U.S. Supply Chains & Inflation - Consumers are growing increasingly price conscious as inflation's grip tightens - Morning Consult

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U.S. Supply Chains & Inflation - Consumers are growing increasingly price conscious as inflation's grip tightens - Morning Consult
ANALYST REPORT

  U.S. Supply
  Chains & Inflation
  Consumers are growing increasingly price
  conscious as inflation’s grip tightens

                 MAY 2022

© 2022 Morning Consult. All rights reserved.
U.S. Supply Chains & Inflation - Consumers are growing increasingly price conscious as inflation's grip tightens - Morning Consult
ABOUT THIS REPORT

Morning Consult’s monthly U.S. Supply Chains & Inflation Report provides a detailed assessment
of U.S. adults’ perception of supply chain disruptions and inflation, along with the impact of both
on consumer purchasing behavior.

Businesses and investors rely on this report to understand emerging trends in consumer demand
and shopping patterns across demographics.

The report draws on Morning Consult Economic Intelligence, a high-frequency, global economic
dataset reflecting more than 19,000 daily economic surveys across 44 countries.

                                                                                                      2
U.S. Supply Chains & Inflation - Consumers are growing increasingly price conscious as inflation's grip tightens - Morning Consult
TABLE OF CONTENTS

4      Summary

8      Supply Chain Indexes of Consumer Inflation Pressures

16     Consumer Response to Inflation

21     Supply Chain Disruption

26     Methodology

                                                              3
U.S. Supply Chains & Inflation - Consumers are growing increasingly price conscious as inflation's grip tightens - Morning Consult
SECTION 1

SUMMARY
U.S. Supply Chains & Inflation - Consumers are growing increasingly price conscious as inflation's grip tightens - Morning Consult
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

        Consumers became more        With inflation still elevated,      Persistent supply chain
         price sensitive in April,   consumer spending growth            disruptions continue to
      increasingly trading down to    is showing signs of losing        impact the availability of
          cheaper alternatives.           some momentum.              essential goods like groceries.

                                                                                                        5
U.S. Supply Chains & Inflation - Consumers are growing increasingly price conscious as inflation's grip tightens - Morning Consult
SUMMARY

As inflation concerns weigh on        Inflation and supply chain disruptions are              of consumers either delayed or abandoned
                                      increasingly influencing purchasing decisions.          purchases as a result of higher-than-expected
consumer purchasing behavior, it
                                      Four of the 5 indexes that make up Morning              prices. This was the case in April for the vast
is critical to understand the         Consult’s newly developed Supply Chain Indexes          majority of all the goods and services tracked.
relationship between supply and       of Consumer Inflation Pressures increased last          Affordability concerns contributed to changes in

price dynamics and their              month, signaling rising inflationary impacts for the    purchasing behavior in other ways, such as an
                                      consumer. High prices are making certain items          increase in trading down to less expensive
implications for consumer
                                      increasingly unaffordable, discouraging purchases       alternatives, especially for services and
spending and overall growth. Even     or leading consumers to buy cheaper alternatives.       discretionary goods.
if monetary policy measures to        Meanwhile, several factors — including geopolitical
                                                                                              Supply chain disruptions continue to plague
tame inflation are successful,        disruption, lingering pandemic impacts and tight
                                                                                              groceries, vehicles and home-related products.
                                      labor markets — continue to restrict the availability
already high prices are likely to     and accessibility of certain goods and services.
                                                                                              A growing share of consumers reported having

remain elevated for some time.                                                                trouble obtaining products or services in April.
                                      In April, high prices deterred more purchases and       Factors new and old continue to disrupt the
Consumers’ response to inflation
                                      led consumers to pursue cheaper substitutes.            production and distribution of certain items:
is therefore likely to play a major   From March to April, the biggest increase in the five   Geopolitical unrest in Ukraine and pandemic-
role in shaping the outlook for the   Supply Chain Indexes of Consumer Inflation              related lockdowns in China are roiling supply

U.S. economy.                         Pressures was the one for price sensitivity. An         chains for food and other goods, while the global
                                      increase in this index signifies that a growing share   chip shortage continues to hamper auto production.

                                                                                                                                                   6
U.S. Supply Chains & Inflation - Consumers are growing increasingly price conscious as inflation's grip tightens - Morning Consult
Views on current buying conditions remain negative as inflation continues to climb
               4-week % change in sentiment indicators, 5-day moving average                                           % change in real personal consumer expenditures, by category

                     Current buying conditions                 Index of Consumer Sentiment                                    Durables       Nondurables         Services           Total
        10%
                                                                                                               2.0%
         5%                                                                                                     1.5%
                                                                                                                1.0%
                                                                                                               0.5%
         0%
                                                                                                               0.0%
                                                                                                              -0.5%
        -5%                                                                                                    -1.0%
                                                                                                               -1.5%
       -10%                                                                                                   -2.0%
           Sep ‘21      Oct ‘21      Nov ‘21   Dec ‘21   Jan ‘22   Feb ‘22 Mar ‘22      Apr ‘22                          Sep ‘21   Oct ‘21   Nov ‘21   Dec ‘21   Jan ‘22      Feb ‘22       Mar ‘22
                                                             Source: Morning Consult Economic Intelligence                                                  Source: Haver, Bureau of Economic Analysis

      As supply chain disruptions persisted, inflation climbed to a 40-year high of                          A closer look at self-reported purchasing patterns in our proprietary Supply
      8.5% in March. Both overall consumer sentiment and views on current buying                             Chains & Inflation Survey shows that consumers are growing increasingly price
      conditions have trended lower in step with rising inflation since September.                           sensitive in the current inflationary environment, with a growing tendency to
      Despite these headwinds, consumer spending expanded in the first three                                 delay purchases or trade down to less-expensive products and services. With
      months of 2022, led by spending on services. However, going into April, the                            inflation expected to remain elevated throughout the remainder of the year,
      momentum in consumer spending showed some signs of dissipating in                                      evaluating how U.S. adults respond to rising prices and reduced inventory will
      Morning Consult data under the strain of high inflation.                                               be critical to understanding the path of consumer spending going forward.

U.S. Supply Chains and Inflation | May 2022                                                                                                                                                              7
U.S. Supply Chains & Inflation - Consumers are growing increasingly price conscious as inflation's grip tightens - Morning Consult
SECTION 2

SUPPLY CHAIN INDEXES OF
CONSUMER INFLATION PRESSURES
U.S. Supply Chains & Inflation - Consumers are growing increasingly price conscious as inflation's grip tightens - Morning Consult
Measuring the impact of supply chain disruptions and inflation on consumers
                                                           OUR FRAMEWORK                                Morning Consult’s Supply Chain
                                                                                                        Indexes of Consumer Inflation
                                                                                Price was close to or   Pressures aim to measure the degree to
                                                                                 less than expected     which U.S. consumers are impacted by
                                                                                                        supply chain disruptions and their
                                               Did not
                                              consider                          Price was higher than   resulting price effects by evaluating
                                              purchase                                expected
                                                                    Purchased                           how consumers adapt their purchasing
            Product/                                                                                    behaviors over time.
             service
                                                                                  Purchased lower-
                                                                                  priced alternative    We ask U.S. adults a series of related
                                              Considered                                                questions (shown to the left) that are
                                               purchase
                                                                                                        designed to gauge both the availability
                                                                                                        and the prices of various goods and
                                                                                 Price was too high
                                                                                                        services relative to their expectations.
                                                                      Did not                           This information is then summarized
                                                                     purchase       Product was         into five indexes capturing different
                                                                                    unavailable
                                                                                                        aspects of purchasing behavior and
                                                                                                        compared over time.
                                                                                    Other reason

U.S. Supply Chains and Inflation | May 2022                                                                                                        9
U.S. Supply Chains & Inflation - Consumers are growing increasingly price conscious as inflation's grip tightens - Morning Consult
Translating survey responses into index scores
                                                                                                         We measure the degree to which
                               Our Five Indexes Summarizing Consumer Purchasing Behavior                 consumers were unable to complete a
                                                                                                         desired purchase due to limited supply
                                                                                                         (Product Unavailability) or price (Price
                                                Did not purchase because product was unavailable minus
        Product Unavailability                                                                           Sensitivity). Or, for purchases that were
                                                purchased for price close to or less than expected
                                                                                                         completed, those that resulted in trading
                                                                                                         down to a cheaper priced alternative
                                                Did not purchase because price was too high minus        (Substitutability), required greater effort
        Price Sensitivity
                                                purchased for higher-than-expected price
                                                                                                         to find and secure an item (Purchasing
                                                                                                         Difficulty) or were slow to arrive
                                                Purchased lower-priced alternative minus                 (Delivery Delays).
        Substitutability
                                                did not purchase
                                                                                                         All five indexes are “scored,” with
                                                                                                         balanced shares of positive and
                                                Reported difficulty finding certain items minus          negatives responses captured by a score
        Purchasing Difficulty
                                                did not report difficulty finding certain items          of zero. Positive/negative values of each
                                                                                                         index then denote more/less of a
                                                Deliveries were slower than last month minus             purchasing behavior. Further details can
        Delivery Delays                                                                                  be found in the Methodology section.
                                                deliveries were faster than last month

U.S. Supply Chains and Inflation | May 2022                                                                                                            10
SUPPLY CHAIN INDEX OF CONSUMER INFLATION PRESSURES KEY TAKEAWAYS

1      Supply tightness and consumer inflationary pressure increased in April,
       with price sensitivity, purchasing difficulty, substitutability and delivery
       delays all up from the previous month.

2      By category, services registered the largest jump in price sensitivity, while
       essential goods grew increasingly scarce.

3      Lower-income adults were more impacted by supply chain disruptions
       and inflation in April, but high earners registered the largest net increases
       from the prior month.

                                                                                       11
Price sensitivity spiked and trading down picked up in April
                               Supply Chain Indexes of Consumer Inflation Pressures, U.S. adults                               • Consumers became increasingly price
                                                                                                                                 sensitive in April, as supply chain
                                                                  Mar '22    Apr '22                                             disruptions continued to put upward
                                                                                                                                 pressure on prices.

                                                        10.7                                                                   • In response to higher prices, consumers
                                                                                                                      9.2        also exhibited a growing propensity to trade
                                                                                                              6.5                down, with a rising share adjusting their
                                                                                                                                 purchases toward lower-priced substitutes.
      More

                                                                            2.3                                                • While product availability increased slightly,
                                                                                                                                 signaling some alleviation of supply chain
      Less

                                                                                                                                 disruptions, inflationary pressures persist.
                 -0.6                                              -0.4
                                               -1.4                                                                              Both purchasing difficulty and delivery
                             -2.4                                                                                                delays increased from a month ago.
                                                                                                                                 Together, these shifts suggest continued
                                                                                                 -6.4                            shortages and pricing pressure for the
                                                                                         -7.5
                                                                                                                                 affected product categories.
                 Unavailability               Price sensitivity   Substitutability   Purchasing difficulty   Delivery delays

      Source: Morning Consult Economic Intelligence

U.S. Supply Chains and Inflation | May 2022                                                                                                                                       12
Purchasing behavior for discretionary goods and services was most impacted in April
                          Supply Chain Indexes of Consumer Inflation Pressures, subindexes by category                                  Supply chain disruptions and inflationary
                                                                                                                                        pressures impact various goods and
                      Unavailability          Price Sensititivy     Substitutability       Purchasing Difficulty      Delivery Delays   services differently. The spike in price
                                                                                                                                        sensitivity and increase in trading down
                                              18.6                                                           18.4                       behavior in April largely impacted
                                                                                                                                        discretionary goods and services.
                                                     9.6                                   9.2
                                                                        6.3                                                             Consumers showed less price sensitivity
                                                                  5.1                                  5.0
     More

                                                                                                                     4.0                and were less willing to substitute for
                                                                              0.3
                                                                                                                                        nondiscretionary goods. However, due to
                                      -0.6                                                                                              supply constraints, these goods were also
     Less

                                                                                    -6.4                                   -5.5         far and away the most difficult to purchase
                               -9.3                                                                                                     in April, with extensive delivery delays.
                                                                                                                                        Services exhibited the most price sensitivity
                                                                                                                                        and substitutability in April, emphasizing
                      -26.1                                                                                                             how consumers can delay or substitute
                                                                                                                                        these purchases much more readily than
                                                                                                                                        nondiscretionary goods.

                        Nondiscretionary goods                      Discretionary goods                            Services

      Source: Morning Consult Economic Intelligence

U.S. Supply Chains and Inflation | May 2022                                                                                                                                             13
Essential goods grew scarcer in April and price sensitivity jumped for services
                Net change from March to April 2022, by category                      Nondiscretionary goods had several large shifts in index scores from March to April. Most
                                                                                      notable, however, was a jump in purchasing difficulty, driven by a large increase in reported
             Unavailability                   Price Sensitivity    Substitutability
                                                                                      difficulty finding various groceries. Consumers have continued to report worsening grocery
             Purchasing                       Delivery Delays                         shortages even as backlogs ease for many other categories. Product unavailability increased
             Difficulty
                                                                                      as well, also driven by more limited grocery stocks, as did price sensitivity although it
                                                                   10.1               remained lower overall than for discretionary goods and services.
      Nondiscretionary                                              10.8
                                                                                      Consumer responses for discretionary goods were little changed from March, with the
                goods                               0.3
                                                                               16.8   biggest shift occurring in product availability. Unlike essential goods, discretionary goods
                                                       1.8                            showed easing supply constraints in April, as products like exercise equipment and
                                                                                      electronics became more readily available. Price sensitivity increased less for discretionary
                                       -5.5                                           goods than for other categories but maintained its lead over essential products since
                                                          3.3
           Discretionary                                                              consumers facing affordability concerns are less willing to splurge on items that aren’t vital
                                                     0.9
                  goods
                                                     1.1                              to household budgets.
                                                         2.7
                                                                                      On the other hand, price sensitivity surged higher for services in April, as did substitutability.
                                        -0.8                                          Even as a growing share of spending is being directed back toward services, consumers are
                  Services                                                    16.0    still adjusting their purchases on the margin to cope with inflation. Rising prices for food, fuel
                                                             4.1                      and labor are driving up costs for restaurant meals, vacations and other services. Homes and
                                     -2.3
                                                                                      apartments — categorized as services since they fulfill the need for shelter — are more
                                                                                      difficult to afford amid rising interest rates and limited inventory. As a result, consumers are
                                              Less More                               deferring purchases until prices are more affordable or opting for less expensive alternatives.
      Source: Morning Consult Economic Intelligence

U.S. Supply Chains and Inflation | May 2022                                                                                                                                                14
Lower-income adults remain the most impacted by supply chain disruptions and inflation,
      but higher earners partially closed the gap in April
                                                                Supply Chain Indexes of Consumer Inflation Pressures, by income

                                Unavailability                 Price Sensitivity        Substitutability              Purchasing Difficulty      Delivery Delays

                            Less than $50k                                                $50k-$99k                                                  $100k or More

                                                     14.2                                                      14.2
                                                                              9.8
          7.0                                            7.7                                                  6.3                                                                 7.6
         4.5                                         3.9                                                                                                                          4.4
                                                                               2.9                                                                                                4.3
         3.7
                                                     -0.3                                                     -1.1                     -1.5                                       -0.4
           -1.5                                                                                                                       -3.3
                                                                             -4.7                              -3.1                     -4.6
                                                                               -6.0                           -5.8
            -7.2                                     -7.6
                                                                              -8.5                                                    -11.6                                        -9.2
               March                             April                                                                                  -11.8
                                                                                                                                                Source: Morning Consult Economic Intelligence

      In both April and March, the purchasing behavior of adults from higher-earning             In April, affordability concerns spread higher along the income spectrum, with
      households was less impacted by inflation than that of their lower-earning                 the gap between high- and low-income earners narrowing in several of the
      peers. Lower-earning households tend to have less money in savings and thus                dimensions of purchasing behavior captured in our indexes. Adults with
      are more financially vulnerable. This group served as the proverbial “canary in            household income of $100,000 or more registered increases for all five
      the coal mine” for the jump in gas and food prices in March.                               indexes, including the largest jump in price sensitivity.

U.S. Supply Chains and Inflation | May 2022                                                                                                                                                     15
SECTION 3

CONSUMER RESPONSE TO INFLATION
INFLATION KEY TAKEAWAYS

      1               Most product and service categories registered an increase in price
                      sensitivity in April.

      2              In addition to deferring or abandoning purchases in response to high
                     prices, a growing share of consumers are choosing cheaper alternatives.

      3               Gas prices remain a top concern for consumers, causing many to change
                      their routines to save on fuel costs.

U.S. Supply Chains and Inflation | May 2022                                                    17
                                                                                               17
Consumers showed higher price sensitivity for most goods and services last month
                                      Net change in share of adults who reported not purchasing                   Price sensitivity increased for most products
                                   various items because the price was too high in March vs. in April             and services in April as elevated inflation
                                                                                                                  continued to pressure household budgets.
            Personal care goods or services
             A used car, pickup, van or SUV                                                                       The biggest increases in price sensitivity
                                   Education                                                                      tended to occur with items that are easier to
         Paper goods such as paper towels                                                                         defer purchasing and for which finding
                        Health care services                                                                      cheaper substitutes is difficult. For example,
              Restaurant meals and takeout                                                                        personal care services like haircuts can often
        Specific types of groceries and food                                                                      be delayed a few weeks without much
                                    Furniture                                                                     disruption, and used vehicles are already the
                        Vacations and travel                                                                      lower-cost substitute to new vehicles, meaning
                                    Gasoline                                                                      they cannot be traded down.
              A new car, pickup, van or SUV
                                                                                                                  Price sensitivity declined for some home-related
                       A house or apartment
                                                                                                                  categories such as home improvement
                Exercise & sports equipment
                                                                                                                  supplies, potentially a sign that some
                            Clothing/apparel
                                                                                                                  consumers are prioritizing improvements to
                           Home appliances
                                                                                                                  their current homes as new home purchases
       Electronics, computers or cellphones
                                                                                                                  become increasingly less affordable.
               Home improvement supplies
                                                    -15        -10        -5          0          5      10   15
                                                                                                                             Source: Morning Consult Economic Intelligence

U.S. Supply Chains and Inflation | May 2022                                                                                                                                  18
Consumers became more price sensitive in April, with a growing inclination to trade down
                                   Net changes in Substitutability Index vs. Price Sensitivity Index, March-April 2022                                Not only are consumers responding to high prices
                                                                     8                                                                                by delaying or opting out of purchases, but a
                               I                   Home appliances
                                                                                                                                            II        growing share are increasingly substituting
                                                                                 Health care services
                                                                                                                    A house or     A used car,        cheaper alternatives for products and services that
                                                                     6                                              apartment      pickup, van or
                                                                                                                                   SUV
                                                                                                                                                      they originally sought to purchase when faced with
     More trading down

                                   Exercise & sports
                                   equipment                                              Education
                                                                                                                                                      higher-than-expected prices.
                                                                     4                                   Restaurant meals and
                                                 Clothing/apparel
                                                                                                         takeout                                      Both homes and used vehicles saw relatively large
                                    Electronics, computers                                            Paper goods such as                             increases in both price sensitivity and substitution
                                    or cellphones                    2
                                                                                                      paper towels
                                            Vacations and travel              Furniture                                                               behavior in April. Those that want but don’t
                                                                                                                   Specific types of
                                                                                                                   groceries and food                 urgently need to move or purchase a car are
                                                                     0
                         -20                     -10                      0                        10                  20                        30
                                                                                                                                                      putting off those purchases, and those with more
     Less trading down

                                                                                            Gasoline
                                                                                                                                                      immediate needs are choosing the most
                                                                                                             Personal care goods
                                                                     -2                                                                               affordable option available. These behaviors are
                                                                                                             or services
                                                                              A new car, pickup,
                                                                              van or SUV                                                              already showing up in spending patterns and
                                                                     -4                                                                               prices: Rising mortgage rates are showing signs of
                                                                                                                                                      dragging down housing demand and used vehicle
                                                                     -6                                                                               price growth has begun losing momentum.

                                       Home improvement
                           III                                                                                                              IV
                                       supplies                      -8
                                                        Less price sensitivity More price sensitivity

U.S. Supply Chains and Inflation | May 2022                                                                                                                                                                  19
Fewer adults cut back on driving in April, but nearly all who did blame high prices
               U.S. adults were asked if they drove more, less or about the same                   Share of U.S. adults who selected the following as the
                                 as usual over the past month                                          reason for driving less over the past month:

              I drove more             I drove my       I drove less     Don't know                              February        March    April
                                       typical amount

            April      10%                     50%                     35%            6%               82%

                                                                                                 68%
          March         9%                    46%                      39%            6%
                                                                                           57%

      February          9%                     53%                      30%       8%
                                                                                                               33%
                                                                                                                     27%
      Gas prices reached a recent peak in March but remained elevated
                                                                                                                           18%                    6%        6%
      throughout April. Fewer consumers restricted driving miles in April compared                                                  14%                             3%
                                                                                                                                          11%                             1%
      with the previous month, but those who did overwhelmingly cited gas prices
      as the reason why.                                                                    Gas prices         My routine was             Other               Don't know
                                                                                            were higher      different last month
      Restricted driving bears implications not only for gas spending, but for other
      categories as well. Cutting nonessential trips implies consumers are spending
      more time at home rather than visiting shopping or entertainment destinations,                                                 Source: Morning Consult Economic Intelligence
      potentially shifting or reducing discretionary spending allocations.

U.S. Supply Chains and Inflation | May 2022                                                                                                                                          20
SECTION 4

SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTION
SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTION KEY TAKEAWAYS

1      Grocery remains the category most affected by supply disruptions,
       with war in Ukraine likely to continue impacting global food stocks.

2      Purchase outcomes for hard-to-find products vary depending on the
       nature of the good or service: Essentials like groceries are typically
       tracked down regardless of search difficulty, whereas purchases of some
       services or discretionary items are more easily deferred or abandoned.

3      Delivery delays worsened in April, with home-related products like
       furniture or home improvement supplies among the most impacted.

                                                                                 22
Grocery category remains the most impacted by supply chain disruptions
      Groceries continue to be the category most impacted by          Share of prospective buyers who reported experiencing shortages in April, U.S. adults
      shortages, with about 6 in 10 adults who shopped for
      food reporting difficulty finding certain items in April.     Specific types of groceries and food                                                          61%
      The Ukraine conflict exacerbated supply chain
                                                                                  A house or apartment                                      42%
      disruptions and prices for a slew of raw agricultural
      products (including wheat, oils and fertilizers), adding to     Paper goods such as paper towels                               36%
      supply pressures for various items. As disruptions flow
                                                                          A new car, pickup, van or SUV                             36%
      downstream to finished food products, consumers are
      likely to continue facing shortages.                               A used car, pickup, van or SUV                           34%
      Homes or apartments remain one of the most difficult-to-             Home improvement supplies                             33%
      find items among those tracked. Demand is showing
      signs of softening amid rising interest rates, helping to     Electronics, computers or cellphones               24%
      ease competition over homes. But inventory remains                              Home appliances                  23%
      limited. New construction starts have picked up in recent
      months, but completions are lagging as enduring labor                                    Furniture              22%
      and material shortages hinder the pace of building.
                                                                            Exercise & sports equipment         15%

                                                                                       Clothing/apparel        13%

                                                                                                                             Source: Morning Consult Economic Intelligence

U.S. Supply Chains and Inflation | May 2022                                                                                                                                  23
Higher search effort often—but not always—associated with unavailability
                                     Net changes in Unavailability Index vs. Purchasing Difficulty Index, March-April 2022                         For most goods and services tracked, product
                                                              20                                                                                   unavailability declined from March to April,
                              I                                                                                                          II        meaning a smaller share of prospective buyers
                                                                                                                                                   opted out of purchasing items because they
                                                                                                                                                   were out of stock or unavailable.
                                                                                                                                                   Product unavailability is related to but not
      Less available

                                                       A new car,                                  Home improvement                                always aligned with purchasing difficulty. When
                                                       pickup, van       Furniture                 supplies               Specific types of        consumers report difficulty finding certain items,
                                                       or SUV                                                             groceries and food
                                                                                                                                                   it is often due to limited supply, explaining the
                                   A house or
                                   apartment                                                                                                       positive correlation (0.57) for monthly shifts in
                                                                0                                                                                  these behaviors for most items.
                       -10                  -5                       0                5                  10                15                 20
      More available

                                                                          Home appliances               Electronics, computers                     However, if consumers who initially encounter
                                   Paper goods such
                                                                                                        or cellphones                              unstocked shelves eventually track down the
                                   as paper towels                       A used car, pickup,
                                                                         van or SUV          Clothing/apparel                                      desired item, that extra search effort is captured
                                                                                                                                                   in the purchasing difficulty index, whereas only
                                                                                                                                                   nonpurchases show up in the unavailability index.
                                                Exercise & sports                                                                                  This is the case for essentials like groceries and
                                                equipment
                                                                                                                                                   household paper products, which rated as hard to
                             III                                                                                                         IV        find but were usually also purchased.
                                                              -20
                                                             Less difficult to find       More difficult to find

U.S. Supply Chains and Inflation | May 2022                                                                                                                                                             24
Housing-related products faced longest delivery delays in April
                 Delivery speed of goods ordered online in April relative to March, U.S. adults                    Share who said deliveries were slower less share who
                                                                                                                      said deliveries were faster, selected categories

              Faster than last month                About the same as last month    Slower than last month         Home improvement supplies     Home appliances      Furniture
                                                                                                             0.3

               Home improvement supplies                   23%             37%                 40%
                                                                                                             0.2

                               Home appliances              23%             38%                 38%
                                                                                                             0.1

                                              Furniture      27%             37%                36%
                                                                                                             0.0
                                                                                                                     Sep '21 Oct '21 Nov '21 Jan '22 Feb '22 Mar '22 Apr '22
               Exercise & sports equipment                  25%              39%                36%
                                                                                                             Among U.S. adults who ordered furniture, appliances, home
                       Electronics, computers
                                                             27%              40%                33%         improvement supplies or groceries in April, more than 1 in 3
                                or cellphones
                                                                                                             reported slower delivery times compared with the previous
                               Specific types of
                             groceries and food            22%               46%                 32%         month. Home-related categories also registered higher
                                                                                                             purchasing difficulty scores from March to April, indicating
       Paper goods such as paper towels                     24%               44%                 31%        greater scarcity. Price shocks may also continue to affect
                                                                                                             large durable goods: Commodity price growth exacerbated
                                Clothing/apparel           20%                51%                 29%        by the war in Ukraine could lead to higher material costs for
                                                                                                             items like appliances.
      Source: Morning Consult Economic Intelligence

U.S. Supply Chains and Inflation | May 2022                                                                                                                                       25
SECTION 5

METHODOLOGY
Methodology: Supply Chains and Inflation Survey

      Morning Consult’s U.S. Supply Chain Survey measures the impact of                   •   Start date: September 2021
      shortages and rising prices on consumers and their purchasing habits. Each
      month, respondents are asked questions about which products they are                •   Frequency: Monthly (except December 2021)
      having difficulty procuring, how long they are waiting for deliveries and how       •   Fielding Period: Midmonth
      they are responding to supply disruptions and price increases for various
      goods and services.                                                                 •   Release Date: End of month

      The survey is fielded on a monthly basis among a representative sample of           •   Sample size: 2,200
      2,200 adults in the U.S., with a subset of supply chain questions included on
      the monthly Geopolitical Risk Survey. U.S. supply chain data is collected in        •   Geographic coverage: United States
      the first half of each month, with topline findings reported in Morning Consult’s
      Monthly Supply Chain & Inflation Report.

U.S. Supply Chains and Inflation | May 2022                                                                                               27
Process for converting survey responses into indexes tracking purchasing behavior

                                                             When you were purchasing the following items (clothing/apparel), which
                                                                        of the following best describes the outcome?
       Example: Price Sensitivity score
                                                                 I purchased the item I wanted for a price close to or less than what
       for clothing/apparel category                                                     I’d expected (42%)

                                                                                                                                               Price Sensitivity score for
                                                                    I purchased the item for a price higher than expected (23%)                 clothing/apparel (13%) =
         Have you purchased or considered
        purchasing goods from the following
         categories (clothing/apparel) in the                                                                                                 I did not purchase the item
                                                of the 46%           I purchased a similar but less expensive alternative (10%)
                 last month or not?                                                                                                         because the price was too high
                                                                                                                                                         (36%)
                  Yes, purchased (46%)
                                                                                                                                                         minus

            Yes, considered purchasing but                   When you decided not to purchase the following items (clothing/apparel),       I purchased the item for a price
                did not purchase (17%)                                which of the following best describes the outcome?                      higher than expected (23%)
                                                of the 17%
                                                                 I did not purchase the item because the price was too high (36%)
                 No, have not considered
                    purchasing (37%)
                                                                     I did not purchase the item because it was out of stock or
                                                                                         unavailable (28%)                              Price Sensitivity subindex = Average of
                                                                                                                                        all category Price Sensitivity scores,
                                                                      I did not purchase the item for some other reason (36%)           weighted by share of total spending from
                                                                                                                                        the Consumer Price Index as shown on
                                                                                                                                        the next slide for each category

U.S. Supply Chains and Inflation | May 2022                                                                                                                                        28
Survey categories covered along with their weights in the indexes
                                                                                                                                                                Purchasing
                                               Survey category                    Product Unavailability Price Sensitivity           Substitutability                              Delivery Delays
                                                                                                                                                                 Difficulty
                                                Home appliances                           0.3%                     0.3%                    0.3%                     0.5%                  1.7%
                                   Electronics, computers or cellphones                    1.4%                    1.4%                    1.4%                     2.0%                  7.3%
                                         Furniture/home furnishings                        1.3%                    1.3%                    1.3%                     1.8%                  6.6%
                                                Clothing/apparel                          3.2%                     3.2%                    3.2%                     4.5%                 16.8%

                                    Specific types of groceries and food                  10.8%                   10.8%                   10.8%                    15.0%                 55.8%

                                 Supplies for home repairs, improvements
                                                                                           1.2%                    1.2%                    1.2%                     1.7%                  6.4%
                                               or renovations
                                        Exercise & sports equipment                       0.7%                     0.7%                    0.7%                     1.0%                  3.9%
                            Paper goods, such as paper towels or toilet paper             0.3%                     0.3%                    0.3%                     0.4%                  1.4%

                               A new car, pickup, van or sport utility vehicle            5.4%                     5.4%                    5.4%                     7.5%                    --

                               A used car, pickup, van or sport utility vehicle           5.5%                     5.5%                    5.5%                     7.6%                    --
                                              A house or apartment                        41.8%                   41.8%                    41.8%                   58.0%                    --
                                                    Gasoline                              4.9%                     4.9%                    4.9%                       --                    --
                                        Restaurant meals and takeout                      6.9%                     6.9%                    6.9%                       --                    --
                                              Vacations and travel                        2.0%                    2.0%                     2.0%                       --                    --
                                      Personal care items and services                     1.6%                    1.6%                    1.6%                       --                    --
                                               Education or tuition                       3.4%                     3.4%                    3.4%                       --                    --
                                              Health care services                        9.2%                     9.2%                    9.2%                       --                   --

                                                                                           Weights derived from CPI relative spending importance, rebased so that the total for each index equals 100%.

U.S. Supply Chains and Inflation | May 2022                                                                                                                                                               29
Methodology: Geopolitical Risk Survey

      Morning Consult’s Geopolitical Risk Survey measures major geopolitical and              •   Start date: January 2021
      economic trends across the world’s largest markets, providing insights into hot
      button issues and early signals for policymakers in the public sector and               •   Frequency: Monthly
      decision-makers at multinational firms. It asks questions around inflation and          •   Fielding Period: Wednesday through Sunday in the last week of
      purchasing behavior; price expectations; financial resiliency; housing; ESG;                the month
      business climate; national security; and trust in political figures and institutions,
      both within and outside of the respondents’ home country.                               •   Release Date: First week of the following month

      The survey is conducted on a monthly basis among representative samples of              •   Sample size: 1,000 adults per country
      1,000 adults from 17 countries, including the United States. The survey was first
      run in January 2021. Data is collected in the last week of each month.                  •   Geographic coverage: 17 countries

      Starting in September 2021, the Geopolitical Risk Survey began asking adults
      which products they are having difficulty procuring and how they have adapted
      their buying behaviors when faced with delays and shortages.

U.S. Supply Chains and Inflation | May 2022                                                                                                                       30
Monthly Geopolitical Risk Survey sample sizes and start dates

                                                            Approx. Average
                           Country             Start Date   Monthly Sample                                                  Approx. Average
                                                                                              Country         Start Date
                                                                 Size                                                      Monthly Sample Size

                              United States    Jan 2021          1,000
                                                                                               Turkey         Mar 2022            1,000
                              Canada           Jan 2021          1,000        Middle East &
           Americas                                                              Africa
                              Mexico           Jan 2021          1,000                         South Africa   Mar 2022            1,000
                              Brazil           Jan 2021          1,000                         India          Jan 2021            1,000
                              United Kingdom   Jan 2021          1,000
                                                                                               Japan          Jan 2021            1,000
                              Germany          Jan 2021          1,000
                              France           Jan 2021          1,000         Asia Pacific    China          Jan 2021            1,000
             Europe
                              Italy            Jan 2021          1,000
                                                                                               South Korea    Jan 2021            1,000
                              Spain            Jan 2021          1,000
                              Russia           Jan 2021          1,000                         Australia      Jan 2021            1,000

U.S. Supply Chains and Inflation | May 2022                                                                                                      31
REPORT AUTHORS

                 SCOTT A. BRAVE                     LEARN MORE
                 Lead Consumer Spending Economist   MorningConsult.com

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                                                    @MorningConsult

                                                    MEDIA & SPEAKING
                 KAYLA BRUUN                        INQUIRIES
                                                    press@morningconsult.com
                 Economic Analyst

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