Searching NK fitness landscapes: On the trade off between speed and quality in complex problem solving - Sylvie Geisendorf section environmental ...
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papers on agent-based economics nr 7 Searching NK fitness landscapes: On the trade off between speed and quality in complex problem solving Sylvie Geisendorf section environmental and innovation economics university of kassel
papers on agent-based economics nr 7 Abstract The complexity of problems is often too high for people or organizations, having to solve them, to do so in an optimal way. In order to cope with such problems, either the search space has to be decomposed, or it has to be searched by random trial and error processes. Kauffman´s NK model offers a way to depict such problem space decompositions and the search for solutions in them. However, papers on the effect of different decompositions on solution quality come to differing conclusions as to the advantages or disadvantages of incorrect modularization assumptions. The current paper thus examines the results of more empirically based search strategies. Some trade offs become visible, but the sometimes observed initial advantage of a too deep modularization could not be confirmed. Keywords: NK-model, search processes, complexity reduction, modularity, agent-based modelling 2
papers on agent-based economics nr 7 I. Introduction Going back to the work of Simon (1969, 1983), it has been recognized that the complexity of problems is often too high for people or organizations, having to solve them, to do so in an optimal way. Simon further suggests that in order to cope with such problems, agents need to reduce problem complexity by decomposing the search space; an insight that is backed by psychological findings on the organization of human knowledge and problem solving (Beckenbach, 2005). Such a reduction is achievable by different procedures, e.g. by concentrating on only one of several criteria the solution has to fulfil, by stopping search, once a satisfactory level has been reached, or by following fixed decision routines. All these possibilities however, are not directly connected with the structure of the problem itself. There is another feature of complex problems, pointed out by Simon, but mostly overlooked in modelling of bounded rationality in economics. Solutions and artefacts are themselves decomposable to a certain degree, where decomposability means that a change in one part doesn’t affect the performance of other parts. Some authors however, tried to depict the degree of decomposability of economic artefacts or problems and of the strategies to solve them, and investigated, how the decomposition of the problem influences the kinds of attainable solutions (Marengo/Dosi 2005, Siggelkow/Rivkin 2006), how different search strategies perform on more or less connected landscapes (Levinthal 1997, Frenken/Valente 2002, Ethiraj/Levinthal 2004), and mainly how an over- or underestimation of the decomposability affects possible solutions (Strumsky/Lobo 2002, Siggelkow/Levinthal 2003, Marengo/Dosi 2005, Siggelkow/Rivkin 2006). The basis for such analyses is the NK-model, developed by Kauffmann (1993), with which varying degrees of decomposability of the problem space can be modelled. N stands for the number of components of an artefact or strategy and K for the intensity of connections among them.1 A central result of such analyses concerns the effects of over- and underestimations of the problem’s decomposability on the attainable solutions. Assumingly, search in a complex problem landscape should be decomposed in the same way as the problem or artefact itself. But due to their bounded rationality, the deciding agents make decomposition mistakes. If such deviations from the actual connectedness of the problem occur, agents might e.g. try to optimize a seemingly independent module and be surprised by the effects on other parts of the solution. What is more, they might not even notice them, because they only occur in the final assembly of a product, composed of parts from different suppliers. On the other hand it is 1 K = 0 thus reflects a case of full decomposability, whereas higher K values indicate that the performance of the elements is influenced by changes of one or several other elements. 3
papers on agent-based economics nr 7 obvious that a high modularization of the search space reduces the number of options to be tested and thus search time and costs considerably, which might constitute an advantage.2 The analysis of the actual influence of an over- or underestimation of the problem’s decomposability on the attainable solutions is thus an important question – all the more, if the degree of decomposition of a product or organizational structure can be chosen deliberately. But modelling results comprising this aspect come to different conclusions. Marengo/Dosi (2005) applied the NK-model to depict how the degree of decentralization of industrial organizations determines their problem solving capacities. A central result is a trade-off between the speed and quality of better solutions. If search is decomposed stronger than the actual problem, the speed with which solution quality increases is initially higher. Only after a long time, this search mode locks in to an inferior local maximum and is overtaken by a search mode based on the correct decomposition that eventually reaches the global optimum. This result implies that it is by no means evident, that a correct decomposition of the search space is to be preferred, because a prolonged search can be too time consuming or costly. However, the work of Levinthal (1997) and Ethiraj/Levinthal (2004) suggests this is not the case, as in their model a correct decomposition is always advantageous. The divergence of these results indicates that the observed trade-off is not robust against a variation of the search strategy. As the applied search algorithms were both borrowed from NK resp. Genetic Algorithm practice, but not based on observations about how economic agents perform search in complex problem landscapes, the question arises, if an over-reduction of search space is actually advantageous in empirical contexts. The current paper attempts to investigate this question. It will examine the problem solving capacity of more empirically based strategies of problem decomposition. As already been proposed by Beckenbach (2005), the work of Fleming/Sorenson (2003) on the modularity of technological innovations, based on US patent data, and the correspondence of the search strategies they identified with psychological findings on human problem solving, as reported in Beckenbach, provide a good background for such an analysis. The paper will thus implement search strategies resembling Fleming/Sorenson´s findings and test their problem solving capacities for different degrees of connectedness of an exemplary problem. It is to be expected that the ideal problem decomposition depends on the details of the applied search procedure and is thus not a question that can be decided on the basis of ad hoc specifications. 2 Assume a product composed of 10 input factors, having two possible states each. If the performance of each of the factors depends on all other factors (no decomposability), there are 210 = 1024 design possibilities. If the same product is decomposable into two modules of 5 factors, the search space is reduced to 25 + 25 = 64. 4
papers on agent-based economics nr 7 II. Depicting complex problem solving by NK and NK-related fitness landscapes Assume that a problem can be represented as a binary string, containing the characteristics of the problem’s elements. One specific binary string then constitutes the optimal solution to a given problem, whereas other, differing strings constitute possible solutions deviating more or less significantly from the optimal one. Each time, one of the binary values of the constituting elements is switched we get another solution. The performance of different solutions is measured by attributing fitness values to the individual elements and aggregating them to the string’s fitness. Fitness values ranging from 0 to 1 are attributed randomly to the elements and the string’s fitness is calculated by adding the individual values and dividing them by the number of elements. Regardless of its length, each string thus receives a fitness value between 0 and 1. An element being connected to another now means that the fitness of the former changes if the binary value of the latter is switched and vice versa.3 In Kauffman´s NK model, connections between elements of a problem (representing a product, a strategy or an organizational structure) are spread arbitrarily (Kauffman 1993). A K value of 2 for a number of elements N = 8 might e.g. result in the following connective structure: 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 With such an arbitrary spread of a given number of connections between the elements, even low K values can lead to largely connected structures. Modelling the problem space following that procedure thus poses problems to depict perfect or even near decomposability. A problem would be perfectly decomposable, if it consisted of separable components (or modules), with only internal connections among the module’s elements: 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 Modularization reduces the search space considerably. If a solution composed of 12 elements can be divided into 3 modules, and this structure is known to the searching agents, instead of 3 One directional dependency is also possible, but not assumed here. 5
papers on agent-based economics nr 7 testing all 2N = 4096 possibilities to find the optimal solution, each module can be optimized separately. For each module there are only 2n = 16 solutions and thus a total of 2n x m = 48 tests to perform in order to optimize the whole string. As papers like Ethiraj/Levinthal (2004) or Marengo/Dosi (2005) are concerned with the effect of over- and under-estimations of module sizes in problem solving, they do not use the original randomly connected NK landscape, proposed by Kauffman, but pre-designed landscapes with defined nearly decomposable modules. Near decomposability means that connection intensity inside a given module is much stronger than with elements outside the module. Ethiraj/Levinthal assumed such nearly decomposable modules by connecting the last element of each module with the first one of the next module. Otherwise, each element inside a module was connected with all the other module’s elements Ethiraj/Levinthal (2004). Search strategies in NK or related fitness landscapes are algorithms, repeatedly performing a given procedure, like arbitrarily changing one element of the search string and keeping the resulting string, if its fitness value is higher than the one of the former solution. Thus far, in NK-related literature only a few search strategies have been tested for their performance and characteristics. Marengo/Dosi (2005) tested the performance of parallel one or several bit mutations (here called switches) inside the assumed modules. Ethiraj/Levinthal (2004) compared different strategies of local search and recombination. Local search corresponded to the switch of one element inside a module and the acceptance of the solution if module fitness improved by it. String fitness can decrease for this procedure. Recombination draws on exchange between firms and exchanges whole modules of a firm’s strategy against the corresponding module of another firm, if the potential exchange module’s fitness is higher than the former module’s one. Selection for such exchange modules has been designed on modular and firm level. Firm selection chooses a random module of another firm, with a higher likelihood of copying from a good performer. Module selection compares fitness directly on module level and chooses to exchange a module if another firm offers a better performing one. The search procedures, chosen in these two papers, are quite dissimilar in several respects. Marengo/Dosi (2005) performed a complete parallel search over all possible local changes of a given solution, which constitutes more of a theoretical analysis than the representation of an empirical search strategy. For large problem landscapes, a complete evaluation, even of only one step variations will not be possible. Ethiraj/Levinthal (2004) on the other hand, introduced inter-firm exchange, which also constitutes a form of parallelism, but restricts it to a limited 6
papers on agent-based economics nr 7 number of firms and thus solutions (10 or 100). Additionally the way in which the basic fitness landscape has been formulated, differs between the two papers. A comparison of their results is therefore not easily possible. This is a little unfortunate, because the results differ in an important respect. Marengo/Dosi (2005) found a trade-off between the speed and quality of better solutions for different search strategies. In their paper, an under-estimation of module size led to initially quickly increasing solution quality, but an eventual lock in to an inferior local maximum, whereas search with the correct module size eventually reaches the global optimum, but takes a long time to overtake the suboptimal search strategy. If time and search costs are considered, this trade-off might thus indicate that over-decomposition of the search space is to be preferred. However, Levinthal (1997) and Ethiraj/Levinthal (2004) suggest, this is not the case, as in their model a correct decomposition is always advantageous. As the respective search algorithms have been designed on the basis of NK (Marengo/Dosi 2005) and Genetic Algorithm (Ethiraj/Levinthal 2004) practice, the empirical relevance of the diverging results can not be assessed easily. The current paper therefore investigates whether the observed trade-off also occurs for more empirically based search strategies. In the following model, innovative search will thus be based on findings by Fleming/Sorenson (2003) on strategies for product innovation, derived from US patent data, as already been proposed by Beckenbach (2005). III. The model III.1. The basic fitness landscape Similar, but not exactly like for Ethiraj/Levinthal (2004), the fitness landscape deviates from the original NK model. The original correlation structure from NK models can not be used to depict decomposable problems. As the current paper attempts to investigate the effect of over- and under-modularized search strategies on the quality of solutions, it will assume perfectly decomposable problems. For a given number N = 12 of elements per binary string, different degrees of modularization m = {2, 3, 4} are tested, where m = 2 means that the string is composed of 2 independent modules with n = 6 elements each. For simplicity, inside each module, all elements are connected. The number of connections k thus equals the number of elements inside each module n minus one. For N = 12 and m = 3, n = 4 and k = 3 result: 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 7
papers on agent-based economics nr 7 For N = 12 2N = 4096 solutions exist. Each of them has a different performance, representing success indicators, like different product qualities or differing efficiencies of organizational structures. The basic fitness landscape of the model, containing all 2N potential solutions is generated by attributing randomly distributed fitness values between 0 and 1 to each element of an exemplary starting string and changing an element’s fitness, each time the binary value of a connected element is switched. As long as only elements of unrelated modules are switched, the fitness remains unchanged. A switch of the second element therefore, would change the fitness values of elements 1 through 4, but not of elements 5 through 12. Afterwards these element fitness values can be aggregated to module and string fitness. One of the 2N strings now represents the best solution to the given problem, indicated by its having the highest attainable fitness. As the landscape is generated randomly, this highest value varies. In the following simulations, this random influence will be eliminated by comparing the average performances over 100 random landscapes. III.2. The search strategies The invention and development of new products is a typical example of complex problem solving and the advantages and disadvantages of modularization. Dividing a product into several independent components, each of which can be developed independently, reduces search effort, but tends to lead to suboptimal overall solutions, because it prevents an entire redesign of the whole product. Considering the whole, on the other hand, allows for occasional breakthroughs, but can be costly and time consuming, because the innovators have to put up with long periods of unsuccessful experimentation. Fleming/Sorenson (2003) investigated the advantages and disadvantages of corresponding strategies by examining US patent data on technological innovations of more than 200 years. Using technological subclasses and establishing their in- or interdependence by analysing how they had been combined, Fleming/Sorenson could distinguish between more or less coupled product architectures. Thereafter they studied the influence of component connectivity on innovative success in the given product classes. As a result they identified three types of innovative strategies used by US firms: A modular strategy, in which products are decomposed to a certain degree and the components are improved independently, considering only component performance. 8
papers on agent-based economics nr 7 A Coupled strategy with Shotgun Sampling, where the whole product’s performance is considered and improvements are attempted by a large number of relatively uninformed trial and error experiments. A Coupled strategy with Mapped Searching, also considering the whole product, but trying to reduce uncertainty about its decomposition by scientific research. Improvements are then attempted on the basis of acquired knowledge. For the model presented in this paper, these findings have been implemented as follows. All strategies are individual search procedures. They start with an arbitrary solution drawn from the set of all 4096 possible solutions and try to improve it by one of the following procedures: Shotgun Sampling: The decomposition of the problem is not considered. Either one (one-bit-Shotgun Sampling) or several (multiple-bit Shotgun Sampling) arbitrarily chosen elements of the search string are varied. Afterwards the performance of the resulting string is assessed. If it has improved in relation to the former solution it substitutes it. Modular Search: Unaware of the actual problem decomposition, but wanting to reduce search effort, this strategy modularizes the search space by its own accord. After assuming a degree of modularization, it arbitrarily changes one or several elements in a randomly chosen module. If the performance of the module increases, the variation is kept. Mapped Search: Mapped Search tries to establish an understanding of the problem’s decomposition. It performs tests to derive the correct module size and develops module improvements. First it is decided in each time step whether to invest in research or improvements (with 0.5/0.5 probability for both).4 In research mode, initially a module size is assumed and one element inside the assumed module is switched. Then one of two possible tests is performed with equal probabilities: The inner-test inspects all elements inside the assumed module. If at least one of their fitness values did not change (as it should, if it is part of the same module as the switched element), Mapped Search assumes that 4 Note that this choice has been included to take the costs of scientific research into account. As Mapped Search is the most arduous procedure, it would be more costly to perform both search modes in one time step. As costs are not included explicitly in the model, this is reflected in time requirements. Also, the information provided to the research mode is more detailed than for all the other strategies, because the fitness contributions of all elements of the searched module are investigated individually. Such a research would be more costly, which is a second reason to slow the search down, by only allowing for either research or improvement in one time step. 9
papers on agent-based economics nr 7 the module size was chosen to large and reduces it to the next smaller size. The outer-test inspects the fitness of all other supposed modules and assumes that module size was chosen to small, if one of these has changed unexpectedly. It then augments the assumed module size. The thus established module size is kept for further investigations. In improvement mode, Mapped Search performs Modular Search as described above, but it does so, on increasingly better representations of the actual module size. IV. Model results IV.1. Trade-off between speed and quality of better solutions The trade-off between initial adaptation speed of under-modularized search and long term quality of perfectly modularized solutions, found by Marengo/Dosi (2005), could not be confirmed with the current model. Assuming too small sizes of n was always disadvantageous in the model. The model of the current paper thus confirms the results of Ethiraj/Levinthal (2004) in this respect, although not having performed parallel search, as they did (fig. 1). Shotgun correctMod = 4 Mapped Search Performance Multi Bit 0.75 Shotgun modSize = 6 One Bit 0.7 0.65 modSize = 3 modSize = 2 0.6 0.55 modSize = 12 modSize = 1 0.5 t 20 40 60 80 100 Fig. 1: Shotgun Sampling, Mapped Search and 6 Modular Search procedures in an n=4 fitness landscape 10
papers on agent-based economics nr 7 In contrast, there is even a slight trade-off observable in exactly the other direction. For a brief initial period, the un-modularized strategies of one bit Shotgun Sampling and an assumed module size of 12 for Modular Search (thus comprising all elements in only one “module”) perform slightly better than the correct modularization. It might be assumed that there is a simple reason for this lack of an initial advantage of over- modularization. The Marengo/Dosi algorithm seems to be more intelligent, in that it only puts new solutions to an external test. Among all possible experiments, it only tests new variations, not yet tried out. It thus possesses some sort of memory, guaranteeing that only new module constellations are tested.5 As modularization reduces the search space considerably, it seems straightforward to assume, that smaller than optimal modules can be improved faster, which might also lead to initially quicker advances of the whole solution. The algorithm of the current paper performs on a trial and error basis and is not endowed with the ability to check for double trials, nor seem the algorithms of Ethiraj/Levinthal. They are thus loosing time in repeating trials. Therefore, it shall now be tested, whether this additional divergence of the search procedures accounts for the difference in results. Fig. 2 shows the results for an altered Modular ONLY NEW Search, where all tested element constellations for each module are memorized. As long as new combinations are possible, the algorithm tests them.6 Once all possible variants of a given module have been tested, it keeps its last solution. Such a search can be assumed to confirm Marengo/Dosi´s results, where over-modularized search is initially more successful, but also gets stuck earlier in local optima, because it stops experimenting with a module, once it seems to have been optimized. Note however, that no actual optimization might have been realized if the experiments operated on wrong module sizes. Changes in other assumed modules, the elements of which are actually connected with elements of the test module might have altered the functionality of the test module. Fig. 2 shows that the expected trade-off still not emerges. As the assumed module sizes for modSize = 1, 2 and 3 are too small, changes in parts of the string often affect other parts of it in an unintended way. Prohibiting trying the same constellation twice, is thus a less promising strategy than it seems at first glance. It prevents the search procedure from reacting to changed requirements, provoked by changes in other parts of the whole product or strategy. Interestingly, the short initial advantage of under-modularization is more pronounced 5 Note however, that this does not imply that a once switched allele can not be switched a second time. A switch of one particular element inside an assumed module can be made several times, if at least one other element differs from earlier times the same switch has been attempted. 6 If e.g. the assumed module size is 3, and the constellations {{0, 0, 0}, {0, 0, 1}, {0, 1, 1}, {0, 1, 0}, {1, 0, 0}, {1, 0, 1}} have already been tried, only {1, 1, 0} and {1, 1, 1} can be tested in subsequent periods. 11
papers on agent-based economics nr 7 for the altered search procedure. As fig. 2 shows, modSize = 12 and 6 are at an advantage for the first 9 periods. correctMod = 4 Performance 0.75 0.7 modSize = 6 0.65 modSize = 3 modSize = 2 0.6 0.55 modSize = 12 modSize = 1 0.5 t 20 40 60 80 100 Fig. 2: 6 Modular ONLY NEW Search procedures in an n=4 fitness landscape The same advantage for under-modularization shows, if the problem can be completely separated into its elements (correctMod = 1). Concentrating on the whole solution is also initially quicker. The reason for this observation is straightforward. The search modus for the correct modularization picks one module at random and changes one or several random elements of it. If the module only contains one element, only one element can be switched at a time. Searching over the whole problem however, allows for several switches at a time. Although each changed element influences the fitness contributions of all the others, there is a brief initial period in which the summed performance can rise fast, due to the larger changes by parallel switches. But there are two other trade-off effects observable in the results. One is a clear initial advantage of Shotgun Sampling over Mapped Search, which later overtakes to slowly attain the global maximum, whereas Shotgun Sampling locks in at an inferior level. Shotgun Sampling is an easy way to explore different parts of the whole search space, which accounts for its initial success. However, if it only allows for immediately beneficial changes (which also is important for its initial success), it sooner or later gets stuck in a local maximum. Mapped Search on the other hand, can explore the whole search space, by consecutively 12
papers on agent-based economics nr 7 reducing it to relevant regions (fig. 3). Establishing these regions takes time, but eventually the optimal solution is found. Performance 0.75 Mapped Search 0.7 Shotgun 0.65 0.6 0.55 0.5 t 20 40 60 80 100 Fig. 3: Shotgun Sampling and Mapped Search in an n=4 fitness landscape The second trade-off effect concerns the difference between one and multi bit Shotgun Sampling, which – astonishingly – is not considerable and changes two times. Initially multi bit Shotgun Sampling is quicker in finding better solutions, but it is soon overtaken by the one bit variant. After some time however, the performance changes again, because the one bit variant gets stuck sooner in a local optimum (fig. 4). Performance 0.75 Shotgun One Bit 0.7 0.65 0.6 Shotgun Multi Bit 0.55 0.5 t 20 40 60 80 100 Fig. 4: One bit and multi bit Shotgun Sampling in an n=4 fitness landscape 13
papers on agent-based economics nr 7 IV.2. Further results Apart from the observed trade-off effects between speed and quality of search solutions, one other observation shall be pointed out. All the above results were obtained with an N = 12 landscape with an ideal decomposition into 3 modules. Additionally it has been investigated whether the results are robust against a variation of this ideal decomposition. Therefore, ideal decompositions into 2 and 4 modules have been tested. While the main observation of the constant superiority of a correctly modularized over an over-modularized search space remains intact, the initial advantage of under-modularized search becomes slightly more discernable for the state space with more modules (m = 4). A second interesting observation concerns the divergence of the search strategies performance. The more, the state space is divided into modules, the less divergence can be observed between different strategies performance (compare modularizations of the problem space ranging from m = 2 to m = 4 in fig. 5). Performance Performance Performance 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.5 0.5 0.5 t t t 20 40 60 80 100 20 40 60 80 100 20 40 60 80 100 Fig. 5: Divergence of strategy performance for problem spaces with 2, 3 and 4 modules V. Conclusions The decomposition of search problems into more or less separable modules or independent decision units is a necessary and useful strategy to cope with complex problems in economics, like product design, management strategy or inner firm organization. Psychological findings (Beckenbach 2005) as well as empirical studies on product decomposition (Fleming/Sorenson 2003) back this insight. NK models, developed by Kauffman (1993) and related modularization models can serve to depict corresponding problem and search spaces. However, the correct decomposition of complex problems is no evident task. If the structure of the whole product or strategy is not entirely understood, assumptions about connections among its constituting elements and about separable sub-units may be erroneous. Thus, the question arises, how an over- or under-estimation of the actual decomposition of the problem affects solution quality. Theoretical studies on these effects come to differing results. Particularly, they diverged as to the existence of a trade-off between the speed and long-term quality of better solutions. 14
papers on agent-based economics nr 7 Marengo/Dosi (2005) found that a more than optimal decomposition was initially beneficial, only to be overtaken by the optimal decomposition scheme after a long time. Ethiraj/Levinthal (2004) on the other hand, did not find this trade-off. The former study was based on parallel one or several bit mutations inside assumed modules, based on NK literature, the latter study on different parallel search procedures, derived from Genetic Algorithm practice. As the results were not agreeing, the current paper investigated, whether the trade-off would be observable for more empirically based search strategies. These have been developed on the basis of Fleming/Sorenson’s (2003) strategies of Shotgun Sampling, Modular Search and Mapped Search, derived from the study of innovation strategies, based on US patent data. The paper found that no beneficial effect of an over-modularization of the search process can be confirmed. Quite the contrary, there even was a short initial advantage of strategies, ignoring the modularization of the problem altogether and searching by one or several bit mutations over the whole string, only considering the change of string fitness. However, a trade-off could be observed with the present model for Shotgun Sampling and Mapped Search. The arbitrary trial and error experimentation of Shotgun search is initially quicker in finding better solutions, but eventually gets stuck in a suboptimal local optimum. The scientifically based Mapped Search is more time consuming and thus initially in disadvantage, but finally able to approach the optimal solution. Another interesting finding concerns the consequences of the underlying correct degree of decomposition on the divergence of the results of different search strategies. The more the problem is decomposable, the less it matters, which strategy is chosen. The general order of performance is robust against the degree of decomposition, but the divergence of performance reduces (without however becoming unimportant) when the problem is more decomposed. After examining the differing results for some of the NK based studies on the effect of over- and under-estimations of module sizes of complex problems, it can be concluded that more empirically based search strategies have to be investigated, in order to determine, which results might be relevant for economic reality. The current paper tried to contribute to this investigation by testing search strategies based on empirical findings. 15
papers on agent-based economics nr 7 References Beckenbach, F., 2005. Knowledge Representation and Search Processes – a Contribution to the Microeconomics of Invention and Innovation. Volkswirtschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge. Universität Kassel, 75/05 Ethiraj, S.K. and Levinthal, D., 2004, Modularity and Innovation in Complex Systems. Management Science, 50,159-173 Fleming, L. and Sorenson, O., 2003. Navigating the Technology Landscape of Innovation. MIT Sloan Management Review (winter), 15-23 Frenken, K. and Valente, M., 2002. The Organisation of Search Activity in Complex Fitness Landscapes. Computing in Economics and Finance, 157. Society for Computational Economics Kauffman, S.A., 1993. The Origins of Order. Oxford University Press, Oxford Levinthal, D.A., 1997. Adaptation on rugged landscapes. Management Science 43 (7), 934- 950 Marengo, L. and Dosi, G. 2005. Division of Labor, Organizational Coordination and Market Mechanism in Collective Problem-Solving. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 58(2), 303-326 Siggelkow, N. and Levinthal, D.A., 2003. Temporarily divide to conquer: centralized, decentralized, and reintegrated organizational approaches to exploration and adaptation. Organization Science 14 (6), 650-669 Siggelkow, N. and Rivkin, J.W., 2006. When Exploration Backfires: Unintended Consequences of Multi-Level Organizational Search. Academy of Management Journal 49, 779-795 Simon, H.A., 1969. The Sciences of the Artificial. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA. Simon, H.A., 1983. Reason in Human Affairs. Stanford University Press, Stanford Strumsky, D. and Lobo, J., 2003. “If it Isn’t Broken, Don’t Fix it:” Extremal search on a technology landscape, Santa Fe Institute Working Paper 03-02-003 16
papers on agent-based economics nr 7 Impressum: papers on agent-based economics Herausgeber: Universität Kassel Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaften (Prof. Dr. Frank Beckenbach) Fachgebiet Umwelt- und Verhaltensökonomik Nora-Platiel- Str. 4 34127 Kassel www.ivwl.uni-kassel.de/beckenbach/ 17
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