Estimated Risk in Educational Decision-Making and Differences by Family Educational Background in Higher Education Choices
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
doi:10.5477/cis/reis.174.147
Estimated Risk in Educational Decision-Making
and Differences by Family Educational Background
in Higher Education Choices
El riesgo estimado en las elecciones educativas y las diferencias
según origen formativo familiar en la educación superior
Dani Torrents and Helena Troiano
Key words Abstract
Higher Education This article investigates risk in educational choices by operationalising
• Educational the concept of estimated risk, observing the existing differences by
Decision-Making social background, and contrasting their usefulness in interpreting the
• Social Background different choices made and the resulting educational inequalities. Data
• Risk from the ISCY Project for the city of Barcelona were used to analyse
those cases that accessed higher education. The results show the
differences in the estimated risk by social background, specifically in the
areas of social and economic risk. Although the estimated risk has been
widely used as an implicit explanatory tool, this study operationalises
and contrasts this perspective as a useful framework for the explanation
of inequalities, and as a useful tool for the evaluation of educational
policies.
Palabras clave Resumen
Educación superior Este artículo propone profundizar en la perspectiva del riesgo en
• Elecciones las elecciones educativas, operativizando el concepto de riesgo
educativas estimado, observando sus diferencias por origen social, y contrastando
• Origen social su utilidad para interpretar las diferentes elecciones tomadas y las
• Riesgo desigualdades educativas derivadas. Utilizamos para ello los datos de
ISCY Project para la ciudad de Barcelona, analizando los casos que
han accedido a la educación superior. Los resultados muestran las
diferencias en el riesgo estimado según origen social, en concreto en
el riesgo económico y social. Si bien el riesgo estimado se ha utilizado
ampliamente como herramienta explicativa implícita, este trabajo
operativiza y contrasta esta perspectiva como un marco útil para la
explicación de las desigualdades, y como herramienta interesante para
la evaluación de políticas educativas.
Citation
Torrents, Dani and Troiano, Helena (2021). “Estimated Risk in Educational Decision-Making and Di-
fferences by Family Educational Background in Higher Education Choices”. Revista Española de In-
vestigaciones Sociológicas, 174: 147-168. (http://dx.doi.org/10.5477/cis/reis.174.147)
Dani Torrents: Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona | danitv@hotmail.com
Helena Troiano: Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona | helena.troiano@uab.cat
Reis. Rev.Esp.Investig.Sociol. ISSN-L: 0210-5233. N.º 174, April - June 2021, pp. 147-168148 Estimated Risk in Educational Decision-Making and Differences by Family Educational Background...
Introduction ing the educational ladder, known as the
vertical stratification of education (Breen,
Educational inequalities by social back- 2001; Gambetta, 1987; Raftery and Hout,
ground have been one of the major con- 1993).
cerns for the sociology of education. Not However, social background inequalities
only because such inequalities can persist are found both among educational levels
over time or become transformed, giv- and within each level. These relate to the
ing rise to new levels or forms of differ- different probabilities of pursuing different
entiation in the educational system, but types of education or of having more ad-
also because they have fundamental con- vantageous educational experiences within
sequences in other areas of social life. the same educational level. It is known
Differentiation in the educational system as the horizontal stratification of educa-
entails a structure parallel to that of occu- tion (Lucas, 2011; Torrents, 2017; Triventi,
pational differentiation in the labour mar- 2011). The type of educational institution,
ket (even though there is no rigid corre- whether it has an academic or professional
spondence between them). This creates focus, and the type of discipline studied are
unequal access to economic, social and some examples of aspects that differenti-
cultural resources. When the educational ate students by social background (Bozick
system plays this structuring role it can and DeLuca, 2005; Torrents, 2017; Triventi,
be seen that, beyond effort and innate 2011) .
abilities, not all students have the same
These two types of stratification, both
opportunities in their educational path-
ways, and social background is one of the inequalities involved in the transition
the key factors of this inequality (Martínez to higher education or those based on the
García, 2007) . choice of a certain educational pathway,
have been documented and monitored
People who are in disadvantaged so-
within various spheres. For example, stud-
cial positions are not as likely to follow
ies are periodically conducted on equita-
the same path through the educational
ble access to all educational pathways and
system as the rest of the population. Bou-
levels based on technical reports framed
don’s (1974) classic distinction showed
within European educational policies; and
that inequality occurs in two phases. In
special attention is devoted to how non-tra-
the first phase, the primary effects oper-
ditional student profiles access university
ate mainly in the compulsory stages of the
education (Bohonnek et al., 2010; European
educational system. They involve the dif-
Commission, 2019) .
ferential acquisition of educational com-
petences as a result of the unequal fam- Within the scientific literature, educa-
ily resources available. This is apparent in tional inequalities have been observed
children’s school performance (Bernardi over time and in different regions (Breen,
and Cebolla, 2014; Goldthorpe, 2010) . In et al., 2009; Shavit, Yaish, and Bar-Haim,
the second phase, the inequality of sec- 2007), and there has been an attempt
ondary effects operates at each point of to build a theoretical corpus that allows
the system in which students must make those inequalities to be interpreted. To re-
the decision as to whether to enter the cap, these theories are located on a scale
post-compulsory higher education level between two major ends or perspectives:
(Bernardi and Requena, 2010; Torrents, at one end are positions linked to social
2015) . Both effects combine to give rise determination that allow little explanatory
to differentiated probabilities of climb- margin for exceptions; and at the other
Reis. Rev.Esp.Investig.Sociol. ISSN-L: 0210-5233. N.º 174, April - June 2021, pp. 147-168Dani Torrents and Helena Troiano 149
end are hyper-rationalist positions that that is, they understand them as choices
presuppose the existence of an unreal in- that manage a risk derived from abilities, re-
dividual with endless information and de- sources or motivations (Archer, Leathwood,
cision-making capacity. and Hutchings, 2002; Davies, Heinesen,
and Holm, 2002; Deil-Amen and Goldrick-
Some positions can be currently found
Rab, 2009). A risk that is ultimately shaped
that interestingly synthesise both by merg-
by different social characteristics such as
ing social conditions with rational choice in
social background. This argument leads to
individual behaviour, and envisaging indi-
considering the concept of risk as a useful
viduals who make decisions, albeit strongly
theoretical axiom to interpret educational
socially influenced ones. Based on Bou-
inequalities.
don’s approach (1974), the so-called Nuff-
ield school and its derivatives has been There are several studies, including that
one of the pioneers in this line of thought by Abbiati and Barone (2017), which have
(for example, Breen and Goldthorpe (1997), evaluated the differences in the perception
Erikson and Jonsson, (1996) and Gam- of risk shown by students according to their
betta, (1987) to cite some of the contribu- social background. They have focused on
tors). some dimensions such as cost, expected
return, and difficulty involved. However, the
According to previous studies, social role of this perceived risk is not often con-
background is related to different inequal- trasted as a synthetic element or as a proxy
ity mechanisms or triggers. There are eco- for resources, abilities and motivations, and
nomic and social resources that individu- its impact on the educational choices that
als and their families can use when making individuals ultimately make.
their choices and facing different educa-
This article is aimed at gaining further in-
tional options to a greater or lesser ex-
sight into this aspect, by providing an op-
tent (Pablos and Gil, 2007; Rahona López,
erationalisation of the risk estimated by
2009) . But even academic abilities are
students, assessing the differences by to
also clearly influenced by social back-
social background and observing if it can
ground, since these are made up of ap-
be a useful tool for understanding the edu-
titudes and competences also acquired cational choices made. A conceptual frame-
within the family that help individuals meet work is provided in the next section as an
school requirements, in addition to their approach to risk in educational choices.
innate abilities (Jackson, 2013) . Some au- Later the methodology used in this study
thors have pointed out that motivations will be described, followed by a discussion
(or their effects on behaviour) may also of the main results.
be different depending on social back-
ground. Social aspirations, aversion to the
risk of losing status, social norms, aver-
Risk in educational choices
sion to debt and an acceptable time ho-
rizon are some of the elements that have Deil-Amen and Goldrick-Rab (2009) de-
been proposed (Breen and Goldthorpe, fine risk as exposure to the possibility of
1997; Breen, Werfhorst, and Meier Jæger, negative consequences while pursuing the
2014; Callender and Jackson, 2005; Gam- objectives that have led to certain educa-
betta, 1987) . tional choices. For these authors, risk is
More or less explicitly, a large part created by the motivations that lead an in-
of these contributions make educational dividual to choose more or less risky edu-
choices revolve around the concept of risk, cational options; and at the same time the
Reis. Rev.Esp.Investig.Sociol. ISSN-L: 0210-5233. N.º 174, April - June 2021, pp. 147-168150 Estimated Risk in Educational Decision-Making and Differences by Family Educational Background...
risk is estimated by an individual based on future by completing the course they have
the challenges believed that they may en- chosen to pursue.
counter, and the resources available to The concept of social risk can also be
meet them. expanded to take into account not only
The individual, faced with this created what the student may lose from their past,
and estimated risk, shapes the educational but also what they may not be able to gain
choices that they consider most appropri- in their future: fitting into a new social envi-
ate to avoid negative consequences or fail- ronment. Indeed, fear of failing to fit in so-
ure. This perspective is clearly articulated cially in the university environment has been
with the analysis of educational differences studied in depth by some research teams,
by social background, and can be an in- specifically regarding the position of work-
teresting and potentially useful analytical ing class students (Reay, Crozier, and Clay-
tool for understanding and predicting be- ton, 2009) .
haviour. As Gil, Pablos and Martínez (2010)
Archer, Leathwood and Hutchings, showed, social background influences
(2002) distinguished between three types the three types of risk through its effect
of risk based on the type of negative con- on available economic resources, on ac-
sequences or failures that people face de- ademic abilities (as studied in detail by
pending on which educational option they Jackson (2013)) and on the motivations of
take: a) economic risk, that is, the nega- individuals (as identified by Callender and
tive consequences derived from the inabil- Jackson (2005) in relation to aversion to
ity to meet costs using available resources; debt). In this way, the greater resources
b) academic risk, that is, failure, including available to individuals of high social back-
emotional failure, linked to the inability to ground make it possible to reduce the
meet academic requirements (with conse- economic risk (failure) reasons; academic
quences such as delay, re-taking years or abilities, beyond the primary effects men-
courses, dropping out, etc.); and c) social tioned, would allow the risk (failure) de-
risk, which the authors define as the risk of rived from difficulty to be reduced; and the
losing one’s identity, and which is related motivations to avoid the loss of social sta-
to the aspirations and motivations of indi- tus would drive the individual to reduce the
viduals. The three types of risk are non-ex- so-called social risk.
clusive and complementary. In addition, this relationship between
The definition of these risks can be ex- social origin and risk is not only produced
panded by considering other theoretical directly by an objective risk of having cer-
perspectives. Economic risk is not only fo- tain resources, abilities and motivations
cused on what can happen while pursuing a rather than others, but also indirectly by a
certain educational pathway, but also once given perception of this objective risk. A
this have been completed. The classic ver- wrong perception can lead to a mistaken
sion of the theory of rational choice on ed- estimate in the direction of overestimating
ucational decisions considers the forecast or underestimating risk. If the direction of
of expected return as one of the main fac- the error is systematic and is based on a
tors that motivate the decision (Breen and sociodemographic characteristic of the in-
Goldthorpe, 1997) . Thus, the estimation dividual such as age or social background,
made by a student also depends on what then this is an overestimation or underesti-
job they think they will be able to find in the mation bias.
Reis. Rev.Esp.Investig.Sociol. ISSN-L: 0210-5233. N.º 174, April - June 2021, pp. 147-168Dani Torrents and Helena Troiano 151
While the perception of risk is expected The aim is to assess the different es-
to be proportional to the objective basis timated risks by social background and
of such risk, it is also expected that it can inquire about its role in higher education
have biases due to social background be- choices. Risk analysis is key to understand-
yond its objective basis. Thus, overestima- ing the relationship between social back-
tion or underestimation biases have been ground and the choice finally made. It is
identified due to differences in the infor- also useful to provide additional tools for
mation available to evaluate them, such the development and evaluation of educa-
as information on what to expect from tional policies that seek to influence the risk
university based on whether the family estimated by students (for example: schol-
environment has already experienced it arships, guidance on educational choices,
(Barone et al., 2016; Scott-Clayton, 2013), etc.).
biases due to the individual’s frames of Two main hypotheses derived from the
reference on what is desirable to do in life theoretical framework will be taken as a
and what is not, for example (Vossensteyn starting point:
and Jong, 2008) ; or biases derived from
a) Students from a high social back-
compensation processes or from recognis-
ground will perceive a lower risk due to
ing that they have a “safety net”, for exam-
the greater economic resources, aca-
ple, having extra resources in case of ac-
demic or motivational skills regarding
ademic or other difficulties (Bernardi and
the university environment and will tend
Onion, 2014; Torrents, 2016) .
to have fewer underestimating biases
The relationship between social ori- (H1).
gin and risk, be it objective or perceived, b) This, however, will be conditioned by the
thus becomes a potential tool for analys- educational choice finally made; other-
ing educational choices. However, there wise, the relationship between estimated
is a general tendency to use the student’s risk and educational choice would be
perceived risk as an implicit reality. Few called into question (H2). This point is
studies have tried to operationalise the risk clarified below.
that students actually estimate from a quan-
titative perspective, as well as analysing its The latter means that it is expected
relationship with educational choices. This that the same relationship between social
is the goal of this study. background and estimated risk will not be
identified in all the educational choices an-
alysed, either because the estimated risk
Methodology has conditioned the educational choice
made on an ex ante basis, or because the
Hypothesis and database context of each educational option influ-
ences it on an ex post basis. In summary,
Following the theoretical framework of the the two hypotheses suggest that it would
analysis outlined above, this section will be expected not to identify differences in
provide the research questions and the the estimated risk by social background or
methodology used to answer them. One of educational context in a neutral model. The
the central mechanisms of the risk perspec- usefulness of this mechanism as an analyt-
tive in educational choices will be analysed, ical tool will become apparent when differ-
namely, the estimated risk. ences are found.
Reis. Rev.Esp.Investig.Sociol. ISSN-L: 0210-5233. N.º 174, April - June 2021, pp. 147-168152 Estimated Risk in Educational Decision-Making and Differences by Family Educational Background...
This is important to define the limita- university or Higher Education Vocational
tions of the study. Therefore, a longitudinal Training Cycles (hereinafter, CFGS) in the
data model that covers the perceived risk fourth wave (2016-17 academic year). They
both before and after the choice is made correspond to the pathways highlighted in
to determine if the relationship between the Figure 1.
perceived risk and the educational choice The Spanish educational system is
made occurs on an ex ante basis or on an characterised by academically tracking
ex post basis is necessary. In the case un- students from the age of 16, a process
der discussion here, it is only covered after that is clearly differentiated by social back-
the choice has already been made. There- ground (Bernardi and Requena, 2010). The
fore, beyond the proposed operationalisa- post-compulsory stage of comprehensive
tion, we can only test whether there is in- compulsory education is divided into the
deed a pattern between the risk and the vocational training track (CFGM - CFGS)
choice made, which is supported by pre- and the academic (Baccalaureate) track,
vious scientific findings, which would then with different connections between them.
lead to postulating risk as a useful explana-
tory mechanism or not. The subset analysed in the study
makes it possible to address the hypoth-
Data from the ISCY Project were used
eses proposed by reducing the variability
in the study1. This is a longitudinal study
that would be caused if students were in-
that follows students in the last year of
cluded who moved forward a school year,
compulsory education (4th year of sec-
students who had to re-take a school year,
ondary education in Spain) over three con-
students who had chosen educational/
secutive years, which make it possible to
work options other than higher educa-
analyse their access to higher education.
tion, and students from higher education
However, risk is only addressed in the
who had followed a different pathway (via
last wave. From an initial sample of 2,056
CFGM). This is important because esti-
cases in the first wave of the study in the
mated risk is not only derived from student
2013-14 academic year, we worked with
characteristics, but also from the social
the 542 students who, having passed their
and educational setting in which they are
Baccalaureate, were in the first year of
at all times, and from their previous educa-
tional and work history.
1 This international project has been carried out in 13
different cities around the world. This article focuses
To correct the attrition produced in this
on data for the city of Barcelona (Catalonia), since an type of longitudinal study, the data were
international comparison is outside the scope of the weighted using the Inverse Probability
data due to the specific characteristics of each edu-
cational system. For more information, see: http://iscy. Weighting method, with a weighted study
org/ sample of 986 cases.
Reis. Rev.Esp.Investig.Sociol. ISSN-L: 0210-5233. N.º 174, April - June 2021, pp. 147-168Dani Torrents and Helena Troiano 153
FIGURE 1. Schematic outline of higher-level educational pathways in Spain and ISCY Project study wave
Age ….15 16 17 18 19
Secondary school University
Compulsory Education Intermediate Advanced voc.
voc. training Training
Others (non
formal ...)
Recontacts Base Line 1st 2nd 3rd
Source: Developed by the authors.
Estimated risk and social background cial aspects (Table 1). When an individual
claimed to be quite or constantly worried
The fourth wave of this study incorporated 9 about any of the items, they were assigned
items that covered the extent to which stu- a higher risk in the dimension correspond-
dents had economic, academic and social ing to the item.
concerns. These allowed us to approach the
The variable used to control social back-
estimated risk in relation to the educational
ground was the Family Educational Attain-
choice made. The items were collected on a
ment (FEA), which provides a higher re-
4-level of worry scale: (a) not at all worried,
sponse level than parental occupation. It
(b) a little worried, (c) quite worried, (d) con- entails identifying the highest education at-
stantly worried. Based on these responses, tainment of the family, based on the prin-
and taking into account the sample limita- ciple of mother and/or father dominance.
tions, they were divided into two groups to Once identified, social background was di-
polarise the analysis: lower estimated risk (a chotomised into two large groups: high so-
+ b) and higher estimated risk (c + d). cial background when a parent had univer-
In order to synthesise the analyses, the sity education, and low social background
9 items were grouped into 3 broad dimen- when they did not. Thus, social origin here
sions, depending on whether they were specifically refers to the family educational
more linked to economic, academic or so- background.
Reis. Rev.Esp.Investig.Sociol. ISSN-L: 0210-5233. N.º 174, April - June 2021, pp. 147-168154 Estimated Risk in Educational Decision-Making and Differences by Family Educational Background...
TABLE 1. Survey items used for operationalising the estimated risk
To what extent are you worried about the following issues?
That I cannot continue my educational programme for financial reasons.
Economic
That work interferes with my education.
That I may not find a good job in the future.
That I may not be able to complete my programme because it is too difficult.
Academic
That I may not be at the right standard to succesfully complete this programme.
That my lecturers think that I am not suitable for this programme.
That I may distance myself from my secondary school friends.
Social
That I may distance myself from my parents and family.
That I may not have the same non-academic interests as my peers.
Source: Developed by the authors.
Students’ educational choice ferent degrees3. In addition, Catalan univer-
sities have started to offer more and more
Finally, in order to internally differentiate degrees taught in English, which clearly in-
the higher level of educational attainment, creases their difficulty.
3 types of higher education were distin-
By combining these elements, 3 groups
guished based on the risk associated with
were defined based on the proposal already
them derived from two main factors: dura-
used by Troiano, Torrents, and Daza (2019):
tion and difficulty. Failing to successfully
complete Higher Education involves facing a) Type A university degrees: these in-
negative consequences in terms of time, re- clude double degrees, degrees taught in
sources and effort. Duration and difficulty English, degrees that take more than 4
are two key factors that can influence this years, degrees with a low performance
probability of non-completion, as they are rate, and/or degrees with an average
associated with the time invested, minimal real duration of more than 5 years. Fig-
resources to face costs, and the level of ef- ure 2 shows the classification of these
fort to overcome them. degrees in bold.
Currently, Vocational Training has a du- b) Type B university degrees: the rest of
ration of 2 years in Spain, while university university degrees.
degrees involve 4 years of study in most c) CFGS: higher education vocational training.
cases, although some take up to 7 years2.
In terms of difficulty, student performance A binary logistic regression was mainly
rates are not the same for all disciplines. used to verify the hypotheses. The prob-
Data from the university system were used ability that there was a high estimated risk
to evaluate the performance rate for the dif- based on social background and educa-
tional choice was thus assessed.
2 Specifically, around 83% of the degrees take four 3 Proportion of credits attempted compared to the
years: 4% take five years, 11% take six years, and 2% number of credits successfully completed, weighted by
take seven years (all of the latter being double degrees). the average access mark for the degree. Data for 2017
Data for 2017 obtained from UNEIX Catalunya. obtained from UNEIX Catalunya.
Reis. Rev.Esp.Investig.Sociol. ISSN-L: 0210-5233. N.º 174, April - June 2021, pp. 147-168Dani Torrents and Helena Troiano 155
FIGURE 2. Classification of university degrees by duration and difficulty involved
Degree
Either a single
DOUBLE OR IN degree, or in
ENGLISH Spanish or
Catalan
MORE THAN 4 4 years
YEARS
LOW Intermediate High performance
PERFORMANCE performance rate rate
RATE
AVERAGE
COMPLETION Average
TIME ABOVE OR completion rate
EQUAL TO 5 under 4 years
YEARS
Source: Developed by the authors.
Results cording to the type of higher education.
While a greater proportion of students of
Differences in educational choices and low social background were found to pur-
estimated risk by social background sue Higher Education Vocational Training,
the opposite occurred for university stu-
In order to verify the usefulness of the risk- dents.
based perspective in explaining educa- The sample did not contain any impor-
tional differences, these differences must tant differences by social background, as
first be described according to the data defined in this study, regarding the types
used. Table 2 shows that the social back- of university degrees pursued. It contrasts
ground distribution is certainly different ac- with other studies carried out in the same
Reis. Rev.Esp.Investig.Sociol. ISSN-L: 0210-5233. N.º 174, April - June 2021, pp. 147-168156 Estimated Risk in Educational Decision-Making and Differences by Family Educational Background...
geographical area, such as Torrents TABLE 2. S
ocial composition by type of higher edu-
(2017), and it can probably be explained cation (%)
by the small sample used, which did not Family Educational Attainment (FEA)
include the entire range of existing de-
High Low Total
grees. However, rather 57than dispense
with the analysis of these educational High-level vocational
26.4 73.6 100.0
settings, we believe it is of interest to training
try to verify whether the risk-based per- University (Type B) 70.6 29.4 100.0
spective matches this educational (non)
difference. If the data used here do not University (Type A) 71.1 28.9 100.0
show differences in social composition Source: ISCY Project.
by type of degree, according to the risk
perspective, it is expected that no differ- Secondly, based on the operationalisa-
ences would be identified between them tion of the estimated risk permitted by the
in terms of estimated risk by social back- ISCY Project, Figure 3 shows its weighting
ground. for each group analysed.
FIGURE 3. Highest percentage of estimated risk by risk type and social background (%)
65.2
57.8
42.5
36.3
28.1 28.2
Economic risk Academic risk Social risk
High NFF Medium-low NFF
Source: ISCY Project.
There are several aspects of interest here. students surveyed estimated a high level of
Economic risk was the estimated risk most academic risk. This is a coherent figure, con-
often found among students at this educa- sidering that students who have reached
tional level. More than half of the students this level have already been subject to a sig-
in the sample said that they were concerned nificant selection process with respect to
about aspects related to present and future their academic abilities (especially students
economic opportunities. This was followed from a low social background); and those
by the social risk of loss of their networks who had not been subject to screening pro-
with third parties or of disengagement with cedures related to their academic abilities
their environment, be it family or friends. Fi- compensated for this with their perception
nally, only 3 out of 10 of the higher education of their abilities (especially students from a
Reis. Rev.Esp.Investig.Sociol. ISSN-L: 0210-5233. N.º 174, April - June 2021, pp. 147-168Dani Torrents and Helena Troiano 157
high social background) (Bernardi and Ce- a minor concern. In these initial years of
bolla, 2014) . higher education, only 10% of participants
Another aspect worth noting is the fact worked, consistently with their social back-
that students of low social background ground. This proportion would probably in-
showed a higher risk in all the types ana- crease as they move on through their higher
lysed. While the difference was minimal in education (some studies suggest that
the estimated academic risk, it was more 60% of university graduates in Catalonia
significant in the other two. have worked while pursuing their degrees)
Table 3 breaks down each of the ma- (Prades et al., 2017) . However, this is not
jor dimensions of perceived risk with the important in the first year and barely consti-
concerns included in the survey. The main tutes a central concern.
ideas previously pointed out can also be
seen here, although some nuances provided The concern about not being able to
in the disaggregation should be noted. The continue with their education for economic
most important concern in economic risk is reasons was the best identifier among stu-
related to work prospects. At the beginning dents by social background, with around
of their higher education, 1 in 2 students 20 percentage points of difference. It is il-
were concerned about the difficulty in find- lustrative that even among students of high
ing a suitable job in the future. social background, who were expected to
In contrast, the problems derived from have greater economic resources, 27% re-
combining studies with a job were only ported that this was a major concern.
TABLE 3. Percentage of estimated risk by worry and social background (%)
Estimated risk / worries High Low Total
Unable to continue educ. programme. 27.1 45.8 34.0
Economic
Derived from simultaneously working. 12.6 14.8 13.4
Uncertain work prospects. 47.6 53.1 49.7
Failure to successfully complete programme. 22.0 19.0 20.9
Academic
Not having the required standard. 19.1 19.6 19.3
Failure to meet lecturers’ expectations. 7.7 11.9 9.3
Distancing oneself from friends. 20.2 17.7 19.3
Social
Distancing oneself from family. 23.3 34.7 27.5
Different interests than peers. 9.6 11.8 10.4
Source: ISCY Project.
Regarding the disaggregation of social that most discriminated between students
risk, it was observed that the concern re- of different social background, with a dif-
lated to distancing from their family was the ference of around 10 percentage points be-
most important. It was the second concern tween social strata. This was the concern
Reis. Rev.Esp.Investig.Sociol. ISSN-L: 0210-5233. N.º 174, April - June 2021, pp. 147-168158 Estimated Risk in Educational Decision-Making and Differences by Family Educational Background...
that could be directly linked to the mech- tion of 2 years, while university degrees
anism of inequality known as relative risk are designed to be completed in 4 years
aversion (Breen and Goldthorpe, 1997) : in- or more.
dividuals from a high social background are Figure 4 shows this for students from
motivated to avoid a loss of status, would a low social background. Economic risks
perceive achievement and completing their were perceived as a major concern by uni-
education as being more beneficial (failure versity students: more than 70% of par-
being the most costly and worrying risk). ticipants within this profile were concerned
This was the third main concern of stu- about it. However, this was not the case for
dents, at a time when those from a high so- students of high social background, who
cial background had reached, but had not were found to have a higher estimated eco-
yet achieved, a higher educational level that nomic risk if they had chosen a vocational
would allow them to avoid downward social training programme.
mobility.
This relationship may be influenced
For students from low social back-
by the students’ main economic concern,
ground, however, relative risk aversion does
which, is related to the work prospects they
not explain the great importance given to
have as a result of their education choices.
this item, since an eventual failure would
Students from a high social background
also allow them to avoid loss of status.
who opted for advanced vocational train-
Some authors have pointed to other ex-
ing were more concerned than their peers,
planations related to the estimated risk of
which is a clear example of relative risk
distancing oneself from the family in order
aversion. They foresaw less promising work
to pursue higher education, by building in-
prospects in relation to their social back-
terests and a way of life away from their
ground expectations to avoid loss of status.
primary socialisation environment (Archer,
Nevertheless, without denying this hypoth-
Leathwood and Hutchings, 2002) .
esis, the same pattern was also identified in
their concern about not being able to com-
Educational choices and estimated plete their educational programmes for fi-
economic risk nancial reasons (Figure 5).
University students were expected to have Table 4 shows that in all the economic
a greater perception of economic risk than risk concerns analysed, there was an in-
students who opted for high-level voca- teraction between the social background
tional training. These programmes have a and the setting in which it was found. In
lower direct economic cost in Spain, while vocational training programmes, the trend
university students face one of the high- that students from a low social background
est costs in Europe (Sacristán, 2014)4. In would perceived a higher economic risk
addition, as noted above, vocational train- was the opposite of that found among uni-
ing programmes have an expected dura- versity students. Students from a low social
background who studied an advanced vo-
4 The direct cost of public advanced vocational training
cational course were 60-80% less likely to
in the autonomous region of Catalonia is around € 350 have a high estimated economic risk than
per year. State-aided private programmes cost below € their university peers.
2,000 per year (the public and state-aided programmes
accounted for 80% of the surveyed students who took These results raise two issues. First, they
advanced vocational training). In contrast, degree pro- do not contradict the fact that students from
gramme fees at a Catalan public university cost be-
tween € 1,500 and € 2,500 per year, depending on the a low social background access university in
field, and more at private universities. a lower proportion than their peers; but they
Reis. Rev.Esp.Investig.Sociol. ISSN-L: 0210-5233. N.º 174, April - June 2021, pp. 147-168Dani Torrents and Helena Troiano 159
also allow an interpretation in terms of the attended advanced vocational training and,
estimated economic risk: they were clearly while failing to fulfil their social aspirations
more concerned with the economic risks of to avoid a loss of status, have an estimated
going to university. Second, these results economic risk proportionally greater than
suggest an interpretation for the situation of expected, which would prevent them from
students from a high social background who making the transition to university.
FIGURE 4. R
elationship between estimated economic risk, and student’s social background and educational
choice (%)
76 71 72
57 54
54
CFGS University (Type B) University (Type A)
High NFF Low NFF
Source: ISCY Project.
FIGURE 5. R
elationship between being worried about not being able to complete an educational programme for
financial reasons by student’s social background and educational choice (%)
50
46
44
42
27
24
CFGS University (Type B) University (Type A )
High NFF Low NFF
Source: ISCY Project.
Reis. Rev.Esp.Investig.Sociol. ISSN-L: 0210-5233. N.º 174, April - June 2021, pp. 147-168160 Estimated Risk in Educational Decision-Making and Differences by Family Educational Background...
TABLE 4. Results from the binomial logistic regression for each item of estimated economic risk (Exp(B))
Worries
Unable to Simult. with
Estimated economic risk Work prospects
continue work
Constant 1.30* 0.38*** 0.13*** n.s.
Educational choice
High-level voc. training 2.38* 2.09* n.s. 2.35**
Univ. (Type A) n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s.
Social background
Low FEA 1.89** 2.26*** n.s. n.s.
Interaction
Low FEA * Uni (Type A) n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s.
Low FEA * High-level
0.20*** 0.40* 0.32* 0.31**
voc. training
Reference category of the dependent variables: main worry.
*** p-value < 0.001; ** p-value < 0.01; * p-value < 0.05; n.s.: not significant.
Source: ISCY Project.
In relation to the different types of uni- dents than among advanced vocational
versity degrees, the economic risk was sim- training students, not only due to the
ilar between them (Figure 4), so the results longer duration of their programmes, but
did not contradict the equal social compo- also to the different level of skills involved.6
sition described above. It was also expected that among university
These models were replicated when students, the higher estimated academic
controlled for university type (public or pri- risk would be found among type A univer-
vate), which was closely related to the eco- sity degrees (of greater duration and diffi-
nomic cost they had to bear, in order to culty).
prevent a different composition by social Figure 6 shows that, although there was
background from explaining these results. a higher estimated risk in type A degrees,
The trends were very similar5. the values found for vocational education
exceeded those of type B degrees. There
were only slight differences by social back-
Educational choices and estimated ground.
economic risk
The academic estimated risk was also ex-
pected to be higher among university stu-
5 They have not been included here because they were re-
petitive. They can be consulted by contacting the authors. 6 ISCED 5A and ISCED 5B, respectively.
Reis. Rev.Esp.Investig.Sociol. ISSN-L: 0210-5233. N.º 174, April - June 2021, pp. 147-168Dani Torrents and Helena Troiano 161
Table 5 shows the logistic models used tween social background and the setting
to analyse the influence of these variables. where students were located. Thus, the set-
The effect of social background was not ting was the only variable that was found to
significant, as could be deduced from Fig- have a relationship with the estimated aca-
ure 6. No interactions were observed be- demic risk.
TABLE 5. Results from the binomial logistic regression for each item of estimated academic risk (Exp(B))
Worries
Estimated Failure to complete Not having the right Not meeting
academic risk programme standard expectations
Constant 0.29*** 0.19*** 0.17*** 0.80***
Educational choice
High-level voc. training n.s. n.s. 2.23*** n.s.
Univ. (Type A) 1.77** 2.10*** 1.67*** n.s.
Social background
Low FEA n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s.
Interaction
Low FEA * Univ. (Type A) n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s.
Low FEA * High-level
n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s.
voc. training
Reference category of the dependent variables: main worry.
*** p-value < 0.001; ** p-value < 0.01; * p-value < 0.05; n.s.: not significant.
Source: ISCY Project.
All students estimated a higher aca- among all social groups. These models
demic risk, specifically in type A degrees. were replicated by controlling for students’
Regarding the worry about not having a academic abilities 7 and the trends were
sufficiently high academic level, it was only practically the same8.
higher in advanced vocational courses
than in type B university degrees. In other
words, in order to make the transition to 7 The indicator used was built from the student’s per-
university, a lower estimated academic formance during the last 3 recontacts in the longitudi-
nal study. In each of these contacts the marks obtained
risk was necessary, but this increased in the previous year were collected. This perform-
when type A degrees were pursued, which ance pathway was divided into “very good students”
clearly points to a mechanism of horizon- (those who had obtained high scores, above 9 out of
10); “good students” (when they had obtained scores
tal stratification in the university. However, of between 6 and 8 out of 10 in at least one year); and
there were no differences by social back- “students with some fails” (when they had failed one
ground, so the estimated academic risk subject, had to retake a year, or only just managed to
pass).
was not useful in explaining the different
8 They have not been included here because they were
composition found at the higher educa- repetitive. They can be consulted by contacting the au-
tion level, since behaviour was the same thors.
Reis. Rev.Esp.Investig.Sociol. ISSN-L: 0210-5233. N.º 174, April - June 2021, pp. 147-168162 Estimated Risk in Educational Decision-Making and Differences by Family Educational Background...
FIGURE 6. Relationship of the estimated academic risk by student’s social background and educational choice (%)
38
32
22 34
31
16
CFGS University (Type B) University (Type A)
High NFF Low NFF
Source: ISCY Project.
Educational choices and estimated from their family. Students from a low so-
economic risk cial background were in general more con-
cerned about this, as they were at a higher
A higher estimated social risk was ex- educational level than that of their environ-
pected to be found in students from a ment.
high social background who were pursu-
The results supported the idea that the
ing advanced vocational training; as their
estimated social risk was different depend-
educational choice would allow not them ing on the combination of these two param-
to achieve the status of their social en- eters. It is a complementary mechanism
vironment, the risk of distancing them- to help interpret why a lower proportion of
selves from their family or friends would be students from a low social background ac-
greater. For their part, students from a low cess university, since the estimated risk of
social background would be expected to distancing themselves from their social en-
have a higher estimated social risk at uni- vironment was 10 points higher for those at
versity, as the status of their educational university. Conversely, it provided an inter-
setting was different from that of their en- pretation of why students from a high social
vironment. Figure 7 shows that these pat- background accessed university in a greater
terns did indeed occur. proportion; as they estimated a greater so-
The logistic models (Table 6) show that cial risk if they opted for advanced voca-
this interaction did not occur for each of the tional training, they ultimately adopted the
students’ related worries; instead, it took profile with the highest estimated social
place for the synthesised social risk dimen- risk.
sion that reinforced the effect based on the Finally, in the same way as in the case
aggregation of the three types of worry an- of economic risk, no differences were found
alysed. Moreover, social background was according to the type of university degree
only found to have an effect for the stu- pursued and the estimated risk by social
dents’ concern about distancing themselves background.
Reis. Rev.Esp.Investig.Sociol. ISSN-L: 0210-5233. N.º 174, April - June 2021, pp. 147-168Dani Torrents and Helena Troiano 163
FIGURE 7. Relationship between estimated social risk by student’s social background and educational choice (%)
48
45 44
39 38
33
CFGS University (Type B) University (Type A)
High NFF Low NFF
Source: ISCY Project.
TABLE 6. Results from the binomial logistic regression for each item of estimated academic risk (Exp(B))
Worries
Distancing Being
Estimated Distancing oneself
oneself from disengaged from
social risk from friends
family group-class
Constant 0.50*** 0.22*** 0.31*** 0.10***
Educational choice
High-level voc. training n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s.
Univ. (Type A) n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s.
Social background
Low FEA 1.63* n.s. 1.81** n.s.
Interaction
Low FEA * Univ. (Type A) n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s.
Low FEA * High-level
0.41* n.s. n.s. n.s.
voc. training
Reference category of the dependent variables: main worry.
*** p-value < 0.001; ** p-value < 0.01; * p-value < 0.05; n.s.: not significant.
Source: ISCY Project.
Reis. Rev.Esp.Investig.Sociol. ISSN-L: 0210-5233. N.º 174, April - June 2021, pp. 147-168164 Estimated Risk in Educational Decision-Making and Differences by Family Educational Background...
Conclusions be also noted, as it stresses the role played
by this social factor beyond the economic
A student’s educational choices are influ- one in educational choices.
enced by their social background, and higher The analysis of students’ estimated risk
education is no exception. The probability that can be a useful initiative not only in terms
a student goes to university or pursues a cer- of the discussion of the theoretical models
tain type of education programme is depend- of educational choices, but also for the de-
ent on their social background (among other sign and evaluation of educational policies.
social characteristics). This results in segmen- The fact that students’ main worry at this
tation in educational terms, which may poten- educational level was their future employ-
tially reproduce social inequalities. ment prospects contrasts with the studies
The literature has provided different ex- on the employment status of the population
planations for this; they revolve around the with higher education qualifications in Cata-
different motivations, academic abilities, lonia: 3 years after university graduation,
and resources of the social profiles. One 90% were employed, and 80% worked in a
of the approaches used is based on the university. Overall, they scored 7.8 out of 10
understanding that educational choice is in job satisfaction (Generalitat de Catalunya,
shaped by the management of the risk de- 2018; Prades et al., 2017) . The improve-
rived from the various factors involved; it ment in educational and career guidance is
conceives risk as the probability of failure. clearly a challenge at this point in order to
These elements determine a risk which, in minimise the extent of this concern.
turn, influence educational choices.
This study has explored this aspect us-
ing survey data that have allowed the eco- Different estimated risk by social
nomic risk, academic risk and social risk background
estimated by students based on their wor- Students from a low social background who
ries or concerns and their differences by were in higher education had a greater esti-
social background to be operationalised. mated risk, thus confirming the first hypoth-
The analysis has also focused on the extent
esis formulated (H1), as can be deduced
to which this risk perspective matches the
from the perspective of risk in educational
choices that students actually made. The
choices. It should be noted, however, that
main results are provided below.
the difference in academic risk was very
slight at a stage where students have al-
ready been strongly selected for their abili-
Students’ concerns
ties in previous academic years.
For students in higher education, it was found Another interesting element was that the
that their most important concern was related concern about not being able to complete
to uncertain work prospects, which was re- their education for financial reasons was
ported by practically half of the respondents. not only one of the most significant con-
This was followed by the worry about not be- cerns, but it was also the concern that most
ing able to complete their course due to finan- discriminated between these social groups,
cial reasons (3 out of 10), which shows how with a difference of practically 20 percent-
significant financial issues are in settings like age points. The finding that 3 out of 10
Catalonia, where university fees are among students (half of them of low social back-
the highest in Europe. A concern about dis- ground) perceived there was an economic
tancing themselves from their family should risk of not being able to complete their uni-
Reis. Rev.Esp.Investig.Sociol. ISSN-L: 0210-5233. N.º 174, April - June 2021, pp. 147-168Dani Torrents and Helena Troiano 165
versity programme clearly makes a case for by social background is similar, regardless
assistance and funding policies, to ensure of the type of degree completed, it is ex-
that this is not —even perceived as— a bur- pected that there will be no differences in
den of inequity in educational choices. social composition between them; other-
wise, this perspective would be invalid.
Therefore, the second hypothesis
Estimated risk as an interpretation of whereby the relationship between social
educational differences background and estimated risk should vary
depending on the educational context with
This estimated risk and its relationship with
different social composition was confirmed.
social background for different higher-level
Failure to do so would mean that estimated
educational contexts has been analysed in
risk is not useful as an explanatory mecha-
this paper. The results were helpful in inter-
nism of educational choices. Risk is pos-
preting educational differences and, there-
tulated as a mechanism that mediates be-
fore, the estimated risk was proven to be a
useful analytical tool. tween the student’s resources, capacities
and motivations, and their choices.
First, the data analysed showed a dif-
ferent social composition between univer- This study also accentuates the interest
sity and high-level vocational training. The in conducting further research into perceived
results led to an interpretation of why there risk among students in the higher educational
are fewer students coming from low social stages. It raises the need to analyse other
background in universities than from other types of risk, including a greater variety of ed-
social backgrounds; even though they per- ucational strategies (various criteria to differ-
ceived a similar academic risk, their esti- entiate between degrees, different forms of
mated economic and social risk was clearly engaging in educational programmes, etc.)
higher, consistently with other theoretical and other inequality factors such as sex and
studies on educational inequality. In addi- parental occupation. The challenge lies in ap-
tion, the results explained why a proportion proaching this analysis from a longitudinal
of the students from a high social back- perspective in order to elucidate whether the
ground engaged in advanced level voca- relationship between perceived risk and edu-
tional training despite this being contrary to cational choices is formed on an ex ante or on
what would be expected according to their an ex post basis, and even clarify which part
social aspirations to avoid a loss of social occurs at each moment in time. A longitudinal
status. For these cases, the estimated risk perspective such as this is the only approach
in all its dimensions was higher even than that can specifically provide relevant find-
for their peers in the same educational level. ings. Using the data analysed in this study,
we have been able to confirm that there is ev-
Thus, the risk perspective makes it pos-
idence of this relationship.
sible to explain inequality trends, but also to
offer an interpretation of cases that do not
follow the expected pattern and are difficult
to explain by using more deterministic per- Bibliography
spectives.
Abbiati, Giovanni and Barone, Carlo (2017). “Is
Second, the data analysed did not show
University Education Worth the Investment?
any differences in social composition by The Expectations of Upper Secondary School
type of university degree. This non-existing Seniors and the Role of Family Background”.
difference was also found in the estimated Rationality and Society, 29(2): 113–159. doi:
risk. When the estimated risk difference 10.1177/1043463116679977
Reis. Rev.Esp.Investig.Sociol. ISSN-L: 0210-5233. N.º 174, April - June 2021, pp. 147-168166 Estimated Risk in Educational Decision-Making and Differences by Family Educational Background...
Archer, Louise; Leathwood, Carole and Hut- Callender, Claire and Jackson, Jonathon (2005).
chings, Merryn (2002). “Higher Education: A “Does the Fear of Debt Deter Students From
Risky Business”. In: Hayton, A and Paczuska, Higher Education?”. Journal of Social Policy, 34(4):
A. (eds.). Acces, Participation and Higher Edu- 509–540. doi: 10.1017/S004727940500913X
cation. London: Kogan Page, pp. 107–123. doi: Davies, Richard; Heinesen, Eskil and Holm, Anders
10.4324/9780203416945_chapter_6 (2002). “The Relative Risk Aversion Hypothe-
Barone, Carlo; Schizzerotto, Antonio; Abbiati, Gio- sis of Educational Choice”. Journal of Popula-
vanni and Argentin, Gianluca (2016). “Information tion Economics, 15(4): 683–713. doi: 10.1007/
Barriers, Social Inequality, and Plans for Higher s001480100087
Education: Evidence from a Field Experiment”. Deil-Amen, Regina and Goldrick-Rab, Sara (2009).
European Sociological Review, 33(1): 84-96. doi: “Institutional Transfer and the Management of
10.1093/esr/jcw050
Risk in Higher Education”. In: American Socio-
Bernardi, Fabrizio and Requena, Miguel (2010). “In- logical Association. Annual Meeting. Available
equality in Educational Transitions: The Case of at: http://www.wiscape.wisc.edu/docs/wiscape-
Post-Compulsory Education in Spain”. Revista documents/wp008.pdf?sfvrsn=2
de Educación, (Special issue): 93–118.
Erikson, Robert and Jonsson, Jan O. (1996). Can Edu-
Bernardi, Fabrizio and Cebolla, Héctor (2014). cation Be Equalized? The Swedish Case in Compa-
“Clase social de origen y rendimiento escolar rative Perspective. Boulder, Colorado: Westview.
como predictores de las trayectorias educativas”
European Commission (2019). Education and Train-
/ “Social Class and School Performance as Pre-
ing Monitor 2019. Brussels: European Commis-
dictors of Educational Paths in Spain”. Revista
sion. doi: 10.2766/180281
Española de Investigaciones Sociológicas, 146:
3–22. doi: 10.5477/cis/reis.146.3 Gambetta, Diego (1987). Were They Pushed or Did
They Jump? Individual Decision Mechanisms In-
Bohonnek, Andreas; Camilleri, Anthony; Griga, Dorit;
iEducation. Cambridge: Cambridge University
Mühleck, Kai; Micklavic, Klemen and Orr, Do-
Press. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1017/
minic (2010). Evolving Diversity. An Overview of
CBO9780511735868
Equitable Access to HE in Europe. Brusels: The
EQUNET Consortium. Generalitat de Catalunya (2018). Inserció laboral
dels ensenyaments professionals 2018. Barce-
Bozick, Robert and DeLuca, Stefanie (2005). “Better
lona: Generalitat de Catalunya.
Late than Never? Delayed Enrollment in the High
School to College Transition”. Social Forces, 84: Gil, María; Pablos, Laura de and Martínez, María
527-550. (2010). “Los determinantes socioeconómicos de
la demanda de educación superior en España y
Breen, Richard (2001). A Rational Choice Mo-
la movilidad educativa intergeneracional”. Ha-
del of Educational Inequality. (Working Paper,
cienda Pública Española, 193: 75–108.
2001/166). Available at: https://www.academia.
edu/942815/A_rational_choice_model_of_educa- Goldthorpe, John H. (2010). “Class Analysis and the
tional_inequality Reorientation of Class Theory: the Case of Per-
sisting Differentials in Educational Attainment”.
Breen, Richard and Goldthorpe, John (1997). “Explai-
ning Educational Differentials: Towards a Formal The British Journal of Sociology, 61(1): 311–335.
Rational Action Theory”. Rationality & Society, 9: doi: 10.1111/j.1468-4446.2009.01248.x
273-305. doi: 10.1177/104346397009003002 Jackson, Michelle (2013). Determined to Succeed?
Breen, Richard; Werfhorst, Herman van de and Perfomance Versus Choice in Educational Attain-
Meier Jæger, Mads (2014). “Deciding Under Do- ment. California: Standford University Press. doi:
ubt: A Theory of Risk Aversion, Time Discounting 10.11126/stanford/9780804783026.001.0001
Preferences, and Educational Decision-Making”. Lucas, Samuel R. (2011). “Effectively Maintained In-
European Sociological Review, 30(2): 258–270. equality: Education Transitions , Track Mobility ,
doi: 10.1093/esr/jcu039 and Social Background Effects”. The American
Breen, Richard; Luijkx, Ruud; Müller, Walter and Journal of Sociology, 106(6): 1642–1690. doi:
Pollak, Reinhard (2009). “Nonpersistent inequal- 10.1086/321300
ity in Educational Attainment : Evidence from Martínez García, José S. (2007). “Clase social , gé-
Eight Countries”. American Journal of Sociology, nero y desigualdad de oportunidades educati-
114(5): 1475–1521. doi: 10.1086/595951 vas”. Revista de Educación, 342(1): 287–306.
Reis. Rev.Esp.Investig.Sociol. ISSN-L: 0210-5233. N.º 174, April - June 2021, pp. 147-168You can also read
