PUBLIC OPINION POLL - Maru/Blue
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PUBLIC OPINION POLL
Peter MacKay Tops Choice for Leader by Those who Would Vote for the
Conservative Party if Federal Election were Held Tomorrow (55%)—as
Well as General Canadian Population (51%) if they Could Also Choose
But Among Those who Would Vote for the Conservative Party if a Federal Election
were Held Tomorrow, O’Toole Has Momentum, Leslyn Lewis Viewed Most Favourably,
as Derek Sloan Lags All by Large Margins
Toronto, July 28, 2020—The results of a survey conducted by Maru/Blue Public Opinion show that Peter
MacKay would be the top choice (55%) to become the new Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada
(“CPC”) among those who are committed to vote for the party if a federal election were held tomorrow—
not those who are actual members of the party and official delegate voters—followed by rival candidates
Erin O’Toole (23%), Leslyn Lewis (11%), and Derek Sloan (11%).
Similar results were found in a separate poll of the Canadian public wherein Peter Mackay (51%)
received the nod for leader compared to fellow candidates Erin O’Toole (25%), Leslyn Lewis (16%) and
Derek Sloan (8%).
The poll of the committed CPC voters for the next federal election who indicated they have enough
knowledge about a candidate to have an informed opinion also yielded some dynamic tallies for two other
leadership hopefuls:
• On measuring the impressions of “momentum” for each candidate, Erin O’Toole (+15) and Leslyn Lewis
(+14) ranked much further ahead of both Peter MacKay (+3) and Derek Sloan (-2).
• On measuring of impressions of “favourability”, Leslyn Lewis (+48) outpaced Erin O’Toole (+44), Peter
MacKay (+40) and Derek Sloan (+4).
Actual accredited Conservative leadership voters have until August 21, 2020 to get their ballots in by
mail so they can be counted to choose the replacement of outgoing party leader Andrew Scheer by the
end of that month. For that process, each riding gets 100 points, and how many points a candidate
receives depends on his or her share of the vote in the riding.
A total of 1828 those who would consider voting for the Conservative Party of Canada if a federal
election were held tomorrow were surveyed between July 17 – 21, 2020 and is considered nationally
accurate within +/- 2.6 percentage points using a Bayesian Credibility Interval. While a portion of these
individuals may be official voting members/delegates in the actual leadership vote, the total is not
representative of actual accredited leadership delegate voters. There was no leadership “voter” list used
to accumulate this group of individuals—these respondents were identified from a custom survey using
the Maru/Blue online panel. A total of 1514 Canadian adults (aged 18+) were separately surveyed
between July 10 – 13, 2020, and is considered nationally accurate to within +/- 2.9 percentage points
using a Bayesian Credibility Interval. While a portion of these individuals are conservative supporters
and/or voting members in the leadership vote, the total is representative of the Canadian public.
MARU/GROUP marugroup.net
NEW YORK / CHICAGO / SAN FRANCISCO / LOS ANGELES /
LONDON / SOUTHAMPTON / EDINBURGH / BUENOS AIRES / TORONTO / VANCOUVER 1PUBLIC OPINION POLL All the results have been weighted by education, age, gender, and region to match the population according to the most recent Census data so that the sample is representative of the entire adult population of Canada. Respondents could choose between questionnaires in either English or French. Discrepancies between the reported totals and data tables are due to rounding. Excerpts may be used freely with attribution but subject to correction, including interpretation. If any correction is necessary to this report, a new version will be posted to the Maru/Blue site as soon as possible. Detailed information about Maru/Blue can be found at www.marublue.com. The Maru/Blue Public Opinion channel does not do any work for any political party. Key Findings: The choice they would make for Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada if they had a vote in the contest… If those who would vote for the Conservative Party of Canada (“CPC”) in the next federal election tomorrow had a vote to determine who would be the next leader of the CPC, of the four candidates, they would choose to do so in the following way: • MacKay 55% • O’Toole 23% • Lewis 11% • Sloan 11% If the Canadian public had a vote to determine who would be the next leader of the CPC, of the four candidates, they would choose to do so in the following way: • MacKay 51% • O’Toole 25% • Lewis 16% • Sloan 8% The momentum factor... In order to create a “momentum” rating, those who indicated that they don't know enough about a candidate to have an informed opinion were excluded from the tally for that candidate. Next, those remaining respondents were asked if their impressions of the candidate had become better, worse, or had remained the same. Then, a momentum score was determined by removing the “stayed the same” respondents and creating a net result after having subtracted the “Better” from the “Worse” responses. The results were then properly re-based to yield a final net score. MARU/GROUP marugroup.net NEW YORK / CHICAGO / SAN FRANCISCO / LOS ANGELES / LONDON / SOUTHAMPTON / EDINBURGH / BUENOS AIRES / TORONTO / VANCOUVER 2
PUBLIC OPINION POLL
Those who would currently vote for the Conservative Party of Canada (“CPC”) in the next federal
election tomorrow and know enough about a candidate to have an informed opinion were asked to
offer their impressions on the performance over the past few months of each candidate for leader of the
CPC. The following impressions were rendered on whether each had become better, worse, or stayed
the same, and the net score:
Better Same Worse Net Momentum
• O’Toole 25% 65% 10 +15
• Lewis 26% 62% 12 +14
• MacKay 18% 67% 15 +3
• Sloan 17% 64% 19 -2
Favourability…
In order to create a “favourability” rating, those who indicated that they don't know enough about a
candidate to have an informed opinion were excluded from the tally for that candidate. Next, those
remaining respondents were asked about their impressions of the candidate as to how favourably they
viewed them, choosing either “very favourable, somewhat favourable, not very favourable, or not at all
favourable”. Then, a net favourability score was determined by subtracting the unfavourable
impressions (not very/not at all) from the favourable impressions (very/somewhat). The results were then
properly re-based to yield a final net score.
Those who would currently vote for the Conservative Party of Canada (“CPC”) in the next federal
election and know enough about a candidate to have an informed opinion , provided the following
favourability assessment which then created a net score:
Favourable Unfavourable Net Favourability
• Lewis 64% 16% +48
• O’Toole 72% 28% +44
• MacKay 70% 30% +40
• Sloan 52% 48% +4
-30-
MARU/GROUP marugroup.net
NEW YORK / CHICAGO / SAN FRANCISCO / LOS ANGELES /
LONDON / SOUTHAMPTON / EDINBURGH / BUENOS AIRES / TORONTO / VANCOUVER 3PUBLIC OPINION POLL
For more information contact:
John Wright
Executive Vice President
Maru/Blue Public Opinion North America
Direct Toronto +1.416.700.4218
John.wright@Marublue.com
About Maru/Blue
www.marublue.com/public-opinion is a research channel for one of North America’s leading
premium quality data services firms. www.marublue.com provides reliable global data for
private, public, and not-for-profit sector clients. It is part of the www.marugroup.net that
operates from ten centres within four continents. We are trusted advisors, and in a world of
suspect information, we are obsessed with quality so we can deliver reliable, reproducible
results. The world is changing, and the imperative must be to #KnowEverything
Detailed Findings
1. Among those who would consider voting for the Conservative Party of Canada if a federal election
were held tomorrow, surveyed between July 17 – 21, 2020:
• if you had a vote to determine who would be the next leader of the Conservative Party of Canada,
of the four candidates, who would you choose?
Region Gender Age Income Education
College
$50- $100K HS or
Total BC AB MB/SK ON PQ ATL Male Female '18-34 '35-54 '55+PUBLIC OPINION POLL
2. A total of 1515 Canadian adults (aged 18+) were separately surveyed between July 10 – 13, 2020,
• if you had a vote to determine who would be the next leader of the Conservative Party of
Canada, of the four candidates, who would you choose?
Region Gender Age Income Education
Colleg
e/
MB/S FemalPUBLIC OPINION POLL
Region Gender Age Income Education
Colle
ge/
Erin MB/S FemalPUBLIC OPINION POLL
Region Gender Age Income Education
Colleg
$50- $100K HS or
Derek Sloan Total BC AB MB/SK ON PQ ATL Male Female '18-34 '35-54 '55+PUBLIC OPINION POLL
Region Gender Age Income Education
College
$50- $100K HS or
Erin O’Toole Total BC AB MB/SK ON PQ ATL Male Female '18-34 '35-54 '55+PUBLIC OPINION POLL
Region Gender Age Income Education
College
$50- $100K HS or
Derek Sloan Total BC AB MB/SK ON PQ ATL Male Female '18-34 '35-54 '55+You can also read
