Global Education. Innovation, Investment & Technology - Patrick Brothers, Co-CEO HolonIQ
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Global Education. Innovation, Investment & Technology Patrick Brothers, Co-CEO HolonIQ December 2020
We are building the world's smartest source of global education intelligence to power decisions that matter.
Agenda 01 Size and Shape 02 Global Learning Landscape 03 Investment and Funding Flows 04 Market Landscape 05 Education in 2030
Size and Shape
HOLONIQ. SIZE AND SHAPE
2 Billion more learners between now and 2050
Global Population by Highest Level of Education Attainment.
Billions of People (1990-2050F)
10 9.4B 1990-2020 2020-2050
9
7.8B Post Secondary +640M +970M
8
7
5.3B
6
Secondary +1,500M +1,200M
5
4
3
Primary +130M -180M
2 No Education -70M -250M
1 Under 15
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Source: Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital
HOLONIQ. SIZE AND SHAPE Disruption & Growth Strategy. Almost 85% of respondents expect disruption to their part of the education market before 2025 - 57% of those expecting disruption within the next 24 months. Almost a quarter of respondents cite technology as their top growth strategy going forward, an increase of 10% over the past two surveys. Source: HolonIQ, 28 March 2019
HOLONIQ. SIZE AND SHAPE
Pre-COVID Growth Expectations
Corporate Pre-K Pre-K
Training Corporate
Training
5.9T 7.8T
2018 2025
K12
K12
Post Secondary Post
Secondary
Source: HolonIQ, 28 January 2019
HOLONIQ. SIZE AND SHAPE
Material changes to global education
Global Education & Training Expenditure, USD Trillions
PRE COVID $7.8T
$8.0T 4.8% CAGR $7.4T
$7.1T
$7.0T $6.8T
$5.9T $6.3T
$6.5T
$6.8T $7.3T
$6.0T $6.4T
$6.0T
$5.0T $5.4T $5.5T POST COVID
3.6% CAGR
$4.0T
Strong underlying Higher Education Tuition Faster/Cheaper Credible Digitization drives lower
population growth Deflation Alternatives cost base
$3.0T
+400 million more people Record tuition inflation Industry credentials, Digital drives greater
on earth by 2025. Asian led comes to an end as alternatives pathways to administrative productivity
$2.0T acceleration in early governments and work and a progressively and efficiencies from a
childhood and K-12. consumers demand ‘skills’ focused economy predominately analogue
improved access, drives substitutes and foundation.
$1.0T
affordability and stronger alternatives.
ROI.
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
HOLONIQ. SIZE AND SHAPE
EdTech is accelerating 5.2%
Digital
Spend
Global ‘EdTech’ Expenditure, USD Billions $404B
$400B POST COVID
$365B
16.3% CAGR
$327B
Digital $295B
$300B 2.7% $268B $341B
Spend $304B
$227B $272B
$163B $247B PRE COVID
$200B $223B 13.1% CAGR
$203B
Short Term Surge, Long Digital Infrastructure Rise of B2C EdTech models. Mobile and Advanced
Term Transition. ‘Catch-Up’ Students, parents and Technology Enablers
$100B Rough start to remote LMS, SIS, Cloud, Privacy, workers all looking for Mobile, personalised,
learning, normalising into Security. Most schools and learning support, upskilling unbundled, social & gamified
sustained long-term digital colleges are at the start of a and other direct outcomes. learning driven by mobility,
integration. long digital maturity journey. big data, cloud and AI/ML.
$0B
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Total Expenditure $5.9T $6.3T $6.5T $6.8T $7.1T $7.4T $7.8T
Digital Expenditure $163B $227B $268B $295B $327B $365B $404B
Digital Share 2.7% 3.6% 4.1% 4.3% 4.6% 4.9% 5.2%
HOLONIQ. MARKET LANDSCAPE
Innovation across the entire Learner Lifecycle
K12 Higher
Education
Early Workforce
ChildhoodGLOBAL EDUCATION. RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES
2018 vs 2025. Advanced Technology in Education.
$12.6B
$6.1B
$3.1B
$1.8B
$1.3B
$0.8B $0.6B
$0.1B
AR/VR AI Robotics BlockchainGLOBAL EDUCATION. RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES Advanced Technology. Retorio Clip?
HOLONIQ. MARKET LANDSCAPE
Global AI Strategy Landscape
Australia. ‘Prosperity Through Austria. ‘Robot Council’ Brazil. ‘E-Digital Strategy’ Canada. ‘Pan-Canadian AI Strategy’
Innovation’ Established a Robot Council in August E-Digital Strategy addresses digital Five-year, $125m plan announced in 2017
Four-year, $21m investment from national 2017, with a one million euros working transformation including AI federal budget. Led by CIFAR. Research
budget to support development of AI. budget from the Ministry of Infrastructure. and talent focus.
China. ‘Next Generation AI’ Denmark. ‘Digital Growth Strategy’ Estonia. AI Task Force Finland. Steering Group
Launched July 2017, the most Broader policy focused on Big Data and E-governance forerunner, initially Steering Group appointed May 17
comprehensive AI strategy globally with IoT launched Jan 2018. focused on autonomous cars, now releasing two interim reports. Full
2030 targets for a $1T RMB AI industry building a broader AI strategy. strategy expected very soon.
France. ‘AI for Humanity’ Germany. India. ‘Social Inclusion and AI Garage’ Indonesia
€1.5 billion plan announced in 2018 in the €3 billion plan announced Nov 2018 with Jun 2018 working paper on using AI to Leading Asia-Pacific market in the
‘Villani Report’ to transform France into a a dedicated AI strategy to make ensure social growth, inclusion and adoption of and plans for AI however no
global leader in AI. Germany & Europe a global leader in AI. positioning the country as a leader in AI dedicated AI strategy as yet
Ireland. ‘AI Island’ Israel. ’StartUp Nation needs AI Policy’ Italy. ‘At the Service of Citizens’ Japan. ‘Society 5.0’
Irish Economic Development Agency led Innovation Authority, tasked with AI Interdisciplinary AI Task Force launched Strategy launched in 2017 to create
process. AI Master program launched in policies, has warned that a strategy is by ‘Digital Italy’. White paper March 2018, sustainable solutions for better human
2018 and is 100% industry driven. needed to prevent falling behind. ‘AI: At the Service of Citizens”. life in Japan.
Kenya. Blockchain and AI Task Force Malaysia. National AI Framework Malta. ‘Malta.ai’ Mexico. ‘Towards an AI Strategy’
Task Force established Feb 2018 with a National AI Framework launched in 2018 Malta.ai launched Mar 2019 to share Commissioned by the British Embassy in
five-year planning horizon. led by MDEC, expanding the National vision and process towards an AI Mexico and released in June 2018. Sets
Big Data Analytics Framework. strategy. foundations for a national AI strategy.
New Zealand. AI Forum Poland. Roundtable Qatar. Feb 19 Blueprint Russia. Mar 18 Conference
May 2018, AI Forum released a report May 2018 Roundtable on AI Strategy Qatar Center for Artificial Intelligence March 2018 conference made 10 policy
titled, “Artificial Intelligence: Shaping a focused on healthcare, public (QCAI) launched National AI Strategy for recommendations. National Strategy
Future New Zealand.” administration, education & cybersecurity Qatar. Announced on 7 February 2019. expected very soon.
Singapore. ‘AI Singapore’ Saudi Arabia. ‘Robot Citizenship’ South Africa. ‘IFPTI considers AI’ South Korea
S$150m, five-year national program Became the first country to grant Intsimbi Future Production Technologies Five-year AI development plan launched
launched May 2017. citizenship to a robot in October 2017. No Initiative” launched in 2018 with aim to May 2018 with $1.95B budget.
dedicated AI strategy yet. advancing manufacturing sector.
Sri Lanka Sweden Taiwan. ‘Taiwan AI Action Plan’ Tunisia
National Expert Strategy Advisory National Approach for Artificial Four-year plan launched January 2018, AI Task Force and Steering Committee
Committee announced Aug 2018 working Intelligence launched in May 2018. with 350m annual budget. appointed in April 2018. Strategy
on AI Strategy for Sri Lanka expected very soon
UAE United Kingdom. ‘AI Sector Deal’ United States. ‘American AI Initiative’
Announced in Oct 2017. First country to Announced in April 2018. $1.24B funding Launched Feb 2019 by Executive Order
create a Ministry of AI and first in the as part of the UK’s larger industrial promote and protect AI technology.
Middle East to launch an AI strategy strategy. AI.gov launched Mar 2019.
Source: HolonIQ, Government Publications and AnnouncementsGlobal Learning Landscape
HOLONIQ. FRAMEWORKS ‘Bottom Up’ – Machine Learning In order to support the development of the taxonomy, we initially undertook ‘bottom-up’ analysis using HolonIQ’s proprietary machine learning and artificial intelligence to analyze 60,000+ education organizations worldwide. The analysis identified natural patterns in the data using uses 'Unsupervised Learning' to explore new approaches to clustering and segmentation that are not anchored or biased by the more established and traditional taxonomies of education. The visualization on the right-hand side of the page for example is exploring the network of organizations in a single country. Organizations that are similar in how they support learners, parents, schools and institutions are clustered together based on the segments they service and the models and technologies they employ.
HOLONIQ. FRAMEWORKS
‘Top Down’ - Human Expertise
HolonIQ’s Education Intelligence Unit and our global
network of experts from early childhood to lifelong learning
bring deep expertise to our ‘top-down’ approach.
The top-down analysis draws on the data-driven
foundations of the bottom-up analysis to interpret
patterns that the machine learning and artificial
intelligence process produced.
Considerations include context, history, purpose, business
model, technologies and ecosystem relationships to add
depth and interpretive understanding to the process. This
also enables validation of findings against the models and
innovations found in education today or expected in the
future.THE GLOBAL LEARNING LANDSCAPE
Global Learning Landscape
globallearninglandscape.orgHOLONIQ. FRAMEWORKS Higher Education Digital Capability Framework www.digitalcapability.org
HOLONIQ. FRAMEWORKS
Diagnosis and Action
The Open Source Framework identifies key domains and capabilities required for digital delivery across the whole
student lifecycle and provides a structure to facilitate cross-institution conversations. It is designed to allow flexibility
and interpretation in context. The 70+ capability blocks can be used to assess institutional strength in areas of strategic
priority, to conduct internal and external benchmarking and ultimately to guide strategic procurement decisions.
Open Source HEDC Framework Tools to support capability building and decision making
Institutional
diagnostic survey
Self-assessment Strategic decisions
against 60+ digital
& digital choices
capabilities
Buy | Build | Partner
Benchmarked People | Process | Tech
results
Internal and external
benchmarkingInvestment and Funding Flows
HOLONIQ. CAPITAL FLOWS
$26B+ of venture capital fueling social impact.
Global Education and Health Venture Capital Funding, Q1-Q3 2020 in USD Billions
Global EdTech vs HeathTech VC. Q1-Q3 2020 Regional VC Investment Share. Q1-Q3 2020
Asia 18.0B 8.2B 18.0B
North America 0.1 0.2 0.1
1.4 0.5 1.4
Europe
RoW 3.8 3.8
1.9
8.2B
0.2 0.5
1.9 12.7 5.6 12.7
5.6
EdTech HealthTech EdTech HealthTech
Source: HolonIQ, November 2020. www.holoniq.comHOLONIQ. CAPITAL FLOWS
Global Capital vs Education AND Health Flows
$88T
$85T
$8T
$6T
$5T
$300B
Global GDP Global Market Cap Global Healthcare Global Healthcare Global Education Global Education
Market Market Cap Market Market Cap
Source. HolonIQ, World Health Organization, Goldman Sachs. Standard & Poors. All figures are rounded estimates based on source research.HOLONIQ. CAPITAL FLOWS
$8.3B of Global EdTech VC 2020 after Q3.
Global Education Venture Capital Funding, 2010-3Q2020 in USD Billions 8.2B 8.3B
China 20.3B
7.0B
USA 12.5B
India 3.8B
Europe 2.0B
RoW 2.1B 4.4B
4.2B
3.2B
1.8B
1.3B
0.9B
0.5B 0.7B
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 3Q20
Source: HolonIQ, October 2020. All numbers rounded. www.holoniq.comHOLONIQ. CAPITAL FLOWS
$8.3B of Global EdTech VC 2020 after Q3.
Global Education Venture Capital Funding, 2010-3Q2020 in USD Billions
0.5B 0.7B 0.9B 1.3B 1.8B 4.2B 3.2B 4.4B 8.2B 7.0B 8.3B
US
China
India
Europe
RoW
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 3Q20
Source: HolonIQ, October 2020. All numbers rounded. www.holoniq.comHOLONIQ. CAPITAL FLOWS
$5.1B of the $8.3B in 23 Mega Rounds (> $100m)
Global Education Venture Capital Funding, 2020 Calendar Quarters in USD Billions
3.6B
China 3.5B
India 2.0B
USA 1.9B
2.8B
RoW 0.8B
2.0B
Q1 Q2 Q3
Source: HolonIQ, October 2020. All numbers rounded. www.holoniq.comHOLONIQ. CAPITAL FLOWS Strong supply of capital with more focused investors
HOLONIQ. CAPITAL FLOWS
Global EdTech Unicorn Evolution $500M
$750M
$1B
$130M
$157M
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Regional Market Maps
GLOBAL EDUCATION. RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES Platform Shot World Ecosystems
GLOBAL EDUCATION. RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES Tech Giants
GLOBAL EDUCATION. RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES Platform Shot New York
2020 CHINA EDTECH 100
Transforming the way the world learns 中国教育科技百强会
⼀起作业 能⼒天空 阿卡索外教⽹ 爱学堂 爱乐奇 昂程教育 宝宝巴⼠ 彼岸教育 智慧树 贝乐学科英语 汇聚天下⽹师 CHINA ADMISSIONS 编程猫
17Zhoyue Able Sky Acadsoc Aixuetang ALO7 Technology AngCheng Baobao Bashi Beacon Education BBTREE Best Learning English Changingedu China Admissions Code Mao
卓越教育
编玩边学 哒哒英语 得道 叮咚课堂 东⽅优播 易思汇 翼鸥教育 Enjoy Technology E听说 Excellence in 极课⼤数据 ⾼思教育 银杏教育
codePKU DaDa Dedao Ding Dong Class Dong Fang You Bo Easy Transfer EEO Enjoy Technology ETS Education Fclassroom Gaosi Education Gingko Education
环球教育
Global Education & ⾼顿财经 格燃 海风教育 嗨学⽹ 河⼩象 核桃编程 沪江 画啦啦少⼉美术 慧科教育 慧沃 ⽕花思维 italki
Technology Golden Education Grand Education Haifeng Haixue He Xiaoxiang Hetao101 Hu Jiang Hualala Hui Ke Education Huivo Huohua Siwei italki
⻨奇教育 叽⾥呱啦 极客晨星 极客学院 极课云 叽⾥呱啦 凯叔讲故事 考⾍ 作业盒⼦ 考拉阅读 快陪练 兰迪少⼉英语 魔⼒⽿朵
iTutorGroup Ji Li Guala Jikestar Jike Xue Yuan Jikeyun Jiliguala Kaishu Jianggushi Kao Chong Knowbox Koala Reading Kuaipeilian Landi English Magic Ears
童⼼制物 美术宝 ⼩熊尼奥 ⽹龙 诺亚⾈ 欧美思 洋葱数学 VIP陪练 保利威 葡萄英语 亲宝宝。 久趣 果壳教育
Makeblock Mei Shu Bao NeoBear NetDragon Education Noah OMS Education Onion Math Peilian PolyV Putao ABC Qinbaobao Qkids Rainbow
三⽴教育
乐博乐博 三节课 Sanli VIP Training 三育教育 上海易教 厦门神州鹰 智课教育 寓乐湾 新华国采 图灵机器⼈ 优必杰 职优你 VIPKID
Roborobo Sanjieke Center Sanyu Education Shanghai Edutech Shen Zhou Ying Smart Study STEMedu Tianyancha Turing Robot UBGenius UniCareer VIP Kid
豌⾖思维 维欧 万学 ⼩码王 晓⽺教育 ⼩站教育 ⻄⽠创客 邢帅教育 熊猫博⼠ 学霸 学⽽思⽹校 学乐云教学 学堂在线
VIPThink VO Art Union Wanxue Education XiaoMa.Wang Xiaoyang Xiaozhan Jiaoyu Xigua Chuangke Xingshuai Teach Xiongmao Boshi Xue Ba Xueersi Xueleyun XuetangX
www.holoniq.com
松⿏ 猿辅导 云舒写 云学堂 掌门 掌通家园 知乎 众合教育 作业帮
YiXue Squirrel AI Yuan Fu Dao Yunshuxie Yunxuetang Zhang Men Zhang Tong Jia Men Zhihu Zhonghe Edu ZhuoyebangLEARNING CONTENT & RESOURCES STEAM & CODING EDUCATION FINANCING
TUTORING & TEST PREP
50
AFRICA EDTECH
JOBS & UPSKILLING
www.holoniq.com
SUPPORTING TEACHERS & SCHOOLS
LANGUAGE & LITERACYLANGUAGE LEARNING ONLINE HIGHER EDUCATION TALENT ACQUISITION
TUTORING & LEARNING SUPPORT
MANAGEMENT PLATFORMS
EXAMS & TEST PREP 2020
100
RUSSIA AND CIS EDTECH
ROBOTICS, STEAM & CODING
www.holoniq.com
WORKFORCE & UPSKILLING
CURRICULUM & LEARNING PLATFORM
XR, GAMES & SIMULATIONXR, GAMES AND SIMULATION TEACHER AND STUDENT SUPPORT ASSESSMENT
MANAGEMENT PLATFORMS
LEARNING RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENTS
2020
AI & ROBOTICS
NORDIC-BALTIC
50
EDTECH
STEAM AND CODING www.holoniq.com
LANGUAGE LEARNING
WORKFORCE UPSKILLINGLANGUAGE LEARNING STEAM & CODING EDUCATION FINANCING
VERIFICATION
50
SOUTHEAST ASIA EDTECH
SKILLS & JOBS
MANAGEMENT & LEARNING ENVIRONMENTS
www.holoniq.com
HIGHER EDUCATION
LEARNER SUPPORT, TUTORING & TEST PREP
HolonIQ - July 2020RECURSOS EDUCATIVOS Y EXPERIENCIAS TECNOLOGÍA STEAM Y PROGRAMACIÓN APRENDIZAJE DE IDIOMAS
FINANCIAMIENTO EDUCATIVO
2020 LATAM EDTECH
100
HABILIDADES PARA EL MUNDO LABORAL ENTORNOS DE APRENDIZAJE
www.holoniq.com
SISTEMAS DE GESTIÓN
TUTORÍAS Y PREPARACIÓN PARA EXÁMENESTrends and Scenarios
GLOBAL EDUCATION EXECUTIVE BRIEF
Education in 2030. Five Scenarios
Education-as-Usual
Traditional education institutions remain the trusted source of
Regional Rising learning and the most effective vehicle for jobs and prosperity. Higher
Education consolidates, global talent platforms emerge and
Education Giants government remains the core source of funding around the world.
Global Giants Regional Collaboration
Industry Giants
Regional Rising
Regional alliances dominate the competitive education landscape,
Regional Credentialing
Access and Equity
supported by strategic and political cooperation. Cooperative
blended delivery and regional talent hubs cross-load labor supply
Tech Giants and demand to strengthen regions.
Global Giants
Hybrid
Social Platforms
This global free market environment has fostered the emergence of
‘mega-organisations’ with ubiquitous brand recognition and the
OER
Peer Learning
Education-as-Usual scale to achieve significant efficiencies and industry power.
MOOCs
Peer to Peer
Blockchain
Peer to Peer
Digital Assistants
Learning online through rich, personalized human to human
experiences dominates the post-secondary and skills training
sectors. Blockchain technology fundamentally reconfigures
Smart Classrooms credentialing and unlocks the collective creativity and IP of teachers.
Artificial Intelligence Robo Revolution
AI drives a complete reversal in ‘who leads learning’, with virtual
Personalized Learning
tutors and mentors structuring learning paths, providing assessment
tasks, giving feedback, adjusting according to progress and
Robo Revolution organizing human tutoring when needed.GLOBAL EDUCATION. RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES
Global Scenario ‘Preferences’
#1.
EDUCATION
AS USUAL
#2. 10% 10% 12% 15% 19% 23% 15% 19%
REGIONAL
RISING
#3. 10% 21% 12% 12% 15% 12% 12%
GLOBAL
GIANTS
#4.
PEER TO 40% 21% 41% 55% 36% 32% 50% 34%
PEER
#5.
ROBO 38% 45% 33% 15% 29% 22% 23% 29%
REVOLUTIONGlobal Education. Innovation, Investment & Technology Patrick Brothers, Co-CEO HolonIQ December 2020
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