Week of Trump: Chaos, stunts, danger - IN.gov
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V23, N9 Tuesday, Oct. 10, 2017
Week of Trump: Chaos, stunts, danger
Cascading controversy
becomes routine as
Chairman Corker sets
off World War III alarm
By BRIAN A. HOWEY
NASHVILLE, Ind. – President
Trump has been in office for a little
more than nine months now. It’s been President Trump ‘having fun’
fascinating, exhausting, depressing throwing paper towels to
and exhilarating. The incidents and Puerto Ricans a week ago.
pronouncements cascade in the 24/7 Vice President Pence and
news cycles, punctuated by bizarre Karen during the National
tweets and weird optics. An outrage on Anthem at the Colts game,
Sunday is almost forgotten by Friday. which he would leave early.
It comes as a Morning Consult Sen. John Barrasso, Nebraska Sen. Deb Fischer and Utah
Poll shows Trump’s approve/disapprove in Indiana has Sen. Orrin Hatch, joining the “revolution” list that includes
declined from 55.3/33% in January to 49.8/44.9% in late Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake, Mississippi Sen. Roger Wicker and
September. Nevada Sen. Dean Heller.
He has called the White House a “dump,” castigat- On Sunday, The Trump drama reached a new
ed U.S. Sen. John McCain as he battles with brain cancer. threshold, both in Washington and Indianapolis. U.S. Sen.
The Trump/Pence political wing is planning a GOP “purge,” Bob Corker said the president’s
“reality show” is “on a path
while key Trump ally Steve Bannon has expanded his 2018
Continued on page 3
list of targeted Republican senators to include Wyoming
WSJ Boilers up
By MARK SCHOEFF JR.
WASHINGTON – The Wall Street Journal recently
ranked Purdue University as the fifth-best public school in
the nation and the 43rd overall. That’s heady recognition
but not enough to attract much attention from Hoosier
politicians. In the political world, “I will always be a Colt.”
there are plenty of volatile issues
for members of Congress to navi-
- Former Indianapolis Colt
gate. They step gingerly into the QB Peyton Manning after
fray, making sure to emphasize
the message of the day that will his statue was unveiled
be most helpful to them.
That’s what makes some-
Saturday at Lucas Oil
thing like Purdue’s ranking an in- Stadium. Manning will likely
viting respite. To use an analogy
based on Indiana’s favorite sport,
go into the NFL Hall of Fame
it’s a layup for a lawmaker who as a Colt.
wants to promote good news
Page 2
about the state. Why not celebrate my life outside of Indiana – 25 years
Purdue’s once again placing highly in in Washington, D.C., and almost
the Journal’s ratings? But only one one year, just after graduating from
member of the Indiana congressional Purdue, in New York City – than in
delegation said anything. Rep. Jim Indiana, I have a new perspective on
Banks, R-3rd CD, tweeted: “Not sur- the Purdue-IU rivalry. In the state,
prised that Purdue is thriving with @ the Bloomington school dominates.
purduemitch at the helm.” But once you cross the border, Purdue
Indeed, the WSJ’s ranking becomes the better known of the two.
is another example of how Purdue This essay is not meant as a
Howey Politics Indiana is advancing since Daniels took over criticism of IU. I wish IU well academi-
WWHowey Media, LLC 405 as president nearly five years ago. cally. I want IU professors to discover
Massachusetts Ave., Suite One thing Daniels hasn’t been able cures for diseases and win Nobel
300 Indianapolis, IN 46204 to change, however, is the fact that Prizes. I want IU grads to get great
Purdue continues to be overshadowed jobs and become leaders in their
www.howeypolitics.com by Indiana University when it comes fields. Each of those IU victories is
to adoration from Indiana politerati, good for the state.
Brian A. Howey, Publisher despite the fact that Daniels himself When it comes to sports, I
Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington came to Purdue from the top of the follow the philosophy on the popular
Jack E. Howey, Editor Hoosier political mountain following t-shirt: My two favorite teams are
his two terms as governor. Purdue and whoever is playing IU.
Mary Lou Howey, Editor At this point, I have to make a It’s fun to mix it up with Hoosier fans
Mark Curry, photography full disclosure: I’m
a Purdue partisan.
Subscriptions I’m a proud alum
and an annual
HPI, HPI Daily Wire $599 donor. I have been
HPI Weekly, $350 a loyal Boilermaker
Ray Volpe, Account Manager fan since elemen-
317.602.3620 tary school, when
email: HoweyInfo@gmail.com my sister was earn-
ing her pharmacy
degree at Purdue.
Contact HPI That means that
bhowey2@gmail.com I’ve now spent
decades in the Pur-
Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 due minority. We’re
Washington: 202.256.5822 outnumbered by
Business Office: 317.602.3620 the Indiana parti-
sans – a combina-
© 2017, Howey Politics tion of alums and
other IU backers,
Indiana. All rights reserved. many of whom
Photocopying, Internet forward- joined the ranks
ing, faxing or reproducing in when Bobby Knight
any form, whole or part, is a worship was at its zenith. about what occurs on athletic courts
violation of federal law without But the Knight situation is and fields. In this arena, though, we
instructive. Yes, he won three national again see a political tilt toward IU. For
permission from the publisher. championships, but former Purdue instance, when Purdue made it to the
Coach Gene Keady had a winning Sweet 16 last year, the achievement
record against him and achieved great was mostly ignored by Hoosier pols.
success without the controversy that If – okay, when – IU basketball makes
Knight foisted on IU. That’s kind of the it back to that level, we won’t hear the
way it goes with Purdue. The school end of it from the state’s politicians.
consistently excels, but often does so There will probably be daily tweets
under the radar, at least in Indiana. during the NCAA tournament wishing
Now that I’ve lived more of IU good luck.
Page 3
The Wall Street Journal ranking is a more public school in the Top 100. “These institutions proved
serious a matter deserving the attention of Hoosier politi- they could offer a low-cost option, often to a more diverse
cians. It’s true that rankings can be disputed, especially student body, and provide comparable outcomes to the
by schools at the bottom of the lists. The Journal survey private schools that dominate the top of the charts,” WSJ
is different from most. Its assessment is based on out- reporter Melissa Korn wrote in a story about the state
comes (graduates’ salaries and debt loads), resources schools in the rankings.
(the amount schools spend on “instruction and academic Next year, I hope IU can join Purdue near the
services”), engagement (students’ interactions with faculty top of the WSJ state-school list, perhaps Purdue at three
and other students) and environment (the diversity of the and IU at five. Maybe then all Indiana politicians will take
campus community). note. v
Out of more than 1,000 universities in the survey,
Purdue placed 43rd overall and fifth among state schools. Schoeff is HPI’s Washington correspondent.
It tied for the best student-faculty ratio (12:1) of any
TrumpWeek, from page 1 the Colts game where Peyton Manning was honored after
a number of San Francisco 49ers took a knee during the
to World War III” after the two traded insults. It’s “like National Anthem, which was completely predictable. It
he’s doing ‘The Apprentice’ or something,” Corker said. “He cost taxpayers about $250,000.
concerns me. He would have to concern anyone who cares We entered this particular week after the resigna-
about our nation.” tion of Health and Human Services Sec. Tom Price, who
Corker told the New York Times’s Jonathan Martin: sparked Trump’s ire on two fronts, his use of military
“Look, except for a few people, the vast majority of our jets and his failure to get the Obamacare repeal/replace
caucus understands what we’re dealing with here. If you passed in the Senate. But that Friday story faded by
write that, I’m sure there will be some that will come Sunday with President Trump’s tweets about NFL players
to you and say, ‘No, no, no. I don’t believe that.’ But of kneeling during the National Anthem. It is a Trump tactic:
course they understand the volatility that we’re dealing When the news gets bad, create a controversy elsewhere.
with, and the tremendous amount of work that it takes by Here is a glimpse of the Trump phenomena in the
people around him to keep him in the middle of the road.” past week.
Asked about Corker’s quotes, the office of U.S.
Sen. Todd Young did not respond to HPI’s request for com- Oct. 2: The ‘crazy guy’ and a coupla Koreas
ment. Most other GOP senators were also on mute. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said the U.S. is
Axios’ Mike Allen reported today: “A Republican having “direct contact” with North Korea amid the height-
close to the White House told me: ‘These comments now ening tensions between the two nuclear powers. “We are
shape the criticism of the President going forward. Corker’s probing, so stay tuned,” he said. “We ask, ‘Would you like
comments will be the catalyst for all the doubts about to talk?’ We have lines of communications to Pyongyang.
Trump’s fitness ... [H]e has sown the strands of doubt We’re not in a dark situation, a blackout.” But then Presi-
about Trump into a vivid tapestry.’” dent Trump tweeted, “I told Rex Tillerson, our wonderful
Allen also wrote this about Chief of Staff John Kel- Secretary of State, that he is wasting his time trying to ne-
ly: “You cringe and sometime rage when you see the nasty gotiate with Little Rocket Man. Save your energy Rex, we’ll
tweets, the childish taunts, the wild im- do what has to be done!”
provisation. You start watching Fox just Axios reported
to see what he sees, and read Breitbart on a conversation that
for a glimpse of the world through the included trade negotiator
president’s eyes. You plot with Tillerson Todd Lighthizer, Mattis, Ag-
and SecDef Mattis and National Security riculture Secretary Perdue,
Adviser McMaster, and find comfort and and Tillerson. At issue was
camaraderie in your pact to save the whether the U.S. would
world from an impulsive president. It’s withdraw from the South
a worthy war – but often one you fear Korean trade deal. “You’ve
you are losing. No wonder you’ve been got 30 days, and if you
caught on camera with an exasperated don’t get concessions then
face pressed firmly against your hand.” Secretary of State Rex Tillerson with Vice President Mike I’m pulling out,” Trump told
And in Indianapolis, Trump Pence. There is friction between the Tillerson and Pence Lighthizer. “Ok, well, I’ll tell
ordered Vice President Pence to leave staffs. the Koreans they’ve got 30
Page 4
days,” Lighthizer replied. “No, no, no,” Oct. 4: Comfort and purge
Trump interjected. “That’s not how you President Trump traveled to Puerto Rico
negotiate. You don’t tell them they’ve got in a visit Politico noted that had a “jarring tone.”
30 days. You tell them, ‘This guy’s so cra- Trump said at one point, “I hate to tell you,
zy he could pull out any minute.’ That’s Puerto Rico, but you’ve thrown our budget a little
what you tell them: Any minute,” Trump out of whack because we’ve spent a lot of money
continued. “And by the way, I might. You on Puerto Rico.” Trump ignored the mayor of
guys all need to know I might. You don’t San Juan who had criticized him and the FEMA
tell them 30 days. If they take 30 days response, and praised Gov. Ricard Rosselló, who
they’ll stretch this out. You tell them if Trump said had not criticized him. At a press
they don’t give the concessions now, this event, he told one storm victim to “have a nice
crazy guy will pull out of the deal.” time,” and was seen tossing rolls of paper towels
Finally, there was Trump’s tweet in the crowd as if he was shooting basketballs.
on the Puerto Rican hurricane disaster Nick Ayres, Vice President Trump, speaking to the Trinity Broad-
and the NFL protests. “Such poor leader- Pence’s chief of staff, is urging casting Network’s Mike Huckabee, explained,
ship ability by the mayor of San Juan, a “purge” of Republican sena- “I mean, one example, they had these beauti-
and others in Puerto Rico, who are not ful soft towels, very good towels, and I came in
able to get their workers to help,” Trump tweeted. “They and there was a crowd of a lot of people and they were
want everything to be done for them when it should be a screaming and they were loving everything. I was having
community effort.” And the NFL National Anthem protests, fun, they were having fun, they said ‘throw them to me,
which brought this tweet: “Very important that NFL play- throw them to me, Mr. President,’ and so I’m doing some
ers STAND tomorrow, and always, for the playing of our of them, so the next day they said, ‘Oh it was so disre-
National Anthem. Respect our Flag and our Country!” spectful to the people.’ It was just a made-up thing and
also when they had, when I walked in the cheering was
Oct. 3: Las Vegas atrocity incredible.” Trump said the cheering from the crowd was
President Trump reacted to the Las Vegas atrocity “deafening” but called negative reports of his trip “horrible
that killed 59 people and wounded more than 500, saying unfair publicity.”
in a somber appearance, “Our unity cannot be shattered Nick Ayres, Vice President Pence’s chief of staff,
by evil, our bonds cannot be broken by violence. We pray threatened Republicans with a purge, telling a Republi-
for the day when evil is banished, and the innocent are can National Committee donor session, “Just imagine the
safe from hatred and from fear.” He condemned the shoot- possibilities of what can happen if our entire party unifies
ing as an “act of pure evil.” behind him? If – and this sounds crass – we can purge the
The White House said it was “not the time” to de- handful of people who continue to work to defeat him. I’m
bate gun violence reforms. The following day Trump hinted not speaking on behalf of the president or vice president
that he might entertain some gun reforms. when I say this, but if I were you, I would not only stop
donating, I would form a coalition of all the other major
donors, and just say two things: We’re definitely not giv-
Page 5
ing to you, No. 1. And No. 2, if you don’t have this done Tillerson in a meeting whether Haley, who is seen as a
by Dec. 31, we’re going out, we’re recruiting opponents, possible successor to Tillerson, is helpful or harmful to the
we’re maxing out to their campaigns, and we’re funding administration.
super PACs to defeat all of you.” Trump ordered CMS Director Seema Verma to
reject Iowa’s Obamacare waiver request. The Washing-
Oct. 5: Vegas comfort, NBC and Tillerson ton Post reported Iowa’s insurance commissioner warned
This day began with an NBC News report that Vice that, without the waiver, premiums could rise as much as
President Pence had to talk Tillerson out of resigning last 57% and many people might not have insurance plans to
summer. Tillerson was also quoted as calling Trump a “f--- choose from. And we learned that Kelly’s smartphone was
ing moron” during a meeting with national security person- hacked.
nel last weekend. Tillerson called a hasty presser, said, “I
have never considered leaving this post.” But he would not Oct. 7: Trump tweets Korea
disclaim the “moron” quote, calling it “petty nonsense.” President Trump was back on Twitter Saturday
Trump was reportedly incensed that Tillerson did not deny morning, saying that North Korea only makes “fools” of
the moron quote. U.S. negotiators, and “only one thing will work,” fueling
Trump met with first responders and Las Vegas speculation as to whether the president means military
shooting victims, saying, “We’re going to pay our respects action.
and to see the police who have done really a fantastic job
in a very short time. And yeah they’re learning a lot more. Oct. 8: Corker insults, Pence and NFL
And that’ll be announced at the appropriate time. It’s a Sunday began with President Trump trading in-
very, very sad day for me, personally.” sults with Trump tweeting, “Senator Bob Corker ‘begged’
Sen. Corker, an early Senate backer of Trump’s me to endorse him for reelection in Tennessee. I said ‘NO’
presidential campaign, suggested that Gens. John Kelly and he dropped out (said he could not win without ... my
and James Mattis, as well as Tillerson, are the “people that endorsement). He also wanted to be secretary of state,
help separate our country from chaos. “(Mattis, Kelly and I said ‘NO THANKS.’ He is also largely responsible for the
Tillerson) work very well together to make sure the poli- horrendous Iran Deal!” Corker responded, “It’s a shame
cies we put forth around the world are sound and coher- the White House has become an adult day care center.
ent. There are other people within the administration that Someone obviously missed their shift this morning.”
don’t. I hope they stay because they’re valuable to the This tweet was filled with lies. Corker told
national security of our nation.” MSNBC’s Morning Joe he turned down the secretary of
state job fearing he wouldn’t jell with the non-conforming
Oct. 6: White House fuming Trump. And there were reports that Trump asked Corker
President Trump appeared at a photo op with to seek reelection.
military leaders and said, “You guys know what this repre- Corker then responded with his “World War III”
sents? Maybe it’s the calm before the storm. Could be the quotes.
calm, the calm before the storm.” A reporter asked, ”What Former White House chief strategist Steve Ban-
storm, Mr. President?” ISIS? North Korea? Iran? “You’ll find non said Monday that Corker should “resign immediately”
out,” the president said. if the Tennessee Republican has “any honor or decency.
Trump announced he would decertify the Iran “Corker, McConnell and the entire establishment, global-
deal, reportedly against the wishes of his national security ist clique have to go,” Bannon told Sean Hannity on Fox
team. News Monday night.
Reports came to light of Trump and Pence “fum- The Wall Street Journal editorialized
ing” over the Tillerson/moron today: “Mr. Corker was expressing views
story. Chief of Staff Kelly that are widely held on Capitol Hill and even
scrapped plans to travel to within the Trump Administration. These men
Vegas with Trump. And Pence and women support the President’s policies,
was “incensed” upon learn- or at least most of them, and they remain
ing from the NBC report that in their jobs for the good of the cause and
Tillerson’s top spokesman country. What they fear, and want to con-
had said he once privately tain, are the President’s lack of discipline,
questioned the value of Nikki short fuse, narcissism and habit of treating
Haley, the U.S. ambassador to even foreign heads of state as if they are
the United Nations. Officials Rosie O’Donnell. In other words, Mr. Corker
said the spokesman, R.C. was trying to be helpful by telling the truth.”
Hammond, fabricated an an- Candidate Trump with U.S. Sen. Bob Corker And the Washington Post reported today:
ecdote that Pence had asked during the 2016 campaign. Corker was an early “After a caustic volley of Twitter insults
Senate supporter of Trump and was considered
Page 6
between Trump and Corker ... few GOP lead- Trump later tweeted, “I asked @VP Pence
ers came to the president’s defense Monday — to leave stadium if any players kneeled,”
though few sided openly with Corker, either. The Trump posted on Twitter. “I am proud of him
most vocal Trump defender was the one under and @SecondLady Karen.” NBC’s Vaughn Hill-
the president’s employ, Vice President Pence. yard reported from Indianapolis that the media
Trump in recent days has shown flashes of fury pool was kept in vans ahead of the game in-
and left his aides, including White House chief stead of being led inside with Pence. A staffer
of staff John F. Kelly, scrambling to manage his told the pool there was a chance Pence might
outbursts.” depart early, but did not mention how early.
Pence’s office blasted out a blanket The move was criticized with the IndyS-
response under the vice president’s name ad- tar’s Tim Swarens calling it a “premeditated
dressing “criticisms of the president,” saying, “That’s what political stunt” and “conduct unbecoming a true leader.”
American leadership on the world stage looks like and no WTHR-TV’s Bob Kravitz added, “This was a cynical and
amount of criticism at home can diminish those results.” appalling exercise in political theater, and re-ignited the
Pence returned to Indianapolis to watch the Colts Trump Administration’s war against free speech and
retire Peyton Manning’s number, then abruptly left when political dissent. The fact that he chose this weekend, a
some of the San Francisco 49ers (but no Colts) kneeled weekend when the Colts were unveiling Manning’s statue,
during the National Anthem. “I left today’s Colts game be- retiring his jersey number and adding him to the Ring of
cause President Trump and I will not dignify any event that Honor, makes it all the more tone deaf and inappropriate.”
disrespects our soldiers, our Flag, or our National Anthem. Sports Illustrated’s Peter King said the move cast a “gigan-
At any time when so many Americans are inspiring our na- tic shadow” over the Manning events.
tion with their courage, resolve, and resilience, now, more This was one week in the Trump presidency. There
than ever, we should rally around our Flag and everything is nothing normal about any aspect of what we’re watch-
that unites us,” Pence said. “While everyone is entitled to ing. And the stakes are high. Trump and North Korea’s Kim
their own opinions, I don’t think it’s too much to ask NFL Jong Un are trading insults as they sit on nuclear weapon
players to respect the Flag and our National Anthem. I stockpiles. v
stand with President Trump, I stand with our soldiers, and
I will always stand for our Flag and our National Anthem.”
Page 7
Team Pence brews Graham/Cassidy had a 20% approval in a Fox News Poll
was beside the point. The manta in the White House starts
a GOP civil war
with the phrase, “How dare they?”
And now the knives are out for Republicans Heller,
Arizona’s Jeff Flake, Mississippi’s Roger Wicker, and Ten-
By BRIAN A. HOWEY nessee’s Bob Corker, until he decided not to seek reelec-
ANN ARBOR, Mich. – Take President Reagan’s tion. McConnell and Speaker Paul Ryan have become the
“11th Commandment” (Thou shalt not criticize another GOP version of Nancy Pelosi.
Republican) and shove it. The Big Tent GOP is following A couple of weeks after former Trump se-
Ringling Brothers into oblivion. There is a civil war brewing nior adviser Steve Bannon headed back to Breitbart and
in the Republican Party and the revolt is fomenting … in launched a “revolution” aimed at Ryan and McConnell,
the warrens of Vice President Mike Pence. Ayres ended up addressing a Republican National Com-
Ever since that early sum- mittee and queued up a corresponding insurrection. In an
mer day in 2015 when Donald audio tape obtained by Politico, the Pence chief of staff
Trump descended on an esca- said, “Just imagine the possibilities of what can happen
lator to declare his bid for the if our entire party unifies behind him?” The “him” is, of
presidency, the Republican Party course, President Trump. “If – and this sounds crass – we
has been torn. Trump won a can purge the handful of people who continue to work to
hostile takeover nomination in defeat him.”
the Indiana presidential primary An attendee asked how pressure could be applied
in May 2016, with only Rex Early on Ryan and McConnell. “I’m not speaking on behalf of the
and Sullivan County Chairman president or vice president when I say this,” Ayres re-
Bill Springer as his conspicuous sponded, “but if I were you, I would not only stop donat-
Hoosier advocates. When Pence ing, I would form a coalition of all the other major donors,
joined the ticket, Hoosiers came and just say two things: ‘We’re definitely not giving to you,
around. No. 1. And No. 2, if you don’t have this done by Dec. 31,
What we’ve witnessed since has been an unprec- we’re going out, we’re recruiting opponents, we’re maxing
edented Kabuki theater with the GOP presidential nominee out to their campaigns, and we’re funding super PACs to
bragging about the size of various body parts, the ability defeat all of you.’”
of the famous to grope female anatomy, and even a hint Then Ayres said this: “Because, look, if we’re go-
of martial law when Trump accepted the GOP nomination ing to be in the minority again, we might as well have a
in Cleveland by saying, “The crime and violence that today minority who are with us as opposed to the minority who
afflicts our nation will soon come to an end. Beginning on helped us become a minority.”
January 20, 2017, safety will be restored. I alone can fix So team Pence is manning the circular firing
it.” While that message rings hollow on the Las Vegas strip squad. Kevin D. Williamson, writing in the conservative Na-
this week, the Trump/Pence brain trust has more impor- tional Review, observes: “Republicans have not rallied
tant tasks at hand, which is to isolate and punish Republi- behind the Trump agenda because there isn’t anything to
cans who don’t get with the program. rally behind. The Trump movement is a one part personal-
When Pence was governor, he got to know Nick ity cult and one part group-therapy session. It isn’t politics
Ayres, a 24-year-old wunderkind who became executive – it’s a nervous breakdown inside the Republican party.”
director of the Republican Governors’ Association. Along It comes as data brews of a Grand Old Debacle
with Marty Obst, a former driver when Jim Kittle was next year. A Quinnipiac Poll puts congressional approval at
Indiana GOP chairman who then headed up the Pence era 15%, with some 61% of Republicans disapproving. Quin-
foodchain, the two accompanied the veep to Washington. nipiac found that 56% of Americans don’t believe Trump is
Ayres and Obst formed the American First “fit to serve as president.” A CNN poll puts approval of the
Policies PAC which has become the enforcer of Trumpian Republican Party at 29%, down 13 points from March.
policy, no matter how misguided it is. Trump’s tax reform This is all reflected in the emerging Indiana
plan adds $10 trillion to the budget deficits in the coming Republican U.S. Senate race where Rep. Todd Rokita
decade? Deficits schmeficits! has targeted Republican “elites” and Rep. Luke Messer’s
Last summer, when vulnerable Nevada Sen. Dean campaign manager Chasen Bullock acknowledges, “We’re
Heller wavered on a deeply flawed Senate health repeal/ running against the Senate.”
replace, American First aimed $1 million of TV ads against Somewhere amongst the gathering flotsam and
the Republican with all the subtlety of Tony Soprano. Al- jetsam is a smiling Sen. Joe Donnelly, who won that office
lies of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell termed during the last circular firing that deposed Sen. Richard
the move “beyond stupid,” the ads were pulled, and that Lugar.
health bill went down in flames. Ditto for Graham/Cassidy. The Republican Party is a house divided, and you
Trump/Pence world seethed in indignation. The fact that know what ol’ Honest Abe said about that. v
Page 8
Morales posts $207K the border from terrorists and the cartels.” Thus, Morales
supports President Trump’s southern border wall. On the
in 4th CD GOP race
economy, he will focus on his Pence era job creation. “I
speak six languages and I’ve been to 100 countries,” Mo-
rales said. “I understand business.” He points to his own
By BRIAN A. HOWEY business of leasing school buses to school corporations.
INDIANAPOLIS – Diego Morales prefers to do He is supportive of President Trump’s tax reform
things the “right way.” He’s been cris-crossing the 4th CD plan, adding, “We must lower our taxes and get the gov-
over the past several months, positioning himself to win an ernment out of the way of small businesses. I want less
open seat Republican nomination. government.”
He immigrated to the U.S. On DACA, Morales explained, “I want to be very
from Guatemala when he was a compassionate, but I will always believe in the rule of
senior in high school, speaking no law. I want to begin a dialogue. I will work to fix a broken
English. “I believe in the rule of system.
law,” Morales explained. “I want As for veterans, he wants to broaden health care
to be very compassionate, which access beyond the Veterans Administration, giving them a
is why I am sharing my own card to gain care across the health system. “We need to
story. I came to American the right way, the legal way. I be more efficient,” he said. And on the related opioid crisis,
am truly living the American dream.” Morales emphasized “edu-
He was graduated from Silver cation” and role models. “I
Creek HS, attained his undergraduate want to join the debate. I will
degree from Indiana University, got an listen to my constituents,” he
MBA at Purdue, campaigned and joined said.
the staff of U.S. Rep. Mike Sodrel, Morales also emphasized
served in the U.S. Army, and ended up that as a resident of Plain-
on the staffs of Lt. Gov. Becky Skillman field, he is the only declared
and Gov. Mike Pence. He worked on candidate who lives in the
international issues with Pence, telling 4th CD. Braun lives just
HPI he reported directly to the gover- outside the district in Zions-
nor and Chief of Staff Jim Atterholt. “I ville. Fourth CD Republican
worked with counsel generals, ambas- Chairman Mike O’Brien told
sadors and ministers to show them WIBC State Rep. Jim Baird is
Hoosier hospitality,” he said, noting that the jobless rate considering the race, but says for a lot of state legislators,
under Pence declined from 8.4% to 4% when he left office normally a prime candidate pool for congressional seats,
in January. “It was my job to put Indiana on the map.” the timing is wrong.
When U.S. Rep. Todd Rokita opted for the U.S. Sources tell HPI that Braun’s early strategy is to
Senate race, Morales was the first to enter and will face get as many legislators in the district to endorse him.
former Workforce Development Director Steve Braun in the
Republican primary. If there’s a surprise in Indiana politics U.S. Senate
this year, it’s that there are only two Republicans in the
race, though Morales expects one or two others to enter. It Braun reports $1 million on first FEC report
is a credible candidacy, with Morales posting $207,000 on State Rep. Mike Braun reported $1 million on the
his third quarter FEC report. third quarter FEC report, including $800,000 he loaned
“I have raised money with Hoosiers, from Hoo- to the campaign. “That was done in a month and a half,”
siers,” he said. “Most of my support comes from Indiana. said Braun. “It exceeded my expectations.” U.S. Reps.
He says he developed a statewide network with Sodrel, Luke Messer and Todd Rokita reported $2 million at the
Skillman and Pence. He’s augmented it with “hard work,” second quarter and have yet to release their totals. “One
saying that he visited all 16 county fairs in the 4th CD, reason people are listening to me is the tone of the race,
along with dozens of parades, festivals and barbecues. as exhibited by the two of them – and I think especially
“If you looked at this race this summer, you saw only one Todd Rokita, who I think has been throwing most of the
candidate. I am the only candidate who did 16 county punches,” Braun told the Associated Press. “I think that
fairs. We will shock some people with our third quarter general disappointment with the way discourse unfurls is
report. It will exceed expectations. out there.”
He is basing his candidacy on three basic issues:
National security, the economy and veterans’ affairs. Messer backs Pence on anthem
On the first, he said, “We have to protect our Messer released a fundraising appeal on Monday,
country and every single American. We need to protect
Page 9
saying he backs Vice President Pence’s decision to leave The strategy seemed to work. In June, just a
the Colts/49ters game early. “The media keeps saying that few months after receiving help from Messer, Mutual First
football players are right to kneel for our National An- received permission from the Federal Reserve to offer
them,” he said. “But the media forgets that the American security control audit services.
people are right to be outraged by this blatant disrespect Soon thereafter, a D.C.-based watchdog group
for the greatest and freeest country in history. The vice flagged Messer’s intervention as suspicious. The organiza-
president puts it best: “While everyone is entitled to their tion says that right after Messer wrote a letter on behalf of
own opinions, I don’t think it’s too much to ask NFL play- Cook and his bank, the congressman accepted a campaign
ers to respect the flag and our National Anthem. I stand contribution from the same man who sought his help.
with President Trump, I stand with our soldiers, and I will “This contribution is very suspicious and merits further
always stand for our Flag and our National Anthem.” inquiry,” said American Oversight senior advisor Melanie
Sloan, who wrote the complaint.
Complaint filed against Messer
A campaign contribution to Rep. Messer is the Koch Bros attack Donnelly
focus of a federal ethics complaint filed this week on Americans for Prosperity, part of the Koch Broth-
Capitol Hill, according to WTHR-TV investigative reporter ers conservative political network, is announcing a $4.5
Bob Segall. The allegation against Messer dates to March, million ad buy today to pressure three Democratic sena-
when the chief financial officer of Mutual Bank visited the tors to support the GOP tax cuts plan (Lawler, Axios). The
congressman’s Capitol Hill office to seek assistance. Mutual senators: McCaskill (MO), Baldwin (WI) and Donnelly (IN).
Bank CFO Chris Cook was frustrated with federal regula- The tax push won’t lack for funding; AFP says this is just
tors. For years, he had worked with the Federal Reserve the first wave of ads. And with Republicans like Bob Corker
Bank in an effort to establish a cyber security subsidiary and Rand Paul sending warning signs about their posi-
within his bank. Federal Reserve officials in Chicago had tions on the plan, conservatives are hoping to get a couple
originally suggested they approved of the Muncie-based of Democrats on board. Maureen Groppe of the IndyStar
Mutual First Financial unit offering those services to its reported this morning that AFP is spending $1.9 million to
customers, then the regulators suddenly changed their convince Donnelly to support an overhaul of the federal
minds. tax code.
“We reviewed the regulations and believed we
should be able to do this, and when they said we could, Messer, Rokita vote similar on abortion
we started down Abortion rights opponents might have to consider
that road,” Cook other issues when assessing two prominent candidates
told WTHR. “Later for the Republican nomination for a U.S. Senate seat from
they told us they Indiana (Francisco, Fort Wayne Journal Gazette). U.S.
weren’t sure we Reps. Luke Messer and Todd Rokita have identical voting
should be doing records on federal legislation scored by the National Right
this, so we asked to Life Committee, which seeks to have abortions out-
what we could do lawed. Messer, R-6th, and Rokita, R-4th, have sided with
next, and they basi- the committee’s position on all 25 scored votes they have
cally said there’s nothing you can do. I didn’t take that for cast since 2013, when Messer took office. Rokita aligned
an answer, so that’s the time I gathered my documenta- with the committee’s position on all 10 scored votes he
tion and I met with [elected officials] to present the facts cast during his first term, in 2011-12.
to see if, on our behalf, they’d talk to someone at the
Federal Reserve. That seemed like our only outlet at that Congress
point.”
Cook said he found a receptive audience in 6th CD: LaMar drops out, citing Pence
Messer’s Washington office on March 8 as he described Greg Pence has put off his 6th CD candidacy until
the hurdles he faced with federal banking regulators. He U.S. Rep. Luke Messer’s third quarter FEC report is final-
followed up a few days later with a letter outlining his ized this week. But Henry County Council President Nate
experience with the Federal Reserve. Then on March 17, LaMar isn’t waiting, shifting a potential candidacy to the
Messer took action. He faxed a letter to Federal Reserve open Indiana State Senate seat of Doug Eckerty. “With the
Chair Janet Yellen to advocate for his constituent. It’s impending entry of Greg Pence into the 6th Congressional
exactly what Cook had hoped for. “I didn’t have a contact District Republican primary, it is prudent that I stand down
at the Federal Reserve in Washington, so I wanted them from my exploratory campaign,” LaMar said. “Thankfully,
to forward the information I had by whatever means they this almost coincides with the very recent retirement an-
determined most effective,” said Cook. “I wanted them to nouncement of my state senator, Doug Eckerty. There-
get the bank in front of the Federal Reserve to find if we fore, as encouraged by several of you, I am now seriously
could move forward.”
Page 10
considering the 26th State Senate district, for which I health professional for the past 50 years here in Southwest
received employer permission yesterday. In addition, my Indiana, and putting it to use to help vet legislation that
wife, Kris, thinks this could be more in God’s timing.” positively impacts all Hoosiers,” Bacon said. “Providing
health care while maintaining our state’s fiscal integrity are
General Assembly among my top priorities while serving the people of House
District 75.”
HD4: AFP targets Soliday over HEA1002
A conservative, anti-tax interest group is targeting President
state Rep. Ed Soliday, R-Valparaiso, for leading the legisla-
tive effort to ensure Indiana has sufficient resources to Trump popularity erodes in rural America
meet its infrastructure needs for years to come (Carden, President Trump’s popularity is slipping in rural
NWI Times). Americans for Prosperity-Indiana is sending America. Trump, who inspired millions of supporters last
mailers to some Valparaiso-area homes and deploying tar- year in places like Morgan County, has been losing his
geted online advertisements to call attention to Soliday’s grip on rural America. According to the Reuters/Ipsos
sponsorship of House Enrolled Act 1002, which raised the daily tracking poll, the Republican president’s popularity is
state’s gasoline tax by 10 cents per gallon and increased eroding in small towns and rural communities where 15%
vehicle registration fees by $15 per year. “We are disap- of the country’s population lives. The poll of more than
pointed that after years of fiscally-responsible, low-tax 15,000 adults in ‘non-metro’ areas shows that they are
policies that grew our economy, certain lawmakers decided now as likely to disapprove of Trump as they are to ap-
to reverse course by advocating for the gas tax,” said prove of him.
AFP Indiana Director Justin Stevens. “If lawmakers vote In September, 47% of people in non-metro areas
to make life more expensive for Hoosiers and erode the approved of Trump while 47% disapproved. That is down
economic benefits we’ve reaped through years of tax cuts, from Trump’s first four weeks in office, when 55% said
our activists will hold them accountable.” they approved of the president while 39% disapproved.
The poll found that Trump has lost support in rural areas
HD64: Ungethiem enters race among men, whites and people who never went to col-
Bruce Ungethiem – leader of the successful 2012 lege. He lost support with rural Republicans and rural vot-
campaign to defeat Evansville-Vanderburgh consolida- ers who supported him on Election Day
tion and a county commissioner for the past three years
– wants to go to Indianapolis (Lang-
horne, Evansville Courier & Press).
Ungethiem said Thursday night he
will forgo reelection to county gov-
ernment’s three-member executive
governing body next year and will try
instead to succeed retiring Rep. Tom
Washburne in the Indiana Legislature. Trump popularity sags in Indiana
Fewer than nine months into President Donald
HD18: Wolkins to seek reelection Trump’s White House tenure, a Morning Consult survey
His constituents and their views on some issues in all 50 states indicates that voters have grown bearish
have changed over the years, but Indiana District 18 on his performance in office. Trump has failed to improve
State. Rep. Dave Wolkins feels he still has the pulse of his standing among the public anywhere — including the
the communities he serves (Slone, Warsaw Times-Union). states he won handily as the Republican nominee during
After being diagnosed with adenoid cystic carcinoma – an the 2016 presidential election, according to the survey,
uncommon cancer, which was found in one of his ears – which was based on interviews of 472,032 registered vot-
in late 2015, Wolkins had decided that his reelection in ers across each state and Washington, D.C., from Trump’s
2016 would be his last. But circumstances changed, and in Jan. 20 inauguration to Sept. 26. The negative swings in
September he announced he would run again in 2018. “I net approval ranged from as high as 30 percentage points
was worried about my health situation. I don’t want to be in solidly blue Illinois and New York to as low as 11 points
carried out of that place, and this year I’ve had very good in red Louisiana. But in many of the states Trump easily
MRIs. I had one a month ago and everything, I’m still carried last year — such as Tennessee (-23 points), Mis-
cancer free.” Wolkins said. sissippi (-21 percentage points), Kentucky (-20 points),
Kansas (-19 points) and Indiana (-17 points) — voters
HD75: Bacon announces reelection have soured on the president in 2017.v
State Rep. Ron Bacon (R-Chandler) will seek a
fifth term. “I am taking what I have learned working as aPage 11
Why GOP should n Promotes tougher environmental laws;
n Is against photo IDs for voters;
oppose a redistricing
n Is against proof of citizenship for voters;
n Staunch supporters of abortion rights;
n Against education vouchers and school choice.
commission Now call me a supreme skeptic but these issues
sound more like the Democratic Party platform than they
do a non-partisan organization that is supposed to be
By CRAIG DUNN
focused on getting people to vote.
KOKOMO – Beware, Indiana legislators!
There is plenty of evidence that the Democratic
There’s a wolf in sheep’s clothing lurking around,
strategy of shifting from legislatively drawn electoral
looking for the opportunity to circumvent Republican
boundaries to commission-drawn boundaries is work-
electoral success. The sheep’s clothing in this case is
ing. No better example of Democratic perfidy exists than
the benign sounding Special Interim Study Committee
in California. Prior to “non-partisan” commission-drawn
on Redistricting. The wolf or wolves here in Indiana are
election boundaries, Republicans in California held 18 of
the Democrat Party, Com-
54 Congressional seats. Based on Republican voter totals,
mon Cause, League of Women
if seats were allocated on vote percentages, Republicans
Voters, Hoosier Environmental
should have held 20 seats. Then along came the “non-
Council, Citizens Action Coali-
partisan” redistricting commission and the results changed.
tion, ACLU, NAACP, Indiana
Instead of holding 20 Congressional seats, the non-parti-
Farmers Union, Jobs for Justice
san boundaries reduced the Republicans to only 14 seats.
and Moral Mondays.
This was accomplished by Democratic opera-
Back in the old days,
tives forming sham organizations that purported them-
when Democrats held the gov-
selves to be citizen-based and non-partisan and using the
ernor’s office and the Indiana
organizations to lobby the non-partisan commission draw-
House, there was no inces-
ing the boundaries.
sant drumbeat for redistrict-
In Indiana, if Brian Bosma, Brandt Hershman and
ing reform coming from the
Mike Karickhoff formed an organization called Citizens for
media, the League of Women Voters and Common Cause.
Fair Election Districts and then lobbied for certain district
The only reason that redistricting reform has become the
boundaries, I think the media and the public would scream
current cause du jour is that since 2010 Republicans have
bloody murder. And yet, our good friends in California let
been giving Democrats a serious thumping all over the
their “non-partisan” districting sham proceed and the GOP
country.
took another California beating.
Republicans now virtually control 30 state legisla-
Let’s face it, there is absolutely no way to make
tures and the apportionment process in those states. As
a redistricting process apolitical or non-partisan. It can’t
every good Democrat knows, there is more than one way
be done. You could draw names out of a hat for all posi-
to skin a cat. If you can’t win control of the redistricting
tions on a commission, but the members still have preju-
process by winning elections, you can always try and cir-
dices. You might make the process look fairer, but make no
cumvent the process by calling for non-partisan redistrict-
mistake about it, if humans are involved, their prejudices
ing commissions. That’s why you see an alphabet soup of
will make it into the process. How about letting computers
liberal groups pushing for redistricting reform.
do it? Computers must be programmed by humans. Gar-
Republicans and the public in general would
bage in gets you garbage out. Who are we going to allow
be wise to not take the easy bait and allow the removal
to control the data? Equifax?
of the process for establishing legislative districts from the
Elections have consequences. The party control-
Indiana Legislature and pass the responsibility on to a so
ling the state legislature has control over the redistricting
called “non-partisan” commission. I’m not sure the good
process. It is as simple as that. If you don’t like who is
Lord has ever created a “non-partisan” commission.
drawing legislative boundaries then vote them out of of-
Wait, Craig, isn’t the League of Women Voters a
fice and let your guys draw the new maps. Non-partisan
non-partisan organization? Well, let’s see. How about I
redistricting commissions are the political equivalent of a
just list their positions on many issues and let you judge
participation trophy; “You got your butt pounded at the
their non-partisanship. From their website, these are
polls? I’m sorry. Let’s make you feel better by letting your
some of their positions on key issues:
friends draw new boundaries.”
n Promotes legislation to deal with climate
I feel confident that after the Special Interim
change;
Study Committee on Redistricting has met, gathered
n Promotes tougher gun control laws;
critical information and testimony, the members will give
n Opposes Citizens United ruling;
thoughtful consideration to all viewpoints and then keep
n Promotes Obamacare;
on doing everything the same way. Why would Republi-Page 12
cans risk their sizable majorities in both Indiana legislative money and put together the resources and platform to win
bodies for the sake of pleasing a litany of liberal leaning control of the Indiana Legislature and in 2010, Republicans
organizations, the Democratic Party and a left-of-center drew the boundaries. That is the way it has always been
media? I don’t see any serious Republican willing to be done and it is the way it always should be done. Once
that foolish. again, repeat after me, elections have consequences. v
When Republicans carried 54% of the votes in
Indiana House elections and still saw a Democrat Pat Bau- Dunn is a former Howard County Republican chair-
er presiding as speaker of the House, they didn’t complain. man.
No one would have listened. Gov. Mitch Daniels raised the
Limited county the growth in average wages was barely greater than the
state’s; Boone’s average compensation was a weak 1.6%,
economic success
while in both Gibson and Hendricks average compensation
fell.
In all, 80 of our 92 Hoosier counties saw real
By MORTON MARCUS (adjusted for inflation) wages per job rise. By contrast, 56
INDIANAPOLIS – Last week in this space we counties lost jobs. On balance, only 33 counties had posi-
reported on the poor performance of Indiana in terms of tive results in both measures of economic success.
adding jobs (47th in the nation) and advancing incomes In only a dozen counties did average wages fall.
(48th). This week we’ll go down to the county level and Of these, nine (including Henry, Howard and Fayette)
see where there are bright spots and where conditions are saw both compensation per job and the number of jobs
dismal. decline. Do these nine counties deserve greater attention
The rate of change in the fromstate government? Is the past is a rationale for com-
number of jobs is a measure pensatory action? This presumes the state has or should
of economic success the press have a policy about where companies locate and which
and politicos have identified as companies to assist in their expansions.
important. The U.S. Bureau of For decades no policy about the location of firms
Economic Analysis reports, from has seemed evident in Indiana. Let the firms decide where
2005 to 2015, jobs in the nation to locate. We’ll do as other states do: Invest in whatever
grew, by 5.9%. Through that infrastructure is necessary for a particular company, train
recession and recovery, Indiana whatever workers are needed, reduce taxes, and remove
jobs increased by just 2.3%. Yet other barriers to get whatever jobs are available. We even
16 Indiana counties surpassed believed changing time zones would be a job creator.
that national rate. We grow hardwood in Indiana. We make steel in Indiana.
Of those 16 counties, four Where do we grow or make backbones?
(Bartholomew, Decatur, Sul-
livan and White) stand out because they also saw average Mr. Marcus is an economist, writer, and speaker
compensation for jobs grow faster than the nation’s 9%. who may be reached at mortonjmarcus@yahoo.
These four are the super stars of a difficult decade.
(When we talk about jobs and wages in a county, we
mean jobs located there, not necessarily the jobs and
wages of people residing in that county.)
More puzzling are the seven counties (includ-
ing Jackson and Newton) where compensation per job
increased faster than the nation, but the number of jobs
declined. In contrast, a different set of 16 counties (includ-
ing Blackford, Dubois, Jay, Lake, and Vanderburgh) also
saw declining numbers of jobs, with wages advancing
faster than the state as a whole (2.3%).
The economic experiences of our counties are quite
diverse. We have counties adding jobs very rapidly with
very different results. Boone, Gibson, Hamilton and Hen-
dricks counties were the leaders in the rate of job growth,
each exceeding 25% in the 2005-15 decade. In Hamilton,Page 13
GOP hides behind doesn’t say much about the most powerful country in the
world.
2nd Amendement
This is how President Donald Trump put it when
dodging the issue of gun reform. “We’ll be talking about
gun laws as time goes by,” Trump said. And Senate Major-
By Rich James ity Leader Mitch McConnell had this to say when the issue
MERRILLVILLE – Every time adults and children of gun law reform came up. “It’s entirely premature to be
are gunned down in a school or theater or music venue, talking about gun laws,” McConnell said.
Republicans run and hide behind Two of the most powerful men in American es-
the 2nd Amendment. It was sentially said we’ll talk about the issue sometime down
no different a week ago when the road. It all makes me wonder what Vice President
59 were killed and hundreds Mike Pence had to say back home in Indiana. Indiana, of
wounded at a concert in Las course, has some of the most lax gun laws in the nation.
Vegas. Officials in Chicago for years have blamed their
Is it time for new gun homicide problem on the gun laws in Indiana. They say it
laws? Well, maybe, perhaps in is just too easy for gang bangers to go to the Lake County
the future, but not now is the Fairgrounds and buy guns without background checks. But
response from Republicans. We Indiana legislators or recent governors never have shown
certainly don’t want to upset an interest in eliminating the gun show loophole.
the National Rifle Association, As I watched Pence and his wife, Karen, bow their
Republicans say. Americans have heads during a vigil for those who died in Las Vegas, I
a right to bear arms because, wondered what he was thinking. I suspect it wasn’t Indi-
well, the British might be coming. And, the standard Re- ana gun laws. v
publican argument is that tougher gun laws won’t stop the
kind of thing that happened in Las Vegas or Sandy Hook. Rich James has been writing about state and local
Something has to be done because 96 people government and politics for more than 30 years. He
die in America each day because of gun violence. That is a columnist for The Times of Northwest Indiana.Page 14
Looking at Senate vulnerable as they may seem at first blush.
Given the imbalance of Senate Class I, it’s not a
maps in 2018, 2020
shock that Senate Classes II and III, which will next be on
the ballot, are imbalanced as well, but instead in favor of
the Republicans. Let’s look at them in order.
By KYLE KONDIK Senate Class II, last on the ballot in 2014 and up
Sabato’s Crystal Ball again in 2020’s presidential election, features 22 Republi-
CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va. - The U.S. Senate is a cans and 11 Democrats.
curious, unique legislative body for a lot of reasons. It has This map has flipped twice in the last two elec-
arcane rules, such as the filibuster, which limits the pas- tion, first cementing and then dismantling a Democratic
sage of most legislative items unless 60 members vote Senate majority. Republicans netted two seats apiece in
yes. Representation in the Senate is not based on popula- 1996 and 2002 to build a 21-12 edge in Class II, a precari-
tion; instead, each state gets two and only two senators, ous advantage that flipped to 20-13 Democratic as they
meaning that California (the most populous state) and picked up eight seats amidst Barack Obama’s first presi-
Wyoming (the least populous) have equal say in the Sen- dential victory in 2008. That turned a slim 51-49 Demo-
ate. Each get 2% of the Senate’s membership -- two out cratic Senate majority into a 59-41 advantage that grew to
of 100 senators -- even though California has 12% of the 60-40 with Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter’s party switch,
nation’s people while Wyoming only has 0.2%. And unlike although the contested election of Sen. Al Franken (D-
the House, where the entire membership is on the ballot MN), who wasn’t seated until July 2009, followed by the
every two years, only a third of the Senate’s membership death of Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA) and Scott Brown’s (R)
is on the ballot each federal election cycle. subsequent upset victory in the special election to replace
A telling sign of the Democratic Party’s challenge Kennedy in early 2010 limited the Democrats’ filibuster-
in the next Senate election is that proof majority to just several
slightly more than half of the party’s months.
current caucus, 25 of the 48 members, Democrats held the Sen-
are on the ballot next year. So even ate in the 2010 and 2012 elec-
though only a third of the nation’s tions, but their nine-seat net
100 Senate seats are regularly loss on 2014’s Class II map
scheduled for election every two led to the GOP taking a 54-46
years, a majority of the entire majority starting in 2015, a
Democratic caucus has to run majority they continue to hold
next year. (albeit two seats weaker after
Meanwhile, just eight of 2016) now.
the 52 Senate Republicans will be One would expect that
on the ballot next year, or 15% of Democrats would have more
the GOP caucus. So the current targets than Republicans in
party control of 2018’s Senate 2020, and that is correct,
Class I is 25-8 Democratic. although the size of the Re-
Democrats have man- publican gain in 2014 perhaps
aged to net seats on this map in makes their 2020 defenses
each of the last three elections, seem harder than they might
adding four in 2000, an additional six to flip control of the actually be.
upper chamber in 2006, and then two more in 2012 when In flipping the Senate in 2014, Republicans beat
most expected them to lose net seats because of the sheer Democrats in several states that are very Republican at
volume of ground they were defending. The last good the presidential level. So while first-term Republicans dot
Republican performance in Class I’s elections was 1994, the map, they represent some deep red territory that
when the GOP netted eight seats and flipped the Senate. even a weakened President Trump running for reelection,
When a party does as well on a Senate map as the Demo- or another Republican candidate, should be able to carry
crats have on this one over several cycles, they eventually comfortably in the presidential election: Alaska, Arkansas,
crash, although the rhythms of midterm elections and the Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia.
president’s poor approval rating could put off that crash for Whoever wins the December special election in Alabama
at least another six years. Or not. -- probably lightning rod Republican Roy Moore -- will also
We’ve written extensively about next year’s be back on the ballot in this election. With a different oc-
Senate elections already, and we don’t want to cover the cupant in the White House than Barack Obama, perhaps
same ground here. Whatever does happen next year, Democrats can field credible challengers in these states,
though, Republicans have much more ground to defend but none of these states are trending Democratic.
over the next two Senate elections, but they are not as Still, Republicans may have a harder time defend-You can also read
