Market trends For week ending February 3, 2023 - Performance Foodservice
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market trends For week ending February 3, 2023
market trends
WEek ending February 3, 2023
Produce
MARKET OVERVIEW
Squash and bell peppers seem to be easing, and the color
MARKET ALERT
pepper supply is excellent. The corn market will be very short • Cabbage (Red) – ESCALATED
as the fallout from last month’s freeze is now affecting the crop, • Carrots (Jumbo) – ESCALATED
causing extremely low yields and more loss than expected. • Celery - ESCALATED
• Cilantro - ESCALATED
Honeydew and cantaloupe have become quite a challenge due
• Corn – EXTREME
to cooler weather and will most likely not improve until Mid-Feb-
• Eggplant - ESCALATED
ruary. In Yuma, the weather has cooled, with frost showing in • Garlic – ESCALATED
the fields each morning, which is affecting a few of the markets. • Ginger – EXTREME
The forecast is for this to continue into next week, but it is not • Green Beans – ESCALATED
expected to get extremely cold. • Green Onions – ESCALATED
• Chili Peppers - ESCALATED
• Serrano and Anaheim Pepper – EXTREME
• Limes - ESCALATED
• Melons (Cantaloupe, Honeydew, & Watermelon) -
ESCALATED
• Mushrooms – ESCALATED
• Sugar Snap Peas (West)– ESCALATED
WATCH LIST
• Bananas
• Seedless & Mini Seedless Watermelon
• Table Grapes
TRANSPORTATION
As we reach end of month, the narrative continues to
be the same as capacity outgrows demand for trucks.
Carrier sentiment was high at the beginning of the
quarter, with rates spiking at the start of the month,
but brokers and shippers are bracing for a slow Q1.
Rates have already started to come down across the
country, and the Chinese New Year is affecting freight
coming out of the port of Los Angeles. This west coast
slowdown can be felt around the country with no
real pockets of tightness. Shippers are in the driver’s
seat, and major carriers are accepting most contract
freight. Carriers who feed primarily off the spot market
continue to struggle to keep their trucks on the road,
thus realizing they have to be competitive to win loads
off the spot market. We are starting to see outbound
Florida volume slowly grow, but not enough to cause
much of a change in capacity/rates. Outbound
southeast as a whole continues to be easy to move
freight out of for both vans and refrigerated trucks. This
week we felt a bit of a pinch in the Midwest and parts
of the south who experienced inclement weather, but
again, high carrier capacity kept any significant rate
spikes from happening.
2
market trends
WEek ending February 3, 2023
Produce (continued)
JALISCO, MX FORECAST
FRUITS & VEGETABLES Bananas
WATCHLIST: Volume is lighter due to weather and higher
Apples, Pears & Stone Fruit
global demand. No quality issues, but we are seeing smaller
Apples: Washington State Apple Crop looks to be around fruit, discolor, and very light inventory entering the ports. Make
100M boxes vs. 122M the last two years and 132M 3 years certain you are staying ahead of inventory during these next 8
ago. With the number of Trees in the ground – this number weeks.
is shocking. The last crop we saw 100M boxes was in 2007.
Mid-April 2022 – Eastern Washington experienced 20-degree Pineapples
temperatures with apple trees in bloom which caused a Excellent quality peaking on 7 and 8cts; larger sizes have
significant loss in the crop. Additionally, cooler temperatures tightened up. The quality is good.
in the Spring with extreme summer temperatures also played
a negative role in the supply of apples combined with two Table Grapes
devastating hailstorms causing some blocks of Orchards not to WATCHLIST: Domestic storage fruit is almost done, and we
be harvested. Furthermore, Fujis and granny smiths are known will see less volume through mid-January. Due to political
for alternate-bearing crops. Last year were heavy crops, so this unrest in Peru, which is causing port delays, we will have a
year both are down significantly. short-term impact on markets which will cause a 3-week
delay. Overall, import volume will remain down, but quality
Pears: This year’s pear crop will likely be down significantly should be normal. Demand is expected to increase as volume
due to severe high temperatures last July and extremely low decreases, and we may see a slight hike in pricing through
temperatures in mid-April 2022. Cooler temperatures in the mid-February.
Spring with extreme Summer Temps also played a negative role
in the supply of pears combined with two devastating hailstorms
causing some blocks of Orchards not to be harvested.
Avocados
Last week closed out at 57.5M pounds for the US, a 13%
increase from the previous week, but there’s still a way to go
before hitting the projections of entering the 70M pound range.
Mexico is halfway through the Normal season, with plenty of
volumes left to harvest. The size curve continues to favor larger
sizes – the percentage of 48s and larger continues to increase
week-over-week. California could start harvesting around 2M
pounds per week in February. However, typically the California
growers can wait to harvest in hopes of stronger markets, so
it is unknown if there will be much harvest early in the season.
The crop will likely favor small fruit in the early season and size
up as the season progresses. The peak in the season volume
is estimated to ramp up in May/June and start to decline in
August.
3
market trends
WEek ending February 3, 2023
Produce (continued)
BERRIES Strawberries
Strawberry volume out of California will remain limited for the
Blackberries
next 4-5 weeks. Fortunately, we should see volume increase
Supply continues to increase gradually out of Mexico.
quickly by the end of February. Out of Florida, volume is down
Domestic supplies remain minimal due to weather events.
due to cold temperatures and is expected to be lower for the
next several weeks. Mexico’s volume is expected to maintain
Blueberries
steady levels for the next several weeks.
Mexico continues with strong volumes toward its spring peak
in late February-early March. Peru is past peak arrivals, and we
will see good volumes for a few more weeks. Volume out of CALIFORNIA CITRUS
Baja will slowly increase through the end of the month. Chilean
arrivals are at their peak, but volumes will begin to downtrend Grapefruit
after this week. Good supply and very good quality out of Texas and California.
Raspberries Imports/Specialties
Volumes will remain lower than expected for the next The California mandarin season has started with good
7-10 days due to a gap in production caused by cooler availability and outstanding quality. Bloods and Caras are
temperatures. Mexico is expected to begin its uptrend towards available, and Minneolas have started in southern California.
the end of next week and hit peak production by late May.
California volumes will remain over the next few months. Baja Lemons
volumes should reach peak production in 5-6 weeks. Good supply and very good quality.
Limes
ESCALATED: Pricing still represents somewhat elevated trends;
however, demand has lost momentum over the past 3+ weeks.
Crossings have increased throughout January, including variable
quality grades. However, this week’s crossings are expected
to decline again due to rain in the main growing region. The
current production cycle is coming to an end; some growers
have already begun harvesting the new crop. The overall quality
and shelf life will demonstrate improvement and peak sizing will
shift towards small fruit. Pricing is expected to increase again
towards early February. Overall yields are expected to plummet
as the new crop is harvested in response to weather-related
trends (cooler temperatures lead to slow crop growth), which
aligns with our seasonal timeline.
Oranges
Navels are showing very good quality, with size structure peak
88/113/72. Larger sizes remain fairly tight.
WEST COAST VEGETABLES
Temperatures in Yuma have cooled again, with wind and
ice present. There is the possibility of ice for the next two
days and a good chance of a heavy freeze Friday. Iceberg
sizing and weights are much improved, and overall quality is
good. Romaine is generally clean, with some fields showing
discolored blister, and green leaf is also looking good with very
little ice damage.
4
market trends
WEek ending February 3, 2023
Produce (continued)
EASTERN & WESTERN VEGETABLES Green Beans
ESCALATED: Recent and prior cold weather have slowed
Bell Peppers
down green bean yields and production in south Florida.
East Coast is producing steady supplies on green bells, while
Supply could remain on the snug side for at least the short
Mexico is slightly behind with their production. The current
term as growers work through plantings that experienced
pricing is starting to reflect better supply levels. The volume is
bloom drop from December’s cold snap. Looking to the West,
primarily in bigger sized and #1 quality pepper with a limited
we are seeing supplies become more limited due to cool
amount of choice available currently. Red bell pepper supplies
weather, and expect this pattern to continue for the next few
are consistently increasing, and pricing is getting down to
weeks.
promotable levels.
Jalapenos/Chili Peppers
Eggplant
ESCALATED: Chili pepper production remains at very light levels
ESCALATED: Florida’s eggplant supply continues at light levels
in the East, with mostly jalapenos and poblanos available in any
as cool temperatures and reduced winter acreage affect the
volume. Look for volume and variety to improve when Spring
volumes produced. Spring crops should begin in April. Until
crops get rolling in April. As for the West, supplies are moderate.
then, we expect a continued light supply.
Crops just need some warm weather to kick things in gear.
Serranos and habaneros are the shorter items of the assortment.
French Beans
Supplies have improved in Guatemala and Mexico, with quality
Mini Sweet Peppers
fair to good.
Stable supply, and quality available loading in Nogales.
Pickles
Steady volume available this week, and quality will be mixed
out of Mexico.
Cucumbers
Market pricing is at escalated levels, however, with improved
supplies out of Mexico, we anticipate a consistent drop in
pricing over the next seven to ten days. Eastern supplies
continue to be limited, with better supplies forecasted in the
next few weeks.
Zucchini/Yellow Squash
Improving supply and quality available in Nogales and Florida
with deals being made on mediums.
HERBS
Labor shortages have affected harvest times and packing
slowdowns on all herbs from Mexico. Both imported and
domestic Chervil production has continued to be affected by
the weather. Additionally, supply is tight on Dill and Oregano
due to the weather. Weather continues to affect all herbs from
Colombia, especially Mint, Rosemary, and Oregano.
5
market trends
WEek ending February 3, 2023
Produce (continued)
MELONS Honeydew
ESCALATED: Honeydews remains in a demand exceeds
The colder temperatures that hit the growing regions have supply situation in all areas (Central America and Mexico) and
disrupted the market. So many weather patterns have affected there is not enough supply to cover the needs of everyone. We
the growing regions that have impacted yields and quality. Cold expect supply to begin to pick up to more consistent levels
temperatures and some moisture immediately after Christmas by next week in Florida, but we anticipate a shift in sizing to
affected harvests for almost two weeks. The past ten days have 6/8s as fruit did not size up during the cold snap. Advanced
seen a significant and unexpected drop in arrivals on the East ordering and size flexibility may be necessary until supply
Coast, but expect some return to normalcy by next week. The increases.
West Coast, on the other hand, will continue to feel the effects
of this disruption of supply until Mid-February. Watermelon
ESCALATED: Overall quality is very nice, we are still seeing
Cantaloupe firm pricing and moderate demand. Nogales and McAllen are
ESCALATED: Cantaloupe arrivals for the end of the week the primary shipping points and mini watermelons seem to be
will see a shift to smaller sizes (9/12/15s) which is also an easing back in price as store sets change and demand drops.
after-effect of the cooler temps. Quality remains strong with Offshore watermelons are limited, but we are shipping a few
good color for this time of year and internal brix levels of 4/5ct this week.
11-14%.
MIXED VEGETABLES
Artichokes
Expect lighter supplies to continue over the next several
weeks.
Arugula
Quality and supply is very good.
Asparagus
ESCALATED Mexican production has improved this week, with
the first shipments arriving at the border over the weekend.
This trend should continue over the next 4-5 weeks. Peruvian
production continues to decrease due to seasonality. High
waves in the port of Paita and Callao aren’t allowing ships to be
loaded with outbound containers. Markets continue to be active
with less availability during the transitional period from Peru to
Mexico.
Broccoli/Broccoli Florets
Quality is very good with good supplies. The desert is seeing
some slightly cooler weather so we could see supplies
affected slightly but no severe shortages are anticipated.
Brussels Sprouts
Good available supplies with very good quality, the market is
steady.
Carrots (Jumbo)
Overall, supplies are improving, although shippers continue
to struggle with supply on Jumbos as sizing remains small in
California.
6
market trends
WEek ending February 3, 2023
Produce (continued)
Cauliflower Napa Cabbage
ESCALATED: Quality is very good. The desert is seeing some Market continues to be very active; quality continues to
slightly cooler weather, so supplies are lighter, and the market improve.
is much stronger.
Parsely (Curly, Italian)
Celery ESCALATED: Supply continues to be light, and the quality is
ESCALATED: Pricing remains very active, although the very good.
market continues a slow downward trend. Quality will
continue to improve. Rapini
We are seeing lighter supplies from the cooler weather, quality
Cilantro is good.
ESCALATED: Pricing is still escalated, but supplies are
improving. The quality is very good.
Corn
EXTREME: Markets remain firm out of Nogales and South
Florida; quality will start to decline as we are now harvesting in
those younger fields that were affected by last month’s freeze.
We are seeing heavy losses and mixed quality, which will be the
expectation through February and into March.
Fennel
Very good quality. Supplies are lighter due to the cooler weather.
Garlic
EXTREME: Quality is good with moderate supplies.
Ginger
EXTREME: Chinese supply will be very sporadic due to delays
in unloading containers and inspecting at the ports. Pricing will
be climbing daily.
Green Cabbage
Supply is improving, and quality is very good.
Green Onions
ESCALATED: Quality is very good, and supply continues to
improve. The market continues a slow downward trend.
Kale (Green)
Supply is steady, quality is good.
Mushrooms
ESCALATED: Quality is good despite supply being lighter than
expected. We continue to see a lack of labor, shortages in
growing components such as peat moss, and other inflationary
pressures. We expect to see this continue to be a challenge
until some of the growing costs can get under control of this
particularly labor intensive and cost sensitive item.
7
market trends
WEek ending February 3, 2023
Produce (continued)
Red Cabbage TOMATOES
ESCALATED: Supplies are improving, but the market remains
Markets are steady. Round tomato pricing has leveled off
very active, and pricing is steady. Quality is good.
due to improved supplies and subpar demand. Roma and
grape tomatoes continue to improve supply wise and are
Snow Peas & Sugar Snap Peas
at promotable pricing levels. The quality has been solid all
ESCALATED: (West Coast) Guatemala’s production on snow
around.
peas is steady, and sugar snap production has improved.
Excellent supply of sugar snaps from Mexico, light out of
California due to rain. A good supply of snow peas from
Mexico, light out of California.
Spinach (Bunched & Baby)
Quality and supplies are very good.
Spring Mix
The quality and supplies are very good.
Sweet Potatoes and Yams
New crop is in full swing out of both North Carolina and
Mississippi, and the quality is looking very nice. Supply is very
good.
ONIONS
The market continues to be flat out of the northwest with
FOB’s holding firm. Demand has been relatively slow over the
past couple of weeks which could create some opportunities
to bring load volume yellows and reds in at cheaper prices.
There is still good size available out of Idaho and Oregon with
load volume on both colossal and super colossal yellows.
Freight out of the northwest fell back down to normal rates this
week, but with winter weather coming up, those may start to
tick back up.
POTATOES
There continues to be good mixer availability out of Idaho,
as well as volume on smaller potatoes (80ct and smaller).
FOBs have dipped a touch over the last couple of weeks as
demand has been a bit slow. We fully anticipate prices to start
to climb back up as we get deeper into the season. Potatoes
out of Nebraska finished up this week, leaving us with one
less shipping area. This will push more demand to Idaho,
Washington, and Wisconsin and likely cause the market to
firm back up. Freight out of Eastern Idaho has been plentiful,
with opportunities to grab trucks at good rates to pretty much
anywhere in the country.
8
market trends
WEek ending February 3, 2023
Beef, Veal & Lamb
Last week, the average USDA Choice boxed-beef cutout declined 2.4% from the prior week, and it was 5.7% lower than a year ago.
Beef production fell 2.4% from the prior week and was 0.4% smaller than a year ago. Year-to-date beef output is running 1.6% less than
a year ago but is a smaller deficit than the USDA’s forecasted Q1 2023 loss of 4.7% (y/y). Spot live cattle prices are currently 13.9%
higher (y/y). Per the USDA, on Jan. 1, total domestic cattle on feed (soon to be slaughtered) were down 2.9% (or 355k head) (y/y), and
cattle sent to feedlots in December were 7.9% (or 156k head) smaller (y/y). Fed cattle marketed (sold) during December were down
6.1% (y/y). This cattle-on-feed report signals that beef supplies should tighten this spring and could support prices, but beef demand is
in question. Per the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, retail beef (and veal) prices during December were down 3.1% (y/y) and the low-
est since August 2021. The USDA is forecasting the 2023 per capita consumption of beef to be 4.9% less than in 2022. So tightening
beef supplies but lackluster beef demand will likely play into a volatile price landscape this spring when beef prices seasonally rise. Since
2018, the USDA Choice boxed-beef cutout has averaged (cumulative) 15.2% higher during Q2 compared to the previous Q1 average
(cumulative). The Average, USDA, FOB per pound.
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Live Cattle (Steer) Decreasing Steady Higher
Feeder Cattle Index (CME) Increasing Short Higher
Ground Beef 81/19 Decreasing Steady-Short Lower
Ground Chuck Increasing Steady-Short Lower
109 Export Rib (ch) Decreasing Steady-Available Higher
109 Export Rib (pr) Decreasing Steady Higher
112a Ribeye (ch) Decreasing Available Higher
112a Ribeye (pr) Decreasing Steady Higher
114a Chuck, Shlder Cld(ch) Decreasing Steady-Short Lower
116 Chuck (sel) Decreasing Steady Lower
116 Chuck (ch) Decreasing Steady Lower
116b Chuck Tender (ch) Decreasing Steady-Short Lower
120 Brisket (ch) Decreasing Steady Lower
120a Brisket (ch) Decreasing Steady Lower
121c Outside Skirt (ch/sel) Increasing Short Higher
121d Inside Skirt (ch/sel) Increasing Short Lower
121e Cap & Wedge Decreasing Steady Lower
167a Knckle, Trimmed (ch) Decreasing Steady-Short Lower
168 Inside Round (ch) Decreasing Steady Lower
169 Top Round (ch) Decreasing Steady Lower
171b Outside Round (ch) Decreasing Steady Lower
174 Short Loin (ch 0x1) Increasing Short Higher
174 Short Loin (pr 2x3) Decreasing Available Lower
180 0x1 Strip (ch) Increasing Short Higher
180 0x1 Strip (pr) Decreasing Available Lower
184 Top Butt, boneless (ch) Increasing Steady-Short Lower
184 Top Butt, boneless (pr) Decreasing Steady Higher
184-3 Top Butt, bnls (ch) Increasing Short Lower
185a Sirloin Flap (ch) Increasing Short Lower
185c Loin, Tri-Tip (ch) Increasing Short Lower
189a Tender (sel, 5 lb & up) Increasing Short Higher
189a Tender (ch, 5 lb &up) Decreasing Steady-Available Higher
189a Tender (pr, heavy) Decreasing Steady-Available Lower
193 Flank Steak (ch) Decreasing Steady Lower
50% Trimmings Decreasing Short Lower
65% Trimmings Increasing Short Lower
75% Trimmings Increasing Short Lower
85% Trimmings Increasing Short Lower
90% Trimmings Increasing Short Lower
90% Imported Beef (frz) Increasing Available Lower
95% Imported Beef (frz) Increasing Available Lower
9
market trends
WEek ending February 3, 2023
Grains
The grain markets were mixed last week with MN hard red spring wheat up 1.6%, but nearby soybean meal futures were down 3.7%
and nearby soybean oil futures lost 2.0% (w/w). The soybean complex was weak due mostly to a wetter weather forecast in Argen-
tina’s main growing regions. Argentina’s ongoing drought has been one of the main drivers propping up the soybean complex for the
past few weeks now so it’s not surprising to see a flip in the weather forecast lead to some losses. The one positive item that support-
ed all three of the major grains was Friday’s export sales report from the USDA. Corn export sales for the week ending Jan. 12 nearly
tripled their total from the previous week and were the third-highest weekly total of the marketing year so far. We’re entering the two to
the three-month window now when corn export sales for the current marketing year usually hit their stride, so some improvement is to
be expected, but that was still a big surprise that helped keep corn in the black on the week. The export sales totals for soybeans and
wheat weren’t half bad either but came nowhere close to corn’s big improvement (w/w). Prices USDA, FOB.
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Soybeans, bushel Decreasing Steady Higher
Crude Soybean Oil, lb Decreasing Available Lower
Soybean Meal, ton Decreasing Steady Higher
Corn, bushel Increasing Steady Higher
Crude Corn Oil, lb Decreasing Steady-Available Higher
High Fructose Corn Syrup Increasing Steady-Short Higher
Distillers Grain, Dry Decreasing Short Higher
Crude Palm Oil, lb BMD Increasing Steady Lower
HRW Wheat, bushel Increasing Steady Higher
DNS Wheat 14%, bushel Decreasing Steady Lower
Durum Wheat, bushel Decreasing Steady-Available Lower
Pinto Beans, lb Increasing Short Higher
Black Beans, lb Steady Steady Lower
Rice, Long Grain, lb Steady Short Higher
Dairy
Last week, CME nearby class III milk futures declined 2.9% (w/w) and are 11.4% lower than a year ago. CME cheese block
prices declined 8.1%, and cheese barrel prices lost 6.4% (w/w). CME spot butter prices fell 2.8% (w/w) and are the lowest in
13 months. The milk, cheese, and butter markets are beginning to experience downward pressure after mixed signals during
the first half of January. U.S. dairy product exports, especially for cheese, have been a bullish catalyst, but the international dairy
markets are heavy. Fonterra, New Zealand’s largest dairy co-op, in its Jan. 17 Global Dairy Trade Auction (GDT), which was the
third consecutive lower auction, showed its cheese price at $2.209/lb., and its butter price at $2.018/lb. Solid dairy cow num-
bers (herd) and expectations of milk production gains this year should temper any notable milk and dairy products price hikes
this year. Although the CME cheese block and CME spot butter markets seasonally increase in Q2, these same cheese and
butter markets can still depreciate in the nearing weeks. Class I Cream (hundredweight), from USDA.
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Cheese Barrels (CME) Decreasing Steady-Available Lower
Cheese Blocks (CME) Decreasing Steady-Available Higher
American Cheese Increasing Steady Lower
Cheddar Cheese (40 lb) Increasing Steady Lower
Mozzarella Cheese Increasing Steady Lower
Monterey Jack Cheese Increasing Steady Lower
Parmesan Cheese Increasing Short Higher
Butter (CME) Decreasing Available Lower
Nonfat Dry Milk Decreasing Available Lower
Whey, Dry Decreasing Steady Lower
Class 1 Base Decreasing Available Lower
Class II Cream, heavy Increasing Available Lower
Class III Milk (CME) Increasing Steady-Available Lower
Class IV Milk (CME) Increasing Available Lower
10market trends
WEek ending February 3, 2023
Pork
Last week, the weekly USDA pork cutout average lost 1.5% from the prior week, and it was 13.2% lower than a year ago. Pork
production declined 5.2% from the prior week but was 3.1% better than a year earlier. Year-to-date pork output is pacing 2.2%
more than a year ago, which is stronger than the USDA’s Q1 2023 production forecast of a 1.9% gain (y/y). Spot lean hog
prices are down 4.6% (y/y). Per the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, December retail pork prices were up 1.4% (y/y) but were
the lowest in 10 months. The USDA is forecasting 2023 per capita consumption of pork to be 0.4% more than in 2022. The
recent weakness in the pork sector has been notable and suggests that demand is waning. U.S. pork exports may be fading
especially to China whose economy is said to be slowing. In 2021, China’s purchases of U.S. pork fell 46.3% (y/y), and in 2022
(through November) they were running 53.6% smaller (y/y). The quarterly pivot model for the USDA pork cutout shows support
at $0.790 (which was already hit and held), so the downside risk from here may be nominal. But if pork demand is lackluster,
this same pivot model hints that the USDA pork cutout could fall another 11.4% in Q1 before seasonally bottoming (and then
rising in Q2 as typical). Prices USDA, FOB per pound.
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Live Hogs Steady Available Higher
Sow Steady Available Lower
Belly (bacon) Increasing Steady-Available Lower
Sparerib(4.25 lb & down) Decreasing Steady Lower
Ham (20-23 lb) Increasing Available Higher
Ham (23-27 lb) Increasing Available Higher
Loin (bone in) Decreasing Steady-Available Lower
Babyback Rib (1.75 lb & up) Increasing Steady Lower
Tenderloin (1.25 lb) Decreasing Steady-Available Lower
Boston Butt, untrmd (4-8 lb) Decreasing Available Lower
Picnic, untrmd Decreasing Available Higher
SS Picnic, smoker trm box Decreasing Available Higher
42% Trimmings Increasing Steady Higher
72% Trimmings Decreasing Steady Lower
11market trends
WEek ending February 3, 2023
Poultry
Last week, the National Composite Whole Bird index declined by 0.7% (w/w). For the w/e Jan. 14, the weekly number of chickens
slaughtered was up 6.2% from the previous week and 0.4% more than a year ago. The average bird weight was 0.5% heavier
(y/y). Ready-to-cook chicken production for the w/e Jan. 14 was 4.4% bigger (w/w) and up 0.9% (y/y). In 2023, ready-to-cook
chicken output is running 1.0% greater than 2022, which is a smaller gain than the USDA’s Q1 2023 forecasted rise of 2.7%
(y/y). The large shell egg market (weekly national average) lost 15.9% (w/w) but is still up 228.3% (y/y). The USDA is forecasting
the 2023 per capita consumption of chicken to be 1.6% larger than in 2022. It’s puzzling to see that rising retail chicken prices
persisted in the second half of 2022 simultaneously when the wholesale chicken markets collapsed. Chicken producers sold
record-high chicken breast and chicken tenders last summer but should be offering lower sales prices this winter. From a
seasonal perspective (and a value perspective), the downside risk for the chicken markets is likely limited (from here). The turkey
breast markets have shown some signs of weakening from recent record-high levels but are still historically costly. The USDA is
forecasting 2023 turkey output to be 6.4% larger (y/y). Large shell egg prices should have further downside potential, but prices
will remain inflated compared to the five-year average going forward. FOB per pound except when noted.
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Whole Birds WOG-Nat Decreasing Steady-Available Lower
Wings (jumbo cut) Increasing Steady Lower
Wing Index (ARA) Increasing Steady-Available Lower
Breast, Bnless Skinless NE Increasing Steady Lower
Breast, Bnless Skinless SE Increasing Steady Lower
Breast Boneless Index (ARA) Increasing Steady-Available Lower
Tenderloin Index (ARA) Decreasing Available Lower
Legs (whole) Increasing Available Lower
Leg Quarter Index (ARA) Decreasing Steady-Available Higher
Thighs, Bone In Increasing Steady-Available Lower
Thighs, Boneless Increasing Available Lower
Whole Turkey (8-16 lb) Increasing Steady-Short Higher
Turkey Breast, Bnls/Sknls Increasing Steady Higher
Eggs
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Large Eggs (dozen) Decreasing Steady-Available Higher
Medium Eggs (dozen) Decreasing Available Higher
Liquid Whole Eggs Decreasing Available Higher
Liquid Egg Whites Decreasing Steady Higher
Liquid Egg Yolks Decreasing Available Higher
Egg Breaker Stock Central Increasing Steady-Available Higher
12market trends
WEek ending February 3, 2023
Seafood
Two seafood items that showed similar price action throughout 2022 and have equally cloudy outlooks for 2023 are 61-70
shrimp and frozen snow crab. Both items set their 2022 highs between the January and February import data reports from
the USDA and both sold off hard from those early-year highs by the end of the year. Nevertheless, both seafood items are
now notably cheaper than they usually are at this time of year. That counter-seasonal weakness could lead to some upside
price potential at least in the near term, but 61-70 shrimp prices usually peak in Q1 before fading throughout the year (so in
2022 price action wasn’t that abnormal for 61-70 unlike many other seafood items). With that in mind, we could see 61-70
shrimp prices continue to fall in next month’s USDA price release. Snow crab prices, on the other hand, usually hit a ceiling
around September, but considering the fact it has basically gone in the exact opposite direction of its seasonality over the
past year, we may not be able to trust that outlook anymore. Prices FAS monthly imports.
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Shrimp (16/20 frz) Steady Short Higher
Shrimp (61/70 frz) Steady Available Lower
Shrimp Tiger (26/30 frz) Steady Short Higher
Snow Crab, frz Steady Steady-Available Lower
Tilapia Filet, frz Steady Available Lower
Cod Filet, frz Steady Short Higher
Tuna Yellowfin, frsh Steady Available Lower
Salmon Atlantic Filet, frsh Steady Steady-Available Lower
Pollock Filet, Alaska, frz Steady Short Higher
13market trends
WEek ending February 3, 2023
Paper and Plastic Products
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
WOOD PULP (PAPER)
NBSK- Paper napkin Decreasing Available Higher
42 lb. Linerboard-corrugated box Decreasing Available Higher
PLASTIC RESINS (PLASTIC, FOAM)
PS-CHH-utensils, cups, to-go cont. Steady Available Higher
PP-HIGP-heavy grade utensils Steady Available Lower
PE-LLD-can liners, film, bags Steady Available Lower
Retail Price Change from Prior Month
Description Dec-22 Nov-22 Oct-22
Beef and Veal Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing
Dairy Increasing Increasing Increasing
Pork Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing
Chicken Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing
Fresh Fish and Seafood Decreasing Decreasing Increasing
Fresh Fruits and Vegetables Decreasing Increasing Decreasing
Various Markets
Last week, the softs markets finished mixed, with nearby Arabica coffee futures up 3.6%, nearby U.S. sugar (#16) futures
up 2.1%, but nearby cocoa futures were down 2.7% (w/w). Cocoa was the biggest item on the week after the Q4 2022
grindings reports were released for Europe, Asia, and North America. Overall, the Q4 grindings totals were disappointing,
especially Europe’s, which dropped 2.7% from Q3 and was down 1.7% (y/y). Both Europe and Asia’s 2022 totals were higher
vs. 2021, but traders were mostly focused on the disappointing end of the year rather than the year total. The path of least
resistance for cocoa prices could be lower at least in the near term. (S1) before April. Price bases noted below.
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Whole Peeled, Stand (6/10) Increasing Short Higher
Tomato Paste-Industrial (lb) Increasing Short Higher
Coffee lb ICE Increasing Steady-Available Lower
Sugar lb ICE Increasing Steady-Short Higher
Cocoa mt ICE Decreasing Steady Lower
Orange Juice lb ICE Decreasing Steady-Available Higher
Honey (clover) lb Steady Available Higher
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