THE FUTURE OF WAR IS NOT WHAT PEOPLE THINK - SEAN MCFATE, PHD SENIOR FELLOW, THE ATLANTIC COUNCIL PROFESSOR, NATIONAL DEFENSE UNIVERSITY & ...
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The Future of War Is Not What People Think Sean McFate, PhD Senior Fellow, The Atlantic Council Professor, National Defense University & Georgetown University Advisor, Oxford University's Centre for Technology and Global Affairs
Victor’s Curse “Generals always fight the last war, especially if they won it.”
What most U.S. war futurists see
What most U.S. war futurists see
Why does everyone assume “Great
Power Competition”
will be CONVENTIONAL fight?
GPC will be an UNCONVENTIONAL fight
Rule 1: Conventional war is outmoded
Nothing is more unconventional than “Conventional War”
Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program / Peace Research Ins;tute Oslo Armed Conflict Dataset version 17.2What kind of war is the U.S. preparing to fight?
Budgets are moral documents
because they do not lie.TOP ACQUISITIONS FY18
90 F-35 Fighter Jets
13 Battle Force Ships
24 F/A-18 Fighter Jets
100 H-60 Helicopters
2,637 Joint Light Tactical Vehicles
44,916 Joint Direct Attack Munitions
8,004 Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System
3 Space Launch RocketsTOP ACQUISITIONS FY18 R E
90 F-35 Fighter Jets F A
A
13 Battle Force ShipsR
W
24 F/A-18 Fighter Jets
L
A
100 H-60 Helicopters
N
O
2,637 Joint Light Tactical Vehicles
I
T
44,916 Joint Direct Attack Munitions
N
E
8,004 Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System
V
O N 3 Space Launch Rockets
CThe Maginot Mentality
Assuming future wars will look like past successful ones
with better technology
=“Culture eats strategy for breakfast.”
Management expert Peter DruckerWhat does future war actually look like?
War is getting
SNEAKIERBecause we live an information age: Plausible Deniability > Fire Power
Because we live an information age: Plausible Deniability > Fire Power
Warfare is moving from a Clausewitzian paradigm to a Sun Tzu oneRule 9: Shadow Wars Will Dominate
Ukraine Libya
SyriaInternational Mercenary Operations 25 Years Ago
International Mercenary Operations Past 6 Years
?
LEGEND
Russian mercenaries (Wagner Group)
Wagner Group working with Prigozhin-linked companies with oil interests
Other mercenaries
Wagner Group working with Prigozhin-linked companies with gold and diamond interestsRule 6: Mercenaries Will Return Expanding Mercenary Groups
Rule 6: Mercenaries Will Return
Rule 7: New Types of World Powers Will Rule
+
Expanding Mercenary Groups Empowers the SuperrichRule 6: Mercenaries Will Return
Rule 7: New Types of World Powers Will Rule
Rule 8: There Will Be Wars Without States
+ =
Expanding Mercenary Groups Empowers the Superrich Drug Wars and “Narco States”Rule 5: The Best Weapons Do Not Fire Bullets Old Rules: Battlefield victory
Rule 5: The Best Weapons Do Not Fire Bullets Old Rules: Battlefield victory New Rules: Telling truth from lies
Rule 5: The Best Weapons Do Not Fire Bullets Old Rules: Battlefield victory New Rules: Telling truth from lies
What does VICTORY look like?
Rule 10: Victory is Fungible
(There are many ways to win)When was the last time you saw a Hollywood
movie with a Chinese villain?When was the last time you saw a Hollywood
movie with a Chinese villain?Always the Good Guy: China’s Soft Power
Rule 1: Conventional War is Dead
Rule 2: Technology Will Not Save Us
Rule 3: There Is No Such Thing as War or
Peace — both co-exist, always
Rule 4: Hearts and Minds Do Not Matter
(at tactical and operational levels)
Rule 5: The Best Weapons Do Not Fire
Bullets
Rule 6: Mercenaries Will Return
Rule 7: New Types of World Powers Will
Rule
Rule 8: There Will Be Wars Without States
Rule 9: Shadow Wars Will Dominate
Rule 10: Victory is FungibleYou can also read
