Assessing the First Six Months of the Bolsonaro Administration in Brazil
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Brazil Institute | July 2019
Assessing the First Six Months of the Bolsonaro
Administration in Brazil
On July 1, 2019, exactly six months after Bolsonaro’s inauguration, the Brazil Institute held a
discussion with Maurício Moura, Andrea Murta, Monica de Bolle, and Thiago de Aragão on
the Brazilian government’s performance in the first semester of 2019. The event also served
to celebrate the release of A eleição disruptiva: Por que Bolsonaro venceu (The Disruptive
Election: Why Bolsonaro Won), in which Maurício Moura and Juliano Corbellini examine
how a relatively unimportant, far-right congressman came to be president of Brazil, and
what that means for the government and its agenda.
Paulo Sotero, Director of the Brazil Institute, Brazilian economy’s poor performance and the
opened the event, noting that although the decline in Bolsonaro’s popularity only add to the
current administration has been marked by unpredictability.
“difficult, negative news,” the recent trade
agreement between Mercosur and the Maurício Moura, Founder and CEO of IDEIA Big
European Union offers a positive outlook. Other Data, started by assessing the administration’s
matters of importance from the past six months initial performance based on Bolsonaro’s approval
include the lifting of the United States’ veto ratings and the country’s economic prospects.
on Brazil’s potential ascension to the OECD Twitter has played a central role in shaping public
(a consequence of President Bolsonaro’s visit perception, and Bolsonaro’s media activity—
to the United States in April), and the pension much like that of President Trump in the United
reform bill, brought to a vote in Congress by States—influences how Brazilians understand
House Speaker Rodrigo Maia. the successes of the government.
Sotero concluded that uncertainty has defined Based on polling that asked respondents to
the first six months of the administration, evaluate the government’s performance, Moura
particularly in the areas of foreign policy concluded that Bolsonaro has lost popularity since
and legal protections for education access, January 2019, with an 8 percent drop in those
gender equity, and environmental regulation; who think Bolsonaro’s governance has been “very
and in tensions within the administration. The good or good,” and a 13 percent increase in those
Written by Joshua Kaplan | Edited by Anna Prusa and Lara Picanço
Brazil Institute | Woodrow Wilson Center
who believe Bolsonaro’s performance has bets when he initially ran for president in Brazil: that
been “poor or very poor” since assuming the he could win an election without the usual platform
presidency. In particular, Bolsonaro has become of policy proposals, television and media attention,
less popular among Brazilians who voted for him and traditional party support; and that he could
as a rejection of the Workers’ Party (PT), rather upend the way politics is conducted by revamping
than for his policy proposals. These Brazilians are relationships with the other branches of government.
mostly middle-income residents of the northern According to Murta, Bolsonaro succeeded with
and northeastern regions, whereas those in the the first but has fallen short with the second. His
southern regions are more likely to continue to relationship with the other branches of government
support Bolsonaro. is contentious, and economic proposals are moving
forward in Congress in spite of—not because of—
Moura argued that Bolsonaro will struggle to the government.
maintain popularity given the country’s poor
economic performance. In June, just 30 percent The relationship between Bolsonaro and the
of Brazilians believed the country’s economy Supreme Court remains tenuous. The Supreme
would improve—down from 62 percent in January. Court’s active role in the Lava Jato investigations
And although confidence that pension reform helped set the stage for Bolsonaro’s electoral
will pass has increased by 28 percentage points, victory. However, the Supreme Court has played
the percentage of Brazilians who believe that a more reactive role under President Bolsonaro.
pension reform will produce positive economic The Court acts only if a piece of legislation is
results decreased from 30 percent in January to clearly unconstitutional, or if an attack on the Court
just 24 percent in June. Moura argued that these requires an institutional response. The Supreme
low expectations could be good, as people do Court is “not in the business of creating issues
not expect pension reform to be a “silver bullet.” for the government,” and its responsibility is to
However, Bolsonaro will need to address economic facilitate relationships that will help the governance
expectations soon, given that some 14 million people process move forward.
are unemployed, and it is a rare president who can
maintain popularity in the face of a weak economy.
Moura noted that Bolsonaro’s communication style
is similar to that of U.S. President Donald Trump,
in its reliance on social media, its unpredictability,
and the focus on his base—the people who already
support him—with minimal effort to speak to more
moderate voters. Yet Bolsonaro lacks the strong
economic backdrop that Trump enjoys. Moura also
pointed out that Bolsonaro has spent little energy
trying to forge a strong relationship with members of
Congress outside his own party. Although Congress
is generally open to doing business with the
executive branch, given its power over the purse, the
current administration has “brought the campaign
narrative” to government, contributing to tensions
between the establishment and political newcomers.
In closing, Moura noted that more detailed analysis
on voter confidence and economic performance is
available in his book A eleição disruptiva: por que
Bolsonaro venceu (The Disruptive Election: Why
Bolsonaro Won).
Andrea Murta, Director of North America
Operations at JOTA, followed Moura with an
assessment based on an extensive parliamentary
survey carried out by JOTA. Bolsonaro made two
2
Left-right: Paulo Sotero, Maurício Moura, Andrea Murta, Monica de Bolle, and Thiago de Aragão
The Brazilian National Congress, on the other Bolsonaro has yet to reach the level of
hand, has assumed a much stronger and more congressional support that Lula or Cardoso
assertive role. Bolsonaro’s push to set a new achieved. Still, JOTA’s surveys in the first half of
tone for the relationship has increased tensions June registered a government support index of
between Congress and the executive branch, 85.4 percent, which measures the likelihood that
exacerbated by tweets and comments from the Congress will vote with the government. Murta
president and his sons criticizing the “old way” added that first-term representatives are more
of doing politics. These divisions are apparent likely to vote with the administration than veteran
in JOTA’s parliamentary surveys: in mid-May, politicians are. Additionally, JOTA research identified
members of Congress rated their relationship with 21 political parties as part of the government’s
the Bolsonaro administration as 3.94 out of 10 on base, eight as “swing parties,” and two as
average, which is similar to what JOTA saw right opposition (one being the PT). Policy divisions
before the impeachment of former president Dilma on pension reform has frequently stemmed
Rousseff. The latest round of the survey shows from state issues, which members of Congress
Bolsonaro has recovered a bit, to 4.8 out of 10, due (as state representatives) value more than the
largely to the fact that he is now allowing certain Bolsonaro administration. However, prioritizing
political privileges associated with the traditional state fiscal health over balancing the federal budget
way of “doing politics” in Brazil. jeopardizes the Bolsonaro agenda.
Members of Congress rated the government Murta recognized that one of the major limitations
slightly better for its capacity to govern—4.4 out of of this dataset is its sole focus on support for
10 in May (approaching five in the latest survey). Bolsonaro’s economic programs. Polling on support
However, Murta argued that this is due largely to for social initiatives would look quite different—on
the administration’s “luck” in sharing an “agenda positions like abortion rights and environmental
with the leaders of Congress,” particularly on the regulations, the positions are “far more adversarial”
issue of pension reform. In other words, Speaker in Congress and the Supreme Court.
of the House Rodrigo Maia is moving ahead with
pension reform because he and his colleagues Monica de Bolle, Director of the Latin America
view it as necessary, not because he is trying Program at the Johns Hopkins University SAIS
to help the Bolsonaro government. According to and Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for
JOTA’s analysis, there is an 84 percent chance that International Economics, added that much of
pension reform will successfully pass. Murta noted Brazil’s progress in the past two decades was
that there are pockets of resistance to the reform, due, in large part, to the Real Plan in 1994, which
but that there is no organized, national movement stabilized the economy and curbed hyperinflation.
capable of impeding pension reform.
3
The Real Plan contained “great creativity and great Program for International Student Assessment
audacity”—and it faced opposition from many (PISA) in literature and mathematics. In fact,
international organizations, including the IMF, due regardless of socioeconomic status, 85 percent
to its heterodox approach. De Bolle argued that of Brazilian students do not even reach the
this creativity and audacity is missing from the minimum proficiency level in mathematics, with
economic policies proposed by the Bolsonaro similar scores in literature and science. Without
administration. The pension proposal is ambitious satisfactory education, the future workforce will
and critical to “opening up fiscal space in the remain less educated and productive.
medium-term,” but it will not transform Brazil’s
economy—and the Brazilian economy faces Another concern raised by de Bolle concerning
challenges that go well beyond its medium-term stagnation is low interest rates. Traditionally,
fiscal situation. decreasing interest rates spur greater investment
and thus growth. However, even though interest
De Bolle argued that the ongoing economic malaise rates have been cut in recent years and are
is a symptom of fundamental structural problems, expected to remain low in the near future, there
which she summed up as “tropical, secular has not been a corresponding boost in investment:
stagnation.” The Brazilian economy is barely growing: a symptom of “tropical, secular stagnation.” De
it reached 1 percent GDP growth in 2017 and 2018 Bolle concluded that more creative and audacious
due to bumper agricultural yields, which explains reforms will be necessary to stimulate growth
the economic contraction seen in the first quarter of in the short- and long-term, especially structural
2019. Longer-term trends point to stagnation. economic reforms and strengthening social
programs and economic safety nets.
Declining labor productivity is particularly
concerning. The commodity boom and other Beyond the economic questions, de Bolle
temporary economic tailwinds masked the fall underscored the concerns over the Bolsonaro
in labor productivity, which is now more readily administration’s intent with regards to
apparent. The end of Brazil’s “demographic bonus,” environmental regulations, protections for
which saw the expansion of the working-age indigenous and minority groups, labor standards,
population, is also troubling. These two trends and the reduction of inequality and poverty.
become particularly problematic given recent She noted, however, that the recent Mercosur-
indications of increasing educational inequality. European Union agreement has the potential to
As an example, de Bolle referenced the strikingly address many of these issues. Though much of
low scores of Brazilian students on the OECD’s the agreement has yet to be codified, the section
Left-right: Maurício Moura, Andrea Murta, Monica de Bolle, and Thiago de Aragão
4
on sustainable development is particularly relevant anti-establishment ideologies appealing to voters
to Brazil. De Bolle suggested that the agreement disillusioned with existing governance structures.
could serve to keep Brazil from backsliding on a Aragão argued that this approach is “a point of
number of key issues, through constraining the inflection” for governments across the world: it
government’s space to act. strengthens their support base, while weakening
relations with representatives from the other
Thiago de Aragão, Partner and Director of branches of government. Indeed, Bolsonaro has
Intelligence at Arko Advice and Senior Associate at cultivated only a tenuous relationship with Congress.
the Center for Strategic and International Studies,
stressed that there have been several positive Nonetheless, the situation is complicated
advances in the past six months, primarily the and far from static. The universal popularity of
pension reform bill and the Mercosur-EU trade pension reform could create either constructive
agreement. He also noted other areas of progress, or conflictive dialogue between Bolsonaro and
including the government’s “Economic Freedom” Congress. The more popular support pension
provisional measure, which will support businesses reform receives, the more likely the Bolsonaro
in the future. However, Aragão characterized the administration is to participate in conflictive
administration’s “continuous attempt to disqualify dialogue—which reinforces the anti-politics agenda.
politics” as a key challenge. Bolsonaro’s anti- Yet the successful passage of pension reform,
establishment rhetoric alienates voters outside though it will not lead to an economic paradise, will
his base (as Murta and Moura both also noted), improve perceptions of the Bolsonaro government.
which contributes to declining popular support.
In contrast, former President Lula maintained However, Aragão stressed that the only way for
popularity through expansive social programming— Bolsonaro to advance other agendas—cultural,
even in the middle of the Mensalão scandal (one of economic, or otherwise—is to participating
Brazil’s largest, until the Lava Jato investigations). in constructive dialogue with Congress. If the
Bolsonaro administration chooses a more conflict-
Yet this political style, which undermines support based approach, Congress will likely pass socially
among centrists—anti-politics rhetoric with a positive (yet fiscally imprudent) proposals that
conservative cultural agenda—is also central to Bolsonaro will invariably veto. This will only further
mobilizing Bolsonaro’s base. The approach is similar alienate Bolsonaro’s base of support.
to that of President Trump, who campaigned on
Q&A Session
Q: What is your opinion on the role of income progress in this area in the 1990s, and social
concentration and social policy in Brazil’s welfare programs only began to produce concrete
historic stagnation? results after their consolation into Bolsa Família in
the mid-2000s, combined with several new social
From 2015 to 2016, Brazil has observed rising policies under the Lula administration. Much of
inequality and poverty, said de Bolle. Historically, the Brazil’s success at reducing inequality in the
the research on income concentration and growth 2000s was due to external economic forces and
is mixed—empirical data supports the theory that an increase in the minimum wage. Although the
higher levels of inequality stunt growth, but there is rule pegging wages to GDP growth is problematic
also cross-country evidence that proves otherwise. now, given the economic downturn, it contributed
In Brazil, income inequality has always been a enormously to reducing inequality in the 2000s.
challenge.
The 2015 recession illustrated that policies like the
The Real Plan was one of the major equalizers minimum wage law were not fiscally sustainable.
in Brazil in the mid-nineties. Inflation often acts Since then, income concentration has increased in
as a regressive tax on the poor, so the plan’s Brazil, which likely hinders long-term growth. De
success in taming rampant inflation unsurprisingly Bolle suggested that social policies—apart from
also reduced poverty rates, explained de Bolle. cash-transfer programs—targeted towards specific
However, a series of financial crises hindered populations could help unlock growth potential.
5Q: What is the likelihood of Brazil entering the clear Brazilian businesses do not want geopolitical
“middle-income trap” (due to low mathematics challenges with China, but the administration’s
scores on the OECD PISA exams)? stance remains muddled.
De Bolle noted that few countries have escaped Aragão added that a relationship with China is a
the middle-income trap, but she stressed that such necessity, not an option. After the election, Vice
a result is not inevitable, but rather a reflection of President Mourão stated that Brazil should remain
economic and social policy decisions. Low test equidistant between the United States and China.
scores and educational attainment is a long-term Yet part of the government still believes that Brazil
structural problem, rather than a result of the cannot develop relations with both countries, but
Bolsonaro administration. Education is particularly must instead choose. However, “doing business
important. A low-skilled workforce that receives with China, developing a trade relationship, does
a technological shock like automation cannot not indicate an approval of what China does as an
respond without enormous job displacement. ideological unit.” The Brazil-China relationship is still
Brazil is at risk of falling into the middle-income at a crossroads, but may benefit from the current
trap, unless students are better prepared to enter trade war between China and the United States.
the workforce. Only policies that advance student However, Brazil is not in an economic position to
growth over achievement will transport Brazil’s choose between trade partners.
education system into the current century.
Q: How do recent revelations by The Intercept
Q: What will Bolsonaro’s temptation be to about Minister of Justice Sérgio Moro’s
explore additional free trade following the investigation of Lula—and the non-investigation
Mercosur agreement, and what are your of Fernando Henrique Cardoso—impact
perspectives on the Brazil-China relationship? public opinion of Bolsonaro, corruption, and
democracy in Brazil?
De Bolle hoped Bolsonaro would seek out additional
free trade opportunities, given the success of the Moura noted that most people in Brazil do not
EU-Mercosur agreement. A deal of this magnitude understand what is happening in the Intercept
requires further negotiations, technical reviews, and case—whether it is reliable information or fake
ratifications, but Brazil could immediately pursue news. It is important to recognize that Minister
conversations with other countries, including Canada, Moro is far more popular than Bolsonaro, entering
the United Kingdom, and the United States. Such the government with an approval rate close to 70
trade deals encourage the Bolsonaro administration percent. In the past few weeks, he has lost 5 or
to become less anti-globalist, she added. Bolsonaro 6 points, because he publicly claimed that being
had seemed to become more receptive to building against Lava Jato implies believing the Intercept
a relationship with China—until the recent G20 reports. Though Minister Moro is still a popular
meetings, when Bolsonaro left after Xi Jinping, figure, he now depends more heavily on Bolsonaro
President of China, was delayed 20 minutes. It is and his divisive political rhetoric.
6Murta added that recent revelations complicate opinion. Given the speed of information delivery,
Moro’s position more within the government than users have come to expect that, if a piece of news
outside it. He has portrayed himself as a hapless is incorrect, it will be rectified within seconds.
victim, deserving of protection, which spurred Because of this, the source has become more
protests. Many politicians are personally not in favor important than the content itself. Newspapers have
of Lava Jato, perhaps due to nepotism in Congress. a tainted reputation for months if they publish a false
However, the Senate has begun discussing report, because they cannot quickly revise articles in
measures against corruption that could circumvent print. Additionally, articles that go against personal
judicial authority, which would complicate Moro’s belief systems are interpreted as false sources of
position as a minister within the government. information. The desire to gather information from
individuals that are of similar mind is more satisfying
De Bolle observed that protests on May 26 than engaging with opposing perspectives.
and June 30 were “in support of Moro, against
Congress, and against the Supreme Court.” She Moura added that, to teach students how to
contended that Brazilians have unified around three discern fact from fiction in news reporting, the new
inherently contradictory pillars: defending Moro and PISA exams will test journalistic knowledge. Only
his judicial record implies support for the judiciary education will combat the spread of fake news.
branch, and so advocating for a shutdown of the
Supreme Court is nonsensical. Public opinion is Q: What is the role of the economy in
murky because Brazilians view these revelations determining whether the Bolsonaro
through ideological lenses. Impartial and rational government will be successful and sustainable
attitudes seem to have disappeared. moving forward?
Q: What mechanisms can be implemented for Aragão noted that the economy touches all other
the public to believe accurately sourced data sectors in society. The success of the government
and information? is increasingly measured through economic
performance, because other social aspects—that
Moura noted that only 26 percent of Brazilians are often either ignored or inefficiently addressed—
believe in expert opinion, but 52 percent believe in are not part of the government’s agenda. Economic
family, friends, and information received through metrics cover up social problems that should be
WhatsApp. Being an expert, especially in the age addressed separately, but are instead placed under
of the Bolsonaro administration, which campaigned the broad umbrella of economic development.
via social media, is not beneficial in Brazil.
Q: How can the education system be reformed—
Murta added that, despite continued efforts to using either the Internet or the educational
combat fake news, monitor social media, and environment—to combat disinformation,
promote bipartisan dialogue, none have been considering the government’s interference with
successful thus far. Congress is considering an public schools and universities?
inquiry on the role of social media in elections, but
there is little hope that it will change public opinion. De Bolle noted that newly elected congressional
WhatsApp and family group chats remain the main representatives, like Tabata Amaral, have played an
source of news. increasing role in advocating for educational reform.
However, the responsibility also falls on those with
De Bolle stressed the importance of simplifying media power—university professors and subject
complex topics into language people can experts in particular—to use social platforms
understand. Instead of using technical terminology, to reach larger audiences. In Brazil, where
politicians and educators should engage with more people have access to smartphones than
people through platforms on which they are already sanitation, social media provides a critical platform
active. She affirmed that Brazilians are seeking for translating complex concepts into simple terms.
information and interaction.
Moura emphasized the necessity for Brazilians to
Aragão argued that the cultural era of speed scrutinize the Minister of Education, just as they
and convenience—Amazon Prime shipping, food do the Minister of Economy, and Aragão pointed
delivery services—also applies to information. out the persistence of “ideological poisoning”
People seek stimuli with immediate reward, which in schools and universities. Both the PT and the
creates an environment that distorts fact and current administration emphasize ideology in
7the classroom. Yet, the most successful schools after the 2018 elections, with Bolsonaro as its
in Sweden, Norway, and Finland emphasize nominee. In essence, the candidates are more
educational pragmatism, not ideology. important than the party (and its policies and
ideologies). Traditionally, leftist parties are the most
Q: Could you evaluate the threat the PSDB may organized, likely due to their tendency toward
pose to the Bolsonaro government in the 2022 collectivist thought. Non-leftist parties, in contrast,
elections. Will the party distance itself from the prioritize individual thought, which creates greater
current administration on social or fiscal issues, space for division within the party.
and what is the possibility of someone like
João Doria becoming a serious contender in Sotero added that centrist political actors in Brazil
the elections? are consistently trying to forge a path forward.
There is still a sense of normalcy in politics.
Moura noted that the PSDB is facing serious
conflict, both internal and external. The upcoming Q: What is the role of science and technology—
municipal elections in São Paulo (where João Doria as opposed to education—in advancing
currently serves as governor) will help determine economic growth?
how competitive the PSDB will be in 2020 or 2022.
Many issues within the party need to be resolved Sotero emphasized that Brazil, like Argentina, has
before then. great scientists but little innovation. Encouraging
innovation requires continuous reform to all
Murta added that Doria is the “owner of the sectors, but especially education. Even though it
machine” that is the PSDB, but the original party is a nonpartisan area of priority, innovation for the
base—known as the old guard—does not currently common good sometimes comes at the expense
support him. In fact, they are considering Luciano of personal privilege.
Huck (a television host and philanthropist who
entertained a 2018 presidential campaign) as their For further reading on innovation in Brazil, Sotero
nominee. Murta agreed that one indicator of the mentioned the Brazil Institute’s 2018 publication
2022 presidential election will be the municipal Novos caminhos para a inovação no Brasil,
elections in São Paulo. authored by economist Fernanda De Negri in
partnership with Interfarma, and its forthcoming
Aragão emphasized the general crisis of political English translation “New Paths Toward Innovation
parties in Brazil. The PSDB will only perform as in Brazil.”
well as its selected candidate—if that is Doria, the
party will likely perform better than with another
candidate. The formerly unknown Social Liberal
Party (PSL) grew to be the largest political party
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