Winter Market Report - David Plaister Ltd
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
Winter
Market
Report
A review of the key trends in the national & local housing market
within the West of England and South Wales
Analysis by Dataloft | Winter 2021/22
An Introduction to
David Plaister Ltd
Who are we?
A family owned, independent, local Estate Agent based in North Somerset. The David
Plaister Ltd team has evolved over many years, through successfully selling and letting a
variety of properties. We offer an honest and approachable service with a friendly team
willing to go above and beyond for any client or individual that interacts with our
company. We strive to deliver the perfect combination of modern methods mixed with
traditional values and work tirelessly to fulfil clients’ instructions and exceed expectations.
Meet the team
David Plaister Katrina Plaister Ed Plaister Chloé Plaister
Managing Director Director Director Sales & Auctions Manager
Louise Burt Lucy Amesbury Freya Dix Olivia Roche
Lettings Manager Lettings Administrator Sales Administrator Property Negotiator
Jane Potter Gemma Powell Selina Bird Morgan Bridgewater
Lettings Administrator Sales Negotiator Marketing Executive Auctions & Sales
Administrator
Our departments
ere at David Plaister Ltd we offer an ever expanding array of services, from
H
selling homes, helping people understand how much their property is worth
to lettings, property management and hosting our bi-monthly auctions. Our
departments are as follows:
Residential Sales Property Commercial
& Lettings Auctions Sales & Lettings
New Homes Business Farms and
Transfer Agricultural Land
AABUSY
BUSYYEAR
YEAR
SALES
↑11.8% ↑68.4% ↓22.2% ↑154.7% ↑46.3%
House Property Mortgage New private Gross mortgage
prices sales approvals homes built lending
£241,541 September 2020 vs 95,590 Sept 2020 vs 93,409 Sept 2020 vs (completed) £21.0bn* Sept 2020 vs
£269,945 September 2021 160,950 Sept 2021 72,645 Sept 2021 14,180 Q2 2020 vs £30.7bn* Sept 2021
36,110 Q2 20211
Source: Dataloft, Bank of England, HMRC, ONS, DLUHC, HomeLet
*Figures rounded to nearest £0.1bn
1
Please note that estate agents were closed during the first lockdown in spring 2020. This will impact year-on-year comparisons
With sales volumes in 2021 on the cusp of eclipsing 2007, it’s been
a busy year for home buyers and home movers in the UK.
Wrapping up Full house Budget boost
While many expected a quieter autumn Property prices continue to rise, The Chancellor’s Autumn Budget set
in the housing market, official data Rightmove reporting a ‘full house’ for a positive tone for the economy. The
reveals just a subtle change in autumn the first time since 2007, as asking economy is expected to bounce back to
hues as winter approaches. September prices for properties across all regions its pre-pandemic level by the turn of the
was the third busiest month on record and sectors of the market hit record year. Job vacancies are at a record high
for housing sales, following June 2021 highs in October. A moderation is and unemployment is predicted to peak
and March 2016 (HMRC). As the final likely throughout the final quarter, at just 5.2%, significantly lower than the
winds of the stamp duty holiday ended, with price growth of 5.8% expected 11.9% originally forecast. To turn Generation
sales are set to exceed 1.5 million by the for 20212. An interest rate rise is likely Rent into Generation Buy, the government
end of the year (Zoopla). Although over the coming weeks, and while confirmed a nearly £24 billion multi-year
mortgage approvals in September were this may act as a soft brake on the settlement for housing. Consumer
at their lowest since July 2020 (Bank of market, there is little evidence it will confidence is back at pre-pandemic
England), demand for property remains trigger any significant price falls. levels, although it has taken a knock in
stronger than a year ago and the Price growth of 3.2% is predicted over recent weeks, household budgets
demand/supply imbalance that has the course of 2022 by the Office for squeezed thanks to food and fuel price
epitomized the market in 2021 remains. Budget Responsibility. rises. Inflation is currently 4.2% (ONS).
2
average of independent forecasts
2 | WEST OF ENGLAND AND SOUTH WALES HOUSING MARKET UPDATE Winter 2021
LETTINGS
↑8.7% £1,059
Average rents Average monthly After 2020, no one
October 2020 vs
October 2021
rent across the UK†
October 2021
imagined this year
would see annual
†
Excluding London, based on new tenancies started
property price growth
and sales volumes at
their strongest since
+3% before the global
financial crisis. We
Predicted
rise in rental anticipate the market
values 2022 will remain busy as
Source: RICS 2021 draws to a close,
with more sustainable
market conditions
Rental values rising emerging in the first
Taking a leaf out of the sales market, record
demand and a shortage of properties have
quarter of 2022.
seen rental values rising at their strongest pace
since the spring of 2017. Values are rising across
all regions of the UK as HomeLet report the
average monthly rent in the UK is now £1,059
(£888 excluding London). A welcome return of IAIN MCKENZIE
students, graduates and corporate renters are CEO, THE GUILD OF PROPERTY
making city locations highly sought after. For PROFESSIONALS
the first time since 2016, rental values are
predicted to rise by more than 3% in 2022.
Analysis by Dataloft HOUSING MARKET UPDATE | 3
CRYSTAL BALL
What’s in store for 2022?
Market predictions
3.2%
House price growth1
5%
Consumer price inflation2
1.3 million
Property transactions3
0.75% – 1%
Base rate of interest2
An eventful year Price growth to continue Rate rises
2021, a year of highs and lows. From The Office for Budget Responsibility Average earnings are expected
COVID-19 lockdowns to vaccination forecast property price growth will to rise by 3.9% over the course
roll-out and economic recovery, of be 3.2% over the course of 2022, of 2022. However, inflation is
Olympic and Paralympic sporting price growth calming but remaining predicted to peak at around 5%
triumph and UEFA Euro 2020 positive in each of the next five years. in 2022 (Bank of England), before
heartbreak. The property market has After a bumper year for house moves reducing over the course of the
been phenomenally busy, soaring in 2021, an estimated 1.3 million year. The base rate of interest is
demand and price rises evident across residential property transactions will also expected to rise in the coming
all four corners of the UK. But what do take place over 2022/23, 8% higher months and is predicted to reach
the latest forecasts say about the than the long-term average (HMRC, between 0.75% and 1% by the end
market in 2022 and beyond? Dataloft, 2015/16 to 2019/20). of 2022.
Source: 1Office for Budget Responsibility, 2Bank of England, 3OBR 2022/2023
For general information only. Specialist advice on investments must always be sought.
4 | WEST OF ENGLAND AND SOUTH WALES HOUSING MARKET UPDATE Winter 2021
NATIONAL
MARKET CONDITIONS
Property price growth remains firmly
in positive territory, with the average
price of a property in the UK in the
past year rising by over £25,000
(ONS). The re-evaluation of where we
want to live and our space needs,
together with more formalised
hybrid working practices, continues
to fuel buyer demand, despite the
SCOTLAND
removal of government incentives for
the majority of homebuyers. 16.9% HOUSE PRICE GROWTH
At 37 days from marketing to sold, Less than 8%
8% to 9.9%
subject to contract, homes continue
10% to 11.9%
to sell more quickly than a year ago. 12% to 13.9%
This is 24 days faster than the 14.0% and over
pre-pandemic average for this time Source: Dataloft, ONS,
UKHPI August 2021
of year (Rightmove, Dataloft, based
on average 2015–2019).
NORTH EAST
NORTHERN 13.3%
IRELAND
9.0%
NORTH WEST
12.4%
YORKSHIRE AND
THE HUMBER
8.8%
EAST MIDLANDS
Annual change in house prices 10.3%
and transactions WEST
MIDLANDS
250%
11.0% EAST OF ENGLAND
WALES
9.6%
12.5%
200%
150%
100% SOUTH
EAST
8.7%
50%
SOUTH WEST
0%
8.9%
-50%
SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG
20 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
LONDON
House prices Transactions 7.5%
Source: Dataloft, HMRC, ONS, UKHPI August 2021
Analysis by Dataloft WEST OF ENGLAND AND SOUTH WALES HOUSING MARKET UPDATE | 5
REGIONAL ACTIVITY
WEST OF ENGLAND AND
SOUTH WALES
The market is busier than in any year The Cotswolds is the most active
since 2007. In the first nine months of housing market in the West of
2021, HMRC estimate that more than England and South Wales, seeing
1.2 million homes changed hands, more than one in every 20 homes
47% higher than the long-term UK change hands over the past year. The
average (2010–2019) and just 50,000 average annual rate of stock turnover
fewer than the same period in 2007. in the area as a whole is 3.8%.
On average, there is now only 2.2
months’ worth of stock available in
the UK, compared to four months’
stock in 2019 (TwentyCi).
Cheltenham
Cheltenham
Gloucester
Gloucester
Torfaen
Torfaen
burryy
Merthyr Blaenau wkkeessbu
Merthyr
Tydfill Blaenau
Gwent TTeew
Tydfill Gwent
anan
M e
M De
off D
rest G
s o Glouc ou
ou e essttershire
t
onon
Glouc
G ershire
mmo
Fore
Fo
ouu
Neath Stroud Cotswold
Stroud Cotswold
thtshs
Neath
CC
RR
Port
CC
aearerp
ea Port
ho
hihreire
Talbot
ynyonon
nssea
ho n T Ta
Talbot
ndnddaf f
ph hi
a
n
Swa
illylly
da a
Sw ort
Newport South
nd
e Newp South
nd
Gloucestershire
idgge
Brrid Cardiff Gloucestershire
B Cardiff
Vale of
Vale of
Glamorgan
Glamorgan North
North Bath and
City of Somerset BathEast
North and
City of Somerset North East
Bristol Somerset
Bristol Somerset
% OF PRIVATE STOCK TURNOVER
Less than 3.5%
o Mendip
moo
r r
Sedggeemo
3.5% to 3.99%
Mendip
Sed
4.0% to 4.49%
Somerset
4.5% to 4.99% Somerset
West and Som
merse
mers
me rs
set
5% and over West and
Taunton Som
merse
mers
mersset
t
Taunton erse
Source: Dataloft, ONS, UKHPI August 2021,
S omerset
Census 2011. Contains OS data @Crown uth om
copyright and database right 2016. South S
So
N.B. Stock levels relate to 2011 Census data.
Some areas have seen increased amounts
of new development activity since then,
which will enhance turnover.
Sales remain brisk as demand continues
6 | WEST OF ENGLAND AND SOUTH WALES HOUSING MARKET UPDATE Winter 2021
20.4%
Mendip
On the up
The average price of a property has
increased significantly during the past
Current annual year, a number of localities experiencing
rate of price double-digit annual price growth.
change (%) Agents anticipate price growth will
Source: Dataloft, ONS, UKHPI moderate over the coming months to
more sustainable levels, with predicted
growth of 2.5% in both the South West
and Wales during 2022 (Zoopla).
Current annual rate of price change (%) £21,600 and
RANK CURRENT ANNUAL RATE
OF PRICE CHANGE (%)
AVERAGE
HOUSE PRICE £23,500
1 MENDIP 20.4 £313,340 Annual increase in average property
2 CAERPHILLY 17.8 £170,278 price in Wales and the South West
3 TORFAEN 17.1 £183,640 Dataloft, UKHPI August 2021
4 VALE OF GLAMORGAN 16.8 £277,082
5 NEATH PORT TALBOT 16.5 £145,610
Keeping warm
6 RHONDDA CYNON TAF 16.3 £138,251
COP26 focused attention on the
7 SEDGEMOOR 15.0 £261,862 environment and energy efficiency.
8 SOUTH GLOUCESTERSHIRE 13.7 £321,084 An Energy Performance Certificate
(EPC) is needed whenever a property
9 BLAENAU GWENT 13.6 £112,343 is built, sold, or rented. While 90% of
10 CARDIFF 12.4 £241,321 new build properties achieve the
highest A or B rating, just 1 in 14
11 NORTH SOMERSET 12.4 £307,733
resale properties currently reach
12 SOUTH SOMERSET 9.8 £260,040 that grade, although 60% could with
13 MERTHYR TYDFIL 9.6 £123,863 improvements. Upgrading could prove
lucrative; resale properties rated A/B
14 NEWPORT 9.2 £208,669 currently attract a 13% price premium
15 SWANSEA 9.0 £171,649 (based on £psf), compared to those
properties with the average D rating1.
16 SOMERSET WEST AND TAUNTON 8.9 £260,393
17
18
BRIDGEND
TEWKESBURY
8.8
8.4
£180,908
£310,229
75%
Home movers state EPC rating is
19 BATH AND NORTH EAST SOMERSET 8.3 £383,537 important or very important when
20 STROUD 7.3 £305,359 searching for a property1
1
Dataloft, Land Registry, MHCLG, based on
sales over the past 12 months
Source: Dataloft, ONS, UKHPI August 2021
Analysis by Dataloft WEST OF ENGLAND AND SOUTH WALES HOUSING MARKET UPDATE | 7
Did you hear... We WON! THE BRITISH PROPERTY AWARDS are one of the most inclusive estate agency awards providers as they do not charge to enter. Their team personally mystery shops every estate agent against a set of 25 criteria to obtain a balanced overview of our customer service levels.
'
ABOUT THE
'
GUILD OF
'
PROPERTY '
PROFESSIONALS
The Guild is a UK-wide network
of independent estate and letting
agents. Each of our Members
has been carefully chosen by us,
all agents adhering to our
Code of Conduct.
If you want independent guidance
on moving home or are looking
for the best agent in your area,
visit guildproperty.co.uk
The Guild of Property Professionals
121 Park Lane, Mayfair, London W1K 7AG
020 7629 4141 | parklane@guildproperty.co.uk | guildproperty.co.uk
Analysis by Dataloft
Please note: estate agents were closed during
the first lockdown in spring 2020. This will impact
year-on-year comparisons.
Dataloft is an established property market intelligence Disclaimer: This report is produced for general information
company with a long track record of analysing and only. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy
of this publication, Dataloft Ltd accepts no liability for any loss
reporting on the housing market. We are committed to or damage of any nature arising from its use. At all times the
stripping away the mystique of complex data analysis content remains the property of Dataloft Ltd under copyright,
and adding value for clients through interpretation, and reproduction of all or part of it in any form is prohibited
without written permission from Dataloft Ltd.
insight and creativity.
Date of publication: November 2021
dataloft.co.uk | dataloftinform.co.uk Analysis, editorial, design, graphics and charts by Dataloft.W: www.davidplaister.co.uk E: ed@davidplaister.co.uk Edward Plaister MNAEA T: 01934 815053 Director
You can also read
