This is your COVID wake-up call: It is 100 seconds to midnight - 2021 Doomsday Clock Statement
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This is your COVID wake-up call:
It is 100 seconds to midnight
2021 Doomsday Clock Statement
Science and Security Board
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
Editor, John MecklinIt is 100 seconds to midnight
Editor’s note: Founded in 1945 by Albert Einstein and University of Chicago scientists who helped develop the
rst atomic weapons in the Manhattan Project, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists created the Doomsday
Clock two years later, using the imagery of apocalypse (midnight) and the contemporary idiom of nuclear
explosion (countdown to zero) to convey threats to humanity and the planet. The Doomsday Clock is set every
year by the Bulletin’s Science and Security Board in consultation with its Board of Sponsors, which includes 13
Nobel laureates. The Clock has become a universally recognized indicator of the world’s vulnerability to
catastrophe from nuclear weapons, climate change, and disruptive technologies in other domains.
To: Leaders and citizens of the world Accelerating nuclear programs in multiple
countries moved the world into less stable and
Re: This is your COVID wake-up call: It is
manageable territory last year. Development of
100 seconds to midnight
hypersonic glide vehicles, ballistic missile
Date: January 27, 2021 defenses, and weapons-delivery systems that
can exibly use conventional or nuclear
Humanity continues to su er as the COVID-19 warheads may raise the probability of
pandemic spreads around the world. In 2020 miscalculation in times of tension. Events like
alone, this novel disease killed 1.7 million the deadly assault earlier this month on the US
people and sickened at least 70 million more. Capitol renewed legitimate concerns about
The pandemic revealed just how unprepared national leaders who have sole control of the
and unwilling countries and the international use of nuclear weapons. Nuclear nations,
system are to handle global emergencies however, have ignored or undermined
properly. In this time of genuine crisis, practical and available diplomatic and security
governments too often abdicated tools for managing nuclear risks. By our
responsibility, ignored scienti c advice, did estimation, the potential for the world to
not cooperate or communicate e ectively, and stumble into nuclear war—an ever-present
consequently failed to protect the health and danger over the last 75 years—increased in
welfare of their citizens. 2020. An extremely dangerous global failure to
address existential threats—what we called
As a result, many hundreds of thousands of “the new abnormal” in 2019—tightened its grip
human beings died needlessly. in the nuclear realm in the past year,
increasing the likelihood of catastrophe.
Though lethal on a massive scale, this
particular pandemic is not an existential Governments have also failed to su ciently
threat. Its consequences are grave and will be address climate change. A pandemic-related
lasting. But COVID-19 will not obliterate economic slowdown temporarily reduced the
civilization, and we expect the disease to carbon dioxide emissions that cause global
recede eventually. Still, the pandemic serves as warming. But over the coming decade fossil
a historic wake-up call, a vivid illustration that fuel use needs to decline precipitously if the
national governments and international worst e ects of climate change are to be
organizations are unprepared to manage avoided. Instead, fossil fuel development and
nuclear weapons and climate change, which production are projected to increase.
currently pose existential threats to humanity, Atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations
or the other dangers—including more virulent hit a record high in 2020, one of the two
pandemics and next-generation warfare—that warmest years on record. The massive
could threaten civilization in the near future. wild res and catastrophic cyclones of 2020 are
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 2
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ffiillustrations of the major devastation that will example, the United States has already
only increase if governments do not announced it is rejoining the Paris Agreement
signi cantly and quickly amplify their e orts on climate change and the Biden
to bring greenhouse gas emissions essentially administration has o ered to extend the New
to zero. START arms control agreement with Russia
for ve years. In the context of a post-
As we noted in our last Doomsday Clock pandemic return to relative stability, more
statement, the existential threats of nuclear such demonstrations of renewed interest in
weapons and climate change have intensi ed and respect for science and multilateral
in recent years because of a threat multiplier: cooperation could create the basis for a safer
the continuing corruption of the information and saner world.
ecosphere on which
democracy and public Because these
decision-making depend. developments have not
Here, again, the
COVID-19 pandemic is a
Positive developments yet yielded substantive
progress toward a safer
wake-up call. False and
misleading information
have not yet yielded world, they are not
su cient to move the
disseminated over the
internet—including
substantive progress Clock away from
midnight. But they are
misrepresentation of
COVID-19’s seriousness,
toward a safer world. positive and do weigh
against the profound
promotion of false cures, dangers of institutional
and politicization of low- decay, science denialism,
cost protective measures aggressive nuclear
such as face masks—created social chaos in postures, and disinformation campaigns
many countries and led to unnecessary death. discussed in our 2020 statement. The members
This wanton disregard for science and the of the Science and Security Board therefore set
large-scale embrace of conspiratorial nonsense the Doomsday Clock at 100 seconds to
—often driven by political gures and partisan midnight, the closest it has ever been to
media—undermined the ability of responsible civilization-ending apocalypse and the same
national and global leaders to protect the time we set in 2020. It is deeply unfortunate
security of their citizens. False conspiracy that the global response to the pandemic over
theories about a “stolen” presidential election the past year has explicitly validated many of
led to rioting that resulted in the death of ve the concerns we have voiced for decades.
people and the rst hostile occupation of the
US Capitol since 1814. We continue to believe that human beings can
manage the dangers posed by modern
In 2020, online lying literally killed. technology, even in times of crisis. But if
humanity is to avoid an existential catastrophe
Considered by themselves, these negative —one that would dwarf anything it has yet
events in the nuclear, climate change, and seen—national leaders must do a far better job
disinformation arenas might justify moving the of countering disinformation, heeding science,
clock closer to midnight. But amid the gloom, and cooperating to diminish global risks.
we see some positive developments. The Citizens around the world can and should
election of a US president who acknowledges organize and demand—through public
climate change as a profound threat and protests, at ballot boxes, and in other creative
supports international cooperation and ways—that their governments reorder their
science-based policy puts the world on a priorities and cooperate domestically and
better footing to address global problems. For internationally to reduce the risk of nuclear
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fiwar, climate change, and other global disasters, from which the United States withdrew in
including pandemic disease. 2019. China, which has historically relied on a
small and constrained nuclear arsenal, is
We have experienced the consequences of expanding its capabilities and deploying
inaction. It is time to respond. multiple, independently retargetable warheads
on some of its ICBMs and will likely add more
A dark nuclear landscape, with in the coming year.
glimmers of hope
The heightened interest that the United States
In the past year, countries with nuclear and Russia have shown in hypersonic
weapons continued to spend vast sums on weapons, as demonstrated by a number of
nuclear modernization programs, even as they tests in 2020, is deeply worrisome. The
hypersonics arms race has already led to calls
allowed proven risk-reduction achievements in for space-based interceptors to destroy them
arms control and diplomacy to wither or die. in ight. This militarization of space is
Nuclear weapons and weapons-delivery dangerously destabilizing and increases the
platforms capable of carrying either nuclear or risk of escalation and accidental con ict.
conventional warheads
continued to proliferate, while Several countries are
destabilizing “advances” in developing weapons-delivery
the space and cyber realms, in The potential to platforms that can carry
either nuclear or conventional
hypersonic missiles, and in
missile defenses continued.
Governments in the United
stumble into warheads, introducing greater
risks of miscalculation in a
States, Russia, and other
countries appear to consider
nuclear war crisis or conventional con ict.
Some may view this
nuclear weapons more-and-
more usable, increasing the
has grown. ambiguity as a deterrent to
war, but it is not hard to
risks of their actual use. imagine how mistaking a
There continues to be an conventionally armed cruise
extraordinary disregard for the potential of an missile for a nuclear-armed
accidental nuclear war, even as well- missile could complicate decision-making in
documented examples of frighteningly close the fog of crisis or war, potentially leading to
calls have emerged. preemptive strikes. The potential to stumble
into nuclear war—ever present—has grown.
US and Russian nuclear modernization e orts
continued to accelerate, and North Korea, Meanwhile, developments in Northeast Asia,
China, India, and Pakistan pursued “improved” the Middle East, and South Asia further add to
and larger nuclear forces. Some of these nuclear risks.
modernization programs are beginning to eld
weapons with dangerous enhancements, like North Korea continues to develop its missile
Russia’s nuclear-tipped Avangard hypersonic and nuclear programs. It revealed a new and
glide vehicles, which are being installed on larger long-range missile (Hwasong-16) in
new SS-29 (Sarmat) missiles designed to
October 2020 at a military parade, but in the
replace 1980s-era intercontinental ballistic
absence of ight testing, it’s not clear whether
missiles (ICBMs). Russia continues to eld
the new missile will add major capabilities to
battalions of intermediate-range, ground-
North Korea’s arsenal. There were no high
launched, nuclear-armed missiles—missiles
previously banned by the now-defunct
Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty,
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filevel meetings between North Korea and the Other arms control e orts—including the
United States in 2020, leaving the future of US nuclear test ban treaty and negotiations to stop
negotiations with North Korea in doubt. producing ssile materials for weapons—have
unraveled or are stalled. Previous cooperation
South Asia remains a potential nuclear hot on ssile material control and nuclear
spot, as both India and Pakistan continue to proliferation among the United States, Russia,
enlarge their arsenals and increase the and China has lapsed, and there are no serious
sophistication and ranges of their weapons, e orts aimed at limiting risky developments in
with Indian ballistic missiles now able to reach cyberweapons, space weapons, missile
defenses, and hypersonic missiles.
Chinese targets. The relatively recent
movement of nuclear competition among The tenth review of the Non-Proliferation
these countries to sea-based platforms, Treaty (NPT) was postponed in 2020 because
including submarines, raises the risk—already of the COVID-19 pandemic. Rescheduled for
high—that conventional skirmishes could this year, the review conference will provide
escalate to the nuclear level. an opportunity for nuclear weapons countries
to demonstrate the practical steps they have
The continued e ort by Iran to enhance its taken or will commit to take to reduce the
nuclear capabilities is another serious concern. risks of nuclear weapons use and scale back
But a bright spot in an otherwise gloomy their reliance on nuclear weapons.
landscape is the Biden administration’s stated
desire to rejoin the Iran nuclear deal, known Just a few days ago, the Treaty on the
o cially as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons entered into
Action (JCPOA). In response to the 2018 US force after 50 countries completed rati cation.
withdrawal, Iran deliberately walked back its This treaty was developed by countries that do
commitments under the agreement. Stockpiles not have nuclear weapons, with the intention
of low-enriched uranium have increased, of bringing pressure on the nuclear weapons
enrichment levels have risen, and new, states to move more forcefully toward nuclear
improved centrifuges have been installed. disarmament. The treaty brings much-needed
These actions have reduced the amount of attention to the risks posed by nuclear
time it would take Iran to put together a weapons, especially the enormous
nuclear weapon from one year to several humanitarian impacts of the use of nuclear
months. At the same time, Iran continues to weapons. We hope that the treaty will lead to
comply with many of the agreement’s concrete actions by all states to address the
requirements, and many of the actions it has challenges of disarmament and proliferation,
taken can easily be reversed. However, Iran’s including collective security and veri cation.
willingness to remain in the agreement is not a We call on all states to collaborate and
given. compromise to achieve real disarmament
results.
To keep nuclear modernization programs from
becoming a full-scale nuclear arms race, it will Climate change action after the
be essential that New START, a treaty that
limits US and Russian strategic weapon
pandemic
deployments, be extended for ve more years, Last year was to have marked a climate change
buying time for a follow-on agreement to be milestone: The parties to the Paris Agreement
considered, negotiated, and put into force. were expected to increase their pledges to
Russian President Vladimir Putin and new US reduce the greenhouse gas emissions that are
President Joe Biden agreed to do that on disrupting Earth’s climate. The initial pledges
January 26, and now the action is in the made in 2015 to reduce emissions over this
Duma’s hands. decade were markedly inadequate and meant
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fionly to begin an iterative process towards the energy demand and thus emissions—unless we
goal of limiting global warming to well below 2 take deliberate policy steps to reduce fossil-
degrees Celsius, relative to pre-industrial fuel use and accelerate the adoption of
levels. Countries had been expected to raise alternatives.
their pledges at the 2020 meeting, but because
of the coronavirus pandemic, the meeting was Fortunately, renewable energy has been
postponed until this year. resilient in the turbulent pandemic energy
environment. Renewable deployment has
The delay may help. Few countries have been slowed, but by less than other sources, and
paying much attention to climate action during investment remains high. In the US, coal is
the pandemic. In 2020, countries whose projected to provide less electricity than
emissions amounted to barely one-quarter of renewables for the rst time ever, owing to a
the global total had submitted improved decline in electricity demand and coal’s
emissions pledges, and countries responsible inability to compete given the low price of
for another quarter of global emissions— natural gas and near-zero operating costs of
including Australia, Japan, the United States, renewables. Globally, demand for fossil-based
Russia, Indonesia, Brazil power has declined,
and New Zealand— while demand for
simply announced renewable power has
pledges that were
e ectively identical to
In 2020, the impacts of risen.
or even weaker than
their existing climate change were These developments
need to be sustained
underscored in extreme
commitments. Although into the recovery from
the United States the COVID-19 crisis, but
are not nearly enough to
formally withdrew from
the Paris Agreement and damaging ways. halt warming. Global
late last year, the new greenhouse gas
administration has concentrations in the
begun the process of atmosphere have hit a
rejoining and expressed its intention to submit record high, and 2020 was essentially tied with
an improved pledge and to provide additional 2016 as the warmest year on record. Until
nancial support for climate actions in poor global carbon dioxide emissions are reduced
countries. As the pandemic recedes, more nearly to zero, the burden of carbon dioxide in
countries may step up their pledges over the the atmosphere will continue to mount, and
course of the coming year. the world will continue to warm. The climate
is still heading in the wrong direction.
As the COVID-19 pandemic deepened in the
early months of 2020, carbon dioxide In 2020, the impacts of continuing climate
emissions dropped by an estimated 17 percent change were underscored in extreme and
compared to the previous year’s. Emissions damaging ways. Portions of North America
have largely bounced back, however, as the and Australia su ered massive wild res, and a
world’s fossil fuel-dependent economies have clear signal of human-caused climate change
begun to recover, and the year’s total was evident in the frequency of powerful
emissions were estimated at only four-to- tropical cyclones and the heavier rainfall they
seven percent lower than last year’s. Of course, produced. Meanwhile, evidence mounted that
cutting emissions temporarily via disease- sea level rise is accelerating, and the e ects of
induced economic recession is neither the oceans growing warmer and more acidic
desirable nor sustainable. And, as with other because of carbon dioxide absorption were
economic crises, further recovery will raise clear in many marine ecosystems, as was most
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ffdramatically illustrated by the ongoing A second question: How will the pandemic
destruction of coral reefs. a ect the ability of the international political
system to manage global climate change? Like
In the long term, the answers to two questions climate change, the COVID-19 pandemic is a
related to the pandemic will have important global problem that calls for a global solution.
climate change rami cations: How successfully the leaders of the world’s
nations coordinate their responses to the
First, to what extent will economic stimulus pandemic a ects (or, will a ect) their faith and
spending aimed at ending the coronavirus commitment to multilateralism generally. They
economic slowdown be directed toward could become more con dent in the value of
e cient green infrastructure and low-carbon e ective global cooperation and robust
industries? Such support will inevitably international institutions, or they could
compete with aid requests from fossil fuel emerge more mistrustful of multilateralism
companies and other carbon-intensive and discard their remaining commitments to
industries that are also facing pandemic- invest in already declining and over-stretched
related pressures. institutions of global cooperation. A positive
experience could lead to e ective
In the COVID-19 case, a lot of “brown” (fossil- collaborations addressing climate change, the
based) stimulus is in the works. The trillions threat of nuclear war, and global challenges yet
of dollars in stimulus programs that countries to emerge.
have launched are not particularly green. In
aggregate, the G20 countries had committed
The COVID-19 infodemic and other
approximately $240 billion to stimulus
spending that supports fossil fuel energy by disruptive threats
the end of 2020, versus $160 billion for clean
The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the
energy. Likewise, the support packages for
planet in many extraordinary and negative
developing countries from the World Bank and
ways, one of which involves the internet-
International Monetary Fund do not favor low-
driven spread of false or misleading
carbon investments. And while China has
information. As the pandemic emerged, it
made strong commitments to the
spawned what the World Health Organization
decarbonization of its domestic economy, its
has called a “massive ‘infodemic’—an over-
Belt and Road Initiative appears poised to ll
abundance of information … that makes it hard
the niche increasingly being abandoned by
for people to nd trustworthy sources and
developed country nance sectors, pouring
reliable guidance when they need it.” The
investment into fossil-fuel infrastructure
COVID-19 infodemic includes deliberate
around the world.
attempts (sometimes by national leaders) to
At present, national plans for fossil fuel disseminate misinformation and
development and production are anything but disinformation that harms physical and mental
encouraging; they project global growth in health; threatens public health gains; damages
carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel use economies; and makes it much more di cult
of roughly two percent per year over this for the nations of the world to stop the
coming critical decade, whereas emissions pandemic.
would need to decline precipitously if the
The COVID-19 pandemic and its
temperature commitments of the Paris
accompanying infodemic have become
Agreement were to be met. If these plans are
intertwined with critical uncertainties
indeed pursued, fossil fuel production in 2030
would be around 50 percent higher than is regarding science, technology, and crisis
communications.
consistent with meeting even the least
ambitious goals of the Paris Agreement.
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fiFirst, not all of the science relevant to ending provided a trusted center that supports
the pandemic was known at its outset. Alas, societal stability—government agencies,
many loud voices regarded the evolution of especially those related to public health and
scienti c knowledge about COVID-19 as climate change, journalism, the judiciary,
reason to ignore and disparage scienti c education—are under attack precisely because
advice about controlling the pandemic. they have provided stability.
Also, as new science-based treatments and At the very least, the widespread dysfunction
interventions were developed and tested, in today’s information ecosystem is a threat
experts needed to learn how to maximize their multiplier that vastly complicates society’s
bene cial e ects and deliver them to the ability to address major challenges. Pandemic
public. This learning process introduced responses in some countries, including the
uncertainty into pandemic discourse around United States, have provided graphic
the world. demonstrations that
such concerns are not
And nally, merely theoretical.
governmental
communications about The widespread Disinformation has led
leaders and citizens alike
COVID-19 included
inconsistent and dysfunction in today’s to reject scienti c advice
about limiting the spread
information ecosystem is
contradictory of COVID-19, with tragic
narratives emerging results.
from political leaders
and institutions that a threat multiplier Unchecked internet
should have been disinformation could
cooperating and that vastly complicates have even more drastic
coordinating. consequences in a
As these three
society’s ability to nuclear crisis, perhaps
leading to a nuclear war
uncertainties played
out last year, the
address major that ends world
civilization.
public’s response to
the coronavirus
challenges. Disinformation e orts
across communications
emergency fractured systems are at this
along ideological lines, moment undermining
with partisanship responses to climate
often replacing science as the justi cation for change in many countries. The need for deep
public health measures. Unfortunately, the thinking and careful, e ective action to
internet-fueled undercutting of rational counter the e ects of internet-enabled
discourse and policy making is not speci c to disinformation has never been clearer.
COVID-19. E orts to deal with the existential
threats of nuclear war and climate change have Meanwhile, the COVID-19 pandemic continues
been similarly undermined. to rage. SARS-CoV-2 took advantage of both
physiological and societal vulnerabilities and
Social media, search engines, always-on continues to nimbly skirt poorly mustered
mobile computing technologies, and other defenses. Recent mutations have created
technology applications have exploited human variants of the virus that are more infectious
cognitive propensities to be misled and and sicken children, who were previously
enraged and to react impulsively, exacerbating thought to be less prone to infection.
political and ideological di erences.
Established institutions that have traditionally
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fiScientists around the world have mobilized to provide enough hospital beds to treat
create COVID-19 treatments and vaccines, and everyone who became seriously ill with the
their work is showing promise in reducing the disease, or to manage international supply
severity of and eventually suppressing the chains well enough to deliver medicines and
pandemic. But public o cials who have equipment when and where they were most
dismissed the value of science during the needed. International security requires speedy
pandemic now face populations hesitant to action to reduce those vulnerabilities. An
take COVID-19 vaccines. Those same public improved global public health e ort to
gures also failed to iron out the prevent, detect, respond to, and recover from
manufacturing, distribution, and other natural pandemics would, as a salutary side-
logistical details needed for e cient e ect, better prepare the world to respond to
immunization programs. biological accidents and attacks.
As this pandemic subsides, leaders around the This is your wake-up call
world must come together to create the
institutions and surveillance regimes that can When the world nally emerges from the
identify disease outbreaks worst pandemic in a
and quash them before century, everyone will
they become pandemics, rightly celebrate. It might
quickly develop vaccines
and therapeutics for new The message is be tempting to mark the
COVID-19 experience as a
diseases, and rapidly
promulgate preventive simple and chilling: one-o , a dismal anomaly
to be forgotten. We, too,
measures for public wish the world could
health. Next time could return to normal in short
order.
Rapidly advancing
biological research and
be far worse. But the pandemic is not a
development have unique departure from a
produced, and will secure reality. It is a
continue to produce, harbinger, an
disruptive technologies that could increase unmistakable signal that much worse will
biological risk. In the risk-increasing category come if leaders and institutions do not enact
are biotechnology applications that could, for wide-ranging reforms to forestall and
example, create super-soldiers or produce minimize future pandemics, to restore the
biological weapons. Many countries and primacy of science-based policies, and to
corporations are investing in the biological reduce the possibility of nuclear war and the
sciences as they recognize the immense impacts of climate change.
opportunities to establish and grow
bioeconomies. These bio-investment programs We set the Doomsday Clock at 100 seconds to
raise the new possibility that nations may midnight—the closest it has ever been—
conduct biological weapons research and because the existential risks confronting
development under the guise of building humanity today call for quick and
e ective responses for naturally occurring comprehensive action across the 21st century’s
pandemics. complex threat spectrum. Here are some
practical steps that world leaders can and
Bad actors have surely taken notice of the gaps should initiate in 2021 to protect humanity
in national responses to the COVID-19 from major global threats that have the
pandemic. Most nations were unable to meet potential to end civilization:
needs for personal protective equipment, to
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 9
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ff• The US and Russian presidents should, risk reduction and on avoiding escalation
upon extension of New START, launch dangers.
follow-on talks for more ambitious and
comprehensive limits of nuclear weapons • North Korea can agree to codify and allow
and delivery systems. veri cation of its moratorium on nuclear
tests and long-range missile tests.
• Now that the United States has
announced it will rejoin the Paris climate • Iran and the United States can jointly
agreement, it should accelerate its return to full compliance with the Joint
commitment to decarbonization and put Comprehensive Plan of Action, and Iran
policies in place that make the attainment can agree to new, broader talks about
of the commitment feasible. Middle East security and constraints on
its missile and other military activities.
• Now that the United States has rejoined
the World Health Organization, it should • The United States and Russia can renew
work through the WHO and other cooperation on ssile material and
international institutions to reduce nuclear security to make sure that
biological risks of all kinds. Also, national terrorists cannot acquire the means to
leaders and international organizations build a nuclear weapon.
can prepare for biological events before
they occur by more carefully monitoring • Banks and other sources of capital can
animal-human interactions and improving implement policies that limit investment
international disease surveillance and in fossil fuel projects, as indeed some
reporting e orts; increasing world already have done, and redirect it to
capacity to produce and quickly distribute climate-friendly investments.
medical supplies; and expanding hospital
capacity. • China can reorient its Belt and Road
Initiative, so it sets an example for other
• US President Joe Biden can show investors by pursuing sustainable
leadership by reducing US reliance on development pathways rather than
nuclear weapons via limits on their roles, supporting fossil fuel-intensive
missions, and platforms, and by development.
decreasing budgets accordingly. The
United States should declare its • All nations can commit to stronger
decarbonization goals under the Paris
commitment to no- rst-use of nuclear
Agreement and implement policies
weapons and persuade allies and rivals to
directed toward the realization of these
agree that no- rst-use is a step toward
goals. Those policies should address not
security and stability.
merely long-term goals but near-term
• President Biden should banish the fear emission reductions and investments in
that a single person would have the power longer-term structural changes.
to end civilization by eliminating his own Meanwhile, the world’s wealthier
and future US presidents’ sole authority countries should enhance their
to launch nuclear weapons. He should commitments under the Paris Agreement
work to persuade other countries with to provide nancial support and
nuclear weapons to put in place similar technology cooperation required by
barriers. developing countries to undertake strong
climate action.
• Russia can rejoin the NATO-Russia
Council and open serious discussions on • Leaders in governments and the private
sector can emphasize COVID-recovery
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 10
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fiinvestments that strongly favor climate
mitigation and adaptation objectives
across all economic sectors and address
the full range of potential greenhouse gas
emission reductions. This includes capital
investments in urban development,
agriculture, transport, heavy industry,
buildings and appliances, and electric
power.
• The new US administration can ll
leadership positions for science-based
agencies on the basis of scienti c
expertise and credentials; prohibit
interference with the production or
dissemination of executive branch
scienti c reports; use the best possible
science to inform policy considerations;
allow government scientists to engage
with the public about their work; and
provide funding to restore and strengthen
international scienti c cooperation.
• National leaders and international
organizations can create more e ective
regimes for monitoring biological
research and development e orts, so
potential bene ts can be maximized, and
possible negative consequences
minimized or eliminated.
• Governments, major communications
technology rms, academic experts, and
responsible media organizations can
cooperate to nd practical and ethical
ways to combat internet-enabled
misinformation and disinformation.
Having now killed more than two million
human beings, COVID-19 is an unmistakable
global wake-up call. The message is simple
and chilling: Next time could be far worse.
Given the pandemic experience, no one can
reasonably say he or she was not warned. It
remains 100 seconds to midnight, the most
dangerous situation that humanity has ever
faced. It is time for all to take the actions
needed to—quite literally—save the world.
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fiScience and Security Board Biographies
Rachel Bronson is the President and CEO of Lynn Eden Eden is Senior Research Scholar
the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, where (Emeritus) at Stanford University’s Center for
she oversees the publishing programs, the International Security and Cooperation. Eden is
management of the Doomsday Clock, and activities also co-chair of US Pugwash and a member of the
around nuclear risk, climate change, International Pugwash Council. Her scholarly work
and disruptive technologies. Before joining the focuses on the military and society; science,
Bulletin, she served as vice president for Studies at technology, and organizations; and US nuclear
The Chicago Council on Global A airs, adjunct weapons history and policy. Eden’s Whole World
professor of “Global Energy” at the Kellogg School on Fire: Organizations, Knowledge, and Nuclear
of Management, and senior fellow and director of Weapons Devastation won the American
Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Sociological Association’s 2004 Robert K. Merton
Relations, among other positions. Her book, award for best book in science and technology
Thicker than Oil: America’s Uneasy Partnership studies. Her current research and writing (mostly
with Saudi Arabia (Oxford University Press, 2006), historical) asks how a speci c US military
has been translated into Japanese and published in planning organization has enabled very good
paperback. Her writings and commentary have people to plan what, if put into action, could or
appeared in outlets including Foreign A airs, would result in the deaths of tens or hundreds of
Foreign Policy, The New York Times, The millions of people. In other words, how do US
Washington Post, “PBS NewsHour,” and “The Daily military o cers make plans to ght and prevail in
Show.” Bronson has served as a consultant to NBC nuclear war?
News and testi ed before the congressional Task
Force on Anti-Terrorism and Proliferation Rod Ewing is the Frank Stanton Professor in
Financing, Congress’s Joint Economic Committee, Nuclear Security in the Center for International
and the 9/11 Commission. Security and Cooperation in the Freeman Spogli
Institute for International Studies and a Professor
Edmund G Brown Jr. (Executive Chair) in the Department of Geological Sciences in
completed his fourth term as Governor of the State the School of Earth, Energy and Environmental
of California in 2019. He began his career in public Sciences at Stanford University. Ewing’s research
service in 1969 as a trustee for the LA Community focuses on the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle,
College District and became California Secretary mainly nuclear materials and the geochemistry of
of State in 1970 and Governor of California in 1974 radionuclides. He is the past president of the
and 1978. After his governorship, Brown lectured International Union of Materials Research
and traveled widely, practiced law, served as Societies. Ewing has written extensively on issues
chairman of the state Democratic Party, and ran for related to nuclear waste management and is co-
president. Brown was elected Mayor of Oakland in editor of Radioactive Waste Forms for the
1998 and California Attorney General in 2006; he Future and Uncertainty Underground: Yucca
was elected to a third gubernatorial term in 2010 Mountain and the Nation’s High-Level Nuclear
and a fourth term in 2014. During this time, Brown Waste. He received the Lomonosov Medal of the
helped eliminate the state's multi-billion budget Russian Academy of Sciences in 2006.
de cit, spearheaded successful campaigns to
provide new funding for California's schools, and Steve Fetter is associate provost, dean of the
established a robust Rainy Day Fund to prepare for graduate school, and professor of public policy at
the next economic downturn. His administration the University of Maryland. He served for ve
established nation-leading targets to protect the years in the White House O ce of Science and
environment and ght climate change. Brown Technology Policy during the Obama
attended the University of California, Berkeley, and Administration, where he led the environment and
earned a JD at Yale Law School. energy and the national security and international
a airs divisions. He is a fellow of the American
Physical Society and a member of the Union of
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Concerned Scientists board of directors and the Wave Observatory (LIGO) collaboration, and was
National Academy of Sciences Committee on part of the team that announced the rst detection
International Security and Arms Control. He has of gravitational waves in early 2016 and the rst
worked on nuclear policy issues in the Pentagon multi-messenger detection of a binary neutron star
and the State Department and has been a visiting in 2017. He received a 2012 National Science
fellow at Stanford, Harvard, MIT, and Lawrence Foundation CAREER Award, the 2015 Quantrell
Livermore National Laboratory. He also served as Award for Excellence in Undergraduate Teaching,
associate director of the Joint Global Change and the Breakthrough Prize in Fundamental
Research Institute and vice chairman of the Physics in 2016. Holz was selected as a Kavli Fellow
Federation of American Scientists. He is a of the National Academy of Sciences and is a
recipient of the American Physical Society's Joseph Fellow of the American Physical Society. He
A. Burton Forum and Leo Szilard Lectureship received his PhD in physics from the University of
awards, the Federation of American Scientists' Chicago and his AB in physics from Princeton
Hans Bethe 'Science in the Public Service' award, University.
and the Secretary of Defense Medal for
Outstanding Public Service. Sivan Kartha is a senior scientist at the Stockholm
Environmental Institute whose research and
Asha M. George is the executive director of the publications for the past 25 years have focused on
Bipartisan Commission on Biodefense. She is a technological options and policy strategies for
public health security professional whose research addressing climate change, concentrating most
and programmatic emphasis has been practical, recently on equity and e ciency in the design of
academic, and political. George served in the US an international climate regime. He is a co-leader
House of Representatives as a senior professional of SEI’s Gender and Social Equity Programme, and
sta er and subcommittee sta director at the co-director of the Climate Equity Reference
House Committee on Homeland Security in the Project. His current work deals primarily with the
110th and 111th Congress. She has worked for a economic, political, and ethical dimensions of
variety of organizations, including government equitably sharing the e ort of an ambitious global
contractors, foundations, and non-pro ts. As a response to climate change. Dr. Kartha has also
contractor, she supported and worked with all worked on mitigation scenarios, market
federal Departments, especially the Department of mechanisms for climate actions, and the
Homeland Security and the Department of Health environmental and socioeconomic impacts of
and Human Services. George also served on active biomass energy. His work has enabled him to
duty in the US Army as a military intelligence advise and collaborate with diverse organizations,
o cer and as a paratrooper. She is a decorated including the UN Climate Convention Secretariat,
Desert Storm Veteran. She holds a Bachelor of Arts various United Nations and World Bank programs,
in Natural Sciences from Johns Hopkins University, numerous government policy-making bodies and
a Master of Science in Public Health from the agencies, foundations, and civil society
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, and a organizations throughout the developing and
Doctorate in Public Health from the University of industrialized world. He served as a coordinating
Hawaii at Manoa. She is also a graduate of the lead author in the preparation of the Fifth
Harvard University National Preparedness Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel
Leadership Initiative. on Climate Change, released in 2014, co-leading the
chapter on Equity and Sustainable Development,
Daniel Holz is a professor at the University of and has been selected as a lead author for the
Chicago in the Departments of Physics, Astronomy upcoming IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, to be
& Astrophysics, the Enrico Fermi Institute, and the released in 2021.
Kavli Institute for Cosmological Physics. His
research focuses on general relativity in the Robert Lati retired from the US Air Force as a
context of astrophysics and cosmology. He is a major general in 2006. He is an adjunct professor
member of the Laser Interferometer Gravitational- at the University of Notre Dame and a research
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professor at George Mason University’s School of Administration) and certi cates in Managed Care
Engineering. He is also a member of the Air Force and Health Care Administration from Benedictine
Studies Board, as well as the Intelligence University in Lisle, IL.
Community Studies Board and the Committee on
International Security and Arms Control of the Steve Miller is Director of the International
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Security Program at the Belfer Center for Science
Medicine. Lati 's book, Future War, looks at how and International A airs in Harvard University’s
future technology will change virtually every Kennedy School of Government. He is a Fellow of
aspect of war as we know it and how we can the American Academy of Arts and Sciences,
respond to the serious national security challenges where he is a member of the Committee on
ahead. International Security Studies (CISS). Miller is also
Co-Chair of the US Pugwash Committee, and is a
Herb Lin is a senior research scholar for cyber member of the Council of International Pugwash.
policy and security at the Center for International Miller co-directed the Academy’s project on the
Security and Cooperation, and Hank J. Holland Global Nuclear Future Initiative with the Bulletin’s
Fellow in Cyber Policy and Security at the Hoover Science and Security Board chair, Robert Rosner.
Institution, both at Stanford University. His
research interests relate broadly to the policy and Raymond Pierrehumbert is Halley Professor of
national security dimensions of cybersecurity and Physics at the University of Oxford. He was a lead
cyberspace, with focus on o ensive operations in author on the IPCC Third Assessment Report, and
cyberspace and information warfare and in uence a co-author of the National Research Council
operations. Lin holds additional a liations with report on abrupt climate change. He was awarded a
the National Academies, Columbia’s Saltzman John Simon Guggenheim Fellowship in 1996, which
Institute, and the Aspen Cybersecurity Group. In was used to launch collaborative work on the
2019, he was elected a fellow of the American climate of Early Mars with collaborators in Paris.
Association for the Advancement of Science. In He is a Fellow of the American Geophysical Union
2016, he served on President Obama’s Commission (AGU), a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts
on Enhancing National Cybersecurity. He has and Sciences, and has been named Chevalier de
previously served as a professional sta member l'Ordre des Palmes Académiques by the Republic
and sta scientist for the House Armed Services of France. Pierrehumbert’s central research
Committee (1986-1990), where his portfolio interest is the use of fundamental physical
included defense policy and arms control issues. principles to elucidate the behavior of the present
and past climates of Earth and other planets,
Suzet McKinney is the CEO/Executive Director including the growing catalog of exoplanets. He
of the Illinois Medical District. The Illinois leads the European Research Council Advance
Medical District (IMD), a 24/7/365 environment Grant project EXOCONDENSE.
that includes 560 acres of medical research
facilities, labs, a biotech business incubator, Robert Rosner (Chair) is the William E. Wrather
universities, raw land development areas, four Distinguished Service Professor in the
hospitals and more than 40 healthcare related Departments of Astronomy &
facilities, is one of the largest urban medical Astrophysics and Physics, and the Harris School of
districts in the United States. Dr. McKinney holds Public Policy at the University of Chicago. Rosner
her Doctorate degree from the University of served as Director of Argonne National Laboratory,
Illinois at Chicago School of Public Health, with a where he had also served as Chief Scientist. His
focus on preparedness planning, leadership and current scienti c research is mostly in the areas of
workforce development. She received her Bachelor laboratory and astrophysical uid dynamics and
of Arts in Biology from Brandeis University magnetohydrodynamics, and computational
(Waltham, MA) where she was also a Howard physics. His policy-oriented work has focused on
Hughes Medical Institute Fellow. She received her the future of nuclear power and the back end of the
Master of Public Health degree (Health Care nuclear fuel cycle, as well as various aspects of
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 14
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electrifying the transport sector. He is a fellow of Susan Solomon is the Lee and Geraldine Martin
the American Physical Society, and an elected Professor of Environmental Studies at the
member of the American Academy of Arts & Massachusetts Institute of Technology and was the
Sciences and the Norwegian Academy of Science Founding Director of the MIT Environmental
and Letters. As chair of the Science and Security Solutions Initiative from 2014-2015. She is well
Board, Rosner is a member of the Governing known for pioneering work that explained why
Board, ex o cio. there is a hole in the Antarctic ozone layer and is
the author of several in uential scienti c papers in
Scott Sagan is the Caroline S.G. Munro Professor climate science. Solomon received the Crafoord
of Political Science, the Mimi and Peter Haas Prize from the Swedish Academy of Sciences in
University Fellow in Undergraduate Education, 2018, the 1999 US National Medal of Science, the
and Senior Fellow at the Center for International nation’s highest scienti c award, in 1999, and has
Security and Cooperation and the Freeman Spogli also received the Grande Medaille of the French
Institute at Stanford University. He also serves as Academy of Sciences, the Blue Planet Prize in
Chairman of the American Academy of Arts and Japan, the BBVA Frontiers of Knowledge Award,
Sciences’ Committee on International Security and the Volvo Environment Prize. She is a member
Studies. Before joining the Stanford faculty, Sagan of the US National Academy of Sciences, the
was a lecturer in the Department of Government at French Academy of Sciences, and the Royal Society
Harvard University and served as special assistant in the UK. She served as co-chair for the
to the director of the Organization of the Joint Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Chiefs of Sta in the Pentagon. Sagan has also (IPCC) fourth climate science assessment report,
served as a consultant to the o ce of the Secretary released in 2007. Time magazine named Solomon
of Defense and at the Sandia National Laboratory as one of the 100 most in uential people in the
and the Los Alamos National Laboratory. world in 2008.
Robert Socolow is professor emeritus in the Sharon Squassoni is a research professor at the
Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Institute for International Science and Technology
Engineering at Princeton University. From 2000 to Policy, Elliott School of International A airs, at the
2019, he and Steve Pacala were the co-principal George Washington University. She has specialized
investigators of Princeton's Carbon Mitigation in nuclear nonproliferation, arms control and
Initiative, a twenty- ve-year (2001-2025) project security policy for three decades, serving in the US
supported by BP. His best-known paper, with government at the Arms Control and Disarmament
Pacala, was in Science (2004): "Stabilization Agency, the State Department, and the
Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next Congressional Research Service. Since 2007, she
50 Years with Current Technologies." Socolow is a has directed research programs at the Center for
member of the American Academy of Arts and Strategic and International Studies and the
Sciences, an associate of the National Research Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. A
Council of the National Academies, a fellow of the political scientist by training, she holds degrees
American Physical Society, and a fellow of the from the State University of New York at Albany,
American Association for the Advancement of the University of Maryland, and the National War
Science. His awards include the 2009 Frank Kreith College.
Energy Award from the American Society of
Mechanical Engineers and the 2005 Axelson Jon Wolfsthal is Director of the Nuclear Crisis
Johnson Commemorative Lecture award from the Group, an independent project of Global Zero.
Royal Academy of Engineering Sciences of Sweden Wolfsthal served previously as Special Assistant to
(IVA). In 2003 he received the Leo Szilard the President of the United States for National
Lectureship Award from the American Physical Security A airs and senior director at the National
Society. Security Council for arms control and
nonproliferation. During his time in government,
he was involved in almost every aspect of US
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nuclear weapons, arms control, nonproliferation
and security policy. Previously, Wolfsthal was the
Deputy Director of the Center for Nonproliferation
Studies at the Monterey Institute of International
Studies, and served for three years as special
advisor to Vice President Biden on issues of
nuclear security and nonproliferation. He served in
several capacities during the 1990s at the US
Department of Energy, including an on-the-ground
assignment in North Korea during 1995-96. With
Joseph Cirincione, he is the author of Deadly
Arsenals: Tracking Weapons of Mass Destruction.
Wolfsthal is a non-resident fellow with the
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Editor
John Mecklin is the editor-in-chief of the Bulletin
of the Atomic Scientists. Previously, he was editor-
in-chief of Miller-McCune (since renamed Paci c
Standard), an award-winning national magazine
that focused on research-based solutions to major
policy problems. Over the preceding 15 years, he
was also: the editor of High Country News, a
nationally acclaimed magazine that reports on the
American West; the consulting executive editor for
the launch of Key West, a regional magazine start-
up directed by renowned magazine guru Roger
Black; and the top editor for award-winning
newsweeklies in San Francisco and Phoenix. In an
earlier incarnation, he was an investigative
reporter at the Houston Post and covered the
Persian Gulf War from Saudi Arabia and Iraq.
Writers working at his direction have won many
major journalism contests, including the George
Polk Award, the Investigative Reporters and
Editors certi cate, and the Sidney Hillman Award
for reporting on social justice issues. Mecklin
holds a master in public administration degree
from Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government.
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 16
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fiAbout the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
At our core, the Bulletin of the Atomic The Bulletin has many audiences: the general
Scientists is a media organization, publishing a public, which will ultimately bene t or su er
free-access website and a bimonthly magazine. from scienti c breakthroughs; policymakers,
But we are much more. The Bulletin’s website, whose duty is to harness those breakthroughs
iconic Doomsday Clock, and regular events for good; and the scientists themselves, who
equip the public, policymakers, and scientists produce those technological advances and
with the information needed to reduce thus bear a special responsibility. Our
manmade threats to our existence. The community is international, with half of our
Bulletin focuses on three main areas: nuclear website visitors coming from outside the
risk, climate change, and disruptive United States. It is also young. Half are under
technologies. What connects these topics is a the age of 35.
driving belief that because humans created
them, we can control them. To learn more, visit our website:
The Bulletin is an independent, nonpro t 501 https://thebulletin.org
(c) (3) organization. We gather the most
informed and in uential voices tracking man-
made threats and bring their innovative
thinking to a global audience. We apply
intellectual rigor to the conversation and do
not shrink from alarming truths.
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 17
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ffTimeline of Doomsday Clock changes
2020 IT IS 100 SECONDS TO MIDNIGHT obvious and imminent. The opportunity to reduce
Humanity continues to face two the danger is equally clear. The world has seen the
simultaneous existential dangers—nuclear threat posed by the misuse of information
war and climate change—that are compounded by technology and witnessed the vulnerability of
a threat multiplier, cyber-enabled information democracies to disinformation. But there is a ip
warfare, that undercuts society’s ability to respond. side to the abuse of social media. Leaders react
Faced with this daunting threat landscape and a when citizens insist they do so, and citizens around
new willingness of political leaders to reject the the world can use the power of the internet to
negotiations and institutions that can protect improve the long-term prospects of their children
civilization over the long term, the Science and and grandchildren. They can insist on facts, and
Security Board moved the Doomsday Clock 20 discount nonsense. They can demand action to
seconds closer to midnight—closer to apocalypse reduce the existential threat of nuclear war and
than ever. In so doing, board members are unchecked climate change. They can seize the
explicitly warning leaders and citizens around the opportunity to make a safer and saner world.
world that the international security situation is
now more dangerous than it has ever been, even at 2017 IT IS TWO AND A HALF MINUTES
the height of the Cold War. TO MIDNIGHT For the last two years, the
minute hand of the Doomsday Clock stayed
2019 IT IS STILL 2 MINUTES TO set at three minutes before the hour, the closest it
MIDNIGHT The “new abnormal” that we had been to midnight since the early 1980s. In its
describe, and that the world now inhabits, two most recent annual announcements on the
is unsustainable and extremely dangerous. The Clock, the Science and Security Board warned:
world security situation can be improved, if “The probability of global catastrophe is very high,
leaders seek change and citizens demand it. It is and the actions needed to reduce the risks of
two minutes to midnight, but there is no reason the disaster must be taken very soon.” In 2017, we nd
Doomsday Clock cannot move away from the danger to be even greater, the need for action
catastrophe. It has done so in the past, because more urgent. It is two and a half minutes to
wise leaders acted— under pressure from midnight, the Clock is ticking, global danger looms.
informed and engaged citizens around the world. Wise public o cials should act immediately,
Today, citizens in every country can use the power guiding humanity away from the brink. If they do
of the Internet to ght against social media not, wise citizens must step forward and lead the
disinformation and improve the long-term way.
prospects of their children and grandchildren.
They can insist on facts, and discount nonsense. 2016 IT IS STILL 3 MINUTES TO
They can demand action to reduce the existential MIDNIGHT “Last year, the Science and
threat of nuclear war and unchecked climate Security Board moved the Doomsday Clock
change. Given the inaction of their leaders to date, forward to three minutes to midnight, noting: ‘The
citizens of the world should make a loud and clear probability of global catastrophe is very high, and
demand: #RewindTheDoomsdayClock. the actions needed to reduce the risks of disaster
must be taken very soon.’ That probability has not
2018 IT IS 2 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT been reduced. The Clock ticks. Global danger
The failure of world leaders to address the looms. Wise leaders should act—immediately.”
largest threats to humanity’s future is
lamentable—but that failure can be reversed. It is 2015 IT IS 3 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT
two minutes to midnight, but the Doomsday Clock “Unchecked climate change, global nuclear
has ticked away from midnight in the past, and weapons modernizations, and outsized
during the next year, the world can again move it nuclear weapons arsenals pose extraordinary and
further from apocalypse. The warning the Science undeniable threats to the continued existence
and Security Board now sends is clear, the danger of humanity, and world leaders have failed to
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 18
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