Autonomous mobility is coming. Not even the coronavirus can stop it. Roland Berger

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Autonomous mobility is coming. Not even the coronavirus can stop it. Roland Berger
Autonomous
mobility is coming.
Not even the
coronavirus can
stop it.
                                 t o m otive
                              Au
                                      ption
                               Disru ar
                                    Rad

                                      #8

      Roland Berger Automotive Disruption Radar #8 – 2020   1
Autonomous mobility is coming. Not even the coronavirus can stop it. Roland Berger
2   Roland Berger Automotive Disruption Radar #8 – 2020
Autonomous mobility is coming. Not even the coronavirus can stop it. Roland Berger
The coronavirus crisis hit the automotive industry
                                           hard but also accelerated the shift towards
                                           autonomous mobility, the latest edition of the
                                           Automotive Disruption Radar has found.
                                           All indicators in the twice-yearly report and survey
                                           suggest disruption is still coming to the sector,
                                           despite the pandemic-induced downturn and
                                           changes in mobility habits.

                                           The eighth edition of the ADR, which tracks
                                           26 indicators in 18 global markets, found that
                                           Covid-19 stimulated technology players while
                                           hitting traditional OEMs hard. Overall, country
                                           scores were the highest on record, with smaller
                                           countries closing the gap on bigger markets.
                                           The Netherlands ranked number one, as it did in
                                           ADR7, followed by Singapore, leaving former
                                           frontrunner China in joint third with South Korea.

                                           The survey results also highlighted a growing
                                           interest in electric vehicles and soaring EV sales.
                                           For example, 50% of all potential car buyers say
                                           they are now considering a battery EV – compared
                                           with 35% in ADR1 (Jan 2017).
                                           Interest in private vehicle ownership also rose,
                                           and R&D activity hit a record high.

                                           In this booklet, we take a closer look at these
                                           figures and analyze four real-life developments
                                           that underscore the shift to autonomous mobility:
Cover photo Michael Hitoshi/Getty Images

                                           Commercialization of autonomous mobility
                                           services; growing competition in the EV market;
                                           OEMs fall behind as new players enter software
                                           market; and the rise and rise of Tesla.

                                                       Roland Berger Automotive Disruption Radar #8 – 2020   3
Under the hood:
Key report findings
The first ADR since the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic shows that
the transformation of the global automotive industry to autonomous
mobility continues unabated despite the crisis. This was the case across all
five ADR dimensions (customer interest, regulation, technology, infra-
structure and industry activity) and their 26 indicators. These measure

Growing up: Evolution of ADR country scores
since the first edition in 2017
Overall score as percentage of maximum score

64%

62%

60%

58%

56%
                                                               Singapore
                                                     China     South Korea
54%

52%
                                                               Netherlands

50%                                                            Sweden

                              Netherlands
48%                                                 Global
                                                 USA, India    Japan, France
46%        South Korea        China, Singapore                 Germany

44%                           Germany, India                   UK
                  Global      France, USA

42%                                                            Italy
                              UK
                                                               Belgium
40%
                              Japan
38%

36%
                        ADR 1                             ADR 3
                        (Jan 17)                         (Jan 18)

Source: Roland Berger

4 Roland Berger Automotive Disruption Radar #8 – 2020
factors from mobility behavior and vehicle sales to CO2 regulations, 5G
mobile network coverage and research and development. Countries are
awarded scores according to their performance in each of the 26 indicators.

Overall scores among the 18 surveyed nations were the highest since the
ADR began in 2017, and the top four countries all achieved totals higher
than any previous top-ranked country. The average score also jumped, from
around 50% of the maximum achievable score in ADR7 (January 2020) to
55%. Only one country – Canada – performed worse than in ADR7.

                                                          Netherlands             1

                                                          Singapore               2

                                         3     China      South Korea             3

                China
                                                          Sweden                  5
                Singapore
                Sweden                        Global      UK                      6

 Netherlands    South Korea              7     France     Germany                 7
                                                          Spain                   9

                UK
      India     Germany                                   UAE                 10
     Global     Spain                    11      Italy    USA                 11
                France                   13     India     Japan               13
                USA                                       Russia              15

                Russia                   16   Belgium     Saudi Arabia        16
                UAE
                Japan
                Italy
                                                          Canada              18
                Belgium

                                                          XX Country ranking

                                                               Score evolution
                                                               vs. last edition

          ADR 6                                     ADR 8
          (Jan 18)                                 (Sept 20)

                            Roland Berger Automotive Disruption Radar #8 – 2020       5
Small but mighty
The performance of smaller markets was particularly impressive – the
Netherlands recorded the highest score ever, while China was the only
automotive “superpower” to make the top 5. Results from the survey
component of the report (which account for a third of the total score) were
a key driver here, with customers in countries that have little or no
automotive industry much more enthusiastic about new mobility concepts.

Down with cars: Most countries show an increased level
of interest in mobility concepts since the outbreak
of the Covid-19 pandemic

“How many people do you know who don’t or did not want to buy a car because
they exclusively use other mobility concepts?”

Most enthusiastic countries
about the use of mobility concepts

                                                                              75%
Singapore
                                                                                    85%
                                                                              75%
India
                                                                                 80%
                                                                              75%
UAE
                                                                                 80%
                                                                          70%
China
                                                                             75%
                                                                        65%
Saudi Arabia
                                                                              75%

Less enthusiastic countries
about the use of mobility concepts

                                                                  50%
Italy
                                                                  50%
                                                       40%
UK
                                                                  50%
                                                  35%
France
                                                     40%
                                              30%
USA
                                                       40%
                                                 35%
Japan
                                              30%

   ADR7 (Jan 2020)         ADR8 (Sept 2020)

Source: Roland Berger Automotive Disruption Radar online survey

6 Roland Berger Automotive Disruption Radar #8 – 2020
EVs charge ahead
Several specific developments caught the eye. Most notable was a big
jump in interest in EVs, with 50% of potential car buyers now considering
an EV, against 40% in ADR7 in early 2020. Some of the biggest individual
jumps came in China (80% vs. 60%), the Netherlands (45% vs. 30%) and
Germany (40% vs. 25%). People living in city centers are most keen on EVs,
with 60% of potential car buyers living in cities considering one. The rise in
interest may be attributable to the massive Covid-related government
stimulus packages currently being rolled out, many of which include
generous EV subsidies.

Leading the charge: South Korea and China have rapidly
expanded their electric vehicle charging networks in 2020
Number of charging locations per 100 km of roadway
          15.2

16%
15%
14%
13%
12%
                        10.6

11%
10%
 9%
8%
 7%
                                     6.1

 6%
 5%
                                             3.9

 4%
                                                   3.0
                                                             2.5
                                                                      2.3

 3%
                                                                            2.2
                                                                                      1.8
                                                                                              1.5

 2%
                                                                                                       1.2
                                                                                                                   1.0
                                                                                                                           0.9
                                                                                                                                   0.6
                                                                                                                                            0.5

 1%
                                                                                                                                                  0.0
                                                                                                                                                          0.0
                                                                                                                                                                   0.0

 0%
                                                                                                                                            USA
                                                                            Germany

                                                                                                                           Italy
                                             UK
         South Korea
                       Netherlands
                                     China

                                                   Sweden
                                                            Belgium
                                                                      UAE

                                                                                      Japan
                                                                                              France
                                                                                                       Singapore
                                                                                                                   Spain

                                                                                                                                   Canada

                                                                                                                                                  India
                                                                                                                                                          Russia
                                                                                                                                                                   Saudi Arabia

   ADR1 (Jan 2017)                             ADR8 (Sept 2020)

Source: EV Volumes, desk research, Roland Berger

                                                        Roland Berger Automotive Disruption Radar #8 – 2020                                                                  7
This shift in buying intention has translated into an increase in EV sales,
particularly in northern hemisphere markets. In Sweden, for example,
almost a quarter of all vehicles sold are now fully electric or plug-in hybrid
models. And compared to the first half of 2018, the number of EVs sold as
a percentage of the total number of vehicles sold leapt in France (7.8% vs.
1.8%), Germany (7.2% vs. 1.8%) and the UK (6.9% vs. 2.0%). Subsidies no
doubt again played a part.

An electric market: More people are now interested
in buying an EV than they were at the start of 2020
Percentage of potential car buyers

“Are you considering buying a battery electric vehicle as your next car?”

                                                                        60%
China
                                                                                    80%

                                                                              70%
India
                                                                                    80%

                                                                                75%
Saudi Arabia
                                                                                75%

                                                                    55%
South Korea
                                                                              70%

                                                                        60%
UAE
                                                                              70%

                                                                    55%
Spain
                                                                          65%

                                                         40%
Italy
                                                                    55%

                                                     35%
Singapore
                                                                  50%

                                                30%
Netherlands
                                                              45%

   ADR7 (Jan 2020)         ADR8 (Sept 2020)

Source: Roland Berger Automotive Disruption Radar online survey

8 Roland Berger Automotive Disruption Radar #8 – 2020
Tesla remains the dominant EV seller, with its models featuring heavily in
lists of the top 5 manufacturers by EV sales in each country. Its Model 3
saloon is particularly prevalent, with sales in the US and China alone in the
first half of 2020 reaching almost 90,000. Sales by traditional OEMs are
also picking up, with Renault’s Zoe performing well in European markets,
for example. Chinese producers, such as BYD and GAC, are largely confined
to the top 5 of the Chinese market.

             ADR7                           ADR8
             average      40%               average       50%
             (Jan 2020)                     (Sept 2020)

                                         35%
Sweden
                                                 45%

                                         35%
Canada
                                            40%

                                     30%
France
                                             40%

                                 25%
Germany
                                             40%

                                 25%
Russia
                                             40%

                                 25%
UK
                                             40%

                                 25%
Belgium
                                         35%

                                 25%
USA
                                         35%

                              20%
Japan
                              20%

                          Roland Berger Automotive Disruption Radar #8 – 2020   9
Robotaxis good,
private cars better
As in previous editions, ADR8 measured mobility preferences, where
Covid-19 also made its presence felt. Unsurprisingly, the desire to travel by
private car has increased since the pandemic, with the importance of
having access to a private vehicle rising from 69% to 76% overall.
The increase was greatest among young people and city center dwellers.

Private preferred: Access to a private car has grown
in importance since the Covid-19 pandemic
Global average and selected demographic groups

“Before the Covid crisis started, how important was it for you to have access
to a private vehicle?”

                            10%

                                                                                                   34%
                                                                     32%

                                                                                                 30%
                                                                    30%

                                                                  26%

                                                                                           25%

 36%                                        22%

                 69%
                                                            12%

                                                                                     11%

                                                            18-29 years old            City center
                        32%

“Today, how important is it for you to have access to a private vehicle?”
                                                                                                       45%

                           7%
                                                                              41%

                                        16%
                                                                        31%

                                                                                                 29%
                                                                  20%

                 76%
                                                                                           18%

48%
                                                            8%

                                                                                     8%

                                       29%
                                                            18-29 years old            City center

   Not important       Slightly important       Important          Very important

Source: Roland Berger online survey September 2020: 17,202 participants – Participants by country:
Belgium 1,009; Canada 1,002; China 1,005; France 1,008; Germany 1,008; India 1,013; Italy 1,022;
Japan 1,014; Netherlands 1,008; Russia 1,005; Saudi Arabia 527; Singapore 1,010; South Korea 1,010;
Spain 1,013; Sweden 1,011; UAE 503; UK 1,015; USA 1,019

10 Roland Berger Automotive Disruption Radar #8 – 2020
Despite this, autonomous mobility services don’t seem to have suffered at
the hands of Covid-19 – willingness to use autonomous robocabs rose to
56% overall from 52% in ADR6 (July 2019). Results were particularly high
in Asia and the Middle East. So, respondents seem to want autonomous
cars, but they are not giving up private vehicles.

Rise of the robocabs: Enthusiasm for robotaxi services
has risen in the past year, particularly in North America
Global average and by continent

“Would you use a mobility service based on a fully autonomous robocab?1”

                  52%                                                     56%
                        ADR 6                                                   ADR 8
                    (Jul 2019)                                             (Sept 2020)
     34%

                  40%

                                54%

                                           73%

                                                               30%

                                                                          34%

                                                                                        50%

                                                                                              57%
                                                               70%
     66%

                                                                          66%
                  60%

                                                                                        50%
                                46%

                                                                                              43%
                                           27%

     Asia      Middle Europe North                            Asia    Middle Europe North
                East         America                                   East         America

   Yes       No                                              Yes     No

1 Autonomous driving taxis without a driver in the vehicle
Source: Roland Berger Automotive Disruption Radar online surveys

                                      Roland Berger Automotive Disruption Radar #8 – 2020 11
Research & Development
keeps on developing
Covid-19 also failed to dent autonomous mobility R&D activities.
The number of full-time equivalent employees working in R&D jobs in the
sector and listed on LinkedIn increased by 8% to 147,000 between the first
and third quarter of 2020. Additionally, the number of registered patents
related to autonomous vehicles/functions as a percentage of all registered
driving technology patents reached an all-time high of 5.4%. It has risen in
all eight ADR editions.

Patent pattern: The number of autonomous driving-related
registered patents has grown every year since the ADR began
Autonomous driving-related patents
as a share of all driving technology patents

                                                                  136,623

                                                     125,107

                                                                          5.4%
                                           101,569

                               89,123

                 80,565                                         4.2%
                                                                            78,209

                                                   3.3%

                                        2.3%

                            1.6%

             1.3%

                  2015         2016         2017      2018         2019      2020
                                                                            (Jan-Sept)

   Total patents in scope      Share of patents with keywords

Source: Patentinspiration, Roland Berger

12 Roland Berger Automotive Disruption Radar #8 – 2020
How the industry is changing:
Four real-life examples
While the ADR indicators and survey results suggest that
Covid-19 has failed to halt the charge of autonomous mobility,
it is real-life developments that prove it in practice,
as demonstrated in our four examples.

       Commercialization of autonomous
       mobility services

       OEMs fall behind as new players
       enter software market

       Growing competition
       in the EV market

       The rise and rise of Tesla

                    Roland Berger Automotive Disruption Radar #8 – 2020 13
Commercialization
of autonomous mobility services
After much trailing and hype, robotaxis are finally here. The Alphabet-
owned autonomous driving technology firm Waymo, oft-mentioned in
previous ADR editions, has launched a fully driverless service in the US,
albeit almost 18 months later than promised. In October 2020, Waymo told
Ars Technika, a technology magazine, that its vehicles are initially operating

For and against: Reasons for adopting or not adopting
autonomous mobility have changed considerably
in the past three years
Percentage of survey respondents

                                         Reasons for Yes
                                         (multiple answers possible)
  If the technology for auto-
                                                                                        55%
nomous vehicles is proven to
                                                                           35%
 be safe and well established

   If same or lower cost than                                                     45%
 taxi/chauffeur services/cabs                                            31%

    If same or lower cost than                                                    45%
         public transportation                                    22%

                                                              20%
If I use the service exclusively
                                                   8%

                                         Reasons for No
                                         (multiple answers possible)
            No, because I want                                20%
                to drive myself                                           34%

      No, because I don’t trust
                                                                                40%
            the technology for
                                                              20%
        automonous vehicles

            No, because I want                                     25%
                a human driver                          13%

       No, because I am afraid
                                                                           35%
        to have lack of control
                                                    11%
 (e.g. to stop or leave the car)

   ADR3 (Jan 2018)         ADR8 (Sept 2020)

Source: Roland Berger Automotive Disruption Radar online survey

14 Roland Berger Automotive Disruption Radar #8 – 2020
in a 50-square mile area covering four suburbs in Phoenix, Arizona,
alongside a fleet of self-driving cars that have a safety driver. A spokesman
said that before the pandemic, the company was providing “1,000 to 2,000
weekly rides in total, five to ten percent of which were fully driverless.”
The firm added that it expects to return to that volume by the end of 2020,
and grow from there. It will now be interesting to see if Waymo can
establish and sustain a viable business model. If it can, the firm will not
only be a leader in autonomous driving technology, but also the commercial
leader in the sector.

OEMs fall behind as new players
enter software market
Big-name technology players are not only diving into the EV market – they
are increasingly entering the OEM software market as well. In the biggest
recent development, the US chip manufacturer Nvidia announced a
partnership with Daimler, the manufacturer of Mercedes-Benz cars,
to produce a software architecture for autonomous driving.

A key feature of the new platform will be its ability to update battery and
driving software via the internet. For example, data for new features or
regulations, such as autonomous parking or updated self-driving rules,
can be downloaded via mobile networks as they become available and for
the entire vehicle lifecycle. Previously, Mercedes updates were largely
limited to infotainment apps.

The architecture is based on Nvidia’s AI-based Drive platform. As with
similar products, it offers a range of autonomous driving software,
including a central computer to control sensors and AI functions, and
reference architecture. Like Foxconn’s platform, it is also open source.
Drive should be available across Daimler’s range of brands from 2024.

Daimler has said it aims to develop the most advanced architecture in the
automotive industry. However, its new partnership shows that OEMs are
having difficulties building in-house software competencies. This is
allowing new players into the space, players that can better differentiate
and therefore be more profitable than mere hardware manufacturers.
OEMs will have to take measures to address this risk and defend margins.

                         Roland Berger Automotive Disruption Radar #8 – 2020 15
Growing competition
in the EV market
The EV market has seen a flurry of activity recently with the entrance of
several new players. Most notable is that of Foxconn, the Taiwanese firm
best known for making Apple iPhones. In October 2020, it unveiled its MIH
Open Platform, an architecture consisting of EV hardware and software.
But it has one major difference to typical closed EV systems, such as those
used by Tesla. Foxconn will grant open-source access to third party
developers and car companies to develop the platform, with the hope of
making it the “Android of EVs”.

Powering up: Electric vehicle sales have ballooned in most
ADR countries since 2018, with Sweden way out in front
EV/PHEV/FCEV sales as percentage of total vehicle sales

Sold units ['000]         33                    21         69        96

                         23.9%                 10.9%      7.8%      7.2%

                                               3.2%       1.8%      1.8%

                          5.1%

                       Sweden               Netherlands   France   Germany

   ADR4 (2018 HY1)        ADR8 (2020 HY1)

Source: EV volumes, IHS, Roland Berger

16 Roland Berger Automotive Disruption Radar #8 – 2020
Foxconn hopes this strategy will quickly lead to new functionalities, such as
range improvements. It will layer and separate software and hardware so
they can be developed independently and costs kept down. The firm will
build EVs for others rather than produce its own EVs, with platforms
developed for several models from minis to powerful AWDs. Foxconn is
also partnering with several firms, including CATL and SES, to develop
solid-state batteries by 2024.

As Foxconn already produces autonomous driving technology, the MIH
Open Platform development marks the entrance of a major new industry
player. It remains to be seen how established OEMs will react, especially
in Asian markets.

             2018                            2020
             HY1        1.9%                 HY1        3.3%
             average                         average

    52         14       386     21      27      11     16 112 0.3 1 15.5

                                                           1.7%      1.5%
                               3.3%    2.9% 2.8% 2.5%             1.6%   >1.0%

   6.9%       5.7%      4.1%

                                                           1.4%    0.1%
   2.0%        2.1%     2.9%    2.1%   1.5%    0.7% 0.4%       0.4%    >1.0%

    UK       Belgium   China Canada            Spain Italy USA       UAE
                                       South                Singapore Japan,
                                       Korea                           India,
                                                                      Russia,
                                                                   Saudi Arabia

                         Roland Berger Automotive Disruption Radar #8 – 2020 17
18 Roland Berger Automotive Disruption Radar #8 – 2020
The rise and rise of Tesla
                            Investors love Tesla, and it seems that currently companies with a
                            comparable business model can profit simply by being a “kind of Tesla”.
                            The valuations of EV makers NIO, XPeng and Li Auto, for example, exploded
                            this fall on the back of strong delivery news. Other OEMs are now trying to
                            piggyback on the US firm’s success by copying its solutions. There are
                            several reasons for this.

                            Tesla is primarily a technology company. It therefore views its business as
                            much more than selling cars, and as such operates in other areas such as
                            CO2 emissions trading, data services, recycling, energy and even mining.

                            Top of the range: Tesla dominates sales of electric vehicles
                            in the 18 ADR countries, but traditional OEMs and Chinese
                            brands are catching up
                            Top 10 EV models sold sold in the 18 ADR countries from January to June 2020
                            (in thousand units)
                             129

                                                      #1                                             #3
                                                   In China,                                      In Germany
                                                South Korea, UK                                   and France
                                                and Netherlands

                                                                      4 models
                                                                       in Top 5
                                                                             in USA
                                       32

                                                  21

                                                             18

                                                                         18

                                                                                       16

                                                                                                   14

                                                                                                              14

                                                                                                                           14

                                                                                                                                         14
                                       Zoe EV

                                                            Leaf EV

                                                                         Aion S EV

                                                                                     e-Golf EV

                                                                                                 GTE PHEV

                                                                                                             Kona EV

                                                                                                                       E100/E200 EV

                                                                                                                                           PHEV
                                                                                          VW
                              Tesla
                            Model 3

                                      Renault

                                                  BYD Qin
                                                Pro EV600

                                                             Nissan

                                                                      GAC Trumpchi

                                                                                                 VW Passat

                                                                                                             Hyundai

                                                                                                                           GM-SAIC
                                                                                                                         Baojun E50/

                                                                                                                                       BMW 530Le
Photo kokouu/Getty Images

                            Source: EV Volumes, IHS, Roland Berger

                                                             Roland Berger Automotive Disruption Radar #8 – 2020 19
But its cars are its stars, and by building its own EV platform and software
it can offer unique services and features. In addition, vertical integration of
key differentiating technology, especially around batteries and its
e-powertrain, gives Tesla a competitive advantage in energy efficiency.

The company’s unique manufacturing approach that focuses heavily on
innovation also gives it an edge. For example, it uses die-cast vehicle

Digital growth: The number of cars bought through online
sales channels increased across the board during 2020
Percentage of sales completed online

                                                                  15%
China
                                                                              25%

                                                                        20%
Germany
                                                                              25%

                                                                  15%
India
                                                                              25%

                                                                              25%
South Korea
                                                                        20%

                                                10%
Spain
                                                                        20%

                                                                  15%
France
                                                                  15%

                                                                  15%
Italy
                                                                  15%

                                                                  15%
Netherlands
                                                                  15%

                                                                  15%
Saudi Arabia
                                                                  15%

   ADR7 (Jan 2020)         ADR8 (Sept 2020)

Source: Roland Berger Automotive Disruption Radar online survey

20 Roland Berger Automotive Disruption Radar #8 – 2020
body parts rather than spray-painting individual components to save
time and money.

Lastly, its lean online-based sales network has been a boon during the
pandemic, when dealerships were forced to close or wind down operations.
This has made its lack of physical dealers a competitive advantage. As a
result, more and more OEMs are likely to jump on the Tesla bandwagon.

            ADR7                           ADR8
            average      10%               average       15%
            (Jan 2020)                     (Sept 2020)

                                                  15%
Singapore
                                                  15%

                                     10%
Sweden
                                                  15%

                                     10%
UAE
                                                  15%

                                     10%
UK
                                                  15%

                                     10%
USA
                                                  15%

                                     10%
Belgium
                                     10%

                         5%
Canada
                                     10%

                                     10%
Russia
                                     10%

                         5%
Japan
                         5%

                         Roland Berger Automotive Disruption Radar #8 – 2020 21
22 Roland Berger Automotive Disruption Radar #8 – 2020
It’s clear from the ADR indicators and survey that
                              the future of the automotive industry is (still)
                              autonomous mobility. This is worrying for
                              traditionalists, who know that none of the current
                              major OEMs are technology leaders. It’s even
                              worse for pessimists, who can see that even
                              premium OEMs, with their huge R&D budgets, are
                              struggling to organically meet the required future
                              competency levels. The likes of Foxconn moving
                              into OEMs’ core business of vehicle manufacturing
                              is a further blow for the automotive
                              establishment.

                              But on the positive side, these are companies well
                              known for their manufacturing excellence and cost
                              effectiveness. So it will be interesting to see how
                              the major automotive firms defend themselves
                              from this disruptor attack and ensure they are still
                              producing competitive vehicles in the future.

                              To help companies adjust to the new normal in
                              the automotive industry, including post-Covid
                              strategies, disruptor threats and maintaining
                              a competitive advantage, Roland Berger has
                              developed its Automotive Triple Transformation
                              framework. It aims to help senior automotive
                              executives bring order to the complexity and
                              equip their businesses for the challenges of
                              the coming decade.
Photo tampatra/Getty Images

                                          Roland Berger Automotive Disruption Radar #8 – 2020 23
What is the Automotive
Disruption Radar?
The Automotive Disruption Radar is a biannual analysis of market trends
related to disruption in the global automotive industry. Its latest findings
are based on field research and a survey of 17,000+ car users across 18
markets (Belgium, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, the
Netherlands, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Korea, Spain, Sweden,

360-degree coverage: The Automotive Disruption Radar
is based on the permanent screening of 26 indicators
along five dimensions
Indicator definitions
                                                                                  Amount of shared vehicles
                                                                                    Shared vehicles in car parc [%]

                                                                                      EV portfolio
                                                   EV models currently on offer [% of total models]

                                     R&D intensity – Autonomous driving
                                     No. of FTEs listed on LinkedIn ['000 employees]

                                   Automotive products (Level 4+)
                                    Level 4 city vehicles [% of total car parc]                          5
                          Test roads – Autonomous vehicles                                           Industry
                                       Test tracks in operation [#; km]                               activity
                        Vehicle-2-vehicle communication
     Models with V2V functions [% of total models on the market]

                                        Multimodal mobility                                 4
                                     Usage of multimodal mobility
                                                                                    Infrastructure
                        EV/PHEV charging infrastructure
                        Number of charging stations per km of road

                               Mobile network – 5G coverage
                                   Steps taken towards 5G installation
                                                                                                            3
            Venture capital investment – Artificial intelligence
                                                                                                     Technology
                                                                Total in USD bn

                                     Venture capital investment – Mobility
                                                                          Total in USD bn

                                                                             Battery cost – EVs
                                                Expected development of battery cost [USD/kWh]

                                                                                             Patent activities
                                        Automotive patents filed related to autonomous technology [% of total]

Source: Roland Berger

24 Roland Berger Automotive Disruption Radar #8 – 2020
UAE, UK, USA). information is also drawn from external sources such as
     leading mobility experts and major industry reports. Each nation is scored
     along 26 indicators, grouped into five dimensions

     The ADR aims to answer key questions such as: which factors are driving
     change in automotive ecosystems; how do these factors evolve over time;
     and what can decision makers do to best manage disruption? Ultimately,
     the ADR is a go-to decision-making tool for senior executives in the
     mobility sector.

Mobility concept preferences
% of people who know at least one person who does not use their own car for mobility

            Autonomous vehicle preferences
            % of people who would use a fully autonomous robocab if it cost less than owning a vehicle

                         Mobility planning
                         % of people who use an app at least once a week to plan a trip

                                   Digitalized culture preferences
                                   % of people interested in buying a vehicle directly on the internet

                                         EV preferences
            1                            % of people who are considering buying an EV as their next vehicle

                                              Mobility behavior
       Customer                               % of overall distance traveled by car
        interest
                                              EV/PHEV sales
                                              % of total vehicle sales

                                              Customer curiosity
                                              People's web search behavior
            2                             Type approval process
      Regulation                          Current level of regulation

                                   Restrictions for ICEs
                                   Restrictions on ICE vehicles in cities with more than 500,000 inhabitants

                         CO2 legislation
                         CO2 emissions target in g/km

             Automotive association activities
             Positive actions/press releases [% of total number of actions/releases]

Autonomous vehicle – Computing power
Current level of computing power

                                         Roland Berger Automotive Disruption Radar #8 – 2020 25
Your contatcs

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                        Senior Partner
                        Löffelstraße 46
                        70597 Stuttgart
                        Wolfgang.Bernhart@rolandberger.com
                        +49 711 3275-7421

                        Stefan Riederle
                        Principal
                        Sederanger 1
                        80538 München
                        Stefan.Riederle@rolandberger.com
                        +49 89 9230-8169

Do you want to know more?

Computer on Wheels series
→ The car will become a computer on wheels
→ C omputers on wheels:
  Turning OEMs into software-enabled companies
                                                             Photos Roland Berger GmbH

→ Automotive Triple Transformation framework

26 Roland Berger Automotive Disruption Radar #8 – 2020
Roland Berger, founded in 1967, is the only leading global
consultancy of German heritage and European origin. With
2,400 employees working from 35 countries, we have successful
operations in all major international markets. Our 52 offices
are located in the key global business hubs. The consultancy is
an independent partnership owned exclusively by 250 Partners.

Automotive Disruption MADE by RB
We believe that the combination of 4 dimensions (Mobility,
Autonomous driving, Digitalization and Electrification) is likely to
trigger a major disruption in the automotive industry over the next
15 years. Since 2016, we have been bringing together our experts
from all around the world to try to make this new future and its
implications more concrete, and to best support the key decision
makers of the automotive industry.

                Roland Berger Automotive Disruption Radar #8 – 2020 27
Publisher
Roland Berger GmbH
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80538 Munich
Germany
+49 89 9230-0

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This publication has been prepared for general guidance only. The reader
should not act according to any information provided in this publication
without receiving specific professional advice. Roland Berger GmbH shall
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