Nordic Spotlight: COVID-19 Weighs On Creditworthiness - Andreas Kindahl Regional Head, Nordics Global Head of Infrastructure & Utility Ratings ...
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Nordic Spotlight: Andreas Kindahl
Regional Head, Nordics
COVID-19 Weighs On Creditworthiness Global Head of Infrastructure & Utility Ratings
Nov. 18, 2020
Contents
Slide
Key Takeaways 3
Macroeconomic Forecast 4
Nordic Banks 13
Corporate Sector 21
Local And Regional Governments 33
Insurance Companies 38
Global Defaults 42
Appendix 48
Related Research 52
Analytical Contacts 53Key Takeaways: Deterioration Of Creditworthiness Is Uneven
Nordic economies are weathering the pandemic comparatively well. While a recession for full-year 2020 is
inevitable, recovery is well underway. However, downside risks are significant, as infection rates are
accelerating.
Nordic banks still have comfortable capital and liquidity buffers. Their earnings and capitalization exceed
the European average, offering substantial room to absorb an increase in loan loss provisions.
Some corporate sectors are suffering more than others. Policy measures have headed off a marked liquidity
crisis, but elevated debt levels heightens solvency risk for vulnerable companies.
Nordic insurers’ capitalization is strong, according to our capital model, which has helped them withstand the
pandemic’s impact and resulted in resilient ratings.
Local and regional governments will receive central government support to offset lower tax revenue growth
alongside higher expenditure and lower fee revenue related to health care, social welfare, and public
transportation.
The extent and timing of recovery will vary across regions and industries. The shape of recovery will differ
from previous crises and depend on the effectiveness and timing of a vaccine roll-out. The transition as
government-support programs wind down will be a litmus test.
3Macroeconomic Forecast The Nordic region is bracing for a synchronized recession in 2020
Nordic Economies | Nordics Fared Fairly Well In First-Half 2020
The Nordics Are Weathering The Pandemic-Induced Recession Comparably Well
-14% -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0%
– Europe and the Nordics are recovering from
Norway the COVID-19-related containment
Sweden measures implemented in spring.
Finland
– Extensive social welfare systems are
Denmark
supporting Nordic household spending,
Netherlands although consumption patterns have
Switzerland changed.
Iceland
– Advanced digital infrastructure has buoyed
Germany worker productivity.
Belgium
– Iceland’s economy has fared worse than
Portugal
other Nordics’, given its dependence on
Italy
tourism.
United Kingdom
– Nordic authorities have complemented
France
existing social welfare schemes with a
Spain
variety of fiscal, monetary, and regulatory
Year-on-year GDP change 2020 H1 vs 2019 H1 measures.
Source: OECD.
5Nordic Economies | Recovery Depends On Global Developments
S&P Global Ratings Forecasts U-Shaped Nordic Economic Recovery – Uncertainty around growth trajectory is high,
since it hinges on how the pandemic evolves.
Sweden Norway Denmark Finland Iceland Eurozone – Europe saw a rapid upswing after reopening,
8 but a second wave of infections is now
dampening activity. New restrictions in some
6
countries following a rise in COVID-19 cases,
4 including in the Nordics, could slow recovery.
– The EU’s measures to boost the pan-
2
European economy will be key in Nordic
0 recovery, given the region’s export-oriented
% 2018a 2019a 2020f 2021f 2022f nature.
(2)
– Finland may show the weakest recovery,
(4) since it faced structural headwinds pre-
pandemic.
(6)
– Iceland’s reliance on tourism and trade
(8) clouds its medium-term economic
prospects.
(10)
– While we expect Norway’s mainland
economic output to contract in line with
a--Actual. f--Forecast. S&P Global Ratings.
Nordic peers’ in 2020, strong oil production
should mitigate the headline GDP effect.
6A Fiscal Bridge Helps Economies Through The Demand Slump
Nordic Public Debt Will Increase To Fund COVID-19 Countermeasures
Forecast comparison of net public debt
February 2020 Increase September 2020 December 2019
Increase September 2020 March 2020 Increase September 2020
– Fiscal deficits will widen as Nordic
February 2020 Increase September 2020 March 2020 governments deploy support to their
Increase September 2020 domestic economies.
Net general government debt to GDP (%)
40 200
Net general government debt to GDP (%)
– Tax and transfer systems will continue to act
30 150
as strong automatic stabilizers.
20 100
10 50
– We anticipate fiscal efforts will facilitate
0 0
recovery of economic activity from third-
quarter 2020.
(10) (50)
(20) (100) – Sovereigns’ ample fiscal leeway will help
(30) (150) them absorb budgetary repercussions of
(40) (200) COVID-19.
(50) (250) – Norway’s substantial sovereign wealth fund
(60) (300) provides the country with financial resources
that well surpass those of other Nordics and
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
strong financial flexibility.
Denmark Finland Sweden Iceland Norway*
(right scale)
*Norway is in a net asset position. Therefore, the effect of higher fiscal spending is a weaker net asset position. Foreign exchange
movements are a substantial component of Norway's external asset position. Source: S&P Global Ratings.
7Sweden | The Economy Is Starting To Rebound
The Manufacturing PMI Rebounded After April Low
Contraction Expansion PMI-Manufacturing PMI-Service sector – Despite a relatively relaxed pandemic
75 response (no lockdown), economic output
70
will weaken due to a fall in global demand.
65
– Benefits will help sustain household incomes
and limit permanent unemployment.
60
– We expect real GDP to shrink by 5% in 2020,
55
but recovery swiftly.
PMI Index
50
– Sweden's support packages (SEK270 billion)
45 will lead to an estimated general government
40
deficit of 7% of GDP in 2020, with deficits
persisting through 2021, despite a robust
35
recovery.
30
– A return to negative rates seems unlikely. We
25 believe Sweden’s central bank is more likely
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Sep
Sep
Sep
Sep
Sep
Sep
Sep
Sep
Sep
Sep
Sep
Sep
Sep
Sep
May
May
May
May
May
May
May
May
May
May
May
May
May
May
May
to use asset purchases to stimulate the
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 economy.
PMI--Purchasing managers’ index. Source: S&P Global Ratings, with data from Swedbank and Silf.
8Norway | The Oil Price Drop Adds To COVID-19 Woes
The Oil Price And Krone Value Have Diverged In 2020
Brent Crude Oil Import-weigthed NOK – The economy and labor market are hurt by
140 120 lower demand and low oil prices.
120
– Although the OPEC+ group of oil producers
100
agreed to production cuts in April and that
Index 100=1995 (5 days average)
were extended in June 2020, oil demand and
$/barrel (5-days average)
100
80 prices remain under pressure.
80
– Despite planned global production caps, we
60
expect Norway’s production to increase in
60
2020 as the Johan Sverdrup field comes on
40
40
stream. This will generate revenue and soften
the economic impact from COVID-19.
20
20
– Norges Bank cut rates three times in 2020
and lowered its key policy rate to 0% in May
- -
Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 from 1.25% at the start of the year.
NOK--Norwegian krone. Sources: Norges Bank, S&P Global Ratings.
9Finland | Economic Growth Potential Needs A Boost
Growth Dynamics Were Already Sluggish Last Year
– We expect Finland's economy will contract by
Finland (Dec. 2019) Finland (Sept. 2020) 4.5% in 2020, followed by muted recovery.
8
– Revitalized reform momentum remains key
to sustain employment, boost productivity,
6
and ensure fiscal sustainability.
4
– We estimate that Finland’s support packages
will lead to a general government deficit of
2
about 8% of GDP in 2020, and 4.5% in 2021.
– While low net general government debt
%
0 provides room to absorb fiscal fallout from
the pandemic, contingent liabilities are set to
(2) rise from an already high 25% of GDP in
2019, as Finnvera offers guarantee support
(4) schemes for small and midsize enterprises.
(6)
2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020f 2021f 2022f
e--Estimate. f--Forecast. Source: S&P Global Ratings.
10Denmark | Pharmaceuticals Provide Some Export Resilience
The High Share Of Exports’ Domestic Value-Added Is A Strength
EU Sweden Denmark Norway Finland – Denmark’s high reliance on pharma makes
100 exports less vulnerable than the more
90
cyclical industries in Sweden and Finland.
– This will ease pressure from the heavily
80
affected services exports, transportation,
70 and shipping sectors.
60 – About one-third of the value of exported
services is created abroad, which mitigates
50 falling activity in the domestic economy.
%
40 – Danmarks Nationalbank raised the deposit
30
rate by 0.15 percentage points (ppt) to -0.6%
in early 2020, as domestic institutional
20 investors sold krone following the global
10
market sell-off. The policy rate is now 0.1 ppt
below the ECB policy rate.
0
Transportation equipment Pharmaceutical products Manufactored goods Services
Data as of 2016. Source: OECD.
11Iceland | High Exposure To Tourism And Trade Is The Achilles’ Heel
Public Debt Has Decreased Since The Financial Crisis Providing Room For Economic
Support
Net general government debt to GDP
Net general government debt to GDP – Iceland faces an economic contraction of
90 about 8% in 2020 as COVID-19 hits tourism
(about 9% of GDP in 2019). We expect
80 modest growth of 4% in 2021.
70 – With a population of only about 360,000 and
GDP of $24 billion in 2019, the country's
60
export base is very concentrated.
%
50
– Iceland’s dependence on tourism and trade
40 make it susceptible to external
developments, clouding its medium-term
30 economic prospects.
20 – Low net general government debt allows
room for fiscal stimulus, and the central
10
bank's substantial net foreign exchange
0 reserves, currently at over 30% of GDP,
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 provide policy flexibility.
Sources: Statistics Iceland, Central Bank of Iceland (fiscal indicators).
12Nordic Banks Likely to show resilience thanks to comfortable capital and liquidity
Nordic Bank Ratings Are Generally Stable For Now
Most Outlooks Are Stable, And Negative Ones Are Mainly On Finnish Banks
– Earnings remain above the European
average, implying banks can absorb a
substantial increase in credit provisions or
2 loss of revenue.
– Strengthening of bank regulations in the past
decade has led to strong capital and sound
9 liquidity.
Stable
– Earnings will be down in 2020, but we expect
Negative
recovery in 2021 alongside economic growth.
Positive
– The extent of asset-quality deterioration
22 depends on how long the economic
disruption lasts and the efficacy of
governments' measures.
– The relaxation of regulatory requirements
may entice banking systems to keep lending
to households and corporates.
Source: S&P Global Ratings. Data as of Nov. 13, 2020.
14Nordic Banking Sectors Can Manage The COVID-19 Impact
– Nordic banks are some of the most profitable, cost-efficient, and best-capitalized in Europe.
– Recent rating actions on Finnish and Icelandic banks reflect material risks from a deeper prolonged recession in their small economies.
Expected Credit Losses Are Among The Lowest Globally Nordic Banks' ROE Are Among The Strongest Of Global Peers'
2019 2020f 2021f 2019 2020f 2021f
40 14
35 12
30
10
25
Basis points
8
%
20
6
15
4
10
5 2
0 0
Denmark Sweden Finland Norway Norway Sweden Denmark Finland Iceland
f--Forecast. Source: S&P Global Ratings. f--forecast. ROE--Return on equity. Source: S&P Global Ratings.
15Swedish Banks Still Have Substantial Financial Flexibility
AAA S Support
AA+
SACP
AA S
AA- S S Outlook
A+ S S S S
Anchor
A S
A-
BBB+
BBB
BBB-
BB+
BB
BB-
B+
Swedish Export Svenska Swedbank AB Skandinaviska Lansforsakringar SBAB Bank Sparbanken Landshypotek Swedbank
Credit Corp. Handelsbanken Enskilda Bank AB (publ) Skane Bank AB Sjuharad AB
Banken AB
S—Stable outlook. SACP--Stand-alone credit profile or unsupported group credit profile for rated groups. Source: S&P Global Ratings. Data as of Nov. 16, 2020.
Key strengths Key risks
– Households’ strong financial positions offset their currently high debt. – Significant recent asset price appreciation in commercial and residential
property markets imply an increasing risk of imbalances.
– Commercial banks’ conservative lending practices support sound asset
quality. – Private-sector debt is high, with an increasing share of wholesale funding
– Swedish banks are digital frontrunners, with high efficiency allowing for for corporates.
materially stronger profitability metrics than European peers'. – Banks rely heavily on international wholesale funding.
16Danish Banks Remain Resilient Despite Pressure On Profitability
AAA Support
AA+
SACP
AA
AA- S Outlook
A+ S S
Anchor
A S
A- S
BBB+
BBB
BBB-
BB+
BB
BB-
B+
Nykredit Realkredit Danske Bank Jyske Bank DLR Kredit Danmarks Skibskredit
S—Stable outlook. SACP--Stand-alone credit profile or unsupported group credit profile for rated groups. Source: S&P Global Ratings. Data as of Nov. 16, 2020.
Key strengths Key risks
– Denmark has high income levels and a politically stable environment, with – The economy is highly leveraged.
strong external balances, supported by an efficient welfare system.
– Increased provisioning, negative interest rates, the minimum requirement
– Banks benefit from extensive domestic capital markets. for own funds and eligible liabilities, and competition are weighing on
– Decreasing private-sector leverage reduces households' vulnerability to earnings.
interest rate hikes.
17Finnish Banks Face Material Risk From The Domestic Economy
13
AAA
12
AA+
11
AA
10
AA-
A+9
A 8
A- 7
6
BBB
+ 5
BBB
4
BBB-
3
BB+
2
BB1
BB-
0
Nordea Bank Abp OP Corporate Bank Central Bank of Aktia Bank Plc Oma Savings Bank Bonum Pankki Oy S-Bank Ltd. Bank of Aland Suomen LocalTapiola Finance
PLC Savings Banks PLC Hypoteekkiyhdistys Ltd. (NBFI)
Finland Ltd
N—Negative outlook. SACP--Stand-alone credit profile or unsupported group credit profile for rated groups. Source: S&P Global Ratings. Data as of Nov. 16, 2020.
Key strengths Key risks
– Finland has an innovative and wealthy economy with mature political and – A deeper, more prolonged economic impact from COVID-19 in Finland than
institutional structures. in other Nordic peers can hurt banks' revenue and asset quality.
– The banking sector has strong capitalization and displays a moderate risk – Household debt is rising, due to mortgage and consumer loan growth over
appetite. the past decade.
– Households have a sound financial position and corporates continue to – We see a structural funding gap and reliance on international wholesale
support sound asset quality. funding.
18Norwegian Banks Have Sufficiently Strong Financial Buffers
AAA Final adjustment
AA+
Support
AA S
AA- P SACP
A+ Outlook
A S
Anchor
A- P
BBB+ S
BBB S
BBB-
BB+
BB
BB-
B+
DNB Bank Nordea Direct Storebrand Bank Eksportfinans Bank Norwegian Eiendomskreditt
Bank ASA*
N—Negative outlook. S—Stable outlook. SACP--Stand-alone credit profile or unsupported group credit profile for rated groups. P--Positive. *No SACP, only an issuer credit rating.
Source: S&P Global Ratings. Data as of Nov. 16, 2020.
Key strengths Key risks
– Norway's ample reserves and strong fiscal/external positions should – Household debt is high and the banking sector has material exposure to
mitigate the economic shock. vulnerable sectors, such as oil and gas, SME, commercial real estate, and
services.
– High individual income levels, and strong social and unemployment
protection support banks' loan books. – Established banks dominate some business segments in the highly
– The banking sector has high capitalization, alongside accumulated competitive market.
earnings and capital buffers, to help absorb credit losses related to the – Banks tend to rely on external and wholesale funding.
current stress.
19Icelandic Banks’ Weak Profitability Is Exacerbated By COVID-19
AAA SACP
AA+
AA Outlook
AA- Anchor
A+
A
A-
BBB+ S S S
BBB
BBB-
BB+
BB
BB-
B+
Arion Bank Islandsbanki hf Landsbankinn hf.
S--Stable. SACP--Stand-alone credit profile or unsupported group credit profile for rated groups. Source: S&P Global Ratings. Data as of Nov. 16, 2020.
Key strengths Key risks
– The economy enjoys high per capita income. – The already sluggish profitability is weakened by declining interest rates
– The banking sector still has high capitalization. and a sharp reduction in economic activity in Iceland.
– Commercial banks are maintaining conservative lending practices. – The Icelandic banks have material exposure to pandemic-hit industries,
such as tourism and commercial real estate.
– COVID-19 will result in asset quality deterioration and a surge of
impairments.
20Corporate Sector Credit pressure is mounting due to weak demand and supply disruptions
Corporates And Infrastructure | Negative Nordic Outlook Bias
– The pandemic-induced economic shock and depressed demand have eroded credit quality. Default rates are likely to increase.
– We have taken numerous negative rating actions in the Nordics, the majority on speculative-grade issuers and/or in the most exposed
industries (e.g., travel, capital goods, retail, and oil and gas).
– Unprecedented fiscal and monetary measures support good recovery prospects and prevented an immediate market liquidity crisis, but
may come at a cost to credit quality for weaker companies as debt levels have increased.
Nordic Rating Distribution Nordic Outlook And CreditWatch Distribution Has Shifted To Negative
Dec. 31, 2019 Nov. 18, 2020
18
16 80 75
14 70 62
12 60
No. of issuers
No. of issuers
10 50
8 40 32
6 30
4 20
10 8
2 10 3 3 4
0 0
Stable Negative CreditWatch Neg Positive
Data as of Nov. 18, 2020. Source: S&P Global Ratings . Source: S&P Global Ratings.
22Real Estate | Challenges Lie Ahead In Retail Real Estate
– Footfall in shopping centers has dropped dramatically, but less restrictive measures to contain the virus in the Nordics buoyed demand
versus the rest of Europe.
– Residential and community service properties have recorded minimal impact from COVID-19 compared with other segments. We
anticipate continued strong investor appetite for these assets.
– We expect most of the Nordic real estate companies to maintain their adjusted loan-to-value (LTV) levels in 2020-2021. However, as of
June 30, 2020, retail issuers’ LTVs have increased 2.1 percentage points on average because of a general devaluation of retail assets,
weakening financial flexibility for issuers with a high share of retail assets in their portfolios.
Adjusted LTV Remained Stable For Most Rated Real Estate
Retail Property Companies’ Rental Growth Versus Previous Year
Companies
12 mts, as of Dec. 31, 2019 6 mts, as of Jun. 30, 2020 As of Dec. 31, 2019 As of June 30, 2020 S&P Global Ratings' rating downgrade threshold
10
70
Like-for-like growth rate (%)
60
5
50
0
40
%
30
(5)
20
(10)
10
0
(15)
Akelius Heimstaden Sato SBB Balder Jernhusen S&S Citycon
Jernhusen S&S Citycon European Avg. Bostad
*Sources: S&P Global Ratings, and companies’ 2019 annual reports and half-year reports for 2020. Sources: S&P Global Ratings, companies’ 2019 annual reports, and -year
half reports for 2020.
23Telecoms | Stable Outlooks Underline The Industry's Resilience
– We expect most Nordic operators will report fairly flat organic revenue growth, with roaming revenue being most hurt by the pandemic,
while operating expenditure savings help to maintain relatively flat EBITDA for most operators, and modest recovery in 2021.
– We expect telecom operators to maintain strong balance sheets in 2020, but we see little rating headroom for most operators, aside from
Elisa, which had strong metrics before the crisis, and Telia following the sale of Telia Carrier in October 2020.
Nordic Telecoms' Credit Metrics Will Likely Stay Flat In The Coming Years
12 Telia (BBB+/Stable/A-2)
10 Telenor (A-/Stable/A-2)
8 Elisa (BBB+/Stable/A-2)
x 6
Tele2 (BBB/Stable/A-2)
4
DKT (B/Stable/--)
2
0
2018a 2019a 2020f 2021f
a--Actual. f--Forecast. Telia 2019 is pro forma the full-year consolidation of Bonnier Broadcasting. Telenor 2019 is pro forma the full-year consolidation of DNA. DKT's debt includes shareholder loans.
Data rating as of Oct. 28, 2020. Source: S&P Global Ratings.
24Capital Goods | Slow Demand Recovery Limits Prospects Into 2022
– The industry-wide impact from COVID-19’s economic effects has weighed on sales growth and profit margins for companies with exposure
to automotive, general engineering, and energy. We forecast a long road to recovery, well into 2022.
– Proactive management actions to shore up credit metrics (mainly capex and dividend cuts) have supported ratings and outlooks.
– We expect companies with strong pre-pandemic balance sheets, such as Sandvik, Epiroc, and Atlas Copco, to better weather the crisis;
while those with less headroom or engaging in M&A, such as Metso Outotec and Danfoss, are more dependent on more favorable conditions
to restore credit metrics.
– Five of the 10 we rate in the Nordic capital goods sector carry negative outlooks, after recently revising the outlooks on Alfa Laval and
Husqvarna to stable.
Selected Nordic Capital Goods Companies' EBITDA Margins
30 Atlas Copco
Sandvik
25
Alfa Laval
20 Assa Abloy
%
15 Danfoss
Husqvarna
10
Epiroc
5
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020f 2021f
f--Forecast. Source: S&P Global Ratings’ research.
25Autos | Volvo Car Can Manage Global Auto Sales Slump
– We project global light-vehicle sales to decline 20% this year, and recover about 7%-9% in 2021 and 2022.
– With sales in China, Europe, and U.S. and a competitive product offering, we expect Volvo’s volumes to be less impacted than average.
– We foresee its cash flows turning modest negative, but its balance sheet should remain strong. We revised the outlook to stable from
positive in May to reflect uncertain operating environment. A second wave of outbreaks/lock-downs are the largest risks to our projections.
We Foresee A Steep Drop In Volvo Car's Revenue And Margins… …Leading To breakeven Cash Flow In 2020
Revenue EBITDA margin (right) FFO FOCF DCF
300,000 12 20,000
250,000 10 15,000
200,000 8 10,000
Bil. SEK
Bil. SEK
150,000 6 5,000
%
100,000 4 0
50,000 2 (5,000)
0 0 (10,000)
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e
DCF--Discretionary cash flow. e--Estimate. FFO--Funds from operations. FOCF--Free operating cash FFO—Funds from operations. FOCF—Free operating cash flow. DCF—Discretionary cash flow. SEK--
flow. SEK--Swedish krona. Source: S&P Global Ratings. Swedish krona. Source: S&P Global Ratings forecasts
26Trucks | Low Leverage Gives Truck Makers Room To Maneuver
– We expect the heavy truck industry to face significant volume declines in 2020, with AB Volvo and Scania likely to experience a drop of 30%-
40% before a modest recovery in 2021.
– We forecast AB Volvo’s and Scania’s cash flows decreasing about 50% in 2020, but believe they will absorb the temporary market slump
thanks to strong balance sheets.
Heavy Duty Truck Sales Should Pick Up Next Year Volvo And Scania: Revenue And Margins Will Drop This Year
Europe North America APAC (right) Volvo revenue (left) Scania revenue (left)
Volvo EBITDA margin (right) Scania EBITDA margin (right)
500,000 1,800,000 450 16
450,000 1,600,000 400 14
400,000 1,400,000 350 12
350,000
1,200,000 300
300,000 10
Bil. SEK
1,000,000
Units
250
Units
250,000 8
%
800,000 200
200,000
6
600,000 150
150,000
400,000 100 4
100,000
50,000 200,000 50 2
0 0 0 0
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021e 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021f
e--Estimate. Source: S&P Global Ratings. APAC—Asia-Pacific. SEK--Swedish krona. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. Source: S&P Global Ratings.
27Investment Companies | Low Debt Buffers Equity Market Volatility
– Portfolio values have recovered strongly from temporarily falling stock values in Q1, and are broadly back to pre-COVID-19 levels. In
addition, low pre-pandemic debt sustained loan-to-value ratios at relatively low levels througout the equity market slump.
– There's rating headrom to absorb reduced equity values, but lower dividend income may pressure cash flow adequacy in 2020.
Investor AB Industrivärden AB L E Lundbergforetagen AB
Adjusted portfolio value Adjusted portfolio value Adjusted portfolio value
LTV threshold (right) LTV threshold (right) LTV threshold (right)
LTV (right) LTV (right)
LTV (right) 100 25
500 25 120 30
90
450
100 25 80 20
400 20
70
350
80 20
60 15
Bil. SEK
300 15 Bil. SEK
Bil. SEK
50
%
250 60 15
%
%
40 10
200 10
40 10 30
150
20 5
100 5
20 5
10
50
0 0 0 0
0 0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q2-2020 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q2-2020
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q2-2020
LTV--Loan to value. SEK--Swedish krona. Source: S&P Global Ratings and company reports.
28Regulated Utilities | Regulated Remuneration Offers Protection
– Nordic ulities' performace has not been impacted by the pandemic, since most receive compensation under regulatory frameworks.
– Instead, we expect Ellevio's credit metrics to be be hit hardest from lower WACC assumptions in Sweden, and Elenia's and Caruna’s
high dividends will constrain credit ratio improvements.
Limited Impact On Funds From Operations From COVID-19 Funds From Operations To Debt
Caruna Elenia Ellevio Caruna Elenia Ellevio
350 11
300 10
250 9
Mil. €
%
200 8
150 7
100 6
2016 2017 2018 2019f 2020f 2021f 2016 2017 2018 2019f 2020f 2021f
Source: S&P Global Ratings forecasts. WACC--Weighted average cost of capital. Source: S&P Global Ratings.
29Integrated Power | Low Power Prices Remain A Challenge
– Nordic power producers’ cash flows will drop from lower power prices and reduced demand (muted by 5%-10% from pandemic).
– Due to sustained mild weather, hydrological conditions are still strong, and will impact prices in the Nordic power market well into 2022.
We expect spot prices at about €10.0-€15.0/MWh for 2020 and €17.5-€22.5/MWh for 2021.
– We expect healthy hedge ratios and diversified operations will buoy credit metrics in 2020 and, to a lesser extent, in 2021.
Cash Flows Have Reduced Because Of Lower Power Prices... ...But Power Price Hedges Support Earnings In 2020
Fortum Orsted Fortum Hedge
Vattenfall Hedge
Statkraft Vattenfall Fortum Price
Nordpool system price (right scale) Vattenfall Price
S&P Nordpool price assumption (right scale)
40,000 50 90 40
45 80 35
35,000
40 70
30,000 30
35 60
25,000 25
% hedged
30
50
€/MWh
€/MWh
Bil. €
20,000 25 20
40
15,000 20 15
30
15
10,000 20 10
10
5,000 5 10 5
0 0 0 0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020f 2021f 2022f 2020 2021
f--Forecast. Source: S&P Global Ratings. MWh--Megawatt hour. Sources: Company and market data, S&P Global Ratings.
30Forest Products | The Real Challenge Remains Structural Decline
– Most Nordic packaging paper producers only saw a moderate dip in demand from the pandemic, given their exposure to the food and e-
commerce sectors, but the graphic paper and pulp segments saw strong drops.
– Office closures and advertising cuts accelerated the structural decline in demand for graphic paper. Most players aim to increase their
exposure to pulp, packaging paper, or specialty paper.
Nordic Forest Product Companies' Revenues And EBITDA Margins Will Decline In 2020, But Recover In 2021
12,000 30 Holmen (Rev.)
10,000 25
Metsä Board (Rev.)
SCA (Rev.)
EBITDA margin (%)
8,000 20
Revenue (€)
UPM-Kymmene
(Rev.)
6,000 15
Holmen (Op mrgn)
4,000 10 Metsä Board (Op
mrgn)
SCA (Op mrgn)
2,000 5
UPM-Kymmene (Op
mrgn)
0 0
2018 2019 2020f 2021f
f--Forecast. Source: S&P Global Ratings.
31Oil And Gas | Opex And Tax Relief Package Supports Resilience
– We expect Norway's oil & gas producers to be more resilient than many global peers’, due to the positive impact of the weakened
Norwegian krone on operating expenditure as well as lower cash taxes in the near to mid-term that are part of a government relief
package.
– Risks stem from a slower price recovery if rebalancing of the global oil market is delayed and oil storage levels reduce slowly.
We Anticipate A Gradual Recovery Over 2021-2022, Despite Lower Oil Prices
160
BRENT
140
120 Brent S&P
Global Ratings
100 forecast
WTI
$/bbl
80
60
WTI S&P Global
Ratings forecast
40
20
0
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
Bbl--Barrel of oil. Source: Capital IQ (historical data), S&P Global Ratings (forecast).
32Local And Regional Governments Budgetary pressure is mounting from lower tax revenue and higher spending
Sweden | Local And Regional Governments Are Under Pressure
COVID-19 Is Weighing On Swedish LRGs' Budgetary Performance
Operating balance (pre-COVID-19) Balance after capex (pre-COVID-19)
Operating balance (post-COVID-199) Balance after capex (post-COVID-19)
– The Swedish LRG sector will be hit by a loss
6
of tax and revenue owing to the economic
impact of the coronavirus outbreak.
4
– This is partly mitigated by significant central
2 government support, directly to the LRG
sector and indirectly via labor market
0 stimulus measures and aid for employers.
– The increased budgetary pressure could lead
%
(2) to a deterioration in performance metrics
across the sector.
(4)
– Since the start of the pandemic, we have
revised to negative our outlooks on six
(6)
municipalities, namely Örebro, Jönköping,
Vellinge, Södertälje, Västerås, and Täby.
(8)
2017 2018 2019 2020f 2021f 2022f
Capex--Capital expenditure. LRG--Local and regional government. Source: S&P Global Ratings.
34Norway | Central Government Support Will Cover Revenue Shortfall
LRGs Are Set To Receive Additional Grants And Transfers In 2020
Tax revenue Government transfers – COVID-19 and low oil prices will result in lost
tax and fee revenue for LRGs, alongside
Total revenue: +2.7%
higher health care and social welfare costs.
400,000
– However, central government support
packages and lower expenditure growth will
mitigate lost revenue in the medium term.
Grants and transfers +7.6%
300,000 – In addition, state-owned PSFA
Mil. NOK
Kommunalbanken was recapitalized to allow
it to provide more funding to the LRG sector if
200,000 needed.
– We affirmed the ratings on the two
Tax revenue -1.3% Norwegian municipalities we rate, Oslo and
100,000 Stavanger, on May 15, 2020.
0
2019 2020
LRG--Local and regional government. NOK--Norwegian krone. Source: Norwegian Ministry of Local Governments and Modernization, S&P Global Ratings.
35Finland | The Pandemic Highlights Structural Pressure On LRGs
Finnish LRGs' Budgetary Performance Was Under Pressure Before COVID-19
Operating balance Balance after capital expenditure
8
– Several Finnish municipalities were struggling to
6 comply with the balanced budget requirement
before 2020.
4 – The pandemic highlights the importance of social
and health care reform to address structural
2
challenges for LRGs, and changing
%
demographics.
– We believe Finnish LRGs will receive
0
extraordinary financial support from the central
government to help them cope with immediate
(2) budgetary pressures related to COVID-19.
(4)
2016 2017 2018 2019e
LRG--Local and regional government. e--Estimate. Source: S&P Global Ratings.
36Denmark | LRGs Benefit From State Support And A Solid Framework
Danish LRGs' Lower Tax-Supported Debt Than Nordic Peers’ Is A Strength
Denmark Sweden Finland Norway
120
– We expect the central government to provide
% tax supported debt of operating revenue
100
direct additional support to Danish LRGs,
thereby taking over most of the fiscal impact
from the pandemic.
80
– This, plus the automatic state grant
mechanism, will counterbalance the adverse
60 effects of lockdowns on LRGs' fiscal position.
– Restrictions on investment have been
40 temporarily lifted, which could lead to an
increase in LRGs' debt in the short term.
20 – However, a debt increase would be from very
low levels compared with Nordic peers’.
0
2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020f 2021f
LRG--Local and regional government. e--Estimate. f--Forecast. Source: S&P Global Ratings.
37Insurance Companies Strong capital underpins Nordic insurers' resilience to the pandemic's impact
Relatively High Ratings In The Nordic Insurance Sector
– We expect limited losses linked to COVID-19, except for travel or industrial lines, such as business interruption/event cancellation.
– Nordic insurers generally have strong capitalization, which should help them withstand the pandemic's impact.
– The impact on regulatory solvency and our risk-based capital model has so far been limited, but investment portfolios have experienced a
significant hit.
Median Rating Of 'A' Indicates Generally Strong Creditworthiness Our Nordic Insurance Ratings Have Been Relatively Stable
Upgrades Downgrades
10 5
8 4
No. of ratings
No. of ratings
6 3
4 2
2 1
0 0
A+ A A- BBB+ BBB 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Source: S&P Global Ratings. Data as of Oct. 28, 2020. Source: S&P Global Ratings.
39Technical Results Remain Strong For Nordic P/C Insurers
– Nordic P/C insurers’ combined ratio (loss and expense) remains stable and strong as companies focus on profitability, mainly through cost
efficiency, enhanced risk selection, and price increases in business lines where claims are increasing.
– Low interest rates will likely weigh on P/C insurers’ investment yields and return on equity, but to a lesser extent than in the life sector.
– Nordic insurers in particular have increased investment leverage to enhance returns through higher-risk assets, mainly equities.
Nordic P/C Insurers Display Strong and Stable Combined Ratios Capital Market Volatility To Hurt Nordic P/C Insurers’ ROE
German-speaking Nordic Northern Europe Southern Europe German-speaking Nordic Northern Europe Southern Europe
105 15
12
100
9
95
%
%
6
90
3
85 0
2018 2019 2020f 2021f 2018 2019 2020f 2021f
f--Forecast. ROE--Return on equity. Source: S&P Global Ratings.
Source : S&P Global Ratings. f--Forecast.
40Low-Interest-Rate Risk Is Pronounced For Nordic Life Insurers
– The ultra-low interest rates will continue to weigh on life insurers' profitability (return on assets and equity), particularly those with
guaranteed products. This is especially relevant for insurers in German-speaking and Nordic regions.
– In search of higher investment yields, some markets are exposed to the volatile equity and real estate classes. These high-risk assets
result in ROE volatility.
Nordic Life Insurers’ ROA Down In 2020 From Higher-Risk Assets Capital Market Volatility To Hurt Nordic Life Insurers’ ROE In 2020
German-speaking Nordic Northern Europe Southern Europe German-speaking Nordic Northern Europe Southern Europe
2.5% 16%
2.0% 12%
1.5% 8%
1.0% 4%
0.5% 0%
0.0% -4%
2018 2019 2020f 2021f 2018 2019 2020f 2021f
Source: S&P Global Ratings. f--Forecast. ROA—Return on assets.
Source: S&P Global Ratings. f--Forecast. ROE—Return on equity.
41Global Defaults Are Set To Rise
COVID-19 And Low Oil Prices Have Triggered Several Rating Actions
Regional Breakdown Of Corporate And Sovereign Issuers Affected Rating Actions Linked To COVID-19 And Oil Prices
By COVID-19 And Oil Prices By Sector And Region
Affected Not affected
APAC
EMEA
North
America
Latin
America
0 20 40 60 80 100
%
Data to Nov. 16, 2020. Source: "COVID-19- And Oil Price-Related Public Rating Actions On Corporations, Data to Nov. 16, 2020. The colors are based on percent impacted compared to total issuer population with
Sovereigns, And Project Finance To Date." the darker colors indicating the most impacted
43Rating Activity Is Slowing From COVID-19 And Oil Price War
COVID-19 and Oil Price War Resulted In Over 2,000 Negative Rating Actions
(Downgrades, Outlook Revisions, CreditWatch Negative)
Downgrades Downgrades and CreditWatch changes – Negative rating actions due to pandemic
CreditWatch negative placements Outlook revision and oil-price pressures ebb considerably
300
from late March / early April peaks and
actions shift from outlook revisions and
250 CreditWatch placements to downgrades.
– Sector differentiation. Since the summer,
Number of issuers
200
airlines, chemicals, and aircraft and
component makers continue to see negative
150 actions, owing to declines in travel as well as
automotive, housing, construction, and
100 general industrial demand.
50
0
March…
March…
March…
Feb. 14
Feb. 21
Feb. 28
July 3
Sept. 11
Sept. 18
Sept. 25
Aug. 14
Aug. 21
Aug. 28
Feb. 7
Oct. 16
Oct. 23
Oct. 30
Sept. 4
June 12
June 19
June 26
Nov. 13
Nov. 16
Aug. 7
May 15
May 22
May 29
02-apr
10-apr
17-apr
24-apr
Oct. 2
Oct. 9
June 5
Nov. 6
July 10
July 17
July 24
July 31
March 6
May 1
May 8
Data to Nov. 16, 2020. Source: "COVID-19- And Oil Price-Related Public Rating Actions On Corporations, Sovereigns, And Project Finance To Date."
44More Corporate Defaults Are On The Way
European Nonfinancial Corporate Default Rates Will Likely Spike
European speculative grade default rate Long-term average (3.1%)
Base (8.5%) Pessimistic (11.5%) – U.S. and European default risk has risen
Optimistic (3.5%) sharply, fueled by a higher share of 'B' category
16
ratings than pre-pandemic.
14 – We expect the European trailing 12-month
speculative-grade corporate default rate to
12 rise to 8.5% by June 2021, from 3.4% in June
2020. In the U.S., it will likely reach 12.5% by
10
June 2021 as credit conditions have worsened.
8 – Corporations will carry much more debt in the
%
years ahead. This will have to be financed
6
through even more debt or will require organic
4 revenue to increase at a faster pace.
– The massive policy response from central
2 banks and governments worldwide is likely to
soften the blow, particularly with regard to
0
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 financial market liquidity.
Source: “Credit And Economic Deterioration Signals A Rising European Speculative-Grade Default Rate Despite Market Optimism,” published
Aug. 18, 2020, on RatingsDirect. Speculative grade--Companies rated 'BB+' or lower. Note: Shaded areas are periods of recession
45Stress Levels Vary By Sector And Rating In EMEA
– Sectors with a higher share of noninvestment grade ratings ('BB+' and lower) are particularly vulnerable. The media and lodging sector is
the most at risk, with the majority of companies in those rating categories.
– The percentage of speculative-grade issuers with weak ratings was at an all-time high of more than 20% before the pandemic began, and
increased to about 33% in August 2020.
Retail Sector Has Highest Share Of ‘CCC/CC’ Ratings Share Of Low Speculative-Grade Entities Is Rising In Europe
CCC & Lower B BB CCC/C B- B
Retail (31) B+ BB- BB
Media/lodging (75) BB+ B- and lower (right axis)
Transportation (32) 800
Oil & Gas (33)
33
Metals/mining/steel (20) 700
Aerospace & Defense (9)
Consumer products (126) 600 28
No. of issuers
High technology (52)
CP&ES (60) 500
Capital Goods (60) 23
400
%
Health Care (72)
FP&BM (36)
300 18
Telecommunications (45)
NonBank Financial Institutions (41) 200
Home/Re (51) 13
Utilities (92) 100
Bank (103)
Sovereign (38) 0 8
Insurance (60)
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
CP&ES--Chemicals, packaging, and environmental services. FP&BM—Forest products and building materials. Source: Source: S&P Global Ratings.
“Credit Conditions Europe: Ill-Prepared For Winter,” published Sept. 29, 2020.
46EMEA | Hardest Hit Sectors Longest To Recover
Beyond 2023 – Recovery prospects will vary
No deterioration 2022
- Healthcare - Pharmaceuticals - Utilities - A&D - Commercial Aerospace
- Retail - Non-essential
widely across different corporate
- Retail - Essential/Grocery - Cons Prod - Tobacco & Alcoholic Beverage
- A&D - Defense Contractors - Business & Consumer Services
- Real Estate (REITs)
- Retail - Restaurants
- Transport Infra - Airports sectors. Those hardest hit by the
- Transportation - Airlines
- Technology
- Engineering & Construction economic downturn and social
2H 2021 - Transportation - Shipping
- Capital Goods distancing--including nonessential
- Telecom - Building Materials
- Healthcare - Equipment
- Transport Infra - Toll Roads
- Chemicals
- Metals & Mining
retail, restaurants, and travel--may
- Paper & Packaging
- Homebuilders & Developers 2023 not fully recover to 2019 levels until
1H 2021 - Oil & Gas
- Leisure - Gaming
- Cons Prod - Luxury & Discretionary
- Automotive 2023 or later.
- Cons Prod - Pack.Food/Pers & Home Care/Agr&Ingr. - Media & Entertainment
- Leisure - Lodging and hospitality
- Transport Infra - Rail
– Key risks remain a resurgence in
- Healthcare - Services - Leisure - Cruise lines
- Leisure - Theme park and other visitor attractions
infections before a vaccine
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
becomes widely available;
2022 2023 deteriorating credit fundamentals
raising solvency issues,
notwithstanding short-term
liquidity support measures;
escalation in bilateral trade
tensions globally; and uncertainty
and job insecurity inhibiting a
recovery in consumer spending.
Source: COVID-19 Heat Map: Updated Sector Views Show Diverging Recoveries, Sept. 29, 2020. S&P Global Ratings.
47Appendix
Nordic Corporate COVID-19/Oil Price Rating Actions March 2020
Date Company Country Practice Sector Rating action To From
March 20 Hurtigruten Norway Corporates Transport Downgrade CCC+/Negative/-- B-/Stable/--
March 20 SAS AB Sweden Corporates Airlines Downgrade B/Watch Neg/-- B+/Stable/--
March 23 Norican A/S Denmark Corporates Capital goods Downgrade B-/Negative/-- B/Stable/--
March 24 ISS A/S Denmark Corporates Business services Outlook revision BBB/Negative/-- BBB/Stable/--
March 25 Metso Outotec Finland Corporates Capital goods Outlook revision BBB-(prelim)/Negative/-- BBB-(prelim)/Stable/--
March 25 Danfoss A/S Denmark Corporates Capital goods Watch Neg BBB/Watch Neg/A-2 BBB/Negative/A-2
March 25 Metso (Neles) Finland Corporates Capital goods Downgrade BBB-/Watch Neg/A-3 BBB/Watch Neg/A-2
March 25 Equinor Norway Corporates Oil & gas Outlook revision AA-/Negative/A-1+ AA-/Stable/A-1+
March 25 Aker BP Norway Corporates Oil & gas Outlook revision BBB-/Negative/-- BBB-/Stable/--
March 26 Avinor Norway Infrastructure Airport Downgrade A+/Negative/A-1 AA-/Stable/A-1+
March 30 Stena AB Sweden Corporates Diversified Outlook revision B+/Negative/-- B+/Stable/--
March 31 Dometic Sweden Corporates Capital goods Downgrade BB-/Watch Neg/-- BB/Stable/--
March 31 Corral Petroleum Sweden Corporates Oil & gas Downgrade B/Negative/-- B+/Positive/--
March 31 Welltec Denmark Corporates Oil & gas Outlook revision B-/Negative/-- B-/Stable/--
March 31 PGS ASA Norway Corporates Oil & gas Outlook revision B-/Watch Neg/-- B/Stable/--
March 31 Steen & Strom Norway Corporates Real estate Outlook revision A-/Negative/A-2 A-/Stable/A-2
March 31 SSAB Sweden Corporates Steel Outlook revision BB+/Negative/B BB+/Stable/B
49Nordic Corporate COVID-19/Oil Price Rating Actions To June 2020
Date Company Country Practice Sector Rating action To From
April 1 Transcom Sweden Corporates Business services Downgrade CCC+/Negative/-- B-/Stable/--
April 1 Alfa Laval AB Sweden Corporates Capital goods Outlook revision BBB+/Negative/-- BBB+/Stable/--
April 1 Husqvarna Sweden Corporates Capital goods Outlook revision BBB/Negative/A-2 BBB/Stable/A-2
April 7 Volvo Car Sweden Corporates Autos Outlook revision BB+/Stable/-- BB+/Positive/--
April 7 Amer Sports Finland Corporates Consumer products Downgrade B-/Negative/-- B+/Stable/--
April 9 Oriflame (Walnut) Sweden Corporates Consumer products Downgrade B/Negative/-- B+/Stable/--
April 14 Navico Norway Corporates Technology Downgrade CCC-/Negative/-- CCC/Negative/--
April 15 Intrum Sweden Non-bank Distressed debt Downgrade BB/Negative/B BB+/Negative/B
April 15 B2Holding Norway Non-bank Distress debt Downgrade B+/Negative/-- BB-/Stable/--
April 15 TVO Finland Infrastructure Power Downgrade BB/Negative/B BB+/Watch Neg/B
April 21 Perstorp Sweden Corporates Chemicals Downgrade B-/Negative/-- B/Negative/--
April 23 Nets Denmark Corporates Payment provider Downgrade B-/Negative/-- B/Developing/--
April 27 A.P. Moller-Maersk Denmark Corporates Shipping Outlook revision BBB/Negative/-- BBB/Stable/--
April 30 Securitas Sweden Corporates Security services Outlook revision BBB/Stable/A-2 BBB/Positive/A-2
April 30 Ahlsell (Quimper) Sweden Corporates Distribution Outlook revision B/Negative/-- B/Stable/--
May 4 Assa Abloy Sweden Corporates Capital goods Outlook revision A-/Negative/A-2 A-/Stable/A-2
May 14 Dometic Sweden Corporates Capital goods Off CreditWatch BB-/Negative/-- BB-/Watch Neg/--
May 28 Autoliv Sweden Corporates Automotive supplier Downgrade BBB/Stable/A-2 BBB+/Negative/A-2
June 10 SAS AB Sweden Corporates Airline Downgrade CCC/Watch Neg/-- B/Watch Neg/--
June 17 PGS Norway Corporates Oilfield services Downgrade CCC/Negative/-- B-/Watch Neg/--
June 30 Jernhusen Sweden Corporates Real estate Outlook revision A/Negative/A-1 A/Stable/A-1
50Nordic Corporate COVID-19/Oil Price Rating Actions To Nov. 18, 2020
Date Company Country Practice Sector Rating action To From
July 2 SAS AB Sweden Corporates Airlines Downgrade CC/Negative/-- CCC/Watch Neg/--
July 14 Avinor AS Norway Infrastructure Airport Downgrade A/Negative/A-1 A+/Negative/A-1
July 14 Alfa Laval AB Sweden Corporates Capital goods On CreditWatch BBB+/Watch Neg/-- BBB+/Negative/--
Sept. 4 TVO Finland Infrastructure Power On CreditWatch BB/Watch Neg/B BB/Negative/B
Svenska Cellulosa
Sept. 7 Sweden Corporates Forest products Downgrade BBB-/Stable/A-3 BBB/Stable/A-2
Aktiebolaget SCA
Sept. 14 Danfoss Denmark Corporates Capital goods Off CreditWatch BBB/Negative/A-2 BBB/Watch Neg/A-2
Sept. 21 PGS ASA Norway Corporates Oilfield services Selective default SD CCC/Negative/--
Oct. 13 Adevinta ASA Norway Corporates Classifieds operator Rating assinged BB-(prelim)/Stable/-- Not rated
Oct. 21 SGLT Holding Denmark Corporates Transportation Outlook revision B/Negative/-- B/Stable/--
Oct. 22 Scania AB (publ) Sweden Corporates Heavy truck Outlook revision BBB/Negative/A-2 BBB/Stable/A-2
Oct. 28 SAS AB Sweden Corporates Airlines Downgrade SD CC/Negative/--
Oct. 29 Rikshem Sweden Corporates Real estate Rating withdrawn Not rated BBB+/Stable/A-2
Nov. 14 Maersk A/S Denmark Corporates Transportation Outlook revision BBB/Positive/-- BBB/Stable/--
Nov. 10 ISS A/S Denmark Corporates Service Downgrade BBB-/Negative/-- BBB/Negative/--
Nov. 17 Alfa Laval AB Sweden Corporates Capital goods Off CreditWatch BBB+/Stable/-- BBB+/Watch Neg/--
Nov. 17 Husqvarna AB Sweden Corporates Capital goods Outlook revision BBB/Stable/A-2 BBB/Negative/A-2
Nov. 18 Ericsson Sweden Corporates Telecommunications Upgraded BBB-/Stable/A-3 BB+/Positive/A-3
51Related Research
– Nordic Banks' Strong Capital Deflects COVID-19 Impact, Sept. 8, 2020
– How COVID-19 Is Affecting Bank Ratings: October 2020 Update, Oct. 22, 2020
– COVID-19 Impact: Key Takeaways From Our Articles (updates frequently)
– COVID-19- And Oil Price-Related Public Rating Actions On Corporations, Sovereigns, And Project Finance To Date
(updates frequently)
– Global Credit Conditions: The Shape Of Recovery: Uneven, Unequal, Uncharted, July 1, 2020
– Credit Conditions Europe: Curve Flattens, Recovery Unlocks, June 30, 2020
– Economic Research: Eurozone Economy: The Balancing Act To Recovery, June 25, 2020
– COVID-19 Heat Map: Post-Crisis Credit Recovery Could Take To 2022 And Beyond For Some Sectors, June 24, 2020
– COVID-19: Resilient Fundamentals And Assertive Policy Measures Will Buoy Nordic Banking Systems, June 16, 2020
– Default, Transition, and Recovery: The European Speculative-Grade Corporate Default Rate Could Reach 8.5% By March
2021, June 8, 2020
– European Insurers: Capitalization Appears Resilient Under Solvency II, Somewhat Less Under Our Capital Model, May
28, 2020
– COVID-19 Could Further Strain Swedish LRGs' Budgets, May 20, 2020
52Analytical Contacts
Andreas Kindahl Salla von Steinaecker Carl Nyreröd
Regional Head, Nordics; Global Head Director; Financial Services Director; International Public
of Infrastructure & Utilities Finance
andreas.kindahl@spglobal.com salla.vonsteinaecker@spglobal.com carl.nyrerod@spglobal.com
+46-8-440 5907 +49-69-3399 9164 +46-8-440 5919
53Analytical Contacts
Per Karlsson Thierry Guermann
Director, Nordic Utilities Director, Telecoms
per.karlsson@spglobal.com thierry.guermann@spglobal.com
+46-8-440-59-27 +46-8-440-59-05
Gabriel Forss Pierre-Brice Hellsing
Associate Director; Sovereigns Associate Director; Financial Institutions
gabriel.forss@spglobal.com pierre-brice.hellsing@spglobal.com
+46-8-440-5933 +46-8-440-5906
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