WHAT'S COOKING & WHAT'S BREWING - Peter Martin
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POWERED BY WHAT’S COOKING & WHAT’S BREWING Peter Martin
POWERED BY
What’s cooking & What’s brewing
DETERMINING SURVIVAL AND SUCCESS IN THE SECTOR:
FIVE AREAS SHAPING THE SPEED OF THE RECOVERY
• Government support and restrictions
• Financial strength of individual businesses
• Creativity and resolve of management and their teams
• Willingness of customers to return
• Wider economic and business climate
POWERED BY
STA VIRTUAL CONFERENCE 2021: LOOKING FORWARD
THE NEW FRONTIER
POWERED BY Five big behavioural shifts changing the market 1 . D E L I V E RY U P TA K E
POWERED BY
50%
of the GB population have had
pick up takeaway or delivery
from a mainstream branded
operator since lockdown
started (March 23rd)
(43% for Scottish consumers)
BrandTrack Oct 2020
POWERED BY
69%
Of consumers currently ordering
delivery more frequently plan to
continue to order delivery when the
on-premise reopens
(72% Scottish consumer)
CGA BrandTrack, Dec 2020 [6]
POWERED BY
24%
of GB have ordered "Cook it
7%
of GB have not ordered
yourself" ingredient boxes ingredient boxes "Cook it
from their favourite restaurant yourself" but are planning to
during COVID-19 pandemic do so
(19% Scottish consumer) (7% Scottish consumer)
BrandTrack Dec 2020POWERED BY
Sectors in which business leaders are expecting new entrants in 2021
Delivery-only 58%
Pub restaurants 51%
Street food & drink / 3rd space 51%
Pubs 48%
Casual dining 40%
Bars 38%
Fast casual 32%
Market halls 29%
Social gaming (e.g. crazy golf / darts) 29%
Coffee shop / QSR 28%
Hotels 25%
High end restaurants 24%
Holiday park 19%
Late night 5%POWERED BY
35%
Of 18-34 year olds who live in
the city centre have ordered
alcohol deliveryPOWERED BY
11%
Of GB consumers have
22%
Of GB consumers would
had pre-made cocktails consider to have pre-made
delivered to them cocktails delivered to them
(7% Scottish consumer) (24% Scottish consumer)
BrandTrack Feb 2021POWERED BY
85%
Of GB consumers like to regularly try new or
different drinks in the out of home market
CGA BrandTrack, July 2020 [15]POWERED BY Five big behavioural shifts changing the market 2 . D I G I TA L A D O P T I O N
POWERED BY
The operators’ view: How pivotal will the use of technology be
in helping you operate once lockdown eases?
5%
24% 33%
Fundamental
Important
Fairly important
Not at all important
39%POWERED BY
What are your biggest frustrations with technology and data and its use in your business?
2020
2021
62%
57%
52%
48%
38%
32% 32%
25% 23% 27%
24%
20% 20% 19% 20%
12%
Difficulties in Overload of The speed of Impact on the Levels of Too many Understanding Inaccurate data
technology data implementation consumer training options the data
integration of new journey required
technologiesPOWERED BY 61% Of consumers planned more thoroughly where they are visiting before going out
POWERED BY
How will an increased desire to pre-book/pre-
order impact your business over the next twelve
months?
33%
9%
Positive
28%
No Impact
Of Business Leaders will take
62% Negative
this into account in their
strategy for this yearPOWERED BY
CGA BUSINESS LEADERS’ SURVEY 2021
Leaders feel that tech is best suited to support with operational challenges, with
managing the cost of labour, loyalty and team engagement the top priorities
Which of these topics/challenges are the highest priority that you will be deploying
technological solutions to overcome?
49%
46%
40%
34%
23%
15%
13%
8%
Managing the Driving loyalty Driving team Gathering Introducing Dealing with Managing the Improving
cost of labour engagement guest insight contactless allergens cost of sustainability
payment productsPOWERED BY Five big behavioural shifts changing the market 3 . S H I F T T O Q U A L I T Y, P ROV E N A N C E A N D H E A LT H
POWERED BY
70%
Of GB consumers agree that they proactively
try to lead a healthy lifestyle
(68% Scottish consumer)
CGA BrandTrack, Feb 2021 [23]POWERED BY
CGA BUSINESS LEADERS’ SURVEY 2021
Business Leader perception of elements in offer that will increase in importance:
Which of the following will you prioritise on re-opening?
60%
37%
29% 29% 27% 26%
21% 21%
Traditional High quality Healthy options Local produce Items from Easy to prepare British produce High margin
customer items trusted items items
favourites suppliersPOWERED BY
The consumer view:
Compared to before lockdown, how will the following change in importance for eating out?
How ethically produced ingredients are The sourcing of ingredients
More important 28% More important 44%
As important 56% As important 48%
Less important 16% Less important 8%POWERED BY
CGA BUSINESS LEADERS’ SURVEY 2021
Leaders expect elements centred around quality to increase in importance for
consumers, while value elements have dropped in prioritisation
Which of the following do you predict as key drivers for consumers when they choose where
to eat and drink out, when permitted to do so in 2021? Vs. 2020
2020 2021
82%
74% 73%
69%
62% 62% 63%
57%
50% 48%
47%
44%
Quality of experience Service Food quality Value for experience Value for money Design/ambiencePOWERED BY
POWERED BY
The spirits market in the on-premise had seen a shift towards
lower abv serves prior to Covid-19
Lower than Greater than
25% ABV 25% ABV
+12.0% +6.5%
YoY Value Change CGA No/Low Alcohol Report 2019 [28]POWERED BY
Hard Seltzers – the next drinks trend to go mainstream?
13.9 m 24.4m
GB consumers are ’very’ or GB consumers find no or low
‘quite’ likely to try hard seltzers alcohol alternatives appealing
if they were available in pubs,
bars or restaurants Equating to 50% of the adult
population
Sample size: Very likely to try Hard Seltzers: 317; Quite likely to try: 1071 CGA BrandTrack, Feb 2020 [29]www.cga.co.uk [30]
POWERED BY
17%
30%
Of GB consumers state that it is
Trustworthy
12%
now more important to them that Local
the drinks they choose are
trustworthy, local or British
11%
BritishPOWERED BY
Local brands had started to gain share in their heartland regions as
consumers look to trusted and local brands
Brand Value Share Growth by Region
July YTD TY vs. YA
Thatchers Beavertown
Tennent’s Lager Carling Caledonia Best
Somerset Haze Neck Oil
In Scotland In South West In Central In London In Scotland
+1.7pp +1.6pp +0.5pp +0.5pp +0.3pp
CGA On Premise Measurement to P13 2020POWERED BY
21%
of GB state that compared to
before COVID-19, it's more
important to then now that
their food is Local
(30% Scottish consumer)
BrandTrack Oct 2020POWERED BY Five big behavioural shifts changing the market 4 . S TAY I N G L O C A L – T H E CHALLENGED HIGH STREET
POWERED BY
CGA BUSINESS LEADERS’ SURVEY 2021
73% And
Of Business Leaders predict that
consumers ‘desire to stay/support
local’ will positively impact their
business in 2021
54%
Are planning to integrate this into
their planning and strategy for the
yearPOWERED BY
88%
Of consumers commuted to
Of which…
62%
will work from home more when
lockdown ends
work before COVID-19POWERED BY
Share of market sales by outlet location
Reopening to date 2019 Reopening to date 2020
48%
42%
36%
33%
22%
19%
City Large Town Small Town/AreaPOWERED BY Five big behavioural shifts changing the market 5. POLITICAL CREEP AC RO S S T H E S E C T O R
POWERED BY
87%
of business leaders agree that the
risk-assessed COVID-secure
guidelines they were following in
July 2020 were effective in
ensuring overall safety of
customers86%
Of consumers were satisfied with the
COVID-19 safety measures in the
venues they visited
With 62% very satisfiedPOWERED BY
55%
Of English on premise
users feel safer in
hospitality than shops or
supermarketsPOWERED BY
CGA BUSINESS LEADERS’ SURVEY 2021
By mid-November 7 in 10 GB adults had revisited the sector, with confidence built
through positive and safe hospitality experiences
Proportion of consumers in GB who had been out by the following dates since the 4th of July:
68% 70% 65%
65%
81%
55% 55%
53%
45%
48%
35% 45%
35%
12%
Of consumers stated that
their overall experience
5th July 15th July 29th July 12th 3rd 23rd 9th made them feel reassured
12%2
(first (first 10 (first 25 August September September November enough to visit again
days)* days)* days) (first 39 (first 61 (first 81 (first 108
days) days) days) days)POWERED BY
How confident would you feel visiting pubs, bars and restaurants
when pubs, bars and restaurants can open normally (not just
takeaway)
59%
Of GB consumers agree
27%
47%
Confident
Unsure
Not confident
they ‘can’t wait to go out
again’ to hospitality 26%
venuesCONSUMER COUNTDOWN TO REOPENING SERIES
Almost half of Scottish consumers plan to visit venues within first few weeks from
26th of April
The Government have provided the provisional date of Monday the 26th of April for pubs, bars, restaurants and other similar venues to reopen.
Proportion of consumers in Scotland who plan to return to the market following this date:
79%
65%
51% 20%
won’t visit within the
first 3 months of
30%
24% venues reopening
8%
The day venues The first week The week after Within a couple of Within a month Within a couple of
reopen venues reopen venues reopen weeks after after venues months after
venues reopen reopen venues reopen
Sample size: Scotland: 446Soho, London www.cga.co.uk [45]
• www.cga.co.uk [46]
POWERED BY
Influence of health and
anti-alcohol lobby only
growingPOWERED BY
STA VIRTUAL CONFERENCE 2021: LOOKING FORWARD
THE NEW FRONTIER
1 . D E L I V E RY U P TA K E
2 . D I G I TA L A D O P T I O N
3. SHIFT TO QUALITY & PROVENANCE
4 . S T AY I N G L O C A L
5. POLITICAL CREEPPOWERED BY
Five big behavioural shifts changing the market
What’s the reaction?
• Government support and restrictions
• Financial strength of individual businesses
• Creativity and resolve of management and their teams
• Willingness of customers to return
• Wider economic and business climateEngland v Scotland v Wales: Sites closing and opening, December 2019 to January 2021
Scotland Pubs
England Wales
2.9 closures 2.8 closures 4.6 closures
per opening per opening per opening
938 10,192 725
Sites closing Sites closing Sites closing
Out of Total 9,994 Out of Total 91,652 Out of Total 6,348
CGA Market Recovery MonitorPOWERED BY
CGA BUSINESS LEADERS’ SURVEY 2021
Business leader confidence across the market and in own business
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Feb Feb Feb Jul- Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb Apr- Jun Sep Oct- Nov Feb
-14 -15 -16 16 -16 -17 -17 -17 -17 -18 -18 -18 -18 -19 -19 -19 -19 -20 20 -20 -20 20 -20 -21
General market 86% 93% 74% 15% 36% 47% 43% 34% 30% 34% 47% 36% 39% 39% 41% 30% 44% 60% 5% 16% 9% 2% 18% 49%
Own business 90% 91% 83% 24% 61% 68% 66% 66% 52% 64% 75% 67% 63% 68% 65% 58% 64% 83% 15% 32% 37% 8% 35% 54%POWERED BY
CGA BUSINESS LEADERS’ SURVEY 2021
51%
Of business leaders are
expecting new entrants
at a higher level or to
similar levels as was
seen in 2019
CGA Business Leaders Q1 2021 [52]POWERED BY
CGA BUSINESS LEADERS’ SURVEY 2021
Along with fewer operators planning closures, there is also a greater proportion of
leaders planning openings in 2021, as the market is expected to churn
% of Business Leaders planning to open new sites in
Will there be any sites you keep permanently
the next 12 months?
closed?
Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021
Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021
58% 55%
45%
44% 41%
37% 38%36%
32% 31% 31%
26% 21%19%
14%
No Yes We are yet to
decide thisWinter Island @ Escape To Freight Island, Manchester
Zumhof Biergarten, Birmingham
www.cga.co.uk [55]Tiers, fears & the road to recovery, Phil Tate, CGA
Cargo– Bristol HarboursideShelter Hall, Brighton www.cga.co.uk [57]
Craft Dining Pods, Birmingham www.cga.co.uk [58]
Skylight, London www.cga.co.uk [59]
Victoria Street, Edinburgh www.cga.co.uk [60]
George Street, Edinburgh www.cga.co.uk [61]
Liverpool Without Walls
Liverpool Without Walls, Liverpool BID Company and Liverpool City Council’s
project to enhance outdoor areas for bars and restaurants in the city’s centre to
create a “Winter-proof café culture”. Businesses on the pedestrianised areas of
Bold Street and Castle Street will be able to add semi-permanent structures and
electric heaters to their outdoor seating areas.
The pilot project was launched in July as hospitality venues began to reopen post
lockdown. Allowing bars and restaurants to extend their space into the pavement
and onto closed roads on Bold Street and Castle Street enabled them to extend
their covers while social distancing and mixing regulations remain in place.
A business survey is now taking place to identify any changes and support needed
during the winter months.Lookout Rooftop's Winter Pop-Up Bar, Boston
El Catrin, Toronto
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