Findings from a pre-election survey in Zimbabwe: June/July 2018
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Findings from a pre-election survey
in Zimbabwe: June/July 2018
1
At a glance
• Fear of electoral violence declined slightly but remained high: The
proportion of Zimbabweans who fear becoming a victim of electoral
violence dropped by 8 percentage points since May 2018 but is still
above average among African countries.
• Zimbabweans remained apprehensive about the possibility of
electoral manipulation: As was the case in May 2018, significant
minorities were worried about ballot secrecy, counting of votes,
announcement of incorrect results, post-election violence, and the
military not accepting election results.
• Presidential race tightened one month ahead of July 30 voting:
Among registered likely voters, incumbent Mnangagwa’s lead over
challenger Chamisa dropped from 11 to just 3 percentage points
between early May and early July. The voting intentions of 20% were
unknown.
2
Pre-election surveys
• The Institute for Justice and Reconciliation commissioned two
pre-election surveys. Fieldwork was conducted in all 10
provinces of Zimbabwe by the Mass Public Opinion Institute
(MPOI), Afrobarometer’s national partner in Zimbabwe.
• Technical assistance was provided by Afrobarometer, a pan-
African, non-partisan research network that conducts public
attitude surveys on democracy, governance, economic
conditions, and related issues in African countries.
• A baseline survey was conducted 28 April to 13 May 2018.
Findings are available at www.afrobarometer.org.
• A final pre-election survey was conducted 25 June to 6 July
2018.
3
Methodology
• Nationally representative sample of adult citizens
❑ All respondents are randomly selected.
❑ Sample is distributed across provinces and urban/rural areas in
proportion to their share in the national population.
❑ Every adult citizen has an equal chance of being selected.
• Face-to-face interviews in the language
of the respondent’s choice.
• Sample size of 2,400 in both pre-election
surveys yields results with a margin of
error of +/-2 percentage points at a 95%
confidence level.
4
Survey demographics
Gender %
Men 50
Women 50
Residence
Urban 37
Rural 63
Education
No formal education 4
Primary 23
Secondary 59
Post-secondary 14
5Nature of the campaign
Key findings
■ More than four in 10 Zimbabweans (43%) said they personally feared
becoming a victim of electoral intimidation or violence. Though high
compared to other African countries, this is an 8-percentage-point drop
from the slim majority (51%) who felt this way in early May.
■ This decline in expressions of political fear is reinforced by a growing
majority (68%) who said the current government is performing “fairly well”
or “very well” at preventing electoral violence (up from 63% in May).
■ The proportion of respondents who think that “people must be careful of
what they say about politics” dipped by 6 percentage points between
May (82%) and July (76%). But a tendency to self-censorship remained
strong (e.g. higher than a 24-country average of 70%).
■ There has been a slight improvement in the popular misperception that a
BVR slip must be produced at the polling station as a requirement to
vote: 64% in July vs. 72% in May.
7How closely citizens are following preparations
for elections | Zimbabwe | May-July 2018
100%
80%
65% 67%
60%
40% 34% 33%
20%
0%
Fairly/Very closely Not very closely/Not at all
Early May 2018 Early July 2018
Respondents were asked: How closely are you following the preparations for the 2018 elections?
8Sources of election information | Zimbabwe
| May-July 2018
Government radio 26%
40%
Friends, neighbours, co-workers 27%
32%
Political party officials 17%
27%
Government television 14%
25%
Private radio 16%
25%
Family members 18%
21%
Social media 14%
20%
Community development meetings 19%
19%
Government newspapers 11%
17%
Private newspapers 11%
16%
Private television 9%
15%
Internet 11%
14%
Traditional leaders 15%
13%
Religious leaders or gatherings 7%
6%
Election watchdog groups 3%
5%
0% 20% 40% 60%
Early May 2018 Early July 2018
Respondents were asked: How much information on the 2018 elections have you received
from the following sources?
9Sources of election information | by urban-rural location
| Zimbabwe | July 2018
Government radio 37%
46%
Political party officials 31%
21%
Friends, neighbours, co-workers 27%
41%
Community development meetings 23%
11%
Private radio 21%
32%
Traditional leaders 20%
1%
Family members 18%
25%
Social media 10%
36%
Government television 10%
50%
Government newspapers 8%
32%
Internet 6%
27%
Private newspapers 6%
33%
Religious leaders or gatherings 6%
7%
Private television 4%
32%
Election watchdog groups 3%
8%
0% 20% 40% 60%
Rural Urban
Respondents were asked: How much information on the 2018 elections have you received
from the following sources?
10Knowledge of election procedures | Zimbabwe
| May-July 2018
92%
Know that ballots will be cast for MPs and
president
91%
95%
Know voting location
99%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Early May 2018 Early July 2018
Respondents were asked: As you may know, Zimbabwe will hold elections in 2018. I would like to ask
you a few questions about these elections.
- To your knowledge, will citizens be casting ballots for members of Parliament as well as the president?
(Analysis includes all respondents.)
- Do you know the location of the polling station where you will vote? (Analysis includes only registered
voters.)
11Misuse of BVR slips | Zimbabwe | May-July 2018
100%
80%
72%
60%
64%
40%
20% 31%
25%
0%
Early May 2018 Early July 2018
Believe that voters must show BVR slip to vote
Have been asked to show BVR slip number
Respondents were asked: As you may know, Zimbabwe will hold elections in 2018. I would like to
ask you a few questions about these elections.
- To your knowledge, will a citizen have to show a biometric voter registration (BVR) slip in order
to vote? (Analysis includes all respondents.)
- Has anyone demanded to see the serial number of your voter registration slip? (Analysis
includes only registered voters.)
12Knowledge of election procedures | by political party
affiliation | Zimbabwe | July 2018
100%
100% 98%
94% 93%
80%
60% 71%
60%
40%
20% 28% 26%
0%
Know that ballots Know voting Think voters must Have been asked
will be cast for MPs location show BVR slip to to show voter
and president vote registration slip
number
MDC-T Chamisa/Alliance ZANU-PF
Respondents were asked:
- To your knowledge, will citizens be casting ballots for members of Parliament as well as the president?
(All respondents)
- To your knowledge, will a citizen have to show a biometric voter registration (BVR) slip in order to vote?
(All respondents)
- Do you know the location of the polling station where you will vote? (Registered voters only)
- Has anyone demanded to see the serial number of your voter registration slip? (Registered voters only)
13Knowledge of election procedures | by urban-rural
location | Zimbabwe | July 2018
100% 90% 92% 98% 99%
80%
66%
60%
60%
40% 29%
18%
20%
0%
Know that ballots will Know voting Think voters must Have been asked to
be cast for MPs and location show BVR slip to vote show voter
president registration slip
number
Urban Rural
Respondents were asked:
- To your knowledge, will citizens be casting ballots for members of Parliament as well as the president?
(All respondents)
- To your knowledge, will a citizen have to show a biometric voter registration (BVR) slip in order to vote?
(All respondents)
- Do you know the location of the polling station where you will vote? (Registered voters only)
- Has anyone demanded to see the serial number of your voter registration slip? (Registered voters only)
14Think that voters have to show BVR slip | by province
| Zimbabwe | July 2018
Mashonaland East 77%
Midlands 72%
Mashonaland West 69%
Masvingo 64%
Zimbabwe average 64%
Manicaland 64%
Matabeleland North 60%
Bulawayo 59%
Harare 58%
Mashonaland Central 54%
Matabeleland South 49%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Respondents were asked: To your knowledge, will a citizen have to show a biometric voter registration
(BVR) slip in order to vote? (% of all respondents who say “yes”)
15Ever heard of political party alliances | Zimbabwe
| May-July 2018
80%
75%
60%
57%
40%
25%
20% 17% 22%
16%
0%
Early May 2018 Early July 2018
Heard of MDC Alliance Heard of People’s Rainbow Coalition
Heard of Coalition of Democrats
Respondents were asked: Have you ever heard of the following political alliances?
16Attended party meetings or rallies | Zimbabwe
| May-July 2018
60%
40%
34%
28%
20%
12%
9%
6% 6%
0%
Early May 2018 Early July 2018
ZANU-PF MDC-T Chamisa MDC Alliance
Respondents were asked: Have you attended any party meetings or rallies organized by the
following parties or political party alliances during the campaign for the 2018 elections?
17Attended party meetings or rallies | by urban-rural
location | Zimbabwe | July 2018
100%
80%
60%
41%
40%
21%
20% 15%
10%
0%
Urban Rural
ZANU-PF meeting/rally MDC-T Chamisa meeting/rally
Respondents were asked: Have you attended any party meetings or rallies organized by the
following parties or political party alliances during the campaign for the 2018 elections?
18Attended party meetings or rallies | by province
| Zimbabwe | July 2018
Mashonaland Central 48%
8%
Midlands 47%
11%
Masvingo 41%
13%
Matabeleland South 36%
11%
Mashonaland West 36%
13%
Manicaland 32%
10%
Mashonaland East 32%
10%
Matabeleland North 26%
24%
Harare 21%
11%
Bulawayo 16%
10%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
ZANU-PF meeting/rally MDC-T Chamisa meeting/rally
Respondents were asked: Have you attended any party meetings or rallies organized by the
following parties or political party alliances during the campaign for the 2018 elections?
19Trust in leaders | Zimbabwe | May-July 2018
100%
80%
70%
67%
60% 53%
48% 50%
47% 47%
40%
40% 35% 33%
20%
5%
0%
President MDC-T Former MDC-T Khupe Traditional Religious
Mnangagwa Chamisa President leaders leaders
Mugabe
Early May 2018 Early July 2018
Respondents were asked: How much do you trust each of the following, or haven’t you heard
enough about them to say? (% who say “somewhat” or “a lot”
20Trust in leaders | by urban-rural location | Zimbabwe
| July 2018
100%
80%
72%
69% 67%
62%
60%
50%
41% 40% 39%
40%
24% 26%
20%
0%
President Nelson Former President Traditional Religious leaders
Mnangagwa Chamisa Mugabe leaders
Urban Rural
Respondents were asked: How much do you trust each of the following, or haven’t you heard
enough about them to say? (% who say “somewhat” or “a lot”)
21Careful about what one says | Zimbabwe | May-July 2018
100%
80% 82%
76%
60%
40%
23%
20%
17%
0%
Early May 2018 Early July 2018
Often/Always Rarely/Never
Respondents were asked: In your opinion, how often, in this country, do people have to be careful
of what they say about politics?
22Careful about what one says | by political party
affiliation | Zimbabwe | July 2018
100%
16%
29% 28% 23%
80%
60%
40% 84%
71% 73% 76%
20%
0%
MDC-T Chamisa/ ZANU-PF Other parties Not close to a
Alliance party/Refused/Don't
know
Often/Always Rarely/Never
Respondents were asked: In your opinion, how often, in this country, do people have to be careful
of what they say about politics?
23Government performance: Prevention of political
violence during election campaigns | Zimbabwe
| May-July 2018
100%
80%
68%
63%
60%
40%
31% 28%
20%
0%
Fairly/Very well Fairly/Very badly
Early May 2018 Early July 2018
Respondents were asked: Now let’s speak about the performance of the present government of
this country, that is, the government in power since November 2017. How well or badly would you
say this new government is handling the following matters, or haven’t you heard enough to say:
Preventing political violence during election campaigns?
24Fear of electoral intimidation or violence | Zimbabwe
| May-July 2018
80%
60%
56%
51%
48%
40% 43%
20%
0%
Early May 2018 Early July 2018
Somewhat/A lot A little bit/Not at all
Respondents were asked: During election campaigns in this country, how much do you personally
fear becoming a victim of political intimidation or violence?
25Kenya 56%
Lesotho 53%
Guinea 49%
Uganda 48%
Fear of electoral Zambia 47%
intimidation or Swaziland
Zimbabwe
43%
43%
violence Gabon 42%
Togo 41%
| 24 African countries Nigeria 33%
| 2016/2018 Mali
24-country average
32%
30%
Malawi 27%
Tanzania 26%
Respondents were asked:
Ghana 23%
During election campaigns
Côte d'Ivoire 22%
in this country, how much
do you personally fear Benin 21%
becoming a victim of Niger 18%
political intimidation or Senegal 16%
violence? Namibia 14%
Burkina Faso 14%
(Result for Zimbabwe is Mauritius 13%
from early July 2018) Botswana 12%
Madagascar 11%
Cape Verde 8%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
26Fear of electoral intimidation or violence | by political
party affiliation | Zimbabwe | July 2018
MDC-T Chamisa/Alliance 48%
ZANU-PF 38%
Other parties 40%
Not close to a party/Refused/Don’t know 45%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Respondents were asked: During election campaigns in this country, how much do you personally
fear becoming a victim of political intimidation or violence? (% who say “somewhat” or “a lot”)
27Fear of electoral intimidation or violence | by province
| Zimbabwe | July 2018
Mashonaland East 71%
Harare 50%
Mashonaland Central 47%
Midlands 46%
Mashonaland West 44%
Manicaland 42%
Bulawayo 30%
Matabeleland South 27%
Matabeleland North 24%
Masvingo 23%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Respondents were asked: During election campaigns in this country, how much do you personally
fear becoming a victim of political intimidation or violence? (% who say “somewhat” or “a lot”)
28Confidence in elections
Key findings
■ Zimbabweans remained apprehensive about manipulated election
results. As in early May, significant minorities in early July were worried
about ballot secrecy, counting of votes, announcement of incorrect
results, post-election violence, and the military not accepting election
results.
■ About one-third of respondents still saw the Zimbabwe Electoral
Commission as a biased rather than neutral body.
■ Even so, a clear majority (60%) remained optimistic that the election
will be largely free and fair. And three-fourths continued to believe
that elections are more likely to “improve lives” rather than “change
nothing.”
■ Six out of 10 Zimbabweans (62%) continued to feel that the presence
of uniformed police at polling stations will improve the integrity of the
election, but support for the presence of uniformed military personnel
at the polls declined from 47% to 41% between May and July.
30Popular expectations about elections | Zimbabwe
| May-July 2018
100%
75% 77%
80%
60%
62% 60%
40%
20%
0%
Early May 2018 Early July 2018
Agree/Agree very strongly that voting can improve life
2018 election will be "completely free and fair" or "free and fair with minor problems"
Respondents were asked:
- Which of the following statements is closest to your view?
Statement 1: No matter whom we vote for, things will not get better in the future.
Statement 2: We can use our power as voters to choose leaders who will help us improve our lives.
- How free and fair do you expect the next elections of 2018 to be?
31Assessment of primary elections | Zimbabwe | July 2018
100%
80%
60%
48%
44%
40%
40% 33%
19%
20% 15%
0%
ZANU-PF MDC-T Chamisa
Free and fair (completely or with minor problems)
Free and fair with major problems/Not free and fair
Don't know/Don't understand the question
Respondents were asked: What about the recently concluded political party primaries? How
free and fair would you say they were for each of the following parties?
32Primary elections free and fair (completely or with minor
problems) | by province | Zimbabwe | July 2018
ZANU-PF MDC-T Chamisa
Masvingo 68% 41%
Mashonaland East 56% 30%
Matabeleland South 53% 33%
Midlands 52% 34%
Mashonaland Central 42% 14%
Manicaland 40% 34%
Mashonaland West 40% 31%
Harare 35% 42%
Bulawayo 26% 27%
Matabeleland North 26% 25%
Respondents were asked: What about the recently concluded political party primaries?
How free and fair would you say they were for each of the following parties?
33Is ZEC neutral or biased? | Zimbabwe | May-July 2018
May 2018 July 2018
Agree very Agree very
strongly that strongly that
ZEC is neutral ZEC is neutral
Agree that 13% Agree that
17% ZEC is neutral ZEC is neutral
30% 27%
Agree that Agree that
ZEC is biased 22% ZEC is biased
21%
Agree very Agree very
23% strongly that 26% strongly that
9% 12%
ZEC is biased ZEC is biased
Agree with Agree with
neither/Don't neither/Don't
know know
Respondents were asked: Which of the following statements is closest to your view?
Statement 1: The Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) performs its duties as a neutral body
guided only by law.
Statement 2: The Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) makes decisions that favour particular
people, parties or interests.
(% who “agree” or “agree very strongly” with each statement)
34Feel more secure with police/military personnel at
polling stations? | Zimbabwe | May-July 2018
100%
80%
61% 62%
60%
40% 48%
41%
20%
0%
Early May 2018 Early July 2018
Uniformed military personnel Uniformed police
Respondents were asked: Would the presence of the following security agents at polling stations
make you feel more secure, make no difference, or make you feel less secure?
- Uniformed military personnel
- Uniformed police
(% who say “more secure” or “much more secure”
35Likelihood of election irregularities | Zimbabwe
| May-July 2018
60%
44% 45%
40%
31%
28%
29%
20% 26%
0%
Early May 2018 Early July 2018
Powerful will find out how you voted Vote won't be counted
Incorrect results will be announced
Respondents were asked: In your opinion, how likely will the following things happen in the 2018 elections:
A. Even though there is supposed to be a secret ballot in this country, powerful people will find out how you
have voted?
B. Even though you will cast a ballot, your vote will not actually be counted?
C. Even after all ballots are counted, an incorrect result will be announced?
(% who say “somewhat likely” or “very likely”)
36Concerns about post-election period | Zimbabwe
| May-July 2018
60%
41% 44%
40%
40%
20%
0%
Early May 2018 Early July 2018
Post-election violence somewhat/very likely
Somewhat/Very likely that security agencies won't accept presidential election results
Respondents were asked: In your view, how likely is it that:
- There will be violence after the announcement of election results?
- Security agencies will not accept the result of the presidential election?
37Concerns about post-election period | by urban-rural
location | Zimbabwe | July 2018
100%
80%
60%
48% 48%
41% 42%
40%
20%
0%
Post-election violence somewhat/very Somewhat/Very likely that security
likely agencies won't accept presidential
election results
Urban Rural
Respondents were asked: In your view, how likely is it that:
- There will be violence after the announcement of election results?
- Security agencies will not accept the result of the presidential election?
38Voting intentions
Key findings
■ The survey confirms high levels of self-reported voter
registration: 88%, up by 3 percentage points from early May.
■ Almost nine out of 10 respondents said they will “definitely”
(77%) or “probably” (9%) vote in the 2018 election.
■ In the presidential race, Chamisa appears to have benefited
from a slight increase in party identification and a popular
perception that he would be the candidate better able to
address Zimbabweans’ top campaign issue – job creation.
■ Between early May and early July, Mnangagwa’s lead over
Chamisa among registered likely voters dropped from 11 to
just 3 percentage points: 40% to 37%.
■ The voting intentions of 20% of registered likely voters were
unknown.
40Registered (self-reported) and likely to vote | Zimbabwe
| May-July 2018
100%
88%
86% 86%
85%
80%
60%
Early May 2018 Early July 2018
Registered to vote Will probably/definitely vote
Respondents were asked:
- Are you registered to vote in the upcoming 2018 elections?
- How likely are you to vote in the 2018 elections?
41Registered (self-reported) and likely to vote | by
political party affiliation | Zimbabwe | July 2018
100% 93% 93% 92% 91%
87% 87%
80%
80% 76%
60%
40%
20%
0%
ZANU-PF MDC-T Other parties Not close to a
Chamisa/Alliance party/Refused/Don't
know
Registered to vote (self-reported) Will probably/definitely vote
Respondents were asked:
- Are you registered to vote in the upcoming 2018 elections?
- How likely are you to vote in the 2018 elections?
42Registered to vote (self-reported) | by province
| Zimbabwe | July 2018
Masvingo 92%
Mashonaland Central 91%
Midlands 91%
Mashonaland West 90%
Mashonaland East 89%
Bulawayo 85%
Manicaland 85%
Harare 85%
Matabeleland South 84%
Matabeleland North 83%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Respondents were asked: Are you registered to vote in the upcoming 2018 elections?
43Party identification | Zimbabwe | May-July 2018
100%
80%
60% 68%
65%
40%
20%
0%
Early May 2018 Early July 2018
Respondents were asked: Do you feel close to any particular political party?
(% who say “yes”)
44Party identification | Zimbabwe | May-July 2018
May 2018 July 2018
ZANU-PF ZANU-PF
MDC-T MDC-T
35% Chamisa/ 36% 34% Chamisa/
40%
Alliance Alliance
Other party Other party
1%
1%
24% Not close to a 29% Not close to a
party/Refused party/Refused
/Don't know /Don't know
Respondents were asked: Do you feel close to any particular political party? (If yes:) Which
party is that?
45Who would be better at job creation? | Zimbabwe
| July 2018
100%
80%
60%
42%
40%
32%
20% 18%
8%
0%
Nelson Chamisa Emmerson Neither of them Don't know/Refused
Mnangagwa to answer
Respondents were asked: Most people in Zimbabwe think that the present election campaign
is mainly about job creation. Of the following presidential candidates, who do you think will do
a better job in creating jobs for the people?
46Who would be better at job creation? | by political party
affiliation and urban-rural location | Zimbabwe | July 2018
MDC-T Chamisa/Alliance supporters 93%
3%
ZANU-PF supporters 7%
75%
Other party supporters 59%
5%
Not close to a party/Refused/Don't know 34%
16%
Rural 36%
37%
Urban 53%
24%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Nelson Chamisa Emmerson Mnangagwa
Respondents were asked: Most people in Zimbabwe think that the present election campaign
is mainly about job creation. Of the following presidential candidates, who do you think will do
a better job in creating jobs for the people?
47Voting intentions in the presidential election | Zimbabwe
| July 2018
100%
80%
60%
40%
40% 37%
20%
20%
3%
0%
ZANU-PF MDC-T Refused/Don't Other parties
Chamisa/Alliance know/Will not vote
Respondents were asked: If presidential elections were held tomorrow, which party’s
candidate would you vote for? (Note: Analysis includes registered likely voters only.)
48Change in voting intentions in the presidential election
| Zimbabwe | May-July 2018
60%
42%
40%
40%
37%
31%
20%
0%
Early May 2018 Early July 2018
ZANU-PF MDC-T Chamisa/Alliance
Respondents were asked: If presidential elections were held tomorrow, which party’s
candidate would you vote for? (Note: Analysis includes registered likely voters only.)
49Voting intentions in the presidential election | by
urban-rural location | Zimbabwe | July 2018
100%
80%
60%
49% 48%
40%
40% 37%
30%
26%
23%
19% 20%
20%
3% 3% 3%
0%
Urban Rural Average
MDC-T Chamisa/Alliance ZANU-PF
Refused/Don't know/Would not vote Other parties
Respondents were asked: If presidential elections were held tomorrow, which party’s
candidate would you vote for? (Note: Analysis includes registered likely voters only.)
50Voting intentions in the presidential election | by
province | Zimbabwe | July 2018
Bulawayo 18% 50%
Matabeleland North 26% 49%
Harare 30% 45%
Matabeleland South 35% 38%
Manicaland 37% 44%
Mashonaland East 47% 31%
Midlands 47% 30%
Mashonaland Central 47% 25%
Masvingo 47% 26%
Mashonaland West 49% 36%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
ZANU-PF MDC-T Chamisa/Alliance
Respondents were asked: If presidential elections were held tomorrow, which party’s
candidate would you vote for? (Note: Analysis includes registered likely voters only.)
51Voting intentions in the parliamentary election
| Zimbabwe | May-July 2018
100%
80%
60%
43% 41%
40% 36%
30%
25%
20%
20%
2% 3%
0%
ZANU-PF MDC-T Refused/Don't Other parties
Chamisa/Alliance know/Would not
vote
Early May 2018 Early July 2018
Respondents were asked: If elections were held tomorrow, which party’s or alliance’s
candidate would you vote for as member of Parliament? (Note: Analysis includes registered
likely voters only.)
52Voting intentions in the parliamentary election | by
urban-rural location | Zimbabwe | July 2018
100%
80%
60%
50% 48%
40%
29%
25% 23%
18%
20%
4% 3%
0%
ZANU-PF MDC-T Refused/Don't Other parties
Chamisa/Alliance know/Would not
vote
Urban Rural
Respondents were asked: If elections were held tomorrow, which party’s or alliance’s
candidate would you vote for as member of Parliament? (Note: Analysis includes registered
likely voters only.)
53Voting intentions in the parliamentary election
| Zimbabwe | 2018
MDC-T Refused/
ZANU-PF Chamisa/ Don’t know/ Other parties
Alliance Would not vote
Mashonaland West 53% 34% 11% 3%
Mashonaland East 51% 27% 22% 1%
Mashonaland Central 50% 24% 17% 9%
Masvingo 49% 27% 20% 4%
Midlands 48% 29% 21% 2%
Matabeleland South 37% 34% 20% 8%
Manicaland 36% 44% 19% 1%
Harare 29% 44% 26% 1%
Matabeleland North 27% 47% 20% 7%
Bulawayo 18% 50% 24% 8%
Respondents were asked: If elections were held tomorrow, which party’s or alliance’s
candidate would you vote for as member of Parliament? (Note: Analysis includes registered
likely voters only.)
54‘Wisdom of the crowd’: Expected winner of presidential
election | Zimbabwe | May-July 2018
100%
80%
60%
44% 43%
40% 34%
29%
23%
20% 17%
3% 5%
0%
ZANU-PF MDC-T Election is too close Refused/Don't
Chamisa/Alliance to call know
Early May 2018 Early July 2018
Respondents were asked: Regardless of whether or not you will vote, or who you will vote for,
which party’s or alliance’s candidate do you expect, ultimately, will win the 2018 presidential
election? (Note: Analysis includes all respondents.)
55Prospects for a Government of National Unity | Zimbabwe
| July 2018
Support for GNU Likelihood of a GNU
Favour GNU if Somewhat/
5% 12%
there's no very likely
clear victory
41% Not very/Not
35% Oppose GNU
at all likely
60% Refused/
Refused/Don't 47% Don't know
know
Respondents were asked:
- If no presidential candidate achieves a clear victory, would you want Zimbabwe to have a
Government of National Unity (GNU)?
- In your view, how likely is it that the main political parties will agree to share power in a second GNU?
(Note: Analysis includes all respondents.)
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