Property Index Overview of European Residential Markets Affordable vs. Luxury Living 7th edition, September 2018 - Deloitte
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Property Index Overview of European Residential Markets Affordable vs. Luxury Living 7th edition, September 2018
Property Index | 7th edition, September 2018 Property Index | 7th edition, September 2018 Introduction Introduction 03 Property Index, Overview of European Residential Highlights 05 Markets, with its six-year history, has become one of the most important European real estate publications. Economic Development in Europe 06 In this context, we are pleased to present to you the Trends 08 seventh edition. Focus: Affordable vs. Luxury Living 10 Property Index analyses factors influencing the Comparison of Residential Markets – Housing Development Intensity 12 development of residential markets and compares Comparison of Residential Property Prices in Selected Countries and Cities 17 residential property prices in selected European Mortgage Markets in Europe 30 countries and cities. Annex: Comments on Residential Markets 32 Our goal is to provide you with European residential Contacts 38 market data on a regular basis and answers to Authors 39 questions on how Europeans live and at what costs. 2 3
Property Index | 7th edition, September 2018 Property Index | 7th edition, September 2018 To summarise all important outputs from our research we outlined in the introductory part the key trends we Most presented indicators are on a year-on year basis and are to some extent also influenced by geopolitical situations or Highlights 16,512 EUR believe resonate on the residential various factors affecting the volume of market the most. Two of them are supply and demand. Inner London was again the most expensive city further elaborated in greater detail among surveyed cities with a price tag reaching in the focus chapter in order to be a Property Index was prepared by a proven 16,512 EUR/sq m. Living outside of Inner London bigger subject in public discussion. international and cross-functional team of was cheaper, however, still above average Deloitte professionals in the development, amounting to 6,841 EUR/sq m. As in the previous year, we especially focu- mortgage and real estate markets. This sed our attention on: •• Austria (AT); publication has been prepared using data collected by individual Deloitte offices in selected countries. 17% •• Belgium (BE); Out of the examined capitals, Madrid •• Czech Republic (CZ); •• Denmark (DK); Property Index capitalises on Deloitte’s extensive knowledge of the real showed the highest increase in the average transaction price of new 4,397 EUR estate and development industry, enabling dwellings, increasing by 17%. us to provide you with independent and The highest price per sq m was observed •• France (FR); credible information. again in the United Kingdom (4,397 EUR / •• Germany (DE); sq m) even despite the price decrease We hope you will find this seventh issue of (-5.0%) compared to the last year due to •• Hungary (HU); 8.6 the publication interesting and inspiring for british Pound depreciation. However, in •• Italy (IT); you and for your business. British pound (excluding exchange rates) house prices increased in the UK. •• Latvia (LV); •• Netherlands (NL); The highest value of the initiated housing develop- •• Poland (PL); ment intensity indicator was •• Portugal (PT); recorded in Austria, where 8.6 apartments per 1,000 •• Spain (ES); and citizens were initiated. •• United Kingdom (UK). 1,080 EUR 11 years Debrecen in Hungary was for the third time in a row the cheapest city among The least affordable own hou- all observed cities with a price tag of sing was for the second time 1,080 EUR/sq m. observed in the Czech Republic where citizens need to save more than 11 years to buy a new apartment. 4 5
Property Index | 7th edition, September 2018 Property Index | 7th edition, September 2018 The real unit labour costs remained Europe still faces geopolitical risks that productivity. An aging population will add at the level of the year 2016. In 2017, could have an impact on its economy. some pressure to the labour markets and imports grew slightly more than exports EU faces threat of tariffs on exports of could slow down GDP growth as well. While and consequently the trade surplus of steel and aluminium products to the the average growth in the 10 years before the EU fell from EUR 32bn to EUR 23bn. USA (potentially also on exports of cars). the financial crisis (1998–2007) reached The unemployment rate descended from Renewed US sanctions on Iran could also 2.6%, expected long-term growth in its high of 10.9% in 2013 to 7.1% in indirectly impact European firms. Sanc- coming years is likely to oscillate between March 2018. tions against Russia are still in place. The 1.7–2.0%. United Kingdom entered the process of Economic Fiscal policy in most European countries leaving the EU in March 2017. The migra- remained neutral or tightened in an effort tion crisis seems to be easing. to get closer to the long-term sustainability of public finances. General government The long-term prospects of the EU and the deficit declined (or surpluses increased) in Eurozone are expected to be negatively 23 out of 28 EU countries in 2017. affected by the slow growth of total factor Development Growth of Real GDP in EU 28 in Europe 4% 2.6% 2.7% 2.1% 2.2% 2.3% 1.7% 1.6% 1.8% 2% 0.3% 0% The European economy continued to rise in 2017. -0.4% The growth was slightly faster in comparison -2% to 2016. GDP in the whole EU-28 increased by 2.6%, the Eurozone rose by 2.5%. The growth was -4% supported by the ECB’s accommodative policy and -4.3% low commodity prices, despite commodity prices started gradually rising during 2017. -6% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018p 2019p Source: Eurostat. Forecast: Deloitte External conditions also improved a bit in EUR 60bn to EUR 30bn starting from 2017. The US growth accelerated to 2.3% January 2018. This monthly volume will from 1.5% in 2016. The Chinese economy be valid until the end of September. ECB kept growth slightly below 7%. Japan policy rates remained on their historical The housing market is usually sensitive last 10 years. Thus, the expected sluggish in the EU will keep interest rates at low grew by 1.5% (up from 0.9%). Russian and lows (deposit rate -0.40%, refinancing to economic conditions, especially GDP economic growth is likely to limit inflation levels and together with the steadily falling Brazilian economies left recession. This rate 0.00%, marginal lending rate 0.25%). growth and interest rates. Correlation in house prices in the coming years. On the unemployment rate support the housing positive external environment contributed Declining interest rates contributed to between lagged GDP growth and house other hand, the accommodative monetary market. to acceleration of EU economy. the growth of consumption expenditures prices in the EU reached 83% during the policy of the ECB and other central banks of households by 2.2% and fixed capital In October 2017, the ECB decided to investment by 4.1% in the EU in 2017. reduce monthly asset purchases from 6 7
Property Index | 7th edition, September 2018 Property Index | 7th edition, September 2018 Trends 3/ Private vs. institutional investors 9/ Digitalisation As prices have increased over time and returns on properties have become lower in large cities, there Digitalisation is a buzzword that over- 1/ 6/ is a tendency for institutional investors to search Low interest for new and more risky local markets to generate Affordable laps all sectors, including the real estate market. Traditional market actors are rates higher returns. The low yield environment has living facing a wave of innovation, such as big pushed pension funds and other conservative data, the Internet of Things or artificial institutions over to alternative investments, where Interest rates are expected to stay low Affordable housing has become a new intelligence. Users can for example the real estate market is seen as a more “safe hea- in the short term. The low interest rate topic publicly often discussed. Because of independently carry out a cost-efficient ven” when it comes to stable returns to cover their environment and the resulting high reduction in the household size, property initial assessment of a residential pro- long-term liabilities. On the other hand, further borrowing capacity will continue to developers are adapting to this trend by perty through smartphone, tablet expected economic growth, increased wages and be the main drivers of the residential providing smaller units. The government or computer. Established companies low unemployment rate caused greater appetite property activity. Uncertainty regarding also contributes by increasing the social should therefore adapt to new challen- for own housing by private individuals. the start of significant interest rate housing stock and newly tries to cooperate ges and disruptive competitors. movements will remain. more closely with private investors. 2/ Increasing foreign demand 7/ Rental housing Increasing influence of foreign demand, Increase in rental housing owing to the 5/ especially in large cities, drives the future residential market development. Due to attractive offer of jobs in regional capitals, a relatively stable political environment across Functional and flexible flexibility of the liability, and the high prices of own housing becomes more important Europe, simplicity of international financial transaction flows and cheap money, foreign living space recently. Also developers are focusing on real estate markets are becoming more con- rental housing where they construct deve- 10/ Ongoing globalisation, urbanisation and demographic lopment projects with the aim to rent the fident to invest. The foreign inflow of money changes produce new forms of functional and flexible living future apartments. Increasing demand may have a positive impact on local econo- mies, however, it also affects the increase of space. The young generation, also called “millenials“ or for luxury living residential property prices. “Generation Y“, who are less oriented towards ownership, often refuse to commit themselves to repaying mortgage Economic recovery, increasing investment loans and prefer the „sharing economy“, demand more appetite and capital-less cross-border comfortable and attractive living. Developers therefore transactions in specific regions help boost turn to projects designed for student or temporary the demand for luxury living. Developers 4/ 8/ housing in desirable locations close to campuses. Similar Urbanisation vs. requirements for tailor-made housing are also expanding Increase of construction therefore tend to build new projects at a very high standard to meet the expecta- suburbanisation among the elderly generation. and labour costs tions of even the most demanding clients. To differentiate themselves from the Extensive workload in the construction competition, developers also try to offer Population migration within cities varies according to industry and a consequently rapid increase new types of living, such as apartments European regions. Increasing demand for affordable of construction costs in the housing sector with car parking inside the apartments, or living space in more peripheral areas and remote dis- is one of the key signs recently affecting the skyscrapers with incredible views. tricts can be observed for example in Austria. However, ongoing urbanisation and increased demand for city residential market. There is also a shortage apartments and fully-furnished houses in the centre is of skilled labour, which causes the incre- expected in Germany and Latvia. ase in labour costs. Finally, lack of land for construction purposes limits residential construction in major cities. 8 9
Property Index | 7th edition, September 2018 Property Index | 7th edition, September 2018 Focus: Affordability of Own Housing Gross annual salaries for the standardised new dwelling (70 sq m), 2017 Affordable vs. Luxury 12 11.3 Living 10 9.8 8.0 8 7.5 Last year we covered the introductory In order to assess the affordability of one’s It is clear from the chart on the right that 7.1 part with a focus on the rental market own housing, we measure how many the higher the wage, the more affordable and rental living. This year’s focus deals average gross annual salaries it takes to the own housing. Two countries do not 6.3 with the housing affordability more deeply buy a standardised new dwelling (70 sq m): meet this rule – the United Kingdom and than in previous years and tries to answer France. In the UK the highest living costs 5.8 •• The most affordable housing can 6 5.6 a question – Is the worsening affordability can be observed undoubtedly in the long be found newly in Belgium, where 5.4 unsustainable in the long-term? run and France has similar characteristics. 5.0 a household needs to save on average Although their wages are above average, only 3.7 years to buy a new dwelling. 4.3 To better understand the impact of gene- making their own living is only for the rich. However, the difference between gross rally increasing house prices in European and net salary in Belgium is bigger than countries and cities it is important to take From the other perspective rise of luxury 4 3.7 in the other countries. In case of net into consideration how homeowners development projects has emerged salaries overview this would cause the perceive the prices they have to pay to buy recently. People are demanding more living less affordable. a home. and more comfort, flexibility, high-quality •• Belgium is closely followed by Denmark services and unconventional concepts of As home ownership has become increasin- and Germany. living. Noteworthy are for example luxury 2 gly difficult to access, the term affordable residential high tower projects with a great •• In the Netherlands the number of gross housing appeared. Affordable housing view or projects with car parking inside the annual salaries needed to buy a dwelling is used to describe dwelling units whose apartment or even inside the living room. of 70 sq m grew to almost 6 years. the total housing cost of which is deemed “affordable” to a group of people within •• Relatively affordable housing, which is up All major cities in Europe currently face a specified income range. to 6 years of savings, can be found also in new challenges in meeting the needs of 0 Spain or Austria. luxury clientele as well as to resolve signals CZ UK FR PL HU IT NL** AT ES DE* DK BE The price level of wages varies according to in the availability situation. The question •• If local citizens are looking for an average location and work productivity. Therefore is to what extent the society is shattering, new dwelling in Italy, Hungary, Poland the indicator Affordable housing shows however, the differences in wealth are or France, they need to save money better the disparities in income ranges a natural part of the urban development between 6 – 8 years. Affordability in relation to house prices between all in cities. observed countries. •• Second lowest affordability of own housing was recorded in the United However, comparing average monthly Kingdom amounting 9.8 years. * bid price salaries certifies large differences among ** older dwellings •• The least affordable own housing was selected European countries. For example for the second time observed in the the average monthly salary in Denmark is Czech Republic where citizens need to 4 times higher than the salary in Hungary. save more than 11 years to buy a new Source: National Statistical Authorities, Deloitte data calculations apartment. 10 11
Property Index | 7th edition, September 2018 Property Index | 7th edition, September 2018 Comparison of Residential Initiated Dwellings In the countries of interest, the indica- tor of the intensity of initiated housing The lowest intensity of initiated housing development was recorded in Italy and Latvia. Although the total number of The year-on-year comparison saw the greatest increase in the intensity of ini- tiated housing development. In contrast, Markets – Housing development amounted to 3.8 initiated apartments initiated in Italy in 2017 was the greatest decline in the value of this apartments per 1,000 citizens in 2017. almost 55,000 apartments, this only indicator was recorded in Germany. There, translates to 0.9 initiated apartments per the intensity of initiated housing develop- Development Intensity This year, the highest value of the ini- 1,000 citizens. In Latvia, the total number ment recorded a year-on-year decrease of tiated housing development intensity of initiated apartments was the lowest 0.4 initiated apartments per 1,000 citizens. indicator was recorded in Austria, where among all the compared countries (2,000); 8.6 apartments per 1,000 citizens were however, when translated to 1,000 citizens, initiated. In aggregate terms, this translates the intensity of initiated housing develop- to more than 75,000 initiated apartments ment was as high as 1.1. Completed Dwellings per 1,000 citizens were completed in 2017. tes to 1,500 apartments overall. In the long in Austria. With 6.4 and 5.4 initiated The indicator of housing development inten- France also recorded the highest number of term, low housing development intensity apartments per 1,000 citizens, France and sity at the level of the European Union coun- completed apartments in terms of aggregate has also been seen in Spain. There, housing Poland placed second and third, respecti- tries has reported similar values for several figures: in excess of 498,000. With 4.6 and development intensity is about one comple- vely. In absolute terms, the greatest num- years, reaching 3.2 completed apartments 3.9 apartments completed per 1,000 citi- ted apartment per 1,000 citizens. ber of apartments were initiated in France: per 1,000 citizens. In 2017, the same value of zens, Poland and Belgium placed second and in excess of 429,000. the indicator was recorded in respect of the third, respectively. In the year-on-year comparison, the intensity selected countries subject to comparison. slightly increased in all monitored countries. In 2017, the lowest housing development The only exception is Belgium, which recor- The highest housing development intensity intensity was recorded in Latvia, where ded a slight year-on-year decline. among all countries compared this year only 0.8 apartments were completed per was seen in France, where 7.4 apartments 1,000 citizens, which approximately transla- Housing Development Intensity Index of the number of initiated dwellings per 1,000 citizens 75.6 9.0 8.6 Housing Development Intensity Index of the number of completed dwellings per 1,000 citizens 498.1 8.0 429.2 8.0 7.4 7.0 6.4 7.0 206.0 6.0 50.4 5.4 6.0 178.5 348.1 5.0 38.0 69.6 44.2 4.6 4.4 5.0 20.8 62.4 4.2 284.8 4.0 31.5 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.0 28.6 3.4 3.6 3.6 109.0 3.2 3.0 3.0 11.6 3.0 2.7 3.2 14.4 2.0 2.0 1,5 48.9 2.0 55.0 2.0 1.5 1.1 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 LV ES HU CZ EU 28 DE DK NL BE PL FR IT LV DK ES CZ HU NL DE BE PL FR AT Number of completed dwellings per 1,000 citizens Total number of completed dwellings (th.) Number of initiated dwellings per 1,000 citizens Total number of initiated dwellings (th.) Source: National Statistical Authorities, Euromonitor International, calculated by Deloitte Source: National Statistical Authorities, Euromonitor International, calculated by Deloitte 12 13
Property Index | 7th edition, September 2018 Property Index | 7th edition, September 2018 Housing Stock Translated to 1,000 citizens, Poland still In 2017, the value of the housing stock has the least saturated housing stock indicator amounted to 489.4 apartments compared to individual countries, despite per 1,000 citizens in terms of all European having recorded the greatest year-on-year Union countries. In aggregate, the number growth. In 2017, Poland’s housing stock of apartments in EU countries should be comprised almost 14.5 million apartments, in excess of 249.7 million, with Spain and which translates to 376 apartments per France having the largest housing stocks 1,000 citizens. in 2017. Spain tops the chart when the housing stock is translated to 1,000 citi- zens (549.7 apartments), while France is number one in absolute terms (34.8 million apartments). Housing Stock Number of dwellings per 1,000 citizens 25.59 600 41.97 34.82 549.7 5.41 2.65 4.94 507.0 518.2 7.74 4.43 500 3.89 489.4 476.4 461.8 465.5 450.5 451.9 440.9 14.45 400 376.0 300 200 100 0 PL AT NL HU DK CZ BE EU 28 DE FR ES Number of dwellings per 1,000 citizens Total number of dwellings (mln.) Source: National Statistical Authorities, Euromonitor International, calculated by Deloitte 14 15
Property Index | 7th edition, September 2018 Property Index | 7th edition, September 2018 Comparison of Residential Property Prices in Selected Countries and Cities This edition of Property Index covers data the chart below. The largest y-o-y diffe- from 14 European countries and 41 cities. rence affecting the property value was To harmonise all outcomes, dwelling prices recorded in the Czech Republic due to the are calculated in Euros, as such the price termination of monetary interventions in growth or fall is influenced by a change in April 2017. After this date the Czech crown exchange rates. is appreciating in the long run. Depreciation or appreciation of national currencies other than euro are shown in Euro Exchange Rate Changes, 31. 12. 2017 / 31. 12. 2016 (+%) = euro appreciation, (-%) = euro depreciation against a currency EUR/CZK -5.6% EUR/PLN -5.4% EUR/HUF 0.1% EUR/DKK 0.1% EUR/GBP 3.5% -6.0% -5.0% -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% Source: Yahoo Finance 16 17
Property Index | 7th edition, September 2018 Property Index | 7th edition, September 2018 Denmark 2,554 EUR/sq m 5.9% Average Transaction Price of a New Dwelling in Netherlands** 2,306 EUR/sq m Selected Countries 7.9% The year 2017 could be defined as a year with stabilised growth in terms of residential prop- Belgium erty prices. The highest price per sq m was 2,261 EUR/sq m United 2.0% observed again in the United Kingdom (4,397 Kingdom EUR/sq m) even despite the price decrease Poland 4,397 EUR/sq m (-5.0%) compared to the last year due to 1,321 EUR/sq m -5.0% British pound depreciation. However, in British 9.0% pound (excluding exchange rates) house prices increased in the UK. Such a high price shows Germany* a dominant and continuous position within the 3,242 EUR/sq m European residential market. 9.6% Czech Republic Conversely Hungary was placed on the tail of 2,162 EUR/sq m the ranking list in terms of the average trans- 8.4% action price (1,164 EUR/sq m). The highest price growth in 2017 was recorded again as in the last year in Germany, where the Austria bid price of new dwellings rose by +9.6%. The 2,553 EUR/sq m transaction price was in this case not available Hungary France -0,8% for Germany. Surprisingly, the second position 1,164 EUR/sq m was occupied by Poland with a price growth of 4,103 EUR/sq m 2.1% +9.0%. In the Czech Republic the transaction 1.2% price of new dwellings increased by 8.4%. Italy A relatively small y-o-y change was recorded in 2,334 EUR/sq m Austria, France and Italy. 9 surveyed countries -1.1% showed in 2017 a price increase and 3 coun- tries a price decrease. Average Transaction Price of the New Dwelling (EUR/sq m), 2017 Annual Change (%) < 0.0 % 0.0 % – 3 % 3.1 % – 6 % 6.1 % – 9 % < Spain 2,030 EUR/sq m 9.1 % < 5.0% * bid price ** older dwellings Source: National Statistical Authorities, Deloitte data calculations 18 19
Property Index | 7th edition, September 2018 Property Index | 7th edition, September 2018 Average Transaction Price of a New Dwelling (EUR/ sq m) and 2017/2016 change Average Transaction •• Except Hamburg all other 3 German cities (Munich, Berlin and Frankfurt) showed Vienna 3.5% 4,138 Price of a New Dwelling significant y-o-y growth (15% on average). AT Graz 0.8% 3,089 in Selected Cities •• Hungary occurred as an exception among Linz 2.1% 2,901 CEE countries, where prices of all observed As in previous editions, we compiled cities increased rapidly by 18% in average. Brussels 2.9% 3,187 a comparison of prices among the most BE Antwerp 0.9% 2,951 •• Debrecen in Hungary was for the third important European cities. Below are listed time in a row the cheapest city among Ghent 4.9% 2,913 key messages from our research. all observed cities with a price tag of Prague 9.7% 2,587 •• Inner London was again the most 1,080 EUR/sq m. The second cheapest CZ Brno 5.3% 2,052 expensive city among surveyed cities city in 2017 was Győr. Average dwelling with a price tag reaching 16,512 EUR/ price amounted in this city 1,142 EUR/ Ostrava 8.8% 1,299 sq m. Living outside of Inner London was sq m. If looking for a cheap living outside Berlin 13.4% 4,935 cheaper, however, still above average of Hungary, Łódź in Poland with a price Hamburg 2.6% 5,097 amounting to 6,841 EUR/sq m. of 1,186 EUR/sq m is a perfect place. DE Munich 15.4% 7,500 •• The second most expensive city Frankfurt 15.2% 5,300 after London was, similarly as in the previous year, inner Paris with a price at Copenhagen 0.3% Munich became for the first time in our 5,409 10,697 EUR/sq m, however, with a y-o-y DK Aarhus 1.8% 4,586 price decrease of -13.6%. The costs of Odense 8.1% 3,285 buying a dwelling in Marseille and Lyon research the third most expensive city Madrid 17.0% 3,923 were in 2017 much more affordable. ES Barcelona 5.0% 4,208 •• Munich became for the first time in our with an average price of 7 500 EUR/sq m, Valencia Paris (inside) 5.0% -13.6% 2,081 10,697 research the third most expensive city with an average price of 7,500 EUR/sq m, surpassing other large German cities. surpassing other large German cities. Lyon 3.8% 4,175 FR Marseille 2.1% 4,010 •• Usually the capital is also the most expensive city in its country. However, this Ile de France 0.3% 4,870 is not the case for some cities. Namely, Budapest 11.0% 1,643 Milan, Barcelona, Hamburg, Frankfurt and HU Debrecen 22.3% 1,080 the above-mentioned Munich are more Győr 20.6% 1,142 expensive than Rome, Madrid and Berlin. Milan -0.1% 3,609 •• Double digit price growth was recorded IT Rome -1.2% 3,370 predominantly in cities located in Germany, Netherlands, Poland and Hungary. Turin -0.4% 1,983 LV Riga -10.4% 1,621 Amsterdam 13.6% 4,634 NL* The Hague 17.6% 2,457 Rotterdam 11.1% 2,180 Warsaw 6.8% 1,847 Krakow 11.1% 1,592 PL Łódź 10.7% 1,186 Wrocław 9.2% 1,515 Lisbon 10.0% 3,004 PT Porto 8.7% 1,613 Inner London -0.2% 16,512 % Average Transaction Price of the New Dwelling – Annual change (%) UK Outer London -4.3% 6,841 Birmingham N/A 3,600 Average Transaction Price of a New Dwelling *older dwellings Source: Source: National Statistical Authorities, Deloitte data calculations 20 21
Property Index | 7th edition, September 2018 Property Index | 7th edition, September 2018 Comparison of the Main Cities to the Country Average (country average = 100%), 2017 The next section of Property Index focuses on a comparison of prices of the surveyed Properties in Inner AT Vienna Graz 121% 162% cities to their respective national averages: London were on •• Properties in Inner London were on Linz 114% average 376% of the national average and average 376% of the recorded therefore the largest difference. BE Brussels Antwerp 141% 131% •• In inner Paris it would cost more than national average and Gent 129% 2.5 times as much to buy an average apartment than in an average city in recorded therefore the CZ Prague Brno 95% 120% France. largest difference. •• Munich, Barcelona, Amsterdam and Ostrava 60% Copenhagen exceed the national averages by more than double. Berlin 152% •• Some cities from our survey recorded this Hamburg 157% DE year lower dwelling price than the national Munich 231% average. Namely: Birmingham, Łódź, Frankfurt 163% Rotterdam, Turin, Debrecen, Győr, Brno, Ostrava and Marseille. Copenhagen 212% DK Aarhus 180% Odense 129% Madrid 193% ES Barcelona 207% Valencia 103% Paris (inside) 261% Lyon 102% FR Marseille 98% Ile de France 119% Budapest 141% HU Győr 98% Debrecen 93% Milan 155% IT Rome 144% Turin 85% Amsterdam 201% NL* The Hague 107% Rotterdam 95% Warsaw 140% Krakow 121% PL Łódź 90% Wrocław 115% Inner London*** 376% UK Outer London 156% Comparison of the Main Cities to the Country Average in %, average transaction price of a new dwelling Birmingham 82% *older dwellings Source: Source: National Statistical Authorities, Deloitte data calculations 22 23
Property Index | 7th edition, September 2018 Property Index | 7th edition, September 2018 Average Transaction Price of the New Dwelling •• A moderate y-o-y decline in dwelling For better illustration we also dealt with Capitals 2017/ 2016 change (%) prices was recorded in Inner London a price development of transaction prices (-0.2%) and Rome (-1.2%). of the European capitals. Key results are: Paris (inside) •• The worst performing market was -13.6% •• Property prices were growing again unexpectedly Paris with a price decrease on most of the markets in 2017. Out of Riga of (-13.6%), whereby the main reason for the 14 capital cities where data were -10.4% the drop is a low number of residential available, only 4 saw a decrease in the Rome development projects compared to price compared to 2016. last year characterised by few luxury -1.2% •• Dwelling prices increased by 17%, projects. Inner London surprisingly, in Madrid which was the •• The second largest decline was observed -0.2% largest growth among all examined in Riga (-10.4%). capitals. Copenhagen 0.3% •• Double digit growth was also observed Brussels in Amsterdam (+13.6%), Berlin (+13.4%), 2.9% Budapest (+11.0%) and Lisbon (+10.0%). Vienna Data for Berlin confirms current dynamic trend in German property market during 3.5% 2017. Warsaw 6.8% Prague 9.7% Lisbon 10.0% Budapest 11.0% Berlin 13.4% Amsterdam* 13.6% Madrid 17.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% Source: National Statistical Authorities, Deloitte data calculations * older dwellings 24 25
26 0 5 10 15 20 25 25 Paris (inside) – FR Property Index | Inner London – UK 26.4 26.3 Austria (AT) Amsterdam – NL Belgium (BE) 18.4 Ile de France – FR Czech Republic (CZ) 18.1 7th edition, September 2018 Outer London – UK 18.1 Copenhagen – DK 17.9 Barcelona – ES France (FR) 17.5 Average Monthly Asking Rent per sq m in EUR, 2017 Germany (DE) Denmark (DK) Munich – DE Aarhus – DK 16.5 16.3 Madrid – ES 15.5 Italy (IT) Latvia (LV) Warsaw – PL 14.8 Hungary (HU) Rome – IT 13.4 Prague – CZ 13.1 Odense – DK 12.9 Poland (PL) Portugal (PT) Rotterdam – NL Netherlands (NL) Lyon – FR 12.3 12.2 Milan – IT 12.1 (UK) Birmingham – UK Spain (ES) 12.0 United Kingdom Frankfurt – DE 11.7 Marseille – FR 11.7 The Hague – NL 11.3 Wrocław – PL 11.1 Hamburg – DE 10.4 Riga – LV 10.0 Brussels – BE 9.9 Budapest – HU 9.8 Vienna – AT 9.6 Lisbon – PT 9.6 Berlin – DE 9.3 Antwerp – BE 9.2 Ghent – BE 9.1 Krakow – PL 8.7 Brno – CZ 8.6 Valencia – ES 8.2 Linz – AT 8.1 Graz – AT 8.1 Łódź – PL 7.8 Turin – IT 6.9 Property Index | Porto – PT 6.8 Debrecen – HU 6.5 Győr – HU 6.4 Ostrava – CZ 6.0 27 7th edition, September 2018
Property Index | 7th edition, September 2018 Property Index | 7th edition, September 2018 Last year we newly started to analyse, •• If you want to rent a dwelling in also data from the rental market. We still Amsterdam, you have to pay 18.4 EUR/ believe that rental housing forms a key sq m/month on average, which is the and very important part of the residential third highest value from our research. market and therefore we would like to •• The lowest average rent can be found provide you with the general outcomes of in Ostrava, where you need only our research: 6.0 EUR/sq m/month, followed by Győr •• A dwelling in the centre of Paris was (6.4 EUR/sq m/month). the most expensive for rent in 2017 in our research. The average monthly rent amounted 26.4 EUR/sq m. •• It is not a surprise that the second highest rent could be found in Inner London (26.3 EUR/sq m/month). London, together with Paris, had the same rent level practically. Average bid price of Average transaction Average bid price of Average transaction price new dwelling – price of new dwelling – older dwellings – of older dwellings – sqm sqm sqm sqm Czech Republic 2,938 2,162 1,426 1,295 Denmark 2,681 2,554 2,117 2,016 Germany 3,242 N/A 2,258 N/A Italy 2,547 2,334 2,142 1,871 Spain 2,137 2,030 1,784 1,655 Poland 1,376 1,321 1,286 1,137 Austria 3,691 2,553 2,636 1,724 France N/A 4,103 3,686 3,764 Belgium N/A 2,261 N/A 1,675 Netherlands N/A N/A 2,400 2,306 Hungary 1,222 1,164 710 676 United Kingdom N/A 4,397 N/A 3,317 28
Property Index | 7th edition, September 2018 Property Index | 7th edition, September 2018 Total Outstanding Residential Loans to Disposable Income of Households Ratio (in %, 2016) 250 198.6 200 178.1 150 98.9 100 89.9 77.8 75.1 69.9 66.9 45.4 Mortgage Markets 50 38.0 35.8 32.6 28.8 22.4 0 in Europe NL DK UK BE ES PT FR DE AT CZ PL IT LV HU Source: Hypostat 2017 Every year we also focus our attention on In fact all developed countries have been in the mortgage market. One of the most recent years facing a low interest rate envi- important indicators on the residential ronment globally. National central banks market is the indebtedness of the house- continue with their expansionary monetary Average Mortgage Rate (in %), 2017 holds, i.e. the proportion of the volume of policy to keep the interest rates at a low mortgage loans to household disposable level. Also the residential market is heavily income. Consequently the debt capacity influenced and the mortgage rates are 5% is one of the determinants of house price still moving on the lowest levels. However, 4.9% growth. economies have already hit bottom and we 4.6% see a slow growth in mortgage rates. •• The lowest level of indebtedness among 4% all surveying countries could be found in •• Portugal was the place where you could Hungary with 22.4% of residential debt to get a mortgage with the most favourable households disposable income. conditions of bank financing in 2017. The average mortgage rate fluctuated around 3% •• Countries with a low level of the 1.0%. 2.7% indebtedness proportion were Latvia, 2.3% 2.4% Italy, Poland, the Czech Republic and •• The second lowest level was observed 2% 2.0% 2.0% 2.1% 2.1% Austria, with total outstanding residential in France, where it was possible to find 1.9% 1.9% loans to households disposable income mortgage financing with a 1.5% interest 1.5% under 50%. rate. 1% 1.0% •• The highest level of indebtedness •• The least affordable mortgage financing could be found in the Netherlands could be found in Hungary with an and Denmark with residential debt to average interest rate of 4.9%. household disposable income of above 0% 100%. PT FR AT DE UK CZ IT BE DK NL ES PL HU Source: Deloitte data calculation 30 31
Property Index | 7th edition, September 2018 Property Index | 7th edition, September 2018 Annex: Comments on Austria The Austrian residential market exhibi- Belgium The residential real estate market Czech Republic The Czech residential market has been Residential Markets ted in 2017 a record high of transaction remained very active in 2017, with the riding the wave of strong demand and the volume with over 10 bn EUR (approx. number of transactions increasing 0.8% decreasing offer of new development pro- 50,000 apartments). The demand for own compared to 2016. Housing prices across jects and, thus, also apartments for sale. homes is still on a high level, triggered Belgium have increased moderately year- mainly by an ongoing population growth -on-year (+1.9%). The market is still heavily Last year was a very dynamic one in terms especially in the urban areas (2014–2018: supported by the historically low interest of the development of prices of residential Vienna 7.0%, Graz 2.0%, Linz 3.4%). Ano- rates and strong economic growth. property. In the last quarter of 2017, the ther factor that caused the strong demand average selling prices of apartments in Pra- for apartments are the heavy investment The market keeps showing healthy fun- gue and regional capitals amounted to CZK activities in the residential market mainly damentals. No oversupply is recorded 53,700 per sqm. This constitutes a year-on- driven by the still ongoing ECB’s loose and the financial position of households -year increase of 10.4%. During the whole monetary policy. remains overall robust with a debt-to-GDP of 2017, more than 27,000 apartments were ratio for Belgium that is still below the sold in Prague and the Czech regional capi- During 2017 the upper market segment, euro zone average. The main risks to the tals, amounting to nearly CZK 87 billion. This specifically the high-price segment and property market remain increasing interest is almost 1,500 apartments (5.8%) and CZK prime locations stabilised at a histori- rates and changes in property taxation. On 13 billion (17.7%) more than in the previous cally high price level. The demand for the short term however, interest rates are year. The figures demonstrate the Czech medium and lower priced dwellings, as expected to increase only slowly and no residential market’s continuing activity and well as properties in secondary locations significant changes in taxation are expec- growing price levels. increased sharply. This is mainly driven by ted, with elections coming up. a shortage of affordable living space in the The demand and prices on the residential central areas. market are strongly stimulated by these factors: continued lack of new apartments An Austrian particularity is the high share supplied to the market, culmination of the of rentals, which for Vienna is the highest impact of the regulatory measures of the in Europe with 77%. The total Austrian ren- Czech National Bank, prolonging legislative tal apartment stock increased by approxi- process, taxation of residential housing mately 40,000 units in 2017. The average and public sentiment. Especially in major rental level exhibited a significant increase Czech cities a substantial improvement of of 3.9% p.a. over the last four years. the supply or a change in trends cannot be expected on the development market in the Due to the large demand in the residential coming months and years. It is expected market the construction pipeline is well that the market will slow down and prices filled, which actually leads to a substan- will grow at a more moderate rate than in tial increase of development and con- 2017. Interest rates of mortgage loans will struction costs. continue to rise and the average mortgage loan value will continuously grow. 32 33
Property Index | 7th edition, September 2018 Property Index | 7th edition, September 2018 Denmark France Germany Hungary Italy Latvia In 2017, the Danish residential market 2017 was, again, a dynamic year for The German real estate market in 2017 was In Hungary, residential price increase In 2017, Italian GDP registered a growth of There has been a gradual growth in Riga faced high growth in continuation of the the residential market. The number of again performing very well. The continued slowed down to 13.8% in 2017 from last 1.5% in real terms compared to 0.9% regi- housing market, with a rise in both prices tendencies of previous years. This was fuel- transactions (existing house sales) conti- expansion in the German economy and the year’s 15.4%. Housing prices in real terms stered in 2016. In 2018 GDP is expected of dwellings and costs of construction led by steady GDP growth of 2%, primarily nued to increase to reach 968,000 units strong employment market in Germany are rose by 11.4% in 2017. The housing market to remain stable with a growth of around (partly due to wage increases). driven by exports, a consumer confidence (vs. 843,000 in 2016) at the end of 2017 only two reasons for the ongoing boom. is still characterised by strong regional 1.4%. The government deficit to GDP ratio level that almost recovered to the pre- (+15% compared to 2016). This dynamic heterogeneity. In 2017, the average square decreased from 2.5% in 2016 to 2.3% in As a result of the positive economic -crisis level, a decrease in unemployment is explained by multiple factors: first, the In 2017 the residential construction in Ger- meter prices observed in villages were 2017 and the government debt was 131.8% growth, more accessible crediting stra- rates from 4.2% to 4.1% and continuing low attractiveness of the mortgage interest many again lagged behind the sharp rise 25 per cent of the average prices recorded at the end of 2017, down by 0.2% with tegy from banks due to low interest rate interest rates. rates and the support plan for new hou- in the number of inhabitants. Even though in the capital, however, the attention is respect to the end of 2016. Household environment and active implementation of sing, in particular the buy-to-let scheme there was an increase in new building figu- tending to shift to an increasing degree expenditure and purchasing power incre- government housing guarantee program Transaction volume in the investment (Pinel), and second, the reform of the inte- res it is not sufficient. As a result the market from the capital to rural settlements. In ased slightly during the autumn months of ALTUM, customers increasingly choose to property market reached an all-time high rest-free loan (PTZ) still running for 4 years. situation of residential housing at the top Budapest the number of transactions 2017. obtain more expensive dwelling than they of EUR 12bn where cities like Copenhagen, locations is still fraught. started to decline and while in 2015 house have been to date. This reflects the incre- Aarhus and Odense played the biggest Following this trend, the number of mortg- prices rose by 26.8 per cent, in 2016 and Consumption has continued to expand in ased demand for city centre apartments roles followed by other Danish cities. The age credit granted to citizens continued to The 2017 rent for newly-built flats averages 2017 they were up 23.6 and 13.3 per cent, line with the previous year’s performance. and a 16% greater activity in the new high increase in volume is approx. EUR 3bn increase in 2017 to reach EUR 175bn (excl. between EUR 12 and 18 per sqm and EUR respectively. The unemployment rate slightly decreased dwellings market, compared to 2016. The higher than the pre-crisis level of EUR 9bn. refinancing). Despite a slight increase in 16 to 24 is demanded in the prime seg- in 2017, from 11.7% in 2016 to 11.2% in number of started and completed dwe- borrowing rates, the increase in mortgage ment. As in previous years, Munich is by far The more than 5 per cent growth in house- 2017. The Bank of Italy forecasts a favou- llings increased in 2017 as well. These trends are expected to continue in granted is linked to an increased purcha- the most expensive German location. By holds‘ disposable real income, the almost rable economic trend also in 2018, 2019 2018, although at a slower pace, leading to sing power and solvency of French hou- contrast, Berlin and Cologne are the most 40 per cent rise of new housing loans, the and 2020 with a decrease of the rate of Also, customers increasingly choose pri- high transaction volume, slightly decre- seholds, driven by low mortgage interest reasonable top locations from a German continued decline in unemployment and unemployment by around 0.2% per year. vate houses built within the last five years, asing/neutral price changes and slightly rates. Indeed, the average acquisition costs tenant’s perspective. rising savings resulting from the vigorous which they believe are more cost-efficient increasing/neutral interest rates. is 15% to 20% lower than in 2011–2012. wage outflow suggest that demand will The real estate market is stable but than apartments of more than 100 m2. Despite the intensive rent rises in recent remain robust. expected to improve during 2018 especi- Furthermore, the average price of older Regarding the construction market, the years, Germany (not even Munich) is not ally in the residential sector and not just series type dwellings has grown at 7.21% upswing started in 2015 continues with expensive compared with other large Supply side of the housing market was limited to the main conurbations of Rome in 2017. 498,100 building permits authorised European cities (such as London, Zürich or marked by further growth in 2017, appro- and Milan. The number of transactions in in 2017, barely in line with the government’s Dublin). ximately 38,000 new construction permits residential real estate market in 2017 was In the short-term lease market, usually objective of 500,000 units. However, the were issued and almost 14,400 new homes around 542,500, increasing by around 3% 2–3 bedroom rental apartments were new dwellings‘ stock is increasing slightly. were completed, which represents a 20% compared to 2016. This figure is expected predominantly sought by students in Riga This increase is not enough because it and 44% growth respectively. However, the to increase further in 2018 as consumer centre. Apartment rental fees in residential represents only 9,4 months of commercia- number of new homes relative to the stock confidence and access to credit increase. district were 10–30% lower than in the city lisation (11.4 months in 2016). of dwellings is merely 0.3 per cent per centre. In a growing market context, we still note annum, which is extremely low in a regio- a lack of offer. We also note that prices are nal comparison. As to outer Riga dwellings, majority of stable and it shows that the market has clients were looking for already completed reached its limits in terms of prices. Therefore, housing market fundamentals houses with a modern floor plan, which imply a further upturn, but frictions on the were scarce. Pricewise, the French markets are his- supply side are hindering a healthy incre- torically driven by a major gap between ase in home construction. With respect to Paris and the regional towns. For instance, the price level, house prices may continue Marseille, Lyon and Lille show the average to rise in 2018. price per sqm circa two times lower than Paris. 34 35
Property Index | 7th edition, September 2018 Property Index | 7th edition, September 2018 Netherlands Poland Portugal Spain United Kingdom In 2017 the Dutch residential market was As expected, 2017 turned out to be another launched to enable low income families to Throughout 2017, the residential market Spain was one of Europe’s locomotives In 2017, the UK experienced another year characterised by a large housing shortage, record-breaking year in terms of transac- rent flats in buildings developed and owned remained highly dynamic. Similar to the for economic growth during 2017 and of rising residential prices, continuing the especially in the densely populated areas. tion volume on the residential market as by governmental entities with fixed, low rent previous year, this dynamic was most felt forecasts place Spain as one of the leading upward trend. The continuation in house During the year more than 62 thousand well as in development of new dwellings. We rates and an option to buy ownership of the in the city centre of Lisbon and Cascais economies within the EU during at least price growth has largely been attributed dwellings were added to the housing mar- observe continuously strong demand and flats. The first months of the programme Coastal zone. the next three years. Despite the still high to the availability of finance and the low ket, the highest number since 2009. Howe- increase in prices on residential market on provide ambiguous picture due to lower unemployment rate (16.4%) the country interest rate level equating to low borrowing ver, the number of completed dwellings the six largest markets in Poland (Warsaw, than planned number of new developed Tourism and, more specifically local accom- is generating employments steadily. This costs. Fundamentally the market has expe- is still 20% below the pre-crisis period Kraków, Wrocław, Poznań, Łódź and flats, however, the long-term impact of the modation establishments, have now an recovery still shows weaknesses since sala- rienced a structural change where London’s and not sufficient to solve the shortage Gdańsk). There were approximately 72.8k programme on residential market remains unprecedented impact on residential mar- ries have decreased by 0.6% (2017 vs 2016) house price growth has fallen behind that on the housing market. Due to the lack of new residential units sold in comparison unclear and could potentially lower the ket, since their levels represent the quality mostly due to the creation of temporary of the rest of the UK, where the prime cen- sufficient developments, both property to app. 61,600 sold in 2016 (increase by over demand for cheaper dwellings. of life and value of real estate in Portugal. and low-quality employment. tral London stock has been hit the hardest. and rental prices have increased significa- 15%). Highest demand could be observed Demand for housing across the country ntly over the year. The average transaction in Q1 and Q4 2017 at levels of 18,800 and The remarkably low interest rates existing Additionally, the establishment of foreign The residential market continues to evolve persists to outstrip supply further increa- price of residential properties increa- 18,900, respectively. Last year high demand on the market for a long time (meaning communities whether investors or citizens, at two different rates. The main Spanish sing pressure on prices. sed with almost 10%, while the average for dwellings was a result of continuous cheap mortgages and unprofitable bank who have decided to live and invest in cities (Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia, Bilbao, monthly rent increased at 3%. Especially growth of Poland’s economy including a deposits) favours demand for dwelllings Portugal, are factors that have positively Seville, Malaga or Alicante) as well as the densely populated areas such as Almere, very low unemployment rate, rising average financed both by cash as well as mortgage. impacted the level of external demand. main coastal destinations are witnessing Rotterdam and Amsterdam showed major salary, stable and low interest rates. In fact, despite a negative impact of new Residential assets registered an increase of a strong demand, significant price increases increases. regulations introduced at the beginning of almost 60,000 transactions between 2011 and a strong development activity. On the Notably high increase of transaction prices 2016 (amended Recommendation S int- and 2017 in Portugal, according to the Nati- other hand, the inland areas of the country The shortage on the Dutch residential mar- in comparison with 2016 (9.0% for new roducing a minimum of 20% own contri- onal Statistics Institute. still show flat or even negative activity rates. ket is also visible in the transaction volume dwellings, 11.6% for older ones) partially bution), the value of the newly granted In this regard, foreigners demand has been of residential properties. In the last quarter resulted from the rise of material and mortgages increased in 2017 by 5.62% in To answer to this massive international key; Purchases made by foreigners have of 2017, the market saw a 6% decline in labour costs but also indicates a conside- comparison to 2016. flow, luxury residential developments grown steadily and represent about 20% of the number of transactions compared to rable supply shortage in the recent year. emerge in these areas and prices tend all transactions made during 2017. Transac- last year, which is the first decline since 2017 was another exceptional year on the to be increasingly high (median transac- tions made by foreigners are mostly focu- the start of the crisis. In addition, there In addition, demand was boosted in the Polish real estate market including residen- tion price, old and new apartments, of sed on the Mediterranean coastline and the was a decrease in the number of houses recent years by two governmental pro- tial sector but there is still some uncer- 2,438 EUR/sq m in Q4 2017 in Lisbon city, islands (Balearic and Canary Islands). for sale. In Q4 2017, there were 36% fewer grammes: ”MdM“ (“Flat for young people“) tainty due to possible legislation changes, an increase of 18% when compared to residential properties for sale compared to which financially supported people under although no major issues in the residential Q4 2016. In Q1 2018, luxury areas such as During 2017, 48,900 new homes were a year before. The decrease was strongest 35 purchasing new dwellings and ”Rodzina market are anticipated in 2018. Avenida da Liberdade, reached an average delivered to the market, notably above the in the market for relatively small houses, 500+“ (“Family 500+“) which increased transaction price of 6,532 EUR/sq m), 34,400 homes delivered in 2016, but far which affected first time home owners. purchasing power of low income families. forcing the relocation of the Portuguese from the record (and unsustainable) figures ”MdM“ programme was closed in Q1 2018 people to the surrounding areas of the city. of 2007 (about 600,000). 2017 is therefore and replaced with new initiative ”Mieszkanie the first year of recovery in terms of the Plus“ (“Apartment Plus“). The latter one was In order to re-establish the balance in the number of completed dwellings since the different areas of the cities, where gap pri- start of the crisis in 2008. On the other ces are huge, a rethinking of the public and hand, Construction Permits issued for new private policies to accommodate this new dwellings have grown constantly since 2014 demand to the needs of the Portuguese at a yearly 30% (CAGR 14–17). Transaction population is required. prices grew during 2017 along the country but especially in Spain’s main cities and the coast. This has been the result of a lack of new product within the cities, coupled with a significant increase in rental prices leading to higher returns, together with a proliferation of touristic apartments in the city centres. 36 37
Property Index | 7th edition, September 2018 Property Index | 7th edition, September 2018 Contacts Authors Residential Market United Kingdom Denmark Baltics states Chris Baldwin Tinus Bang Christensen Valters Tucs +44 7771 804772 +45 30 93 44 63 +37 167 074 143 chbaldwin@deloitte.co.uk tchristensen@deloitte.dk vtucs@deloittece.com Netherlands Paul Meulenberg +31 882 881 982 pmeulenberg@deloitte.nl Miroslav Linhart Petr Hána Vojtěch Petrík Poland Partner Senior Manager Senior Consultant Belgium Maciej Krasoń Real Estate & Construction Real Estate & Construction Real Estate & Construction Frédéric Sohet +48 225 110 360 +420 737 235 553 +420 731 638 268 +420 739 071 649 +32 263 949 51 mkrason@deloittece.com mlinhart@deloittece.com phana@deloittece.com vpetrik@deloittece.com fsohet@deloitte.com France Laure Silvestre-Siaz Czech Republic +33 155 612 171 Miroslav Linhart Economic development in Europe lsilvestresiaz@deloitte.fr +420 737 235 553 mlinhart@deloittece.com Portugal Jorge Sousa Marrão +351 210 422 500 jmarrao@deloitte.pt Hungary Gabor Kohari +361 428 620 4 Spain gkohari@deloittece.com Javier Parada +34 915 145 000 japarada@deloitte.es David Marek Director Italy Germany Austria Financial Advisory Elena Vistarini Michael Mueller Alexander Hohendanner +420 606 656 599 +39 028 332 512 2 +49 892 903 684 28 +43 153 700 270 0 dmarek@deloittece.com evistarini@deloitte.it mmueller@deloitte.de ahohendanner@deloitte.at 38 39
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