Right-to-Work Legislation and the Manufacturing Sector

 
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CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH
M I L L E R C O L L E G E O F B U S I N E S S • B A L L S TAT E U N I V E R S I T Y

Right-to-Work Legislation
and the Manufacturing Sector
Michael J. Hicks, Ph.D. Director and Associate Professor

This study extends the analysis of the impact of right-to-work legislation
in very narrow areas—industrial composition, manufacturing income,
employment and wages in the United States.

INTRODUCTION                                               There are a great many additional issues,                   RIGHT-TO-WORK LEGISLATION
   Researchers have been long interested                   some purely economic, others beyond the                        The National Labor Relations Act of
in evaluating the role right-to-work                       traditional scope of economic analysis. This                1935 (the Wagner Act) permitted unions
(RTW) laws play in wages, employment,                      study will not address issues beyond the                    to enforce membership by all employees
firm location, industrial structure and                    empirical matters mentioned. All research                   represented by that union. Certain types of
other economic outcomes in states that                     is limited in scope, and while the issues                   workers—management, railroad, domestic
have implemented these policies. These                     we examine are important, their relative                    services and government employees—were
remain timely questions, because several                   importance cannot be determined without                     exempt from the law.[2] In 1947, the
state legislatures are currently considering               more comparative research. So, we cannot                    Taft-Hartley Act eased this restriction,
RTW legislation. This study extends the                    conclude from this work alone, the efficacy                 permitting some employees to avoid union
analysis of the impact of RTW legisla-                     of the legislation, or even whether or not                  membership and avoid paying union dues.
tion in very narrow areas—industrial                       these issues are of primary importance to                   However, the full implementation of the
composition, manufacturing income,                         the evaluation of this issue.[1]                            law required individual states to implement
employment and wage rate in the United                        We begin by briefly reviewing RTW                        legislation to this effect. This has become
States. Examining more than a half cen-                    legislation, highlighting some regions of                   known as right-to-work legislation.
tury of changes, we seek to incorporate                    particular interest. This is followed by an                    The original states who adopted RTW
significantly more available information                   explanation of the ambiguity present in                     policies were heavily concentrated in the
regarding a number of unsettled questions                  economic theory regarding the effects of                    southern and southwestern United States.
surrounding RTW laws.                                      RTW legislation. This is then placed in the                 At the time, these were places that were
   The questions we ask are not new, but                   context of the existing body of research on                 not heavily industrialized. Further, there
we focus on quantifying the changes to                     the subject. We follow this with explicit                   appeared some cultural antipathy towards
manufacturing associated with RTW laws                     economic modeling of the influence of                       the labor movement in the South (Black
in each of the 48 conterminous United                      RTW laws in the United States on the                        1989). In the Midwest, the state of Indi-
States and the District of Columbia. These                 manufacturing share of income in each                       ana passed RTW legislation in 1957 but
are among the questions facing citizens                    state’s economy, manufacturing incomes.                     rescinded private sector RTW in 1965.
and public policy makers when consid-                      We end with conclusions, recommen-                          Since the Taft-Hartley Act, there has been
ering their stance on changes to RTW                       dations for further analysis and policy                     slow adoption with 22 states currently
legislation. However, they are not the only                considerations.                                             having passed RTW legislation.
questions involving changes to RTW laws.

1. The political economy literature has also shown some interest in more fundamental issues regarding limits to the freedom of association and the specter of free riders
   enjoying the putative gains of union membership without suffering the costs (of dues).
2. Some states passed RTW laws prior to the Taft-Hartley Act.

                          CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH               1     BALL STATE UNIVERSITY – JANUARY 2012
SIDEBAR A:   Geographic Distribution of States with Established or                                        WHAT IS RIGHT TO WORK POLICY?
                                                                                                                Right to work policy is essentially the right
   Potential Right-to-Work Laws                                                                              of an employee to work for a business without
                                                                                                             being obligated to join a labor union. Arkan-
                                                                                                             sas’s state constitution offers a more technical
                                                                                                             definition:
                                              1935
                                                                                                               No person shall be denied employment
                                                                                                               because of membership in or affiliation with
                     1985                    1946                                                              or resignation from a labor union, or because
                                1963                                                                           of refusal to join or affiliate with a labor
                                                             1974                                              union; nor shall any corporation or individual
                                               1946
              1911                                                                                             or association of any kind enter into any
                       1955                                                                                    contract, written or oral, to exclude from
                                                                                           1947
                                                 1958                                                          employment members of a labor union or
                                                                                           1947                persons who refuse to join a labor union, or
                                                                             1947
                                                                                                               because of resignation from a labor union; nor
                                                      2001                             1954
                     1946                                      1944                                            shall any person against his will be compelled
                                                                                    1947                       to pay dues to any labor organization as a
                                                                             1943
                                                                      1954                                     prerequisite to or condition of employment.
                                                1993                                                           (Arkansas Constitution, Amendment 34 § 1)
                                                                    1976
                                                                                                                As of January 2012, 22 states have right-
                                                                                           1943
                                                                                                             to-work policies in place and several states are
                                                                                                             considering the introduction of RTW policies.
                                                                                                                Most right-to-work states introduced a RTW
                                                                Has established right-to-work law            policy through state legislation, but five states
                                                                                                             (Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Mississippi and
   Source: National Right to Work Legal Defense and             Considering right-to-work law                Oklahoma) have RTW statutes amended to
     Education Foundation, Inc.; and CBER research.             Has no right-to-work law                     their state constitutions.

ECONOMIC THEORY AND RIGHT-TO-                           in firm location decisions. For example,                Conversely, the convergence of state
WORK LEGISLATION                                        negotiating with unions is costly, and much          level industrial structure in the past half
   Right-to-work legislation has been                   of the cost increasing effects of unions are         century would tend to push increased lev-
hypothesized to influences firm and worker              embedded in work rules, and decreased                els of more unionized industries (primarily
behavior in ways that render aggregate the-             flexibility in hiring and discharge, not pay.        manufacturing and transportation since
oretical predictions murky. As an example,              This is especially true in those industries          mining, a heavily unionized industry is not
Reed (2003) provides an excellent review                with higher levels of human capital, such            particularly footloose) in states that had
of the complexity of economic theory. He                as government and the service sector. In             historically low levels of manufacturing.
presents differing theoretical arguments                these sectors, unions do not appear to have          This well could have occurred without any
regarding the wage effects of RTW laws.                 generated a large wage differential, so the          consideration of RTW legislation.
First, the free riding by non-union work-               concerns of business are more frequently                The benefit of theoretical results regard-
ers may erode the strength of unions to                 expressed as a concern over flexibility in           ing RTW legislation and industrial compo-
bargain, reducing the wage premium for                  work rules and hiring.                               sition is fleeting. The only sure conclusion
workers. Second, the increased require-                    For the size and composition of                   is that whatever preconceived notion an
ment for effective unions under the RTW                 industry, the theoretical explanations               individual or group brings to the policy
environment may motivate unions to                      for RTW are only modestly less murky.                discussion is likely to find supportive
demonstrate their effectiveness by securing             RTW legislation may well have been                   theory. For our purposes, it is the empirics
higher wage and benefit gains.                          influenced by initial union conditions (or           of the matter that are necessary to evaluate
   Obviously, these two plausible explana-              local preferences). Thus, strong unions in           the role of the legislation.
tions offer different predictions regarding             industrialized states may have blocked the
the effect of RTW laws on wages. A full                 legislation, while less industrialized states        EMPIRICAL FINDINGS RELEVANT TO
review of the existing theory is only of                would be more likely to endorse RTW                  THIS DISCUSSION
tangential interest to this primarily empiri-           legislation. These heavily industrialized              A large body of analysis has been per-
cal work. We note however, that wages and               states may enjoy manufacturing clusters              formed regarding the effects and efficacy
benefits are not the primary cost differential          that continued to attract new firms seek-            of right-to-work legislation. The bulk of
between union and non-unionized firms.                  ing the benefits of the cluster, and are             the analysis, especially in recent years, has
So other matters may play a bigger role                 therefore less sensitive to unionization.            been supplied by advocacy groups. The

                       CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH               2    BALL STATE UNIVERSITY – JANUARY 2012
quality of these analyses range from very                  Louisiana-Mississippi border shows stark                   the most heavily unionized private sector
fine scholarly analysis to astonishingly                   differences in manufacturing location;                     industry, manufacturing. We exclude
biased creeds. I leave these un-reviewed,                  both are RTW states, but Louisiana                         mining, as it is not typically viewed as
and instead focus on studies from within                   has suffered a long history of antipathy                   sufficiently footloose to be influenced by
the peer-reviewed literature. Here, I focus                towards business.                                          RTW laws, and we also exclude service and
on findings from a few recent studies.                        Stevans (2009) examined another                         public sector employees who are also not a
   Any analysis of the effects of RTW                      important question surrounding RTW                         footloose sector. We examine the contermi-
legislation faces considerable analytical                  legislation at the state level. This study                 nous 48 states and the District of Colum-
challenge. The first is the difficulty in dis-             introduced a method for correcting for                     bia from 1929 through 2005.
entangling RTW effects from other factors.                 a problem known as endogeneity, which                        We are attempting to estimate the
A study that examines the role of RTW                      is the possibility of reverse causation in                 incremental contribution of RTW laws on
that is absent of such issues as tax policy,               the adoption of a RTW law. Because it is                   different measures of manufacturing. To
weather and the like will be unable to tease               possible that local factors (such as strong                do this, we construct a very basic treatment
out the influence of legislative change from               unions) prevent the passage of RTW laws,                   model from which to estimate impacts of
these factors.                                             any test of RTW versus non-RTW states                      RTW legislation:

                                                                                                                        Yi,t = α + αi + β (RTWi,t) + δWYj,t
A study that examines the role of right to work that is absent of such                                                             + θγi,t-1 + εi,t
issues as tax policy, weather and the like will be unable to tease out
the influence of legislative change from these factors.                                                               ...where the dependent variable Y is the manu-
                                                                                                                      facturing share of income in state i, in year t or
                                                                                                                      income in the manufacturing sector. These are
   While it is fairly straightforward to                   is not a natural experiment, but is biased                 estimated as a function of a common and fixed
account for overall economic trends, tax                   (statistically) either for or against finding              effects intercept (α   + αi), a presence variable
policy and weather in a statistical model, it              effects. This problem has plagued RTW                      for right-to-work legislation (RTW), a first order
is far more difficult to measure the various               studies. Stevans found that there were no                  spatial contiguity element to correct for spatial
and disparate elements of public policy                    wage or employment effects of RTW legis-                   autocorrelation (δWYj,t), a first order temporal
that contribute to firm location decisions.                lation when correcting for the endogeneity                 autoregressive element (θγi,t-1), and a white noise
One important attempt at this was pro-                     problem. A concern with the Stevans study                  error term, εi,t.[3]
vided by Holmes (1998), who measured                       is the absence of strong analysis over time
firm location decision using RTW as a tool                 in the effects he measures.                                   The choice of the fixed-effects model
to measure other business friendly policies                   There are many other studies, but the                   is motivated by a fundamental critique
on firm location decision at the county                    Holmes (1998) and Stevans (2009) studies                   of earlier studies of RTW legislation that
level. This study was especially important                 provide some of the most careful treatment                 are the absence of controls for underlying
in that it included other business-friendly                of the empirical problems, while framing                   conditions both to economic structure and
policies (such as tax rates) in a carefully                the debate sufficiently for our purposes                   cultural acceptance of unionization (see
executed study of counties in different                    here. I now measure RTW and report the                     Reed 2003). The fixed-effects intercept
states, but with contiguous borders. This                  results using lessons from both authors.                   then captures time invariant characteristics
study used RTW legislation as a proxy for                                                                             of each state, and permitting parsimony
business-friendly legislation, and reports                 MODELING INDUSTRIAL COMPOSITION                            in the actual estimation (for which theory
a very large increase in manufacturing                     AND RIGHT-TO-WORK LAWS                                     is again too ambiguous to provide reli-
employment in places with a RTW law, if                       One purpose of this paper is to estimate                able guidance on specification). Thus, the
accompanied by business-friendly policies                  how the share of heavily unionized indus-                  fixed-effects offer significant benefits over
and no unusual geographic complica-                        tries may be influenced by right-to-work                   common or random effects as it controls
tions. For example, Holmes notes the                       legislation within a state. We focus on                    the time invariant characteristics of the

3. There are some considerations in the estimation process to be considered. The dependent variables in one estimation is industry share. This is problematic, as is the
   potential for non-spherical errors generated by the spatial interaction and autoregressive element of the modeling. To correct for these problems, we employ a panel cor-
   rected standard error (PCSE) estimate. This provides the efficiency enhancements not available through FGLS, while preserving consistency and unbiasedness in the esti-
   mates (see Park and Katz, 1995). Finally, the PCSE estimates are estimated with White’s (1980) heteroskedasticity invariate, variance-covariance matrix. All dependent
   variables are estimated in first-differenced logarithmic form to ensure stationarity.

                          CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH               3    BALL STATE UNIVERSITY – JANUARY 2012
TA B L E 1 :   Summary Statistics, 1929–2006 ($ Millions, Nominal)
                                    Mean                Median             Maximum              Minimum                Std. Dev.           Skewness               Kurtosis
 Manufacturing Share                       0.17                0.16                0.52                  0.02                  0.09                 0.50                  2.80
 Manufacturing Income          5,997,473            1,268,621         144,000,000                  1,236          11,883,691                        4                   27
 Right-to-Work States                      0.27                0.00                1.00                  0.00                  0.44                 1.05                  2.10
 Old South States                          0.24                0.00                1.00                  0.00                  0.43                 1.19                  2.41
 Manufacturing Income,
                               3,865,163            2,347,648         24,052,176                262,002            4,700,227                        2                     9
 1947

conterminous states and the District of                   TA B L E 2 :     Right-to-Work Effect on Manufacturing
Columbia. The data appear in Table 1.
                                                                                       Manufacturing         Manufacturing            Manufacturing          Manufacturing
   One further problem is the concern that                                            Share of Income      Aggregate Level of          Employment             Wage Rate
RTW legislation is not spontaneously vary-                                               (t-Value)          Income (t-Value)            (t-Value)              (t-Value)

ing across states. If RTW legislation in a                                              0.002018***           -0.038467***             0.99***                 0.03
                                                           C
                                                                                       (3.25)                (-9.8)                   (8.18)                  (0.73)
particular state is caused by some other fac-
                                                                                        0.000880               0.007671                0.015                   0.0078
tor, such as existing low rates of unioniza-               Right to Work
                                                                                       (1.13)                 (1.54)                  (1.27)                  (0.66)
tion or historical antipathy towards unions,               Spatial Correction
                                                                                        0.018874              -0.003496***             -0.077***           2,571.6
                                                                                       (1.13)                (-3.86)                  (-7.76)                 (0.49)
the model will be biased (in a statistical
                                                                                        -6.76E-05***          0.000723***              -0.0007***             -0.0003
sense) and not provide useful results.                     Trend
                                                                                       (-4.25)              (14.1)                    (-4.97)                (-0.057)
   To correct for this problem, we use                                                  0.057998              -0.000675                0.27***                 0.35*
                                                           Autocorrelations
a method designed to account for the                                                   (0.96)                (-0.01)                  (8.52)                  (1.69)
predisposition of a state to adopt a RTW                   Fixed Effects                 Yes                     Yes                    Yes                     Yes
law. This is known as a correction for                     Adjusted R  2
                                                                                        0.04                    0.23                   0.24                    0.00
endogeneity, which in non-technical terms                 Note: *** denotes statistical significance to the 0.01 level. * denotes statistical signifacance to the 0.10 level.
is a correction for the ‘reverse causation’                 Both models were statistically significant to the 0.01 level on the standard F-test.
that might bias the model. This correc-
tion takes the form of modifying the                      years (1947). In other words, not making                      meaningful, so RTW legislation does not
dependent variables of industry income                    this correction would bias the study.[4]                      affect the size of the manufacturing share,
shares and the level of income, accounting                                                                              inflation-adjusted wages for manufacturing
for the level of manufacturing in a state                 ESTIMATION RESULTS                                            workers, employment in manufacturing nor
immediately following the Second World                       Our estimates of the right-to-work leg-                    worker wage rates.
War and whether or not the state was part                 islation on manufacturing share of income                        This analysis suggests RTW laws do not
of the Old South. To the layperson, these                 and aggregate manufacturing income are                        matter in explaining industrial structure
might seem fanciful elements to include                   displayed in Table 2.                                         across the United States. However, this
in this type of study, but in truth, it is the               These provide empirical estimates of                       is not a resolved issue because there is not
presence of factors such as anti-union feel-              changes to industrial composition and                         purely empirical method of evaluating the
ing in the Old South, and the strength of                 manufacturing wages caused by of RTW                          endogeneity correction. Though these find-
unions in the industrial states prior to the              legislation from 1929 through 2005. Over-                     ings corroborate the most recent studies in
1950s that require this sort of analysis. So              all, the industrial composition estimates                     this area (Stevans 2009), the outcomes here
any study that attempts to draw conclu-                   offers a weak explanation for overall changes                 call for a more specific analysis of the legis-
sions regarding the effect of RTW without                 to the economy (manufacturing share).                         lation. In other words, I might be wrong.
addressing this problem should be viewed                  The income model performs fairly well in                         A series of models that captures the
with some skepticism.                                     capturing changes to inflation-adjusted total                 relationship between two variables in
   A key test of the value of these two met-              manufacturing income when accounting                          which causation can run in either direction
rics in accounting for such bias is that wages            for these state-specific conditions, surround-                have seen widespread application. These
and manufacturing share were both strongly                ing state wages, trends, persistence and the                  models—developed by 2011 Nobel Laure-
correlated with variables that accounted                  endogeneity of RTW laws. Of primarily                         ate Christopher Sims—allow two variables
for states in the Old South and the level of              interest in this research is the role RTW laws                to interact upon each other, permitting the
manufacturing in the immediate post war                   play. In no model were estimates statistically                analyst to decompose the relative effects on

4. This ‘weak instrument test’ passed for this model.

                          CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH               4     BALL STATE UNIVERSITY – JANUARY 2012
each other. To better understand the effect          FIGURE 1: First Ten Years of Accumulated Growth of Manufacturing
of this legislation on a particular state, we        Incomes and Annual Changes in Share Since the Introduction of Right-to-
isolate our analysis to those states that have       Work Law by State
changed their RTW laws over the past half
                                                     A:   Florida                                                          B:   Idaho
century. We can then confine our analysis                                                          A C C U M U L AT E D
                                                      40%                                                                   40%
to the ten states that have changed their
                                                      30%                                                                   30%
legislation since our data began.[5]
                                                      20%                                                                   20%
   To do so, we construct a model in which                                                                                                                               A C C U M U L AT E D
                                                      10%                                                                   10%
total manufacturing income (adjusted for                                                                    ANNUAL
                                                          0%                                                                    0%
inflation) is affected by the passage of a                                                                                                                                        ANNUAL
                                                     -10%                                                                  -10%
RTW law. To accomplish this we must                  -20%                                                                  -20%
translate the zero-or-one nature of the                        Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9 Y10                                        Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9 Y10
                                                               Y E A R S A F T E R I M P L E M E N TAT I O N ( 1 9 4 3 )             Y E A R S A F T E R I M P L E M E N TAT I O N ( 1 9 8 5 )
RTW law into a variable that can take any
value between 0.0 and 1.0. To do this, we            C:   Iowa                                                             D:    Kansas
adapt a technique described by Duecker                40%                                                                   40%

(2001) that replaces a qualitative variable           30%                                                                   30%
                                                                                                                                                                         A C C U M U L AT E D
(e.g. the yes/no conditions of RTW laws               20%                                                                   20%

in a state) with a forecast. This adjustment          10%                                                                   10%
                                                                                                            ANNUAL
unfortunately precludes using Indiana for                 0%                                                                    0%
                                                                                                                                                                                  ANNUAL
                                                                                                   A C C U M U L AT E D
the set of evaluated states because its fore-        -10%                                                                  -10%

cast remained constant, despite a change             -20%
                                                               Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9 Y10
                                                                                                                           -20%
                                                                                                                                     Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9 Y10
in 1957 through 1965. Also, we have to                         Y E A R S A F T E R I M P L E M E N TAT I O N ( 1 9 7 4 )             Y E A R S A F T E R I M P L E M E N TAT I O N ( 1 9 5 8 )

isolate a second relationship between these
                                                     E:   Louisiana                                                        F:   Mississippi
variables that does not change through
                                                      40%                                                                   40%
time and choose how long the effect of the                                                         A C C U M U L AT E D
                                                      30%                                                                   30%
change in a law should be modeled.[6] As                                                                                                                                 A C C U M U L AT E D
                                                      20%                                                                   20%
with the earlier model, here we estimate
                                                      10%                                                                   10%
the change to wages, not simply the level.
                                                          0%                                                                    0%
   For each of the ten selected states, we can                                                              ANNUAL                                                                ANNUAL
                                                     -10%                                                                  -10%
measure two factors. The first is the size
                                                     -20%                                                                  -20%
of the change to manufacturing incomes                         Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9 Y10                                        Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9 Y10
                                                               Y E A R S A F T E R I M P L E M E N TAT I O N ( 1 9 7 6 )             Y E A R S A F T E R I M P L E M E N TAT I O N ( 1 9 5 4 )
(total, not per capita) of the introduction
of a RTW law within a state. Second, we              G:    South Carolina                                                  H:    Texas
can estimate the share of the year-to-year            40%                                                                   40%
change in these wages attributable to the             30%                                                                   30%
                                                                                                                                                                         A C C U M U L AT E D
passage of a RTW law. The share of year-              20%                                                                   20%
to-year changes (variance) ranged from 14             10%                                                                   10%
                                                                                                            ANNUAL
percent to 46 percent in this sample of ten               0%                                                                    0%
                                                                                                                                                                                  ANNUAL
states. The impacts, both year-to-year and           -10%                                                                  -10%
                                                                                                   A C C U M U L AT E D
cumulative, appear in Figure 1.                      -20%                                                                  -20%
                                                               Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9 Y10                                        Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9 Y10
   These results paint an interesting story                    Y E A R S A F T E R I M P L E M E N TAT I O N ( 1 9 5 4 )             Y E A R S A F T E R I M P L E M E N TAT I O N ( 1 9 9 3 )
about the effect of RTW legislation within
individual states. In seven of the ten states,       I:   Utah                                                             J:   Wyoming
the cumulative 10-year impact of RTW                  40%                                                                   40%
                                                                                                   A C C U M U L AT E D                                                  A C C U M U L AT E D
                                                      30%                                                                   30%
                                                      20%                                                                   20%
                                                      10%                                                                   10%
5. We exclude Oklahoma due to its recent change in
   2001.                                                  0%                                                                    0%
                                                                                                            ANNUAL                                                                ANNUAL
6. This is known respectively as estimating a        -10%                                                                  -10%
   cointegrating equation and determining optimal    -20%                                                                  -20%
   lag lengths (for which we minimized the Akaike              Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9 Y10                                        Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9 Y10
   Information Criterion).                                     Y E A R S A F T E R I M P L E M E N TAT I O N ( 1 9 5 5 )             Y E A R S A F T E R I M P L E M E N TAT I O N ( 1 9 6 3 )

                         CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH              5      BALL STATE UNIVERSITY – JANUARY 2012
legislation was an increase in inflation-         economists are particularly suited to address.          sectors, ranging from significant
adjusted manufacturing incomes of                   This study has attempted to evalu-                    declines (greater than 10 percent
between 15 percent and 40 percent. This           ate some of these factors. This study is                over a decade) to very large gains
suggests either a growth in the number of         incomplete and does not fully evaluate all              (almost a doubling of manufactur-
manufacturing jobs in these states, higher        industries or all aspects of the workplace.             ing). These responses to the shock of
wages for existing manufacturing jobs             As such, this study cannot be interpreted               a RTW law point to highly variable
or both. This results from an increase in         alone as a call for or against passage of a             impacts of a change in legislation.
manufacturing jobs, or wages, or poten-           RTW law in Indiana. However, we can                     One reasonable interpretation is
tially both. Interestingly, in all but one        draw some conclusions from our reading                  that other factors matter more than
state, Wyoming, the impact in the first year      of existing studies and the new analysis                RTW in determining the size of the
was slightly negative, perhaps as evidence        presented here.                                         manufacturing industry in a state.
that poor economic times precipitated the           Among these findings are:                          • Overall, based on the experience in
legislative change. In Idaho, the cumulative         • The impact of right-to-work legisla-              other states, right-to-work legisla-
effect over 10 years was an almost 8 per-              tion is difficult to disentangle from             tion is not likely to have an effect
cent increase in manufacturing incomes.                other business friendly policies.                 on the manufacturing industry in
However, in Iowa and South Carolina we                 However, the more business-                       Indiana.
find that manufacturing income declined                friendly a state is at any given time,
over the 10-year period following intro-               the more muted the enactment of a             REFERENCES
duction of the RTW legislation. These                  RTW law is likely to be.                      Black, Earl and Merle Black (1989). Politics
findings mimic those of Holmes (1998),                                                                 and Society in the South. Boston: Harvard
who finds that while RTW as a proxy for              • The presence or absence of right-to-
                                                                                                       University Press.
business friendly policies boosts manu-                work legislation in a state is not a
                                                       natural experiment, so any analysis           Reed, W. Robert (2003). How Right to Work
facturing share of an economy, but that                                                                Laws Affect Wages. Journal of Labor Research,
important geographic idiosyncrasies exist.             that fails to attempt to control
                                                                                                       24(4): 1-18.
                                                       for this is inherently flawed. This
                                                       includes simple comparisons of                Holmes, Thomas J. (1996). The Effect of State
SUMMARY
                                                       RTW states with non-RTW states                 Policies on the Location of Industry: Evi-
   Right-to-work legislation is a politically                                                         dence from State Borders. Journal of Political
tactile subject that has far reaching consid-          on any issue.
                                                                                                      Economy, 106(4): 667-704.
erations and motivations. We acknowledge             • Our estimates of the impact of
                                                                                                     National Right to Work Legal Defense and
this and admit the facility of economic                right-to-work laws on manufactur-
                                                                                                       Education Foundation, Inc. (2010). Right to
analysis to speak to these matters is limited.         ing, which accounted for factors
                                                                                                       Work States. Online: http://www.nrtw.org.
However, economic considerations in terms              that would lead to changes in leg-
                                                                                                     Stevans, Lonnie K. (2009). The Effect of
of the manufacturing share of the economy              islation isolated no effect of RTW
                                                                                                        Endogenous Right-to-Work Laws on
(a proxy for more manufacturing rather                 legislation.
                                                                                                        Business and Economic Conditions in the
than less) and the growth of the industry            • States that changed their right-to-              United States: A Multivariate Approach. The
in an absolute manner (total manufactur-               work laws experienced significant                Review of Law and Economics, 5(1): 595-614.
ing incomes), manufacturing employment                 variation in their manufacturing
and manufacturing wages are matters that

BALL STATE CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH

                                       Center for Business and Economic Research
                                       Miller College of Business, Ball State University
                                       Whitinger Business Building, room 149
                                       2000 W. University Ave. • Muncie, IN 47306

                                       Phone: 765-285-5926 • Email: cber@bsu.edu                              www.bsu.edu/cber

                      CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH         6   BALL STATE UNIVERSITY – JANUARY 2012
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