WHAT WE’RE THINKING ABOUT:
What aspects of local government contribute to voters viewing it more favorably than the federal
government? Can local elected officials build support among voters by contrasting themselves with
federal officials? Do lower rates of confidence in the federal government affect the government’s
ability to generate support for federal initiatives, such as vaccine distribution? Did the events of
January 6th change public opinion about the role of government and affect voter confidence in the
federal government?
DISCUSSION QUESTIONS FOR PARTNERS:
• H
ow can your organization continue to emphasize what’s working well in your community while
still pushing for improvements?
• D
oes connecting your local school and district to federal problems help raise the urgency for
action?
• How
does theConfidence
low confidencein Federal and
in government Local
impact Government
the value of campaign endorsements from
other local officials?
QUESTION: Generally, how much confidence do you have in the FEDERAL government
• Howchallenges
to handle can your campaign
facing capitalize on the support for government solutions like equitable
our country?
funding policies and making education a civil right?
A Great Deal 15%
Murmuration addressed voter perception of of voters reported having either a great deal of
A Fair Amount 33%
government for the first time in the Winter confidence (15%) or a fair amount of confidence
Not poll,
2021 Too Much 28%
by asking respondents whether they (33%) in the federal government, while only
had confidence
None At All in the federal government
20% 32% of respondents thought things were on
and their local government, and by asking the right track. Comparatively, 56% of those
Other Response 3%
whether respondents thought things were on surveyed reported that they thought the country
0 PERCENTAGE OF CONFIDENCE 100%
the right track or if they’re headed in the wrong is moving in the wrong direction, while 11% did
direction, both at the national level and in their not know. Meanwhile, things look better for local
communities. Overall, a majority of voters seem government and communities: approximately
to be cynical about the federal government two-thirds of voters reported having a great deal
and the direction of the country: less than half of confidence (15%) or a fair amount of confidence
CONFIDENCE IN FEDERAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT
QUESTION: Generally, how much confidence do you have in the FEDERAL or LOCAL government to
handle challenges facing our country?
FEDERAL 15% 33% 28% 20% 3%
PERCENTAGE OF CONFIDENCE
0 100%
LOCAL 15% 49% 22% 11% 3%
QUESTION: Generally, how much confidence do you have in the LOCAL government to handle
challenges facing our country?
murmuration Winter 2021 National Polling Project 10NP (49%) in their local government, while only 30% following the inauguration of President Biden.
reported thinking their community was going in
Confidence in Federal andHowever, Republicans generally show a great
Local Government
the wrong direction, compared to 58% who think deal more support for government at the local
QUESTION: Generally, how much confidence do you have in the FEDERAL government
things are on the right track (leaving 12% who level than the federal level, though they still lag
to handle challenges facing our country?
don’t know). behind their Democratic counterparts: 58% of
A Great Deal 15% Republicans report having either a “great deal” or
When examining the data on confidence in “fair amount” of confidence in local government
A Fair Amount 33%
government more closely, we see predictable compared to 70% for Democrats.
Not Tootrends:
partisan 28%
Much Democrats are almost four
timesNone
moreAtlikely
All than Republicans20%
to have The most important takeaway from these
confidence in the federal government (73% of questions is that voters tend to have more
Other Response 3%
Democrats have either a “great deal” or “fair confidence in local government than they do in
0 100%
amount” of confidence compared to 19% forPERCENTAGE OF CONFIDENCE
the federal government, but that confidence in
Republicans). This trend may be particularly government at any level is considerably higher
pronounced in this poll’s data considering it among Democrats than Republicans.
was in the field in the days leading up to and
PERCENT OF “A GREAT DEAL OR A FAIR AMOUNT” OF CONFIDENCE AT FEDERAL AND LOCAL LEVEL,
CUT BY PARTY
QUESTION: Generally, how much confidence do you have in the FEDERAL or LOCAL government to handle
challenges facing our country?
FEDERAL
DEMOCRAT 73%
INDEPENDENT 46%
REPUBLICAN 19%
LOCAL
DEMOCRAT 70%
INDEPENDENT 65%
REPUBLICAN
58%
PERCENTAGE OF
0% “A GREAT DEAL OR A FAIR AMOUNT” OF CONFIDENCE 100%
QUESTION: Generally, how much confidence do you have in the LOCAL government to handle
challenges 10
facing our20
country? 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
LOCAL
murmuration Winter 2021 National Polling Project 11NP
Voters want equity in education.
What do the numbers say?
• 3% of voters in this country believe our government should provide a higher proportion of
7
money and resources to schools in need.
MURMURATION THOUGHT BUBBLE:
Voters support educational equity, even if they don’t call it “equity.” The ideals underlying each of
these specific issues are at the core of our work and equity is the foundation on which advocates
have built the education reform sector. Voters seem open to policies that make education funding
more equitable, but likely need to be consistently engaged on the issue and have the specific
proposals to address inequities articulated to them clearly and compellingly.
WHAT WE’RE THINKING ABOUT:
If there is support for equity, but voters aren’t using the terminology, how do we message these
ideas in a way that resonates with voters (for example, would “fairness” generate more support), and
which of our partners will work with us to dive deeper into this topic, through polling, message
testing, etc.? Should we prioritize learning more about the degree to which voters will support
government action on these issues? What are voters willing to give up to make this possible (for
example, would upper-middle class voters support changing funding laws that would move money
from their schools to schools in greater need)? How much of a priority are these specific issues for
voters, especially when compared to other education and non-education related issues?
DISCUSSION QUESTIONS FOR PARTNERS:
• A
ssuming states and districts will receive some sort of federal stimulus, what policies can we
advocate for to ensure the dollars are implemented equitably?
• Do we need another race to the top program?
• I f there are budget gaps, how can we ensure that those most vulnerable are not first to get further
cuts?
• How can a platform based on equity help candidates set themselves apart?
• C
an this type of messaging help point out problems with the status quo, without attacking
respected institutions?
Interestingly, the purported lack of confidence to those in wealthier areas. Regardless of any
in the federal government — and to a certain lack of confidence in government, this should be
extent local governments — doesn’t stop people encouraging to everyone dedicated to improving
from broadly supporting educational policies at America’s struggling schools. Additional evidence
both the federal and local levels. Data from our from our most recent poll also suggests that
most recent poll suggests that there is broad voters are open to government solutions for
support for increasing funding equity: nearly improving public education. More than three-
three-quarters of voters either “strongly agree” quarters of voters stated that they either “strongly
or “somewhat agree” that “our government support” (50%) or “somewhat support” (25%)
budget” should provide a greater proportion of changing laws to “establish a right to a quality
resources to schools in greater need compared public education as a civil right,” meaning that
murmuration Winter 2021 National Polling Project 12NP the government would be obligated by law to
provide every child access to a quality education,
and that the government could be challenged in
court if that right was infringed upon.
Between these data points, it is clear that voters
seem to overwhelmingly want schools in need to
receive more resources than schools in wealthy
areas, and that they are supportive of making
access to a quality education a civil right. The
broad support for both of these ideas carries
across most subgroups of voters, with the highest
degree of support coming from voters under
36 years old, Black and Latinx voters, and from
Democrats.
SUPPORT FOR EDUCATIONAL EQUITY
QUESTION: Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: Our government budget should
provide a higher proportion of money and resources to the schools most in need compared with those
schools in wealthier communities.
Strongly Agree 49%
Somewhat Agree 24%
Neutral 14%
Somewhat Disagree 6%
Don’t Know 2%
Refused 0%
0 100%
QUESTION: Would you support or oppose changing laws to establish a right to quality public education
as a civil right, meaning the government would be obligated by law to provide every child access to a
quality education, and that the government could be challenged in court if that right is infringed upon?
Strongly Support 50%
Somewhat Support 26%
Don’t Know 6%
Somewhat Oppose 7%
Strongly Opposed 11%
Refused 1%
0 100%
murmuration Winter 2021 National Polling Project 13NP VOTERS’ MEDIA CONSUMPTION HABITS
Voters prefer getting their news from TV over all other media types.
WHAT WE’RE THINKING ABOUT:
What is the relationship between how voters consume their news and their receptiveness to political
messages and ads? Do voters accurately represent the source of their news? For example, do voters
categorize reading a news story posted to Facebook as getting their news from “social media’’ or
“internet news sites”? What are the tradeoffs between spending ad dollars on targeted internet ads
(such as Facebook) compared to less targeted ads that have the potential to reach more people (such
as cable news spots)? How can partners turn earned media that has previously been limited to social
media posts or local newspapers (and their websites) into opportunities that land them on local TV
stations?
DISCUSSION QUESTIONS FOR PARTNERS:
• H
ow can your organization generate earned media opportunities that put your message in front of
voters?
• What are your goals for using social media?
• Should the sector work on building relationships with local TV news editors and national outlets?
• Does the overwhelming preference for TV news change your ad spending strategy?
Winter 2021 marked the second time since the Television is far and away the most preferred
National Polling Project began that we asked method for voters to consume news, with 45%
voters about how they prefer to “stay most up to of respondents selecting it. “Internet new sites”
date with the news that affects them.” While these were identified as the most preferred way to
results haven’t changed much since we last asked consume news by the second largest group of
the question in May 2020, the results may be people, with 30% of voters choosing the option.
surprising. Notably, social media was selected by only 6% of
MEDIA PREFERENCE
QUESTION: Generally, what is your preferred way to stay most up to date with the news that most affects you?
Television 45%
Internet News Sites 30%
Social Media Sites 6%
Newspapers 6%
Radio 5%
Information From Friends And Or Family 3%
Podcasts 3%
Don’t Know/Not Sure Other Response 3%
0 % PERFERRED WAY OF RECEIVING NEWS 100%
murmuration Winter 2021 National Polling Project 14NP voters as their most preferred method of getting METHODOLOGY
news, though when we asked what respondents’ The poll was conducted January 19–26, 2020 and
next most preferred way of getting news was, the included 1,573 live-caller surveys administered
numbers for social media doubled (to 12%). The to roughly half landlines and roughly half cell
most important takeaway from this early set of phones. We used bilingual callers for Latinx
data points on voters’ media consumption respondents. Results were compiled by
preferences is that television is still the most Murmuration’s Data and Data Science Team
widely selected option, by a fairly considerable with responses weighted to the demographics
margin. of a presidential general election electorate
across age, gender, partisanship, educational
This has important implications for our partners attainment, and race. The margin of sampling
working in local politics. Since TV news is largely error (MOSE) is 2.8%. This calculation includes
focused on the national scale, we’d expect voters the uncertainty due to the sample design and
to spend more time thinking about national size. Sources of error not associated with the
politics than local politics. This is also supported sample such as poll question wording and survey
by this poll’s data that found nearly twice as many administration are not included in this metric.
people report they follow national politics “very
closely” (41%) compared to local politics (21%).
Local campaigns and community organizations
looking to communicate their message may face
an uphill battle when so many voters get their
news from TV. While we currently can’t say much
about how partners can mitigate these challenges
when crafting and implementing a messaging
strategy, Murmuration will be doing independent
research, talking with media experts, and
leveraging the Message Collaborative to learn
more. We hope that these research efforts,
supported by data from future rounds of the
National Polling Project, can help us determine
how partners can most effectively engage with
voters using different media platforms.
murmuration Winter 2021 National Polling Project 15NP ABOUT MURMURATION
Murmuration transforms how political For more information visit
campaigns, advocates, and organizers identify, www.murmuration.org.
engage, and mobilize people and communities.
Please direct any questions or inquiries to
We drive change and accelerate progress toward
info@murmuration.org.
a future where every child in America has the
opportunity to benefit from a high-quality public
education.
What We Do: We provide sophisticated data
and analytics, proprietary technology, strategic
guidance, and programmatic support to help
our partners build political power and marshal
support so necessary improvements are made to
our public schools.
Who We Are: Our team includes experts and
innovators in data, analytics, technology, and
strategy. We are former teachers, organizers,
data scientists, nonprofit executives, and political
campaign veterans.
Who We Work With: Murmuration works with
organizations that are building political power
and driving change so necessary improvements
are made to our public schools. Our partners
are the leading practitioners and funders of
efforts to elect people and mobilize communities
who believe every child in this country should
benefit from high-quality public education. Our
collaborators include best-in-class providers of
campaign technology and services for electoral,
organizing, and advocacy work.
murmuration Winter 2021 National Polling Project 16You can also read
