Weekly Equity Market Outlook TBC Capital Brokerage - June 20 24 - Power BI Desktop
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Power BI Desktop Weekly Equity Market Outlook TBC Capital Brokerage June 20 - 24
Power BI Desktop
Executive Summary
Chart of the Week Commodities Investment Themes
90 Day Rolling Correlation Between TLT and SPY
• Last week Federal Reserve published the results of this years Dodd-
40%
104.19 ▼ -0.49% Frank Act Stress test.
USD Index Weekly change
20%
• The main focus of global markets have been the record-high
107.62 ▼ -1.77% inflation and rising interest rates, that create fears of recession.
0%
Crude Oil Weekly change
-20%
• As the increasing interest rates make real estate less affordable to
-40% consumers, and the supply chain constraints limits the inventory –
21.19K ▲ 2.75% the demand for housing markets is believed to have peaked.
-60% Bitcoin Weekly change
-80%
• US consumer sentiment plunged in early June to the lowest on
1.83K ▼ -0.56% record as soaring inflation continued to batter household finances.
-100% Gold Weekly change
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Macro Update S&P 500 Performance YTD Weekly Sector Performance
Gauge on Market Conditions Through Surveys 0% -0.06%
Sector ◯ Change
80%
-1.46%
-3.44%
Consumer Discretionary ▲ 8.2%
60%
-5%
Health Care ▲ 8.1%
40%
Real Estate ▲ 7.7%
20%
-10% -10.35% Information Technology ▲ 7.3%
-9.80%
0%
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 -12.92% Utilities ▲ 7.2%
Bad Time to Buy Don’t Know Good Time to Buy -13.00% -12.95%
Communication Services ▲ 7.0%
-15%
Mortgage rates are directly tied to the increasing Fed Funds Rate which was Consumer Staples ▲ 6.6%
hiked by 0.75% nearly 2 weeks ago. As the FOMC tightens the economy, -18.68%
-18.06%
-18.45%
Financials ▲ 5.1%
mortgage rates are expected to follow. Consequently, Chairman Powell -20%
Industrials ▲ 4.2%
emphasized the focus that FOMC members have on the housing market as the
rising rate, declining inventories, low financing costs, and stable demand have -23.55% Materials ▲ 2.7%
increased prices of real estate across the country. Feb 2022 Mar 2022 Apr 2022 May 2022 Jun 2022 Energy ▼ -1.6%
Power BI Desktop
Macro Insights
Europe Struggles as Stagnation is Here
Contributions to the CPIH 12-month Inflation Rate • Last week emphasized the news and indicators of a gradual economic slowdown and an inflationary uptick in Europe, as
the U.K. CPI reached a 40 year high of 9.1% Y-o-Y, and 0.7% M-o-M. The Core CPI rose less than expected, by 5.9% better
Food and non-… Furniture an… Housing and … Other goods … Recreation … Restaurants … Transport Alcohol an… Clothing a… CPIH 12-…
8
than the expected and previous 6.0% and 6.2%, respectively.
• As the food prices increase dramatically, consumers are expecting higher wages – a pay demand – which also contributes
6
to the inflationary spiral. The strikes across U.K. also contribute to the supply chain crisis and worsen the overall situation of
increasing prices.
4
• The slowdown in activity is evident in Eurozone’s PMIs where both Manufacturing and Services indicators came below
forecasts and previous month’s results.
2 • Wells Fargo’s analysts expect the real disposable income to decline by 0.1% and toughen spending for consumers as they
are forced to use their savings or credit.
0 • If the inflationary pressures remain stronger than the fear of stagnation, the interest rates are still expected to increase,
initially by 25bps at ECB’s next meeting in July.
Jul 2020 Jan 2021 Jul 2021 Jan 2022
The Impact of Rising Interest Rates
• Mortgage rates are directly tied to the increasing Fed Funds Rate which was hiked by 0.75% nearly 2 weeks ago. As the FOMC Gauge on Market Conditions Through Surveys
tightens the economy, mortgage rates are expected to follow. 80%
• Consequently, Chairman Powell emphasized the focus that FOMC members have on the housing market as the rising rate,
declining inventories, low financing costs, and stable demand have increased prices of real estate across the country. 60%
• The drastic increase in fed funds rate has curbed the demand with the existing home sales continuing a 4th straight monthly
decline in May (3.4% lower). On the other hand, new home sales came in above expectations and revised up April’s results.
40%
• The increase in new home sales is caused by buyers’ desire to benefit from the currently moderate rates until they increase
considerably in the coming months, as April is theorized to have been the peak for new home sales in 2022.
20%
• According to analysts, as the inflation eventually comes down and FOMC returns to its long-term target, the prices are
expected to decline in the next 12-18 months.
0%
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Bad Time to Buy Don’t Know Good Time to BuyPower BI Desktop
Commodities and FX
USD Index Bitcoin (BTC)
• The USD Index decreased slightly last • The price of Bitcoin increased last week
▼ -0.49% 104.19 week, going from opening at 104.65 on ▲ 2.75% 21.19K as it went from opening at $20,501 on
USD Index Weekly change Last Price Bitcoing Weekly change Last Price
Monday to closing at 104.19 on Friday. A Monday to closing at $21,194 on Friday. A
106
low of 103.86 was observed on low of $19.827 was observed on Thursday.
Wednesday. 30K
• As analysts fear a potential recession, the
105 • The slight drop midweek was caused by relatively volatile instruments have fallen
the fear of a looming recession due to out of favor for investors which has led the
104 the incessant rate hikes imposed to curb 25K price of Bitcoin to drop to a third of all-
the soaring inflation. time highs.
103
• As the FOMC is expected to announce • Currently, the crypto giant is fluctuating
another 75bps hike in July, the USD 20K between the support level at roughly
Index will depend on the overall market $19,500 and resistance level at $20,500.
102
sentiment regarding a potential
Jun 05 Jun 12 Jun 19 recession. Jun 05 Jun 12 Jun 19
Crude Oil WTI Gold
• The price of a barrel of oil decreased • The price of an ounce of gold decreased
▼ -1.77% 107.62 last week as it went from opening at ▼ -0.56% 1.83K slightly last week as it went from
Crude Oil Weekly change Last Price Gold Weekly change Last Price
$110.54 on Monday to closing at $107.62 $1,839.70 on Monday to closing at
1,880
on Friday. A low of $101.53 was observed $1,830.30 on Friday. A low of $1,817.70
on Wednesday. 1,870 was observed on Friday.
120
• The drop midweek was caused by the • The drop midweek was caused by the
1,860
caution among investors due to Fed’s fears of further rate hikes that temporarily
115 rate hikes and American Petroleum 1,850 strengthened the dollar.
Institute’s report on unexpectedly high 1,840
• Despite a drop midweek, the precious
inventory buildup. metal was able to recover due to the
110
• The price will react to G7’s success of 1,830
slightly weakened dollar and the
capping Russia oil, indicated by German 1,820 expectations that G7 might impose
105 and French politicians. restrictions on Russian energy imports.
1,810
May 29 Jun 05 Jun 12 Jun 19 May 29 Jun 05 Jun 12 Jun 19Power BI Desktop
Chart of The Week
Russia-Ukraine War is Fuelling a Global Food Crisis
USD 5 Year Inflation Linked Swaps
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
90 Day Rolling Correlation Between TLT and SPY
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
-60%
-80%
-100%
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
• The presented chart illustrates US 5y inflation expectations, depicted as inflation swaps, and 90 day rolling correlation between bonds and stocks, calculated via using TLT and SPX returns.
• It is no doubt that the concept of negative correlation between bonds and stocks has served as a bedrock to portfolio-diversification in terms of multi-asset investing. However, the chart
suggests that the aforementioned characteristic, i.e. negative correlation, disappears once the inflation crosses 2.5% threshold in 5y inflation expectations.
• Explanation for this occurrence would be the Central Bank’s hawkish stance intended to tackle the increasing inflation that has surpassed its pre-determined objective of 2%. Given that under
such environment bond is no longer a hedging instrument, investors face quite challenging premise. As a result, recently, based on the significance of drawdowns, markets experienced the largest
‘financial wealth’’ destruction in history.Power BI Desktop
Investment Themes
Can Banks Survive Recession ? Reversing Monetary Policy
Minimum Tier 1 Capital Ratio Required According • Last week Federal Reserve published the results of this years Recession Probability • The main focus of global markets have been the record-high
to Fed Stress-test Dodd-Frank Act Stress test. Stress test took raised risk of inflation and rising interest rates, that create fears of recession.
recession into account and tested banks for severely adverse 30 Currently, the Federal reserve has hikes interest rates by 1.50%,
16.00
Morgan Stanley 11.40 scenarios. All 33 banks passed stress test but some of the largest with expectations of a 75 and 50 bps hikes at the upcoming
14.20
Goldman Sachs 8.40 universal financial institutions like JPM and BAC rendered slightly meetings.
HSBC 14.10 alarming results. 25 • As the markets are pricing-in the high interest rates, some
7.70
13.10
• "All in, while most of the regionals, trust banks and even analysts expect the hiking cycle to come to a standstill and
JPMorgan Chase 9.80 brokers were fine enough, 2022 results were a little tougher on reverse by the end of 2022, in order to stimulate the economy
12.40
33 banks 9.70 the universal banks and card companies than we expected," 20 and avoid a lasting recession.
Citigroup 12.20 Evercore ISI analyst Glenn Schorr wrote in a note to clients. • Powell’s unsure remarks on the possibility of a soft landing also
8.60
11.40 • As fears of recession is growing and more banks forecast increase fears of recession and create potential for a period of
Wells Fargo 8.60 15
inflation in near years the stability of the financial system is Quantitative Easing expected to start, by some, in early 2023.
10.60
Bank of America 7.60 bedrock of fast recovery and so called "soft landing". while most • As the probability of a recession increases due to a policy error,
US Bancorp 10.00
banks show good results JPM, C, BAC and WFC may need to Fed’s scope of contractionary decisions becomes limited. Much of
9.30 10
raise internal capital adequacy ratios and hold off stock buyback. this will depend on the upcoming CPI report which will show the
0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00
This premise can be unattractive for investors. effectiveness of current measures on cooling down prices.
Actual Minimum By FED Scenario Apr … Jul 2… Oct 2… Jan 2… Apr …
Housing Market Overheating US Consumer Sentiment Slumps to Record Low Amid Surging Inflation
National Association
Select or drag fields of Realtors, Housing Market
to populate this visual
• As the increasing interest rates make real estate less affordable Sentiment and Inflation Expectation • US consumer sentiment plunged in early June to the lowest on
Outlook to consumers, and the supply chain constraints limits the 5.5 record as soaring inflation continued to batter household
6K inventory – the demand for housing markets is believed to have 100 finances. The Index fell to 50.2 in June from 58.4 in May. This
peaked. 5.0 figure was weaker than all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of
5K
• During the last year, there was a significant disbalance between economists which had a median forecast of 58.1.
4K 90 4.5
supply and demand in the housing market which has caused the • The broad deterioration of sentiment may lead to reduced
3K
prices to increase significantly. Nevertheless, the contractionary spending and slow economic growth as high inflation erodes
4.0
monetary policy has led to a decline of 3.4% in existing home 80 consumer’s income. Additionally, survey respondents expect
2K sales and a 3.9% decline in pending home sales. inflation to rise 5.4% in 2023, up from 5.3% a month earlier, while
3.5
1K
• According to the Market Outlook, the percent of respondents long-term consumer Inflation expectations also climb.
70
who expect a Y-o-Y increase in buyer and seller traffic in the next • About 47% of households cited rising prices as the main factor
3.0
0K 3 months is 16% and 21%, respectively. These measures are for declining living standards over the past year, a share that has
Existing Housing New New Existing
significantly lower that last year’s 49% and 32%. A drop is 60 been exceeded once since 1981 during the Great Recession. Only
Home Starts, Single… Home Home 2.5
Sales, Thous… Sales, Prices, Prices,
evident even compared to April’s data. 13% of households expect their incomes to rise more than
Thous… USD Thous… Thous… Thous… • Similarly, the number of home showings is down 24%, which inflation. Thus, Inflation is exceeding wage growth, prompting
50 2.0
USD USD USD USD indicates that the demand for housing is cooling off as buyers 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 many Americans to dip into savings and take on more debt.
Q1 2023 Q2 2022 Q2 2023 Q3 2022 Q4 2022 are less inclined to purchase during a high-rate environment. Consumer Sentiment Index Inflation Expectation (Next Year)Power BI Desktop
Sector Snapshot
16.11 7.28% 33.60 25.20 STOCKS TO WATCH TICKER MARKET CAP CLOSE CHANGE P/E EV/EBITDA
Information Technology Market Cap (Trillions) Weekly Change P/E EV/EBITDA
Apple Inc AAPL 2,306.95bn 131.56 0.00% 21.85 16.51
Sector Comparison to S&P 500 Performance • Morgan Stanley downgraded Zendesk (ZEN) from over weight to equal weight as Microsoft Corp MSFT 1,986.06bn 247.65 0.00% 24.82 17.46
0%
analysts see fewer near-term catalysts for shares. Adobe Inc ADBE 180.87bn 360.79 0.00% 24.11 18.43
• Goldman Sachs upgraded Wolfspeed (WOLF) from neutral to Buy, price increased Activision Blizzard Inc ATVI 60.69bn 74.71 0.00% 20.14 13.13
-5%
by 13.5% on Friday. Analysts saying WOLF’s growth story tied to EVs is likely well Snowflake Inc-Class A SNOW 47.77bn 119.38 0.00% 404.74 202.13
appreciated by investors given the company’s ongoing investment and backlog Zendesk Inc ZEN 9.17bn 55.87 0.00% 71.37 44.07
-10%
growth in this space over the past couple of years. Wolfspeed Inc WOLF 8.79bn 60.57 0.00% 703.86 46.13
• JPMorgan upgraded Snowflake (SNOW) to Overweight with new price target at Himax Technologies Inc-Adr HIMX 1.65bn 8.58 0.00% 5.40 3.41
-15%
$165 saying at its core, is a massively scalable, highly elastic, cloud-native data
warehouse solution that has begun to disrupt the cloud data management space
-20%
• Himax Technologies (HIMX) published weaker revenue and EPS guidance for the
second quarter of the year due to weaker macro environment and slowing end
-25% ETFs TO WATCH TICKER TOTAL ASSETS CLOSE CHANGE YTD Expense
market demands.
-30%
• Morgan Stanley downgraded Adobe (ADBE) to equal-weight and lowered price Invesco QQQ Trust QQQ 160.78bn 274.69 0.00% -31.61% 0.20%
target from $591 to $362 as a result of expectation of a slowing structural growth Vanguard IT ETF VGT 42.46bn 319.81 0.00% -30.78% 0.10%
-35%
profile. Technology Select SPDR XLK 39.76bn 124.62 0.00% -29.00% 0.12%
Feb 2022 Mar 2022 Apr 2022 May 2022 Jun 2022 Fidelity IT FTEC 5.33bn 94.35 0.00% -30.89% 0.08%
Information Technology S&P 500 SPDR Semiconductor XSD 1.00bn 153.88 0.00% -38.05% 0.35%
8.07 8.15% 30.70 22.60 STOCKS TO WATCH TICKER MARKET CAP CLOSE CHANGE P/E EV/EBITDA
Health Care Market Cap (Trillions) Weekly Change P/E EV/EBITDA
Astrazeneca Plc-Spons Adr AZN
206.40bn 61.09 0.00% 17.13 13.19
Sector Comparison to S&P 500 Performance • Health care equipment provider Baxter International (BAX) was downgraded to Cigna Corp CI 84.72bn 244.52 0.00% 10.58 9.62
5%
equal weight from overweight at Wells Fargo, slashing price target to $71 from $90, Centene Corp CNC 49.40bn 76.32 0.00% 13.52 10.18
noting inflationary pressure from surging oil prices and continued supply chain Baxter International Inc BAX 33.91bn 63.83 0.00% 14.46 11.54
0% challenges may put additional pressure on its 2022 sales and earnings. Davita Inc DVA 7.42bn 89.48 0.00% 7.67 7.92
Ptc Therapeutics Inc PTCT 2.88bn 28.41 0.00%
• Pharmacy retailer Rite Aid Corporation (RAD) soared more than 40% on better-
Siga Technologies Inc SIGA 0.81bn 11.28 0.00% 16.97 10.90
-5% than-expected quarterly results. RAD raised its FY23 revenue forecast to
Amarin Corp Plc -Adr AMRN 0.75bn 1.83 0.00%
$23.6B-$24B, from previous $22.9B citing increased utilization of higher-cost drugs
Rite Aid Corp RAD 0.46bn 6.20 0.00% 14.25
-10% at its pharmacy benefits business.
Mustang Bio Inc MBIO 0.07bn 0.63 0.00%
• Cantor lowered estimates for commercial-stage biotech Amarin Corporation’s
-15%
(AMRN) U.S. Vascepa sales in 2022 and beyond saying generic competition for
ETFs TO WATCH TICKER TOTAL ASSETS CLOSE CHANGE YTD Expense
Vascepa is greater than initially anticipated .
• Rare diseases-oriented PTC Therapeutics (PTCT) jumped ~20% after reporting Health Care Select SPDR XLV 37.99bn 119.89 0.00% -14.02% 0.12%
-20%
data for Duchenne muscular dystrophy drug, potentially confirming EU Approval Vanguard Healthcare VHT 15.99bn 220.21 0.00% -16.81% 0.10%
• Centene (CNC) was upgraded to Outperform at Credit Suisse increasing price iShares Biotechnology IBB 7.92bn 109.56 0.00% -28.10% 0.47%
-25% SPDR S&P Biotech XBI 7.23bn 67.61 0.00% -41.43% 0.35%
Feb 2022 Mar 2022 Apr 2022 May 2022 Jun 2022 target to $88, as believe CNC has an ability to recapture some upside potential
ARK Genomic Revolution ARKG 2.56bn 29.32 0.00% -53.65% 0.75%
Health Care S&P 500 associated with Medicaid redeterminations.Power BI Desktop
Sector Snapshot
9.17 8.25% 22.30 14.40
Consumer Discretionary Market Cap (Trillions) Weekly Change P/E EV/EBITDA
STOCKS TO WATCH TICKER MARKET CAP CLOSE
CHANGE P/E EV/EBITDA
Amazon.Com Inc AMZN 1,165.94bn 106.22 0.00% 32.50 13.13
Sector Comparison to S&P 500 Performance
Tesla Inc TSLA 770.81bn 650.28 0.00% 47.37 27.78
0% • Morgan Stanley has cut its projection pertaining with Q2 deliveries and auto gross
Nike Inc -Cl B NKE 174.50bn 107.34 0.00% 24.81 19.16
margin of Tesla Inc. (TSLA).
Airbnb Inc-Class A ABNB 65.10bn 99.49 0.00% 36.98 19.21
-10% • With the upcoming Amazon Prime event on July 12-13, Jefferies is expecting
General Motors Co GM 51.05bn 31.88 0.00% 5.21 3.10
highly satisfactory results and 6%/4% boost to 3Q22 GMV/Sales growth for
-20% Amazon (AMZN). ETFs TO WATCH TICKER TOTAL ASSETS CLOSE
CHANGE YTD Expense
• Nike (NKE) will be announcing its quarterly results on June 27. Barclays and Consumer Disc. Select SPDR XLY 15.12bn 136.10 0.00% -35.29% 0.12%
-30%
Morgan Stanley are anticipating softer-than-expected revenue in China region. Vanguard Consumer Disc. VCR 4.54bn 225.87 0.00% -35.14% 0.10%
Fidelity Consumer Disc. FDIS 1.08bn 58.36 0.00% -35.34% 0.08%
-40%
Feb 2022 Mar 2022 Apr 2022 May 2022 Jun 2022 SDPR S&P Retail XRT 0.44bn 60.49 0.00% -33.95% 0.35%
Consumer Discretionary S&P 500 First Trust Consumer Disc. FXD 0.42bn 44.63 0.00% -28.19% 0.63%
6.21 7.00% 28.20 17.60
Communication Services Market Cap (Trillions) Weekly Change P/E EV/EBITDA
STOCKS TO WATCH TICKER MARKET CAP CLOSE
CHANGE P/E EV/EBITDA
Comcast Corp-Class A CMCSA 178.54bn 38.71 0.00% 10.05 7.04
Sector Comparison to S&P 500 Performance
0% • Formula one Racing (FWONA) has agreed to renew broadcasting right Walt Disney Co/The DIS 176.19bn 94.34 0.00% 17.64 12.59
agreement with Disney (DIS) owned ESPN through 2025 beating rival bidders Netflix Inc NFLX 83.05bn 175.51 0.00% 15.31 12.06
Amazon inc. (AMZN) and Comcast (CMCSA). Zoom Video Communicatio… ZM 35.91bn 110.00 0.00% 29.81 17.60
-10%
• DoorDash (DASH) announced collaboration with Loblaw Companies which will Doordash Inc - A DASH 28.46bn 61.69 0.00% 813.… 49.23
ETFs TO WATCH TICKER TOTAL ASSETS CLOSE CHANGE YTD Expense
-20%
add a new grocery delivery service to Canadian customers, making items available
in 30 minutes or less. On Tuesday, Goldman Sachs reinstated its neutral rating for Com.Services Select SPDR XLC 9.66bn 53.84 0.00% -31.17% 0.12%
-30%
the company, with target price of $67. Vanguard Com.Services VOX 2.83bn 92.86 0.00% -31.98% 0.10%
• Zoom Video Communications (ZM) shares rose 4% on Tuesday, as company First Trust Indxx ETF NXTG 0.61bn 64.08 0.00% -22.95% 0.70%
Feb 2022 Mar 2022 Apr 2022 May 2022 Jun 2022
reported it has resolved widespread service outage. Recently, Morgan Stanley has Fidelity Com.Services FCOM 0.57bn 35.14 0.00% -32.11% 0.08%
Communication Services S&P 500 mentioned Zoom among stocks with potential upward revisions into 2023. Ishares Global Com.Services IXP 0.31bn 60.48 0.00% -26.96% 0.46%
9.26 5.14% 14.40 15.00
Financials Market Cap (Trillions) Weekly Change P/E EV/EBITDA
STOCKS TO WATCH TICKER MARKET CAP CLOSE
CHANGE P/E EV/EBITDA
Jpmorgan Chase & Co JPM 343.84bn 113.03 0.00% 9.10
Sector Comparison to S&P 500 Performance
• JP Morgan (JPM) is one of the first major U.S. companies among those who Bank Of America Corp BAC 260.00bn 31.92 0.00% 8.20
promised to their employees to finance abortion leave in other state if needed. Morgan Stanley MS 136.23bn 72.90 0.00% 9.23
0%
• Goldman Sachs (GS) reportedly plans to purchase huge chunk approximately $2 Goldman Sachs Group Inc GS 108.01bn 279.79 0.00% 7.33 4.92
Billion of distressed assets from crypto lender on the verge of default - Celsius Citigroup Inc C 93.32bn 46.52 0.00% 6.68 10.44
ETFs TO WATCH TICKER TOTAL ASSETS CLOSE CHANGE YTD Expense
-10% Network.
• Bank of America (BAC) has taken a stake in i Capital, an alternative investment Financial Select SPDR XLF 30.23bn 30.93 0.00% -21.76% 0.12%
-20% platform for assets and WM industries - according to release from businesswire. Vanguard Financials VFH 8.80bn 75.85 0.00% -22.34% 0.10%
SPDR S&P Bank KBE 2.17bn 43.41 0.00% -21.98% 0.35%
Feb 2022 Mar 2022 Apr 2022 May 2022 Jun 2022 iShares Global Financials IXG 0.80bn 64.68 0.00% -20.03% 0.46%
Financials S&P 500 SPDR S&P Insurance KIE 0.54bn 36.18 0.00% -10.27% 0.35%Power BI Desktop
Sector Snapshot
5.95 4.22% 20.60 12.80
Industrials Market Cap (Trillions) Weekly Change P/E EV/EBITDA
STOCKS TO WATCH TICKER MARKET CAP CLOSE
CHANGE P/E EV/EBITDA
Boeing Co/The BA 81.98bn 136.80 0.00% 23.04 13.61
Sector Comparison to S&P 500 Performance
Southwest Airlines Co LUV 22.10bn 35.63 0.00% 9.30 3.81
• The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) released monthly business jet flight
Generac Holdings Inc GNRC 14.61bn 220.25 0.00% 16.10 11.54
0% report for May. Industry business jet flights in May 2022 were 12% higher
United Airlines Holdings Inc UAL 12.31bn 36.28 0.00% 5.12 4.62
compared to May 2021. Although flights were only 4.7% lower than the record high
Spirit Airlines Inc SAVE 2.48bn 21.28 0.00% 12.29 9.81
set in October 2021, the growth rate was the slowest over the past 12 mos.
-10%
• Raymond James upgraded Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) from Outperform to ETFs TO WATCH TICKER TOTAL ASSETS CLOSE
CHANGE YTD Expense
Strong Buy, lowering price target to $55 noting U.S. airlines are not seeing any The Industrial Select SPDR XLI 13.13bn 85.56 0.00% -18.47% 0.12%
-20%
softening of strong demand. Vanguard Industrials VIS 3.38bn 159.81 0.00% -20.77% 0.10%
• Spirit Airlines (SAVE) gained as JetBlue Airways Corp. (JBLU) increased its takeover U.S. Global Jets JETS 2.58bn 16.59 0.00% -23.79% 0.60%
Feb 2022 Mar 2022 Apr 2022 May 2022 Jun 2022 offer by $2 per share to $33.50 on attempts to ward off ULCC proposal. New ishares Transportation IYT 0.82bn 208.08 0.00% -24.54% 0.42%
Industrials S&P 500 takeover bid represents a 68% premium to Frontier’s cash-and-stock. Fidelity Industrials FIDU 0.67bn 44.06 0.00% -21.15% 0.08%
4.42 6.57% 23.40 16.50
Consumer Staples Market Cap (Trillions) Weekly Change P/E EV/EBITDA
STOCKS TO WATCH TICKER MARKET CAP CLOSE
CHANGE P/E EV/EBITDA
Procter & Gamble Co/The PG 344.16bn 132.36 0.00% 23.17 16.82
Sector Comparison to S&P 500 Performance
• Kellogg (K) has announced its plan to split the entity into three distinct public Philip Morris International PM 159.97bn 97.95 0.00% 17.07 13.20
companies, each focusing on snacking, cereal and plant-based businesses Mondelez International Inc-A MDLZ 86.44bn 58.80 0.00% 19.58 16.51
0%
Altria Group Inc MO 78.79bn 45.31 0.00% 8.45 7.95
separately.
Kellogg Co K 23.82bn 67.54 0.00% 16.40 13.50
• Mondelez International (MDLZ) to acquire Clif Bar & Co, organic energy bar
-10% ETFs TO WATCH TICKER TOTAL ASSETS CLOSE CHANGE YTD Expense
maker, in a $2.9B deal.
• Bank of America has cut the price target for Altria (MO), following the pressure Consumer Staples SPDR XLP 15.56bn 68.83 0.00% -10.73% 0.12%
-20% from FDA over JUUL products. Vanguard Consumer Stap. VDC 6.39bn 177.06 0.00% -11.44% 0.10%
Ishares Consumer Stap. KXI 1.09bn 55.23 0.00% -14.86% 0.46%
Feb 2022 Mar 2022 Apr 2022 May 2022 Jun 2022 Fidelity Consumer Stap. FSTA 1.04bn 41.08 0.00% -12.03% 0.08%
Consumer Staples S&P 500 First Trust Consumer Stap. FXG 0.69bn 59.31 0.00% -4.54% 0.63%
1.82 7.71% 47.20 20.80
Real Estate Market Cap (Trillions) Weekly Change P/E EV/EBITDA
STOCKS TO WATCH TICKER MARKET CAP CLOSE
CHANGE P/E EV/EBITDA
Prologis Inc PLD 89.52bn 110.36 0.00% 31.01 21.16
Sector Comparison to S&P 500 Performance • Brixmor Property Group (BRX) has been upgraded at JPMorgan to Overweight Annaly Capital Management… NLY 10.00bn 5.71 0.00% 6.78
0%
from Neutral reflective of both their more positive view of the strip center group as Brixmor Property Group Inc BRX 6.27bn 19.73 0.00% 23.19 13.92
a whole and how they view Brixmor’s positioning within the group. Natl Health Investors Inc NHI 2.85bn 60.76 0.00% 20.35 15.39
-10%
• As a result of exceptional performance YTD National Health Investors (NHI) Ltc Properties Inc LTC 1.54bn 37.18 0.00% 18.79 15.41
downgraded to Market Perform at BMO Capital. ETFs TO WATCH TICKER TOTAL ASSETS CLOSE
CHANGE YTD Expense
• BMO Capital upgraded LTC Properties (LTC) to Market Perform saying with Vanguard Real Estate VNQ 39.28bn 87.70 0.00% -23.81% 0.12%
-20% downside risk significantly reduced, an Underperform is no longer warranted Schwab US REIT SCHH 6.07bn 20.30 0.00% -22.40% 0.07%
Real Estate Select SPDR XLRE 5.33bn 39.08 0.00% -23.87% 0.12%
Feb 2022 Mar 2022 Apr 2022 May 2022 Jun 2022 iShares U.S. Real Estate IYR 4.60bn 87.66 0.00% -23.95% 0.42%
Real Estate S&P 500 iShares REIT ETF REZ 0.92bn 76.43 0.00% -21.40% 0.48%Power BI Desktop
Sector Snapshot
3.04 -1.55% 15.20 8.40
Energy Market Cap (Trillions) Weekly Change P/E EV/EBITDA
STOCKS TO WATCH TICKER MARKET CAP CLOSE
CHANGE P/E EV/EBITDA
Exxon Mobil Corp XOM 378.12bn 86.12 0.00% 10.07 5.54
Sector Comparison to S&P 500 Performance
Occidental Petroleum Corp OXY 55.77bn 55.68 0.00% 7.41 4.70
• Souwthwestern Energy Company (SWN), which primarily focuses on natural gas
Diamondback Energy Inc FANG 22.22bn 122.29 0.00% 5.38 4.17
and crude oil exploration, announced one million share repurchase program. Share
Chesapeake Energy Corp CHK 10.85bn 80.28 0.00% 5.32 2.80
50% price of the company increased by 4.32% last week.
Southwestern Energy Co SWN 7.97bn 6.72 0.00% 3.62 3.19
• Chesapeake Energy Corporation (CHK), which produces oil and natural gas,
increased its share and warrant repurchase program from $1 billion to 2$ billion. ETFs TO WATCH TICKER TOTAL ASSETS CLOSE
CHANGE YTD Expense
0% • Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY), which develops, produces and markets Energy Select SPDR XLE 35.11bn 73.49 0.00% 28.43% 0.12%
crude oil and natural gas, increased by 3.3% for the week as Berkshire Hathaway Vanguard Energy VDE 7.48bn 102.35 0.00% 27.78% 0.10%
disclosed another buying of 9.6 million shares. SPDR Oil & Gas Exploration XOP 4.35bn 129.51 0.00% 28.97% 0.35%
Feb 2022 Mar 2022 Apr 2022 May 2022 Jun 2022 iShares U.S. Energy IYE 2.71bn 38.66 0.00% 24.71% 0.42%
Energy S&P 500 iShares Global Energy IXC 2.12bn 33.90 0.00% 20.00% 0.46%
2.63 2.68% 17.30 9.40
Materials Market Cap (Trillions) Weekly Change P/E EV/EBITDA
STOCKS TO WATCH
TICKER MARKET CAP CLOSE CHANGE P/E EV/EBITDA
Alcoa Corp AA 9.24bn 49.28 0.00% 4.94 2.91
Sector Comparison to S&P 500 Performance
• Credit Suisse downgraded Dow Inc. (DOW), which produces and distributes Dow Inc DOW 38.25bn 54.77 0.00% 7.09 4.95
0%
chemical products, from neutral to underperform and decreased price target from International Paper Co IP 16.02bn 42.35 0.00% 8.98 6.11
$67 to $49. Scotts Miracle-Gro Co SMG 4.56bn 76.69 0.00% 12.90 12.65
• Wells Fargo downgraded The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG), which markets Sonoco Products Co SON 5.61bn 52.14 0.00% 10.96 8.64
-10% ETFs TO WATCH TICKER TOTAL ASSETS CLOSE CHANGE YTD Expense
branded consumer lawn and garden products, from overweight to equalweight and
cut target price from $115 to $85. VanEck Vectors Gold Miners GDX 11.69bn 30.39 0.00% -2.75% 0.52%
-20% • Sonoco Products Company (SON), which manufactures industrial and consumer Materials Select Sector XLB 6.97bn 74.92 0.00% -16.22% 0.12%
packaging solutions, increased the guidance for EPS for Q2, from $1.20-$1.30 to Vanguard Materials VAW 3.21bn 162.80 0.00% -16.40% 0.10%
Feb 2022 Mar 2022 Apr 2022 May 2022 Jun 2022
$1.60-$1.70. SPDR S&P Metals & Mining XME 2.24bn 46.54 0.00% 2.20% 0.35%
Materials S&P 500 Global X Silver Miners SIL 0.85bn 28.59 0.00% -20.67% 0.65%
1.69 7.24% 23.20 13.00
Utilities Market Cap (Trillions) Weekly Change P/E EV/EBITDA
STOCKS TO WATCH TICKER MARKET CAP CLOSE
CHANGE P/E EV/EBITDA
Constellation Energy CEG 19.45bn 58.10 0.00% 14.23 7.88
Sector Comparison to S&P 500 Performance • Goldman Sachs reduced price target from $40 to $36 for Sunrun Corporation Sunrun Inc RUN 5.38bn 23.83 0.00%
10%
(RUN), which provides solar energy solutions. Price of RUN has decreased 75% Sunpower Corp SPWR 3.17bn 17.93 0.00% 29.69 19.80
since January, 2021. Shoals Technologies Group -A SHLS 3.01bn 19.57 0.00% 27.84 22.28
0%
• Goldman Sachs downgraded Sunnova Energy International (NOVA), which Sunnova Energy International NOVA 2.40bn 19.76 0.00% 32.22
provides renewable energy solutions, from Buy to Neutral and decreased price ETFs TO WATCH TICKER TOTAL ASSETS CLOSE CHANGE YTD Expense
-10%
target from $31 to $24. Utilities Select Sector XLU 15.40bn 64.87 0.00% -8.47% 0.12%
• Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG), which reduces carbon-free energy and Vanguard Utilities VPU 5.53bn 141.44 0.00% -8.75% 0.10%
-20%
sustainable solutions, increased by 2% after Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo Global X US Infrastructure Dev PAVE 3.73bn 22.53 0.00% -20.95% 0.47%
Feb 2022 Mar 2022 Apr 2022 May 2022 Jun 2022 upgraded company to overweight. iShares Global Infrastructure IGF 3.44bn 45.28 0.00% -5.33% 0.46%
S&P 500 UtilitiesPower BI Desktop
Week Ahead
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
Today June 2022 Month Week Day List Today June 2022 Month Week Day List Economic
Today June 2022
Calendar
Month Week Day List Today June 2022 Month Week Day List Today July 2022 Month Week Day List
June 27, 2022 Monday June 28, 2022 Tuesday June 29, 2022 Wednesday June 30, 2022 Thursday July 1, 2022 Friday
12:30pm - 1:30pm HK:Merchandise Trade 12:30am - 1:30am US:Case-Shiller Home Price Index 9:30am - 10:30am EZ:M3 Money Supply 12:30am - 1:30am UK:GDP 12:30am - 1:30am FR:PMI Manufacturing Final
1:30pm - 2:30pm US:Durable Goods Orders 1:30am - 2:30am US:FHFA House Price Index 10:30am - 11:30am EZ:EC Economic Sentiment 1:30am - 2:30am CH:Retail Sales 1:30am - 2:30am DE:PMI Manufacturing Final
2:30pm - 3:30pm US:Pending Home Sales Index 2:30am - 3:30am US:Consumer Confidence 11:30am - 12:30pm US:MBA Mortgage Applications 2:30am - 3:30am FR:Consumer Mfgd Goods Consumption 2:30am - 3:30am EZ:PMI Manufacturing Final
3:30pm - 4:30pm US:Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey 3:30am - 4:30am US:Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 12:30pm - 1:30pm DE:CPI 3:30am - 4:30am FR:CPI 3:30am - 4:30am UK:M4 Money Supply
4:30pm - 5:30pm US:6-Month Bill Auction 4:30am - 5:30am US:4-Week Bill Announcement 1:30pm - 2:30pm US:GDP 4:30am - 5:30am FR:PPI 4:30am - 5:30am UK:PMI Manufacturing Final
5:30pm - 6:30pm US:2-Yr Note Auction 5:30am - 6:30am US:8-Week Bill Announcement 2:30pm - 3:30pm US:Corporate Profits 5:30am - 6:30am CH:KOF Swiss Leading Indicator 5:30am - 6:30am EZ:HICP Flash
6:30pm - 7:30pm US:3-Month Bill Auction 6:30am - 7:30am US:7-Yr Note Auction 3:30pm - 4:30pm US:Jerome Powell Speaks 6:30am - 7:30am DE:Unemployment Rate 6:30am - 7:30am IT:CPI
7:30pm - 8:30pm US:5-Yr Note Auction 7:30am - 8:30am US:Money Supply 4:30pm - 5:30pm US:State Street Investor Confidence Index 7:30am - 8:30am EZ:Unemployment Rate 7:30am - 8:30am US:PMI Manufacturing Final
8:30am - 9:30am JP:Retail Sales 5:30pm - 6:30pm US:EIA Petroleum Status Report 8:30am - 9:30am IT:PPI 8:30am - 9:30am US:ISM Manufacturing Index
8:30pm - 9:30pm DE:GfK Consumer Climate 6:30pm - 7:30pm US:Survey of Business Uncertainty 9:30am - 10:30am US:Jobless Claims 9:30am - 10:30am US:Construction Spending
9:30pm - 10:30pm US:International Trade in Goods (Advance) 7:30pm - 8:30pm KR:Industrial Production 10:30am - 11:30am US:Personal Income and Outlays 10:30am - 11:30am ALL:Global Manufacturing PMI
10:30pm - 11:30pm US:Retail Inventories (Advance) 8:30pm - 9:30pm KR:Retail Sales 11:30am - 12:30pm CA:Monthly GDP 11:30am - 12:30pm US:Baker Hughes Rig Count
9:30pm - 10:30pm JP:Industrial Production 12:30pm - 1:30pm US:Chicago PMI 10:30pm - 11:30pm IN:PMI Manufacturing
10:30pm - 11:30pm CN:CFLP Manufacturing PMI 1:30pm - 2:30pm US:EIA Natural Gas Report
Corporate Actions Calendar
Ticker Type Time Maket Cap Ticker Type Time Maket Cap Ticker Type Time Maket Cap Ticker Type Time Maket Cap Ticker Type Time Maket Cap
NKE Earnings After Hours 169.97bn PAYX Earnings Pre Market 42.35bn BSBR Earnings Not Supplied 42.15bn MU Earnings After Hours 62.78bn TTNP Earnings Not Supplied 0.01bn
TCOM Earnings After Hours 14.59bn GRFS Earnings Not Supplied 8.07bn GIS Earnings Pre Market 41.54bn STZ.B Earnings Pre Market 47.11bn
SNX Earnings Pre Market 8.98bn ROIV Earnings Pre Market 3.23bn STLA Earnings Not Supplied 40.38bn STZ Earnings Pre Market 44.10bn
CNXC Earnings After Hours 7.38bn FRHC Earnings Not Supplied 2.38bn WDS Earnings Not Supplied 39.78bn WBA Earnings Pre Market 35.32bn
JEF Earnings After Hours 6.44bn PRGS Earnings After Hours 2.10bn CCEP Earnings Not Supplied 23.29bn SBSW Earnings Not Supplied 7.29bn
AU Earnings Not Supplied 6.33bn AVAV Earnings After Hours 2.05bn MKC Earnings Pre Market 22.92bn AYI Earnings Pre Market 5.06bn
FCUV Earnings Not Supplied 0.60bn EPAC Earnings Pre Market 1.16bn MKC.V Earnings Pre Market 22.79bn SMPL Earnings Pre Market 3.86bn
MULN Earnings Not Supplied 0.49bn AZRE Earnings Not Supplied 0.89bn EBR.B Earnings Not Supplied 18.72bn GET Earnings Not Supplied 1.57bn
IDEX Earnings Not Supplied 0.43bn CGNT Earnings Pre Market 0.46bn EBR Earnings Not Supplied 18.67bn NAAS Earnings Not Supplied 1.36bn
CO Earnings Not Supplied 0.42bn XAIR Earnings After Hours 0.21bn SJR Earnings Not Supplied 14.50bn LNN Earnings Pre Market 1.31bn
LEGH Earnings Not Supplied 0.34bn MYMD Earnings Not Supplied 0.09bn FIZZ Earnings Not Supplied 4.35bn VEON Earnings Not Supplied 0.82bn
HFFG Earnings Not Supplied 0.29bn TRIB Earnings Not Supplied 0.05bn MSM Earnings Pre Market 4.10bn NEXT Earnings Not Supplied 0.61bn
DLNG Earnings After Hours 0.12bn GSMG Earnings Not Supplied 0.05bn UNF Earnings Pre Market 2.97bn MTL Earnings Not Supplied 0.55bn
VERY Earnings Not Supplied 0.10bn QTT Earnings Not Supplied 0.03bn ACCD Earnings After Hours 0.52bnPower BI Desktop Legal Notice · This publication (the “Publication”) has been prepared and distributed by TBC Capital LLC (“TBC Capital”) member of TBC Bank Group PLC (“Group”) for informational purposes only and independently of the respective companies mentioned herein. · TBC Capital is operating and performing its professional services on the territory of Georgia and is duly authorized to prepare and distribute this Publication on the territory of Georgia. · Nothing in this Publication shall constitute an offer or invitation to treat to solicit buying or selling or subscribing any assets and/or securities and nothing herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever or shall be considered as a recommendation to take any such actions. · Since distribution of this Publication may be restricted by law in certain jurisdictions, persons into whose possession this Publication comes are required by TBC Capital to inform themselves about and to observe any and all restrictions applicable to them. · As this Publication is not directed to or intended for distribution, directly or indirectly, to or use by any person or entity in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to the applicable law or which would require any registration or licensing within such jurisdiction, neither TBC Capital nor any member of the Group nor any of their respective director(s), partner(s), employee(s), affiliates, adviser(s) or agent(s) (“Representatives”) accept any direct or indirect liability to any person in relation to the publication, distribution or possession of this Publication in or from any jurisdiction. · This Publication is not intended to provide any investment, business, tax and/or legal advice, and credit or any other evaluation. 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Power BI Desktop Sources Source Name Web Address Bloomberg, Bloomberg Terminal https://www.bloomberg.com/ CNBC https://www.cnbc.com/world/?region=world Fidelity https://www.fidelity.com/ Real Investment Advisors https://realinvestmentadvice.com/ Reuters https://www.reuters.com/ Seeking Alpha https://seekingalpha.com/ Zero Hedge https://www.zerohedge.com/
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